WEBVTT - JPMorgan Earnings, Obama Endorses Biden 0:00:00.440 --> 0:00:02.960 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:03.040 --> 0:00:05.520 Jason Kelly. We're here every day bringing you the latest 0:00:05.519 --> 0:00:09.800 news from the world of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.480 all harnessing the power of Bloomberg Business Week reporters and editors, 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:16.639 not to mention our hundred journalists and analysts more than 0:00:16.680 --> 0:00:19.280 a hundred and twenty countries. You can download Bloomberg Business 0:00:19.320 --> 0:00:22.159 Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. You can 0:00:22.200 --> 0:00:24.520 also listen to our radio show weekdays at two pm 0:00:24.520 --> 0:00:27.920 Eastern only on Bloomberg Radio. Well. As we said at 0:00:27.920 --> 0:00:30.440 the top of the show, Jamie Diamond, he is a 0:00:30.560 --> 0:00:34.880 voice everyone listens to. JP Morgan earnings out today. Jamie 0:00:34.920 --> 0:00:39.760 Diamond back UH from very serious surgery, but he is 0:00:39.840 --> 0:00:42.760 back in the seed. He is as lively as ever. 0:00:42.960 --> 0:00:44.800 Let's check out a little bit of what he had 0:00:44.840 --> 0:00:49.440 to say. The bad economy has very adverse consequences way 0:00:49.479 --> 0:00:52.479 beyond just the economy, you know, and in terms of 0:00:52.520 --> 0:00:57.360 mental health, domestic abuse, UH, substance abuse, et cetera. So 0:00:57.800 --> 0:00:59.600 we have a rational plan to get back to work, 0:00:59.600 --> 0:01:02.240 the j the things to do, UH, and you know, 0:01:02.280 --> 0:01:04.840 hopefully it'll be keen around later, but it will be 0:01:04.959 --> 0:01:11.240 mad at July August, all right, So Jing July August. 0:01:11.400 --> 0:01:13.360 That seemed to set a little bit of a tone 0:01:13.560 --> 0:01:16.000 and people, as I said, really listen to Jamie Diamond, 0:01:16.480 --> 0:01:19.360 someone who knows this bank inside and out. We count 0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:23.039 on her for her insights. Is Michelle Davis, finance reporter 0:01:23.080 --> 0:01:25.800 for Bloomberg Jonius on the phone from Vermont, one of 0:01:25.840 --> 0:01:29.560 the hardest working reporters out there. Uh, Michelle, good to 0:01:29.640 --> 0:01:33.080 have you with us on such a busy day. Thank you. 0:01:33.840 --> 0:01:37.840 All right, So everybody checking out what j D was 0:01:37.920 --> 0:01:41.319 having to say, He seems like he's back to his 0:01:41.520 --> 0:01:44.640 old self in in many ways. What did he say 0:01:44.680 --> 0:01:48.160 that was most notable from the perspective of not just 0:01:48.640 --> 0:01:51.040 investors in the bank, but sort of the world at large, 0:01:51.040 --> 0:01:56.840 because he's a statesman of sorts at this point. Yeah, definitely. Um, well, 0:01:57.480 --> 0:02:00.120 I think the most notable thing, just in terms of 0:02:00.120 --> 0:02:04.320 what it means for the holy economy was the fact that, 0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:06.880 you know, Jupimorgan's profit fell to the lowest more than 0:02:07.000 --> 0:02:10.560 six years. Um. He had previously said that, you know, 0:02:10.600 --> 0:02:12.680 the bank wouldn't be immune to fall out from the 0:02:12.720 --> 0:02:15.760 pandemic and that he was predicting a Bader session. But 0:02:16.560 --> 0:02:19.079 the comments that you guys highlighted earlier about wanting to 0:02:19.600 --> 0:02:22.200 you know, get people back to work and reopen the 0:02:22.200 --> 0:02:26.079 economy were also I would say, very interesting because, um, 0:02:26.120 --> 0:02:29.400 you know something that there's a lot of debate about 0:02:29.520 --> 0:02:33.400 right now, and that I don't think anyone really knows 0:02:33.440 --> 0:02:36.320 like how soon this is going to happen. That the 0:02:36.360 --> 0:02:38.560 one definitive thing he did says he doesn't think it 0:02:38.600 --> 0:02:41.560 will happen before May. Um. And the other thing you 0:02:41.600 --> 0:02:44.359 mentioned that I thought was pretty interesting is that, you know, 0:02:44.400 --> 0:02:48.000 after he had hurt surgery, a lot of people I 0:02:48.040 --> 0:02:51.960 thought that, you know, this pretty severe surgery would would 0:02:52.120 --> 0:02:55.360 