Speaker 1: Hi everyone. You're listening to next Question with Katie Kuric.
Speaker 1: And no, Katie does not have laryngitis and a kind
Speaker 1: of nasally sick sounding voice. No, Katie is taking one
Speaker 1: more week off after her book tour, and I am
Speaker 1: excited to step in. My name is Brian Goldsmith. I'm
Speaker 1: Katie's former producer and actually her one time podcast co host.
Speaker 1: Hi Brian, Hi Katie. Well, I'm very excited about our
Speaker 1: podcast today. Brian. How does this compare to other conventions
Speaker 1: you've witnessed? This is much different. It costs more than
Speaker 1: three hundred million dollars to build this little research beforehand.
Speaker 1: And this is named after Gary Hart. No, Phil Hard,
Speaker 1: long time senator from Michigan. So podcasting isn't really what
Speaker 1: I do anymore. I'm now a media and tech consultant,
Speaker 1: but still a political junkie as obsessed with elections today
Speaker 1: as I was back in two thousand and eight when
Speaker 1: I was lucky enough to be part of the team
Speaker 1: behind Katie's iconic interviews with Sarah Palin. Have you ever
Speaker 1: finished off with any negotiations, for example, with the Russians?
Speaker 1: We have trade missions back and forth. We we do
Speaker 1: It's very important when when you consider even national security
Speaker 1: issues with Russia. As Putin rears his head and comes
Speaker 1: into the airspace of the United States of America, where
Speaker 1: do they go. It's Alaska, It's just right over the border.
Speaker 1: So today Katie asked me to talk about what else
Speaker 1: politics were about to head into a new year, an
Speaker 1: election year, a very big one, and I thought it
Speaker 1: would be helpful to look ahead at the political landscape
Speaker 1: in two Who were going to be the players shaping
Speaker 1: the mid terms, what are the big issues and forces,
Speaker 1: and what are the consequences of the elections next year.
Speaker 1: We're lucky to be joined today by two of the sharpest,
Speaker 1: wittiest politicos I know, two of my favorite tech sting buddies.
Speaker 1: In fact, Republican strategist Mike Murphy, who is kind of
Speaker 1: a defraked Republican strategist these days because he's a Republican
Speaker 1: against Donald Trump, but in the old days he worked
Speaker 1: for John McCain, Met Romney, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and many others.
Speaker 1: And Democratic strategist Liz Smith, who has also been around
Speaker 1: the block politically, although not as many times as Mike,
Speaker 1: whom I actually met when she was the senior communications
Speaker 1: advisor to my pal Pete Boutigg when he was running
Speaker 1: for president. So let's start by talking about the campaign
Speaker 1: next year. What's at stake? Thirty four Senate seats, every
Speaker 1: House seat, thirty six governors races. UM just very simply,
Speaker 1: why did the midterms matter? And and Mike, let's start
Speaker 1: with you. Well, they met her on sort of two dimensions. One,
Speaker 1: they matter because particularly now we're we're an historically thin
Speaker 1: margin even in the House, and of course we're hide
Speaker 1: in the Senate. So one party will gain a lot
Speaker 1: of power, my guests, as the Republicans will win the House,
Speaker 1: which gives them the checkbook, which will take the Biden
Speaker 1: agenda on domestic policy to a screaming halt on anything
Speaker 1: big and budget driven. The other in the Senate, somebody's
Speaker 1: gonna win and somebody is likely to lose. It could
Speaker 1: wind up fifty fifty, which is the facto democratic because
Speaker 1: the VP can cast a tie. But um, it could
Speaker 1: deleverage the in my view, heroic moderates like Mansion and
Speaker 1: Cinema if the Dems can run up their number and
Speaker 1: get tighter ideological control. Finally, I'd say the other dimension
Speaker 1: is the narrative is Biden going up or going down.
Speaker 1: It's you know, there's all this bullshit and politics. Everybody
Speaker 1: has an opinion. You can find two different cable TV
Speaker 1: channels or podcasts or whatever. But elections are like the
Speaker 1: Wall Street phrase mark to market. It's the one day
Speaker 1: where the voters get to straighten out all the bs
Speaker 1: and you can see what's really going on out there.
Speaker 1: And the midterms are the most important measure like that,
Speaker 1: other than a presidential race. And Liz, do you agree
Speaker 1: with Mike that if the Republicans win one or both houses,
Speaker 1: Biden's agenda comes to a screeching halt. Uh. It becomes
Speaker 1: a lot harder to implement. And I agree with him
Speaker 1: about the narrative, right, it becomes a narrative problem for
Speaker 1: Joe Biden. But I would point to the election right,
Speaker 1: Democrats got our asses kicked. You know, I was in
Speaker 1: Ohio in two I worked for Ted Strickland. It was
Speaker 1: one of the few races that was actually very close.
Speaker 1: It was like a two point oh margin or something
Speaker 1: like that. UM. And the narrative coming out of was
Speaker 1: that Barack Obama was dead man walking UM. For of course,
Speaker 1: he ended up winning fairly handily in UM. But part
Speaker 1: of it was that it was a kick in the
Speaker 1: you know, it was I know, sorry, I'm not sure
Speaker 1: what under neutral phrase, by the way, under the new
Speaker 1: rules of the Democratic Party. So it was a pick
Speaker 1: in a dense area full of nerves and it grows
Speaker 1: is great pain. Okay, let's see dot org. But but
Speaker 1: but but let me let me but let me just
Speaker 1: say this was it was UM. It was a wake
Speaker 1: up call for Democrats that we needed to go more
Speaker 1: on the offensive, and we needed to make sure that
Speaker 1: we were making clear the choice between Democrats and Republicans
Speaker 1: and really going out and selling our agenda. And the
Speaker 1: one frustration that UM I have at times right now
Speaker 1: with the Democratic Party is that we know, we hear
Speaker 1: every day how popular billback better or Biff or whatever is,
Speaker 1: but we're not out there necessarily communicating as aggressively as
Speaker 1: we could be about these things and about the choice
Speaker 1: that voters faced between Democrats and Republicans. Okay, and we're
Speaker 1: going to come back to that, but I want to
Speaker 1: zoom out for for one more minute, which is UM,
Speaker 1: there's a history of this president's parties almost always lose
Speaker 1: a lot of seats in the mid terms and the
Speaker 1: term exactly. Um. Since nix, the average midterm loss for
Speaker 1: president's party is twenty five seats and it's very closely
Speaker 1: tied to the president's approval rating. That is the number
Speaker 1: of people in a poll who say they approve of
Speaker 1: the job that the president is doing. For presidents below approval,
Speaker 1: which is basically where President Biden has been since the summer,
Speaker 1: the average loss is thirty seven House seats, and so
Speaker 1: you know, even half of that would wipe away the
Speaker 1: Democratic House majority. Um. Is there anything that the President,
Speaker 1: the White House, the Democratic Party can do, um in
Speaker 1: the face of these you know, really powerful historical headwinds,
Speaker 1: or do they basically need to accept that the House
Speaker 1: is lost? Well, they My advice to them would be
Speaker 1: to stop fucking up. Um. Sorry, good advice. No, No,
Speaker 1: it's okay, it's okay, we're gonna So here's the problem.
