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Speaker 1: Welcome everyone to the Monday edition of Fair Territory. I

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Speaker 1: am coming to you this morning from Los Angeles, site

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Speaker 1: of the National League Championship Series Games one and two.

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Speaker 1: I am taping this program at seven am Local time,

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Speaker 1: before the start of Game two of the NLCS, before

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Speaker 1: the start of Game one of the ALCS, so I

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Speaker 1: will give you that warning before we even get into this,

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Speaker 1: because obviously by the time you watch this things might change.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully you'll watch it before, but if you don't, well

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Speaker 1: that's okay. Some of these things that I'm going to

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Speaker 1: discuss still should apply the NLCS. Obviously, Game one was

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Speaker 1: a route nine to nothing for the Dodgers over the Mets.

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Speaker 1: It was just not Code I Sanga's night for starters,

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Speaker 1: and then the Dodgers just kept teeing off. What I

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Speaker 1: wrote about today in The Athletic in the wind up,

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Speaker 1: not a full calm, but just in our daily newsletter.

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Speaker 1: The wind up was my concern that the Mets are

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Speaker 1: not going to be able to stop shohe Otani, particularly

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Speaker 1: with their bullpen. Now they've got some left handed starters.

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Speaker 1: Sha Naya, who pitches in Game two. He has reverse splits,

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Speaker 1: so he's not your classic left hand or perhaps but

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Speaker 1: him and Jose Kintana. That gives the Mets a shot

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Speaker 1: against Otani. Of course, David Peterson out of the bullpen

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Speaker 1: in theory, that gives the Mets a shot with Otani

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Speaker 1: as well. But as I said on the broadcast last night,

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Speaker 1: the Mets do not have a dominant lefty in their pen.

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Speaker 1: They do not have a Tanner Scott, who was so

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Speaker 1: effective against the Dodgers and Otani in particular in the

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Speaker 1: Division series. Scott struck out Otani all four times that

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Speaker 1: they met. The Mets don't have that guy. So they

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Speaker 1: bring Peterson out of the bullpen last night, first meeting

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Speaker 1: with Otani. Remember Peterson is the Otani whisperer for the Mets.

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Speaker 1: First meeting, one hundred and seventy mile per Howard double,

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Speaker 1: and here we go. So that is my concern for

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Speaker 1: the Mets. Obviously, they're a really good team, and I

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Speaker 1: don't count them out in any way at all. Anyone

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Speaker 1: who has watched them this season cannot count them out

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Speaker 1: because they've lost one game on a night Code Isce

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Speaker 1: wasn't very good. No way, the Mets have every bit

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Speaker 1: the chance of coming back in this series, and making

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Speaker 1: it a long series six or seven games, but I

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Speaker 1: still don't see them quite in the same way I

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Speaker 1: saw the Padres as far as pure talent is concerned,

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Speaker 1: and as far as pitching talent is concerned. Remember, Darvish

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Speaker 1: two held Otani hitless in six at bats. The Mets

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Speaker 1: don't really have a Darvish, though certainly Senga is a

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Speaker 1: right hander, is somewhat similar in his stuff. That's a problem,

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Speaker 1: and I don't see how the Mets are going to

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Speaker 1: counter Otani, and for that matter, the rest of the

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Speaker 1: Dodgers lineup effectively unless their starters give them really good

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Speaker 1: length and make sure that the bullpen is not overexposed,

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Speaker 1: because there is a clear edge in the bullpen in

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Speaker 1: this series. Now, the Dodgers, they've now thrown thirty three

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Speaker 1: consecutive scoreless innings in the postseason. This is amazing to me.

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Speaker 1: I can't believe it's even happening, but it is happening.

