WEBVTT - UBS Earnings, Boeing Latest, Trump Denied Immunity 0:00:01.440 --> 0:00:05.320 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 0:00:05.400 --> 0:00:07.720 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple. 0:00:07.480 --> 0:00:10.320 Car Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business. 0:00:10.000 --> 0:00:13.200 App, Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or 0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:15.520 watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:17.079 --> 0:00:18.480 There's some things that are happening. 0:00:18.560 --> 0:00:22.360 A UBS, for example, is down almost five percent. So 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.920 we want to get you some analysis here with Alison Williams, 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:29.240 Boomberg Intelligence, Senior Analyst, Global Banks and Asset Managers. So basically, 0:00:29.360 --> 0:00:32.680 the there was a fourth quarter earnings miss. It did 0:00:32.720 --> 0:00:35.200 announce a buy back of up to one billion dollars 0:00:35.240 --> 0:00:37.920 and shares this year, So you can make an argument, Allison, 0:00:37.920 --> 0:00:40.000 there's something for the bulls or something for the bears. 0:00:40.040 --> 0:00:40.960 What was there for you? 0:00:42.520 --> 0:00:46.440 So I think you know, investor has got as much 0:00:46.479 --> 0:00:49.279 as they could today. You know, the issue is this 0:00:49.320 --> 0:00:52.720 is a long It's going to be a long time 0:00:52.760 --> 0:00:56.840 frame for this deal to execute, which I think investors 0:00:56.880 --> 0:00:57.880 should have been prepared for. 0:00:58.320 --> 0:01:00.200 They may have wanted a bit more. 0:01:01.160 --> 0:01:04.080 The one negative thing for the outlook is that twenty 0:01:04.080 --> 0:01:06.640 twenty four estimates are likely going to come down a 0:01:06.640 --> 0:01:10.400 little bit because you know the returns are going to 0:01:10.440 --> 0:01:13.160 be lower. But that's because I think UBS is trying 0:01:13.200 --> 0:01:15.000 to be aggressive in you. 0:01:14.959 --> 0:01:16.520 Know, pulling forward those costs. 0:01:16.840 --> 0:01:20.400 So they did upsize the costs on a growth basis, 0:01:20.400 --> 0:01:22.360 but they're going to invest those so not falling to 0:01:22.360 --> 0:01:25.680 the bottom line, so perhaps some disappointment there. They did 0:01:25.720 --> 0:01:29.280 reiterate their sort of three year target. They gave a 0:01:29.319 --> 0:01:32.120 longer term target that was in line with the high 0:01:32.240 --> 0:01:35.440 end before Credit sweet so I think those were all positive. 0:01:35.480 --> 0:01:38.640 The buybacks also a little bit better than expected. The 0:01:38.680 --> 0:01:42.679 big positive news was twenty seven percent increase in dividend 0:01:43.319 --> 0:01:46.280 though also, as you said, fourth quarter, you know, not 0:01:46.440 --> 0:01:49.880 so much great things going on there, so that the 0:01:49.960 --> 0:01:53.960 miss was on costs. Their adjusted costs fell, their integration 0:01:54.040 --> 0:01:57.480 costs or the restructing costs were much bigger than expected, 0:01:57.560 --> 0:02:00.000 the wealth flows moderated a little bit, and the investment 0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:01.200 band lost money. 0:02:01.960 --> 0:02:06.440 Allison, what is the new UBS here post Credit Swiss 0:02:06.440 --> 0:02:08.800 and full disclosure, I'm a client of UBS used to 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:10.880 work at Credit Swiss, so I'm all over the Swiss 0:02:11.200 --> 0:02:13.600 stuff here. But what's where does UBS want to be 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:17.360 now that they've acquired Credits Swiss? What are their ambitions 0:02:17.440 --> 0:02:20.400 VISAVI a global financial institution? 0:02:21.840 --> 0:02:25.760 So I don't think that the big picture strategy has 0:02:25.880 --> 0:02:29.239 changed much for them, right, So they their focuses on wealth. 0:02:30.360 --> 0:02:32.639 You know, they're the premier global wealth manager. 