Speaker 1: You're right, and that's the you know, I think, and
Speaker 1: I think Liz is right too. You can over interpret
Speaker 1: the mid terms. Um, it's loaded against the incumbent president,
Speaker 1: particularly in the first term. But that said, when you're polling,
Speaker 1: numbers are collapsing. When you ran as the alternative the
Speaker 1: chaos to bring normalcy back, but instead you've got kind
Speaker 1: of an ideological chaos of your own going. Um, then
Speaker 1: all those life asks of well this is their traditional
Speaker 1: bump in the road, it doesn't tell the big picture. Well,
Speaker 1: the big picture is right now medium disaster politically for
Speaker 1: Joe Biden, a huge exploding doubts and at least in
Speaker 1: the conventional wisdom beltway, which means maybe you've got to
Speaker 1: discount them a little for Kamala Harris. And so when
Speaker 1: you add upon that the traditional trouble you've gotten the
Speaker 1: mid terms, it becomes an amplifier of the narrative. So
Speaker 1: what can of White House do? Um, they can use
Speaker 1: the political power of the presidency in a competent way
Speaker 1: to try to marginalized the losses and make it easier
Speaker 1: for those losses to be defined as historical normal. Right now,
Speaker 1: they're going to be defined if nothing changes, as obvious
Speaker 1: result of political disaster for the Democratic Party and the president,
Speaker 1: both ideological in my view. And you know, the increasing
Speaker 1: thing questions about Biden, you know, why why do they
Speaker 1: keep stumbling blah blah blah, And there'll be there'll be
Speaker 1: a chorus of partisans who are going to say that
Speaker 1: no matter what he does. But I think most honest
Speaker 1: reporters right now think, well, his phone numbers are collapsing.
Speaker 1: He hasn't hit a home run. The best thing he had, infrastructure,
Speaker 1: got lost in this house slappy fight between the progressives
Speaker 1: and the few remaining moderates. Joe Mansion is running the country,
Speaker 1: not Joe Biden, and he's a he's a week bystander.
Speaker 1: So you don't set up the mid terms to mean
Speaker 1: more by the stumble bump stuff that they somehow become
Speaker 1: caught in. Some of us their faults, some of it not. Well,
Speaker 1: let me let me build off of that. Do you
Speaker 1: think there's a stumble bum narrative that's developed around the president?
Speaker 1: Because I'll give you the alternative case, which is, you know,
Speaker 1: he came in and very quickly passed the American Rescue Plan.
Speaker 1: He passed it by part as an infrastructure plan that
Speaker 1: most people doubt it could get done. Uh. The economy
Speaker 1: is roaring back much more quickly than was projected when
Speaker 1: he took office. So why is his approval rating at
Speaker 1: forty or fort Uh? Well, I think some of it
Speaker 1: is due to things out of his control. Um, there's
Speaker 1: a lot of fatigue with COVID, you know the fact
Speaker 1: that it's seemingly never going away, and a lot of
Speaker 1: that is out of his control. And you know, he
Speaker 1: can go out there and point out, well, he accelerated
Speaker 1: back getting vaccines to more people. Republicans fought them at
Speaker 1: every um, fought them tooth and nail at every step.
Speaker 1: But as long as people you know, feel burdened by
Speaker 1: you know, continued mass mandates and UM lock downs, whatever
Speaker 1: it is, that, I think that that's going to hurt him. UM.
Speaker 1: So I think that some of the narrative around him
Speaker 1: is unfair given the things that he's been able to do,
Speaker 1: which to me highlights why they've got to be aggressive
Speaker 1: in going out and selling their agenda and and selling
Speaker 1: the great things that they have done. And I know
Speaker 1: that the White House is planning on doing that, and
Speaker 1: we've seen the White House be more aggressive in recent
Speaker 1: weeks doing that. Um. But another thing is to Mike's
Speaker 1: earlier point, I'm gonna censor myself for once, UM about
Speaker 1: to stop at history here. Mike is less profane than
Speaker 1: Liz Smith. That's shocking up right right. This is like
Speaker 1: Katie Kirk after dark here. So, UM, but is what
Speaker 1: we saw in Virginia in New Jersey that was very
Speaker 1: troubling to me is that Republicans were seen as more
Speaker 1: in touch with voters, as more in touch with their concerns. UM.
Speaker 1: And I think the Democrats allow themselves to get sort
Speaker 1: of thrown off what should have been the core message, UM,
Speaker 1: the message that really voters care about, which is we're
Speaker 1: improving your live We're delivering economic results for you, We're
Speaker 1: trying to lower costs, we're trying to fight covid UM.
Speaker 1: And instead, you know, they're going off on tangents about
Speaker 1: stuff like uh, critical race theory and and defending UM
Speaker 1: school closures, which are you know about is you know,
Speaker 1: popular as herpies at this point. So Democrats need to
Speaker 1: get go more on the offensive about the very good
Speaker 1: things that we've done, because again, we are the party
Speaker 1: right now that is fighting to lower costs for people,
Speaker 1: We're fighting UM to get people childcare, tax credits, all
Speaker 1: these great economic things. Republicans are standing in the way
Speaker 1: of that, and instead we're going down these crazy rabbit
Speaker 1: holes and culture wars that we don't need to be
Speaker 1: in the middle of. The other thing that Terry mccauloff,
Speaker 1: the Democratic candidate in Virginia, really tried to do was
Speaker 1: link the Republican to Donald Trump, and that became a
Speaker 1: core element of his message and didn't seem to work. Um,
Speaker 1: do you think that that portends something for the elections
Speaker 1: next year? It does, And I'd be interested to hear
Speaker 1: Mike's Mike's take on this, But I'll just say briefly,
Speaker 1: if you look at eighteen when Democrats took back the House,
Speaker 1: even with all this gerrymandering and everything, we were able
Speaker 1: to take back the House. You look at the ads
Speaker 1: that Colin all Red ran, that Andy Kim ran, that
Speaker 1: Lauren Underwood ranchers Democrats who beat Republicans to take the
Speaker 1: House that year. Right, thank you for clarifying that, Yes,
Speaker 1: they were not ads about Donald Trump. They were not
Speaker 1: hair on fire sort of Lincoln project ads. They were ads, um,
Speaker 1: that were focused on economic issues, on healthcare, which was
Speaker 1: the number one issue in eighteen. And I think it's
Speaker 1: incumbent on Democrats to understand that, um, that while the
Speaker 1: belt Waite conversation might revolve completely around Trump and most
Speaker 1: people's lives, don't you know they just carefully can pay
Speaker 1: the rails. And the more that we're talking about those
Speaker 1: things bread and butter issues and less we're talking about Trump,
Speaker 1: the better. And I would advise Democrats to go back
Speaker 1: to that playbook. And Mike, do Democrats um have the
Speaker 1: capacity to argue that when they're in charge of the
Speaker 1: country believes we're on the wrong track. Biden owns people's
Speaker 1: perceptions of the economy, which are really bad right now,
Speaker 1: despite the stock market, but despite the headline unemployment numbers,
Speaker 1: some combination of costs, inflation, maybe chaos in Washington is
Speaker 1: leading people to decide that, you know, no matter what
Speaker 1: Biden says, they they disagree with it. Well, the premise
Speaker 1: of your question, yes, I mean Biden is the captain,
Speaker 1: so it's gonna be about him. And in the belt
Speaker 1: Way and the chattering class, it's always about Trump out
Speaker 1: in voter land if you're not operating within the Democrat
Speaker 1: excuse me, the Republican primary electorate. Trump is rear view
Speaker 1: mirror yesterday's news. Why are you still talking about it?