cause him to reevaluate, you know, his life choices, possibly 0:02:55.360 --> 0:02:59.560 retire earlier than anticipated. Um. And he totally you know, 0:02:59.639 --> 0:03:03.000 knocked those assumptions away and said that he was really 0:03:03.000 --> 0:03:05.120 eager to get back to work. But um, you know, 0:03:05.200 --> 0:03:09.880 having undergone this surgery, uh, did not change any of 0:03:09.960 --> 0:03:14.440 his his retirement plans. Um. Even though it did underscore 0:03:14.480 --> 0:03:17.240 the strength of of the banks bench and the fact 0:03:17.240 --> 0:03:19.720 that you know, managers were able to carry on without 0:03:19.800 --> 0:03:21.680 him for the for the four weeks that he was away. 0:03:21.880 --> 0:03:23.600 I love what he said, the quote that you guys 0:03:23.639 --> 0:03:26.040 have I'm walking several miles a day. I like working. 0:03:26.120 --> 0:03:28.079 I've been working for several weeks now. It doesn't really 0:03:28.160 --> 0:03:30.399 change very much how I view the world. So he's 0:03:30.440 --> 0:03:34.200 at their front and center. I thought also what was interesting, um, 0:03:34.280 --> 0:03:37.080 not only his take, and I do agree with Jason, 0:03:37.120 --> 0:03:40.680 that we are looking at leaders, you know, that transcend 0:03:40.680 --> 0:03:43.400 their industry to get an idea of, Okay, how do 0:03:43.520 --> 0:03:45.920 we come back from this virus? When do we reopen 0:03:46.320 --> 0:03:49.560 the economy, especially when you've got such uh, seemingly a 0:03:49.600 --> 0:03:52.880 battle between what's going on in Washington versus governors on 0:03:52.920 --> 0:03:55.200 the front lines in various states, certainly here in the 0:03:55.200 --> 0:03:58.840 New York metro area. Um, but it's interesting, you know 0:03:59.480 --> 0:04:01.280 what he had to say, because I think we are 0:04:01.360 --> 0:04:03.840 we are looking to these types of individuals to get 0:04:03.880 --> 0:04:05.760 an idea of, Okay, how do we come back? When 0:04:05.800 --> 0:04:10.480 do we come back exactly? And something that he didn't 0:04:10.560 --> 0:04:12.960 mention today but that was in his annual letter last 0:04:12.960 --> 0:04:16.640 week is that he thinks, uh, testing, an access to testing, 0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:18.719 it's gonna be something that's going to be really crucial 0:04:18.800 --> 0:04:22.360 to reopening the economy and getting people back to work, 0:04:24.279 --> 0:04:27.040 all right, Michelle Davis, we are going to leave it there. 0:04:27.480 --> 0:04:31.080 This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:35.920 Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Well, coronavirus cases are surpassing one 0:04:36.320 --> 0:04:39.320 ninety three million. Deaths are topping about a hundred and 0:04:39.320 --> 0:04:44.240 twenty d around the world. US docks, so they are 0:04:44.279 --> 0:04:47.440 shrugging that off because they're really rallying on signs of 0:04:47.520 --> 0:04:50.040 virus spread is easing, and there's more talk globally of 0:04:50.120 --> 0:04:55.520 countries and economies reopening. Let's talk about the realistic expectation 0:04:55.720 --> 0:04:58.920 of that. With Dr Joe and Roberts, chief Quality Officer 0:04:59.000 --> 0:05:01.919 Providence Sancho's of Health, on the phone from Everett, Washington. 0:05:01.960 --> 0:05:04.240 You might recall the first US case of the virus 0:05:04.279 --> 0:05:08.000 was confirmed in Washington State at Providence Regional Medical Severn 0:05:08.240 --> 0:05:11.719 Center and Everett, which is that part of that Providence St. 0:05:11.760 --> 0:05:15.520 Joseph's Health System UM. Dr Roberts, nice to have you 0:05:15.600 --> 0:05:18.239 here with us. There is an awful lot of talk 0:05:18.360 --> 0:05:23.359 about reopening UM economies around the globe, and at the 0:05:23.400 --> 0:05:26.559 same time we're hearing a lot of individuals including JP 0:05:26.680 --> 0:05:32.159 Morgan Chase CEO, Jamie Diamond also the governor Massachusetts. Everybody says, 0:05:32.240 --> 0:05:35.200 more testing, more testing. How do you see it? Can 0:05:35.240 --> 0:05:39.719 we reopen without doing more testing? Um? Yeah, So thanks 0:05:39.720 --> 0:05:43.120 for having me really appreciate it. Um Carol, Um, I 0:05:43.120 --> 0:05:47.560 do think uh testing uh is