WEBVTT - What's on the 2022 political horizon, with special guest host Brian Goldsmith 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:06.760 Hi everyone. You're listening to next Question with Katie Kuric. 0:00:06.760 --> 0:00:09.760 And no, Katie does not have laryngitis and a kind 0:00:09.800 --> 0:00:13.640 of nasally sick sounding voice. No, Katie is taking one 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:17.040 more week off after her book tour, and I am 0:00:17.079 --> 0:00:20.520 excited to step in. My name is Brian Goldsmith. I'm 0:00:20.600 --> 0:00:25.880 Katie's former producer and actually her one time podcast co host. 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:29.160 Hi Brian, Hi Katie. Well, I'm very excited about our 0:00:29.200 --> 0:00:32.320 podcast today. Brian. How does this compare to other conventions 0:00:32.720 --> 0:00:36.919 you've witnessed? This is much different. It costs more than 0:00:36.960 --> 0:00:42.720 three hundred million dollars to build this little research beforehand. 0:00:42.960 --> 0:00:45.480 And this is named after Gary Hart. No, Phil Hard, 0:00:47.680 --> 0:00:52.120 long time senator from Michigan. So podcasting isn't really what 0:00:52.159 --> 0:00:55.720 I do anymore. I'm now a media and tech consultant, 0:00:55.880 --> 0:00:59.760 but still a political junkie as obsessed with elections today 0:00:59.840 --> 0:01:02.160 as I was back in two thousand and eight when 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:04.240 I was lucky enough to be part of the team 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:09.160 behind Katie's iconic interviews with Sarah Palin. Have you ever 0:01:09.240 --> 0:01:13.039 finished off with any negotiations, for example, with the Russians? 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:15.960 We have trade missions back and forth. We we do 0:01:16.319 --> 0:01:19.960 It's very important when when you consider even national security 0:01:20.000 --> 0:01:24.120 issues with Russia. As Putin rears his head and comes 0:01:24.120 --> 0:01:28.040 into the airspace of the United States of America, where 0:01:28.080 --> 0:01:30.880 do they go. It's Alaska, It's just right over the border. 0:01:32.200 --> 0:01:34.600 So today Katie asked me to talk about what else 0:01:34.680 --> 0:01:37.800 politics were about to head into a new year, an 0:01:37.800 --> 0:01:40.440 election year, a very big one, and I thought it 0:01:40.440 --> 0:01:43.360 would be helpful to look ahead at the political landscape 0:01:43.400 --> 0:01:46.559 in two Who were going to be the players shaping 0:01:46.640 --> 0:01:49.560 the mid terms, what are the big issues and forces, 0:01:49.840 --> 0:01:52.960 and what are the consequences of the elections next year. 0:01:53.480 --> 0:01:56.640 We're lucky to be joined today by two of the sharpest, 0:01:56.800 --> 0:02:00.640 wittiest politicos I know, two of my favorite tech sting buddies. 0:02:00.680 --> 0:02:04.720 In fact, Republican strategist Mike Murphy, who is kind of 0:02:04.760 --> 0:02:08.600 a defraked Republican strategist these days because he's a Republican 0:02:08.639 --> 0:02:11.200 against Donald Trump, but in the old days he worked 0:02:11.200 --> 0:02:15.120 for John McCain, Met Romney, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and many others. 0:02:15.639 --> 0:02:19.560 And Democratic strategist Liz Smith, who has also been around 0:02:19.560 --> 0:02:22.440 the block politically, although not as many times as Mike, 0:02:22.880 --> 0:02:26.320 whom I actually met when she was the senior communications 0:02:26.320 --> 0:02:29.760 advisor to my pal Pete Boutigg when he was running 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:36.640 for president. So let's start by talking about the campaign 0:02:36.639 --> 0:02:41.079 next year. What's at stake? Thirty four Senate seats, every 0:02:41.120 --> 0:02:46.040 House seat, thirty six governors races. UM just very simply, 0:02:46.360 --> 0:02:48.880 why did the midterms matter? And and Mike, let's start 0:02:48.919 --> 0:02:54.040 with you. Well, they met her on sort of two dimensions. One, 0:02:54.080 --> 0:02:57.840 they matter because particularly now we're we're an historically thin 0:02:58.000 --> 0:03:00.360 margin even in the House, and of course we're hide 0:03:00.360 --> 0:03:03.840 in the Senate. So one party will gain a lot 0:03:03.880 --> 0:03:06.440 of