WEBVTT - First Five Fever | Mon MLB Best Bets 0:00:02.360 --> 0:00:07.680 Fall, no crying, and this game is underway. 0:00:10.200 --> 0:00:13.160 In the line up, it is Springs offering Josh the 0:00:13.200 --> 0:00:13.920 bit outside. 0:00:14.040 --> 0:00:16.600 Here's a drive in a deep bliftfield by Casianos who 0:00:16.600 --> 0:00:20.000 will be a home run. 0:00:24.560 --> 0:00:28.080 And look to time you're talking about a roll at 0:00:28.120 --> 0:00:28.600 the dice. 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:29.720 This is it. 0:00:31.400 --> 0:00:32.560 Here's the Payoff Pitch. 0:00:35.040 --> 0:00:41.000 Welcome to Payoff Pitch, Action Networks Major League Baseball Betting Podcast. 0:00:41.120 --> 0:00:45.080 It is Monday, August tenth. I'm Colin Richard, joined as 0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:50.280 usual by Action Network senior MLB analyst Sean Zarrillo to 0:00:50.400 --> 0:00:54.200 break down this Monday MLB slate, not a full slate 0:00:54.440 --> 0:00:58.640 as it usually is on Monday. We've got what three, six, nine, 0:00:58.720 --> 0:01:03.120 ten games all under the light tonight, some decent pitching matchup, 0:01:03.200 --> 0:01:07.320 some decent favorites and underdogs. Uh, it's going to be 0:01:07.319 --> 0:01:10.360 a short one today, a small card for you today, Sean. 0:01:10.600 --> 0:01:12.319 We're not going to go with the eighty sixty forty. 0:01:12.360 --> 0:01:14.319 We're just going to give out your four or five 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:19.200 favorite bets on the show and uh call it a day. 0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:21.840 So let's jump right into it with our best bets. 0:01:21.920 --> 0:01:25.760 In your first one, we're going to go to Brewers 0:01:26.280 --> 0:01:29.440 Padres in San Diego Tonight, Casey Mai is making his 0:01:29.560 --> 0:01:32.480 second start for the Padres since coming over. In the 0:01:32.520 --> 0:01:38.560 trade deadline, Logan Henderson making a case for Milwaukee's playoff rotation. 0:01:39.640 --> 0:01:40.880 Where are you going with this one today? 0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:44.000 Yeah, Brewers first five money line. I like it up 0:01:44.040 --> 0:01:45.800 to you about minus one thirty five. I make it 0:01:45.800 --> 0:01:51.080 closer to minus one forty five. Project Henderson substantially better 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:53.440 than Casey mis I have myes pushing closer to a 0:01:53.480 --> 0:01:57.800 leg gabage starter now Henderson ranking closer to the number ones. There's, 0:01:58.360 --> 0:02:00.000 i'd say, of all the pitchers right now, the big 0:02:00.160 --> 0:02:03.600 different or the biggest disagreement between like their projections right 0:02:03.640 --> 0:02:07.880 the public projections Oopsie vat ATC Steamer. The biggest disagreement 0:02:07.920 --> 0:02:12.960 between a starting pitcher's public projections and their underlying indicators 0:02:13.040 --> 0:02:16.560 might be Logan Henderson. If it's not Henderson, it's probably Miserowski. 0:02:16.639 --> 0:02:22.720 Because Miserowski's expected FIP and SIERRA have gone under two. 0:02:22.880 --> 0:02:26.120 Henderson's are sitting in the low twos. He's at or 0:02:26.240 --> 0:02:28.600 mid twos. He's at two point six for his expected 0:02:28.639 --> 0:02:32.120 era on the year, expected FIP around two seven, but 0:02:32.240 --> 0:02:34.320 all of his projections are still a run higher. His 0:02:34.400 --> 0:02:37.239 average projection is four point one. I think he's much 0:02:37.280 --> 0:02:39.639 better than that. I think he's proven that he's much 0:02:39.639 --> 0:02:41.799 better than that. And if you look at his trend 0:02:41.840 --> 0:02:44.440 line as compart to Casey Mis's trend line, they're moving 0:02:44.520 --> 0:02:48.600 in opposite directions. Henderson came back from injury strike at 0:02:48.639 --> 0:02:52.560 minus walk over thirty percent walk or his rate of 0:02:52.600 --> 0:02:54.720 balls going down, his rate of cald strikes and whiffs 0:02:54.760 --> 0:02:57.000 going up. It's the exact opposite for Casey myis and 0:02:57.040 --> 0:02:59.239 I think the Tigers might have traded him at the 0:02:59.320 --> 0:03:02.560 right time. There's some red flag injury concerns in the 0:03:02.600 --> 0:03:05.519 Casey Mies profile. Strike up minus walk is dipped below 0:03:05.560 --> 0:03:09.120 major league average just nine percent in his past five starts. 