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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat fitz

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Speaker 1: Morris Matt's Bo mcbrair. We are here to preview the

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Speaker 1: first event of the PGA Tours Florida Swing, the Cognizant Classic.

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Speaker 1: We'll also quickly recap the Mexico Open. We'll share our

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Speaker 1: early betting cards with you, and then we will make

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Speaker 1: our one and done picks at the end of the show.

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Speaker 1: Brian Campbell wins the Mexico Open, beating Aldrich pott Geeter

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Speaker 1: in a playoff. Talk about a win out of left field.

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Speaker 1: This was Campbell's fifth PGA Tours start since twenty seventeen.

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Speaker 1: His best finish in three previous events this season a

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Speaker 1: tie for fifty first at the American Express. His best

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Speaker 1: ever finish had been a tie for twelve at the

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Speaker 1: John Deere Classic in twenty seventeen. The Mexico Open is

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Speaker 1: supposed to be a bomber's paradise course that favors the

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Speaker 1: big hitters. Brian Campbell's currently dead last on the PGA

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Speaker 1: Tour in driving distance, averaging two hundred and seventy seven

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Speaker 1: point eight yards per drive, the tour average three zero

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Speaker 1: three point four yards, and the guy. Brian Campbell beat

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Speaker 1: in sun Death currently leads the tour in driving distance.

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Speaker 1: Twenty year old South African Aldrich Pottgeter bo I had

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Speaker 1: quite the two day sweat with young mister pott Geater.

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Speaker 1: We were in the sauna together all weekend. Pot Geter

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Speaker 1: shot a ten under par sixty one on Friday to

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Speaker 1: take a four shot lead into the weekend. He held

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Speaker 1: up pretty well on Saturday until he started to leak

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Speaker 1: oil on the last two holes, sliced an iron into

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Speaker 1: the trees on the par three seventeenth, had to chip

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Speaker 1: out just a few yards and then scrambled just to

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Speaker 1: make bogie. Then on the par five eighteenth, he was

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Speaker 1: in perfect position after a big drive, then botched his

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Speaker 1: approach shot. Needed to work hard just to make his par.

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Speaker 1: That finish was a sign of struggles to come. Brian

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Speaker 1: Campbell meanwhile opened with rounds of sixty five, sixty five

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Speaker 1: and sixty four. He was just one shot off the

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Speaker 1: lead going into Sunday. Also in the final group was

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Speaker 1: even Jaeger. Those three couldn't get anything going on the

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Speaker 1: front nine Sunday, which let others into the hunt. Aaron Raye,

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Speaker 1: who briefly had to share the lead on Sunday Isaiah Solinda,

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Speaker 1: who shot a final round sixty five and finished his

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Speaker 1: one shot out of the playoff, Alex Smalley, Ben Griffin.

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Speaker 1: They both kind of faded a bit at the very

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Speaker 1: end Nikolay Hoigard, who had a pair of chip in

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Speaker 1: eagles on the back nine Saturday, but only Campbell and

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Speaker 1: Pottkeeter made it to the playoff after they both birdied

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Speaker 1: the seventy second hole to finish one shot better than

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Speaker 1: Isaiah Clinda. Campbell and Pottkeeter went back to the eighteenth

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Speaker 1: to play that hole again and if they tied on

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Speaker 1: the first hole of sudden death, they'd play the eighteenth

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Speaker 1: a second time. Seemed like it should be a big

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Speaker 1: advantage for Potkeeter. It's a five hundred and forty yard

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Speaker 1: Part five, and we had a head to head matchup

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Speaker 1: between the longest did our on tour and the shortest

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Speaker 1: did are on tour. Well, they both made sloppy pars.

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Speaker 1: On the first hole of sudden death, Hootkeeter hit a

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Speaker 1: big drive but then hooked his approach shot. On the

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Speaker 1: second playoff, haul Potkeeter again another big drive, and then Campbell,

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Speaker 1: who had been so straight off the tee all week.

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Speaker 1: Hit a nasty slice that was just screaming towards the

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Speaker 1: trees and would have sailed over an out of bounds fence,

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Speaker 1: but it hit a tree that knocked it back into play.

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Speaker 1: Campbell then had to hit a layup still advantage pot Gater.

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Speaker 1: If he could hit the green with his approach, he'd

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Speaker 1: be well positioned, but Potkeater's approach caught the front punker.