power, my guests, as the Republicans will win the House, 0:03:06.840 --> 0:03:09.959 which gives them the checkbook, which will take the Biden 0:03:10.000 --> 0:03:13.800 agenda on domestic policy to a screaming halt on anything 0:03:13.800 --> 0:03:17.200 big and budget driven. The other in the Senate, somebody's 0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:19.520 gonna win and somebody is likely to lose. It could 0:03:19.639 --> 0:03:22.959 wind up fifty fifty, which is the facto democratic because 0:03:22.960 --> 0:03:27.000 the VP can cast a tie. But um, it could 0:03:27.600 --> 0:03:31.320 deleverage the in my view, heroic moderates like Mansion and 0:03:31.400 --> 0:03:34.200 Cinema if the Dems can run up their number and 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:37.240 get tighter ideological control. Finally, I'd say the other dimension 0:03:37.720 --> 0:03:40.600 is the narrative is Biden going up or going down. 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:44.280 It's you know, there's all this bullshit and politics. Everybody 0:03:44.320 --> 0:03:47.480 has an opinion. You can find two different cable TV 0:03:47.640 --> 0:03:51.400 channels or podcasts or whatever. But elections are like the 0:03:51.440 --> 0:03:54.640 Wall Street phrase mark to market. It's the one day 0:03:54.680 --> 0:03:56.960 where the voters get to straighten out all the bs 0:03:57.000 --> 0:03:59.000 and you can see what's really going on out there. 0:03:59.040 --> 0:04:01.960 And the midterms are the most important measure like that, 0:04:02.040 --> 0:04:04.760 other than a presidential race. And Liz, do you agree 0:04:04.800 --> 0:04:08.040 with Mike that if the Republicans win one or both houses, 0:04:08.080 --> 0:04:13.880 Biden's agenda comes to a screeching halt. Uh. It becomes 0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:17.480 a lot harder to implement. And I agree with him 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:21.200 about the narrative, right, it becomes a narrative problem for 0:04:21.480 --> 0:04:26.000 Joe Biden. But I would point to the election right, 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:29.080 Democrats got our asses kicked. You know, I was in 0:04:29.120 --> 0:04:32.520 Ohio in two I worked for Ted Strickland. It was 0:04:33.000 --> 0:04:35.200 one of the few races that was actually very close. 0:04:35.240 --> 0:04:37.440 It was like a two point oh margin or something 0:04:37.520 --> 0:04:41.919 like that. UM. And the narrative coming out of was 0:04:42.000 --> 0:04:46.480 that Barack Obama was dead man walking UM. For of course, 0:04:46.560 --> 0:04:51.360 he ended up winning fairly handily in UM. But part 0:04:51.360 --> 0:04:53.039 of it was that it was a kick in the 0:04:53.279 --> 0:04:59.080 you know, it was I know, sorry, I'm not sure 0:04:59.120 --> 0:05:02.040 what under neutral phrase, by the way, under the new 0:05:02.120 --> 0:05:04.960 rules of the Democratic Party. So it was a pick 0:05:05.000 --> 0:05:08.080 in a dense area full of nerves and it grows 0:05:08.120 --> 0:05:11.599 is great pain. Okay, let's see dot org. But but 0:05:11.600 --> 0:05:13.760 but but let me let me but let me just 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:17.039 say this was it was UM. It was a wake 0:05:17.120 --> 0:05:19.960 up call for Democrats that we needed to go more 0:05:20.000 --> 0:05:23.080 on the offensive, and we needed to make sure that 0:05:23.120 --> 0:05:26.839 we were making clear the choice between Democrats and Republicans 0:05:27.120 --> 0:05:30.599 and really going out and selling our agenda. And the 0:05:30.720 --> 0:05:34.560 one frustration that UM I have at times right now 0:05:34.560 --> 0:05:37.080 with the Democratic Party is that we know, we hear 0:05:37.120 --> 0:05:40.960 every day how popular billback better or Biff or whatever is, 0:05:41.520 --> 0:05:45.960 but we're not out there necessarily communicating as aggressively as 0:05:46.000 --> 0:05:48.599 we could be about these things and about the choice 0:05:48.600 --> 0:05:51.880 that voters faced between Democrats and Republicans. Okay, and we're 0:05:51.880 --> 0:05:53.520 going to come back to that, but I want to 0:05:53.600 --> 0:05:56.640 zoom out for for one more minute, which is UM, 0:05:56.680 --> 0:06:00.880 there's a history of this president's parties almost always lose 0:06:00.920 --> 0:06:03.760 a lot