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Speaker 1: And it started with twenty four consecutive scoreless innings against

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Speaker 1: the Padres, a team that overall, as I said, arguably

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Speaker 1: is more talented than the Mets, certainly with more offensive firepower,

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Speaker 1: I would say than the Mets. Tim Britton of The

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Speaker 1: Athletic revealing this morning that Brandon Nimo is playing with

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Speaker 1: Planter for schitis. That's not good. But at the same time,

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Speaker 1: the Mets have been incredibly resourceful, incredibly clutch the entire

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Speaker 1: postseason and of course leading into the postseason. I'm having

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Speaker 1: a hard time seeing it right now, having hard time

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Speaker 1: seeing the Mets win this series. But as John Smoltz

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Speaker 1: often says on the broadcast, he says this all the time,

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Speaker 1: and it's a good thing he says it all the

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Speaker 1: time because it's absolutely true. Narratives in the postseason change

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Speaker 1: with each game. We know in baseball as well, momentum

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Speaker 1: can change with each day's starting pitcher. The Dodgers don't

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Speaker 1: really have a starting pitcher for Game two. They're gonna

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Speaker 1: go with a bullpen game Landon Knack, their rookie will

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Speaker 1: be expected to hold down a number of innings. So

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Speaker 1: is it possible that this series returns to New York

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Speaker 1: with a one to one split. Absolutely, it is possible,

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Speaker 1: And in fact, I would be surprised if the Mets

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Speaker 1: simply went out in four or five games here. I

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Speaker 1: don't see that happening. So that's the NLCS a high

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Speaker 1: powered matchup between the two of the most expensive teams

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Speaker 1: of the sport. In the ALCS, we have only one

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Speaker 1: of the most expensive teams in the sport, the Yankees

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Speaker 1: facing the Guardians now this series two is rather interesting.

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Speaker 1: The Guardians have been this plucky club all season long.

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Speaker 1: They've done a great job eliminate the Tigers in five

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Speaker 1: games after falling behind two games to one in the

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Speaker 1: Division series, much like the Dodgers eliminated the Padres after

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Speaker 1: falling behind two games to one. The problem I see

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Speaker 1: with the Guardians is that while their bullpen is among

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Speaker 1: the best in the game, if not the best in

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Speaker 1: the game Kate Smith, Emmanuel Class, these guys are brilliant,

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Speaker 1: and the rest of their relievers are as well. My

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Speaker 1: concern for the Guardians is how they're going to get

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Speaker 1: the lead. This is not a team that is an

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Speaker 1: offensive juggernaut. They finished the season ranked fourteenth in the

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Speaker 1: league in runs per game, the Yankees worth third. In

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Speaker 1: the second half of the season after the All Star break,

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Speaker 1: the Guardians were twenty seventh in the league in runs

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Speaker 1: per game twenty seventh, and they didn't exactly crush it

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Speaker 1: in the Division Series. They did score nineteen runs in

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Speaker 1: four games, but were shut out in two of them.

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Speaker 1: So to effectively deploy your bullpen, you've got to get

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Speaker 1: a lead, and I don't know necessarily how the Guardians

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Speaker 1: are going to get the lead unless the Yankees pitch poorly.

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Speaker 1: The Yankees, though, have one of the better deeper rotations

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Speaker 1: in this tournament. They're going to start off with Carlos Rodin,

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Speaker 1: then go with Cole Clark, Schmidt, Luis Heel. That's four

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Speaker 1: pretty good starters. And their bullpen down the stretch and

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Speaker 1: especially in the postseason, has been resurgent. All you Yankee

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Speaker 1: fans who wanted Clay Holmes run out of town, I

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Speaker 1: guess you're loving him now. I guess like the Mets

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Speaker 1: fans are loving Pete Alonzo after wanting to run him

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Speaker 1: out of town earlier. That's baseball. We all get it.

