Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm Joe wi Isn't and I'm Tracy Halloway. Tracy, you know, obviously,
Speaker 1: when we talk about inflation, which we talk about all
Speaker 1: the time, a lot of the converse, a lot yeah,
Speaker 1: has to do of course, with the macro monetary policy,
Speaker 1: fiscal policy, the compensation for years of under investment in
Speaker 1: key commodities or key industries. But it really does seem
Speaker 1: like in some areas, I don't know if luck is
Speaker 1: the right word, but there are some areas where things
Speaker 1: are contributing to shortages that do seem like sort of
Speaker 1: like bad luck and not necessarily related to the economic
Speaker 1: cycle directly. But here's the thing, So, yes, I agree
Speaker 1: with you, but it feels like that bad luck just
Speaker 1: keeps continuing, right. It feels like we've had a number
Speaker 1: of specifically commodities at this point in time where we
Speaker 1: talk about, oh, a perfect storm of factors have come
Speaker 1: together to drive coffee prices higher, or wheat prices higher,
Speaker 1: or soybean prices higher or whatever. And it's always sort
Speaker 1: of different factors. Some of them have an underlying thing
Speaker 1: in common, which would be the weather. But it just
Speaker 1: seems to keep happening, and I guess, yeah, it's weird,
Speaker 1: and I guess it makes me wonder whether or not
Speaker 1: there's something structural at play, like maybe when it comes
Speaker 1: to certain commodities, something about the market is just less
Speaker 1: resilient than it. You know, you're toetally right. I think
Speaker 1: back to we probably had a number of episodes where
Speaker 1: like the perfect storm in this so the perfect storm
Speaker 1: and lumber, the perfect storm at the ports, and it's like,
Speaker 1: if you keep having perfect storms over and over, right,
Speaker 1: maybe they're just normal storms, and be they might reveal
Speaker 1: so thing underlying that maybe about the market or about
Speaker 1: the underlying good that it doesn't take much to wind
Speaker 1: up in a perfect storm, because perfect storms aren't supposed
Speaker 1: to happen all the time exactly. It pains me to
Speaker 1: quote to lab but maybe there's a sort of anti
Speaker 1: fragile thing happening here. But I think I think we
Speaker 1: should dig into this, right and I think we should
Speaker 1: look at a specific crop or commodity that has experienced
Speaker 1: a perfect storm last year, And we talked about it
Speaker 1: back then, and I think the title of the episode
Speaker 1: was actually a perfect storm for this particular crop with
Speaker 1: the heat. And now fast forward to two and it's
Speaker 1: even more of a perfect storm. You still have bad weather,
Speaker 1: you still have subpar yields on crops, and now you
Speaker 1: also have what's happening in Ukraine and Russia which is
Speaker 1: also eaten into the global market. So it's even more
Speaker 1: of a perfect storm perfect or storm. Clear is that
Speaker 1: plantings of wheat in the US and so just basically
Speaker 1: the pace of new crop plantings has been really dismal
Speaker 1: in which does not pretend good things for the wheat supply,
Speaker 1: does not pretend good things for food inflation and food
Speaker 1: shortages to ease dramatically. So we're going to dig into
Speaker 1: what's going on. So we're gonna return with uh, a
Speaker 1: guest we've spoken to last year with the original perfect
Speaker 1: storm in the space, we're gonna be speaking with Angie
Speaker 1: sets Her. She is the co founder of Conscious r I,
Speaker 1: which helps farmers manage their risk, hedge and so forth.
Speaker 1: And so Angie, thank you so much for coming back
Speaker 1: on Odd Lots, Thanks for having me. We're just talking
Speaker 1: about how long it's been. It was just late last fall,
Speaker 1: but I'm pretty sure it's been a decade, uh, if
Speaker 1: not more. UM in the egg space. Currently, it's what
Speaker 1: it feels like. Last fall feels like a really long
Speaker 1: time ago objectively, so we just uh time we had
Speaker 1: you back, so uh planting for wheat, they're really dismal, right, yeah,
Speaker 1: so spring wheat. So it's important to kind of one
Speaker 1: of the fun things that I love about my job
Speaker 1: is to be able to kind of educate or or
Speaker 1: kind of give you insight into all of the wonderful
Speaker 1: classes of wheat um. And So in Kansas City, in
Speaker 1: the southern Plains, the Kansas City wheats what we call
Speaker 1: it um it it the southern plains grows hard red
Speaker 1: winter wheat. And then in the eastern corn belt, so
Speaker 1: east of the Mississippi down to the Gulf of Mexico
Speaker 1: up into Michigan where I am, we grow soft red
Speaker 1: winter wheat and soft white winter wheats. So we actually
Speaker 1: have farmers plant in the fall um on the soft
Speaker 1: red winter wheat side in the eastern corn belt here,
Speaker 1: specifically here in Michigan and in some of the states
Speaker 1: in the Great Lakes areas, they had a poor planting
Speaker 1: progress or poor planting weather. Um last fall, we just
Speaker 1: weren't able to get the swaybeans off in time to
Speaker 1: get the wheat in in time. Winter kind of came
Speaker 1: on a little early, so we saw a pretty significant
Speaker 1: reduction in our acreage here um in Michigan and in
Speaker 1: some surrounding states. In the southern plains, they're dealing with
Speaker 1: the drought. So we can get to that later. But yes,
Speaker 1: in the spring and wheat belt, which is actually the
Speaker 1: most important because that's kind of where we really had
Speaker 1: leaned heavily on a year ago, was okay, we we
Speaker 1: can manage through. You know this of course before the
Speaker 1: Russia Ukraine situation and some of these other things. You know,
Speaker 1: we can really manage through with a tighter wheat crop
Speaker 1: if we can make sure that the spring wheat crop
Speaker 1: looks good. But we obviously had a major drought in
Speaker 1: the Canadian prairies and into the spring wheat areas of
Speaker 1: the United States. So spring wheats grown in Montana, North Dakota,
Speaker 1: parts of South Dakota, and uh western um Minnesota. And
Speaker 1: so if if you look at a summary of rainfall
Speaker 1: um leading up to about the first of April one
Speaker 1: planting season would kick off, they had stayed um incredibly dry.
Speaker 1: So in a you know, cruel twist of irony. We
Speaker 1: started the year concern that we were going to see
Speaker 1: continued drought development, and we had been so exceptionally dry
Speaker 1: for so long we were nervous about what would take place.
