1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane along 2 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jailey. We bring you 3 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:18,600 Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot com, 5 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:30,200 Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. We will go 6 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 1: to Jeffrey Rosenberg. Now with black Rocket, I want to say, 7 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 1: folks that when we look at the monitor and I've 8 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 1: got a fancy Bloomberg launchpad, Jeff Rosenberg, I haven't seen 9 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 1: the blinky red and green color on my Bloomberg at 10 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:45,479 Speaker 1: eight thirty one going back to two thousand nine or 11 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:48,159 Speaker 1: two thousand and eight. Not so much. That's bets on 12 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:51,199 Speaker 1: the market. But Jeff Rosenberg is at the level of 13 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 1: uncertainty now as we received this data, yeah, you know it. 14 00:00:56,920 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 1: It certainly has a delta variant characteristic to it, just 15 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 1: like it did last month. Mike's gone through the numbers 16 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 1: really well. But but the key disappointing industry sectors here 17 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 1: that point to the delta variant our leisure and hospitality, 18 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 1: and the education numbers that might just mentioned, you know, 19 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:19,120 Speaker 1: delayed school reopenings, you know, relative to normal seasonal factors. 20 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 1: Mike mentioned last year's seasonal factor UM not clear it 21 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:25,679 Speaker 1: would have affected that much, but overall those two sectors 22 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:28,560 Speaker 1: really disappointing. When you look at average hourly earnings, you 23 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:30,679 Speaker 1: see a mixed shift there, so that number is up, 24 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:34,200 Speaker 1: but you're seeing, particularly with leisure and hospitality, you know, 25 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:38,240 Speaker 1: lower wages workers less in the mix of that points 26 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 1: to a delta variant um And as Lisa was talking about, 27 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 1: you know, the longer term implications for the FED exactly 28 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 1: right on the participation rate and very tight markets. So 29 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 1: you put it all together, and I think the FED 30 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 1: can look through this to the November meeting because it's 31 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 1: so clearly looks like delta variant and every other indicator. 32 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 1: You know, there's a reason why private mark forecasters had 33 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 1: five thousand penciled in, and that's because every other indicator 34 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:08,400 Speaker 1: on the labor markets is pointing to the reopening and 35 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:11,160 Speaker 1: the strengthening and the tightness in the labor market. And 36 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 1: I think the FED will be able to anchor off 37 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:15,960 Speaker 1: of that, whether that's in November, which I expect, or 38 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 1: later from the market. This is really about, you know, 39 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 1: the message we got in September from the f MC 40 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:26,640 Speaker 1: will continue. They're moving ahead on a significant policy change 41 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:31,959 Speaker 1: with significant market implications around ending the post COVID crisis 42 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 1: era of ample liquidity through a gradual tapering and then 43 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 1: bringing about eventually some tightening policy. So, Jeff, that's how 44 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:41,640 Speaker 1: this works. We tighten the jumps number. We asked what 45 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:43,400 Speaker 1: it means for policy, Then we start to think about 46 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:47,840 Speaker 1: the market implications. What are they? Well, I think the 47 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 1: big market implication here is, you know, the era eighteen 48 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 1: months we've lived in globally has been historic amount of 49 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 1: central bank liquidity globally. You know, when you look across 50 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 1: into emerging markets, you see that this trend towards removing 51 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 1: and adjusting to a post COVID world has actually happened 52 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:12,639 Speaker 1: there first because of their inflation pressures. The developed markets 53 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:15,959 Speaker 1: have more room to delay that, but they can't delay 54 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:19,840 Speaker 1: it infinitely, and that's the discussion about transitory inflation. So 55 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 1: it's really a marker for markets about the tail winds 56 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:27,240 Speaker 1: of epic amounts of liquidity are not going to be 57 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:30,519 Speaker 1: here forever, and so we're still going to have the 58 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 1: effect of that liquidity for some time, but we're no 59 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 1: longer going to be adding to it, and that's very 60 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 1: significant and fixed income. It is ushered in the mother 61 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 1: of all reach for yield behaviors. And when you see that, 62 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 1: when when sorry, when when you see that kind of behavior, uh, 63 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:50,440 Speaker 1: you know what you what you what you get is 64 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:53,720 Speaker 1: a risk building up in the system. You certainly seeing 65 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 1: that play out in one part. It's isolated, but it's 66 00:03:56,520 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 1: a big part, you know, for example, in Chinese property developers. Jeff, 67 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 1: thank you, sir. I'll let you get settled and put 68 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:04,560 Speaker 1: your ear pace back in. This is how we're pushing 69 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 1: this through the bond market right now. The rate height 70 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:09,240 Speaker 1: dances playing out in a belly of the curve. Fives 71 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:11,840 Speaker 1: through seven's fives right now come in about two basis 72 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 1: points sevens as well in by two. This is a 73 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:16,760 Speaker 1: conversation we'll have a little bit later on the Open 74 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 1: Lisa at nine am Eastern Sime. I'll catch up with 75 