WEBVTT - A Deep Dive Into Jobs, The Markets, And Crypto 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.560 --> 0:00:15.600 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.479 on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:21.760 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Now, let's get over 0:00:21.800 --> 0:00:26.119 to the chief economist at KPMG. Constance Hunter joins us 0:00:26.160 --> 0:00:31.120 with her take on the jobs report and the economy. Um. Constance, 0:00:31.160 --> 0:00:32.839 thanks so much for joining us. Always great to get 0:00:32.880 --> 0:00:35.280 your take. I wonder if, first off, what you think 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:38.559 what you thought of the numbers? One thousand better than 0:00:39.120 --> 0:00:42.000 the street was looking for, better than the whisper number 0:00:42.080 --> 0:00:45.720 as well, and we had wages up, although not faster 0:00:45.800 --> 0:00:49.000 than inflation as the presidents at earlier four point nine percent, 0:00:49.080 --> 0:00:51.720 which is better than a stick in the eyes. My 0:00:51.760 --> 0:00:57.080 stockbroker always tells me, yeah, well, I agree with you. 0:00:57.400 --> 0:01:00.600 It's uh. It's a strong report and and it shows 0:01:00.680 --> 0:01:03.320 broad based job scheme. So when we look at things 0:01:03.360 --> 0:01:06.160 like the diffusion index, right, we see it at a 0:01:06.160 --> 0:01:09.280 at a at a high UH, and it shows that 0:01:09.319 --> 0:01:12.000 employers are adding workers. We also saw some things which 0:01:12.080 --> 0:01:16.200 might seem counterintuitive at first. For example, we saw hourly 0:01:17.120 --> 0:01:20.280 weekly hours work to go down slightly, and this has 0:01:20.319 --> 0:01:23.800 been at an all time high after the pandemic because 0:01:23.800 --> 0:01:28.039 workers are Employers are having difficulty finding workers, so they're 0:01:28.080 --> 0:01:30.760 taking the workers they do have and adding more hours 0:01:30.840 --> 0:01:32.840 onto them. And those are not necessarily hours that all 0:01:32.880 --> 0:01:36.679 those workers want. So when we take it in total, 0:01:36.840 --> 0:01:39.200 it's a very good sign. We have momentum. We have 0:01:39.640 --> 0:01:43.160 manufacturing jobs coming back, especially in autos. We've leaves are 0:01:43.200 --> 0:01:47.160 in hospitality jobs coming back. So overall, a great report, 0:01:47.680 --> 0:01:51.279 and it suggests we're the speed bump from the delta 0:01:51.280 --> 0:01:54.040 brea that we saw in the third quarters is passed 0:01:54.120 --> 0:01:56.320 up constant for the time being. Forgive me, because I'm 0:01:56.320 --> 0:01:58.360 a little bit of the perma bear here at Bloomberg. 0:01:58.440 --> 0:02:01.880 And this labor force participate patient rate, Yes it's stable, 0:02:02.280 --> 0:02:06.800 but it's still not moving. So you know, how do 0:02:06.840 --> 0:02:10.200 we get that number to start making some gains? And 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:13.040 I'll use a Muhammedalarians term here and say, you know 0:02:13.080 --> 0:02:17.920 it was a disappointment. Yeah, Well, so what we saw 0:02:18.360 --> 0:02:20.480 and what I looked at was the also the female 0:02:20.560 --> 0:02:24.000 labor force participation, which went up two tenths of a 0:02:24.040 --> 0:02:27.680 percentage point. But we have a considerable sticking point here, 0:02:27.840 --> 0:02:31.400 and this is that we still have temper cent fewer 0:02:31.680 --> 0:02:36.200 childcare workers than prior to the pandemic. UM and this 0:02:36.440 --> 0:02:40.000 creates knock on effects, right because if you can't find childcare, 0:02:40.600 --> 0:02:44.160 you're you yourself then may not be in the labor 0:02:44.160 --> 0:02:46.320 force because you have to be home taking care of children. 