WEBVTT - Kristen Bitterly Michell on Wealth Management

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<v Speaker 1>M This is Mesters in Business with Very Results on

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. This week on the podcast, I have an

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<v Speaker 1>extra special guest. Her name is Kristin Biddoly Michelle. She

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<v Speaker 1>is head of North America Investments for City Global Wealth,

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<v Speaker 1>which is a giant wealth management arm of the giant

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<v Speaker 1>City Bank. They run over eight hundred billion dollars in

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<v Speaker 1>client assets, and Kristen's group, the North American Group, is

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<v Speaker 1>responsible for about half of the revenue that that massive

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<v Speaker 1>organization generates. She really has an incredible background in everything

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<v Speaker 1>from capital markets to derivatives to wealth management. And I

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<v Speaker 1>found this to be an absolutely fascinating conversation covering everything

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<v Speaker 1>from risk to inflation to how to manage markets and

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<v Speaker 1>how to manage investments when market show a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>volatility and everybody starts to get a little nervous. I

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<v Speaker 1>thought this was quite fascinating, and I think you will

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<v Speaker 1>also with no further ado, my conversation with City Global Wealth.

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<v Speaker 1>Kristen Bitterly Michelle, So, you have really very interesting background.

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<v Speaker 1>You've been involved with capital markets for your entire career.

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<v Speaker 1>What led you to this area. It's really interesting because

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not someone that you would think would be the

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<v Speaker 1>typical profile to end up in capital markets or or

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<v Speaker 1>sales and trading. I'm from a very small town in

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<v Speaker 1>the middle of Pennsylvania. It's a town of about four

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<v Speaker 1>thousand people. So exposure to markets or investment banking, or

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<v Speaker 1>any of the careers in finance was not something that

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<v Speaker 1>you really envisioned. And so coming out of school, I

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<v Speaker 1>studied economics and Spanish literature, and I applied to a

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<v Speaker 1>program that actually targeted liberal arts majors. It was at

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<v Speaker 1>Bank one at the time. It was called the First

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<v Speaker 1>Scholars Program AM, and they targeted liberal arts majors, and

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<v Speaker 1>the whole concept of it was, why don't we take

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<v Speaker 1>liberal arts majors, give them on the job training, give

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<v Speaker 1>them exposure to a variety of different areas of banking

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<v Speaker 1>and finance. And so this gave me exposure to everything

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<v Speaker 1>from investment banking to retail looking at like checking account

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<v Speaker 1>campaigns like how do you get more assets in the door?

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<v Speaker 1>To credit risk, and ultimately, to make a very long

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<v Speaker 1>story short, I fell in love with derivatives. So derivatives

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<v Speaker 1>were a part where I was very intimidated. I wasn't

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<v Speaker 1>that typical person that did a number of you know

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<v Speaker 1>internships during the summer had that with no No, I

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<v Speaker 1>was econ and kind of geeky. I love statistics, I

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<v Speaker 1>loved math, but really I was going to go down

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<v Speaker 1>that literature route more than anything else and and study

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<v Speaker 1>Spanish literature. And so when I arrived and got this

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<v Speaker 1>exposure and on the job training, I really challenged myself

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<v Speaker 1>to do the thing that I thought was going to

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<v Speaker 1>be the scariest, and so derivatives at the time seemed

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<v Speaker 1>like the scariest, the scariest area, and so I said,

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<v Speaker 1>all right, it's six months, let's see, let's see how

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<v Speaker 1>this goes. And so it was within the corporate equity

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<v Speaker 1>Derivatives team. I was very lucky to have amazing mentors,

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<v Speaker 1>amazing people around me who really taught me about the business,

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<v Speaker 1>taught me about markets. And once I started making that

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<v Speaker 1>translation in my mind that it's just a different language,

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<v Speaker 1>it's different vernacular. Like when you think of derivatives, it's

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<v Speaker 1>like statistics, right, if you have a base foundation in statistics,

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<v Speaker 1>it's just translating those different concepts to a new language.

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<v Speaker 1>I very quickly fell in love with it. I I

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<v Speaker 1>fell in love with equity derivatives. I thought they were

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<v Speaker 1>amazing building blocks and a really creative part. And it

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<v Speaker 1>was this combination of being, like I said, kind of

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<v Speaker 1>geeky kind of quantity, but then being client facing. And

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<v Speaker 1>so that was really kind of the early formation where

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<v Speaker 1>I'm like, this is the area where I want to be.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to be client facing, I want to help

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<v Speaker 1>client solve problems. But having this very creative, almost modular

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<v Speaker 1>part in terms of designing solutions and structuring solutions I loved.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's talk exactly about that at City in two

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<v Speaker 1>thousand and seven fantastic time, and you take over as

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<v Speaker 1>head of structured solutions. Tell us a little bit about

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<v Speaker 1>what that job entailed under normal circumstances, and then we'll

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<v Speaker 1>talk about the couple of years that followed. Sure, so

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<v Speaker 1>I'll tell you a little bit about how I came

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<v Speaker 1>to City. So I spent a long time in markets,

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<v Speaker 1>Like I said, big focus on derivatives, both on the

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<v Speaker 1>sales as well as structuring side. I covered corporate clients,

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<v Speaker 1>institutional clients, as well as ultra high net worth and

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<v Speaker 1>high net worth clients. At the time when I started

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<v Speaker 1>really focusing in that part of the industry, a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of those corporate equity derivative teams. They covered both, they

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<v Speaker 1>covered individuals as well as as well as the corporations.

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<v Speaker 1>And so throughout that journey and covering different regions, different

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<v Speaker 1>types of clients, I found that with the high net

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<v Speaker 1>worth ultra highnetworth clients you developed a much stronger relationship.

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<v Speaker 1>So this was a part of the market that it

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<v Speaker 1>really challenged your own understanding of these strategies because these

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<v Speaker 1>were clients that some of them were very sophisticated when

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<v Speaker 1>it came to financial products. Some of them it was

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<v Speaker 1>their first experience. They had a big liquidity event, they

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<v Speaker 1>sold their company to another company, their company just went public,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's the first time that they're talking about options,

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<v Speaker 1>right and strategies to exactly to be able to hedge,

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<v Speaker 1>maintain wealth, monetize wealth. And so this ability to either

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<v Speaker 1>go super technical with someone who was an expert in

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<v Speaker 1>that field, and also be able to roll it back

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<v Speaker 1>and just explain at a very high level, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>what is the purpose of the strategy, what is it

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<v Speaker 1>helping you do? What could go wrong? And so ultimately,

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<v Speaker 1>given the different types of client segments that I had covered,

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<v Speaker 1>I made the decision that I really wanted to be

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<v Speaker 1>in wealth management, and so two thousand seven, UM, I

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<v Speaker 1>came over to city. My husband, UM always teases me

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<v Speaker 1>on this point that he says, you know, aren't you,

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<v Speaker 1>in some aspects kind of a trader? And when you

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<v Speaker 1>think about market timing, was two thousands even the best

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<v Speaker 1>time to make a move, um, But it ended up

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<v Speaker 1>being a perfect time actually long term for for my career.

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<v Speaker 1>And so coming into the city a lot of changes

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<v Speaker 1>right on the brink of the Great Financial Crisis. And

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the one challenge there, Berry was the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that we were selling these these products and solutions that

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<v Speaker 1>actually were extremely relevant given market conditions. But obviously, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>protecting your wealth, hedging downside risk, providing liquidity, helping people

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<v Speaker 1>navigate margin calls. But obviously it was a really challenging environment,

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of market volatility, and anything that had the

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<v Speaker 1>counter party of a large bank was not something that

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<v Speaker 1>was going to go over well. So there's always risk

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<v Speaker 1>involve with which people tend to ignore when things are

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<v Speaker 1>pretty well, Let's say in two thousand seven, a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people weren't thinking about counter party risk. Tell us

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<v Speaker 1>what it was like when everything hits the fan. In

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<v Speaker 1>O eight oh nine, derivatives blow up, not that you

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<v Speaker 1>were playing in the leverage, not at all. Risk management.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a different sort of derivative than c d O CMOS,

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<v Speaker 1>CDO squared, etcetera. You were basically doing more rational We're

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<v Speaker 1>helping people customize their risk return profile across asset classes,

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<v Speaker 1>is the way that I think about it. And so

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<v Speaker 1>there's definitely a pre in post. I mean, when you

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<v Speaker 1>look at that pre it was you know, the thought

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<v Speaker 1>counterparty risk of a bank was solid, right, Like that

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<v Speaker 1>was something it wasn't even questioned. I'm sure you remember

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<v Speaker 1>this as well in terms of the bond market, whether

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<v Speaker 1>you were looking at structured products bonds, this idea that

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<v Speaker 1>hey it's issued by this bank, that bank, well known,

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<v Speaker 1>diversified financial services institution. And then the interesting thing is

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<v Speaker 1>before we really saw that the unwinding of risk, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>you saw credit spreads widen, right. You started to see

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<v Speaker 1>credit spreads to sniff things out. Kind of I hate

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<v Speaker 1>to anthropomorphous size markets, but there's a sense that some

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<v Speaker 1>participants in the market are sniffing us out and it

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<v Speaker 1>gets reflected in prices. You can see credit spreads widen,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's something you people are like Wow, that's great, Right,

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<v Speaker 1>they're willing to pay me more. Now I'm getting a

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<v Speaker 1>higher yield on this. And so I think for a reason,

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<v Speaker 1>looking back, you learn from every experience. But I think

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<v Speaker 1>that's one of those one of those moments in time

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<v Speaker 1>where you're like, if something is too good to be true,

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<v Speaker 1>it probably is too good to be true, and questioning

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<v Speaker 1>why something is yielding the amount that it's yielding, and

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<v Speaker 1>so living through that experience, I mean, from a personal standpoint,

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<v Speaker 1>it was tragic, right, Like lives were completely changed across

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<v Speaker 1>obviously the United States, the global economy, and then you

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<v Speaker 1>saw a lot of people that you really respected, really

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<v Speaker 1>cared about. There is a massive amounts of layoffs, and

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<v Speaker 1>so I think it was a very very seismic shift

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of just what we thought finance was, what

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<v Speaker 1>we thought sales and trading was, the stability of that

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<v Speaker 1>type of career. And so I think from that perspective,

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<v Speaker 1>you really realize that nothing is guaranteed. You have a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of gratitude for being able to work in this industry,

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<v Speaker 1>and then you also have to really make sure that

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<v Speaker 1>people realize and again we carry this through to wealth

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<v Speaker 1>management more broadly. If you don't understand what you're doing,

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<v Speaker 1>you should not invest in it, to say the very least.

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<v Speaker 1>So from there you rise to the position head of

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<v Speaker 1>Investments for North America for City Global Wealth. It sounds

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<v Speaker 1>similar to a c i A role Chief Investment officer role.

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<v Speaker 1>Tell us a little bit about your current role and

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<v Speaker 1>what it involves. Sure, I love my current role. I

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<v Speaker 1>love leading investments for North America for City Global Wealth.

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<v Speaker 1>This is an area where if you hear Jane Fraser speak,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's an area where we're heavily investing UM. As

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<v Speaker 1>an institution, one of our key objectives is to be

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<v Speaker 1>a global leader in wealth management, and so my mandate

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<v Speaker 1>in leading North America is really to lead the investments organization.

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<v Speaker 1>And so that's a combination bury to your point about

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<v Speaker 1>the c i O role in terms of what strategy,

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<v Speaker 1>How are we advising our clients, how are we breaking

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<v Speaker 1>down markets? So there's a strategy component to that. They're

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<v Speaker 1>a client coverage component to that. Depending upon UM, your wealth,

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<v Speaker 1>depending upon your objectives, who are you interacting with, whether

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<v Speaker 1>it's an investment advisor, investment counselor, or whether it's product

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<v Speaker 1>specialists who have deep expertise in a particular asset class

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<v Speaker 1>or product. It's our product organization making sure that we're

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<v Speaker 1>offering the right products and solutions, how we're analyzing what

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<v Speaker 1>we offer to our clients, how we're differentiating that versus

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<v Speaker 1>the competition. And the last piece of it, which I've

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<v Speaker 1>become really passionate about over the past really kind of

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<v Speaker 1>five to ten years of my career, is the technology

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<v Speaker 1>and platform. So if you think about some of the

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<v Speaker 1>trends within wealth management, it's not just about the personalization

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<v Speaker 1>bespoke solutions, although that is something that is certainly gained

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<v Speaker 1>um a lot of popularity and grounded and is almost

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<v Speaker 1>becoming table stakes. But there's a big piece of it

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<v Speaker 1>that's digitization, right and the platform and how easy is

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<v Speaker 1>it to access your advice and put capital to work.

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<v Speaker 1>And you can see some of the trends just from

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<v Speaker 1>the digital world, right it and that comparison, if someone's

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<v Speaker 1>going to do an online transaction and online trade that

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<v Speaker 1>is almost like I use the example, it's like seamless

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<v Speaker 1>grubhub right where you call up and like this idea

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<v Speaker 1>of ordering a pizza right and calling a pizza place

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<v Speaker 1>if you go on like on an app, and if

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<v Speaker 1>that pizza place isn't open, You're going to the next one.

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<v Speaker 1>No one's calling anymore. And so those trends within our

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<v Speaker 1>industry as to some of those experiences that our clients

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<v Speaker 1>want where it's contactless, right, this should be frictionless, it

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<v Speaker 1>should be pretty easy for me to do versus where

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<v Speaker 1>we're really adding value in terms of advice. So the platform,

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<v Speaker 1>digital experience and technology is really really critical as well,

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<v Speaker 1>really quite quite interesting. So you've been at City for

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<v Speaker 1>over sixteen years. That's a long time at any one place.

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<v Speaker 1>Tell us about what's kept you there for this long?

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<v Speaker 1>It will be seventeen come December. Yeah, so it's been

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<v Speaker 1>a great experience. Look, I've been very fortunate at City.

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<v Speaker 1>I've had a lot of support, a lot of eight

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<v Speaker 1>people around me, a lot of great mentors, right, And

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<v Speaker 1>I think that one of the things that citied as

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<v Speaker 1>remarkably well is really allows you to transition throughout your

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<v Speaker 1>career in terms of exploring different areas of the business.

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<v Speaker 1>And so while you can see that concentration and markets

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<v Speaker 1>and sales and trading, once I started really working with

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<v Speaker 1>our private bank in a meaningful way, I was then

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<v Speaker 1>able to lead teams of investment counselors and investors. I

0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:27.760
<v Speaker 1>ran investments for the East region. I then came back

0:12:27.880 --> 0:12:31.440
<v Speaker 1>into capital markets and and got to really kind of see, Okay,

0:12:31.440 --> 0:12:34.319
<v Speaker 1>how are we running this business and really setting the

0:12:34.400 --> 0:12:38.120
<v Speaker 1>up this business for this client segment of family offices,

0:12:38.520 --> 0:12:42.280
<v Speaker 1>ultra highnetworth, highnetworth investors. And so while you could see

0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:45.320
<v Speaker 1>this common vein, it really has given me the ability

0:12:45.360 --> 0:12:47.800
<v Speaker 1>to flex different muscles. And that's not just me. I

0:12:47.800 --> 0:12:50.800
<v Speaker 1>mean that's something that's really really common throughout our organization.

0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:52.600
<v Speaker 1>And you'll see that with a lot of people. And

0:12:52.640 --> 0:12:55.160
<v Speaker 1>it doesn't have to be all within wealth management. It

0:12:55.200 --> 0:12:57.320
<v Speaker 1>can be a cross lines of business. So I think

0:12:57.679 --> 0:13:00.000
<v Speaker 1>city and our culture is one of let's keep our

0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:02.880
<v Speaker 1>good people, Let's give them opportunities, whether it's in their

0:13:02.880 --> 0:13:06.080
<v Speaker 1>immediate world or outside. And then the other thing that

0:13:06.120 --> 0:13:09.080
<v Speaker 1>I will say is that I think culturally it's a

0:13:09.160 --> 0:13:14.880
<v Speaker 1>very flat organization. There's access to everyone's accessible. And what

0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:18.120
<v Speaker 1>I've seen that's really special about our culture is even

0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:20.719
<v Speaker 1>when we've had those situations where we lose people, they

0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:26.319
<v Speaker 1>tend to come back. We call them boomerang um. They

0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:28.760
<v Speaker 1>try something else for one to two years and then

0:13:28.800 --> 0:13:31.000
<v Speaker 1>they say you know what this this place just in

0:13:31.120 --> 0:13:34.559
<v Speaker 1>terms of the access, the culture, that drive to kind

0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:38.239
<v Speaker 1>of grow together do stuff as a team. It feels entrepreneurial,

0:13:38.520 --> 0:13:41.760
<v Speaker 1>even though we're such an old bank, right, So that's

0:13:41.800 --> 0:13:44.280
<v Speaker 1>really what's kept me here. And I think now that

0:13:44.320 --> 0:13:47.400
<v Speaker 1>we're embarking upon with Jane taking over at CEO, this

0:13:47.640 --> 0:13:50.440
<v Speaker 1>massive focus and wealth, which is my passion as well.

0:13:50.800 --> 0:13:53.280
<v Speaker 1>I am so excited for the next several years. So

0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:55.880
<v Speaker 1>let me make sure I understand the path that led

0:13:55.920 --> 0:13:58.760
<v Speaker 1>you to City. You were at Bank one, yeah, right,

0:13:58.880 --> 0:14:03.320
<v Speaker 1>and if I recall correct, they were required by JP Morgan,

0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:06.280
<v Speaker 1>So that's how you ended up at JP Morgan. Then

0:14:06.440 --> 0:14:09.600
<v Speaker 1>Credit Swiss, that's right, what led you to go from

0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:13.280
<v Speaker 1>Credit Swiss to City. So each part of my career,

0:14:13.320 --> 0:14:16.079
<v Speaker 1>I would say, is it's something I learned a lot.

0:14:16.160 --> 0:14:19.440
<v Speaker 1>I experienced a lot um so it's like different building blocks.

0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:22.360
<v Speaker 1>But the Bank one JP Morgan days, that was out

0:14:22.360 --> 0:14:25.920
<v Speaker 1>in Chicago, So I worked out in Chicago. That was when.

0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:28.520
<v Speaker 1>It's a very fun town. I have a soft spot

0:14:28.560 --> 0:14:31.400
<v Speaker 1>for Chicago. The food. We could talk about the food first.

0:14:31.960 --> 0:14:36.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm in Chicago every year for Thanksgiving, so it's Turkey

0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:39.360
<v Speaker 1>is just where we start. Then it's yeah, we gotta yeah,

0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:42.160
<v Speaker 1>we definitely need to get into pizza. I'm a Luma

0:14:42.280 --> 0:14:44.400
<v Speaker 1>Natis girl. I don't know how i could go Mill

0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:47.920
<v Speaker 1>Natis or Eduardo's. I'm very I'm very New York, open

0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:52.160
<v Speaker 1>mind people, opportunity, there we go. But so in Chicago,

0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:53.960
<v Speaker 1>it was a really interesting time because if you remember,

0:14:54.000 --> 0:14:57.080
<v Speaker 1>that's when Jamie Diamond was running bank, right, so talk

0:14:57.160 --> 0:15:00.840
<v Speaker 1>about a flat organization, someone who at that moment in

0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:06.479
<v Speaker 1>time was truly a rising star, and he was very accessible,

0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:08.640
<v Speaker 1>spent a lot of time. I always remember him being

0:15:08.680 --> 0:15:12.400
<v Speaker 1>like very client centric, very very client centric. So if

0:15:12.400 --> 0:15:15.720
<v Speaker 1>it was a client of the firm, um making himself accessible,

0:15:15.800 --> 0:15:19.280
<v Speaker 1>making himself available to close those transactions. And so obviously

0:15:19.320 --> 0:15:24.920
<v Speaker 1>the rest is history. In terms of JPMorgan I'm a

0:15:24.960 --> 0:15:26.600
<v Speaker 1>big fan. Though I'm a big fan, I know it's

0:15:26.600 --> 0:15:29.920
<v Speaker 1>a compeating it's a competing bank. He's a phenomenal leader.

