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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside

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Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring

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Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast

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Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Now, let's get over

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Speaker 1: to the chief economist at KPMG. Constance Hunter joins us

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Speaker 1: with her take on the jobs report and the economy. Um. Constance,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Always great to get

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Speaker 1: your take. I wonder if, first off, what you think

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Speaker 1: what you thought of the numbers? One thousand better than

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Speaker 1: the street was looking for, better than the whisper number

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Speaker 1: as well, and we had wages up, although not faster

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Speaker 1: than inflation as the presidents at earlier four point nine percent,

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Speaker 1: which is better than a stick in the eyes. My

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Speaker 1: stockbroker always tells me, yeah, well, I agree with you.

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Speaker 1: It's uh. It's a strong report and and it shows

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Speaker 1: broad based job scheme. So when we look at things

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Speaker 1: like the diffusion index, right, we see it at a

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Speaker 1: at a at a high UH, and it shows that

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Speaker 1: employers are adding workers. We also saw some things which

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Speaker 1: might seem counterintuitive at first. For example, we saw hourly

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Speaker 1: weekly hours work to go down slightly, and this has

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Speaker 1: been at an all time high after the pandemic because

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Speaker 1: workers are Employers are having difficulty finding workers, so they're

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Speaker 1: taking the workers they do have and adding more hours

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Speaker 1: onto them. And those are not necessarily hours that all

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Speaker 1: those workers want. So when we take it in total,

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Speaker 1: it's a very good sign. We have momentum. We have

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Speaker 1: manufacturing jobs coming back, especially in autos. We've leaves are

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Speaker 1: in hospitality jobs coming back. So overall, a great report,

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Speaker 1: and it suggests we're the speed bump from the delta

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Speaker 1: brea that we saw in the third quarters is passed

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Speaker 1: up constant for the time being. Forgive me, because I'm

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Speaker 1: a little bit of the perma bear here at Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: And this labor force participate patient rate, Yes it's stable,

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Speaker 1: but it's still not moving. So you know, how do

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Speaker 1: we get that number to start making some gains? And

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Speaker 1: I'll use a Muhammedalarians term here and say, you know

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Speaker 1: it was a disappointment. Yeah, Well, so what we saw

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Speaker 1: and what I looked at was the also the female

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Speaker 1: labor force participation, which went up two tenths of a

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Speaker 1: percentage point. But we have a considerable sticking point here,

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Speaker 1: and this is that we still have temper cent fewer

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Speaker 1: childcare workers than prior to the pandemic. UM and this

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Speaker 1: creates knock on effects, right because if you can't find childcare,

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Speaker 1: you're you yourself then may not be in the labor

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Speaker 1: force because you have to be home taking care of children.

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Speaker 1: Between six to eight percent of the labor force has

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Speaker 1: children under the age of six UM and so so

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Speaker 1: this creates knock on problems. And the question is when

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Speaker 1: do those childcare workers go back or do they go

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Speaker 1: back if they start to look for other jobs. Will

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Speaker 1: will they not fully go back until children under the

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Speaker 1: age of six are vaccinated? Will they not fully go

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Speaker 1: back until we have you know, really UM, widespread remediation

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Speaker 1: if you if you catch COVID for example, like this

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Speaker 1: fisor product that was announced this morning. UM. And I

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Speaker 1: think what we're seeing is that this pandemic in the

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Speaker 1: rear view mirror is something we keep expecting to happen

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Speaker 1: in the next month and the next quarter, and the

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Speaker 1: virus keeps coming back and it is it is where

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Speaker 1: we see these sort of persistent problems in labor force

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Speaker 1: participation and in the ability of the economy to completely recover.

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Speaker 1: I'm not just here, but but globally constance. Today is

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Speaker 1: my birthday. I know how thank you I'm getting older.

