WEBVTT - Why New Rules Are Needed to Avoid War in Space: Pippa Malmgren 0:00:00.320 --> 0:00:01.440 John Man. 0:00:01.760 --> 0:00:06.560 It's been two years, two years fourteen. Interest rate rises 0:00:07.080 --> 0:00:10.360 felt like it's never going to stop. But it has stopped, 0:00:10.440 --> 0:00:14.520 hasn't it? Yes? Hooray, hooray? And is it over? Is 0:00:14.560 --> 0:00:17.320 it over? Are the interest rate rises over? Is it 0:00:17.400 --> 0:00:18.919 now going to I know what's going to happen now, 0:00:19.200 --> 0:00:21.560 first quarter of next year. First cuts, They're just going 0:00:21.640 --> 0:00:23.560 to keep cutting. It's going to go back down to 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:26.120 near zero. House prices are going to go up thirty percent, 0:00:26.360 --> 0:00:28.720 Our portfolios are going to go up thirty percent. Everything's 0:00:28.720 --> 0:00:29.480 going to be fine. 0:00:30.560 --> 0:00:36.040 It's going to be marvelous. I'd say, you really believe that. 0:00:37.560 --> 0:00:39.200 I don't think it's going to go back to zero, 0:00:39.320 --> 0:00:44.400 but it is weird. The Bank of England obviously has 0:00:44.400 --> 0:00:46.680 held interest rate. It's at five and the quarter percent, 0:00:46.760 --> 0:00:49.680 and it's sitting there saying, oh, yeah, but this might 0:00:49.720 --> 0:00:52.080 not be it. We still really worried about inflation, but 0:00:52.159 --> 0:00:56.080 still really worries about wage rises. But of course the 0:00:56.200 --> 0:00:59.160 night before the fads has come along, and never minute 0:00:59.200 --> 0:01:01.520 thought that they would do the same thing. Everyone had 0:01:01.520 --> 0:01:05.560 thought that the Federal Reserves, the US Central Bank would say, Okay, 0:01:05.560 --> 0:01:08.680 we're holding interest rates, but don't get too excited because 0:01:08.680 --> 0:01:12.080 we're still worried about inflation. And instead what they said was, okay, 0:01:12.120 --> 0:01:14.480 we're holding interest rates and actually next year we're probably 0:01:14.480 --> 0:01:17.319 going to cut by three quarters of a percentage point, 0:01:17.400 --> 0:01:20.960 so three interest rate cuts, and immediately the market just 0:01:21.080 --> 0:01:24.800 exploded higher. Because it's kind of that thing about the 0:01:26.200 --> 0:01:29.240 the central bank boss adding whiskey to the punch bowl. 0:01:29.440 --> 0:01:32.920 That's basically what happened. So the FEDS can open the 0:01:33.319 --> 0:01:36.240 floodgates for everyone to get all excited about rate cuts 0:01:36.240 --> 0:01:38.720 in the Bank England is kind of somewhat futilely trying 0:01:38.720 --> 0:01:41.160 to pretend that it's not going to end up having 0:01:41.240 --> 0:01:41.959 to followed suit. 0:01:43.319 --> 0:01:46.800 But why do you think the feed has done this? 0:01:46.959 --> 0:01:49.600 Because you know, obviously they look really stupid, having been 0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:51.440 just like the Bank of England, having been so late 0:01:51.600 --> 0:01:54.760 to come to trying to deal with inflation, and we've 0:01:54.800 --> 0:01:58.400 been rather assuming that they would want to look like 0:01:58.440 --> 0:02:00.720 they'd really knocked it on the head. They'd want to 0:02:00.720 --> 0:02:02.880 be a bit macho, and so the odds of a 0:02:02.920 --> 0:02:07.120 policy mistake too far in the rate rising direction it's 0:02:07.360 --> 0:02:12.280 more likely than cutting too early, right. But now suddenly 0:02:12.400 --> 0:02:16.079 they seem to be backing off from you know, the 0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:18.640 last bit is the hardest. We're going to take it 0:02:18.680 --> 0:02:20.960 all the way and you know, inflation is never going 0:02:20.960 --> 0:02:22.480 to get past us again, et cetera. 0:02:24.000 --> 0:02:27.960 Yeah, I quite be honestly, I have no idea this. 0:02:28.280 --> 0:02:31.240 You know, the market reaction is a demonstration that it 0:02:31.320 --> 0:02:35.639 did take people by surprise that they basically said, yeah, no, 0:02:35.760 --> 0:02:40.360 it's fine, well done there. And all I can think 0:02:40.480 --> 0:02:48.639 of is that they genuinely do think that inflation has 0:02:48.680 --> 0:02:52.720 been overcome and that they're not worried about it coming back, 0:02:53.600 --> 0:02:56.960 which takes me is that would be very kind of 0:02:57.120 --> 0:02:59.640 you know, that'd be quite a silly thing to think. 