1 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a Bloomber weekly 2 00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:20,320 Speaker 1: markets podcast. I'm Sarah Pontac, a reporter on the cross 3 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:23,079 Speaker 1: As Set team, and I'm Mike Reagan, a senior editor 4 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:25,560 Speaker 1: on the Markets Team. This week on the show, it's 5 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 1: the calm before the storm, at least if you're referring 6 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 1: to next week's Federal Reserve meeting. But in the lead up, 7 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:36,600 Speaker 1: roughly one and forty companies delivered earning supports. This week, 8 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 1: we'll break it all down, and of course we'll close 9 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 1: out the episode with our tradition, the craziest thing I 10 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:44,240 Speaker 1: saw in markets this week, Sarah, I have a crazy 11 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 1: thing I saw about both of our guests today. You 12 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:49,479 Speaker 1: know what it is. Neither one of these guys is 13 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:53,200 Speaker 1: on Twitter. I think they're the last two financial market 14 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 1: professionals not on Twitter, which I think probably means that 15 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:58,639 Speaker 1: they're among the smartest out there. I admire that. I'm 16 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:01,640 Speaker 1: pretty jealous, exactly. I'd know you could not be on Twitter. 17 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go delete my account, I know. But let's 18 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:08,199 Speaker 1: introduce these guys to all our Twitter fans out there. First. 19 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:13,319 Speaker 1: Sean Snyder, head of investment strategy at City Personal Wealth Management, 20 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 1: thanks for having me. I appreciate it. Also joining us 21 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg's Stocks team leader, and he's the author of 22 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 1: the Taking Stock column. If you don't subscribe to that 23 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:23,760 Speaker 1: on the terminal, I I highly recommended. It's a great 24 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:26,720 Speaker 1: way to start your day reading about a lot of 25 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 1: good color and the equity market. His name is Brad Olson. Brad, 26 00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 1: welcome to the show. Glad to be here. Sean. Let's 27 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 1: start with you. What are you talking about with clients 28 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 1: these days? I mean, obviously the stock markets near record highs, 29 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 1: bond yields are low. Again, where's the opportunity? What are 30 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:44,480 Speaker 1: people interested right now? You know, sort of what is 31 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:46,759 Speaker 1: your your elevator pitch if you run into a client, 32 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 1: uh in the elevator. I think what most clients want 33 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 1: to know is that they hear a lot about potential recession. 34 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 1: They also hear record highs, and it's hard for them 35 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 1: to kind of take those two views and understand what 36 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:01,720 Speaker 1: it means. So we try and kind of walk them 37 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 1: through that. It's also one of those times where I 38 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 1: think it's important to tell people about having a diversified 39 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:09,679 Speaker 1: portfolio as opposed to trying to time the market. Anytime 40 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 1: to our word comes out recession. People try and time 41 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 1: the market, think in and out UM. If you would 42 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 1: have got out in last December, you would have missed 43 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 1: out on the plus games this year, right. So those 44 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 1: are the types of things that we try and talk 45 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:24,000 Speaker 1: clients through currently. As far as opportunities, there's a lot 46 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:26,800 Speaker 1: of different UM things out there right now. Maybe U 47 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 1: S stocks look a little bit expensive, but there are 48 00:02:28,919 --> 00:02:32,560 Speaker 1: certain areas like healthcare, things that have strong earnings growth 49 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 1: UM even in a downturn. So there are areas of 50 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 1: pockets that you can diversify into UM. Maybe it's not 51 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 1: going to be the stock that makes you rich UM, 52 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 1: but it does help balance your portfolio in these uncertain times. 53 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 1: So it seems like we've been hearing the R word 54 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:49,359 Speaker 1: recession much less and less, especially less than we heard 55 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter of last year. Sure, we've got 56 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 1: on some nice economic data. However, this week we did 57 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 1: get some global p m I s and we saw 58 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:00,560 Speaker 1: weakness out of the Eurozone. In the US it hit 59 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 1: fifty on the edge of contraction, lowis since two thousand nine. 60 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 1: How do you look at the good data and the 61 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 1: bad data, especially ahead of the FED meeting next week 62 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:12,360 Speaker 1: and kind of trying to think about what the environment 63 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 1: is going to look like going forward from here. There's 64 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: not always a clear picture, right, And you can take 65 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 1: the p m I s and discuss, you know, what's 66 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:20,919 Speaker 1: a good p m I a bad pm If you 67 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:22,919 Speaker 1: look at the manufacturing p m I, you would say 68 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:25,920 Speaker 1: that it's it's bad, right, manufacturing sector is in a slump. 69 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:27,639 Speaker 1: And then you could take the flip side and you 70 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:29,399 Speaker 1: could say you look at the services sector and it's 71 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:32,239 Speaker 1: holding up just fine. And that gives you this mixed picture. 