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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host Thomas Maiola and joining me is always

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Speaker 1: none other than the Oracle himself, Matthew Friedman. And today

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Speaker 1: we have a very special guest with us, VI Sin's

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Speaker 1: own Wes Reynolds is here to help us break down

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Speaker 1: the week two lines. Wes, how are you doing today?

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Speaker 1: It is a pleasure to have you here.

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Speaker 2: Good to be on with you guys week two. You

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Speaker 2: know it's always the overreaction reek week, right, but some

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Speaker 2: of the reactions need to be reactions based on what

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Speaker 2: we saw. But I think this is kind of a

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Speaker 2: tricky card this week. It's not like last week. And

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Speaker 2: I know, Tom, you and I were talking in the

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Speaker 2: lead up before we started recording here that last week

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Speaker 2: we kind of thought was going to be a little

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Speaker 2: bit of carnage, especially was in a lot of the

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Speaker 2: survivor pools, a lot of these favorites going down. But

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Speaker 2: I think really one of the reasons was because Week

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Speaker 2: one has almost become the new Week four and NFL preseason.

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Speaker 2: I think with so many of these starters sitting out,

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Speaker 2: especially these quarterbacks. Quarterbacks were three and eight did not

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Speaker 2: take a snap in the preseason, so it takes a

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Speaker 2: couple of weeks for these guys that develop chemistry with

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Speaker 2: the receivers and especially with the offensive line. I think

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Speaker 2: that's what I really noticed in Week one, a lot

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Speaker 2: of these offensive lines very much out of kilter.

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Speaker 1: I think you hit the nail on the head with that,

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Speaker 1: the fact that there's a lot of rush to shake

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Speaker 1: off for a lot of these teams, and we saw

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Speaker 1: just too many large favorites, too many touchdown home favorites

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Speaker 1: that just could not cover that kind of spread. Matt,

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Speaker 1: what did you think from Week one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean an entertaining week. It was boring, like

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Speaker 3: in the first go of it, like the early slate

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Speaker 3: for the first you know, like three quarters relatively boring,

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Speaker 3: low scoring games, and then like all of them came

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Speaker 3: together and we had some pretty epic finishes there. And

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Speaker 3: then the afternoon slate, not many close games there, but

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Speaker 3: it was fun to see the Chiefs just absolutely ball out.

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Speaker 3: So a good a good slate, and I think it

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Speaker 3: has resulted in some inflated lines for Week two, you know,

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Speaker 3: with the overreaction that we almost always see. So it's

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Speaker 3: an interesting slate for sure.

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Speaker 1: I love how you talk about how a lot of

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Speaker 1: the games were boring and then they all come together

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Speaker 1: and we got exciting finishes. But your favorite game, the

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Speaker 1: one you wanted to highlight, was the absolute blowout that

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Speaker 1: wasn't competitive, not interesting, decided in the first quarter.

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Speaker 3: Oh, it wasn't interesting, and like, oh, this is a

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Speaker 3: close game, but it's sort of compelling of like how

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Speaker 3: good is this Chiefs team? You know, because for me

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Speaker 3: that was one of the big questions entering the year

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Speaker 3: where I was aggressively rating them in my power rating system,

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Speaker 3: and I don't want to say like I was right,

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Speaker 3: but you know, like it's an indication that I wasn't

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Speaker 3: horribly wrong in terms of Week one, and you know,

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Speaker 3: continue to evaluate and see how they do after that.

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Speaker 3: But it was it was nice to see them be

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Speaker 3: inventive and be able to scheme in a new way

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Speaker 3: and move on from Tyreek Hill and still have an

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Speaker 3: awesome offense.

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Speaker 1: My preseason terrible time take was like the smartest guy

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Speaker 1: in the room take was the Chiefs are going to struggle.

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Speaker 1: And then I saw two preseason series and I was like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: we're good. None of that, They're just fine. I'm glad

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Speaker 1: I got off that.

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Speaker 2: To your guys's point, Like I was saying, with Kansas City,

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Speaker 2: they take a lot of different approach here, because look,

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Speaker 2: you always want to protect your stars and not get

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Speaker 2: them hurt and have them available for the regular season.

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Speaker 2: But if you see what Andy Reid does, and he

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Speaker 2: didn't do it every game, I don't think in the

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Speaker 2: third game Mahomes and company really played. But you know,

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Speaker 2: that first preseason game against the Bears, like if there

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Speaker 2: was a game to sit guys, it might have been

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Speaker 2: that one. Mahomes and the starters played essentially the first quarter.

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Speaker 2: And that's what Reed always does in the preseason. It's like, Okay,

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Speaker 2: the ones are going to play the first quarter, the

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Speaker 2: twos are going to play the second quarter, and then

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Speaker 2: everybody else is going to finish the game in the

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Speaker 2: second half. And I think that there's something to that.

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Speaker 2: Even if you're only getting limited reps on one or

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Speaker 2: maybe even two series in the first quarter, getting live

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Speaker 2: game reps, and it's still you know, people might call

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Speaker 2: it fake football, it's still real football because guys are

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Speaker 2: playing for jobs and this is still for real. Even

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Speaker 2: though in the end of the gay it doesn't really matter.

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Speaker 2: But still I think that that speaks to why you

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Speaker 2: saw the Chiefs so sharp. And that's one of the

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Speaker 2: games I didn't have acting on for Week one last Sunday,

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Speaker 2: But you know, when it plays out, you're like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: you know, you kind of see that. You know they're

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Speaker 2: sharp to start the season and some of these other

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Speaker 2: teams are still really trying to figure it out.

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Speaker 1: I think that you're completely right with that. It's without

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Speaker 1: the fourth week of the preseason to really play all

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Speaker 1: of those other guys and use the third week as

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Speaker 1: a dress rehearsal. It is that teams are going to

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Speaker 1: be sharper if they are taking advantage, like Andy Reid

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Speaker 1: is of Okay, I'm gonna drip feed my team, get

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Speaker 1: them just ready so that they're coming back from the

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Speaker 1: offseason and we get to Week one and they have

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Speaker 1: at least a ramp up into full game speed.

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Speaker 3: Can I push back just a little bit not to

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Speaker 3: say that you guys are wrong, and I think generally

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Speaker 3: you're right. I do think that the McVeigh anecdote is

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Speaker 3: interesting with him always resting his team during the preseason

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Speaker 3: and then up until this season being five to zero

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Speaker 3: against the spread in Week one, where his team's historically,

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Speaker 3: and so maybe this is just a McVay specific thing

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Speaker 3: where whatever it is, something that they're doing in training camp.

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Speaker 3: His teams normally are sharp in the first couple of

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Speaker 3: weeks of the season, even though they're not getting that action.

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Speaker 3: But I do think that we haven't seen enough of

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Speaker 3: a sample to be able to say that other coaches

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Speaker 3: have the ability to replicate what McVeigh has done. He

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Speaker 3: might be the outlier.

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Speaker 1: The other flip side here to this argument is you

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Speaker 1: look at the Packers. They get shellacked twice in a

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Speaker 1: row in Week one now going back to last season,

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Speaker 1: but what else did the Packers do last year? They

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Speaker 1: won the NFC, they were the one seed. It's it

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Speaker 1: is that question of does the preseason rest make you

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Speaker 1: sharper later in the season?

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Speaker 3: Is it?

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Speaker 1: By that point it doesn't really matter, and that you've

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Speaker 1: gone over the course of a whole season and on aggregate,

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Speaker 1: the rest in the beginning there doesn't affect you. By then,

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Speaker 1: who's to say? I'm not sure. I'm not claiming that

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Speaker 1: I know the answer, and I'm saying that teams should

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Speaker 1: or shouldn't start their starters in the preseason and.