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:21,240 Speaker 1: Muhammad al Aarin on this. I'll catch up with Rick 76 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 1: Reed with black Rock kind of station, Amoroso v Capital, 77 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:26,480 Speaker 1: Mike Collins a PGM. There's a real deep bond market 78 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 1: conversation that's got to happen off the back of this 79 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:30,800 Speaker 1: what does it mean for tapering? Okay, green light, what 80 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 1: about the rate height conversation? Off the back of that, 81 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:35,920 Speaker 1: it really raises also a question about not stag flation, 82 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 1: but those types of dynamics with slower growth and higher 83 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:41,640 Speaker 1: inflation in the near term right now. Clearly though, as 84 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 1: you point out, the five year really the big reaction 85 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:47,840 Speaker 1: with yields lower as people take their expectations for eight 86 00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 1: hikes and kick them like a can down the road 87 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:54,159 Speaker 1: like Congress, So with us is Jeffrey Rosenberg of Black Rock, Jeff, 88 00:04:54,279 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 1: I want to talk about that, that stake flationary type 89 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:01,120 Speaker 1: of dynamic. How does the FED respond to that? Do 90 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:02,839 Speaker 1: you think it is a fair bet that they will 91 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:07,800 Speaker 1: prolong the time before they start hiking rates. I do. 92 00:05:07,920 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 1: I think that the FED has been very clear, you know, 93 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:14,680 Speaker 1: flexible average inflation targeting is a major change in the 94 00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 1: policy reaction function, and it says very clearly the FED 95 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 1: wants to see more inflation surprises, more inflation overshoots. And 96 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:26,839 Speaker 1: and I think in a stag inflationary environment, they're going 97 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 1: to tolerate that higher degree of inflation rather than being 98 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:33,880 Speaker 1: preemptive as they might have been. And and and when 99 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:38,279 Speaker 1: they're seeing the growth side not supportive of the tightening, 100 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:41,360 Speaker 1: and let's let's let's separate the conversations here, right. The 101 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:45,800 Speaker 1: tapering is about not needing the amount of emergency support. 102 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: Tightening is something completely different. Fed's done a very good 103 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 1: job separating those two concepts. And I think if we 104 00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 1: face that environment in the future of stag inflation, uh, 105 00:05:56,440 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 1: they're gonna air more on the growth side than on 106 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:02,279 Speaker 1: the inflation side. Jeff Rozenberg, none of this, and I 107 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:04,920 Speaker 1: mean none of this is not only in the fibozi 108 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:07,119 Speaker 1: you and I read, but the three or four franc 109 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 1: Fibosi tomes that we read on the bond market. It's 110 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 1: original territory. And to me, Jeff Rosenberger goes back to 111 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:17,840 Speaker 1: one single chart. This is the chart that matters, folks. 112 00:06:17,839 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 1: For Chairman Powell, the employed in America. Down we went 113 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 1: in the financial crisis, and on radio it's real simple. 114 00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:29,680 Speaker 1: We plunged in the pandemic and we've made it back 115 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 1: only se or so, Jeff Rosenberg, is this a chairman 116 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 1: linked to a bond market, worried about economics or just 117 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:45,160 Speaker 1: simply worried about the job count in America? Well, it's 118 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:48,599 Speaker 1: been clear. Here is particularly on the on the tapering 119 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:51,599 Speaker 1: conversation that he focused on in a near term labor 120 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 1: market dynamics and and the restoration of some of those 121 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 1: covid UH impacts. I think it's it's much more complicated 122 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:03,279 Speaker 1: for monetary policy to address a lot of those longer 123 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 1: term trends. When it comes to labor force participation. Some 124 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:09,480 Speaker 1: of that is cyclical, some of that can be addressed 125 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 1: with monetary policy, but a lot of it goes beyond 126 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 1: monetary policies ability to impact that. Where it impacts monetary policies, 127 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 1: the tightness in the labor market and how that feeds 128 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 1: through into the inflationary dynamic right from transitory to supply 129 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 1: chain to tightness and labor markets to wage inflation. Jeff, 130 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 1: how can they raise rates? Forget about taper, it's noise. 131 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 1: How do they raise rates given the fact we don't 132 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 1: have employed count back to where it was in February 133 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 1: pre pandemic. Well, that's that's a question of whether or 134 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 1: not that structural change is something that is permanent or 135 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:54,400 Speaker 1: something that can impact or be impacted by monetary policy. Right, So, 136 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 1: so the comparison to the pre crisis environment, right, we 137 00:07:57,040 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 1: have demographic shifts we have retirements, We have a lot 138 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 1: of reasons for why you may not get back to 139 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 1: the pre COVID level. The FED will take that into consideration, 140 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 1: and we'll look at the employment and labor market UH 141 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 1: dynamics relative to the current assessment of maximum employment and potential. 