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Speaker 1: So the Yankees here are well positioned. And I've written

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Speaker 1: this and I'll say it again. This path for the

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Speaker 1: Yankees it cannot be better. They faced Kansas City in

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Speaker 1: the Division Series. Now they barely beat Kansas City in

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Speaker 1: some ways, runs scored fourteen to twelve. Kansas City had

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Speaker 1: the thirteenth ranked offense in the game this season, if

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Speaker 1: they had played Detroit the Yankees, they would have faced

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Speaker 1: the Tigers, tied for nineteenth in runs per game. These

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Speaker 1: are not good offenses. These Ales Central teams just are

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Speaker 1: not that high powered. So at some point, you're gonna

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Speaker 1: see Judge come into play, You're gonna see Stanton maybe

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Speaker 1: continue to come into play. You're gonna see Juan Soto

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Speaker 1: come into play. Judge and Soto haven't done all that

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Speaker 1: much yet. How long is that going to last? Exactly? So,

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Speaker 1: I like the Yankees in this series. I like them

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Speaker 1: to win maybe in six even five. I just don't

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Speaker 1: see the Guardians matching up with him. And don't get

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Speaker 1: me wrong, I am not being disrespectful to the Guardians here,

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Speaker 1: because the Guardians have had an amazing season. They've done

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Speaker 1: some remarkable things. They've got one of the great stars

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Speaker 1: in the game in Jose Ramirez. I'm just saying, when

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Speaker 1: you match up these teams on paper, it looks like

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Speaker 1: it's going to be difficult for Cleveland to stay with

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Speaker 1: the Yankees. Now, if they're resourceful on offense, if they

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Speaker 1: can get some leads and then turn it over to

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Speaker 1: that bullpen, Wow, let's go. I just don't know that

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Speaker 1: it's going to happen, and both for the Dodgers and Guardians.

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Speaker 1: One last point, it's easy to bullpen. I shouldn't say easy.

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Speaker 1: It's possible to bullpen in a five game series. The

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Speaker 1: Dodgers did it very effectively in their Division series against

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Speaker 1: the Padres. The Guardians did it effectively in their Division

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Speaker 1: series against the Tigers. It becomes a lot tougher in

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Speaker 1: a seven game series. There's more exposure to the relievers.

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Speaker 1: There's also more games to play, more innings to cover.

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Speaker 1: It's just not as easy to do, so that could

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Speaker 1: be an X factor here as well. We're looking at

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Speaker 1: two bullpen games, most likely by the Dodgers. Here, we're

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Speaker 1: looking at two bullpen games I would expect from the

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Speaker 1: Guardians as well. We'll see how it all plays out

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Speaker 1: for these clubs. It's better to have starters it and

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Speaker 1: go deeper into games. That's the reality. The Mets have

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Speaker 1: it and the Yankees have it. Time now for the

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Speaker 1: Inside Dish, the part of the show where I talk

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Speaker 1: maybe about an article i've written, a trend in the game,

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Speaker 1: anything at all. But today I want to talk about

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Speaker 1: something that we talk about every October and that is

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Speaker 1: managing in the postseason, after the Dodgers eliminated the Padres

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Speaker 1: in the Division Series, I wrote a long column about

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Speaker 1: Dave Roberts and how if they had lost, If the

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Speaker 1: Dodgers had gone down, gone down for a third straight

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Speaker 1: year to a division opponent, a lower seeded division opponent

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Speaker 1: in the division series, then Dave Roberts might have lost

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Speaker 1: his job. It would not have been fair. Dave Roberts

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Speaker 1: has the highest winning percentage of any non negro league

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Speaker 1: manager in baseball history. It's an amazing thing. He is

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Speaker 1: that guy. And yet, as I wrote, if they had

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Speaker 1: lost again, third straight year, third straight elimination in the

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Speaker 1: DS two division rival, yeah, there would have been a

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Speaker 1: lot of noise. And when I spoke with Roberts after

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Speaker 1: the game, he acknowledged that there would have been a

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Speaker 1: lot of noise, and he said, I'm not gonna lie.

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Speaker 1: That crept into my thinking, and while I wasn't consumed

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Speaker 1: by it, I certainly managed the way I wanted to manage.

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Speaker 1: I had full clarity, and the players performed. He did

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Speaker 1: acknowledge again that this was a thing he was I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't say worried necessarily, but he was certainly mindful that

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Speaker 1: another upset defeat in the DS by an NL West

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Speaker 1: rival was not maybe going to end well for him.

