WEBVTT - NFL Week 2 Best Bets with Wes Reynolds (Ep 201) 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:03.800 Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. 0:00:03.920 --> 0:00:06.920 I'm your host Thomas Maiola and joining me is always 0:00:07.000 --> 0:00:11.000 none other than the Oracle himself, Matthew Friedman. And today 0:00:11.039 --> 0:00:14.360 we have a very special guest with us, VI Sin's 0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:17.799 own Wes Reynolds is here to help us break down 0:00:17.840 --> 0:00:21.320 the week two lines. Wes, how are you doing today? 0:00:21.360 --> 0:00:22.680 It is a pleasure to have you here. 0:00:22.800 --> 0:00:26.040 Good to be on with you guys week two. You 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:29.280 know it's always the overreaction reek week, right, but some 0:00:29.360 --> 0:00:32.120 of the reactions need to be reactions based on what 0:00:32.240 --> 0:00:34.320 we saw. But I think this is kind of a 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:36.920 tricky card this week. It's not like last week. And 0:00:37.080 --> 0:00:38.680 I know, Tom, you and I were talking in the 0:00:38.760 --> 0:00:41.920 lead up before we started recording here that last week 0:00:41.960 --> 0:00:43.440 we kind of thought was going to be a little 0:00:43.479 --> 0:00:45.720 bit of carnage, especially was in a lot of the 0:00:45.760 --> 0:00:48.600 survivor pools, a lot of these favorites going down. But 0:00:48.640 --> 0:00:51.200 I think really one of the reasons was because Week 0:00:51.240 --> 0:00:54.760 one has almost become the new Week four and NFL preseason. 0:00:54.800 --> 0:00:57.000 I think with so many of these starters sitting out, 0:00:57.360 --> 0:01:00.360 especially these quarterbacks. Quarterbacks were three and eight did not 0:01:00.440 --> 0:01:03.560 take a snap in the preseason, so it takes a 0:01:03.600 --> 0:01:05.959 couple of weeks for these guys that develop chemistry with 0:01:06.000 --> 0:01:09.080 the receivers and especially with the offensive line. I think 0:01:09.080 --> 0:01:11.039 that's what I really noticed in Week one, a lot 0:01:11.080 --> 0:01:13.199 of these offensive lines very much out of kilter. 0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:15.600 I think you hit the nail on the head with that, 0:01:15.959 --> 0:01:17.679 the fact that there's a lot of rush to shake 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:20.320 off for a lot of these teams, and we saw 0:01:20.959 --> 0:01:25.080 just too many large favorites, too many touchdown home favorites 0:01:25.120 --> 0:01:27.480 that just could not cover that kind of spread. Matt, 0:01:27.520 --> 0:01:29.480 what did you think from Week one? 0:01:29.720 --> 0:01:33.600 Yeah, I mean an entertaining week. It was boring, like 0:01:33.680 --> 0:01:36.560 in the first go of it, like the early slate 0:01:36.680 --> 0:01:39.960 for the first you know, like three quarters relatively boring, 0:01:40.000 --> 0:01:42.280 low scoring games, and then like all of them came 0:01:42.319 --> 0:01:45.360 together and we had some pretty epic finishes there. And 0:01:45.360 --> 0:01:50.200 then the afternoon slate, not many close games there, but 0:01:50.360 --> 0:01:56.240 it was fun to see the Chiefs just absolutely ball out. 0:01:56.840 --> 0:01:59.680 So a good a good slate, and I think it 0:01:59.760 --> 0:02:04.560 has resulted in some inflated lines for Week two, you know, 0:02:04.600 --> 0:02:08.680 with the overreaction that we almost always see. So it's 0:02:08.680 --> 0:02:10.120 an interesting slate for sure. 0:02:10.919 --> 0:02:12.960 I love how you talk about how a lot of 0:02:12.960 --> 0:02:15.440 the games were boring and then they all come together 0:02:15.520 --> 0:02:18.160 and we got exciting finishes. But your favorite game, the 0:02:18.200 --> 0:02:21.680 one you wanted to highlight, was the absolute blowout that 0:02:21.919 --> 0:02:26.160 wasn't competitive, not interesting, decided in the first quarter. 