0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:33.000
<v Speaker 1>How do you not appreciate a person who steps into

0:15:33.520 --> 0:15:37.800
<v Speaker 1>that role through the takeover and just basically revitalizes the

0:15:37.800 --> 0:15:41.760
<v Speaker 1>whole organization, who was a very impressive career And I

0:15:42.040 --> 0:15:44.480
<v Speaker 1>admire him a lot and and everything that that he's

0:15:44.520 --> 0:15:47.440
<v Speaker 1>done and so I think then like the transition in

0:15:47.480 --> 0:15:49.600
<v Speaker 1>my own career. Right, So when we were going through

0:15:49.640 --> 0:15:53.080
<v Speaker 1>all of those transitions with JP Morgan acquiring Bank One,

0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:55.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, one of the downsides to that talking about

0:15:55.920 --> 0:15:58.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, our our fondness of the city of Chicago

0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:00.320
<v Speaker 1>is a lot of jobs moved to New York, Right,

0:16:00.800 --> 0:16:03.360
<v Speaker 1>So a lot of UM what was kind of that

0:16:03.480 --> 0:16:05.920
<v Speaker 1>big bank that was like one of the last banks

0:16:05.920 --> 0:16:09.320
<v Speaker 1>in Chicago and trading floors and things like that. I'm

0:16:09.320 --> 0:16:12.520
<v Speaker 1>talking about diversified financial services. Obviously we weren't going to

0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:14.440
<v Speaker 1>have two of everything, and we we had to to

0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:17.160
<v Speaker 1>move that to New York. And so with that experience

0:16:17.160 --> 0:16:19.880
<v Speaker 1>moving to New York, I did move to to credit

0:16:19.920 --> 0:16:22.400
<v Speaker 1>suite and really that was to flex a slightly different

0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:25.840
<v Speaker 1>muscle in the job. There was building out the Latin

0:16:25.880 --> 0:16:32.080
<v Speaker 1>American business UM selling derivatives, structured products UM to Latin

0:16:32.160 --> 0:16:35.760
<v Speaker 1>American UM banks and broker dealer. So let me stop

0:16:35.800 --> 0:16:40.040
<v Speaker 1>you right there. You have a background undergraduate your economics

0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:44.360
<v Speaker 1>degree from Notre Dame, but you were dual major Spanish

0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:49.560
<v Speaker 1>language and literature degree. How useful was that in Latin America? Like,

0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:53.120
<v Speaker 1>how did you end up in finance Spanish language and literature.

0:16:53.560 --> 0:16:56.600
<v Speaker 1>It was incredibly useful and it's still useful to this day.

0:16:56.680 --> 0:16:59.600
<v Speaker 1>So I am a fluent Spanish speaker. I lived in Spain,

0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:03.320
<v Speaker 1>I lived in Mexico, my husband's from Mexico. Um so

0:17:03.760 --> 0:17:06.560
<v Speaker 1>I speak Spanish and my personal life, I've I've used

0:17:06.600 --> 0:17:09.240
<v Speaker 1>it in my professional life, and so when I was

0:17:09.280 --> 0:17:12.639
<v Speaker 1>covering Latin America, I will say it was a competitive

0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:15.840
<v Speaker 1>advantage in which everybody speaks English, but you show up

0:17:15.840 --> 0:17:19.840
<v Speaker 1>speaking the local language. I have to think that's well received.

0:17:19.920 --> 0:17:23.040
<v Speaker 1>It is well received, and I think Americans have have

0:17:23.320 --> 0:17:26.200
<v Speaker 1>a reputation for not being multi lingual, for not speaking

0:17:26.200 --> 0:17:29.760
<v Speaker 1>another language, and you know, working at a global bank

0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:32.720
<v Speaker 1>like city where we're constantly interacting with people from around

0:17:32.720 --> 0:17:34.920
<v Speaker 1>the globe, and you see how many other languages are

0:17:34.920 --> 0:17:37.560
<v Speaker 1>our colleagues speak. But at that moment in time, really

0:17:37.600 --> 0:17:40.960
<v Speaker 1>kind of focusing on Latin America and then going in region,

0:17:41.119 --> 0:17:44.600
<v Speaker 1>going down to Miami, being able to have meetings in Spanish.

0:17:44.640 --> 0:17:46.560
<v Speaker 1>And one thing that I did have to learn though,

0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:49.399
<v Speaker 1>is I so while I was fluent in Spanish, I

0:17:49.440 --> 0:17:54.280
<v Speaker 1>wasn't fluent in let's call it financial language. And so

0:17:54.520 --> 0:17:56.199
<v Speaker 1>you start to learn things like well, so, how do

0:17:56.240 --> 0:17:58.840
<v Speaker 1>you say call option? How do you say so? As

0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:01.720
<v Speaker 1>I was like chating with different people are communicating with

0:18:01.720 --> 0:18:04.800
<v Speaker 1>different people on on Bloomberg, let's say I would, then

0:18:05.000 --> 0:18:06.840
<v Speaker 1>you know what word are they saying? What does that

0:18:06.880 --> 0:18:09.520
<v Speaker 1>mean in terms of financial slang. So it was really

0:18:09.520 --> 0:18:12.640
<v Speaker 1>fun because it developed that part of my language skills.

0:18:12.920 --> 0:18:16.119
<v Speaker 1>But most importantly it was great because, like the client

0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:18.560
<v Speaker 1>base was different, their risk appetite was different. And one

0:18:18.600 --> 0:18:20.280
<v Speaker 1>of the things that I learned is, you know, the

0:18:20.320 --> 0:18:23.240
<v Speaker 1>difference when you look at a US average let's say

0:18:23.240 --> 0:18:25.720
<v Speaker 1>wealth client versus someone who grew up in Latin America.

0:18:26.160 --> 0:18:29.360
<v Speaker 1>Someone who grew up in Latin America has and I'm

0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:32.840
<v Speaker 1>just saying on average, right, this isn't a generalization, but

0:18:32.920 --> 0:18:37.560
<v Speaker 1>they have a higher risk tolerance, they've seen hyper inflationary environments, um,

0:18:37.600 --> 0:18:40.560
<v Speaker 1>they understand currencies, and so when you think of the

0:18:40.640 --> 0:18:43.920
<v Speaker 1>area that I was very passionate about in derivatives, there's

0:18:43.920 --> 0:18:47.359
<v Speaker 1>a natural understanding just by growing up in an economy

0:18:47.440 --> 0:18:51.720
<v Speaker 1>like that that interest rate risk matters, f X risk matters,

0:18:51.960 --> 0:18:57.479
<v Speaker 1>commodity risk matters, and so inflation really can impact, right,

0:18:57.560 --> 0:19:01.000
<v Speaker 1>can severely impact you were net worth, and so it

0:19:01.119 --> 0:19:03.720
<v Speaker 1>was almost like this client base grew up with a

0:19:03.880 --> 0:19:07.280
<v Speaker 1>natural understanding of derivatives and markets, even though maybe they

0:19:07.280 --> 0:19:10.240
<v Speaker 1>didn't recognize that it was derivatives. But there is such

0:19:10.320 --> 0:19:13.040
<v Speaker 1>an easy and it was very facile because of what

0:19:13.080 --> 0:19:16.480
<v Speaker 1>they lived through. So it was definitely an advantage. But

0:19:16.560 --> 0:19:19.439
<v Speaker 1>then when I ran capital markets UM in North America

0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:21.960
<v Speaker 1>and Latin America. UM, you can ask many of my

0:19:22.000 --> 0:19:25.080
<v Speaker 1>colleagues if the dominant language is Spanish, we have meetings

0:19:25.080 --> 0:19:27.520
<v Speaker 1>in Spanish if it's a one on one meeting, and

0:19:27.560 --> 0:19:30.720
<v Speaker 1>you find you know, people's personalities can be different in

0:19:30.760 --> 0:19:33.960
<v Speaker 1>different languages. Their sense of humor, for sure, can be different.

0:19:34.040 --> 0:19:37.439
<v Speaker 1>And so it's been a great experience. So let me

0:19:37.480 --> 0:19:40.560
<v Speaker 1>flip that on its head. The concept of being more

0:19:40.680 --> 0:19:45.840
<v Speaker 1>risk embracing, more aware of inflation, currencies, etcetera. Here in

0:19:45.840 --> 0:19:49.879
<v Speaker 1>the US, how complacent are we because the dollar is

0:19:49.880 --> 0:19:53.240
<v Speaker 1>the reserve currency of the world. We don't think about currencies.

0:19:53.280 --> 0:19:58.119
<v Speaker 1>We don't usually think about inflation, except since the pandemic.

0:19:58.200 --> 0:20:00.480
<v Speaker 1>I haven't thought about it int years. It was a

0:20:00.480 --> 0:20:03.800
<v Speaker 1>little spike pre financial crisis, but for the most part

0:20:03.840 --> 0:20:08.720
<v Speaker 1>it's been a deflationary environment. How does working in North

0:20:08.760 --> 0:20:14.000
<v Speaker 1>America with a client base that doesn't have those same

0:20:14.080 --> 0:20:17.480
<v Speaker 1>sort of sensitivities. How different is that than Latin America.

0:20:17.840 --> 0:20:19.520
<v Speaker 1>So I would say there's a couple of things that

0:20:19.520 --> 0:20:23.280
<v Speaker 1>are really important from a and i'll say US perspective, right,

0:20:23.359 --> 0:20:27.320
<v Speaker 1>So from a US perspective, um, how you hold your

0:20:27.359 --> 0:20:30.080
<v Speaker 1>assets is just as important as what you hold, right,

0:20:30.080 --> 0:20:34.159
<v Speaker 1>So the ship or meaning custodians of course, like in

0:20:34.240 --> 0:20:36.800
<v Speaker 1>terms of of counterparty, but also thinking of like your

0:20:36.840 --> 0:20:40.080
<v Speaker 1>wealth planning and the structure of your assets, um, the

0:20:40.119 --> 0:20:42.320
<v Speaker 1>trusts that are available to you, how you want to

0:20:42.320 --> 0:20:45.399
<v Speaker 1>think about trust and estate planning, and so within the

0:20:45.520 --> 0:20:47.479
<v Speaker 1>U s there's a big focus on how do we

0:20:47.520 --> 0:20:51.359
<v Speaker 1>optimize for tax efficiency too? And so what you'll notice is,

0:20:51.760 --> 0:20:54.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, I think there's almost this thought process that

0:20:54.200 --> 0:20:56.679
<v Speaker 1>everyone wants to be an active trader, And what you

0:20:56.720 --> 0:20:59.680
<v Speaker 1>realize is, yes, there are people who are sincerely interested

0:20:59.720 --> 0:21:02.520
<v Speaker 1>in gets and they follow them and they're passionate about them,

0:21:02.760 --> 0:21:05.120
<v Speaker 1>but they're also really concerned about the after tax impact

0:21:05.320 --> 0:21:07.840
<v Speaker 1>of what they're doing and how they're investing. So I

0:21:07.880 --> 0:21:10.679
<v Speaker 1>think that's a piece of it. I think your average

0:21:10.720 --> 0:21:13.480
<v Speaker 1>US investor aware of interest rates, right, So aware of

0:21:13.480 --> 0:21:15.199
<v Speaker 1>interest rates in terms of what am I earning on

0:21:15.280 --> 0:21:18.199
<v Speaker 1>my deposits, kind of what are the average yields an

0:21:18.280 --> 0:21:21.800
<v Speaker 1>investment grade debt and understanding mortgage rates and and the

0:21:21.840 --> 0:21:25.640
<v Speaker 1>impact in terms of liabilities f X is almost absent

0:21:25.760 --> 0:21:28.720
<v Speaker 1>to a large degree, right for the the average investor.

0:21:29.080 --> 0:21:32.920
<v Speaker 1>That being said, like I mentioned earlier, we're a global bank,

0:21:32.960 --> 0:21:35.080
<v Speaker 1>and so like one of the major advantages we have

0:21:35.240 --> 0:21:39.920
<v Speaker 1>is bringing those international opportunities to our clients, to investors

0:21:40.119 --> 0:21:42.240
<v Speaker 1>and making sure that we're not we don't suffer from

0:21:42.280 --> 0:21:45.080
<v Speaker 1>that home bias in terms of how we're allocating capital.

0:21:45.520 --> 0:21:48.280
<v Speaker 1>And so that's an area where you can then combine

0:21:48.400 --> 0:21:50.560
<v Speaker 1>all of these things that I've that I've talked about.

0:21:50.800 --> 0:21:53.159
<v Speaker 1>You know, what regional exposures do you want? Where do

0:21:53.200 --> 0:21:55.199
<v Speaker 1>you see opportunity? And do you want to take on

0:21:55.240 --> 0:21:57.080
<v Speaker 1>that currency risk or do you not? And so it's

0:21:57.080 --> 0:22:00.840
<v Speaker 1>a little bit of an educational process. But but it's different, right,

0:22:00.880 --> 0:22:03.959
<v Speaker 1>It's different wealth regimes, it's different tax regimes, and so

0:22:04.000 --> 0:22:06.600
<v Speaker 1>a lot of that will drive the decision making process

0:22:06.600 --> 0:22:09.320
<v Speaker 1>as well. So let's stay in the US and stay

0:22:09.400 --> 0:22:13.520
<v Speaker 1>with structures and how you hold assets. What sort of

0:22:13.560 --> 0:22:17.480
<v Speaker 1>an appetite do you see amongst your clients for traditional

0:22:17.520 --> 0:22:22.160
<v Speaker 1>alternatives like hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity. It's

0:22:22.240 --> 0:22:26.240
<v Speaker 1>interesting because that's something that has changed substantially over the

0:22:26.280 --> 0:22:29.760
<v Speaker 1>past let's say, even twelve months. It feels like, Yeah,

0:22:29.840 --> 0:22:32.040
<v Speaker 1>I think there's a little bit of a shift going on,

0:22:32.200 --> 0:22:34.240
<v Speaker 1>and I think you have to separate out if we

0:22:34.240 --> 0:22:37.800
<v Speaker 1>think of alternatives, maybe in three different buckets, private equity

0:22:37.840 --> 0:22:40.040
<v Speaker 1>and I'll put private credit in there as well, private

0:22:40.080 --> 0:22:43.960
<v Speaker 1>equity credit, real estate, and then hedge funds. We've seen strong,

0:22:44.080 --> 0:22:50.080
<v Speaker 1>strong demand pretty consistently for building out alternatives portfolios, particularly

0:22:50.080 --> 0:22:53.639
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to opportunities with great financial sponsors on

0:22:53.720 --> 0:22:58.359
<v Speaker 1>the private equity side. Looking at these long term secular trends, right,

0:22:58.400 --> 0:22:59.960
<v Speaker 1>and I think one of the interesting trends that we

0:23:00.119 --> 0:23:03.520
<v Speaker 1>seen year to date is really while people have been

0:23:03.520 --> 0:23:06.720
<v Speaker 1>conservatively positioned, really kind of shocked by the start of

0:23:06.760 --> 0:23:08.640
<v Speaker 1>the year that we've had one of the worst ones

0:23:08.680 --> 0:23:11.040
<v Speaker 1>on record when we look at both equities and fixed

0:23:11.080 --> 0:23:18.480
<v Speaker 1>income being in tandem, down over ten percent exactly exactly,

0:23:18.560 --> 0:23:21.439
<v Speaker 1>so pretty intense start of the year. But we're clients

0:23:21.440 --> 0:23:25.399
<v Speaker 1>were consistently allocating capital was in private markets, and I think,

0:23:25.480 --> 0:23:27.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, part of that is this ability to take

0:23:27.520 --> 0:23:30.040
<v Speaker 1>a long term view. Right, So short term we know

0:23:30.119 --> 0:23:33.240
<v Speaker 1>some of these changes that we're going through, we're nervous

0:23:33.280 --> 0:23:35.560
<v Speaker 1>about what the fed's trajectory is going to be. I

0:23:35.600 --> 0:23:37.840
<v Speaker 1>think Friday may have cleared that up a little bit

0:23:37.880 --> 0:23:41.480
<v Speaker 1>in Jackson Hole. However, you know what happens next year, right,

0:23:41.520 --> 0:23:43.280
<v Speaker 1>so what happens next year? But being able to take

0:23:43.280 --> 0:23:46.760
<v Speaker 1>a view out five, seven, ten years much easier. So

0:23:47.200 --> 0:23:51.359
<v Speaker 1>I think that those flows into private equity in particular

0:23:51.440 --> 0:23:54.360
<v Speaker 1>have remained really strong. So let's talk about that. Because

0:23:54.400 --> 0:23:57.760
<v Speaker 1>a year ago, the FED wizard zero. You couldn't get

0:23:57.840 --> 0:24:02.040
<v Speaker 1>yield anywhere except for play is like private equity and

0:24:02.280 --> 0:24:07.199
<v Speaker 1>structured credit and structured notes, etcetera, etcetera. Now was the

0:24:07.240 --> 0:24:10.920
<v Speaker 1>tenure we're recording this, it's quarter or something like that,

0:24:11.480 --> 0:24:13.639
<v Speaker 1>and you can get yield. And if we want to

0:24:13.640 --> 0:24:16.920
<v Speaker 1>look at Muni's on a on a tax adjusted basis

0:24:17.600 --> 0:24:21.280
<v Speaker 1>digits depending upon your state, it's almost respectable. Right, So

0:24:22.520 --> 0:24:25.080
<v Speaker 1>what do you think that's gonna do? And I don't

0:24:25.080 --> 0:24:28.480
<v Speaker 1>like to ask people for predictions and forecasts, but you're

0:24:28.520 --> 0:24:31.560
<v Speaker 1>looking at the flows and you get client questions all

0:24:31.560 --> 0:24:35.080
<v Speaker 1>the time. Do you think that we've had this amazing

0:24:35.200 --> 0:24:39.360
<v Speaker 1>run in structured products and private equity because yields were

0:24:39.600 --> 0:24:42.880
<v Speaker 1>so low. Now that yields are higher, what might that

0:24:42.920 --> 0:24:46.080
<v Speaker 1>do to demand for those products. So what we've seen

0:24:46.560 --> 0:24:51.520
<v Speaker 1>is that absolutely bonds are back. So thinking through what

0:24:51.640 --> 0:24:54.320
<v Speaker 1>was not in vogue last year or the year before,

0:24:54.359 --> 0:24:57.960
<v Speaker 1>and this was our advice to in terms of UM

0:24:58.000 --> 0:25:01.560
<v Speaker 1>advising our clients is you know, have and overweight exposure

0:25:01.600 --> 0:25:03.920
<v Speaker 1>to fix income just didn't make sense over the past

0:25:03.960 --> 0:25:06.119
<v Speaker 1>couple of years. You're you're talking what you mean at

0:25:06.119 --> 0:25:08.480
<v Speaker 1>the end of a forty year bowl marketing bonds? You

0:25:08.480 --> 0:25:11.080
<v Speaker 1>don't want to be overweight. You don't want to be overweight.