0:02:46.480 --> 0:02:48.840 Between six to eight percent of the labor force has 0:02:48.960 --> 0:02:52.760 children under the age of six UM and so so 0:02:52.840 --> 0:02:55.359 this creates knock on problems. And the question is when 0:02:55.400 --> 0:02:57.840 do those childcare workers go back or do they go 0:02:57.919 --> 0:03:00.440 back if they start to look for other jobs. Will 0:03:00.560 --> 0:03:02.760 will they not fully go back until children under the 0:03:02.800 --> 0:03:05.000 age of six are vaccinated? Will they not fully go 0:03:05.040 --> 0:03:10.359 back until we have you know, really UM, widespread remediation 0:03:10.560 --> 0:03:12.800 if you if you catch COVID for example, like this 0:03:12.919 --> 0:03:16.040 fisor product that was announced this morning. UM. And I 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:18.560 think what we're seeing is that this pandemic in the 0:03:18.639 --> 0:03:21.720 rear view mirror is something we keep expecting to happen 0:03:21.800 --> 0:03:25.480 in the next month and the next quarter, and the 0:03:25.600 --> 0:03:28.720 virus keeps coming back and it is it is where 0:03:28.760 --> 0:03:32.520 we see these sort of persistent problems in labor force 0:03:32.560 --> 0:03:37.160 participation and in the ability of the economy to completely recover. 0:03:37.200 --> 0:03:40.440 I'm not just here, but but globally constance. Today is 0:03:40.440 --> 0:03:44.520 my birthday. I know how thank you I'm getting older. 0:03:44.640 --> 0:03:47.800 I'm getting old. I'm I'm four twelve year old. That's 0:03:47.800 --> 0:03:51.240 also cooler. Thank you. It makes me think about the 0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:56.200 older people as well. UM plus in labor participation is 0:03:56.240 --> 0:03:59.680 not climbing back to the pre pandemic levels. I think 0:03:59.720 --> 0:04:01.600 part of that is and I know a lot of 0:04:01.600 --> 0:04:04.560 people who have been able to retire a little earlier 0:04:04.560 --> 0:04:07.000 and they thought they would, um, they didn't feel like 0:04:07.360 --> 0:04:10.880 dealing and therefore, oh one case did really well? Are 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:13.360 we is that part of what we're seeing a little 0:04:13.360 --> 0:04:17.440 bit of a structural change. So there was a great 0:04:17.440 --> 0:04:20.400 paper presentative Jackson Hole this year that addresses sort of 0:04:20.400 --> 0:04:23.880 this issue of retirement and participation and what happens during 0:04:23.920 --> 0:04:28.080 recessions and then what happens during recoveries and expansions, and 0:04:28.160 --> 0:04:32.479 so the longer the expansion, the more likely it is 0:04:32.520 --> 0:04:35.880 some of those people who are retired or did retire 0:04:35.960 --> 0:04:40.159 temporarily come back to the labor force. UM and and 0:04:40.240 --> 0:04:43.080 that depends on the on the length of the expansion 0:04:43.279 --> 0:04:47.160 and the variety of UH opportunities available, as well as 0:04:47.200 --> 0:04:53.000 people's personal circumstances. So we think that eventually that participation 0:04:53.120 --> 0:04:55.479 rate does start to return. But you bring up a 0:04:55.480 --> 0:04:58.320 good point. The probability of people over the age of 0:04:58.360 --> 0:05:02.520 fifty five returning is lower than the possibility of prime 0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:06.440 age workers who say they're retired returning, and and it 0:05:06.800 --> 0:05:10.960 does bring us to this sort of long term UH 0:05:11.440 --> 0:05:14.400 so called deficit of consumption, which is one of the 0:05:14.480 --> 0:05:18.240 reasons why we've had the disinflation and deflation of the 0:05:18.320 --> 0:05:20.719 last several decades, and one of the reasons that people 0:05:20.760 --> 0:05:23.760 think the inflation is transitory. I'm going to use the 0:05:23.839 --> 0:05:31.120 T word transitory is state dependent, not time dependent. So 0:05:32.160 --> 0:05:35.719 the state that the transitory inflation is dependent upon is COVID. 0:05:36.120 --> 0:05:40.400 The problem is that state COVID is lasting much longer 0:05:40.440 --> 0:05:44.080 than people anticipated. So I also want to switch gears 0:05:44.120 --> 0:05:46.680 here a little bit and talk about that's a great point, 0:05:46.680 --> 0:05:49.919 though let's I mean, I just want to linger on 0:05:49.960 --> 0:05:52.000 that for a second, because I haven't heard that, and 0:05:52.040 --> 0:05:56.040 that makes a lot of sense. Being transitory is state 0:05:56.080 --> 0:05:58.960 dependent and not time dependent. It reminds me a little 0:05:58.960 --> 0:06:02.760 bit of you know, I was um having a discussion 0:06:02.800 --> 0:06:05.520 