0:02:59.639 --> 0:03:03.880 Well, it's it's very nineteen seventies, isn't it very nineteen seventy? 0:03:04.160 --> 0:03:05.560 You know, there are quite a few cycles in the 0:03:05.600 --> 0:03:07.520 nineteen seventies when we got to a position like this, 0:03:07.720 --> 0:03:10.280 Inflation had fallen quite a lot. Central banks right, oh 0:03:10.320 --> 0:03:12.399 look see on week clever, we did that it's all 0:03:12.400 --> 0:03:16.000 over and started muttering back cutting rates, did cut right, 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:18.239 and then then you know, inflation would turn around and 0:03:18.240 --> 0:03:21.799 split up again. It just seems like a very interesting 0:03:21.960 --> 0:03:26.880 take in a geopolitically complicated world when we increasingly understand 0:03:26.919 --> 0:03:30.560 that that nasty geopolitics lead to inflation where there's lots 0:03:30.600 --> 0:03:33.960 of moving parts, lots of odd stuff happening, it just 0:03:33.960 --> 0:03:35.840 seems bizarrely complacent to me. 0:03:36.760 --> 0:03:39.520 I would definitely disclaim it's fool hardly. Kevin's in the 0:03:39.600 --> 0:03:44.400 market had already you know, loosing financial conditions, because it's 0:03:44.400 --> 0:03:46.280 not as if, you know, bind deals were going down 0:03:46.400 --> 0:03:51.280 and then into you know, stocks were going up. It's 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:56.280 not as if the fair is pushing back against an 0:03:56.280 --> 0:03:59.520 overly what it sees as an overly tape mask. And 0:03:59.640 --> 0:04:04.200 only you can justify this, I think, is by if 0:04:04.400 --> 0:04:05.720 you know, we're getting trying to get into the head 0:04:05.720 --> 0:04:09.640 of the policy maker and thinking, right, well, actually, I 0:04:09.640 --> 0:04:12.040 don't think inflation is going to go much higher. The 0:04:12.040 --> 0:04:13.680 fact think it's going to go lower, and that means 0:04:13.680 --> 0:04:16.160 that real interest rates are going to be higher, and 0:04:16.240 --> 0:04:21.360 so that means that current conditions are restrictive. But I mean, 0:04:22.800 --> 0:04:25.679 it's one of those ones where I do find it 0:04:25.800 --> 0:04:29.280 somewhat hard to explain why they've just decided, because it's 0:04:29.360 --> 0:04:31.679 kind of it is very much like throwing the market 0:04:31.680 --> 0:04:35.920 at Christmas present, and if you know, if it wasn't 0:04:35.960 --> 0:04:38.839 for the fact that I don't think the FED in 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:46.279 the States is especially party politicized. You would have to 0:04:46.360 --> 0:04:48.599 think the fact that we're coming up to twenty twenty 0:04:48.600 --> 0:04:54.480 four election year would seem it seems like an It's 0:04:54.640 --> 0:04:58.719 just it seems like an odd time to be encouraging 0:04:58.880 --> 0:05:01.520 markets higher because the S and P five hundred is 0:05:01.560 --> 0:05:06.080 already okay, sorry, the Magnificent seven stocks are already very expensive. 0:05:06.400 --> 0:05:09.560 Yeah, However, obviously the market reacts, and we do know 0:05:09.640 --> 0:05:11.880 that the best time to buy equize is when importuated 0:05:11.920 --> 0:05:12.359 to falling. 0:05:13.279 --> 0:05:17.719 Oh, it's yeah. And you know, on that front, UK 0:05:17.800 --> 0:05:20.480 stocks are still cheap, well not quite as cheap as 0:05:20.520 --> 0:05:24.560 they were, you know, kind of three or four months ago, 0:05:24.600 --> 0:05:27.279 but they're still cheap. I was looking at the house 0:05:27.320 --> 0:05:33.560 builders again this morning, and I'm so glad that my 0:05:33.640 --> 0:05:37.520 ethics would stop me from buying them anyway. That might 0:05:37.760 --> 0:05:40.040 be kind of like kicking myself, because you know, they 0:05:40.040 --> 0:05:42.080 have they've kind of gone up a lot in the 0:05:42.160 --> 0:05:45.680 last kind of like six months or so. But you 0:05:45.760 --> 0:05:47.760 know that that can I imagine that for the foot 0:05:47.760 --> 0:05:51.880 SAE two fifty particularly, there's probably more to come, because 0:05:52.200 --> 0:05:54.279 I suppose the other point here is that everyone's still 0:05:54.320 --> 0:05:56.919 really gloomy about the UK economy. 