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Speaker 1: Ye, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jaily.

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Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance,

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Speaker 1: investment and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg This

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Speaker 1: is what Bloomberg Surveillance is all about. Edward Morris with

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Speaker 1: a subsidy group, with his work on international relations, geopolitics,

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Speaker 1: and of course commodities for the bank. Ed Morris expect

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Speaker 1: the unexpected, or maybe the shocks come away from the

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Speaker 1: certitude of looking at Syria or that I'm looking at

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Speaker 1: a dollar Turkish lira of four seventeen, which screams to

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Speaker 1: me instabilities. What's the instability in the region you're focused on? Uh?

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Speaker 1: Is you use all of the research capabilities of your bank.

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Speaker 1: I don't know where to start on this. Uh there's uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, putting aside what's happening with the Turkish lyra.

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Speaker 1: These are all economies in the Gulf that are pegged

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Speaker 1: to the US dollar. They've benefited remarkably by uh what's

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Speaker 1: happened with the price of oil? Um the pressure on

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Speaker 1: them too. Deepegg has gone away. Um uh and um.

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Speaker 1: What's next is really know how these economies going to

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Speaker 1: adjust to this new world of getting out of oil.

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Speaker 1: It screams shuttle diplomacy, except we don't have a Secretary

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Speaker 1: of State to get on the shuttle right not yet,

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Speaker 1: and it remains to be seen whether he's going to

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Speaker 1: be confirmed by the Senate. What do you make of

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Speaker 1: the price section that we've seen over the last couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks, said, because I'm looking at this risk off

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Speaker 1: move and I'm saying risk off with inverted commas on

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Speaker 1: either side, because treasuries a bit, yes, but yields it

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Speaker 1: down like three bay Sis points and Dolly ends off

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Speaker 1: by about a third of one percent. And I think

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Speaker 1: if you look at the equity market alone, you would

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Speaker 1: think something very vicious has been happening in the market

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Speaker 1: over the last couple of weeks. But everything house seems

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Speaker 1: to be holding up Cross asset, and I think, Tom,

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Speaker 1: what's been really interesting over the last couple of weeks

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Speaker 1: is that this risk on risk off regime of the

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Speaker 1: last few years has changed. It used to be sal

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Speaker 1: equities by treasuries in a proportional amount and do the

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Speaker 1: same thing with the Japanese yen, and I don't see

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Speaker 1: that in the same way anymore. What's changed, dead Well,

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Speaker 1: one of the things that's changed we haven't talked about

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Speaker 1: it is a commodity is actually outperformed both equities and

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Speaker 1: bonds in the first quarter. Uh. That's something to keep

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Speaker 1: your eye on, and we can talk a lot about that.

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Speaker 1: Another thing that's changed is the I think there's been

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Speaker 1: an acceleration of risk on risk off. One of the

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Speaker 1: things to worry about is with this risk on risk

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Speaker 1: off have been massive inflows of debt issuance and equity

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Speaker 1: investments into emerging markets and out of emerging markets. And

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Speaker 1: that's that's also flirted with the notion that growth is

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Speaker 1: not quite as stable as it might be. So when

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Speaker 1: you look at the situation worldwide, do you actually see

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Speaker 1: a firm macro backdrop, because there are some people starting

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Speaker 1: to question that. I imagine I'll speak to many investors

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Speaker 1: today and I'll talk to them about this geopolitical risk

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Speaker 1: store and they will say shore in the short term,

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Speaker 1: it's it's going to be a sentiment driven story. What

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Speaker 1: this means for markets expects the more volatility, but the

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Speaker 1: fundamentals will re assert them sounds earning season is going

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Speaker 1: to start and a macro backdrop is still firm. Is

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Speaker 1: the macro backdrop still as firm as people say it is, Well,

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Speaker 1: it looks like that's it's fraying at the edges. There

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Speaker 1: are a lot of data points that are coming in

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Speaker 1: that show weakness, that show that the growth may in

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Speaker 1: fact be impacted. And that's that's the problem of the

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Speaker 1: brinksmanship that we're seeing on the trade front. Where brinksmanship

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Speaker 1: when you when you draw lines in the sand and

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Speaker 1: somebody says they're not going to budge, what do you do?