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Speaker 2: In general, what we're seeing in Week one too. I think,

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Speaker 2: why we see the underdogs do so well everybody. I

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Speaker 2: know this is gonna be coach speak and a cliche.

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Speaker 2: We're all zero and zero, but in reality they are

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Speaker 2: in Week one. So you get all these teams, and

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Speaker 2: you know, I had a couple ugly underdogs. Unfortunately Tom's

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Speaker 2: Jets didn't get there. For me, that was the outlier,

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Speaker 2: but most of these bad underdogs actually did get there

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Speaker 2: because you had the Bears and the Seahawks. You know,

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Speaker 2: those are two examples, and those are two teams that

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Speaker 2: I don't think are gonna be very good. So I

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Speaker 2: don't think you want to say, okay, really upgrade these

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Speaker 2: guys because they got to win in Week one. I

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Speaker 2: still think they're bad teams. But when you get here

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Speaker 2: heard all summer that you know you're getting crapped on,

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Speaker 2: and you got schmucks like me that are betting Bears

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Speaker 2: for the worst record at twelve to one at the

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Speaker 2: end of the season, and they come out and play

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Speaker 2: very well. It's kind of a perfect storm for some

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Speaker 2: of these road favorites to go out and lay an

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Speaker 2: egg a little bit in Week one. Denver, of course,

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Speaker 2: did it on Monday night, not the best performance for

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Speaker 2: Nathaniel Hackett. I'm not willing to fire him and call

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Speaker 2: him the worst coach ever after week one. But it

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Speaker 2: wasn't just the end. There was some questionable you know,

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Speaker 2: designs there on the goal line. So it was a

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Speaker 2: bad performance. I'm willing at least to dismiss it as

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Speaker 2: that from week one. So that's why you don't necessarily

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Speaker 2: want to overreact. But going back to what you said

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Speaker 2: about the Chiefs, Look, they were very sharp, and I

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Speaker 2: was wondering, Okay, have we downgraded the Chiefs too much,

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Speaker 2: or that we upgraded the rest of the Vision just

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Speaker 2: to say that they got better, because all the rest

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Speaker 2: of the Vision teams obviously made very notable acquisitions.

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Speaker 1: You completely hit the nail on the head with the

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Speaker 1: wildness of week one and Nathaniel Hackett's schemes being a

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Speaker 1: little suspected. I'm willing to say that you should probably

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Speaker 1: be fired if you run out of the shotgun on

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Speaker 1: the goal line. I don't think you should have a

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Speaker 1: job in the NFL. That's just my opinion here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I look, I'm old school in that way. It's like, Okay,

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Speaker 2: there are some times, yeah, you can run pistol or

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Speaker 2: something like that. But a lot of times, you know,

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Speaker 2: hat on hat, and I mean, I know that sounds like,

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Speaker 2: you know, I'm back in the stone Age here saying that.

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Speaker 2: But it's like, line up, get me a yard, get

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Speaker 2: me in the end zone. And sometimes it is that simple,

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Speaker 2: and we over complicate things in this game.

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Speaker 1: I just loved the Twitter takes of oh why is

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Speaker 1: Belvin Gordon running that ball at the one? It should

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Speaker 1: be Javonte Williams. He doesn't fumble that. He doesn't fumble that.

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Speaker 1: Oh man, that was pretty sweet. Some instant karma watching

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Speaker 1: that happen. But right now, guys, let's dive into some

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Speaker 1: Week two. We've spent enough time talking about what was.

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Speaker 1: We need to talk about what will be. And let's

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Speaker 1: start off with two teams that frankly I am struggling

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Speaker 1: to get a read on here. Through one week. We

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Speaker 1: have the New England Patriots at the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers,

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Speaker 1: of course, we're able to win that overtime Cincinnati game

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Speaker 1: that nobody really seemed to want to win. The Patriots

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Speaker 1: got shellacked by the Dolphins yet again. Bet MGM has

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Speaker 1: this line at Patriots minus two on the road and Matt,

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Speaker 1: what are you thinking here as far as the side

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Speaker 1: in this game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like the Steelers in this spot, and you

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Speaker 3: know there are matchups in it that I like, but

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Speaker 3: a lot of it is just Tomlin as a dog

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Speaker 3: and Tomlin at home right as an underdog, He's forty

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Speaker 3: six twenty three and two against the spread for his career,

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Speaker 3: Like that is a phenomenal record at home, sixty three

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Speaker 3: fifty five and three, and you put it together, Tomlin

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Speaker 3: as a home underdog is fourteen three and two against

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Speaker 3: the spread. I think the I know TJ. Watt is out,

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Speaker 3: that definitely hurts this defense. And I think Watt is

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Speaker 3: worth maybe a point a point and a half to

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Speaker 3: the spread. He's one of the few non quarterbacks who

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Speaker 3: actually makes an impact against the line. But I still

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Speaker 3: think that the Steelers have a little, I want to say,

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Speaker 3: an advantage, but I don't think they are. They are

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Speaker 3: as disadvantaged as people expect them to be without TJ. Watt.

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Speaker 3: So last year, the Patriots had one of the best

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Speaker 3: rushing offenses in the league. The Steelers had a mediocre

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Speaker 3: at best run defense in Week one, though it looked

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Speaker 3: pretty different against the rebuilt Bengals offensive line. The Steelers

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Speaker 3: defensive front seven. They were pretty strong. They held running

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Speaker 3: back Joe Mix into just three yards per carry on

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Speaker 3: twenty seven attempts. And like the Bengals the Patriots, they

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Speaker 3: altered their offensive line this offseason. They traded guard Shack Mason,

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Speaker 3: they lost left guards Ted Carris, they moved offensive tackle

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Speaker 3: Trent Trent Brown and and Isaiah Win switched them switch

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Speaker 3: sides to left tackle, the right tackling right tackle, the

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Speaker 3: left tackle Michael and Wenu. He went from right tackle

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty and left guard and right tackle last

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Speaker 3: year to right guard. And then they drafted Cole Strange.

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Speaker 3: So they have a significantly rebuilt offensive line. And on

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Speaker 3: top of that, they shifted away this offseason from a

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Speaker 3: gap heavy power rushing scheme to a Shanahan style zone

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Speaker 3: blocking scheme. And it's not to say that they are

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Speaker 3: all zone blocking now, but they have moved in that

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Speaker 3: direction and the results were not positive. In Week one,

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Speaker 3: They're running backs combined for just seventy one yards on

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Speaker 3: nineteen carries. And TJ. Watt, you know, obviously great player,

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Speaker 3: defensive Player of the Year. Where he makes the biggest

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Speaker 3: difference is as a pass rusher, not as a run defender.

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Speaker 3: The Steelers still have Cameron Hayward, Larry Ogunjobi, Chris Wormley,

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Speaker 3: Tyson Alua Luo. They have those guys in the interior

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Speaker 3: to be able to challenge the Patriots in the trenches.

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Speaker 3: And I think with the Patriots, especially with Mac Jones

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Speaker 3: having the back issue that he's dealing with, I think

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Speaker 3: they're going to lean all the more into the running game.

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Speaker 3: Not as if they need much of an excuse to

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Speaker 3: lean on the running game anyway, that's what their offense

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Speaker 3: is predicated on. I just don't know how much success

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Speaker 3: they are going to have running the ball against the

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Speaker 3: Steelers front, and even without TJ. Watt, I think they're

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Speaker 3: still going to be able to assert themselves in that way.

