WEBVTT - Mike Nizza on New Presidential Polls (Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>He's taking stock with Kathleen Hayes and Pimp Box on

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. New polls, same candidates, different states. Let's find

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<v Speaker 1>out more from Mike Nietze. He is executive editor Bloomberg Politics.

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<v Speaker 1>You can follow him on Twitter at Mike Nitza. Mike,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks for coming in. Appreciate it all right, so give

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<v Speaker 1>us an update. I know there's a new poll and

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<v Speaker 1>it has to do with Colorado. So yeah, Colorado is

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<v Speaker 1>one of the major battleground states. That's also uh, one

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<v Speaker 1>of the four that comprise Hillary Clinton's firewall where they

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<v Speaker 1>you know, they can swing either way. They have a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of different things going on demographically, but uh, and

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<v Speaker 1>as Trump started gaining in states like Ohio and Florida

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<v Speaker 1>and North Carolina, there are questions about whether he could

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<v Speaker 1>start to turn Colorado too. And in the latest poll

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<v Speaker 1>released late last night, the answer was no. Among the

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<v Speaker 1>battleground states kind of ranked them in terms of most

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<v Speaker 1>electoral votes at least. Well, you know, you have big

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<v Speaker 1>ones that are really not in contention, like Florida, New York,

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<v Speaker 1>Arc Texas, and uh, that's that's the We don't really

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<v Speaker 1>talk about those that much, even though they bring a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of electoral votes. But then there are two major

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<v Speaker 1>battlegrounds that bring a lot, and that's Ohio and Florida

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<v Speaker 1>and so uh and those two are the tightest ones

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<v Speaker 1>that that we're looking at right now. You mentioned Texas.

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<v Speaker 1>I just wanted that maybe just we can go through

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<v Speaker 1>this because because Texas is what are the what's the

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<v Speaker 1>polling saying, and what is the likelihood? Yeah, they'll see

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<v Speaker 1>states that are um less competitive yet less polling. So

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<v Speaker 1>what we see out of there is kind of like,

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<v Speaker 1>uh is slipshots sometimes, but it's definitely closer than it's

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<v Speaker 1>been in previous elections. And a lot of that has

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<v Speaker 1>to do with the Hispanic population in Texas. And uh.

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<v Speaker 1>To that point, Hillary Clinton announced plans to open her

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<v Speaker 1>first office in El Paso, UM yesterday, so she definitely

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<v Speaker 1>sees a little softening there and that could either be

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<v Speaker 1>as a way. It might not be to win the

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<v Speaker 1>state because that seems a little much in this election,

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<v Speaker 1>but it could be to put Trump on the defensive.

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<v Speaker 1>So diverse resources there and said of somewhere else, and

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<v Speaker 1>of course it's Texas is not just it seems to

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<v Speaker 1>be a pretty red state. We can agree on that,

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<v Speaker 1>except for Austin, they call it a data blue and

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<v Speaker 1>the ocean of red. Right. When it comes to Florida,

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<v Speaker 1>one are the latest polls showing, and again the spanning

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<v Speaker 1>vote is a different you know, the spanning people are

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<v Speaker 1>differently around the country. They're not uniform exactly, but how

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<v Speaker 1>what how things shape up there? Yeah, the big difference

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<v Speaker 1>in Florida when it comes to the Hispanic vote are

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<v Speaker 1>Cuban Republicans, um. And that's been uh, that's been a

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<v Speaker 1>standard that the Republicans could rely on for a for

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<v Speaker 1>a long time. Uh. And also the Republican Party after

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<v Speaker 1>the loss in the tent twelve election, really tried to

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<v Speaker 1>push to appeal to more Hispanics because of Florida first

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<v Speaker 1>and foremost and in some other areas. Um. But the

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<v Speaker 1>polls right now are it's so close, it's really hard

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<v Speaker 1>to tell who's up. Trump's up by two and some

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<v Speaker 1>it's tied another as and Hillary Clint is up by

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<v Speaker 1>by a few points in others. So um, it's it's

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<v Speaker 1>really comes down to things like waiting and various poster

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<v Speaker 1>strategies for for figuring out the electorate. And at the

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<v Speaker 1>end of the day, it's going to be about turnout,

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<v Speaker 1>turn up well, and let me just give you the

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<v Speaker 1>number just so you got if anyone's taken down the

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<v Speaker 1>electoral votes. I mean, you know Texas thirty eight, Florida

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<v Speaker 1>and Ohio eighteen. Turn your attention to the debate. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>interested to understand what it is that you think it's

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<v Speaker 1>going to happen. Yeah, this is the taking place at

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<v Speaker 1>Hofstra University on Monday, the Monday night. And uh, and

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<v Speaker 1>it's going to be ninety minutes of just Hillary Clinton

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<v Speaker 1>on stage next to Donald Trump with one moderator, Lesser

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<v Speaker 1>Wholt of NBC News. And uh, it's really the first

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<v Speaker 1>time that tens of millions of Americans will see these

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<v Speaker 1>two next to each other, you know, without any filter whatsoever. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>And and it's the first time that both of them

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<v Speaker 1>will be away from their handlers and and will be

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<v Speaker 1>kind of left their own to their own devices. So

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<v Speaker 1>as much as they can prepare and have different strategies,

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<v Speaker 1>anything could happen in those ninety minutes. Mike, what is

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<v Speaker 1>the reporting of the Bloomberg Politics team showing in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of how Donald Trump pool approach his debate, how he'll

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<v Speaker 1>face Hillary and vice versa, how Hillary will try to

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<v Speaker 1>set up an overpower Donald Trump. So I think one

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<v Speaker 1>thing that they both have in common is they they

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<v Speaker 1>love nothing more than criticizing each other. It's Hillary Clinton

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<v Speaker 1>has delivered some of her strongest speeches kind of uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, hitting him on on character issues, making fun

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<v Speaker 1>of him, etcetera. And as we know, Donald Trump goes

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<v Speaker 1>on a lot about cricket, cricket Hillary, So that's kind

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<v Speaker 1>of the equalizer. I think the question is how they're

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<v Speaker 1>able to deliver those criticisms and and uh, and Trump's

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<v Speaker 1>camp has been He's been hearing from a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>advisors who say that he should be aggressive and put

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<v Speaker 1>her on the defensive and kind of not let her

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<v Speaker 1>take control of the debate. And that will be something

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<v Speaker 1>that can go well for him or make him look lickabully. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I just want to mention also that Twitter is going

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<v Speaker 1>to show Bloomberg TV's coverage of the three presidential debates

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<v Speaker 1>and also the one featuring the vice presidents, which comes

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<v Speaker 1>I believe in October. Correct. Then, uh, and that's all

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<v Speaker 1>going to be through the through the app. It's really cool. So, Myke,

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<v Speaker 1>how much difference to presidential debates look back? How much

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<v Speaker 1>difference they make in terms of where the polls stand

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<v Speaker 1>before and after, who gets elected who doesn't. There's there's

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<v Speaker 1>definitely a lot of anticipation, but at the end of

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<v Speaker 1>the day, it hasn't moved a lot of elections lately.

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<v Speaker 1>Um there was the biggest scare for the Obama campaign

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<v Speaker 1>and the last election was after the first debate which

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<v Speaker 1>Romney uh Romney one and he enjoyed a quick surgeon

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<v Speaker 1>the polls, but things returned back to normal long before

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<v Speaker 1>election days. Just this is going to be the gift

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<v Speaker 1>that keeps on giving. Definitely, we'll have lots to tweet

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<v Speaker 1>out that evening, that's for sure. Make Mezza thanks so

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<v Speaker 1>much for joining us. He's executive editor for Bloomberg Politics,

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<v Speaker 1>taking a look at the latest polls, which show Hillary

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<v Speaker 1>Clinton moving ahead in one that's very important to her

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<v Speaker 1>campaign in Colorado, and of course a previewing how all

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<v Speaker 1>things will go on a Monday night for those debates,

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<v Speaker 1>and his Pim just noted Twitter will be showing Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>TV's coverage of the three debates, so you won't want

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<v Speaker 1>to miss that. Keep it right here. This is Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>m