with Anna Edwards this morning about our fossil fuel use 0:06:05.520 --> 0:06:09.560 and she said, yes, the President wants OPEC to pump more, 0:06:09.600 --> 0:06:13.400 but this is just for the short term, until you know, 0:06:13.480 --> 0:06:17.120 to bridge this period until we can get UM into 0:06:17.240 --> 0:06:21.440 more renewable use. And I think that's a pretty good comparison. Um, 0:06:21.480 --> 0:06:25.680 it's the state that we're in rather than a specific 0:06:25.800 --> 0:06:29.120 time chunk of time that we that we could guess, 0:06:29.320 --> 0:06:32.240 that we could estimate. Yeah, I do want to switch 0:06:32.240 --> 0:06:34.840 gears a little bit because this number has been particularly 0:06:34.880 --> 0:06:39.040 concerning throughout this entire pandemic, and it's that unequal recovery, 0:06:39.400 --> 0:06:42.920 the idea that Black unemployment is seven point nine percent 0:06:43.120 --> 0:06:45.760 while the rest of the country is facing, you know, 0:06:45.800 --> 0:06:49.880 an average four point six percent unemployment rate for Hispanics, 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:53.800 it's five point nine percent, still little or no change 0:06:54.120 --> 0:06:57.960 over the month. So why is that? And what can 0:06:58.480 --> 0:07:02.640 be done to start make these numbers more even? M M. 0:07:02.880 --> 0:07:05.599 That's a really great question. And if you let me 0:07:05.640 --> 0:07:08.320 take up the rest of your show, I'll be about 0:07:08.360 --> 0:07:11.320 all the details, um, which is to say, this is 0:07:11.640 --> 0:07:14.400 is this complex but not complex? Right? And what we 0:07:14.480 --> 0:07:20.120 see across America is large firms like KPMG announcing initiatives 0:07:20.600 --> 0:07:26.040 to make sure that our recruiting is more diverse, right 0:07:26.120 --> 0:07:29.440 that that we are reaching out and having diverse slates 0:07:29.440 --> 0:07:32.800 of candidates to choose from, and then really being aware 0:07:33.240 --> 0:07:36.760 of biases that might cause us not to choose a 0:07:36.840 --> 0:07:41.480 more diverse slate of candidates. And and while you can 0:07:41.480 --> 0:07:43.600 skeptics and look at this and say, ah, well, you 0:07:43.680 --> 0:07:48.200 know that's not enough. If every firm does this, on balance, 0:07:48.240 --> 0:07:53.160 you're going to see gradual shifts. I would hope in 0:07:53.160 --> 0:07:56.760 in the outcome, that's that's the goal anyway. Um, and 0:07:56.880 --> 0:08:00.000 obviously you know we're we're hoping to make bold shifts. 0:08:00.040 --> 0:08:04.760 But but I think realistically, if you look economy wide, um, 0:08:04.800 --> 0:08:07.440 there isn't awareness that this is a problem. When we 0:08:07.520 --> 0:08:10.240 don't have people, an entire group of people in our 0:08:10.240 --> 0:08:13.560 economy fully employed, we are missing out on a lot 0:08:13.600 --> 0:08:17.160 of GDP, we are missing out on a lot of growth. 0:08:17.440 --> 0:08:19.200 I think you know, and and and it's great for 0:08:19.280 --> 0:08:22.080 KPMG as well, because I'm glad to bring this up 0:08:22.080 --> 0:08:25.160 to I don't know if you know Mindy Grossman, she's 0:08:25.160 --> 0:08:27.000 a good friend of mine if you don't got to 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:30.520 take you both out for drinks. Um. She tells a 0:08:30.640 --> 0:08:32.960 story she started out at Ralph Lauren and then she 0:08:33.000 --> 0:08:35.640 went to Nike and did some other stuff. Now I 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:38.880 think she runs weight watchers. She tells a story about 0:08:38.920 --> 0:08:42.600 being the only woman in the Nike boardroom with like 0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:46.679 twenty other guys, and they were asking the question, how 0:08:46.720 --> 0:08:50.319 can we sell more shoes to women? And the entire 0:08:50.400 --> 0:08:53.120 room looked at her, you know, and of course she said, 0:08:53.240 --> 0:08:55.960 maybe if you got a couple more of me, we 0:08:56.000 --> 0:08:59.800 could do that. Right, Because um, diversity, it's not just 0:09:00.160 --> 0:09:02.400 for the sake of diversity. It's not just to be 0:09:03.440 --> 0:09:08.680 a responsible civic um citizen. It's just you can