of seats in the mid terms and the 0:06:04.240 --> 0:06:09.320 term exactly. Um. Since nix, the average midterm loss for 0:06:09.360 --> 0:06:12.679 president's party is twenty five seats and it's very closely 0:06:12.720 --> 0:06:15.520 tied to the president's approval rating. That is the number 0:06:15.520 --> 0:06:17.479 of people in a poll who say they approve of 0:06:17.520 --> 0:06:21.839 the job that the president is doing. For presidents below approval, 0:06:21.880 --> 0:06:25.320 which is basically where President Biden has been since the summer, 0:06:25.760 --> 0:06:28.840 the average loss is thirty seven House seats, and so 0:06:29.120 --> 0:06:31.560 you know, even half of that would wipe away the 0:06:31.600 --> 0:06:37.160 Democratic House majority. Um. Is there anything that the President, 0:06:37.279 --> 0:06:40.680 the White House, the Democratic Party can do, um in 0:06:40.720 --> 0:06:44.360 the face of these you know, really powerful historical headwinds, 0:06:44.800 --> 0:06:47.360 or do they basically need to accept that the House 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:51.599 is lost? Well, they My advice to them would be 0:06:51.640 --> 0:06:57.640 to stop fucking up. Um. Sorry, good advice. No, No, 0:06:57.800 --> 0:07:02.000 it's okay, it's okay, we're gonna So here's the problem. 0:07:02.040 --> 0:07:04.240 You're right, and that's the you know, I think, and 0:07:04.279 --> 0:07:06.520 I think Liz is right too. You can over interpret 0:07:06.520 --> 0:07:10.960 the mid terms. Um, it's loaded against the incumbent president, 0:07:10.960 --> 0:07:15.600 particularly in the first term. But that said, when you're polling, 0:07:15.680 --> 0:07:20.000 numbers are collapsing. When you ran as the alternative the 0:07:20.080 --> 0:07:23.480 chaos to bring normalcy back, but instead you've got kind 0:07:23.480 --> 0:07:27.880 of an ideological chaos of your own going. Um, then 0:07:28.120 --> 0:07:30.720 all those life asks of well this is their traditional 0:07:30.800 --> 0:07:33.400 bump in the road, it doesn't tell the big picture. Well, 0:07:33.440 --> 0:07:37.920 the big picture is right now medium disaster politically for 0:07:38.000 --> 0:07:41.640 Joe Biden, a huge exploding doubts and at least in 0:07:41.680 --> 0:07:44.360 the conventional wisdom beltway, which means maybe you've got to 0:07:44.400 --> 0:07:47.600 discount them a little for Kamala Harris. And so when 0:07:47.640 --> 0:07:50.120 you add upon that the traditional trouble you've gotten the 0:07:50.160 --> 0:07:53.040 mid terms, it becomes an amplifier of the narrative. So 0:07:53.080 --> 0:07:55.760 what can of White House do? Um, they can use 0:07:55.800 --> 0:07:59.000 the political power of the presidency in a competent way 0:07:59.480 --> 0:08:03.880 to try to marginalized the losses and make it easier 0:08:04.160 --> 0:08:07.320 for those losses to be defined as historical normal. Right now, 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:12.160 they're going to be defined if nothing changes, as obvious 0:08:12.360 --> 0:08:16.880 result of political disaster for the Democratic Party and the president, 0:08:17.560 --> 0:08:22.000 both ideological in my view. And you know, the increasing 0:08:22.040 --> 0:08:25.720 thing questions about Biden, you know, why why do they 0:08:25.800 --> 0:08:28.080 keep stumbling blah blah blah, And there'll be there'll be 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:30.040 a chorus of partisans who are going to say that 0:08:30.120 --> 0:08:32.440 no matter what he does. But I think most honest 0:08:32.440 --> 0:08:35.640 reporters right now think, well, his phone numbers are collapsing. 0:08:35.679 --> 0:08:38.240 He hasn't hit a home run. The best thing he had, infrastructure, 0:08:38.559 --> 0:08:41.679 got lost in this house slappy fight between the progressives 0:08:41.679 --> 0:08:45.200 and the few remaining moderates. Joe Mansion is running the country, 0:08:45.200 --> 0:08:48.120 not Joe Biden, and he's a he's a week bystander. 0:08:48.360 --> 0:08:51.640 So you don't set up the mid terms to mean 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:55.240 more by the stumble bump stuff that they somehow become 0:08:55.320 --> 0:08:58.240 caught in. Some of us their faults, some of it not. Well, 0:08:58.880 --> 0:09:01.640 let me let me build off of that. Do you 0:09:01.760 --> 0:09:05.760 think there's a stumble bum narrative that's developed around the president? 