0:25:11.119 --> 0:25:13.280
<v Speaker 1>And when you know of the world's government dead is

0:25:13.359 --> 0:25:17.120
<v Speaker 1>negative yielding UM, you know, maybe not exactly the best,

0:25:17.160 --> 0:25:22.080
<v Speaker 1>which actually created some really difficult, difficult situations for those

0:25:22.200 --> 0:25:25.240
<v Speaker 1>who were retiring right and those that market was really

0:25:25.240 --> 0:25:27.240
<v Speaker 1>tough because you're like, wait, I need to be overweight

0:25:27.280 --> 0:25:30.040
<v Speaker 1>equities to get the returns that I'm looking for, but

0:25:30.200 --> 0:25:33.119
<v Speaker 1>you know, traditional investment advice is telling me I should

0:25:33.119 --> 0:25:35.480
<v Speaker 1>pull back on some of that risk. So that created

0:25:35.520 --> 0:25:38.320
<v Speaker 1>some interesting dynamics. But I think this year what we're

0:25:38.320 --> 0:25:43.280
<v Speaker 1>seeing is on the private equity alternative side, it's really

0:25:43.320 --> 0:25:45.399
<v Speaker 1>playing that long game. So that ability to kind of

0:25:45.400 --> 0:25:47.439
<v Speaker 1>see longer term and what I think is going to

0:25:47.600 --> 0:25:51.480
<v Speaker 1>really have some legs and separate the noise short term

0:25:51.560 --> 0:25:52.879
<v Speaker 1>is are we going to have a recession? Are we

0:25:52.880 --> 0:25:54.639
<v Speaker 1>not going to have a recession. When it comes to

0:25:54.680 --> 0:25:57.240
<v Speaker 1>fix income, though, we're seeing now all of a sudden,

0:25:57.280 --> 0:25:59.679
<v Speaker 1>you went from a situation where your cash was yielding

0:25:59.720 --> 0:26:02.760
<v Speaker 1>nothing right, and and now you're even looking at whether

0:26:02.760 --> 0:26:06.960
<v Speaker 1>it's short duration, intermediate duration, you're now looking at yields

0:26:07.000 --> 0:26:10.159
<v Speaker 1>that are mid single digits right on investment grade. And

0:26:10.200 --> 0:26:13.320
<v Speaker 1>so what we've seen is it doesn't completely combat, right,

0:26:13.359 --> 0:26:16.680
<v Speaker 1>it doesn't entirely combat that impact of inflation if we're

0:26:16.720 --> 0:26:19.600
<v Speaker 1>staying around eight and a half percent. But for someone

0:26:19.600 --> 0:26:23.760
<v Speaker 1>who's been sitting overweight cash and getting to marginally better outcomes.

0:26:23.800 --> 0:26:26.639
<v Speaker 1>You brought up Munis, which is an excellent example as well.

0:26:27.000 --> 0:26:30.480
<v Speaker 1>You're getting marginally better outcomes on a you know, pre

0:26:30.640 --> 0:26:33.640
<v Speaker 1>tax equivalent basis looking at high single digits depending upon

0:26:34.040 --> 0:26:36.640
<v Speaker 1>what state you reside in. And so all of a sudden,

0:26:37.040 --> 0:26:41.359
<v Speaker 1>that became an easier path versus looking at some of

0:26:41.400 --> 0:26:44.879
<v Speaker 1>the more traditional true risk assets. The one thing that

0:26:44.920 --> 0:26:47.439
<v Speaker 1>I will mention since you brought up structured products as well,

0:26:47.880 --> 0:26:50.399
<v Speaker 1>that's an interesting part of the market that if we

0:26:50.440 --> 0:26:53.000
<v Speaker 1>think about the past ten years, right, So the past

0:26:53.040 --> 0:26:55.520
<v Speaker 1>ten years, and this is someone who's worked in derivatives

0:26:55.520 --> 0:26:59.080
<v Speaker 1>and structured products for quite some time. Um, yes, they've

0:26:59.080 --> 0:27:01.399
<v Speaker 1>gained in popularity, but there was also a little bit

0:27:01.440 --> 0:27:04.160
<v Speaker 1>of a concept. We're in, you know, uh long term

0:27:04.160 --> 0:27:07.560
<v Speaker 1>secular bull market. Everything's going up, right, So this idea

0:27:07.600 --> 0:27:10.840
<v Speaker 1>of customizing my risk return profile, Well, when you think

0:27:10.840 --> 0:27:13.919
<v Speaker 1>of the components of a traditional structured note, you have,

0:27:14.160 --> 0:27:17.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, a bond and then some underlying options. Now

0:27:17.080 --> 0:27:20.640
<v Speaker 1>that rates are higher, that bond is giving you more value.

0:27:21.040 --> 0:27:23.920
<v Speaker 1>And when we see these spikes and volatility, a lot

0:27:23.960 --> 0:27:27.239
<v Speaker 1>of those strategies tend to be short volatility. And so

0:27:27.320 --> 0:27:31.560
<v Speaker 1>now you've created this environment where the market environment is

0:27:31.600 --> 0:27:34.480
<v Speaker 1>giving you the ability to use strategies where you can

0:27:34.520 --> 0:27:39.399
<v Speaker 1>earn high single digit yields with some downside protection. And

0:27:39.440 --> 0:27:41.640
<v Speaker 1>you're saying, look, if the market pulls back another ten

0:27:42.600 --> 0:27:45.160
<v Speaker 1>I'll buy in at that level and in the meantime,

0:27:45.200 --> 0:27:47.840
<v Speaker 1>I'm getting paid to wait. So I think even people

0:27:47.840 --> 0:27:50.800
<v Speaker 1>who question those strategies historically looking at I can go

0:27:50.840 --> 0:27:53.479
<v Speaker 1>into an e t F. Everything's going up. I can

0:27:53.560 --> 0:27:56.560
<v Speaker 1>kind of play some of the momentum now saying, you know,

0:27:56.680 --> 0:27:59.280
<v Speaker 1>where where do I really want to allocate capital? And

0:27:59.320 --> 0:28:01.879
<v Speaker 1>I understand that there's a lot of risks. There's a

0:28:01.920 --> 0:28:04.359
<v Speaker 1>lot of data points that we're waiting on. There's a

0:28:04.880 --> 0:28:06.879
<v Speaker 1>lot that we need to wait on for earnings. And

0:28:06.920 --> 0:28:10.880
<v Speaker 1>the impact that this this tightening, right, this tightening that

0:28:11.000 --> 0:28:13.119
<v Speaker 1>both in terms of rate hikes and quantitative tightening is

0:28:13.119 --> 0:28:16.160
<v Speaker 1>going to have on companies and consumers alike. I think

0:28:16.280 --> 0:28:19.639
<v Speaker 1>it's actually opened up a really nice market and place

0:28:19.720 --> 0:28:23.160
<v Speaker 1>in the portfolio for those strategies. Let's talk a little

0:28:23.160 --> 0:28:27.199
<v Speaker 1>bit about inflation. You mentioned eight and a half percent

0:28:27.359 --> 0:28:31.679
<v Speaker 1>inflation rate. It seems like when we look around the world,

0:28:31.880 --> 0:28:36.800
<v Speaker 1>a lot of that inflation is peak and past us.

0:28:37.320 --> 0:28:40.720
<v Speaker 1>We look at the Baltic dry Index and gas prices

0:28:40.720 --> 0:28:44.240
<v Speaker 1>and oil prices, and go down the list of commodities

0:28:44.280 --> 0:28:49.240
<v Speaker 1>that seemed to be coming down in price, home sales declining,

0:28:49.720 --> 0:28:54.400
<v Speaker 1>although rents remain high. Let's start talking about where we

0:28:54.480 --> 0:28:58.400
<v Speaker 1>are in this rate tightening cycle. What was your takeaway

0:28:58.440 --> 0:29:03.960
<v Speaker 1>from the Jackson Hole Festival of Speeches and and Jerome Pals.

0:29:04.800 --> 0:29:08.680
<v Speaker 1>It's kind of surprising that anybody thinks, um, he didn't

0:29:08.960 --> 0:29:12.240
<v Speaker 1>communicate what was happening. But it seems like the market

0:29:12.320 --> 0:29:14.600
<v Speaker 1>was taken a little by surprise. Don't you think there's

0:29:14.640 --> 0:29:17.360
<v Speaker 1>a debate though, So I think there's this question around

0:29:18.160 --> 0:29:19.960
<v Speaker 1>what we want the FED to do, what we think

0:29:20.000 --> 0:29:22.720
<v Speaker 1>the Fed should do, versus what they're telling us they're

0:29:22.760 --> 0:29:26.280
<v Speaker 1>going to do. Right, so I think that Chair Pal

0:29:26.360 --> 0:29:28.800
<v Speaker 1>has been very clear in terms of what they're going

0:29:28.840 --> 0:29:32.280
<v Speaker 1>to do over the summer months. We got that rally

0:29:32.600 --> 0:29:35.600
<v Speaker 1>off the June lows, and you know, some of it

0:29:35.680 --> 0:29:38.960
<v Speaker 1>was kind of peak Barrish positioning, some of the abatement,

0:29:39.040 --> 0:29:41.720
<v Speaker 1>like you mentioned in terms of commodity prices in particularly

0:29:41.720 --> 0:29:45.719
<v Speaker 1>with gasoline, and then Q two earnings were pretty resilient, right.

0:29:45.720 --> 0:29:48.160
<v Speaker 1>We thought inflation was going to impact a lot more

0:29:48.200 --> 0:29:50.280
<v Speaker 1>than it did. There are a lot of surprises in

0:29:50.360 --> 0:29:53.080
<v Speaker 1>terms of top line revenue growth, and so then I

0:29:53.120 --> 0:29:56.440
<v Speaker 1>think what happened was we started sneaking in these narratives

0:29:56.880 --> 0:29:59.520
<v Speaker 1>the market did about you know, maybe there's a FED pivot,

0:29:59.640 --> 0:30:02.440
<v Speaker 1>maybe the Fed will be devish. We didn't see that.

0:30:02.760 --> 0:30:05.440
<v Speaker 1>At City Global Wealth. We did not see any signs

0:30:05.480 --> 0:30:08.160
<v Speaker 1>that the FED was going to change course, and so

0:30:08.480 --> 0:30:12.320
<v Speaker 1>I think in Jackson Hole, that very short, very deliberate

0:30:12.360 --> 0:30:15.640
<v Speaker 1>speech was one where it was make no mistake about

0:30:15.680 --> 0:30:18.320
<v Speaker 1>the fact that we are going to continue to tighten

0:30:18.880 --> 0:30:22.080
<v Speaker 1>that inflation expectations will not out of control yet, but

0:30:22.160 --> 0:30:23.720
<v Speaker 1>at a level of you know, two and a quarter

0:30:23.800 --> 0:30:26.000
<v Speaker 1>or two and a half looking far out, we need

0:30:26.040 --> 0:30:28.280
<v Speaker 1>to bring them down to two. And our job is

0:30:28.320 --> 0:30:30.360
<v Speaker 1>not yet done. We need to make sure that we're

0:30:30.400 --> 0:30:33.480
<v Speaker 1>taking that action. I think the other interesting thing too,

0:30:33.520 --> 0:30:36.480
<v Speaker 1>that may have been one of the catalysts for the

0:30:36.560 --> 0:30:39.920
<v Speaker 1>volatility that we saw on on Friday and Monday was

0:30:40.560 --> 0:30:46.240
<v Speaker 1>really this lack of mentioning a soft landing. Chair Pal

0:30:46.360 --> 0:30:50.520
<v Speaker 1>in his past couple of speeches and public comments always

0:30:50.520 --> 0:30:53.200
<v Speaker 1>said that a soft landing was possible here that was absent.

0:30:53.400 --> 0:30:57.040
<v Speaker 1>So it was much more about invoking Vulker and also

0:30:57.120 --> 0:30:59.560
<v Speaker 1>just looking at this is going to create some pain,

0:30:59.680 --> 0:31:02.680
<v Speaker 1>and he admitted that. So I think their trajectory is

0:31:02.800 --> 0:31:04.760
<v Speaker 1>very clear through the rest of this year in terms

0:31:04.760 --> 0:31:08.320
<v Speaker 1>of the tightening path that they're on. I think fifty

0:31:08.320 --> 0:31:11.640
<v Speaker 1>plus seventy five plus seventy five plus whatever happens September,

0:31:13.600 --> 0:31:16.960
<v Speaker 1>that's the end. Of the soft landing. He's telling you

0:31:17.120 --> 0:31:20.320
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna really throttle back in order to make sure

0:31:20.360 --> 0:31:23.040
<v Speaker 1>we can get the toothpaste back in the tube. But

0:31:23.200 --> 0:31:27.160
<v Speaker 1>that leads to an interesting question. We're talking about narratives

0:31:27.200 --> 0:31:29.600
<v Speaker 1>and what we hope there's a little bit of wishful

0:31:29.600 --> 0:31:33.080
<v Speaker 1>thinking going on. But you know, my perspective has been

0:31:33.120 --> 0:31:36.120
<v Speaker 1>the FED was late to start raising rates. At the

0:31:36.200 --> 0:31:39.040
<v Speaker 1>very least, they should have gotten off their emergency footing sooner.

0:31:39.640 --> 0:31:42.560
<v Speaker 1>It looks like now they're late to recognize the peak

0:31:42.600 --> 0:31:46.200
<v Speaker 1>and inflation, and they probably don't have to do a

0:31:46.200 --> 0:31:51.200
<v Speaker 1>whole lot more. Are they going to be causing unnecessary pain?

0:31:51.280 --> 0:31:54.360
<v Speaker 1>Have have they already won? Can they declare victory and

0:31:54.400 --> 0:31:57.800
<v Speaker 1>go home? Or are they gonna just keep pounding away? Uh?

0:31:57.840 --> 0:32:01.520
<v Speaker 1>And either cause a mild recession perhaps something worse. Yeah,

0:32:01.560 --> 0:32:03.560
<v Speaker 1>And I think that's one of the challenges in terms

0:32:03.640 --> 0:32:05.880
<v Speaker 1>of you know, this is where economics degrees really come

0:32:05.920 --> 0:32:08.680
<v Speaker 1>in handy in terms of breaking down all of these

0:32:08.880 --> 0:32:12.240
<v Speaker 1>these data points. But they were very specific that their

0:32:12.240 --> 0:32:15.160
<v Speaker 1>goal was, you know, headline inflation. We all talked about

0:32:15.200 --> 0:32:17.680
<v Speaker 1>the demand side of the equation, the supply side, what's

0:32:17.720 --> 0:32:21.240
<v Speaker 1>in their control, what's out of their control, and Chair

0:32:21.280 --> 0:32:24.280
<v Speaker 1>Pal again was very very direct in terms of note,

0:32:24.360 --> 0:32:26.800
<v Speaker 1>the whole thing is our mandate, right, so whether it's

0:32:26.800 --> 0:32:29.040
<v Speaker 1>supply side, demand side, we need to make sure that

0:32:29.080 --> 0:32:31.760
<v Speaker 1>we get this under control. So obviously we're seeing some

0:32:31.840 --> 0:32:35.160
<v Speaker 1>relief in the commodity sector, but more broadly, it's you know,

0:32:35.160 --> 0:32:37.680
<v Speaker 1>whether or not how quickly are we going to see

0:32:37.720 --> 0:32:40.360
<v Speaker 1>that number come down? And even if it's at let's

0:32:40.400 --> 0:32:42.560
<v Speaker 1>say six and a half six percent by your end,

0:32:42.880 --> 0:32:46.000
<v Speaker 1>that's nowhere close right to their ultimate target. And so

0:32:46.080 --> 0:32:48.400
<v Speaker 1>continuing on this path, I think the challenge that the

0:32:48.440 --> 0:32:51.840
<v Speaker 1>FEDS in is when you think of tightening financial conditions,

0:32:52.200 --> 0:32:54.960
<v Speaker 1>we don't see the full impact of that until out

0:32:55.000 --> 0:32:59.200
<v Speaker 1>probably twelve eighteen months, right, So there is this concept

0:32:59.240 --> 0:33:01.560
<v Speaker 1>of what they're doing now is not really going to

0:33:01.680 --> 0:33:04.400
<v Speaker 1>flow through to everyone, both the consumer as well as

0:33:04.440 --> 0:33:07.880
<v Speaker 1>corporations until several months out. And so what does that

0:33:07.960 --> 0:33:10.560
<v Speaker 1>mean for consumer spending? What does that mean for all

0:33:10.560 --> 0:33:12.959
<v Speaker 1>of the decisions that the consumer is making, which drives

0:33:14.200 --> 0:33:16.560
<v Speaker 1>of the the U S economy? And what does it

0:33:16.640 --> 0:33:19.520
<v Speaker 1>mean for corporations as they're making decisions? And so in

0:33:19.720 --> 0:33:22.240
<v Speaker 1>Q two we heard a lot that recession wasn't the

0:33:22.280 --> 0:33:25.080
<v Speaker 1>base case, but they're they're planning. I think it's going

0:33:25.120 --> 0:33:27.280
<v Speaker 1>to be really fascinating. I think we're going to pivot

0:33:27.480 --> 0:33:32.160
<v Speaker 1>from I shouldn't use that term pivot become a dirty word.

0:33:33.400 --> 0:33:37.080
<v Speaker 1>I think we're going to change the dialogue from what

0:33:37.160 --> 0:33:40.280
<v Speaker 1>was obsessive about the FED and debate about what they're

0:33:40.280 --> 0:33:43.000
<v Speaker 1>going to do and what is the terminal FED funds rate?

0:33:43.280 --> 0:33:46.240
<v Speaker 1>To now obsession about earnings. And I think we're really

0:33:46.240 --> 0:33:49.640
<v Speaker 1>going to focus on where are we seeing that squeeze,

0:33:49.640 --> 0:33:52.560
<v Speaker 1>where are we seeing that change in consumer spending patterns,

0:33:52.560 --> 0:33:55.720
<v Speaker 1>how are companies preparing for this, and what companies are

0:33:55.760 --> 0:33:58.920
<v Speaker 1>well prepared for what is going to be We say,

0:33:58.960 --> 0:34:02.320
<v Speaker 1>don't fight the FED, and it's easy monetary conditions, maybe

0:34:02.360 --> 0:34:05.560
<v Speaker 1>we shouldn't fight the FED when it's very clearly tighter financially.

0:34:05.800 --> 0:34:08.280
<v Speaker 1>So you raise a whole bunch of really interesting points

0:34:08.280 --> 0:34:12.280
<v Speaker 1>I want to pin you down on. First. Do investors

0:34:12.440 --> 0:34:14.960
<v Speaker 1>pay too much attention to the FED? Do they obsess

0:34:15.480 --> 0:34:18.600
<v Speaker 1>when really they should be looking past it a year out?

