Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm your host Thomas Maiola and joining me is always
Speaker 1: none other than the Oracle himself, Matthew Friedman. And today
Speaker 1: we have a very special guest with us, VI Sin's
Speaker 1: own Wes Reynolds is here to help us break down
Speaker 1: the week two lines. Wes, how are you doing today?
Speaker 1: It is a pleasure to have you here.
Speaker 2: Good to be on with you guys week two. You
Speaker 2: know it's always the overreaction reek week, right, but some
Speaker 2: of the reactions need to be reactions based on what
Speaker 2: we saw. But I think this is kind of a
Speaker 2: tricky card this week. It's not like last week. And
Speaker 2: I know, Tom, you and I were talking in the
Speaker 2: lead up before we started recording here that last week
Speaker 2: we kind of thought was going to be a little
Speaker 2: bit of carnage, especially was in a lot of the
Speaker 2: survivor pools, a lot of these favorites going down. But
Speaker 2: I think really one of the reasons was because Week
Speaker 2: one has almost become the new Week four and NFL preseason.
Speaker 2: I think with so many of these starters sitting out,
Speaker 2: especially these quarterbacks. Quarterbacks were three and eight did not
Speaker 2: take a snap in the preseason, so it takes a
Speaker 2: couple of weeks for these guys that develop chemistry with
Speaker 2: the receivers and especially with the offensive line. I think
Speaker 2: that's what I really noticed in Week one, a lot
Speaker 2: of these offensive lines very much out of kilter.
Speaker 1: I think you hit the nail on the head with that,
Speaker 1: the fact that there's a lot of rush to shake
Speaker 1: off for a lot of these teams, and we saw
Speaker 1: just too many large favorites, too many touchdown home favorites
Speaker 1: that just could not cover that kind of spread. Matt,
Speaker 1: what did you think from Week one?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean an entertaining week. It was boring, like
Speaker 3: in the first go of it, like the early slate
Speaker 3: for the first you know, like three quarters relatively boring,
Speaker 3: low scoring games, and then like all of them came
Speaker 3: together and we had some pretty epic finishes there. And
Speaker 3: then the afternoon slate, not many close games there, but
Speaker 3: it was fun to see the Chiefs just absolutely ball out.
Speaker 3: So a good a good slate, and I think it
Speaker 3: has resulted in some inflated lines for Week two, you know,
Speaker 3: with the overreaction that we almost always see. So it's
Speaker 3: an interesting slate for sure.
Speaker 1: I love how you talk about how a lot of
Speaker 1: the games were boring and then they all come together
Speaker 1: and we got exciting finishes. But your favorite game, the
Speaker 1: one you wanted to highlight, was the absolute blowout that
Speaker 1: wasn't competitive, not interesting, decided in the first quarter.
Speaker 3: Oh, it wasn't interesting, and like, oh, this is a
Speaker 3: close game, but it's sort of compelling of like how
Speaker 3: good is this Chiefs team? You know, because for me
Speaker 3: that was one of the big questions entering the year
Speaker 3: where I was aggressively rating them in my power rating system,
Speaker 3: and I don't want to say like I was right,
Speaker 3: but you know, like it's an indication that I wasn't
Speaker 3: horribly wrong in terms of Week one, and you know,
Speaker 3: continue to evaluate and see how they do after that.
Speaker 3: But it was it was nice to see them be
Speaker 3: inventive and be able to scheme in a new way
Speaker 3: and move on from Tyreek Hill and still have an
Speaker 3: awesome offense.
Speaker 1: My preseason terrible time take was like the smartest guy
Speaker 1: in the room take was the Chiefs are going to struggle.
Speaker 1: And then I saw two preseason series and I was like, Okay,
Speaker 1: we're good. None of that, They're just fine. I'm glad
Speaker 1: I got off that.
Speaker 2: To your guys's point, Like I was saying, with Kansas City,
Speaker 2: they take a lot of different approach here, because look,
Speaker 2: you always want to protect your stars and not get
Speaker 2: them hurt and have them available for the regular season.
Speaker 2: But if you see what Andy Reid does, and he
Speaker 2: didn't do it every game, I don't think in the
Speaker 2: third game Mahomes and company really played. But you know,
Speaker 2: that first preseason game against the Bears, like if there
Speaker 2: was a game to sit guys, it might have been
Speaker 2: that one. Mahomes and the starters played essentially the first quarter.
Speaker 2: And that's what Reed always does in the preseason. It's like, Okay,
Speaker 2: the ones are going to play the first quarter, the
Speaker 2: twos are going to play the second quarter, and then
Speaker 2: everybody else is going to finish the game in the
Speaker 2: second half. And I think that there's something to that.
Speaker 2: Even if you're only getting limited reps on one or
Speaker 2: maybe even two series in the first quarter, getting live
Speaker 2: game reps, and it's still you know, people might call
Speaker 2: it fake football, it's still real football because guys are
Speaker 2: playing for jobs and this is still for real. Even
Speaker 2: though in the end of the gay it doesn't really matter.
Speaker 2: But still I think that that speaks to why you
Speaker 2: saw the Chiefs so sharp. And that's one of the
Speaker 2: games I didn't have acting on for Week one last Sunday,
Speaker 2: But you know, when it plays out, you're like, yeah,
Speaker 2: you know, you kind of see that. You know they're
Speaker 2: sharp to start the season and some of these other
Speaker 2: teams are still really trying to figure it out.
Speaker 1: I think that you're completely right with that. It's without
Speaker 1: the fourth week of the preseason to really play all
Speaker 1: of those other guys and use the third week as
Speaker 1: a dress rehearsal. It is that teams are going to
Speaker 1: be sharper if they are taking advantage, like Andy Reid
Speaker 1: is of Okay, I'm gonna drip feed my team, get
Speaker 1: them just ready so that they're coming back from the
Speaker 1: offseason and we get to Week one and they have
Speaker 1: at least a ramp up into full game speed.
Speaker 3: Can I push back just a little bit not to
Speaker 3: say that you guys are wrong, and I think generally
Speaker 3: you're right. I do think that the McVeigh anecdote is
Speaker 3: interesting with him always resting his team during the preseason
Speaker 3: and then up until this season being five to zero
Speaker 3: against the spread in Week one, where his team's historically,
Speaker 3: and so maybe this is just a McVay specific thing
Speaker 3: where whatever it is, something that they're doing in training camp.
Speaker 3: His teams normally are sharp in the first couple of
Speaker 3: weeks of the season, even though they're not getting that action.
Speaker 3: But I do think that we haven't seen enough of
Speaker 3: a sample to be able to say that other coaches
Speaker 3: have the ability to replicate what McVeigh has done. He
Speaker 3: might be the outlier.
Speaker 1: The other flip side here to this argument is you
Speaker 1: look at the Packers. They get shellacked twice in a
Speaker 1: row in Week one now going back to last season,
Speaker 1: but what else did the Packers do last year? They
Speaker 1: won the NFC, they were the one seed. It's it
Speaker 1: is that question of does the preseason rest make you
Speaker 1: sharper later in the season?
Speaker 3: Is it?
Speaker 1: By that point it doesn't really matter, and that you've
Speaker 1: gone over the course of a whole season and on aggregate,
Speaker 1: the rest in the beginning there doesn't affect you. By then,
Speaker 1: who's to say? I'm not sure. I'm not claiming that
Speaker 1: I know the answer, and I'm saying that teams should
Speaker 1: or shouldn't start their starters in the preseason and.
Speaker 2: In general, what we're seeing in Week one too. I think,
Speaker 2: why we see the underdogs do so well everybody. I
Speaker 2: know this is gonna be coach speak and a cliche.