going to be a 0:05:47.640 --> 0:05:51.520 requirement for us we opening. We already are talking about 0:05:52.240 --> 0:05:54.840 just on the healthcare side, about what the world may 0:05:54.920 --> 0:05:59.800 look like as we slowly reopen our systems. Um, We'll 0:05:59.839 --> 0:06:03.440 look ing at the backup of things like surgery for 0:06:03.720 --> 0:06:07.920 slow growing cancers that had been put on pause as 0:06:07.960 --> 0:06:11.279 we responded to the acute pace, and folks are going 0:06:11.320 --> 0:06:14.279 to need that care. The question is how do we 0:06:14.360 --> 0:06:18.960 deliver that care in a safe way. We have certainly 0:06:19.040 --> 0:06:23.440 figured out how to isolate our COVID patients from all 0:06:23.480 --> 0:06:27.160 other patients. We know that our emergency rooms in our 0:06:27.400 --> 0:06:32.839 and our surgery departments are free of COVID because we've 0:06:32.880 --> 0:06:35.839 done such a good job of testing in the hospitals. 0:06:36.600 --> 0:06:39.479 But because testing is still limited, we just are not 0:06:39.560 --> 0:06:44.200 able to know where our communities are and how many 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:48.760 people are infected out in the community, which is really 0:06:48.800 --> 0:06:53.240 difficult than to know exactly how quickly we should all 0:06:53.279 --> 0:06:57.240 come back online. And so Dr Roberts. Help us understand 0:06:57.279 --> 0:07:00.760 from from your perspective and for a layment like myself, 0:07:01.120 --> 0:07:05.080 what does effective testing and tracing look like? What what 0:07:05.200 --> 0:07:08.560 could have you know regular person? You know, a regular 0:07:08.600 --> 0:07:13.600 well person reasonably expected in terms of our daily lives 0:07:13.640 --> 0:07:16.240 going forward if we get what we need in place. 0:07:17.480 --> 0:07:20.720 So if we have testing available, and that's both testing 0:07:21.320 --> 0:07:24.960 for people with infection, either before they have symptoms or 0:07:25.000 --> 0:07:28.520 active symptoms. So that's one set of tests, and the 0:07:28.560 --> 0:07:32.720 other set of tests are the test for antibodies shows 0:07:32.800 --> 0:07:36.520 who's been infected. We need both. We have some We 0:07:36.640 --> 0:07:41.720 have pretty we have improving testing on that active infection side. 0:07:41.840 --> 0:07:46.120 We still have gaps on the antibody side. But once 0:07:46.160 --> 0:07:50.239 we have those, then we can go into communities, test 0:07:50.320 --> 0:07:54.920 people randomly in a sampling of a statistical sample, and 0:07:54.960 --> 0:08:01.320 then understand more deeply where the infections clusters lie. So 0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:04.120 a small community might have a lot of infections of 0:08:04.160 --> 0:08:09.200 asymptomatic people. We might have communities or areas of communities 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:12.640 that we have a lot of immunity built up, and 0:08:12.680 --> 0:08:16.920 it will be important to know that in both in 0:08:17.000 --> 0:08:20.720 these economic discussions and in the health care discussions. All Right, 0:08:20.760 --> 0:08:22.600 so you're talking about test to see who as the 0:08:22.640 --> 0:08:25.440 antibodies test to see who has had the virus itself 0:08:25.520 --> 0:08:28.240 or who might have it. That's a lot of testing. Um, 0:08:28.280 --> 0:08:30.240 do we have the tests out there? Is it just 0:08:30.280 --> 0:08:34.080 a case that our medical community understandably is consumed which 0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:36.800 is taking care of people right now that have the virus? 0:08:36.960 --> 0:08:38.720 Is that why we're not getting things down to what's 0:08:38.720 --> 0:08:42.720 the hold up? So we don't have those tests right now? 0:08:42.840 --> 0:08:46.679 So the medical community is going on the proposition that 0:08:47.200 --> 0:08:51.880 until proven otherwise, people could be effect infected. So we 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:55.880 deliver our care in with a lot of equipment to 0:08:56.000 --> 0:09:01.360 keep everybody safe. But on the broader economy, is you, um, 0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:03.640 we don't have the test yet. We don't know what 0:09:03.760 --> 