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Speaker 1: I'm getting old. I'm I'm four twelve year old. That's

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Speaker 1: also cooler. Thank you. It makes me think about the

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Speaker 1: older people as well. UM plus in labor participation is

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Speaker 1: not climbing back to the pre pandemic levels. I think

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Speaker 1: part of that is and I know a lot of

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Speaker 1: people who have been able to retire a little earlier

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Speaker 1: and they thought they would, um, they didn't feel like

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Speaker 1: dealing and therefore, oh one case did really well? Are

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Speaker 1: we is that part of what we're seeing a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a structural change. So there was a great

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Speaker 1: paper presentative Jackson Hole this year that addresses sort of

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Speaker 1: this issue of retirement and participation and what happens during

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Speaker 1: recessions and then what happens during recoveries and expansions, and

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Speaker 1: so the longer the expansion, the more likely it is

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Speaker 1: some of those people who are retired or did retire

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Speaker 1: temporarily come back to the labor force. UM and and

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Speaker 1: that depends on the on the length of the expansion

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Speaker 1: and the variety of UH opportunities available, as well as

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Speaker 1: people's personal circumstances. So we think that eventually that participation

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Speaker 1: rate does start to return. But you bring up a

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Speaker 1: good point. The probability of people over the age of

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Speaker 1: fifty five returning is lower than the possibility of prime

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Speaker 1: age workers who say they're retired returning, and and it

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Speaker 1: does bring us to this sort of long term UH

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Speaker 1: so called deficit of consumption, which is one of the

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Speaker 1: reasons why we've had the disinflation and deflation of the

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Speaker 1: last several decades, and one of the reasons that people

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Speaker 1: think the inflation is transitory. I'm going to use the

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Speaker 1: T word transitory is state dependent, not time dependent. So

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Speaker 1: the state that the transitory inflation is dependent upon is COVID.

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Speaker 1: The problem is that state COVID is lasting much longer

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Speaker 1: than people anticipated. So I also want to switch gears

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Speaker 1: here a little bit and talk about that's a great point,

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Speaker 1: though let's I mean, I just want to linger on

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Speaker 1: that for a second, because I haven't heard that, and

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Speaker 1: that makes a lot of sense. Being transitory is state

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Speaker 1: dependent and not time dependent. It reminds me a little

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Speaker 1: bit of you know, I was um having a discussion

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Speaker 1: with Anna Edwards this morning about our fossil fuel use

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Speaker 1: and she said, yes, the President wants OPEC to pump more,

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Speaker 1: but this is just for the short term, until you know,

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Speaker 1: to bridge this period until we can get UM into

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Speaker 1: more renewable use. And I think that's a pretty good comparison. Um,

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Speaker 1: it's the state that we're in rather than a specific

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Speaker 1: time chunk of time that we that we could guess,

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Speaker 1: that we could estimate. Yeah, I do want to switch

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Speaker 1: gears a little bit because this number has been particularly

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Speaker 1: concerning throughout this entire pandemic, and it's that unequal recovery,

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Speaker 1: the idea that Black unemployment is seven point nine percent

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Speaker 1: while the rest of the country is facing, you know,

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Speaker 1: an average four point six percent unemployment rate for Hispanics,

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Speaker 1: it's five point nine percent, still little or no change

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Speaker 1: over the month. So why is that? And what can

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Speaker 1: be done to start make these numbers more even? M M.

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Speaker 1: That's a really great question. And if you let me

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Speaker 1: take up the rest of your show, I'll be about

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Speaker 1: all the details, um, which is to say, this is

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Speaker 1: is this complex but not complex? Right? And what we

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Speaker 1: see across America is large firms like KPMG announcing initiatives

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Speaker 1: to make sure that our recruiting is more diverse, right

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Speaker 1: that that we are reaching out and having diverse slates

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Speaker 1: of candidates to choose from, and then really being aware

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Speaker 1: of biases that might cause us not to choose a

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Speaker 1: more diverse slate of candidates. And and while you can

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Speaker 1: skeptics and look at this and say, ah, well, you

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Speaker 1: know that's not enough. If every firm does this, on balance,

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Speaker 1: you're going to see gradual shifts. I would hope in

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Speaker 1: in the outcome, that's that's the goal anyway. Um, and

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Speaker 1: obviously you know we're we're hoping to make bold shifts.

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Speaker 1: But but I think realistically, if you look economy wide, um,

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Speaker 1: there isn't awareness that this is a problem. When we

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Speaker 1: don't have people, an entire group of people in our

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Speaker 1: economy fully employed, we are missing out on a lot

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Speaker 1: of GDP, we are missing out on a lot of growth.