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Speaker 1: Campbell then hit a terrific wedge to three and a

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Speaker 1: half feet. Potkeeter hit his bunker shot to six feet,

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Speaker 1: but at a tricky downhill putt, he missed it. Campbell

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Speaker 1: rolled in the short bird he putt for the win. Bo.

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Speaker 1: I had bet pot Geater to win, not gonna lie bo.

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Speaker 1: That was a painful end to the tournament. I came

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Speaker 1: one very friendly tree bounce away from a nice payout.

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Speaker 1: I did have a top five bet on Potkeeter at

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Speaker 1: twelve to one, and I did do some hedging on

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Speaker 1: Sunday by live betting Campbell and Aaron Rye. I was

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Speaker 1: able to get Campbell when he was still at four

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Speaker 1: to one, made a d size bet on him, so

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Speaker 1: I did make some money, but not as much as

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Speaker 1: I could have if the young twenty year old had

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Speaker 1: been able to break through, but man, his chipping and

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Speaker 1: pitching on Saturday pretty rough. Bo. You were all over

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Speaker 1: Jake Knapp at last year's Mexican Open. I thought we

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Speaker 1: were going to hit the jackpot two years running in Mexico,

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Speaker 1: but it was not to be your thoughts on the

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Speaker 1: Mexico Open.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I had tail Geo on the pot gater bet.

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Speaker 2: I made it known that that was a really good

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Speaker 2: bet because of the course fit. Nobody in their right mind,

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Speaker 2: at least I saw a couple people that had propped

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Speaker 2: up Brian Campbell as a long shot type of dart

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Speaker 2: throw that it was very few people. Very few people

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Speaker 2: who know anything about golf even know who Brian Campbell

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Speaker 2: is because of his journeyman status on tour, where he

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Speaker 2: really hadn't shown any success even on the corn Ferry

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Speaker 2: Tour level, which is why he had only played five

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Speaker 2: tour events since twenty seventeen. All of these guys are

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Speaker 2: so good that any given week can be we that

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Speaker 2: sets them and puts them on a different path. That

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Speaker 2: could be this last week for Brian Campbell winning a

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Speaker 2: PG Tour event on a long, long golf course with

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Speaker 2: my ball speed, that's pretty impressive that his short game

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Speaker 2: was dialed in, his putting was hot. He hit pretty

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Speaker 2: much every fairway, even though Potkeater had his chances. He

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Speaker 2: shot the sixty one to jump right out the gate,

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Speaker 2: and he just it's pretty cliche now listening to all

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Speaker 2: the reports and watching the final round unfold yesterday, but

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Speaker 2: a twenty year old on tour still has a lot

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Speaker 2: of nerves and not much experience on how to handle

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Speaker 2: those nerves. I think instead of going into the driver's

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Speaker 2: seat kind of mode. He was very careful and his

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Speaker 2: off the t accuracy didn't hurt him, but his approach

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Speaker 2: game really did. His approach game was awful, and it

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Speaker 2: put him into scrambling situations that he's simply not equipped

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Speaker 2: to take care of at this level. Even in the

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Speaker 2: Mexico Open, which he should have won pretty easily, that

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Speaker 2: was just kind of a learning lesson for all of

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Speaker 2: us betters and for pot Geeter himself. He's got a

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Speaker 2: bright future ahead of him. But I had done a

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Speaker 2: live bet on Isaiah Celinda when he stuck it close

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Speaker 2: to make a birdie and get within one shot of lead.

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Speaker 2: As soon as he stuck it to tap in range

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Speaker 2: for a birdie on the back nine. I put in

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Speaker 2: a nice bet for him at sixteen to one, and

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Speaker 2: he just missed the playoff with that final round sixty five.

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Speaker 2: That was another good, good thing to see out of

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Speaker 2: it was somebody from my area here, Isaiah Solinda from

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Speaker 2: NorCal went to Stanford. He's got a bright future ahead

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Speaker 2: of him too. The Mexico Opens kind of fun in

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Speaker 2: a resort campy kind of way, but yeah, we're looking

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Speaker 2: forward to this Florida Swing because it's kind of amazing

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Speaker 2: that the Mexico Open gives an invite to the Masters.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it is, And it would have been fun to

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Speaker 1: see Potkeeter at the Masters. The way he hits the ball, we.

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Speaker 2: Might still we might still we could.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that guy has such easy power, like uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, he hits a Bryson.