0:02:26.639 --> 0:02:29.760 Oh, it wasn't interesting, and like, oh, this is a 0:02:29.800 --> 0:02:32.480 close game, but it's sort of compelling of like how 0:02:32.520 --> 0:02:35.080 good is this Chiefs team? You know, because for me 0:02:35.200 --> 0:02:37.480 that was one of the big questions entering the year 0:02:38.200 --> 0:02:42.440 where I was aggressively rating them in my power rating system, 0:02:42.880 --> 0:02:44.840 and I don't want to say like I was right, 0:02:45.120 --> 0:02:48.320 but you know, like it's an indication that I wasn't 0:02:48.360 --> 0:02:51.400 horribly wrong in terms of Week one, and you know, 0:02:51.480 --> 0:02:53.880 continue to evaluate and see how they do after that. 0:02:53.960 --> 0:02:56.280 But it was it was nice to see them be 0:02:56.520 --> 0:02:59.600 inventive and be able to scheme in a new way 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:01.720 and move on from Tyreek Hill and still have an 0:03:01.720 --> 0:03:02.480 awesome offense. 0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:07.679 My preseason terrible time take was like the smartest guy 0:03:07.720 --> 0:03:10.480 in the room take was the Chiefs are going to struggle. 0:03:10.520 --> 0:03:13.040 And then I saw two preseason series and I was like, Okay, 0:03:13.360 --> 0:03:15.960 we're good. None of that, They're just fine. I'm glad 0:03:15.960 --> 0:03:16.600 I got off that. 0:03:16.720 --> 0:03:20.360 To your guys's point, Like I was saying, with Kansas City, 0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:23.000 they take a lot of different approach here, because look, 0:03:23.040 --> 0:03:25.239 you always want to protect your stars and not get 0:03:25.240 --> 0:03:27.600 them hurt and have them available for the regular season. 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:30.080 But if you see what Andy Reid does, and he 0:03:30.080 --> 0:03:31.600 didn't do it every game, I don't think in the 0:03:31.600 --> 0:03:35.080 third game Mahomes and company really played. But you know, 0:03:35.160 --> 0:03:37.680 that first preseason game against the Bears, like if there 0:03:37.720 --> 0:03:39.520 was a game to sit guys, it might have been 0:03:39.640 --> 0:03:43.040 that one. Mahomes and the starters played essentially the first quarter. 0:03:43.120 --> 0:03:46.280 And that's what Reed always does in the preseason. It's like, Okay, 0:03:46.320 --> 0:03:48.200 the ones are going to play the first quarter, the 0:03:48.240 --> 0:03:50.040 twos are going to play the second quarter, and then 0:03:50.040 --> 0:03:52.000 everybody else is going to finish the game in the 0:03:52.040 --> 0:03:54.480 second half. And I think that there's something to that. 0:03:54.560 --> 0:03:56.960 Even if you're only getting limited reps on one or 0:03:57.000 --> 0:04:00.720 maybe even two series in the first quarter, getting live 0:04:00.800 --> 0:04:03.480 game reps, and it's still you know, people might call 0:04:03.480 --> 0:04:05.880 it fake football, it's still real football because guys are 0:04:05.920 --> 0:04:08.480 playing for jobs and this is still for real. Even 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:10.800 though in the end of the gay it doesn't really matter. 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:13.480 But still I think that that speaks to why you 0:04:13.560 --> 0:04:15.280 saw the Chiefs so sharp. And that's one of the 0:04:15.280 --> 0:04:18.400 games I didn't have acting on for Week one last Sunday, 0:04:18.440 --> 0:04:21.479 But you know, when it plays out, you're like, yeah, 0:04:21.760 --> 0:04:23.880 you know, you kind of see that. You know they're 0:04:24.000 --> 0:04:26.120 sharp to start the season and some of these other 0:04:26.160 --> 0:04:28.480 teams are still really trying to figure it out. 0:04:29.800 --> 0:04:32.719 I think that you're completely right with that. It's without 0:04:32.760 --> 0:04:35.400 the fourth week of the preseason to really play all 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:38.480 of those other guys and use the third week as 0:04:38.480 --> 0:04:42.560 a dress rehearsal. It is that teams are going to 0:04:42.600 --> 0:04:45.120 be sharper if they are taking advantage, like Andy Reid 0:04:45.240 --> 0:04:47.920 is of Okay, I'm gonna drip feed my team, get 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:50.120 them just ready so that they're coming back from the 0:04:50.160 --> 0:04:52.800 offseason and we get to Week one and they have 0:04:53.080 --> 0:04:55.839 at least a ramp up into full game speed. 0:04:57.360 --> 0:05:00.119 Can I push back just a little bit not to 0:05:00.160 --> 0:05:02.599 say that you guys are wrong, and I think generally 0:05:02.880 --> 0:05:07.520 you're right. I do think that the McVeigh anecdote is 0:05:07.640 --> 0:05:11.920 interesting with him always resting his team during the preseason 0:05:12.360 --> 0:05:16.000 and then up until this season being five to zero 0:05:16.040 --> 0:05:18.919 against the spread in Week one, where his team's historically, 0:05:19.040 --> 0:05:21.920 and so maybe this is just a McVay specific thing 0:05:22.440 --> 0:05:25.719 where whatever it is, something that they're doing in training camp. 0:05:26.040 --> 0:05:29.280 His teams normally are sharp in the first couple of 0:05:29.279 --> 0:05:32.119 weeks of the season, even though they're not getting that action. 0:05:32.600 --> 0:05:35.919 But I do think that we haven't seen enough of 0:05:35.960 --> 0:05:38.120 a sample to be able to say that other coaches 0:05:38.160 --> 0:05:41.400 have the ability to replicate what McVeigh has done. He 0:05:41.480 --> 0:05:42.440 might be the outlier. 0:05:44.080 --> 0:05:46.839 The other flip side here to this argument is you 0:05:46.839 --> 0:05:49.080 look at the Packers. They get shellacked twice in a 0:05:49.160 --> 0:05:51.279 row in Week one now going back to last season, 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:53.440 but what else did the Packers do last year? They 0:05:53.520 --> 0:05:57.560 won the NFC, they were the one seed. It's it 0:05:57.600 --> 0:05:59.960 is that question of does the preseason rest make you 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:01.480 sharper later in the season? 0:06:01.600 --> 0:06:01.720 Is it? 0:06:01.800 --> 0:06:05.039 By that point it doesn't really matter, and that you've 0:06:05.080 --> 0:06:07.480 gone over the course of a whole season and on aggregate, 0:06:07.960 --> 0:06:10.800 the rest in the beginning there doesn't affect you. By then, 0:06:11.640 --> 0:06:14.279 who's to say? I'm not sure. I'm not claiming that 0:06:14.360 --> 0:06:16.360 I know the answer, and I'm saying that teams should 0:06:16.440 --> 0:06:18.480 or shouldn't start their starters in the preseason and. 0:06:18.400 --> 0:06:20.920 In general, what we're seeing in Week one too. I think, 0:06:20.960 --> 0:06:24.479 why we see the underdogs do so well everybody. I 0:06:24.560 --> 0:06:27.200 know this is gonna be coach speak and a cliche. 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:30.320 We're all zero and zero, but in reality they are 0:06:30.360 --> 0:06:33.200 in Week one. So you get all these teams, and 0:06:33.440 --> 0:06:36.159 you know, I had a couple ugly underdogs. Unfortunately Tom's 0:06:36.240 --> 0:06:38.520 Jets didn't get there. For me, that was the outlier, 0:06:38.600 --> 0:06:41.920 but most of these bad underdogs actually did get there 0:06:41.960 --> 0:06:45.240 because you had the Bears and the Seahawks. You know, 0:06:45.320 --> 0:06:47.320 those are two examples, and those are two teams that 0:06:47.360 --> 0:06:49.599 I don't think are gonna be very good. So I 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:52.200 don't think you want to say, okay, really upgrade these 0:06:52.240 --> 0:06:54.520 guys because they got to win in Week one. I 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:57.039 still think they're bad teams. But when you get here 0:06:57.440 --> 0:06:59.800 heard all summer that you know you're getting crapped on, 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:02.839 and you got schmucks like me that are betting Bears 0:07:02.880 --> 0:07:05.240 for the worst record at twelve to one at the 0:07:05.320 --> 0:07:06.880 end of the season, and they come out and play 0:07:06.960 --> 0:07:09.280 very well. It's kind of a perfect storm for some 0:07:09.360 --> 0:07:11.880 of these road favorites to go out and lay an 0:07:11.880 --> 0:07:14.480 egg a little bit in Week one. Denver, of course, 0:07:14.560 --> 0:07:17.400 did it on Monday night, not the best performance for 0:07:17.520 --> 0:07:20.200 Nathaniel Hackett. I'm not willing to fire him and call 0:07:20.280 --> 0:07:22.280 him the worst coach ever after week one. But it 0:07:22.360 --> 0:07:25.480 wasn't just the end. There was some questionable you know, 0:07:25.600 --> 0:07:27.960 designs there on the goal line. So it was a 0:07:27.960 --> 0:07:30.640 bad performance. I'm willing at least to dismiss it as 0:07:30.720 --> 0:07:33.640 that from week one. So that's why you don't necessarily 0:07:33.960 --> 0:07:36.800 want to overreact. But going back to what you said 0:07:36.840 --> 0:07:38.960 about the Chiefs, Look, they were very sharp, and I 0:07:39.040 --> 0:07:42.280 was wondering, Okay, have we downgraded the Chiefs too much, 0:07:42.400 --> 0:07:45.160 or that we upgraded the rest of the Vision just 0:07:45.200 --> 0:07:47.400 to say that they got better, because all the rest 0:07:47.440 --> 0:07:50.720 of the Vision teams obviously made very notable acquisitions. 0:07:52.320 --> 0:07:55.360 You completely hit the nail on the head with the 0:07:55.400 --> 0:07:59.240 wildness of week one and Nathaniel Hackett's schemes being a 0:07:59.240 --> 0:08:02.440 little suspected. I'm willing to say that you should probably 0:08:02.440 --> 0:08:05.680 be fired if you run out of the shotgun on 0:08:05.800 --> 0:08:08.200 the goal line. I don't think you should have a 0:08:08.280 --> 0:08:10.360 job in the NFL. That's just my opinion here. 0:08:10.520 --> 0:08:14.040 Yeah, I look, I'm old school in that way. It's like, Okay, 0:08:14.080 --> 0:08:16.960 there are some times, yeah, you can run pistol or 0:08:17.000 --> 0:08:18.840 something like that. But a lot of times, you know, 0:08:19.280 --> 0:08:21.760 hat on hat, and I mean, I know that sounds like, 0:08:21.840 --> 0:08:24.080 you know, I'm back in the stone Age here saying that. 0:08:24.120 --> 0:08:27.040 But it's like, line up, get me a yard, get 0:08:27.080 --> 0:08:29.360 me in the end zone. And sometimes it is that simple, 0:08:29.400 --> 0:08:31.440 and we over complicate things in this game. 0:08:32.320 --> 0:08:35.760 I just loved the Twitter takes of oh why is 0:08:35.840 --> 0:08:38.200 Belvin Gordon running that ball at the one? It should 0:08:38.200 --> 0:08:41.439 be Javonte Williams. He doesn't fumble that. He doesn't fumble that. 0:08:41.720 --> 0:08:45.400 Oh man, that was pretty sweet. Some instant karma watching 0:08:45.440 --> 0:08:48.600 that happen. But right now, guys, let's dive into some 0:08:48.679 --> 0:08:51.240 Week two. We've spent enough time talking about what was. 0:08:51.320 --> 0:08:53.800 We need to talk about what will be. And let's 0:08:53.840 --> 0:08:57.280 start off with two teams that frankly I am struggling 0:08:57.280 --> 0:09:00.280 to get a read on here. Through one week. We 0:09:00.320 --> 0:09:03.760 have the New England Patriots at the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers, 0:09:03.760 --> 0:09:08.040 of course, we're able to win that overtime Cincinnati game 0:09:08.120 --> 0:09:11.120 that nobody really seemed to want to win. The Patriots 0:09:11.160 --> 0:09:14.960 got shellacked by the Dolphins yet again. Bet MGM has 0:09:15.000 --> 0:09:20.240 this line at Patriots minus two on the road and Matt, 0:09:20.320 --> 0:09:24.560 what are you thinking here as far as the side 0:09:24.559 --> 0:09:25.160 in this game. 0:09:26.120 --> 0:09:30.040 Yeah, I like the Steelers in this spot, and you 0:09:30.080 --> 0:09:32.440 know there are matchups in it that I like, but 0:09:32.679 --> 0:09:34.760 a lot of it is just Tomlin as a dog 0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:37.760 and Tomlin at home right as an underdog, He's forty 0:09:37.800 --> 0:09:40.600 six twenty three and two against the spread for his career, 0:09:40.720 --> 0:09:45.240 Like that is a phenomenal record at home, sixty three 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:47.800 fifty five and three, and you put it together, Tomlin 0:09:47.840 --> 0:09:51.880 as a home underdog is fourteen three and two against 0:09:51.880 --> 0:09:56.360 the spread. I think the I know TJ. Watt is out, 0:09:56.960 --> 0:10:00.600 that definitely hurts this defense. And I think Watt is 0:10:00.640 --> 0:10:03.440 worth maybe a point a point and a half to 0:10:03.559 --> 0:10:06.720 the spread. He's one of the few non quarterbacks who 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:11.400 actually makes an impact against the line. But I still 0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:15.000 think that the Steelers have a little, I want to say, 0:10:15.000 --> 0:10:16.920 an advantage, but I don't think they are. They are 0:10:16.960 --> 0:10:21.240 as disadvantaged as people expect them to be without TJ. Watt. 0:10:21.400 --> 0:10:23.160 So last year, the Patriots had one of the best 0:10:23.240 --> 0:10:26.439 rushing offenses in the league. The Steelers had a mediocre 0:10:26.520 --> 0:10:30.560 at best run defense in Week one, though it looked 0:10:30.600 --> 0:10:34.200 pretty different against the rebuilt Bengals offensive line. The Steelers 0:10:34.240 --> 0:10:37.559 defensive front seven. They were pretty strong. They held running 0:10:37.559 --> 0:10:39.680 back Joe Mix into just three yards per carry on 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:43.360 twenty seven attempts. And like the Bengals the Patriots, they 0:10:43.520 --> 0:10:47.880 altered their offensive line this offseason. They traded guard Shack Mason, 0:10:48.120 --> 0:10:52.200 they lost left guards Ted Carris, they moved offensive tackle 0:10:52.360 --> 0:10:58.160 Trent Trent Brown and and Isaiah Win switched them switch 0:10:58.240 --> 0:11:00.360 sides to left tackle, the right tackling right tackle, the 0:11:00.440 --> 0:11:03.640 left tackle Michael and Wenu. He went from right tackle 0:11:03.679 --> 0:11:06.560 in twenty twenty and left guard and right tackle last 0:11:06.600 --> 0:11:08.920 year to right guard. And then they drafted Cole Strange. 0:11:08.960 --> 0:11:14.640 So they have a significantly rebuilt offensive line. And on 0:11:14.679 --> 0:11:18.199 top of that, they shifted away this offseason from a 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:22.400 gap heavy power rushing scheme to a Shanahan style zone 0:11:22.440 --> 0:11:24.560 blocking scheme. And it's not to say that they are 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:27.439 all zone blocking now, but they have moved in that 0:11:27.520 --> 0:11:31.200 direction and the results were not positive. In Week one, 0:11:31.440 --> 0:11:34.480 They're running backs combined for just seventy one yards on 0:11:34.640 --> 0:11:38.320 nineteen carries. And TJ. Watt, you know, obviously great player, 0:11:38.400 --> 0:11:41.439 defensive Player of the Year. Where he makes the biggest 0:11:41.440 --> 0:11:44.920 difference is as a pass rusher, not as a run defender. 0:11:46.120 --> 0:11:50.760 The Steelers still have Cameron Hayward, Larry Ogunjobi, Chris Wormley, 0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:54.439 Tyson Alua Luo. They have those guys in the interior 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:58.040 to be able to challenge the Patriots in the trenches. 0:11:58.559 --> 0:12:01.559 And I think with the Patriots, especially with Mac Jones 0:12:01.600 --> 0:12:04.600 having the back issue that he's dealing with, I think 0:12:04.640 --> 0:12:08.120 they're going to lean all the more into the running game. 0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:10.520 Not as if they need much of an excuse to 0:12:10.600 --> 0:12:13.000 lean on the running game anyway, that's what their offense 0:12:13.080 --> 0:12:16.040 is predicated on. I just don't know how much success 0:12:16.200 --> 0:12:19.080 they are going to have running the ball against the 0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:23.719 Steelers front, and even without TJ. Watt, I think they're 0:12:23.760 --> 0:12:26.480 still going to be able to assert themselves in that way. 0:12:26.559 --> 0:12:30.560 So I think this is a closer game than not 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:32.959 a closer game than people would expect. But I think 0:12:32.960 --> 0:12:35.280 the Steelers are able to keep it close and I 0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:37.520 think they should actually be favored in this spot. 0:12:38.720 --> 0:12:43.480 Yeah. Ah no, I was gonna say for me, even 0:12:43.480 --> 0:12:45.280 though it's dropped a little bit, I still like the 0:12:45.280 --> 0:12:48.280 total at under forty and a half. I still think 0:12:48.280 --> 0:12:50.000 that there is a little bit of value there. Even 0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:51.840 though forty one is kind of an old key number 0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:54.439 with totals, but maybe not in the new NFL with 0:12:54.520 --> 0:12:58.120 more possessions and obviously more kicking gain problems with the 0:12:58.160 --> 0:13:00.800 extra points being missed. But I still think that the 0:13:00.880 --> 0:13:03.080 under can be sponsored here because if you look at 0:13:03.120 --> 0:13:06.520 the Patriots now second straight road game, only scored seven 0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:10.040 in Miami. This isn't a recent pattern though for the Patriots. 0:13:10.040 --> 0:13:12.320 If you go back all the way to two twenty sixteen, 0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:16.560 I think Patriots on the road correlating that with the unders, 0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:18.599 it hits like two thirds of the time. This is 0:13:18.640 --> 0:13:21.800 going back to Tom Brady being the quarterback in Foxborough, so 0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:24.880 this isn't just exclusively a mac Jones thing. I thought 0:13:24.880 --> 0:13:27.160 the Patriots defense was a little bit better in the 0:13:27.160 --> 0:13:30.360 second half. They had only allowed like seventy yards until 0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:33.160 they fumbled at the end trying to get it to 0:13:33.200 --> 0:13:35.240 a one score game, and then Miami was just able 0:13:35.280 --> 0:13:37.120 to run out the clock with fifty more yards. But 0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:40.640 I thought the defense was okay. Patriots still struggled to 0:13:40.679 --> 0:13:42.640 run the ball. They really struggled to run the ball 0:13:42.679 --> 0:13:46.120 in the preseason. I think the rise in the line 0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:47.640 because it was down at one and a half. Now 0:13:47.640 --> 0:13:49.079 you're seeing some two and even some two and a 0:13:49.120 --> 0:13:51.079 half in the market. I think it's because they think 0:13:51.120 --> 0:13:53.280 mac Jones is going to go ahead and play here, 0:13:53.320 --> 0:13:55.920 so they're not have to go to Brian Hoyer, Whereas 0:13:55.960 --> 0:13:57.680 I think if they went with Brian Hoyer, then the 0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:00.720 Steelers absolutely would be favorites, and there may be a 0:14:00.760 --> 0:14:03.559 discussion of whether they should be or not. So Steelers 0:14:03.559 --> 0:14:06.079 on a teaser leg I think would make sense. I 0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:07.840 don't know if I'm willing to take the two, but 0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:10.640 I like these teasers. And that's kind of a general 0:14:10.720 --> 0:14:14.439 point I want to make about these Wollteezers, which historically 0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:17.439 are very good obviously teasing through the three and the seven, 0:14:17.480 --> 0:14:19.880 even though those numbers may not be as key as 0:14:19.920 --> 0:14:23.120 they were even five or ten years ago. But I 0:14:23.120 --> 0:14:26.080 think those numbers are more key when you have lower totals, 0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:28.440 because I think we could use last Thursday Night's game 0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:31.760 as an example. Those six points don't have as much 0:14:31.920 --> 0:14:35.040 value when you have one of the top offenses like 0:14:35.040 --> 0:14:38.000 a Buffalo, like a Kansas City, But when you have 0:14:38.080 --> 0:14:39.840 these teams that are more middle of the pack or 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:42.960 even down below the Mendoza line on offense and you 0:14:43.040 --> 0:14:46.200 have these low totals, then those Wolteezers are going to matter. 0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:48.400 And I think you saw that materialize in that Cleveland 0:14:48.480 --> 0:14:49.840 Carolina game last week. 0:14:50.240 --> 0:14:51.960 Yeah, absolutely, absolutely. 0:14:52.440 --> 0:14:55.560 Well, Wes, you talk about potential teaser spots if you're 0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:58.720 looking for something to pair the Steelers with the Saints 0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:00.640 at two and a half or someone, have your eye 0:15:00.640 --> 0:15:02.160 on here against the Bucks. 0:15:02.600 --> 0:15:05.960 Yeah, I bet three already, and you know, I think 0:15:06.000 --> 0:15:08.400 you might see three again depending on what the injury 0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:11.120 report is for Campa Bay. But I just look at 0:15:11.120 --> 0:15:14.400 the fact that now they're left tackle is questionable. They 0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:17.200 already lost Ryan Jens and they already lost Aaron Stinny. 0:15:17.520 --> 0:15:19.440 We know that they were replacing guys on the O 0:15:19.560 --> 0:15:22.120 line anyway. Shaq Mason is new, even though TV twelve 0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:24.640 has played with him for years up in New England. 0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:27.880 But this offensive line, and I think you saw the 0:15:27.880 --> 0:15:29.920 game plan. I don't even think it was just game 0:15:30.000 --> 0:15:32.920 specific against Dallas. I think Tampa Bay is going to 0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:34.880 try to run the ball a little bit more this year. 0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:38.720 And I think that's the direction of Tom Brady's saying, Okay, 0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:41.880 let's mix it up because all these great quarterbacks, everybody 0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:44.400 thinks that Okay, they want to pile up these stats 0:15:44.400 --> 0:15:49.560 and whatnot. All the elite quarterbacks, Manny Brady, you know, Mahomes, 0:15:49.600 --> 0:15:51.520 all these rogers are like, hey, let's run the ball 0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:53.520 a little bit more because they don't want to get hit, 0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:56.880 especially if they're not confident about the offensive line. So 0:15:56.920 --> 0:15:59.560 I still think even when Godwin gets back, I think 0:15:59.760 --> 0:16:02.280 he's going to be out for this one. But even 0:16:02.320 --> 0:16:04.680 when he gets back, I don't expect you're going to 0:16:04.720 --> 0:16:07.680 see Tom Brady throwing the ball thirty five forty times. 0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:10.440 He led the league in pass attempts last year at 0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:13.200 forty four years old. I don't think Leftwich and Todd 0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:16.480 Bowles and more specifically Tom Brady want that to happen again. 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:19.000 So you're going to see them run the ball. And 0:16:19.040 --> 0:16:21.640 I think the Saints pass rush can be dangerous, even 0:16:21.680 --> 0:16:24.800 though they had zero sacks last week. But you get Davenport, 0:16:24.840 --> 0:16:27.680 you get Jordan, They've been able to get pressure on 0:16:27.880 --> 0:16:29.960 Tom Brady and he they've really kind of been as 0:16:29.960 --> 0:16:32.960 scryptonite except for that playoff game. In the regular season, 0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:34.840 the Saints have really owned these guys. And I know 0:16:35.240 --> 0:16:38.000 kind of a you know, not complete performance from New 0:16:38.120 --> 0:16:40.360 Orleans in Week one in Atlanta, but they did come 0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:43.400 back from down sixteen, so sometimes there's something to be 0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:46.280 said for momentum. So I think the Saints could absolutely 0:16:46.280 --> 0:16:48.280 be a teaser piece with the Steelers one we'll get 0:16:48.320 --> 0:16:50.560 to later too. With the Carolina Panthers. 0:16:51.360 --> 0:16:54.240 I'm completely with you here. I was actually listening to 0:16:54.320 --> 0:16:58.680 our friends over with our sister at Fantasy Pros Joe Pi, 0:16:58.760 --> 0:17:01.920 Sapia and Andrew Er. We're talking earlier on their show 0:17:02.280 --> 0:17:05.560 about the Saints defense is kind of built to stop 0:17:05.640 --> 0:17:09.480 Tom Brady. When they face a mobile quarterback like Marcus Mariota, 0:17:09.480 --> 0:17:11.560 they don't quite know what to do and they struggle 0:17:11.600 --> 0:17:14.480 a little bit there. But take those struggles against the 0:17:14.480 --> 0:17:17.240 Falcons with a grain of salt. And also, I think 0:17:17.320 --> 0:17:19.280 Jamis Winston started to look good. You break down that 0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:22.359 fourth quarter, two hundred passing yards, two touchdowns. He figured 0:17:22.400 --> 0:17:24.399 it out in the fourth and part of that is 0:17:24.400 --> 0:17:27.480 getting comfortable with his new receivers. Michael Thomas didn't really 0:17:27.480 --> 0:17:29.440 get a chance to play with him at all. Chris 0:17:29.440 --> 0:17:33.240 Alave obviously knew he's got a new suite of weapons 0:17:33.240 --> 0:17:34.720 to work with, and I think we're only going to 0:17:34.760 --> 0:17:37.800 see him improve over time. Here matt Any thought on 0:17:37.840 --> 0:17:38.280 the Saints. 0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:42.040 Yeah, absolutely, with Wes, I have them in the betting 0:17:42.080 --> 0:17:44.960 pros app at Saints plus three, I bet it on 0:17:45.000 --> 0:17:48.000 the look aheadline because I thought this line would move down. 0:17:48.040 --> 0:17:49.399 I didn't think there it was going to move up. 0:17:49.400 --> 0:17:51.560 I thought, if anything, it would move down. And we 0:17:51.640 --> 0:17:55.080 have seen that the matchup between Marshaun Lattimore and Mike 0:17:55.160 --> 0:17:58.880 Evans is must watch TV two times a year. Those 0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:04.120 guys legitimate hate each other, and for some reason, even 0:18:04.160 --> 0:18:07.280 though Latimore is not a big guy, he has been 0:18:07.320 --> 0:18:10.040 able historically, with the exception of a couple of games, 0:18:10.040 --> 0:18:13.520 he has been able to neutralize Mike Evans, which really 0:18:13.640 --> 0:18:17.879 changes the structure of what the Buccaneers are able to 0:18:17.920 --> 0:18:20.520 do on offense. And that really is the key for 0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:24.280 the Saints here. So I do like them, like Wes 0:18:24.280 --> 0:18:25.560 at this number of plus three. 0:18:26.600 --> 0:18:28.800 Guys, real quick, I want to talk to you about Sleeper. 0:18:29.040 --> 0:18:32.120 Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions 0:18:32.160 --> 0:18:35.000 of players. 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