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Speaker 1: I think you know, and and and it's great for

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Speaker 1: KPMG as well, because I'm glad to bring this up

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Speaker 1: to I don't know if you know Mindy Grossman, she's

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Speaker 1: a good friend of mine if you don't got to

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Speaker 1: take you both out for drinks. Um. She tells a

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Speaker 1: story she started out at Ralph Lauren and then she

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Speaker 1: went to Nike and did some other stuff. Now I

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Speaker 1: think she runs weight watchers. She tells a story about

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Speaker 1: being the only woman in the Nike boardroom with like

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Speaker 1: twenty other guys, and they were asking the question, how

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Speaker 1: can we sell more shoes to women? And the entire

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Speaker 1: room looked at her, you know, and of course she said,

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Speaker 1: maybe if you got a couple more of me, we

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Speaker 1: could do that. Right, Because um, diversity, it's not just

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Speaker 1: for the sake of diversity. It's not just to be

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Speaker 1: a responsible civic um citizen. It's just you can also

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Speaker 1: look at it as as a profit driver, as a

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Speaker 1: revenue growth driver. It will help to build GDP, right

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Speaker 1: because you can reach more people that way and get

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Speaker 1: your product out there well. And if you have more

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Speaker 1: people participating in the economy and fully participating in terms

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Speaker 1: of their full potential in terms of education, you're going

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Speaker 1: to have greater innovation, You're going to have greater wealth creation,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna have greater productivity. I mean, it is absolutely

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Speaker 1: ridiculous that we would systemically hold back people in our population.

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Speaker 1: It just it makes no economic sense and it makes

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Speaker 1: no moral sense. Quite frankly, Constants. Always great to get

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Speaker 1: your take, and I really appreciate you joining us today.

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Speaker 1: Constance Hunter there is the chief economist at KPMG. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna hook you up with Mindy Grossman. Maybe

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Speaker 1: I'll take shetionale. Why don't get drink, No, I will.

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Speaker 1: I'll bring you guys all to the club or whatever,

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Speaker 1: and then I'll and then i'll just uh set you

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Speaker 1: free and I'll go do whatever. Um, thanks so much.

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Speaker 1: Always great to get your take. Constant Hunter is the

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Speaker 1: chief economist at KPMG talking to us about the job's number,

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Speaker 1: adding five one thousand. UM. We had average hourly earnings

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Speaker 1: growing four point nine percent year over year. Labor participation though,

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Speaker 1: is the problem here. It's the sticking point. Sixty one

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Speaker 1: point six percent was the actual number we wanted to see,

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Speaker 1: sixty one point seven percent. So no growth there. We're

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Speaker 1: working on it. This is Bloomberg. Now, as he said,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna get over to Peter Anderson right now from

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Speaker 1: Anderson Capital Management. UM. He is going to give us

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Speaker 1: his outlook on markets. And first off, Pete, I want

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Speaker 1: to get your take on the job's number looking pretty healthy,

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Speaker 1: especially the wage growth number for nine not quite the

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Speaker 1: level of inflation, but it's almost there. Well, good morning everybody,

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Speaker 1: And yeah, that number was, in a word, fantastic. And um,

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Speaker 1: I don't place too much emphasis on the monthly job

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Speaker 1: numbers because I do think and recovery things are very messy,

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Speaker 1: and you know, we don't hang our hats on successive

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Speaker 1: data like that. But when you do get a fairly

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Speaker 1: vague but improving picture of the economy in the labor market,

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Speaker 1: I think it's all very positive. Let me let me

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Speaker 1: ask you this. I get that you don't uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: one data point a trend does not make or whatever.

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Speaker 1: But we did get some pretty amazing news from Fiser.

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Speaker 1: If their treatment can reduce hospitalizations and death by eight

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Speaker 1: nine in high risk cases, is that not a game changer?

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Speaker 1: I personally do think that I totally agree with you.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is a major announcement I would say,

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Speaker 1: equal to or maybe even greater than the vaccines themselves.

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Speaker 1: And the reason I say that is, you know, there's

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Speaker 1: still uh contentions out there about anti vaxer's um mandatory vaccinations,

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Speaker 1: that kind of thing. We're all going through that this country.