0:09:06.440 the best antibody test is going to be. We have 0:09:06.600 --> 0:09:09.760 quite a few out there on the market. Um, this 0:09:09.880 --> 0:09:13.680 is a complex virus to test for, so when testing 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:16.120 the antibodies, we have to know which antibodies are the 0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:19.520 ones that are going to be correlated with immunity to 0:09:19.640 --> 0:09:24.920 the future covid infection if any M and so Dr 0:09:25.040 --> 0:09:27.680 Roberts in just a sort of minute or so, we 0:09:27.760 --> 0:09:31.800 have left, what have you learned that may be given 0:09:31.880 --> 0:09:35.440 that you guys were ahead of the curve, as it were, 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:39.400 You dealt with this earlier than even though the infection 0:09:39.440 --> 0:09:41.080 may have been the same, you certainly dealt with it 0:09:41.120 --> 0:09:43.199 earlier than we did here on the East. Because what 0:09:43.240 --> 0:09:45.200 have you learned that that you know, we might be 0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:48.120 thinking about and especially maybe for some of the folks 0:09:48.120 --> 0:09:50.520 who are listening in areas where it hasn't really hit 0:09:50.640 --> 0:09:54.440 yet and may still. Um, I'll tell you what I 0:09:54.480 --> 0:09:58.160 have learned is communities come together in a crisis. So 0:09:58.559 --> 0:10:01.640 despite what decisions are being made on a policy level, 0:10:02.280 --> 0:10:05.160 we see communities coming together to help one another out. 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:09.000 And that's a wonderful part of a crisis, as painful 0:10:09.080 --> 0:10:12.880 as a crisis is. The second piece that I've learned 0:10:13.080 --> 0:10:16.480 is that our country has to prepare better for pandemics. 0:10:17.080 --> 0:10:21.240 We've always prepared well for things like hurricanes and earthquakes, 0:10:21.840 --> 0:10:24.880 but this is something of a totally different magnitude that 0:10:24.960 --> 0:10:27.480 we have to be thinking about always. Do you think 0:10:27.480 --> 0:10:29.920 we are thinking about it? Are you hearing from you know, 0:10:30.080 --> 0:10:32.360 folks that you work with on a federal in a 0:10:32.400 --> 0:10:34.040 state level, that we're thinking about it? Better only got 0:10:34.040 --> 0:10:38.160 about thirty seconds, Uh not yet? I think so. I 0:10:38.160 --> 0:10:40.400 think it's not the time to have that discussion. I 0:10:40.440 --> 0:10:43.040 think one thing settled down, we'll all have to sit 0:10:43.080 --> 0:10:45.679 down and be honest with one another about how prepared 0:10:45.760 --> 0:10:47.880 we were and how prepared we need to be. Yeah, 0:10:47.880 --> 0:10:50.480 and let's not right, you and we can't go back 0:10:50.559 --> 0:10:52.720 like We've got to make this part of our emergency 0:10:52.720 --> 0:10:57.120 planet going forward. We have to hope for the best 0:10:57.160 --> 0:11:00.959 and plan for the worst. Absolutely well, we really appreciate 0:11:01.080 --> 0:11:04.520 your work and your colleagues there. Dr Joan Roberts, Chief 0:11:04.559 --> 0:11:07.880 Quality Officer Providence St. Joseph Health on the phone from Everett, 0:11:07.920 --> 0:11:10.680 Washington and Carol, As you said, I mean, these guys 0:11:10.720 --> 0:11:14.920 have been an invaluable resource resource for us. Dr Roberts 0:11:14.960 --> 0:11:18.160 and her colleagues, especially Dr Amy Compton Phillips who joined 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:20.240 us in the early stages of this to help us 0:11:20.320 --> 0:11:23.920 understand what was going on. I felt a lot smarter 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:26.559 in terms of being able to deal with it, even 0:11:26.720 --> 0:11:30.120 sort of from a community perspective, knowing what they know 0:11:30.360 --> 0:11:32.199 and what Dr Roberts had to said about the different 0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:33.760 kinds of tests that need to be done and that 0:11:33.880 --> 0:11:35.840 we just don't even have those tests yet to be 0:11:35.880 --> 0:11:38.600 able to do it is really important to understand this 0:11:38.960 --> 0:11:42.600 is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:46.000 on Bloomberg Radio. We've been talking about this a lot 0:11:46.040 --> 0:11:48.680 on air, about where we are in the financial markets. 