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Speaker 1: What would you say to General Matters Right now? I

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Speaker 1: don't know what you say to the State Department. I'm

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Speaker 1: sure I don't know what you say to the sixty

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Speaker 1: under Pennsylvania Avenue. But with all of your years of experience,

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Speaker 1: what do you say to the Secretary Defense into our military? Well, yeah,

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Speaker 1: they're they're the last bastions of consensus politics, and and

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Speaker 1: you've got to assume that the military, given their organization,

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Speaker 1: are going to tow the line. So that's the encouragement

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Speaker 1: that they need, and that's the voice of reason that's

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Speaker 1: that's required. I mean, within that is the surgical strikes

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Speaker 1: certitude that we've all seen within modern warfare, you know,

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Speaker 1: whether it was the advent of air the air force,

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Speaker 1: or whatever. We can be surgical and your experience of

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Speaker 1: the Middle East, surgical really doesn't work, doesn't now the

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Speaker 1: danger in the Middle East, and and maybe you know,

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Speaker 1: maybe there's something that will will will unmask, uh what's happening.

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Speaker 1: But uh, Now, Russia's an economy that's slightly bigger than

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Speaker 1: the state of Florida, slightly smaller than the state of

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Speaker 1: New York, and they've been managing to do something on

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Speaker 1: the global front, partly because of what's happened with their

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Speaker 1: relationship with Saudi Arabia on the oil side, that that

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Speaker 1: has made them seem a lot more powerful than they

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Speaker 1: actually are. So maybe we're gonna see something resulting from that.

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Speaker 1: Edward Morris, thank you so much, greatly appreciate your effort

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Speaker 1: to come in today for an extended period with Bloomberg surveillance.

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Speaker 1: Dr Morris, of course, with City Group running all of

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Speaker 1: their commodity or with us right now Gary Shilling on inflation. Gary,

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Speaker 1: the big deal right now and with the data here

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Speaker 1: in forty minutes is the base effect the base effect

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Speaker 1: is where and the fourteenth and the fifteen month drifts away.

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Speaker 1: How do you respond to people saying, well, inflation is

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Speaker 1: going to be higher because is the base effect? Well, there,

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Speaker 1: there certainly isn't effect. I mean, if you go back

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Speaker 1: to all months, of course it was a reverse that

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Speaker 1: was reversed. And that's what you're that's what you're talking about.

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Speaker 1: But I think it's more important to concentrate on the future.

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Speaker 1: And one are the basic forces there. And you know,

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Speaker 1: we're in a globalized world. There's a lot of deflationary

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Speaker 1: forces there. You're seeing lower inflation and medical medical care

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Speaker 1: and education. You're seeing Amazon what they're doing to bricks

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Speaker 1: and mortar stores and prices. Uh, And you know, I

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Speaker 1: I think they're just there are a lot of downwards pressure.

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Speaker 1: Let's rip up the script here, folks. That's what we

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Speaker 1: do on Bloomberg surveillance. Hn Farrell demands I do it

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Speaker 1: once a day. Gary, you went there. It is stunning.

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Speaker 1: The second derivative of empty stores in this nation. Everyone,

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Speaker 1: even his his arch angry opposites, agree with President Trump.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of empty stores. How does that market clear?

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Speaker 1: A wise one, one would hope, And and and a

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Speaker 1: lot of areas they tear down the buildings and make

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Speaker 1: parking lots. But but you know, but rental price can

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Speaker 1: come down. And that's a very heavily leveraged business time

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Speaker 1: as you know, and so there's no reason that those

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Speaker 1: rental rates can't come down. But you know that the

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Speaker 1: reality is it isn't going to get any any easier.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you pull out your your spark, your smartphone,

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Speaker 1: you got an app there, you push a couple of

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Speaker 1: a couple of buttons and you can find the absolute

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Speaker 1: lowest price. You know, there is no ability to compete

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Speaker 1: on everything is coming in years decades of experience at

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Speaker 1: Mary Lynch and inventing market economics. I'm gonna say with that,

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Speaker 1: Hyman is well, maybe you're denial throw in there is well,

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Speaker 1: Gary Shilling, how do you clear and absolutely unique tobaccle

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Speaker 1: in real estate? Which is what we all observe. Everybody

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Speaker 1: listening to this program coast to coast is observing it. Well,

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Speaker 1: what happens is that at at a long enough price, uh,

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Speaker 1: those buildings are worth something you have to convert into

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Speaker 1: alternative spaces. Now that's what's happening to malls today. Of course,