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Speaker 1: But if you have a treatment for this, that kind

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Speaker 1: of obviates that entire tension between different opinions about, you know,

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Speaker 1: whether or not to be vaccinated, etcetera. So I do

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Speaker 1: think it is probably the most major turning point in

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Speaker 1: this whole messy situation we've been in for the past

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Speaker 1: year and a half. You know, there are some COVID

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Speaker 1: you know, stock market darlings, if you will, like Peloton,

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Speaker 1: when people were you know, staying at home and working out,

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Speaker 1: and now the stock today is down, by the way,

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Speaker 1: Paul Sweeney used to be on that thing every single

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Speaker 1: day during lockdown and since that, since the last couple

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Speaker 1: of months, has just been hanging his coat on it. Yes,

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Speaker 1: I'm filling in. I've got to fill in for Paul Sweeney,

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Speaker 1: and let's talk about this Peloton issue, because you know,

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Speaker 1: it's the thing that we're seeing here with Peloton. Are

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Speaker 1: there other companies exposed to this kind of issue where

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Speaker 1: people used it during the COVID times and now they're

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Speaker 1: walking away. Well, you know, I've always said market timing

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Speaker 1: based on COVID news. Really it's like standing on a trapdoor.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we just didn't know this development. I mean,

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Speaker 1: as evidence even by today Viser's News. So I think

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Speaker 1: it really is a foolish thing to try to time

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Speaker 1: investments based solely on the way you think they will

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Speaker 1: be UM attractive during a COVID lockdown. I think we're

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Speaker 1: seeing that the first damaged stock, frankly for that thesis

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Speaker 1: is Peloton. We're seeing that playing out right in front

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Speaker 1: of us. It's so fascinating. What do you think about

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Speaker 1: the economy UH more generally overseay the next year. I mean,

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Speaker 1: the cops are going to get harder as we get

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Speaker 1: into um Q four, Q one, Q two. On the

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Speaker 1: other hand, so you've got to think the supply chain

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Speaker 1: is going to ease a little bit and the labor

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Speaker 1: crunch has to soften somewhat. Yeah, that's right, Matt. And

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Speaker 1: you know a lot of people think I'm maybe a

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Speaker 1: mindless optimist on this, but believe me, I spend a

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Speaker 1: lot of time thinking and analyzing UH to formulate a

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Speaker 1: hypothesis in our opinion, and I remained bullish. I mean

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Speaker 1: I was bullish throughout this entire period a year and

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Speaker 1: a half, and I continue to stay optimistic, and I

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Speaker 1: do think maybe next year, you know, we will be

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Speaker 1: wringing our hands a bit saying, maybe we've overshot our

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Speaker 1: estimates for earnings. But what a fantastic position to be in.

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Speaker 1: If that's the case, then we would be truly I mean,

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Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to worrying about that, because then we

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Speaker 1: would be truly in the rear view mirror all this

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Speaker 1: stuff about COVID vaccinations, COVID treatments, UH, supply chain issues,

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Speaker 1: interest rates, all these things that we've been worrying about

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Speaker 1: and frankly worrying about in the dark. I mean, this

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Speaker 1: is a totally new period we've been through, right, We've

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Speaker 1: never had a history like this, and so that's why

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Speaker 1: I urge investors to take it a little bit in stride.

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Speaker 1: You know, don't hang your um your opinions on the

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Speaker 1: news of the day. You really do have to step

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Speaker 1: back and try to appreciate the mosaic that's slowly evolving

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Speaker 1: as we get out of this mess. So as we

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Speaker 1: get out of this mess, we're again we're still at

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Speaker 1: record highs in the stock market. We've been up every

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Speaker 1: day this week. Not too messy if you're fully invested, right, yeah,

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Speaker 1: so what do you buy now with valuations this high? Well,

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Speaker 1: you know, and you earlier asked, let's just finish this

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Speaker 1: other point about you know, are there other companies that

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Speaker 1: might be in peril? I'll Peloton, and I do think

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Speaker 1: there are. There are companies that anything that investors have

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Speaker 1: invested in based on this is a hot topic for

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Speaker 1: lockdowns I would stay away from. So I've never invested

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Speaker 1: during that period market timing based on certain industries instead.

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Speaker 1: For instance, Peloton I never thought was attractive even before

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Speaker 1: the COVID came, and I didn't think always attractive during,

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Speaker 1: nor do I think it is attractive after. But certain

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Speaker 1: other industries, uh, escape that and are more attractive. Let

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Speaker 1: me throw out some data security for instance. That's not

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Speaker 1: going to be a COVID timing matter, data storage, cell

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Speaker 1: phone towers, uh, anything that is less dependent on what

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Speaker 1: I would call UM supply chain in more on intensity

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Speaker 1: of say, software development is a pretty good place to

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Speaker 1: be right now, and it probably will be the best

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Speaker 1: place to be even as we come out of this

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Speaker 1: COVID mess. All right, That makes that makes sense. Um

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Speaker 1: data security is something that we're gonna need, and healthcare

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Speaker 1: is something I hear a lot about pete you know,

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Speaker 1: from the tech side, from the UH read side, um

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Speaker 1: um just a pure play investment in that. It seems

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Speaker 1: like healthcare just still has a long way to go.