142 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 1: So it may not be getting back to that level, 143 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 1: but the tightness in labor markets is certainly going to 144 00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:25,120 Speaker 1: affect not only you know that we talked about taporing, 145 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 1: but not only the tightening pace, but also it's impact 146 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 1: on inflation through the wage inflation and wage inflation through 147 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 1: two inflation expectations. So if that's where that will matter 148 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 1: from a market called perspective, I'm struck with what Jill 149 00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 1: Carey Hall of Bank of America is talking about that 150 00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:45,560 Speaker 1: this will matter, particularly the wage number for earnings coming 151 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 1: up and margin compression. How much does this sound like 152 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:53,920 Speaker 1: a foreboding message, particularly for more consumer facing sectors in 153 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 1: the equity market, simply because you've got wage pressures and 154 00:08:57,280 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 1: that labor market shortage that's continuing for whatever a reason, 155 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 1: whether it's temporary, transitory, or whether it has longer legs. Yeah, first, 156 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 1: let's separate the kind of surprise on this morning's avery 157 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:12,320 Speaker 1: average hourly earnings. I think that we can dismiss that 158 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 1: a little bit as being about the mixed shift to 159 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:17,560 Speaker 1: due to the COVID impact. I think the longer run 160 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:20,600 Speaker 1: impact about wage inflation and tightness of the labor markets 161 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 1: with regards to equity performance in margin is really going 162 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 1: to be about labor capital substitution. Where can companies mitigate 163 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:34,080 Speaker 1: the impact of margin compression from labor increases by substituting, 164 00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:36,840 Speaker 1: And where companies have that flexibility, they'll be able to 165 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 1: maintain margins. Where companies are more exposed to rising wage 166 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 1: costs and impacting the bottom line, you're gonna have a 167 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 1: more negative impact with regards to margins. So there's gonna 168 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 1: be winners and losers across the company's spectrum when it 169 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:55,960 Speaker 1: comes to this trend of potentially structurally higher wage inflation. 170 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 1: All right, if the participation rate actually remains around where 171 00:09:59,920 --> 00:10:01,600 Speaker 1: it is right now, which is sixty one point six, 172 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:06,560 Speaker 1: what does that do to the tenure? Well, you know, 173 00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:09,400 Speaker 1: I I think that for the ten year it's really 174 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 1: going to be about the combination of the labor market 175 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:18,440 Speaker 1: dynamics with the overall growth projective projections. Right, So, so 176 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:22,800 Speaker 1: labor markets are a positive impact, right if we're seeing 177 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:26,559 Speaker 1: rising wages and rising confidence and that's feeding back through 178 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:30,479 Speaker 1: in real wage gains. Right, So, putting the two conversations 179 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:33,760 Speaker 1: together on inflation and wage inflation, we've got to talk 180 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 1: about whether those are wage inflation figures that are keeping 181 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 1: up with sorry, are keeping up with inflation, And if 182 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 1: they are, then that's a very positive growth trajectory because 183 00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:49,240 Speaker 1: it's rising real incomes, and rising real incomes is very 184 00:10:49,280 --> 00:10:51,960 Speaker 1: supportive to the biggest driver of economic growth. Once we 185 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 1: get past the whole restart and fiscal conversation, it comes 186 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 1: back to the consumer and the outlook for consumption. That's 187 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 1: stronger consumer consumption outlook will really help to bolster expectations 188 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 1: for what kind of levels of growth do we settle 189 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 1: in at and do we settle in above that two 190 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:11,480 Speaker 1: percent pre COVID environment. That's what's going to affect the tenure. 191 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 1: Let me try to see if I can get this back. 192 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:15,200 Speaker 1: You're doing well, Jeff, I like it. There your TV bro, 193 00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:23,319 Speaker 1: Jeffrey Rosenberg, thank you so much with black Rock. Right now, 194 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:27,080 Speaker 1: Tiffany Wilding with us on the American economy, we're picking 195 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:33,080 Speaker 1: up the pieces off just the pandemic tainted jobs report, 196 00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:36,200 Speaker 1: which is an uncertainty that I'm sure all you feel 197 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 1: coast to coast around the world, we feel too, Tiffany, 198 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:45,040 Speaker 1: how certain are your forecast forward for the elited PIMCO? 199 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:50,719 Speaker 1: Do you say this is what fourth quarters going to be? Well, 200 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:52,440 Speaker 1: I mean, I think you always have to be humble 201 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:55,600 Speaker 1: about your forecast, knowing that you know there's there's always, 202 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:58,240 Speaker 1: you know, uncertainty around them. And I think you know, 203 00:11:58,320 --> 00:12:01,160 Speaker 1: even right now, it's probably a high degree of uncertainty 204 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 1: than usual as a result of the pandemic just being 205 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:06,679 Speaker 1: unusual times, you know. But what I would say about 206 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 1: this payroll report was that, yes, of course the headline 207 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 1: number nine thousand jobs added, you know, was weaker than expectations. Um, 208 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 1: if you look at a range of high frequency data, 209 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 1: it does look like that things were picking up in 210 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 1: the middle of September, So I don't want to get 211 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 1: too wonky. But because of the way the payrolls are surveyed, 212 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:27,679 Speaker 1: that actually won't be reflected until the October report. So 213 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:30,760 Speaker 1: even though this report was a little bit weaker, um, 214 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 1: you know, we think that you know it, we'll see 215 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 1: that acceleration as as cases we're peaking across the country 216 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:38,680 Speaker 1: in the middle of of September. You will get a 217 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:41,680 Speaker 1: reacceleration and hiring in October UM. So