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Speaker 1: because you're seeing they put in fitness centers, they put

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Speaker 1: in restaurants, UH, they put in they put in movie

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Speaker 1: theaters and so on. But that still means that they

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Speaker 1: don't replace them at the same rental rates. Because anchor

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Speaker 1: stores UH generate a lot more traffic and they support

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Speaker 1: a lot of the small jewelry stores and sestionary stores,

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Speaker 1: and the severe she have to mark the price down,

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Speaker 1: in other words, the market in price, and the text

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Speaker 1: is that the landlord pays have to clear it will

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Speaker 1: lower rate. Well, that's that's right. And of course this

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Speaker 1: is what this does is it puts a lot of

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Speaker 1: pressure on everything. It puts pressure on the municipalities and

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Speaker 1: point out because of the taxes, it pulls pressure on

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Speaker 1: the area. You look at a lot of of areas

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Speaker 1: in this country and tremendous amount of of suburban housing

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Speaker 1: real estate is around malls. You know where where I am,

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Speaker 1: Short Hills, New Jersey. They built a Short Hills mall

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Speaker 1: basically to UH to Prudential did this because they were

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Speaker 1: developing a huge amount of land around there for residential

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Speaker 1: right after World War Two, and that mall was really

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Speaker 1: there to in effect attract people into this residential area,

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Speaker 1: and that's obviously far from unique. So you do have

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Speaker 1: a lot more than just the retail stores, particularly in

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Speaker 1: the case of the malls. To switch your back to

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Speaker 1: showing one oh one, do you stay in your newsletter

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Speaker 1: with lower rates? And how low is the Is there

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Speaker 1: a new low? I should say for Gary showing is

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Speaker 1: it a higher low? I don't. I don't think so.

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Speaker 1: You know, I've been of the opinion that we would

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Speaker 1: get to two percent on the thirty year bond and

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Speaker 1: one percent on the ten uere and I don't see

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Speaker 1: any reason to change that. I just think there's an

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Speaker 1: awful lot of We're in an excess supply world, and

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Speaker 1: I don't think that's going to change. You labor markets

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Speaker 1: are tightening up in this country. But unless we're gonna

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Speaker 1: unless Trump is gonna build not only a wall in

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Speaker 1: the Mexican border, but a terrible wall completely around the country,

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Speaker 1: you're really you're really faced with a whole globalization effect.

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Speaker 1: It's a huge coal Gary. What's the what's the time

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Speaker 1: arising for that? Cool? Because I think many people would say,

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Speaker 1: but it's the next recession. Then I think a lot

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Speaker 1: of people might say that could make sense because we

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Speaker 1: hit around mark on a ten year and we weren't

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Speaker 1: in a recession. So is it the next recession you're

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Speaker 1: thinking about, or is it in this cycle? What's the

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Speaker 1: time arising for the cool? Well? Uh, one of the

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Speaker 1: great forecasters of history say you should forecast what will

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Speaker 1: happen or when it will happen, but not both. Yes,

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Speaker 1: I'm not dumb enough to put a put an exact

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Speaker 1: timeline on that, John, But but I do think that

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Speaker 1: is in the cars. And you say, I mean, you

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Speaker 1: look at this, you look at the situation today, and

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Speaker 1: given the fact that everybody is screaming about tight labor

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Speaker 1: markets and and that's where inflation only starts to his eyes,

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Speaker 1: and where are you? You know, you're below three percent

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Speaker 1: on the third ear The characteristics of the treasury market

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Speaker 1: has adapted somewhat in the last couple of months, though

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Speaker 1: on a morning like today, with features down quite hard,

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Speaker 1: you've only got a bid that comes into treasuries that

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Speaker 1: generates a move of negative three basis points. Were down

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Speaker 1: three basis points on the US tenure now in in

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Speaker 1: risk off of previous years, we might have been bound

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Speaker 1: down ten perhaps even fifteen. We aren't seeing these big

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Speaker 1: haven flows rush into treasuries in periods of risk aversion.

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Speaker 1: Something's changed, Gary, can you put your finger on it? No,

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Speaker 1: you're right. As a matter of fact our April newsletter.

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Speaker 1: I look at that because it is it is. It

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Speaker 1: is strange because when when you saw the starting in

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Speaker 1: early February, when you saw the collapse of the of

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Speaker 1: the of the volatility trade, the vixed trade, uh, you

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Speaker 1: did not get the normal rush into treasuries and gold.