0:05:57.240 --> 0:05:59.920 Yes, gloomy, you know, well gloomy about the UK economy. 0:05:59.920 --> 0:06:01.520 I know, but I've just got an email through from 0:06:01.560 --> 0:06:04.719 one of the one of the platforms asking people where 0:06:04.720 --> 0:06:07.080 they expect to invest next week, when next year, or 0:06:07.080 --> 0:06:09.360 where they intend to invest next year. And the UK 0:06:09.520 --> 0:06:12.520 is really popular with retail investors at the moment, and 0:06:12.600 --> 0:06:15.400 one of sensible that's be their sense. Well well done, 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:18.039 retail investors one in four expect the forty one hundred 0:06:18.040 --> 0:06:21.200 to twenty twenty four over eight thousand, eight and ten 0:06:21.360 --> 0:06:24.800 planning to put up their exposure to equities, particularly UK equities, 0:06:25.000 --> 0:06:28.520 most popular market globally for UK investors. So while you know, 0:06:28.600 --> 0:06:31.320 our our institutional investors and our pension funds, et cetera 0:06:31.400 --> 0:06:35.320 couldn't be getting out faster, our retail investors are thinking, well, actually, 0:06:35.360 --> 0:06:37.520 you know, okay, cheap is cheap. That's nice. 0:06:38.480 --> 0:06:40.359 Yeah, but I suppose it's all sort of thing is 0:06:40.360 --> 0:06:42.760 like Andrew Bailey going on a bit who he supposed 0:06:42.760 --> 0:06:45.760 to wash through without look that he's ever seen, and 0:06:47.160 --> 0:06:50.320 you know, sort of but I just don't. I don't 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:54.520 see this. So next year, the cost of leving is 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:57.560 not going to be as drastic because real wages are 0:06:57.600 --> 0:07:01.800 going up. All the people who are terrified of what 0:07:01.839 --> 0:07:04.400 the mortgage was going to be, say six months ago, 0:07:05.000 --> 0:07:07.400 are now going to be refinancing at a lower rate 0:07:07.480 --> 0:07:09.440 than they expected. It's going to be higher than this. 0:07:10.880 --> 0:07:12.240 There's not a time to expect it. 0:07:12.600 --> 0:07:15.360 Yeah, it's expectations that are the people if it's time 0:07:15.400 --> 0:07:17.520 to prepare for all this stuff. And a lot of 0:07:17.520 --> 0:07:20.600 the debt doesn't the corporate debt doesn't roll over till 0:07:20.600 --> 0:07:26.000 twenty twenty five. So I am struggling to see from 0:07:26.160 --> 0:07:28.679 that kind of attempting to be objective point of view, 0:07:29.040 --> 0:07:31.920 why two losing in twenty four should be such a 0:07:31.960 --> 0:07:35.080 bad year when all of the kind of headwinds that 0:07:35.120 --> 0:07:40.040 we faced in twenty twenty three are diminishing, if not 0:07:40.160 --> 0:07:41.600 turning into tailwinds. 0:07:43.040 --> 0:07:46.600 Great optimists that you are, now, John, what is that? 0:07:46.760 --> 0:07:49.600 What does that mean? Fulling interest rates, particularly in the 0:07:49.680 --> 0:07:53.640 US economy is not as bad as other people think. 0:07:54.040 --> 0:07:55.880 Does that mean that? I know we say this all 0:07:55.880 --> 0:07:58.080 the time, but it's really time to think about the 0:07:58.160 --> 0:08:01.480 ukn investment trust sector and enjoy that double discount. You 0:08:01.520 --> 0:08:03.480 still think that about you? Yeah? 0:08:03.680 --> 0:08:07.640 I and you know, having been early all year if 0:08:07.680 --> 0:08:10.560 you like. It's that's the whole point of being a 0:08:10.560 --> 0:08:13.200 retail investor. You can be patient. It's about the only 0:08:13.240 --> 0:08:17.200 advantage you've got over an institutional investor. But yeah, I 0:08:17.240 --> 0:08:22.840 think that investment trusts me be a good idea. I 0:08:22.880 --> 0:08:26.200 was reading actually an interesting piece from Stifle, one of 0:08:26.240 --> 0:08:29.120 the brokers, kind of earlier this week that was suggesting 0:08:29.160 --> 0:08:31.760 that even like Scottish mortgage might be a good