0:09:05.800 --> 0:09:08.880 Because I'll give you the alternative case, which is, you know, 0:09:08.960 --> 0:09:11.760 he came in and very quickly passed the American Rescue Plan. 0:09:12.320 --> 0:09:14.800 He passed it by part as an infrastructure plan that 0:09:14.960 --> 0:09:18.280 most people doubt it could get done. Uh. The economy 0:09:18.360 --> 0:09:21.840 is roaring back much more quickly than was projected when 0:09:21.840 --> 0:09:25.000 he took office. So why is his approval rating at 0:09:25.080 --> 0:09:29.480 forty or fort Uh? Well, I think some of it 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:33.240 is due to things out of his control. Um, there's 0:09:33.360 --> 0:09:36.360 a lot of fatigue with COVID, you know the fact 0:09:36.400 --> 0:09:41.240 that it's seemingly never going away, and a lot of 0:09:41.240 --> 0:09:43.040 that is out of his control. And you know, he 0:09:43.080 --> 0:09:45.880 can go out there and point out, well, he accelerated 0:09:45.880 --> 0:09:48.920 back getting vaccines to more people. Republicans fought them at 0:09:48.960 --> 0:09:52.240 every um, fought them tooth and nail at every step. 0:09:52.720 --> 0:09:56.320 But as long as people you know, feel burdened by 0:09:56.520 --> 0:10:00.720 you know, continued mass mandates and UM lock downs, whatever 0:10:00.720 --> 0:10:04.240 it is, that, I think that that's going to hurt him. UM. 0:10:04.280 --> 0:10:06.760 So I think that some of the narrative around him 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:09.880 is unfair given the things that he's been able to do, 0:10:10.400 --> 0:10:13.960 which to me highlights why they've got to be aggressive 0:10:14.320 --> 0:10:17.120 in going out and selling their agenda and and selling 0:10:17.160 --> 0:10:19.920 the great things that they have done. And I know 0:10:19.960 --> 0:10:22.320 that the White House is planning on doing that, and 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:26.360 we've seen the White House be more aggressive in recent 0:10:26.400 --> 0:10:31.360 weeks doing that. Um. But another thing is to Mike's 0:10:31.360 --> 0:10:35.960 earlier point, I'm gonna censor myself for once, UM about 0:10:36.120 --> 0:10:41.120 to stop at history here. Mike is less profane than 0:10:41.160 --> 0:10:44.000 Liz Smith. That's shocking up right right. This is like 0:10:44.080 --> 0:10:49.600 Katie Kirk after dark here. So, UM, but is what 0:10:49.760 --> 0:10:52.760 we saw in Virginia in New Jersey that was very 0:10:52.800 --> 0:10:56.320 troubling to me is that Republicans were seen as more 0:10:56.400 --> 0:11:00.680 in touch with voters, as more in touch with their concerns. UM. 0:11:00.760 --> 0:11:03.600 And I think the Democrats allow themselves to get sort 0:11:03.600 --> 0:11:06.840 of thrown off what should have been the core message, UM, 0:11:06.880 --> 0:11:09.880 the message that really voters care about, which is we're 0:11:09.880 --> 0:11:13.240 improving your live We're delivering economic results for you, We're 0:11:13.280 --> 0:11:16.240 trying to lower costs, we're trying to fight covid UM. 0:11:16.320 --> 0:11:18.760 And instead, you know, they're going off on tangents about 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:23.520 stuff like uh, critical race theory and and defending UM 0:11:23.720 --> 0:11:27.080 school closures, which are you know about is you know, 0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:30.959 popular as herpies at this point. So Democrats need to 0:11:31.000 --> 0:11:34.160 get go more on the offensive about the very good 0:11:34.200 --> 0:11:37.160 things that we've done, because again, we are the party 0:11:37.480 --> 0:11:39.839 right now that is fighting to lower costs for people, 0:11:40.080 --> 0:11:43.920 We're fighting UM to get people childcare, tax credits, all 0:11:43.960 --> 0:11:46.880 these great economic things. Republicans are standing in the way 0:11:46.880 --> 0:11:49.560 of that, and instead we're going down these crazy rabbit 0:11:49.600 --> 0:11:51.600 holes and culture wars that we don't need to be 0:11:51.640 --> 0:11:53.760 in the middle of. The other thing that Terry mccauloff, 0:11:53.800 --> 0:11:57.440 the Democratic candidate in Virginia, really tried to do was 0:11:57.559 --> 0:12:02.240 link the Republican to Donald Trump, and that became a 