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Speaker 3: So I think this is a closer game than not

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Speaker 3: a closer game than people would expect. But I think

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Speaker 3: the Steelers are able to keep it close and I

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Speaker 3: think they should actually be favored in this spot.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Ah no, I was gonna say for me, even

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Speaker 2: though it's dropped a little bit, I still like the

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Speaker 2: total at under forty and a half. I still think

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Speaker 2: that there is a little bit of value there. Even

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Speaker 2: though forty one is kind of an old key number

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Speaker 2: with totals, but maybe not in the new NFL with

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Speaker 2: more possessions and obviously more kicking gain problems with the

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Speaker 2: extra points being missed. But I still think that the

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Speaker 2: under can be sponsored here because if you look at

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Speaker 2: the Patriots now second straight road game, only scored seven

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Speaker 2: in Miami. This isn't a recent pattern though for the Patriots.

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Speaker 2: If you go back all the way to two twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 2: I think Patriots on the road correlating that with the unders,

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Speaker 2: it hits like two thirds of the time. This is

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Speaker 2: going back to Tom Brady being the quarterback in Foxborough, so

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Speaker 2: this isn't just exclusively a mac Jones thing. I thought

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Speaker 2: the Patriots defense was a little bit better in the

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Speaker 2: second half. They had only allowed like seventy yards until

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Speaker 2: they fumbled at the end trying to get it to

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Speaker 2: a one score game, and then Miami was just able

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Speaker 2: to run out the clock with fifty more yards. But

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Speaker 2: I thought the defense was okay. Patriots still struggled to

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Speaker 2: run the ball. They really struggled to run the ball

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Speaker 2: in the preseason. I think the rise in the line

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Speaker 2: because it was down at one and a half. Now

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Speaker 2: you're seeing some two and even some two and a

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Speaker 2: half in the market. I think it's because they think

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Speaker 2: mac Jones is going to go ahead and play here,

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Speaker 2: so they're not have to go to Brian Hoyer, Whereas

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Speaker 2: I think if they went with Brian Hoyer, then the

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Speaker 2: Steelers absolutely would be favorites, and there may be a

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Speaker 2: discussion of whether they should be or not. So Steelers

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Speaker 2: on a teaser leg I think would make sense. I

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Speaker 2: don't know if I'm willing to take the two, but

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Speaker 2: I like these teasers. And that's kind of a general

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Speaker 2: point I want to make about these Wollteezers, which historically

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Speaker 2: are very good obviously teasing through the three and the seven,

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Speaker 2: even though those numbers may not be as key as

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Speaker 2: they were even five or ten years ago. But I

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Speaker 2: think those numbers are more key when you have lower totals,

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Speaker 2: because I think we could use last Thursday Night's game

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Speaker 2: as an example. Those six points don't have as much

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Speaker 2: value when you have one of the top offenses like

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Speaker 2: a Buffalo, like a Kansas City, But when you have

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Speaker 2: these teams that are more middle of the pack or

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Speaker 2: even down below the Mendoza line on offense and you

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Speaker 2: have these low totals, then those Wolteezers are going to matter.

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Speaker 2: And I think you saw that materialize in that Cleveland

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Speaker 2: Carolina game last week.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, absolutely.

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Speaker 1: Well, Wes, you talk about potential teaser spots if you're

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Speaker 1: looking for something to pair the Steelers with the Saints

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Speaker 1: at two and a half or someone, have your eye

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Speaker 1: on here against the Bucks.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I bet three already, and you know, I think

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Speaker 2: you might see three again depending on what the injury

308
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Speaker 2: report is for Campa Bay. But I just look at

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Speaker 2: the fact that now they're left tackle is questionable. They

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Speaker 2: already lost Ryan Jens and they already lost Aaron Stinny.

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Speaker 2: We know that they were replacing guys on the O

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Speaker 2: line anyway. Shaq Mason is new, even though TV twelve

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Speaker 2: has played with him for years up in New England.

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Speaker 2: But this offensive line, and I think you saw the

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Speaker 2: game plan. I don't even think it was just game

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Speaker 2: specific against Dallas. I think Tampa Bay is going to

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Speaker 2: try to run the ball a little bit more this year.

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Speaker 2: And I think that's the direction of Tom Brady's saying, Okay,

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Speaker 2: let's mix it up because all these great quarterbacks, everybody

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Speaker 2: thinks that Okay, they want to pile up these stats

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Speaker 2: and whatnot. All the elite quarterbacks, Manny Brady, you know, Mahomes,

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Speaker 2: all these rogers are like, hey, let's run the ball

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Speaker 2: a little bit more because they don't want to get hit,

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Speaker 2: especially if they're not confident about the offensive line. So

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Speaker 2: I still think even when Godwin gets back, I think

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Speaker 2: he's going to be out for this one. But even

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Speaker 2: when he gets back, I don't expect you're going to

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Speaker 2: see Tom Brady throwing the ball thirty five forty times.

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Speaker 2: He led the league in pass attempts last year at

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Speaker 2: forty four years old. I don't think Leftwich and Todd

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Speaker 2: Bowles and more specifically Tom Brady want that to happen again.

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Speaker 2: So you're going to see them run the ball. And

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Speaker 2: I think the Saints pass rush can be dangerous, even

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Speaker 2: though they had zero sacks last week. But you get Davenport,

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Speaker 2: you get Jordan, They've been able to get pressure on

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Speaker 2: Tom Brady and he they've really kind of been as

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00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:32,960
Speaker 2: scryptonite except for that playoff game. In the regular season,

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00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:34,840
Speaker 2: the Saints have really owned these guys. And I know

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Speaker 2: kind of a you know, not complete performance from New

340
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Speaker 2: Orleans in Week one in Atlanta, but they did come

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Speaker 2: back from down sixteen, so sometimes there's something to be

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Speaker 2: said for momentum. So I think the Saints could absolutely

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Speaker 2: be a teaser piece with the Steelers one we'll get

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Speaker 2: to later too. With the Carolina Panthers.

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Speaker 1: I'm completely with you here. I was actually listening to

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Speaker 1: our friends over with our sister at Fantasy Pros Joe Pi,

347
00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:01,920
Speaker 1: Sapia and Andrew Er. We're talking earlier on their show

348
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Speaker 1: about the Saints defense is kind of built to stop

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady. When they face a mobile quarterback like Marcus Mariota,

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Speaker 1: they don't quite know what to do and they struggle

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Speaker 1: a little bit there. But take those struggles against the

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Speaker 1: Falcons with a grain of salt. And also, I think

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Speaker 1: Jamis Winston started to look good. You break down that

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter, two hundred passing yards, two touchdowns. He figured

355
00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:24,399
Speaker 1: it out in the fourth and part of that is

356
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Speaker 1: getting comfortable with his new receivers. Michael Thomas didn't really

357
00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:29,440
Speaker 1: get a chance to play with him at all. Chris

358
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Speaker 1: Alave obviously knew he's got a new suite of weapons

359
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Speaker 1: to work with, and I think we're only going to

360
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Speaker 1: see him improve over time. Here matt Any thought on

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Speaker 1: the Saints.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, with Wes, I have them in the betting

363
00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:44,960
Speaker 3: pros app at Saints plus three, I bet it on

364
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Speaker 3: the look aheadline because I thought this line would move down.

365
00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:49,399
Speaker 3: I didn't think there it was going to move up.

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00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:51,560
Speaker 3: I thought, if anything, it would move down. And we

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00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:55,080
Speaker 3: have seen that the matchup between Marshaun Lattimore and Mike

368
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Speaker 3: Evans is must watch TV two times a year. Those

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Speaker 3: guys legitimate hate each other, and for some reason, even

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Speaker 3: though Latimore is not a big guy, he has been

371
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Speaker 3: able historically, with the exception of a couple of games,

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Speaker 3: he has been able to neutralize Mike Evans, which really

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Speaker 3: changes the structure of what the Buccaneers are able to

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Speaker 3: do on offense. And that really is the key for

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Speaker 3: the Saints here. So I do like them, like Wes

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Speaker 3: at this number of plus three.

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Speaker 1: Guys, real quick, I want to talk to you about Sleeper.