one, 0:08:31.800 --> 0:08:35.080 because I know that's the obviously it's been. It was 0:08:35.120 --> 0:08:38.160 the hot kind of growth one for ages. It's still 0:08:38.200 --> 0:08:42.760 trading on a discounty about nine percent. When I look 0:08:42.800 --> 0:08:46.360 at what UP is doing in the States, and it's 0:08:46.400 --> 0:08:49.200 the kind of very growthy one. You can see that 0:08:49.240 --> 0:08:52.199 it's about to burst higher from you know, it's a 0:08:52.280 --> 0:08:55.439 year ago high, and I can just see the kind 0:08:55.440 --> 0:08:58.040 of growth stuff and you know, anything that's kind of 0:08:58.080 --> 0:09:00.640 attuned to interest rates kind of boat and I had 0:09:00.679 --> 0:09:03.520 almost an a kneedjate basis so that maybe want to 0:09:03.559 --> 0:09:05.199 look at but you know what, lots of the other 0:09:05.240 --> 0:09:08.080 stuff is cheap doing putting all the value kind of stuff. 0:09:08.120 --> 0:09:12.360 So yeah, we just get the speed and the hard 0:09:12.400 --> 0:09:14.480 time and god digging, and we. 0:09:14.400 --> 0:09:18.079 Should remind everybody, by the way, that ARC's bottom was 0:09:18.080 --> 0:09:20.120 pretty much around when Kathy Words came on our show, 0:09:20.200 --> 0:09:20.560 wasn't it. 0:09:21.280 --> 0:09:22.440 Yeah, Yeah, we are. 0:09:22.480 --> 0:09:24.520 We are a signal. We are a signal. 0:09:27.480 --> 0:09:29.040 Not going to see which wine I'm going to say 0:09:29.040 --> 0:09:29.400 which one. 0:09:29.400 --> 0:09:31.600 We are all sorts of signals, which reminds me, which 0:09:31.640 --> 0:09:34.000 reminds me. I don't want to make this interesting no 0:09:34.120 --> 0:09:36.679 for too long, But I did a poll on on 0:09:36.720 --> 0:09:41.760 Twitter asking our readers about bitter about bitcoin, gold or cash, 0:09:41.800 --> 0:09:44.320 so that they would have the opportunity to answer in 0:09:44.360 --> 0:09:47.200 the same way as our guests, and it was hijacked, 0:09:47.800 --> 0:09:52.040 hijacked by the bitcoiners, and so it ended up being 0:09:52.080 --> 0:09:54.320 I can't remember what the final result was, but nearly 0:09:54.360 --> 0:09:58.280 seventy percent bitcoin and under thirty percent gold, which I 0:09:58.280 --> 0:10:02.520 thought was absolutely fascinating because is a complete lesson in liquidity, right. 0:10:03.080 --> 0:10:05.480 It is not It is not the case. It is 0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:07.520 not the case that sixty or seventy percent of the 0:10:07.520 --> 0:10:09.800 people who follow me on Twitter, who listen to us 0:10:09.880 --> 0:10:14.760 on this show would take bitcoin over gold. But it 0:10:14.960 --> 0:10:17.760 is the case that if you can create a liquidity rush, 0:10:18.400 --> 0:10:20.320 you can force something up. So I just thought that 0:10:20.360 --> 0:10:23.800 absolutely bring is the story of bitcoin in a Twitter 0:10:23.920 --> 0:10:27.160 poll hate mail to be easily addressed, thank you very much. 0:10:27.640 --> 0:10:30.959 Right now, we are moving into December. This is exciting 0:10:31.040 --> 0:10:33.480 Christmas coming, and that means that for the rest of 0:10:33.520 --> 0:10:35.560 this month we are going to do something slightly different. 0:10:35.600 --> 0:10:39.400 We're going to bring you conversations that are slightly off 0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:43.720 the investment track holiday listening that's going to make you 0:10:43.800 --> 0:10:46.440 think about something other than investment trust though of course 0:10:46.520 --> 0:10:49.840 John will continue to think about investment trusts and nothing 0:10:49.880 --> 0:10:52.440 else all the way through until we go back to 0:10:52.480 --> 0:10:55.600 marketing stuff in January. So this week, with all that 0:10:55.640 --> 0:10:57.760 in mind about challenging you to think about things in 0:10:57.760 --> 0:11:00.439 a slightly different way, we've got Pipper Malgram, who's been 0:11:00.440 --> 0:11:03.840 on the show before, talking about geopolitics and all this 0:11:03.960 --> 0:11:06.640 kind of things. She's absolutely fascinating, so listen to her 0:11:06.880 --> 0:11:09.520 in this one. And then next week we've got a 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:12.640 