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Speaker 1: So we talk about managing in the postseason, and we

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Speaker 1: assess managers in the postseason, and we judge them all

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Speaker 1: the time. That's the nature of the game. That's the

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Speaker 1: beauty of the game that we get to talk about

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Speaker 1: these things and debate them. But as Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers'

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Speaker 1: president of baseball operation, said after that Division Series triumph,

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Speaker 1: the theater of October baseball is all outcome based. If

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Speaker 1: you have a good outcome, positive things are said and written.

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Speaker 1: If you have a bad outcome, really bad things are

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Speaker 1: said and written. True words were never spoken. And the

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Speaker 1: thing is, most of these decisions are based on a

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Speaker 1: ream of information, a ton of information. They're based on

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Speaker 1: assessments of matchups, hitters, swings, how it matches up against

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Speaker 1: the pitcher's stuff, where a picture is in the game,

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Speaker 1: how he's tiring, if he is tiring at all. All

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Speaker 1: of these factors come into play, and when teams make decisions,

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Speaker 1: when managers make decisions in general, actually, for the most part,

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Speaker 1: I should say, they're not coming out of nowhere. They're

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Speaker 1: based on a certain set of data, a certain instinct

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Speaker 1: that the manager might have all of these things in combination.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes the decisions work out, sometimes they don't. For Dave

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Speaker 1: Roberts in this Division Series, and then now in the

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Speaker 1: NLCS they've worked out beautifully. We saw in the Division

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Speaker 1: Series they had a bullpen game in Game four, shutout,

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Speaker 1: and that's hard to do. It's hard to do because

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Speaker 1: one reliever's failure could lead to the collapse of the

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Speaker 1: whole equation. And then in Game five they chose you Yamamoto.

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Speaker 1: Kind of an obvious decision since they're paying them three

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty five million, but they built the bullpen

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Speaker 1: from there, got five innings out of Yamamoto, And again,

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Speaker 1: Dave Roberts could do no wrong. In plenty of postseasons past,

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Speaker 1: Dave Roberts could do wrong, at least in the eyes

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Speaker 1: of those looking at these games and judging his pitching decisions.

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Speaker 1: You guys remember the rich Hill decision. I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to go chapter and verse into each one, but there

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Speaker 1: were some bad outcomes, some outcomes that led to a

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Speaker 1: lot of scrutiny. Now I want to refer to something

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Speaker 1: that Baseball America's JJ Cooper put on X earlier this

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Speaker 1: week because this two struck to the heart of the matter.

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Speaker 1: He's talking about the Tarrek scoobl game in Game five

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Speaker 1: Division Series Guardians versus Tigers. JJ said, if you thought

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Speaker 1: the Ray's decision to pull Ace Blake Snell was crazy

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Speaker 1: in the twenty twenty World Series, I will present today

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Speaker 1: as an example of how it can go wrong the

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Speaker 1: other way. Scooble is even better than Snell was. Was

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Speaker 1: cruising and then in a five batter stretch the game

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Speaker 1: was decided. He's talking, of course, about the Grand Slam

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Speaker 1: by Lane Thomas. Now, JJ continues staying with Scooble made

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Speaker 1: tons of sense. He's the best pitcher in baseball. He

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Speaker 1: was cruising, the Tiger's pen was tired. But it's also

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Speaker 1: true that these are fifty five forty five calls. Sometimes

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Speaker 1: it works, sometimes it doesn't. What JJ is saying there

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Speaker 1: is kind of a variation of what Andrew Friedman was saying.

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Speaker 1: It's outcome based. Things will happen good and bad, and

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Speaker 1: it doesn't mean the manager is really brilliant, and it

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Speaker 1: doesn't mean the manager is not all that smart. Now,

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Speaker 1: there are other factors that come into the assessment of

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Speaker 1: a manager how he builds his lineup. For example, is

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Speaker 1: one Mike Schildt, the Padres manager in the Division series,

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Speaker 1: had Jackson Merrill batting fifth, and I had a number

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Speaker 1: of Dodgers people tell me during that series that if

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Speaker 1: Merrill had batted third, it would have presented more complications

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Speaker 1: for them in trying to get through with their bullpen.