0:11:48.679 --> 0:11:52.319 Bull market, bear market. It's a fair question. Let's put 0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:55.760 that to Michael Reagan. Mike is Bloomberg Markets Live Blog 0:11:55.960 --> 0:11:59.679 senior editor joining us from New Jersey. Uh and he 0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:04.960 has this story in the magazine this week. So Mike 0:12:05.040 --> 0:12:10.679 talk to us because we've seen quite large moves in 0:12:10.720 --> 0:12:12.880 both directions for the equity market to the point where 0:12:12.880 --> 0:12:15.000 we were in a bear market and then we came 0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:17.719 back and then we technically could have started a new 0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:21.640 bull market. But I don't know where are we? Well, right, Carol, 0:12:21.679 --> 0:12:24.720 It's kind of there's not really a textbook definition to say, Okay, 0:12:24.760 --> 0:12:26.920 this is what a bull market or a bear market is. 0:12:26.960 --> 0:12:29.679 But the sort of rule of thumb that everyone uses 0:12:29.800 --> 0:12:33.600 is obviously, once you drop from a peak, you're in 0:12:33.600 --> 0:12:36.800 a bear market. But a lot of people think that 0:12:36.840 --> 0:12:39.439 if a bull market can then be defined as a 0:12:40.360 --> 0:12:43.600 gain from that low. So we have seen that, we've 0:12:43.640 --> 0:12:47.200 seen the SMP up more than from it's it's low 0:12:47.360 --> 0:12:51.080 in one on March. The problem is that the worst 0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:55.880 bear markets in history are famous for having episodes where 0:12:56.160 --> 0:13:00.720 the market rebounds significantly more than say it happened during 0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:03.760 the financial crisis at the end of two thousand and 0:13:03.840 --> 0:13:06.599 eight and in the early two thousand nine, but ultimately 0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:10.920 the low as yet to come. UM. Historically, if you 0:13:11.000 --> 0:13:14.079 look how long it takes for the SMP to find 0:13:14.200 --> 0:13:17.640 that bottom, to find that low point in a bear market, 0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:21.120 it take usually takes a long time, something like three 0:13:21.200 --> 0:13:25.120 hundred and seventy trading days on average, according to some 0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:29.920 numbers trunched by my colleague Cameron Christ. So obviously there's 0:13:29.920 --> 0:13:33.200 a lot of disparity in that. UM. Look at say 0:13:33.280 --> 0:13:37.360 the crash of nineteen nine, the bottom wasn't uh found 0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:41.800 until ninety two UM. In the two thousand and eight 0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:44.840 nine example, you know the market peak in two thousand 0:13:44.840 --> 0:13:48.440 and seven, the low wasn't found until two thousand and 0:13:48.520 --> 0:13:50.600 nine UM. And if you go all the way back 0:13:50.600 --> 0:13:53.680 to seven that that was the shortest time it took 0:13:53.800 --> 0:13:57.439 to reach a low. It was something like seventy four 0:13:57.480 --> 0:14:00.120 trading days. So if you look at this episod so 0:14:00.559 --> 0:14:03.280 that low we reached in March was only about twenty 0:14:03.320 --> 0:14:08.160 three days after the last record in the sp so 0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:11.920 historically it would just be unprecedented to see that low 0:14:12.040 --> 0:14:14.720 reached in such a short amount of time, right, all right, 0:14:14.760 --> 0:14:17.920 So Joel Weber also with this editor of the magazine, 0:14:18.000 --> 0:14:21.160 and you know, Joel, it it falls to you, lucky 0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:23.880 for us and maybe unfortunately for you, to sort of 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:27.680 synthesize all of this and and understand the financial markets 0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:30.880 in the context of the economy and the world of business. 