really interesting guest and we're talking about the future of farming, 0:11:12.640 --> 0:11:15.320 which again is slightly off propic for us, but very 0:11:15.520 --> 0:11:18.199 very interesting and the kind of thing that you'll absolutely 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:27.560 want to talk about over Christmas lunch. Welcome to Marrin 0:11:27.559 --> 0:11:29.480 Talks Money, the podcast in which people who know the 0:11:29.520 --> 0:11:32.040 markets explain the markets. I'm Marry in Sunset Web. This 0:11:32.120 --> 0:11:34.959 week we're bringing a conversation with Piper Malgram, economist, author, 0:11:35.000 --> 0:11:38.760 and former advisor to US President George W. Bush. Now, 0:11:38.800 --> 0:11:41.200 as we promise, this is a wide ranging conversation. We're 0:11:41.200 --> 0:11:43.200 going to talk about all sorts of things, the conflict's 0:11:43.200 --> 0:11:46.679 growing across the globe, some reported on, some not so 0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:49.240 reported on, about what's going on in space, and about 0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:54.840 her expectations for their next president. Pipper, thank you so 0:11:54.920 --> 0:11:58.480 much for coming in today. What a delighted us. Ever, Oh, 0:11:58.640 --> 0:12:02.560 it's been a while. It's our last conversation, and last 0:12:02.600 --> 0:12:05.800 time we talked about how it rather looked like World 0:12:05.840 --> 0:12:09.120 War three was kicking off, and you said, people aren't 0:12:09.160 --> 0:12:11.600 noticing yet, but all the signs of there. There are 0:12:11.640 --> 0:12:14.000 hot wars, there are cold wars, there are underwater wars, 0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:16.679 there are space wars. There's all kinds of stuff going on, 0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:21.079 and it's time everyone took notice of that. And people 0:12:21.080 --> 0:12:22.680 are they're beginning to notice, aren't they. 0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:26.560 They are now. But it's amazing how they missed all 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:32.120 the signals that this was coming. I mean, there have 0:12:32.160 --> 0:12:37.079 been so many incidents. I guess the issue is there's 0:12:37.160 --> 0:12:43.480 no overarching narrative, so instead the media focuses principally on 0:12:43.559 --> 0:12:47.079 the things they can photograph. It's the old rule. If 0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:50.079 it bleeds, it leads, so there has to be a 0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:54.319 human interest story. So Ukraine, that's an event, but it's 0:12:54.360 --> 0:12:58.880 seen as a localized war. Now we have Gaza and 0:12:59.000 --> 0:13:02.280 Israel and that's it seems like another localized war, and 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:06.800 both produced these incredible photo ops. But in the background 0:13:06.880 --> 0:13:11.480 we've had events like even before the Russians rolled the 0:13:11.520 --> 0:13:15.520 tanks into Ukraine, we had this extraordinary incident where someone 0:13:15.720 --> 0:13:19.120 cut the fastest internet cable in the world, which is 0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:22.000 up in the Arctic Circle in a part of Norway 0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:26.120 called Spalbard. And you ask why is the fastest internet 0:13:26.120 --> 0:13:28.920 connection in the world in this incredibly obscure place, and 0:13:28.960 --> 0:13:31.960 the answer is because virtually every major satellite connects to 0:13:31.960 --> 0:13:35.640 Earth at that spot. And so it was literally an 0:13:35.679 --> 0:13:40.199 effort to eliminate the ability to have missile guidance or 0:13:40.240 --> 0:13:41.960 frankly GPS. 0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:43.880 And that really felt like an active wood didn't. 0:13:43.760 --> 0:13:46.760 Well, and the British Chief of the Defense Forces, Sir 0:13:46.800 --> 0:13:50.040 Tony radikin the next day came out and said, this 0:13:50.640 --> 0:13:53.560 is an active war and then he went completely quiet 0:13:53.840 --> 0:13:57.360 because everyone in NATO and the United States went, Holy moly, 0:13:57.440 --> 0:14:01.400 we don't want to say we are actually were directly 0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:04.240 with Russia. It's a very different thing to be involved 0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:10.000 in proxy conflicts in third party locations than a direct confrontation. 