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Speaker 1: And I think there are offsetting things. I mean, one is,

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Speaker 1: people are worried about inflation, they're worried about big government deposition.

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Speaker 1: Of course, you've got to you've got to at least

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Speaker 1: one trillion over ten years for the tax cuts, and

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Speaker 1: another three billion for the two year uh two year

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Speaker 1: spending bill. And then behind that you've got the retiring

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Speaker 1: post for our baby, social Security, medicare funding those things.

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Speaker 1: And then and we talked about this on TV earlier time,

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Speaker 1: about about about down the road, military spending and infrastructure.

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Speaker 1: You've got a lot of things. And now I don't

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Speaker 1: think those are going to be that I don't. I

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Speaker 1: think the the treasures will, they'll they'll find homes in

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Speaker 1: race will be lower. But there's a lot of concern

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Speaker 1: about that right now. And I think this is this

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Speaker 1: is holding off what normally would be a greater rush.

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Speaker 1: Finally dr showing the zite guys just three to four

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Speaker 1: rate increases this year. It's April, we're dashing to May.

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Speaker 1: I believe it's the schedule right now. Does that crack?

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Speaker 1: Do we do? We do we reset with all the

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Speaker 1: discourse and the finale seeing a message? Do we? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: That what you see like June, July, August. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: really suspect there will be a dialing back. I mean again,

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Speaker 1: the Fed does one higher race. They'd like to have

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Speaker 1: some higher race to cut when the next recession comes

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Speaker 1: along the ground. As John was pointing out, Uh, you

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Speaker 1: also have their tremendous concern about the speculation to take

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Speaker 1: a look at bitcoin and everything in between that hedge

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Speaker 1: funds of private equity people have so zealous for yielded.

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Speaker 1: FED worries about that. Uh. But at the same time

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Speaker 1: they've they've got this lack of inflation and that that

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Speaker 1: really is bothering him now. They basically have said this

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Speaker 1: is a one off deal. Uh, you know, Yelling kept

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Speaker 1: saying it was it was a matter of the of

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Speaker 1: the cell phone race coming down, and then medical care UH, Medicaid, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: Powell has adopted some of the same policy. But when

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Speaker 1: you get a series of one offs after a while,

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Speaker 1: you say, that's a trend showing thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: This great all the time on Bloomberg television and radio

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Speaker 1: with Bloomberg surveillance. Before we had president's tweeting, we had

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Speaker 1: people writing thoughtful books about people and changing things. You

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Speaker 1: should be David Kirkpatrick, and of course many of you

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Speaker 1: that know me know my rave review of The Facebook Effect.

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Speaker 1: It is not a dated book. It is a wonderful

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Speaker 1: window into a young Zuckerberg. Your book, The Facebook Effect.

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Speaker 1: We've moved on from that, haven't we, David. It was

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Speaker 1: a different moment, So we're having a Facebook Effect. I

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Speaker 1: think that could be absolutely agreed upon. But certainly my

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Speaker 1: book was, you know, an introduction to a company that

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Speaker 1: you know, the book came out originally in so people

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Speaker 1: really didn't even realize it was important at that time.

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Speaker 1: But what really brought their ten to do it was

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Speaker 1: the I P O. Of course, and it it you know,

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Speaker 1: did it well then? And then it dropped because they

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Speaker 1: didn't get mobile and he came back, and Zuckerberg showed

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Speaker 1: great leadership in that period. But I think what we've

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Speaker 1: really learned, and what I think even he's learned even

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Speaker 1: this week, is that he hasn't shown enough leadership when

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Speaker 1: it came to certain key things around privacy and security.

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Speaker 1: And you know, it's it's shocking to me that they

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Speaker 1: made so many oversights when it came to that area.

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Speaker 1: But I will say, listening to the hearings yesterday and

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Speaker 1: spending too much of my time thinking about this company,

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Speaker 1: I am relatively cautiously optimistic that they are moving in

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Speaker 1: a direction that will be extremely productive for them and

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Speaker 1: for society, because that's where we've gotten to that. It's

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Speaker 1: the relationship with society is the thing that matters of Facebook.

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Speaker 1: They are that globe spanning, that influential in our daily lives.