Speaker 2: We're all zero and zero, but in reality they are
Speaker 2: in Week one. So you get all these teams, and
Speaker 2: you know, I had a couple ugly underdogs. Unfortunately Tom's
Speaker 2: Jets didn't get there. For me, that was the outlier,
Speaker 2: but most of these bad underdogs actually did get there
Speaker 2: because you had the Bears and the Seahawks. You know,
Speaker 2: those are two examples, and those are two teams that
Speaker 2: I don't think are gonna be very good. So I
Speaker 2: don't think you want to say, okay, really upgrade these
Speaker 2: guys because they got to win in Week one. I
Speaker 2: still think they're bad teams. But when you get here
Speaker 2: heard all summer that you know you're getting crapped on,
Speaker 2: and you got schmucks like me that are betting Bears
Speaker 2: for the worst record at twelve to one at the
Speaker 2: end of the season, and they come out and play
Speaker 2: very well. It's kind of a perfect storm for some
Speaker 2: of these road favorites to go out and lay an
Speaker 2: egg a little bit in Week one. Denver, of course,
Speaker 2: did it on Monday night, not the best performance for
Speaker 2: Nathaniel Hackett. I'm not willing to fire him and call
Speaker 2: him the worst coach ever after week one. But it
Speaker 2: wasn't just the end. There was some questionable you know,
Speaker 2: designs there on the goal line. So it was a
Speaker 2: bad performance. I'm willing at least to dismiss it as
Speaker 2: that from week one. So that's why you don't necessarily
Speaker 2: want to overreact. But going back to what you said
Speaker 2: about the Chiefs, Look, they were very sharp, and I
Speaker 2: was wondering, Okay, have we downgraded the Chiefs too much,
Speaker 2: or that we upgraded the rest of the Vision just
Speaker 2: to say that they got better, because all the rest
Speaker 2: of the Vision teams obviously made very notable acquisitions.
Speaker 1: You completely hit the nail on the head with the
Speaker 1: wildness of week one and Nathaniel Hackett's schemes being a
Speaker 1: little suspected. I'm willing to say that you should probably
Speaker 1: be fired if you run out of the shotgun on
Speaker 1: the goal line. I don't think you should have a
Speaker 1: job in the NFL. That's just my opinion here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I look, I'm old school in that way. It's like, Okay,
Speaker 2: there are some times, yeah, you can run pistol or
Speaker 2: something like that. But a lot of times, you know,
Speaker 2: hat on hat, and I mean, I know that sounds like,
Speaker 2: you know, I'm back in the stone Age here saying that.
Speaker 2: But it's like, line up, get me a yard, get
Speaker 2: me in the end zone. And sometimes it is that simple,
Speaker 2: and we over complicate things in this game.
Speaker 1: I just loved the Twitter takes of oh why is
Speaker 1: Belvin Gordon running that ball at the one? It should
Speaker 1: be Javonte Williams. He doesn't fumble that. He doesn't fumble that.
Speaker 1: Oh man, that was pretty sweet. Some instant karma watching
Speaker 1: that happen. But right now, guys, let's dive into some
Speaker 1: Week two. We've spent enough time talking about what was.
Speaker 1: We need to talk about what will be. And let's
Speaker 1: start off with two teams that frankly I am struggling
Speaker 1: to get a read on here. Through one week. We
Speaker 1: have the New England Patriots at the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers,
Speaker 1: of course, we're able to win that overtime Cincinnati game
Speaker 1: that nobody really seemed to want to win. The Patriots
Speaker 1: got shellacked by the Dolphins yet again. Bet MGM has
Speaker 1: this line at Patriots minus two on the road and Matt,
Speaker 1: what are you thinking here as far as the side
Speaker 1: in this game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like the Steelers in this spot, and you
Speaker 3: know there are matchups in it that I like, but
Speaker 3: a lot of it is just Tomlin as a dog
Speaker 3: and Tomlin at home right as an underdog, He's forty
Speaker 3: six twenty three and two against the spread for his career,
Speaker 3: Like that is a phenomenal record at home, sixty three
Speaker 3: fifty five and three, and you put it together, Tomlin
Speaker 3: as a home underdog is fourteen three and two against
Speaker 3: the spread. I think the I know TJ. Watt is out,
Speaker 3: that definitely hurts this defense. And I think Watt is
Speaker 3: worth maybe a point a point and a half to
Speaker 3: the spread. He's one of the few non quarterbacks who
Speaker 3: actually makes an impact against the line. But I still
Speaker 3: think that the Steelers have a little, I want to say,
Speaker 3: an advantage, but I don't think they are. They are
Speaker 3: as disadvantaged as people expect them to be without TJ. Watt.
Speaker 3: So last year, the Patriots had one of the best
Speaker 3: rushing offenses in the league. The Steelers had a mediocre
Speaker 3: at best run defense in Week one, though it looked
Speaker 3: pretty different against the rebuilt Bengals offensive line. The Steelers
Speaker 3: defensive front seven. They were pretty strong. They held running
Speaker 3: back Joe Mix into just three yards per carry on
Speaker 3: twenty seven attempts. And like the Bengals the Patriots, they
Speaker 3: altered their offensive line this offseason. They traded guard Shack Mason,
Speaker 3: they lost left guards Ted Carris, they moved offensive tackle
Speaker 3: Trent Trent Brown and and Isaiah Win switched them switch
Speaker 3: sides to left tackle, the right tackling right tackle, the
Speaker 3: left tackle Michael and Wenu. He went from right tackle
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty and left guard and right tackle last
Speaker 3: year to right guard. And then they drafted Cole Strange.
Speaker 3: So they have a significantly rebuilt offensive line. And on
Speaker 3: top of that, they shifted away this offseason from a
Speaker 3: gap heavy power rushing scheme to a Shanahan style zone
Speaker 3: blocking scheme. And it's not to say that they are
Speaker 3: all zone blocking now, but they have moved in that
Speaker 3: direction and the results were not positive. In Week one,
Speaker 3: They're running backs combined for just seventy one yards on
Speaker 3: nineteen carries. And TJ. Watt, you know, obviously great player,
Speaker 3: defensive Player of the Year. Where he makes the biggest
Speaker 3: difference is as a pass rusher, not as a run defender.
Speaker 3: The Steelers still have Cameron Hayward, Larry Ogunjobi, Chris Wormley,
Speaker 3: Tyson Alua Luo. They have those guys in the interior
Speaker 3: to be able to challenge the Patriots in the trenches.
Speaker 3: And I think with the Patriots, especially with Mac Jones
Speaker 3: having the back issue that he's dealing with, I think
Speaker 3: they're going to lean all the more into the running game.
Speaker 3: Not as if they need much of an excuse to
Speaker 3: lean on the running game anyway, that's what their offense
Speaker 3: is predicated on. I just don't know how much success
Speaker 3: they are going to have running the ball against the
Speaker 3: Steelers front, and even without TJ. Watt, I think they're
Speaker 3: still going to be able to assert themselves in that way.
Speaker 3: So I think this is a closer game than not
Speaker 3: a closer game than people would expect. But I think
Speaker 3: the Steelers are able to keep it close and I
Speaker 3: think they should actually be favored in this spot.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Ah no, I was gonna say for me, even
Speaker 2: though it's dropped a little bit, I still like the
Speaker 2: total at under forty and a half. I still think
Speaker 2: that there is a little bit of value there. Even
Speaker 2: though forty one is kind of an old key number
Speaker 2: with totals, but maybe not in the new NFL with
Speaker 2: more possessions and obviously more kicking gain problems with the
Speaker 2: extra points being missed. But I still think that the
Speaker 2: under can be sponsored here because if you look at
Speaker 2: the Patriots now second straight road game, only scored seven
Speaker 2: in Miami. This isn't a recent pattern though for the Patriots.
Speaker 2: If you go back all the way to two twenty sixteen,
Speaker 2: I think Patriots on the road correlating that with the unders,
Speaker 2: it hits like two thirds of the time. This is
Speaker 2: going back to Tom Brady being the quarterback in Foxborough, so
Speaker 2: this isn't just exclusively a mac Jones thing. I thought
Speaker 2: the Patriots defense was a little bit better in the
Speaker 2: second half. They had only allowed like seventy yards until
Speaker 2: they fumbled at the end trying to get it to
Speaker 2: a one score game, and then Miami was just able
Speaker 2: to run out the clock with fifty more yards. But
Speaker 2: I thought the defense was okay. Patriots still struggled to
Speaker 2: run the ball. They really struggled to run the ball
Speaker 2: in the preseason. I think the rise in the line
Speaker 2: because it was down at one and a half. Now
Speaker 2: you're seeing some two and even some two and a
Speaker 2: half in the market. I think it's because they think
Speaker 2: mac Jones is going to go ahead and play here,
Speaker 2: so they're not have to go to Brian Hoyer, Whereas
Speaker 2: I think if they went with Brian Hoyer, then the
Speaker 2: Steelers absolutely would be favorites, and there may be a
Speaker 2: discussion of whether they should be or not. So Steelers
Speaker 2: on a teaser leg I think would make sense. I
Speaker 2: don't know if I'm willing to take the two, but
Speaker 2: I like these teasers. And that's kind of a general
Speaker 2: point I want to make about these Wollteezers, which historically
Speaker 2: are very good obviously teasing through the three and the seven,
Speaker 2: even though those numbers may not be as key as
Speaker 2: they were even five or ten years ago. But I
Speaker 2: think those numbers are more key when you have lower totals,
Speaker 2: because I think we could use last Thursday Night's game
Speaker 2: as an example. Those six points don't have as much
Speaker 2: value when you have one of the top offenses like
Speaker 2: a Buffalo, like a Kansas City, But when you have
Speaker 2: these teams that are more middle of the pack or
Speaker 2: even down below the Mendoza line on offense and you
Speaker 2: have these low totals, then those Wolteezers are going to matter.