0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:11.160 And same with China. 0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:13.160 And also, how do you prove who cut that cable? 0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:17.360 Well, exactly, and they're still investigating that whole thing. But 0:14:17.480 --> 0:14:20.960 since then, there's no question we have had lots of 0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:27.040 Internet cable cuts, particularly the subsea cables all over the world, 0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:30.680 the what do they call it, the Marseille cable that 0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:33.160 connects the United States, Europe and the Middle East. 0:14:34.400 --> 0:14:37.080 Evenly keeping told, these are sort of mistakes by fishermen. 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:42.040 Well, like look at the most recent one, the Baltic Connector, 0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:46.600 where the allegation is that it's a Chinese vessel called 0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:50.800 the New New Polar Bear, and it is apparently it 0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:54.120 dragged its anchor across it, and the fact that an 0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:56.760 anchor is missing off the New New Polar Bear is 0:14:56.840 --> 0:14:59.360 kind of a giveaway. But of course no one wants 0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:01.760 to come out and say the Chinese have deliberately done 0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:04.800 this or look at that as a real possibility, but 0:15:05.200 --> 0:15:10.120 I think that within strategic security circles, everyone understands there's 0:15:10.160 --> 0:15:13.720 an underwater war going on, and it is about the 0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:18.760 communications infrastructure of the superpowers. But it's not only those 0:15:20.320 --> 0:15:24.080 I've also described that we're in, well, a hot warn 0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:27.240 cold place is meaning space where we have lots of 0:15:27.280 --> 0:15:31.120 incidents with satellites, space events. But look, there are no 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:34.960 journalists there and it's mostly classified. So every once in 0:15:35.000 --> 0:15:38.120 a while you'll read about the Russians destroy their own 0:15:38.240 --> 0:15:41.520 satellite and you're like, well, who cares then, Well, because 0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:44.880 it creates this massive debris field that is described as 0:15:45.000 --> 0:15:46.680 razor blades in a washing machine. 0:15:46.880 --> 0:15:50.440 That creates a space that other countries call go into correct, So. 0:15:50.360 --> 0:15:53.680 It's a denial of access strategy. There are lots of 0:15:53.720 --> 0:15:56.840 those types of incidents, and we're in a proper space 0:15:56.920 --> 0:16:01.080 race now between especially the United States in China as 0:16:01.080 --> 0:16:05.280 to who gets the first physical foothold and military base 0:16:05.400 --> 0:16:08.560 on the Moon, which is its own story by itself. 