0:02:33.080 --> 0:02:36.880 They added some assets, they added some relationships with Credit 0:02:36.880 --> 0:02:38.840 Suite in the investment bank. 0:02:39.480 --> 0:02:41.440 Again, they're still focused on equities. 0:02:41.919 --> 0:02:46.200 So even though profit disappointed, revenue came in about in line. 0:02:46.200 --> 0:02:49.200 So that's that's a positive thing. On the equities trading 0:02:49.280 --> 0:02:53.800 side of things. They did add you know, some incremental ads. 0:02:53.840 --> 0:02:57.680 There were some numbers around the traders. The Bloomberg News reported. 0:02:57.720 --> 0:03:01.640 We obviously look at the top line revenue, you know, 0:03:01.680 --> 0:03:05.480 there they kept the M and A and the research 0:03:05.520 --> 0:03:09.399 areas were the areas that they added to and those 0:03:09.440 --> 0:03:10.440 areas did pretty well. 0:03:10.360 --> 0:03:10.760 On the quarter. 0:03:11.639 --> 0:03:13.400 So what else do you need to hear to get 0:03:13.400 --> 0:03:15.720 more confidence in all of this. Wean just like a 0:03:15.919 --> 0:03:17.560 kind of hold and wait for two more years. 0:03:17.600 --> 0:03:21.079 Basically, I think it is like a show me right, 0:03:21.160 --> 0:03:22.799 So I think it's going to be a step by 0:03:22.840 --> 0:03:27.240 step So Armandi, as you know, said this morning that 0:03:28.400 --> 0:03:30.440 you know, they might sacrifice a little bit of revenue 0:03:30.480 --> 0:03:32.120 because they are focused on profitability. 0:03:32.160 --> 0:03:33.720 They're focused on doing things right. 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:37.880 So again, like those are the types of things that 0:03:38.560 --> 0:03:40.040 you have to have confidence. 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:43.360 He has done a big turnaround at the UBS before. 0:03:44.440 --> 0:03:46.080 But I think that it is the kind of thing 0:03:46.080 --> 0:03:48.480 where it's like quartered by quarter, investors have to start 0:03:48.520 --> 0:03:50.800 to see, you know, some of the. 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:55.000 You know, some support for these estimates. 0:03:55.240 --> 0:03:57.400 Another target they put out there this morning was one 0:03:57.440 --> 0:04:00.440 hundred billion per year for the next two years a 0:04:00.440 --> 0:04:02.960 net new wealth asset. So I think that's a pretty 0:04:02.960 --> 0:04:05.680 good target. But again we saw some slowing in the 0:04:05.720 --> 0:04:09.320 fourth quarter. Some of that was mandates leaving with credit 0:04:09.320 --> 0:04:14.440 sue relationship managers still pretty stable, but I think investors 0:04:14.440 --> 0:04:17.640 will want to see, you know more so you know, 0:04:17.720 --> 0:04:21.200 over the next few quarters, UBS delivering on its plans. 0:04:21.880 --> 0:04:24.760 So Elison, just, I mean you cover everything all the 0:04:24.800 --> 0:04:29.359 global big investment banks, commercial banks. Here is the global 0:04:29.480 --> 0:04:34.360 bank is that just left to the Morgan, Stanley's, the Goldman, 0:04:34.440 --> 0:04:36.640 sachs Is or whatever. It doesn't seem like anybody in Asia, 0:04:36.760 --> 0:04:40.560 anybody in Europe can compete against the JP Morgans of 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:40.919 the world. 0:04:42.080 --> 0:04:44.560 So Paul, it's I mean, it's really been over the 0:04:44.640 --> 0:04:47.120 last decade, you know, ever since you left the business, 0:04:47.240 --> 0:04:49.760 but it was it was. 0:04:49.920 --> 0:04:51.120 Last decade, you know. 0:04:51.240 --> 0:04:55.000 The US Bank just fought, you know, really making those 0:04:55.040 --> 0:04:58.960 market share games. You know, Credit Suite was is sort 0:04:59.000 --> 0:05:03.039 of the latest to who you know, provide some provide 0:05:03.040 --> 0:05:06.320 some gains to those US players if you will keep 0:05:06.320 --> 0:05:09.200 in mind that, uh you know, that sale from UBS 0:05:09.200 --> 0:05:12.960 follows them exiting prime brokerage. Before Current Suite, we had 0:05:13.000 --> 0:05:15.640 Deutsche Bank who also exited Prime berg Bridge. 0:05:16.440 --> 0:05:18.719 You know, they shed parts of their fixed income business. 