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Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Joe wi Isn't and I'm Tracy Halloway. Tracy, you know, obviously,

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Speaker 1: when we talk about inflation, which we talk about all

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Speaker 1: the time, a lot of the converse, a lot yeah,

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Speaker 1: has to do of course, with the macro monetary policy,

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Speaker 1: fiscal policy, the compensation for years of under investment in

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Speaker 1: key commodities or key industries. But it really does seem

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Speaker 1: like in some areas, I don't know if luck is

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Speaker 1: the right word, but there are some areas where things

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Speaker 1: are contributing to shortages that do seem like sort of

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Speaker 1: like bad luck and not necessarily related to the economic

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Speaker 1: cycle directly. But here's the thing, So, yes, I agree

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Speaker 1: with you, but it feels like that bad luck just

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Speaker 1: keeps continuing, right. It feels like we've had a number

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Speaker 1: of specifically commodities at this point in time where we

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Speaker 1: talk about, oh, a perfect storm of factors have come

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Speaker 1: together to drive coffee prices higher, or wheat prices higher,

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Speaker 1: or soybean prices higher or whatever. And it's always sort

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Speaker 1: of different factors. Some of them have an underlying thing

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Speaker 1: in common, which would be the weather. But it just

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Speaker 1: seems to keep happening, and I guess, yeah, it's weird,

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Speaker 1: and I guess it makes me wonder whether or not

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Speaker 1: there's something structural at play, like maybe when it comes

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Speaker 1: to certain commodities, something about the market is just less

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Speaker 1: resilient than it. You know, you're toetally right. I think

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Speaker 1: back to we probably had a number of episodes where

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Speaker 1: like the perfect storm in this so the perfect storm

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Speaker 1: and lumber, the perfect storm at the ports, and it's like,

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Speaker 1: if you keep having perfect storms over and over, right,

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Speaker 1: maybe they're just normal storms, and be they might reveal

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Speaker 1: so thing underlying that maybe about the market or about

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Speaker 1: the underlying good that it doesn't take much to wind

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Speaker 1: up in a perfect storm, because perfect storms aren't supposed

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Speaker 1: to happen all the time exactly. It pains me to

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Speaker 1: quote to lab but maybe there's a sort of anti

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Speaker 1: fragile thing happening here. But I think I think we

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Speaker 1: should dig into this, right and I think we should

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Speaker 1: look at a specific crop or commodity that has experienced

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Speaker 1: a perfect storm last year, And we talked about it

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Speaker 1: back then, and I think the title of the episode

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Speaker 1: was actually a perfect storm for this particular crop with

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Speaker 1: the heat. And now fast forward to two and it's

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Speaker 1: even more of a perfect storm. You still have bad weather,

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Speaker 1: you still have subpar yields on crops, and now you

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Speaker 1: also have what's happening in Ukraine and Russia which is

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Speaker 1: also eaten into the global market. So it's even more

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Speaker 1: of a perfect storm perfect or storm. Clear is that

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Speaker 1: plantings of wheat in the US and so just basically

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Speaker 1: the pace of new crop plantings has been really dismal

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Speaker 1: in which does not pretend good things for the wheat supply,

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Speaker 1: does not pretend good things for food inflation and food

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Speaker 1: shortages to ease dramatically. So we're going to dig into

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Speaker 1: what's going on. So we're gonna return with uh, a

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Speaker 1: guest we've spoken to last year with the original perfect

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Speaker 1: storm in the space, we're gonna be speaking with Angie

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Speaker 1: sets Her. She is the co founder of Conscious r I,

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Speaker 1: which helps farmers manage their risk, hedge and so forth.

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Speaker 1: And so Angie, thank you so much for coming back

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Speaker 1: on Odd Lots, Thanks for having me. We're just talking

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Speaker 1: about how long it's been. It was just late last fall,

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Speaker 1: but I'm pretty sure it's been a decade, uh, if

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Speaker 1: not more. UM in the egg space. Currently, it's what

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Speaker 1: it feels like. Last fall feels like a really long

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Speaker 1: time ago objectively, so we just uh time we had

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Speaker 1: you back, so uh planting for wheat, they're really dismal, right, yeah,

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Speaker 1: so spring wheat. So it's important to kind of one

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Speaker 1: of the fun things that I love about my job

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Speaker 1: is to be able to kind of educate or or

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Speaker 1: kind of give you insight into all of the wonderful

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Speaker 1: classes of wheat um. And So in Kansas City, in

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Speaker 1: the southern Plains, the Kansas City wheats what we call

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Speaker 1: it um it it the southern plains grows hard red

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Speaker 1: winter wheat. And then in the eastern corn belt, so

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Speaker 1: east of the Mississippi down to the Gulf of Mexico

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Speaker 1: up into Michigan where I am, we grow soft red

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Speaker 1: winter wheat and soft white winter wheats. So we actually

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Speaker 1: have farmers plant in the fall um on the soft

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Speaker 1: red winter wheat side in the eastern corn belt here,

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Speaker 1: specifically here in Michigan and in some of the states

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Speaker 1: in the Great Lakes areas, they had a poor planting

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Speaker 1: progress or poor planting weather. Um last fall, we just

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Speaker 1: weren't able to get the swaybeans off in time to

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Speaker 1: get the wheat in in time. Winter kind of came

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Speaker 1: on a little early, so we saw a pretty significant

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Speaker 1: reduction in our acreage here um in Michigan and in

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Speaker 1: some surrounding states. In the southern plains, they're dealing with

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Speaker 1: the drought. So we can get to that later. But yes,

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Speaker 1: in the spring and wheat belt, which is actually the

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Speaker 1: most important because that's kind of where we really had

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Speaker 1: leaned heavily on a year ago, was okay, we we

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Speaker 1: can manage through. You know this of course before the

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Speaker 1: Russia Ukraine situation and some of these other things. You know,

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Speaker 1: we can really manage through with a tighter wheat crop

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Speaker 1: if we can make sure that the spring wheat crop

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Speaker 1: looks good. But we obviously had a major drought in

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Speaker 1: the Canadian prairies and into the spring wheat areas of

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Speaker 1: the United States. So spring wheats grown in Montana, North Dakota,

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Speaker 1: parts of South Dakota, and uh western um Minnesota. And

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Speaker 1: so if if you look at a summary of rainfall

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Speaker 1: um leading up to about the first of April one

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Speaker 1: planting season would kick off, they had stayed um incredibly dry.

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Speaker 1: So in a you know, cruel twist of irony. We

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Speaker 1: started the year concern that we were going to see

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Speaker 1: continued drought development, and we had been so exceptionally dry

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Speaker 1: for so long we were nervous about what would take place.

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Speaker 1: So you know, in true mother nature form over what's

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Speaker 1: taken place the last couple of years, she brought all

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Speaker 1: of the rain that you would want to have seen

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Speaker 1: in the six months prior in about six weeks time.