72 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 1: But you should kind of think about how they both 73 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 1: interplate together. And the manufacturing sector is not encapsulated into 74 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 1: its own If you think of a company like a 75 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:44,920 Speaker 1: auto manufacturer, they make a car, right, but there's more 76 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:46,880 Speaker 1: to that. You think of the Super Bowl ads related 77 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 1: to that car, the fact that that company employs an 78 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:53,640 Speaker 1: accounting service. It can eventually bleed into service sector as well. Um, 79 00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 1: it really hasn't yet. Um. And manufacturing is particularly you know, 80 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 1: worse in Europe right now, UM, more so in the US. 81 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 1: But those things can bleed over into other economic activity, 82 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:06,280 Speaker 1: and that's what you worry about. Yeah, it's a great 83 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:08,960 Speaker 1: point because you often hear wall services or what's seventy 84 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 1: some percent of the economy and their consumer you know, 85 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 1: especially so you're you're thinking, is that that manufacturing weakness 86 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:18,920 Speaker 1: can actually lead to service sector weakness and and sort 87 00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:22,280 Speaker 1: of be almost a leading indicator, canary in the coal 88 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:25,039 Speaker 1: mine for the entire economy. Right, I'm not worried yet, 89 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 1: but I think you have to watch that, and I 90 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 1: think that that gives the FED some sort of case 91 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:31,719 Speaker 1: to make when it comes to do an insurance cut. 92 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 1: So let's bring it to what companies are actually saying 93 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:36,640 Speaker 1: at the moment. Brad. I know you've had a an 94 00:04:36,640 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 1: extremely busy week, the busiest of this earning season. I'm 95 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:43,359 Speaker 1: sure you've hardly slept. But if you take a step 96 00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 1: back and you look at the executive commentary that we 97 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 1: have seen so far through this earning season, is anyone 98 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 1: actually worried about an economic downturn? We're not seeing it yet, 99 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:56,839 Speaker 1: at least as far as the numbers are concerned. Um, 100 00:04:56,880 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 1: just through this week, we're sales are are still surprised 101 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:04,039 Speaker 1: into the upside. Earnings are surprising even further. Um, we 102 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:06,279 Speaker 1: heard a lot of crowing leading into this earning season, 103 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 1: amount of potential earnings recession that is yet to materialize. UM, 104 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 1: So as far as the executive commentary, we're seeing a 105 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 1: lot of idiosyncratic circumstances and all the way from you know, 106 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:20,920 Speaker 1: the maker of these snowmobiles, Polarists, I don't know if 107 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 1: you know. Earlier this week they reported and their stock 108 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 1: actually rose after sighting the tariffs and the trade concerns, 109 00:05:28,279 --> 00:05:31,160 Speaker 1: just showing that if companies were you know, strong enough 110 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:34,720 Speaker 1: and it definitely navigated the circumstances, they could still be successful. 111 00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:36,720 Speaker 1: On the other side, on the flip side, we're still 112 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 1: seeing some industrial weakness. We saw CSX last last week, 113 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 1: which is still weighing on some concerns or some the 114 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: cast freight index is lower, So to that extent, there's 115 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:51,359 Speaker 1: no major thematic uh circumstances that are bleeding through. But 116 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 1: so far, so good, I would say. I think the 117 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:57,080 Speaker 1: the interesting thing that jumped out to me just this 118 00:05:57,080 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 1: this past week has been how semiconductors have have manned 119 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 1: is to to navigate the Huahwei blacklisting um utilizing this loophole. 120 00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:08,039 Speaker 1: Bloomberg wrote about it extensively in the last few weeks 121 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:12,279 Speaker 1: by using some of their overseas subsidiaries to basically allow 122 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:14,920 Speaker 1: them still sell through them to Hahwei despite those those 123 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:17,839 Speaker 1: trade war concerns. So we'll see we're seeing that with 124 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:21,240 Speaker 1: the socks index at the session highs um. That was 125 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:23,920 Speaker 1: a huge lift to the the SMP this week, and 126 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:26,359 Speaker 1: you know, with the smp A pushing through three thousand, 127 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:29,679 Speaker 1: it's hard to make that case, you know, Sean, getting 128 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:31,800 Speaker 1: back to what what Brad's talking about, I get the 129 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 1: sense that investors aren't really ready right now to abandon 130 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:38,120 Speaker 1: the stock market, but it seems like there's a lot 131 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 1: of confusion, a lot of uncertainty about where that leadership 132 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:43,400 Speaker 1: should be. You know, we saw this real strong rally 133 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 1: in defensive stocks that is really made places like utilities 134 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 1: look sort of like a crowded trade. I mean, a 135 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:53,600 Speaker 1: utility index in the SMP trading at twenty times earnings 136 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 1: I think for the first time ever. Basically I saw 137 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 1: a lot of action real estate companies. But then you'll 138 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:01,040 Speaker 1: have these days where it's seems like everyone jumps to 139 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:03,360 Speaker 1: the other side of the ship and says, oh, now 140 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:06,159 Speaker 1: the you know, everyone's too worried. Let's get back into 141 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:08,760 Speaker 1: the cyclical the growth stocks that you saw, the bank's 142 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 1: rebound um is that a fair assessment of sort of 143 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 1: the mentality right now that people aren't ready to throw 144 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:15,720 Speaker 1: in the town in the stocks, but there's not really 145 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 1: much clarity on what is going to be that leadership. 146 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 1: I think that's true. I think anytime you get the 147 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 1: record highs, people are gonna be a little bit confused 148 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 1: about what to move into because they all get to 149 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 1: be more expensive when you get to record highs, and 150 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 1: I think people are confused about whether we are headed 151 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:32,320 Speaker 1: towards the recession or not. There are indicators that point 152 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 1: towards the recession, right The inverted deal curve is the 153 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 1: most obvious. Everyone talks about it um that points to 154 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 1: potential recession in mid twenty twenty, maybe early one. They're 155 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 1: also some other indicators to the number of businesses saying 156 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 1: that now is a good time to expand may have 157 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 1: peeked back in may have two thousand eighteen. The initial 158 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 1: jobless claims, which is very very timely read on the 159 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 1: US labor market, might have peeked in the week of 160 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 1: April nineteen. So there are some signs that maybe you 161 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 1: could of a recession, and that's why I think the 162 00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:05,240 Speaker 1: FED see some of those they don't mention it specifically, 163 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:06,880 Speaker 1: but I think they see some of this stuff and 164 00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 1: they worry a little bit about it. And that's why 165 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 1: I think you see this move back and forth between 166 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 1: defenses and cyclicals. If you think the economy's botting the 167 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 1: bottoming out and you're gonna get a soft landing scenario 168 00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 1: where trade wars have subsided, the FED is now easy. 169 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 1: That argues for cyclicals. If that doesn't happen, trade concerns 170 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 1: come back to the roost. The FED doesn't cut rates 171 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 1: the way we want, It's maybe not fifty basis points 172 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:33,520 Speaker 1: or whatever, then you want defenses. That labor market I 173 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 1: think is so key. I mean, it doesn't really start 174 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:39,120 Speaker 1: to feel like a weak economy until you start seeing 175 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 1: uh nonfarm payrolls moved down closer to zero. You start 176 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:45,880 Speaker 1: to see that unemployment rate pick up um and yet 177 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:48,320 Speaker 1: it's very much a not really a leading indicator. It's 178 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:51,319 Speaker 1: more of a lagging or coincident indicators. So what is 179 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:53,319 Speaker 1: the is job has claimed? You sort of go to 180 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 1: way uh to to sort of figure out the outlook 181 00:08:57,000 --> 00:08:59,079 Speaker 1: for for the labor market. And if so, do you 182 00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:01,640 Speaker 1: look at a moving average of of four weeks or 183 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 1: six weeks or something like that. We're do you look 184 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 1: at some of the survey labor surveys, which what's sort 185 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 1: of the best way for investors to wrap their head 186 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:12,560 Speaker 1: around what's expect for the labor market. By far, the 187 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:15,440 Speaker 1: easiest way is the Initial Jobless Claimed Teller comes out 188 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:19,360 Speaker 1: every Thursday at eight thirty am. Now, one week's movement 189 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 1: is not going to tell you anything, but if you 190 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:24,200 Speaker 1: continually pay attention to and it tends to trend higher 191 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 1: over time, and it's been doing that a little bit since, 192 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:31,240 Speaker 1: like I mentioned April ten, again, super low levels, relatively stable, 193 00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:34,079 Speaker 1: no signs right now that there is a recession. It's 194 00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 1: one of the things that makes me confident that there's 195 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:39,240 Speaker 1: not a recession right now. But again it leads by 196 00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 1: maybe say twelve months. So if it continues to trend 197 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:44,680 Speaker 1: higher and higher and higher and higher, and then you 198 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: get to mid two thousand twenty and all of a sudden, 199 00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 1: initial jobs seems right three thousand and you say, oh, 200 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 1: maybe we're starting recession. So that's one thing you pay 201 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:55,760 Speaker 1: attention to. The labor surveys are also great as well. Um, 202 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 1: if you look at the small business surveys n F 203 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:01,079 Speaker 1: by n F, I b they're a rate leading indicator. 204 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 1: It's cooled off a little bit too, haven't they have? 205 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:06,079 Speaker 1: Small business confidence has come down now again it's still 206 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:09,079 Speaker 1: at elevated levels, but you know that's what happens when 207 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 1: you have a peak, right and before the recession, it 208 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:14,319 Speaker 1: starts to decline. So it maybe the beginning of that decline. 209 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:16,200 Speaker 1: It doesn't mean that we're there, doesn't mean we are 210 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:18,959 Speaker 1: at our recessions. Just like those initial jobless names. Maybe 211 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 1: botting Mountain April doesn't mean we're at a recession, but 212 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:24,440 Speaker 1: those maybe signs that you're headed towards the recession. And 213 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:27,680 Speaker 1: I will add that initial jobless GLAMs did fall this 214 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 1: Thursday shirts just one week, but that does underpin that 215 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 1: the case that we have a pretty strong labor market. 216 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:36,080 Speaker 1: I want to come back to the earning season as 217 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:38,560 Speaker 1: a whole sean because if you look at a benchmark level, 218 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 1: shure companies are beating. The majority are, but they pretty 219 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 1: much always do because they come in with low expectations. 220 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:47,000 Speaker 1: But if you look further out, if you look at 221 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:49,640 Speaker 1: the third quarter, in the fourth quarter, we're now starting 222 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 1: to see those estimates come down. Also full your nineteen 223 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 1: estimates and also next year's estimates as well. Can the 224 00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:59,559 Speaker 1: market continue to trend higher if we continue to see 225 00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:03,199 Speaker 1: the at least at this point slight deterioration in earnings 226 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:05,080 Speaker 1: estimates for the rest of the year and for the 227 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:07,720 Speaker 1: two years ahead. It's a bit of a tricky question. 228 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 1: I guess it's my job to answer that. Sorry. I 229 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 1: think the answer is they can go higher just based 230 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:17,320 Speaker 1: on the idea of all this stimulus coming into the market. 231 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 1: It's not just the Fed cutting rates, but you're getting 232 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:22,920 Speaker 1: some monetary stimulus through that avenue through a rate cut 233 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:26,320 Speaker 1: which is almost guaranteed to happen next Wednesday. But you're 234 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 1: also seeing increased fiscal spending by the government, right so 235 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 1: that the new budget deal, if it passes, I think 236 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 1: contributes maybe. And you'd have to fact check me on this, 237 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:36,520 Speaker 1: don't please, don't quote it's an exact thing, but I 238 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:40,560 Speaker 1: think it's about forty four billion dollars of increased federal 239 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:44,280 Speaker 1: spending next year. Those types of things canned into the 240 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 1: market and increase asset prices. And the one thing you 241 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:48,960 Speaker 1: might see from the Fed cutting rates is not necessarily 242 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:50,760 Speaker 1: boost the economy, but you might see a boost of 243 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:54,199 Speaker 1: risk assets, which is essentially what we've seen since two 244 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:56,959 Speaker 1: thousand nine, right, the stock market has done better than 245 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 1: the economy in general. I mean, now we're getting to 246 00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 1: the point where maybe the economy astro stock market. But 247 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 1: and from what I've read cities sort of house view 248 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 1: is that you're expecting a quitter point cut next week 249 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 1: at the end of July when the Fed meets. Everyone 250 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 1: is using the catchphrase insurance cut, you know, meaning, uh, 251 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:18,600 Speaker 1: this might be one and done, maybe two cuts. What 252 00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 1: you're thinking on that, I mean is the market's going 253 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 1: to sort of have a temper tensionum almost for you know, 254 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:29,080 Speaker 1: more than that for a continued using cycle. Where will 255 00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:31,920 Speaker 1: one cut satisfy people, do you think or two cuts? Say, 256 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 1: I think two cuts would probably satisfy the market. I 257 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:36,560 Speaker 1: think they might even be looking deeper than that. But 258 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 1: I think our expectations July and September, you know, I 259 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:41,720 Speaker 1: think you call it an insurance cut. In the idea 260 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:44,040 Speaker 1: of insurance is a great thing. We all have it. 261 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 1: But sometimes you get in an accident and the fact 262 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:48,599 Speaker 1: that you have insurance doesn't uh, you know, negate the 263 00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:50,680 Speaker 1: fact that you've got a horrible accident that changed your life. 264 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 1: I think the FED is somewhat the same way. I 265 00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:55,679 Speaker 1: think there has been historical examples where they did an 266 00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:58,280 Speaker 1: insurance cup and we had a soft landing and we 267 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,400 Speaker 1: moved on and we avoided resas and things were fine 268 00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:04,320 Speaker 1: right exactly. But in two thousand one, two seven, we 269 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:06,319 Speaker 1: didn't avoid the accident and we when it fell into 270 00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:09,680 Speaker 1: recession anyways. Um, And that's the type of scenario we 271 00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:12,439 Speaker 1: are clearly hoping to avoid. And I think that's also 272 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:15,439 Speaker 1: adding to the confusion that you're talking about people moving 273 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,320 Speaker 1: in between defenses and cyclicals and that kind of stuff. 274 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 1: What really matters is what happens from here on out 275 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:25,320 Speaker 1: after the FED cuts. Do the data continue to deteriorate 276 00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 1: or do they stabilize and start to pick up a 277 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:29,960 Speaker 1: little bit. Brad, I want to come back to you 278 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 1: because not only does your team look at every single 279 00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:35,559 Speaker 1: company that reports earnings, you guys also read every single 280 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 1: Street note that comes out essentially, and I want to 281 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:41,760 Speaker 1: get your sense when you look into aggregate at the 282 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:44,360 Speaker 1: Wall Street chatter, just notes that are coming out, do 283 00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 1: they get the sense that the markets are getting fatigued 284 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:51,200 Speaker 1: at these levels? And is an insurance cut if we 285 00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 1: want to call it that? At this point in time 286 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:56,559 Speaker 1: enough to help ease any fatigue that may be settling 287 00:13:56,559 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 1: in Well, I think it's absolutely paramount that I kind 288 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:02,520 Speaker 1: of or just from what I'm just from when I'm reading, 289 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 1: I think there's an interesting some interesting research about how 290 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:07,880 Speaker 1: credit credit sweez actually is taking this to the the 291 00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 1: Devil's Advocate view where they they've actually said every time 292 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 1: the rates actually fall the tenure. For example, I think 293 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 1: in the song as yields full shares actually aren't responding 294 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 1: and kind they actually there is no one to one 295 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 1: corollary there, which I thought was an interesting view. I mean, 296 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 1: the market needs the cut and it has to have 297 00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:29,760 Speaker 1: the cut to continue to move any higher um, as 298 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:32,800 Speaker 1: Sean indicated. But at the same time, there is some 299 00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:35,200 Speaker 1: research to show, at least on the short term basis, 300 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:38,000 Speaker 1: it's not always as cut and dry as it seems. 301 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:40,680 Speaker 1: And you know, with S and PD around three thousand, 302 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 1: that's either at or above a lot of the streets forecasts. 303 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 1: I mean, are we any idea and Sean maybe you 304 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 1: have ideas on this or we're gonna start seeing that, 305 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 1: uh those forecasts go up, get get them in before 306 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 1: the end of the year, I guess, or you know, 307 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 1: I know, Sean, you don't have to, you're not responsible 308 00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: for an official forecast, but would you you know, if 309 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:01,760 Speaker 1: you where would you be itching to move it up 310 00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 1: right now or would you be holding firm. What's interesting 311 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:07,920 Speaker 1: is our SMP five hundred target for a year end 312 00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 1: this year, and I don't set that. It's set by 313 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 1: your chief US equity strategist, Bias Lefkovichift so we're so 314 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 1: we're below that, So you could argue that it should 315 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 1: be raised. But at the same time you mentioned this 316 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:22,560 Speaker 1: potential earnings we set where earnings for two twenty or 317 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 1: potentially too high. UM consensus is looking for ten percent 318 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 1: earnings growth next year. We're looking for five percent. So 319 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:31,480 Speaker 1: we think eventually the market kind of realizes that and 320 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:33,080 Speaker 1: it kind of comes back down to we are that 321 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:36,000 Speaker 1: that's our view for now. That said, we did start 322 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 1: the year with a target of thirty and lowered it 323 00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 1: after November December time frame win markets, So to get 324 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:48,760 Speaker 1: the thirty one clearly not out of the realm possibility. 325 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 1: Given we thought that back in January yoked kind of 326 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 1: kind of bullish. It looked very it looked very aggressive 327 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 1: when they put it out, and we've made it there 328 00:15:57,880 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 1: a little bit over halfway through the year, and I 329 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:01,920 Speaker 1: think only in a couple more strategists. I think maybe 330 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 1: maybe three strategists or so that still have to have 331 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:08,040 Speaker 1: targets above where we are, but it's not that we're 332 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:10,480 Speaker 1: very close at the top. I don't think people expected 333 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:13,080 Speaker 1: the FED to pivot like this. That is, that is 334 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 1: why their targets are due well right. No one seemed 335 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 1: like they were ready for the FED to pivot as 336 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 1: they did. Something that people were coming into maybe a 337 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,400 Speaker 1: little bit more prepared for this week was we also 338 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 1: heard from the European Central Bank, we heard from Mario Draggy, 339 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 1: and a lot of people actually thought that they could 340 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 1: potentially cut rates this week. That didn't happen. They very 341 00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 1: much set up the case for September. Also the restart 342 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:57,400 Speaker 1: of QUI, also their tearing system, but it seems like 343 00:16:57,440 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 1: it's still didn't live up to the expectations. Why not 344 00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:02,960 Speaker 1: Seohn I think that in outline the details the way 345 00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:05,439 Speaker 1: some were hoping for. And then I think primarily the 346 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 1: fact that he said um dragging in particular said that 347 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 1: the odds of a recession in that region are still low, 348 00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:13,720 Speaker 1: and I think that set the expectation that may be 349 00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:17,720 Speaker 1: expectations for UM what my comment September is too high, 350 00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:20,440 Speaker 1: and I think that is also kind of playing through 351 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:23,840 Speaker 1: to people's expectations for the Federal Reserve, thinking that maybe 352 00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:25,680 Speaker 1: we were going to get a fifty basis point cut 353 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 1: next week. But if Mario Drogg is not that concerned 354 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:31,400 Speaker 1: about Europe, which is looking worse than here, then maybe 355 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 1: the Fed's not as concerned as they were hoping for. 356 00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:38,040 Speaker 1: It sounds bad, right, you should be hoping pretty bad situation, 357 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:44,159 Speaker 1: but market different. Before we get to the craziest thing 358 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 1: that we all saw in markets this week, Brad, I 359 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 1: want to put the spotlight on you. If you look 360 00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:51,120 Speaker 1: back at earning season so far, what would you say 361 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:54,359 Speaker 1: have been the big standouts, whether that means a good 362 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 1: standout or pretty bad standout. Boeing jumps out to me, 363 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:02,120 Speaker 1: it's still a story. We thought it was gonna pass 364 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 1: for a while, UM, and then there was that surprise 365 00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:07,320 Speaker 1: charge that we saw that they came out with right 366 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 1: ahead of their earnings, which led analysts to scramble to 367 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:13,479 Speaker 1: adjust their their estimates. When their earnings came out. There 368 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 1: was a little bit of indecision, you know from the 369 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 1: from investors alike. You know, where we expecting this, where 370 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:22,520 Speaker 1: we're not expecting this. The estimates hadn't caught up yet. Um. 371 00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:25,000 Speaker 1: I think even with some of the airline's results and 372 00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:28,919 Speaker 1: some of the I guess provisions that American Airlines has 373 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:32,359 Speaker 1: made and and Southwest, which is the largest user I 374 00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 1: believe of the seven thirty seven max. Um. You know, 375 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:38,640 Speaker 1: there we're seeing some some various impacts there. I think 376 00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 1: American Airlines is on the on the on the down 377 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:44,880 Speaker 1: side of that, I think the Southwest is actually recovered. Um. 378 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:47,199 Speaker 1: They're making the special provisions to account for some of 379 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:49,520 Speaker 1: the seven thirty seven max grounding. That's the that's still 380 00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:52,639 Speaker 1: a big story, huge impact there. That's you know, we 381 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:55,600 Speaker 1: thought that was gonna kind of subside. UM. I think 382 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:58,639 Speaker 1: another interesting story was was was three M you know 383 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 1: that one of the largest losses and investor capital in 384 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:05,440 Speaker 1: that name in thirty some odd years last quarter and 385 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:10,240 Speaker 1: you know, results on on Thursday actually sways some of 386 00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:14,440 Speaker 1: those concerns. But nevertheless, you know, share still came under pressure. 387 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:17,000 Speaker 1: So there's a lot still you know, three M makes 388 00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:19,440 Speaker 1: everything in the economy, right, So if we're talking about 389 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:22,720 Speaker 1: the recessionary outlook. They have their their finger on the 390 00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 1: on the pulse of just about everything from post It's 391 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:29,439 Speaker 1: to the automotive market um to healthcare diverse? Does that 392 00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:32,680 Speaker 1: mean we can get to the craziest thing I saw? Market? 393 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:35,840 Speaker 1: I think you missed it. What was the craziest thing 394 00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:40,000 Speaker 1: last week? Did your anoint a winner? Did an annoint winter? 395 00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:43,160 Speaker 1: That leaves the road wide open for you guys? Sehan? 396 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:44,800 Speaker 1: Did they tell you about our gimmick here that I 397 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:50,119 Speaker 1: didn't know you could win? Sometimes we have Sometimes everyone's 398 00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:53,879 Speaker 1: a winner, everyone gets a participation trophy. That's right, Sarah 399 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 1: is a millennial after all. Yeah, it's true. All right, 400 00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:58,240 Speaker 1: let's start with you, Sarah, What do you got so? 401 00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:03,120 Speaker 1: Full disclaimer not for the vegetarians for vegans out there, possibly, 402 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 1: but I thought this was pretty crazy. Supposedly because it 403 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 1: has been so hot over the past couple of weeks, 404 00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 1: or really just unseasonably hot, pigs across the country have 405 00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:20,679 Speaker 1: been getting skinnier and skinnier, which means that if you 406 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:25,919 Speaker 1: look at hog prices, they've actually been rising. Um. Really 407 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:30,280 Speaker 1: weird to see a headline like that across the Bloomberg terminal, 408 00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:33,399 Speaker 1: across the website, on the Bloomberg, but still something I 409 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:35,200 Speaker 1: hadn't thought of, and I thought that was a pretty 410 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:38,160 Speaker 1: crazy that's the most alarming thing. Yeah, it's really alarming. 411 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:42,119 Speaker 1: Extra time in the mud. Yeah, I guess so, I 412 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 1: guess so alright, Brad, that's that's tough to the top. 413 00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 1: What do you got? Yeah, that is that is challenging. 414 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:51,480 Speaker 1: I don't usually follow the hog market, so that's a 415 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 1: little outside my my lane. Um, I guess to me, 416 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 1: the big story was Aligned Technology today. You know, given 417 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:01,960 Speaker 1: my given my position here in the markets team, we're 418 00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:03,560 Speaker 1: looking for big moves in the in the in the 419 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:06,840 Speaker 1: market where shares are moving, and a Line Technology lost 420 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:11,359 Speaker 1: about a third of its of its market cap. It's 421 00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:13,000 Speaker 1: a big move and it's a big company. I mean, 422 00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,399 Speaker 1: I think they were worth about twenty billion dollars setting 423 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:18,119 Speaker 1: in the results. They're the maker of these, uh you know, 424 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:21,679 Speaker 1: the invisible braces that that you see so heavily advertised. 425 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 1: I think you could say the rutting was on the wall. 426 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,359 Speaker 1: You know, you're seeing some of these retail locations open 427 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,800 Speaker 1: up the Smile Direct club, heavy competition in that space. 428 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 1: Not not I'm not going to say it is necessarily 429 00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:34,600 Speaker 1: a client, but it was definitely surprising. I know it's 430 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:39,719 Speaker 1: worked for many many other people. UM, right, So you know, 431 00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:42,840 Speaker 1: I think there are a lot of underlying issues their competition. 432 00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:44,800 Speaker 1: I think they're embroiled in a lawsuit as well. But 433 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,320 Speaker 1: I thought that was the leader in the space taking 434 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:50,359 Speaker 1: a huge hit out of nowhere. So I thought that 435 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,560 Speaker 1: was pretty interesting. And that's kind of been a sort 436 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:54,439 Speaker 1: of a sub theme of the starning season, hasn't it 437 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:57,960 Speaker 1: been that really big moves one one direction or the other, 438 00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:00,240 Speaker 1: especially big, And I guess that's what we you know, 439 00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 1: that's what happens when we're at the highs, right, You're 440 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,360 Speaker 1: always going to get some of these huge down drafts 441 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:06,640 Speaker 1: that kind of take a lot of people by by surprise. 442 00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,679 Speaker 1: So you can argue that's not a surprise, but this 443 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 1: was still a surprise to me anyway. That's pretty good. Alright, Sehn, 444 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:16,600 Speaker 1: We've got invisible braces and skinny hogs. I may have 445 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:20,760 Speaker 1: two craziest things. I'll start with one that ties in 446 00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 1: with there is a certain vegetarian meatless burger maker talking about. 447 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 1: I can't mention specific stock names, but may be able 448 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:32,840 Speaker 1: to I cannot mention the names. I'm making that up 449 00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 1: that crossed two d a share this week, which is 450 00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 1: seven plus return from its I po in May, which 451 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:43,960 Speaker 1: to me is absolutely crazy. And I do not believe 452 00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:47,399 Speaker 1: that there's a plant based substitute for bacon. It is 453 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:49,480 Speaker 1: extremely crazy to me. The other thing I think is 454 00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:52,359 Speaker 1: crazy is something I believe I saw on Bloomberg Television 455 00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:55,159 Speaker 1: this week. May have happened little last week, but it 456 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 1: is going around on Wall Street this week. Was a 457 00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:00,960 Speaker 1: Wall Street kind of analyst or veteran saying that the 458 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 1: tenure treasury you could go to zero in the next 459 00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:07,000 Speaker 1: couple of And I've gotten a lot of questions about that, 460 00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:08,760 Speaker 1: and I think that is a very interesting thing to 461 00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:10,720 Speaker 1: think about, because if you'd have told me back in 462 00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:14,600 Speaker 1: two thirteen that German boon could go to negative zero 463 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:17,480 Speaker 1: point three seven percent or whatever today, I would have said, 464 00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:20,800 Speaker 1: now when when skinny pigs fly right exactly, but now 465 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,680 Speaker 1: here were talking about it happening in the United States. 466 00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:27,360 Speaker 1: I too have two crazy things, uh. The first one 467 00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:33,280 Speaker 1: that was one of the rules, that's right. That one, 468 00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:35,680 Speaker 1: I'll make it up for last week. One being that 469 00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:40,560 Speaker 1: we now have Greece Greek tenure yields, uh, if not lower, 470 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,480 Speaker 1: pretty close to treasury yields. I'm not gonna make that 471 00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,399 Speaker 1: my official crazy thing because then every currency guy on 472 00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 1: Twitter will point out that you gotta just for the currency. 473 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:50,520 Speaker 1: That's why you gotta get rid of Twitter, right exactly. 474 00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:52,960 Speaker 1: That's why I'm the leading it tonight. But my official 475 00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:56,640 Speaker 1: craziest thing this week is I'm sure we're all familiar there. 476 00:23:56,680 --> 00:24:01,280 Speaker 1: There's very handful of sort of legendary investors out there. 477 00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:03,680 Speaker 1: I think we'd all agree Bill Miller is one of them. 478 00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:07,760 Speaker 1: Uh beat the SMP five D for like fifteen years straight, 479 00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:11,400 Speaker 1: running a very plain vanilla mutual fund Big one. Though 480 00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,280 Speaker 1: the leg Mason Value Fund considered one of the most 481 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:18,560 Speaker 1: famous value investors in the world. This hedge fund he's 482 00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:23,240 Speaker 1: running now is a different animal. Um It rose forty 483 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,960 Speaker 1: six percent in the first half of the year, and 484 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:29,960 Speaker 1: they're attributing it to from one thing Bitcoin and the 485 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:32,880 Speaker 1: other thing Amazon. So here the world's you know, one 486 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:36,080 Speaker 1: of the world's most famous value investors is loading up 487 00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,119 Speaker 1: on Amazon, which I've I've found it be colle crazy 488 00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:40,560 Speaker 1: and Bitcoin. And he also this is a fund that 489 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:44,600 Speaker 1: can be as much as triple levered, so he can't 490 00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:48,280 Speaker 1: say that Bill Miller is going quietly into the sunset 491 00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,040 Speaker 1: as he as he ages he's he's going big levering 492 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:57,080 Speaker 1: up triple levered, uh potentially triple levered Bitcoin and uh 493 00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 1: high flighting tech stock funds. So I think, you know, 494 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,679 Speaker 1: maybe this is a good example of how, um, the 495 00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:10,119 Speaker 1: notion of what value investing is really changing dramatically. Is 496 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,719 Speaker 1: Amazon and value stock? I know you can't single thing 497 00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:18,280 Speaker 1: that's fair, um, but before we go, I have to 498 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:23,160 Speaker 1: read our favorite Twitter as well. This one is pretty good. Yeah. 499 00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:25,560 Speaker 1: So we had Jeff Hancock right in he is at 500 00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:29,600 Speaker 1: experts with two U s is ninety seven, underscored Jeff, 501 00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,160 Speaker 1: and then he said Ford came out with an all 502 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:35,680 Speaker 1: electric F one fifty and the stock declined. Brad have 503 00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:37,159 Speaker 1: to come to you. Was it just the fact that 504 00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:41,080 Speaker 1: earnings were not very great and maybe overshadowed this? Yeah? 505 00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:43,639 Speaker 1: I think the yes, the F one fifty is the 506 00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:45,919 Speaker 1: main driver of that stock. If you think, if you 507 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:49,359 Speaker 1: looked at deliveries over the past you know, decade or so, 508 00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:51,440 Speaker 1: the F one fifty is always where you know your 509 00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:54,199 Speaker 1: eyes first glanced, you know, are they are they on 510 00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:57,000 Speaker 1: deliveries up. I wouldn't say that's the reason why the 511 00:25:57,040 --> 00:25:59,680 Speaker 1: stock is down, so I'm gonna I'm gonna go I'm 512 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:01,879 Speaker 1: gonna go on the limb there, um and and and 513 00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:04,480 Speaker 1: say that I think that mistake, and they actually beat 514 00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:06,840 Speaker 1: on sales. I think it was just their their earnings 515 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:10,200 Speaker 1: and other things. I think full year out the disappointing 516 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:14,000 Speaker 1: interesting one. Um, it was a Nissan profit was down 517 00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:17,159 Speaker 1: nine year every year, which I thought was as far 518 00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:22,600 Speaker 1: as the automakers went a bunch of Although I will say, uh, Sarah, 519 00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:25,720 Speaker 1: if I were to make a Venn diagram of electric 520 00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:30,479 Speaker 1: car drivers Tesla types and Ford F one fifty drivers, 521 00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:32,520 Speaker 1: I don't think I'd see a lot of overlap in 522 00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:35,080 Speaker 1: those two circles. They'd they'd be several inches apart. Maybe 523 00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,439 Speaker 1: not necessarily. Maybe our Twitter guys on this stuff the 524 00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:41,320 Speaker 1: next Yeah, maybe so. But with that said, Brad Sean, 525 00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 1: thank you both so much for joining the show today. 526 00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:52,840 Speaker 1: Thank you, thank you for having me what goes out. 527 00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:55,560 Speaker 1: We'll be back next week. Until then, you can find 528 00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:58,640 Speaker 1: us on the Bloomberg Terminal website and app or wherever 529 00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,240 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. We'd love it if you took 530 00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:03,280 Speaker 1: the time to rate and review the show on Apple 531 00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:06,359 Speaker 1: podcast so more listeners can find us and you can 532 00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:09,440 Speaker 1: find us on Twitter, follow me at at Sara Panzac 533 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:13,040 Speaker 1: and Mike is at Reaganonymous. You can also follow bloomber 534 00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:17,280 Speaker 1: podcasts at podcasts. What Goes Up is produced by topor 535 00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:20,760 Speaker 1: Foreheads ahead of Bloomberg. Podcast is Princess the Leavie. Thanks 536 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:22,160 Speaker 1: for listening to you. Next time