also 0:09:08.720 --> 0:09:10.640 look at it as as a profit driver, as a 0:09:10.720 --> 0:09:13.960 revenue growth driver. It will help to build GDP, right 0:09:13.960 --> 0:09:16.079 because you can reach more people that way and get 0:09:16.120 --> 0:09:18.840 your product out there well. And if you have more 0:09:18.880 --> 0:09:24.240 people participating in the economy and fully participating in terms 0:09:24.280 --> 0:09:27.160 of their full potential in terms of education, you're going 0:09:27.200 --> 0:09:30.559 to have greater innovation, You're going to have greater wealth creation, 0:09:30.600 --> 0:09:33.800 you're gonna have greater productivity. I mean, it is absolutely 0:09:33.880 --> 0:09:39.920 ridiculous that we would systemically hold back people in our population. 0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:44.080 It just it makes no economic sense and it makes 0:09:44.080 --> 0:09:48.520 no moral sense. Quite frankly, Constants. Always great to get 0:09:48.520 --> 0:09:51.160 your take, and I really appreciate you joining us today. 0:09:51.240 --> 0:09:54.120 Constance Hunter there is the chief economist at KPMG. I'm 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:56.480 gonna I'm gonna hook you up with Mindy Grossman. Maybe 0:09:56.480 --> 0:09:59.880 I'll take shetionale. Why don't get drink, No, I will. 0:10:00.679 --> 0:10:03.480 I'll bring you guys all to the club or whatever, 0:10:03.640 --> 0:10:06.160 and then I'll and then i'll just uh set you 0:10:06.200 --> 0:10:09.360 free and I'll go do whatever. Um, thanks so much. 0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:11.480 Always great to get your take. Constant Hunter is the 0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:15.080 chief economist at KPMG talking to us about the job's number, 0:10:15.080 --> 0:10:20.480 adding five one thousand. UM. We had average hourly earnings 0:10:20.520 --> 0:10:25.120 growing four point nine percent year over year. Labor participation though, 0:10:25.480 --> 0:10:28.079 is the problem here. It's the sticking point. Sixty one 0:10:28.120 --> 0:10:31.400 point six percent was the actual number we wanted to see, 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:35.840 sixty one point seven percent. So no growth there. We're 0:10:35.840 --> 0:10:42.760 working on it. This is Bloomberg. Now, as he said, 0:10:42.800 --> 0:10:45.920 we're gonna get over to Peter Anderson right now from 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:49.959 Anderson Capital Management. UM. He is going to give us 0:10:49.960 --> 0:10:53.520 his outlook on markets. And first off, Pete, I want 0:10:53.520 --> 0:10:57.440 to get your take on the job's number looking pretty healthy, 0:10:57.559 --> 0:11:02.000 especially the wage growth number for nine not quite the 0:11:02.120 --> 0:11:07.400 level of inflation, but it's almost there. Well, good morning everybody, 0:11:07.440 --> 0:11:11.760 And yeah, that number was, in a word, fantastic. And um, 0:11:12.160 --> 0:11:15.400 I don't place too much emphasis on the monthly job 0:11:15.480 --> 0:11:18.640 numbers because I do think and recovery things are very messy, 0:11:19.240 --> 0:11:22.599 and you know, we don't hang our hats on successive 0:11:22.679 --> 0:11:26.520 data like that. But when you do get a fairly 0:11:27.040 --> 0:11:32.040 vague but improving picture of the economy in the labor market, 0:11:32.080 --> 0:11:34.240 I think it's all very positive. Let me let me 0:11:34.280 --> 0:11:37.560 ask you this. I get that you don't uh, you know, 0:11:37.679 --> 0:11:40.480 one data point a trend does not make or whatever. 0:11:40.520 --> 0:11:44.720 But we did get some pretty amazing news from Fiser. 0:11:45.000 --> 0:11:49.760 If their treatment can reduce hospitalizations and death by eight 0:11:50.080 --> 0:11:55.160 nine in high risk cases, is that not a game changer? 0:11:56.400 --> 0:11:59.640 I personally do think that I totally agree with you. 0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:03.360 I mean, this is a major announcement I would say, 0:12:03.720 --> 0:12:07.439 equal to or maybe even greater than the vaccines themselves. 