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Speaker 1: And so yeah, we've seen UM record UH delays and planting,

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Speaker 1: specifically in in North Dakota and in Minnesota. Most of

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Speaker 1: them we feel UM should be close to have being

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Speaker 1: able to catch up prior to final planting final insurance

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Speaker 1: planting dates the middle of this week. UM. There was

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Speaker 1: a lot of progress that has taken place, although it

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Speaker 1: took place in in less than ideal conditions and and

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Speaker 1: so some farmers are are crossing their fingers and holding

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Speaker 1: their breath that uh, we're we're able to see that

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Speaker 1: crop come up and and get a normal year of production.

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Speaker 1: So this is a really good reminder that there are

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Speaker 1: different types of wheat that are planted at different times

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Speaker 1: of the year and in different parts of the country.

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Speaker 1: Can you give us an idea of what yields actually

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Speaker 1: look like on some of those crops at the moment.

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Speaker 1: And my understanding is that the U. S Department of

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Speaker 1: Agriculture also grades the crops, you know, give some like

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Speaker 1: excellent designations or poor designations. What does it actually look

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Speaker 1: like right now? How bad is it out? Yeah, So

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Speaker 1: the softwad wheat belt, like I said, the eastern region

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Speaker 1: of the country, we're doing pretty good. Um. Things look good.

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Speaker 1: We continue to get reasonable rain, the wheat crops starting

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Speaker 1: to head out, um, and you want to see some

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Speaker 1: continued rain, um, you know, for the next couple of

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Speaker 1: few weeks here until we get closer to harvest. Here

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Speaker 1: in Michigan, we're the last ones in the Software wheat

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Speaker 1: belt to to roll with harvest and that usually takes

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Speaker 1: place the week after the fourth of July. So the

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Speaker 1: Software wheat crop is used for cakes, doughnuts. You know,

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Speaker 1: we like to say that we're the fun crop. Um.

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Speaker 1: It's used for the fun stuff. Um. And the hard

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Speaker 1: read w crop is is really where a lot of

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Speaker 1: the condition ratings because the spring wheat crop is is

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Speaker 1: just getting planted, so we haven't had a chance yet

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Speaker 1: to to see what those look like. But the hard

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Speaker 1: red winter wheat crop UM in in the southern plains

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Speaker 1: is one of the worst rated crops um on record. Um.

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Speaker 1: As a result, the U. S d A has has

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Speaker 1: lowered yield expectations, you know, with with acreage and yield

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Speaker 1: expectations as is and the expected abandonment. So basically what

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Speaker 1: you could see farmers do is is they could come

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Speaker 1: into spring and recognize that the stand of their crop

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Speaker 1: is is poor um and that the potential for the

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Speaker 1: crop is is below average, and they can then transition

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Speaker 1: into a different crop. They may choose to um, switch

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Speaker 1: to corn, maybe milo, maybe soybeans, depending on how planting

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Speaker 1: is going, something of that nature. Uh, sorghum. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: so we'll call it milow or sorghum, depending on where

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Speaker 1: you're at in the country. Um. So that's the that's

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Speaker 1: one of those fun Uh here in the industry we

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Speaker 1: call it milo, but yeah, it's sorghum. Um. They may

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Speaker 1: switch over that. Especially store gum is a very drought

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Speaker 1: tolerant crop. So if they're in the western portions of

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Speaker 1: Kansas and parts of Texas that haven't seen the amount

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Speaker 1: of rain that they had hoped for the Oklahoma Panhandle, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, you could see that transition take place. Um.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, so the crop is is one of the

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Speaker 1: worst rated on records the us D as a result,

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Speaker 1: you know, has come in um with yields that are

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Speaker 1: are well below average ten ten bushels are so preake

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Speaker 1: or below average expected in that hard red um winter

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Speaker 1: wheat crop area. Then as a result, we're looking at

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Speaker 1: one of the smallest um us winter wheat crops hard

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Speaker 1: red winter wheat crops specifically since the sixties. Um. So

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Speaker 1: we just keep you know, the hits keep coming, so

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Speaker 1: to speak. Now we're just getting started in harvest. And

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Speaker 1: so wheat is one of those things where a wheat

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Speaker 1: trader will tell you that it takes a lot to

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Speaker 1: kill wheat, like after a nuclear bomb where to drop

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Speaker 1: you would have cockroaches and wheat, you know what I mean,

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Speaker 1: Like you just it's it's very difficult to kill wheat. Now,

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Speaker 1: it may not average yield by is what you're hoping for,

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Speaker 1: but you may get surprised when you get out into harvest.

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Speaker 1: And so we'll get a much better feel, um for

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Speaker 1: for what all we're seeing from a production standpoint here

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Speaker 1: over the next three to four weeks as harvest starts

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Speaker 1: to progress to the north in the hard wheat belt

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Speaker 1: and and then the soft wheat belt. UM. But for

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Speaker 1: now it does look to be one of the smaller

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Speaker 1: crops that we've seen here in the US UM and

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Speaker 1: quite some time. Can you just put a few like

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Speaker 1: numbers on this, like what is you know, like I

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Speaker 1: sort of I don't know the best way to aggregate it,

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Speaker 1: but total volume, total acreage or total number of bushels

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Speaker 1: what we would normally be looking for. How big a

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Speaker 1: part of the market it is, and then what the

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Speaker 1: shortfall is going to be if we're really having like

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Speaker 1: one of the worst uh planting seasons, one of the lowest. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean we're gonna want to pull up and and see.

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Speaker 1: You know. One of the benefits about the the hard

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Speaker 1: read winter wheat crop it it gets a lot of

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Speaker 1: conversation here um in the you know, and it gets

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Speaker 1: a lot of attention from the world market. Everyone tries

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Speaker 1: to pay attention, especially considering it it does set the stage.

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Speaker 1: One of the things that we have seen is the

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Speaker 1: U s d A has anticipated thanks to the increase

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Speaker 1: in price and and the tight available supply. So you've

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Speaker 1: seen the cash market or at least our export offers

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Speaker 1: really kind of outpaced the rest of the world, so

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Speaker 1: they have reduced export demand as a result, just because

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Speaker 1: we're more expensive. But to take it into you know,

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Speaker 1: kind of consideration there as to what you're looking at

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Speaker 1: in the world wheat crop or the world wheat supply,

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Speaker 1: you know, compared to maybe where we were in two

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Speaker 1: thousand twenty even you know, production was about one point

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Speaker 1: eight three billion bushels. We're expecting it to come in

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Speaker 1: around one point seven three this year versus so I mean,

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Speaker 1: you're you're talking a hundred million bushel reduction and overall

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Speaker 1: wheat production, but you're seeing ending stocks, you know, deplete substantially.

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Speaker 1: For a short period of time there between about two

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Speaker 1: thousand fifteen into two thousand eighteen, you know, we saw

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Speaker 1: hard read winter weak trade below four dollars, you know,

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Speaker 1: more than once, and so that really kind of created

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Speaker 1: this environment in which the farmers that traditionally would grow

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Speaker 1: wheat looked other crops, especially you know, speaking of milo

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Speaker 1: or sorghum. You saw this continue, this big increase in

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Speaker 1: Chinese sorghum demand, and so you saw a lot of

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Speaker 1: folks really just kind of transition away so you saw

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Speaker 1: people transition away, you saw plantings getting smaller. You know,

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Speaker 1: as we worked our way into two thousand one, you know,

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Speaker 1: you saw a reduction in in area harvested. You see

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Speaker 1: another reduction in area harvested this year, especially because of

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Speaker 1: the increase in band an abandonment. You know. But one

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Speaker 1: of the things that we're seeing is when you break

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Speaker 1: it down per class, that's when you know the noticeable

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Speaker 1: reduction and supply becomes clear. You know, at one point,

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Speaker 1: hard red winter wheat was flirting with you know, above

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Speaker 1: five million, close to a billion bushell carry out. That's huge,

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Speaker 1: that's that's considered burdensome. Now this year they're expecting carry

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Speaker 1: out to be around three hundred and sixty million bushels.

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Speaker 1: So it definitely is very evident. And as a result,

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Speaker 1: you're seeing the farmer and the commercial elevators in those

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Speaker 1: regions become very protective of the supply that they have

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Speaker 1: on hand. And really, we we kind of joke in

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Speaker 1: the US wheat industry, like the our job is to

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Speaker 1: keep our wheat expensive enough to where maybe it doesn't

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Speaker 1: fly off the shelves into the global market, um simply

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Speaker 1: so we can make sure that we have enough at

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Speaker 1: home to to manage our feed use if we were

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Speaker 1: to run into a production issue down the road, another

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Speaker 1: production issue down the road at this rate. So this

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Speaker 1: was kind of going to be my next question. So

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Speaker 1: what typically happens in a tight market for a specific crop?

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Speaker 1: Do you see farmers start to attempt to grow other

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Speaker 1: things like storkam which you already mentioned, And does the

255
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Speaker 1: US tend to try to keep those goods at home

256
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Speaker 1: or those commodities at home rather than export them, And

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Speaker 1: what other options are available to farmers and the industry

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Speaker 1: to try to offset a bad harvest. Yeah, um, so

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Speaker 1: we'll see that. We we tend to see it in

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Speaker 1: the cash market. So I always I'm a cash trader.

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Speaker 1: I'm a physical trader. You know. My job is to

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Speaker 1: to get bushels from the farmers that I work with

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Speaker 1: that produced them to the end users that need them,

264
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Speaker 1: you know. And so I I live in the cash

265
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Speaker 1: market every day. And I will tell you the cash

266
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Speaker 1: market is is king no matter how you slice it.

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Speaker 1: Whatever the cash market is doing is it will eventually

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Speaker 1: transition into futures and in some way, shape or form

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Speaker 1: or at the very least, the cash prices is gravity,

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Speaker 1: especially in wheat. So, but if we do run into

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Speaker 1: a situation where we have a question regarding what production

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Speaker 1: looks like, you know, one of the first steps that

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Speaker 1: you see is, as I indicated before, everyone kind of

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Speaker 1: pulls their arms and legs inside the vehicle. Okay, we

275
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Speaker 1: we we wait, you don't you try to assess the market.

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Speaker 1: You let someone um other than you potentially put on

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Speaker 1: a couple of trades or make a couple of trades

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Speaker 1: to get a good feel as to what the actual

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Speaker 1: cash value is. So futures can trade um one price

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Speaker 1: uh and depending on what the local supply and demand

281
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Speaker 1: is or what the regional supply and demand is in

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Speaker 1: a in a specific location surrounding a specific end user,

283
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Speaker 1: you know you'll see a basis, which is that difference

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Speaker 1: between cash price and future Sometimes it trades as at

285
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Speaker 1: a premium, some times it trades at a negative. But

286
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Speaker 1: so what you'll tend to see is is one of

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Speaker 1: the first things that happens is the folks that tend

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Speaker 1: to traditionally do the selling, whether that's an elevator or

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Speaker 1: a farmer. If a crop scare comes about, we stop selling.

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Speaker 1: Like that's just human nature, right. If you don't know

291
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Speaker 1: what you're going to have going forward, you stop selling.

292
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Speaker 1: So then the market's job becomes getting it to a

293
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Speaker 1: high enough value to where it entices a pickup and selling. So,

294
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Speaker 1: whether that's a enticing a farmer to liquidate his or

295
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Speaker 1: her bushels at a certain price, maybe it's a you know,

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Speaker 1: the farmer has an eight dollar target order in mind,

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Speaker 1: or something of that nature. You know, whatever it will

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Speaker 1: take to get to those values to really kind of

299
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Speaker 1: entice the farmer or entice the elevator. So there's a

300
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Speaker 1: whole host of things you'll have to be able to

301
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Speaker 1: offset or or you know, provide in in the market

302
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Speaker 1: price itself, you know. And so that's what you'll see

303
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Speaker 1: is is folks will start to discuss the basis is

304
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Speaker 1: increasing and that spreads are you know, spreads are tightening.

305
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Speaker 1: So the other thing is is that spreads will no

306
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Speaker 1: longer incentivize you holding the product out of the pipeline.

307
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Speaker 1: You know, they're going to punish you for doing so.

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Speaker 1: So traditionally, in the commercial elevator business, you know, you

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Speaker 1: see what we call carry um or contain go and

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Speaker 1: you know, if you're your fancy, we just call it

311
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Speaker 1: carry because we're not you know, so you'll see you

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Speaker 1: typically we see carry i e. The market isn't paying you,

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Speaker 1: we're providing you incentive to keep it out of the pipeline.

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Speaker 1: The opposite comes true if if it looks like you're

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Speaker 1: going to have a short crop. So one of the

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Speaker 1: things that we pay attention to, you know, not only

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Speaker 1: is basis whether or not the end user is paying

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Speaker 1: more or less yesterday, but what are the spreads doing,

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Speaker 1: because that will give us an insight into whether or

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Speaker 1: not you could see supply come into the pipeline. And

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Speaker 1: so yeah, I mean the first big step that has

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Speaker 1: taken as you just stop selling, which is what we

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Speaker 1: saw take place in India right like, the concerns started

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Speaker 1: to develop that we were selling too much. We were

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Speaker 1: uncertain as to what we were going to have come

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Speaker 1: into play for new crop, and so the government said

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Speaker 1: weld on, you know, we're going to take some time now.

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Speaker 1: They did it through measures that you know or are

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Speaker 1: seeing in a more government centric UM agricultural production system,

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Speaker 1: whereas in the US, UM traders tend to to uh

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Speaker 1: manage their own reduction and market exposure, you know, i e.

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Speaker 1: They make their bids really or their offers really expensive. Um,

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Speaker 1: the end users may firm up bids, you know, things

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Speaker 1: of that nature. But um, we just kind of become

335
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Speaker 1: we start to play chicken, you could say, Um, when

336
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Speaker 1: it comes to purchase and sales. What is the shape

337
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Speaker 1: of the futures curve right now? I mean we know

338
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Speaker 1: that a lot of uh, at least you know, up

339
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Speaker 1: until very recently. I can't remember the last time I look,

340
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Speaker 1: but all around the world, whether we're talking about egg

341
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Speaker 1: or metals or energy commodities, we have seen this sort

342
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Speaker 1: of like front month, uh, you know, high premium in

343
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Speaker 1: the front month. What is the shape now of the

344
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Speaker 1: wheat futurest curve? And what is it indicating? That's the

345
00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:33,119
Speaker 1: ironic part um. You know, you pull up the shape

346
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Speaker 1: of the wheat futures curve um, and we saw it go.

347
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Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how much attention folks paid

348
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Speaker 1: to to what the market had done here. Um. Upon

349
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Speaker 1: the news of the invasion, we saw some pretty substantial

350
00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:49,480
Speaker 1: inversions um or backwardation developed to where you saw the

351
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Speaker 1: July dece you know, go to a two dollar inverse.

352
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Speaker 1: I mean just something that was just absolutely obscene, something

353
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Speaker 1: that we had never seen. Um, happened before. And as

354
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Speaker 1: a result, it kind of lou um a lot of

355
00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:05,159
Speaker 1: elevators out of the market because they they right, like

356
00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:06,720
Speaker 1: so that I was gonna I was gonna ask like

357
00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:10,080
Speaker 1: their business must be premised on the idea that like

358
00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:15,080
Speaker 1: you know, you hold, they hold right, or they hold

359
00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:17,560
Speaker 1: they hold grain, and if you hold it, you know

360
00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,240
Speaker 1: it's grain is priced more valuable in a few months

361
00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:22,160
Speaker 1: or a year or whatever it is, and you get

362
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Speaker 1: some sort of I guess, as you said, carry, But

363
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Speaker 1: it's got to be a terrible business in the opposite

364
00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:30,959
Speaker 1: when there's such a premium currently. Yeah, yeah, And and

365
00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:33,800
Speaker 1: that's what you saw. You saw wheat elevators of flour mills,

366
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Speaker 1: you know, they just basically withdrew bids. So the farmer

367
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:39,639
Speaker 1: was very frustrated in the sense that the board was

368
00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:44,080
Speaker 1: rallying twelve fifty dollars for Chicago wheat and the end

369
00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:47,159
Speaker 1: users and processors with drew bids. As a result, you know,

370
00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:49,480
Speaker 1: of of the cash market again going back to the

371
00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:53,840
Speaker 1: cash market just basically being destroyed um by that move

372
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:56,760
Speaker 1: in futures, you saw a lot of activity, You saw

373
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Speaker 1: a lot of folks sleeve. You've seen the spread zone wine.

374
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Speaker 1: So ironically, you know, a lot of folks are talking

375
00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:04,440
Speaker 1: about how wheat is the most bullish commodity out there,

376
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:06,199
Speaker 1: you know, it's the one thing that we tend to

377
00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:08,320
Speaker 1: hear the most about. But when you look at the spreads,

378
00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:11,359
Speaker 1: they're they're painting substantial carry or what has traditionally been

379
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:14,560
Speaker 1: solid carry um for the last several years, at least

380
00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:17,240
Speaker 1: out into the march board um, you know, when you're

381
00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:19,960
Speaker 1: looking at the Chicago crop um, and even out into

382
00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:22,879
Speaker 1: the march board when you're you're looking at the Kansas

383
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:26,760
Speaker 1: City crop um, and so you know, there there's carry,

384
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 1: there is incentive to hold the crop. But I think

385
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:31,640
Speaker 1: that's more to do with the fact that the global pipeline,

386
00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:34,720
Speaker 1: or our export business, or our delivery system, you know,

387
00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 1: simply couldn't handle all of the wheat coming off at

388
00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:40,280
Speaker 1: harvest time, you know. And you could say the opposite

389
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:42,959
Speaker 1: is true and corn and soybeans, where they're pretty heavily

390
00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:47,040
Speaker 1: inverted old crop um to new crop um. Just you know,

391
00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:50,000
Speaker 1: especially I think considering the fact that for wheat, the

392
00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:54,879
Speaker 1: new crop year starts on Wednesday, So for wheat um,

393
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,480
Speaker 1: we have a June to June, and so we're basically

394
00:20:57,560 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 1: ending up. We know what we we did for for

395
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:01,600
Speaker 1: old prop we have an idea of of what will

396
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:03,520
Speaker 1: be left over at the end of the year. And

397
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:07,080
Speaker 1: now we're we're facing you know, a new crop coming

398
00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 1: in full bins. Hopefully even with a smaller crop, you know,

399
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:12,240
Speaker 1: you're still going to have a lot to take off,

400
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:14,919
Speaker 1: um you know, early on in the season. And so

401
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:19,119
Speaker 1: that markets providing some incentive and and providing um, you know,

402
00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 1: end users elevators, flour mills, you know, a way of

403
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,560
Speaker 1: of capturing some incentive to to keep that stuff out

404
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:28,000
Speaker 1: of the pipeline, and that's helping to keep basis firm

405
00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 1: for the farmer. So what happens to sort of end

406
00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:36,480
Speaker 1: user prices in this type of scenario, So for instance,

407
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:39,959
Speaker 1: the hard red wheat that we use for bread and

408
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 1: things like that, do bread makers, does the price of

409
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 1: bread immediately go up because the spot price the input

410
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:49,639
Speaker 1: cost goes up or is there some sort of hedging

411
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:54,600
Speaker 1: activity where they might have, you know, um forward, purchased

412
00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:58,200
Speaker 1: their wheat needs a year before at a lower price.

413
00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:01,680
Speaker 1: Like how much of it actually feeds through into consumer

414
00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:03,440
Speaker 1: goods and the things that we eat on a day

415
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,159
Speaker 1: to day basis Yeah. On the plus side, you know,

416
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:09,080
Speaker 1: the cost of wheat for a flour miller is actually

417
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 1: a very small I think it's less than a it's

418
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 1: less than a third of the cost of the overall

419
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 1: loaf of bread. Um. You know, all of the other

420
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 1: factors come into play, the transportation and the staffing, the equipment, that, this,

421
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 1: that and the other thing, and so it really isn't

422
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 1: a direct correlation. Of course, during times of inflation, all

423
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 1: other costs are increasing, so it's easy to say, Okay,

424
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:30,400
Speaker 1: well the cost of wheat is up x per cent,

425
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:33,320
Speaker 1: so obviously the cost of bread needs to go up

426
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:38,560
Speaker 1: as well. But that's not necessarily the case. Now you

427
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:42,160
Speaker 1: are seeing folks that didn't hedge. You know, traditionally you'll

428
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,439
Speaker 1: see the majority of your wheat users in the United

429
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:49,200
Speaker 1: States at the very least have a very um deep

430
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:54,640
Speaker 1: and very experienced trading desk. So they're not just sitting there.

431
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 1: You know, what was me, I didn't realize the price

432
00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:58,960
Speaker 1: of wheat was going up. They're able to hedge, you know,

433
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,119
Speaker 1: they're able to make their purchase says, book their basis levels,

434
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:05,359
Speaker 1: maybe trade their futures. They may own options against certain

435
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:07,679
Speaker 1: market moves and things of that nature, you know. So

436
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:12,440
Speaker 1: there's somewhat isolated. Um. But when you know, Russia invaded

437
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 1: and you saw the market just surge um limit higher

438
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:19,400
Speaker 1: day after day after day, you did see them stop.

439
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 1: You know, they were looking at you know, as a

440
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,480
Speaker 1: wheat miller, um, you know, not a flower end user.

441
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 1: The wheat miller was looking at making a substantial amount

442
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 1: of purchases in the July and and looking down the

443
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 1: barrel of a dollar fifty, you know, in version. And

444
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:36,720
Speaker 1: so there was a lot of frustration for folks that

445
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:40,160
Speaker 1: you just simply saw them step out, um step away

446
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 1: from the market, you know. And and so in times

447
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 1: of extreme volatility and concern, we have seen that happen. Now,

448
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 1: obviously it can't last long term, um, you know. And

449
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 1: for that reason, a lot of these folks have have

450
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,919
Speaker 1: managed to to hedge some of their risk, or at

451
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 1: the very least are are insulated from a good portion

452
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,680
Speaker 1: of it. But it gets concerning, um, you know, when

453
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 1: you see big moves like that, and in extremely volatile prices,

454
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 1: you know, you start to worry about who your your

455
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:23,440
Speaker 1: end user is or how they're protecting there there there risk.

456
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:28,160
Speaker 1: So I want to sort of ask you about what

457
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 1: Tracy and I were discussing in the intro, which is

458
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 1: is there some underlying frailty that's been exposed in the

459
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:39,719
Speaker 1: U s AD market or the AG market overall. I mean,

460
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:41,400
Speaker 1: we talked about this idea. It's like, Okay, we can

461
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 1: talk about perfect storms and this crazy weather that we've

462
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 1: got such that we had two years of drought and

463
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 1: then we got six months of rain all in six

464
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 1: weeks and so forth. And so obviously in any macro

465
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:57,120
Speaker 1: environment that is going to rea havoc when the weather's

466
00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:00,680
Speaker 1: uh that unpredictable. But is there so thing else that's

467
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 1: being exposed here in your view, like if you sort

468
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 1: of zoom out the fact that we've seen such volatility,

469
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 1: such high prices and so forth, that is really just

470
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:13,440
Speaker 1: like cannot be sort of explained by bad luck or

471
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:18,919
Speaker 1: perfect storm. Yeah, uh yeah, I think, you know, to

472
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 1: a certain extent. I think one of the things that

473
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:25,719
Speaker 1: we've seen, um, you know, really kind of become crystal

474
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:30,480
Speaker 1: clear here as of late, is is the idea that um,

475
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,199
Speaker 1: you know, we've we've transitioned from you know, what the

476
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 1: US used to be the bread basket of the world, um,

477
00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 1: and when we we ran into ethanol, and when we

478
00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 1: had the drought in twelve and prices ran up, and

479
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:47,360
Speaker 1: you know, I think the agricultural UM folks, the higher ups,

480
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 1: the elevators and you know your A, B, C, D

481
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:54,159
Speaker 1: S and grain and your you know, your egg input

482
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 1: suppliers and your your equipment suppliers and some of these

483
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 1: things started to recognize that there was a huge amount

484
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:03,119
Speaker 1: of opportunity um around the world for far better margin

485
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 1: than they could ever achieve in the in the United States.

486
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 1: And you saw this massive expansion and and uh, you know,

487
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:11,480
Speaker 1: the globalization of our our food supply, which is great.

488
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 1: We need it to happen. We we have to have

489
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,680
Speaker 1: it happen, UM. But I think you know, one of

490
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 1: the reasons that we're running into this situation, you know,

491
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 1: with with your your Middle Eastern countries and your your

492
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 1: North African countries, and the concern over what takes place, UM,

493
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:27,919
Speaker 1: you know there is is because they were so heavily

494
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 1: reliant upon one supplier. UM. You know, over sixty of

495
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:35,439
Speaker 1: their purchases were made from Ukraine, which is great, but

496
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 1: it's not great when something happens in the supply. Now

497
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,880
Speaker 1: granted you we haven't had a lot of just wars

498
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 1: just break out randomly in our our food producers. So

499
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 1: maybe you know, you didn't expect that to take place,

500
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 1: but you know, I would say one of the things

501
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 1: that this has really kind of put a spotlight on is,

502
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 1: you know, for one, what it is that China is doing.

503
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,399
Speaker 1: And I don't think that even can be answered. You know,

504
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:00,159
Speaker 1: part of the reason that spurred all of this was

505
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 1: the substantial move by China to to really kind of

506
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:07,879
Speaker 1: increase their government stockpiles. You know, there are exports increased.

507
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:11,120
Speaker 1: You know, gosh, you can't even say how how big

508
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 1: their exports increased, because we went from basically what was

509
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 1: zero to twenty eight million metric ton of of corn imports,

510
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:19,360
Speaker 1: you know, last year from China. You know, they're looking

511
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,640
Speaker 1: to to import twenty three million metric tonue, I mean,

512
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:24,919
Speaker 1: and and prior to that baseline, you know, max was

513
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 1: was a handful you know, a few metric ton and

514
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:32,119
Speaker 1: so that that really changed the global pipeline and I

515
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 1: think it kind of put um highlighted the power that

516
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 1: China has when it comes to global logistics and global

517
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 1: pipelines and global demand and all of these things, you know,

518
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,399
Speaker 1: And I would say that's That's probably one of the

519
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:49,719
Speaker 1: biggest is that you know, prior to this excessive, exceptional

520
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 1: increase in Chinese demand, and we were actually talking about

521
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 1: burden some stocks. I mean in the head of the

522
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 1: fall of two thousand twenty, you know, going into late

523
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 1: twenty before every was really paying attention to grains. You know,

524
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:04,119
Speaker 1: we were looking at the potential of a three billion

525
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 1: bushel corn carry out, which is almost three times what

526
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:08,679
Speaker 1: some folks are expecting for this year's carry out. You know,

527
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:12,400
Speaker 1: we were talking carry out yep. So when we were

528
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 1: done at the end of every year, we have enough

529
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 1: left over to get us into new crop production. So

530
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 1: my entire life is always revolving around what are ending

531
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 1: stocks or carry out, what is that going to look like,

532
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 1: how much are we gonna have left over at the

533
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 1: end of next year, what does that mean for for

534
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 1: a new crop production and demand? And then what will

535
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:31,920
Speaker 1: we have left over at the end of that year? Um.

536
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 1: And that's simply what we pay attention to in grains.

537
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 1: But yeah, so prior to that big increase in Chinese demand,

538
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 1: you know, we were kind of worried about what we

539
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 1: would be looking at, you know globally. Um, when it

540
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 1: came to burdens own burdens some stocks. Now of course

541
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 1: you saw you know, major production issues in Brazil back

542
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 1: to back. You know, Larnina looks like it's poised to

543
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 1: to make a third appearance, and that tends to read

544
00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 1: havoc on South American weather. Um, it tends to cause

545
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:02,959
Speaker 1: droughts in the southern planes, you know, things of that nature.

546
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 1: But I would say, you know, probably one of the

547
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 1: biggest things that this market move is is trying to

548
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 1: spotlight on, is is just you know, how vulnerable we

549
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 1: are in the free market to to someone kind of

550
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 1: stepping in and and taking I don't want to say

551
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:20,959
Speaker 1: more than their share, because it's an inadequate statement, you know,

552
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 1: to use, but you know, we're somewhat vulnerable to to

553
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 1: some folks just kind of stepping in and saying, you know, hey,

554
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 1: we'll take this. It's cheap, we're gonna take all of it,

555
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 1: thank you, and then other countries saying we want to

556
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 1: avoid that person coming in or those folks coming in

557
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 1: and taking everything, so we're going to restrict our our exports.

558
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 1: So we just really saw this whole entire flip, you know,

559
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 1: in in global availability, you know, due to the fact

560
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 1: that China really kind of stepped in and started soaking

561
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:52,239
Speaker 1: up every piece, every kernel of feed grade and they

562
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 1: could get you know, around the world. Yeah, this is

563
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 1: something we actually recorded a whole episode on this with

564
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 1: Scott Irwin. I think it was one of the episodes

565
00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 1: that we did, yeah, about China buying up and building

566
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 1: up its stockpiles. But so, I guess a natural question

567
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:14,560
Speaker 1: here is what can countries do in order to ease

568
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 1: this kind of tight supply. So we've already seen a

569
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:22,400
Speaker 1: cutback on exports. I've seen some talk about things like

570
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 1: subsidies for farmers, but there seems to be debate over

571
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 1: whether or not those could actually make the problem even

572
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 1: worse because people would be incentivized to just not grow anything. Um.

573
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:36,000
Speaker 1: And this is sort of a classic criticism of subsidies.

574
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 1: But what exactly could be done here? What sort of

575
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 1: policies would help? Um? I think it's so hard. I

576
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 1: mean it really outside of of improving weather or incentivizing

577
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 1: you know, and maybe that is through through subsidies or

578
00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 1: something of that nature, you know, which we've seen. I mean,

579
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 1: we've we've helped farmers with crop insurance. It's been one

580
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:56,720
Speaker 1: of the things that that we've seen as of late

581
00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 1: is is, you know, some conversation about whether or not

582
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 1: crop insurance hinders the farmer or incentivizes the farmer not

583
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 1: to plant. You know, one of the things that would

584
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 1: point out in that conversation is the current crop insurance

585
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 1: support price for December twenty two corn is a dollar

586
00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 1: thirty dollar forty below where the market is currently trading.

587
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 1: So the market is going to incentivize a continuation of planting.

588
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 1: That's going to be the market's job, even if that

589
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 1: crop insurance prices is below. So helping provide that safety

590
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 1: net via crop insurance or something of that nature to

591
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 1: where as long as the producers is putting in um

592
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 1: a good faith effort to to get that crop planted

593
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:34,080
Speaker 1: and a good faith effort to make sure that they're

594
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 1: they're doing all that they can to try to produce

595
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 1: is large of a crop as what they possibly can.

596
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 1: You know, I think that would help around the world

597
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:42,120
Speaker 1: for a lot of folks, And I think you're seeing

598
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 1: countries introduce that. You saw China um basically credit the

599
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 1: turn of their winter wheat crop to the millions of

600
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,720
Speaker 1: dollars that they poured into farmers in certain provinces to

601
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 1: make sure that they were fertilizing and using fun decide

602
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 1: and doing everything they could to kind of maximize production.

603
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 1: To me, I think the market is going to do

604
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 1: its job as long as mother nature cooperates. Um. You know.

605
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 1: I think one of the things that you know you're

606
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 1: seeing right now is you're you're seeing December twenty three

607
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:12,960
Speaker 1: corn trading near six fifty. You know, you're seeing crop

608
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 1: prices for for next year's harvest eighteen months from now. Um,

609
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 1: you know, trading at at relatively high levels. Wheat for

610
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 1: next year at a eleven dollars and fourteen cents, you know.

611
00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 1: So I think the market will do the job to

612
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:29,680
Speaker 1: incentivize I think you'll see some continued expansions in South America. UM.

613
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 1: I think you'll, you know, as as long as farmers

614
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 1: are continue to be incentivized here in the US, you're

615
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 1: going to see them, you know, roll past final planting

616
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 1: dates of whether allows it and some of these other things,

617
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 1: because the market price says, you know, you should be planting. Um.

618
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 1: And so I think that's the main thing. Just providing

619
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 1: a safe place to land if there were to be

620
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 1: a major weather issue is probably one of the best

621
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:53,239
Speaker 1: things they could do. Can you talk a little bit

622
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:57,239
Speaker 1: about what's happening on the input cost side UM with

623
00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 1: your client? Of course, a big story of last year

624
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:03,880
Speaker 1: has been the surge and the cost of fertilizer UM,

625
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 1: although there was it was actually Bloomberg story yesterday about

626
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 1: actually a significant pullback in the last month. But what

627
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 1: are the different input costs or the primary input costs

628
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 1: for your clients and what do you see happening there.

629
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 1: Has there been any sort of like stabilization improvement, et cetera. Yeah,

630
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:25,920
Speaker 1: I think one of the biggest things we've seen is

631
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 1: everyone kind of breathed a sigh of relief in the

632
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 1: sense that there was a real concern that we were

633
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 1: going to have shortages. UM. No one that I've seen

634
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 1: or heard from across the country is has really run

635
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 1: into a situation where if a farmer needed a fertilizer,

636
00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 1: you know, of of of a certain type, that he

637
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 1: or she couldn't get ahold of it. Prices have increased exponentially.

638
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 1: Of course, in that UM their record high. They they

639
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 1: have stayed well elevated beyond when a lot of folks

640
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 1: thought that they would UM. So that's created some concern,

641
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:56,480
Speaker 1: but you've also seen, as we talked about before, you know,

642
00:33:56,520 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 1: the car market basically has rallied almost two dollars fallen

643
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,719
Speaker 1: off a bit as as of late, but it had rallied, um,

644
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 1: you know, a dollar after the the invasion um and

645
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 1: another dollar after the Planning Intentions report. So you saw

646
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 1: a pretty substantial increase in the amount of money that

647
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,280
Speaker 1: the farmer can get out of an acre of corn.

648
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:18,240
Speaker 1: You know, you can multiply seven dollars and in thirty

649
00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 1: cents times anywhere between a hundred and fifty to two hundred,

650
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:24,799
Speaker 1: to get a good feel for what a revenue, um,

651
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 1: what kind of revenue of farmer is looking at. So

652
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 1: there is room now obviously that's gross revenue, and there

653
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 1: all of the costs that continue to pile up, you know,

654
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:35,360
Speaker 1: really kind of put us in a situation to where

655
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 1: we're working harder, we're laying out way more cash than

656
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:41,799
Speaker 1: we ever have before for the same hope of the

657
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,239
Speaker 1: same margin. And so that's one of the things that

658
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:47,879
Speaker 1: it feels as though the cash outlay being as high

659
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 1: as what it was and being increased as much as

660
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 1: what it was, has put us in a situation to

661
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 1: where there's far more stress this early in the marketing

662
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,160
Speaker 1: year to make sure that the farmer gets it right.

663
00:34:57,480 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 1: You know. Obviously they don't want to sell too soon

664
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,040
Speaker 1: and and miss out on a major rally if we

665
00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:04,240
Speaker 1: were to see some sort of drought developer or something

666
00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 1: like that. But they don't want to not sell and

667
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:08,800
Speaker 1: watch the market fall back to crop insurance or lower,

668
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:11,040
Speaker 1: you know. And and so it's it's put us in

669
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:14,799
Speaker 1: a pretty tight situation here where we've we've outlaid a

670
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 1: more cash than we ever have before and and created

671
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 1: you know, far more worry than we ever have either

672
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:24,040
Speaker 1: as well. Huh, So what should we be watching for

673
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 1: in terms of signs of improvement? Like what are some

674
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:30,439
Speaker 1: things are indicators that we should keep our eye on. Well,

675
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:32,319
Speaker 1: we really want to watch what the weather does here

676
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 1: for the next four to six weeks, specifically for corn

677
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:38,719
Speaker 1: and for wheat. You know, but wheat harvest is gonna

678
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:41,279
Speaker 1: get started or has started in Texas, is going to

679
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:43,560
Speaker 1: get started, and so we'll want to see, you know,

680
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:45,319
Speaker 1: really kind of pay attention or at least I'll be

681
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:47,879
Speaker 1: paying attention to to what those cash markets look like,

682
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:50,840
Speaker 1: what takes place, you know, what the reports are you know,

683
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:53,160
Speaker 1: from a yield standpoint, but from from from someone on

684
00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:55,279
Speaker 1: the outside looking in. The biggest thing that that I

685
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 1: would recommend, you know, really kind of paying attention to

686
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 1: is obviously what developments we see in the Rush Ukraine situation.

687
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:03,439
Speaker 1: You know, where we've we've never seen it to where

688
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:07,320
Speaker 1: we have upboards of sixty five million metric ton potentially

689
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:10,360
Speaker 1: you know, sitting in countries that you know habit but

690
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 1: may not be looking to ship it or may not

691
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:14,279
Speaker 1: be able to ship it into the global market. So

692
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 1: if we see a shift in that, things will change.

693
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:19,640
Speaker 1: If we see these humanitarian corridors open, if we see

694
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 1: some rollbacks you know potentially on the sanctions that Russia's

695
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 1: asking for something of that nature, you know, that's going

696
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:27,759
Speaker 1: to have a huge influence on global supply. The other

697
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 1: thing is obviously whether through the month of June into

698
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 1: July we want to see decent rain, not too heavy,

699
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 1: and warm temperatures, you know, but not too warm. So

700
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 1: it's that's gonna be the hard part is watching that.

701
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:41,839
Speaker 1: And then the other thing to really kind of pay

702
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 1: attention to is going to be our shipment pace. In

703
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:46,400
Speaker 1: my opinion, you know, when it comes to export sales.

704
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:49,400
Speaker 1: The bulk of our export business currently for for corn

705
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:52,400
Speaker 1: and as it stands, you know, recently for for swayabeans

706
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:55,239
Speaker 1: has been to China. But we're starting to see, you know,

707
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 1: this week was huge for corn shipments swaybeing shipments were

708
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 1: a little bit below average, but sales paces dropped off substantially.

709
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 1: So the question now becomes, do you see China slow

710
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:08,360
Speaker 1: down on on what they're taking and could that result

711
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 1: in you know, a potential reduction and export outlook and

712
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 1: an increase in overall supply because China is unable to

713
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 1: to take the bustles that they you know, had already purchased.

714
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:21,200
Speaker 1: So those will be the main factors that we're watching

715
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 1: here over that here six weeks. So I just want

716
00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:26,960
Speaker 1: to like pivot to one other topic before we go.

717
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 1: And you know, you talked about how you're in the

718
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 1: cash market. Your job is to connect consumers of actual

719
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 1: grains with producers of actual grains, and you know, Tracy

720
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:41,360
Speaker 1: and I recently did an interview with Matt piet who's

721
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 1: the CEO of Arrived Logistics, and we talked about, like,

722
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:48,480
Speaker 1: you know, the the sort of exponentially complicated world of

723
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:51,800
Speaker 1: trucking and freight, and there's all different kinds of products

724
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 1: that exist, all different types of destinations. It's a really

725
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:59,200
Speaker 1: hard problem. And of course, you know, moving a truckload

726
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:01,759
Speaker 1: of saying computers or couches or phones is going to

727
00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:04,319
Speaker 1: be different than moving a truckload of wheat because it's

728
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 1: different handling and different temperature and so forth. And I'm

729
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:09,759
Speaker 1: sure as if you could talk a little bit about

730
00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:14,680
Speaker 1: that market of the physical moving of wheat, how that works,

731
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 1: and like what are what makes it difficult and like

732
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 1: what are the sort of opportunities there in terms of

733
00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 1: how could improve Yeah, um, I it is. It is

734
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:26,920
Speaker 1: probably my favorite part of the job, but is the

735
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 1: most um the part of the job that makes me

736
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:32,520
Speaker 1: pull my hair out the most. And so yeah, you know,

737
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:35,400
Speaker 1: wheat movement, a lot of of wheat movement, you know,

738
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:38,400
Speaker 1: for us locally here in Michigan is done via truck

739
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:41,000
Speaker 1: and so you know, one of the things that you

740
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 1: really kind of look at is trying to make sure

741
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 1: that you know, from a farmer's standpoint, you know, not

742
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 1: a lot of farmers are sitting around their bins waiting

743
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:50,880
Speaker 1: for a truck to show up. And so one of

744
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 1: the biggest struggles that we have, obviously is communication between

745
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:56,480
Speaker 1: truckers and and and where they're looking to load, you know,

746
00:38:56,520 --> 00:39:00,320
Speaker 1: an understanding or a follow through of of what dumped where.

747
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 1: You know, especially now that prices are increasing as they are,

748
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:06,239
Speaker 1: you know, you're looking at a pretty substantial price tag

749
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 1: on you know, moving eighteen dollars soy beans a thousand bushel,

750
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:11,960
Speaker 1: you know, a thousand bushel at a crack. You know,

751
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:14,719
Speaker 1: you're basically, I I tell my customers to make sure

752
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:17,200
Speaker 1: they're keeping track of everyone that loads, who it is,

753
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:20,840
Speaker 1: license plates, everything, you know, basically ask for a deposit

754
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:23,799
Speaker 1: of their firstborn child because you're you're shipping you know,

755
00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:27,919
Speaker 1: eighteen thousand dollars worth of wheat with a thousand busheal load,

756
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 1: I mean you your soy beans? Excuse me. You know,

757
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:33,360
Speaker 1: you've got to recognize what is going out from a

758
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 1: cash standpoint, and so there's always a real concern that

759
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:38,720
Speaker 1: you're gonna lose a load. You know, that you're gonna

760
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:42,319
Speaker 1: run into a situation where someone maybe loads something, says

761
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 1: they're taking it to one end user and it just

762
00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:47,359
Speaker 1: you know, you just can't track it down. And if

763
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 1: you don't have the right the right information regarding who

764
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:53,840
Speaker 1: loaded it, where it was supposed to go, you know,

765
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 1: when it was loaded and when it should have been there.

766
00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:58,239
Speaker 1: And then the follow through of making sure that a

767
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:00,759
Speaker 1: pond delivery you received the ticke it, you know, or

768
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 1: have a copy of the ticket that is as good

769
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:06,240
Speaker 1: as money. That that a ticket, you know, it's a

770
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 1: receipt of delivery, you know, is saying this is mine,

771
00:40:09,200 --> 00:40:11,799
Speaker 1: I delivered it. This is that money belongs to me,

772
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:14,799
Speaker 1: you know. And so all of these things have become

773
00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:18,000
Speaker 1: incredibly difficult and as a result, have made it you know,

774
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:20,960
Speaker 1: to where potentials, you know, the farmers opportunities may be

775
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:23,720
Speaker 1: a little bit more limited in the sense that because

776
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:25,880
Speaker 1: of the inability to track or because of the inability

777
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:29,040
Speaker 1: to feel comfortable with with you know, loading something or

778
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:31,799
Speaker 1: getting someone in there to properly load you know, you

779
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 1: may not have them do uh, they may not go

780
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 1: into that certain market or something of that nature. And so, yeah,

781
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 1: there's a lot of moving pieces with grain and feed,

782
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 1: especially feed. You know, you cattle still eat on Christmas,

783
00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:44,360
Speaker 1: you know. So these sorts of things in fraid have

784
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 1: been you know, very difficult to kind of pin down.

785
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:48,840
Speaker 1: And one of the things that we've been trying to

786
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:51,400
Speaker 1: work on, is you know, how can you get established

787
00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:54,279
Speaker 1: to where you can utilize technology to let you know

788
00:40:54,280 --> 00:40:56,400
Speaker 1: when the truck is is around the corner because the

789
00:40:56,480 --> 00:41:00,279
Speaker 1: driver forgot to call. These types of things automatically bloat

790
00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:02,480
Speaker 1: a ticket upon delivery, so you have access to it

791
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:04,120
Speaker 1: and no one it will be settled, you know. And

792
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:06,120
Speaker 1: so it's been a work in progress for part of

793
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 1: the reason for all of the reasons that you stated earlier,

794
00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:10,880
Speaker 1: in the sense that it's just not it's not a

795
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:14,280
Speaker 1: when a happens b takes place because in great movement,

796
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 1: you know, a lot of different things can happen. You

797
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:18,839
Speaker 1: can have a load rejected, you could have you'd miss

798
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:20,880
Speaker 1: a dump time or a loading time, and so a

799
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:23,120
Speaker 1: different truck has to come in or something of that nature.

800
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:25,920
Speaker 1: And so it's still very much a work in progress.

801
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:27,960
Speaker 1: But it's one of those situations where if you could

802
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:31,600
Speaker 1: find the system to crack that, um, you know, you

803
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:34,520
Speaker 1: would be you would be a hero, just simply because

804
00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:37,799
Speaker 1: of all of the complications that come from uh, you know,

805
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:40,239
Speaker 1: not being able to to really nail down that that

806
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 1: freight component. Cattle still eat on Christmas would be a

807
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 1: really great I might have the write one. Andrew said, sir,

808
00:41:48,640 --> 00:41:51,960
Speaker 1: it's always great to have you on the show. Thank

809
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:54,600
Speaker 1: you so much for coming back. I really appreciate it.

810
00:41:55,160 --> 00:41:57,399
Speaker 1: Thank you for having me. I enjoy the heck out

811
00:41:57,440 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 1: of it. Thanks Aie. That was so much. Yeah, it's

812
00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:22,200
Speaker 1: so crazy that, like, after years of drought, that we

813
00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:25,000
Speaker 1: get that the farmers got like a half a year's

814
00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:28,319
Speaker 1: rain in a in a matter of leaks. Yeah. I mean,

815
00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:31,520
Speaker 1: one thing I would say is that if this kind

816
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:36,399
Speaker 1: of volatility and weather patterns keeps continuing, then it would

817
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 1: seem that there's a fundamental change that has taken place

818
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:41,319
Speaker 1: when it comes to the weather. The other thing that

819
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:46,360
Speaker 1: I thought was interesting was Angie's suggestion of China being

820
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:50,440
Speaker 1: this massive buyer that sort of contributed to an overall

821
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:53,320
Speaker 1: level of tightness in the market that makes it maybe

822
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:57,960
Speaker 1: may be less able to deal with shorter term changes

823
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:01,879
Speaker 1: in particular hearts or crops. Yeah, you just don't have

824
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:05,400
Speaker 1: much much slack at all. And then you know, thinking

825
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 1: about like, so, okay, what is that. Yes, weather is

826
00:43:08,600 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 1: always volatile, right, I mean farmers have been dealing with

827
00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:15,000
Speaker 1: volatile rather weather for you know, since the history of farming.

828
00:43:15,600 --> 00:43:17,960
Speaker 1: But then you know, you sort of think about, Okay,

829
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:22,320
Speaker 1: there really were a lot of unusual things that happened

830
00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:25,160
Speaker 1: in the last two years. One of them was the

831
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 1: sort of emergence of China as this sort of like

832
00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:33,719
Speaker 1: buyer of everything and trying to trying to grab all

833
00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:36,239
Speaker 1: the grains it can, and you sort of wonder like

834
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:38,680
Speaker 1: whether there are some similarities between what's going on in

835
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:41,319
Speaker 1: grain and what we see in like retail, where it's

836
00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 1: really hard to forecast and it's really hard to know

837
00:43:44,520 --> 00:43:49,440
Speaker 1: what is a sustainable trend versus something that was distinct

838
00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:51,560
Speaker 1: to the last two years that's not going to persist.

839
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:57,360
Speaker 1: The agricultural bullet. Agricultural bullet, Yeah, that's affecting what bulls

840
00:43:57,400 --> 00:44:00,160
Speaker 1: actually eat, cattle who have to eat on Christmas. I'm

841
00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:03,040
Speaker 1: just gonna keep going, Okay, um, you should write that song.

842
00:44:03,120 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 1: I will, I will for sure. Okay, alright, Well, I

843
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:08,439
Speaker 1: mean it sounds like per Angie. One of the things

844
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 1: to look out for is obviously what's happening in Russia

845
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 1: and Ukraine, but also weather for the next four to

846
00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:17,239
Speaker 1: six weeks. So everyone, uh, you know, state glued to

847
00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:20,959
Speaker 1: your various meteorology apps. I guess it's it's always weather

848
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 1: in the end, I mean in the end, right, Like

849
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:25,000
Speaker 1: that really is like what this market is all about.

850
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 1: Because if yeah, yeah we need we need dome dome agriculture,

851
00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:35,680
Speaker 1: that probably okay, shall we leave it there? Leave it there? Alright?

852
00:44:35,840 --> 00:44:38,400
Speaker 1: This has been another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast.

853
00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 1: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on Twitter at

854
00:44:41,080 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 1: Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe Why Isn't All? You can

855
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:46,799
Speaker 1: follow me on Twitter at the Stalwart. Follow our guest

856
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:50,120
Speaker 1: Angie set Her. She's on Twitter at Goddess of Grain.

857
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:54,440
Speaker 1: Follow our producer Kerman Rodriguez at Kerman armand followed the

858
00:44:54,440 --> 00:44:58,719
Speaker 1: Bloomberg head of podcast, Francesca Leavi at Francesca Today, and

859
00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:01,319
Speaker 1: check out all of our podcas casts at Bloomberg, into

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Speaker 1: the handle at podcasts. Thanks for listening.