0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:06.520 core element of his message and didn't seem to work. Um, 0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:09.559 do you think that that portends something for the elections 0:12:09.600 --> 0:12:12.760 next year? It does, And I'd be interested to hear 0:12:12.960 --> 0:12:16.400 Mike's Mike's take on this, But I'll just say briefly, 0:12:16.760 --> 0:12:21.000 if you look at eighteen when Democrats took back the House, 0:12:21.559 --> 0:12:24.920 even with all this gerrymandering and everything, we were able 0:12:24.960 --> 0:12:27.640 to take back the House. You look at the ads 0:12:27.679 --> 0:12:31.000 that Colin all Red ran, that Andy Kim ran, that 0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:36.160 Lauren Underwood ranchers Democrats who beat Republicans to take the 0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:40.120 House that year. Right, thank you for clarifying that, Yes, 0:12:40.880 --> 0:12:44.280 they were not ads about Donald Trump. They were not 0:12:44.440 --> 0:12:48.760 hair on fire sort of Lincoln project ads. They were ads, um, 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:52.000 that were focused on economic issues, on healthcare, which was 0:12:52.040 --> 0:12:55.160 the number one issue in eighteen. And I think it's 0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:59.120 incumbent on Democrats to understand that, um, that while the 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:02.960 belt Waite conversation might revolve completely around Trump and most 0:13:02.960 --> 0:13:05.520 people's lives, don't you know they just carefully can pay 0:13:05.520 --> 0:13:09.000 the rails. And the more that we're talking about those 0:13:09.040 --> 0:13:12.040 things bread and butter issues and less we're talking about Trump, 0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:15.200 the better. And I would advise Democrats to go back 0:13:15.240 --> 0:13:21.400 to that playbook. And Mike, do Democrats um have the 0:13:21.480 --> 0:13:26.520 capacity to argue that when they're in charge of the 0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:30.240 country believes we're on the wrong track. Biden owns people's 0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:33.480 perceptions of the economy, which are really bad right now, 0:13:33.520 --> 0:13:37.520 despite the stock market, but despite the headline unemployment numbers, 0:13:37.559 --> 0:13:42.760 some combination of costs, inflation, maybe chaos in Washington is 0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:45.800 leading people to decide that, you know, no matter what 0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:52.280 Biden says, they they disagree with it. Well, the premise 0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:56.800 of your question, yes, I mean Biden is the captain, 0:13:57.080 --> 0:13:59.920 so it's gonna be about him. And in the belt 0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:02.800 Way and the chattering class, it's always about Trump out 0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:05.480 in voter land if you're not operating within the Democrat 0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:09.200 excuse me, the Republican primary electorate. Trump is rear view 0:14:09.280 --> 0:14:12.080 mirror yesterday's news. Why are you still talking about it? 0:14:12.600 --> 0:14:15.640 The biggest problem we have now on the Republican side, 0:14:15.640 --> 0:14:18.400 as we have this kind of cement head bund that 0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:22.640 is scary, terrible, anti patriotic and basically now running the 0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:25.760 House of Representatives. Uh, and we'll run it farther if 0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:28.280 we get in the majority, which is likely, you have 0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:31.720 a larger faction. But their cowards, so cowards don't count 0:14:31.720 --> 0:14:34.360 in factional wark as they hide, they don't fight. But 0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:38.360 the Democrats in some ways have a bigger problem, which 0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:41.360 is because our very democracy. And I don't tend to 0:14:41.360 --> 0:14:44.240 be hysterical about this