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00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:32,120
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394
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395
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Speaker 1: dot com for details. Now on our last episode we

404
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,840
Speaker 1: had Captain Jack on. He talked about a bridge too

405
00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:48,520
Speaker 1: far and how some line movements are just a little

406
00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:50,440
Speaker 1: bit too far and they come back the other way.

407
00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:53,360
Speaker 1: By the way, fantastic show. Check that out once you're

408
00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:55,800
Speaker 1: done here. But one of those games that he said

409
00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:59,160
Speaker 1: would go too far was the Rams versus the Falcons.

410
00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:02,000
Speaker 1: It moved ten and a half very briefly, but it's

411
00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:05,119
Speaker 1: back down to ten at bet MGM. The Rams, of

412
00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:09,880
Speaker 1: course favored in Sofi Stadium here. I personally like them

413
00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:13,720
Speaker 1: to come off the mat after that shellacking by Buffalo.

414
00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:15,719
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna come out strong, and I think

415
00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:18,879
Speaker 1: we're gonna see the Falcons regressing a little bit. But Matt,

416
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:21,879
Speaker 1: you particularly have a leen in this game, and it

417
00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:22,960
Speaker 1: is towards the Rams as well.

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Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, I like the Rams. You know, ten and

419
00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:29,080
Speaker 3: a half is I believe that is the number that

420
00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:32,240
Speaker 3: I'm seeing in the market. If there's a ten out there,

421
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:35,359
Speaker 3: I think it's an auto bet to be able to

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Speaker 3: have the opportunity to push at that key number.

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Speaker 1: I am looking at a ten right now on bet

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00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:41,480
Speaker 1: MGM as we speak.

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00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:46,200
Speaker 3: That's wonderful. Yes, I love the Rams here at ten.

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Speaker 3: I Honestly, I'm surprised it got to ten. The Rams

427
00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 3: are dealing with some injuries, you know, Logan Bus, Ryan Allen,

428
00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 3: Joseph Noteboom, Like they're missing some offensive lineman Van Jefferson.

429
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:04,880
Speaker 3: You know, their wide receiver is out there. Their long

430
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 3: snapper didn't practice on Wednesday. Uh uh, that feels like

431
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 3: that might be like one of those like very sneakily

432
00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 3: important injuries. So like, you know, let's monitor to see

433
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:16,200
Speaker 3: what's going on with.

434
00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:18,520
Speaker 1: Him, as the Bengals well learned last week.

435
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 3: Yes, so you know, monitor the injury situation for the Rams.

436
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:26,680
Speaker 3: But I don't know, man, I think this is an

437
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,760
Speaker 3: overreaction to two things, you know, like what we saw

438
00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 3: out of the Rams in week one and what we

439
00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,479
Speaker 3: saw out of the Falcons. But this line was thirteen

440
00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:37,320
Speaker 3: and a half in the off season look ahead market

441
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 3: last Thursday, in the you know, the week ahead look

442
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 3: ahead market, it was thirteen and when it opened it

443
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:49,679
Speaker 3: was I believe eleven and a half, and you know,

444
00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:52,680
Speaker 3: now it's down. I think this is this is too much.

445
00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:56,160
Speaker 3: Sean McVeigh eight and three against the spread in weeks

446
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 3: one and two. That's sort of like the golden time

447
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,840
Speaker 3: to bet On McVeigh. Like all other periods of the season,

448
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 3: he's basically five hundred against the spread to start the

449
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:09,119
Speaker 3: season is when McVeigh does his best, and he's eleven

450
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 3: and six against the spread off a loss. You know,

451
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,440
Speaker 3: I think the key for this game is Cooper Cup

452
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:21,639
Speaker 3: going against two slot cornerbacks who were horrifyingly overmatched. Right, Like,

453
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 3: we know who Cooper Cup is. If he's not the

454
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 3: best receiver in the league, he's one of the best.

455
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 3: The Falcons defense is horrible against the pass. Last year

456
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,359
Speaker 3: was number twenty nine in past DVOA. Last week it

457
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:38,359
Speaker 3: was number thirty. We have, you know, our internal power

458
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 3: rankings of the different units, and the Rams pass catchers

459
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 3: have a very significant edge over the Falcon secondary. They

460
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:50,119
Speaker 3: have strength on the perimeter. Aj Terrell and Casey Hayward

461
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,119
Speaker 3: are good cover corners. But Cup lines up in the

462
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:56,960
Speaker 3: slot and that's where d Alford lined up last week.

463
00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 3: An undrafted rookie good luck putting him there, and journeyman

464
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:04,959
Speaker 3: Mike Ford, who is allowed nine point nine yards per

465
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 3: target for his career. It doesn't matter which one of

466
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 3: those guys is out there, neither one of them is

467
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 3: going to be able to manage Cooper Cup. So I

468
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:15,720
Speaker 3: think that is just that's one of the keys to

469
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 3: this matchup. But I think Cup goes off again and

470
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:23,160
Speaker 3: I think the Rams punish the Falcons for the sins

471
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 3: of the Bills last week.

472
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 1: I think the other big factor here is that pass rush,

473
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:31,400
Speaker 1: like you talk about. For the Rams, Aaron Donald isn't

474
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,399
Speaker 1: going to have problems with a mobile quarterback. I think

475
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:35,160
Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to get to Mariota and Whigs.

476
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 1: The Saints just wearing't wes any thoughts on this one.

477
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, ultimately it's a pass but if I were to

478
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 2: play it, I would rather lay it with the Rams,

479
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 2: especially at ten with that over adjustment. I think on

480
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:49,360
Speaker 2: the look aheadline, Falcons just aren't a team I'm necessarily

481
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 2: interested in backing at this standpoint. In Tom, I think

482
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:54,840
Speaker 2: you hit it in terms of the fact that they're

483
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 2: kind of a tricky matchup for the Saints because they're,

484
00:23:57,320 --> 00:23:59,920
Speaker 2: you know, Mariota's quarterback. They can get out of the pocket,

485
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 2: but you know, Mariota's a guy that will turn it

486
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 2: over to you if you let him, and he did

487
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 2: it a couple times last week. I think he could

488
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 2: do it a couple times. Again. I want to see

489
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 2: that Rams. This is what I'm waiting to see. I

490
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 2: want to see if that Rams offensive line, if that

491
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 2: was like, okay, they've got legit issues even though they

492
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 2: return to everybody except No Boom is new and No

493
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 2: Boom I think was very capable and relief last year.

494
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:22,920
Speaker 2: So I was a little bit surprised to see those guys

495
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,280
Speaker 2: give up seven sacks, even though Buffalo has a pretty

496
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 2: good pass rush. So I want to see if that

497
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,680
Speaker 2: was an aberration or if that was a trend. Atlanta,

498
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 2: interestingly enough, did put up four sacks. But to Matt's point,

499
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 2: this secondary, if they don't get home on the pass rush,

500
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 2: this secondary is absolutely going to be hurting. And I

501
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:42,440
Speaker 2: don't think maybe you know, Matthew Stafford doesn't even have

502
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 2: to go with deep balls. He can go underneath the

503
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 2: cup or Scroronic or some of those guys hit Higbee

504
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 2: and just kind of work the middle of the field

505
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 2: and get yards after catch on these guys. So yeah,

506
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 2: I'd rather lay it rather than play it. But I

507
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 2: think I'm going to stay out as.

508
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 1: A Cooper Cup fantasy owner. I'm very excited for this game,

509
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 1: but a game that I am not excited for at

510
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 1: all is watching my Jets take on the Cleveland Browns.

511
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:08,399
Speaker 1: They are six point dogs in Cleveland, which will be

512
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 1: sporting their new ELF mascot on the fifty yard line.