Speaker 1: The biggest problem we have now on the Republican side,
Speaker 1: as we have this kind of cement head bund that
Speaker 1: is scary, terrible, anti patriotic and basically now running the
Speaker 1: House of Representatives. Uh, and we'll run it farther if
Speaker 1: we get in the majority, which is likely, you have
Speaker 1: a larger faction. But their cowards, so cowards don't count
Speaker 1: in factional wark as they hide, they don't fight. But
Speaker 1: the Democrats in some ways have a bigger problem, which
Speaker 1: is because our very democracy. And I don't tend to
Speaker 1: be hysterical about this like some people, but it is
Speaker 1: under threat. Um the Democratic Party is now too important
Speaker 1: for the Democratic leadership class because they're helping cause Trump
Speaker 1: point two point oh, because they want to fight on
Speaker 1: identity and the Democrats are stumbling into culture wars and
Speaker 1: they're holding a weak hand. Morally, they might argue they're
Speaker 1: holding a strong hand, but politically it is a weekend.
Speaker 1: It is secular superiority, mocking institutions, all about identity grievance.
Speaker 1: If you went to Joe Biden's website and by the way,
Speaker 1: I voted for Biden. That's so much I hated Trump.
Speaker 1: You know, I was shaking. I needed a drink. It
Speaker 1: was a painful experience for me. I'm a I'm a
Speaker 1: firm conservative, but I thought Trump should danger to the
Speaker 1: to the country, so I voted for Biden, and I
Speaker 1: had hopes he'd stick with his kind of center of steal.
Speaker 1: And So back to Biden's website, if you if you
Speaker 1: went down on the landing page, there were like fifteen
Speaker 1: little iconic cartoons of different groups. Every group's represented and
Speaker 1: the Republican Party. And I'm channeling Mark Lilla here, who's
Speaker 1: a Columbia professor. Luckily for him tenured, he's a liberal.
Speaker 1: He wrote a great short book. I highly recommend the
Speaker 1: Once in Future Liberal after Hillary lost. But they do
Speaker 1: a corporatist in the political science sense of the word,
Speaker 1: a democratic coalition of all these groups with grievances. I'm
Speaker 1: a left handed Native American for Biden, I'm of this.
Speaker 1: I'm of that confederation of groups. We do the one
Speaker 1: big unifying idea Shining City on the Hill with Reagan,
Speaker 1: make America great again with Trump. Uh. That tries to
Speaker 1: unite everybody in that cause. So this group is um
Speaker 1: tells working class white people, holy crap, we need to
Speaker 1: get a group, and then the Trump's of the world
Speaker 1: show up with their racism and their nativist arguments. So
Speaker 1: the problem that Democrats have is getting out of this group.
Speaker 1: Is um that drives in and getting back to a
Speaker 1: unified message about how and middle class economics the Democratic
Speaker 1: Party will help you. And we're back into it now
Speaker 1: because even Biden's build Back Better, which reminds me of
Speaker 1: the slogan of a chiropractic chain um, is perceived as
Speaker 1: cost right now, not benefit when you test the elements
Speaker 1: of it. There's voter candy in there all the way,
Speaker 1: but it's not relevant to what people think about Biden
Speaker 1: really quick. They also think Biden is weak. It's not
Speaker 1: about his eight point policy. Planet's about he's the old
Speaker 1: man watching the house blow up, and nobody will listen
Speaker 1: to him, and that's kryptonite for a president. Unfair, but
Speaker 1: that's the way politics works. We're going to take a
Speaker 1: break right now to pay the bills and we'll be
Speaker 1: right back. You're listening to next question. I'm Brian Goldsmith
Speaker 1: and I'm talking with two of my favorite political strategists,
Speaker 1: Liz Smith and Mike Murphy about the upcoming mid terms.
Speaker 1: Let's get back to it. It is striking to me
Speaker 1: the extent to which performance may not matter. Policy may
Speaker 1: not matter as much anymore. I mean, Biden sign legislation
Speaker 1: that literally sent most Americans a direct deposit of fives
Speaker 1: every month, and people don't know about it, or if
Speaker 1: they know about it, they don't give Biden credit for it.
Speaker 1: He passed this once in a generation, biggest investment in
Speaker 1: infrastructure since Eisenhower, and he got no credit, no lift
Speaker 1: in his numbers. As a result, has politics just become
Speaker 1: us versus them, tribalism, entertainment, disconnected from what's going on
Speaker 1: in the country or what Biden is able to accomplish. Well,
Speaker 1: I think a little bit it has become that. Um uh.
Speaker 1: But again just I think the belt Way conversation was
Speaker 1: very much focused on process. I do not think if
Speaker 1: you go around asked your neighbors, asked your friends, that
Speaker 1: they that they really know a huge amount about the
Speaker 1: back and forth between the squad and cinema and mansion,
Speaker 1: all of that. Um. And it's always important, at least
Speaker 1: to me, to keep in mind that people, I guess
Speaker 1: are very much in the bubble. Um. But we have
Speaker 1: eleven months to sell this just because Biden didn't get
Speaker 1: and I think it's silly to think that he would
Speaker 1: get some huge bomb overnight just because he passed his bill.
Speaker 1: I know it's historic but it goes to what you
Speaker 1: were saying, Brian, that there is a large amount of
Speaker 1: tribalism these days and it is sort of hard to
Speaker 1: break through that. However, over the next eleven months, it's
Speaker 1: incumbent upon Democrats um at every level to sell the
Speaker 1: hell out of his accomplishments and to point out the
Speaker 1: checks that people are getting. And a few weeks ago
Speaker 1: I got dollar check and to anyone of any income,
Speaker 1: that's a big chunk of change. And if people know
Speaker 1: the Democrats are doing this and the Republicans have tried
Speaker 1: to stop this sort of stuff at every sup of
Speaker 1: the way, that is a winning message for Democrats. But
Speaker 1: let me let me just quickly interject, because I agree
Speaker 1: with all that, but I have a big caveat the
Speaker 1: two things. One, if see Biden didn't get a lift
Speaker 1: from infrastructure because nothing ultimately happened. It got passed in
Speaker 1: the Senate, but it didn't get passed past by getting
Speaker 1: through the House quickly, so the White House communication machine
Speaker 1: could have turned on and the thing is perfect for
Speaker 1: a three or four months. Wow, look what just got
Speaker 1: done fast and possibly in d C. Thank your President Biden.