0:14:30.960 --> 0:14:34.440 And we are reminded so often that the markets are not, uh, 0:14:34.480 --> 0:14:39.880 the economy. How did you approach this story? Well, first 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:42.440 of all, it's great to hear Mike's voice. It feels 0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:45.600 like it's been way too long. And well, well we 0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:51.120 talked to you yesterday, so you know, I'm getting lonely. 0:14:51.160 --> 0:14:55.720 I'm getting lone you know, look like I think the 0:14:55.800 --> 0:14:58.360 backdrop for everything for a lot of people here has 0:14:58.360 --> 0:15:01.640 obviously been unemployment number. But you know, here in the 0:15:01.640 --> 0:15:04.040 middle of all this, obviously the markets trying to figure 0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:07.920 out what to make of it, and the numbers that 0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:11.080 Mike um has in this story, you're just staggering to 0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:14.600 you know, go from this like highest high to lowest 0:15:14.640 --> 0:15:18.000 slow and just like a matter of days, really, Um 0:15:18.120 --> 0:15:19.920 and and I what I see when I look at 0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:22.480 it all is the markets trying to figure out what 0:15:22.640 --> 0:15:26.520 it all means. And um, you know, it really wants 0:15:26.560 --> 0:15:28.360 this to be over the other thing. And I think 0:15:28.600 --> 0:15:31.760 we're seeing that even today. Um, it's just desperately wanting 0:15:31.800 --> 0:15:34.160 to like get around the corner. And I'm not so 0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:35.920 sure that that, you know, And that's part of what 0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:38.680 Mike has in the story is like I'm not so sure. Um, 0:15:38.720 --> 0:15:40.920 you know that's gonna be. Um what we what we 0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:43.720 get to loose through? Um. But you know, Mike, I 0:15:43.720 --> 0:15:45.400 think the other thing, and this is in your story 0:15:45.440 --> 0:15:48.440 as well, Um, is the poster of Jerome Powell that 0:15:48.480 --> 0:15:52.440 you have on your wall, Um, which is a joke, 0:15:52.560 --> 0:16:00.360 but but you know it could happen. The The other 0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:02.640 thing that's happening here, obviously, is that traders know you 0:16:02.680 --> 0:16:06.200 do not fight the fit. Yeah, and that's where you know, 0:16:06.680 --> 0:16:10.320 as much as I just cited a bunch of historical precedents, 0:16:10.920 --> 0:16:14.480 it's very difficult in this current situation to really go 0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:16.600 back and compare it to anything in history because it's 0:16:16.640 --> 0:16:21.200 so unique. It's so unlike anything we've seen in history. Um. 0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:23.640 And the response from the Federal Reserve and the government 0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:28.640 that quick, massive, do whatever it takes. Response from both 0:16:28.640 --> 0:16:32.600 the Fed and Congress is is completely unprecedented in the 0:16:32.720 --> 0:16:36.120 history of you know, economic cycles that the markets had 0:16:36.160 --> 0:16:40.320 to work through before. So part of you know, one 0:16:40.320 --> 0:16:42.080 of the things that really caught my eye this week 0:16:42.240 --> 0:16:44.600 was that Goldman Sachs, their strategist, came out and said 0:16:44.640 --> 0:16:46.560 they think there's a good chance that that low is 0:16:46.600 --> 0:16:50.360 the load that it's been set, that this stimulus from 0:16:50.400 --> 0:16:53.600 the Fed and the Congress is so great, um that 0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:56.880 regardless of how ugly the data is gonna be coming 0:16:56.920 --> 0:17:00.400 up and and it's gonna be nasty. I mean JP 0:17:00.440 --> 0:17:04.800 Morgan estimating something like a fort contraction in GDP, I mean, 0:17:04.880 --> 0:17:08.159 just a head around that, right, I know, it's just 0:17:08.280 --> 0:17:12.000 mind boggling uh to think about. And you know, the