513
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:16,720
Speaker 1: As a general rule of gambling, I refuse to take

514
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 1: a team. I will absolutely not lay a touchdown with

515
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 1: a team with an Elf on its field. I'm taking

516
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:26,920
Speaker 1: Jets plus six solely off of that. Wes, You're also interested,

517
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:28,880
Speaker 1: but I feel you're gonna have a different take on

518
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 1: why you like the Jets plus six in this one.

519
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, and now you can get six and a half

520
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 2: basically in the market, there's a couple of rogue sevens

521
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 2: where it's just a little heavier on the Jets side,

522
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:41,480
Speaker 2: of course, on a key number. But you know the

523
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:43,959
Speaker 2: Jets last week, I'm not gonna be misled by the

524
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:46,479
Speaker 2: stats because they were down the whole game, even though

525
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 2: it's ten three until Lamar hit that deep ball to

526
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,119
Speaker 2: du Verne and then it was all she wrote. But

527
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 2: you know you're gonna see. Okay, the Jets out yarded Cleveland,

528
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 2: but they ran twenty six more plays as well. But

529
00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 2: one thing about the Jets, I know Baltimore was down

530
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 2: Dobbins and they were down edwards. But the Jets strength,

531
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:07,439
Speaker 2: as you know tom is against the run defensively, so

532
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 2: I still think even if those guys were to play

533
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 2: that was they were going to have a pretty good

534
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,920
Speaker 2: performance against the run. Baltimore really didn't do a lot

535
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 2: except for a couple of big plays, but that was enough.

536
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 2: And obviously you don't want Joe Flacco throwing at fifty

537
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:23,400
Speaker 2: nine times a game. That is not a recipe for success.

538
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:26,159
Speaker 2: But it's really what I'm looking at with Cleveland, and

539
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 2: I thought Cleveland was the better team against against Carolina.

540
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 2: They got that running game going early and that's what

541
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 2: allowed him to keep the lead for most of the

542
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 2: game until the end when they had to have that

543
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 2: fifty eight yarder. But Carolina was much the better team

544
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 2: in the second half. I felt Cleveland was good in

545
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,199
Speaker 2: the first half, and then when I look, it's like,

546
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:45,440
Speaker 2: do I really want to lay a touchdown with Jacoby

547
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 2: brisaid here eighteen to thirty four for one forty seven

548
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,719
Speaker 2: and a touchdown. This is not the Jacoby Brissett that

549
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 2: was in Indianapolis. When Andrew Luck announced his retirement basically

550
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:58,080
Speaker 2: two weeks before the regular season was to start. You

551
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:00,880
Speaker 2: saw him in Miami. He's had some injuries. He looked

552
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 2: a little bit slower, a little bit less athletic, and

553
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 2: you know they're going to try to rely on that

554
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:07,960
Speaker 2: running game, and that's not really the way you beat

555
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 2: the Jets. I think the Jets can absolutely hold up

556
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:13,600
Speaker 2: up front, so Brissette is going to have to make plays.

557
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:16,360
Speaker 2: Didn't really make a ton of plays in the passing game.

558
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 2: There's a lot of short passing to the running backs

559
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 2: to green hunt out of the backfield, trying to hit

560
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:23,640
Speaker 2: the tight ends over the middle. You didn't really see

561
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 2: him take any deep shots necessarily. So this number just

562
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:29,639
Speaker 2: looks a little bit too big for me. And plus

563
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:33,159
Speaker 2: the emotion of Cleveland because everybody, you know, whenever you

564
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 2: talk about a revenge game for a player, it's always

565
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 2: one side of the coin and they don't look at

566
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:40,040
Speaker 2: the other side. They're like, oh, Baker Mayfield wants to

567
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:42,199
Speaker 2: beat his old team's ass. You know, It's like, you

568
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 2: don't think they want to kick Bakers, but too of

569
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:47,680
Speaker 2: their former quarterback and be like, yeah, man, the grass

570
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 2: end greener on the other side here, pal. So you

571
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:52,760
Speaker 2: know that's what I think got to kind of happen there.

572
00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 2: So Cleveland comes off a little bit of an emotional,

573
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 2: kind of a personal win in week one, and you

574
00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 2: get the Jets, who you know aren't very good. They're

575
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:03,919
Speaker 2: having Joe Flacco as well past his prime. But I

576
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 2: think this number. Once you see seven, and I think

577
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:08,679
Speaker 2: you'll see seven at maybe some of the more of

578
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 2: the Squares stores, I think they'll get gobbled up very quickly.

579
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 2: I like the Jets.

580
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 1: If I can get seven in this game, I'd be

581
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 1: through the roof. But your point about Jacoby Brissette having

582
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 1: to make plays, I like Lamar Jackson to make plays,

583
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 1: especially against the Jets. I think the Jets defense can

584
00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 1: handle Jacoby Brissett.

585
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:30,920
Speaker 2: Matte Brissette is what I've always said about him. He's

586
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:33,639
Speaker 2: a good enough guy not to lose a game for you,

587
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 2: but he's not good enough to go win it for you,

588
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:39,880
Speaker 2: whereas Lamar Jackson last week was good enough with two plays. Basically,

589
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 2: you go win the game for him.

590
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 1: He's a bus driver. You trust him to get the

591
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 1: kids to school, but you're not giving him the keys

592
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 1: to a Formula one car.

593
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 2: Absolutely.

594
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 1: What do you think, Matt, what do you think about

595
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 1: this game?

596
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 3: Yeah? I have the Jets as five point underdogs, and

597
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 3: so if it got to seven, I would I would

598
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 3: bet it. You know, given that I can get the

599
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 3: push on the key number underneath that, I probably still

600
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 3: like technically should bet it. But I just don't like

601
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 3: this Jets team enough to do that. I that's a

602
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 3: fair point.

603
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 1: I can't find a hole in that argument to me, though,

604
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 1: Like it goes back to that being a Jets fan.

605
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 1: There's three weeks every season where the Jets randomly just

606
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:27,440
Speaker 1: get up and go win a game they shouldn't win.

607
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 1: And I feel it in my gut that this is

608
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 1: that kind of game. I think that this is one

609
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 1: of those spots where we're going to be getting some

610
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 1: Survivor contestants knocked out again because they just fade the

611
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 1: Jets and think, oh, I'm not going to take Cleveland

612
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 1: later in the season, I'll take them now. I think

613
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 1: the Jets are fully capable of winning this game outright,

614
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 1: I mean, I.

615
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 3: Think that's fair. I looked at the Browns and I

616
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 3: don't think that they're all that great of a team.

617
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 3: Like They've They've got pieces, they certainly have players, but

618
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 3: their offense is really bogged down because of the quarterback situation.

619
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 3: That said, I think they'll probably be able to run

620
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 3: the ball, and I think that kind of I wouldn't

621
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 3: say that matters the most, but I think their offense

622
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:12,080
Speaker 3: will look competent because of their running game and they

623
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 3: don't have to rely too much on their quarterback. I

624
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 3: think they hide perset in this game.

625
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 1: If only they could have foreseen quarterback issues coming and

626
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 1: done something to avoid those. I don't know, but the

627
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 1: next game up, speaking of quarterbacks, here we've got Derek

628
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 1: Carr going up against Kyler Murray and the new Call

629
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 1: of Duty did just have its announcement trailers coming out today.

630
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 1: That's got to worry you a little bit if you're

631
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 1: taking the Cardinals here plus six versus the Raiders. Right now,

632
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 1: let me see the most updated line here are friends

633
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 1: at BETTMGM have this down to five and a half,

634
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 1: and are you still interested in betting this game in

635
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 1: this spot Matt with at five and a half?

636
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have a ticket at five and a half.