0:34:19.400 --> 0:34:22.080
<v Speaker 1>It's hard to say that definitively right. Because interest rates

0:34:22.080 --> 0:34:24.759
<v Speaker 1>are important, liquidity is important. The concept of a FED

0:34:24.840 --> 0:34:28.040
<v Speaker 1>put was really important in terms of the overall directions,

0:34:28.120 --> 0:34:32.719
<v Speaker 1>so it absolutely impacts the economy and markets. I think

0:34:32.719 --> 0:34:35.400
<v Speaker 1>paying too much attention to the day over day moves

0:34:36.120 --> 0:34:38.359
<v Speaker 1>is something and this is interesting Verry. I think this

0:34:38.440 --> 0:34:41.439
<v Speaker 1>is something that we actually saw starting with COVID, once

0:34:41.480 --> 0:34:44.399
<v Speaker 1>we've shifted to that work from home, stay at home

0:34:45.280 --> 0:34:49.640
<v Speaker 1>and just massive spike and volatility, massive movements in the market.

0:34:50.120 --> 0:34:52.120
<v Speaker 1>I think we've gotten into a little bit paying a

0:34:52.160 --> 0:34:55.000
<v Speaker 1>lot of attention to day over day movements, what does

0:34:55.040 --> 0:34:57.799
<v Speaker 1>this day mean? And even if we take you know,

0:34:57.920 --> 0:35:01.520
<v Speaker 1>the summer months, liquidity is like people are on vacation,

0:35:01.560 --> 0:35:06.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, credence to one day and really trying to

0:35:06.120 --> 0:35:08.480
<v Speaker 1>take that view. It doesn't need to be out five years,

0:35:08.560 --> 0:35:11.000
<v Speaker 1>but trying to take that view out several months. And

0:35:11.080 --> 0:35:14.080
<v Speaker 1>so I think we're seeing a lot of investors really

0:35:14.080 --> 0:35:17.720
<v Speaker 1>hanging on the word of every speech, every day, daily report.

0:35:17.960 --> 0:35:19.880
<v Speaker 1>And I think on average, yep, we're going to have

0:35:20.200 --> 0:35:22.000
<v Speaker 1>jobs reports that are important, We're gonna have cp I

0:35:22.040 --> 0:35:24.800
<v Speaker 1>and prints that are important. But really it's the amalgamation

0:35:24.840 --> 0:35:27.200
<v Speaker 1>of all of these things that's going to determine how

0:35:27.239 --> 0:35:29.960
<v Speaker 1>severe the recession is and the ultimate trajectory of markets

0:35:30.000 --> 0:35:32.600
<v Speaker 1>from here, going from zero percentage of strate to four

0:35:32.640 --> 0:35:36.560
<v Speaker 1>percentage of st rate obviously important, but it feels like

0:35:36.680 --> 0:35:40.080
<v Speaker 1>every CPI report it hits the tape and then people

0:35:40.120 --> 0:35:42.680
<v Speaker 1>are already talking about the following month, where you know,

0:35:42.880 --> 0:35:44.880
<v Speaker 1>in in July, it's like, is this going to be

0:35:44.920 --> 0:35:48.000
<v Speaker 1>the peak? It was barely crossing the tape, and then

0:35:48.040 --> 0:35:50.680
<v Speaker 1>suddenly August and September, chef, and we're going to see

0:35:50.680 --> 0:35:52.960
<v Speaker 1>the same thing happen in September as soon as we

0:35:53.040 --> 0:35:55.280
<v Speaker 1>get that print, people and to stop talking about October.

0:35:55.640 --> 0:35:57.839
<v Speaker 1>The next question that you alluded to, which is really

0:35:57.880 --> 0:36:03.960
<v Speaker 1>interesting about revenue you and profits, how solid and inflation

0:36:04.040 --> 0:36:08.880
<v Speaker 1>hedge our equities. Revenues seem to be unaffected. Profits have

0:36:08.920 --> 0:36:12.280
<v Speaker 1>been pretty strong, and companies have shown a pretty solid

0:36:12.320 --> 0:36:15.840
<v Speaker 1>ability to pass along UH input costs to their to

0:36:16.040 --> 0:36:19.120
<v Speaker 1>ultimately to the consumer. Do we should we be looking

0:36:19.160 --> 0:36:22.359
<v Speaker 1>at stocks as an inflation hedge? Yeah, so I think

0:36:22.400 --> 0:36:26.960
<v Speaker 1>this is to your earlier question about US investors thinking

0:36:27.000 --> 0:36:29.800
<v Speaker 1>through some of these risks. Inflation really hasn't been a

0:36:29.880 --> 0:36:32.279
<v Speaker 1>risk that we've had to think about for quite some time, right,

0:36:32.360 --> 0:36:37.240
<v Speaker 1>so obviously absent the seventies and eighties, thinking of this

0:36:37.440 --> 0:36:40.319
<v Speaker 1>level of inflation is not someone someone's had to think

0:36:40.320 --> 0:36:42.640
<v Speaker 1>about and the idea of what is the real real

0:36:42.719 --> 0:36:45.000
<v Speaker 1>rate of return? What is the real interest rate on this?

0:36:45.440 --> 0:36:47.600
<v Speaker 1>And so if you were someone who was sitting in cash,

0:36:47.960 --> 0:36:50.040
<v Speaker 1>let's say from like two thousand to two thousand ten,

0:36:50.640 --> 0:36:52.600
<v Speaker 1>you were earning on a real basis about three percent

0:36:52.719 --> 0:36:55.040
<v Speaker 1>per annum, not knocking it out of the park, but

0:36:55.120 --> 0:36:59.400
<v Speaker 1>not terrible. And the market when essentially didn't get above

0:36:59.480 --> 0:37:03.600
<v Speaker 1>two thou us until exactly And so I think that

0:37:04.000 --> 0:37:06.640
<v Speaker 1>now looking at this past decade, where you've seen that

0:37:06.719 --> 0:37:09.640
<v Speaker 1>impact and now you're just seeing it front and center

0:37:09.719 --> 0:37:12.560
<v Speaker 1>in terms of eight and a half percent, is extreme

0:37:12.800 --> 0:37:14.760
<v Speaker 1>and in terms of what that means from a spending

0:37:14.760 --> 0:37:17.759
<v Speaker 1>standpoint as well as what it means from an investment standpoint.

0:37:17.960 --> 0:37:20.840
<v Speaker 1>And so this becomes the question around how do I create,

0:37:20.840 --> 0:37:23.720
<v Speaker 1>depending upon how I'm currently positioned, how do I create

0:37:23.800 --> 0:37:26.560
<v Speaker 1>better outcomes? So if you're someone who has been hiding

0:37:26.600 --> 0:37:29.879
<v Speaker 1>a little bit in cash, maybe overweight cash for not

0:37:29.960 --> 0:37:32.600
<v Speaker 1>just the past two years, but the past ten years,

0:37:33.040 --> 0:37:35.160
<v Speaker 1>that's that conversation. But how do we get to marginally

0:37:35.200 --> 0:37:38.000
<v Speaker 1>better outcomes? How do we add things like COMMUNI bonds,

0:37:38.000 --> 0:37:40.359
<v Speaker 1>how do we add things even like preferreds in terms

0:37:40.440 --> 0:37:43.320
<v Speaker 1>of some of the yields that we're seeing in preferreds

0:37:43.520 --> 0:37:47.160
<v Speaker 1>for investors. Because I recognize that, Barry, if we're thinking of,

0:37:47.200 --> 0:37:49.839
<v Speaker 1>like what are the best hedges against inflation, well, if

0:37:49.840 --> 0:37:52.000
<v Speaker 1>we go through the highest beta, it's almost like you

0:37:52.000 --> 0:37:55.719
<v Speaker 1>can break it down as commodities direct commodity exposure. A

0:37:55.719 --> 0:37:58.160
<v Speaker 1>lot of individual investors are not going to take that on,

0:37:58.520 --> 0:38:01.720
<v Speaker 1>so then you're looking at commodity stocks. Are there opportunities

0:38:01.719 --> 0:38:06.520
<v Speaker 1>within energy commodity stocks. We actually had positions within commodity

0:38:06.640 --> 0:38:09.440
<v Speaker 1>stocks um for a period of time as a hedge

0:38:09.560 --> 0:38:12.000
<v Speaker 1>as a portion of the portfolio, not as a directional

0:38:12.400 --> 0:38:14.919
<v Speaker 1>that at all, but we we pulled back on those

0:38:14.960 --> 0:38:17.879
<v Speaker 1>positions just given some of the turnover that we've seen,

0:38:17.960 --> 0:38:21.759
<v Speaker 1>particularly with the giant spike from last year plus once

0:38:21.800 --> 0:38:26.480
<v Speaker 1>the invasion in Ukraine started in February, hedging right like,

0:38:26.560 --> 0:38:29.440
<v Speaker 1>you needed that hedging because it wasn't just impacting energy,

0:38:29.520 --> 0:38:33.120
<v Speaker 1>was impacting food, it was impacting natural resources. We saw

0:38:33.160 --> 0:38:37.160
<v Speaker 1>that concentrated exposure right with the the stats that came

0:38:37.160 --> 0:38:40.319
<v Speaker 1>out that of the world's wheat production, and you saw

0:38:40.360 --> 0:38:42.480
<v Speaker 1>these were coming out of Russia and the Ukraine. Things

0:38:42.520 --> 0:38:46.120
<v Speaker 1>we never never knew before. And so getting to your

0:38:46.200 --> 0:38:50.719
<v Speaker 1>question about equities, were were positioned right now? Equities absolutely

0:38:50.800 --> 0:38:54.759
<v Speaker 1>can conserve um um an important part in the portfolio.

0:38:54.880 --> 0:38:57.480
<v Speaker 1>But given the concerns that I have as to where

0:38:57.520 --> 0:39:00.640
<v Speaker 1>the US is right now, US equities we're not pricing

0:39:00.680 --> 0:39:03.080
<v Speaker 1>in a recession right now, We're not pricing in a

0:39:03.120 --> 0:39:09.120
<v Speaker 1>meaningful earnings contraction or tightening financial conditions impacting companies, and

0:39:09.160 --> 0:39:13.480
<v Speaker 1>so we're we're invested is in quality in um. If

0:39:13.480 --> 0:39:17.000
<v Speaker 1>you look at like the Spend Aristocrats Index, you're talking

0:39:17.040 --> 0:39:20.440
<v Speaker 1>about companies, not high dividend pairs, but companies that have

0:39:20.520 --> 0:39:23.560
<v Speaker 1>been able to consistently grow to their dividends, consistently grow

0:39:23.600 --> 0:39:26.560
<v Speaker 1>their earnings. And so looking at the yields on that

0:39:26.800 --> 0:39:30.280
<v Speaker 1>around three three and a half percent, and diversification across

0:39:30.280 --> 0:39:33.360
<v Speaker 1>sectors like healthcare, even info tech is in there because

0:39:33.640 --> 0:39:35.799
<v Speaker 1>you know, you have some infotech companies that are now

0:39:35.960 --> 0:39:38.839
<v Speaker 1>durable demand. That's the part of the market we're from

0:39:38.880 --> 0:39:43.719
<v Speaker 1>an equity standpoint, we're very comfortable maintaining that exposure. So

0:39:43.840 --> 0:39:46.839
<v Speaker 1>you said something there that I'm intrigued by. Do you

0:39:46.880 --> 0:39:50.680
<v Speaker 1>believe markets are pricing in a recession or a market's

0:39:50.760 --> 0:39:54.520
<v Speaker 1>just pricing in a slowdown of the growth, a little

0:39:54.560 --> 0:39:58.520
<v Speaker 1>bit of the FED having some bite, but not necessarily

0:39:58.600 --> 0:40:02.160
<v Speaker 1>causing a full blown traction. I don't think they're pricing

0:40:02.160 --> 0:40:05.399
<v Speaker 1>in a recession or earnings contraction right now. I'm not

0:40:05.520 --> 0:40:08.319
<v Speaker 1>saying that we're going to see substantial downside from here.

0:40:08.320 --> 0:40:10.480
<v Speaker 1>There's a lot of debates right about what are we

0:40:10.600 --> 0:40:13.439
<v Speaker 1>going to retest those lows? So so let's put put

0:40:13.440 --> 0:40:15.839
<v Speaker 1>a little framework on what we're talking about. If people

0:40:15.880 --> 0:40:19.120
<v Speaker 1>are listening to this in the future. Um, it's late

0:40:19.120 --> 0:40:24.880
<v Speaker 1>in the summer in markets sold off, recovered about half

0:40:24.920 --> 0:40:27.640
<v Speaker 1>of those losses, then gave a little bit of that

0:40:27.680 --> 0:40:31.920
<v Speaker 1>back after Jackson Hole, so down ten or so on

0:40:31.960 --> 0:40:35.560
<v Speaker 1>the SMP. Not really pricing in a hole. And when

0:40:35.560 --> 0:40:39.439
<v Speaker 1>you look at those analyzes of recessionary bear markets versus

0:40:39.520 --> 0:40:43.880
<v Speaker 1>non recessionary bear markets, it's a huge difference both in

0:40:43.960 --> 0:40:46.759
<v Speaker 1>terms of the duration, right so you tend to see

0:40:47.280 --> 0:40:49.640
<v Speaker 1>recessionary and it depends on what data points you use,

0:40:49.719 --> 0:40:53.879
<v Speaker 1>but again on its duration, it's a big difference. Where

0:40:53.880 --> 0:40:57.799
<v Speaker 1>you see, you know, the duration in non recessionary bear

0:40:57.880 --> 0:41:01.520
<v Speaker 1>markets on average about a hundred eight days maybe max.

0:41:01.560 --> 0:41:05.000
<v Speaker 1>Some of those max observations around two right, so well

0:41:05.080 --> 0:41:08.799
<v Speaker 1>under well under a year where recessionary bear markets are

0:41:08.920 --> 0:41:12.160
<v Speaker 1>four hundred, So that that's a that's a big difference.

0:41:12.480 --> 0:41:15.480
<v Speaker 1>And also the draw downs if we're using US equities,

0:41:15.920 --> 0:41:20.080
<v Speaker 1>non recessionary bear markets down around so yea, we may

0:41:20.080 --> 0:41:23.839
<v Speaker 1>have done that work, but recessionary bear markets can be

0:41:23.920 --> 0:41:27.240
<v Speaker 1>an excess of thirty percent and even closer to depending

0:41:27.280 --> 0:41:30.439
<v Speaker 1>upon what data set you're using. So it is very

0:41:30.520 --> 0:41:35.919
<v Speaker 1>different when companies are making tough decisions about where they're investing, right,

0:41:36.080 --> 0:41:41.000
<v Speaker 1>and how they're investing, and how that impacts obviously wages, employment,

0:41:41.080 --> 0:41:44.080
<v Speaker 1>et cetera. So what we've seen with the you know,

0:41:44.160 --> 0:41:47.360
<v Speaker 1>the two negative quarters of GDP growth, a lot of

0:41:47.360 --> 0:41:50.200
<v Speaker 1>people say, well, that's a technical recession, and then again

0:41:50.239 --> 0:41:52.640
<v Speaker 1>all of our economic students are like, no, there's the

0:41:52.719 --> 0:41:56.120
<v Speaker 1>National Buro of Economic Research and this is how it's calculated.

0:41:56.400 --> 0:41:59.719
<v Speaker 1>But we're looking at that in terms of you'd have

0:41:59.760 --> 0:42:03.239
<v Speaker 1>to some significant increase in the unemployment rate and you're

0:42:03.280 --> 0:42:05.399
<v Speaker 1>going to have to see that earnings contraction. And so

0:42:06.120 --> 0:42:10.240
<v Speaker 1>do we anticipate here's here's I'm gonna I'm gonna share

0:42:10.280 --> 0:42:14.800
<v Speaker 1>some positive news, right, So that was that was very cautionary.

0:42:14.840 --> 0:42:17.319
<v Speaker 1>But I think one of the positive things is we

0:42:17.360 --> 0:42:21.520
<v Speaker 1>haven't had a recession that has been this anticipated either,

0:42:22.040 --> 0:42:25.560
<v Speaker 1>so whether the markets pricing it in or not, consumers

0:42:25.560 --> 0:42:28.879
<v Speaker 1>are planning for it, corporations are planning for it. This

0:42:28.960 --> 0:42:31.279
<v Speaker 1>is not something that's coming out of left field. The

0:42:31.280 --> 0:42:34.319
<v Speaker 1>FED is clear about their trajectory. So in terms of

0:42:34.360 --> 0:42:38.520
<v Speaker 1>taking some of those decisions and mitigating the depth and

0:42:38.600 --> 0:42:42.520
<v Speaker 1>duration of that. Recessions are painful, right, but the depth

0:42:42.520 --> 0:42:46.200
<v Speaker 1>and duration of that economic pain, hopefully that can be mitigated.

0:42:46.520 --> 0:42:49.799
<v Speaker 1>Let's stick with that, because that's really interesting. I'm gonna

0:42:49.840 --> 0:42:52.560
<v Speaker 1>preface what I'm gonna ask you with with a caveat,

0:42:52.640 --> 0:42:58.640
<v Speaker 1>so heading into there's surely we're pockets of froth. Crypto

0:42:58.840 --> 0:43:05.680
<v Speaker 1>had gone, ballistic technology had exploded. Anytime the smpup. Hey,

0:43:05.760 --> 0:43:10.319
<v Speaker 1>there's probably a little bit of speculation going on. But

0:43:10.840 --> 0:43:14.759
<v Speaker 1>given all that, the first half of this year, the

0:43:14.880 --> 0:43:18.880
<v Speaker 1>data and just the general field wasn't like consumers and

0:43:18.920 --> 0:43:22.360
<v Speaker 1>companies were leaning too far out over their skis. Everybody's

0:43:22.400 --> 0:43:26.080
<v Speaker 1>balance sheets were pretty clean. They had refinanced at very

0:43:26.120 --> 0:43:29.200
<v Speaker 1>low rates. It looked like both the household and the

0:43:29.239 --> 0:43:32.919
<v Speaker 1>business sector. Hey, if things slow down they're pretty well

0:43:32.960 --> 0:43:36.080
<v Speaker 1>prepared for this, or am I oversimplified? I think you're right.

0:43:36.160 --> 0:43:41.319
<v Speaker 1>I think you're absolutely right that on average, the average company,

0:43:41.400 --> 0:43:45.799
<v Speaker 1>average consumer came into this year in pretty good shape. Right.

0:43:45.840 --> 0:43:48.359
<v Speaker 1>Their balance sheets were very strong. I'm saying they're both

0:43:48.400 --> 0:43:51.600
<v Speaker 1>across companies and consumers. They were able to take advantage

0:43:51.600 --> 0:43:53.759
<v Speaker 1>of the low interest rate environment to really kind of

0:43:53.760 --> 0:43:57.879
<v Speaker 1>clean up liabilities. And so I think that we came

0:43:57.920 --> 0:44:02.200
<v Speaker 1>into this year prepared, um from a balance sheet perspective,

0:44:02.239 --> 0:44:05.240
<v Speaker 1>not prepared for what was then going to transpire. Yeah,

0:44:05.320 --> 0:44:08.439
<v Speaker 1>in terms of not only that quick movement and interest rates.