like some people, but it is 0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:48.720 under threat. Um the Democratic Party is now too important 0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:53.240 for the Democratic leadership class because they're helping cause Trump 0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:57.160 point two point oh, because they want to fight on 0:14:57.600 --> 0:15:01.680 identity and the Democrats are stumbling into culture wars and 0:15:01.680 --> 0:15:05.080 they're holding a weak hand. Morally, they might argue they're 0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:08.080 holding a strong hand, but politically it is a weekend. 0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:13.920 It is secular superiority, mocking institutions, all about identity grievance. 0:15:13.960 --> 0:15:17.520 If you went to Joe Biden's website and by the way, 0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:19.720 I voted for Biden. That's so much I hated Trump. 0:15:19.800 --> 0:15:21.600 You know, I was shaking. I needed a drink. It 0:15:21.640 --> 0:15:24.280 was a painful experience for me. I'm a I'm a 0:15:24.320 --> 0:15:26.760 firm conservative, but I thought Trump should danger to the 0:15:27.040 --> 0:15:28.920 to the country, so I voted for Biden, and I 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:31.760 had hopes he'd stick with his kind of center of steal. 0:15:32.240 --> 0:15:35.680 And So back to Biden's website, if you if you 0:15:35.720 --> 0:15:38.480 went down on the landing page, there were like fifteen 0:15:38.520 --> 0:15:42.960 little iconic cartoons of different groups. Every group's represented and 0:15:43.000 --> 0:15:45.600 the Republican Party. And I'm channeling Mark Lilla here, who's 0:15:45.600 --> 0:15:49.520 a Columbia professor. Luckily for him tenured, he's a liberal. 0:15:49.560 --> 0:15:51.920 He wrote a great short book. I highly recommend the 0:15:51.920 --> 0:15:55.360 Once in Future Liberal after Hillary lost. But they do 0:15:55.640 --> 0:15:59.760 a corporatist in the political science sense of the word, 0:15:59.840 --> 0:16:02.920 a democratic coalition of all these groups with grievances. I'm 0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:05.520 a left handed Native American for Biden, I'm of this. 0:16:05.680 --> 0:16:08.680 I'm of that confederation of groups. We do the one 0:16:08.680 --> 0:16:11.480 big unifying idea Shining City on the Hill with Reagan, 0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:14.560 make America great again with Trump. Uh. That tries to 0:16:14.640 --> 0:16:18.000 unite everybody in that cause. So this group is um 0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:20.880 tells working class white people, holy crap, we need to 0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:23.800 get a group, and then the Trump's of the world 0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:26.920 show up with their racism and their nativist arguments. So 0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:31.920 the problem that Democrats have is getting out of this group. 0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:34.440 Is um that drives in and getting back to a 0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:38.160 unified message about how and middle class economics the Democratic 0:16:38.200 --> 0:16:40.760 Party will help you. And we're back into it now 0:16:40.800 --> 0:16:43.720 because even Biden's build Back Better, which reminds me of 0:16:43.720 --> 0:16:48.280 the slogan of a chiropractic chain um, is perceived as 0:16:48.320 --> 0:16:51.440 cost right now, not benefit when you test the elements 0:16:51.480 --> 0:16:54.120 of it. There's voter candy in there all the way, 0:16:54.160 --> 0:16:56.400 but it's not relevant to what people think about Biden 0:16:56.440 --> 0:16:59.000 really quick. They also think Biden is weak. It's not 0:16:59.080 --> 0:17:01.920 about his eight point policy. Planet's about he's the old 0:17:01.960 --> 0:17:04.280 man watching the house blow up, and nobody will listen 0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:07.320 to him, and that's kryptonite for a president. Unfair, but 0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:10.320 that's the way politics works. We're going to take a 0:17:10.359 --> 0:17:12.280 break right now to pay the bills and we'll be 0:17:12.480 --> 0:17:22.440 right back. You're listening to next question. I'm Brian Goldsmith 0:17:22.480 --> 0:17:25.280 and I'm talking with two of my favorite political strategists, 0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:29.440 Liz Smith and Mike Murphy about the upcoming mid terms. 