637
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 3: I mean, this one scares me because I have it

638
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 3: power rated at one and a half, and like, this

639
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 3: is out of all of the games I have this week,

640
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 3: this is the one where I am way off of

641
00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 3: the market. For most of them, I'm at market or

642
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 3: at the most like two points off, but this one,

643
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:20,959
Speaker 3: I'm four points off, and I think it's you know,

644
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 3: I think it's an overreaction to the game that we

645
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 3: saw last week. And you know, I think that there's

646
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 3: a chance that some of these guys who were out

647
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 3: last week end up coming back this week, specifically JJ Watt,

648
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 3: which you know, like that would be that would be significant.

649
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 3: But one of the big things for me is that

650
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 3: this this feels like a yo yo type of game,

651
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 3: like like Cliff Kingsbury, like he is a zig zag

652
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:52,000
Speaker 3: kind of coach, Like you clearly bet against him when

653
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 3: he's at home or when he's favored, you historically bet

654
00:31:57,160 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 3: on him when he's on the road or an underdog,

655
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:06,000
Speaker 3: and he's both in this situation, and so it's a

656
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 3: really good thing. Like seventeen six and two against the

657
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 3: spread on the road, eighteen eight and two against the

658
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 3: spread as an underdog, you put it together. As a

659
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 3: road dog, Kingsbury is an outrageous thirteen three and two

660
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:23,320
Speaker 3: against the spread. And the Raiders have some negative trends

661
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 3: of their own, specifically Derek Carr, who is thirteen twenty

662
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 3: three and one against the spread as a favorite, it

663
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:32,479
Speaker 3: gets worse as a favorite against the team that went

664
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:35,520
Speaker 3: to the playoffs last year. He has won six and

665
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 3: one against the spread. It's not good. I think the

666
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:43,800
Speaker 3: matchup for this game is Kyler Murray versus that Raiders

667
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:48,800
Speaker 3: coverage unit. Say whatever you want about Murray, the call

668
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 3: of duty jokes, which are fantastic.

669
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 1: By the way, this weekend, Yeah all I'm saying.

670
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 3: I know, I know. It does make me nervous. I

671
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 3: should have checked the release schedule. The perennial second half

672
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 3: fall off with Kyler Murray, like that's a real thing.

673
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 3: But he's a top ten quarterback, still a top ten quarterback,

674
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 3: especially early in the year before he's accumulated all the

675
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 3: hits that come with the NFL season. And yes, he's

676
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 3: without perimeter wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins Antoine Wesley. He might

677
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 3: also be without slot wide receiver Rondell Moore. But given

678
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:23,400
Speaker 3: how Greg Dortch I can't believe I'm saying Greg Dorsch's name,

679
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:26,920
Speaker 3: But given how Dorsch played last last week, the loss

680
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 3: of ron del Moore might not be as big as

681
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 3: I would have anticipated. But the Raiders also have issues.

682
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 3: In Week one, they allowed Justin Herbert to go off

683
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 3: seventy six point five percent completion rate ten adjusted yards

684
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 3: per attempt. They were number thirty in drop back EPA

685
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 3: per play. And it's not as if they were great

686
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 3: in pass defense. Last year they were number twenty six

687
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 3: and drop back EPA per play. And part of the

688
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:50,920
Speaker 3: challenge for the Raiders is that they've experienced heavy turnover

689
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:54,280
Speaker 3: this offseason at cornerback, so their back end unit doesn't

690
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 3: have great cohesion. Last year, their top perimeter corners were

691
00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 3: Casey Hayward, Trayvon Mollin, Brandon Fashion and Desmond Truefonts. All

692
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,840
Speaker 3: of those guys are gone. They've replaced them with Rokisin

693
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 3: and Anthony Everett. But Everett he's already out with an injury,

694
00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:14,360
Speaker 3: which means last year's number five perimeter cornerback for the

695
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 3: team is now starting. That is really bad. And they

696
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:22,880
Speaker 3: have slot cornerback Nate Hobbs, who is a twenty twenty

697
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 3: one fifth rounder. He's okay, he keeps everything in front

698
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 3: of him. The problem is he allows everything to be caught.

699
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 3: He has an eighty one point four percent completion rate

700
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:37,720
Speaker 3: allowed for his career like Greg Derch could have twelve

701
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 3: receptions in this game, and the safety duo of Jonathan

702
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 3: Abram and Trevon morg mediocre I think at best. And

703
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:48,920
Speaker 3: Morgan has a hip injury he didn't practice on Wednesday,

704
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 3: and off ball linebackered linebacker Denzel Perryman, he's their main

705
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:57,880
Speaker 3: off ball coverage backer. He also didn't practice on Wednesday

706
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:01,279
Speaker 3: with an ankle injury. So the and the players are

707
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 3: adjusting to a new scheme under defensive coordinator Patrick Graham.

708
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 3: So you put all that together and it just makes

709
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 3: me skeptical about this Raiders secondary. And you know, I

710
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 3: think this line is an overreaction. The offseason market had

711
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 3: this line at two and a half. The Thursday look

712
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 3: Ahead had this line still at two and a half.

713
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:24,280
Speaker 3: The market reopened at three on Sunday night, quickly moved

714
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:26,440
Speaker 3: to three and a half, and within twenty four hours

715
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 3: it was at five and a half. And you know

716
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 3: now bouncing around between five and six. Ah Man, I

717
00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 3: think it's just an overreaction to how bad the Cardinals

718
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:38,359
Speaker 3: looked against the Chiefs in Week one. I think these

719
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 3: teams are pretty comparable, so I will be taking the Cardinals,

720
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:45,400
Speaker 3: but I do know I am way off from the

721
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 3: market with my line here, and so if I'm wrong,

722
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:50,400
Speaker 3: and there's a decent chance i'm wrong. If I'm wrong,

723
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 3: I will be quickly adjusting my power ratings for the

724
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 3: Cardinals next week.

725
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:59,680
Speaker 1: I have a hard time envisioning the Raiders blowing any

726
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 1: team out, and by definition, if they're going to win

727
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 1: this game by around a touchdown, to me, that's as

728
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:07,400
Speaker 1: good as the Raiders can get when it comes to

729
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:10,239
Speaker 1: blowing anybody out. Like you said, with the secondary, their

730
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:12,960
Speaker 1: first round, their early round draft woes over the last

731
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:16,440
Speaker 1: several years have obliterated any ability for this secondary to

732
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 1: be good. Like you said, they're using fifth round guys

733
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:21,239
Speaker 1: to try and plug these holes. That's not going to

734
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 1: work for you moving forward. And also, JJ Watt Broke

735
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:30,239
Speaker 1: just a couple of minutes ago said he is expecting

736
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:33,720
Speaker 1: to play this weekend. He was back at practice today,

737
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 1: so we can break that news here on this very

738
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 1: much not live show. I think I'm with you here.

739
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:42,640
Speaker 1: I know you're lower on the Raiders than the market

740
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:46,799
Speaker 1: and maybe than myself even personally I can't. I will

741
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 1: be taking five and a half points if I can

742
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 1: get them. With the Cardinals, especially if I can get

743
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 1: six wes. What do you think.

744
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:54,520
Speaker 2: Cardinals are nothing for me? For all the four reasons

745
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:58,800
Speaker 2: of aforementioned reasons that Matt talked about. Just the Raiders

746
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 2: with that secondary not a team that you really want

747
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 2: to lay as a big favorite. I think the Raiders are,

748
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:06,440
Speaker 2: you know, by and large this season, they're gonna be

749
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:09,759
Speaker 2: live as underdogs because they just get They can throw

750
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 2: the ball, and they can gain chunk yardage plays in

751
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:14,400
Speaker 2: the passing game, so they're always going to be kind

752
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:16,879
Speaker 2: of live. Even though they didn't quite get there last

753
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 2: week against the Chargers, certainly had a lot of opportunities

754
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 2: to do so in the fourth quarter. But with Arizona,

755
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:26,760
Speaker 2: I think, look, everybody was down on them. The market

756
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 2: was down on them, and look I didn't like them,

757
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:30,600
Speaker 2: even though I didn't bet any of their season wins,

758
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:33,359
Speaker 2: either over or under. The market was down on them

759
00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:35,920
Speaker 2: because the whole Kyler thing, because of how long it took,

760
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 2: and because of the fact that they just left you

761
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 2: with a bad feeling at the end of the season.

