Speaker 1: Check it down man now down Man Thursday morning, January
Speaker 1: twenty and twenty one. Is that a pound room though
Speaker 1: that was yesterday? It's kill Alexander. This is a mega pod,
Speaker 1: the Beating the Book megapod for Championship Week in the
Speaker 1: National Football League. We do not have Mike Palm on
Speaker 1: the show today. Uh, Mikey are our staple right here
Speaker 1: alongside at the D where we broadcast live from here, Uh,
Speaker 1: the D downtown in Las Vegas. Mikey is in a
Speaker 1: four hour budget meeting. Um that that does not sound
Speaker 1: fun at all. I'm gonna check every line item for
Speaker 1: four hours. Todd Wishnev is here, the other staple of
Speaker 1: the show from his mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, PA.
Speaker 1: How you doing, Toddy? Hi? Hi? Todd has his face
Speaker 1: turned to the left because he's sweating it under not
Speaker 1: really a sweat so far. Valencia Knowlsasuna in La Liga
Speaker 1: nil nil through twenty minutes? Make it through twenty in minutes?
Speaker 1: What's the under here? Two and a half? No? I
Speaker 1: bet the team total moses soon under under a half
Speaker 1: plus one sixty. But don't take anything I say about
Speaker 1: soccer seriously because I don't know a darn thing about it,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't think anybody was. I don't think
Speaker 1: anybody was. And so we have two guests today, which
Speaker 1: we love because we we go through all of the
Speaker 1: guests we had during the regular season and we only
Speaker 1: want the best for the playoffs. So we have to
Speaker 1: today from Canada, and he will tell us from exactly
Speaker 1: wearing Canada, because I can't remember what he already told me.
Speaker 1: They are snowed in from the Simple Handicap podcast, which
Speaker 1: is just a phenomenal podcast. Is Adam churn Off, How
Speaker 1: you doing? Adam doing well? And it is Southern Alberta
Speaker 1: And snowed in is an understatement which snow are we talking?
Speaker 1: It's it's a good amount of snow, but it's that
Speaker 1: kind of sort of like melted for a few days
Speaker 1: and then froze over. So it's like a combination of
Speaker 1: like the really hard ice, but it's the type of
Speaker 1: ice where you slip, it's like jagged enough that it'll
Speaker 1: it'll it'll leave you on the injured reserved US for
Speaker 1: a week or two. So you can't really leave the
Speaker 1: house to to uh liberally no, and if you do,
Speaker 1: you gotta kind of hunt down the sidewalks, but it's
Speaker 1: kind of hit on miss and on which ones will
Speaker 1: be clear and stuff. But it's just a giant mess
Speaker 1: right now. Wow, Southern Alberta just for those of us
Speaker 1: ridiculous Americans who don't know Canadian geography, Like, how many
Speaker 1: miles away from Edmonton, Alberta? Is that about two and
Speaker 1: a half hours south of Edmonton, about ten minutes outside
Speaker 1: of Calgary, so a few hours north of If you
Speaker 1: go to the northernmost point in Montana and then drive
Speaker 1: for about four hours, you'll kind of get to where
Speaker 1: I am. Wow. All right, now, I know you're you're
Speaker 1: watching while Todd is watching Loliga, You're watching lpg A
Speaker 1: golf and can you stay there? Well? And the reason
Speaker 1: is a good one though, Yeah, because the PGA in
Speaker 1: Januine February they do these ridiculous multiple course events and
Speaker 1: I just find them in absolute pain to price and
Speaker 1: come up with anything good for matchups because they split
Speaker 1: the early and late waves between the courses and it
Speaker 1: just becomes a headache. So for for the better a
Speaker 1: part of January and February until the PGA gets in
Speaker 1: a regular schedule. I mixed in some euro Tour and LPGA.
Speaker 1: So this morning in Florida. I love it. Here's a
Speaker 1: guy who doesn't hesitate betting on golf. It's my co
Speaker 1: host on Primetime Action on MSG plus. You know when
Speaker 1: we're on MSG plus, it's Matt Brown. How you doing MATEO,
Speaker 1: I'm doing well. I'm doing well. I mean this is uh.
Speaker 1: You know, you and I've talked about it a couple
Speaker 1: of different times. It really doesn't matter who comes out
Speaker 1: on top of either one of these games. Is gonna
Speaker 1: be a super Bowl that I'm gonna be looking forward to.
Speaker 1: We got narratives out the wazoo no matter how it
Speaker 1: ends up. So uh, this is a fun weekend regardless.
Speaker 1: Nothing ever goes in the Wazoo. You ever notice that
Speaker 1: it's all about out there? Wo Let's start with it.
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, Green Bay. When we talk about these, we'll
Speaker 1: talk about stuff that happened last week as well. Pardon me,
Speaker 1: I'm emotional. Green Bay is a Green Bay right now
Speaker 1: as we do this, and we're doing this again on
Speaker 1: Thursday morning. Let me have my internet. But Green Bay
Speaker 1: is a three let's call it extra juice three point favorite.
Speaker 1: With extra Juice, there are three and a half but
Speaker 1: let's call it minus three minus one five is consensus
Speaker 1: total fifty one and a half. Tampa Bay is here
Speaker 1: by virtue of their plus four in turnover win driven
Speaker 1: win over the New Orleans Saints at New Orleans last week.
Speaker 1: Thirty to twenty. Three of those four turnovers that the
Speaker 1: Saints committed led directly to scores touchdowns that is by
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers. The fourth actually just ended the game, so
Speaker 1: they didn't get a chance to capitalize on that one.
Speaker 1: But that was really the story of the game in
Speaker 1: Green Bay. Is here they're thirty two to eighteen win
Speaker 1: over the Rams, covering in the process, um really maybe
Speaker 1: just to simplify the better football team, and the Rams
Speaker 1: were diminished. Aaron Donald was not his true self. That
Speaker 1: was obviously huge in that game. The Cooper Cup absence,
Speaker 1: which we learned of officially ninety minutes before that game,
Speaker 1: that was huge. That moved the line from six and
Speaker 1: a half to seven right before game time. So that's
Speaker 1: what we have here, Tampa Bay at Green Bay, as
Speaker 1: Chris Bourman used to call it, the Bay of pay
Speaker 1: Green Bay three point favorites with extra juice fifty one
Speaker 1: and a half, Adam, because you have the most snow.
Speaker 1: We start with you, how do you see this? So
Speaker 1: there are a lot of parallels, I think between both
Speaker 1: of these games, because each of the championship games have
Speaker 1: a pretty clear anchor to the matchup of the two
Speaker 1: teams playing earlier in the season that I think a
Speaker 1: lot of people have a reference point. And then there's
Speaker 1: also what we saw last in both of these games
Speaker 1: last weekend with all four of the teams, and so,
Speaker 1: like you mentioned, the Buccaneers obviously benefited from a lot
Speaker 1: of turnovers um but like I look at that game
Speaker 1: and I was holding a Buck's money line ticket, and
Speaker 1: when they were down twenty thirteen and the Saints were
Speaker 1: driving across midfield late in the third quarter, I thought
Speaker 1: I was dead because up to that point, like Brady
Speaker 1: was not moving to football. Their third down play calling
Speaker 1: was bizarre, and like it was the Saints that were
Speaker 1: really clicking. They were across midfields forty five and then
Speaker 1: the fumble happens, and from that point on the game
Speaker 1: entirely turned around. And so I could those turnovers led
Speaker 1: to points and the Buccaneers ultimately end up getting that win.
Speaker 1: But I think somewhat sort of overshadowed in this is
Speaker 1: the last two games in the playoffs, like the Buccaneers,
Speaker 1: as you well know, against Washington that was Heineke's first
Speaker 1: ever start, and like there were wide receivers running wide
Speaker 1: open all game long against this Buccaneer secondary, and it's
Speaker 1: a Buccaneer secondary that in the second half of the
Speaker 1: season really regrets. Defensively, for the first half of the season,
Speaker 1: they were top eight in both pass and rush defensive
Speaker 1: success rate down the stretch. In the second half of
Speaker 1: the season, including the playoffs, all the way down to
Speaker 1: seventeenth against the past and against the rush, which is
Speaker 1: a significant step back. And I can't help but feel
Speaker 1: the Packers offense, as great as it has been all season,
Speaker 1: is still like a little bit under priced, Like we've
Speaker 1: seen the market move against him now for a couple
Speaker 1: of consecutive weeks. And I don't know if that's like
Speaker 1: part of the hesitancy that we've sort of learned from
Speaker 1: Green Bay the last few seasons, especially last year, where
Speaker 1: they were that team in the playoffs that had all
Speaker 1: the one score victories. They had everybody looking for reasons
Speaker 1: to ultimately oppose them. And now we're sort of in
Speaker 1: a spot where they may be treated the same. But
Speaker 1: to me, it's a team that's done everything as well
Speaker 1: as you can expect from a team. And Gil, you
Speaker 1: had Alan on your show to talk college basketball like
Speaker 1: for the first time, like two years ago, and I
Speaker 1: was listening to and something that he said that has
Speaker 1: always sort of stuck with me is how we evaluate
Speaker 1: teams who get out to big leads early versus teams
Speaker 1: that end up winning and have results going their way
Speaker 1: because of things that happened late. And he was making
Speaker 1: the case that the team that gets out to a
Speaker 1: lead early tends to be more valuable in the better
Speaker 1: team than teams that are winning games but doing so
Speaker 1: in tight contests are coming from behind late. The Packers
Speaker 1: this season, in all but one game, have got out
Speaker 1: to a double digit lead at some point. In fourteen
Speaker 1: of the seventeen games it had a double digit lead
Speaker 1: in the first half or after the first drive in
Speaker 1: the third quarter. And so like, it's a team that
Speaker 1: has relied on the script with La fleur a ton
Speaker 1: since he's been the head coach, and they're extremely good
Speaker 1: at executing it. And I look at the Buccaneers with bowls,
Speaker 1: they're super predictable in their game planning, and that's why
Speaker 1: their bottom eight in the league for first half points
Speaker 1: allowed and first half yards per played allowed. So it's
Speaker 1: a spot where I think the Packers have seen them before.
Speaker 1: They got out to a double digit lead despite losing
Speaker 1: by in that first matchup. I think the Packers get
Speaker 1: out to an early lead. It's road game number three
Speaker 1: in a row for the Bucks on the road, and
Speaker 1: I think that the Packers ultimately hold on to that
Speaker 1: and the reluctance of the back door I don't think
Speaker 1: is necessarily here, despite how good Brady and the Bucks
Speaker 1: offense may seem, because I think that they have more
Speaker 1: issues than we're sort of being led on to be.
Speaker 1: So I'm pretty happy here to take the Packers at
Speaker 1: minus three where that number came down to, and I
Speaker 1: would be happy to take them at three and a
Speaker 1: half even money if you can get that this morning.
Speaker 1: Are you also doing a first half bet based on
Speaker 1: what you were just saying at him? Yeah, they're like
Speaker 1: two and a half right now, so anything less than three,
Speaker 1: I think it's worthwhile. And if you're getting them in
Speaker 1: the first quarter to it's certainly worth to look as well.
Speaker 1: But I think how however you want to play it.
Speaker 1: If you want to double it up between the first
Speaker 1: half in the full game, or you want to play
Speaker 1: just the first half. Um, either ways, more than fine.
Speaker 1: But I'm happy to have both in the accounts. I
Speaker 1: am doing both of those things myself. By the way,
Speaker 1: I just want to thank you for for your recollection
Speaker 1: of that Alan Boston interview and only remembering that part
Speaker 1: of it because I think it went off the rails
Speaker 1: a couple of times, if not, um if not four
Speaker 1: times on that particular episode. Always love having him on,
Speaker 1: but he does either their nuggets like that that definitely
Speaker 1: stick in one's brain. Matt Brown, uh co host a
Speaker 1: prime time Action on MSG Plus, who joined us really
Speaker 1: early in this football season. Your thoughts on Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: Green Bay, Sir? Yeah, I mean, like Adam said, I mean,
Speaker 1: we do have the games in week six to go
Speaker 1: and look back, and you know, I'm sure everybody here's
Speaker 1: has gone back and look at those and you know,
Speaker 1: you look at the individual statistics of these you know,
Speaker 1: four awesome quarterbacks in four of the five top rated
Speaker 1: quarterbacks according to Pro Football Focus on the whole season,
Speaker 1: and here we are at the end of the year,
Speaker 1: and four of those five are still alive here, and
Speaker 1: you know it basically was all four quarterbacks the worst
Speaker 1: statistical output essentially the entire season. Rodgers sixteen of thirty
Speaker 1: five hundred and sixty, no touchdowns, two interceptions, and and
Speaker 1: one of the things that when you really dig into
Speaker 1: that was the fact that he was sacked four times
Speaker 1: in that game. He was hit thirteen times in that game.
Speaker 1: They blitzed him on twenty one of his dropbacks, and
Speaker 1: that was the real difference maker here. Now, what we
Speaker 1: have to try to decide is that was that just
Speaker 1: a complete and utter operation that Rogers was bothered so
Speaker 1: much by all of that pressure because he is actually
Speaker 1: you know, you look at this Bucks defense. They're gonna
Speaker 1: blitz again. They blitz forty you know, forty two overt
Speaker 1: of the time, right, so they're they're going to come
Speaker 1: after him yet again. But you look at Rogers and
Speaker 1: he is actually one of the very best guys against
Speaker 1: the blitz. There is, I mean an eight seven PF
Speaker 1: grade against the bliss that was third best in the
Speaker 1: NFL over the course of the season, fifth best passer
Speaker 1: rating against the blitz on the season as well. So
Speaker 1: I think a lot of this is gonna come down to,
Speaker 1: is that was that what we saw in week six,
Speaker 1: And I tend to believe it was a little bit
Speaker 1: of an aberration that, you know, him having such a
Speaker 1: horrible game against the pressure, because again, his his career
Speaker 1: and this season has proven that he can handle the pressure,
Speaker 1: that he can handle the blitz, that he's going to
Speaker 1: be able to be okay in this And then you
Speaker 1: kind of look back at the other thing and Brady
Speaker 1: unspectacularly goes for one six in that one, but he
Speaker 1: was not sacked. He was only hit four times in
Speaker 1: that game. And we know Brady can't run out of
Speaker 1: site in half an hour. But the thing is, if
Speaker 1: you give him time, he's still a good quarterback, one
Speaker 1: of the very best on the season, and with additional
Speaker 1: weapons in this one as well, a guy named Antonio
Speaker 1: Brown is also on this team. Now, um, I think
Speaker 1: it's gonna be difficult for them to get shut down
Speaker 1: in this game. I think the other thing that we
Speaker 1: might see a little bit early which will be really
Speaker 1: out of the ordinary for this Bucks team. But you know,
Speaker 1: one of the things I do think we might see
Speaker 1: a little bit of the run game a little bit
Speaker 1: more early in this game. So it does make me wonder,
Speaker 1: you know, the Packers run a ton of dime defense,
Speaker 1: and so with that, could we see them try to
Speaker 1: take advantage of that with the two headed running back monster,
Speaker 1: with Ronald Jones back healthy and Leonard for Nette being
Speaker 1: able to uh to to you know, really kind of
Speaker 1: come on here towards the end of the season for
Speaker 1: this team. So do they try to take advantage of
Speaker 1: that dime coverage and run the ball a little bit
Speaker 1: more early and and and that's one of the things
Speaker 1: I'll be looking at early as well to kind of
Speaker 1: see if there's some in game opportunities with that as well.
Speaker 1: But I mean, you know, into the day, I see
Speaker 1: this as a very very very tight game. If you're
Speaker 1: gonna give me, you know, if you're gonna give me
Speaker 1: a hook on this game, um, I'm gonna take it.
Speaker 1: With the bucks. I like three and a half when
Speaker 1: it was at four. As you know, Gil, I thought
Speaker 1: I had a four in my account. I didn't swoop
Speaker 1: back in and and take it. I did have a bucks.
Speaker 1: I do have bucks up to ten uh in a
Speaker 1: teaser with the with the bills as well, So um,
Speaker 1: I like that as well in this one. And you know,
Speaker 1: from just another thing, you know, I met a lot
Speaker 1: of props from a prop betting standpoint here, if you
Speaker 1: do think that this is a if you do think
Speaker 1: that this is a very efficient Packers offensive performance in
Speaker 1: this game, the rushing total for Aaron Rodgers is thirteen
Speaker 1: and a half or fourteen and a half depending on
Speaker 1: which book that you look at out there. He only
Speaker 1: got to fourteen yards rushing three different times this season.
Speaker 1: Both of those were in games where the it was
Speaker 1: super super tightly contested. And you know, Aaron Rodgers is
Speaker 1: that type of guy. If he's gotta go get it,
Speaker 1: he'll go get it. But outside of that, he only
Speaker 1: made it to fourteen yards three different times this year. So, um,
Speaker 1: just you know, by the body of work here, there's
Speaker 1: never designed Aaron Rodgers run plays, right, So that's always
Speaker 1: going to be some sort of scramble situation. So I
Speaker 1: have pretty heavy lean to the under on Rogers rushing
Speaker 1: prop as well. Alright, So and and and just to clarify,
Speaker 1: so you have Tampa Bay in a teaser in pocket
Speaker 1: right now? Okay, Um, a couple of things. One Matt
Speaker 1: Lafleur's game plan against the Rams like we should. That
Speaker 1: that was amazing to me that that he was just
Speaker 1: like we are running at these guys. And maybe you
Speaker 1: know when we talk about Coach of the Year candidates
Speaker 1: and and rightfully so McDermott and Stefanski. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: Matt Lafleur never gets any juice because he's got Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 1: So it's you know, it's our knee jerk not to
Speaker 1: give him credit. But I mean that guy's scripts at
Speaker 1: the beginning of the games are great. The the other
Speaker 1: thing is and and I want to you know, when
Speaker 1: you bring up the notion of these two championship games
Speaker 1: and we actually have a prior this year in both
Speaker 1: of these matchups, and we were going through it, and
Speaker 1: you know, we have a week to talk about these
Speaker 1: two games, so and all the different media we do,
Speaker 1: we we have to remember what we have and have
Speaker 1: not said. But but here on the on the podcast,
Speaker 1: we haven't said it. I think we all agree like
Speaker 1: those games don't mean a whole lot to these handicaps.
Speaker 1: Maybe they do. We'll get to Kansas City Buffalo next,
Speaker 1: but when we're going back the Green Bay Tampa Bay game,
Speaker 1: these were both week six, Like I think most people
Speaker 1: remember that because the Packers were up tending. Nothing was
Speaker 1: the pick six, then subsequent to it was almost another
Speaker 1: pick says, they took it to the two. Next thing
Speaker 1: you knew, it was thirteen to tend and then thirty
Speaker 1: eight to ten. It was the weirdest game, but that
Speaker 1: Buffalo Kansas City game. And I figured this out on
Speaker 1: eras Jason and I were going through this on a
Speaker 1: Numbers game. It was that postponed game because the Bills
Speaker 1: had a had a game with the Titans pushed back
Speaker 1: to Tuesday. Remember that was when the NFL was postponing
Speaker 1: games and the Titans had the outbreak. So because the
Speaker 1: Bills had to play on Tuesday, that previously scheduled Bills
Speaker 1: Chiefs game from two days later on a Thursday got
Speaker 1: pushed to the early game Monday, and it was like
Speaker 1: two o'clock Pacific. I remember not one second of that game,
Speaker 1: which is really interesting because you remember the whole game actually,
Speaker 1: and I have a whole thing about it, do you. Yes,
Speaker 1: Todd Wish and everybody was, okay, Todd, give us Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay Green Bay first before we do all that. Um
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, Green Bay. I think I agree with Matt.
Speaker 1: I think the first game was an a ration. The
Speaker 1: Packers were doing the Packers thing up ten nothing like
Speaker 1: you just said. The two picks in the game just
Speaker 1: turned very radically and weird. The thing I like the
Speaker 1: most in this game actually is the team total over
Speaker 1: twenty seven and a half for the Packers, because if
Speaker 1: Taylor Heineke um of uh Washington football fame can put
Speaker 1: up twenty three on your defense, and if Daniel Jones
Speaker 1: can put up points on your defense, and even Drew
Speaker 1: Brees was gonna be putting up points on your defense
Speaker 1: with no arm I think, um, there's no reason why
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers can't get the twenty seven and a half.
Speaker 1: So I like the team total over and and if
Speaker 1: you don't have access to team totals, I would probably
Speaker 1: take the game over as well, because I don't see
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers stopping this Packer offense. I mean, they just
Speaker 1: made the Rams look, you know, mediocre, and I don't
Speaker 1: see how they're not going to a Buccaneers defense, which
Speaker 1: I think is maybe slightly above average. If that, I
Speaker 1: mean that was really a gift game. Let's be honest.
Speaker 1: I had the Bucking is plus three, and as Adam
Speaker 1: was talking about, as they're going down the field up
Speaker 1: twenty to thirteen, I'm like, okay, that's a loser. And
Speaker 1: then they fumble given the touchdown and get the other touchdown.
Speaker 1: I was, and then I took when it got to twenty,
Speaker 1: I took Saints the other way, going for the middle
Speaker 1: because I didn't trust the Buccaneers. So you know, I
Speaker 1: don't trust the Buccaneers. I will say this, the Packers
Speaker 1: let Jared goth go up and down the field. The
Speaker 1: Packers have really not been such a great defensive team
Speaker 1: either this year. They just get out to these huge
Speaker 1: leads because their offense never doesn't score. So to me,
Speaker 1: I like the Packers team total over. But I also
Speaker 1: like the game over because I gotta think that the
Speaker 1: Packers defense, you know, it's gonna give up some points.
Speaker 1: So I could easily see this being like thirty four
Speaker 1: twenty one or thirty five twenty four, something like that.
Speaker 1: Um especially a lot of Packers games, they get up
Speaker 1: way ahead and then they start giving you back door
Speaker 1: touchdowns all day long. If you remember the Bears game,
Speaker 1: they were a bazillion and they gave up back door
Speaker 1: touchdowns every Lion's game is like that. But I definitely
Speaker 1: think the over is worth a look, uh in this
Speaker 1: game and and team total Packers over is the other thing.
Speaker 1: Packers do have moments, right, we're talking about that late.
Speaker 1: I don't know if it was Week fifteen or sixteen,
Speaker 1: they played Carolina. They were way up at the half
Speaker 1: and then they kind of just stopped playing football. And
Speaker 1: Carolina had a great to do in every game. They
Speaker 1: do it in every game. If you look at their
Speaker 1: entire schedule that it's like Adam was saying, they're up
Speaker 1: huge and then they just go to sleep and give
Speaker 1: back toor touchdowns like crazy. Um. The other thing I
Speaker 1: think that that's unique about this is just this this
Speaker 1: offense from the buck does present at least a unique
Speaker 1: kind of look for any defense with three I think
Speaker 1: unquestioned you could say stud receivers, and then you also
Speaker 1: have the kind of the duel tight end threat there
Speaker 1: in Brighton Gronk. I mean, Gronk had one of his
Speaker 1: best games of the season against this Packers team, had
Speaker 1: seventy eight yards. He had seventy eight of bradies hundred
Speaker 1: sixty six passing yards in the first game. Now, again,
Speaker 1: was that in abiration this when you look at how
Speaker 1: the Packers have really fared against linebacker, I mean, have
Speaker 1: fared against tight ends over the course of the sea
Speaker 1: and they've actually done very very well. But one of
Speaker 1: the things that the Bucks did is they were lining
Speaker 1: Gronk up out wide like he was going up against
Speaker 1: corners in that game and had a touchdown against the
Speaker 1: corner in that game as well, And so given them
Speaker 1: kind of different looks with all of that. Now you
Speaker 1: add in Antonio Brown into the fold and Gire Alexander,
Speaker 1: the stud of all studs when it comes to corners, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, over the last couple of seasons, can only
Speaker 1: cover one of those guys, right, And so that's why
Speaker 1: another thing that's Packers defense that has been very very
Speaker 1: well since week thirteen is they've really did start to
Speaker 1: kind of turn things around. Eighth in you know, eighth
Speaker 1: in yards per attempt against their fifth and passer rating
Speaker 1: against uh second in ProFootball Focus coverage grade since week
Speaker 1: thirteen as well. But Jaire Alexander, again, most teams don't
Speaker 1: have two legitimate options in the past game, and certainly
Speaker 1: don't have three legitimate options in the past game as well,
Speaker 1: and so I do think that this Buck's offense presents
Speaker 1: at least a unique kind of circumstance for the Packers
Speaker 1: defense as well. It's an interesting point. One last thing
Speaker 1: I'd had to the total too, so to jump in
Speaker 1: would be like last week the Saints and Bucks, Like
Speaker 1: there was very sharp money over forty eight and a half,
Speaker 1: over forty nine, over forty nine and a half that
Speaker 1: got up to fifty three and a half, so like
Speaker 1: it was a significant movement for any playoff game, even
Speaker 1: a regular season game at that and it fell right
Speaker 1: in the middle. So a lot of people were very
Speaker 1: happy about that. But like, we're looking at a game
Speaker 1: this week that's a point and a half above an
Speaker 1: average total for the season, and it's two point shy
Speaker 1: of where that game closed. And like I would just
Speaker 1: simply look at these teams and say, do the Saints
Speaker 1: have a better defense than the Green Bay Packers? And
Speaker 1: I think the answer probably would lean towards yes. And
Speaker 1: then I would say, do the Packers have a better
Speaker 1: The Packers have a better offense then the Saints, And
Speaker 1: I don't think anybody is going to dispute that, And
Speaker 1: so you're you're kind of getting the counterpart to that
Speaker 1: would be, like does it look different when it's played
Speaker 1: outside versus being played inside of the dome, But like
Speaker 1: you're getting a better offer with a lesser defense in
Speaker 1: a game that's now priced a little bit shorter coming
Speaker 1: off the back of a move that was extremely significant
Speaker 1: a week ago. Like I would agree that this numbers
Speaker 1: maybe just a little bit light on the toll. Todd
Speaker 1: got a little upset just now, also soon to put
Speaker 1: the biscuit in the basket. I just wanted to say
Speaker 1: one other thing as I'm getting upset. Camp Acres ran
Speaker 1: eighteen carries for ninety yards, and I don't care what
Speaker 1: the stats are, because you know the stats in NFL
Speaker 1: LIE but there was holes, gigantic holes for him against
Speaker 1: the Green Bay defense. So again that's another reason why
Speaker 1: if Tampa Bay is able to run and take some
Speaker 1: pressure off Brady, I just think the overhears is just
Speaker 1: the best play in my opinion. I just one last
Speaker 1: thing about this. I you know, Adam was saying how
Speaker 1: something that Alan Boston said lingered, something like Las Vegas
Speaker 1: Chris said last week lingered in my head, And I'm
Speaker 1: not sure if he said it on the podcast or afterwards,
Speaker 1: but he was saying, one of his you know, hallmarks
Speaker 1: of success in these contests in the NFL, UH this
Speaker 1: year and in past years, is having his own UH
Speaker 1: is relying on other people to use the rankings of
Speaker 1: of certain sites and to you know, he has his
Speaker 1: own and obviously to exploit those differences. In the Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay Buccaneers are the biggest example of that. He said,
Speaker 1: this year we're a site like Football Outsiders, and we
Speaker 1: love Aaron shots and Aaron comes on the show all
Speaker 1: the time. But I think there's no question that most people,
Speaker 1: most people, maybe not all people, most people think that
Speaker 1: perhaps they've overrated the Buccaneers all year in terms of
Speaker 1: d v o A as a top four team, UH
Speaker 1: for most of the season, with some fluctuation, but they
Speaker 1: were up there, like well above what most people would
Speaker 1: have them. And Chris was saying, he goes, you know,
Speaker 1: I've kind of used that to my advantage. Um, look
Speaker 1: all the all the reasons stated. Obviously, Brady is Brady,
Speaker 1: and UH, they've got weapons, and that defense came to
Speaker 1: play last week. But I'm not sure there was anything
Speaker 1: I saw last week because of that plus four turnover
Speaker 1: ratio that Bucks the Las Vegas Chris sentiment. That's somehow
Speaker 1: that over rating by uh by Football Outsiders was in
Speaker 1: any way, um in any way uh you know, mitigated,
Speaker 1: you know, because it was just an aberrational kind of
Speaker 1: game with those turnovers. So it's an interesting thing and
Speaker 1: it just lingers in my head. But anyway, you put
Speaker 1: all that in the wash. We have some overs, we
Speaker 1: have some Tampa Bay teasers, we got some Green Bay sentiment.
Speaker 1: Go with what you will there. I'm on a Green
Speaker 1: Bay first, Yes, I'm sorry and and Gil like you know.
Speaker 1: The only thing about that that d b o A
Speaker 1: is very high on the on the Bucks team, but
Speaker 1: it is corroborated about Pro Football Focus as well. I
Speaker 1: get you know, another another site that we I think
Speaker 1: respect as far as what they do over there. I
Speaker 1: mean number six overall offense, numbers two pass offense, number
Speaker 1: eleven rush offense on the defensive side, the number five
Speaker 1: overall defense, number four against the past, number eleven against
Speaker 1: the rush. So while the numbers are in the rankings
Speaker 1: are high on d B o A, it is it's
Speaker 1: also backed up by you know, Pro Football Focus and
Speaker 1: what they do as well. Yeah, it's a great I agree,
Speaker 1: with Tampa Bay being, you know, that high on offense,
Speaker 1: but they're not. You really think they're that high on defense?
Speaker 1: Defense there. I mean you look at their games, they
Speaker 1: don't look you know, much better than a touch better
Speaker 1: than average. I mean Taylor Heineck was just making them
Speaker 1: look silly. I mean it was ridiculous. How wide open.
Speaker 1: I mean, that's a that's a that's a Washington deef offense.
Speaker 1: That is literally me and you could play quarterback better
Speaker 1: than some of those guys. It's unbelievable. You look at
Speaker 1: the Atlanta game. Atlanta moves up and down against them,
Speaker 1: Minnesota moved on in Kansas City obviously move against everybody.
Speaker 1: But I mean who did they really play? New Orleans
Speaker 1: scored a ton on them. Who who are they playing
Speaker 1: that they're so great on defense? I I don't see it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean the Taylor Heinekey thing. They play that game
Speaker 1: about Devin White, I think that's a fairly big downgrade
Speaker 1: for a rushing quarterback like Heineke. I mean, Devon White
Speaker 1: runs a you know, four or five five and two
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty five pounds and create some havoc for
Speaker 1: for a guy trying to run for all those trying
Speaker 1: to run for all those yards and things like that. So, um,
Speaker 1: I take that a little bit with with a great assault.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, look, they're they're the number one
Speaker 1: team against the run all year long. They only give
Speaker 1: up eighty one yards a game on the ground, and
Speaker 1: so you know, some of these teams just have to
Speaker 1: go to the past. And if you're throwing a ton,
Speaker 1: you're naturally are going to move the ball, you know
Speaker 1: a little bit better and stuff like that. How efficient
Speaker 1: is it when you become a one dimensional team? That's
Speaker 1: up for debate, But um, you know something to consider
Speaker 1: from from the defensive side as well. There for the
Speaker 1: Bucks to answer your question about d v O A.