0:12:07.480 --> 0:12:09.760 And the reason I say that is, you know, there's 0:12:09.760 --> 0:12:17.600 still uh contentions out there about anti vaxer's um mandatory vaccinations, 0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:20.040 that kind of thing. We're all going through that this country. 0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:23.160 But if you have a treatment for this, that kind 0:12:23.200 --> 0:12:28.240 of obviates that entire tension between different opinions about, you know, 0:12:28.280 --> 0:12:30.520 whether or not to be vaccinated, etcetera. So I do 0:12:30.640 --> 0:12:35.000 think it is probably the most major turning point in 0:12:35.080 --> 0:12:38.280 this whole messy situation we've been in for the past 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:40.120 year and a half. You know, there are some COVID 0:12:40.920 --> 0:12:43.400 you know, stock market darlings, if you will, like Peloton, 0:12:43.559 --> 0:12:47.040 when people were you know, staying at home and working out, 0:12:47.120 --> 0:12:49.320 and now the stock today is down, by the way, 0:12:49.320 --> 0:12:51.480 Paul Sweeney used to be on that thing every single 0:12:51.559 --> 0:12:54.960 day during lockdown and since that, since the last couple 0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:56.840 of months, has just been hanging his coat on it. Yes, 0:12:56.960 --> 0:12:59.000 I'm filling in. I've got to fill in for Paul Sweeney, 0:12:59.080 --> 0:13:02.040 and let's talk about this Peloton issue, because you know, 0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:04.640 it's the thing that we're seeing here with Peloton. Are 0:13:04.679 --> 0:13:08.000 there other companies exposed to this kind of issue where 0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:12.200 people used it during the COVID times and now they're 0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:16.880 walking away. Well, you know, I've always said market timing 0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:21.359 based on COVID news. Really it's like standing on a trapdoor. 0:13:21.520 --> 0:13:24.640 I mean, we just didn't know this development. I mean, 0:13:24.760 --> 0:13:29.120 as evidence even by today Viser's News. So I think 0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:32.600 it really is a foolish thing to try to time 0:13:32.640 --> 0:13:36.480 investments based solely on the way you think they will 0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:40.600 be UM attractive during a COVID lockdown. I think we're 0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:45.400 seeing that the first damaged stock, frankly for that thesis 0:13:45.920 --> 0:13:49.040 is Peloton. We're seeing that playing out right in front 0:13:49.040 --> 0:13:52.480 of us. It's so fascinating. What do you think about 0:13:52.520 --> 0:13:57.560 the economy UH more generally overseay the next year. I mean, 0:13:57.559 --> 0:14:00.560 the cops are going to get harder as we get 0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:04.400 into um Q four, Q one, Q two. On the 0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:06.840 other hand, so you've got to think the supply chain 0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:09.560 is going to ease a little bit and the labor 0:14:09.600 --> 0:14:14.040 crunch has to soften somewhat. Yeah, that's right, Matt. And 0:14:14.080 --> 0:14:16.160 you know a lot of people think I'm maybe a 0:14:16.200 --> 0:14:18.960 mindless optimist on this, but believe me, I spend a 0:14:19.000 --> 0:14:22.480 lot of time thinking and analyzing UH to formulate a 0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:26.280 hypothesis in our opinion, and I remained bullish. I mean 0:14:26.320 --> 0:14:30.440 I was bullish throughout this entire period a year and 0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:34.160 a half, and I continue to stay optimistic, and I 0:14:34.200 --> 0:14:36.400 do think maybe next year, you know, we will be 0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:39.680 wringing our hands a bit saying, maybe we've overshot our 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:43.840 estimates for earnings. But what a fantastic position to be in. 0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:47.080 If that's the case, then we would be truly I mean, 0:14:47.120 --> 