Speaker 1: So you know, in true mother nature form over what's
Speaker 1: taken place the last couple of years, she brought all
Speaker 1: of the rain that you would want to have seen
Speaker 1: in the six months prior in about six weeks time.
Speaker 1: And so yeah, we've seen UM record UH delays and planting,
Speaker 1: specifically in in North Dakota and in Minnesota. Most of
Speaker 1: them we feel UM should be close to have being
Speaker 1: able to catch up prior to final planting final insurance
Speaker 1: planting dates the middle of this week. UM. There was
Speaker 1: a lot of progress that has taken place, although it
Speaker 1: took place in in less than ideal conditions and and
Speaker 1: so some farmers are are crossing their fingers and holding
Speaker 1: their breath that uh, we're we're able to see that
Speaker 1: crop come up and and get a normal year of production.
Speaker 1: So this is a really good reminder that there are
Speaker 1: different types of wheat that are planted at different times
Speaker 1: of the year and in different parts of the country.
Speaker 1: Can you give us an idea of what yields actually
Speaker 1: look like on some of those crops at the moment.
Speaker 1: And my understanding is that the U. S Department of
Speaker 1: Agriculture also grades the crops, you know, give some like
Speaker 1: excellent designations or poor designations. What does it actually look
Speaker 1: like right now? How bad is it out? Yeah, So
Speaker 1: the softwad wheat belt, like I said, the eastern region
Speaker 1: of the country, we're doing pretty good. Um. Things look good.
Speaker 1: We continue to get reasonable rain, the wheat crops starting
Speaker 1: to head out, um, and you want to see some
Speaker 1: continued rain, um, you know, for the next couple of
Speaker 1: few weeks here until we get closer to harvest. Here
Speaker 1: in Michigan, we're the last ones in the Software wheat
Speaker 1: belt to to roll with harvest and that usually takes
Speaker 1: place the week after the fourth of July. So the
Speaker 1: Software wheat crop is used for cakes, doughnuts. You know,
Speaker 1: we like to say that we're the fun crop. Um.
Speaker 1: It's used for the fun stuff. Um. And the hard
Speaker 1: read w crop is is really where a lot of
Speaker 1: the condition ratings because the spring wheat crop is is
Speaker 1: just getting planted, so we haven't had a chance yet
Speaker 1: to to see what those look like. But the hard
Speaker 1: red winter wheat crop UM in in the southern plains
Speaker 1: is one of the worst rated crops um on record. Um.
Speaker 1: As a result, the U. S d A has has
Speaker 1: lowered yield expectations, you know, with with acreage and yield
Speaker 1: expectations as is and the expected abandonment. So basically what
Speaker 1: you could see farmers do is is they could come
Speaker 1: into spring and recognize that the stand of their crop
Speaker 1: is is poor um and that the potential for the
Speaker 1: crop is is below average, and they can then transition
Speaker 1: into a different crop. They may choose to um, switch
Speaker 1: to corn, maybe milo, maybe soybeans, depending on how planting
Speaker 1: is going, something of that nature. Uh, sorghum. So yeah,
Speaker 1: so we'll call it milow or sorghum, depending on where
Speaker 1: you're at in the country. Um. So that's the that's
Speaker 1: one of those fun Uh here in the industry we
Speaker 1: call it milo, but yeah, it's sorghum. Um. They may
Speaker 1: switch over that. Especially store gum is a very drought
Speaker 1: tolerant crop. So if they're in the western portions of
Speaker 1: Kansas and parts of Texas that haven't seen the amount
Speaker 1: of rain that they had hoped for the Oklahoma Panhandle, um,
Speaker 1: you know, you could see that transition take place. Um.
Speaker 1: But yeah, so the crop is is one of the
Speaker 1: worst rated on records the us D as a result,
Speaker 1: you know, has come in um with yields that are
Speaker 1: are well below average ten ten bushels are so preake
Speaker 1: or below average expected in that hard red um winter
Speaker 1: wheat crop area. Then as a result, we're looking at
Speaker 1: one of the smallest um us winter wheat crops hard
Speaker 1: red winter wheat crops specifically since the sixties. Um. So
Speaker 1: we just keep you know, the hits keep coming, so
Speaker 1: to speak. Now we're just getting started in harvest. And
Speaker 1: so wheat is one of those things where a wheat
Speaker 1: trader will tell you that it takes a lot to
Speaker 1: kill wheat, like after a nuclear bomb where to drop
Speaker 1: you would have cockroaches and wheat, you know what I mean,
Speaker 1: Like you just it's it's very difficult to kill wheat. Now,
Speaker 1: it may not average yield by is what you're hoping for,
Speaker 1: but you may get surprised when you get out into harvest.
Speaker 1: And so we'll get a much better feel, um for
Speaker 1: for what all we're seeing from a production standpoint here
Speaker 1: over the next three to four weeks as harvest starts
Speaker 1: to progress to the north in the hard wheat belt
Speaker 1: and and then the soft wheat belt. UM. But for
Speaker 1: now it does look to be one of the smaller
Speaker 1: crops that we've seen here in the US UM and
Speaker 1: quite some time. Can you just put a few like
Speaker 1: numbers on this, like what is you know, like I
Speaker 1: sort of I don't know the best way to aggregate it,
Speaker 1: but total volume, total acreage or total number of bushels
Speaker 1: what we would normally be looking for. How big a
Speaker 1: part of the market it is, and then what the
Speaker 1: shortfall is going to be if we're really having like
Speaker 1: one of the worst uh planting seasons, one of the lowest. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean we're gonna want to pull up and and see.
Speaker 1: You know. One of the benefits about the the hard
Speaker 1: read winter wheat crop it it gets a lot of
Speaker 1: conversation here um in the you know, and it gets
Speaker 1: a lot of attention from the world market. Everyone tries
Speaker 1: to pay attention, especially considering it it does set the stage.
Speaker 1: One of the things that we have seen is the
Speaker 1: U s d A has anticipated thanks to the increase
Speaker 1: in price and and the tight available supply. So you've
Speaker 1: seen the cash market or at least our export offers
Speaker 1: really kind of outpaced the rest of the world, so
Speaker 1: they have reduced export demand as a result, just because
Speaker 1: we're more expensive. But to take it into you know,
Speaker 1: kind of consideration there as to what you're looking at
Speaker 1: in the world wheat crop or the world wheat supply,
Speaker 1: you know, compared to maybe where we were in two
Speaker 1: thousand twenty even you know, production was about one point
Speaker 1: eight three billion bushels. We're expecting it to come in
Speaker 1: around one point seven three this year versus so I mean,
Speaker 1: you're you're talking a hundred million bushel reduction and overall
Speaker 1: wheat production, but you're seeing ending stocks, you know, deplete substantially.