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Speaker 1: So you want to assess a manager for that's certainly,

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Speaker 1: that's fair, But I'm talking strictly about the pitching this decisions. Now,

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Speaker 1: getting back to JJ Cooper's tweets, when he tweeted that

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Speaker 1: naturally people started screaming at him the Snell decision was ridiculous,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of people noted, and this is true

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Speaker 1: that the decision wasn't so bad or as bad as

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Speaker 1: the decision to put Nick Anderson into the game in

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Speaker 1: place of Snell. Again, we can talk about this all

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Speaker 1: day long, but the point remains the same. These are

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Speaker 1: as JJ said, fifty five forty five calls. Sometimes they

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Speaker 1: will work out, sometimes they won't. Sometimes, if you're a

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Speaker 1: manager with a limited bullpen, for example, you're gonna have

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Speaker 1: matchups that almost are checkmate against you. That's how I

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Speaker 1: see the Mets right now against the Dodgers in this

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Speaker 1: series with their bullpen. I don't know how they're gonna

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Speaker 1: put Otani in check. I don't see it. So again,

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Speaker 1: when we watch these games, absolutely feel free to criticize,

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Speaker 1: feel free to analyze, feel free to think whatever you want.

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Speaker 1: But just know this, It's not as simple as we

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Speaker 1: sometimes think. And that goes for the media too. It's

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Speaker 1: not as clear cut in these decisions that we might

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Speaker 1: sitting at home, or even sitting in the ballpark or

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Speaker 1: even sitting down by the dugout might believe. There is

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Speaker 1: a lot that goes into this. And I'm not trying

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Speaker 1: to excuse anything. All I'm trying to do is explain

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Speaker 1: that what Andrew Friedman said again, truer words were never spoken.

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Speaker 1: These decisions are outcome based, and when we judge them,

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Speaker 1: we're judging them on outcomes, not on process, and not always.

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Speaker 1: Is that a fair way to go about it. We'll

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Speaker 1: be back afterward from Aj Prazinski, Eric Kratz and Scott.

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Speaker 1: Time down for Grill and Ken. The part of the

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Speaker 1: show where I answer your questions. Let's get right to them.

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Speaker 1: First question comes from Mason Keith, who asks what market

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Speaker 1: do you expect Walker Buehler to have in free agency.

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Speaker 1: Excellent question, Mason, and this I would say is an

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Speaker 1: evolving story. Walker Bueller is coming off his second Timmy

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Speaker 1: John surgery. He has been inconsistent since coming back, and

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Speaker 1: yet in the Division Series, that game he pitched when

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Speaker 1: he gave up the six runs in the second inning

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Speaker 1: and then kind of held the padres at bay for

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Speaker 1: the next three innings, got through five. That showed you

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Speaker 1: that he still kind of has it a little bit.

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Speaker 1: And if he pitches well the remainder of the postseason,

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Speaker 1: that's only going to increase his value. Of course, coming

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Speaker 1: off surgeries, it's never easy. No one can expect pitchers

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Speaker 1: to be in peak form. But if he shows that

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Speaker 1: he can be somewhat like the old Walker Buller, the

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Speaker 1: guy who is a dominant postseason pitcher, teams will be

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Speaker 1: more inclined to perhaps give him a really good deal.

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Speaker 1: He's thirty years old. He's a guy who I don't

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Speaker 1: expect will get a long term deal simply because of

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Speaker 1: his medical history. But on a short term, two year,

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Speaker 1: I don't know, thirty million dollar deal maybe more with

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Speaker 1: an opt out that I can see. I can see

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Speaker 1: him getting one of those short term, high dollar deals

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Speaker 1: because he is a bit of a risk, I would

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Speaker 1: think physically, just because of his history. And you don't

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Speaker 1: know exactly what you're getting, just because of that inconsistency

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Speaker 1: that I mentioned. Next question, This one comes from Weezy,

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Speaker 1: who asks will the Detroit Tigers be aggressive in the offseason?

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Speaker 1: Weezy I wrote an entire column about this, I don't know,

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Speaker 1: maybe a month ago, and the point of the calm

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Speaker 1: was basically saying, Hey, Okay, Tigers have done really well.