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Speaker 1: David Kirkpatrick, I'm just curious if you are covering any

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Speaker 1: other company, and there had been a situation in which

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Speaker 1: years prior to an event, there was a mess up

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Speaker 1: of this magnitude that caused the CEO to have to

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Speaker 1: appear before Congress, and there was an actual paper slash

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Speaker 1: email trail that connected various executives Okay, well, um, I

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Speaker 1: don't know about you, but in most companies someone gets

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Speaker 1: shown the door. Yes, who's accountable here other than someone

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Speaker 1: saying I'm sorry, I don't think that lets you keep

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Speaker 1: your job in most companies. Here's the one of the

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Speaker 1: many oddities about Facebook, which is one of the reasons

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Speaker 1: I chose to write a book about it because I

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Speaker 1: really felt that it was a unique company from the beginning,

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Speaker 1: is that there really is only one person who's accountable

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Speaker 1: for everything, and that really does change the calculation in

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Speaker 1: a situation like what you're describing. So it really is,

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Speaker 1: in some central sense Zuckerberg's fault that all this happened.

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Speaker 1: He didn't put the priorities where he should, and ultimately

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Speaker 1: he unilaterally and solely that's the priorities at Facebook, which

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Speaker 1: let's acknowledge, for a company that is worth half a

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Speaker 1: trillion dollars, it's a very weird thing. You know, everybody

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Speaker 1: showing I think I saw an MSNBC or CNE and David.

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Speaker 1: Everybody shows this guy in intense conversation with the one

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Speaker 1: guy he can talk to, who's David Kirkpatrick. Chapter six,

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Speaker 1: Chapter six of your book, David Becoming a Company every

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Speaker 1: single business person listening to this program is going, you

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Speaker 1: gotta be kidding me. You got this kid running the show.

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Speaker 1: He's a billionaire. Great congratulations, Miss Samberg is messaging who's

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Speaker 1: the adult that could come in and shift this company

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Speaker 1: to proper business practices? You mean then or now you're

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Speaker 1: talking about now? No, he needs some I will agree

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Speaker 1: with you. He needs somebody. You know. I was actually

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Speaker 1: you know who I suggested the other day, Jerry Brown,

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Speaker 1: because it's not really a business leader that he needs that.

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Speaker 1: Jerry Brown has got a job, we know that. But

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Speaker 1: the point is he needs somebody of that degree of

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Speaker 1: gravitas that he can't ignore. Who you know, he would

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Speaker 1: still be somebody who had no real power because Zuckerbert

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Speaker 1: controls literally everything. But he needs he needs gray hairs

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Speaker 1: in there who really understand the way the world works

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Speaker 1: and share some of his idealism about how the world

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Speaker 1: ought to be. But that who are capable of saying

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Speaker 1: to him, Mark, listen to me, this is wrong. I mean,

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Speaker 1: David just described David Kirkpatrick, Well, okay, if Jerry Brown

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Speaker 1: won't take the job, maybe David Kirkpatrick, Well, well, you

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Speaker 1: know it's funny because I I sometimes this is arrogant preps.

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Speaker 1: But sometimes I think that I am in a role.

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Speaker 1: Since I'm sixty five, I've been around journalist, business journalists

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Speaker 1: thirty four years or whatever. But sometimes I think I'm

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Speaker 1: trying to give them a message. And when I interviewed

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Speaker 1: him on stage at the Techonomy conference in two days

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Speaker 1: after the election, in which is when he said his

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Speaker 1: faithful fake news comment, that got a lot of this inquiry,

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Speaker 1: you know, and in this controversy started. I asked him

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Speaker 1: four times did Facebook have a unique responsibility for given

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Speaker 1: its scale, given its impact an election, given the power

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Speaker 1: of the news feed in media. And I used that

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Speaker 1: word four times. He never used the word in response.

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Speaker 1: When you read his stuff now, he all he says

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Speaker 1: his responsibility. He doesn't want to listen until he's ready.

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Speaker 1: That's the thing about David Kirkpatrick, the author of the

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Speaker 1: Facebook Effect. Right now, Kevin's surreally with us, our chief

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Speaker 1: Washington correspondent, Kevin, have you ever seen the cot, the

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Speaker 1: proverbial cot that speaker Ryan's sleeps on at the house.