Speaker 1: For a short period of time there between about two
Speaker 1: thousand fifteen into two thousand eighteen, you know, we saw
Speaker 1: hard read winter weak trade below four dollars, you know,
Speaker 1: more than once, and so that really kind of created
Speaker 1: this environment in which the farmers that traditionally would grow
Speaker 1: wheat looked other crops, especially you know, speaking of milo
Speaker 1: or sorghum. You saw this continue, this big increase in
Speaker 1: Chinese sorghum demand, and so you saw a lot of
Speaker 1: folks really just kind of transition away so you saw
Speaker 1: people transition away, you saw plantings getting smaller. You know,
Speaker 1: as we worked our way into two thousand one, you know,
Speaker 1: you saw a reduction in in area harvested. You see
Speaker 1: another reduction in area harvested this year, especially because of
Speaker 1: the increase in band an abandonment. You know. But one
Speaker 1: of the things that we're seeing is when you break
Speaker 1: it down per class, that's when you know the noticeable
Speaker 1: reduction and supply becomes clear. You know, at one point,
Speaker 1: hard red winter wheat was flirting with you know, above
Speaker 1: five million, close to a billion bushell carry out. That's huge,
Speaker 1: that's that's considered burdensome. Now this year they're expecting carry
Speaker 1: out to be around three hundred and sixty million bushels.
Speaker 1: So it definitely is very evident. And as a result,
Speaker 1: you're seeing the farmer and the commercial elevators in those
Speaker 1: regions become very protective of the supply that they have
Speaker 1: on hand. And really, we we kind of joke in
Speaker 1: the US wheat industry, like the our job is to
Speaker 1: keep our wheat expensive enough to where maybe it doesn't
Speaker 1: fly off the shelves into the global market, um simply
Speaker 1: so we can make sure that we have enough at
Speaker 1: home to to manage our feed use if we were
Speaker 1: to run into a production issue down the road, another
Speaker 1: production issue down the road at this rate. So this
Speaker 1: was kind of going to be my next question. So
Speaker 1: what typically happens in a tight market for a specific crop?
Speaker 1: Do you see farmers start to attempt to grow other
Speaker 1: things like storkam which you already mentioned, And does the
Speaker 1: US tend to try to keep those goods at home
Speaker 1: or those commodities at home rather than export them, And
Speaker 1: what other options are available to farmers and the industry
Speaker 1: to try to offset a bad harvest. Yeah, um, so
Speaker 1: we'll see that. We we tend to see it in
Speaker 1: the cash market. So I always I'm a cash trader.
Speaker 1: I'm a physical trader. You know. My job is to
Speaker 1: to get bushels from the farmers that I work with
Speaker 1: that produced them to the end users that need them,
Speaker 1: you know. And so I I live in the cash
Speaker 1: market every day. And I will tell you the cash
Speaker 1: market is is king no matter how you slice it.
Speaker 1: Whatever the cash market is doing is it will eventually
Speaker 1: transition into futures and in some way, shape or form
Speaker 1: or at the very least, the cash prices is gravity,
Speaker 1: especially in wheat. So, but if we do run into
Speaker 1: a situation where we have a question regarding what production
Speaker 1: looks like, you know, one of the first steps that
Speaker 1: you see is, as I indicated before, everyone kind of
Speaker 1: pulls their arms and legs inside the vehicle. Okay, we
Speaker 1: we we wait, you don't you try to assess the market.
Speaker 1: You let someone um other than you potentially put on
Speaker 1: a couple of trades or make a couple of trades
Speaker 1: to get a good feel as to what the actual
Speaker 1: cash value is. So futures can trade um one price
Speaker 1: uh and depending on what the local supply and demand
Speaker 1: is or what the regional supply and demand is in
Speaker 1: a in a specific location surrounding a specific end user,
Speaker 1: you know you'll see a basis, which is that difference
Speaker 1: between cash price and future Sometimes it trades as at
Speaker 1: a premium, some times it trades at a negative. But
Speaker 1: so what you'll tend to see is is one of
Speaker 1: the first things that happens is the folks that tend
Speaker 1: to traditionally do the selling, whether that's an elevator or
Speaker 1: a farmer. If a crop scare comes about, we stop selling.
Speaker 1: Like that's just human nature, right. If you don't know
Speaker 1: what you're going to have going forward, you stop selling.
Speaker 1: So then the market's job becomes getting it to a
Speaker 1: high enough value to where it entices a pickup and selling. So,
Speaker 1: whether that's a enticing a farmer to liquidate his or
Speaker 1: her bushels at a certain price, maybe it's a you know,
Speaker 1: the farmer has an eight dollar target order in mind,
Speaker 1: or something of that nature. You know, whatever it will
Speaker 1: take to get to those values to really kind of
Speaker 1: entice the farmer or entice the elevator. So there's a
Speaker 1: whole host of things you'll have to be able to
Speaker 1: offset or or you know, provide in in the market
Speaker 1: price itself, you know. And so that's what you'll see
Speaker 1: is is folks will start to discuss the basis is
Speaker 1: increasing and that spreads are you know, spreads are tightening.
Speaker 1: So the other thing is is that spreads will no
Speaker 1: longer incentivize you holding the product out of the pipeline.
Speaker 1: You know, they're going to punish you for doing so.
Speaker 1: So traditionally, in the commercial elevator business, you know, you
Speaker 1: see what we call carry um or contain go and
Speaker 1: you know, if you're your fancy, we just call it
Speaker 1: carry because we're not you know, so you'll see you
Speaker 1: typically we see carry i e. The market isn't paying you,
Speaker 1: we're providing you incentive to keep it out of the pipeline.
Speaker 1: The opposite comes true if if it looks like you're
Speaker 1: going to have a short crop. So one of the
Speaker 1: things that we pay attention to, you know, not only
Speaker 1: is basis whether or not the end user is paying
Speaker 1: more or less yesterday, but what are the spreads doing,
Speaker 1: because that will give us an insight into whether or
Speaker 1: not you could see supply come into the pipeline. And
Speaker 1: so yeah, I mean the first big step that has
Speaker 1: taken as you just stop selling, which is what we
Speaker 1: saw take place in India right like, the concerns started
Speaker 1: to develop that we were selling too much. We were
Speaker 1: uncertain as to what we were going to have come
Speaker 1: into play for new crop, and so the government said
Speaker 1: weld on, you know, we're going to take some time now.