0:44:08.440 --> 0:44:10.960
<v Speaker 1>Remember in January that was the story, the kind of

0:44:11.160 --> 0:44:14.800
<v Speaker 1>very quick movement and interest rates, and then obviously geopolitics

0:44:14.800 --> 0:44:18.160
<v Speaker 1>and Russia's war in the Ukraine um really exacerbating some

0:44:18.200 --> 0:44:20.959
<v Speaker 1>of those supply shocks. And so I just think that

0:44:21.560 --> 0:44:26.600
<v Speaker 1>those types of risks and the overall prospect of what

0:44:26.680 --> 0:44:30.239
<v Speaker 1>that means from a recession standpoint, it's better to be

0:44:30.320 --> 0:44:32.880
<v Speaker 1>in that position, right, is better to be in that position.

0:44:32.880 --> 0:44:35.920
<v Speaker 1>We're coming into it from a place of strength, and

0:44:36.000 --> 0:44:38.120
<v Speaker 1>you are starting to see some cracks, right, So let's

0:44:38.120 --> 0:44:42.000
<v Speaker 1>talk about the cracks inventories building, right, That's that's probably

0:44:42.960 --> 0:44:45.720
<v Speaker 1>from hey, we can't get anything, let's just get everything.

0:44:45.760 --> 0:44:48.880
<v Speaker 1>Now we're seeing a massive inventory build. We're seeing housing

0:44:48.920 --> 0:44:51.440
<v Speaker 1>starts come down. We're seeing just the time right that

0:44:51.520 --> 0:44:56.120
<v Speaker 1>homes are on the market and extending. You're starting to

0:44:56.120 --> 0:44:58.840
<v Speaker 1>see that. But that's also good in terms of showing

0:44:58.880 --> 0:45:01.719
<v Speaker 1>some of that froth being taken out of the the

0:45:01.760 --> 0:45:04.719
<v Speaker 1>economy and and some of that that slowed down. I

0:45:04.719 --> 0:45:06.120
<v Speaker 1>think some of the things that we need to keep

0:45:06.160 --> 0:45:10.319
<v Speaker 1>an eye on just from a the impact of the

0:45:10.320 --> 0:45:14.320
<v Speaker 1>FEDS tightening is a couple of things. One, we also

0:45:14.360 --> 0:45:17.719
<v Speaker 1>saw record number of credit card openings and Q one

0:45:17.960 --> 0:45:21.200
<v Speaker 1>and Q two, and so some of the stats um

0:45:21.239 --> 0:45:23.640
<v Speaker 1>that we've seen. Q one of this year was a

0:45:23.719 --> 0:45:29.600
<v Speaker 1>record number two million new credit card issuances. And so

0:45:29.640 --> 0:45:32.920
<v Speaker 1>on one hand, people like consumers are continuing to spend YEP,

0:45:33.000 --> 0:45:36.799
<v Speaker 1>they're continuing to spend. We're reaching pre pandemic levels in

0:45:36.920 --> 0:45:40.799
<v Speaker 1>terms of balances on credit cards. We're not going above that,

0:45:40.840 --> 0:45:43.719
<v Speaker 1>we're just pre pandemic level relative to income. It's you

0:45:43.760 --> 0:45:46.840
<v Speaker 1>know that always people always show you the debt, but

0:45:46.960 --> 0:45:49.160
<v Speaker 1>they sometimes fail to show you what does the debt

0:45:49.200 --> 0:45:52.640
<v Speaker 1>look like relative to discretionary income? That's a really good

0:45:52.719 --> 0:45:54.959
<v Speaker 1>levels and a very good levels. But when you see

0:45:55.360 --> 0:45:58.040
<v Speaker 1>so it's interesting because then you see these trends. Okay,

0:45:58.040 --> 0:46:01.120
<v Speaker 1>we're opening more and more credit cards. Okay, interesting, how

0:46:01.120 --> 0:46:04.239
<v Speaker 1>are people than spending Previously it was stimulus, right, there

0:46:04.320 --> 0:46:07.279
<v Speaker 1>was stimulus fueling the economy, and now it's okay, now

0:46:07.280 --> 0:46:09.560
<v Speaker 1>I'm buying on credit. That's not the end of the world, right,

0:46:09.600 --> 0:46:13.879
<v Speaker 1>that is access to capital. But when we see those

0:46:13.880 --> 0:46:17.359
<v Speaker 1>balances increase, and now they're increasing at higher interest rates,

0:46:17.800 --> 0:46:20.200
<v Speaker 1>that's something that we want to watch and keep an

0:46:20.200 --> 0:46:22.160
<v Speaker 1>eye on. And obviously in Q two a lot of

0:46:22.200 --> 0:46:25.120
<v Speaker 1>financials reported and they talked about lone loss reserves very

0:46:25.120 --> 0:46:28.399
<v Speaker 1>well in check, very healthy, and so I think that's

0:46:28.440 --> 0:46:30.000
<v Speaker 1>a trend that we need to keep on eye on.

0:46:30.200 --> 0:46:32.759
<v Speaker 1>The same thing when it comes to corporations. Right, so

0:46:32.800 --> 0:46:36.920
<v Speaker 1>when we think about credit spreads in the market, and

0:46:36.960 --> 0:46:39.239
<v Speaker 1>we look at high yield spreads, we look at we

0:46:39.320 --> 0:46:42.640
<v Speaker 1>haven't really seen that widen out. And if that does

0:46:42.760 --> 0:46:45.480
<v Speaker 1>widen out, right, it's widened a little bit buried, to

0:46:45.480 --> 0:46:48.520
<v Speaker 1>be fair, but it hasn't really to this level of Okay,

0:46:48.520 --> 0:46:52.000
<v Speaker 1>we're really going to see companies stretched. Those are some

0:46:52.120 --> 0:46:55.600
<v Speaker 1>areas that could create some continued pain in the market.

0:46:55.840 --> 0:46:59.520
<v Speaker 1>So you sit in a really unique perch, your reference

0:46:59.600 --> 0:47:03.759
<v Speaker 1>to all of the new credit card openings. You at

0:47:03.840 --> 0:47:08.480
<v Speaker 1>City also get, which is a giant credit card entity.

0:47:09.840 --> 0:47:15.520
<v Speaker 1>You get to see delinquencies, delays, default, all all those

0:47:15.560 --> 0:47:19.520
<v Speaker 1>sorts of things. How do you manage to tap into

0:47:19.880 --> 0:47:23.239
<v Speaker 1>that huge amount of data that you have? Can you

0:47:23.320 --> 0:47:26.200
<v Speaker 1>crunch those numbers and use it for your own benefit?

0:47:26.200 --> 0:47:30.040
<v Speaker 1>Because who better than someone at one of the nation's

0:47:30.040 --> 0:47:34.000
<v Speaker 1>biggest credit card issuers to look at those numbers and say, hey,

0:47:34.040 --> 0:47:37.480
<v Speaker 1>what are we seeing internally before it hits BLS or

0:47:37.560 --> 0:47:40.880
<v Speaker 1>commerce department. Yeah, so any data that we have obviously

0:47:40.920 --> 0:47:45.360
<v Speaker 1>as a large financial yeah, large financial institution, there's obviously walls,

0:47:45.440 --> 0:47:47.920
<v Speaker 1>there's data that can be shared, data that cannot be shared,

0:47:47.960 --> 0:47:51.600
<v Speaker 1>and there's a lot of protection around that. However, when

0:47:51.600 --> 0:47:53.960
<v Speaker 1>we look at things like like flows, right, and we

0:47:54.000 --> 0:47:56.640
<v Speaker 1>can see average cash balances that our clients have, are

0:47:56.680 --> 0:47:59.800
<v Speaker 1>they building cash balances? Are they taking more risk in

0:47:59.840 --> 0:48:02.560
<v Speaker 1>the market? So all of those trends and insights that

0:48:02.640 --> 0:48:05.279
<v Speaker 1>we get from our clients are critically important in terms

0:48:05.320 --> 0:48:07.720
<v Speaker 1>of the pulse of the economy as well as the markets,

0:48:07.719 --> 0:48:10.320
<v Speaker 1>and so yes, we we pay a lot of attention

0:48:10.360 --> 0:48:13.359
<v Speaker 1>not only to what we think right, what we think

0:48:13.400 --> 0:48:15.600
<v Speaker 1>is going to happen in the economy and markets, but

0:48:15.640 --> 0:48:18.200
<v Speaker 1>those signs that we're getting from our investors, what's actually

0:48:18.239 --> 0:48:20.960
<v Speaker 1>occur on our clients at large exactly, And it's a

0:48:21.000 --> 0:48:22.920
<v Speaker 1>really important thing. We always think about that. On the

0:48:22.920 --> 0:48:25.239
<v Speaker 1>institutional side in terms of flows, a lot of people

0:48:25.280 --> 0:48:28.480
<v Speaker 1>are measuring every single day, right, But that's something that

0:48:28.520 --> 0:48:32.080
<v Speaker 1>you can see within private wealth as well, and it's significant.

0:48:32.160 --> 0:48:35.640
<v Speaker 1>It can move the market really interesting. So let's talk

0:48:35.680 --> 0:48:38.120
<v Speaker 1>a little bit about the current environment in the past

0:48:38.560 --> 0:48:43.120
<v Speaker 1>couple of years, starting with the pandemic. How did that

0:48:43.200 --> 0:48:46.960
<v Speaker 1>affect clients? Did they react to the volatility? What what

0:48:47.040 --> 0:48:49.319
<v Speaker 1>sort of questions did you get? So I think we

0:48:49.320 --> 0:48:51.399
<v Speaker 1>could break it down into two different parts. How did

0:48:51.400 --> 0:48:54.720
<v Speaker 1>it impact us and how did it impact clients? Because

0:48:55.480 --> 0:48:57.879
<v Speaker 1>at that moment in time, Barry I was running our

0:48:57.920 --> 0:49:00.800
<v Speaker 1>capital markets division in the America as North America, in

0:49:00.880 --> 0:49:05.320
<v Speaker 1>Latin America, and I remember March, there was no thought

0:49:05.320 --> 0:49:07.200
<v Speaker 1>in our mind that we were going to work from home,

0:49:07.680 --> 0:49:11.200
<v Speaker 1>working on a trading floor, trading desk. This idea that

0:49:11.200 --> 0:49:13.440
<v Speaker 1>you were going to somehow mobilize and be able to

0:49:13.480 --> 0:49:17.440
<v Speaker 1>take an organization of dozens of people and somehow figure

0:49:17.480 --> 0:49:20.440
<v Speaker 1>out how to work from home. Um. So I was

0:49:20.480 --> 0:49:23.160
<v Speaker 1>one of those people that definitely left kicking and screaming,

0:49:23.200 --> 0:49:25.799
<v Speaker 1>eyes like I can stay here, I can still work

0:49:25.840 --> 0:49:29.040
<v Speaker 1>from here. I remember someone saying, don't worry, it'll be

0:49:29.080 --> 0:49:30.840
<v Speaker 1>a week or two, you'll be back in the We

0:49:30.880 --> 0:49:32.839
<v Speaker 1>all thought that, right, We we all thought that it

0:49:32.920 --> 0:49:37.240
<v Speaker 1>was maybe a month, maybe three months max. And so um,

0:49:37.280 --> 0:49:39.520
<v Speaker 1>but we did it right. We had to. We were

0:49:39.560 --> 0:49:41.600
<v Speaker 1>doing at that moment in time at City. We had

0:49:41.640 --> 0:49:44.280
<v Speaker 1>the contingency plans, we had people working on different days

0:49:44.360 --> 0:49:47.840
<v Speaker 1>and continuity of business sites. And then we got the

0:49:47.840 --> 0:49:49.719
<v Speaker 1>phone call that no, we need to find a way

0:49:49.760 --> 0:49:53.040
<v Speaker 1>to move everyone to work from home and that that

0:49:53.120 --> 0:49:56.000
<v Speaker 1>continuity that was all set up post nine eleven. I

0:49:56.360 --> 0:49:58.840
<v Speaker 1>think a lot of people don't realize one of the

0:49:59.200 --> 0:50:03.759
<v Speaker 1>few good things that had come out of our you know,

0:50:03.880 --> 0:50:07.919
<v Speaker 1>closing of the stock markets for a week, and everybody realized, oh,

0:50:08.120 --> 0:50:10.759
<v Speaker 1>we have to have a plan being in case something

0:50:10.800 --> 0:50:13.480
<v Speaker 1>like this ever happens again. We have different sites exactly.

0:50:13.520 --> 0:50:15.720
<v Speaker 1>So we have one in New Jersey where we can

0:50:15.760 --> 0:50:17.680
<v Speaker 1>recreate and it's part of your job, right, you do

0:50:17.719 --> 0:50:21.000
<v Speaker 1>the continuity of business testing, and so that was helpful.

0:50:21.000 --> 0:50:22.400
<v Speaker 1>But then it was you know what, we need to

0:50:22.440 --> 0:50:26.280
<v Speaker 1>have everyone work from home, and so it was um

0:50:26.320 --> 0:50:28.400
<v Speaker 1>a mad rush to be able to make that happen.

0:50:28.480 --> 0:50:30.920
<v Speaker 1>And I think we all learned a lot about our technology.

0:50:30.960 --> 0:50:35.520
<v Speaker 1>We learned a lot about phone lines, phone lines, and

0:50:35.520 --> 0:50:38.279
<v Speaker 1>and how to to make sure that every call was

0:50:38.320 --> 0:50:40.640
<v Speaker 1>going to be answered because you couple not only that

0:50:41.040 --> 0:50:44.200
<v Speaker 1>with one of the most volatile markets in history, and

0:50:44.200 --> 0:50:46.200
<v Speaker 1>so you're like, the one thing that we can't fail

0:50:46.239 --> 0:50:48.200
<v Speaker 1>to do is help our clients if they need to

0:50:48.200 --> 0:50:50.600
<v Speaker 1>get out of risk, if they need to sell, we

0:50:50.640 --> 0:50:53.120
<v Speaker 1>want to make sure that we're able to answer those

0:50:53.120 --> 0:50:56.799
<v Speaker 1>calls and help them out. And so we were very fortunate. Um,

0:50:56.840 --> 0:50:59.799
<v Speaker 1>looking back on it, I think everyone has those surreal experiences,

0:51:00.080 --> 0:51:01.960
<v Speaker 1>right that you don't even know how many hours you

0:51:02.040 --> 0:51:05.840
<v Speaker 1>worked or what was happening, or your kids doing virtual

0:51:05.920 --> 0:51:08.399
<v Speaker 1>school next to you while you're trying to manage this,

0:51:08.440 --> 0:51:11.840
<v Speaker 1>And so I think we we really helped our clients

0:51:11.840 --> 0:51:14.719
<v Speaker 1>through that that period of time because this wasn't like

0:51:14.760 --> 0:51:17.719
<v Speaker 1>any other market correction, right, this was a once in

0:51:17.760 --> 0:51:22.480
<v Speaker 1>a hundred year pandemic down less than six weeks. You've

0:51:22.520 --> 0:51:26.000
<v Speaker 1>never seen anything like that before. We never is the

0:51:26.040 --> 0:51:29.240
<v Speaker 1>closest thing, and that was really more plumbing than anything.

0:51:29.600 --> 0:51:31.960
<v Speaker 1>And so one of the things that we did um

0:51:32.200 --> 0:51:35.239
<v Speaker 1>was we started communicating more frequently with our clients. And

0:51:35.320 --> 0:51:39.239
<v Speaker 1>so our chief investment officer and our chief investment strategist

0:51:39.880 --> 0:51:42.479
<v Speaker 1>we all got together and decided that this was something

0:51:42.520 --> 0:51:45.040
<v Speaker 1>we need to communicate to our clients every week as

0:51:45.080 --> 0:51:47.160
<v Speaker 1>to what's going on, and so we continue to do

0:51:47.200 --> 0:51:49.959
<v Speaker 1>this to this day. We we published once a week

0:51:50.040 --> 0:51:52.400
<v Speaker 1>breaking down what's happened in the markets, what's happened in

0:51:52.400 --> 0:51:55.200
<v Speaker 1>the economy, how people should be thinking about their portfolios.

0:51:55.600 --> 0:52:00.319
<v Speaker 1>And then we do a weekly webcast every Thursday say things.

0:52:00.400 --> 0:52:02.319
<v Speaker 1>Some people they like to read it, some people liked

0:52:02.400 --> 0:52:06.279
<v Speaker 1>the live interaction, but people were craving that information. How

0:52:06.280 --> 0:52:08.040
<v Speaker 1>should I think about this? How should I think about

0:52:08.040 --> 0:52:12.000
<v Speaker 1>what's next? And so that frequency of communication and having

0:52:12.040 --> 0:52:15.399
<v Speaker 1>that access to information and how to think about how

0:52:15.440 --> 0:52:18.399
<v Speaker 1>you should be positioned and staying the course right, because

0:52:18.400 --> 0:52:21.480
<v Speaker 1>that's the most difficult challenge. And when you see those

0:52:21.520 --> 0:52:26.880
<v Speaker 1>severe drawdowns human psychology and all of our heuristic biases

0:52:27.040 --> 0:52:30.400
<v Speaker 1>right that come into play. As you're seeing the market tank,

0:52:30.600 --> 0:52:33.640
<v Speaker 1>it is very hard to stay invested. What about the

0:52:33.640 --> 0:52:37.320
<v Speaker 1>flip side of that? Starting in April, the market begins

0:52:37.320 --> 0:52:40.600
<v Speaker 1>to recover and takes off. Were you getting phone calls

0:52:40.640 --> 0:52:43.279
<v Speaker 1>from clients saying, Hey, what's going on? This doesn't make

0:52:43.320 --> 0:52:45.840
<v Speaker 1>any sense? Everything around me is closed? How can the

0:52:45.880 --> 0:52:48.799
<v Speaker 1>market be rallying? Absolutely? And then you know some of

0:52:48.840 --> 0:52:51.880
<v Speaker 1>the calls that we had about adding to home builders,

0:52:51.920 --> 0:52:54.680
<v Speaker 1>thinking about human behavior and how it was going to change,

0:52:54.719 --> 0:52:57.200
<v Speaker 1>and I remember when we added some of those exposures

0:52:57.200 --> 0:52:59.400
<v Speaker 1>to the portfolio. The knee jerk was that reaction was

0:52:59.520 --> 0:53:02.560
<v Speaker 1>really you crazy, really like who's who's buying a house

0:53:02.680 --> 0:53:04.839
<v Speaker 1>right now? Like we're in a pandemic, and it's like, well,

0:53:04.880 --> 0:53:07.560
<v Speaker 1>actually everyone people want to get the hell out. Everyone

0:53:07.600 --> 0:53:09.839
<v Speaker 1>want to get out of apartments. Everyone wants to which

0:53:09.880 --> 0:53:13.800
<v Speaker 1>is so intuitive now. But we became a lot more

0:53:13.800 --> 0:53:16.759
<v Speaker 1>tactical with some of our allocations. Of course we have

0:53:16.840 --> 0:53:21.120
<v Speaker 1>strategic asset allocations, strategic portfolios, but to really take advantage

0:53:21.120 --> 0:53:24.120
<v Speaker 1>of some of these movements because it was it was intense,

0:53:24.280 --> 0:53:26.399
<v Speaker 1>right and it continues to be intense in terms of

0:53:26.719 --> 0:53:29.120
<v Speaker 1>navigating these markets. And so we became a lot more

0:53:29.239 --> 0:53:33.560
<v Speaker 1>nimble and a lot more opportunistic in some of our investments,

0:53:33.560 --> 0:53:36.520
<v Speaker 1>and so it really increased I will say, I think

0:53:36.560 --> 0:53:39.239
<v Speaker 1>one of the surprises to us was it only made

0:53:39.280 --> 0:53:42.759
<v Speaker 1>our client relationship stronger. You would think that this very

0:53:42.800 --> 0:53:47.040
<v Speaker 1>personal business of your constantly visiting clients, You're meeting in

0:53:47.080 --> 0:53:50.520
<v Speaker 1>their homes, you get to know their families. The pandemic

0:53:50.600 --> 0:53:54.799
<v Speaker 1>created a need to understand markets better, the economy better,

0:53:54.880 --> 0:53:58.319
<v Speaker 1>the global economy better, all of these different dynamics, and

0:53:58.400 --> 0:54:01.480
<v Speaker 1>having like a go to advise and someone who was

0:54:01.600 --> 0:54:06.120
<v Speaker 1>accessible pretty much because we're all we're all working from

0:54:06.160 --> 0:54:10.560
<v Speaker 1>home and living, yeah, trying to stay healthy and taking

0:54:10.560 --> 0:54:13.520
<v Speaker 1>care of our families and and and so I actually

0:54:13.520 --> 0:54:17.400
<v Speaker 1>think it's strengthened a lot of the relationships. Um. It

0:54:17.440 --> 0:54:19.560
<v Speaker 1>was a way for us to actually when we see

0:54:19.760 --> 0:54:23.160
<v Speaker 1>look at our new client acquisition statistics, when we look

0:54:23.160 --> 0:54:25.759
<v Speaker 1>at our a U M growth, we actually brought in

0:54:25.800 --> 0:54:28.040
<v Speaker 1>a lot of assets. And so you know, hopefully that's

0:54:28.080 --> 0:54:31.040
<v Speaker 1>a testament to how we were advising our clients through

0:54:31.080 --> 0:54:34.600
<v Speaker 1>that time, the frequency, the accessibility, and and their trusting

0:54:34.719 --> 0:54:37.080
<v Speaker 1>us to continue to do that going forward. So you

0:54:37.160 --> 0:54:40.120
<v Speaker 1>have this rally off of the lows in the pandemic.