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Speaker 2: Bee boy, that a big boy.

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Speaker 1: He does have a nice uh a little bit of ballast,

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Speaker 1: a nice center of gravity. But you know, unlike Bryson

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Speaker 1: d Schambeau, who looks like he's gonna detonate on impact,

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Speaker 1: like pot Geter doesn't even look like he's swinging that hard.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's because he's he's a great core strength and flexibility.

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Speaker 2: He referenced his rugby background. Well, he's a really athletic

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Speaker 2: big guy, and so you could just see him even

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Speaker 2: though it looks effortless, that club head is whipping out

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Speaker 2: ninety four ball speed. That's insanity, it is.

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Speaker 1: And even when he was hitting the rough, he was

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Speaker 1: like easily out driving Steven Jeger played with him the

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Speaker 1: last two days. Yeager's a big hitter, and Potkeeter was

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Speaker 1: like out driving Yeger every time. Every time.

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Speaker 2: It's not even close. Like Jaeger's thirtieth in driving distance,

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Speaker 2: which is a good bomber of the golf ball and

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Speaker 2: Podkeater system in a world of his own. It's like

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Speaker 2: John Daily back in the nineties. Nobody was hitting the

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Speaker 2: ball that far either. So it's just maybe he's the

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Speaker 2: more calm, mild mannered version of John Daily that we

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Speaker 2: get in this generation.

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Speaker 1: Congrats to Brian Campbell, great story. We will discuss the

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Speaker 1: Cognizant Classic in just a moment, but first.

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Speaker 2: Download the free Betting pros app for iOS and Android

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Speaker 2: trial on the upgrade screen now.

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Speaker 1: The Florida Swing begins this week in Palm Beach Gardens

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Speaker 1: with the Cognizant Classic. Hum Beach Gardens is in southeastern

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Speaker 1: Florida along the Atlantic Coast. The tournament will be played

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Speaker 1: at PGA National. It's a par seventy one measuring seven

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Speaker 1: one hundred sixty seven yards. It's a shorter course, but

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Speaker 1: it's a tough course. PJA and National was designed by

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Speaker 1: Jack Nicholas the Golden Bear, and it is famous for

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Speaker 1: the Bear Trap. The fifteenth, sixteenth, and seventeenth holes one

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Speaker 1: of the toughest three hole stretches on the tour. The

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Speaker 1: fifteenth and seventeenth holes are par three's over water. Figuring

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Speaker 1: out the wind is often a challenge on those two

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Speaker 1: holes because with the course so close to the Atlantic,

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Speaker 1: it does get breezy and those winds tend to swirl

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Speaker 1: the sixteenth hole, a difficult par four with water down

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Speaker 1: the right side of the hole and in front of

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Speaker 1: the green, the field is going to be well over

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Speaker 1: par on the bear trap, probably a few hundred strokes

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Speaker 1: over par. Now. Even though PGA National is not a

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Speaker 1: very long course by PGA Tour standards, there are not

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Speaker 1: going to be all that many approach shots with wedges.

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Speaker 1: There are a lot of forced layups on this course

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Speaker 1: because of all the water, so short iron and middle

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Speaker 1: iron play often more important than wedge play here pg

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Speaker 1: National as Bermuda greens, and those greens and the course

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Speaker 1: in general tend to play firm and fast. These greens

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Speaker 1: are hard to hit, so scrambling ability is important. It

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Speaker 1: does help to be a Bermuda specialist. It also helps

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Speaker 1: to be a good wind player, and it helps to

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Speaker 1: be a grinder, the sort of player who is at

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Speaker 1: his best grinding out pars on difficult courses. Austin Ekrot

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Speaker 1: is the defending Cognizant Classic champion. He shot seventeen under

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Speaker 1: par here last year to win by three over Minwu

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Speaker 1: Lee and Eric van Royan. Chris Kirk won here in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, beating Eric cole In a playoff after

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Speaker 1: finishing fourteen under par Sepstraka one. In twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 1: finishing ten under par one shot better than Shane Lowry

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Speaker 1: and Matt Jones won the twenty twenty one Cognizant Classic

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Speaker 1: in a cake walk. He finished twelve under par, five

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Speaker 1: shots clear of the field. And by the way, pg

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Speaker 1: and National will play slightly easier relative to par than

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Speaker 1: it has in the past because the tenth hole was

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Speaker 1: changed from a long par four to a short par

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Speaker 1: five in time for last year's tournament. But nevertheless, you

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Speaker 1: can get to double digit under par here, you are

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Speaker 1: likely going to be in the haunt. The weather forecast

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Speaker 1: calls for temperatures in the upper seventies for most of

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Speaker 1: the tournament, with partly cloudy conditions and no imminent threat

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Speaker 1: of rain. Winds are expected to be in the five

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Speaker 1: to fifteen mile per hour range, but trust me, the

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Speaker 1: wind will be a factor at PGA National this week.