Speaker 2: And I think you saw that materialize in that Cleveland
Speaker 2: Carolina game last week.
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, absolutely.
Speaker 1: Well, Wes, you talk about potential teaser spots if you're
Speaker 1: looking for something to pair the Steelers with the Saints
Speaker 1: at two and a half or someone, have your eye
Speaker 1: on here against the Bucks.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I bet three already, and you know, I think
Speaker 2: you might see three again depending on what the injury
Speaker 2: report is for Campa Bay. But I just look at
Speaker 2: the fact that now they're left tackle is questionable. They
Speaker 2: already lost Ryan Jens and they already lost Aaron Stinny.
Speaker 2: We know that they were replacing guys on the O
Speaker 2: line anyway. Shaq Mason is new, even though TV twelve
Speaker 2: has played with him for years up in New England.
Speaker 2: But this offensive line, and I think you saw the
Speaker 2: game plan. I don't even think it was just game
Speaker 2: specific against Dallas. I think Tampa Bay is going to
Speaker 2: try to run the ball a little bit more this year.
Speaker 2: And I think that's the direction of Tom Brady's saying, Okay,
Speaker 2: let's mix it up because all these great quarterbacks, everybody
Speaker 2: thinks that Okay, they want to pile up these stats
Speaker 2: and whatnot. All the elite quarterbacks, Manny Brady, you know, Mahomes,
Speaker 2: all these rogers are like, hey, let's run the ball
Speaker 2: a little bit more because they don't want to get hit,
Speaker 2: especially if they're not confident about the offensive line. So
Speaker 2: I still think even when Godwin gets back, I think
Speaker 2: he's going to be out for this one. But even
Speaker 2: when he gets back, I don't expect you're going to
Speaker 2: see Tom Brady throwing the ball thirty five forty times.
Speaker 2: He led the league in pass attempts last year at
Speaker 2: forty four years old. I don't think Leftwich and Todd
Speaker 2: Bowles and more specifically Tom Brady want that to happen again.
Speaker 2: So you're going to see them run the ball. And
Speaker 2: I think the Saints pass rush can be dangerous, even
Speaker 2: though they had zero sacks last week. But you get Davenport,
Speaker 2: you get Jordan, They've been able to get pressure on
Speaker 2: Tom Brady and he they've really kind of been as
Speaker 2: scryptonite except for that playoff game. In the regular season,
Speaker 2: the Saints have really owned these guys. And I know
Speaker 2: kind of a you know, not complete performance from New
Speaker 2: Orleans in Week one in Atlanta, but they did come
Speaker 2: back from down sixteen, so sometimes there's something to be
Speaker 2: said for momentum. So I think the Saints could absolutely
Speaker 2: be a teaser piece with the Steelers one we'll get
Speaker 2: to later too. With the Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 1: I'm completely with you here. I was actually listening to
Speaker 1: our friends over with our sister at Fantasy Pros Joe Pi,
Speaker 1: Sapia and Andrew Er. We're talking earlier on their show
Speaker 1: about the Saints defense is kind of built to stop
Speaker 1: Tom Brady. When they face a mobile quarterback like Marcus Mariota,
Speaker 1: they don't quite know what to do and they struggle
Speaker 1: a little bit there. But take those struggles against the
Speaker 1: Falcons with a grain of salt. And also, I think
Speaker 1: Jamis Winston started to look good. You break down that
Speaker 1: fourth quarter, two hundred passing yards, two touchdowns. He figured
Speaker 1: it out in the fourth and part of that is
Speaker 1: getting comfortable with his new receivers. Michael Thomas didn't really
Speaker 1: get a chance to play with him at all. Chris
Speaker 1: Alave obviously knew he's got a new suite of weapons
Speaker 1: to work with, and I think we're only going to
Speaker 1: see him improve over time. Here matt Any thought on
Speaker 1: the Saints.
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, with Wes, I have them in the betting
Speaker 3: pros app at Saints plus three, I bet it on
Speaker 3: the look aheadline because I thought this line would move down.
Speaker 3: I didn't think there it was going to move up.
Speaker 3: I thought, if anything, it would move down. And we
Speaker 3: have seen that the matchup between Marshaun Lattimore and Mike
Speaker 3: Evans is must watch TV two times a year. Those
Speaker 3: guys legitimate hate each other, and for some reason, even
Speaker 3: though Latimore is not a big guy, he has been
Speaker 3: able historically, with the exception of a couple of games,
Speaker 3: he has been able to neutralize Mike Evans, which really
Speaker 3: changes the structure of what the Buccaneers are able to
Speaker 3: do on offense. And that really is the key for
Speaker 3: the Saints here. So I do like them, like Wes
Speaker 3: at this number of plus three.
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Speaker 1: had Captain Jack on. He talked about a bridge too
Speaker 1: far and how some line movements are just a little
Speaker 1: bit too far and they come back the other way.
Speaker 1: By the way, fantastic show. Check that out once you're
Speaker 1: done here. But one of those games that he said
Speaker 1: would go too far was the Rams versus the Falcons.
Speaker 1: It moved ten and a half very briefly, but it's
Speaker 1: back down to ten at bet MGM. The Rams, of
Speaker 1: course favored in Sofi Stadium here. I personally like them
Speaker 1: to come off the mat after that shellacking by Buffalo.
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna come out strong, and I think
Speaker 1: we're gonna see the Falcons regressing a little bit. But Matt,
Speaker 1: you particularly have a leen in this game, and it
Speaker 1: is towards the Rams as well.
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, I like the Rams. You know, ten and
Speaker 3: a half is I believe that is the number that
Speaker 3: I'm seeing in the market. If there's a ten out there,
Speaker 3: I think it's an auto bet to be able to
Speaker 3: have the opportunity to push at that key number.
Speaker 1: I am looking at a ten right now on bet
Speaker 1: MGM as we speak.
Speaker 3: That's wonderful. Yes, I love the Rams here at ten.
Speaker 3: I Honestly, I'm surprised it got to ten. The Rams
Speaker 3: are dealing with some injuries, you know, Logan Bus, Ryan Allen,
Speaker 3: Joseph Noteboom, Like they're missing some offensive lineman Van Jefferson.
Speaker 3: You know, their wide receiver is out there. Their long
Speaker 3: snapper didn't practice on Wednesday. Uh uh, that feels like
Speaker 3: that might be like one of those like very sneakily
Speaker 3: important injuries. So like, you know, let's monitor to see
Speaker 3: what's going on with.
Speaker 1: Him, as the Bengals well learned last week.
Speaker 3: Yes, so you know, monitor the injury situation for the Rams.
Speaker 3: But I don't know, man, I think this is an
Speaker 3: overreaction to two things, you know, like what we saw
Speaker 3: out of the Rams in week one and what we
Speaker 3: saw out of the Falcons. But this line was thirteen
Speaker 3: and a half in the off season look ahead market
Speaker 3: last Thursday, in the you know, the week ahead look
Speaker 3: ahead market, it was thirteen and when it opened it
Speaker 3: was I believe eleven and a half, and you know,
Speaker 3: now it's down. I think this is this is too much.
Speaker 3: Sean McVeigh eight and three against the spread in weeks
Speaker 3: one and two. That's sort of like the golden time
Speaker 3: to bet On McVeigh. Like all other periods of the season,
Speaker 3: he's basically five hundred against the spread to start the
Speaker 3: season is when McVeigh does his best, and he's eleven
Speaker 3: and six against the spread off a loss. You know,
Speaker 3: I think the key for this game is Cooper Cup
Speaker 3: going against two slot cornerbacks who were horrifyingly overmatched. Right, Like,
Speaker 3: we know who Cooper Cup is. If he's not the
Speaker 3: best receiver in the league, he's one of the best.
Speaker 3: The Falcons defense is horrible against the pass. Last year
Speaker 3: was number twenty nine in past DVOA. Last week it
Speaker 3: was number thirty. We have, you know, our internal power
Speaker 3: rankings of the different units, and the Rams pass catchers
Speaker 3: have a very significant edge over the Falcon secondary. They
Speaker 3: have strength on the perimeter. Aj Terrell and Casey Hayward
Speaker 3: are good cover corners. But Cup lines up in the
Speaker 3: slot and that's where d Alford lined up last week.
Speaker 3: An undrafted rookie good luck putting him there, and journeyman
Speaker 3: Mike Ford, who is allowed nine point nine yards per
Speaker 3: target for his career. It doesn't matter which one of
Speaker 3: those guys is out there, neither one of them is
Speaker 3: going to be able to manage Cooper Cup. So I
Speaker 3: think that is just that's one of the keys to
Speaker 3: this matchup. But I think Cup goes off again and
Speaker 3: I think the Rams punish the Falcons for the sins
Speaker 3: of the Bills last week.
Speaker 1: I think the other big factor here is that pass rush,
Speaker 1: like you talk about. For the Rams, Aaron Donald isn't
Speaker 1: going to have problems with a mobile quarterback. I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to get to Mariota and Whigs.
Speaker 1: The Saints just wearing't wes any thoughts on this one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, ultimately it's a pass but if I were to
Speaker 2: play it, I would rather lay it with the Rams,
Speaker 2: especially at ten with that over adjustment. I think on
Speaker 2: the look aheadline, Falcons just aren't a team I'm necessarily
Speaker 2: interested in backing at this standpoint. In Tom, I think
Speaker 2: you hit it in terms of the fact that they're
Speaker 2: kind of a tricky matchup for the Saints because they're,
Speaker 2: you know, Mariota's quarterback. They can get out of the pocket,
Speaker 2: but you know, Mariota's a guy that will turn it
Speaker 2: over to you if you let him, and he did
Speaker 2: it a couple times last week. I think he could
Speaker 2: do it a couple times. Again. I want to see
Speaker 2: that Rams. This is what I'm waiting to see. I
Speaker 2: want to see if that Rams offensive line, if that
Speaker 2: was like, okay, they've got legit issues even though they
Speaker 2: return to everybody except No Boom is new and No
Speaker 2: Boom I think was very capable and relief last year.
Speaker 2: So I was a little bit surprised to see those guys
Speaker 2: give up seven sacks, even though Buffalo has a pretty
Speaker 2: good pass rush. So I want to see if that
Speaker 2: was an aberration or if that was a trend. Atlanta,
Speaker 2: interestingly enough, did put up four sacks. But to Matt's point,
Speaker 2: this secondary, if they don't get home on the pass rush,
Speaker 2: this secondary is absolutely going to be hurting. And I
Speaker 2: don't think maybe you know, Matthew Stafford doesn't even have
Speaker 2: to go with deep balls. He can go underneath the
Speaker 2: cup or Scroronic or some of those guys hit Higbee
Speaker 2: and just kind of work the middle of the field
Speaker 2: and get yards after catch on these guys. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I'd rather lay it rather than play it. But I
Speaker 2: think I'm going to stay out as.
Speaker 1: A Cooper Cup fantasy owner. I'm very excited for this game,
Speaker 1: but a game that I am not excited for at
Speaker 1: all is watching my Jets take on the Cleveland Browns.
Speaker 1: They are six point dogs in Cleveland, which will be
Speaker 1: sporting their new ELF mascot on the fifty yard line.
Speaker 1: As a general rule of gambling, I refuse to take
Speaker 1: a team. I will absolutely not lay a touchdown with
Speaker 1: a team with an Elf on its field. I'm taking
Speaker 1: Jets plus six solely off of that. Wes, You're also interested,
Speaker 1: but I feel you're gonna have a different take on
Speaker 1: why you like the Jets plus six in this one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and now you can get six and a half
Speaker 2: basically in the market, there's a couple of rogue sevens
Speaker 2: where it's just a little heavier on the Jets side,
Speaker 2: of course, on a key number. But you know the
Speaker 2: Jets last week, I'm not gonna be misled by the
Speaker 2: stats because they were down the whole game, even though
Speaker 2: it's ten three until Lamar hit that deep ball to
Speaker 2: du Verne and then it was all she wrote. But
Speaker 2: you know you're gonna see. Okay, the Jets out yarded Cleveland,
Speaker 2: but they ran twenty six more plays as well. But
Speaker 2: one thing about the Jets, I know Baltimore was down
Speaker 2: Dobbins and they were down edwards. But the Jets strength,
Speaker 2: as you know tom is against the run defensively, so
Speaker 2: I still think even if those guys were to play
Speaker 2: that was they were going to have a pretty good
Speaker 2: performance against the run. Baltimore really didn't do a lot
Speaker 2: except for a couple of big plays, but that was enough.
Speaker 2: And obviously you don't want Joe Flacco throwing at fifty
Speaker 2: nine times a game. That is not a recipe for success.
Speaker 2: But it's really what I'm looking at with Cleveland, and
Speaker 2: I thought Cleveland was the better team against against Carolina.
Speaker 2: They got that running game going early and that's what
Speaker 2: allowed him to keep the lead for most of the
Speaker 2: game until the end when they had to have that
Speaker 2: fifty eight yarder. But Carolina was much the better team
Speaker 2: in the second half. I felt Cleveland was good in
Speaker 2: the first half, and then when I look, it's like,
Speaker 2: do I really want to lay a touchdown with Jacoby
Speaker 2: brisaid here eighteen to thirty four for one forty seven
Speaker 2: and a touchdown. This is not the Jacoby Brissett that
Speaker 2: was in Indianapolis. When Andrew Luck announced his retirement basically
Speaker 2: two weeks before the regular season was to start. You
Speaker 2: saw him in Miami. He's had some injuries. He looked
Speaker 2: a little bit slower, a little bit less athletic, and
Speaker 2: you know they're going to try to rely on that
Speaker 2: running game, and that's not really the way you beat
Speaker 2: the Jets. I think the Jets can absolutely hold up
Speaker 2: up front, so Brissette is going to have to make plays.
Speaker 2: Didn't really make a ton of plays in the passing game.
Speaker 2: There's a lot of short passing to the running backs
Speaker 2: to green hunt out of the backfield, trying to hit
Speaker 2: the tight ends over the middle. You didn't really see
Speaker 2: him take any deep shots necessarily. So this number just
Speaker 2: looks a little bit too big for me. And plus
Speaker 2: the emotion of Cleveland because everybody, you know, whenever you
Speaker 2: talk about a revenge game for a player, it's always
Speaker 2: one side of the coin and they don't look at
Speaker 2: the other side. They're like, oh, Baker Mayfield wants to
Speaker 2: beat his old team's ass. You know, It's like, you
Speaker 2: don't think they want to kick Bakers, but too of
Speaker 2: their former quarterback and be like, yeah, man, the grass
Speaker 2: end greener on the other side here, pal. So you
Speaker 2: know that's what I think got to kind of happen there.
Speaker 2: So Cleveland comes off a little bit of an emotional,
Speaker 2: kind of a personal win in week one, and you
Speaker 2: get the Jets, who you know aren't very good. They're
Speaker 2: having Joe Flacco as well past his prime. But I
Speaker 2: think this number. Once you see seven, and I think
Speaker 2: you'll see seven at maybe some of the more of
Speaker 2: the Squares stores, I think they'll get gobbled up very quickly.
Speaker 2: I like the Jets.
Speaker 1: If I can get seven in this game, I'd be
Speaker 1: through the roof. But your point about Jacoby Brissette having
Speaker 1: to make plays, I like Lamar Jackson to make plays,
Speaker 1: especially against the Jets. I think the Jets defense can
Speaker 1: handle Jacoby Brissett.
Speaker 2: Matte Brissette is what I've always said about him. He's
Speaker 2: a good enough guy not to lose a game for you,
Speaker 2: but he's not good enough to go win it for you,
Speaker 2: whereas Lamar Jackson last week was good enough with two plays. Basically,
Speaker 2: you go win the game for him.
Speaker 1: He's a bus driver. You trust him to get the
Speaker 1: kids to school, but you're not giving him the keys
Speaker 1: to a Formula one car.
Speaker 2: Absolutely.
Speaker 1: What do you think, Matt, what do you think about
Speaker 1: this game?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I have the Jets as five point underdogs, and
Speaker 3: so if it got to seven, I would I would
Speaker 3: bet it. You know, given that I can get the
Speaker 3: push on the key number underneath that, I probably still
Speaker 3: like technically should bet it. But I just don't like
Speaker 3: this Jets team enough to do that. I that's a
Speaker 3: fair point.
Speaker 1: I can't find a hole in that argument to me, though,
Speaker 1: Like it goes back to that being a Jets fan.
Speaker 1: There's three weeks every season where the Jets randomly just
Speaker 1: get up and go win a game they shouldn't win.
Speaker 1: And I feel it in my gut that this is
Speaker 1: that kind of game. I think that this is one
Speaker 1: of those spots where we're going to be getting some
Speaker 1: Survivor contestants knocked out again because they just fade the
Speaker 1: Jets and think, oh, I'm not going to take Cleveland
Speaker 1: later in the season, I'll take them now. I think
Speaker 1: the Jets are fully capable of winning this game outright,
Speaker 1: I mean, I.
Speaker 3: Think that's fair. I looked at the Browns and I
Speaker 3: don't think that they're all that great of a team.
Speaker 3: Like They've They've got pieces, they certainly have players, but
Speaker 3: their offense is really bogged down because of the quarterback situation.
Speaker 3: That said, I think they'll probably be able to run
Speaker 3: the ball, and I think that kind of I wouldn't
Speaker 3: say that matters the most, but I think their offense
Speaker 3: will look competent because of their running game and they
Speaker 3: don't have to rely too much on their quarterback. I
Speaker 3: think they hide perset in this game.
Speaker 1: If only they could have foreseen quarterback issues coming and
Speaker 1: done something to avoid those. I don't know, but the
Speaker 1: next game up, speaking of quarterbacks, here we've got Derek
Speaker 1: Carr going up against Kyler Murray and the new Call
Speaker 1: of Duty did just have its announcement trailers coming out today.
Speaker 1: That's got to worry you a little bit if you're
Speaker 1: taking the Cardinals here plus six versus the Raiders. Right now,
Speaker 1: let me see the most updated line here are friends
Speaker 1: at BETTMGM have this down to five and a half,
Speaker 1: and are you still interested in betting this game in
Speaker 1: this spot Matt with at five and a half?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have a ticket at five and a half.
Speaker 3: I mean, this one scares me because I have it
Speaker 3: power rated at one and a half, and like, this
Speaker 3: is out of all of the games I have this week,
Speaker 3: this is the one where I am way off of
Speaker 3: the market. For most of them, I'm at market or
Speaker 3: at the most like two points off, but this one,
Speaker 3: I'm four points off, and I think it's you know,
Speaker 3: I think it's an overreaction to the game that we
Speaker 3: saw last week. And you know, I think that there's
Speaker 3: a chance that some of these guys who were out
Speaker 3: last week end up coming back this week, specifically JJ Watt,
Speaker 3: which you know, like that would be that would be significant.
Speaker 3: But one of the big things for me is that
Speaker 3: this this feels like a yo yo type of game,
Speaker 3: like like Cliff Kingsbury, like he is a zig zag
Speaker 3: kind of coach, Like you clearly bet against him when
Speaker 3: he's at home or when he's favored, you historically bet
Speaker 3: on him when he's on the road or an underdog,
Speaker 3: and he's both in this situation, and so it's a
Speaker 3: really good thing. Like seventeen six and two against the
Speaker 3: spread on the road, eighteen eight and two against the
Speaker 3: spread as an underdog, you put it together. As a
Speaker 3: road dog, Kingsbury is an outrageous thirteen three and two
Speaker 3: against the spread. And the Raiders have some negative trends
Speaker 3: of their own, specifically Derek Carr, who is thirteen twenty
Speaker 3: three and one against the spread as a favorite, it
Speaker 3: gets worse as a favorite against the team that went
Speaker 3: to the playoffs last year. He has won six and
Speaker 3: one against the spread. It's not good. I think the
Speaker 3: matchup for this game is Kyler Murray versus that Raiders
Speaker 3: coverage unit. Say whatever you want about Murray, the call
Speaker 3: of duty jokes, which are fantastic.
Speaker 1: By the way, this weekend, Yeah all I'm saying.
Speaker 3: I know, I know. It does make me nervous. I
Speaker 3: should have checked the release schedule. The perennial second half
Speaker 3: fall off with Kyler Murray, like that's a real thing.
Speaker 3: But he's a top ten quarterback, still a top ten quarterback,
Speaker 3: especially early in the year before he's accumulated all the
Speaker 3: hits that come with the NFL season. And yes, he's
Speaker 3: without perimeter wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins Antoine Wesley. He might
Speaker 3: also be without slot wide receiver Rondell Moore. But given
Speaker 3: how Greg Dortch I can't believe I'm saying Greg Dorsch's name,
Speaker 3: But given how Dorsch played last last week, the loss
Speaker 3: of ron del Moore might not be as big as
Speaker 3: I would have anticipated. But the Raiders also have issues.
Speaker 3: In Week one, they allowed Justin Herbert to go off
Speaker 3: seventy six point five percent completion rate ten adjusted yards
Speaker 3: per attempt. They were number thirty in drop back EPA
Speaker 3: per play. And it's not as if they were great
Speaker 3: in pass defense. Last year they were number twenty six
Speaker 3: and drop back EPA per play. And part of the
Speaker 3: challenge for the Raiders is that they've experienced heavy turnover
Speaker 3: this offseason at cornerback, so their back end unit doesn't
Speaker 3: have great cohesion. Last year, their top perimeter corners were
Speaker 3: Casey Hayward, Trayvon Mollin, Brandon Fashion and Desmond Truefonts. All
Speaker 3: of those guys are gone. They've replaced them with Rokisin
Speaker 3: and Anthony Everett. But Everett he's already out with an injury,
Speaker 3: which means last year's number five perimeter cornerback for the
Speaker 3: team is now starting. That is really bad. And they
Speaker 3: have slot cornerback Nate Hobbs, who is a twenty twenty
Speaker 3: one fifth rounder. He's okay, he keeps everything in front
Speaker 3: of him. The problem is he allows everything to be caught.
Speaker 3: He has an eighty one point four percent completion rate
Speaker 3: allowed for his career like Greg Derch could have twelve
Speaker 3: receptions in this game, and the safety duo of Jonathan
Speaker 3: Abram and Trevon morg mediocre I think at best. And
Speaker 3: Morgan has a hip injury he didn't practice on Wednesday,
Speaker 3: and off ball linebackered linebacker Denzel Perryman, he's their main
Speaker 3: off ball coverage backer. He also didn't practice on Wednesday
Speaker 3: with an ankle injury. So the and the players are
Speaker 3: adjusting to a new scheme under defensive coordinator Patrick Graham.
Speaker 3: So you put all that together and it just makes
Speaker 3: me skeptical about this Raiders secondary. And you know, I
Speaker 3: think this line is an overreaction. The offseason market had
Speaker 3: this line at two and a half. The Thursday look
Speaker 3: Ahead had this line still at two and a half.
Speaker 3: The market reopened at three on Sunday night, quickly moved
Speaker 3: to three and a half, and within twenty four hours
Speaker 3: it was at five and a half. And you know
Speaker 3: now bouncing around between five and six. Ah Man, I
Speaker 3: think it's just an overreaction to how bad the Cardinals
Speaker 3: looked against the Chiefs in Week one. I think these
Speaker 3: teams are pretty comparable, so I will be taking the Cardinals,
Speaker 3: but I do know I am way off from the
Speaker 3: market with my line here, and so if I'm wrong,
Speaker 3: and there's a decent chance i'm wrong. If I'm wrong,
Speaker 3: I will be quickly adjusting my power ratings for the
Speaker 3: Cardinals next week.
Speaker 1: I have a hard time envisioning the Raiders blowing any
Speaker 1: team out, and by definition, if they're going to win
Speaker 1: this game by around a touchdown, to me, that's as
Speaker 1: good as the Raiders can get when it comes to
Speaker 1: blowing anybody out. Like you said, with the secondary, their
Speaker 1: first round, their early round draft woes over the last
Speaker 1: several years have obliterated any ability for this secondary to
Speaker 1: be good. Like you said, they're using fifth round guys
Speaker 1: to try and plug these holes. That's not going to
Speaker 1: work for you moving forward. And also, JJ Watt Broke
Speaker 1: just a couple of minutes ago said he is expecting
Speaker 1: to play this weekend. He was back at practice today,
Speaker 1: so we can break that news here on this very
Speaker 1: much not live show. I think I'm with you here.
Speaker 1: I know you're lower on the Raiders than the market
Speaker 1: and maybe than myself even personally I can't. I will
Speaker 1: be taking five and a half points if I can
Speaker 1: get them. With the Cardinals, especially if I can get
Speaker 1: six wes. What do you think.
Speaker 2: Cardinals are nothing for me? For all the four reasons
Speaker 2: of aforementioned reasons that Matt talked about. Just the Raiders
Speaker 2: with that secondary not a team that you really want
Speaker 2: to lay as a big favorite. I think the Raiders are,
Speaker 2: you know, by and large this season, they're gonna be
Speaker 2: live as underdogs because they just get They can throw
Speaker 2: the ball, and they can gain chunk yardage plays in
Speaker 2: the passing game, so they're always going to be kind
Speaker 2: of live. Even though they didn't quite get there last
Speaker 2: week against the Chargers, certainly had a lot of opportunities
Speaker 2: to do so in the fourth quarter. But with Arizona,
Speaker 2: I think, look, everybody was down on them. The market
Speaker 2: was down on them, and look I didn't like them,
Speaker 2: even though I didn't bet any of their season wins,
Speaker 2: either over or under. The market was down on them
Speaker 2: because the whole Kyler thing, because of how long it took,
Speaker 2: and because of the fact that they just left you
Speaker 2: with a bad feeling at the end of the season.
Speaker 2: And sometimes that carries over. But usually with Arizona they're
Speaker 2: quick starters and slow finishers historically, and then they get
Speaker 2: beat last week by a very sharp Kansas City team,
Speaker 2: and you know, maybe it's just that they got beat
Speaker 2: by a really good team even though it was a
Speaker 2: very comfortable win. This is a big overreaction from the
Speaker 2: look aheadline. And you know, usually when you see look
Speaker 2: aheadline to what it reopens on Sunday evening and early
Speaker 2: Monday morning, usually you're getting a point point and a
Speaker 2: half adjustment. You're not getting over a field goal adjustment here.
Speaker 2: So yeah, this is Cardinals or nothing for me. This
Speaker 2: was a game I was looking to stay away from.
Speaker 2: But as I kind of look at it a little
Speaker 2: bit more, I'm starting to like the road underdog.
Speaker 1: If you want to win a sign Joe Mixon Cincinnati
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Speaker 1: are up and to claim your prize. From one team
Speaker 1: that left the Bay Area to another, the Santa Clara
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers they opened around ten points. This line
Speaker 1: is fluctuated from nine to nine and a half up
Speaker 1: to ten. BETMGM now has it at eight and a
Speaker 1: half point points as home favorites against the Seahawks this week.
Speaker 1: And you want to talk about overreactions, this, to me
Speaker 1: is a huge overreaction to the Seahawks win on Monday night.
Speaker 1: First off, your two goal line fumbles away from the
Speaker 1: story of this game being completely different. And then I also,
Speaker 1: as much as I don't want to lay more than
Speaker 1: a touchdown with the forty nine ers, all I saw
Speaker 1: Monday night from the Seahawks was ten. Their strategy was
Speaker 1: allowed the Broncos running backs to break off as many
Speaker 1: ten plus yard runs as possible so that they'd be
Speaker 1: tired on the goal line and fumble. That seems to
Speaker 1: be what they were working with. Be is they were
Speaker 1: getting gashed in the run game, which is what the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers are going to do against this team. Wes,
Speaker 1: what are you thinking here with the forty nine ers.
Speaker 1: You like them at nine, so I'm sure you like
Speaker 1: them at eight and a half in this spot, and
Speaker 1: I'm inclined to be right there with you.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, if you look at this, and I
Speaker 2: was on the Bears last week just because I kind
Speaker 2: of thought it was a perfect storm. Lance only making
Speaker 2: a second road start. No, George, get George. Kittle's going
Speaker 2: to need to be Trey Lance's best friend at least
Speaker 2: early on in this season for his development. But I
Speaker 2: felt a little bit fortunate to get home with Chicago
Speaker 2: for the full game in the second half, because keep
Speaker 2: in mind, they were down seven tough, and then San
Speaker 2: Francisco goes and gets three right away on the first drive,
Speaker 2: so it's ten enough and the Bears had done nothing.
Speaker 2: Once the Bears decided they were going to play school
Speaker 2: yard ball with Justin Fields and get him out of
Speaker 2: the pocket and get the Niners defense, which is pretty
Speaker 2: fast for Demiko Ryans moving in a different direction, then
Speaker 2: all of a sudden, you saw the Bears move the football.
Speaker 2: But if you look at the stats and the box score,
Speaker 2: three thirty one to two h three yard advantage for
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers four point nine yards of play,
Speaker 2: which is not great, but three point six is even
Speaker 2: worse for the Chicago side, and yet somehow lost a
Speaker 2: six and a half seven point favorites. Bad weather conditions
Speaker 2: as well there in Chicago, so I felt that that
Speaker 2: was kind of an equalizer. Meanwhile, you look at Seattle,
Speaker 2: and I was on the Seahawks on Monday night, felt
Speaker 2: very fortunate to get that home. I think Seattle kind
Speaker 2: of early on really surprised Denver letting Gino get out
Speaker 2: of the pocket, get him on the move and throwing
Speaker 2: the ball. I don't think Denver was expecting that, and
Speaker 2: I think that kind of set the tone for the
Speaker 2: game for Seattle to hang around. But if you look
Speaker 2: at the numbers, four hundred and thirty three yards for Denver,
Speaker 2: two point fifty three for Seattle, Seattle did very little
Speaker 2: in the second half, So this could be I think
Speaker 2: that kind of like Bylaw or that by low Spot
Speaker 2: here for San Francisco. I know a lot of the
Speaker 2: market I don't think is gonna want to lay that
Speaker 2: with Trey Lance. So like for some of these favorites,
Speaker 2: I don't expect this to be a very popular favorite
Speaker 2: in either the Circumvillion or the Super Contest, or any
Speaker 2: any of Pick's contests throughout the week. I think they're
Speaker 2: very lukewarm on Trey Lance because look, whenever the Twitter
Speaker 2: you know heard basically has an opinion on one side.
Speaker 2: And look, I'm kind of mixed on Trey Lance, to
Speaker 2: be honest with you, But everybody was like, that's why
Speaker 2: they kept Jimmy G. That's why they kept Jimmy G.
Speaker 2: The guy has one bad game. So when you get
Speaker 2: the Twitter cacophony, I guess on one side, I'm tending
Speaker 2: to look the opposite way. I think the forty nine
Speaker 2: ers could roll Seattle, even though this isn't as bad
Speaker 2: of a travel spot on a short week as it
Speaker 2: would normally be for the Seahawks. But I still don't
Speaker 2: think the Seahawks are good. I just think it was
Speaker 2: a good situation for him and Denver obviously shot themselves
Speaker 2: in the foot on many occasions on Monday Night.
Speaker 1: Trey Lance is absolutely bad. I will die on this hill.
Speaker 1: But Matt, I know that you are about to come
Speaker 1: in here and talk about Kyle Shanahan's record as a favorite,
Speaker 1: So why don't you lay the stats on us?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was busy looking that up. Yeah they're not pready, Yeah, no,
Speaker 3: really bad. I mean he and Cliff Kingsbury, it's like
Speaker 3: these guys are twins, all right. You bet Shanahan on
Speaker 3: the road, bet him as an underdog. You fade him
Speaker 3: at home, fade him as a favorite. As a home favorite.
Speaker 3: He is six fifteen and one against the spread. It is,
Speaker 3: and that's in the regular season. Absolutely atrocious. I mean
Speaker 3: that said, I have this line at nine point two five.
Speaker 3: So I'm like, I'm right in the vicinity of where
Speaker 3: it is in the market right now. I'm just staying away.
Speaker 3: I'm staying away.
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I can't. I don't want to bet
Speaker 1: on either side. I think that, like you said, Wes,
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers can low out the Seahawks. I
Speaker 1: also don't necessarily trust him to do it do it,
Speaker 1: so I'm gonna look elsewhere. Like this game of the
Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers going up against the New York Giants. Here
Speaker 1: Carolina getting two and a half bet MGM now has
Speaker 1: them more or less at two. Wes, are you still
Speaker 1: betting them at two?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would still bet at it two, and I
Speaker 2: would certainly use it as a teaser. And you know,
Speaker 2: I was on the Giants last week and they got
Speaker 2: out played in the first half, but then they came back.
Speaker 2: I thought they were the better team in the second half.
Speaker 2: Of course, Brian Dable making the decision to go for
Speaker 2: the lead, not necessarily the win because there was over
Speaker 2: a minute left and Randy Bullock did get a field
Speaker 2: goal attempt that he missed for Tennessee. But you know,
Speaker 2: you can kind of see it with the Giants and
Speaker 2: why I think a lot of us did like their
Speaker 2: season wins over at six and a half and seven.
Speaker 2: With Sakuon Barkley, I do think they're a little bit
Speaker 2: of a different team. I just you know, he can
Speaker 2: run the ball and he can catch the ball. He's
Speaker 2: very good in the passing game. Daniel Jones was actually
Speaker 2: efficient when he really looked at his numbers. But here's
Speaker 2: the bugaboo with him, and you saw it with Brian
Speaker 2: Dabole getting into it with him on the bench. He
Speaker 2: still turns the ball over way too much, and that's
Speaker 2: what he's trying to do. Daniel Jones has proven he
Speaker 2: can make plays and that he gets outside the pocket
Speaker 2: and he can find receivers. And the Giants historically, even
Speaker 2: when McAdoo was the coach, even when Joe Judge was
Speaker 2: the coach, very good road underdogs with some really bad
Speaker 2: teams over the last few years in New York. So
Speaker 2: they were in that preferred role. They got home against Tennessee.
Speaker 2: Now you go home, they're a home favorite. Keep in
Speaker 2: mind against Carolina last year when Carolina, I think it
Speaker 2: was Week seven, I think Carolina was on like a
Speaker 2: three game losing streak and Carolina was still laying a
Speaker 2: field goal at New York. Now I know New York
Speaker 2: had like no receivers hardly for that game, but still
Speaker 2: kind of a big difference at two and a half.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I do like Carolina. I think Carolina was better,
Speaker 2: Like I was saying in the second half, I think
Speaker 2: they were clearly the better team than Cleveland, and figure
Speaker 2: it out a little bit. And also, that was Mayfield
Speaker 2: going against his old teams, So the ducees were flowing
Speaker 2: and one of the things that you saw is he
Speaker 2: did fumble the ball four times. A couple of them
Speaker 2: were on that center quarterback exchange with the center pad
Speaker 2: Flne And I just think that's a chemistry thing that
Speaker 2: just takes time. And I think Mayfield was probably amped
Speaker 2: up and juiced up against his old team. So I
Speaker 2: would expect a little bit more of a composed Carolina
Speaker 2: team this time around. Certainly, I think that they are
Speaker 2: at an absolute use in a teaser to get them to
Speaker 2: eight or to get them to eight and a half,
Speaker 2: because I think, you know, when you win in New
Speaker 2: York City, and Tom you're a man of the East Coast,
Speaker 2: so you know when you win in New York City,
Speaker 2: they don't overreact that they don't overreact to bad news
Speaker 2: or good news. They're in New York straight, even gel
Speaker 2: in the New York Post and whatnot. So you know,
Speaker 2: all a sudden, Brian Dable, it's like, hey, we got
Speaker 2: something with this guy, and this just seems like the
Speaker 2: right for disappointment spot. Even though I like the Giants
Speaker 2: long term to go over their season wins, that's one
Speaker 2: thing I don't like to do early. I don't like
Speaker 2: to bet my season wins, or my division or my
Speaker 2: make or miss the playoffs. You've got to play this
Speaker 2: on a week to week basis. So I like Carolina
Speaker 2: here as a small underdog.
Speaker 1: I will always bet on disappointment when it comes to
Speaker 1: New York sports teams. That is always the biggest lock
Speaker 1: that you can have. Matt any thoughts on this game
Speaker 1: before we pivot to our final contest.
Speaker 3: Uh, Yeah, it's it's one that I am certainly looking
Speaker 3: at for for you know, like circum million or you know,
Speaker 3: pick contest like that. If I'm on the side it
Speaker 3: is Carolina, it is not the Giants. Uh, you know,
Speaker 3: as as a home home favorite, that that feels disastrous
Speaker 3: for Daniel Jones.
Speaker 1: I am completely right there with you guys. All right,
Speaker 1: one more contest here for us here, and it's another
Speaker 1: one of those ten point favorites. We got a couple
Speaker 1: whoppers this week. This is one of them. The Bears
Speaker 1: head to lambeau Field fresh off their win in the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. They head now to Lambo to take on
Speaker 1: the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. The over under on receivers
Speaker 1: Mert fought with a wind up dead in Green Bay
Speaker 1: this season is absolutely one and a half. I'm not
Speaker 1: even gonna lay the under. But they do get Alan
Speaker 1: Lazard back for this game, they're gonna be ten point favorites.
Speaker 1: Here from bet MGM, Matt, if you were to sign
Speaker 1: up for a bet MGM account and use your promo
Speaker 1: code betting pros to get a thousand dollars risk free bet,
Speaker 1: would you be using it on the Packers minus ten
Speaker 1: in this spot?
Speaker 3: I mean that would be a little fishy of me,
Speaker 3: but yeah, sure, I think I would. I think this
Speaker 3: should be above ten, so you know it's ten. I
Speaker 3: think I'm going to take it with the push value there.
Speaker 3: There are injuries, you know, obviously tackle situation that we
Speaker 3: saw last week that was horrible. David Botieri, Elton Jenkins,
Speaker 3: both of them out last week, Alan Lazard out last week, Lazard,
Speaker 3: you know, Jenkins, Botieri. All of them practice on a
Speaker 3: limited basis on Wednesday, so that is positive. I think
Speaker 3: there's a chance that at least two of those three
Speaker 3: guys returns, which that would make a pretty massive difference.
Speaker 3: Justin Field's not like like not like a two game
Speaker 3: sample is all that much, but he's only two against
Speaker 3: the spread against the Packers, three and seven against the
Speaker 3: spread as an underdog. And then Aaron Rodgers, He's got
Speaker 3: the sample size that actually has some significance, sixty five
Speaker 3: thirty four and four at home against the spread. He
Speaker 3: crushes at lambeau Field, like that is one of the
Speaker 3: few stadiums that actually has a home field advantage. And
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers in Division forty eight and thirty against the
Speaker 3: spread at home in Division twenty six and twelve and
Speaker 3: going against the Bears, he owns the Bears. He's owned
Speaker 3: them his entire life, twenty and seven against the spread
Speaker 3: against the Bears in primetime thirty eight, twenty seven to
Speaker 3: two for Aaron Rodgers. This Bear's secondary, I think is
Speaker 3: going to get sliced up. I don't think there's a
Speaker 3: question as to whether Aaron Rodgers bounces back in this game.
Speaker 3: I think the question is how big will the bounce
Speaker 3: back be. And this Bears secondary Tom you said at
Speaker 3: the Soup Bowl like, I'm not putting any stock in
Speaker 3: what it was that they were able to do last week.
Speaker 3: That was a weather aided performance going against Trey Lance,
Speaker 3: And I wouldn't say it was his first start, but
Speaker 3: his first start as the starter for the team. I mean,
Speaker 3: this is a situation where Rogers absolutely dominates. The Bears
Speaker 3: have two rookies starting in their secondary slot, cornerback Kyler
Speaker 3: Gordon and strong safety Jakwan Brisker. You have Lizard going
Speaker 3: against it's Kyler Gordon. You have Robert Tunyan going against Brisker.
Speaker 3: Those guys might be the two most trusted pass catchers
Speaker 3: that Aaron Rodgers has. I think he is going to
Speaker 3: exploit those two rookies in particular over and over and over,
Speaker 3: and this feels like a fourteen point game, not a
Speaker 3: ten point game.
Speaker 1: I'm inclined to be right there with you, Wes. What
Speaker 1: do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the favorite of all the big double
Speaker 2: digit favorites this week that I would most want to
Speaker 2: back for all the reasons that Matt said in terms
Speaker 2: of the trends, and look, I'm not a big trend player.
Speaker 2: I like to say the trend should be your acquaintance
Speaker 2: and not necessarily your friend. But when you have this
Speaker 2: many I think on the Green Bay side, and also
Speaker 2: Matt Lafleur, by the way, nine to zero straight up
Speaker 2: and against the number off a loss teams that lose
Speaker 2: by double digits two in week one, forty and twenty
Speaker 2: five and two against the spread. So you know, this
Speaker 2: is I think right for the picking. I think all
Speaker 2: the circumstances, it was just kind of the perfect storm
Speaker 2: for an upset for Chicago in Week one. One of
Speaker 2: these guys that's going to buy in and say, Okay,
Speaker 2: this team's the real deal. They're going to be better
Speaker 2: than I thought. They are going to be who we
Speaker 2: thought they were, as Dennis Green once said, and I
Speaker 2: think what we think that they are as A is
Speaker 2: a very poor team, and just going into Green Bay
Speaker 2: would I would much rather lay it rather than play it.
Speaker 2: And these are usually the ones where I'm more often
Speaker 2: than not either passing or on the other side here.
Speaker 2: But this is an underdog I'm absolutely not interested in,
Speaker 2: so I would either lay it or pass here with
Speaker 2: the pack.
Speaker 1: Can we talk about for a second the fact that
Speaker 1: Lafleour's been the coach for what three four years now,
Speaker 1: and he's only had nine opportunities to come back from
Speaker 1: all right, Obviously there are a couple of playoff games
Speaker 1: to get tossed out there, but that's pretty incredible, guys.
Speaker 1: That is going to do it for us. In terms
Speaker 1: of our slate, breakdown real quick here before we get out.
Speaker 1: If you have to pick a Survivor team this week,
Speaker 1: where you go and Wes, We'll start with you.
Speaker 2: Oh boy, this is tough. I would have had Philadelphia
Speaker 2: last week, so had to survive a back door if
Speaker 2: I'm going Survivor, And look, I know you, I know
Speaker 2: you want to save teams, but I think Green Bay.
Speaker 1: Matt, how about you?
Speaker 3: Honestly, I haven't thought about Survivor at all because I
Speaker 3: did not survive last week. Uh you know, pain pain,
Speaker 3: maximal pain. Uh if I cared, but uh man, I don't.
Speaker 3: San Francisco is kind of intriguing.
Speaker 2: Because I won't get used either.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, like I don't think I'm going to
Speaker 3: want to be on San Francisco all that much for
Speaker 3: the rest of the season, and so this might be
Speaker 3: the spot to use them.
Speaker 1: I think San Francisco is a pretty good spot here.
Speaker 1: But the team I'm gonna go with one we didn't
Speaker 1: talk about on today's show, the Bengals. You're going up
Speaker 1: against the Cowboys with Cooper Rush. I feel like you
Speaker 1: have to play that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I can, I can see. You know,
Speaker 3: one one quick question here since we did Tommy, I
Speaker 3: just mentioned the Bengals and the Cowboys and we haven't
Speaker 3: talked about it. One of the few games we didn't
Speaker 3: talk about. And if it feels like you know, I'd
Speaker 3: like to get your thoughts on this west The move
Speaker 3: from Dak Prescott to Cooper Rush obviously a significant drop down.
Speaker 3: And you know, maybe that Cowboys offense was being overinflated
Speaker 3: in the market anyway, given some of the issues that
Speaker 3: they had, and now you know their offensive line is
Speaker 3: also pretty decimated this line. Let me see what it
Speaker 3: is right now. It might be as high as eight. Yeah,
Speaker 3: eight right now at bet MGM, that feels like it's
Speaker 3: too high. Yes, and so I have taken a position
Speaker 3: on the Cowboys at eight. I hate it, I absolutely
Speaker 3: hate it. But this feels like an overreaction.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. I think anything north of seven, you know,
Speaker 2: has to be an absolute take on Dallas, because one
Speaker 2: of the things you want to look at and look,
Speaker 2: I know that there's a drop off, so don't misunderstand
Speaker 2: what I'm saying here. But the Cowboys didn't look very
Speaker 2: good anyway against Stampa Bay. I you know, I just
Speaker 2: think it was it was kind of a chemistry thing.
Speaker 2: I worry a little bit about the offensive line now
Speaker 2: with McGovern out, and of course we do have a
Speaker 2: Tyron Smith, you know, having to be out for an
Speaker 2: indefinite amount of time. But yeah, I do think it
Speaker 2: would be Cowboys or nothing. For me. I think anything
Speaker 2: north of seven because Cincinnati, by the way, even though
Speaker 2: they made a lot of moves, not only in the
Speaker 2: draft and in free agency, it's going to take time
Speaker 2: for them. You know. Joe Burrow threw a couple bad
Speaker 2: balls but those four interceptions were not just necessarily on
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow, they were on the offensive line. So the
Speaker 2: Cowboys not only have problems there, but I think the
Speaker 2: Cincinnati Bengals also have problems there. And I think that
Speaker 2: those don't just get fixed in one week, you know.
Speaker 2: It usually takes several weeks I think for you know,
Speaker 2: even of being a little bit behind the curve on
Speaker 2: the offensive line to really get there. So that's absolutely
Speaker 2: what I could see. So Dallas, anything seven and a
Speaker 2: half or above for me would be I think at
Speaker 2: least worth a small play.
Speaker 1: I will say the number in a lot of spots
Speaker 1: is still seven. You can you can still find a
Speaker 1: lot of sevens. I don't know if it's going to
Speaker 1: stay around eight for very long, And you're right, when
Speaker 1: you swap out three or five offensive linemen, it takes
Speaker 1: time to build that cohesion. At eight, it's a pass
Speaker 1: for me. At seven, I'm still leaning Bengals here. I
Speaker 1: think that this team is better than what we saw
Speaker 1: against the Steelers because, mind you, five turnovers in that
Speaker 1: game and they still only lost on a last second
Speaker 1: field goal and should have won the game had they
Speaker 1: had their actual long snapper. The game's over in regulation.
Speaker 1: That's the thing for me where I'm like, ah, this
Speaker 1: team might actually still be good. They're not going to
Speaker 1: turn the ball five times. Turn the ball over five
Speaker 1: times every week?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that's fair, and that's why I'm scared.
Speaker 3: I've taken the Cowboys a plus eight, but I don't
Speaker 3: like it. Yeah.
Speaker 2: I assume though, long term for the Bengals is now
Speaker 2: that they are This is cliche, but they're the hunted
Speaker 2: instead of the hunter. So how do you deal with
Speaker 2: the fact that you weren't the plucky upstart last year
Speaker 2: and now you're the team that represented the AFC in
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl and people are gunning for you. People
Speaker 2: aren't just going to look past you on the schedule anymore. So,
Speaker 2: you know, I think early in the season, that's why
Speaker 2: I was a little bit lower on the Bengals, at
Speaker 2: least to start out early, because I think they've got
Speaker 2: to get used to the fact that now they've got
Speaker 2: to deal with the whole new set of expectations.
Speaker 1: I do agree with that. And you also have to
Speaker 1: play a first place schedule instead of a fourth place
Speaker 1: schedule now. But guys, that'll do it for us here today.
Speaker 1: Once again, Head on over to bet MGM, get yourself
Speaker 1: signed up for an account, use the promo code Betting Pros,
Speaker 1: and your first bet will be a one thousand dollars
Speaker 1: risk free bet on whatever you want it to be.
Speaker 1: But for now, that is going to do it for
Speaker 1: us here, Wes, thank you so much for joining us,
Speaker 1: Thank you g having me. Where could people find you
Speaker 1: in the great work you're doing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, at Wes Reynolds and the number one on the
Speaker 2: and also at VSA dot com. We ride up different
Speaker 2: games and then of course I am on Live bet
Speaker 2: Tonight every Monday due Friday from six to nine Pacific
Speaker 2: nine to twelve Eastern with my co host and me
Speaker 2: at Bevave. So we get into the live betting not
Speaker 2: only with football when we have it on during the weeknights,
Speaker 2: but we'll be having baseball playoffs soon and especially when
Speaker 2: basketball gets started, it's going to really get coming and
Speaker 2: have a lot of stuff and it'll move very fast
Speaker 2: for a three hour show.
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