0:54:41.640 --> 0:54:44.759
<v Speaker 1>Then the calendar flips and its one. Not only does

0:54:44.840 --> 0:54:48.479
<v Speaker 1>it not slow down, it accelerates. What were you hearing

0:54:48.480 --> 0:54:52.239
<v Speaker 1>from clients the following year, Yeah, so was dominated by

0:54:52.239 --> 0:54:55.759
<v Speaker 1>this concept of COVID defensives, COVID cyclicals, Right, who are

0:54:55.760 --> 0:54:57.919
<v Speaker 1>the winners and losers when it comes to being work

0:54:58.000 --> 0:55:02.279
<v Speaker 1>from home state? Yeah, you saw that whole thing of

0:55:02.400 --> 0:55:04.880
<v Speaker 1>like stay at home versus leave your home. Right, So

0:55:05.440 --> 0:55:08.600
<v Speaker 1>that was what really dominated, and it continued to dominate.

0:55:10.000 --> 0:55:12.279
<v Speaker 1>And one of the questions that we were asking ourselves

0:55:12.880 --> 0:55:16.359
<v Speaker 1>is you did see particularly within the hyper growth part

0:55:16.440 --> 0:55:19.239
<v Speaker 1>of the market, right, hyper growth? And you know, I

0:55:19.239 --> 0:55:21.640
<v Speaker 1>think it's unfair we tend to talk about technology very

0:55:21.680 --> 0:55:23.759
<v Speaker 1>broadly as though it's you know, all one thing and

0:55:23.800 --> 0:55:26.520
<v Speaker 1>all the same. It's very different and the subsectors are

0:55:26.600 --> 0:55:29.080
<v Speaker 1>very different. But I think one way to slice and

0:55:29.120 --> 0:55:32.239
<v Speaker 1>dice it is looking at, Okay, you have some technology

0:55:32.280 --> 0:55:34.920
<v Speaker 1>companies that have durable demand, right, you can put them

0:55:34.960 --> 0:55:39.839
<v Speaker 1>in that bucket of dividend growers, durable demand um quality companies.

0:55:40.200 --> 0:55:43.560
<v Speaker 1>And then you have hyper growth companies that, you know,

0:55:43.640 --> 0:55:45.920
<v Speaker 1>the way that their stocks trade is almost like a

0:55:46.000 --> 0:55:48.799
<v Speaker 1>call option on an unknown future. Right, So just like

0:55:48.840 --> 0:55:50.560
<v Speaker 1>a coll option premium is going to have a lot

0:55:50.640 --> 0:55:53.240
<v Speaker 1>more volatility than you would see in a stock price,

0:55:53.640 --> 0:55:56.640
<v Speaker 1>you see similar behavior. And I think the momentum that

0:55:56.680 --> 0:55:59.360
<v Speaker 1>we saw in the pandemic and coming out of the pandemic,

0:55:59.560 --> 0:56:02.880
<v Speaker 1>a lot of hyper growth benefited from that. And so

0:56:03.600 --> 0:56:05.960
<v Speaker 1>one of the changes that we made to our portfolios

0:56:06.000 --> 0:56:09.000
<v Speaker 1>probably in Q three Q four of last year, was

0:56:09.040 --> 0:56:11.239
<v Speaker 1>this idea, Okay, there's going to be this shift. We're

0:56:11.239 --> 0:56:14.520
<v Speaker 1>no longer going to have this dominance of COVID cyclicals,

0:56:14.520 --> 0:56:17.600
<v Speaker 1>COVID defensives, and where we should be invested. But this

0:56:17.719 --> 0:56:19.680
<v Speaker 1>is going to be a question of what's going to

0:56:19.760 --> 0:56:22.319
<v Speaker 1>do well in a rising rate environment, how are we

0:56:22.480 --> 0:56:24.600
<v Speaker 1>how do we want to be positioned in a rising

0:56:24.680 --> 0:56:29.480
<v Speaker 1>rate environment? What companies can withstand inflationary pressures? Which was

0:56:29.560 --> 0:56:32.520
<v Speaker 1>really our shift in our portfolios away from some of

0:56:32.560 --> 0:56:36.600
<v Speaker 1>those hyper growth technology companies and then into more quality.

0:56:36.960 --> 0:56:39.200
<v Speaker 1>So let's stay with that because that's really an interesting

0:56:39.280 --> 0:56:45.200
<v Speaker 1>distinction heading into two. Sure, the broad market sold off

0:56:45.440 --> 0:56:48.520
<v Speaker 1>and we were down twenty or so percent, but when

0:56:48.560 --> 0:56:50.400
<v Speaker 1>you look at the hyper grows, when you look at

0:56:50.400 --> 0:56:53.400
<v Speaker 1>the high flyers, some of these got shall lacked forty

0:56:53.520 --> 0:56:57.280
<v Speaker 1>fifty six or worse. What do you do when clients

0:56:57.320 --> 0:57:00.319
<v Speaker 1>call up who are sitting in those sorts of things?

0:57:00.360 --> 0:57:04.880
<v Speaker 1>How do you manage that? I think finding so for

0:57:04.880 --> 0:57:08.360
<v Speaker 1>for clients who are sitting in individual stocks and looking

0:57:08.400 --> 0:57:11.359
<v Speaker 1>at okay, I am you know, part of that experience

0:57:11.400 --> 0:57:15.839
<v Speaker 1>where these positions are down fifty six. To be fair,

0:57:15.880 --> 0:57:18.120
<v Speaker 1>they had a giant run the past, had a massive

0:57:18.200 --> 0:57:20.280
<v Speaker 1>run exactly, and so you look at it net net

0:57:20.320 --> 0:57:23.120
<v Speaker 1>obviously that that's an important part of that equation. But

0:57:23.160 --> 0:57:25.400
<v Speaker 1>I think breaking it down into are we talking about

0:57:25.400 --> 0:57:28.120
<v Speaker 1>a profitable company? Are we talking about that call option

0:57:28.240 --> 0:57:30.160
<v Speaker 1>on an unknown future, or are we talking about there's

0:57:30.160 --> 0:57:34.040
<v Speaker 1>a clear path to profitability. I think there's a misunderstanding

0:57:34.120 --> 0:57:36.120
<v Speaker 1>sometimes in the market that you know, just because something

0:57:36.200 --> 0:57:39.040
<v Speaker 1>is sold off substantially, it has to go up. You know.

0:57:39.080 --> 0:57:41.400
<v Speaker 1>There there's a number of analyzes out there where it

0:57:41.440 --> 0:57:44.600
<v Speaker 1>talks about stocks that are trading, you know, eighty percent

0:57:44.680 --> 0:57:47.280
<v Speaker 1>off their all time highs, and you really look back

0:57:47.320 --> 0:57:48.960
<v Speaker 1>at it and people think that happened last year or

0:57:48.960 --> 0:57:51.760
<v Speaker 1>the year before. It could have happened twenty years ago.

0:57:51.920 --> 0:57:55.000
<v Speaker 1>There are still stocks that are trading significantly off. So

0:57:55.360 --> 0:57:57.720
<v Speaker 1>not everything that goes down must go up, So I

0:57:57.760 --> 0:58:00.480
<v Speaker 1>think it it is a function of understand ending that

0:58:00.560 --> 0:58:05.560
<v Speaker 1>we are in a tightening financial conditions environment. Don't fight

0:58:05.600 --> 0:58:08.560
<v Speaker 1>the FED, right, don't fight that FED, and and try

0:58:08.600 --> 0:58:10.840
<v Speaker 1>to determine is this something I'm willing to hold long

0:58:10.960 --> 0:58:13.960
<v Speaker 1>term because I see that path to profitability or is

0:58:13.960 --> 0:58:16.360
<v Speaker 1>this something where I don't see it and we could

0:58:16.360 --> 0:58:19.640
<v Speaker 1>see continued volatility or continued So that's the question about

0:58:19.680 --> 0:58:22.320
<v Speaker 1>the other side of the recession. Are you buying things

0:58:22.880 --> 0:58:29.439
<v Speaker 1>in two especially that you're comfortable riding up and down

0:58:29.560 --> 0:58:33.160
<v Speaker 1>until we come out of whatever takes place in twenty

0:58:33.200 --> 0:58:35.919
<v Speaker 1>three and twenty four precisely So at the like I,

0:58:35.960 --> 0:58:37.920
<v Speaker 1>like I mentioned Q three, Q four of last year,

0:58:37.960 --> 0:58:39.920
<v Speaker 1>we started to make some of these portfolio changes on

0:58:39.920 --> 0:58:42.720
<v Speaker 1>the equity side. This year we came into the year

0:58:43.320 --> 0:58:47.680
<v Speaker 1>UM underweight fix income like most people right anticipating UM

0:58:47.920 --> 0:58:52.520
<v Speaker 1>rising rates. We added fix income exposure again quality fixingcome exposure,

0:58:52.520 --> 0:58:56.600
<v Speaker 1>looking at Muni's investment grade preferred really once that tenure

0:58:56.840 --> 0:58:59.440
<v Speaker 1>the tenure crossover three for the first time, that was

0:58:59.480 --> 0:59:01.360
<v Speaker 1>an area where we said, all right, are we going

0:59:01.400 --> 0:59:03.400
<v Speaker 1>to see peak inflation? Are we going to see peak

0:59:03.480 --> 0:59:06.800
<v Speaker 1>rates in this year probably, and so we became very

0:59:06.800 --> 0:59:09.720
<v Speaker 1>comfortable adding that exposure. And now when you think of

0:59:09.720 --> 0:59:12.760
<v Speaker 1>what we were talking about earlier, this debate of are

0:59:12.800 --> 0:59:14.640
<v Speaker 1>we going to see some resiliency here or we're going

0:59:14.680 --> 0:59:17.600
<v Speaker 1>to tip over into a recession and preparing your portfolio

0:59:17.680 --> 0:59:20.360
<v Speaker 1>for both of those things, I think patients is a

0:59:20.440 --> 0:59:23.760
<v Speaker 1>virtue in this market, not chasing some of these rallies

0:59:23.800 --> 0:59:26.920
<v Speaker 1>that we see, but being very comfortable with those exposures,

0:59:26.960 --> 0:59:29.040
<v Speaker 1>both across equities, fixing come and as we were talking

0:59:29.040 --> 0:59:31.919
<v Speaker 1>about earlier private markets as well, so what you're really

0:59:31.960 --> 0:59:36.680
<v Speaker 1>describing our portfolios that are robust, resilient and can ride

0:59:36.680 --> 0:59:40.040
<v Speaker 1>out at downtown. And when you even go back to

0:59:40.480 --> 0:59:44.520
<v Speaker 1>really difficult times like the nineteen seventies and you say, okay,

0:59:44.520 --> 0:59:47.520
<v Speaker 1>well what happened to large cap quality shares during that

0:59:47.560 --> 0:59:50.120
<v Speaker 1>period of time? They were able to double their share prices. Right,

0:59:50.200 --> 0:59:54.600
<v Speaker 1>So even when you start analyzing companies about durable demand,

0:59:54.640 --> 0:59:57.080
<v Speaker 1>are acknowledging that we're going to be it doesn't mean

0:59:57.200 --> 0:59:59.960
<v Speaker 1>I I view tightening financial conditions. It's very similar to

1:00:00.000 --> 1:00:02.680
<v Speaker 1>a climbing a mountain. Right, if you have a heavier load,

1:00:02.800 --> 1:00:04.400
<v Speaker 1>it's going to take you longer. Right, it doesn't mean

1:00:04.400 --> 1:00:07.160
<v Speaker 1>you can't climb the mountain. That's what corporations are faced with,

1:00:07.240 --> 1:00:10.439
<v Speaker 1>that's what consumers are faced with, and so putting your

1:00:10.480 --> 1:00:13.120
<v Speaker 1>capital in those areas and then if we do tip

1:00:13.160 --> 1:00:16.520
<v Speaker 1>over into that recessionary environment, that fixed income portion of

1:00:16.520 --> 1:00:19.400
<v Speaker 1>the portfolio is going to do well. Right, So the

1:00:19.480 --> 1:00:23.160
<v Speaker 1>anticipation in terms of raids coming down, flight to quality

1:00:23.520 --> 1:00:26.960
<v Speaker 1>is a balance and a diversifier in the portfolio that,

1:00:27.400 --> 1:00:30.320
<v Speaker 1>as we were talking about, previously didn't make sense when

1:00:30.320 --> 1:00:33.000
<v Speaker 1>we were dealing with negative yielding dead but now now

1:00:33.040 --> 1:00:35.160
<v Speaker 1>makes sense. Right, you get some ballast at three and

1:00:35.160 --> 1:00:37.000
<v Speaker 1>a quarter three and a half that you don't really

1:00:37.000 --> 1:00:40.560
<v Speaker 1>see it forgetting me negative when when yields are, you know,

1:00:40.640 --> 1:00:43.560
<v Speaker 1>below one percent, how much room is there to that

1:00:43.680 --> 1:00:46.840
<v Speaker 1>offset any sort of downs on and we saw that

1:00:46.960 --> 1:00:49.640
<v Speaker 1>in the first half of this year. So you mentioned

1:00:49.800 --> 1:00:52.000
<v Speaker 1>high net worth and ultra high net worth. I want

1:00:52.000 --> 1:00:55.720
<v Speaker 1>to ask a question about family offices, which seemed to

1:00:55.760 --> 1:01:00.720
<v Speaker 1>be sort of their own specific category of investors. Do

1:01:00.920 --> 1:01:05.920
<v Speaker 1>they approach markets like this similarly to high net worth investors?

1:01:06.360 --> 1:01:10.080
<v Speaker 1>How is their approach different? Tell us a little bit

1:01:10.080 --> 1:01:12.880
<v Speaker 1>about what your experiences are with that group. Sure, So

1:01:12.960 --> 1:01:16.880
<v Speaker 1>with family offices, I think the interesting thing is we

1:01:16.920 --> 1:01:19.440
<v Speaker 1>try to view them as one client segment. It's not

1:01:19.480 --> 1:01:22.080
<v Speaker 1>the case at all. So well, there's a big difference

1:01:22.120 --> 1:01:25.000
<v Speaker 1>between a fifty million dollar office and a five million

1:01:25.040 --> 1:01:28.520
<v Speaker 1>dollar absolutely, and and not every family office is a

1:01:28.600 --> 1:01:31.240
<v Speaker 1>little bit different in terms of what they're dealing with,

1:01:31.400 --> 1:01:35.360
<v Speaker 1>how the wealth was created, the existing assets. And so

1:01:35.680 --> 1:01:37.840
<v Speaker 1>we're very fortunate we work with over a quarter of

1:01:37.840 --> 1:01:41.320
<v Speaker 1>the world's billionaires, we have experience working with family offices.

1:01:41.360 --> 1:01:44.600
<v Speaker 1>We actually have a dedicated global family office team, and

1:01:44.760 --> 1:01:47.720
<v Speaker 1>we do a lot of research in this area and

1:01:47.920 --> 1:01:49.840
<v Speaker 1>we provide a lot of information both in terms of

1:01:49.880 --> 1:01:53.760
<v Speaker 1>networking opportunities for family offices as well as family offices

1:01:53.800 --> 1:01:56.840
<v Speaker 1>recognizing kind of their own benchmarking, right, so data around

1:01:56.840 --> 1:01:59.280
<v Speaker 1>what are other family offices doing, how are they set up,

1:01:59.600 --> 1:02:01.920
<v Speaker 1>what is they're staffing, what are the roles of the

1:02:01.920 --> 1:02:05.640
<v Speaker 1>different people on on staff, and so um. We spend

1:02:05.640 --> 1:02:08.080
<v Speaker 1>a lot of time with this client segment. With the

1:02:08.080 --> 1:02:11.480
<v Speaker 1>acknowledgment that family offices are markedly different. I think it

1:02:11.520 --> 1:02:14.400
<v Speaker 1>all goes back to the size, as you mentioned, right,

1:02:14.440 --> 1:02:17.600
<v Speaker 1>So the size and amount of capital can greatly change

1:02:17.760 --> 1:02:20.280
<v Speaker 1>the way that the family office is structured. And then

1:02:20.320 --> 1:02:23.960
<v Speaker 1>it's also how the wealth was generated. Sometimes it's within

1:02:24.000 --> 1:02:28.160
<v Speaker 1>our industry. Sometimes it was within hedge funds, for example,

1:02:28.640 --> 1:02:31.520
<v Speaker 1>whether there's an asset that's a non negotiable, we're not

1:02:31.640 --> 1:02:35.880
<v Speaker 1>selling this asset. So someone who started an amazing company

1:02:36.000 --> 1:02:38.840
<v Speaker 1>right still is on the board, owns a big chunk

1:02:38.840 --> 1:02:41.400
<v Speaker 1>of their wealth and a concentrated stock position, and then

1:02:41.440 --> 1:02:43.760
<v Speaker 1>it's like, what are we doing around that? Right? Because

1:02:43.760 --> 1:02:47.600
<v Speaker 1>we're not touching this, I still remain active in the company.