Speaker 1: And for the Bucks specifically though, was that they were
Speaker 1: second offensively if I'm not mistaken six defensively you know
Speaker 1: where they suck with special teams, which is the most
Speaker 1: devolnable thing from a year to year. They were twenty eight,
Speaker 1: but you know where the Packers were, So it kind
Speaker 1: of just negates itself. But that's that's when they gave
Speaker 1: up two big punt returns to one of them that
Speaker 1: counted against the dude. As you guys were talking about
Speaker 1: your your Tampa Bay positions. You know, I had New
Speaker 1: Orleans basically in money line situations, and that Jared Cook fumble.
Speaker 1: Like every time you guys said, oh, we thought we
Speaker 1: were dead, it's like I'm there was the opposite of that,
Speaker 1: I'm just dying. Just they it's him Deonte Harris. They
Speaker 1: only came up with three points off both of those
Speaker 1: part returns, the second negated by a penalty. But it's
Speaker 1: just like uh, brutal. Okay, let's move to the second game,
Speaker 1: Kansas City and Buffalo. Kansas City is favored by three. Uh,
Speaker 1: the total is a little higher here fifty four. We
Speaker 1: still don't know officially, unless something happened to the first
Speaker 1: part of this podcast. We still don't know officially if
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes is playing. Um, Patrick Mahomes, who obviously had
Speaker 1: a a banged up toe. Let's go with banged up
Speaker 1: as the medical explanation of this, prior to Andy Reid
Speaker 1: calling a, Hey, you know the guy we have that
Speaker 1: cheat code, the greatest player in the NFL with the
Speaker 1: banging up toe. Let's have him roll out here to
Speaker 1: the right and he uh, he got tackled, uh and
Speaker 1: uh we never saw him again. He was Woozy on
Speaker 1: his way up. He didn't come back the rest of
Speaker 1: the game, and the Chiefs held on for seventeen victory
Speaker 1: over the Browns. So, um, we don't know if it's
Speaker 1: Mahomes yet. The line where it is assumed is that
Speaker 1: we will see Mahomes. Um but again not official. And
Speaker 1: it's again Buffalo coming off a win against Baltimore in
Speaker 1: which really they relied on a pick six and then
Speaker 1: a Lamar Jackson concussion two plays later which knocked him
Speaker 1: out of the game. The pick six change changed a
Speaker 1: ten to three game, which at the worst for Baltimore
Speaker 1: should have been ten to six. Instead, Tarren Johnson a
Speaker 1: hundred and one yards of the house great played by
Speaker 1: Dradavious White getting in front of Lamar Jackson on the
Speaker 1: run back, and then Tyler Huntley couldn't get the Ravens
Speaker 1: quite in the end zone, j K. Dobbins dropped the ball.
Speaker 1: So the seventeen two three that's how Buffalo gets to
Speaker 1: its first DNFC championship since nineteen twenty seven years. Kansas
Speaker 1: City gets there not only overcoming the Mahomes injury, but
Speaker 1: Kevin Stefanski did not have his greatest day ever as
Speaker 1: coach made a lot of mistakes, went for one down
Speaker 1: nineteen to nine instead of going for two, challenged a
Speaker 1: Tyree Hill catch from Chad Henny that shouldn't have been challenged,
Speaker 1: lost his first time out of the three. They ended
Speaker 1: up having to use a second time out when they
Speaker 1: got too close to the play cock with five minutes
Speaker 1: plus left. Uh. And so timeouts ended up being the
Speaker 1: story of that game, and then the final sequence. By
Speaker 1: the way, there was a Shard Schard Higgins who could
Speaker 1: forget at the end of the first half with the
Speaker 1: with the with the line minus six and a half
Speaker 1: in the first half, it's sixteen to six, sixteen to three.
Speaker 1: Pardon me, he's going to the house. Uh. Sorenson gets
Speaker 1: there and knocks the ball out, fumbles through the end zone.
Speaker 1: We can debate that. I think it's the strangest rule
Speaker 1: in sports, the dumbest rule. Todd has different thoughts that rule.
Speaker 1: It's the first, makes no sense. There is no better
Speaker 1: rule in sports. It's the best rule. Uh. So that happened,
Speaker 1: and then, of course the chace, so we got to
Speaker 1: debate that for a second. But then the Chad Henny
Speaker 1: sequence at the end. I don't care what anybody says
Speaker 1: we the fourth down play. Fine, you decided to gamble
Speaker 1: high percentage play Chad Handy to Tyree Hill. They got
Speaker 1: it done. Now, if it's incomplete, we're talking about a
Speaker 1: whole different thing, perhaps narrative wise, but it's not the
Speaker 1: fourth down play. I want to talk about second down.
Speaker 1: In third down, second down north of the two minute warning,
Speaker 1: they have no time ounds left. Instead of just running
Speaker 1: and knocking it down to the second to the two
Speaker 1: minute warning, Chad Henny Is drops back to pass. He
Speaker 1: gets bailed out by a sack. Third down again, instead
Speaker 1: of just running it in and you know, punting with
Speaker 1: like one fifteen left, Henny gets flushed out of the pocket,
Speaker 1: runs thirteen yards on a third and fourteen, which allows
Speaker 1: them to go for it on fourth down. Um, it's
Speaker 1: amazing to me that some folks during the week are like,
Speaker 1: oh yeah, but you know, he knew if he was
Speaker 1: flushing out of the pocket he had to run on
Speaker 1: the second now play, he knew he should take a sack.
Speaker 1: People gotta stop with this. If that was Anthony Lynn,
Speaker 1: we would be destroying Andy Reid. Excuse me, Anthony Lynn,
Speaker 1: we would be destroying him. Anthony Lynn to me, excuse me,
Speaker 1: Andy Reid, it seems to me we forgot very quickly.
Speaker 1: We forgot that before he had to Patrick Mahomes, he
Speaker 1: was a clock management nightmare. Well, the minute he didn't
Speaker 1: have Patrick Mahomes again, this happened, and so the chiefs
Speaker 1: overcame all that. So he was both a lunatic and
Speaker 1: a hero the end. To me, Um, but they got by?
Speaker 1: Would you say, but they got by? Go ahead, I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: I'm done. Just before we get into the whole analysis
Speaker 1: of this game. Um, right now, you do you were saying,
Speaker 1: as you were saying, the line was minus three assuming Homes,
Speaker 1: is it really fully assuming the Homes, Because if we
Speaker 1: said right now, probably not fully Mahomes is playing, I
Speaker 1: think it would be a little higher. I agree, it'll
Speaker 1: go to three and a half. It'll go to three
Speaker 1: and a half. Yeahs playing than Mahomes not playing. I
Speaker 1: think that's definitely on that side. But is it's I'm
Speaker 1: just making the point. It's not all the way there.
Speaker 1: I think we agree. Yeah. Anyway, before we get into
Speaker 1: Buffalo at Kansas City again, three points in fifty four
Speaker 1: the total? Was there anything I say that you vehemently
Speaker 1: disagree with First of all, let's do the let's do
Speaker 1: the Richard Higgins fumble through the end zone. Yes, this
Speaker 1: is the stupidest ruling sports todd because there is no
Speaker 1: football logic to it. I agree with that part. Okay,
Speaker 1: so what's your solution. Here's my point. I agree with you.
Speaker 1: It doesn't make sense if you're going to be consistent, like,
Speaker 1: you know, you fumble on the twenty six that goes
Speaker 1: out of bound, you get it at the twenty six.
Speaker 1: You fumble on the thirteen, you get it the thirteen. Here.
Speaker 1: If you fumble with the one, you should get it
Speaker 1: at the one. That's the consistent position. I agree with that.
Speaker 1: The reason I love the rule is the NFL is
Speaker 1: already too offensive a game. It's offense, offense, offense. It's
Speaker 1: almost impossible to stop any good team in the NFL.
Speaker 1: So I love the fact that guys at the three
Speaker 1: yard line have to have in the back of their
Speaker 1: mind be the f careful when you reach for the
Speaker 1: goal line, because if you fumble this ball through the
Speaker 1: ends and we're gonna lose it, which means that there's
Speaker 1: got to be a couple of them were smart enough
Speaker 1: to go you know, what I'm not reaching it because
Speaker 1: it's too dangerous and in a game that is so
Speaker 1: offensive already, and I like a little defense sprinkled into
Speaker 1: my ball games. I like the fact that there's a
Speaker 1: little something there that the defense gets. Finally, something for
Speaker 1: the defense. Everything in the NFL is offense, offense, offense.
Speaker 1: Oh you sniffed on the quarterback past you know, roughing
Speaker 1: the pastor fifteen passing inference? Oh you touch that guy,
Speaker 1: don't past inference. Everything is offense, offense, offense, something for
Speaker 1: the defense, got damn it? And then the guy who
Speaker 1: doesn't extend the ball gets hammered by us the next
Speaker 1: day because he didn't put in the effort to try
Speaker 1: and score a touchdown. And he gives you that, He
Speaker 1: gives you the exact explanation that you just said, because
Speaker 1: you said he's gonna come out and say I didn't
Speaker 1: want to risk bumboat to the end zone. And you
Speaker 1: know what you say, Todd, You say, dammit, you idiot,
Speaker 1: you rate for the end zone and whatever, like I
Speaker 1: needed that touchdown, like you're gonna everybody's complaining about his
Speaker 1: effort at that point, like it's it's a ten yard penalty,
Speaker 1: is what it is you. You you have to take
Speaker 1: the ball back to the ten yard line, and and
Speaker 1: it's totally that's ridiculous. White ten? Why not eight? Why not? Okay? Okay,
Speaker 1: but whatever it is something you know, punitive loss of
Speaker 1: down and you take the ball back to the twenty.
Speaker 1: Whatever the rule is, it should not be changed your
Speaker 1: possession because just if you if you just step back
Speaker 1: from it for a second, just logically speaking, okay, when
Speaker 1: you fumble, okay, but Todd, but hold on, let me
Speaker 1: just make my point if I could, so, if you
Speaker 1: fumble the ball right out of bounds, way you were
Speaker 1: talking matriculating the ball down the field, you stated again
Speaker 1: you get the ball back where you are. What is
Speaker 1: what is just again just stepping back? What is so egregious?
Speaker 1: What is so absolutely horrible? Hold hold on? Hold on,
Speaker 1: hold on? But think about it. It's like that the
Speaker 1: notion that then you would have the audacity to do
Speaker 1: it over the goal line, right, the audacity to try
Speaker 1: to score the football should result in you losing possession.
Speaker 1: Just think of just think about what we're talking about.
Speaker 1: What I agree with you, But you still think you're
Speaker 1: taking this dance, but you're actually serious. He's actually serious, Adam,
Speaker 1: Welcome to the podcast. Is a gil Logically, you're a thousand.
Speaker 1: In fact, logically, should be no penalty. The guy should
Speaker 1: get it at the one yard line, because if you're
Speaker 1: going to be consistent, if you fumble out of bounds,
Speaker 1: it's no big deal. You get it when you fumble
Speaker 1: at the thirty six. You don't get it back at
Speaker 1: the forty six. You get it at the thirty six.
Speaker 1: There's no penalty for fumbling out of bounds. So if
Speaker 1: you fumble out the one yard line, according to your logic,
Speaker 1: and I actually agree with you logically that if you
Speaker 1: fumble out the one yard line you should get it
Speaker 1: at the one yard line. There should be no penalty
Speaker 1: for fumbling into the end zone at all. But if
Speaker 1: you the reason I like it is, as I said,
Speaker 1: it's not a logic thing. It's a little rule, something
Speaker 1: nice for the defense, because they get nothing nice. Nothing
Speaker 1: that ever happens for the defense. Everything. We need more
Speaker 1: points because we need our big crowds to watch the
Speaker 1: NFL game so we can have concerts and halftime with
Speaker 1: Lady Gaga. It's like, come on, you have some goddamn defense.
Speaker 1: I had, you know what else? Is very nice for
Speaker 1: the defense. Is they also get an extra twenty yards
Speaker 1: in addition to that change of possession that they never had, Right,
Speaker 1: they get a touched you back on top of it.
Speaker 1: That's exactly right, Adam. Adam, I would say, you're right,
Speaker 1: they should get into one yard that that is a
Speaker 1: little too far your I agree with you on that
Speaker 1: if I think, but I think that the one is
Speaker 1: a start for sure. Yeah, they're gonna change at least
Speaker 1: part of that. I mean, you're right, that's an extra
Speaker 1: layer to the whole thing. Um. Somebody on Twitter, and
Speaker 1: I apologize because I don't know, I can't remember who
Speaker 1: did it. But he said to me, we're trying to
Speaker 1: think of an equivalent in another sport, right, we like
Speaker 1: took five minutes like what is this? What is this like?
Speaker 1: And and the best he came The best he came
Speaker 1: up with was, imagine it's a baseball game and someone
Speaker 1: hits a shot down the line and it hits the
Speaker 1: foul pole. Not at home, that doesn't go, doesn't go
Speaker 1: you know, in a fair territory, but it hits the
Speaker 1: foul pole. Sorry, buddy, you hit the foul pole. End
Speaker 1: of inning. Other team takes there at bats that the
Speaker 1: closest we could come up with. You know, there is
Speaker 1: one point logically where your thing doesn't fully make sense,
Speaker 1: and this I would like to hear. Here's the only
Speaker 1: thing that doesn't fully make sense. There's a reason guys
Speaker 1: don't stretch the ball from the thirty one to the
Speaker 1: twenty nine because it's too risky to try to stretch
Speaker 1: the ball from the thirty one to twenty nine when
Speaker 1: what are you getting. You're getting two extra yards a
Speaker 1: big deal to drive. You're getting a first down? Though,
Speaker 1: what if you're getting a first down? Okay, So, and
Speaker 1: guys do try to stretch. What you're saying, guys do
Speaker 1: try to stretch the ball. That's true, that's good point. Okay. Look,
Speaker 1: I was just trying to come up with something, a
Speaker 1: shred of something to hang on too for my poor defense.
Speaker 1: And am I wrong about the final sequence with Andy
Speaker 1: Reid that he was both a lunatic a raving lunatic
Speaker 1: on second and third forget fourth down, we can debate.
Speaker 1: That's that's you know, reasonable down on third down. When
Speaker 1: I saw Chad Henny go back to pass, I was like,
Speaker 1: is this for real? Really? Is he really going back
Speaker 1: The only thing I could think is he's telling him
Speaker 1: for Sure to run. But that didn't look like a
Speaker 1: bootleg for Shure to run kind of go back to past.
Speaker 1: That looked like a real go back to past. And
Speaker 1: then he just got lucky that he got flushed out.
Speaker 1: But that was like bizarro world. I was like, is
Speaker 1: he really doing this? Is just crazy? Here's how I know.
Speaker 1: I thought what you said was about how we're only
Speaker 1: mentioning this because the fourth down worked out. I think that,
Speaker 1: to me is the most exhausting part about watching football,
Speaker 1: betting football, then following on Twitter, is it always depends
Speaker 1: on the outcome to how much we're going to criticize
Speaker 1: the coach for making the call. Like if they go
Speaker 1: for it on fourth down or fourth down, it's a
Speaker 1: terrible decision unless it works and then in which case
Speaker 1: it was a terrific decision. There's like so much, so
Speaker 1: much of a push for being aggressive and going for it.
Speaker 1: It's great and we praise everyone when it works, but
Speaker 1: when it doesn't, they just get killed online. So it's
Speaker 1: like a never ending thing. But the only reason we're
Speaker 1: not talking about that second now play call is because
Speaker 1: they got the first down. If it was anything different
Speaker 1: than it just piles up. And we're probably looking at
Speaker 1: other things throughout the game too, but it's that's which
Speaker 1: it's never ending. Yeah, that's why I don't I don't
Speaker 1: focus on the fourth down Pa, because people want to
Speaker 1: talk about that's like, that's not what I'm talking about.
Speaker 1: That's yeah, it's it's it's what to me is the
Speaker 1: unassailable ridiculousness of second and third death and the reason
Speaker 1: that you know, because I heard some people throughout like again, oh,
Speaker 1: he knew that he was supposed to take this sect.
Speaker 1: Oh he knew he's supposed to scrabble. I have Jeff
Speaker 1: Schwartz on the show earlier this week. His brother Mitchell
Speaker 1: plays for the Chiefs, and so you could tell he
Speaker 1: sort of has to navigate these questions a little, or
Speaker 1: at least I'm assuming he does. And he was just
Speaker 1: giggling and laughing because I mean, it's it's really true,
Speaker 1: like if this was another coach. I used Anthony Lynn
Speaker 1: as the poster child, but if this was some other coach,
Speaker 1: I mean, Bill O'Brien could todd. If this was Bill O'Brien,
Speaker 1: we would be murdering him, murdering him but I agree
Speaker 1: with you a thousand percent, and even on the fourth down.
Speaker 1: Even on the fourth down, I still think it's way risk.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's one thing to do with Mahomes, but
Speaker 1: with Chad Henny, that's what is that like an eight
Speaker 1: five percent chance that he makes it? With Chad Henny,
Speaker 1: I would say there's chance, we would. Football people will
Speaker 1: tell you that was a pretty pretty easy. I mean,
Speaker 1: I don't know. I haven't two point three percent, Todd.
Speaker 1: I have no idea what the exact percentages, but whatever
Speaker 1: whatever you put the percentages that you have to take
Speaker 1: it down a little a bit for the fact that
Speaker 1: it's Chad Henny. We just saw the guy throw an
Speaker 1: interception and in the end zone on the drive previous.
Speaker 1: That was about the worst interception I've ever seen in
Speaker 1: any game, let alone a playoff game. So you have
Speaker 1: to be wondering what is going I mean, it's a
Speaker 1: little scary to do that at midfield, and and if
Speaker 1: they punted deep, they have one fifteen to go with
Speaker 1: no time outs. Very difficult to score in that situation. So,
Speaker 1: you know, especially when we talk about Baker Mayfield needs
Speaker 1: play action to you know, to do you know, to
Speaker 1: to be effective and stuff. But yeah, and Stepanski, as
Speaker 1: I said, going for one challenging the Tyreek play, I
Speaker 1: didn't even mention the punt with four three left right.
Speaker 1: That's the most obvious one. The punt four three left
Speaker 1: down five points. They give it up, never see the
Speaker 1: ball again. And then there was a challenge on on
Speaker 1: one drive when they were out down nineteen to ten
Speaker 1: where Mahomes was still in any hit Robinson for a
Speaker 1: first down might have been overturned. They didn't challenge. So
Speaker 1: not not stefancy, like we said, we didn't want a skewer.
Speaker 1: Stefancy can see that a great year, but not his
Speaker 1: best moment either, wasn't There also challenge on Ontarik Hill
Speaker 1: catching the ball. That was what I said before the
Speaker 1: twenty three yarder Tyreek Hill right in front of them.
Speaker 1: They challenged that was they got rid of their first
Speaker 1: time out that way. That was awful. Yes, sorry, Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, as you talked about things that are going on,
Speaker 1: you know while we're while we're doing this, So just
Speaker 1: uh the report out of practice right now, reporters, we're
Speaker 1: at the open portion of the chief's practice. Said Mahomes
Speaker 1: was out there with a helmet on practicing today. Of
Speaker 1: course yesterday they listened him as a full participant and
Speaker 1: then downgraded it too limited. I imagine that was the
Speaker 1: NFL coming in and saying, hey, don't listen to this
Speaker 1: full participant when he's in the freaking concussion protocol like limited,
Speaker 1: Like list him is limited? Like what are you doing?
Speaker 1: Like you know, don't list him as a full participant. Um.
Speaker 1: But he was out there today with helmet on for
Speaker 1: the open portion of Chiefs practice, So that did happen.
Speaker 1: Another thing, The Colts are hiring Nick Sirianni. The I
Speaker 1: mean the the Eagles are hiring Colts offensive coordinator Nick
Speaker 1: Sirianni is their head coach. And what they had home
Speaker 1: to you, gil uh. The Steeler are quote planning to
Speaker 1: sign Dwayne Haskins Steelers on all three of all they
Speaker 1: are they are gonna sign Dwayne Haskets. Wow, in here
Speaker 1: right now, what are you talking about? We don't one
Speaker 1: know Dwayne Haskins on a Pitchburg st like, well, I'd
Speaker 1: rather have that Duck Hodges guy back, give me that
Speaker 1: Duck Hodges Playne Haskets can't even remember the plays, by
Speaker 1: the way, if you do, if you do anything today
Speaker 1: speaking of coach hirings Dan Campbell, who was hired by
Speaker 1: the Detroit Lions Adam, Adam and Manten. I don't know
Speaker 1: if you guys have seen this, but they put out
Speaker 1: there's a twenty Have you seen this, Adam, there's a
Speaker 1: twenty nine? Oh you did already. It's nineteen seconds or
Speaker 1: twenty nine seconds, I can't remember. It's Dan Campbell's opening
Speaker 1: press conference. And he sounds like a knuckle dragging Neanderthal,
Speaker 1: like we're gonna kneecaps, We're gonna be the forceful, We're
Speaker 1: gonna smile at you when you knock us down. And
Speaker 1: I'm thinking to myself, I'm like, the Lions are completely toast,
Speaker 1: Like they just toast on arrival. You thought, I said,
Speaker 1: I'm sure that's the word. You thought. That's right, That's
Speaker 1: exactly what I was gonna say, toast on arrival. Yes, Adam,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, Adam. Go ahead to two things fascinate me
Speaker 1: about all of this is one, like, sometimes like head
Speaker 1: coaches like Cambell, like they just say the most ridiculous
Speaker 1: things and like that is who they are. But like,
Speaker 1: first of all, how do they get hired and let
Speaker 1: alone signed to six years. What did they do in
Speaker 1: the interview to show one side of it and not
Speaker 1: present this side and then think like, Okay, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: flip back or was it the same? And like they
Speaker 1: got by with it, Like I don't know how that happened,
Speaker 1: I think. And then Chris Spielman probably loves this ship, right,
Speaker 1: Oh my god. And the second thing is like, Matt,
Speaker 1: you said they hired Sirianni in Philadelphia, Like, I don't
Speaker 1: know why teams are obsessed with turning above average, too
Speaker 1: great offensive coordinators into head coaches rather than just keeping
Speaker 1: them is above average the great offensive coordinators, Like why
Speaker 1: can't there just be great offensive coordinators who were terrific
Speaker 1: at their job, great defensive coordinators who were great, and
Speaker 1: they just have guys who are head coaches that manage everything,
Speaker 1: work on putting players in the best position to succeed
Speaker 1: and leave the play calling and all the headache to
Speaker 1: all these other guys. Like but like, we're obsessed with
Speaker 1: trying to turn bron day Ball into a head coach
Speaker 1: when he's probably the best oh CE in the game
Speaker 1: this season because of where he sits and how he
Speaker 1: manages it, rather than putting him on the sideline and
Speaker 1: giving him all these duties, Like why can't guys just
Speaker 1: be great offensive coordinators for teams and call the players
Speaker 1: and do such an important role like they like teams
Speaker 1: are just I think forcing it with somebody's head coach hirings,
Speaker 1: I just I don't get it. That's the North Turner effect. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I said this, and I don't, Adam, I don't know
Speaker 1: if there's any way. I don't know how I would
Speaker 1: do this. But if I were an owner who was
Speaker 1: trying to hire a head coach, and I said this
Speaker 1: on prime TIMEE So forgive me for repeating him. Man,
Speaker 1: But it's somehow in the interview, because what do we
Speaker 1: talk about most besides handy Gabet We talk about their
Speaker 1: gaffs in game. But I would try to ascertain somehow
Speaker 1: how a coach would behave in an in game situation, right, Like,
Speaker 1: who's the Sean McDermott, who gets that he's got to
Speaker 1: call that time out right there to get the refs
Speaker 1: to to actually replay this to see if it was
Speaker 1: a catch or not. Who's the Sean m you know,
Speaker 1: who's that guy? Who's the Bill Belichick Versus who's the
Speaker 1: guy that, you know, I just want a guy who
Speaker 1: is a big picture guy. You can delegate all that
Speaker 1: other stuff, but that's what I want more than anything.
Speaker 1: I don't know how i'd figure that out an interview,
Speaker 1: but that, to me is what I value the most
Speaker 1: at this point because that's a differentiator with these guys.
Speaker 1: Dan Campbell's not I'm not hiring that dude. It's like,
Speaker 1: I'll be like, you're you're great, thanks for the interview.
Speaker 1: You know, like my old my old football coach guy said, look,
Speaker 1: we're gonna run the football. We don't care what the
Speaker 1: other guys are doing. We're just know the world and
Speaker 1: just punch him in the moth. Matt, this is this
Speaker 1: is the Dan Campbell interview. We just alright. As far
Speaker 1: as the game, then Buffalo in Kansas City, Adam Europe.
Speaker 1: So I think very similar to the Bucks and Packers
Speaker 1: in that there was obviously that anchoring game that these
Speaker 1: two teams played much more recently. I think that previous
Speaker 1: matchup has a little more like resemblance of what we
Speaker 1: may see compared to the other game in the NFC,
Speaker 1: where I think both the Bucks and Packers are very different. Um,
Speaker 1: I think the Bills and Chiefs very much similar teams
Speaker 1: to what we saw when they played each other. Um,
Speaker 1: not that long ago, but I would say that the
Speaker 1: parallels here stay the same in the sense that the
Speaker 1: Bills through two playoff games, they've allowed thirteen opponent drives
Speaker 1: inside their own thirty yard line. They've allowed twenty seven
Speaker 1: points on those thirteen drives and scored seven of their own,
Speaker 1: so their in net minus twenty on thirteen drives inside
Speaker 1: of their thirty. Offensively, in the first game against the Colts,
Speaker 1: Josh Allen and the Bills are great against the Ravens.
Speaker 1: They struggled the time, but like they're coming into this
Speaker 1: game on an absolute role against the spread. They've covered
Speaker 1: eight nine in a row. Whatever it is, hottest team
Speaker 1: in the NFL the end the season, that's still carrying on,
Speaker 1: and they're just they're getting these timely plays on defense,
Speaker 1: whether it's the stops inside their thirty in their red zone,
Speaker 1: the fourth down stops that they're generating, the turnovers, the
Speaker 1: pick six, whatever it is, Like, like how long does
Speaker 1: this ultimately go on for before a team makes them pay?
Speaker 1: And I look at the Chiefs, who are inside of
Speaker 1: the red zone among the best in the NFL. They're
Speaker 1: obviously with Mahomes a terrific offense, and Casey comes into
Speaker 1: the game. They haven't covered a game since November one
Speaker 1: against my beloved New York Jet. So, like it's a
Speaker 1: huge contrast in terms of how these two teams are
Speaker 1: being treated. I think the Bills probably for the first
Speaker 1: time in the entire season, hit like the peak of
Speaker 1: their price point against the Colts in the wild card game,
Speaker 1: where there was seven point favorites. That was just the
Speaker 1: second time all season that they were seven point favorites
Speaker 1: in a game, believe it or not, despite how great
Speaker 1: they've been playing. And so I can't help but look
Speaker 1: at this game and say, if either of these sort
Speaker 1: of streaks were reversed or not as existent coming into
Speaker 1: the game, if maybe they were both four and four
Speaker 1: against the spread, or they didn't have these contrasting streaks
Speaker 1: coming in, Like are we looking at Kansas City is
Speaker 1: a much bigger favorite? Like is this a case where
Speaker 1: the number now at three is doing part to obviously
Speaker 1: the Mahomes injury, but like, is it suppressed a little
Speaker 1: bit because of how great Buffalo has been and now
Speaker 1: Kansas City has not been able to cover or spread
Speaker 1: in over two and a half months, Like, how does
Speaker 1: that factor into this number, and how large would it
Speaker 1: be if if those things were reversed or non existent,
Speaker 1: and do those things like really really matter for this matchup?
Speaker 1: And the Chiefs similar to the Packers, Like they're a
Speaker 1: team that despite not covering in a lot of these
Speaker 1: games down the stretch, Like they're out to a huge
Speaker 1: lead against the Buccaneers, they don't end up covering. They're
Speaker 1: out to a huge lead against the Broncos, don't end
Speaker 1: up covering. They're out a huge lead against the Dolphins,
Speaker 1: don't end up covering the same thing with the Saints,
Speaker 1: And then last week again against the Browns, they get
Speaker 1: up by a couple of scores and in Cleveland ends
Speaker 1: up coming back and getting that backdoor cover. So it's
Speaker 1: it's a very similar situation, and I can't help but
Speaker 1: feel that the number could potentially be just a little
Speaker 1: bit low because of the circumstances that bring both of
Speaker 1: these teams into the game. By the way, I forgot
Speaker 1: you were a Jets fan, would you do you want
Speaker 1: to trade for Deshaun badly? Would you make trades for
Speaker 1: Deshaun ask Houston? Whatever they want and give it to
Speaker 1: them without asking questions. I think that is the proper response.
Speaker 1: Deshaun who was number three, as Matt said earlier Pro
Speaker 1: Football Focus quarterbacks, the other four in the top five
Speaker 1: all in championship games. Matt Q. Yeah, so I took
Speaker 1: when this thing got to three and a half, I
Speaker 1: took it on the Bills. If you're gonna give me,
Speaker 1: you know, more to field goal again on this game,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take it. Listen, you go back to that
Speaker 1: Week six game and you say, like, Okay, is there
Speaker 1: anything we can pull from that? And I think there
Speaker 1: is at least a little bit that we can pull
Speaker 1: from that one. So you look at my homes against
Speaker 1: statistically one of his lower games of the year six,
Speaker 1: that's that's obviously a good completion for twenty five yards passing.
Speaker 1: The big outlier there is you look and you see
Speaker 1: Clyde Edwards, a layer goes for a hundred and sixty
Speaker 1: one yards on the ground on twenty six carries. And
Speaker 1: what you see there is again what I kind of
Speaker 1: talked about last game with this Bills team, and and
Speaker 1: and this isn't a pattern if you go over the
Speaker 1: course of the season, the Bills lull you into wanting
Speaker 1: to run the ball against them because they understand again,
Speaker 1: Sean McDermott, and these guys are smart enough to know
Speaker 1: that running the ball in early downs is not the
Speaker 1: way to win football games in in the NFL. It
Speaker 1: is less efficient. And that is kind of how they
Speaker 1: go about kind of tricking you into doing something that
Speaker 1: you really shouldn't be doing, especially if you're a team
Speaker 1: like the Chiefs. And if you look back at this
Speaker 1: Week six game, the Chiefs ran the ball on percent
Speaker 1: of first and second down plays in that game. The
Speaker 1: Bills just let them do it. There were six or
Speaker 1: fewer players in the box on of the plays on
Speaker 1: the Bills side of the ball and defense because wanted
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes to not utilize the Travis Kelsey's in the
Speaker 1: in the Tyree Hills and stuff like that, and utilize
Speaker 1: what he does so incredibly well. Run the ball all day. Eventually,
Speaker 1: it's not gonna work out, and we're going to be
Speaker 1: able to capitalize on that. Now, it didn't work out
Speaker 1: in this game that that that strategy um they were
Speaker 1: they were able to get you know, seven over seven
Speaker 1: yards to carry and and they were incredibly efficient on
Speaker 1: the ground and the Chiefs weren't able to I mean,
Speaker 1: the Bills weren't able to hold them to get it done.
Speaker 1: But I mean, I think that strategy should play here
Speaker 1: yet again. I think they should do that again. Don't
Speaker 1: let Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelsey and Tyree Hill get
Speaker 1: it going against you, play light in the box, let
Speaker 1: him run the ball and and you know, with a
Speaker 1: less than a hundred percent Clyde Edwards Hilaire this time around,
Speaker 1: or Darryl Williams, whatever it might be, whoever gets the
Speaker 1: bulk of the carries for this team. And Alan's not
Speaker 1: going to have as bad a game as he did
Speaker 1: the first game, his worst game of the season by far,
Speaker 1: only a hundred and twenty two yards through the air.
Speaker 1: He did add forty two on the ground, but he
Speaker 1: was under pressure on seventeen of his thirty one dropbacks.
Speaker 1: That's not going to happen again as well. And so
Speaker 1: I think that you kind of look at this as
Speaker 1: Josh Allen's worst game of the year against a creative
Speaker 1: defensive strategy that the Bills are going to uh, you know,
Speaker 1: I think that they're going to use again. And you know,
Speaker 1: is Andy Reid aware of that. Is Andy Reid going
Speaker 1: to counter that by, you know, not running the ball
Speaker 1: and not letting it and not getting sucked into that,
Speaker 1: or if they're gonna hand you the four and five
Speaker 1: yards every time, is it just too good to let go?
Speaker 1: And so I expect some offensive regression from the Bills
Speaker 1: in this game to get back to where they were
Speaker 1: basically the entire rest of the season moving the ball.
Speaker 1: This Chief's defense certainly can be had definitely on the ground,
Speaker 1: and the Bills are a little bit more efficient running
Speaker 1: the ball when they actually do run it, then you
Speaker 1: give it credit for singletary. Actually average is nearly four
Speaker 1: and a half yards a carry on the season. It's
Speaker 1: just that they just don't run bel they just throw
Speaker 1: all the time. Because they're so good at throwing the ball.
Speaker 1: The receiving corps back help completely healthy. The addition of
Speaker 1: an experience of Gabriel Davis, the rookie getting going a
Speaker 1: lot better, uh in this offense as well. So if
Speaker 1: you're gonna give me three in a hook, it's not
Speaker 1: available anymore. I took the three in a hook even
Speaker 1: at the three. I don't hate it. I think the
Speaker 1: Bills can win this game out right. I mean we're
Speaker 1: we're talking about the concussion for Patrick Mahomes, and yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean that that's a big deal for sure, but
Speaker 1: I mean he was hobbling something fierce in that game.
Speaker 1: We I mean, like, this is like even if we
Speaker 1: get him out there, like we're not getting Patrick Malmes
Speaker 1: no matter what I mean, even if it's if whether
Speaker 1: it's the head or it's the foot tow whatever and
Speaker 1: whatever the hell it might be that's going on down there. So, um,
Speaker 1: you give me one of the very best offenses in
Speaker 1: the NFL the entire season long against you know, a
Speaker 1: casey offense that might have a Patrick Mahomes. I understand
Speaker 1: eighty percent, Patrick Mahomes is better than basically every quarterback
Speaker 1: in the NFL. But uh, this, this Bill's team is
Speaker 1: not going to let you get by with any sort
Speaker 1: of lulls. They're going to move the ball, They're going
Speaker 1: to score. So give me the three and a half.
Speaker 1: Give me the three, and like I said, I'll have
Speaker 1: a sprinkle on the Bills money line as well. You're
Speaker 1: you're so right that we could all be focused on
Speaker 1: the wrong Patrick Mahomes injury. I will say that I've
Speaker 1: gotten this cottage industry of I don't want to call
Speaker 1: him Dr Chow disciples because they may be much more
Speaker 1: legit on you know, who have who have contacted like, oh,
Speaker 1: the toe is not a big thing. Oh the toe
Speaker 1: could be a big thing. So who knows. But you're right,
Speaker 1: it was definitely hampering him. I love that you went
Speaker 1: back and watched the two games, the green Bay Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay game in the Buffalo Kansas City game that happened
Speaker 1: in week six. Man. The other thing is, I think
Speaker 1: in the in the end, I'm going to be on
Speaker 1: I'm already on Green Bay, but I'm gonna be on
Speaker 1: Green Bay and Kansas City. Um. I think for me,
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna, you know, if you can beat me,
Speaker 1: if both of those other teams can beat me, tip
Speaker 1: of the cap. But the one thing that I just
Speaker 1: absolutely do not if I if I see this on
Speaker 1: Twitter this weekend, I'm just gonna lose my mind. I hate,
Speaker 1: just as a general rule, when people talk about sharp
Speaker 1: and square and pros and Joe's or whatever the hell
Speaker 1: they're talking about. But please, with these two championship games,
Speaker 1: I don't want to say, oh, the sharp side is this,
Speaker 1: and it's just come on, stop with that this weekend.
Speaker 1: Every I like when they do that stuff. It's just
Speaker 1: so dumb. This week specifically, it will be ridiculous. Alright,
Speaker 1: do now. I watched the first game between the Buffalo
Speaker 1: Bills in the Kansas City Chiefs, very very clearly Hashem
Speaker 1: got involved and screwed me because I had the team
Speaker 1: total first half over Kansas City. If you remember, Kelsey
Speaker 1: made a touchdown in the rain in the back corner
Speaker 1: of the end zone late in the first half and
Speaker 1: then Butcker missed the extra point to screw me on
Speaker 1: my team total. So I remember this game. Uh, and
Speaker 1: Matt Brown has it right. This game. The only thing
Speaker 1: I will say this game was very very interesting, and
Speaker 1: if you remember correctly, I remember watching this game and
Speaker 1: thinking the Bills are saying to them, please take seven
Speaker 1: yards a carry. Please, here you go, take seven yards.
Speaker 1: We do not want to let you beat us with
Speaker 1: the passing game. So Andy Reid said, okay, fine, you're
Speaker 1: gonna give me seven eight yards a carry. I'll just
Speaker 1: keep running the ball. And that's exactly what happened. And
Speaker 1: while McDermott have a good strategy, Matt with doing that
Speaker 1: against most teams it wasn't working that night because they
Speaker 1: were getting seven and eight yards a carry. Now, I'm
Speaker 1: sure that might work against other teams that aren't a
Speaker 1: juggernaut offense like Kansas City. I remember watching this game
Speaker 1: and thinking, there's not a chance in hell the Bills
Speaker 1: can win this game because they're not gonna be able
Speaker 1: to stop him even one time. They're gonna just keep
Speaker 1: letting them drive down the field with these eight yard runs.
Speaker 1: If you remember, Hilaire was getting gashing them every single
Speaker 1: I don't know what he was averaging uh that game,
Speaker 1: but it was something ridiculous the running that they were
Speaker 1: doing in this game. So what the way I want
Speaker 1: to look at this game is I think that if
Speaker 1: especially in the first half, maybe first half, Um, if
Speaker 1: you can get um in game running for first half,
Speaker 1: a lot of places have that. Now if you see that,
Speaker 1: that's what it's gonna be, and the Bills are gonna
Speaker 1: just play everybody back and let them run the ball
Speaker 1: on them again, you might want to take the under
Speaker 1: here because you're gonna see a lot of six and
Speaker 1: seven minute drives because Kansas City will say, fine, give
Speaker 1: us seven yards a carry, no problem. It just eats
Speaker 1: the clock eats the clock, eats the clock, and you
Speaker 1: might want to be looking at that. Um. Now. On
Speaker 1: the other hand, I'm with Gil as far as if
Speaker 1: if you I'm gonna watch this, I'm obviously not gonna
Speaker 1: play a pregame, but I'm gonna watch the first series
Speaker 1: or two and see does Mahomes look like he's okay.
Speaker 1: If he does look like he's okay, I am all
Speaker 1: over Kansas City. The Buffalo defense is fraudulent. I said
Speaker 1: it before the Indianapolis game when I took I went
Speaker 1: against Phil Rivers anonymous meetings, and I go to Phil
Speaker 1: Rivers anonymous games. I went against that, and I bet
Speaker 1: on Phil Rivers plus the six or seven against Indy
Speaker 1: because I know the Buffalo defense is fraudulent. They had
Speaker 1: their numbers go up. And this is why I can't
Speaker 1: stand the d v O A and the s p
Speaker 1: C A and all the difference against I'm against all
Speaker 1: the anybody with initials, okay, because here's the deal. The
Speaker 1: Buffalo defense the first half of the year was not good.
Speaker 1: Look at this. Look at the forty two they gave
Speaker 1: up against Tennessee thirty two to the r MS. They
Speaker 1: give up like a thousand and the second half in
Speaker 1: that game, they were not good. And then all of
Speaker 1: a sudden, they played a couple of teams that just
Speaker 1: stink ola on offense, like San Francisco with Mullen, Pittsburgh Steelers,
Speaker 1: Denver Broncos, New England Patriots don't even have an offense,
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins, and and everyone's like, oh, well, Buffalo's defense, Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's pretty good. No it's not. It's not good. So
Speaker 1: Kansas City will move if Mahomes is okay. Now, this
Speaker 1: all is an in game play for me because I
Speaker 1: want to see what Mahomes look like. And I also
Speaker 1: like Matt brown point, the foot also is a big problem. Matt,
Speaker 1: that's a freaking great point that everyone's forgetting about. The
Speaker 1: foot is a huge problem. So let's see what happens
Speaker 1: in the first two drives and then we're gonna be
Speaker 1: able to tell right away what's going on here. Are
Speaker 1: we gonna get Andy Reed handing the ball off for
Speaker 1: six seven yards of play? Does Mahomes look okay? If
Speaker 1: there was ever a game that screamed out for in gaming,
Speaker 1: and I think in gaming is the way to go
Speaker 1: on a hundred percent of the games, But if there
Speaker 1: was ever a game that screams out for in game,
Speaker 1: it's this football game. All good points, all good points.
Speaker 1: Did we miss anything, guys? Teaser Matt, You're you're teasing
Speaker 1: both dogs here together. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I've got both
Speaker 1: of them up. I have the Bucks at ten and
Speaker 1: I have the Bills at nine. The only other thing
Speaker 1: about that Week six game, I mean, they did run
Speaker 1: the ball all over the Bills. Matt Mulano was out
Speaker 1: in that game, and so just again there's there are
Speaker 1: these guys that when they're out there, it does affect that.
Speaker 1: Now that's not to say that he's like this complete,
Speaker 1: complete game changer and that's going to mean that they
Speaker 1: can't just run the ball if they will if they
Speaker 1: allow him to do that, but having not having him
Speaker 1: out there certainly was was a factor for the Bills.
Speaker 1: Matt z in against the Colts. Uh, he was in.
Speaker 1: He he he was in about half of the snaps.
Speaker 1: He was trying to come back um from injury there
Speaker 1: and so uh, supposedly he's injured. Supposedly he's uh he's
Speaker 1: healthy for this one. But you know again, but supposedly
Speaker 1: are and Donald was healthy as well, So I mean
Speaker 1: you know, we're you know, we're we gotta deal with
Speaker 1: all that nonsense at this time of year. I mean,
Speaker 1: let's stop that first game. Sorry, sorry, Todd. Let's not
Speaker 1: forget too that that first game was. It was played
Speaker 1: in pouring rains in thirty wins for all four court.
Speaker 1: So I think that influence play calling a ton, But
Speaker 1: it really comes down to how they want to manage
Speaker 1: their safeties against Kansas City. Like Houston and the opener
Speaker 1: played with two deep safeties, and Kansas City did the
Speaker 1: exact same thing where they just they said, Okay, they're
Speaker 1: gonna play like this, and they just walked down the
Speaker 1: field took short games the entire time. Same thing happened
Speaker 1: with the Raiders in the second game. Um happened in
Speaker 1: the Bills game as well. When they chose to do it.
Speaker 1: The Buccaneers played a lot more aggressively. That's why that
Speaker 1: game looked a lot different in terms of how Casey
Speaker 1: was able to move to football. So like, if you're
Speaker 1: looking in play, it doesn't appear like the weather is
Speaker 1: going to be as much of an issue this game,
Speaker 1: certainly not as much as it was in the first meeting,
Speaker 1: where that really impacted the game overall, but like you're
Speaker 1: gonna learn right away how Buffalo is going to choose
Speaker 1: to defend Mahomes and Casey and if it is that
Speaker 1: too deep, look, Kansas City has really gone to sort
Speaker 1: of the same play calling the entire reason when teams
Speaker 1: have chosen to do that. But what is interesting, it's
Speaker 1: like in the repeat games with the Raiders the Texans
Speaker 1: that was essentially a repeat game because they played them
Speaker 1: in the playoffs, um, and then we saw a couple
Speaker 1: of other times as well within the division, they the
Speaker 1: teams that opposed them flip their defensive schemes game to game.
Speaker 1: They no team within the division went the same scheme
Speaker 1: both games. So we might see a bit of a
Speaker 1: change with Buffalo in terms of how they want to
Speaker 1: handle it. Maybe we don't, we're just sort of speculating,
Speaker 1: but if we're looking at sort of the other four
Speaker 1: repeat games, including that Houston one, complete opposites in terms
Speaker 1: of how defenses opposed Kansas City because they of how
Speaker 1: they factored in the first game. So sorry, what's what's
Speaker 1: so great about this game is we get to watch
Speaker 1: the game and then we can bet, and now they
Speaker 1: even which you guys in Vegas don't have, but Fandel,
Speaker 1: they have in game props, don't we know. I couldn't
Speaker 1: theoretically watch this first quarter and see, are they gonna
Speaker 1: just give it to the running back every five seconds? Okay,
Speaker 1: I'm betting that rushing. I know the number is going
Speaker 1: to be inflated, but I don't care inflate the number
Speaker 1: on me. I'll take the over anyways, and it'll still
Speaker 1: get there because you're gonna be able to tell the
Speaker 1: strategy of the as Adam just so pointed out, Matt
Speaker 1: pointed out, my friend Gilly even gets this. And you know, Gilly,
Speaker 1: he's not the brightest bulb in the bunch. Um, I'm
Speaker 1: just kidding, guys, I love Gilly. Um. The point is
Speaker 1: you're gonna get to watch and see. That's why end
Speaker 1: game is so important. Whether whether I'm gonna say, Gil, yeah,
Speaker 1: that's where I was gonna go with that. It's like, yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, if as far as weather goes, the Kansas
Speaker 1: City is completely clear, Like that's gonna be a perfectly
Speaker 1: fine game in that one. But yeah, in Green Bay,
Speaker 1: it looks like it actually could snow. Now, it does
Speaker 1: look like this could be a snow game. It looks
Speaker 1: like the latest model here has like one to three
Speaker 1: inches of snow on Sunday, might even be a little
Speaker 1: bit of accumulation and stuff like that, but as we know,
Speaker 1: that always looks worse than it actually is because there's
Speaker 1: not gonna be any wind to go along with that.
Speaker 1: So you know who knows, and and Adam, if if
Speaker 1: you like the over, if you y'all both of you
Speaker 1: all like the over, in that game, we might see
Speaker 1: this total falk because people overreact to the snow on
Speaker 1: the damn field, and we might be able to get
Speaker 1: even better and even better number whenever it whenever it
Speaker 1: rolls around. So hopefully it does snow and all they
Speaker 1: talk about is the snow on the field, and then
Speaker 1: we get even better value and taking the over in
Speaker 1: this favor is the flag at the top of the
Speaker 1: stadium that's like four ft above the wind and then
Speaker 1: oh it's windy here, and then you go to field
Speaker 1: level that's beneath the stands and it's nothing. Although I
Speaker 1: will say this man, with that that Buffalo game against
Speaker 1: Baltimore last week, we're like, oh, it's only eight miles
Speaker 1: per hour. And then as soon as that game started,
Speaker 1: alt Michael's was like, if this is eight mile per
Speaker 1: hour winds, I'm an astronaut. And those goalposts were like
Speaker 1: covering the entire game, and and justin, Justin Tucker couldn't
Speaker 1: make field goals. Yeah, but MAT's right, there's you know,
Speaker 1: maybe snow in Green Bay fifty could be rained in
Speaker 1: Kansas City, but yet not close to snow forty four
Speaker 1: degrees expected in Kansas City for the second game. By
Speaker 1: the way, that's fahrenheit at him. For those of you
Speaker 1: who are I got it. Yeah, Adam was making a
Speaker 1: good point that I think that people who know gambling understand,
Speaker 1: which is snow is not as big a factor as wind.
Speaker 1: So just in case people who are a little less
Speaker 1: experienced and understanding what he was trying to say there,
Speaker 1: he was basically saying that snow is sometimes faked into
Speaker 1: people thinking the under when really it can theoretically being
Speaker 1: over because the defensive backs fall down and the receivers
Speaker 1: know where they're going, whereas wind is really an under
Speaker 1: thing because it's much harder to throw the ball. I
Speaker 1: was just that's just a little help out because Adam
Speaker 1: was making good point. I didn't want all the newbies
Speaker 1: not to know what he was saying. Thank you for
Speaker 1: the clarification. I think Matt said it by the way
Speaker 1: that Matt say, it doesn't matter whatever was they were
Speaker 1: both saying. They were both saying it, But my point
Speaker 1: was they I think they were. They were talking like
Speaker 1: I knew exactly what they were saying, but I'm sure
Speaker 1: some people didn't. Alright, you're sweating out your osasuna one
Speaker 1: one nil sixty six. I lost. I had osa suna
Speaker 1: under a half plus one sixty Oh sorry, sorry about um. Okay, uh,
Speaker 1: We've done all we can do. Appreciate it. As always,
Speaker 1: as Matt said at the very beginning, the nice part
Speaker 1: about this is, and again maybe I'm wrong in memory,
Speaker 1: but I don't remember too off at us having four
Speaker 1: teams where no matter the matchup for the Super Bowl. Um,
Speaker 1: whether it's the Bucks versus the Chiefs or Bills, or
Speaker 1: whether it's the Packers. Excuse, but yeah, the Packers versus
Speaker 1: the Chiefs are Bills. Um that all of these spreads,
Speaker 1: you know, we guess them on Primetime Action earlier this week.
Speaker 1: They're all like three or lower, with the Bucks and
Speaker 1: the Bills being as close to a pick them as
Speaker 1: as as there are in all these so it's gonna
Speaker 1: be a great matchup no matter the case. Uh, come
Speaker 1: two weeks from today, next week, Uh, the week off
Speaker 1: not a week off for the podcast. It's our tenth
Speaker 1: annual Vegas Lifestyle podcast, a Man's Guide to send City.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be strange because it was a pandemic year,
Speaker 1: so I don't know how much additions will have, But
Speaker 1: we'll get Mikey back in here and uh we'll talk
Speaker 1: about that, and then of course two weeks from now
Speaker 1: not only take on the super Bowl, but also Super
Speaker 1: Bowl props, the super Bowl edition of that. Can I
Speaker 1: just can I just pimp out my my Twitter feed
Speaker 1: real quick? Okay at t wishnev is my Twitter feed
Speaker 1: t w I s h n e v UM. I
Speaker 1: went back and looked all the way back through November
Speaker 1: twenty this year when college basketball started to see how
Speaker 1: I was doing, and in just the ones that I tweeted,
Speaker 1: because I didn't tweet all my plays, but in my
Speaker 1: college basketball tweets, um I am one seventy one and
Speaker 1: one oh seven, and in game college basketball tweets and
Speaker 1: my football tweets since that time as well, I had
Speaker 1: I broke them out. I'm sixty five and fifty one.
Speaker 1: So if you if you want a good uh, now,
Speaker 1: you also have to endure my tweets where I wind
Speaker 1: like a little baby because something bad happens to me.
Speaker 1: So there is that that comes with it. There's a
Speaker 1: lot of bitching and moaning and crying. But if you
Speaker 1: can handle the bitching and moaning and crying, you can
Speaker 1: get some winner. Something that's kind of the hurdle with you,
Speaker 1: isn't it. That's part of it. Yes, there's gonna be
Speaker 1: a lot of bitching and yeah, Adam, it's the Simple
Speaker 1: Handicap Podcast. Anything else we should know you're in the
Speaker 1: gall off now you're putting out golf stuff. Yeah, first
Speaker 1: year I'm doing golf. I was essentially irrelevant between February
Speaker 1: and September when there was no football. So I'm doing
Speaker 1: it out of out of love for golf and love
Speaker 1: for betting on golf. So that'll be once a week.
Speaker 1: I love it and the Simple Handicap available. We're all
Speaker 1: podcaster attributed Matteo. Besides Primetime Action, did you want to
Speaker 1: plug anything? You don't need to follow me on Twitter.
Speaker 1: Don't worry about it. Yeah, that's bad. I like your
Speaker 1: post on Twitter. That is very Yeah, it's Matt Brown
Speaker 1: him too. There you got Matt Brown, m too. Give
Speaker 1: me all of your hate and vitriol. I'm here for
Speaker 1: He's very comfortable in his own skin. This Matt Brown,
Speaker 1: very comfortable. I love it alright for Adam turning off
Speaker 1: for Matt Brown. Four Todd wish If. Thank you guys,
Speaker 1: appreciated uh NFL Championship around. Good luck with all your
Speaker 1: bets this weekend. Thanks for listening to the megapod. Appreciate it.
Speaker 1: T