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Speaker 1: It does as it always will, and I think COVID

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Speaker 1: has placed a you know, macro emphasis on that industry.

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Speaker 1: I will tell you another industry that I've been very

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Speaker 1: successful investing is pet care. Pet care business, whether or

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Speaker 1: not it be medications for pet care such as Zoetis

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Speaker 1: or the health insurance for pets called Trupanion UH, the

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Speaker 1: health care of animals is probably even more has more

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Speaker 1: potential for increase, and I think frankly, it's simpler to analyze.

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Speaker 1: You know, when you get into health care for humans,

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Speaker 1: there is a whole specialization of that and you really

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Speaker 1: do almost have to have a PhD in biochemistry to

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Speaker 1: understand that. But when you look at pet care, you know,

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Speaker 1: the humanization of pets is a trend that maybe was

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Speaker 1: highlighted even more during r in COVID, but it's still here.

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Speaker 1: It's here to stay. And as I said, when we

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Speaker 1: look in the rear view mirror, that will be another

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Speaker 1: industry that will be very, very attractive for sure. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, I remember when I was reticent to get

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Speaker 1: an m R I because of the costs, and yesterday

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Speaker 1: I just m R I. My dog. He's okay, he's okay.

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Speaker 1: I just want to make you make the point I

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Speaker 1: wasn't as worried about me as I was worried about Steve,

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Speaker 1: and Steve is gonna be okay. Pete, thanks so much

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Speaker 1: for joining us. Great. Always great to get your intake.

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Speaker 1: Really appreciate you joining us on this program. Peter Anderson

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Speaker 1: is the founder of Anderson Capital Management. Now, one of

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Speaker 1: the things that we have made almost a central part

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Speaker 1: now of our data checks and business flashes, et cetera

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Speaker 1: is um Crypto prices Bitcoin right now down three quarters

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Speaker 1: of one percent to sixty thousand, nine hundred and eleven

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Speaker 1: dollars apiece Ethereum down just over one percent right now

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Speaker 1: to four thousand, four hundred and sixties seven dollars. I

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Speaker 1: want to talk about cryptos with Scott Freeman. He is

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Speaker 1: the co founder and partner at j ST Capital. Talk

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Speaker 1: to me first about what JST does. Scott, where do

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Speaker 1: you guys do a JST Capital? Hey, Matt, good to

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Speaker 1: speak to you. Yeah, we are an institutional player in

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Speaker 1: the crypto space. We do everything digital and service institutional investors, clients, exchanges, protocols.

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Speaker 1: We've been in the business for well over four years,

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Speaker 1: so that's a that's an eternity in UH in the

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Speaker 1: crypto world. What do you think about the institutional adoption?

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Speaker 1: What do you think about people making crypto part of

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Speaker 1: their portfolios? How long until we get to a point

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Speaker 1: where this becomes, uh, you know, as normal as holding

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Speaker 1: I don't know any other commodity. Well, yeah, I think honestly,

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Speaker 1: we're well on our way there already. We're from the

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Speaker 1: retail side. It's very easy for people to get access

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Speaker 1: to it these days, especially with the recent launch of

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Speaker 1: the ETS and with the growth of the U S

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Speaker 1: futures market. I think it's just it just continues to

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Speaker 1: grow day by day, week by week, year by year.

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Speaker 1: The e t F I think very interesting, but it's

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Speaker 1: not as uh, it's not as powerful as having a

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Speaker 1: product that's backed by the underlying that buys actual bitcoin.

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Speaker 1: For example, we just get the futures and there's royal

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Speaker 1: risk and another number of other things related to that.

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Speaker 1: When when do we get a real product that um,

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Speaker 1: you know, mom and pop investors can really sink their

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Speaker 1: teeth into you know, Listen, that's a good point. I think, Yes,

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Speaker 1: the future's et F is not as efficient as the

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Speaker 1: cash based ETF, and we would expect maybe first second

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Speaker 1: quarter next year, it's likely the s see we get

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Speaker 1: more comfort with this is just an evolutionary process. The

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Speaker 1: fact that the futures et F with gone tho smoothly.

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Speaker 1: The world hasn't ended, um, And I think that's a

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Speaker 1: good sign. More broadly, and we would expect to see

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Speaker 1: more e t s next year. We'll expect to see

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Speaker 1: a cash based goodcoin. We expect to see e t

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Speaker 1: s as well next year. So one of the big problems, UM,

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Speaker 1: with this in investment is the volatility. You know, yesterday, Um,

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Speaker 1: the new mayor of New York, Eric Adams, asked to

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Speaker 1: get his first few paychecks in bitcoin, and people immediately

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Speaker 1: talked about the risk associated with that. It has come

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Speaker 1: down though, Um, but is this kind of volatility, I mean,

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Speaker 1: is it here for for years for decades? When does

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Speaker 1: when does it? When does it get to a point

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Speaker 1: where your average investor can stomach it? Yeah, listen, I

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Speaker 1: think volatility at some levels all relative right, the bitcoin

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Speaker 1: is a very bottle. Asset volatilities have come down over

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Speaker 1: the past few months. But what we've seen in the

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Speaker 1: past and what we do expect, there will be periods

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Speaker 1: of extreme volatility in bitcoin and in crypto, and I

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Speaker 1: think people should expect that. I think you don't go

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Speaker 1: into these assets hoping for lower volatility. Of course not,

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Speaker 1: but it's at this point it's too volatile for um

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Speaker 1: for a risk averse investor to to get an involved um,

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Speaker 1: you know, other than just throwing a small piece at

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Speaker 1: it as a punt. You know, it's more of a

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Speaker 1: gamble than an investment. And that's not the case for

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Speaker 1: a lot of other asset classes, and it's a big problem. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I guess we would we would postulate a little bit

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Speaker 1: differently on that. We would say, listen, if you're going

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Speaker 1: to go into it, expect there will be volatility. You

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Speaker 1: could be up or down on any day to day,

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Speaker 1: a week to week. But for a long term investment,

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Speaker 1: for you know, a small piece of your your portfolio,

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Speaker 1: or even for you know, parents and grandparents who want

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Speaker 1: to set up their their children for college, things like that,

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Speaker 1: we don't think it's a bad idea to put a

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Speaker 1: small portion of investment, and as a long term investment,

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Speaker 1: we wouldn't encourage you to speculate around this. We think

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Speaker 1: long term bitcoin of cryptos more broadly are a good

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Speaker 1: a good place to have a small percentage of your portfolio.

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Speaker 1: All right, if you step back and look really long term,

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Speaker 1: then Scott um, don't governments have an interest in crushing

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Speaker 1: these cryptos, you know, and especially as they come out

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Speaker 1: with their own digital assets. Yeah, I think there will

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Speaker 1: be regulatory or more clarity, a lot of regulatory side

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Speaker 1: going forward. I think there's already been some progress in

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Speaker 1: the US, especially around the stable coins UM. I think

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Speaker 1: that will continue with evolve. I think for those of

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Speaker 1: us in the industry were big proponents of greater regulatory clarity.

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Speaker 1: We think lack of regulatory clarity has been UM has

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Speaker 1: been an issue. We think going forward that will help.

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Speaker 1: We obviously we hope that they're they're disciplined about how

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Speaker 1: they impose regulation. We hope it's still allows people to

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Speaker 1: maintain some of the exciting and new things that we

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Speaker 1: think or bring a lot of innovation to the space.

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Speaker 1: Beyond stable coins, do you think there will be any

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Speaker 1: cryptos that we can use on a daily basis like cash.

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Speaker 1: You know, I spent a couple of weeks back in

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Speaker 1: two thousands a team living on bitcoin and not using dollars,

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Speaker 1: which was fun, But you can't really live that way

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Speaker 1: on a regular basis, especially now as transaction times get

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Speaker 1: so long and um, it's expensive to transact with bitcoin.

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Speaker 1: Is there anything that you think people are going to

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Speaker 1: be using to transact? You know, I think the more

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Speaker 1: likely scenario that people will be doing things on the

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Speaker 1: blockchain without even knowing it. Like people are already building

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Speaker 1: apps today, whether their web browsers or apps on your phone,

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Speaker 1: that allow you to earn incremental revenue for just day

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Speaker 1: to day activity and people don't necessarily need to know

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Speaker 1: that bitcoin or crypto is behind it. But I think

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Speaker 1: they'll be able to extract value from day to day

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Speaker 1: activities where they can't do that today. And I think

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Speaker 1: that's when you start really saying the power of a

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Speaker 1: blockchain and crypto a big future and defy absolutely. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: We're we're big believers in space. We're allocating more and

428
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 1: more people on capital to the space, and we think

429
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 1: we're not even in the first inning. It an ether,

430
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 1: all right, Scott, to get your thoughts thanks so much

431
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 1: for joining us. Scott Freeman there co founder and partner

432
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 1: at j ST Capital and institutional player in the crypto space.

433
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 1: And you know we're covering this more and more. Obviously

434
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:16,239
Speaker 1: I have been interested in it for a decade, but UM,

435
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 1: I think everyone is starting to look at quotes on bitcoin,

436
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 1: quotes on ethereum. You can get it on the terminal

437
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:25,880
Speaker 1: see our yp go is where you can see our

438
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 1: screen of crypto or cryptocurrency monitor and you know, more

439
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:33,440
Speaker 1: and more UM you're getting e t F s. It

440
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 1: started in Canada. Now we have the future z E

441
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 1: t F here in the US. And as regulation increases,

442
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 1: the question is are we're gonna see UM more of

443
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:46,720
Speaker 1: these products that UM retail investors can get into that

444
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 1: institutional investors are going to adopt and accept. And it

445
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:55,440
Speaker 1: seems like the answer is yes, at least thus far,

446
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:59,480
Speaker 1: and will continue to cover it for you. This is Bloomberg.

447
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:07,399
Speaker 1: Let's get over now to the founder and CEO of

448
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 1: a hiring firm that always gives us such incredible insight

449
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 1: around UM. These data points we've got, of course, the

450
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:16,320
Speaker 1: non farm payrolls number. It was an addition of five

451
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,399
Speaker 1: thirty one, which was better than anticipated, even better than

452
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:22,040
Speaker 1: the whisper number, and we got um wages up four

453
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:26,399
Speaker 1: point nine, almost as much as inflation. So that's pretty

454
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:30,200
Speaker 1: good news. Tom Gimbal joins us out of Chicago. Tom,

455
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:34,200
Speaker 1: let me get your take first off on the participation rate,

456
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:37,879
Speaker 1: because this is the big problem. Everything else looks great,

457
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 1: but for some reason we can't get this all important

458
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 1: participation rate number. To Budge, it's at sixty one point six.

459
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:46,719
Speaker 1: We were hoping to get it up to sixty one

460
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 1: point seven. What is keeping people out of the labor force.

461
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 1: My belief on that is we still have the kids

462
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:57,719
Speaker 1: problem with UH, not the you know, now it's changed

463
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 1: with the approval from UH the abillity to get the

464
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 1: kids the vaccines, but with kids in school not having

465
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 1: the vaccine, you still have parents that were on the

466
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 1: sidelines making sure they could be home with their kids

467
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:12,639
Speaker 1: if something happened with COVID in the classroom or their

468
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:14,920
Speaker 1: kids got COVID to make sure they were there. As

469
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:18,680
Speaker 1: COVID goes down, participation rate will increase. It's very confusing,

470
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 1: right because on one hand, you're we're talking about kids

471
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 1: in schools, but education was also the big laggard in

472
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 1: terms of hiring here. What was going on? Well, I

473
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:34,399
Speaker 1: think education is is always interesting when you have the

474
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 1: schools and the classrooms, you've got people that have moved

475
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:42,159
Speaker 1: into different areas, and and teacher hiring will go in

476
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:44,679
Speaker 1: when there's when there's a baby boom so to speak,

477
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:47,920
Speaker 1: that that we don't need excess hiring in that area

478
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 1: right now. And there's been uh, for lack of a

479
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,159
Speaker 1: better word, of glutt of teachers on the market for

480
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,160
Speaker 1: for a decade or so in that capacity, and it's

481
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:58,640
Speaker 1: it's not going to be a big change there. Where

482
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:00,920
Speaker 1: we really want to see the change is in travel,

483
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 1: in hospitality and the service sectors. And that means that

484
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 1: the world is getting back to normal. And when you

485
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 1: see a job's number like five one thousand jobs uh

486
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 1: last month, you got to look at it and say,

487
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 1: this thing is working. And political affiliation aside. This is

488
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 1: without an infrastructure bill getting passed. This is based on