earnings, 0:17:12.119 --> 0:17:14.920 the dipping earnings, it's going to be just as bad, 0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:17.560 you know. I think it's like a thirty some percent 0:17:17.880 --> 0:17:23.400 UH decrease expected in the second quarter. UM. But when 0:17:23.400 --> 0:17:26.320 you have that much support from the Fed, when you know, 0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:30.159 sort of suppressing interest rates, buying up all sorts of 0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:33.800 assets to keep that liquidity flowing, it's very hard to 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:38.560 put a d faith into those historical precedents because of 0:17:38.600 --> 0:17:42.679 this uh you know, unprecedented response that we're saying. But 0:17:43.119 --> 0:17:46.040 you know that said, there's just a lot of bad 0:17:46.080 --> 0:17:48.960 news that we sought to work through. Um it's it's 0:17:49.000 --> 0:17:53.320 really hard to imagine this market continuing on this sort 0:17:53.320 --> 0:17:55.840 of V shaped recovery that it's in. Well. And the 0:17:55.880 --> 0:17:58.439 thing is, you know you're right and if one are 0:17:58.440 --> 0:18:00.280 the big gifts out there, as you write in your story, 0:18:00.400 --> 0:18:03.399 is if infections come back a second time, I mean, 0:18:03.440 --> 0:18:05.960 then all bets are off. What I wanted to ask you, though, Mike, 0:18:06.119 --> 0:18:09.159 is the rally as respected when it's courtesy of the 0:18:09.200 --> 0:18:13.280 FED and policymakers and big stimulus programs. You know, there 0:18:13.280 --> 0:18:16.800 were there will always be people that sort of um 0:18:17.280 --> 0:18:19.480 roll their eyes, were you know, pinch their nose that 0:18:19.680 --> 0:18:22.160 at the notion that the FED is doing so much, 0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:25.000 um to support the market. Fed. Let's get to mean, 0:18:25.040 --> 0:18:27.680 what else could they do? This is such a shock 0:18:27.720 --> 0:18:30.960 to the economy there, you know, they had to respond aggressively, 0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:35.000 uh and with force, as did the Congress and the government. UM. 0:18:35.520 --> 0:18:39.280 So I think eventually there's you know, the worry about 0:18:39.280 --> 0:18:41.800 a day of reckoning. What does this all mean? Down 0:18:41.840 --> 0:18:44.760 the line, how does the FED ever exit from this 0:18:45.520 --> 0:18:48.960 uh great support it's given to the economy. Um, when 0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:50.919 do we know it's it's sort of healthy enough to 0:18:50.960 --> 0:18:53.240 begin exiting? And what happens then? I mean, we already 0:18:53.280 --> 0:18:57.840 saw sort of a crack in markets when they started 0:18:57.920 --> 0:19:02.119 raising interest rates and started on winding their quantitative using 0:19:02.400 --> 0:19:06.720 uh from the last cycle. So you know, I think 0:19:06.760 --> 0:19:09.399 that the concern is not that they're doing it, but 0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:12.000 are they sort of pushing the kicking the can down 0:19:12.000 --> 0:19:15.240 the road and creating a problem with the deal with eventually. Yeah, alright, 0:19:15.320 --> 0:19:20.120 Mike Reagan, always good to catch up with you, writer, broadcaster, 0:19:20.320 --> 0:19:25.320 podcaster extraordinaire. Check out his podcast. Check out j Powell Poster. 0:19:26.080 --> 0:19:28.280 Come on, Mike, you can come clean with us. We 0:19:28.640 --> 0:19:30.680 are going to still love you. Yeah, exactly, We're gonna 0:19:30.720 --> 0:19:33.280 love you even more alright. Check out that Story's on 0:19:33.280 --> 0:19:36.040 the Bloomberg Today and on Bloomberg dot Com in the 0:19:36.119 --> 0:19:41.000 upcoming issue of Bloomberg Business Week. This is Bloomberg Business 0:19:41.040 --> 0:19:45.040 Week with Carol Messer and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. 