1:02:47.720 --> 1:02:50.960
<v Speaker 1>And so I would say each family office is different.

1:02:51.000 --> 1:02:54.520
<v Speaker 1>We work with institutional family offices that tend to, you know,

1:02:54.600 --> 1:02:58.680
<v Speaker 1>trade more actively. They're looking for opportunities that are very

1:02:58.720 --> 1:03:02.360
<v Speaker 1>similar to our institution client base. We we partner with

1:03:02.400 --> 1:03:05.200
<v Speaker 1>other family offices exactly what we're talking about, right, So,

1:03:05.240 --> 1:03:07.560
<v Speaker 1>how should we think about liquidity, how should we think

1:03:07.600 --> 1:03:11.000
<v Speaker 1>about the markets? No asset classes off limits? And then

1:03:11.160 --> 1:03:13.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, there's there's certain family offices that we're seeing

1:03:13.400 --> 1:03:17.080
<v Speaker 1>nowadays especially that have very precise mandates right where you

1:03:17.120 --> 1:03:19.919
<v Speaker 1>see where you see mandates that are heavily weighted towards

1:03:20.000 --> 1:03:23.920
<v Speaker 1>private markets, mandates that are heavily weighted towards sustainable investing

1:03:24.000 --> 1:03:27.240
<v Speaker 1>or impact investing. So that's something that's really come out

1:03:27.320 --> 1:03:30.120
<v Speaker 1>over the past several years where the mandate is not

1:03:30.200 --> 1:03:34.200
<v Speaker 1>just about investments and asset classes, but actually thinking through

1:03:34.200 --> 1:03:37.000
<v Speaker 1>the full journey of the principle and what they want

1:03:37.000 --> 1:03:39.440
<v Speaker 1>to do, both from an investment standpoint as well as

1:03:39.480 --> 1:03:42.919
<v Speaker 1>a philanthropic standpoint reflecting their values. So let's I'm glad

1:03:42.960 --> 1:03:44.800
<v Speaker 1>you brought that up, because we haven't talked about that.

1:03:45.160 --> 1:03:48.520
<v Speaker 1>There's been a lot of political pushback to E s

1:03:48.600 --> 1:03:51.520
<v Speaker 1>G and that's sort of investing, but it sounds like

1:03:52.000 --> 1:03:55.760
<v Speaker 1>the investors themselves, at least a portion of them, are

1:03:55.840 --> 1:03:59.280
<v Speaker 1>asking for that. How do you balance the two or

1:03:59.360 --> 1:04:01.840
<v Speaker 1>do you just ignore the political noise. When you look

1:04:01.880 --> 1:04:05.880
<v Speaker 1>at the growth rates overall of sustainable investing versus just

1:04:06.120 --> 1:04:10.040
<v Speaker 1>broad broad based wealth right and wealth growth and and

1:04:10.200 --> 1:04:14.919
<v Speaker 1>assets coming into traditional let's say traditional investing, the anticipated

1:04:14.960 --> 1:04:17.840
<v Speaker 1>growth rate is anywhere from three to five times higher

1:04:18.000 --> 1:04:21.280
<v Speaker 1>and sustainable investing over the next five years. Huge, it's

1:04:21.360 --> 1:04:24.280
<v Speaker 1>really significant. Um, we're talking about, you know, trillions of

1:04:24.280 --> 1:04:27.400
<v Speaker 1>dollars coming into this space. And so I think the

1:04:27.520 --> 1:04:30.840
<v Speaker 1>important thing is really from an education standpoint, right, So

1:04:31.160 --> 1:04:34.240
<v Speaker 1>this is partially about what's happened within the industry, and

1:04:34.280 --> 1:04:36.960
<v Speaker 1>it's partially about what is the desire of the investor.

1:04:37.360 --> 1:04:40.760
<v Speaker 1>What's happened in the industry is a massive proliferation of products, right,

1:04:40.800 --> 1:04:43.920
<v Speaker 1>but there is a scale, right, how we've evolved over time.

1:04:44.280 --> 1:04:47.760
<v Speaker 1>You could say sustainable investing originally came, right, it came

1:04:47.800 --> 1:04:50.920
<v Speaker 1>from exclusionary, I don't want to invest in certain things,

1:04:51.520 --> 1:04:54.680
<v Speaker 1>and then it's become okay, maybe more broad based in

1:04:54.800 --> 1:04:57.520
<v Speaker 1>terms of some of the criteria and then looking at

1:04:57.560 --> 1:05:01.160
<v Speaker 1>really making an impact, right, so both a return financially

1:05:01.240 --> 1:05:04.360
<v Speaker 1>and being able to measure the impact the trends that

1:05:04.400 --> 1:05:07.040
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing in this space that are much more personalized.

1:05:07.240 --> 1:05:09.520
<v Speaker 1>So where you see that higher kind of five times

1:05:09.560 --> 1:05:12.120
<v Speaker 1>growth rate is really more on the line of I

1:05:12.160 --> 1:05:15.240
<v Speaker 1>want thematic, I want things that are personalized to what

1:05:15.400 --> 1:05:18.120
<v Speaker 1>I want to do. And it's no longer. And this

1:05:18.160 --> 1:05:20.280
<v Speaker 1>is where a lot of people get confused. It's not

1:05:20.320 --> 1:05:24.720
<v Speaker 1>about philanthropy, right, So philanthropy is something entirely different. This

1:05:24.760 --> 1:05:27.880
<v Speaker 1>is about where am I investing capital that is then

1:05:27.960 --> 1:05:31.880
<v Speaker 1>aligned to my values and it's not concessionaire. It's not

1:05:31.960 --> 1:05:35.680
<v Speaker 1>about taking inferior returns. It's about creating that mandate and

1:05:35.720 --> 1:05:38.240
<v Speaker 1>being very specific about it. So the ability to be

1:05:38.280 --> 1:05:41.200
<v Speaker 1>able to customize that and personalize that is something that's

1:05:41.240 --> 1:05:44.160
<v Speaker 1>going to be significant for wealth managers going forward. So

1:05:45.240 --> 1:05:47.320
<v Speaker 1>last question on this topic and then we'll get to

1:05:47.360 --> 1:05:51.880
<v Speaker 1>our favorite questions. Some of the studies I've seen have

1:05:52.560 --> 1:05:56.560
<v Speaker 1>mentioned that when it comes to sustainable investing or impact

1:05:56.640 --> 1:06:02.320
<v Speaker 1>investing UM, the younger generation embraces it much more wholeheartedly

1:06:02.880 --> 1:06:06.760
<v Speaker 1>than do the boomers or or younger than them, And

1:06:06.800 --> 1:06:09.880
<v Speaker 1>the boomers are really on the verge of a multi

1:06:09.880 --> 1:06:14.640
<v Speaker 1>trillion dollar generational wealth transfer. Is part of that, underlying

1:06:14.720 --> 1:06:18.960
<v Speaker 1>that big change in growth of for sustainable investing. Absolutely,

1:06:19.000 --> 1:06:23.640
<v Speaker 1>I think there's demographics, there's trends UM. You even see

1:06:23.640 --> 1:06:26.919
<v Speaker 1>that in gen Z Right. It's it's about passion and purpose, right,

1:06:27.040 --> 1:06:29.480
<v Speaker 1>It's it's not just about where you're investing, but what

1:06:29.640 --> 1:06:31.800
<v Speaker 1>is my career? Where am I working day to day? Right?

1:06:31.840 --> 1:06:35.240
<v Speaker 1>And really finding that from a from a value perspective.

1:06:35.560 --> 1:06:37.600
<v Speaker 1>But I think we're also a little bit too flippant

1:06:37.640 --> 1:06:43.280
<v Speaker 1>in terms of of saying the the boomers are not

1:06:43.440 --> 1:06:46.360
<v Speaker 1>interested in this. I think everyone's interested in it. I

1:06:46.840 --> 1:06:48.760
<v Speaker 1>really really do. I think you know, when you think

1:06:48.800 --> 1:06:51.360
<v Speaker 1>about who am I giving my money to write? Who

1:06:51.360 --> 1:06:53.760
<v Speaker 1>am I giving my money to? Investing is giving your

1:06:53.760 --> 1:06:57.520
<v Speaker 1>money to someone right? It is betting on someone else's ingenuity.

1:06:57.600 --> 1:07:00.080
<v Speaker 1>And so having that type of thing, if I are

1:07:00.080 --> 1:07:02.600
<v Speaker 1>going to lend money to someone you know personally or

1:07:02.600 --> 1:07:05.120
<v Speaker 1>invest equity in someone, I would want them to be,

1:07:05.640 --> 1:07:07.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, aligned in terms of values, make sure that

1:07:07.960 --> 1:07:10.800
<v Speaker 1>there are you know, a good person treating their employees well,

1:07:11.200 --> 1:07:14.600
<v Speaker 1>making you know, investments in the right in in the

1:07:14.680 --> 1:07:19.440
<v Speaker 1>right areas, embracing things like diversity, not just from a

1:07:19.480 --> 1:07:22.439
<v Speaker 1>diversity and inclusion standpoint, but also from diversity of thought

1:07:22.520 --> 1:07:25.240
<v Speaker 1>and background and ideas, and so you know, when you

1:07:25.240 --> 1:07:27.040
<v Speaker 1>think of that on a micro level and then you

1:07:27.080 --> 1:07:29.080
<v Speaker 1>expand it to a macro level in terms of how

1:07:29.120 --> 1:07:32.800
<v Speaker 1>you're investing, it becomes intuitive that everyone wants to do that,

1:07:33.120 --> 1:07:35.360
<v Speaker 1>but do they have the time? Right? Like, do they

1:07:35.400 --> 1:07:37.800
<v Speaker 1>have the time? And so that's where I do think

1:07:38.200 --> 1:07:41.160
<v Speaker 1>there is a huge responsibility for wealth managers to filter

1:07:41.280 --> 1:07:44.160
<v Speaker 1>through and make sure we're not labeling certain things. And

1:07:44.200 --> 1:07:46.680
<v Speaker 1>then there's a huge opportunity for wealth managers because then

1:07:46.720 --> 1:07:51.400
<v Speaker 1>if you're presented with that, you understand the risk mitigation factors,

1:07:51.560 --> 1:07:55.080
<v Speaker 1>you can view this as a risk mitigant, right governance.

1:07:55.440 --> 1:07:57.959
<v Speaker 1>Governance is a big piece of that. Right, so better

1:07:58.040 --> 1:08:04.160
<v Speaker 1>governance is less of the sort of outcome. Absolutely, and

1:08:04.240 --> 1:08:07.200
<v Speaker 1>so I think it's applicable to everyone. Um. I think

1:08:07.200 --> 1:08:10.040
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot more education that has to happen within

1:08:10.080 --> 1:08:12.920
<v Speaker 1>the space. There's a lot more personalization, a lot more

1:08:12.960 --> 1:08:16.559
<v Speaker 1>demand for thematic investing. But this is something where it's

1:08:16.560 --> 1:08:20.799
<v Speaker 1>a great opportunity to bridge what the investors really want.

1:08:21.040 --> 1:08:24.960
<v Speaker 1>And also the current offerings really quite interesting. Alright, I

1:08:25.000 --> 1:08:27.320
<v Speaker 1>know I only have you for a limited amount of time,

1:08:27.360 --> 1:08:31.120
<v Speaker 1>so I'm going to jump to my favorite questions. I

1:08:31.200 --> 1:08:34.160
<v Speaker 1>know you have young ones at home that you had

1:08:34.160 --> 1:08:37.800
<v Speaker 1>to deal with during during the pandemic. What did you

1:08:37.840 --> 1:08:40.120
<v Speaker 1>do to entertain them? What sort of things was the

1:08:40.120 --> 1:08:43.400
<v Speaker 1>family watching on Netflix or whatever? What were we doing

1:08:43.479 --> 1:08:47.080
<v Speaker 1>during the pandemic? I mean we did, uh. We we

1:08:47.160 --> 1:08:50.160
<v Speaker 1>set up makeshifts like zip lines in our house. It's

1:08:50.160 --> 1:08:54.160
<v Speaker 1>an engineering feat. Um. I have two boys, So two boys. Um,

1:08:54.200 --> 1:08:57.280
<v Speaker 1>they're now six and eight. Okay, So at the pandemic,

1:08:57.439 --> 1:09:00.160
<v Speaker 1>they were a little yeah, they were, they were all

1:09:00.200 --> 1:09:02.679
<v Speaker 1>they're still young. Um, so we were trying to find

1:09:02.680 --> 1:09:06.840
<v Speaker 1>ways to burn energy, right, Um, it was for them.

1:09:06.960 --> 1:09:09.360
<v Speaker 1>I think it was Hopefully they'll remember this way. I

1:09:09.360 --> 1:09:12.160
<v Speaker 1>think it was delightful for them because I travel a lot,

1:09:12.240 --> 1:09:13.920
<v Speaker 1>so they've got used to, you know, me being at

1:09:13.920 --> 1:09:17.439
<v Speaker 1>home cooking pancakes in the morning. Um, but what have

1:09:17.520 --> 1:09:21.559
<v Speaker 1>we been watching? So two boys obviously are dominating my

1:09:22.080 --> 1:09:25.960
<v Speaker 1>Netflix and any type of streaming. Uh, there's a lot

1:09:25.960 --> 1:09:28.000
<v Speaker 1>of wild crats going on. Not even sure if you

1:09:28.040 --> 1:09:33.160
<v Speaker 1>know this program. I have nieces and nephews. Yes, I'm familiar, Yes, yes, Um,

1:09:33.280 --> 1:09:35.639
<v Speaker 1>and then I would say I had no idea how

1:09:35.640 --> 1:09:40.040
<v Speaker 1>many Avenger movies there were endless, there's millions. They just

1:09:40.080 --> 1:09:44.400
<v Speaker 1>don't stop. They don't stop. Um. Godzillas a whole franchise

1:09:44.479 --> 1:09:46.800
<v Speaker 1>I didn't know existed. I missed this over the past

1:09:46.840 --> 1:09:48.920
<v Speaker 1>two decades. I know it's a franchise. I haven't seen

1:09:48.960 --> 1:09:51.200
<v Speaker 1>any of the recent ones. You can ask me anything

1:09:51.200 --> 1:09:55.640
<v Speaker 1>about that. Um. And then any of the Star Wars Mandalorian.

1:09:56.600 --> 1:09:59.400
<v Speaker 1>Are they too young for Star Wars? I tried, we're

1:09:59.400 --> 1:10:02.720
<v Speaker 1>not there yet. We are into the Jurassic World. We

1:10:02.800 --> 1:10:05.600
<v Speaker 1>got to see that in the theater. Um. So I

1:10:06.080 --> 1:10:08.360
<v Speaker 1>you know what, I I let them lead the way.

1:10:08.520 --> 1:10:11.799
<v Speaker 1>Someday they'll they'll get into two star Wars, I hope,

1:10:11.920 --> 1:10:15.800
<v Speaker 1>but personally so, here's my current recommendation, which I just

1:10:15.880 --> 1:10:18.040
<v Speaker 1>discovered and I don't know how I didn't know about

1:10:18.040 --> 1:10:23.479
<v Speaker 1>this earlier is yellow Stone. We haven't started it yet.

1:10:23.520 --> 1:10:26.920
<v Speaker 1>It is remarkable. So Kevin Costner, I mean, who doesn't

1:10:26.920 --> 1:10:30.080
<v Speaker 1>love Kevin Costner? Right? Like Field of Dreams The Bodyguard.

1:10:30.160 --> 1:10:35.440
<v Speaker 1>Do you remember the famous Whitney It was Robin Hood,

1:10:35.479 --> 1:10:39.639
<v Speaker 1>I mean Dances with Wolves. But this is an incredible show.

1:10:39.680 --> 1:10:43.960
<v Speaker 1>There's four seasons out there. It is like Succession meets

1:10:44.600 --> 1:10:47.960
<v Speaker 1>I don't there's like a Succession meets the West meets

1:10:48.000 --> 1:10:52.280
<v Speaker 1>It's worth it. Check it out. Next question, you mentioned

1:10:52.320 --> 1:10:55.679
<v Speaker 1>some of your mentors. Tell us who helped to shape

1:10:55.720 --> 1:10:59.040
<v Speaker 1>your career. I have been so lucky that I've had

1:10:59.200 --> 1:11:02.519
<v Speaker 1>so many amazing mentors and people around me. I may

1:11:02.520 --> 1:11:04.960
<v Speaker 1>flip this question a little bit, just in the sense of,

1:11:05.000 --> 1:11:08.240
<v Speaker 1>like some early pieces of advice that have stuck with me,

1:11:08.720 --> 1:11:13.880
<v Speaker 1>I'll mention two uh one, Um, I played tennis growing up,

1:11:13.920 --> 1:11:16.880
<v Speaker 1>and and I had a great tennis coach in high school.

1:11:17.000 --> 1:11:19.200
<v Speaker 1>And one of the things that she said, and I

1:11:19.200 --> 1:11:21.400
<v Speaker 1>still remember this, this is like so vivid, and I

1:11:21.520 --> 1:11:23.800
<v Speaker 1>tell it to myself some sometimes, because we we all

1:11:23.840 --> 1:11:26.720
<v Speaker 1>need to to check ourselves. Is She would tell the

1:11:26.760 --> 1:11:29.880
<v Speaker 1>story that basically went something like this, that you know,

1:11:29.920 --> 1:11:33.360
<v Speaker 1>when you're in your twenties and thirties, you're always worrying

1:11:33.400 --> 1:11:36.439
<v Speaker 1>about what everyone is saying about you, and then when

1:11:36.479 --> 1:11:39.559
<v Speaker 1>you get into your forties, you realize you don't really

1:11:39.560 --> 1:11:42.000
<v Speaker 1>care what they're saying about you. And then when you're

1:11:42.000 --> 1:11:44.360
<v Speaker 1>in your fifties and sixties, you realize they weren't talking

1:11:44.400 --> 1:11:49.599
<v Speaker 1>about you in the first place. And it is so true, Barry,

1:11:49.680 --> 1:11:52.080
<v Speaker 1>it is so true. And so sometimes when you're feeling,

1:11:52.360 --> 1:11:54.639
<v Speaker 1>you know, a little anxious, or you're wondering how something

1:11:54.720 --> 1:11:57.920
<v Speaker 1>went or whether it was bad good, I use that also.

1:11:58.240 --> 1:11:59.840
<v Speaker 1>I don't know if you play golf. Do you play golf?

1:11:59.880 --> 1:12:02.479
<v Speaker 1>I play tennis. I don't play golf all right, So golf.

1:12:02.520 --> 1:12:04.720
<v Speaker 1>I'm a terrible golfer, but I love to do it.