489
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:24,680
Speaker 1: the decline of COVID, This is on the vaccines. People

490
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 1: are getting back to work, companies are continuing to hire,

491
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 1: record profits, stock market, we are in a really good

492
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:33,879
Speaker 1: situation coming out of the pandemic. Well absolutely, and then

493
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 1: we get this blockbuster news from Fiser. They have a

494
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 1: pill that they claim, at least in clinical trials, UM

495
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 1: reduces hospitalizations and deaths in high risk patients eight nine. Now,

496
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 1: if that's the case, Tom, is that not a game

497
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:55,680
Speaker 1: changer for the U. S. Economy? Oh, it's it's like

498
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 1: getting cholesterol medicine, you know, fifty years ago. I mean,

499
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 1: this thing is legit. And when you get that in

500
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 1: clinical studies that it's that big for people who have disease,

501
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 1: older people, You've got a real fight here to do that.

502
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 1: Now that the challenges if that is what people gravitate towards,

503
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 1: and it doesn't allow people to keep getting the vaccine

504
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 1: because they go out, I'll just take the pill and

505
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 1: it doesn't have the same effects. I think the next

506
00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 1: thing is going to have to be for the CDC

507
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 1: to roll out how the pill works in conjunction with

508
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 1: the vaccine, with the booster shots and where things are moving.

509
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:32,600
Speaker 1: But with more and more companies coming forward and being

510
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 1: a vaccine only environment, you're seeing the last uh, the

511
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 1: last straw to fall, so to speak, that people are

512
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 1: going to get the vaccine so they're not missing out

513
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 1: on opportunity. I'm kind of curious about this tension between

514
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 1: vaccine mandates and workers. You know, in this Goldman study

515
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 1: that President Biden, Marty Walsh has all pointed out. A

516
00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 1: point that Goldman makes is that point six percent of

517
00:29:56,600 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 1: healthcare worker has left their jobs following employer vaccine man dates. Now,

518
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 1: that's not a terribly big amount, but it is still

519
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 1: an amount. So how do you see this tension starting

520
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 1: to continue to play out? Well, I think there's tensions

521
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 1: across the board, and I think it's it's interesting. Right,

522
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 1: We've also got a situation in the labor market where

523
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 1: the administration is saying we're going to give bigger tax

524
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 1: breaks to union organizations for electric vehicles the non union organizations,

525
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 1: and I think that's what happens. We have a Secretary

526
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,239
Speaker 1: of Labor who is so union friendly and that's how

527
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 1: they got got elected to be political office in Massachusetts,

528
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 1: and that's where the legislation is going. So I think

529
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 1: we actually have an intersection of where the rubber is

530
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 1: going to meet the road right now, with the election

531
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 1: of the Republican governor in Virginia followed by the strong

532
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 1: jobs numbers, is going to say people want moderation, they

533
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 1: want respect in the in the community. If people leave

534
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 1: the healthcare field, they didn't leave because they love the

535
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 1: job and they were upset about it. They left because

536
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 1: they don't love the job. And then there was the mandate. Right,

537
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 1: people don't quit abs they love because they don't want to.

538
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 1: They feel their civil rights you're being taken away. People

539
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 1: quit jobs they hate and they use that as an excuse. Yeah,

540
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 1: it's it's it's a it's a pretty good um, it's

541
00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 1: a pretty good theory. I think I'm gonna go with that.

542
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 1: There was just there was a statistic. There was a

543
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 1: statistic about the year and a half ago and no,

544
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 1: two years ago, before COVID, and it said sixty percent

545
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 1: of the workforce is disengaged. Okay, that was before COVID,

546
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 1: before remote work, before everything else. Oh, now, all of

547
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 1: a sudden, you can work from home to three, four

548
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 1: or five days a week. Now you're engaged more. I

549
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 1: don't think so. Now you like the fact that you

550
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:40,000
Speaker 1: don't have to commute more, You're not more engaged in

551
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 1: the job. And that's the problem is we still have

552
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 1: people doing jobs out of necessity, which is what they're

553
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:49,200
Speaker 1: passionate about. And those are bigger, deeper, societal is amen.

554
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 1: Brother Tom great. Always great to get your take. Thanks

555
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:54,080
Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Thanks for listening to the

556
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews

557
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 1: with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm

558
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 1: Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller N seventy

559
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 1: three and on Fall Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.

560
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at

561
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio