1
00:00:03,360 --> 00:00:08,039
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg surveillance. Because our demographics is shifted, We're

2
00:00:08,080 --> 00:00:10,560
Speaker 1: getting much more improvement in the job market than you

3
00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:13,840
Speaker 1: would have expected. At the general concern that central banks,

4
00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:16,720
Speaker 1: you really don't have a lot left that they can do.

5
00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:20,560
Speaker 1: We have concerns about policy effectiveness. What's happening in Japan

6
00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,880
Speaker 1: speaks to fundamental worries about how effective are central banks.

7
00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:29,200
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance your link to the world of economics, finance,

8
00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:33,200
Speaker 1: and investment. On Bloomberg Radio, Good morning everyone, Michael McKeon,

9
00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:37,000
Speaker 1: Tim Keene with Markets Exceptional this morning, we walk up

10
00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:41,640
Speaker 1: all of you worldwide. Bloomberg twelve hundred Boston, Bloomberg FM

11
00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:46,400
Speaker 1: Washington with Janet Yellin's testimony in one hour Bloomberg eleven

12
00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:48,240
Speaker 1: creon New York. Good Morning out of the West Coast,

13
00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:51,280
Speaker 1: Bloomberg during sixty in the Bay Area, a special Good

14
00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:55,880
Speaker 1: morning across all of serious. The next time Channel one

15
00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:59,160
Speaker 1: nine teen. UH the markets we could do in our

16
00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:01,840
Speaker 1: data check. We're not gonna do that. David Wilson's grabbing

17
00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:04,040
Speaker 1: my bow tie saying, no, you won't do that, sir.

18
00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:07,600
Speaker 1: Let's just look at foreign exchange for X. Brief brought

19
00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:10,640
Speaker 1: you by Interactive Broker's winner of f X Week's two

20
00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:14,039
Speaker 1: thousand and fifteen award for the Best Retail for X

21
00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:18,039
Speaker 1: training platform. Visit ib at I b k R dot

22
00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:23,920
Speaker 1: com slash four x ib kr dot com slash four

23
00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:27,280
Speaker 1: x Yen historic. What a move weaker yet in the

24
00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:32,119
Speaker 1: last hour one four euro one thirteen twenty eight dollar

25
00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:35,560
Speaker 1: weaker off d x Y. But Hans Rhodecker at Morgan

26
00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:39,759
Speaker 1: Stanley adamant that it's about dollar strength, euro strength, Yen

27
00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:43,840
Speaker 1: strength against the beleaguered world. I would know Russian ruble,

28
00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:47,720
Speaker 1: which has been strong and stable in the last hour,

29
00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:50,040
Speaker 1: has given that up. We've gone from seventy eight to

30
00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:54,000
Speaker 1: eighty point five one on Russian ruble. That bears watching

31
00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:58,120
Speaker 1: one with Mexican Paso nineteen point one two as well.

32
00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:01,160
Speaker 1: David Wilson, what's great about you undering into the studio

33
00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:03,720
Speaker 1: is you're looking at things. I'm not looking at Michael's

34
00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:06,920
Speaker 1: not looking at We've been euro euro euro banking. You're

35
00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:09,720
Speaker 1: looking at other banking. Well, sure, I mean you've got

36
00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:12,600
Speaker 1: to mean given the declines that we saw overnight in

37
00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:16,600
Speaker 1: European and Japanese banks, you're seeing losses in early trading

38
00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:20,560
Speaker 1: among the largest US banks, Bank of America and City Group,

39
00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:23,520
Speaker 1: both down about three and a half percent in early trading.

40
00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:27,639
Speaker 1: JP Morgan chased down three percent, Wells Fargo down two

41
00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:30,800
Speaker 1: and a half percent. You've also got energy stocks lower,

42
00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:33,040
Speaker 1: Crude oil following as much as four and a half

43
00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:36,560
Speaker 1: percent in New York trading and approaching last month s low.

44
00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:40,040
Speaker 1: So you've got Excellent Mobile down one and a half percent,

45
00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:44,200
Speaker 1: saying for Chevron, Marathon Oil down three percent. Gold mining

46
00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:47,400
Speaker 1: stocks so they're taking off as de precious metal heads

47
00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:51,680
Speaker 1: for its biggest gain since September twenty in New York trading.

48
00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:54,920
Speaker 1: Barrack Gold up eight percent, same for Newmont Mining and

49
00:02:55,000 --> 00:02:57,880
Speaker 1: Gold Corps up nine and a half percent at the moment.

50
00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:01,720
Speaker 1: Cisco Systems up a out six percent. The largest maker

51
00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:05,760
Speaker 1: of networking equipment unexpectedly forecast higher revenue for its fiscal

52
00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:08,919
Speaker 1: third quarter. Analysts were looking for Cisco sales to drop

53
00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:11,680
Speaker 1: one percent, according to the average estament in the Bloomberg survey.

54
00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:14,080
Speaker 1: Then you have my Land, the most active stock and

55
00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:17,560
Speaker 1: early trading down twelve and a half percent. The drug

56
00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:21,120
Speaker 1: maker agreed to choire Sweden's Meta for about seven point

57
00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:23,480
Speaker 1: two billion dollars in casting stock, the deal's value on

58
00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:26,440
Speaker 1: it for share basis exceeded the all time high for

59
00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:29,720
Speaker 1: metas shares UH count. Analysts can catch a tory wrote

60
00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:31,600
Speaker 1: a report that my lens agree and fits a pattern

61
00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:35,160
Speaker 1: of wealth destroying decisions, and you've got some wealth being

62
00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:37,560
Speaker 1: destroyed at Twitter as well. That's stock down five and

63
00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:40,760
Speaker 1: a half percent. The social media site unexpectedly failed to

64
00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:44,280
Speaker 1: add users last quarter, and Twitter's revenue forecast for this

65
00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:47,360
Speaker 1: quarter trailed analy assessments. There is a better story how

66
00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:50,360
Speaker 1: the online world, though, when you look at travel agencies

67
00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:54,880
Speaker 1: Expedients shares up nine percent UH their preferred gaze of earnings,

68
00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:56,800
Speaker 1: they're looking forward to rise this year by at least

69
00:03:56,840 --> 00:03:59,960
Speaker 1: thirty five percent and possibly as much as forty five percent.

70
00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:02,920
Speaker 1: Then you have Trip Advisor up ten a half percent.

71
00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:06,360
Speaker 1: Fourth quarter earnings and revenue beat analysts highest estimates, and

72
00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:08,800
Speaker 1: you can throw into that price line group up three

73
00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:12,480
Speaker 1: percent in early trading, Tesla Motors up five percent. Billionaire

74
00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:16,000
Speaker 1: Alon Musk Electric Carmaker said it expects deliveries worldwide to

75
00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:18,880
Speaker 1: rise as much as seventy eight percent this year, the

76
00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:22,880
Speaker 1: projected growth beating analysts estimates. O'relly Automotive up three percent.

77
00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:25,240
Speaker 1: The All the Parts retailer's fourth quarter earnings and sales

78
00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:29,120
Speaker 1: beat projections. O'Reilly raised a stock buyback program by seven

79
00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:33,240
Speaker 1: fifty million dollars and one more for you, International Flavors

80
00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:38,039
Speaker 1: and Fragrance absolutely. Last quarters profit and revenue came up

81
00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:40,880
Speaker 1: short of projections, and i f F is down twelve

82
00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:43,960
Speaker 1: percent in early trading. David Wilson, thank you so much

83
00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,640
Speaker 1: to the day, David Wilson. The equity markets negative thirty

84
00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:50,280
Speaker 1: one on the futures better than the negative forty earlier. Mike,

85
00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:52,800
Speaker 1: it would be rude if I brought in our next guest. Please.

86
00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:55,840
Speaker 1: Oh well, the only thing I can say is, uh,

87
00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:57,920
Speaker 1: we did it. No, we didn't do it, Libby, but

88
00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:02,479
Speaker 1: the Broncos did it. Share and revel in our in

89
00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:05,560
Speaker 1: our victory. Can't wait? What a what a game? And

90
00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:10,440
Speaker 1: this shows you that defense can actually win games, right absolutely. Oh.

91
00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:14,000
Speaker 1: By the way, we're talking with pimco's chief National Football

92
00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:18,480
Speaker 1: League analyst, Um Libby Cantl, who sometimes on the side

93
00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:22,599
Speaker 1: analyzes and coordinates the firm's response to public policy issues,

94
00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:25,400
Speaker 1: which I suppose probably more people want to hear about

95
00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:30,680
Speaker 1: than you and I reveling in But you what has

96
00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:35,840
Speaker 1: changed in your world after Iowa and after New Hampshire?

97
00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:40,919
Speaker 1: Does a Libby cantrel world change in Washington? Um, well,

98
00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:45,080
Speaker 1: you know, my pain, my life tamed after a Bronco victory. Um.

99
00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:46,919
Speaker 1: You know, perhaps I I you know, I think that

100
00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:50,200
Speaker 1: in terms of you know, Iowa and New Hampshire obviously

101
00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:54,039
Speaker 1: important clues, um, in terms of the kind of the

102
00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:56,800
Speaker 1: direction of these races. But really I think it's really

103
00:05:57,000 --> 00:06:00,280
Speaker 1: super important for everybody to contextualize these from a from

104
00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:03,359
Speaker 1: a delegate perspective. And that's what really matters, right you

105
00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:05,560
Speaker 1: for each party they're trying to get a simple majority

106
00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:08,799
Speaker 1: of the total delegates at stake, they really don't represent

107
00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:11,360
Speaker 1: very much, you know, one percent for Iowa, one percent

108
00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:14,160
Speaker 1: for New Hampshire. But we definitely learned some things, right

109
00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:17,479
Speaker 1: So on the New Hampshire side, Uh, we learned that

110
00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:22,200
Speaker 1: Trump actually can mobilize his supporters. That was a little

111
00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:26,200
Speaker 1: bit in question, and after Iowa, where he unexpectedly came

112
00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:28,960
Speaker 1: in second, we also learned in New Hampshire that the

113
00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:33,800
Speaker 1: debates actually matter, um in places where lots of voters

114
00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:38,159
Speaker 1: actually break at the last minute, broken and the last

115
00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:41,200
Speaker 1: week and and ended up voting for you know, instead

116
00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:45,000
Speaker 1: of Rubio voting for Kasik and Cruise and and Trump

117
00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:47,800
Speaker 1: and and Bush. Um. And then we also learned, you know,

118
00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:50,159
Speaker 1: from Hamps from the up side, that this is going

119
00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:53,520
Speaker 1: to be a much longer protracted race than I think

120
00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:57,560
Speaker 1: some people had hoped, because um, instead of gaining clarity

121
00:06:57,600 --> 00:06:59,760
Speaker 1: in terms of who the establishment candidate is going to be,

122
00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:03,280
Speaker 1: it really just muddled the muddled the things a little

123
00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:09,880
Speaker 1: bit more. Uh. It's so far, despite all the railing

124
00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:12,679
Speaker 1: against Wall Street that's been done on the campaign trail,

125
00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:18,080
Speaker 1: investors don't seem to be too upset about what's happening

126
00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:22,560
Speaker 1: in the political campaigns. So when do they start paying attention.

127
00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:25,080
Speaker 1: Is it just that at this point they can't believe

128
00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:29,560
Speaker 1: that those who are leading are leading. Yeah, that and

129
00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:33,240
Speaker 1: then also obviously just the exogenists events that are going on,

130
00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:35,680
Speaker 1: you know, around the globe, and also you know domestically,

131
00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,760
Speaker 1: and I would contend and we're we've been talking to

132
00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:41,160
Speaker 1: our our traitors a lot about this. Is that the

133
00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:45,440
Speaker 1: longer the primary races go on on each side, on

134
00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:48,880
Speaker 1: the Democratic and Republican side, And it looks like because

135
00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:52,040
Speaker 1: of the way that the delegates are apportioned because again

136
00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:55,160
Speaker 1: that the the establishment candidate hasn't been determined on the

137
00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:59,800
Speaker 1: Republican side, that the laws races go. The more people,

138
00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:03,320
Speaker 1: the more the candidates are forced to make compromises with

139
00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:06,840
Speaker 1: the very extremes of their party, and they're they're you know,

140
00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:09,160
Speaker 1: they're much more likely to say things that they may

141
00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:12,320
Speaker 1: not necessarily believe, but then they're held accountable to when

142
00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:15,120
Speaker 1: they come into office. And and that's bad, you know,

143
00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:19,400
Speaker 1: from a from a just a prognosis of more compromise

144
00:08:19,440 --> 00:08:23,080
Speaker 1: in seventeen when people have to make um, you know,

145
00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:25,840
Speaker 1: their promises and ingratiate themselves with the extremes of their

146
00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:28,520
Speaker 1: party in order to get the nomination, find it more

147
00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:31,040
Speaker 1: difficult to pivot to the center. And then when they

148
00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,720
Speaker 1: actually have to govern, you know, find it harder than

149
00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:37,360
Speaker 1: to to compromise and reach across the aisle. Is there

150
00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:43,120
Speaker 1: gerrymandering still among the congressional districts and is there almost

151
00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:49,480
Speaker 1: state jerrymandering that goes on in your Washington Well, certainly

152
00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:52,199
Speaker 1: on the you know, fairly in the House of Representatives. Um,

153
00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:55,880
Speaker 1: just for for listeners, um, you know, redistricting happens every

154
00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:59,400
Speaker 1: every ten years. It's based on the national sentence. The

155
00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:02,320
Speaker 1: last time of the census was done, it was and

156
00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:05,280
Speaker 1: at that point, state officials on both sides of the aisle,

157
00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:08,120
Speaker 1: but especially among Republicans, because they happen to control more

158
00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:12,400
Speaker 1: state legislatures and governorships, UM, they use the opportunity to

159
00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:16,120
Speaker 1: really consolidate support and make the districts you know, much

160
00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:19,719
Speaker 1: redder and on the Democratic fact so yeah, so, so

161
00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:24,520
Speaker 1: the punchline is, yeah, many more fewer swing districts UM

162
00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:27,560
Speaker 1: within the House of Representatives, which really means that, you know,

163
00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:32,200
Speaker 1: barring something pretty extraordinary happening, it looks like the House

164
00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:36,400
Speaker 1: will stay Republican um almost almost without you know, almost.

165
00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:39,240
Speaker 1: That's a great civics lesson. But then can you carry

166
00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:42,640
Speaker 1: elements or tones of that over to the Senate where

167
00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:46,040
Speaker 1: we wouldn't expect to see it? Yeah, I mean, so

168
00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:49,319
Speaker 1: the Senate UM. The Senate is quite different. Obviously, those

169
00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:53,880
Speaker 1: are statewide races versus can can you know, districtwide UM

170
00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:57,080
Speaker 1: races you know in the Senate. This the dynamics this

171
00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:00,719
Speaker 1: year is a little bit reversed from twenty fourteen. So

172
00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:05,480
Speaker 1: going into Democrats had the majority, they were defending the

173
00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:09,600
Speaker 1: majority of seats up for re election. They ended up

174
00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:13,079
Speaker 1: losing the Senate to the Republicans. This election cycle um

175
00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:16,160
Speaker 1: is sort of the same Diana for Republicans. The Republicans

176
00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:18,480
Speaker 1: are defending twenty four of the thirty four states that

177
00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:21,280
Speaker 1: are set se that are up for re election, and

178
00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:25,200
Speaker 1: of the twenty four, eight have gone for President Obama

179
00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:27,760
Speaker 1: or eight are in states that have gone for President

180
00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:30,319
Speaker 1: Obama and you know the past two election cycles. So

181
00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:34,000
Speaker 1: it makes the Senate a lot more vulnerable for Republicans.

182
00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:36,079
Speaker 1: That The interesting thing is if you look at where

183
00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:39,360
Speaker 1: those Senate races are, they happen to be in the

184
00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:43,080
Speaker 1: swing states, right, happen to be in New Hampsters Living.

185
00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:46,040
Speaker 1: We gotta leave it their livy cantrol with Pimco whatever

186
00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:52,760
Speaker 1: on again, just talk Denver Broncos football. We need to

187
00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:54,600
Speaker 1: check out with Michael Barr and get the latest world

188
00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:57,920
Speaker 1: and national news. Michael, Mike jam thank you very much.

189
00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:00,719
Speaker 1: The last four people to occupy on national the Wildlife

190
00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:03,840
Speaker 1: Refuge in eastern Oregon, planned to give themselves up to

191
00:11:03,880 --> 00:11:07,559
Speaker 1: authorities this morning. Last night, law enforcement officers surrounded the

192
00:11:07,640 --> 00:11:11,000
Speaker 1: National Wildlife Refuge in a tent standoff. A spokesman for

193
00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:14,920
Speaker 1: the centers for Disease Control and Prevention says two US

194
00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:18,160
Speaker 1: women who contracted the ZEKEA virus while traveling out of

195
00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:22,600
Speaker 1: the country miscarried after returning home. According to The Washington Post,

196
00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:25,640
Speaker 1: the virus was found in their placentas. Trial for a

197
00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:28,240
Speaker 1: ninety four year old former SS sergeant began today in

198
00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:31,120
Speaker 1: Western Germany. Ryan Old Henning has been charged on a

199
00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:35,160
Speaker 1: hundred seventy thousand counts of accessory to murder. Reinhold is

200
00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:39,000
Speaker 1: charged of serving as a guard in the Auschwitz death camp.

201
00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:41,679
Speaker 1: Global News twenty four hours a day, powered by our

202
00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:44,600
Speaker 1: twenty four hundred journalists more than a hundred fifty news

203
00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:47,720
Speaker 1: bureaus from around the world. Michael bar Time, Michael, thanks

204
00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:49,480
Speaker 1: so much. It's a better tape. In the last hour

205
00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:52,480
Speaker 1: still negative thirty down, futures negative to sixty down to

206
00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:57,040
Speaker 1: fifteen thousand, six hundred five West Texas eight does twenty

207
00:11:57,040 --> 00:11:59,600
Speaker 1: cents better than the last hour. Stay with us with

208
00:11:59,640 --> 00:12:07,240
Speaker 1: more day to checks. Bloomberg Surveillance Market Drivers brought to

209
00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:09,040
Speaker 1: you by your Mercedes Benz tri State dealer. When it

210
00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:11,160
Speaker 1: comes to winter elements, put your best four wheels forward

211
00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:13,520
Speaker 1: with Mercedes Benz Formatic all wheel Drive is it your

212
00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:21,400
Speaker 1: Mercedes Benz Tri State dealer for a test drive. Today.

213
00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:26,000
Speaker 1: Global Business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

214
00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:29,120
Speaker 1: dot com, the radio plus mobile lap and on your radio.

215
00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:33,240
Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karin Moscow.

216
00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:36,280
Speaker 1: US stock index future is lower, with stocks poised for

217
00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:39,520
Speaker 1: their longest losing streak this year as investors shaun to

218
00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:42,920
Speaker 1: risk worldwide amid concern that central bank efforts to support

219
00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:45,800
Speaker 1: growth are losing their potency. And we check the markets

220
00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:48,880
Speaker 1: every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg SNP.

221
00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:51,800
Speaker 1: EVENI futures are down thirty points down, EMUNI futures down

222
00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:55,120
Speaker 1: two hundred sixty and NASDAC EMNI futures down sixty. The

223
00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:57,880
Speaker 1: decks in Germany is down two point one per cent

224
00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:01,760
Speaker 1: ten year Treasury seconds, the yield one point five nine

225
00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:04,520
Speaker 1: percent yield on the two year point six two percent.

226
00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:07,240
Speaker 1: NIMEX scrude oil down to and a half percent, or

227
00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:11,040
Speaker 1: seventy cents seventies seven of barrel. Comex gold is up

228
00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:13,800
Speaker 1: three point nine percent or forty six dollars thirty cents

229
00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:17,480
Speaker 1: to twelve forty ounce. The euro A dollar thirteen thirty

230
00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:20,760
Speaker 1: two the en one twelve point four six and that's

231
00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:24,560
Speaker 1: a Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Mike Karen, thank you

232
00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:26,640
Speaker 1: so much. You get a better tape. In the last hour,

233
00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:29,439
Speaker 1: one point six zero on the ten year yield of

234
00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:32,600
Speaker 1: the two year note point five nine is out to

235
00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:35,800
Speaker 1: a point six two, So sigh relief in the last

236
00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:39,760
Speaker 1: our Bloomberg surveillance. Much of my c i T, from

237
00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:45,959
Speaker 1: transportation to healthcare to manufacturing. C i T offers commercial, ending, leasing,

238
00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:50,920
Speaker 1: and treasury management services for small and middle market businesses.

239
00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:55,280
Speaker 1: Learn more at c i T dot com put knowledge

240
00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:59,120
Speaker 1: to work at c i T dot com. We thank

241
00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:02,360
Speaker 1: them for their perspective as we do. The former chairman

242
00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:06,840
Speaker 1: of the SEC policy advisor, I can't remember who Bloomberg

243
00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:09,640
Speaker 1: LP board member Arthur Levitt, policy advisor to the New

244
00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:13,960
Speaker 1: York John, Yeah, I forgot about that, Arthur. There's no

245
00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:17,440
Speaker 1: there's no change. It's like Wall Street in Main Street.

246
00:14:17,920 --> 00:14:20,520
Speaker 1: The gap is as wide as it wasn't Speaker Pelosi

247
00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:24,760
Speaker 1: was talking about this issue or is it really not?

248
00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:27,800
Speaker 1: Where are we on the gap between Wall Street and

249
00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:32,480
Speaker 1: Main Street? I think it's more polarized than ever in

250
00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:38,720
Speaker 1: this political season with the two Democratic candidates arguing over

251
00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:44,200
Speaker 1: whether Mrs Clinton has taken so much money from Wall

252
00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:48,320
Speaker 1: Street she simply can't protect investor interests. So I think

253
00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:55,040
Speaker 1: the environment is probably as poisonous as ever. Hammering Wall

254
00:14:55,080 --> 00:15:01,720
Speaker 1: Street has become the political act of day to advance

255
00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:05,200
Speaker 1: the interests of whoever's was it always there for those

256
00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:08,160
Speaker 1: of us younger? Is this a new phenomenon? Ors Arthur

257
00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:12,440
Speaker 1: Levitt lived with this. I think it's a phenomenon that

258
00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:18,600
Speaker 1: goes back all the way for almost hundreds of years.

259
00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:22,760
Speaker 1: I can remember growing up in Brooklyn, my grandfather, who

260
00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:28,280
Speaker 1: was an immigrant, railing against two things, the politicians and

261
00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:34,680
Speaker 1: Wall Street. Wall Street was a convenient whipping boy for

262
00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:42,600
Speaker 1: mostly the lower economic levels of our society. I don't

263
00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:45,760
Speaker 1: think that has changed. I think it's polarized even more

264
00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:50,520
Speaker 1: by the nature of political rhetoric which targets people who

265
00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:53,360
Speaker 1: have received the benefits of Wall Streets, such as the

266
00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:59,000
Speaker 1: banks and the individual brokerage firms have become front and

267
00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:05,480
Speaker 1: center in political diatribe. Speaking of political diatribes, you note

268
00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:09,480
Speaker 1: this morning that Senator Elizabeth Warren and Representative Elijah Cummings

269
00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:15,840
Speaker 1: have inserted themselves into this debate about the financial responsibility

270
00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:20,760
Speaker 1: standards that Labor Department is setting for advisors. Yes, what

271
00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:25,280
Speaker 1: they are what Cummings and Warren are saying today. They're

272
00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:35,360
Speaker 1: putting forth arguments written by various financial firms to their clients,

273
00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:41,160
Speaker 1: saying that the Department of Labor rule calling for uh

274
00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:46,200
Speaker 1: fiduciary standard really isn't going to hurt their clients very much.

275
00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:50,560
Speaker 1: I think it's kind of a specious argument, because that's

276
00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:55,800
Speaker 1: natural for any dealings with a customer. Obviously you're going

277
00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:59,480
Speaker 1: to say to the customer, yes, we didn't want this rule,

278
00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:02,920
Speaker 1: but since we have it, we don't feel it's going

279
00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:06,040
Speaker 1: to hurt you that much. I think Warren and Cummings

280
00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:09,639
Speaker 1: are trying to emphasize what they regard to be the

281
00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:14,560
Speaker 1: hypocrisy of Wall Street. I think that's somewhat overstated. I

282
00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:19,480
Speaker 1: think that's a natural transaction between a deal or and

283
00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:24,320
Speaker 1: a customer, and it's really kind of naive to expect

284
00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:26,480
Speaker 1: that it would be anything but that they didn't like

285
00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:29,680
Speaker 1: the rule, but since they have it, they'll live with it. Arthur,

286
00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:31,359
Speaker 1: I want to rip up the script here, No, not

287
00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:35,520
Speaker 1: Giants football, but Hillary football. You've been doing this for years.

288
00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:42,640
Speaker 1: What is your advice to Secretary Clinton two repair her

289
00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:48,280
Speaker 1: bond with her party, and I respectfully suggest your party, Uh,

290
00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:52,600
Speaker 1: given the tilt to Wall Street that she had in

291
00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:57,119
Speaker 1: recent years. What's the Levit game plan for Hillary Clinton.

292
00:17:57,920 --> 00:18:06,600
Speaker 1: I don't think she I oh lost, Oh my god.

293
00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:09,640
Speaker 1: Let's see if we can get Arthur back and let

294
00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:13,400
Speaker 1: us let us note a major major failure on the

295
00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:17,240
Speaker 1: part of the surveillance staff. They forgot to mail your

296
00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:23,600
Speaker 1: application to be I am if managing director. Guards single handedly,

297
00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:27,880
Speaker 1: single handily ripped it up, and we can pass along

298
00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:31,920
Speaker 1: this headline that Christine Legard is now unopposed for another term. Okay,

299
00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:33,919
Speaker 1: we've got Arthur love it back again. Arthur. What's your

300
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:37,760
Speaker 1: advice to Secretary Clinton. I think she's got to stay

301
00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:42,840
Speaker 1: the course, not apologize for her relations with Wall Street.

302
00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:46,199
Speaker 1: She was a senator from New York. She did receive

303
00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:51,800
Speaker 1: political contributions, as did every other Democratic candidate from Wall Street.

304
00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:56,359
Speaker 1: I simply think she should not apologize, nor should she

305
00:18:56,440 --> 00:19:00,520
Speaker 1: turn against Wall Street reject contribution. That would be the

306
00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:04,520
Speaker 1: worst thing in the world that you could do. Stay

307
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:08,639
Speaker 1: the course. Okay, Arthur Levin, thank you so much, greatly

308
00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,119
Speaker 1: appreciate it. He has a former chairman of the sec

309
00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:15,359
Speaker 1: and of course working around in in the Democratic Party

310
00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:20,320
Speaker 1: for many decades. Um, Mike, it's a better tape. I mean,

311
00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:22,360
Speaker 1: I think we need you know, I get a lot

312
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:24,840
Speaker 1: of grief that it's gloomy and gloomberg and all that,

313
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,919
Speaker 1: but we do like to show constructive vectors when they occur.

314
00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:35,639
Speaker 1: Right now, Well, okay, Um, the low on the S

315
00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:38,720
Speaker 1: and P futures was eighteen o two. We're at eighteen fifteen,

316
00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:42,240
Speaker 1: so it is better, but we're still down by almost

317
00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:46,360
Speaker 1: two percent in the future. So I'm lennas see what happens.

318
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:48,680
Speaker 1: And we have come off a bit on the tenure.

319
00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:50,359
Speaker 1: Note you know one point five nine. We were as

320
00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:52,879
Speaker 1: low as one point five two at one point, So

321
00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:57,680
Speaker 1: I'll take your point. Yeah, we'll watch the opening coming

322
00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:00,639
Speaker 1: up in just a few moments here on Bloomberg Surveillance.

323
00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:08,240
Speaker 1: We're cutting you down to that opening bell. Brought to

324
00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 1: you by the refined Jeep Grand Cherokee Overland. It continues

325
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:13,560
Speaker 1: to raise the bar with its luxurious interior and legendary

326
00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:16,040
Speaker 1: four by four capability. Drive one at your local Jeep

327
00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:24,160
Speaker 1: dealer today. JEEF the official vehicle of Kellington Resort, broadcasting

328
00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:27,960
Speaker 1: live to New York Gloomberg eleventh, to Washington d C

329
00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:33,440
Speaker 1: Bloomberg one, to Boston Bloomberg Well Honors to San Francisco Bloomberg.

330
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:37,920
Speaker 1: To the Country series SAM Channel one ninety and around

331
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:41,560
Speaker 1: the globe, the Bloomberg Radio Plus happened. Bloomberg dot Com.

332
00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:44,800
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance and that was the sound of

333
00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:47,439
Speaker 1: the opening bell. Good morning. I'm Karen Moscow along with

334
00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:49,960
Speaker 1: Tom Keene and Michael McKee, and the opening bell is

335
00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,879
Speaker 1: brought to you by s E. I imagine your asset

336
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:57,360
Speaker 1: management firms operational infrastructure as a competitive advantage. Let see

337
00:20:57,400 --> 00:20:59,480
Speaker 1: I show you how at se i C dot com

338
00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,879
Speaker 1: slash imagine and the S and P five hundred lower

339
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:05,399
Speaker 1: at the open, down nine tenths percent or sixteen points

340
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:08,520
Speaker 1: to eighteen thirty five down. Joe's Industrial Average down nine

341
00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 1: ten percent or a hundred thirty nine points to fifteen thousand,

342
00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:14,080
Speaker 1: seven hundred seventy four. The nasdacts down one and a

343
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:18,160
Speaker 1: half percent or sixty three points to twenty Tenure Treasury

344
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 1: up twenty one thirty seconds, the yield one point five

345
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:23,000
Speaker 1: nine percent yield on the two year point six two

346
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:26,200
Speaker 1: percent nine x screwed oil down two percent, down fifty

347
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:30,159
Speaker 1: five cents to ninety one a barrel. Comex gold is

348
00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,840
Speaker 1: up three point nine percent, or forty six dollars eighty

349
00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 1: cents at twelve forty one twenty announced the euro A

350
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:39,360
Speaker 1: dollar thirteen fifty three, the en one twelve point three one.

351
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,600
Speaker 1: Tom and Mike Karen, thanks so much. I will look

352
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:44,480
Speaker 1: for the first print in the VIX twenty six point

353
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 1: two nine. Closing, James Steele is someone we love speaking

354
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 1: to on gold. He looks at fundamentals, he looks at supply,

355
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,879
Speaker 1: he looks at a growing demand in Asia, and he

356
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 1: has been optimistic James. Technically, I just worked up a chart,

357
00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 1: it's called a point and figure chart which from January

358
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:07,679
Speaker 1: it's seventeen eighty an ounce has been seuth in bear market.

359
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:14,200
Speaker 1: To your great credit, we've broken through the huge resistance

360
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:18,119
Speaker 1: of the last three years. What's it mean? Well, I

361
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,439
Speaker 1: think it's a good morning, Tom, and I think I

362
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:25,399
Speaker 1: think it's a reflection of risk off investor mentality the

363
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 1: h This is where gold does shine when you uh

364
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 1: when there's uncertainty in the corrency markets, particularly also inequities,

365
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:40,159
Speaker 1: and gold has been the recipient of of of at

366
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:43,200
Speaker 1: least a portion of this, of this outflow. And and

367
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:46,320
Speaker 1: what what I think is interesting is that unlike previous

368
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 1: periods of risk off last year or say the year before,

369
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:53,200
Speaker 1: when money went into treasuries, depressed fields but also boosted

370
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 1: the dollar. Uh, and that weight on gold, this time, Uh,

371
00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 1: it's not having that effect on the dollar, and rather

372
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:05,040
Speaker 1: gold is the the principal recipient. The move today is

373
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 1: so abrupt and so big, I'm wondering if it can

374
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 1: be sustained or if there's something else behind it. Well,

375
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 1: you do have to ask yourself in a you know,

376
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 1: gold is a relatively small market compared to the giant

377
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:24,240
Speaker 1: for in exchange and then global fixed income markets. This

378
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 1: this is a as you pointed out rightly, a very

379
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,920
Speaker 1: steep a rally, and uh, you know, just and that's

380
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 1: that that will provoke a fundamental response. Already we're seeing

381
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:39,440
Speaker 1: a very steep discount in India to world gold prices,

382
00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 1: and that would imply that import demand there would be

383
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 1: very weak. So uh that in fact could eventually begin

384
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:50,840
Speaker 1: to trigger some kind of a correction. And this goes

385
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 1: to the heart of the matter. And I don't want

386
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:54,199
Speaker 1: you to do this technically, James, because I know you

387
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:59,240
Speaker 1: don't do that state the case for a fundamental return

388
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,919
Speaker 1: to old optimism. Can you make that today? Or is

389
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 1: that premature? No? I think and and and and we've

390
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 1: been supportive on on on a on a basic fundamental front,

391
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:14,879
Speaker 1: I mean taking the non monetary, non investment side. For

392
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 1: the moment um, increasing income in in in in the

393
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 1: emerging world is friendly towards gold because of the predilection

394
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:27,199
Speaker 1: towards owning bullion. Uh. If you couple that with a

395
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:31,920
Speaker 1: static or or just beginning to decline gold mine production

396
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 1: and lower recycling than these, if you were to look

397
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 1: at it like a copper or or or or any

398
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 1: other non monetary commodity, then you know the argument would

399
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 1: be for modest gains in gold. And where we get

400
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:48,919
Speaker 1: these very strong rallies is when the investment case for

401
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 1: gold also couples along with that. And I think that's

402
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 1: what we're seeing now. What's the investment case that is

403
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 1: a haven? Simply it's it's a safe haven and it's

404
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 1: a flight to quality. Yes, um which is uh why

405
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 1: it rallied significantly during the last crisis. Um Or, I'm

406
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:10,199
Speaker 1: not saying we're in a crisis now, but in in

407
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 1: the most recent crisis. The trajectory was very high between

408
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight two thousand nine when the financial crisis,

409
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 1: the mortgage crisis morphed into a financial one and then

410
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 1: eventually became a sovereign risk crisis for some countries, and

411
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:28,919
Speaker 1: and that in turn really bolstered to go That's what

412
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,960
Speaker 1: sent But I want to pinion down in this James,

413
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,639
Speaker 1: We've got too much respect for your fundamental work. The

414
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:36,720
Speaker 1: leg up now that we're seeing because of fear in

415
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 1: the market down negative to oil pot nine zero and

416
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:44,439
Speaker 1: the dollar weeker. The leg up that we're seeing now

417
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 1: is because of fear in the market. Can you underpin

418
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:52,480
Speaker 1: that with your optimism on demand for gold in emerging markets?

419
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:58,119
Speaker 1: Or can you just not call a bull market in gold? Oh? Well,

420
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 1: I think that uh uh, we've as you pointed out,

421
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:05,080
Speaker 1: we've been in a retrenched bear market for for a

422
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 1: long time, and we're positive on the gold market. We

423
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 1: we we are bullish without necessarily calling for a raging

424
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 1: uh gold bull market. And yes, the the the fundamentals

425
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:20,879
Speaker 1: you know are are definitely supportive and at least for

426
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,199
Speaker 1: the moment when as long as this turmoil is on,

427
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 1: uh so so is the investment case. So now what

428
00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:29,880
Speaker 1: I would what I would caution is that in these

429
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:34,120
Speaker 1: rapid run ups, as with all markets, one may see

430
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:37,440
Speaker 1: some profit taking when one could also see a step

431
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 1: near term retrenchment UH in fundamental demand. You know that

432
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 1: there's going to be sticker shock for ordinary gold buyers

433
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:48,880
Speaker 1: in India, China, Indonesia, in places like that. That's going

434
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 1: to undercut temporarily the physical the physical demand, which could

435
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:57,439
Speaker 1: act to restrain which which could act to restrain the market.

436
00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:01,440
Speaker 1: But those things tend to move less than the investment

437
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 1: flows which are dominating right now that both those points

438
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 1: are true, And I just wonder, when you have a

439
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 1: reaction as you have now Haven reaction, aren't you just

440
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 1: sort of crossing your fingers and hoping that the price

441
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 1: will continue to go up if you're buying into it,

442
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 1: Because if something, if Janet Yellen says something today that

443
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 1: turns people's views, we could go right back down again. Sure,

444
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:29,119
Speaker 1: and that would be the same with UH, you know,

445
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:33,159
Speaker 1: bonds or UH for x so, But are you more

446
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 1: vulnerable divorced from UH market volatility and the vagaries of

447
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 1: the market the way anything else is. I'm just wondering,

448
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 1: as a haven trade. Is it more vulnerable than perhaps

449
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,600
Speaker 1: some other asset classes. Well, it is the classic safe

450
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 1: haven trade. Um it is, you know, because it is

451
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 1: the world's supreme hard asset. And uh for for many reasons,

452
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 1: it's more liquid than real estate object, etcetera. And and

453
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:03,399
Speaker 1: and so therefore, Um, when you get periods of stability,

454
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:06,960
Speaker 1: when we when we move from periods of of uncertainty

455
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:10,440
Speaker 1: back to stability, gold is a casualty without doubt. That

456
00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:13,240
Speaker 1: that that that is absolutely true. And if one could

457
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:16,399
Speaker 1: make a wave, a magic wand and restore stability, and

458
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 1: we would know if we knew that the markets would

459
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 1: be stable going forth, that would deprived gold of a

460
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 1: lot of the oxygen that it's received recently. Yes, only

461
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:29,919
Speaker 1: about thirty seconds or so left. Who's buying? Is this

462
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 1: the pros? Are? Are we seeing e t F flows

463
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,160
Speaker 1: the average person getting into gold right now? Well, it's

464
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 1: interesting we saw e t F down sharply last year,

465
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 1: and so far this year, of all the outflows and

466
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 1: the e t s have been recovered, and in the

467
00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 1: first six weeks of this year alone, it strikes me

468
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 1: that we're seeing institutions back in But it does look

469
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 1: rather broad based. But we would need to see the

470
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 1: market more sustained to get a larger retail element. James

471
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 1: thinking so much. James, isn't the HSBC on gold. I'm

472
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 1: gonna call it a measured market matching futures action before

473
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 1: negative to thirty seven fifteen thousand, six seventy nine print

474
00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:13,040
Speaker 1: of the VIX two point three eight figures two point

475
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 1: three eight points twenty eight point six seven on the

476
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:21,480
Speaker 1: Vicks not out past that thirty level which captures the sweat.

477
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 1: Sometime we're not there. Maybe we were there two hours ago,

478
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 1: We're not there now, twenty six seventy three on West

479
00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 1: Texas Intermediate. The YEN one twelve twenty nine not as

480
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 1: strong as earlier. I'm not a check in with Michael R.

481
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:41,800
Speaker 1: Get the latest world of national headlines. Mike Tom, thank

482
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:44,640
Speaker 1: you very much. President Obama will be in California today

483
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 1: to raise money for Democrats. The President will attend four

484
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 1: fund raisers to in Los Angeles, hand too in Silicon Valley.

485
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders has raised more than seven million dollars since

486
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 1: his win in the New Hampshire Democratic primary. Sanders made

487
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 1: an appearance last night on CBS is The Late Show

488
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 1: with Stephen Gilbert what the goal of this campaign is about.

489
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 1: It is the look at the civil rights movement, look

490
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 1: at the women's movement, look at the game movement. Understand

491
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 1: that when people come together, we can accomplish enormous things.

492
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 1: But I think what people are saying enough is enough.

493
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 1: We need fundamental changes in our political system and our

494
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 1: economic system. Republican presidential candidates have headed to South Carolina,

495
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 1: stateholds its Republican primary on February. It is an open primary.

496
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:34,959
Speaker 1: It means Republicans, Democrats, and independents can vote in it.

497
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:38,360
Speaker 1: South Korean officials says North Korean leader Kim John Un

498
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 1: has executed as military chief for corruption and other charges.

499
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 1: It comes as North Korea has ordered its army to

500
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 1: occupy an industrial park jointly run with South Korea. North

501
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 1: Korea will kick out the remaining South Korean nationals in

502
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 1: the park. It's the latest chapter in rising tensions after

503
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 1: Beyong Yang conducted a rocket launched Sunday Global News twenty

504
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 1: four hours a day, powered by our journalists more than

505
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 1: a hundred fifty news bureaus from around the world. How

506
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:07,760
Speaker 1: Michael bar Mchael Barr, thanks so mar It's a ten

507
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:12,800
Speaker 1: or year one year point six three percent. Janet Yellen

508
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 1: with interesting answers to senators questions at ten a m.

509
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 1: This morning. Stay with us. We have not talked with

510
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 1: Peter Elliott in quite a while because he's been on

511
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 1: the road. A report from the road, Peter Elliott of

512
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 1: dyn Go coming up on Bloomberg Surveillance Global business news

513
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,800
Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot com, the

514
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 1: radio plus mobile app and on your radio. This is

515
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:48,720
Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm kinda in Moscow. This

516
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 1: update brought to you by Eisener Amper. Does your account

517
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:53,960
Speaker 1: do more or your accountant do more than crunch numbers?

518
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 1: Amper understands them more their clients know, the better the outcome,

519
00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 1: and that's why they've created as tax guide free downloaded

520
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 1: Eisner Amper dot Com slash strategies. U stocks are falling

521
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 1: with the NASDAC composite closing in on a bear market

522
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 1: as investors son risk worldwide AMID concerned that central bank

523
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 1: efforts to support growth are losing their potency. We check

524
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:16,680
Speaker 1: the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on

525
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 1: Bloomberg SNP five hundred down one point three percent or

526
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 1: twenty three points to eighteen twenty seven. Dow Jones Industrial

527
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 1: Average down one point four percent or two hundred twenty

528
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 1: points to fifteen thousand, six hundred ninety four. NASDAC down

529
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 1: one point one percent or forty five points to forty

530
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 1: two thirty eight ten. Your Treasury up twelve thirty seconds

531
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 1: the yield one point six two percent. Nimax screwed oil

532
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:39,280
Speaker 1: down one point three percent or thirty six cents to

533
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 1: twenty seven O eight a barrel. Comacs Gold up three

534
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 1: point three percent or thirty nine dollars seventy cents to

535
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 1: twelve thirty four thirty in ounce the euro A dollar

536
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:51,160
Speaker 1: thirteen twenty seven. The N one twelve point four three

537
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 1: mile in the worst performer in the SNP five hundred today.

538
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 1: It is down at fifteen point four percent after it

539
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 1: agreed to buy Meta for about seven point two billion

540
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 1: dollars in cash and stock. And consumer comfort in the

541
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 1: first week of February, holding close to a three month

542
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:09,240
Speaker 1: high forty four point five reading in the Bloomberg Consumer

543
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 1: Comfort Index during the period ending February seven, little change

544
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:15,360
Speaker 1: from the forty four point to the prior week. That's

545
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:20,240
Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Business Flash, Tom and Mike, thank you very much.

546
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,760
Speaker 1: Karen Moscow, Well, we have an unfamiliar face, a familiar

547
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 1: unfamiliar face in the studio, somebody we haven't seen for

548
00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 1: a while because he's been sampling the cuisines of the world.

549
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:36,960
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Reserve editor and dying go officionado expert, et cetera.

550
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 1: Peter Elliott, he's back with us. Sometimes you always say

551
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 1: that as if, as if you all haven't been in

552
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:46,880
Speaker 1: places like Davos. You know, it's okay, you all have not.

553
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 1: Tom Keans, I was holding down the fort here and uh,

554
00:33:52,560 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 1: dining at the Bloomberg's neck machine. So very good. Well

555
00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:00,160
Speaker 1: we are. I'm definitely in New York and we're a

556
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 1: very interesting time. Well we are. We are desperately in

557
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 1: need of an update on a terrific new restaurants, and

558
00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 1: there are several of them opening now. I'm going to

559
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:12,360
Speaker 1: start with the one I want to know about, because

560
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 1: all politics being local. Uh, my neighborhood is welcoming Salvation Burger,

561
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 1: which is um from April Bloomfield and Ken Friedman. People

562
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:23,320
Speaker 1: may not know the names, but they know their restaurant,

563
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 1: the Spotted Pig. They know their restaurant, The Spotted Pig,

564
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 1: which they also share with Mario Batali, who will um

565
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 1: get to hopefully in this segment. Um. Yes, um Ken

566
00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:37,399
Speaker 1: Friedman and April Bloomfield also have the Breslin. Uh. They

567
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 1: also have the John Dorry and the Rusty Not. So

568
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:43,440
Speaker 1: there's they are a well established kind of mini empire

569
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:47,839
Speaker 1: that is uh taken over the city in a very

570
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:51,279
Speaker 1: surreptitious way, I would say, or maybe the right word

571
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 1: is a quiet uh takeover of the city. Uh. They

572
00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:58,799
Speaker 1: went from that to Salvation Taco and then up to

573
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 1: an area which is well above their usual stomping grounds,

574
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 1: um in the East fifties, east Midtown, so that they

575
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 1: are one with the burger craze. And that comes from April,

576
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 1: who's the chef of this this partnership, um making a

577
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 1: sensational lamb burger at the Breslin and and really spinning

578
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:19,360
Speaker 1: it off into a business. So UM, I am looking

579
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 1: forward open Wednesday night. I'm looking forward to trying my

580
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 1: first Salvation Burger and um and um off we go. Well,

581
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 1: let me ask you a question. There is a conventional

582
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:38,799
Speaker 1: wisdom is there can be restaurant locations that are cursed yes,

583
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 1: and I know where this restaurant, Salvation Burger is opening,

584
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 1: and it has been many things over the years, and

585
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:52,759
Speaker 1: no restaurant has succeeded. There is that just an urban myth?

586
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:55,920
Speaker 1: Um it is. It is neither an urban myth and

587
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:59,759
Speaker 1: you are both correct and and incorrect at the same

588
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 1: time time. There are there are plenty of spaces that

589
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:05,040
Speaker 1: have been cursed that just have the right ideas. By

590
00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 1: standard definition of market capitalism, you know, as long as

591
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:10,440
Speaker 1: you make the right the right product for the right market,

592
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:13,160
Speaker 1: somebody will beat the path to your door. And certainly,

593
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 1: if I was going to put my money on everybody

594
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:18,920
Speaker 1: forgetting uh that that that space has been cursed, I

595
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:21,640
Speaker 1: would give it to April Bloomfield and again Friedman in

596
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:23,959
Speaker 1: a in a in a world where you know, people

597
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:26,319
Speaker 1: will line up for burgers. And one of the great

598
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:28,279
Speaker 1: stories of New York and for all of you worldwide,

599
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 1: it's one of the oddest plants in New York is

600
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 1: on the West side of New York, down down down.

601
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 1: It's called the Maritime Hotel, which has portholes. It had

602
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 1: something to do with the Union and ports and shipping

603
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 1: years ago. It's gone under about four times and now

604
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 1: it's a new reado due of two guys that really

605
00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:48,839
Speaker 1: know what they're doing making a three hundred seat ginormous

606
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:53,240
Speaker 1: bar Italian experience. And the key thing is these guys

607
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:56,840
Speaker 1: know what they're doing. The risk of that physical space

608
00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:59,279
Speaker 1: a common a common theme we have going on here.

609
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 1: So here's Ken Reedman, a businessman and h skilled operator,

610
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 1: and Abel Bloomfield, a skilt and talented chef uptown up

611
00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:11,399
Speaker 1: doing uptown. They also have Downtown Um very much like

612
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 1: Mario Batali chef Joe bastianae operator. These are people who

613
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 1: really know the industry and also mike to the same

614
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 1: To your point, Um, the space where Las Arena is

615
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:25,280
Speaker 1: is opening tonight at the Maritime Motel is equally cursed,

616
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:29,400
Speaker 1: has had equally uh stupid restaurants through it over the

617
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:32,719
Speaker 1: course of this revival, from its union days through to

618
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 1: it being a hotel. Nothing nobody can seem to make

619
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:38,360
Speaker 1: that space work again if I thought there was anybody

620
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 1: who could make that work. You know what I think

621
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 1: is interesting about what what Joe and Mario Batali are

622
00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 1: doing at this space is that they're taking a page

623
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:49,719
Speaker 1: from the Ken Keith McNally playbook. So I mean if

624
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 1: there's a around the world. As I travel, I always say,

625
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:54,719
Speaker 1: if you can do whatever it is that Keith McNally

626
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 1: does at Baltazar, you have a winner. So you know,

627
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:01,319
Speaker 1: Maritali famous for Russian called Babo, which is tiny, still

628
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 1: hard to get into. But you know, here's a three

629
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:07,520
Speaker 1: hundred seat restaurant where the price point is actually coming

630
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:10,719
Speaker 1: in low. And I predict you heard it here on

631
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio, that Las Arena, because Joe and Mario have

632
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 1: worked out that what people really want is simple food

633
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:19,239
Speaker 1: at a good price point, just like Baltas are This

634
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:21,319
Speaker 1: will be the winner, This will be the turnover. What's

635
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:24,879
Speaker 1: on the menu, it's it's pure Italian. It's Mario back

636
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 1: to his roots. So I mean if Babo is like

637
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:29,719
Speaker 1: the high end version of Italian love, you know, land

638
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 1: letters and all that good stuff. This is you know,

639
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:35,959
Speaker 1: Baltas Ore for Italians. They must employ a huge number

640
00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 1: of people. Both are to do you give you global perspective.

641
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:41,279
Speaker 1: There's a bet an empty seat at it and six,

642
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:44,319
Speaker 1: but probably near twenty. The waiters and the waitresses, the

643
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 1: bartenders do they make like a king's ransom at those

644
00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:51,320
Speaker 1: places they make They make decent salaries. It's it's it's

645
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:55,320
Speaker 1: like a fashion, old fashioned market capitalism. It's I remember

646
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:59,279
Speaker 1: Tony Tony May from Santa Menico. It doesn't matter what

647
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:01,640
Speaker 1: Danny Meyer talks about. It doesn't mean if they if

648
00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:04,359
Speaker 1: there are people in the seats, you get paid. If

649
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:08,960
Speaker 1: they're not people. Recent the time we've got left, there's

650
00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:11,640
Speaker 1: a lot of restaurants. I see this, and I'm the amateur.

651
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:13,680
Speaker 1: There's a lot of empty seats. There are a lot

652
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:15,399
Speaker 1: of I was in a restaurant last night that shall

653
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 1: go unnamed where it's like, why am I sitting in

654
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 1: the front part? Oh? Because the back part we've closed off?

655
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:21,880
Speaker 1: Why it's it's there is going to be a culling

656
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen. And operators and and chefs like Mario Batali,

657
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 1: Can Friedman, April Bloomfield, you know, God bless them. They've

658
00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:31,399
Speaker 1: they've worked out what works in the market and they

659
00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:35,319
Speaker 1: have that experience which will probably transform the market. All right, Well,

660
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:37,719
Speaker 1: we have to ask it why the culling? Is it

661
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:40,400
Speaker 1: related to what we're seeing on Wall Street with the

662
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 1: not just the markets down in the turmoil we've seen,

663
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 1: but the layoffs that we're seeing in all the major banks. Um.

664
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 1: I suspect there's probably very little to do with with

665
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:51,680
Speaker 1: a bank relationship. I think it's much more to do

666
00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:53,719
Speaker 1: with the fact that there are so many restaurants. So

667
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 1: if you wind up with unemployed people seeing their apartments,

668
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:58,200
Speaker 1: they haven't stopped going out. They don't suddenly say, oh,

669
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:00,359
Speaker 1: we're not going out, but they may just that there

670
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:02,839
Speaker 1: are far too many restaurants around them, and that they're

671
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:04,920
Speaker 1: only going to go to the places that they absolutely

672
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:07,480
Speaker 1: like and maybe where they're not going to wind up

673
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 1: with a nine hundred thousand dollar tab. We haven't had

674
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:12,360
Speaker 1: a chance really to talk to you about the outlook

675
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:14,799
Speaker 1: for two thousand and sixteen. Yet you bring up an

676
00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:18,640
Speaker 1: interesting point when you're talking about um Bloomfield and freemen

677
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:23,359
Speaker 1: moving into the East fifties. Uh, do we see any

678
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:28,360
Speaker 1: kind of rotation in hot neighborhoods for the year ahead? Um,

679
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:31,080
Speaker 1: there's certainly going to be something like a rotation. I've

680
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 1: said it again, and maybe the gods will strike me down,

681
00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:37,960
Speaker 1: but for sure, the link to the banking segment, or

682
00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:41,040
Speaker 1: to our industry, the financial industry, is that suddenly all

683
00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 1: those hedge fund guys and uh ladies of the universe

684
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 1: might have been putting money like Mike have been putting

685
00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:50,359
Speaker 1: who have been putting money? All of a sudden they

686
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:53,400
Speaker 1: are They're picking up the phones and calling those people

687
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:56,399
Speaker 1: like Stumptown Coffee and a few of the others who

688
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:58,279
Speaker 1: got some venture capital back in the day and saying

689
00:40:58,320 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 1: where where is our money? By the way, and I

690
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:03,800
Speaker 1: want it back in the next three to six months.

691
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:06,719
Speaker 1: So there is definitely going to be a change around town.

692
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:09,160
Speaker 1: So it wouldn't surprise me if we start to see

693
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 1: more going down. Is there one trend that we can

694
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 1: already identify for two thousand sixteen in what's going to

695
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:20,600
Speaker 1: be popular? Um, certainly a move with with the Chipotle scare,

696
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:25,000
Speaker 1: with with the markets being very very unbalanced at the moment,

697
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:27,719
Speaker 1: I would certainly see that people are going to move

698
00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:31,480
Speaker 1: towards healthier foods. Um this what I what's called the

699
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:35,120
Speaker 1: local vore trend. So what we do have ken and

700
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 1: making uh making the making burgers. Not everybody wants to

701
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 1: go to a vegetarian restaurant now, but everybody wants to

702
00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:44,880
Speaker 1: go to an old stake restaurant. So everybody wants to

703
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 1: go to a place very along the sweet green model

704
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:50,600
Speaker 1: of something that is healthy, but where you can also

705
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:53,360
Speaker 1: get a burger? Or can I ask one quick question?

706
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:59,200
Speaker 1: Are we overkill yet? Kale was so two thousand and

707
00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 1: you know a let we are absolutely burger back. We

708
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 1: are back to Peter Earlio. Are you gonna be here

709
00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 1: for like more than two days? Peter Elliott with a

710
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:14,040
Speaker 1: wonderful Bloomberg reserve. Lots of it about like coming up,

711
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 1: like the days are getting longer, and you may go

712
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:19,160
Speaker 1: to New York Litchfield or the Hampton's in Boston, Kate,

713
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:23,960
Speaker 1: where do they go in Washington? They go to the shore,

714
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:25,880
Speaker 1: Peter l It's gonna be done a lot of that.

715
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:29,640
Speaker 1: As we moved into two thousand sixteen, the Dow, we

716
00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:32,400
Speaker 1: we have a rally off of the horrific market of

717
00:42:32,520 --> 00:42:35,160
Speaker 1: eight am negative one seventy two on the Dow, the

718
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:38,520
Speaker 1: vixed twenty eight point zero six. Please stay with Bloomberg

719
00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:41,879
Speaker 1: Radio through the morning on these markets, uh in the

720
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:45,960
Speaker 1: turmoil that we see. This is Bloomberg surveillance. Good morning,