762
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:43,839
Speaker 2: And sometimes that carries over. But usually with Arizona they're

763
00:37:43,960 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 2: quick starters and slow finishers historically, and then they get

764
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:50,120
Speaker 2: beat last week by a very sharp Kansas City team,

765
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 2: and you know, maybe it's just that they got beat

766
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 2: by a really good team even though it was a

767
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:57,719
Speaker 2: very comfortable win. This is a big overreaction from the

768
00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:00,799
Speaker 2: look aheadline. And you know, usually when you see look

769
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 2: aheadline to what it reopens on Sunday evening and early

770
00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:07,279
Speaker 2: Monday morning, usually you're getting a point point and a

771
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:10,799
Speaker 2: half adjustment. You're not getting over a field goal adjustment here.

772
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:13,480
Speaker 2: So yeah, this is Cardinals or nothing for me. This

773
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:15,680
Speaker 2: was a game I was looking to stay away from.

774
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:17,560
Speaker 2: But as I kind of look at it a little

775
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 2: bit more, I'm starting to like the road underdog.

776
00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:23,040
Speaker 1: If you want to win a sign Joe Mixon Cincinnati

777
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:26,360
Speaker 1: Bengals jersey courtesy of our friends at Christine Auction, you

778
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:29,800
Speaker 1: need to subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now,

779
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 1: comment below this video and that is it. You will

780
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 1: automatically be entered. We will be announcing a winner right

781
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:38,319
Speaker 1: here on the channel, so make sure to turn on

782
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 1: those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes

783
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:45,759
Speaker 1: are up and to claim your prize. From one team

784
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:48,800
Speaker 1: that left the Bay Area to another, the Santa Clara

785
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:54,040
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers they opened around ten points. This line

786
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:56,359
Speaker 1: is fluctuated from nine to nine and a half up

787
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:59,360
Speaker 1: to ten. BETMGM now has it at eight and a

788
00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:03,320
Speaker 1: half point points as home favorites against the Seahawks this week.

789
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 1: And you want to talk about overreactions, this, to me

790
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:10,879
Speaker 1: is a huge overreaction to the Seahawks win on Monday night.

791
00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:14,440
Speaker 1: First off, your two goal line fumbles away from the

792
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 1: story of this game being completely different. And then I also,

793
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 1: as much as I don't want to lay more than

794
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:23,680
Speaker 1: a touchdown with the forty nine ers, all I saw

795
00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:26,840
Speaker 1: Monday night from the Seahawks was ten. Their strategy was

796
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:29,839
Speaker 1: allowed the Broncos running backs to break off as many

797
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:32,719
Speaker 1: ten plus yard runs as possible so that they'd be

798
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:35,400
Speaker 1: tired on the goal line and fumble. That seems to

799
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:36,839
Speaker 1: be what they were working with. Be is they were

800
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:39,319
Speaker 1: getting gashed in the run game, which is what the

801
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:42,600
Speaker 1: forty nine ers are going to do against this team. Wes,

802
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:45,719
Speaker 1: what are you thinking here with the forty nine ers.

803
00:39:46,080 --> 00:39:47,960
Speaker 1: You like them at nine, so I'm sure you like

804
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:49,360
Speaker 1: them at eight and a half in this spot, and

805
00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:50,920
Speaker 1: I'm inclined to be right there with you.

806
00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:53,279
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, if you look at this, and I

807
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 2: was on the Bears last week just because I kind

808
00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:58,000
Speaker 2: of thought it was a perfect storm. Lance only making

809
00:39:58,040 --> 00:40:01,279
Speaker 2: a second road start. No, George, get George. Kittle's going

810
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:03,359
Speaker 2: to need to be Trey Lance's best friend at least

811
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:06,360
Speaker 2: early on in this season for his development. But I

812
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:08,920
Speaker 2: felt a little bit fortunate to get home with Chicago

813
00:40:09,000 --> 00:40:11,000
Speaker 2: for the full game in the second half, because keep

814
00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:13,799
Speaker 2: in mind, they were down seven tough, and then San

815
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:16,520
Speaker 2: Francisco goes and gets three right away on the first drive,

816
00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:18,480
Speaker 2: so it's ten enough and the Bears had done nothing.

817
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 2: Once the Bears decided they were going to play school

818
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:23,400
Speaker 2: yard ball with Justin Fields and get him out of

819
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 2: the pocket and get the Niners defense, which is pretty

820
00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 2: fast for Demiko Ryans moving in a different direction, then

821
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:32,680
Speaker 2: all of a sudden, you saw the Bears move the football.

822
00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:35,200
Speaker 2: But if you look at the stats and the box score,

823
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:37,600
Speaker 2: three thirty one to two h three yard advantage for

824
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers four point nine yards of play,

825
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:42,279
Speaker 2: which is not great, but three point six is even

826
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:45,040
Speaker 2: worse for the Chicago side, and yet somehow lost a

827
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:48,880
Speaker 2: six and a half seven point favorites. Bad weather conditions

828
00:40:48,920 --> 00:40:50,880
Speaker 2: as well there in Chicago, so I felt that that

829
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 2: was kind of an equalizer. Meanwhile, you look at Seattle,

830
00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:56,640
Speaker 2: and I was on the Seahawks on Monday night, felt

831
00:40:56,760 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 2: very fortunate to get that home. I think Seattle kind

832
00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 2: of early on really surprised Denver letting Gino get out

833
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:04,840
Speaker 2: of the pocket, get him on the move and throwing

834
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:06,920
Speaker 2: the ball. I don't think Denver was expecting that, and

835
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 2: I think that kind of set the tone for the

836
00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:11,200
Speaker 2: game for Seattle to hang around. But if you look

837
00:41:11,239 --> 00:41:14,120
Speaker 2: at the numbers, four hundred and thirty three yards for Denver,

838
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:17,800
Speaker 2: two point fifty three for Seattle, Seattle did very little

839
00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 2: in the second half, So this could be I think

840
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:23,600
Speaker 2: that kind of like Bylaw or that by low Spot

841
00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:26,319
Speaker 2: here for San Francisco. I know a lot of the

842
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:28,160
Speaker 2: market I don't think is gonna want to lay that

843
00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:30,320
Speaker 2: with Trey Lance. So like for some of these favorites,

844
00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 2: I don't expect this to be a very popular favorite

845
00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 2: in either the Circumvillion or the Super Contest, or any

846
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 2: any of Pick's contests throughout the week. I think they're

847
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 2: very lukewarm on Trey Lance because look, whenever the Twitter

848
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:46,000
Speaker 2: you know heard basically has an opinion on one side.

849
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 2: And look, I'm kind of mixed on Trey Lance, to

850
00:41:48,080 --> 00:41:50,600
Speaker 2: be honest with you, But everybody was like, that's why

851
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:52,759
Speaker 2: they kept Jimmy G. That's why they kept Jimmy G.

852
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 2: The guy has one bad game. So when you get

853
00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:59,720
Speaker 2: the Twitter cacophony, I guess on one side, I'm tending

854
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 2: to look the opposite way. I think the forty nine

855
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 2: ers could roll Seattle, even though this isn't as bad

856
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 2: of a travel spot on a short week as it

857
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:09,239
Speaker 2: would normally be for the Seahawks. But I still don't

858
00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:10,960
Speaker 2: think the Seahawks are good. I just think it was

859
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:15,080
Speaker 2: a good situation for him and Denver obviously shot themselves

860
00:42:15,120 --> 00:42:17,399
Speaker 2: in the foot on many occasions on Monday Night.