0:05:18.920 --> 0:05:21.719 If we went back to several years prior, there was 0:05:21.760 --> 0:05:24.360 a lot of the European players getting out of fix 0:05:24.920 --> 0:05:27.320 and you know, keep in mind, it. 0:05:27.360 --> 0:05:28.440 Is a scale business. 0:05:28.480 --> 0:05:33.440 And I think where banks like JP Morgan have been 0:05:33.480 --> 0:05:36.119 winning and in fact Goldman Sachs has gained the most 0:05:36.160 --> 0:05:39.040 market share over the last several years, or that they 0:05:39.200 --> 0:05:42.440 are investing in technology that helps them get better revenue, 0:05:42.520 --> 0:05:45.240 that helps them have more money to invest. And so 0:05:45.320 --> 0:05:48.520 it's really that virtuous cycle that some of those big 0:05:48.600 --> 0:05:50.080 US banks have been enjoying. 0:05:50.600 --> 0:05:52.520 And before we let you go, let's talk about you 0:05:52.600 --> 0:05:57.200 cover everything. A KKR doing particularly well. Also, what's driving 0:05:57.240 --> 0:05:59.640 some of these private equity guys to outperform at this point? 0:06:01.040 --> 0:06:03.320 I think, you know, if you look at the asset 0:06:03.360 --> 0:06:06.520 management industry, right like the two areas of growth are 0:06:06.560 --> 0:06:10.040 private markets and passive. 0:06:10.520 --> 0:06:15.240 The big difference is that private markets has very significant fees, 0:06:15.839 --> 0:06:18.880 and since you've seen these big companies go public, I mean, 0:06:18.920 --> 0:06:20.760 the fundraising is just impressive. 0:06:21.920 --> 0:06:23.640 Great stuff. Alison is the best. 0:06:23.760 --> 0:06:30.920 She is absolutely wonder who hired her, Alison Williams. 0:06:30.560 --> 0:06:31.719 To do it yourself. 0:06:31.400 --> 0:06:34.720 Exactly, patting myself on the back there, No, but she's 0:06:34.760 --> 0:06:37.839 the best. Allison Williams, Senior Analyst, Global Banks, Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:40.440 Before she came to Bloomberg Intelligence to cover bank she 0:06:40.480 --> 0:06:43.159 was at Morgan Stanley Investment Management on the buy side 0:06:43.560 --> 0:06:46.560 as a senior analyst covering banks there for all their 0:06:46.680 --> 0:06:47.359 big funds. 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:51.240 I just don't like all these banks have different business models, 0:06:51.279 --> 0:06:53.040 and I do not understand you keep them all straight, 0:06:53.120 --> 0:06:55.520 like at least oil companies, like they dig for stuff 0:06:55.520 --> 0:06:56.880 and they get it out of the ground, Like they 0:06:56.880 --> 0:06:59.640 may dig in different places, but it's it's pretty straightforward. 0:06:59.680 --> 0:07:01.880 I mean, you know, back in college, I wrote a 0:07:01.880 --> 0:07:04.760 paper on who are the five biggest investment banks in 0:07:04.760 --> 0:07:05.600 twenty five years? 0:07:05.800 --> 0:07:06.520 Who they're going to be? 0:07:06.560 --> 0:07:09.840 One of them was Deutsche Bank, And for a while 0:07:09.880 --> 0:07:12.880 I was looking really good there until not so. 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:15.120 Much although I mean, we thought they weren't going to 0:07:15.120 --> 0:07:17.840 survive twenty sixteen. So we thought we were all like 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:20.920 beating the drum to total bankruptcy or someone buying it. 0:07:20.960 --> 0:07:24.200 Like you know, UBS or UniCredit, and that shouldn't happen. 0:07:24.320 --> 0:07:27.320 So and you just look at the European banks and 0:07:27.360 --> 0:07:31.040 they just haven't evolved with the times. The governments haven't 0:07:31.080 --> 0:07:35.040 allowed cross border consolidation, and so the net result is 0:07:35.080 --> 0:07:39.040 in this global world they're nowhere, I mean nowhere, Deutsche Bank, 0:07:39.080 --> 0:07:42.440 you BS, they're regional banks now. And it's a shame 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:44.720 because you know, there was a time when you really 0:07:44.760 --> 0:07:48.720 thought that they could become a global financial institutions. So 0:07:48.760 --> 0:07:50.200 I have to see now it's up to the JP 0:07:50.280 --> 0:07:52.240 Morgans and Goldwin's and the Morgan standards of the world. 