in our view, 218 00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:43,680 Speaker 1: this this report doesn't really put us back that much. 219 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:46,080 Speaker 1: For example, we still think that the Federal Reserve will 220 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:49,560 Speaker 1: go ahead, you know, with their plans to reduce the 221 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:51,839 Speaker 1: monthly pace of their bond purchase program in November. And 222 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 1: and this is you know, you really have kind of 223 00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:56,439 Speaker 1: have to smooth through these numbers. Sometimes, Tiffy talk to 224 00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:58,439 Speaker 1: us about the participation rate. That's one of the things 225 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:01,080 Speaker 1: that's been kind of sticking out to me. The I 226 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:05,040 Speaker 1: guess the certainly the slower than expected return to work 227 00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:07,200 Speaker 1: for a lot of folks in this economy, is that 228 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 1: troubling to you. Um, yeah, so so, I certainly I 229 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:12,600 Speaker 1: think it is. I mean there's a lot of I 230 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:16,320 Speaker 1: think optimism that you would see a maybe a little 231 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:18,800 Speaker 1: bit of a large recovery. I mean, the participation ry 232 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 1: actually fell, but a lot, you know, a decent recovery 233 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 1: and participation this month in particular, because you had um, 234 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:28,800 Speaker 1: you know, children going back to school, uh, you know, 235 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 1: which was hoped that people would start to like rejoin 236 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 1: and then you get maybe more employment as the enhanced 237 00:13:34,280 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 1: unemployment benefits expired at the beginning of September. You know, 238 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:42,080 Speaker 1: now it doesn't we obviously didn't see that. I would 239 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:44,680 Speaker 1: just caution again that this report can be noisy, but 240 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:49,040 Speaker 1: I do think that the you know, the probably increased 241 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:52,080 Speaker 1: anxiety as a result of of these elevated cases with 242 00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:54,959 Speaker 1: the delta variant and the school disruptions that we saw 243 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:57,439 Speaker 1: around the country. You know, in many local areas, the 244 00:13:57,640 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 1: back to school was was frankly a little bit of 245 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:02,720 Speaker 1: a disa master where people went back, you had outbreaks 246 00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 1: within the schools they had to close down again or 247 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,600 Speaker 1: go to hybrid. So that obviously creates uncertainty, and so 248 00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:10,000 Speaker 1: I think, you know, it just delayed some of this 249 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:13,679 Speaker 1: improvement you know in in labor force participation as a 250 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 1: result of that. But you know, we still think incrementally, 251 00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:18,840 Speaker 1: over you know, the next six months to a year, 252 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:23,080 Speaker 1: things will improve people, you know, labor force participation will 253 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 1: improve as well. Um, you know, and of course they're 254 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 1: you know, policies that are being discussed in Congress, uh 255 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 1: you know, in childcare credits, enhanced childcare credits, etcetera, that 256 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:35,200 Speaker 1: you know, should help people get back in the labor market, 257 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 1: UM and and deal with childcare. Tiffany, We're about to 258 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:40,640 Speaker 1: head into the third quarter earning season and the expectations 259 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 1: we're gonna hear a lot of companies from a lot 260 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 1: of different industries, UH call out the supply chain challenges 261 00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:49,440 Speaker 1: out there on a global scale. How concerned are you 262 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 1: about them in terms of uh, the reopening of the 263 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 1: global economy, the pace of that reopening. How concerned are 264 00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:58,400 Speaker 1: you about that? Yeah, well, I mean I think it's 265 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:01,160 Speaker 1: certainly it's certainly been a concern. It's been holding back 266 00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 1: the recovery the logistics sector within the United States in particular. Obviously, 267 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 1: you know the ports. I think there's around eighties ships 268 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 1: that are sitting sitting off the coast of California. You know, 269 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 1: I could I can see them sitting in my office. 270 00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 1: I mean, obviously that is is very symptomatic of of 271 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 1: just a backup and the the U S logistics supply chain. 272 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 1: They're holding an estimated you know, one billion worth of inventories, 273 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 1: which is actually around two and you know, maybe two 274 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 1: to one to two months, you know, kind of inventory 275 00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 1: churn within the United States. I mean, that's that's it's 276 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:34,160 Speaker 1: a pretty big, you know number that's sitting out there. Um. 277 00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 1: I think more recently we've been also a bit more 278 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 1: concerned because of this you know, global power shortage. So 279 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 1: there's been various events you know, weather related, etcetera, that 280 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 1: have and into the demand for goods that have resulted 281 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,880 Speaker 1: in power shortages, particularly in China. And so if you 282 00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:51,800 Speaker 1: get more disruption and manufacturing in China, obviously that can 283 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:54,000 Speaker 1: slow things down even a bit more so that can 284 00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 1: create some near term inflationary pressures as well as put 285 00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:59,320 Speaker 1: downward pressure on real activity. So that's something of course 286 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:02,800 Speaker 1: that we are are are you highly focused on, Tiffany Welding? 