0:16:09.040 --> 0:16:11.320 But we also see this sort of hot war and 0:16:11.400 --> 0:16:14.360 cold places in the High North and the Arctic. We're 0:16:14.360 --> 0:16:17.720 certainly seeing it in the Baltic and then we're in 0:16:17.760 --> 0:16:21.720 a cold war in hot places, especially Africa, where we've 0:16:21.720 --> 0:16:24.640 seen the West facing off with the Wagner Group of 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:30.680 Russia in many locations, the whole Sahel conflict arguably, which 0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:33.680 is you know, North Africa across the Sahara. And then 0:16:33.880 --> 0:16:38.560 in the Pacific we have what General Millie, the outgoing 0:16:38.640 --> 0:16:41.840 Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, has said is an underreported 0:16:42.040 --> 0:16:45.320 massive military build up in the Pacific, which is true, 0:16:46.000 --> 0:16:50.320 and that is very much about establishing footholds on strategic 0:16:50.840 --> 0:16:54.600 Pacific islands. And it's the US and China again jockeying 0:16:54.680 --> 0:16:57.720 for a position. So I don't see how you can 0:16:57.760 --> 0:17:00.600 look at the map and say we're not in a 0:17:00.680 --> 0:17:02.400 global conflict. 0:17:02.720 --> 0:17:04.960 But it's scars. It's hot to see who's on what side, 0:17:05.000 --> 0:17:07.440 and who the goodies are and who the bodies. 0:17:07.320 --> 0:17:09.920 Well, and this is an open question too. This is 0:17:09.960 --> 0:17:15.840 about superpowers being in conflict over their different objectives, and 0:17:15.880 --> 0:17:19.600 the world lines up differently behind each of those superpowers 0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:23.760 and changes their minds. I mean, the events in Gaza 0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:27.399 and Israel are changing a lot of people's minds, and 0:17:27.440 --> 0:17:30.919 that may be part of the strategy is to create 0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:34.879 an incident that actually divides the West. If that's the case, 0:17:34.920 --> 0:17:38.760 it certainly is doing that. But I think this is 0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:42.199 what they call the gray zone in warfare. It's not 0:17:42.320 --> 0:17:46.639 the traditional tank meets tank on a battlefield. This is 0:17:46.680 --> 0:17:53.200 about using information as warfare. It's about cutting off communications capability. 0:17:54.040 --> 0:17:57.840 It's a whole different kind of what they call hybrid warfare. 0:17:57.920 --> 0:18:00.600 And I think it's taken amazingly long, especially for the 0:18:00.600 --> 0:18:05.639 financial markets, to really comprehend the global nature of this phenomena. 0:18:06.720 --> 0:18:08.560 And if you look at it, I just want to 0:18:08.560 --> 0:18:11.280 go back to hots and cold places and space, etc. 0:18:11.880 --> 0:18:14.000 A lot of that is that getting a foothold on 0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:16.240 the Moon for example. It's communications, but is it also 0:18:16.359 --> 0:18:20.320 access two minerals, Because we're hearing a lot about mining asteroids, 0:18:20.359 --> 0:18:22.760 for example, and we're hearing a lot about being able 0:18:22.760 --> 0:18:25.800 to put solar stations in space and that being the 0:18:25.800 --> 0:18:29.680 greatest way for us to get easy, straightforward and something 0:18:29.720 --> 0:18:33.200 that is refer renewables, reliable energy. So there's a lot 0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:35.680 going on in space that is not just about communications. 0:18:35.760 --> 0:18:37.680 It's about energy. 0:18:37.600 --> 0:18:43.120 Minerals, yeah, and command and control. So yeah, I think 0:18:43.160 --> 0:18:46.919 people really have a hard time understanding the implications of 0:18:47.160 --> 0:18:51.000 two new energy technologies. One is space based solar power, 0:18:51.400 --> 0:18:54.560 which has been proven by both cal Tech with the 0:18:55.040 --> 0:18:58.680 Jet Propulsion Lab and by Airbus, So it's no longer hypothetical. 0:18:58.960 --> 0:19:02.720 I'm put simply, you literally put special mirrors on satellites, 0:19:03.040 --> 0:19:06.640 catch the Sun's rays, convert them into radio waves, safely 0:19:06.680 --> 0:19:10.040 transmit them to Earth, and now you have unlimited, clean 0:19:10.240 --> 0:19:13.440 green electricity and any power grid anywhere at any time. 0:19:13.720 --> 0:19:18.120 That still doesn't take away our problems of storage and transmission. 0:19:18.200 --> 0:19:21.240 We still have to overcome. Well those barriers before. 0:19:21.880 --> 0:19:23.560 You don't have to worry about as much. 0:19:23.520 --> 0:19:24.880 If you because it just keeps coming. 