0:07:52.360 --> 0:07:53.680 So good stuff. 0:07:54.880 --> 0:07:58.760 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:07:58.840 --> 0:08:02.760 weekdays at ten am on applecar Play and Android Auto 0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:05.760 with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live on 0:08:05.840 --> 0:08:09.080 Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say 0:08:09.200 --> 0:08:11.480 Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:08:12.360 --> 0:08:15.960 The FAA Administrator Mike Whittaker is on Capitol Hill today 0:08:16.520 --> 0:08:18.880 and he'll be talking about the latest Boeing news and 0:08:18.920 --> 0:08:20.320 how the FA is going to have a little bit 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:23.360 more oversight. And just to add some color to this spirit, 0:08:23.440 --> 0:08:25.560 Aerospace is on their earnings call right now. They weren't 0:08:25.560 --> 0:08:27.760 able to give guidance because of what's going on with Boeing, 0:08:28.720 --> 0:08:30.760 and they say that their goal, yay, is to have 0:08:30.880 --> 0:08:34.440 zero production deficits. That's good goal, thank you. They say 0:08:34.440 --> 0:08:37.120 they're fully aligned with with Boeing. They plan to have 0:08:37.200 --> 0:08:41.400 more automation of some manual tasks. They've added inspectors, assessed 0:08:41.440 --> 0:08:44.920 plug sequence with Boeing. Like they're doing all the right stuff. 0:08:44.960 --> 0:08:47.920 And they have made progress, they say, in stabilizing the 0:08:47.960 --> 0:08:50.600 seven thirty seven production in the fourth quarter. 0:08:51.080 --> 0:08:53.200 So what does this all mean, Like, do we want. 0:08:53.080 --> 0:08:56.040 FAA regulators like getting involved more more boring planes? 0:08:56.080 --> 0:08:58.080 That is it better? Is it worse? They were already involved. 0:08:58.120 --> 0:08:58.760 It's confusing. 0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:00.960 I don't know. I don't know. But George Ferguson he knows, 0:09:01.240 --> 0:09:01.640 he might know. 0:09:01.679 --> 0:09:04.520 He covers all this aerospace and airline stuff for Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:09:04.840 --> 0:09:06.000 George, what's the latest here? 0:09:06.760 --> 0:09:10.520 What changes do you think may come to the FAA, 0:09:10.880 --> 0:09:12.160 may come to Boeing? 0:09:13.880 --> 0:09:17.200 So you know, what we heard from Whitaker in some 0:09:17.240 --> 0:09:21.880 of his initial comments was that rather than auditing Boeing safety, 0:09:21.960 --> 0:09:24.080 they're going to have a you know, physical presence on 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:26.160 the line, and that they would push some of that 0:09:26.240 --> 0:09:30.160 presence down into Spirit Aero systems. I suppose that means 0:09:30.160 --> 0:09:32.960 they'd push it also into other suppliers. I mean, I 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:34.880 frankly think it's a good thing, right I think that 0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:38.600 clearly right now, the way the system is is set up, 0:09:38.600 --> 0:09:41.840 it's not working well. You know, we've talked about it. 0:09:42.240 --> 0:09:43.000 I think it's you. 0:09:42.920 --> 0:09:47.120 Know, largely due to turnover, you know, as we went 0:09:47.120 --> 0:09:49.160 through the pandemic. I think we've lost a lot of 0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:53.160 talent at these companies. But so clearly we're having a 0:09:53.160 --> 0:09:55.840 breakdown in the manufacturing process. And I think, you know, 0:09:55.880 --> 0:09:59.280 the FAA is here to regulate, and you know, I 0:09:59.280 --> 0:10:02.280 think this something that puts the long term health of 0:10:02.280 --> 0:10:05.720 the US aerospace business at risk, and they're here to 0:10:05.760 --> 0:10:07.920 help protect that right and so putting them down on 0:10:07.960 --> 0:10:10.440 the line I think is a positive. It may slow 0:10:10.960 --> 0:10:13.280 things down, but I think for a good reason, so 0:10:13.320 --> 0:10:16.520 that you get quality through there and folks can trust 0:10:16.559 --> 0:10:20.119 the products coming out of Boeing and other US aerospace suppliers. 0:10:21.160 --> 0:10:25.400 Why weren't FAA regulars already there and have a physical presence. 0:10:26.160 --> 0:10:28.559 Well, so, I mean, I think they were largely handling 0:10:28.559 --> 0:10:34.479 things from an audit standpoint, right, reviewing processes and certification. 0:10:34.760 --> 0:10:37.800 I think that they're you know, they've been stressed thin 0:10:38.360 --> 0:10:42.400 through the pandemic as well. They haven't had enough you know, 0:10:42.480 --> 0:10:44.200 workers as well a lot of turnover. 0:10:44.840 --> 0:10:46.520 And I think also, I. 0:10:46.480 --> 0:10:49.240 Think this business was a simpler business if you go 0:10:49.360 --> 0:10:52.120 back twenty or thirty years ago. I know that's a 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:54.600 long way to go, especially I'm talking to people off 0:10:54.640 --> 0:10:55.640 it's financial markets. 0:10:55.760 --> 0:10:57.280 Yeah, but if you go back. 0:10:57.160 --> 0:11:01.040 Twenty thirty years ago, this just this apply chains didn't 0:11:01.040 --> 0:11:05.040 stretch as far. They were a lot more domestically focused, 0:11:05.400 --> 0:11:08.320 a lot more vertically integrated. And that's been changed dramatically 0:11:08.400 --> 0:11:10.680 over the last number of years. And I think Boeing 0:11:10.679 --> 0:11:12.880 got on the cutting edge of that when they built 0:11:12.880 --> 0:11:15.040 the seven eight seven, And I think that's created you know, 0:11:15.080 --> 0:11:18.440 some challenges here and now I think, you know, the 0:11:18.559 --> 0:11:21.360 regulator as well as the manufacturer has to figure out 0:11:21.840 --> 0:11:24.520 how they can manage such a far flung supply chain 0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:27.280 and make sure equality comes to on the line. 0:11:27.320 --> 0:11:29.040 So I think the world's a little bit different and. 0:11:29.040 --> 0:11:30.520 That's one of the reasons why it's changing. 0:11:31.000 --> 0:11:34.319 What's that mean for, you know, the economics of Boeing. 0:11:34.400 --> 0:11:37.160 I mean there's a school thought out there that you know, 0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:41.040 maybe ten twenty years ago they kind of maybe made 0:11:41.080 --> 0:11:43.120 the choice to focus a little bit more on shareholders 0:11:43.200 --> 0:11:47.520 than maybe on the engineering of the company engineering pedigree, 0:11:47.520 --> 0:11:50.360 and that's arguably worked out well for shareholders. Is there 0:11:50.360 --> 0:11:52.880 a sense that they maybe went too far and might 0:11:52.920 --> 0:11:54.679 have to kind of retrench a little bit. 0:11:56.440 --> 0:11:59.199 I think there is a sense that they went too far, right, 0:11:59.240 --> 0:12:02.360 if you know, member going to meetings with the old 0:12:02.400 --> 0:12:06.280 CEO McNerney and even Muhlenberg, a couple of CEOs ago, 0:12:06.920 --> 0:12:08.960 and you know, they've get into the you know, the 0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:11.080 meeting with the analysts and talk about how they had 0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:13.920 a cash generating machine, and I think that's really great, 0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:15.840 you know, but at the end of the day, these 0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:19.960 are engineering businesses and manufacturing businesses, and I think they've 0:12:19.960 --> 0:12:21.920 got to, you know, look again at investing in the 0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:25.360 people that build these aircraft. It's not it's not like 0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:28.320 an auto plant where you have a lot of capital 0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:31.480 equipment in there. You know, you've got robotics, you've got 0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:35.200 jigs and everything like that that will really help support 0:12:36.480 --> 0:12:39.840 workers that maybe aren't as you know, trained as an 0:12:39.880 --> 0:12:42.240 aerospace worker. Aerospace has a lot less of that. The 0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:45.320 volumes are lower, the work is a lot a lot more. 0:12:46.600 --> 0:12:48.320 You know, it could be it could be complex, it 0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:51.600 could be very specific, so much so that you can't 0:12:51.600 --> 0:12:53.560 get a capital tool on or a machine on it. 0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:58.000 And so you really need a seasoned workforce there, well 0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:01.040 trained workforce, And I think that's where they need to be, right, 0:13:01.040 --> 0:13:04.079 they need to get reinvested back in that workforce. 0:13:04.120 --> 0:13:06.400 And in that process, I have a really dumb question, 0:13:06.480 --> 0:13:07.760 So excuse the dumb question. 0:13:08.320 --> 0:13:09.880 Why is it so hard? 0:13:10.080 --> 0:13:12.760 Like I understand that building big things that carry people 0:13:12.920 --> 0:13:16.760 is difficult, but doing it well shouldn't be hard. 0:13:16.960 --> 0:13:18.880 For a Boeing and an Airbus the only. 0:13:18.800 --> 0:13:21.480 Two guys who do it, so like, where have they 0:13:21.559 --> 0:13:24.960 gone so wrong? They have to sort of drill down 0:13:25.160 --> 0:13:25.800 this much? 0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:29.720 Well, I guess I would say it's so hard because 0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:33.520 the tolerances are so tight, right, meaning you can't make 0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:36.000 a mistake in this business. Right you and I go 0:13:36.040 --> 0:13:38.040 to work, I can make a problem in a spreadsheet, 0:13:38.040 --> 0:13:40.200 it's okay, I'll probably figure it out in a couple 0:13:40.240 --> 0:13:42.320 hours or something like that. You can make a bad 0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:44.680 car and when it breaks down, you pull to the 0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:46.240 side of the road and you get the tow truck. 0:13:46.280 --> 0:13:48.760 It's not the end of the day. This is a 0:13:49.040 --> 0:13:54.240 zero tolerance for defects business, and that means every little 0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:57.840 miss is noticed. And that's why I think it's so hard. 0:13:58.200 --> 0:14:01.000 Fair Enough, is Boeing taking new orders? 0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:01.199 Now? 0:14:01.200 --> 0:14:02.719 How was it day to day for them? Are they 0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:04.480 still their backlogs still here? 0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:05.079 So stuff? 0:14:05.160 --> 0:14:09.840 Yeah, I mean they're absolutely open for business taking orders. 0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:14.120 I haven't seen many orders flow through lately. I have 0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:17.040 heard some customers like Ryanair that are always looking for 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:19.800 a good deal say that if anybody doesn't want their airplanes, 0:14:20.200 --> 0:14:23.080 they're willing to take them. But I mean on the 0:14:23.120 --> 0:14:26.560 sales side, absolutely, I think they're open for business. And 0:14:26.600 --> 0:14:29.320 on the manufacturing side, that's the challenge here too, is 0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:32.000 they're not going to shut it down. They're building at 0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:35.800 a thirty eight rate. They've got to do that as 0:14:35.920 --> 0:14:39.200 well as possible while improving it. And then you know, 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:41.400 we're gonna wait and see what the FAA, what changes 0:14:41.440 --> 0:14:44.080 the FAA may want as they get involved here, but 0:14:44.120 --> 0:14:46.760 they're still running the business while they try to make 0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:47.440 these improvements. 0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:49.960 Because I mean for an airliner, for example, like you 0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:52.280 put in orders and it's like years in advance, right, 0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:54.040 so like they kind of have to stay in the queue. 0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:58.640 But if the deliveries are pushed out, what airlines have 0:14:58.880 --> 0:15:00.600 enough of like old play that they. 0:15:00.480 --> 0:15:01.520 Can still do the stuff? 0:15:02.920 --> 0:15:05.760 You know, So the global airflying fleet, like I could 0:15:05.760 --> 0:15:07.640 take the next couple hours to talk you through it, 0:15:07.720 --> 0:15:11.800 but you got like ninety Yeah, I mean there's a 0:15:11.920 --> 0:15:13.400 there's a lot of them that have older fleet that 0:15:13.440 --> 0:15:15.880 can that can rely on it. Right now, there's been 0:15:15.880 --> 0:15:19.160 no change to Boeing's build strategy. They're building it the 0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:21.840 thirty eight that they broke to at the end of 0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:22.640 last year. 0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:24.880 And if this FAA you know. 0:15:24.840 --> 0:15:28.400 Analysis takes longer than six months, maybe we get into 0:15:28.400 --> 0:15:31.280 a situation where Boeing can't go to the next build 0:15:31.320 --> 0:15:33.920 rate that they had they had projected as they you know, 0:15:34.000 --> 0:15:36.520 told customers they could have airplanes. I could tell you 0:15:36.600 --> 0:15:38.520 that there's a lot of folks, a lot of airlines 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:41.720 in the world that expected airplanes, even from air Bus 0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:45.080 at certain dates that are having to push some of 0:15:45.120 --> 0:15:49.000 those out and and make, you know, make provisions with 0:15:49.040 --> 0:15:51.880 either less sores or using older fleet so that they 0:15:51.920 --> 0:15:54.120 can cover the schedule they want to fly. So this 0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:56.440 is not just a Boeing issue with sort of managing 0:15:56.760 --> 0:15:58.040 not having airplanes ready. 0:15:58.320 --> 0:16:00.760 All right, George, thanks so much for joining us again. 0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:05.640 George Ferguson, Senior Aerospace, Defense and Airlines Annols Bloomberg Intelligence 0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:09.120 on the Zoom Camp from a Bloomberg's headquarters down to Princeton, 0:16:09.120 --> 0:16:10.520 New Jersey. 0:16:10.960 --> 0:16:14.840 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:16:14.920 --> 0:16:17.640 weekdays at ten am Eastern on fo car Playing and 0:16:17.760 --> 0:16:20.600 broud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand 0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:24.320 wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:29.840 A bad day for President Trump and his legal team. 0:16:29.880 --> 0:16:31.200 Can you put this in context for us? 0:16:32.280 --> 0:16:36.880 Sure? Yes, it's a speed bump in his legal journey. 0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:38.040 I guess you could call it. 0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:42.880 He the a three judge panel of the d C 0:16:43.400 --> 0:16:46.520 Circuit Court of Appeals, which is actually the US Circuit 0:16:46.560 --> 0:16:50.040 Court of Appeals based in DC, has ruled the Trump's 0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:53.840 argument that he is immune from criminal prosecution because he 0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:58.120 was president when he was allegedly committing these crimes related 0:16:58.160 --> 0:17:01.000 to the insurrection at the Capitol on January six, that 0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:03.880 his argument is wrong, that he has no immunity and 0:17:04.000 --> 0:17:09.040 he can indeed be prosecuted. Trump has just said that 0:17:09.200 --> 0:17:11.800 he was going to appeal that decision, and that would 0:17:11.840 --> 0:17:14.840 go to the full US Circuit Court of Appeals for 0:17:14.880 --> 0:17:18.199 the District of Columbia and then presumably onto the Supreme 0:17:18.280 --> 0:17:21.160 Court if he doesn't like the answer from the nine judges. 0:17:21.960 --> 0:17:23.760 Wendy, do you think that it will get to the 0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:26.080 Supreme Court? We were debating whether or not they would 0:17:26.080 --> 0:17:26.359 take it. 0:17:26.400 --> 0:17:30.240 Up if it got there. It's always hard to tell 0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:32.760 what the Supreme Court will do. I have no doubt that. 0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:36.439 If the nine judge panel agrees with the three judge panel, 0:17:36.920 --> 0:17:38.760 that Trump will appeal it all the way to the 0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:42.960 Supreme Court. And it's one of those basic fundamental constitutional 0:17:43.040 --> 0:17:46.480 questions that frankly, the Supreme Court would probably be interested 0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:49.440 in taking up because it will determine once and for 0:17:49.600 --> 0:17:55.440 all whether a president has immunity now a president, we've 0:17:55.520 --> 0:17:59.320 never faced this before, first of all, but also Trump 0:17:59.480 --> 0:18:03.160 is arguing based on a nineteen eighty two Supreme Court 0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:07.720 decision that in civil cases. A president is immune from 0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:11.280 civil lawsuits. For ax, he took his president, but a 0:18:11.400 --> 0:18:14.840 civil lawsuit and a criminal indictment are two very different things. 0:18:15.560 --> 0:18:20.080 So lots of questions here. One of them is just timing, Wendy. 0:18:20.160 --> 0:18:23.680 Do we have any framework for how the one, possibly 0:18:23.800 --> 0:18:25.600 two appeals would take. 0:18:27.119 --> 0:18:30.040 We don't. He has a former president. 0:18:30.080 --> 0:18:33.960 Trump has until Monday to file an appeal, or to 0:18:34.119 --> 0:18:35.240 say he's going to appeal. 0:18:35.280 --> 0:18:38.879 I think so he has till Monday to do that. 0:18:40.800 --> 0:18:43.159 Then we don't know how long it would take the 0:18:43.240 --> 0:18:46.879 full court to decide, and then the Supreme Court may 0:18:47.000 --> 0:18:49.840 or may not take its time, depending on how complicated 0:18:49.920 --> 0:18:52.720 the issue is. I like to think that these courts 0:18:52.760 --> 0:18:57.080 would not act based on politics, and there's no reason 0:18:57.160 --> 0:19:00.480 to think they would. So they may just see the 0:19:00.600 --> 0:19:03.520 case as easy and decide quickly, or they may decide 0:19:03.520 --> 0:19:05.879 to take more time. But either way, the clock is 0:19:05.960 --> 0:19:07.439 ticking toward the November election. 0:19:07.880 --> 0:19:10.320 Wendy. Let's just play it out for a second. 0:19:10.359 --> 0:19:12.280 So let's just say that this sticks in whatever way 0:19:12.760 --> 0:19:15.240 and he's not granted criminal immunity. 0:19:16.359 --> 0:19:18.879 With them, what like, does what does that do to 0:19:19.320 --> 0:19:20.080 the November election? 0:19:21.000 --> 0:19:24.920 Well, what it does do is allow Jack Smith, the 0:19:25.200 --> 0:19:29.639 Justice Department Special prosecutor, to move forward with his case 0:19:30.280 --> 0:19:34.520 charging Trump with responsibility for the January sixth attack on 0:19:34.560 --> 0:19:38.960 the US Capitol in twenty twenty one. And Jack Smith 0:19:39.040 --> 0:19:41.760 says he's ready to go and would like to do 0:19:41.920 --> 0:19:45.359 this case quickly. So presumably if the courts act in 0:19:45.480 --> 0:19:49.320 time and the question of immunity is settled so that 0:19:49.480 --> 0:19:53.160 a trial can go forward, then we could be looking 0:19:53.200 --> 0:19:55.159 at a trial on that case before the election. 0:19:56.520 --> 0:20:00.560 So is there any consensus in Washington about how this 0:20:01.440 --> 0:20:03.880 will play out here because it doesn't seem very good 0:20:04.000 --> 0:20:06.399 for the former president just from my read, which is 0:20:06.480 --> 0:20:07.320