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Speaker 1: They've got a nice group of young players. Now they

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Speaker 1: need to go spend again. And when I wrote that,

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Speaker 1: I wasn't necessarily expecting that they would spend again, because

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Speaker 1: they're a team that I would expect is going to

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Speaker 1: be mindful of doing anything that they would consider stupid.

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Speaker 1: Teams are always thinking this way, we don't want to

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Speaker 1: do anything stupid. Heaven forbid we take a chance. Well,

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Speaker 1: they could use maybe a first baseman like Christian Walker.

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Speaker 1: I can go right down the line and suggest fixes

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Speaker 1: for their offense. I would expect they're going to be

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Speaker 1: more aggressive than they've been in recent years. Remember the

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Speaker 1: Flaherty deal was a one year deal. They haven't been

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Speaker 1: going out there, but they do not want to block

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Speaker 1: their young players either, so it's going to be kind

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Speaker 1: of a mixed bag for them. I would suggest they

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Speaker 1: could use another high end veteran starter to go with

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Speaker 1: school as well. They've got a window here with schoobl

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Speaker 1: We've got two more years left, so this is a

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Speaker 1: good chance for them to do some things. They do

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Speaker 1: need to spend in my estimation, but I'm not so

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Speaker 1: sure that we can expect them to do anything that.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, what's the word here, radical? Actually I

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Speaker 1: don't think spending money is radical, but clubs might think that.

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Speaker 1: So we'll see what they do, all right. The final

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Speaker 1: question comes from Mike Lunardi. Mike asks nobody likes the

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Speaker 1: postseason by layoff. What are the chances of a single

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Speaker 1: wildcard game then three best of seven series? Mike, this

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Speaker 1: is a good question. Now. The talk of how this

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Speaker 1: format is kind of warped has died a little bit

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Speaker 1: this offseason because we've had in a division series three

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Speaker 1: of the higher seeds win three of the higher seeds.

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Speaker 1: The teams with the buys prevailed over their opponents three

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Speaker 1: of the four. Okay, still doesn't mean the format is perfect,

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Speaker 1: and still doesn't mean it can't be tweaked. Now. The

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Speaker 1: idea of three seven game series is appealing because seven

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Speaker 1: game series is a fairer test of the quality of

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Speaker 1: the two teams involved. Right, five games is a little

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Speaker 1: bit more of a crapshoot in a single wildcard day.

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Speaker 1: I like that idea that's been suggested by Travis Saucik.

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Speaker 1: The Union, I believe suggested it as well. Basically, what

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Speaker 1: it is is you play one day. The higher seeded

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Speaker 1: wildcard only has to win one game, the lower seeded

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Speaker 1: wildcard has to win two. It's effectively a double header

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Speaker 1: that would certainly shorten the lag time between the end

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Speaker 1: of the season and the start of the division series,

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Speaker 1: and presumably could give you the ability to play three

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Speaker 1: seven game series. The problem with three seven game series

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Speaker 1: as I see it, I just don't see the pitching

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Speaker 1: being deep enough for any team to withstand that. You

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Speaker 1: might say it's not really any different than wildcard series

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Speaker 1: best of three five game division series, and I guess not.

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Speaker 1: It might not be different, but man, we see what

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Speaker 1: these teams are doing, scrambling to the finish line to

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Speaker 1: keep their pitchers healthy, just to get able bodies on

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Speaker 1: the mound. It's not easy. So from that perspective, I'd

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Speaker 1: be reluctant. But you know what, Mike, it's a good question,

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Speaker 1: certainly something worthy of further discussion. I want to thank

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Speaker 1: everyone for their questions, everyone for watching, for listening. You

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Speaker 1: guys know where to find us by now, YouTube, Apple, Spotify.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back Thursday, myself and Alana Rizzo with our

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Speaker 1: normal Thursday program twelve thirty Eastern, nine thirty Pacific. That

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Speaker 1: one will be live. Stay with us, enjoy the LCS,

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Speaker 1: and we'll talk to you soon.

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