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Speaker 1: It always is. Bow What do you make of PGA National?

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Speaker 2: I am a huge sucker for Jack Nicholas designs because

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Speaker 2: they always have a three hole stretch on both nines.

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Speaker 2: There's a just as tough stretch of holes on the

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Speaker 2: front nine that gets very little to no fanfare than

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Speaker 2: the Bear Trap. Comparatively speaking, Jack Nicholas with his trio

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Speaker 2: of difficult holes. That's kind of his signature, but also

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Speaker 2: a departure from kind of what they've been doing with

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Speaker 2: professional golf courses setups going in other places is making

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Speaker 2: the courses longer to combat the technology that's never gonna work.

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Speaker 2: We see consistently tough scoring at golf courses that are

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Speaker 2: shorter like this because it causes you to think, if

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Speaker 2: the greens are fast, the rough is penal the water

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Speaker 2: hazards are well positioned, the tour players are going to

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Speaker 2: have more trouble with speed on the greens and difficult

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Speaker 2: conditions just by penalizing bad shots. If you penalize bad

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Speaker 2: shots and reward good shots, you're gonna get something like

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Speaker 2: this Cognizant Classic formerly and affectionately known in my memory

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Speaker 2: as the Honda Classic. This isn't my Honda Classic anymore.

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Speaker 2: But PJ National is the perfect salvo for the Florida

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Speaker 2: Swing because it's like, hey, you're gonna have the players

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Speaker 2: in a couple of weeks, another positional golf course that

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Speaker 2: rewards good shot making and severely penalizes bad shot making.

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Speaker 2: You're going to get a nice champion of this that's

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Speaker 2: going to be accurate, consistent and smart working their way

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Speaker 2: around the course.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the leaderboard can be volable here because we are

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Speaker 1: going to see some double bogies and worse this week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so love to see it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no lead is safe here. Now we'll get to

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Speaker 1: the Cognizant Classic Odds. All odds our courtesy of DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: As of Monday morning, it's not a star studded field.

248
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Speaker 1: A lot of the big names are sitting this one out.

249
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Speaker 1: Favorite is Shane Lowry at twenty to one, Sung j

250
00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:33,240
Speaker 1: M Sepstraca and Russell Henley are twenty two to one,

251
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Speaker 1: Daniel Berger is twenty eight to one, Taylor Pendrith and

252
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Speaker 1: minwoo Lee are thirty to one, Keith Mitchell, Denny McCarthy

253
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Speaker 1: and Ben On are thirty five to one, and Jordan Speith,

254
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Speaker 1: Davis Thompson and Cameron Young are forty to one. Who

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Speaker 1: do you like from this group?

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Speaker 2: Bo so right off the top. I love Shane Lowry

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Speaker 2: should have won in twenty twenty two, but a gale

258
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Speaker 2: forced storm came through and wiped away his chances. At

259
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Speaker 2: the last minute in favor of Sepstraca, which is kind

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Speaker 2: of get left a lot of people chasing Sepstraca's success.

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Speaker 2: Ever since there, Shane Lowry has been a consistent performer

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Speaker 2: at this event as well as in general on these

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Speaker 2: types of golf courses. The shorter yardage, the positional, the smart,

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Speaker 2: the grinder. You checked all his boxes. All of those

265
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Speaker 2: tell me Shane Lowry is a favorite here. And to

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Speaker 2: get a favorite at twenty to one on a golf

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Speaker 2: course that he knows and plays very well, I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: start right there. I'm not gonna say, hey, let's not

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Speaker 2: go for the favorite because he's the favorite. It's all

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Speaker 2: relative in this game. And if I'm getting twenty to

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Speaker 2: one odds and a guy that I really think should

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Speaker 2: win this tournament in this level of field, Shane Lowry

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Speaker 2: is a really excellent choice to start off there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Perennial Ryder Copper, world class player going against a

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Speaker 1: weaker field, twenty to one is not a bad price.