287 00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 1: Thank you so much, greatly appreciate it. With PIMCO, this 288 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:14,520 Speaker 1: is a great pleasure of ball. Sweeney is gonna drive 289 00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:16,600 Speaker 1: this interview for it. I'm gonna get one question in 290 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:19,720 Speaker 1: here and pushed aside to people that know the map 291 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:22,360 Speaker 1: and the fabric of the great state of New Jersey. 292 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 1: Joining us on Jack hit Really, Republican candidate for Governor 293 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 1: of New Jersey. He has been more than active in 294 00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 1: New Jersey politics going back his family goes back to 295 00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 1: when Washington was migrating down to Princeton. He joined us 296 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 1: this morning. Jack, Welcome to Bloomberg. Thrilled to have you 297 00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:43,560 Speaker 1: with this. The the view of the last time around 298 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 1: was the Democrat fifty six percent the Republican forty two. 299 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:53,040 Speaker 1: How do you propose to close that gap to November two? Well, 300 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:56,360 Speaker 1: we are closing it, guys. A number of recent polls 301 00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 1: show this race and single digits. And if we look 302 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:01,400 Speaker 1: at history, we know the Republicans win. We've won six 303 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:04,240 Speaker 1: in the last ten racists here in New Jersey, and 304 00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:07,400 Speaker 1: over that same four decades span, every time a Democrat 305 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 1: took the White House, the very next year New Jersey 306 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,640 Speaker 1: turned around and elected a Republican governor. So, uh, listen, 307 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:15,840 Speaker 1: I'm very optimistic about the outcome of the election. I 308 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:17,920 Speaker 1: like where we are today. We're just gonna continue to 309 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:19,879 Speaker 1: deliver our message, and uh, I just feel really good 310 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,439 Speaker 1: about the outcome on November two. All right, Chack for 311 00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:25,240 Speaker 1: we're better worse. I've been born and raised in the 312 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:28,239 Speaker 1: great state of New Jersey, currently lived there. Um, like 313 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:33,439 Speaker 1: everybody else, we've been dealing with this pandemic. What grade 314 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:36,320 Speaker 1: would you give Governor Murphy for kind of where we've 315 00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:39,120 Speaker 1: been so far, because he's been pretty darn aggressive about 316 00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:42,399 Speaker 1: mask wearing, UH, vaccines and that type of thing. What 317 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 1: kind of great would you give him? Well, guys, I'll 318 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:46,240 Speaker 1: leave that for the people in New Jersey decide which 319 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:47,919 Speaker 1: they will do in two and a half weeks. What 320 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:51,000 Speaker 1: I will say is that as governor, I'll always promote, 321 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:53,239 Speaker 1: reserve and protect the public health and safety. I'm all 322 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:57,640 Speaker 1: about saving lives, but I'm also about saving livelihoods. And um, 323 00:17:57,720 --> 00:17:59,880 Speaker 1: you'll see a lot more consistency out of Governor cheddar 324 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,280 Speaker 1: Elli than we have at a Governor Murphy. UM. And 325 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:04,680 Speaker 1: you also see better common sense. I mean, he ordered 326 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 1: nursing homes to take in COVID nineteen patients. We lead 327 00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:10,960 Speaker 1: the nation in nursing home deaths. One out of three 328 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:13,639 Speaker 1: small businesses have closed their doors forever. Now. We've got 329 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:16,399 Speaker 1: two seventy six thousand fewer jobs in New Jersey today 330 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:18,879 Speaker 1: than we did pre pandemic. And a lot of that 331 00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:21,879 Speaker 1: had to do with just inconsistencies in his executive orders. 332 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:23,520 Speaker 1: If you are on Main Street and you ran a 333 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:26,119 Speaker 1: jewelry store, he shut you down as non essential, but 334 00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:28,719 Speaker 1: the jewelry counter at Costco was open. If you you 335 00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:30,720 Speaker 1: own the bike shop, you weren't allowed to sell bikes, 336 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:33,880 Speaker 1: but Walmart was selling bikes. Uh, this is what we've 337 00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 1: seen from the governor, these kind of inconsistencies. So I 338 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 1: think we we have to follow the science. Of course, 339 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 1: we've got to promote, preserve and protect public health and safety. 340 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:45,280 Speaker 1: We've got to save lives. But I think we can 341 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:48,600 Speaker 1: also use a lot more common sense. So Jack, you know, 342 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 1: here at Bloomberg Radio, Tom and I have the benefit 343 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:54,360 Speaker 1: of speaking with experts, global experts on a daily basis, 344 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:59,720 Speaker 1: scientists and medical doctors about the science of fighting this pandemic. 345 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 1: And it kind of comes down to you gotta get vaccinated, 346 00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 1: you gotta wear a mask, that type of thing. But 347 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 1: you've opposed a vaccine and mask mandates. So what is 348 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 1: your plan to kind of increase vaccination rates and lower 349 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,879 Speaker 1: the COVID numbers. I'm vaccinated. I promoted my vaccination on 350 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 1: social media as hopefully an inspiration to folks. Um I 351 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:23,000 Speaker 1: encourage people strongly to get vaccinated. At the same time, 352 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:25,160 Speaker 1: do I believe government has a right to tell people 353 00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:28,720 Speaker 1: they have to get vaccinated. I just don't. My job 354 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:31,240 Speaker 1: in promoting, preserving, protecting the public health and safety is 355 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:33,679 Speaker 1: give people all the information they need to make an 356 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:37,520 Speaker 1: informed decision, and that's what I intend to do as governor. Okay, 357 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:40,240 Speaker 1: now we get to the point where the show comes 358 00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:46,120 Speaker 1: to complete Hall Jack property taxes in New Jersey. I mean, 359 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 1: I gazed from New York, I gaze in Connecticut, and 360 00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:53,600 Speaker 1: I go, if Jack shall really's elected, free beer or 361 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:57,159 Speaker 1: maybe lower property taxes? Great? How are you going to 362 00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 1: cover the budget if you lower the property to X? Well, 363 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,119 Speaker 1: listen to the property tax and the state budget are 364 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:06,359 Speaker 1: two very, very different things. Um. What a lot of 365 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,479 Speaker 1: people don't realize is that their property tax bill has 366 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:12,280 Speaker 1: three portions minipook tax, county tax, and in the school tax. 367 00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:14,520 Speaker 1: The school tax is the only one that's affected by 368 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 1: Trent and policy. And what I'm saying is the way 369 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:19,879 Speaker 1: that we distribute state aid to schools we need to redo. 370 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:21,919 Speaker 1: We need a new formula because that's one of the 371 00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 1: reasons why property taxes so igh in the New Jersey. 372 00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:26,520 Speaker 1: So as governor, I'll do my job in Trent. We're 373 00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:29,040 Speaker 1: coming up with a new school funding formula that provides 374 00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:31,920 Speaker 1: a flatter and more equitable distribution of state eight to schools. 375 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 1: Because you know what, We've got million dollar homes in 376 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 1: places like Jersey City and Hoboken that pay less in 377 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,800 Speaker 1: property taxes than a four and a thousand dollar home. Okay, 378 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:42,720 Speaker 1: so then you give it? Do you give it over 379 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:46,399 Speaker 1: to some form of elevated state income tax? You know, 380 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:50,280 Speaker 1: sales tax rather sales tax. Hey, listen, those discussions should 381 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:51,840 Speaker 1: be on the table. But I've got to introduce a 382 00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,679 Speaker 1: budget six weeks after I take office, and so my 383 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 1: job number one is to have a fairer distribution of 384 00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:02,920 Speaker 1: state A to schools, and that will lower property taxes. 385 00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 1: Under Governor Chittarelli, we're not going to have the million 386 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:08,920 Speaker 1: dollar homeowner getting state aid and having them pay less 387 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,280 Speaker 1: in property taxes than a four and thousand dollar homeowner 388 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 1: in Tom's River, Hillsboro or Parsippany. Jack, you've proposed cutting 389 00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:19,160 Speaker 1: New Jersey spending by as much as eleven billion dollars. 390 00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 1: Where does that come from? Well, that's the press. I 391 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:25,920 Speaker 1: never said that. What I've said is we need to downsize, modernize, 392 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:28,600 Speaker 1: and streamline our state government. And I planned to do that. 393 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:31,159 Speaker 1: But when people get specific with me about where the 394 00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 1: cut's gonna be, UM, what I always say to him is, 395 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:35,960 Speaker 1: I'll tell you what. Um. A lot of people said 396 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 1: that Phil Murphy's second budget was something that was a 397 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,560 Speaker 1: magnificent document. I'll tell you what, um, it's eight billion 398 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:43,520 Speaker 1: dollars less than he's currently spending. How about I I 399 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:45,879 Speaker 1: My first budget is film Murphy's second budget. We just 400 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:49,480 Speaker 1: saved eight billion dollars. We're speaking with Jack Schiarelli. He's 401 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:52,760 Speaker 1: the republic candidate for governor of New Jersey's running against 402 00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:56,879 Speaker 1: incumbent Phil Murphy. The election is November second in the 403 00:21:57,000 --> 00:22:00,919 Speaker 1: great state of New Jersey. So my peeve that I 404 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,359 Speaker 1: ask everybody who has anything to do with New Jersey 405 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:08,040 Speaker 1: New York politics is the Gateway Project. I am riding 406 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:11,160 Speaker 1: New Jersey transfer for thirty years under the Hudson River, 407 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:13,640 Speaker 1: just waiting for those hundred year old tunnels to come 408 00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:16,600 Speaker 1: crashing down on me. What can you do to advance 409 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:20,000 Speaker 1: as governor to advance that Gateway project? Well, the first 410 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:21,520 Speaker 1: thing I can do is create an economy in New 411 00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:23,120 Speaker 1: Jersey so you don't have to commute to New York 412 00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:26,320 Speaker 1: and not forfeit any pay. That's job number one. And 413 00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:29,240 Speaker 1: put policies in place that encourage you to to to 414 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 1: work in New Jersey. But listen, this, in my mind 415 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:37,920 Speaker 1: is a prototypical federal infrastructure project, and as governor, I 416 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:39,960 Speaker 1: tend to put a lot of pressure, in partnership with 417 00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:44,520 Speaker 1: our congressional delegation on the President UH to fund that project. 418 00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:47,679 Speaker 1: It needs to be done. Boston got the big dig 419 00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:50,919 Speaker 1: their tunnel under the Harbor, paid entirely for the FEDS. 420 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,679 Speaker 1: New Jersey has been a donor state for decades. We 421 00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,360 Speaker 1: send billions more to Washington see than we get returned 422 00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:59,639 Speaker 1: considering what this state's economy means the regional economy, and 423 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,480 Speaker 1: with the regional economy means that the national economy, let's 424 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:04,880 Speaker 1: get the shovel in the ground. Check there's a great 425 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:08,600 Speaker 1: this one more question here. We've got some time constraints, 426 00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 1: so this morning with you, I understand this is really important. 427 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:16,560 Speaker 1: We cover every day here the new Republican Party. It's 428 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 1: a divide between people in support of the former president 429 00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 1: and other Republicans trying to move on. Which are you listen. 430 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:28,320 Speaker 1: I supported the president's policies that worked for the nation. 431 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,200 Speaker 1: The challenge I had with the with the presidents he 432 00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,200 Speaker 1: had three policy positions, um that are not in favor 433 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:35,879 Speaker 1: of New Jersey. I will tell you here along the 434 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,600 Speaker 1: Jersey Shore, which we've been for twenty five years. Nobody 435 00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:40,960 Speaker 1: wants off shore drilling. I will tell you here in 436 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:43,440 Speaker 1: New Jersey want we want ours salt deduction back, the 437 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 1: ability to duck state and local taxes on our federal 438 00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:48,680 Speaker 1: tax return. Were a donor state. We want that tax 439 00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:51,520 Speaker 1: deduction back, and we want funding for the Gateway project. 440 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:55,159 Speaker 1: Donald Trump didn't support any of those things. And as governor, 441 00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,240 Speaker 1: it's my job to advocate for the people New Jersey, 442 00:23:57,280 --> 00:24:00,080 Speaker 1: and I always will. I'm writing in New Jery as 443 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,399 Speaker 1: she transit again today, there's not a lot of people 444 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,399 Speaker 1: on the train, but I look over the route to 445 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,440 Speaker 1: eighty jam packed. How do we get people back off 446 00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:10,000 Speaker 1: the roads and onto mass transit. It's always gonna be 447 00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,239 Speaker 1: very difficult than guys in New Jersey, even though I'll 448 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,080 Speaker 1: always advocate for it. Um. But New Jersey is a 449 00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:18,800 Speaker 1: sprawl state. That's our great challenge. So many of our 450 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 1: citizens live in communities where there is no mass transit um. 451 00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:26,600 Speaker 1: And so as a sprawl state, UM, We're gonna always 452 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:29,200 Speaker 1: let a lot of cars on our roads. But again, 453 00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,920 Speaker 1: what I hope to do is create a thriving economy 454 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:33,440 Speaker 1: here in New Jersey where people can find a good 455 00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:35,960 Speaker 1: paying job closer to home. Jack. I talked to someone 456 00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:39,399 Speaker 1: in Cheyenne, Wyoming once he said Wyoming was a sprawl state. 457 00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:43,760 Speaker 1: We'll see Jack, really good luck. November two the governor's 458 00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 1: race of the Garden State, the state of New Jersey. 459 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:56,119 Speaker 1: Right now, we're focused on this wonderful weekend of October. 460 00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,440 Speaker 1: Sometimes it's rainy and ugly, but it is always glorious 461 00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,439 Speaker 1: to have a on this day weekend across this nation, 462 00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:06,200 Speaker 1: and this year there is an anticipation the children will 463 00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:11,359 Speaker 1: be vaccinated. Andrew Pekoss joins from Johns Hopkins University for 464 00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,280 Speaker 1: Dr pecows, how's our life going to change when we 465 00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:20,160 Speaker 1: vaccinate the five to twelve Well, right now, children represent 466 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:24,000 Speaker 1: the largest population that doesn't have a lot of immunity 467 00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:29,240 Speaker 1: to COVID nineteen, So vaccinating that population is it's really 468 00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,359 Speaker 1: one of the final steps that we need to really 469 00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:35,680 Speaker 1: put in place um immunity across all age groups, which 470 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,640 Speaker 1: is going to really make an impact in terms of 471 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:40,840 Speaker 1: the number of cases of COVID nineteen that we have. 472 00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:44,560 Speaker 1: So FDA has a very busy week or two coming 473 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:48,800 Speaker 1: up right now with um vaccinations for five to eleven 474 00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 1: year old boosters for various other age groups. UM, and 475 00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,600 Speaker 1: so it's going to be really an interesting couple of 476 00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:57,600 Speaker 1: weeks to really tell what the rest of the fall 477 00:25:57,640 --> 00:25:59,360 Speaker 1: and early winter is going to be like. In terms 478 00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:02,240 Speaker 1: of our COVID vaccination campaign, people like you are in 479 00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:05,120 Speaker 1: the trenches in the line of fire. Here I can 480 00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,520 Speaker 1: see a fifteen year old with parents that say, don't 481 00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:11,480 Speaker 1: get vaccinated, just going out and doing themselves. I don't 482 00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,040 Speaker 1: know how that works. What do we do with kids 483 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:20,320 Speaker 1: in the family battles over vaccinated and unvaccinated. Well, it 484 00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:23,280 Speaker 1: really comes down to communication with the parents. UM. I've 485 00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 1: said this many times before. It starts with the fact 486 00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:30,240 Speaker 1: that we have a safe and an effective vaccine, and 487 00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:35,240 Speaker 1: particularly for children, the vaccine has been dosed differently to 488 00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:39,480 Speaker 1: make sure that we reduce the adverse events while maintaining 489 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:41,879 Speaker 1: the immunity, and the data that's going to come out 490 00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:44,080 Speaker 1: with the FDA is going to show a good safety 491 00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:47,640 Speaker 1: signature and a good efficacy signature in that population as well. 492 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,400 Speaker 1: But as always, it starts with communication. In the case 493 00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:52,639 Speaker 1: of kids, we have to talk to the parents and 494 00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 1: make sure the parents understand the safety and the efficacy 495 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:59,520 Speaker 1: of these vaccines, and then the potential benefit. Andy, My 496 00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:01,680 Speaker 1: younger SI was unexpectedly had to go to the doctor 497 00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,720 Speaker 1: recently and they didn't even test him for COVID, and 498 00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:07,480 