Speaker 1: You know, there's the oldest slogan in the world Governor
Speaker 1: Rhodes in Ohio, Roads and Progress, so he didn't get
Speaker 1: any of that. Instead it became a confusing Washington slappy fight,
Speaker 1: just like before, where the squad was like mad, there
Speaker 1: weren't enough trillions in it, and some guy from West
Speaker 1: Virginia said, and boom, it's lost in that no opportunity
Speaker 1: to hey, I got elected. Trump's gone and I just
Speaker 1: built a lot of new highways and your brother in
Speaker 1: law can get a good union job. That was all
Speaker 1: taken from him. Now. Maybe they have it now, but
Speaker 1: they could have run their messaging for six months on
Speaker 1: a big win. And to your point about issues not mattering,
Speaker 1: they matter less now because the old intermediaries are gone
Speaker 1: in the digital tribal age and the old days, Walter
Speaker 1: Kronk I would say, this is amazing, the biggest infrastructure
Speaker 1: bill ever. Here's what it means to you. Now we've
Speaker 1: got eight hundred channels. Half of them are just insanity
Speaker 1: of one tribe or the other picking everything apart. So
Speaker 1: it's very hard to get the rewards you used to
Speaker 1: earn with real accomplishment out there. So you have to
Speaker 1: be better at doing less doing big things. And hammering
Speaker 1: them in. Finally, one big problem they've got with this
Speaker 1: build back better thing. The elements may test so well,
Speaker 1: but because the nature of the legislative process is to
Speaker 1: shove so many elements in it, no one element gets
Speaker 1: all the attention. If this were the child care bill period,
Speaker 1: it would translate a lot more and help them instead
Speaker 1: of the big bundle of a trillion dollars worth of
Speaker 1: view spending bill, which is easier to call inflation. So
Speaker 1: two more issues that may cut through the noise that
Speaker 1: you both are describing our COVID and abortion, and let's
Speaker 1: let's do one at a time. With COVID, Biden came
Speaker 1: in with a big advantage in terms of Americans perception
Speaker 1: of his handling of that issue. Now people are are
Speaker 1: evenly split, Liz, when you think about the unpredictable future variants,
Speaker 1: is omikrone going to be the new delta or is
Speaker 1: it just going to be a blip? Um our school
Speaker 1: is going to stay open? How do you assess the
Speaker 1: political impact, to put it in purely crass terms of
Speaker 1: this once in a lifetime hopefully pandemic um. Well, I
Speaker 1: mean it's hard to assess because it's very unpredictable and
Speaker 1: we don't know how it's going to progress. However, I
Speaker 1: do think that he needs to learn from some of
Speaker 1: the mistakes of the past, the mistakes that we saw, um,
Speaker 1: you know, early on in the Trump administration, and not
Speaker 1: repeat them, you know, not uh you know. And Democrats
Speaker 1: yet and this isn't just Biden, this is Democrats at large.
Speaker 1: Is to not you know, rush to close schools. I
Speaker 1: think that the school closures were disaster, the impacts of
Speaker 1: which are going to be felt for years and years
Speaker 1: and years in terms of kids, mental health, UM, economic
Speaker 1: impact on families, all of that. So to learn from
Speaker 1: the mistakes of the past. But to you know, one
Speaker 1: thing that I was hardened by was when the news
Speaker 1: of the mecrum UM variant came out. He responds it
Speaker 1: right away, and he was on top of it and
Speaker 1: showed that his administration was taking it very seriously. That's
Speaker 1: not something that the Trump administration was doing, you know.
Speaker 1: But he's still gonna get punished, um for these things
Speaker 1: that are average to control because there is a lot
Speaker 1: of fatigue with with COVID and UM. That's gonna be
Speaker 1: a challenge for him. But as long as he shows
Speaker 1: decisive leadership and learns from the mistakes of the past.
Speaker 1: I think that's the best and most he can do. Well.
Speaker 1: He does own COVID. It's unfortunate. COVID is not kind
Speaker 1: of politicians. When you're elected, hey, maybe something will be different.
Speaker 1: When nothing is different, they get mad at you. And
Speaker 1: there's no winning COVID on a political level if you're
Speaker 1: an incumbent because you're making people take castor oil. It
Speaker 1: doesn't go away overnight. COVID is not going to say Biden.
Speaker 1: Biden is going to endure COVID, but it's gonna create damage.
Speaker 1: So the question is how does he paint the forward
Speaker 1: picture that's not about identity grievances, of what the Democratic
Speaker 1: Party is fighting for that will help your life other
Speaker 1: than a laundry list of programs. Biden was good in
Speaker 1: the campaign at being a regular guy with regular values
Speaker 1: who understood people who swing wrenches for a living, and
Speaker 1: that message has been lost about a month into his presidency.
Speaker 1: Um because of the big megaphone of the progressives in
Speaker 1: the House, because COVID is something that frankly, it requires
Speaker 1: political pain to solve. UM if anything, and I've said
Speaker 1: this a lot on hacks on tap. I want Biden
Speaker 1: to start being much tougher calling out the unvaccinated Americans
Speaker 1: is unpatriotic, and beat the hell out of them. You know,
Speaker 1: it's the sixty forty advantage. Go on offense and at
Speaker 1: least be a fighter. Right now, Biden is an observer,
Speaker 1: and observer presidents and times of crisis do not do well.
Speaker 1: So he's got nothing to lose. He's on a spiral now.
Speaker 1: They are going to lose the House, They're highly likely
Speaker 1: to lose the Senate. So if I were Biden, I'd
Speaker 1: fight like I have nothing to lose and be tough
Speaker 1: Delaware Joe for a while, because I think there's nowhere
Speaker 1: to go but up on this and quit releasing term
Speaker 1: papers about we found a by the gradable way to
Speaker 1: ship the COVID for less admissions. You know, that's the
Speaker 1: democratic term paper approach. It's great in democratic primaries, it's
Speaker 1: great in the two counties of vote America vote Democrat
Speaker 1: in America. But the other three thousand counties it's a
Speaker 1: cultural thing, and they may respect his toughness if he
Speaker 1: starts showing it. Is another issue where Democrats feel like
Speaker 1: they've got a sixty advantage of support for Roe v. Wade. UM,
Speaker 1: the decision that's coming from the Supreme Court, we think
Speaker 1: maybe in June of next year, smack in the middle
Speaker 1: of the mid terms, could overrule it. UM. Will that
Speaker 1: energize the Democratic base? Will that save Democrats from a
Speaker 1: catastrophic midterm result? Is there stuff the party could be
Speaker 1: doing between now and then? Um? Yes. So. My my
Speaker 1: view on this for a very long time has always
Speaker 1: been that, you know, worst case scenario for Republicans is
Speaker 1: if they actually do get a Supreme Courts it that
Speaker 1: overtterms Roby Wade because they just want to run on
Speaker 1: this issue for decades, decades, decades and use it um
Speaker 1: you know, as you know, a mechanism for grievance within
Speaker 1: their own party. This allows us to sort of flip
Speaker 1: the script and do what Republicans have been doing for
Speaker 1: decades and use this issue to motivate our base. Um.