0:03:09.240 --> 0:03:11.240 Granted to get shelt in his last start, and you 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:14.040 can write that one off a little bit. But if 0:03:14.320 --> 0:03:18.240 the ball percentage wasn't going up, if his fastball spin 0:03:18.480 --> 0:03:21.200 was it also dropping, I would be willing to write 0:03:21.200 --> 0:03:23.440 it off. It just seems like Casey Mayes is losing 0:03:23.440 --> 0:03:25.839 effectiveness as the season goes along. Here a guy's dealt 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:28.440 with injury, and Jo's injury issues in the past never 0:03:28.520 --> 0:03:32.200 really managed to get through full seasons. Might be fatiguing 0:03:32.240 --> 0:03:35.200 here in the second half. So not only do I 0:03:35.200 --> 0:03:37.760 project a starting pitching edge for the Brewers, also prefer 0:03:38.120 --> 0:03:40.560 their lineup. They project better about three points better in 0:03:40.680 --> 0:03:44.000 terms of WRC plus against righty's, but also they have 0:03:44.040 --> 0:03:47.200 more power. The Podres have more contact, which could be 0:03:47.240 --> 0:03:49.240 an issue for Henderson because Henderson throws a lot of 0:03:49.240 --> 0:03:50.720 balls in the middle of the zone and gets dudes 0:03:50.720 --> 0:03:52.320 to swing through them. We'll see if the Padres could 0:03:52.320 --> 0:03:55.960 follow those pitches off. But the Brewers have the better 0:03:56.000 --> 0:03:58.160 power and the better plate discipline of the pair, and 0:03:58.160 --> 0:04:01.080 also they're the better defensive and running team. So throughout 0:04:01.120 --> 0:04:03.240 the first five innings, I give you Brewers the advantage 0:04:03.560 --> 0:04:08.280 everywhere bullpen tilts towards the Podreys later in the game, 0:04:08.400 --> 0:04:10.680 especially because it looks like the Brewers may be down 0:04:10.760 --> 0:04:15.120 several key arms today. Avenuer Uribe I believe is tired. 0:04:15.200 --> 0:04:17.960 Ashby is tired, so that's why I stayed away from 0:04:18.000 --> 0:04:20.360 the full game line. I still show a slight edge 0:04:20.400 --> 0:04:21.960 on the Brewers over the full game, but it definitely 0:04:22.000 --> 0:04:23.920 a much bigger edge of the first five. So Brewers 0:04:23.920 --> 0:04:27.120 first five up to minus one thirty five. The alternative 0:04:27.200 --> 0:04:31.120 angle here it's correlated, but it's the alternative angle. Podrais 0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:34.279 team total under three and a half. It was minus 0:04:34.279 --> 0:04:36.839 one ten last night, it's minus one eighteen. Now I 0:04:36.880 --> 0:04:39.080 probably only like it up to about minus one twenty, 0:04:39.680 --> 0:04:41.880 but that would be the alternative vet if you can't 0:04:41.920 --> 0:04:44.520 get the first five numbers, just the first five numbers 0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:47.560 the same Brice essentially on. I think it's you know 0:04:47.680 --> 0:04:50.400 again with the bolt been stuff for the Brewers. It's 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:52.919 a bigger edge anyway. So the first the team total, 0:04:52.920 --> 0:04:54.680 and the money line sort of correlate to one another, 0:04:54.920 --> 0:04:56.720 but the first five is the biggest edge of the three. 0:04:57.080 --> 0:04:59.000 That would be the alternative approach. PO was taking one. 0:05:00.600 --> 0:05:05.640 Padres hanging around this playoff race, I know they've been 0:05:05.640 --> 0:05:09.120 a fade candidate, I believe early in the season in 0:05:09.200 --> 0:05:12.440 terms of playoff markets, it seems. 0:05:12.200 --> 0:05:15.320 Like it's never the Diamondbacks for that final spot there. Yeah, 0:05:15.320 --> 0:05:17.960 they had a pretty competitive series last week, so I 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:19.520 would expect it to come down to one of those 0:05:19.520 --> 0:05:20.000 two teams. 0:05:20.080 --> 0:05:23.960 Yeah, Diamondbacks Phillies currently tied for wild card spots two 0:05:24.080 --> 0:05:29.960 and three. Marlin's Cardinals also lurking there, but probably probably 0:05:29.960 --> 0:05:33.000 going to be Padres or Diamondbacks parting slip back a 0:05:33.000 --> 0:05:33.360 little bit? 0:05:33.400 --> 0:05:33.560 Right? 0:05:34.000 --> 0:05:34.680 What's that? 0:05:34.720 --> 0:05:36.479 The Pirates are starting to slip back a little bit? 0:05:36.560 --> 0:05:38.520 Yeah, they're I mean they've they're on a really five 0:05:38.560 --> 0:05:40.880 and a half. They're behind Washington and the Cardinals. 0:05:40.880 --> 0:05:42.560 Well, the Reds completely collapsed there. 0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:46.599 Yeah, bummer about the Pirates. I want to see them. 0:05:47.040 --> 0:05:50.719 You know they got those bullpen reinforcements. We'll see. Still 0:05:50.720 --> 0:05:53.919 a long way to go. Goodn't important to remember it 0:05:53.960 --> 0:05:57.880 is August tenth, and what was it like August twenty 0:05:57.920 --> 0:06:00.480 eighth last year or something like that, the Guardians worth 0:06:00.560 --> 0:06:02.360 thirteen and a half back of the Tigers. 0:06:02.440 --> 0:06:04.239 Yep, So a lot. 0:06:04.040 --> 0:06:07.000 Can happen still, even as as it gets late here. 0:06:07.120 --> 0:06:09.400 Yeah, every year we see one surprising team make run late, 0:06:09.480 --> 0:06:11.880 one team who's in a good spot collapses late. So 0:06:11.920 --> 0:06:14.440 something's gonna happen. We just don't know where it does. Yep, yep. 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:19.280 All right, next bet, we are going to the Mets 0:06:19.279 --> 0:06:24.680 and Braves in Atlanta tonight, Christian Scott against Bryce Elder 0:06:24.839 --> 0:06:26.480 and you're looking at another first five here. 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:29.239 Yeah, a bunch of first five bets today. I actually 0:06:29.279 --> 0:06:32.320 added one late as well, so we have five bets 0:06:32.360 --> 0:06:34.320 today for them or in the first five innings, and 0:06:34.320 --> 0:06:37.679 then we have one full game total. Christian Scott projects 0:06:37.720 --> 0:06:39.760 as a top forty starting pitcher for me. I have 0:06:39.839 --> 0:06:42.640 Bryce elder at one fifty two, so more than a 0:06:42.680 --> 0:06:45.720 full run in not more than a full run, about 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:48.560 a full run in terms of projected fit between these 0:06:48.600 --> 0:06:51.640 two starting pitchers, again, very similar stories. I just kind 0:06:51.680 --> 0:06:55.200 of discussed with Casey miz. You know, Christian Scott maintaining 0:06:55.279 --> 0:06:59.360 a strikeout minus walk about twenty four percent. Elders has 0:06:59.360 --> 0:07:02.080 fallen below le gaverage. He's sitting around eight percent in 0:07:02.160 --> 0:07:05.279 his recent sample. His velocity is dipped, fastball spin is 0:07:05.279 --> 0:07:07.000 about the same, but the ball rate is going up, 0:07:07.040 --> 0:07:10.320 so he's just not being nearly as efficient in terms 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:13.680 of his pitch. Mis ball rate's been over forty percent 0:07:13.720 --> 0:07:16.640 twice in his past three starts. It's very concerning. Christian 0:07:16.640 --> 0:07:18.320 Scott since he came back for the Mets, has looked 0:07:18.400 --> 0:07:22.840 hyper efficient, arguably been their best starter aside from Nolan McLain. 0:07:23.040 --> 0:07:25.040 Old McClain's been taking off in the second half. But 0:07:25.080 --> 0:07:27.040 with those two guys going forward, it seems like they 0:07:27.080 --> 0:07:31.160 have a pretty nice core atop their rotation. And then again, 0:07:31.240 --> 0:07:34.440 you know, not just the projections, or I should say, 0:07:34.520 --> 0:07:37.200 you know, projections push these guys closer together. The underlying 0:07:37.240 --> 0:07:40.560 indicators say that they're further apart. So another place where 0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:42.800 I sort of disagree with the projections. The deeper we 0:07:42.840 --> 0:07:45.840 get into a season, you know, as we have more 0:07:45.920 --> 0:07:48.400 underlying data for these guys, I'm more willing to trust it. 0:07:49.000 --> 0:07:51.560 The Braves have the better offense here, they have the 0:07:51.600 --> 0:07:54.600 better bullpen. Again why I'm staying away from the full 0:07:54.600 --> 0:07:56.240 game edge, But in terms of the first five I 0:07:56.280 --> 0:07:58.240 actually make the Mets a slight favorite. I have them 0:07:58.560 --> 0:08:00.600 at about minus one oh seven. Was able to get 0:08:00.640 --> 0:08:03.120 plus one seventeen this morning. I would take that down 0:08:03.120 --> 0:08:06.120 to even money, and then again, like the last game 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:08.840 I discussed, the alternative here would be a team total approach. 0:08:08.920 --> 0:08:11.520 These are the only two team totals that currently show 0:08:11.520 --> 0:08:13.800 an edge right now. Actually there's a third, but I'd 0:08:13.880 --> 0:08:16.640 rather avoid that one. But the Padres, as I said, 0:08:16.720 --> 0:08:18.920 under three and a half minus one eighteen, the Mets 0:08:18.960 --> 0:08:21.600 over three and a half minus one eighteen, same number, 0:08:21.640 --> 0:08:23.600 bigger edge. I like that up to about minus one 0:08:23.640 --> 0:08:27.080 twenty five, and the Mets, as I said, the first 0:08:27.080 --> 0:08:31.600 five money line is plus one seventeen down to even money. 0:08:31.880 --> 0:08:33.920 That's where i'd take that number. But I actually like 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:35.920 the the team total. Here is why I may end 0:08:36.040 --> 0:08:39.000 up adding that, because the Braves may have some guys 0:08:39.320 --> 0:08:43.160 who are down today as well, and Olds pitched well. 0:08:43.240 --> 0:08:44.880 I guess you would say based on the game logs 0:08:44.920 --> 0:08:47.360 lately two runs, one run, one run past three starts, 0:08:47.360 --> 0:08:50.360 but you look at the strikeouts and walks like pretty 0:08:50.400 --> 0:08:53.000 much even, it's just he's not as efficient and he's 0:08:53.000 --> 0:08:55.640 going to get hit at some point, hopefully that is today. 0:08:55.640 --> 0:08:57.640 But we'll take some first five money line and consider 0:08:57.679 --> 0:09:00.560 adding the team total once the Mets lineup drops. Mets. 0:09:00.640 --> 0:09:03.560 Mets have been hitting, you know, Semion finally hitting over 0:09:03.559 --> 0:09:06.040 the past couple of weeks, Jorge Polanco, who at one 0:09:06.080 --> 0:09:09.760 point had a lower slash line than lou gerrig suffering 0:09:09.760 --> 0:09:12.840 from als that was pretty devastating for Horey Polanco's now 0:09:13.040 --> 0:09:17.320 this season, he's now finally hitting. Francisco Alvarez has been 0:09:17.360 --> 0:09:20.040 on a tear of late my dude, so it seems 0:09:20.080 --> 0:09:22.120 like this is the best the Mets offense has performed 0:09:22.120 --> 0:09:24.760 this year without Juan Soto in the lineup, so hopefully 0:09:24.760 --> 0:09:26.440 they can keep it going tonight and get Christian Scott's 0:09:26.440 --> 0:09:27.080 some early runs. 0:09:27.760 --> 0:09:32.240 Polanco and Semion specifically getting hot after the Mets fall 0:09:32.240 --> 0:09:34.600 out of contention would be just it's just like a 0:09:34.840 --> 0:09:36.680 knife in the back. Basically, it's like, yeah, I. 0:09:36.640 --> 0:09:38.959 Think Lou Bob Homer yesterday as well, like they're all 0:09:39.000 --> 0:09:39.839 they're all going now. 0:09:39.960 --> 0:09:45.480 So yeah, interesting little playoff subplot these last two months too, 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:47.760 is the Braves are actually ahead of the Dodgers right 0:09:47.800 --> 0:09:50.640 now for that second National League payoff seed, and of 0:09:50.720 --> 0:09:53.840 course that's the the other by uh in the first round. 0:09:53.920 --> 0:09:55.680 So that's a that's a big deal and something to 0:09:55.760 --> 0:09:56.360 keep an eye on. 0:09:56.720 --> 0:09:58.480 Yeah, Dodgers didn't get the buy last year and then 0:09:58.480 --> 0:10:00.760 we got a last year card round to win the 0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:01.360 World Ares. 0:10:02.320 --> 0:10:07.200 Speaking of the Dodgers, they are at home against the 0:10:07.280 --> 0:10:11.280 Royals tonight. Trek Skubele making his second Dodger start against 0:10:11.320 --> 0:10:13.920 Noah Cameron. He's looking at this right before we recorded 0:10:14.600 --> 0:10:20.439 biggest favorites of the year Dodgers. As of this recording consensus, 0:10:20.440 --> 0:10:23.240 Odge they're minus three to twenty five on the money line. 0:10:23.920 --> 0:10:27.360 That would be if it closes there, the seventh biggest 0:10:27.400 --> 0:10:31.360 favorite of this season. Of the other six, four of 0:10:31.400 --> 0:10:34.160 those are also Dodgers games. Not surprisingly, we have a 0:10:34.200 --> 0:10:39.760 Dodgers Rockies, a Dodgers Giants, a Dodger's Angels, and another 0:10:39.800 --> 0:10:42.240 Dodger's Rockies on there, and then we have a Brewer's 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:47.280 Rockies in a Phillies Nationals. The only favorite that lost 0:10:47.320 --> 0:10:50.360 of those other six were the Dodgers against the Giants 0:10:50.400 --> 0:10:54.000 back in early May. They lost six to two. As 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:59.920 minus three forty four favorites. Today again Scooble against Cameron. 0:11:00.640 --> 0:11:03.880 The Dodgers are minus three twenty five Royals plus two 0:11:03.960 --> 0:11:08.480 sixty on the underdogs, and you do have a You're 0:11:08.480 --> 0:11:11.960 not it doesn't look like you're going full game Royals here, 0:11:11.960 --> 0:11:13.559 but you do have an angle where you like the 0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:15.080 underdogs just based on the price. 0:11:15.120 --> 0:11:17.600 I'm guessing yeah, I show an edge for the full 0:11:17.640 --> 0:11:19.280 game as well, but a bigger edge for the first 0:11:19.320 --> 0:11:22.200 five innings. So attacking Scoobols specifically in the first five 0:11:22.320 --> 0:11:25.200 seems like an awkward approach. Not getting the bullpens involved. 0:11:25.320 --> 0:11:27.840 I hate this Royals bullpen. I would much rather have 0:11:28.120 --> 0:11:30.880 just no camera involved over the first five innings and 0:11:30.920 --> 0:11:34.800 more importantly, guaranteed having a lefty in there for at 0:11:34.880 --> 0:11:36.880 least the first four or four and a half innings 0:11:37.160 --> 0:11:39.679 against the Dodgers offense, which, as I pointed out, number 0:11:39.679 --> 0:11:41.760 one a baseball against right end and pitching one thirteen 0:11:41.880 --> 0:11:44.839 worc plus even with their recent funk. But they are 0:11:45.080 --> 0:11:47.440 six against lefties and they drop to a one oh 0:11:47.640 --> 0:11:51.080 six and again shut down by Edward or Rodriguez yesterday. 0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:54.040 They just struggle a little bit more with lefties. Once 0:11:54.080 --> 0:11:57.000 you're able to neutralize Otani and Freeman and Munsey at 0:11:57.000 --> 0:11:59.560 the top of that lineup, everything else kind of falls 0:11:59.559 --> 0:12:02.400 into play, gets a little bit easier. Mookie Betts has 0:12:02.440 --> 0:12:05.480 had a significant down year. Still know Will Smith in 0:12:05.520 --> 0:12:07.400 the middle of that lineup, which you know against the 0:12:07.480 --> 0:12:10.920 left handed starter is a big difference. So having a 0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:13.199 catcher in your nine to hole that can't really hit 0:12:13.679 --> 0:12:16.240 is a big difference for this daughter's lineup. They don't 0:12:16.240 --> 0:12:19.040 go nine deep like they normally do, even having against 0:12:19.080 --> 0:12:21.199 the left thee having Miguel Rojas in the eight spot 0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:22.920 like it is a little bit of a sigh of relief, 0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:24.199 you know, when you get to the bottom of that 0:12:24.280 --> 0:12:27.480 daughter's lineup compared to what it normally looks like. And 0:12:27.600 --> 0:12:30.280 right now Noah Cameron has been going well. He's been 0:12:30.320 --> 0:12:33.839 a very streaky pitcher in his brief major league sample 0:12:33.920 --> 0:12:36.199 year and a half major league sample that we've had 0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:39.360 of him, But his past three starts seven innings, eight innings, 0:12:39.720 --> 0:12:44.160 eight innings, strikeouts and walks on the increase. For Tark Schooble, 0:12:44.640 --> 0:12:47.000 we haven't discussed it a lot this year, but his 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:49.960 fastball spin rate has been dipping continuously. I think this 0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:51.880 guy is just hoping he can get to the off 0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:54.720 season healthy and get his contract that if he's going 0:12:54.760 --> 0:12:57.440 to break again, hopefully it happens next year, because there's 0:12:57.480 --> 0:13:00.120 definitely not only did he have the il stint, but 0:13:00.160 --> 0:13:03.199 there's signs of injury in his profile in the fastball, 0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:07.160 the declining called strike close wolf rate at points throughout 0:13:07.200 --> 0:13:10.560 the year. I haven't downgraded him whatsoever. I still project 0:13:10.600 --> 0:13:12.320 him as my SP two. I still have him at 0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:15.360 a two point seven weighted fit projection, which is right 0:13:15.360 --> 0:13:17.560 around his era in the year two point eight. But 0:13:17.720 --> 0:13:20.760 over the first five innings, I make the Royals about 0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:23.760 plus two hundred. I would take their first five money 0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:27.040 line two plus two thirty. But what I really like here, 0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:30.120 which you don't get often, is the first five spread 0:13:30.120 --> 0:13:33.440 at plus one and a half, not plus the half 0:13:33.640 --> 0:13:35.360 plus one and a half. You could still lose the 0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:39.000 first five innings money line and cash this ticket. I 0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:41.920 would take that up to about minus one forty. I 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:44.520 make it closer to minus one fifty. For the plus 0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:48.480 one and a half, I make it about plus one 0:13:49.800 --> 0:13:53.200 plus blanking on it. My price target for the plus 0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:55.640 half is plus one forty. If you want to play 0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:58.400 the first five money line, take it to plus two thirty. 0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:00.000 But I really like that plus one and a half 0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:03.960 for the first five innings. Hopefully Royle's just keep it 0:14:03.960 --> 0:14:06.280 within a run. Hopefully they're able to get a run 0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:09.040 off of Schooble and eliminate some of the sweat. But 0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:11.560 taking a shot year yes, as you said, against the 0:14:11.600 --> 0:14:14.360 second biggest favorite on the year, but in the first 0:14:14.360 --> 0:14:17.319 five innings specifically on the spread. You can mess around 0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:19.360 with the money line or the half a run, but 0:14:19.400 --> 0:14:21.120 I really like getting that plus one and a half. 0:14:21.120 --> 0:14:23.280 It just does not pop up often and you only 0:14:23.320 --> 0:14:24.840 really get it when you have a favorite north of 0:14:24.840 --> 0:14:27.240 minus three hundred. So Royals plus one and a half 0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:29.240 to minus one forty my bet in that game. There 0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:31.360 is value on the full game money line. There's value 0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:33.320 on the first five money line if you want to 0:14:33.320 --> 0:14:34.920 mess around with it, and with the way the Dodters 0:14:34.960 --> 0:14:37.480 are playing right now, maybe it's worth a shot. I 0:14:37.480 --> 0:14:39.400 believe they've lost eight of nine or nine of ten 0:14:39.840 --> 0:14:43.040 at this point. But yeah, that's a number that you 0:14:43.120 --> 0:14:44.600 just don't see often and how to grab it. 0:14:45.440 --> 0:14:47.320 Yeah, I mean, we've been doing this together for a 0:14:47.360 --> 0:14:49.480 long time, and I, off the top of my head, 0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:52.600 can't recall an instance of you betting a run line. 0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:54.760 I'm sure you'd have done it from time to times 0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:56.720 over the years, but it's rare enough that I can't 0:14:56.720 --> 0:14:58.840 recall it an instance off the top of my head. 0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:01.840 So that's just a good example of how how much 0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:05.240 of this value's popping in terms of Royal's money line. 0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:07.640 You know, I pulled up the Bartolo tool when I 0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:09.960 woke up this morning and I saw the edges, and 0:15:10.000 --> 0:15:12.160 this is if you're betting Royal's money line, it is 0:15:12.520 --> 0:15:15.160 prime candidate for your bonus bets. 0:15:15.160 --> 0:15:16.880 If you've got bonus, you know it's going to be uh, 0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:18.880 you know it's going to be a fade the public 0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:19.680 type of spot today. 0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:21.840 Yes, I went in there and I had a bonus 0:15:21.840 --> 0:15:23.080 bet at one of the books, and I went in 0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:24.800 there and just threw it on Royal's money line. I'm like, 0:15:24.840 --> 0:15:27.560 why not? This is it's a great those like plus 0:15:27.600 --> 0:15:30.960 two hundred to plus three hundred range bets are a 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:35.520 great spot for it. So we will root against Trek 0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:38.080 Scubel once again today. You talk about I mean his 0:15:38.160 --> 0:15:41.000 injury history. Everyone knows, I mean his his big injury 0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:42.840 this year that people thought was going to end up 0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:46.320 being a lot serious than it was. The short memories 0:15:46.360 --> 0:15:49.440 that folks have, you know, back to back Cy Young's 0:15:49.680 --> 0:15:53.920 before twenty twenty four, Scooble was known as a talented 0:15:53.920 --> 0:15:56.560 pitcher who couldn't stay healthy. Like, yeah, he had Tommy 0:15:56.600 --> 0:16:01.360 Johns in his past. His career high in innings before 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:03.600 twenty twenty four was one hundred and forty nine innings. 0:16:03.880 --> 0:16:06.240 He had thrown only eighty innings the year before his 0:16:06.280 --> 0:16:09.720 first Cy Young like that dude had arm trouble. So 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:14.640 you know, he seems unhittable at times. But like, it's 0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:18.480 a very volatile profession starting pitching in Major League Baseball, 0:16:19.200 --> 0:16:21.040 and it could go south in a hurry. Obviously, we 0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:22.360 don't root for that at all. 0:16:22.680 --> 0:16:24.800 He's added a lot of weight to his frame as well. 0:16:24.800 --> 0:16:27.000 Over time. I think it's helped, you know, make him 0:16:27.000 --> 0:16:29.520 more durable. But the same time, he's throwing as hard 0:16:29.560 --> 0:16:32.920 as ever. He is like very bulky in his upper half. 0:16:33.120 --> 0:16:36.840 I do wonder about his durability long term. You know, 0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:39.320 c C. Sabathia had a lot of weight on him, 0:16:39.440 --> 0:16:41.400 was able to pitch forever through a ton of innings. 0:16:41.440 --> 0:16:43.960 So maybe it's not a big deal. But Cec also 0:16:44.080 --> 0:16:46.280 never had that prior injury history. Cee Cee was a 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:49.200 horse throughout his career, school's had the injury history. Now 0:16:49.200 --> 0:16:51.360 he has that added weight on his frame. I do 0:16:51.440 --> 0:16:54.360 worry about him breaking down. And I think if the 0:16:54.400 --> 0:16:56.880 Dodgers signed him and he breaks down, and then they 0:16:56.920 --> 0:17:00.560 have that contract and Kyle Tucker's contract on books together, 0:17:00.600 --> 0:17:02.760 It's not like they really care from their perspective, but 0:17:03.160 --> 0:17:05.639 that Kyle Tucker contract is already looking pretty bad, and 0:17:05.640 --> 0:17:06.840 I don't know how many more of those they can 0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:07.560 afford to take on. 0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:12.560 Yeah, I mean, it doesn't last forever. A whole other 0:17:12.560 --> 0:17:14.479 side conversation we don't need to get into, but like, 0:17:16.359 --> 0:17:19.240 it doesn't last forever, Like these guys get old, Otani 0:17:19.400 --> 0:17:22.080 will get old, you know, bets, we're already seeing Freeman's 0:17:22.119 --> 0:17:26.360 getting old. Like it seems just people who are old 0:17:26.440 --> 0:17:29.680 enough to remember the late nineties, early two thousands Yankees. 0:17:29.720 --> 0:17:32.520 You just felt like they were going to win the 0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:37.160 World Series or be right there every single year forever. 0:17:37.280 --> 0:17:38.960 It seemed like it was never going to end. But 0:17:39.040 --> 0:17:42.119 guess what it ended. People have very short memories with 0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:46.239 these things. The Dodgers are World Series favorites this year. 0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:48.400 They're probably going to be World Series favorites next year. 0:17:48.480 --> 0:17:51.840 Will they win it? Who knows, But all good things 0:17:51.840 --> 0:17:52.520 come to an end. 0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:55.920 It worth noting too. You know, I don't know if 0:17:55.920 --> 0:17:58.720 you saw the data. You know, Sayah's put out, but 0:17:58.760 --> 0:18:01.280 the Dodgers have seen the biggest increase in four seat 0:18:01.359 --> 0:18:05.440 fastball rate against them. It's almost like the league decided, Hey, 0:18:05.560 --> 0:18:07.520 this is a team full of old dudes. Why are 0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:09.840 we throwing them spin when we could just throw it 0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:11.600 hard and see if they could catch up with it. 0:18:12.119 --> 0:18:15.040 So there's been a change in pitching approach against the 0:18:15.080 --> 0:18:17.760 Daughters of late, which coincides with this cold streak. So 0:18:17.760 --> 0:18:20.160 we'll see if they adjust back now that the league 0:18:20.240 --> 0:18:22.360 is adjusted to them. But yeah, I think it's it's 0:18:22.440 --> 0:18:25.320 an interesting strategy of this team's. You know, average age 0:18:25.320 --> 0:18:27.840 of this lineup is like thirty three years old. Why 0:18:27.840 --> 0:18:29.320 not throw the ball harder and see if they get 0:18:29.400 --> 0:18:30.040 hit it. 0:18:29.520 --> 0:18:33.359 It is the oldest roster in the majors by average age, 0:18:34.280 --> 0:18:37.720 no surprises there. The only young guy who gets regular 0:18:37.800 --> 0:18:41.240 run in their lineup iss Andy pat Has, who's great obviously. 0:18:41.840 --> 0:18:43.359 Great work if you can get it too, like to 0:18:43.359 --> 0:18:45.520 be a Tyler Glass now or like a Blake Snow 0:18:45.640 --> 0:18:47.960 where like they're signing you for twenty million dollars a 0:18:48.080 --> 0:18:51.440 year just for October. Like their expectation is like, hey, 0:18:51.520 --> 0:18:54.199 pitch fifty innings and be healthy for the playoffs, you 0:18:54.200 --> 0:18:56.040 know if you need to, Like you're just kind of 0:18:56.040 --> 0:18:58.840 on vacation there to take making twenty five million dollars 0:18:58.880 --> 0:19:02.240 a year rehaving constantly living in LA and then when 0:19:02.240 --> 0:19:04.920 the playoffs roll around, you're just guaranteed a playoff spot 0:19:04.920 --> 0:19:07.320 if you're one of the four best pictures. So it's 0:19:07.520 --> 0:19:10.200 quite the organization they've built there where they have these 0:19:10.240 --> 0:19:12.440 twenty million dollars pittures if they don't even need until 0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:13.120 the playoffs start. 0:19:13.400 --> 0:19:18.359 Yep, all right, we will move from the Dodgers naturally 0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:20.800 to the other team you think about when you think 0:19:20.800 --> 0:19:25.000