0:19:45.320 --> 0:19:49.240 We're also watching some big political news today, so let's 0:19:49.240 --> 0:19:51.720 get into that with Jennifer Epstein she's political reporter at 0:19:51.760 --> 0:19:55.359 Bloomberg News. She's on the phone from Washington. So Joe, So, 0:19:55.480 --> 0:19:59.760 Joe Biden Um getting a big endorsement from his former boss, 0:20:00.080 --> 0:20:03.760 Barack Obama. We've got a little snippet of what Mr Obama, 0:20:03.840 --> 0:20:06.920 former President Obama had to say. The kind of leadership 0:20:06.920 --> 0:20:13.440 that's guided by knowledge and experience, honesty and humility, empathy 0:20:13.600 --> 0:20:16.920 and grace. That kind of leadership doesn't just belong in 0:20:16.960 --> 0:20:20.879 our state capitals and mayor's offices. It belongs in the 0:20:20.880 --> 0:20:25.000 White House. And that's why I'm so proud to endorse 0:20:25.200 --> 0:20:28.840 Joe Biden for President of the United States. Choosing Joe 0:20:28.880 --> 0:20:30.640 to be my vice president was one of the best 0:20:30.680 --> 0:20:33.600 decisions I ever made, and he became a close friend, 0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:36.800 and I believe Joe has all the qualities we need 0:20:37.040 --> 0:20:42.359 in a president right now. So Jennifer, Okay, nice, thank you. 0:20:42.400 --> 0:20:46.720 President Obama took them long enough. Yeah, you know, President, 0:20:46.960 --> 0:20:49.240 It's kind of a weird thing because President Obama made 0:20:49.240 --> 0:20:52.159 clearer even before Joe Biden got into this race just 0:20:52.280 --> 0:20:54.800 about a year ago at this point, Um that he 0:20:54.840 --> 0:20:58.560 wasn't going to endorse anybody until the whole primary had 0:20:58.600 --> 0:21:01.919 been decided by the orders of the party, and yet 0:21:02.000 --> 0:21:04.359 you know, there's still this kind of thing where it's like, Okay, 0:21:04.560 --> 0:21:07.040 this guy was your vice president and close friends for 0:21:07.080 --> 0:21:09.920 the last eight years, um, you know. So there was 0:21:09.960 --> 0:21:11.800 sort of an expectation and in a little bit of 0:21:11.800 --> 0:21:16.320 a dishonest argument sometimes from President Trump another Republicans saying well, 0:21:16.359 --> 0:21:20.920 if you know, they clearly see why Biden shouldn't be president, 0:21:21.000 --> 0:21:23.399 or or Obama would be endorsing him already, which is 0:21:23.480 --> 0:21:27.679 you know, um, you know, but disingenuous. But here, uh, 0:21:27.880 --> 0:21:31.360 you have this endorsement from Obama today. It was really 0:21:31.400 --> 0:21:34.480 an effort, I think, to get Democrats and people who 0:21:34.480 --> 0:21:38.840 are persuadable to vote for Biden to start thinking seriously 0:21:38.840 --> 0:21:42.400 about doing that, um, even if they supported Bernie Sanders 0:21:42.520 --> 0:21:45.840 or somebody else in the primary. But now the focus 0:21:45.960 --> 0:21:49.160 is solely on beating Trump in November. Um, and that's 0:21:49.160 --> 0:21:52.560 where all the energy for anybody who doesn't like Trump 0:21:53.200 --> 0:21:56.560 needs to go. And President Obama's view all right, So 0:21:56.600 --> 0:22:01.199 speaking of that energy, Jennifer, how much energy do we 0:22:01.240 --> 0:22:05.040 think we'll see from former President Obama, maybe former First 0:22:05.080 --> 0:22:09.960 Lady Michelle Obama really out there? Um, and I guess 0:22:09.960 --> 0:22:13.720 out there is a relative term in this current environment, right, Um, 0:22:13.760 --> 0:22:15.679 what is it going to look like now that the 0:22:15.720 --> 0:22:19.399 Obama's are engaged? Yeah, well, I think out there is 0:22:20.119 --> 0:22:23.199 part of the challenge, because there is out there is 0:22:23.320 --> 0:22:28.200 the inside everybody's respective home in front of the camera. Um. 0:22:28.720 --> 0:22:31.679 Because presumably, sorry to interrupt you, but like presumably in 0:22:31.720 --> 0:22:34.159 a more normal world, this would have been done in 0:22:34.280 --> 0:22:37.240 a huge rally, you know, like an Obama you know, 0:22:37.359 --> 0:22:39.840 sort of a classic Obama get them all riled up, 0:22:40.119 --> 0:22:42.919 you know sort of situation. Right. Well, you know, I 0:22:42.960 --> 0:22:45.800 covered the Hillary Clinton campaign in T six team for 0:22:45.840 --> 0:22:49.400 Bloomberg News, and back then it was actually done similar 0:22:49.440 --> 0:22:53.680 way where there was a video put out by Obama 0:22:53.800 --> 0:22:56.640 and then that was very quickly followed by the announcement 0:22:56.760 --> 0:22:58.440 of a rally that he was going to do with 0:22:58.520 --> 0:23:01.920