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Speaker 1: And Lowry you mentioned how well he's played this course.

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Speaker 1: Baw three straight top five finishes at the Colognism Classic,

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Speaker 1: and the big Irishman is obviously one of the best

279
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Speaker 1: players win players in the world. That gives him an

280
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Speaker 1: edge at PGA National. Russell Henley bow like I'm always

281
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Speaker 1: interested in Russell Henley on Bermuda grass, and he is.

282
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Speaker 1: He's been dangerous on the Florida courses. Henley was forty

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Speaker 1: first here last year, but in his two previous appearances

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Speaker 1: at pg National he finished eighth in twenty twenty and

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Speaker 1: third in twenty twenty one. He's also finished top ten

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Speaker 1: in two of his last three events, so I like him.

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Speaker 1: Sung Jim one here in twenty twenty and was top

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Speaker 1: ten in twenty twenty one, but Im has finished out

289
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Speaker 1: of the top thirty in each of his last three tournaments,

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Speaker 1: not coming in great form. You mentioned Sepstraca before he

291
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Speaker 1: won the Cognizant Classic in twenty twenty two, followed it

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Speaker 1: up with a fifth place finish in twenty twenty three,

293
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Speaker 1: won the Amex in January. Has finished fifteenth or better

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Speaker 1: in three of his six starts this season, so he

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Speaker 1: comes in with some momentum. Daniel Berger another Bermuda guy.

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Speaker 1: I missed the cut at the Cognizant Classic a year ago,

297
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Speaker 1: but finished fourth in his two previous trips to West

298
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Speaker 1: Palm Beach. He's been on a bit of a heater

299
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Speaker 1: Burger was second at the Phoenix Open, twelfth at the

300
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Speaker 1: Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. Who else? Keith Mitchell's been

301
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Speaker 1: kind of a horse for the Corspo one at PGA

302
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Speaker 1: National in twenty nineteen and has finished top ten in

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Speaker 1: each of his last two cognizance and Minwu Lee finished

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Speaker 1: second here last year and has finished inside the top

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Speaker 1: twenty three of his last four events.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and there's two guys here that I will be

307
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Speaker 2: betting on, and I'm just going to let you know.

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Speaker 2: They're both kind of guys that I haven't bet on

309
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Speaker 2: in a really long time, but I'm actually excited to

310
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Speaker 2: at thirty five to one, Your guy, ben On. Ben

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Speaker 2: On is kind of a sneaky pick here because of

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Speaker 2: his tee degreen game, very accurate driver of the golf

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Speaker 2: ball off the tee. Metrics are insane for ben On,

314
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Speaker 2: and he's been finding a pretty good putting stroke lately.

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Speaker 2: His usual weakness is on approach. He's still kind of

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Speaker 2: middle of the pack there at worst. This is a

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Speaker 2: guy who around the green is pretty good. He's a

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Speaker 2: really good in the buckets that we're using from one

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Speaker 2: fifty to one seventy five. He's twentieth best in this field.

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Speaker 2: It's just a scoring machine. Second, he's He's just a

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Speaker 2: guy that I really think can do well with his

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Speaker 2: ball striking here, and the way he works his way

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Speaker 2: around the greens is fourth in this field in strokes

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Speaker 2: gained around the green. So Ben on thirty five to

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Speaker 2: one is a great number for me. And call me crazy,

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Speaker 2: but I think Jordan Speed is back. And Jordan Speith,

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Speaker 2: for all his words off the tee, those aren't usually

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Speaker 2: on golf courses where drivers required. He's gonna be hitting

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Speaker 2: a lot of irons off the tee. He's gonna hit

330
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Speaker 2: a lot of fairway metals hybrids off the tees here.

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Speaker 2: The force layups really help Jordan Spith here because he's

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Speaker 2: a world class approach player, especially on these Florida courses.

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Speaker 2: Opportunities gained, He's putting himself in position to score. And

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Speaker 2: there's not a better scrambler on planet Earth than Jordan Speith.

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Speaker 2: So I think at forty to one, we're getting the

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Speaker 2: peak long number for Jordan Speith that we're gonna see.

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Speaker 2: This is the guy who's too talented to continue to

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Speaker 2: struggle like he has the last couple of years. I

339
00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:18,639
Speaker 2: think we're already seeing Jordan Speed turn the corner. And

340
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Speaker 2: to get him at forty to one in a field

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Speaker 2: this week is pretty awesome.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that is a good price against a soccer field bow.

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Speaker 1: And like you said, when Jordan Speith can put the

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Speaker 1: driver away, that greatly improves his chances.

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Speaker 2: Always, you know, because he's gonna find every corner of

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Speaker 2: the property with that long stick.

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Speaker 1: Yes, sir, Let's look at some of the mid range options.

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Speaker 1: We've got Kurt Kitty, Yama, JJ Spahn, Ben Griff and

349
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Speaker 1: Michael Kim and Max Grazerman at forty five to one.

350
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Speaker 1: At fifty to one are Luke Clinton, Lucas Glover, Gary Woodland,

351
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Speaker 1: Billy Horschell defending Champ, Austin ech Wrote, Ricky Fowler, Andrew Novak,

352
00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:58,160
Speaker 1: Alex Smalley and Patrick Rogers, Johnny Vegas, Harry Hall, Brian Harmon,

353
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Speaker 1: Nikolai Hoygard, Taylor Moore and Christian Bizutenhaut are fifty five

354
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Speaker 1: to one, Bo Hostler sixty to one, and it's sixty

355
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Speaker 1: five to one are Chris Kirk, Bud Callie and Seamus Power.

356
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Speaker 1: Quite a few guys bunched between forty five to one

357
00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:16,040
Speaker 1: and sixty five to one ball. Is there anyone you

358
00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:16,920
Speaker 1: like from this group?

359
00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:20,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's one guy I'm betting on and that's Chris

360
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Speaker 2: kirk At. I believe he's sixty five to one right now.

361
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Speaker 2: That's a really nice number for a guy who's who's

362
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Speaker 2: done well on the Florida Swing in the past, really

363
00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:32,760
Speaker 2: solid ball striker, really good on approach, and he's just

364
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Speaker 2: simply a well rounded player. There's only one week spot

365
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Speaker 2: on the stat model here, and that's proximity from one

366
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Speaker 2: seventy five to two hundred. Other than that, he's top

367
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Speaker 2: twenty in every category that I measured. So Chris Kirk

368
00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:47,399
Speaker 2: for me is too he's too long on the on

369
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Speaker 2: the books right now, So I'm going to get my

370
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Speaker 2: hands on some top ten bets for him as well

371
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Speaker 2: as an outright on sixty five to one, and watch

372
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Speaker 2: out for Bud Callie Bud cally Is. I'm not sure

373
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Speaker 2: I want to bet him this week because I haven't

374
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Speaker 2: seen him do much lately, but this is a guy

375
00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:07,880
Speaker 2: who has the type of game to perform well. He's

376
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Speaker 2: a quintessential grinder. Second in this field in Bogie Avoidance

377
00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:15,160
Speaker 2: top ten from Tita Green, number three in short game.

378
00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:17,360
Speaker 2: This is a guy who can make some noise here

379
00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:19,920
Speaker 2: in the right conditions. I want to see it from him,

380
00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,479
Speaker 2: but I wouldn't be surprised if Bud Coley showed up

381
00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:23,359
Speaker 2: showed up this week.

382
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Speaker 1: Speaking of grinders, bo Billy Horschell one of those guys

383
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Speaker 1: who does his best work on tough courses. In his

384
00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:33,159
Speaker 1: last in Florida, yea, and in Florida exactly. In his

385
00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:37,440
Speaker 1: last eight trips to PG National five top twenties, three

386
00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:40,960
Speaker 1: top ten, So I'm very interested in Billy Horschell, your guy.

387
00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:45,200
Speaker 1: Kurkitti Yama hasn't played the Cognizan Classics since twenty two

388
00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:48,200
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, but he did finish third in that event.

389
00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,000
Speaker 1: Hasn't been in good form though missed the cut last

390
00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:54,640
Speaker 1: week in Mexico. Michael Kims a guy worth mentioning. He's

391
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:58,160
Speaker 1: been playing really well. He's finished top fifteen in each

392
00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 1: of his last three tournaments, each of the last three weeks,

393
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 1: including a second place finish at the Phoenix Open. That

394
00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:08,440
Speaker 1: sort of kickstarted this hot streak. Andrew Novak top fifteen

395
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:10,880
Speaker 1: and three of his last four events and finished ninth

396
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:15,119
Speaker 1: Cognizant Classic last year. Alex Smalley another guy who's on

397
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:17,680
Speaker 1: a roll, top twenty five and four of his five

398
00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:21,639
Speaker 1: events this year. And Gary Woodland BO a guy you've

399
00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:24,400
Speaker 1: kind of liked in some other events this year. He's

400
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 1: had three top ten finishes at PGA Nationals since twenty

401
00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:30,520
Speaker 1: seventeen and has been in pretty good for him this season.

402
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:34,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, he has. He's a great approach player, so that's

403
00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:35,000
Speaker 2: going to serve him well.

404
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:38,359
Speaker 1: Here, what about long shots BO anyone seventy to one

405
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:39,440
Speaker 1: or longer?

406
00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 2: Yes, you know it. This is actually a great event

407
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:47,600
Speaker 2: for taking shots at long shots because there's a lot

408
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:49,639
Speaker 2: of swings in the scores. You're going to see some

409
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 2: surprise guys make the cut. You're going to see some

410
00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:55,359
Speaker 2: favorites miss the cut this week. For sure. This golf

411
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:59,479
Speaker 2: course will penalize bad form. Even guys that come in

412
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 2: red hot have faltered at this event. So don't be

413
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:06,320
Speaker 2: surprised if you see some favorites completely flame out. And

414
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,880
Speaker 2: there's gonna be some really deep odds guys that will

415
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 2: make the cut and make noise here. I'm starting with

416
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:14,240
Speaker 2: Tom Hogy at one hundred and ten, to one, one

417
00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:17,200
Speaker 2: of the best approach players in the game. This golf

418
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 2: course demands second shots. You're gonna be putting irons in

419
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 2: the fairway. You're gonna have to hit the ball close

420
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:27,359
Speaker 2: scramble if you miss the greens. Tom Hogy awful, awful

421
00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:29,719
Speaker 2: short game. Luckily, he's one of the best approach players

422
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 2: in the game. But one hundred and ten to one

423
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:33,880
Speaker 2: for his skill level on this type of course, it's

424
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:37,159
Speaker 2: too good of a fit. Carl Phillips v I l

425
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 2: I PS two hundred to one. Very talented corn Fairy

426
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:44,200
Speaker 2: Tour graduate. This guy's going to be a very special

427
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:48,120
Speaker 2: player going forward. He's he's the kind of guy who

428
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:51,359
Speaker 2: can score in these tough conditions. So he's either going

429
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 2: to miss the cut by a million, or he's going

430
00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 2: to shoot a low score on Thursday and Friday and

431
00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 2: have everybody going crazy again. And then I have one

432
00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:03,120
Speaker 2: more that's getting plus nine hundred odds just to make

433
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 2: the top twenty, and that's William Mao m O U W.

434
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 2: William Mao is another next generation type player lots of

435
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 2: ability four hundred to one outright. Phillips is at two

436
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:19,680
Speaker 2: hundred and one outright and plus six hundred for a

437
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:22,719
Speaker 2: top twenty. I'm gonna be taking shots on Hillips and

438
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 2: Mao just for the simple sake that they're getting incredibly

439
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:31,119
Speaker 2: good payouts for just because they're not known by anybody.

440
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 2: There's some sharps obviously in our industry that know who

441
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:39,160
Speaker 2: everybody is, maybe except for Brian Campbell, but it's these

442
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:42,480
Speaker 2: are guys that we more expect to do well in

443
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:46,200
Speaker 2: these events more than a journeyman who hasn't done anything.

444
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:49,919
Speaker 2: Mao and Hllips, those guys have had recent success on

445
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 2: the lower tours and have earned their way to this level.

446
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:55,480
Speaker 2: We're going to start to see some noise from this

447
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:59,040
Speaker 2: next wave of PGA tour of players.

448
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 1: What are the odds on maus a top twenty again

449
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 1: plus nine hundred nine hunt Okay, nine to one for

450
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 1: a top twenty? Not bad, not bad, not bad at all.

451
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 1: So these guys aren't real long shots. But Lee Hodges

452
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:15,920
Speaker 1: and Eric Cole are both seventy five to one. Hodges

453
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,920
Speaker 1: has two top fifteens here in his last three trips

454
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 1: and two top tens on the tour this season, so

455
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 1: seventy five to one seems like a pretty good price.

456
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 1: I think his a game sort of fits this course.

457
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 1: Eric Cole finished second here two years ago, really good

458
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 1: with the short irons, so those guys intrigue me, and

459
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 1: then for a longer shot Bough two hundred and fifty

460
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 1: to one. Danny Willett, former Masters Champion, Yes, finish top

461
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:47,200
Speaker 1: ten in his most recent tour event, the Farmers Insurance Open,

462
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,439
Speaker 1: and he's had pretty decent finishes in his last two

463
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,000
Speaker 1: trips to PJ Nationals. So two hundred and fifty to

464
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 1: one seems like kind of a bargain for Danny Willett,

465
00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 1: a guy I might be looking to get in on

466
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 1: and then hedge out on if he's anywhere near the

467
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:06,399
Speaker 1: leader board for the weekend. All right, let's get to

468
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,119
Speaker 1: the early betting cards, BO, who do you have on yours?

469
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 1: As of now?

470
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 2: I have Shane Lower at twenty to one. I have

471
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:17,120
Speaker 2: been on thirty five to one, Jordan Speeth forty to one,

472
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 2: Chris Kirk sixty five to one with the top ten kicker,

473
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 2: and then Tom Hogy at one hundred and ten to one,

474
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 2: Carl Phillips two hundred to one and a top twenty

475
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:30,640
Speaker 2: at plus six hundred, and William Mao four hundred to one,

476
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 2: and a plus nine hundred on his top twenty big card.

477
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 2: I'll probably sprinkle even money across the board, just kind

478
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:41,879
Speaker 2: of taper it based on confidence level I've already handicapped.

479
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 2: This is one of actually the first event of the

480
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 2: season where I've been able to successfully feel good about

481
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 2: handicapping these guys. We're starting to get some data running in,

482
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:55,399
Speaker 2: which is it's very helpful because early in the season

483
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:58,640
Speaker 2: we're all shooting in the dark based on previous results

484
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:02,679
Speaker 2: in recent form. Is it's probably from the silly season

485
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 2: over the last fall. It's been. It's been tough until

486
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 2: this point. I feel like we're finally getting into the

487
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 2: part of the season where the data actually rings true.

488
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 2: We can actually get some useful knowledge from what we've

489
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 2: seen so far.

490
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:19,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's finally you can look at the twenty twenty

491
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 1: five stats. Finally there's enough of a body of work

492
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 1: that they hold some water. A couple of weeks ago,

493
00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 1: you couldn't really say that. So Yeah, So I like

494
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 1: both Shane Lowry and Russell Henley. I feel like I

495
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 1: have to pick a lane with my favorites, and I'm

496
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 1: picking the Russell Henley lane this week. Bo I've got

497
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,560
Speaker 1: him at twenty two to one. I've got Billy Horsseel

498
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 1: at fifty to one, with a top five kicker at

499
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,680
Speaker 1: nine to one, betting Lee Hodges and Eric Cole those

500
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 1: two seventy five to one shots I was talking about.

501
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 1: I've also got a top ten kicker on Hodges at

502
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 1: six to one, and I'm betting Danny Willett at two

503
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:58,199
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty to one. Now for the one and

504
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 1: done competition, I Sam Stevens last week, Bo, he missed

505
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 1: the cuts. I'm just gonna blame you since he was

506
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 1: number one in your model last week, and you got

507
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 1: to go first and I got to go first, so

508
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 1: you had Rasmus Hoyguard. He tied for thirty fourth good

509
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:17,480
Speaker 1: four to thirty five thousand dollars one hundred thirty five

510
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 1: and sixty dollars. Not a lot of blood last week.

511
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:24,960
Speaker 1: But you're up first this week. BO, Who are you taking?

512
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 2: How about you use Saint Lowry, haven't I I think

513
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 2: you have? Yeah? I used him in Pebble Beach, I believe.

514
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 2: So I'm going to go with Jordan Speith.

515
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 1: Jordan Speith it is. I am going to take Russell Henley.

516
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:42,919
Speaker 1: I'm all in on Russell Henley this week and that

517
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:45,400
Speaker 1: is going to do it for the Betting Pros PGA podcast.

518
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 1: We will be back next week to preview a big one,

519
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 1: the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Until then, so along everyone.

520
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:55,679
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast.

521
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 1: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

522
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:01,200
Speaker 1: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

523
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 1: or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting

524
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:08,159
Speaker 1: Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to

525
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:22,640
Speaker 1: our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros