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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: The last few days in Syria have shocked the world.

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Speaker 1: Basha Alsade has fled to Moscow after rebels advanced on Damascus.

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Speaker 1: But it's truly unbelievable scenes.

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Speaker 3: Most people alive today do not know a Middle East

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Speaker 3: so that did not.

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Speaker 2: Have the Atad regime at the helm of Syria. After

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Speaker 2: ten days of rebel advances across the country and a

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Speaker 2: lightning offensive into Syria's capital over the weekend, the Shah

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Speaker 2: Al Asad fled Damascus for Russia, ending his family's fifty

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Speaker 2: year grip on power over Syria and his own brutal

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Speaker 2: twenty four year reign. His toppling creates a power vacuum

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Speaker 2: in a country that's been ravaged by thirteen years of

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Speaker 2: a deadly civil war. Syrian rebels on Monday were in

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Speaker 2: the process of appointing an interim government to replace Assad,

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Speaker 2: but as global leaders react to the rapid shifts on

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Speaker 2: the ground, the country and the region face an uncertain future.

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Speaker 1: It's certainly momentous for the Middle East. It's hugely symbolic.

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Speaker 2: That's Bloomberg's Paul Wallace, who's been covering the fallout from Dubai.

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Speaker 2: He joined me to break down the developments.

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Speaker 1: And talking to Syrians, whether they're in the country or

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Speaker 1: whether they're in the diasper somewhere. There's almost a universal

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Speaker 1: sense of jubilation that finally the country is rid of

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Speaker 1: the Asad regime, but that's mixed with a lot of

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Speaker 1: nervousness and wariness about what comes next.

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Speaker 2: Today on the show, what the swift and unexpected toppling

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Speaker 2: of Bashar al Assad's regime means for Syria, the Middle East,

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Speaker 2: and the world. This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News.

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Speaker 2: I'm Sarah Holder. Paul. Thanks so much for joining us

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Speaker 2: this morning. I'd love to catch up everyone on what's

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Speaker 2: been a landmark few days in Syria. Can you walk

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Speaker 2: us through what happened this past weekend.

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Speaker 1: Everything happened extremely quickly and in a way that took

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Speaker 1: I think everyone off guard, not just Syrians, but world

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Speaker 1: powers too that have vested interests in the country. Two

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Speaker 1: weeks ago, Syria was in some of what that started

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Speaker 1: back in two thousand and eleven, but the situation was

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Speaker 1: pretty stable and the government of President Bashah al Asad

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Speaker 1: seemingly had little to worry about. It didn't control all

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Speaker 1: of the country. The country has kind of been a

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Speaker 1: hatchwork of areas controlled by different groups for a long time,

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Speaker 1: groups ranging from Islamic state to the government itself, to

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Speaker 1: Kurdish groups and lots of other types of organizations in between.

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Speaker 1: But suddenly, in late November, a rebel group advanced out

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Speaker 1: of a northwestern province that it controls called Idlib and

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Speaker 1: took Aleppo. That was a major shock, but even then

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Speaker 1: people thought, wow, okay, they may try and advance on Damascus,

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Speaker 1: the capital, but that would surely take a long time.

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Speaker 1: And we went into the weekend with the rebels having

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Speaker 1: advanced a little.

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Speaker 3: Bit from Aleppo.

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Speaker 1: But what happened was that the Syrian military just collapsed

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Speaker 1: at astonishingly quick rate. It gave up cities like Hamma

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Speaker 1: and then Homes, which was the last one before Damascus,

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Speaker 1: and then Damascus was taken extremely quickly, essentially apart from Aleppo,

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Speaker 1: those areas in those cities were given up by the

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Speaker 1: Syrian military without a fight, And that just showed how

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Speaker 1: hollered out it had become, how hollered out serious institutions

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Speaker 1: had become. After thirteen years of civil war and almost

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Speaker 1: a quarter of.

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Speaker 2: A century rule and Theerbasha ala San tell us a

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Speaker 2: little more about the main rebel coalition that ultimately forced

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Speaker 2: Asad from Syria. Who are they, what are their motivations,

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Speaker 2: and who's eating that coalition?

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Speaker 1: So Hayataria al Sham is a Sunni is An organization.

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Speaker 3: It's the one that led the rebel advance.

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Speaker 1: Hs As it's called broke away from al Qaeda in

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Speaker 1: twenty sixteen. It claims to have moderated significantly since then,

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Speaker 1: but it is still designated a terrorist organization by the US,

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Speaker 1: the UK, and many other countries. It's led by someone

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Speaker 1: who goes by two names. His real name, if you like,

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Speaker 1: is Ahmed al Shara. He's also got a non de

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Speaker 1: guere or a war name, and that's Abu Muhammed al Jolani.

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Speaker 1: He is in his early forties and spent time in

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Speaker 1: Iraq fighting with militias there, but he was instrumental in

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Speaker 1: setting up a civilian quasi government, if you like, in

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Speaker 1: the rebel held territory of Idland, where this latest uprising began.

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Speaker 1: He has a pretty good reputation among Syrians that have

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Speaker 1: either lived under Hshes's rule or that have read and

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Speaker 1: heard about too, but there's still a lot of wareness

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Speaker 1: among Syrians and governments around the world that HHS has

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Speaker 1: actually shed all of its most extreme parts of its ideology,

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Speaker 1: and certainly the still elements within the group that would

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Speaker 1: be classified as extremists by most standards in the West.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's back up a bit more and give some

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Speaker 2: more historical context. You mention this conflict dating back to

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Speaker 2: twenty eleven. What are some of the key events in

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Speaker 2: the past decade or so that really led us to

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Speaker 2: this moment.

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Speaker 1: Syria was one of the countries that was hardest hit

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Speaker 1: by the Arab Spring that started in late twenty ten

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Speaker 1: and really kicked off in twenty eleven and saw Arab

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Speaker 1: leaders and places like Yema in Egypt and Libya toppled.

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Speaker 1: The Arab Spring Is said he kicked off the civil

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Speaker 1: war in Syria, and for the first probably five or

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Speaker 1: so years, that was when the fighting was most intense.

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Speaker 1: Early on, in about twenty twelve, Hesbela, based in Lebanon,

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Speaker 1: the Iranian proxy militia came to Basha Alassan's aid, and

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Speaker 1: they said troops there around that time, aside didn't really

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Speaker 1: look all that vulnerable until about twenty fifteen, and at

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Speaker 1: that stage he probably was going to fall, and that's

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Speaker 1: when Russia and Iran stepped in, Iran doing so directly,

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Speaker 1: not just through helping Hesbela with arms and funding. And

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Speaker 1: if it wasn't for Vladimir Putin and the Iranian government

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Speaker 1: deciding to do that, he probably would have been ousted

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Speaker 1: back in twenty fifteen.

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Speaker 3: But they saved him for Russia.

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Speaker 1: This was a real power play, was one of the well,

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Speaker 1: in fact, the only time really that Russia has engaged

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Speaker 1: so decisively outside its own direct sphere of influence in

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Speaker 1: say Central Asia or Eastern Europe. And Putin used his

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Speaker 1: ability to enable Assad to survive not only to showcase

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Speaker 1: his clout globally, but to use it to try and

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Speaker 1: drive a wedge between the various Western powers and also

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Speaker 1: between other Arab states and Western powers.

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Speaker 2: When we come back how developments in Syria could impact

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Speaker 2: the rest of the Middle East and the region's ongoing

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Speaker 2: geopolitical conflicts. Syria sits at the geographic center of several

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Speaker 2: powers in the Middle East. One of its neighbors, Israel,

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Speaker 2: has been at war with Iran's proxies in the area

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Speaker 2: Hamas and Hezbola, and over the weekend, as Asads regime fell,

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Speaker 2: the Israeli military made incursions into its buffer zone with

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Speaker 2: Syria and reportedly launched strikes on military targets, including on

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Speaker 2: suspected chemical weaponsites. Bloomberg's Paul Wallace told me Israel is

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Speaker 2: just one of the major players trying to get a

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Speaker 2: handle on what a post Assad Syria could look like. Paul,

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Speaker 2: the Middle East is grappling with a web of overlapping

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Speaker 2: conflicts right now. What does this development in Syria mean

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Speaker 2: for the region broadly?

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Speaker 1: If you look at Syria in terms of the size

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Speaker 1: of its population, or its commodity exports, or its economy

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Speaker 1: in general, it's not that significant on a global scale,

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Speaker 1: but it is one of the Middle East larger countries

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Speaker 1: that holds a strategic position. It bought is Israel, it

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Speaker 1: bought is Lebanon, it bought his Turkey, It's got part

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Speaker 1: of the Mediterranean coast, and Syria has traditionally been.

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Speaker 3: Very much one of the heartlands of the Arab world.

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Speaker 1: It's important to note that while Basha Alassan has ruled

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Speaker 1: since two thousand, his father Hafez ruled since the nineteen seventies,

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Speaker 1: and essentially it's been family rule for a fifty five

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Speaker 1: years until it had been until last weekend. They were

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Speaker 1: both in the end as despotic, as autocratic, and as.

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Speaker 3: Despise as each other.

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Speaker 1: So for the Middle East, it's hugely symbolic, and talking

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Speaker 1: to Syrians, whether they're in the country or whether they're

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Speaker 1: in the diaspora somewhere, there's almost a universal sense of

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Speaker 1: jubilation that finally the country is rid of the Asad regime.

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Speaker 1: But that's mixed with a lot of nervousness and wariness

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Speaker 1: about what comes next in terms of what's been going

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Speaker 1: on in the Middle East recently. Of course, I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of listeners will be thinking how does this

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Speaker 1: tie with Israel's conflicts with Hezbela and Lebanon and with

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Speaker 1: Hanas in Gaza, And depending on how you see it,

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Speaker 1: it could be seen as.

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Speaker 3: A continuation of that.

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Speaker 1: Is there any Prime Minister Benjamin Nettinyahu has said that

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Speaker 1: if Israel hadn't weakened Hesbela so much in the last

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Speaker 1: two or three months, things would have been very different

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Speaker 1: in Syria.

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Speaker 3: I think, you know.

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Speaker 1: He's alluding to the fact that maybe Hezwela would have

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Speaker 1: been able to send troops from Lebanon into neighboring Syria.

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Speaker 1: If it wasn't so weakened by war with Israel. I

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Speaker 1: don't think we can say it was down to Israel.

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Speaker 1: It was certainly down to opposition forces and Syrians themselves,

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Speaker 1: but it's not completely isolated from what's been going on

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Speaker 1: in the region since October last year.

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Speaker 2: What about Russia and Iran, countries with ties to Asade,

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Speaker 2: how have they been reacting?

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Speaker 1: They, I think are the two big losers from what's happened.

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Speaker 1: It's hard to overstate just how crucial Aside was both

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Speaker 1: to Iran's government and Russian's Vladimir Putin. He was absolutely

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Speaker 1: key to their influence in the Middle East. Russia has

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Speaker 1: its only Mediterranean naval base in Syria, it has a

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Speaker 1: nearby air base there, and President elect Donald Trump actually

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Speaker 1: said as much, and he and many others have said

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Speaker 1: that this is a sign of how distracted and we

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Speaker 1: can Russia has been by its war in Ukraine, and

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Speaker 1: how we can Iran has been by conflict with Israel,

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Speaker 1: either directly or vir It's proxies like Hesboala over the

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Speaker 1: last year.

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Speaker 2: Speaking of President elect Trump, what is the US's positioning

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Speaker 2: in all of this, What do we know about how

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Speaker 2: Trump might approach Syria and developments there as he enters

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Speaker 2: office next month.

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Speaker 1: I think for the US it's a very tricky situation. Essentially,

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden's administration and Donald Trump are taking the same view.

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Speaker 1: They're essentially saying that step back, we can't do anything

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Speaker 1: at the moment, just let events in Syria unfold. We

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Speaker 1: shouldn't get involved. Trump said that very unambiguously. He said,

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Speaker 1: it's their fight, whatever happens, the US should just stay

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Speaker 1: out of it. The White House older Biden has not

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Speaker 1: been as explicit, but its actions point to it thinking

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Speaker 1: in much the same way the Americans have troops in

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Speaker 1: Syria or paper they're there to help find ISIS and

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Speaker 1: other extremist groups. There's not a huge number of troops,

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Speaker 1: but I imagine what the US is going to do

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Speaker 1: for the rest of Biden's term and probably for the

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Speaker 1: early part of Trump's presidency, is just to stay back

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Speaker 1: and wait till the situation stabilizes.

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Speaker 2: The long term leadership of Syria is unclear right now.

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Speaker 2: But what do we know so far about who is

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Speaker 2: in power in Syria today and who might take over

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Speaker 2: long term?

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Speaker 1: That's a good question, and that's a very big question.

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Speaker 1: HGS controls Damascus, the capitol, and a Leppo, the second

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Speaker 1: city in Syria, and other cities in between them. So

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Speaker 1: essentially it controls areas containing the vast bulk of Syria's population.

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Speaker 1: Other groups, some of which are supported by Turkey, some

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Speaker 1: of which are opposed by Turkey, controlled bits of northern Syria.

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Speaker 1: You've still got Islamic state in control of small parts,

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Speaker 1: let's say, very largely populated parts of eastern Syria, and

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Speaker 1: groups in between. At the moment, I think it's you

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Speaker 1: would say that HTS is in charge that has the

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Speaker 1: capital and the second city as well, but that's far

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Speaker 1: from saying that it's consolidated in its gript across the country.

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Speaker 2: And Paul, what does this all mean for the people

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Speaker 2: of Syria, millions of whom have been displaced, hundreds of

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Speaker 2: thousands of whom have been killed in this thirteen year

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Speaker 2: long civil war. What could the immediate future look like

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Speaker 2: on the ground for them?

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Speaker 1: I think the first thing is that it essentially means

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Speaker 1: the war is over. As you mentioned, this war has

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Speaker 1: been absolutely devastating by global standards, by historical standards. You

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Speaker 1: name it un agencies estimate somewhere between three hundred thousand

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Speaker 1: and a half a million people have been killed by

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Speaker 1: fighting or by disease and other effects of war. Close

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Speaker 1: to fifty million people have been displaced. There is still

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Speaker 1: fighting in some parts of Steious, so it's not totally

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Speaker 1: peaceful yet.

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Speaker 3: But broadly speaking, I think HTS's.

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Speaker 1: Toppling of sign brings the civil war to an end,

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Speaker 1: and that is first and foremost the biggest source of

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Speaker 1: relief for Syrians. And I think now it's a case

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Speaker 1: of can the country unite? Can it build up its

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Speaker 1: economy which has been absolutely devastated in the last thirty years.

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Speaker 1: I think the first thing they'll be looking for is

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Speaker 1: for somebody, whether it's HGS or somebody else, to actually

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Speaker 1: consolidate their grip on the country and to form a proper,

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Speaker 1: functioning and inclusive government.

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Speaker 2: This is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder.

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Speaker 2: This episode was produced by Julia Press and Jessica Beck.

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Speaker 2: It was edited by Aaron Edwards and Greg White. It

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Speaker 2: was fact checked by Adriannatapia and mixed and sound designed

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Speaker 2: by Alex Subia. Our senior producer is Naomi Shadan. Our

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Speaker 2: senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso, Our executive producer is Nicole

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