Speaker 1: I'm wondering if that's appropriate. Basically, is it okay for 499 00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:09,719 Speaker 1: us to stop tracking this and to start treating it 500 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 1: like other common illnesses. I think we're getting there, personally, 501 00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,159 Speaker 1: I think we still need to do a lot more 502 00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:21,040 Speaker 1: in the short term in terms of monitoring for COVID 503 00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:25,000 Speaker 1: nineteen and testing. We're seeing the vaccine shift to more 504 00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:30,400 Speaker 1: mild symptoms asymptomatic infections. That's a good thing for their 505 00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:35,080 Speaker 1: overall population, but until we really can get more people vaccinated, 506 00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,720 Speaker 1: we need to continue to keep track of this virus 507 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:40,640 Speaker 1: in a better way. So I would really feel like 508 00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:43,320 Speaker 1: we for the next three months at least, we need 509 00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:47,400 Speaker 1: to push our vaccine are A uh COVID ninteen testing 510 00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:50,120 Speaker 1: to other levels, and that may involve things like at 511 00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:52,680 Speaker 1: home testing and ANAGIN testing, which is really going to 512 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:57,760 Speaker 1: bring another layer of testing and monitoring to this to 513 00:27:57,840 --> 00:27:59,439 Speaker 1: this outbreak, and the one thing that we do really 514 00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 1: well on bloom surveillances tracked British travel, particularly air travel, 515 00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:05,560 Speaker 1: and the United Kingdom recently eased entry rules for forty 516 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,600 Speaker 1: seven countries and territories that had been subject to the 517 00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:13,359 Speaker 1: tightest COVID nineteen restrictions. What has changed scientifically to allow 518 00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:16,880 Speaker 1: them to do so? Now, I think you've got good testing, 519 00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:21,160 Speaker 1: you've got vaccination that can be utilized as a as 520 00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:24,919 Speaker 1: as a as as a prerequisite for travel, and so 521 00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:28,240 Speaker 1: you can monitor people who are traveling much much more 522 00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:32,880 Speaker 1: carefully and accurately than we could have let's say, twelve 523 00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 1: months ago. So all of those things put in place 524 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:38,080 Speaker 1: allows us to open up the economy and open up 525 00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:40,640 Speaker 1: these things like travel. But again it's important to make 526 00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:44,760 Speaker 1: sure that everybody understands that this comes with monitoring, This 527 00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,480 Speaker 1: comes with testing, this comes with vaccination. These are other 528 00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:50,600 Speaker 1: layers of protection that are built into the system that 529 00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:52,760 Speaker 1: now allow us to do things like open up travel 530 00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:56,959 Speaker 1: and to pick us Eric Topo Audit Scripts research retreats 531 00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:59,880 Speaker 1: this morning, and this is what Lancet I should mention. 532 00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:04,800 Speaker 1: Published research of really good dot charts with the with 533 00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:10,320 Speaker 1: the Gaussian distribution which calculates the needless deaths in Florida 534 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:14,760 Speaker 1: and Texas from unvaccinated and the numbers are jaw dropping. 535 00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:19,240 Speaker 1: They're basically one third of the Vietnam six thousand plus 536 00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:22,600 Speaker 1: sixteen thousand. How's the pro like you deal with that? 537 00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,280 Speaker 1: It's one of the major things that that I think 538 00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,600 Speaker 1: when we look back in three or four years at 539 00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:33,760 Speaker 1: this pandemic, I really hope that we look back with 540 00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,560 Speaker 1: that with that lens of here are the things that 541 00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:39,160 Speaker 1: we could have done, that we could have implemented early 542 00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:41,959 Speaker 1: that could have saved lives, and we really focus in 543 00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:45,760 Speaker 1: on the reasons why they weren't implemented well. Some of them, 544 00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:49,400 Speaker 1: especially early on, were administrative bureaucratic things that got in 545 00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:52,400 Speaker 1: the way, But for the most part, um it really 546 00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:57,920 Speaker 1: falls into i'll be honest, baseless semi political arguments that 547 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,920 Speaker 1: are preventing the effective use of all the tools that 548 00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,360 Speaker 1: we have right now that will save lives. And this 549 00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:07,000 Speaker 1: inability for many people to understand about how much how 550 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:10,000 Speaker 1: many lives can be saved by effective use of vaccines 551 00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:13,400 Speaker 1: and antivirals and social distancing mechanisms is really one of 552 00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:16,800 Speaker 1: the major things that needs to be addressed going forward 553 00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:20,280 Speaker 1: for future pandemics, because not to be a downer here, 554 00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:22,640 Speaker 1: but there will be future pandemics and we need to 555 00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:25,360 Speaker 1: learn from this one and be more effective and prepared 556 00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:27,520 Speaker 1: for the next one. Let's have the next one is 557 00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:30,160 Speaker 1: nothing like this one. Andy, Thank you, Andrew pecost that 558 00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:34,440 Speaker 1: Jones Helpkins profess that. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 559 00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:38,000 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to 560 00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:42,200 Speaker 1: ten am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television 561 00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:46,560 Speaker 1: each day from six to nine am for insight from 562 00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:51,160 Speaker 1: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. And 563 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:56,360 Speaker 1: subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg 564 00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,960 Speaker 1: dot com, and of course, on the terminal, I'm tom Key. 565 00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:02,080 Speaker 1: Even this is Bloomer