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Speaker 1: I have not, the completely honest I have not taught,

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Speaker 1: but I can tell you that yesterday I spoke with

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Speaker 1: a Republican lobbyists who told me, hey, have you heard

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Speaker 1: about the Speaker Ryan's timing? Reverse uh, that we could

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Speaker 1: get this announcement, you know, because he has to declare

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Speaker 1: by next Friday whether or not he's gonna seek reelection.

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Speaker 1: So this has been whispered about all of the Congress

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Speaker 1: for quite some time. But it's the timing of the

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Speaker 1: announcement this day in particular, I find, you know, I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's just such a crazy day already with period the

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Speaker 1: news flows overwhelming, and we have to change it here

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Speaker 1: in the next eight minutes thirty two seconds. But Kevin's

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Speaker 1: really when when we look at this and we compare

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Speaker 1: and contrast to other House speakers, and of course Mr

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Speaker 1: Bainer of Ohio, was he run out of this job?

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Speaker 1: I don't know if he was run out of his

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Speaker 1: job in the way the Speaker run or Speaker Bayner was,

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Speaker 1: but I do think said it's worth noting that back

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Speaker 1: on the campaign trail, when I covered candidate Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: and we went to Speaker Paul ryan district, they were

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Speaker 1: booing Paul Ryan. Donald Trump was on stage and had

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Speaker 1: them booing Paul Ryan at the mention of his name.

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Speaker 1: So the relationship between Speaker Ryan and President Trump has

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Speaker 1: been tent putting it mildly for quite some time. They

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Speaker 1: were never really big fans of each other. And even

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Speaker 1: I can tell you this, like the Aids that I

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Speaker 1: talked with on to President Trump still don't like Speaker

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Speaker 1: Paul Ryan, Kevin Sirelli. I don't know where where where

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Speaker 1: you want to go? Do you want to talk about

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Speaker 1: the Wisconsin first and who takes who takes the seat,

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Speaker 1: or what happens to all those committee ships and the

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Speaker 1: actual running of the legislative branch. Now that the Speaker

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Speaker 1: Ryan has already said that he's not going to be

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Speaker 1: returning to the halls of Congress, well, so this is

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Speaker 1: very It's interesting because we talk about the different political

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Speaker 1: factions within the Republican Party all the time, but a

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Speaker 1: lot of these new factions and political alliances in the

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Speaker 1: halls of Congress have really been dramatically redrawn, and the

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Speaker 1: steers of influence, particularly within the last twenty four months,

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Speaker 1: have really been shifting and and and look no further

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Speaker 1: than then Speaker Ryan's political alliance with Ryank's previous and

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Speaker 1: UH and UH as well as that former apparatus Sean Spyser, Well,

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Speaker 1: talk about having a Wednesday moment. I couldn't remember Shanna

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Speaker 1: Shawn Spyser. Paul Ryank's previous and Paul Ryan were really

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Speaker 1: a trio about town when I was coming up as

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Speaker 1: a Cup reporter. To see them essentially be irrelevant right now,

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Speaker 1: it's not irrelevant, but to see them really equipped is remarkable. Um.

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Speaker 1: And the Freedom Caucus is going to be pouncing on those.

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Speaker 1: I was just gonna say, I'll offer up the tweet

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Speaker 1: that presidents Wednesday for the President. And you know, when

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Speaker 1: you were a Cup reporter, I don't know, maybe they

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Speaker 1: didn't even have Twitter, you didn't have to follow us

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Speaker 1: on a regular basis, but we've always had Twitter, all

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Speaker 1: right in short pants? Um uh, just a minute ago,

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Speaker 1: the President tweeting the speaker. Paul Ryan is a truly

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Speaker 1: good man, and while he will not be seeking re election,

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Speaker 1: he will leave a legacy of achievement that nobody can question.

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Speaker 1: We are with you, Paul, exclamation point. So who takes

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Speaker 1: over from Paul Ryan from the Wisconsin First Well, he

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Speaker 1: would like to see Kevin McCarthy or Steve Scalise replace

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Speaker 1: President Trump has developed personal relationship with Congress Mr. Scalise.

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Speaker 1: So remember, of course the tragic baseball shooting several months ago.

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Speaker 1: Uh and uh, they've had a close relationship on the

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Speaker 1: foot side of that. I spoke with an aid to

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Speaker 1: the Kim Caucus just within the last hour who said

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Speaker 1: that they're carefully watching this any developments out of the

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Speaker 1: Freedom Caucuses, and that I point four hours. But but

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Speaker 1: there's gonna be attention. I would just also note, and

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Speaker 1: you guys know this the Trump's world. They're preparing and

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Speaker 1: folks are preparing for a blue wave in the fall.

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Speaker 1: But there's going to be some new voices from ultra

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Speaker 1: conservative districts throughout the country who are fully aligned with

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Speaker 1: President Trump and everything he stands for their Republicans when

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Speaker 1: they're watching this and they view this as an example

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Speaker 1: of being drained the swamp and right. But Kevin, Kevin,

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Speaker 1: one of your great charms is you're in Capitol Hill

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Speaker 1: a lot. It's damaged you. We understand that, but you

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Speaker 1: get the zeit. Guys to the hill. Is Kevin McCarthy

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Speaker 1: gonna be anointed and assumed to be Speaker of the

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Speaker 1: House or is there just a Republican a GOP tone

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Speaker 1: that he's running to be the Minority head. That's a

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Speaker 1: great point. Well, here's what I can tell you. Mark Short,

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Speaker 1: the President's top Legislative affairs director and lieutenant on titol Hill,

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Speaker 1: so to speak. Uh, was wanting to be seen outside

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Speaker 1: the Marge Zuckerberg hearing yesterday and he walked while he

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Speaker 1: was on the cell phone, past a lot of cameras

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Speaker 1: that was engulfing that part Senate hearing room, and he

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Speaker 1: went into a private meeting with Senator John Cornyn, Republican

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Speaker 1: from Texas. And that I think shows the level of

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Speaker 1: saviness that this White House is trying to exert and

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Speaker 1: the pressure behind the teams of Republican leadership who will

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Speaker 1: be meeting with President Trump at the White House Lader

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Speaker 1: this evening. They're definitely making a play for the but

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Speaker 1: we don't know where they stand. But there's no question

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Speaker 1: President Trump has had frustrated with Speaker Ryan and Republican

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Speaker 1: leadership in the past and started leader Mr McConnell for

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Speaker 1: that matter. Uh. But you know, and I would also

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Speaker 1: know that, Uh Bernardo the Sentiment Arty leader Truck Shumer

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Speaker 1: just David saying, Hey, Speaker Ryan's on cha. Now, let's

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Speaker 1: hope that he breaks ties from the altar conservatives can

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Speaker 1: also puts pressure on President Trump. Outline, Pimfox, that's gonna

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Speaker 1: just offer this. Do you talk about the Twitter and

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Speaker 1: the Senator Ran Paul saying, quote promising war by tweet

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Speaker 1: insults not only the Constitution but every soldier who puts

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Speaker 1: their life on the line. Uh. We seem to have

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Speaker 1: a you know, government by tweet, and uh, Kevin surreally

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Speaker 1: does the President's position on Syria and possible military action

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Speaker 1: make it that much more difficult to have any real,

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Speaker 1: uh sort of political consistency when it comes to any

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Speaker 1: anything happen to do with legislative achievements. No, right before

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Speaker 1: I came on, Eric, before Riley Dabs called our producer here,

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Speaker 1: as I spoke in the hallway with Senator Linday Graham,

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Speaker 1: Republican from Carolina, he called a quote unquote defining moment

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Speaker 1: for this presidency. Uh, and he's hoping that not just

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Speaker 1: at one time military strike, but part of a broader,

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Speaker 1: more articulated plan. Obviously, you can't articulate a military plan

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Speaker 1: a full on Twitter with regards to Steria. But I

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Speaker 1: can tell you that every Democrats spoken with Senators Warner Bloomenthal,

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Speaker 1: Democrats from Virginia and Connecticut respectively, as well as every

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Speaker 1: Republican but the exception of the likes that people like

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Speaker 1: Senator Rand Paul fully support some type of military response

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Speaker 1: in response to the chemical attack. On the side, I

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Speaker 1: just spoke with Representative Diane Black Republicans Senna Stee, who

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Speaker 1: is also saying that this steria issue has to be

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Speaker 1: dealt with military forces. Is something that is military strike

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Speaker 1: roud is something that is fully on the table and

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Speaker 1: many people are anticipating with the Kevin, thank you for

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Speaker 1: the good work this morning. Is our chief Washington correspondent

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Speaker 1: was just sir, really where us on television and radio?

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and

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Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast

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Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Winter at Tom Keane before

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Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.