Speaker 1: They did it through measures that you know or are
Speaker 1: seeing in a more government centric UM agricultural production system,
Speaker 1: whereas in the US, UM traders tend to to uh
Speaker 1: manage their own reduction and market exposure, you know, i e.
Speaker 1: They make their bids really or their offers really expensive. Um,
Speaker 1: the end users may firm up bids, you know, things
Speaker 1: of that nature. But um, we just kind of become
Speaker 1: we start to play chicken, you could say, Um, when
Speaker 1: it comes to purchase and sales. What is the shape
Speaker 1: of the futures curve right now? I mean we know
Speaker 1: that a lot of uh, at least you know, up
Speaker 1: until very recently. I can't remember the last time I look,
Speaker 1: but all around the world, whether we're talking about egg
Speaker 1: or metals or energy commodities, we have seen this sort
Speaker 1: of like front month, uh, you know, high premium in
Speaker 1: the front month. What is the shape now of the
Speaker 1: wheat futurest curve? And what is it indicating? That's the
Speaker 1: ironic part um. You know, you pull up the shape
Speaker 1: of the wheat futures curve um, and we saw it go.
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how much attention folks paid
Speaker 1: to to what the market had done here. Um. Upon
Speaker 1: the news of the invasion, we saw some pretty substantial
Speaker 1: inversions um or backwardation developed to where you saw the
Speaker 1: July dece you know, go to a two dollar inverse.
Speaker 1: I mean just something that was just absolutely obscene, something
Speaker 1: that we had never seen. Um, happened before. And as
Speaker 1: a result, it kind of lou um a lot of
Speaker 1: elevators out of the market because they they right, like
Speaker 1: so that I was gonna I was gonna ask like
Speaker 1: their business must be premised on the idea that like
Speaker 1: you know, you hold, they hold right, or they hold
Speaker 1: they hold grain, and if you hold it, you know
Speaker 1: it's grain is priced more valuable in a few months
Speaker 1: or a year or whatever it is, and you get
Speaker 1: some sort of I guess, as you said, carry, But
Speaker 1: it's got to be a terrible business in the opposite
Speaker 1: when there's such a premium currently. Yeah, yeah, And and
Speaker 1: that's what you saw. You saw wheat elevators of flour mills,
Speaker 1: you know, they just basically withdrew bids. So the farmer
Speaker 1: was very frustrated in the sense that the board was
Speaker 1: rallying twelve fifty dollars for Chicago wheat and the end
Speaker 1: users and processors with drew bids. As a result, you know,
Speaker 1: of of the cash market again going back to the
Speaker 1: cash market just basically being destroyed um by that move
Speaker 1: in futures, you saw a lot of activity, You saw
Speaker 1: a lot of folks sleeve. You've seen the spread zone wine.
Speaker 1: So ironically, you know, a lot of folks are talking
Speaker 1: about how wheat is the most bullish commodity out there,
Speaker 1: you know, it's the one thing that we tend to
Speaker 1: hear the most about. But when you look at the spreads,
Speaker 1: they're they're painting substantial carry or what has traditionally been
Speaker 1: solid carry um for the last several years, at least
Speaker 1: out into the march board um, you know, when you're
Speaker 1: looking at the Chicago crop um, and even out into
Speaker 1: the march board when you're you're looking at the Kansas
Speaker 1: City crop um, and so you know, there there's carry,
Speaker 1: there is incentive to hold the crop. But I think
Speaker 1: that's more to do with the fact that the global pipeline,
Speaker 1: or our export business, or our delivery system, you know,
Speaker 1: simply couldn't handle all of the wheat coming off at
Speaker 1: harvest time, you know. And you could say the opposite
Speaker 1: is true and corn and soybeans, where they're pretty heavily
Speaker 1: inverted old crop um to new crop um. Just you know,
Speaker 1: especially I think considering the fact that for wheat, the
Speaker 1: new crop year starts on Wednesday, So for wheat um,
Speaker 1: we have a June to June, and so we're basically
Speaker 1: ending up. We know what we we did for for
Speaker 1: old prop we have an idea of of what will
Speaker 1: be left over at the end of the year. And
Speaker 1: now we're we're facing you know, a new crop coming
Speaker 1: in full bins. Hopefully even with a smaller crop, you know,
Speaker 1: you're still going to have a lot to take off,
Speaker 1: um you know, early on in the season. And so
Speaker 1: that markets providing some incentive and and providing um, you know,
Speaker 1: end users elevators, flour mills, you know, a way of
Speaker 1: of capturing some incentive to to keep that stuff out
Speaker 1: of the pipeline, and that's helping to keep basis firm
Speaker 1: for the farmer. So what happens to sort of end
Speaker 1: user prices in this type of scenario, So for instance,
Speaker 1: the hard red wheat that we use for bread and
Speaker 1: things like that, do bread makers, does the price of
Speaker 1: bread immediately go up because the spot price the input
Speaker 1: cost goes up or is there some sort of hedging
Speaker 1: activity where they might have, you know, um forward, purchased
Speaker 1: their wheat needs a year before at a lower price.
Speaker 1: Like how much of it actually feeds through into consumer
Speaker 1: goods and the things that we eat on a day
Speaker 1: to day basis Yeah. On the plus side, you know,
Speaker 1: the cost of wheat for a flour miller is actually
Speaker 1: a very small I think it's less than a it's
Speaker 1: less than a third of the cost of the overall
Speaker 1: loaf of bread. Um. You know, all of the other
Speaker 1: factors come into play, the transportation and the staffing, the equipment, that, this,
Speaker 1: that and the other thing, and so it really isn't
Speaker 1: a direct correlation. Of course, during times of inflation, all
Speaker 1: other costs are increasing, so it's easy to say, Okay,
Speaker 1: well the cost of wheat is up x per cent,
Speaker 1: so obviously the cost of bread needs to go up
Speaker 1: as well. But that's not necessarily the case. Now you
Speaker 1: are seeing folks that didn't hedge. You know, traditionally you'll
Speaker 1: see the majority of your wheat users in the United
Speaker 1: States at the very least have a very um deep
Speaker 1: and very experienced trading desk. So they're not just sitting there.
Speaker 1: You know, what was me, I didn't realize the price
Speaker 1: of wheat was going up. They're able to hedge, you know,
Speaker 1: they're able to make their purchase says, book their basis levels,
Speaker 1: maybe trade their futures. They may own options against certain
Speaker 1: market moves and things of that nature, you know. So
Speaker 1: there's somewhat isolated. Um. But when you know, Russia invaded
Speaker 1: and you saw the market just surge um limit higher
Speaker 1: day after day after day, you did see them stop.
Speaker 1: You know, they were looking at you know, as a
Speaker 1: wheat miller, um, you know, not a flower end user.
Speaker 1: The wheat miller was looking at making a substantial amount
Speaker 1: of purchases in the July and and looking down the
Speaker 1: barrel of a dollar fifty, you know, in version. And
Speaker 1: so there was a lot of frustration for folks that
Speaker 1: you just simply saw them step out, um step away
Speaker 1: from the market, you know. And and so in times
Speaker 1: of extreme volatility and concern, we have seen that happen. Now,
Speaker 1: obviously it can't last long term, um, you know. And
Speaker 1: for that reason, a lot of these folks have have
Speaker 1: managed to to hedge some of their risk, or at
Speaker 1: the very least are are insulated from a good portion
Speaker 1: of it. But it gets concerning, um, you know, when
Speaker 1: you see big moves like that, and in extremely volatile prices,
Speaker 1: you know, you start to worry about who your your
Speaker 1: end user is or how they're protecting there there there risk.
Speaker 1: So I want to sort of ask you about what
Speaker 1: Tracy and I were discussing in the intro, which is
Speaker 1: is there some underlying frailty that's been exposed in the
Speaker 1: U s AD market or the AG market overall. I mean,
Speaker 1: we talked about this idea. It's like, Okay, we can
Speaker 1: talk about perfect storms and this crazy weather that we've
Speaker 1: got such that we had two years of drought and
Speaker 1: then we got six months of rain all in six
Speaker 1: weeks and so forth. And so obviously in any macro
Speaker 1: environment that is going to rea havoc when the weather's
Speaker 1: uh that unpredictable. But is there so thing else that's
Speaker 1: being exposed here in your view, like if you sort
Speaker 1: of zoom out the fact that we've seen such volatility,
Speaker 1: such high prices and so forth, that is really just
Speaker 1: like cannot be sort of explained by bad luck or
Speaker 1: perfect storm. Yeah, uh yeah, I think, you know, to
Speaker 1: a certain extent. I think one of the things that
Speaker 1: we've seen, um, you know, really kind of become crystal
Speaker 1: clear here as of late, is is the idea that um,
Speaker 1: you know, we've we've transitioned from you know, what the
Speaker 1: US used to be the bread basket of the world, um,
Speaker 1: and when we we ran into ethanol, and when we
Speaker 1: had the drought in twelve and prices ran up, and
Speaker 1: you know, I think the agricultural UM folks, the higher ups,
Speaker 1: the elevators and you know your A, B, C, D
Speaker 1: S and grain and your you know, your egg input
Speaker 1: suppliers and your your equipment suppliers and some of these
Speaker 1: things started to recognize that there was a huge amount
Speaker 1: of opportunity um around the world for far better margin
Speaker 1: than they could ever achieve in the in the United States.
Speaker 1: And you saw this massive expansion and and uh, you know,
Speaker 1: the globalization of our our food supply, which is great.
Speaker 1: We need it to happen. We we have to have
Speaker 1: it happen, UM. But I think you know, one of
Speaker 1: the reasons that we're running into this situation, you know,
Speaker 1: with with your your Middle Eastern countries and your your
Speaker 1: North African countries, and the concern over what takes place, UM,
Speaker 1: you know there is is because they were so heavily
Speaker 1: reliant upon one supplier. UM. You know, over sixty of
Speaker 1: their purchases were made from Ukraine, which is great, but
Speaker 1: it's not great when something happens in the supply. Now
Speaker 1: granted you we haven't had a lot of just wars
Speaker 1: just break out randomly in our our food producers. So
Speaker 1: maybe you know, you didn't expect that to take place,
Speaker 1: but you know, I would say one of the things
Speaker 1: that this has really kind of put a spotlight on is,
Speaker 1: you know, for one, what it is that China is doing.
Speaker 1: And I don't think that even can be answered. You know,
Speaker 1: part of the reason that spurred all of this was
Speaker 1: the substantial move by China to to really kind of
Speaker 1: increase their government stockpiles. You know, there are exports increased.
Speaker 1: You know, gosh, you can't even say how how big
Speaker 1: their exports increased, because we went from basically what was
Speaker 1: zero to twenty eight million metric ton of of corn imports,
Speaker 1: you know, last year from China. You know, they're looking
Speaker 1: to to import twenty three million metric tonue, I mean,
Speaker 1: and and prior to that baseline, you know, max was
Speaker 1: was a handful you know, a few metric ton and
Speaker 1: so that that really changed the global pipeline and I
Speaker 1: think it kind of put um highlighted the power that
Speaker 1: China has when it comes to global logistics and global
Speaker 1: pipelines and global demand and all of these things, you know,
Speaker 1: And I would say that's That's probably one of the
Speaker 1: biggest is that you know, prior to this excessive, exceptional
Speaker 1: increase in Chinese demand, and we were actually talking about
Speaker 1: burden some stocks. I mean in the head of the
Speaker 1: fall of two thousand twenty, you know, going into late
Speaker 1: twenty before every was really paying attention to grains. You know,
Speaker 1: we were looking at the potential of a three billion
Speaker 1: bushel corn carry out, which is almost three times what
Speaker 1: some folks are expecting for this year's carry out. You know,
Speaker 1: we were talking carry out yep. So when we were
Speaker 1: done at the end of every year, we have enough
Speaker 1: left over to get us into new crop production. So
Speaker 1: my entire life is always revolving around what are ending
Speaker 1: stocks or carry out, what is that going to look like,
Speaker 1: how much are we gonna have left over at the
Speaker 1: end of next year, what does that mean for for
Speaker 1: a new crop production and demand? And then what will
Speaker 1: we have left over at the end of that year? Um.
Speaker 1: And that's simply what we pay attention to in grains.
Speaker 1: But yeah, so prior to that big increase in Chinese demand,
Speaker 1: you know, we were kind of worried about what we
Speaker 1: would be looking at, you know globally. Um, when it
Speaker 1: came to burdens own burdens some stocks. Now of course
Speaker 1: you saw you know, major production issues in Brazil back
Speaker 1: to back. You know, Larnina looks like it's poised to
Speaker 1: to make a third appearance, and that tends to read
Speaker 1: havoc on South American weather. Um, it tends to cause
Speaker 1: droughts in the southern planes, you know, things of that nature.
Speaker 1: But I would say, you know, probably one of the
Speaker 1: biggest things that this market move is is trying to
Speaker 1: spotlight on, is is just you know, how vulnerable we
Speaker 1: are in the free market to to someone kind of
Speaker 1: stepping in and and taking I don't want to say
Speaker 1: more than their share, because it's an inadequate statement, you know,
Speaker 1: to use, but you know, we're somewhat vulnerable to to
Speaker 1: some folks just kind of stepping in and saying, you know, hey,
Speaker 1: we'll take this. It's cheap, we're gonna take all of it,
Speaker 1: thank you, and then other countries saying we want to
Speaker 1: avoid that person coming in or those folks coming in
Speaker 1: and taking everything, so we're going to restrict our our exports.
Speaker 1: So we just really saw this whole entire flip, you know,
Speaker 1: in in global availability, you know, due to the fact
Speaker 1: that China really kind of stepped in and started soaking
Speaker 1: up every piece, every kernel of feed grade and they
Speaker 1: could get you know, around the world. Yeah, this is
Speaker 1: something we actually recorded a whole episode on this with
Speaker 1: Scott Irwin. I think it was one of the episodes
Speaker 1: that we did, yeah, about China buying up and building
Speaker 1: up its stockpiles. But so, I guess a natural question
Speaker 1: here is what can countries do in order to ease
Speaker 1: this kind of tight supply. So we've already seen a
Speaker 1: cutback on exports. I've seen some talk about things like
Speaker 1: subsidies for farmers, but there seems to be debate over
Speaker 1: whether or not those could actually make the problem even
Speaker 1: worse because people would be incentivized to just not grow anything. Um.
Speaker 1: And this is sort of a classic criticism of subsidies.
Speaker 1: But what exactly could be done here? What sort of
Speaker 1: policies would help? Um? I think it's so hard. I
Speaker 1: mean it really outside of of improving weather or incentivizing
Speaker 1: you know, and maybe that is through through subsidies or
Speaker 1: something of that nature, you know, which we've seen. I mean,
Speaker 1: we've we've helped farmers with crop insurance. It's been one
Speaker 1: of the things that that we've seen as of late
Speaker 1: is is, you know, some conversation about whether or not
Speaker 1: crop insurance hinders the farmer or incentivizes the farmer not
Speaker 1: to plant. You know, one of the things that would
Speaker 1: point out in that conversation is the current crop insurance
Speaker 1: support price for December twenty two corn is a dollar
Speaker 1: thirty dollar forty below where the market is currently trading.
Speaker 1: So the market is going to incentivize a continuation of planting.
Speaker 1: That's going to be the market's job, even if that
Speaker 1: crop insurance prices is below. So helping provide that safety
Speaker 1: net via crop insurance or something of that nature to
Speaker 1: where as long as the producers is putting in um
Speaker 1: a good faith effort to to get that crop planted
Speaker 1: and a good faith effort to make sure that they're
Speaker 1: they're doing all that they can to try to produce
Speaker 1: is large of a crop as what they possibly can.
Speaker 1: You know, I think that would help around the world
Speaker 1: for a lot of folks, And I think you're seeing
Speaker 1: countries introduce that. You saw China um basically credit the
Speaker 1: turn of their winter wheat crop to the millions of
Speaker 1: dollars that they poured into farmers in certain provinces to
Speaker 1: make sure that they were fertilizing and using fun decide
Speaker 1: and doing everything they could to kind of maximize production.
Speaker 1: To me, I think the market is going to do
Speaker 1: its job as long as mother nature cooperates. Um. You know.
Speaker 1: I think one of the things that you know you're
Speaker 1: seeing right now is you're you're seeing December twenty three
Speaker 1: corn trading near six fifty. You know, you're seeing crop
Speaker 1: prices for for next year's harvest eighteen months from now. Um,
Speaker 1: you know, trading at at relatively high levels. Wheat for
Speaker 1: next year at a eleven dollars and fourteen cents, you know.
Speaker 1: So I think the market will do the job to
Speaker 1: incentivize I think you'll see some continued expansions in South America. UM.
Speaker 1: I think you'll, you know, as as long as farmers
Speaker 1: are continue to be incentivized here in the US, you're
Speaker 1: going to see them, you know, roll past final planting
Speaker 1: dates of whether allows it and some of these other things,
Speaker 1: because the market price says, you know, you should be planting. Um.
Speaker 1: And so I think that's the main thing. Just providing
Speaker 1: a safe place to land if there were to be
Speaker 1: a major weather issue is probably one of the best
Speaker 1: things they could do. Can you talk a little bit
Speaker 1: about what's happening on the input cost side UM with
Speaker 1: your client? Of course, a big story of last year
Speaker 1: has been the surge and the cost of fertilizer UM,
Speaker 1: although there was it was actually Bloomberg story yesterday about
Speaker 1: actually a significant pullback in the last month. But what
Speaker 1: are the different input costs or the primary input costs
Speaker 1: for your clients and what do you see happening there.
Speaker 1: Has there been any sort of like stabilization improvement, et cetera. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think one of the biggest things we've seen is
Speaker 1: everyone kind of breathed a sigh of relief in the
Speaker 1: sense that there was a real concern that we were
Speaker 1: going to have shortages. UM. No one that I've seen
Speaker 1: or heard from across the country is has really run
Speaker 1: into a situation where if a farmer needed a fertilizer,
Speaker 1: you know, of of of a certain type, that he
Speaker 1: or she couldn't get ahold of it. Prices have increased exponentially.
Speaker 1: Of course, in that UM their record high. They they
Speaker 1: have stayed well elevated beyond when a lot of folks
Speaker 1: thought that they would UM. So that's created some concern,
Speaker 1: but you've also seen, as we talked about before, you know,
Speaker 1: the car market basically has rallied almost two dollars fallen
Speaker 1: off a bit as as of late, but it had rallied, um,
Speaker 1: you know, a dollar after the the invasion um and
Speaker 1: another dollar after the Planning Intentions report. So you saw
Speaker 1: a pretty substantial increase in the amount of money that
Speaker 1: the farmer can get out of an acre of corn.
Speaker 1: You know, you can multiply seven dollars and in thirty
Speaker 1: cents times anywhere between a hundred and fifty to two hundred,
Speaker 1: to get a good feel for what a revenue, um,
Speaker 1: what kind of revenue of farmer is looking at. So
Speaker 1: there is room now obviously that's gross revenue, and there
Speaker 1: all of the costs that continue to pile up, you know,
Speaker 1: really kind of put us in a situation to where
Speaker 1: we're working harder, we're laying out way more cash than
Speaker 1: we ever have before for the same hope of the
Speaker 1: same margin. And so that's one of the things that
Speaker 1: it feels as though the cash outlay being as high
Speaker 1: as what it was and being increased as much as
Speaker 1: what it was, has put us in a situation to
Speaker 1: where there's far more stress this early in the marketing
Speaker 1: year to make sure that the farmer gets it right.
Speaker 1: You know. Obviously they don't want to sell too soon
Speaker 1: and and miss out on a major rally if we
Speaker 1: were to see some sort of drought developer or something
Speaker 1: like that. But they don't want to not sell and
Speaker 1: watch the market fall back to crop insurance or lower,
Speaker 1: you know. And and so it's it's put us in
Speaker 1: a pretty tight situation here where we've we've outlaid a
Speaker 1: more cash than we ever have before and and created
Speaker 1: you know, far more worry than we ever have either
Speaker 1: as well. Huh, So what should we be watching for
Speaker 1: in terms of signs of improvement? Like what are some
Speaker 1: things are indicators that we should keep our eye on. Well,
Speaker 1: we really want to watch what the weather does here
Speaker 1: for the next four to six weeks, specifically for corn
Speaker 1: and for wheat. You know, but wheat harvest is gonna
Speaker 1: get started or has started in Texas, is going to
Speaker 1: get started, and so we'll want to see, you know,
Speaker 1: really kind of pay attention or at least I'll be
Speaker 1: paying attention to to what those cash markets look like,
Speaker 1: what takes place, you know, what the reports are you know,
Speaker 1: from a yield standpoint, but from from from someone on
Speaker 1: the outside looking in. The biggest thing that that I
Speaker 1: would recommend, you know, really kind of paying attention to
Speaker 1: is obviously what developments we see in the Rush Ukraine situation.
Speaker 1: You know, where we've we've never seen it to where
Speaker 1: we have upboards of sixty five million metric ton potentially
Speaker 1: you know, sitting in countries that you know habit but
Speaker 1: may not be looking to ship it or may not
Speaker 1: be able to ship it into the global market. So
Speaker 1: if we see a shift in that, things will change.
Speaker 1: If we see these humanitarian corridors open, if we see
Speaker 1: some rollbacks you know potentially on the sanctions that Russia's
Speaker 1: asking for something of that nature, you know, that's going
Speaker 1: to have a huge influence on global supply. The other
Speaker 1: thing is obviously whether through the month of June into
Speaker 1: July we want to see decent rain, not too heavy,
Speaker 1: and warm temperatures, you know, but not too warm. So
Speaker 1: it's that's gonna be the hard part is watching that.
Speaker 1: And then the other thing to really kind of pay
Speaker 1: attention to is going to be our shipment pace. In
Speaker 1: my opinion, you know, when it comes to export sales.
Speaker 1: The bulk of our export business currently for for corn
Speaker 1: and as it stands, you know, recently for for swayabeans
Speaker 1: has been to China. But we're starting to see, you know,
Speaker 1: this week was huge for corn shipments swaybeing shipments were
Speaker 1: a little bit below average, but sales paces dropped off substantially.
Speaker 1: So the question now becomes, do you see China slow
Speaker 1: down on on what they're taking and could that result
Speaker 1: in you know, a potential reduction and export outlook and
Speaker 1: an increase in overall supply because China is unable to
Speaker 1: to take the bustles that they you know, had already purchased.
Speaker 1: So those will be the main factors that we're watching
Speaker 1: here over that here six weeks. So I just want
Speaker 1: to like pivot to one other topic before we go.
Speaker 1: And you know, you talked about how you're in the
Speaker 1: cash market. Your job is to connect consumers of actual
Speaker 1: grains with producers of actual grains, and you know, Tracy
Speaker 1: and I recently did an interview with Matt piet who's
Speaker 1: the CEO of Arrived Logistics, and we talked about, like,
Speaker 1: you know, the the sort of exponentially complicated world of
Speaker 1: trucking and freight, and there's all different kinds of products
Speaker 1: that exist, all different types of destinations. It's a really
Speaker 1: hard problem. And of course, you know, moving a truckload
Speaker 1: of saying computers or couches or phones is going to
Speaker 1: be different than moving a truckload of wheat because it's
Speaker 1: different handling and different temperature and so forth. And I'm
Speaker 1: sure as if you could talk a little bit about
Speaker 1: that market of the physical moving of wheat, how that works,
Speaker 1: and like what are what makes it difficult and like
Speaker 1: what are the sort of opportunities there in terms of
Speaker 1: how could improve Yeah, um, I it is. It is
Speaker 1: probably my favorite part of the job, but is the
Speaker 1: most um the part of the job that makes me
Speaker 1: pull my hair out the most. And so yeah, you know,
Speaker 1: wheat movement, a lot of of wheat movement, you know,
Speaker 1: for us locally here in Michigan is done via truck
Speaker 1: and so you know, one of the things that you
Speaker 1: really kind of look at is trying to make sure
Speaker 1: that you know, from a farmer's standpoint, you know, not
Speaker 1: a lot of farmers are sitting around their bins waiting
Speaker 1: for a truck to show up. And so one of
Speaker 1: the biggest struggles that we have, obviously is communication between
Speaker 1: truckers and and and where they're looking to load, you know,
Speaker 1: an understanding or a follow through of of what dumped where.
Speaker 1: You know, especially now that prices are increasing as they are,
Speaker 1: you know, you're looking at a pretty substantial price tag
Speaker 1: on you know, moving eighteen dollars soy beans a thousand bushel,
Speaker 1: you know, a thousand bushel at a crack. You know,
Speaker 1: you're basically, I I tell my customers to make sure
Speaker 1: they're keeping track of everyone that loads, who it is,
Speaker 1: license plates, everything, you know, basically ask for a deposit
Speaker 1: of their firstborn child because you're you're shipping you know,
Speaker 1: eighteen thousand dollars worth of wheat with a thousand busheal load,
Speaker 1: I mean you your soy beans? Excuse me. You know,
Speaker 1: you've got to recognize what is going out from a
Speaker 1: cash standpoint, and so there's always a real concern that
Speaker 1: you're gonna lose a load. You know, that you're gonna
Speaker 1: run into a situation where someone maybe loads something, says
Speaker 1: they're taking it to one end user and it just
Speaker 1: you know, you just can't track it down. And if
Speaker 1: you don't have the right the right information regarding who
Speaker 1: loaded it, where it was supposed to go, you know,
Speaker 1: when it was loaded and when it should have been there.
Speaker 1: And then the follow through of making sure that a
Speaker 1: pond delivery you received the ticke it, you know, or
Speaker 1: have a copy of the ticket that is as good
Speaker 1: as money. That that a ticket, you know, it's a
Speaker 1: receipt of delivery, you know, is saying this is mine,
Speaker 1: I delivered it. This is that money belongs to me,
Speaker 1: you know. And so all of these things have become
Speaker 1: incredibly difficult and as a result, have made it you know,
Speaker 1: to where potentials, you know, the farmers opportunities may be
Speaker 1: a little bit more limited in the sense that because
Speaker 1: of the inability to track or because of the inability
Speaker 1: to feel comfortable with with you know, loading something or
Speaker 1: getting someone in there to properly load you know, you
Speaker 1: may not have them do uh, they may not go
Speaker 1: into that certain market or something of that nature. And so, yeah,
Speaker 1: there's a lot of moving pieces with grain and feed,
Speaker 1: especially feed. You know, you cattle still eat on Christmas,
Speaker 1: you know. So these sorts of things in fraid have
Speaker 1: been you know, very difficult to kind of pin down.
Speaker 1: And one of the things that we've been trying to
Speaker 1: work on, is you know, how can you get established
Speaker 1: to where you can utilize technology to let you know
Speaker 1: when the truck is is around the corner because the
Speaker 1: driver forgot to call. These types of things automatically bloat
Speaker 1: a ticket upon delivery, so you have access to it
Speaker 1: and no one it will be settled, you know. And
Speaker 1: so it's been a work in progress for part of
Speaker 1: the reason for all of the reasons that you stated earlier,
Speaker 1: in the sense that it's just not it's not a
Speaker 1: when a happens b takes place because in great movement,
Speaker 1: you know, a lot of different things can happen. You
Speaker 1: can have a load rejected, you could have you'd miss
Speaker 1: a dump time or a loading time, and so a
Speaker 1: different truck has to come in or something of that nature.
Speaker 1: And so it's still very much a work in progress.
Speaker 1: But it's one of those situations where if you could
Speaker 1: find the system to crack that, um, you know, you
Speaker 1: would be you would be a hero, just simply because
Speaker 1: of all of the complications that come from uh, you know,
Speaker 1: not being able to to really nail down that that
Speaker 1: freight component. Cattle still eat on Christmas would be a
Speaker 1: really great I might have the write one. Andrew said, sir,
Speaker 1: it's always great to have you on the show. Thank
Speaker 1: you so much for coming back. I really appreciate it.
Speaker 1: Thank you for having me. I enjoy the heck out
Speaker 1: of it. Thanks Aie. That was so much. Yeah, it's
Speaker 1: so crazy that, like, after years of drought, that we
Speaker 1: get that the farmers got like a half a year's
Speaker 1: rain in a in a matter of leaks. Yeah. I mean,
Speaker 1: one thing I would say is that if this kind
Speaker 1: of volatility and weather patterns keeps continuing, then it would
Speaker 1: seem that there's a fundamental change that has taken place
Speaker 1: when it comes to the weather. The other thing that
Speaker 1: I thought was interesting was Angie's suggestion of China being
Speaker 1: this massive buyer that sort of contributed to an overall
Speaker 1: level of tightness in the market that makes it maybe
Speaker 1: may be less able to deal with shorter term changes
Speaker 1: in particular hearts or crops. Yeah, you just don't have
Speaker 1: much much slack at all. And then you know, thinking
Speaker 1: about like, so, okay, what is that. Yes, weather is
Speaker 1: always volatile, right, I mean farmers have been dealing with
Speaker 1: volatile rather weather for you know, since the history of farming.
Speaker 1: But then you know, you sort of think about, Okay,
Speaker 1: there really were a lot of unusual things that happened
Speaker 1: in the last two years. One of them was the
Speaker 1: sort of emergence of China as this sort of like
Speaker 1: buyer of everything and trying to trying to grab all
Speaker 1: the grains it can, and you sort of wonder like
Speaker 1: whether there are some similarities between what's going on in
Speaker 1: grain and what we see in like retail, where it's
Speaker 1: really hard to forecast and it's really hard to know
Speaker 1: what is a sustainable trend versus something that was distinct
Speaker 1: to the last two years that's not going to persist.
Speaker 1: The agricultural bullet. Agricultural bullet, Yeah, that's affecting what bulls
Speaker 1: actually eat, cattle who have to eat on Christmas. I'm
Speaker 1: just gonna keep going, Okay, um, you should write that song.
Speaker 1: I will, I will for sure. Okay, alright, Well, I
Speaker 1: mean it sounds like per Angie. One of the things
Speaker 1: to look out for is obviously what's happening in Russia
Speaker 1: and Ukraine, but also weather for the next four to
Speaker 1: six weeks. So everyone, uh, you know, state glued to
Speaker 1: your various meteorology apps. I guess it's it's always weather
Speaker 1: in the end, I mean in the end, right, Like
Speaker 1: that really is like what this market is all about.
Speaker 1: Because if yeah, yeah we need we need dome dome agriculture,
Speaker 1: that probably okay, shall we leave it there? Leave it there? Alright?
Speaker 1: This has been another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe Why Isn't All? You can
Speaker 1: follow me on Twitter at the Stalwart. Follow our guest
Speaker 1: Angie set Her. She's on Twitter at Goddess of Grain.
Speaker 1: Follow our producer Kerman Rodriguez at Kerman armand followed the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg head of podcast, Francesca Leavi at Francesca Today, and
Speaker 1: check out all of our podcas casts at Bloomberg, into
Speaker 1: the handle at podcasts. Thanks for listening.