1:12:04.880 --> 1:12:07.880
<v Speaker 1>And so golf I used to get really nervous playing

1:12:07.880 --> 1:12:11.040
<v Speaker 1>with clients and playing with with other people. And then

1:12:11.040 --> 1:12:14.479
<v Speaker 1>I realized that advice applies to golf as well, because

1:12:14.760 --> 1:12:17.439
<v Speaker 1>everyone is so obsessed with their own game, they're not

1:12:17.439 --> 1:12:21.280
<v Speaker 1>paying attention to your game. So there's there's numerous ways

1:12:21.320 --> 1:12:24.160
<v Speaker 1>you can apply this. The other story that I'll tell

1:12:24.479 --> 1:12:27.439
<v Speaker 1>really quickly, which has carried with me is um I

1:12:27.439 --> 1:12:31.840
<v Speaker 1>went to Notre Dame undergrad. One of Notre Dames very

1:12:31.920 --> 1:12:35.519
<v Speaker 1>long standing, very well known presidents is is a gentleman

1:12:35.520 --> 1:12:39.400
<v Speaker 1>who passed away various years ago named Father Hesburg. So

1:12:39.479 --> 1:12:41.960
<v Speaker 1>he was president of the university for thirty five years,

1:12:42.720 --> 1:12:46.439
<v Speaker 1>very present, very very present. Um. He had an office

1:12:46.439 --> 1:12:48.599
<v Speaker 1>on the thirteenth floor of the library. So for anyone

1:12:48.680 --> 1:12:51.679
<v Speaker 1>kind of geeky you could, you could hang out with him,

1:12:51.840 --> 1:12:54.360
<v Speaker 1>go into his office. He would give you, give you advice.

1:12:54.600 --> 1:12:59.840
<v Speaker 1>And he had this homily during Lent, which is when

1:13:00.200 --> 1:13:02.640
<v Speaker 1>Catholics generally you give up something for for lunch, you

1:13:02.640 --> 1:13:07.519
<v Speaker 1>make some type of sacrifice. And so normally you people

1:13:07.560 --> 1:13:10.040
<v Speaker 1>like to give up food. They like to they like

1:13:10.080 --> 1:13:12.559
<v Speaker 1>to become a vegetarian for that that period of time.

1:13:12.880 --> 1:13:16.080
<v Speaker 1>And so he would tell this story that, Um, you

1:13:16.080 --> 1:13:18.120
<v Speaker 1>know when he thinks about Lent, you know there are

1:13:18.200 --> 1:13:20.559
<v Speaker 1>periods of time where you know, at first he thought

1:13:20.600 --> 1:13:23.120
<v Speaker 1>he would give up drinking. So let's give up drinking

1:13:23.200 --> 1:13:24.559
<v Speaker 1>for Lent. That's what I'm going to do. And a

1:13:24.560 --> 1:13:27.639
<v Speaker 1>couple of days into it, it becomes too hard. It's

1:13:27.680 --> 1:13:29.720
<v Speaker 1>too hard. So then you know what, I'm going to

1:13:29.800 --> 1:13:32.360
<v Speaker 1>give up smoking. I like to smoke cigars, so I'm

1:13:32.360 --> 1:13:34.320
<v Speaker 1>going to give up smoking. But then I have a

1:13:34.400 --> 1:13:36.519
<v Speaker 1>drink in my hand, and that cigar kind of seems

1:13:36.560 --> 1:13:39.519
<v Speaker 1>to make sense. So that was too hard. And so

1:13:39.840 --> 1:13:42.400
<v Speaker 1>then I'm thinking, instead of giving something up, why don't

1:13:42.400 --> 1:13:45.679
<v Speaker 1>I do something challenging yet healthy. I'm going to start running.

1:13:46.080 --> 1:13:49.200
<v Speaker 1>But then with all the smoking and drinking, there's no

1:13:49.280 --> 1:13:51.720
<v Speaker 1>way I could be a runner. And so what he

1:13:51.760 --> 1:13:53.920
<v Speaker 1>said is, you know, we spend all of this time

1:13:54.560 --> 1:13:57.720
<v Speaker 1>thinking about like how we're making sacrifices, what we're gonna do,

1:13:57.760 --> 1:14:00.400
<v Speaker 1>And he's like, just be kind, like be aware of

1:14:00.439 --> 1:14:03.799
<v Speaker 1>how you're treating other people. That's probably the most important

1:14:03.840 --> 1:14:06.200
<v Speaker 1>thing to do, not just during Lent, but during any

1:14:06.200 --> 1:14:09.720
<v Speaker 1>time of the year. And I think that's really applicable

1:14:09.800 --> 1:14:13.040
<v Speaker 1>to your personal life, your professional life. It's like, just

1:14:13.479 --> 1:14:15.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, take a moment to check yourself and just

1:14:15.360 --> 1:14:18.559
<v Speaker 1>be kind. I like it. Let's talk about books. What

1:14:18.600 --> 1:14:20.519
<v Speaker 1>are some of your favorites and what are you reading

1:14:20.600 --> 1:14:23.839
<v Speaker 1>right now? So I'll give you one from Spanish literature.

1:14:24.360 --> 1:14:27.320
<v Speaker 1>Um so one of my favorite books of all time

1:14:28.120 --> 1:14:32.760
<v Speaker 1>was written by a Spanish philosopher named Una Muno, So,

1:14:33.760 --> 1:14:37.160
<v Speaker 1>a very famous Spanish philosopher. Uh. He wrote this book

1:14:37.240 --> 1:14:42.479
<v Speaker 1>called San Manuelitude, which is San Manuel Saint Manuel the

1:14:42.600 --> 1:14:46.880
<v Speaker 1>Good Murder, and it is effectively it's a really short story,

1:14:47.240 --> 1:14:49.560
<v Speaker 1>but it is about a priest who doesn't believe in

1:14:49.600 --> 1:14:52.240
<v Speaker 1>God and kind of the impact that he has. It's

1:14:52.360 --> 1:14:55.880
<v Speaker 1>it's a beautiful book. It's like really challenges a lot

1:14:55.920 --> 1:14:58.240
<v Speaker 1>of things. So that's one of my all time favorite

1:14:58.240 --> 1:15:01.280
<v Speaker 1>parable or is it? How how it's like a parable? Yeah,

1:15:01.320 --> 1:15:03.559
<v Speaker 1>it's like a parable. Um. And so you know, at

1:15:03.600 --> 1:15:05.960
<v Speaker 1>face value, you think it's an entertaining story, but there's

1:15:06.000 --> 1:15:09.559
<v Speaker 1>a lot of you know, undercurrents in it. Um. So

1:15:09.640 --> 1:15:13.479
<v Speaker 1>anyone who has studied Spanish literature from Spain probably knows

1:15:13.600 --> 1:15:16.280
<v Speaker 1>the author certainly and and and this book pretty well,

1:15:16.880 --> 1:15:19.519
<v Speaker 1>um in terms of some of the things that I'm

1:15:19.600 --> 1:15:23.920
<v Speaker 1>reading right now. So another podcast that I'm a big

1:15:23.960 --> 1:15:28.519
<v Speaker 1>fan of. Have you listened to Dak Shepherd's podcasts Armchair Expert?

1:15:28.560 --> 1:15:31.559
<v Speaker 1>Have you ever know? But it sounds familiar. So Dak

1:15:31.560 --> 1:15:36.080
<v Speaker 1>Shepherd actor, comedic actor. Um, he also happened to study

1:15:36.640 --> 1:15:39.920
<v Speaker 1>I believe anthropology at U c l A. He does

1:15:39.960 --> 1:15:43.400
<v Speaker 1>an amazing podcast right interviews people from all different walks

1:15:43.439 --> 1:15:49.160
<v Speaker 1>of life, um, politicians, authors, scientists, um, you name it.

1:15:49.240 --> 1:15:52.160
<v Speaker 1>And so he had a recent guest on Anna lemke

1:15:52.960 --> 1:15:55.599
<v Speaker 1>Um who was a psychiatrist, and she wrote this book,

1:15:55.600 --> 1:15:58.679
<v Speaker 1>Dopamine Nation, which is I'm in the middle of that.

1:15:58.840 --> 1:16:02.439
<v Speaker 1>It's really fascinating ing. It's kind of like the science

1:16:02.479 --> 1:16:05.800
<v Speaker 1>of addiction, and it's not addiction in your traditional sense.

1:16:05.800 --> 1:16:08.800
<v Speaker 1>It's like addiction to digital devices and some of the

1:16:08.840 --> 1:16:11.639
<v Speaker 1>things that are kind of plaguing modern times right now.

1:16:11.760 --> 1:16:13.840
<v Speaker 1>So I haven't finished it. I'm like square in the

1:16:13.840 --> 1:16:16.559
<v Speaker 1>middle of it, and it's been a really really good read.

1:16:17.240 --> 1:16:19.600
<v Speaker 1>And then the next one that I'm reading, which is

1:16:19.640 --> 1:16:23.559
<v Speaker 1>great because it's short stories, is um. David Sedaris has

1:16:23.600 --> 1:16:26.280
<v Speaker 1>a new collection it's called The Best of Me that

1:16:26.520 --> 1:16:29.000
<v Speaker 1>is kind of vignettes from his life and some of

1:16:29.040 --> 1:16:31.200
<v Speaker 1>his best stories that he's written in the past. So

1:16:31.240 --> 1:16:32.720
<v Speaker 1>I like anything we can kind of get like a

1:16:32.720 --> 1:16:35.439
<v Speaker 1>little snippet and you finish it, start to finish. He

1:16:35.720 --> 1:16:38.880
<v Speaker 1>and I believe his sister are both hilarious, and they

1:16:38.920 --> 1:16:42.160
<v Speaker 1>are hilarious hilarious, right, I think David Sedaris. You know

1:16:42.200 --> 1:16:46.160
<v Speaker 1>those books, the books where you laugh out loud. I

1:16:46.240 --> 1:16:48.559
<v Speaker 1>think you're reading like it's easy to laugh out loud

1:16:48.600 --> 1:16:51.559
<v Speaker 1>you're in person. But when you're reading a book, someone

1:16:51.600 --> 1:16:55.840
<v Speaker 1>who's humor comes through on a page. Insanely talented writer

1:16:56.040 --> 1:17:00.720
<v Speaker 1>in my book, absolutely Our final two questions, what sort

1:17:00.720 --> 1:17:03.439
<v Speaker 1>of advice would you give to a recent college grad

1:17:03.520 --> 1:17:08.240
<v Speaker 1>who was interested in a career in either capital markets,

1:17:08.320 --> 1:17:12.519
<v Speaker 1>derivatives or wealth management. I would say it's an amazing career,

1:17:12.720 --> 1:17:16.640
<v Speaker 1>so I would highly recommend it. I would say, you know,

1:17:16.720 --> 1:17:19.639
<v Speaker 1>one piece of advice if you go into it, don't

1:17:19.760 --> 1:17:22.200
<v Speaker 1>don't exclude wealth management. I think a lot of times,

1:17:22.200 --> 1:17:26.519
<v Speaker 1>you know the the sexier UM analyst programs and entry

1:17:26.560 --> 1:17:29.439
<v Speaker 1>level programs, everyone historically has always focused so much on

1:17:29.800 --> 1:17:33.240
<v Speaker 1>investment banking and sales and trading. Don't ignore wealth management.

1:17:33.240 --> 1:17:35.559
<v Speaker 1>It's a high growth rate, and it's a It's a

1:17:35.640 --> 1:17:38.920
<v Speaker 1>really interesting and rewarding part of the market. The other

1:17:38.960 --> 1:17:41.040
<v Speaker 1>thing that I would say is, I think there's this

1:17:41.120 --> 1:17:46.040
<v Speaker 1>habit that when you graduate from school and you get

1:17:46.120 --> 1:17:49.120
<v Speaker 1>your first job, you basically have this moment you're like,

1:17:49.120 --> 1:17:51.360
<v Speaker 1>I did it right. I've been planning for so long.

1:17:51.680 --> 1:17:54.320
<v Speaker 1>I you know, I was building up my resume and

1:17:54.400 --> 1:17:56.519
<v Speaker 1>high school so I would get into the right college.

1:17:56.640 --> 1:17:59.519
<v Speaker 1>And I did well in college, and I you know,

1:17:59.560 --> 1:18:01.800
<v Speaker 1>applied to various jobs and now I have this job,

1:18:01.840 --> 1:18:04.880
<v Speaker 1>and like I've done it. And so we spend you know,

1:18:04.960 --> 1:18:07.679
<v Speaker 1>the big chunk of our life planning for the next phase.

1:18:07.720 --> 1:18:12.200
<v Speaker 1>So approaching everything as though you're always a student, never

1:18:12.280 --> 1:18:15.400
<v Speaker 1>stop planning. Always think about that, right, Like you have

1:18:15.439 --> 1:18:17.080
<v Speaker 1>to do a good job at what you're doing. That's

1:18:17.120 --> 1:18:20.280
<v Speaker 1>table stakes. But having this constant it can change this

1:18:20.400 --> 1:18:22.720
<v Speaker 1>constant plan, like what do I want to do right

1:18:22.800 --> 1:18:25.640
<v Speaker 1>in five years. So it's a great career, it's a

1:18:25.640 --> 1:18:28.800
<v Speaker 1>great industry. It's a growing area of our industry. But

1:18:28.840 --> 1:18:32.599
<v Speaker 1>I think if you bring that same innovation planning drive

1:18:32.680 --> 1:18:34.760
<v Speaker 1>to it, you'll be just amazed at where it takes you.

1:18:35.400 --> 1:18:38.000
<v Speaker 1>And our final question, what do you know about the

1:18:38.040 --> 1:18:43.400
<v Speaker 1>world of markets and investing today you wish you knew

1:18:43.880 --> 1:18:47.200
<v Speaker 1>years ago when you were first getting started. So I

1:18:47.200 --> 1:18:51.400
<v Speaker 1>mean so many things, probably so many things. I would

1:18:51.439 --> 1:18:55.960
<v Speaker 1>say a couple of things as I've progressed in the industry,

1:18:56.000 --> 1:18:58.280
<v Speaker 1>and some of the things that I've thought about is

1:18:59.120 --> 1:19:02.000
<v Speaker 1>when you get very comfortable, is when you get a

1:19:02.000 --> 1:19:05.800
<v Speaker 1>little lazy and complacent, right, So this idea that one

1:19:05.920 --> 1:19:08.120
<v Speaker 1>something you're you're doing it and it almost becomes at

1:19:08.120 --> 1:19:10.960
<v Speaker 1>first it's really challenging, but you find yourself in that

1:19:11.520 --> 1:19:15.360
<v Speaker 1>environment where it's on autopilot pivot, right. So so find

1:19:15.360 --> 1:19:18.360
<v Speaker 1>a way to either expand your responsibilities, learn something new,

1:19:18.439 --> 1:19:21.320
<v Speaker 1>reach out to colleagues. And so there's just it's such

1:19:21.320 --> 1:19:24.120
<v Speaker 1>a vast industry. And I think it's going back to

1:19:24.120 --> 1:19:27.200
<v Speaker 1>my comment about always a student. We're always learning things, right,

1:19:27.240 --> 1:19:29.960
<v Speaker 1>So I think that's one component to it. And then

1:19:30.000 --> 1:19:33.719
<v Speaker 1>another thing that I'll share is this is something Jamie Ferreese,

1:19:33.720 --> 1:19:36.400
<v Speaker 1>who is the former he let our Institutional Clients group.

1:19:36.439 --> 1:19:39.120
<v Speaker 1>He as a former president of City. You know, one

1:19:39.120 --> 1:19:40.479
<v Speaker 1>of the things that he shared with me is I

1:19:40.560 --> 1:19:43.080
<v Speaker 1>was playing a terrible golf round with him. By the way,

1:19:43.240 --> 1:19:47.920
<v Speaker 1>one of one of my embarrassing golf golf rounds is

1:19:48.000 --> 1:19:50.120
<v Speaker 1>I asked him a question about, you know, just thinking

1:19:50.120 --> 1:19:52.920
<v Speaker 1>about his success and how he really rose through the

1:19:53.000 --> 1:19:55.720
<v Speaker 1>ranks at City, and he said, you know what, one

1:19:55.720 --> 1:19:58.680
<v Speaker 1>of the challenges that I have is that, you know,

1:19:58.720 --> 1:20:02.360
<v Speaker 1>you reach a certain seniority level and people don't challenge

1:20:02.360 --> 1:20:06.719
<v Speaker 1>you anymore. Every idea that you have, everyone says is brilliant,

1:20:06.840 --> 1:20:09.080
<v Speaker 1>and it's it's not the case. It's certainly not the case.

1:20:09.120 --> 1:20:12.120
<v Speaker 1>It can't be the case. And so what he said

1:20:12.160 --> 1:20:13.840
<v Speaker 1>is he's like, you know, you have to really create

1:20:13.840 --> 1:20:17.479
<v Speaker 1>those opportunities and environments where people can challenge you. Right.

1:20:17.520 --> 1:20:22.800
<v Speaker 1>And the second part of that is that pivoting or

1:20:22.920 --> 1:20:25.120
<v Speaker 1>changing your mind is not a sign of weakness. It's

1:20:25.120 --> 1:20:27.200
<v Speaker 1>actually a sign of strength. Right, So to be able

1:20:27.280 --> 1:20:30.320
<v Speaker 1>to admit that you did something wrong or that you

1:20:30.400 --> 1:20:33.160
<v Speaker 1>made the wrong decision, but you're going to change that

1:20:33.280 --> 1:20:35.679
<v Speaker 1>and you have an action plan. I think we tend

1:20:35.680 --> 1:20:40.200
<v Speaker 1>to value things like confidence and conviction, but humility is

1:20:40.960 --> 1:20:43.439
<v Speaker 1>a virtue, and I think knowing and admitting when you're

1:20:43.439 --> 1:20:47.040
<v Speaker 1>wrong is actually a superpower that's way underrated. I couldn't

1:20:47.080 --> 1:20:50.919
<v Speaker 1>agree more. Um, thank you, Kristen for being so generous

1:20:51.000 --> 1:20:55.280
<v Speaker 1>with your time. We have been speaking with Kristin Biddely Michelle,

1:20:55.479 --> 1:20:59.720
<v Speaker 1>head of North American Investments for City Global Wealth. If

1:20:59.760 --> 1:21:02.760
<v Speaker 1>you enjoy this conversation, well, be sure and check out

1:21:02.800 --> 1:21:06.120
<v Speaker 1>any of the previous four hundred plus we've done over

1:21:06.160 --> 1:21:10.360
<v Speaker 1>the past eight years. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify,

1:21:10.479 --> 1:21:14.719
<v Speaker 1>wherever you get your favorite podcast from. We love your comments, feedback,

1:21:14.800 --> 1:21:18.479
<v Speaker 1>end suggestions right to us at m IB podcast at

1:21:18.520 --> 1:21:22.160
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot net. Sign up from my Daily reads at

1:21:22.240 --> 1:21:25.599
<v Speaker 1>rid Halts dot com. Follow me on Twitter at rid Halts.

1:21:26.080 --> 1:21:27.960
<v Speaker 1>I would be remiss if I did not thank the

1:21:28.000 --> 1:21:32.000
<v Speaker 1>crack team who helps us put these conversations together each week.

1:21:32.560 --> 1:21:36.600
<v Speaker 1>My audio engineer is Justin Miller Atka Val Brond is

1:21:36.640 --> 1:21:41.160
<v Speaker 1>my project director. Paris Wold is my producer. Sean Russo

1:21:41.320 --> 1:21:44.920
<v Speaker 1>is my head of research. I'm Barry Hults. You've been

1:21:44.960 --> 1:21:49.400
<v Speaker 1>listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg radioa