0:19:25.040 --> 0:19:29.399 Just turn the button on it goes. The distribution piece 0:19:29.520 --> 0:19:32.320 also less relevant because you can just pump it to 0:19:32.480 --> 0:19:37.240 whichever power grids you want, so the distribution side becomes 0:19:37.440 --> 0:19:38.520 less of a problem. 0:19:38.560 --> 0:19:40.160 But then you have to pump it via a grid. 0:19:40.720 --> 0:19:41.720 Well, you still need a grid. 0:19:41.920 --> 0:19:43.600 Yeah, So what I'm saying, I don't have to get 0:19:43.640 --> 0:19:46.040 it to grade, yeah, exactly. 0:19:46.240 --> 0:19:49.399 Nonetheless, this is a such a game change or that 0:19:49.440 --> 0:19:52.560 the Saudis are backing the British in one of the 0:19:52.560 --> 0:19:55.480 first prototypes, which will be done over the North Sea, 0:19:55.600 --> 0:19:57.720 because they can see their hydrocarbons are going to be 0:19:57.760 --> 0:20:01.520 worth a whole lot less once this goes live. So 0:20:01.760 --> 0:20:06.679 imagine if you could have access to cheap, unlimited energy. 0:20:07.080 --> 0:20:10.000 That is such a game changer for any economy on 0:20:10.040 --> 0:20:12.320 our So whoever gets their first is way ahead of 0:20:12.359 --> 0:20:16.320 the other. The second one is nuclear fusion. And the 0:20:16.320 --> 0:20:19.679 thing about nuclear fusion is, yes, we're making advances very quickly, 0:20:19.680 --> 0:20:23.000 but we still don't have anything operational. We're not that 0:20:23.080 --> 0:20:26.840 close to a prototype. But what everyone understands is the 0:20:26.880 --> 0:20:30.360 Moon is full of helium three, and you need helium 0:20:30.400 --> 0:20:34.840 three for the nuclear fusion process. And our expectation is 0:20:34.880 --> 0:20:36.520 we're not going to the Moon to step on it. 0:20:36.720 --> 0:20:39.040 We're going to the Moon to stay and to build 0:20:39.160 --> 0:20:42.119 and to launch from it. That means you need both 0:20:42.160 --> 0:20:46.160 space based solar power and nuclear fusion on the lunar surface. 0:20:46.800 --> 0:20:50.480 So this is one reason we're in an outright race, 0:20:51.160 --> 0:20:56.520 and there's a genuine geopolitical competition to prevent other superpowers 0:20:56.520 --> 0:20:57.440 from getting their first. 0:20:57.960 --> 0:20:59.840 Okay, hence flowing up your own satellites. 0:21:00.200 --> 0:21:03.240 Yeah, And the great story I love about, because I've 0:21:03.320 --> 0:21:06.840 always been in robotics, is that only the Americans and 0:21:06.880 --> 0:21:10.719 the Chinese have satellites with robotic arms, and the Chinese 0:21:10.760 --> 0:21:13.400 have now demonstrated they can go up to a satellite, 0:21:13.880 --> 0:21:18.159 grab it and literally hurl it into outer space, which 0:21:18.400 --> 0:21:20.960 has got the Americans going, Holy moly, what do we 0:21:21.000 --> 0:21:22.640 do if they grab one of ours. 0:21:22.520 --> 0:21:24.680 Which they easily could, which they easily could. 0:21:24.920 --> 0:21:28.600 And this is one of the reasons why the US 0:21:28.600 --> 0:21:31.439 and everybody else is moving so fast in the direction 0:21:31.480 --> 0:21:34.760 of these tiny shoe box satellites that are so small 0:21:34.880 --> 0:21:38.240 you can't really target them. Space is so vast it's 0:21:38.320 --> 0:21:42.960 very difficult to target them all. But look when Elon 0:21:43.080 --> 0:21:46.800 Musk he was using Starlink to assist the Ukrainians, the 0:21:46.920 --> 0:21:50.200 Chinese came out and said, hey, you're a military company 0:21:50.760 --> 0:21:54.000 and he said, no, no, no, I'm not. And they said, well, yeah, 0:21:54.040 --> 0:21:57.639 because the Ukrainians are using your satellites to do offensive 0:21:57.640 --> 0:22:00.479 military operations. He said no, no, no, no, We're just doing 0:22:00.600 --> 0:22:04.040 humanitarian But the Chinese said, well, look, if you keep 0:22:04.119 --> 0:22:06.840 doing this, then we're going to build our own mega 0:22:06.880 --> 0:22:10.240 constellation and ours will be armed and we will be 0:22:10.280 --> 0:22:15.200 able to take out your satellites. And notice interesting sidebar story, 0:22:15.560 --> 0:22:21.280 Rwanda has applied for permissions to have the largest satellite 0:22:21.359 --> 0:22:25.680 network of all And you're like Rwanda now that country 0:22:25.760 --> 0:22:28.199