0:17:29.760 --> 0:17:33.399 Let's get back to it. It is striking to me 0:17:34.000 --> 0:17:38.480 the extent to which performance may not matter. Policy may 0:17:38.480 --> 0:17:41.520 not matter as much anymore. I mean, Biden sign legislation 0:17:41.840 --> 0:17:45.920 that literally sent most Americans a direct deposit of fives 0:17:46.000 --> 0:17:48.600 every month, and people don't know about it, or if 0:17:48.640 --> 0:17:50.919 they know about it, they don't give Biden credit for it. 0:17:51.320 --> 0:17:54.760 He passed this once in a generation, biggest investment in 0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:58.720 infrastructure since Eisenhower, and he got no credit, no lift 0:17:58.760 --> 0:18:02.080 in his numbers. As a result, has politics just become 0:18:02.560 --> 0:18:07.720 us versus them, tribalism, entertainment, disconnected from what's going on 0:18:07.800 --> 0:18:12.000 in the country or what Biden is able to accomplish. Well, 0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:16.199 I think a little bit it has become that. Um uh. 0:18:16.480 --> 0:18:21.280 But again just I think the belt Way conversation was 0:18:21.440 --> 0:18:24.639 very much focused on process. I do not think if 0:18:24.640 --> 0:18:27.760 you go around asked your neighbors, asked your friends, that 0:18:27.800 --> 0:18:30.399 they that they really know a huge amount about the 0:18:30.400 --> 0:18:33.080 back and forth between the squad and cinema and mansion, 0:18:33.280 --> 0:18:37.040 all of that. Um. And it's always important, at least 0:18:37.040 --> 0:18:39.160 to me, to keep in mind that people, I guess 0:18:39.200 --> 0:18:42.520 are very much in the bubble. Um. But we have 0:18:42.520 --> 0:18:45.480 eleven months to sell this just because Biden didn't get 0:18:45.760 --> 0:18:47.600 and I think it's silly to think that he would 0:18:47.600 --> 0:18:50.560 get some huge bomb overnight just because he passed his bill. 0:18:50.640 --> 0:18:52.800 I know it's historic but it goes to what you 0:18:52.840 --> 0:18:56.000 were saying, Brian, that there is a large amount of 0:18:56.000 --> 0:18:58.480 tribalism these days and it is sort of hard to 0:18:58.520 --> 0:19:01.560 break through that. However, over the next eleven months, it's 0:19:01.600 --> 0:19:05.560 incumbent upon Democrats um at every level to sell the 0:19:05.560 --> 0:19:08.080 hell out of his accomplishments and to point out the 0:19:08.160 --> 0:19:10.960 checks that people are getting. And a few weeks ago 0:19:10.960 --> 0:19:15.200 I got dollar check and to anyone of any income, 0:19:15.480 --> 0:19:18.080 that's a big chunk of change. And if people know 0:19:18.200 --> 0:19:21.480 the Democrats are doing this and the Republicans have tried 0:19:21.520 --> 0:19:23.399 to stop this sort of stuff at every sup of 0:19:23.400 --> 0:19:27.320 the way, that is a winning message for Democrats. But 0:19:27.400 --> 0:19:29.639 let me let me just quickly interject, because I agree 0:19:29.680 --> 0:19:31.440 with all that, but I have a big caveat the 0:19:31.840 --> 0:19:36.200 two things. One, if see Biden didn't get a lift 0:19:36.200 --> 0:19:40.359 from infrastructure because nothing ultimately happened. It got passed in 0:19:40.440 --> 0:19:43.639 the Senate, but it didn't get passed past by getting 0:19:43.640 --> 0:19:46.840 through the House quickly, so the White House communication machine 0:19:46.880 --> 0:19:49.960 could have turned on and the thing is perfect for 0:19:50.000 --> 0:19:52.240 a three or four months. Wow, look what just got 0:19:52.280 --> 0:19:55.280 done fast and possibly in d C. Thank your President Biden. 0:19:55.680 --> 0:19:57.399 You know, there's the oldest slogan in the world Governor 0:19:57.480 --> 0:20:00.600 Rhodes in Ohio, Roads and Progress, so he didn't get 0:20:00.600 --> 0:20:04.440 any of that. Instead it became a confusing Washington slappy fight, 0:20:04.920 --> 0:20:08.520 just like before, where the squad was like mad, there 0:20:08.520 --> 0:20:10.960 weren't enough trillions in it, and some guy from West 0:20:11.040 --> 0:20:15.360 Virginia said, and boom, it's lost in that no opportunity 0:20:15.400 --> 0:20:19.000 to hey, I got elected. Trump's gone and I just 0:20:19.320 --> 0:20:21.040 built a lot of new highways and your brother in 0:20:21.119 --> 0:20:23.200 law can get a good union job. That was all 0:20:23.240 --> 0:20:26.240 taken from him. Now. Maybe they have it now, but 0:20:26.359 --> 0:20:29.040 they could have run their messaging for six months on 0:20:29.119 --> 0:20:32.440 a big win. And to your point about issues not mattering, 0:20:32.600 --> 0:20:35.879 they matter less now because the old intermediaries are gone 0:20:35.880 --> 0:20:38.399 in the digital tribal age and the old days, Walter 0:20:38.440 --> 0:20:41.120 Kronk I would say, this is amazing, the biggest infrastructure 0:20:41.119 --> 0:20:43.679 bill ever. Here's what it means to you. Now we've 0:20:43.680 --> 0:20:47.680 got eight hundred channels. Half of them are just insanity 0:20:47.720 --> 0:20:51.439 of one tribe or the other picking everything apart. So 0:20:51.480 --> 0:20:55.879 it's very hard to get the rewards you used to 0:20:55.960 --> 0:20:58.840 earn with real accomplishment out there. So you have to 0:20:58.880 --> 0:21:02.040 be better at doing less doing big things. And hammering 0:21:02.080 --> 0:21:04.919 them in. Finally, one big problem they've got with this 0:21:05.000 --> 0:21:07.840 build back better thing. The elements may test so well, 0:21:08.280 --> 0:21:10.720 but because the nature of the legislative process is to 0:21:10.840 --> 0:21:14.320 shove so many elements in it, no one element gets 0:21:14.359 --> 0:21:17.280 all the attention. If this were the child care bill period, 0:21:17.880 --> 0:21:20.080 it would translate a lot more and help them instead 0:21:20.080 --> 0:21:22.000 of the big bundle of a trillion dollars worth of 0:21:22.040 --> 0:21:26.040 view spending bill, which is easier to call inflation. So 0:21:26.160 --> 0:21:29.640 two more issues that may cut through the noise that 0:21:29.720 --> 0:21:35.480 you both are describing our COVID and abortion, and let's 0:21:35.600 --> 0:21:38.880 let's do one at a time. With COVID, Biden came 0:21:38.920 --> 0:21:41.959 in with a big advantage in terms of Americans perception 0:21:42.560 --> 0:21:45.640 of his handling of that issue. Now people are are 0:21:45.680 --> 0:21:51.560 evenly split, Liz, when you think about the unpredictable future variants, 0:21:51.720 --> 0:21:54.280 is omikrone going to be the new delta or is 0:21:54.280 --> 0:21:56.920 it just going to be a blip? Um our school 0:21:57.000 --> 0:22:00.119 is going to stay open? How do you assess the 0:22:00.200 --> 0:22:04.760 political impact, to put it in purely crass terms of 0:22:04.840 --> 0:22:11.760 this once in a lifetime hopefully pandemic um. Well, I 0:22:11.760 --> 0:22:14.560 mean it's hard to assess because it's very unpredictable and 0:22:14.600 --> 0:22:18.359 we don't know how it's going to progress. However, I 0:22:18.400 --> 0:22:20.760 do think that he needs to learn from some of 0:22:20.760 --> 0:22:24.480 the mistakes of the past, the mistakes that we saw, um, 0:22:24.520 --> 0:22:26.760 you know, early on in the Trump administration, and not 0:22:26.840 --> 0:22:30.639 repeat them, you know, not uh you know. And Democrats 0:22:30.720 --> 0:22:34.200 yet and this isn't just Biden, this is Democrats at large. 0:22:34.800 --> 0:22:37.119 Is to not you know, rush to close schools. I 0:22:37.200 --> 0:22:40.960 think that the school closures were disaster, the impacts of 0:22:40.960 --> 0:22:42.840 which are going to be felt for years and years 0:22:42.840 --> 0:22:47.040 and years in terms of kids, mental health, UM, economic 0:22:47.080 --> 0:22:49.600 impact on families, all of that. So to learn from 0:22:49.600 --> 0:22:52.520 the mistakes of the past. But to you know, one 0:22:52.560 --> 0:22:55.240 thing that I was hardened by was when the news 0:22:55.320 --> 0:23:00.159 of the mecrum UM variant came out. He responds it 0:23:00.240 --> 0:23:02.120 right away, and he was on top of it and 0:23:02.240 --> 0:23:05.480 showed that his administration was taking it very seriously. That's 0:23:05.520 --> 0:23:08.280 not something that the Trump administration was doing, you know. 0:23:08.359 --> 0:23:12.320 But he's still gonna get punished, um for these things 0:23:12.320 --> 0:23:14.719 that are average to control because there is a lot 0:23:14.800 --> 0:23:18.159