0:14:49.920 I'm looking forward to worrying about that, because then we 0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:52.600 would be truly in the rear view mirror all this 0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:58.160 stuff about COVID vaccinations, COVID treatments, UH, supply chain issues, 0:14:58.640 --> 0:15:01.360 interest rates, all these things that we've been worrying about 0:15:01.640 --> 0:15:03.600 and frankly worrying about in the dark. I mean, this 0:15:03.680 --> 0:15:06.120 is a totally new period we've been through, right, We've 0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:08.600 never had a history like this, and so that's why 0:15:08.640 --> 0:15:11.600 I urge investors to take it a little bit in stride. 0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:15.400 You know, don't hang your um your opinions on the 0:15:15.440 --> 0:15:17.480 news of the day. You really do have to step 0:15:17.520 --> 0:15:22.160 back and try to appreciate the mosaic that's slowly evolving 0:15:22.640 --> 0:15:24.840 as we get out of this mess. So as we 0:15:24.920 --> 0:15:26.920 get out of this mess, we're again we're still at 0:15:26.920 --> 0:15:29.200 record highs in the stock market. We've been up every 0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:32.920 day this week. Not too messy if you're fully invested, right, yeah, 0:15:33.000 --> 0:15:37.360 so what do you buy now with valuations this high? Well, 0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:39.720 you know, and you earlier asked, let's just finish this 0:15:39.800 --> 0:15:42.320 other point about you know, are there other companies that 0:15:42.400 --> 0:15:45.760 might be in peril? I'll Peloton, and I do think 0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:49.040 there are. There are companies that anything that investors have 0:15:49.160 --> 0:15:52.040 invested in based on this is a hot topic for 0:15:52.280 --> 0:15:55.600 lockdowns I would stay away from. So I've never invested 0:15:55.840 --> 0:15:59.920 during that period market timing based on certain industries instead. 0:16:00.960 --> 0:16:05.040 For instance, Peloton I never thought was attractive even before 0:16:05.640 --> 0:16:10.600 the COVID came, and I didn't think always attractive during, 0:16:11.000 --> 0:16:14.120 nor do I think it is attractive after. But certain 0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:19.360 other industries, uh, escape that and are more attractive. Let 0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:22.800 me throw out some data security for instance. That's not 0:16:22.840 --> 0:16:26.800 going to be a COVID timing matter, data storage, cell 0:16:26.840 --> 0:16:31.960 phone towers, uh, anything that is less dependent on what 0:16:32.080 --> 0:16:36.720 I would call UM supply chain in more on intensity 0:16:37.000 --> 0:16:40.760 of say, software development is a pretty good place to 0:16:40.800 --> 0:16:43.520 be right now, and it probably will be the best 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:45.680 place to be even as we come out of this 0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:49.440 COVID mess. All right, That makes that makes sense. Um 0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:52.040 data security is something that we're gonna need, and healthcare 0:16:52.120 --> 0:16:55.360 is something I hear a lot about pete you know, 0:16:55.520 --> 0:17:00.760 from the tech side, from the UH read side, um 0:17:00.840 --> 0:17:04.600 um just a pure play investment in that. It seems 0:17:04.680 --> 0:17:06.840 like healthcare just still has a long way to go. 0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:11.280 It does as it always will, and I think COVID 0:17:11.320 --> 0:17:15.800 has placed a you know, macro emphasis on that industry. 0:17:15.800 --> 0:17:18.920 I will tell you another industry that I've been very 0:17:18.960 --> 0:17:22.720 successful investing is pet care. Pet care business, whether or 0:17:22.800 --> 0:17:27.240 not it be medications for pet care such as Zoetis 0:17:27.880 --> 0:17:33.280 or the health insurance for pets called Trupanion UH, the 0:17:33.359 --> 0:17:39.000 health care of animals is probably even more has more 0:17:39.000 --> 0:17:42.720 potential for increase, and I think frankly, it's simpler to analyze. 0:17:42.960 --> 0:17:44.960 You know, when you get into health care for humans, 0:17:45.440 --> 0:17:48.880 there is a whole specialization of that and you really 0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:51.480 do almost have to have a PhD in biochemistry to 0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:54.439 understand that. But when you look at pet care, you know, 0:17:54.520 --> 0:17:58.080 the humanization of pets is a trend that maybe was 0:17:58.200 --> 0:18:01.960 highlighted even more during r in COVID, but it's still here. 0:18:02.040 --> 0:18:04.880 It's here to stay. And as I said, when we 0:18:04.920 --> 0:18:07.199 look in the rear view mirror, that will be another 0:18:07.240 --> 0:18:10.160 industry that will be very, very attractive for sure. I mean, 0:18:10.800 --> 0:18:14.800 you know, I remember when I was reticent to get 0:18:14.800 --> 0:18:18.360 an m R I because of the costs, and yesterday 0:18:18.400 --> 0:18:23.920 I just m R I. My dog. He's okay, he's okay. 0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:25.840 I just want to make you make the point I 0:18:25.880 --> 0:18:28.679 wasn't as worried about me as I was worried about Steve, 0:18:28.800 --> 0:18:31.560 and Steve is gonna be okay. Pete, thanks so much 0:18:31.560 --> 0:18:33.720 for joining us. Great. Always great to get your intake. 0:18:33.760 --> 0:18:37.120 Really appreciate you joining us on this program. Peter Anderson 0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:42.760 is the founder of Anderson Capital Management. Now, one of 0:18:42.800 --> 0:18:46.480 the things that we have made almost a central part 0:18:46.520 --> 0:18:49.760 now of our data checks and business flashes, et cetera 0:18:50.119 --> 0:18:54.159 is um Crypto prices Bitcoin right now down three quarters 0:18:54.200 --> 0:18:58.840 of one percent to sixty thousand, nine hundred and eleven 0:18:58.880 --> 0:19:03.359 dollars apiece Ethereum down just over one percent right now 0:19:03.400 --> 0:19:06.720 to four thousand, four hundred and sixties seven dollars. I 0:19:06.720 --> 0:19:08.960 want to talk about cryptos with Scott Freeman. He is 0:19:09.000 --> 0:19:11.880 the co founder and partner at j ST Capital. Talk 0:19:11.920 --> 0:19:14.480 to me first about what JST does. Scott, where do 0:19:14.560 --> 0:19:17.359 you guys do a JST Capital? Hey, Matt, good to 0:19:17.359 --> 0:19:19.639 speak to you. Yeah, we are an institutional player in 0:19:19.680 --> 0:19:26.359 the crypto space. We do everything digital and service institutional investors, clients, exchanges, protocols. 0:19:26.400 --> 0:19:29.320 We've been in the business for well over four years, 0:19:29.359 --> 0:19:32.119 so that's a that's an eternity in UH in the 0:19:32.160 --> 0:19:35.639 crypto world. What do you think about the institutional adoption? 0:19:35.680 --> 0:19:38.639 What do you think about people making crypto part of 0:19:38.680 --> 0:19:41.760 their portfolios? How long until we get to a point 0:19:41.760 --> 0:19:46.040 where this becomes, uh, you know, as normal as holding 0:19:46.440 --> 0:19:50.280 I don't know any other commodity. Well, yeah, I think honestly, 0:19:50.320 --> 0:19:52.600 we're well on our way there already. We're from the 0:19:52.640 --> 0:19:54.800 retail side. It's very easy for people to get access 0:19:54.840 --> 0:19:57.159 to it these days, especially with the recent launch of 0:19:57.160 --> 0:19:58.960 the ETS and with the growth of the U S 0:19:59.000 --> 0:20:02.480 futures market. I think it's just it just continues to 0:20:02.560 --> 0:20:04.840 grow day by day, week by week, year by year. 0:20:05.240 --> 0:20:07.880 The e t F I think very interesting, but it's 0:20:07.960 --> 0:20:11.840 not as uh, it's not as powerful as having a 0:20:11.920 --> 0:20:15.120 product that's backed by the underlying that buys actual bitcoin. 0:20:15.200 --> 0:20:17.600 For example, we just get the futures and there's royal 0:20:17.720 --> 0:20:20.680 risk and another number of other things related to that. 0:20:20.680 --> 0:20:23.720 When when do we get a real product that um, 0:20:23.760 --> 0:20:26.040 you know, mom and pop investors can really sink their 0:20:26.040 --> 0:20:29.560 teeth into you know, Listen, that's a good point. I think, Yes, 0:20:29.720 --> 0:20:31.560 the future's et F is not as efficient as the 0:20:31.640 --> 0:20:34.879 cash based ETF, and we would expect maybe first second 0:20:34.920 --> 0:20:36.960 quarter next year, it's likely the s see we get 0:20:36.960 --> 0:20:41.119 more comfort with this is just an evolutionary process. The 0:20:41.160 --> 0:20:43.800 fact that the futures et F with gone tho smoothly. 0:20:43.880 --> 0:20:46.760 The world hasn't ended, um, And I think that's a 0:20:46.760 --> 0:20:49.440 good sign. More broadly, and we would expect to see 0:20:49.800 --> 0:20:52.320 more e t s next year. We'll expect to see 0:20:52.359 --> 0:20:56.200 a cash based goodcoin. We expect to see e t 0:20:56.400 --> 0:20:59.360 s as well next year. So one of the big problems, UM, 0:20:59.400 --> 0:21:04.880 with this in investment is the volatility. You know, yesterday, Um, 0:21:04.920 --> 0:21:07.439 the new mayor of New York, Eric Adams, asked to 0:21:07.520 --> 0:21:10.920 get his first few paychecks in bitcoin, and people immediately 0:21:10.960 --> 0:21:14.640 talked about the risk associated with that. It has come 0:21:14.720 --> 0:21:18.720 down though, Um, but is this kind of volatility, I mean, 0:21:18.880 --> 0:21:23.000 is it here for for years for decades? When does 0:21:23.040 --> 0:21:25.280 when does it? When does it get to a point 0:21:25.320 --> 0:21:29.520 where your average investor can stomach it? Yeah, listen, I 0:21:29.520 --> 0:21:32.280 think volatility at some levels all relative right, the bitcoin 0:21:32.440 --> 0:21:35.920 is a very bottle. Asset volatilities have come down over 0:21:36.000 --> 0:21:38.440 the past few months. But what we've seen in the 0:21:38.520 --> 0:21:40.679 past and what we do expect, there will be periods 0:21:40.680 --> 0:21:44.000 of extreme volatility in bitcoin and in crypto, and I 0:21:44.080 --> 0:21:46.600 think people should expect that. I think you don't go 0:21:46.720 --> 0:21:50.960 into these assets hoping for lower volatility. Of course not, 0:21:51.119 --> 0:21:55.239 but it's at this point it's too volatile for um 0:21:56.359 --> 0:22:01.159 for a risk averse investor to to get an involved um, 0:22:01.480 --> 0:22:05.800 you know, other than just throwing a small piece at 0:22:05.840 --> 0:22:08.800 it as a punt. You know, it's more of a 0:22:08.960 --> 0:22:12.240 gamble than an investment. And that's not the case for 0:22:12.760 --> 0:22:17.600 a lot of other asset classes, and it's a big problem. Yeah, 0:22:17.680 --> 0:22:20.320 I guess we would we would postulate a little bit 0:22:20.400 --> 0:22:22.919 differently on that. We would say, listen, if you're going 0:22:23.000 --> 0:22:25.680 to go into it, expect there will be volatility. You 0:22:25.760 --> 0:22:28.800 could be up or down on any day to day, 0:22:28.800 --> 0:22:31.600 a week to week. But for a long term investment, 0:22:31.720 --> 0:22:34.520 for you know, a small piece of your your portfolio, 0:22:35.000 --> 0:22:37.200 or even for you know, parents and grandparents who want 0:22:37.200 --> 0:22:39.879 to set up their their children for college, things like that, 0:22:40.440 --> 0:22:41.840 we don't think it's a bad idea to put a 0:22:41.920 --> 0:22:45.000 small portion of investment, and as a long term investment, 0:22:45.080 --> 0:22:48.280 we wouldn't encourage you to speculate around this. We think 0:22:48.480 --> 0:22:52.320 long term bitcoin of cryptos more broadly are a good 0:22:52.520 --> 0:22:55.280 a good place to have a small percentage of your portfolio. 0:22:55.320 --> 0:22:57.800 All right, if you step back and look really long term, 0:22:57.920 --> 0:23:04.000 then Scott um, don't governments have an interest in crushing 0:23:04.160 --> 0:23:07.600 these cryptos, you know, and especially as they come out 0:23:07.640 --> 0:23:12.440 with their own digital assets. Yeah, I think there will 0:23:12.520 --> 0:23:15.680 be regulatory or more clarity, a lot of regulatory side 0:23:15.720 --> 0:23:18.320 going forward. I think there's already been some progress in 0:23:18.400 --> 0:23:21.360 the US, especially around the stable coins UM. I think 0:23:21.440 --> 0:23:23.320 that will continue with evolve. I think for those of 0:23:23.400 --> 0:23:27.960