Speaker 1: And there is even beyond the polling, I think that
Speaker 1: there is a even larger silent majority UM that is
Speaker 1: on the side of preserving Roby Wade, preserving abortion rights.
Speaker 1: If you look at um stays, for instance, states like
Speaker 1: South Dakota as conservative, socially conservative as they come. About
Speaker 1: a decade ago, they tried to do a ballot initiative
Speaker 1: to ban abortion, and everyone was like, well, of course
Speaker 1: this is gonna pass. They're going to ban abortion. This
Speaker 1: is South Dakota. I worked in South Dakota, and I
Speaker 1: barely remember meeting any Democrats who at the doors would say, um,
Speaker 1: that I'm pro choice. And so I think that this
Speaker 1: will motivate not only Democrats, but you know, Republicans, moderate Republicans,
Speaker 1: Independence who see this as you know, a fundamental overreach. Um.
Speaker 1: And it's republicans worst nightmare. Um if this happens, I think,
Speaker 1: and it it really takes an issue off the table
Speaker 1: for them, and it gives us a huge, huge motivating issue. Mike,
Speaker 1: you agree with that, uh, partially. First of all, if
Speaker 1: you have an angry letter based on what I'm about
Speaker 1: to say, send it to Brian Goldsmith Katie Curry podcast.
Speaker 1: The minor tragedy in this is that nobody sees the
Speaker 1: Supreme Court through the prism of constitutional law anymore. It's basically,
Speaker 1: will they give me what I want and I believe
Speaker 1: it or not, which is not the purpose of the court.
Speaker 1: And Roe v. Wade is tricky Constitutional law. The Court
Speaker 1: basically tortured itself to find a way to please the
Speaker 1: majority of the country that was at least a reasonable
Speaker 1: argument constitutionally to create Roe v. Wade out. Politically, people
Speaker 1: don't want big changes in abortion law in most places.
Speaker 1: Remember the fight of Row is, should localities states make
Speaker 1: their own abortion laws? There shouldn't be federalized. If it
Speaker 1: is overturned, it's it's going to be political rocket fuel
Speaker 1: for the Democrats in some places and in other places
Speaker 1: it won't be the suburbs, which are the key back
Speaker 1: and forth the likery you know against Trump. The Dems
Speaker 1: won them in two thousand and eighteen. In healthcare they won,
Speaker 1: and Trump on popularity in you know Biden, Trump was
Speaker 1: rejected in Virginia. They went back Republican. Uh so it
Speaker 1: can happen. You don't get it for free by saying
Speaker 1: Trump and in In that world is going to be
Speaker 1: a mighty struggle between ideological fear of the Democrats. Tax
Speaker 1: and spend liberals bring us inflation, which Democrats roll their
Speaker 1: eyes on. But that is an old hit. The Republicans
Speaker 1: know how to play it and it works. It's working
Speaker 1: now or a college educated pro choice voters who are
Speaker 1: attempted to vote against Biden and all those things, being
Speaker 1: horrified enough by the idea of fundamental changes in abortion rights,
Speaker 1: which by the way, won't happen in most suburban states.
Speaker 1: So it's a little bit of an abstract issue, but
Speaker 1: it's very powerful. And finally, you know, a hundred million
Speaker 1: dollars is going to show up from low dollar donors
Speaker 1: for the Democrats. There it'll be it'll be huge. The
Speaker 1: problem is will be bigger than frustration with Biden in
Speaker 1: most places. No, and a few of those suburbs it
Speaker 1: could be we will see last point. The suburbs will
Speaker 1: have an impact on the House races, but it's really
Speaker 1: these key Senate races where it could make the difference
Speaker 1: where it could take the Democrats out of the holder
Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada, or Nevada. But anyway to
Speaker 1: land the other debate role will be a net plus
Speaker 1: for the Dems. In the suburb it's overturned. But I'm
Speaker 1: not sure it's the Pana sea. You know, both parties
Speaker 1: have a problem. They now treat their base voters like
Speaker 1: swing voters, which means they retune their messaging only to
Speaker 1: appeal to voters they already have. Oh you gave me
Speaker 1: a perfect segue, Mike, by the way, speaking why I'm here,
Speaker 1: thank you. Speaking of Bass voters as swing voters. This
Speaker 1: is sort of a minor obsession of of Lizz's and mine. Um.
Speaker 1: Latinos Hispanic voters in the country, Um, which are a
Speaker 1: critical part of the Democratic coalition. Barack Obama got about
Speaker 1: two thirds of them in Hillary performed magnificently among them.
Speaker 1: Biden saw a little bit of a dip among Latinos,
Speaker 1: particularly as we remember Mike in South Florida and in Texas,
Speaker 1: but he still got six of the Latino vote. Um,
Speaker 1: there's a pull out this morning. We're recording this on Wednesday.
Speaker 1: That is sending shock waves through a lot of the
Speaker 1: political community. Yes, done by Biden's poster and Trump's polster
Speaker 1: together that finds for the first time in a generation,
Speaker 1: and that Hispanic voters are evenly split between the two parties,
Speaker 1: which could have profoundly negative Consequencescrats. Yeah. So, um, Liz,
Speaker 1: why don't we Let's let's first start by talking about
Speaker 1: the term latin X, and then let's talk about the
Speaker 1: broader problem. I'm so I am so sick of all
Speaker 1: the ink that has been spelled spilled over this This
Speaker 1: goddamn word you know, UM and latin x is like
Speaker 1: the political equivalent of man splaining um. It is a
Speaker 1: bunch of political operatives, people sort of in the nonprofit industry,
Speaker 1: pushing this term that Latino people themselves don't use. And
Speaker 1: I remember being on a campaign I'm not gonna say
Speaker 1: which campaign, and there was a contingent of staff who
Speaker 1: are demanding that we use the term latin X are
Speaker 1: Latino Staffers were like, you cannot use this term because
Speaker 1: we ourselves do not use this term um. And to me,
Speaker 1: it is just indicative of um uh an issue with Democrats,
Speaker 1: which is that we're seen as not caring about you know, people, UM,
Speaker 1: that we're not in touch with people. And this bizarre
Speaker 1: obsession we have with this word when voters tell us
Speaker 1: over and over and over again not to use it,
Speaker 1: speaks to this sometimes condescending image of Democrats that you know,
Speaker 1: we know better that you know, that we're morally superior
Speaker 1: to people. Um um. But more broadly, can I get
Speaker 1: just more broadly about I think the issues with the
Speaker 1: Latino vote. I started to see UM to have real
Speaker 1: concerns in TwixT when Hillary's message to the Latino community
Speaker 1: was just immigration, immigration, immigration. Um, Donald Trump is a racist, Uh,
Speaker 1: he wants to build a border ball And I've worked
Speaker 1: in Latino politics. I've worked with in Puerto Rican politics,
Speaker 1: mantic in politics up here in New York. But the
Speaker 1: Latino community is not a monolith, right. You've got Dominicans,
Speaker 1: Puerto Ricans, Mexican Americans, Venezuelans, et cetera. And so we
Speaker 1: cannot assume that every Latino voter cares about the same issues.
Speaker 1: But immigration is not even in the top three issues
Speaker 1: for uh, for Latino voters. Yet still Democrats put it
Speaker 1: first and foremost when in all of our communications to
Speaker 1: Latino voters. And we've got to understand, um that if
Speaker 1: we want to win back Latino voters, we need to
Speaker 1: talk to them about the economy, about small businesses. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, the Latino community is was hit very, very
Speaker 1: hard by COVID, and I think we've got to speak
Speaker 1: to them more on those those issues. And one last point,
Speaker 1: because I could go on about this forever, is um,
Speaker 1: we need to realize that while all liberals might be Democrats,
Speaker 1: not all democrats are liberals. And Hispanic Latino voters are
Speaker 1: tradition way more socially conservative, more and frankly more economically
Speaker 1: conservative um than you know. And the people who work
Speaker 1: on campaigns, people like me and uh, we need to
Speaker 1: understand that because issues like defund the police, um, issues
Speaker 1: uh like the Green New Deal certainly did push away
Speaker 1: Latino voters UM in areas like the Rio Grand Valley,
Speaker 1: which is very dependent, which is very dependent. UM. Law
Speaker 1: enforcement provides a lot of jobs to oil and gas
Speaker 1: industry provides a lot of jobs, so and grant there. Um.
Speaker 1: You know. I don't use the phrase latin X. I
Speaker 1: agree with Liz about it. I prefer the phrase American
Speaker 1: because it's back to the Republican thing of unified identities. Uh,
Speaker 1: the American identity, that's the pre Trump. That's a bit
Speaker 1: of the pre Trump repelic car of course, but look
Speaker 1: look what the I a rare but huge mistake. I
Speaker 1: watched the Biden campaign make and Brian you know about this.
Speaker 1: I was very involved with Republican voters against Trump. We
Speaker 1: were people talk about the Lincoln Project, we are the
Speaker 1: grift free Yeah you you were involved, and we did
Speaker 1: a lot of work in Florida state I know very
Speaker 1: well from multiple governor and other campaigns for Jeb and others.
Speaker 1: And when they sent Kamala Harris to Miami, I thought,
Speaker 1: oh my god, they totally don't get it. They're going
Speaker 1: down there with a voter of color argument, when if
Speaker 1: you've worked Dade County politics like I have for twenty
Speaker 1: five years, that is not the thing. Uh Hispanic huh
Speaker 1: of going to the oldies been voters down there, Americans
Speaker 1: of Hispanic heritage, Uh don't see themselves that way. They're
Speaker 1: more conservative, particularly as liszt as socially conservative. They're very aspirational.
Speaker 1: The index high for two wonderful things, creating their own
Speaker 1: small businesses and enlisting in the military. And they have
Speaker 1: family experience, particularly in Miami, because the different Florida markets
Speaker 1: are different with dictatorships both in Venezuelan of course in Cuba,
Speaker 1: and Biden had Cuba trouble from before being connected to Obama.
Speaker 1: On that Biden was the one who needed to go.
Speaker 1: If you look at the Wall Street Journal poll multiple times,
Speaker 1: by the way, not send Kamala, who is a problem
Speaker 1: to build that coalition because she tends to be a
Speaker 1: one note candidate. If you look at that Wall Street
Speaker 1: Journal poll. The real cut isn't Latino, Uh, non Latino,
Speaker 1: it's gender. And that's the big cut through almost all
Speaker 1: data now. And the other big cut is college educated.
Speaker 1: So the Democrats have to stop looking. And I'm sorry
Speaker 1: to be a broken record on this, but it's back
Speaker 1: to my point about the Democratic Party is too important
Speaker 1: for the Democratic leadership. They need to talk to their
Speaker 1: own voters and understand that the sophisticates and the sociology
Speaker 1: view of what makes a Democratic party is not the
Speaker 1: political coalition that counts. And if they don't do that,
Speaker 1: the bad clash against all that stuff is not only
Speaker 1: going to scare swing voters in the suburbs back away,
Speaker 1: it's gonna elect Trump again. Trump gets rocket fuel from
Speaker 1: grievance to the Democratic identity grievances and and it's crazy,
Speaker 1: but it's frustrating because I think the internal Democratic party
Speaker 1: politics are heavily weighted that way. And last thing, this
Speaker 1: is grumpy old campaign consultant hour here, and I'll shut
Speaker 1: up after up. But okay, I'm a politician, so and
Speaker 1: so a false promise. No if I read about another
Speaker 1: Democratic campaign for staff revolt, because the twenty four year
Speaker 1: olds are unhappy that we're not using Latin X on
Speaker 1: the bumper stickers. No good high stakes campaign should spend
Speaker 1: a lot of time listening to twenty four year olds. Um,
Speaker 1: wait till they're thirty and they have experienced and listen
Speaker 1: a lot, you know. Yeah, And I gotta tell you know, Mike,
Speaker 1: I was talking with someone about this earlier today. It
Speaker 1: is a problem, um that the Democratic campaigns are staffed
Speaker 1: by people who aren't representative most voters, like I include myself,
Speaker 1: and that I'm sitting here in my you know, duplex
Speaker 1: in the West Village with my Dartmouth diploma probably somewhere
Speaker 1: in one of my closets. And I'm very well aware
Speaker 1: of that. And I think it's that's why it's important
Speaker 1: to um not to one have diversity of thought in
Speaker 1: these campaigns, but understand that we don't necessarily have all
Speaker 1: the answers. And I think the four year old stafford
Speaker 1: problem is an issue and it is sort of, I
Speaker 1: think at times pathetic that you do have these high
Speaker 1: profile campaigns sort of being held hostage by kids who
Speaker 1: are just fresh out of Oberlin College. When we come
Speaker 1: back more political issues. And yes, unfortunately the Donald Trump
Speaker 1: of it all. Let's close with everyone's favorite topic, the
Speaker 1: end of democracy and Donald Trump. UM. There's a study
Speaker 1: that got a lot of attention this week. UM that
Speaker 1: was referenced in a column on the Washington Post by
Speaker 1: Dana Millbank and a data analytics company combed through more
Speaker 1: than two hundred thousand articles from sixty five different news
Speaker 1: websites across the ideological spectrum UH to basically analyze whether
Speaker 1: stories were good stories, bad stories, or something in between
Speaker 1: for Joe Biden and then compare it to the coverage
Speaker 1: that Donald Trump got UH last year in and what
Speaker 1: had found, amazingly enough, was that Biden's coverage was as
Speaker 1: bad as Trump's, and sometimes worse. And and Millbank described
Speaker 1: it this way. He said in Trump presided over a
Speaker 1: worst in world pandemic response that caused hundreds of thousands
Speaker 1: of unnecessary deaths, held a super spreader event at the
Speaker 1: White House and got COVID nineteen himself, praised Q and
Speaker 1: ON adherents, and raised violent white supremacists, waged a racist
Speaker 1: campaign against Black Lives Matter demonstrators, attempted to discredit mail
Speaker 1: and voting, refused to accept his defeat in a free
Speaker 1: and fair election, leading eventually to the violence of January
Speaker 1: six and causing tens of millions to accept the big lie,
Speaker 1: the worst of more than thirty thousand lies Donald Trump
Speaker 1: told an office. And yet Trump got press coverage as
Speaker 1: favorable as or better then Joe Biden is getting today. Sure,
Speaker 1: Biden's had his troubles with the Delta Varian, Afghanistan and inflation,
Speaker 1: but the economy is rebounding impressively. He's signed major legislation,
Speaker 1: He's restored some measure of decency, calm, and respect for
Speaker 1: democratic institutions end quote. So my question is what do
Speaker 1: we do about this? Is the press just not equipped
Speaker 1: to handle an anti democratic, anti little d democratic, proto
Speaker 1: authoritarian outlier like Donald Trump? And is that enabling his comeback? Liz,
Speaker 1: let's start with you. Well, first of all, I'm always
Speaker 1: skeptical of these stories that quote these like media analytic things.
Speaker 1: It seems like it's always a sort of an advertisement
Speaker 1: for them, and I'm not sure how accurate that is. UM.
Speaker 1: So I don't want to put too much credence in
Speaker 1: that I read the story, UM, but I think I
Speaker 1: get the overall sentiment here, UM And I honestly I
Speaker 1: have a really hard time believing that if you look
Speaker 1: at all the TV coverage, all the cable coverage, that
Speaker 1: the sentiment was more negative for Biden than for Trump.
Speaker 1: Putting that aside, yeah, you know, I get data. Milbank's
Speaker 1: point that, um, you know, uh, Joe Biden stumbling over
Speaker 1: a word at a press conference or Kamala Harris using
Speaker 1: non bluetooth ear phones is not the same thing as
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, you know, whipping up his um supporters in
Speaker 1: a frenzy and getting them to believe to storm the
Speaker 1: capitol or to not accept the election result. And we
Speaker 1: shouldn't equate those two things. Um uh. But you know,
Speaker 1: it comes with the territory. Joe Biden, any any president
Speaker 1: is going to get criticism in the press. Um. And
Speaker 1: so I think that interesting comming on the Biden administration
Speaker 1: to deal with it, um, and the press probably could
Speaker 1: be a little bit more responsible and how they handle it,
Speaker 1: how they handle Kevin McCarthy, how they handle these guys
Speaker 1: who go on the Sunday shows and still are unwilling to, um,
Speaker 1: you know, sack up and admit that Donald Trump lost
Speaker 1: the election. So the press could be a little tougher there.
Speaker 1: But you know, I think getting criticized comes with the
Speaker 1: territory being president. And that's where I disagree a little
Speaker 1: bit with what Milbank had to say. Mike. The premise
Speaker 1: here is that the countries in this existential struggle not
Speaker 1: between two parties, but between sort of democratic self governance
Speaker 1: and an authoritarian alter native. Do you think that is correct?
Speaker 1: I think it's oversimplified. I think that I'm with Lizza
Speaker 1: mill big thing is a little specious. It's the term
Speaker 1: paper thing again with the demigrants. Do oh, the media
Speaker 1: gave Trump a B and we gotta be minus. So
Speaker 1: the media's corrupt. How do we fix the media? That
Speaker 1: sounds pretty authoritarian to me right there? Um, And I
Speaker 1: don't know how they score this stuff. It is tricky.
Speaker 1: A lot of the Trump and fractions were worse on
Speaker 1: the existential scale, but they're also process. Liz is cats
Speaker 1: disagree with you, Mike, by the way, vocal Yeah. The
Speaker 1: cat's a big Elizabeth Warren supporter. And it sounds like
Speaker 1: more trumpy and howling to me. I think set the
Speaker 1: cat of blaze. Uh so you know it. And both
Speaker 1: sides like to whine about their media coverage. The fact is,
Speaker 1: here's what the press likes. It's the old Roger Ailes thing.
Speaker 1: If your candidate cures cancer in the morning and falls
Speaker 1: into an orchestra pit in the afternoon, the story is
Speaker 1: going to be falling into the orchestra pit. And Biden
Speaker 1: has had big, flashy breakthrough problems, the fleeing Calbool a
Speaker 1: k A. Saigon and seventy five visual images, very big inflation,
Speaker 1: price of gas at the pump, These new stickers I'm
Speaker 1: seeing all over gas pumps. Joe Biden did this pointing
Speaker 1: at the price. Um, those are meeting potato things. Well
Speaker 1: Trump generated and I was on board. I mean, I've
Speaker 1: hated Trump since I don't know where all these Johnny
Speaker 1: come ladies. Ron was doing the governor New Jersey's campaigns
Speaker 1: and he was a huge problem in Atlantic City. But anyway,
Speaker 1: that Trump thing is one outrage after another to the
Speaker 1: kind of the intelligentsia. Now I'm an elitist, I care
Speaker 1: about the intelligentsia, um, But but I can understand how
Speaker 1: the turbulence of Biden covid he caught the Delta variant,
Speaker 1: which probably had equal media volume to the problems Trump had.
Speaker 1: So I get the moral weighting that that Dana is
Speaker 1: working on their that Trump is more systemically outrageous and
Speaker 1: poisonous and toxic. But the fact that Biden is getting
Speaker 1: crampy pressed to the press is in the crampy press business. Uh.
Speaker 1: And you know, we know from psychological studies that a
Speaker 1: grievance story will get seven times the click of any
Speaker 1: other story, and they count those because they monetize them,
Speaker 1: particularly the cable news business. Don't get me started. So
Speaker 1: what what do we do about it? Well, that these
Speaker 1: are the rules we have in the Democrats have to
Speaker 1: learn how to play effectively on them and get out
Speaker 1: of the narcissism of identity. That would be my first thing.
Speaker 1: The second thing is do we have fundamental lose democracy problems?
Speaker 1: Here is the premise of your question indicated. And I
Speaker 1: think the country is far too ornery and far too
Speaker 1: well armed to fall into dictatorship. But I do believe
Speaker 1: we could be stuck in kind of a lost decade
Speaker 1: of woke stoppo intolerant stupidity on the left and thuggery
Speaker 1: and kind of a ashism light American style. USA Number one,
Speaker 1: I don't take vaccines. We just beat up a college
Speaker 1: professor in the parking lot for having fancy opinions about biology.
Speaker 1: We could fall into that, and we're we're tickling the
Speaker 1: whiskers of that now. And Trump is a big part
Speaker 1: of it because he's got He's become the the the
Speaker 1: deity of this kind of church of stupidity. Now, I'm
Speaker 1: betting on the actuarial charts and some bad meat loaf
Speaker 1: make cure the problem in the short term. And I'm
Speaker 1: not sure there's anybody else who could fill that Trump void.
Speaker 1: But yeah, we could get to our own American style
Speaker 1: that is not a dictatorship, but our democracy will be
Speaker 1: paralyzed by stupidity and wokeism versus thuggish authoritarian vibe stuff.
Speaker 1: But does that mean the Congress is under arrest and
Speaker 1: Trump sent a GENERALISSMO outfit or any of that. I
Speaker 1: don't believe that. And also remember the power of the
Speaker 1: state in the US UH to enforce anything is police
Speaker 1: organism the military, and our military is a citizens army,
Speaker 1: and they've taken off to the Constitution United States. I
Speaker 1: have some faith in that institution. If things go too
Speaker 1: far um to to UH to maintain UH constitutional order
Speaker 1: in the US. I don't know that I'm quite as
Speaker 1: optimistic as you are. Well, you're a democrat. It is
Speaker 1: a be on the term paper. You're going great or
Speaker 1: there's an f uh for democracy right now. And I
Speaker 1: agree it's troubling, but maybe I'm more of an optimist.
Speaker 1: It's a Republican thing. I hope you're right. I hope
Speaker 1: you're right. I just I worry that the lesson that
Speaker 1: Trump learned last time is you gotta surround yourself purely
Speaker 1: with thugs and loyalists. That he doesn't care at all
Speaker 1: about the laws of the norms of the institutions. The
Speaker 1: presidents have enormous power, and that one thing we learned
Speaker 1: over the course of the Trump presidency is that, um,
Speaker 1: a lot of the limits are kind of tradition rather
Speaker 1: than written into the law, and previous presidents wouldn't have
Speaker 1: crossed certain lines that Trump has no problem crossing. And
Speaker 1: the takeaway for him was that he wasn't aggressive enough,
Speaker 1: that he didn't crush dissent within what he calls the
Speaker 1: deep state and among his opponents enough. And I think
Speaker 1: there's a a not insubstantial chance that he comes back.
Speaker 1: And and what happens if if God forbid, he well,
Speaker 1: he wins. No. Look, it is a fear in My
Speaker 1: advice to the Democrats is not to wring hands about it,
Speaker 1: but go nominate to Steve Bullock, now to Stacy Abrams
Speaker 1: for president. Why don't you beat him at the election
Speaker 1: with a strong candidate appeals to everybody, not just the
Speaker 1: Democratic base. And what I was just gonna say, I
Speaker 1: had a little bit of pushback to you might on
Speaker 1: that is that when you're like, yes, does the squad
Speaker 1: get the lion's share of press attention? They do, because
Speaker 1: we know, as you said, what the press looks for.
Speaker 1: You know, I don't think the processories a left or
Speaker 1: right bias. They have a bias towards conflict, and the
Speaker 1: squad gives them that. But you know, there, I think
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party has filled a lot more with and
Speaker 1: Mark Kelly's and UM the Center from Arizona, Colin Olvera,
Speaker 1: the Congressman from Dallas, UM and moderates and people who
Speaker 1: are much more in tuned with with Democrats. We shouldn't
Speaker 1: give people the impression that it's all just I mean,
Speaker 1: like Raphael Warnock and Georgia performed extraordinarily well, and I
Speaker 1: think so I think Mike maybe underestimating Stacy Abrams is
Speaker 1: as a political figure. But anyway, I take your point
Speaker 1: about what the press focuses on and who the actual
Speaker 1: legislators are. Yeah, I think Trump starts out if he's
Speaker 1: nominated again, and I'm not locked into this camp that
Speaker 1: he's running and it's all over. But if he's nominated,
Speaker 1: the veritable that'll let Trump be defeated, as would be
Speaker 1: natural or not, is going to be the Democratic nominee
Speaker 1: who they choose, so the stakes couldn't be hired for
Speaker 1: the Dems. And I worry again, I think their rank
Speaker 1: and file voters get it. I worry about the culture
Speaker 1: of the leadership in the Democratic Party. Yeah. I guess
Speaker 1: my thing is I think that Trump is a fundamentally
Speaker 1: lazy guy. Um, he's grifting, like I saw some numbers
Speaker 1: on how much he was raising off of that fundraising list,
Speaker 1: And if I had to make a prediction, it would
Speaker 1: be that he's just gonna try to bankrupt all of
Speaker 1: his supporters, run away with that money and not run again. Um,
Speaker 1: but and probably wait till the last minute. So I
Speaker 1: don't necessarily I could be very wrong, but I I
Speaker 1: don't see him running again because again, I think he's
Speaker 1: a fundamentally lazy person who cares mostly about money, and
Speaker 1: he's got a perfect set up firm self right now. Well,
Speaker 1: I think there's some truth to that, but he is
Speaker 1: going to with the mind of a sixty five year old, cranky, racist,
Speaker 1: high dollar private business donor. He's going to look at
Speaker 1: the Democratic opponent that will drive a lout of his calculus.
Speaker 1: So if it's somebody that looks like the Democratic base,
Speaker 1: he'll be encouraged. If it's somebody who looks more like Aden,
Speaker 1: he won't be That's my guess. A version of your take,
Speaker 1: which I pretty much agree with. Well, as they say
Speaker 1: on cable news, to be continued and we will see
Speaker 1: you go. You put a button on it. I did.
Speaker 1: I did ever so slightly um awkward, but still very good. Yeah,
Speaker 1: thank you very much. In trouble, she'd better come back
Speaker 1: from St. Bard's whatever and reclaim the throne here. She's
Speaker 1: got competition, al right. Well, Murphy, Liz, thank you so
Speaker 1: much for doing this and we'll talk soon. Thank you,
Speaker 1: Thank you so thanks again to my guests, Mike Murphy
Speaker 1: and Liz Smith. Mike has his own amazing political podcast
Speaker 1: with David axel Rod and Robert Gibbs, which is called
Speaker 1: hacks on tap. You can find it on all your
Speaker 1: favorite podcast purveyors. You can also find him on Twitter
Speaker 1: at Murphy Mike and find Liz on Twitter at Liz Smith.
Speaker 1: But here's the hatch. Liz is spelled l I S,
Speaker 1: not l I Z. I'm Brian Goldsmith. You can find
Speaker 1: me at goldsmith be on Twitter. Thank you so much
Speaker 1: for listening, and thank you Katie for having me on.
Speaker 1: I'm sure your listeners are going to be quite relieved
Speaker 1: to hear that you were on your way back. Oh
Speaker 1: and by the way, everyone, if you haven't, please register
Speaker 1: to vote. You can't really participate in our politics without voting.
Speaker 1: Listening to the podcast isn't enough, so you can check
Speaker 1: with your state or you can go to vote dot gov.
Speaker 1: Thank you to both my guests, host Alison Roman and
Speaker 1: Brian Goldsmith for helping me out. But now it's time
Speaker 1: to pass the mic because I'm back, baby, and listeners,
Speaker 1: I have such a treat for you. I hope it's
Speaker 1: a treat. It was a treat for me to put
Speaker 1: it together. Next week, I'm sharing an intimate look at
Speaker 1: my book tour, the highlights, the low lights. Actually, there
Speaker 1: weren't any special guests, and so much more that's next
Speaker 1: week on Next Question. Next Question with Katie Kurik is
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