861
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 1: Trey Lance is absolutely bad. I will die on this hill.

862
00:42:21,239 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 1: But Matt, I know that you are about to come

863
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:26,880
Speaker 1: in here and talk about Kyle Shanahan's record as a favorite,

864
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:28,839
Speaker 1: So why don't you lay the stats on us?

865
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:32,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was busy looking that up. Yeah they're not pready, Yeah, no,

866
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 3: really bad. I mean he and Cliff Kingsbury, it's like

867
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:39,920
Speaker 3: these guys are twins, all right. You bet Shanahan on

868
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:43,239
Speaker 3: the road, bet him as an underdog. You fade him

869
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:46,880
Speaker 3: at home, fade him as a favorite. As a home favorite.

870
00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:51,960
Speaker 3: He is six fifteen and one against the spread. It is,

871
00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 3: and that's in the regular season. Absolutely atrocious. I mean

872
00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:01,399
Speaker 3: that said, I have this line at nine point two five.

873
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:04,439
Speaker 3: So I'm like, I'm right in the vicinity of where

874
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 3: it is in the market right now. I'm just staying away.

875
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:09,479
Speaker 3: I'm staying away.

876
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:12,719
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I can't. I don't want to bet

877
00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 1: on either side. I think that, like you said, Wes,

878
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:17,799
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers can low out the Seahawks. I

879
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:20,319
Speaker 1: also don't necessarily trust him to do it do it,

880
00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 1: so I'm gonna look elsewhere. Like this game of the

881
00:43:23,640 --> 00:43:27,280
Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers going up against the New York Giants. Here

882
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:31,839
Speaker 1: Carolina getting two and a half bet MGM now has

883
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:36,279
Speaker 1: them more or less at two. Wes, are you still

884
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:37,040
Speaker 1: betting them at two?

885
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:39,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would still bet at it two, and I

886
00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:41,759
Speaker 2: would certainly use it as a teaser. And you know,

887
00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:44,080
Speaker 2: I was on the Giants last week and they got

888
00:43:44,120 --> 00:43:46,680
Speaker 2: out played in the first half, but then they came back.

889
00:43:46,719 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 2: I thought they were the better team in the second half.

890
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:51,840
Speaker 2: Of course, Brian Dable making the decision to go for

891
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 2: the lead, not necessarily the win because there was over

892
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:56,600
Speaker 2: a minute left and Randy Bullock did get a field

893
00:43:56,600 --> 00:43:58,960
Speaker 2: goal attempt that he missed for Tennessee. But you know,

894
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:00,680
Speaker 2: you can kind of see it with the Giants and

895
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:02,200
Speaker 2: why I think a lot of us did like their

896
00:44:02,239 --> 00:44:04,560
Speaker 2: season wins over at six and a half and seven.

897
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:07,319
Speaker 2: With Sakuon Barkley, I do think they're a little bit

898
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:10,359
Speaker 2: of a different team. I just you know, he can

899
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:13,000
Speaker 2: run the ball and he can catch the ball. He's

900
00:44:13,120 --> 00:44:16,800
Speaker 2: very good in the passing game. Daniel Jones was actually

901
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 2: efficient when he really looked at his numbers. But here's

902
00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:21,760
Speaker 2: the bugaboo with him, and you saw it with Brian

903
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:24,080
Speaker 2: Dabole getting into it with him on the bench. He

904
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:26,600
Speaker 2: still turns the ball over way too much, and that's

905
00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:28,680
Speaker 2: what he's trying to do. Daniel Jones has proven he

906
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 2: can make plays and that he gets outside the pocket

907
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:35,600
Speaker 2: and he can find receivers. And the Giants historically, even

908
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:38,120
Speaker 2: when McAdoo was the coach, even when Joe Judge was

909
00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:41,560
Speaker 2: the coach, very good road underdogs with some really bad

910
00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 2: teams over the last few years in New York. So

911
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:47,360
Speaker 2: they were in that preferred role. They got home against Tennessee.

912
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:49,759
Speaker 2: Now you go home, they're a home favorite. Keep in

913
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:52,920
Speaker 2: mind against Carolina last year when Carolina, I think it

914
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 2: was Week seven, I think Carolina was on like a

915
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:58,040
Speaker 2: three game losing streak and Carolina was still laying a

916
00:44:58,080 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 2: field goal at New York. Now I know New York

917
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 2: had like no receivers hardly for that game, but still

918
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:06,400
Speaker 2: kind of a big difference at two and a half.

919
00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:10,360
Speaker 2: So yeah, I do like Carolina. I think Carolina was better,

920
00:45:10,440 --> 00:45:12,480
Speaker 2: Like I was saying in the second half, I think

921
00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:15,440
Speaker 2: they were clearly the better team than Cleveland, and figure

922
00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 2: it out a little bit. And also, that was Mayfield

923
00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:20,400
Speaker 2: going against his old teams, So the ducees were flowing

924
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:22,279
Speaker 2: and one of the things that you saw is he

925
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:24,319
Speaker 2: did fumble the ball four times. A couple of them

926
00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:27,120
Speaker 2: were on that center quarterback exchange with the center pad

927
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:29,239
Speaker 2: Flne And I just think that's a chemistry thing that

928
00:45:29,360 --> 00:45:31,840
Speaker 2: just takes time. And I think Mayfield was probably amped

929
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:34,160
Speaker 2: up and juiced up against his old team. So I

930
00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:36,960
Speaker 2: would expect a little bit more of a composed Carolina

931
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:39,480
Speaker 2: team this time around. Certainly, I think that they are

932
00:45:39,520 --> 00:45:42,319
Speaker 2: at an absolute use in a teaser to get them to

933
00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 2: eight or to get them to eight and a half,

934
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 2: because I think, you know, when you win in New

935
00:45:46,719 --> 00:45:48,920
Speaker 2: York City, and Tom you're a man of the East Coast,

936
00:45:49,000 --> 00:45:51,000
Speaker 2: so you know when you win in New York City,

937
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:54,399
Speaker 2: they don't overreact that they don't overreact to bad news

938
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:56,760
Speaker 2: or good news. They're in New York straight, even gel

939
00:45:57,160 --> 00:45:59,400
Speaker 2: in the New York Post and whatnot. So you know,

940
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:02,480
Speaker 2: all a sudden, Brian Dable, it's like, hey, we got

941
00:46:02,520 --> 00:46:05,160
Speaker 2: something with this guy, and this just seems like the

942
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:07,960
Speaker 2: right for disappointment spot. Even though I like the Giants

943
00:46:08,040 --> 00:46:10,719
Speaker 2: long term to go over their season wins, that's one

944
00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:12,279
Speaker 2: thing I don't like to do early. I don't like

945
00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:15,360
Speaker 2: to bet my season wins, or my division or my

946
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:17,239
Speaker 2: make or miss the playoffs. You've got to play this

947
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:19,920
Speaker 2: on a week to week basis. So I like Carolina

948
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 2: here as a small underdog.

949
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:24,279
Speaker 1: I will always bet on disappointment when it comes to

950
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:27,200
Speaker 1: New York sports teams. That is always the biggest lock

951
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:30,759
Speaker 1: that you can have. Matt any thoughts on this game

952
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:32,480
Speaker 1: before we pivot to our final contest.

953
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:36,720
Speaker 3: Uh, Yeah, it's it's one that I am certainly looking

954
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:41,239
Speaker 3: at for for you know, like circum million or you know,

955
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:45,600
Speaker 3: pick contest like that. If I'm on the side it

956
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:49,279
Speaker 3: is Carolina, it is not the Giants. Uh, you know,

957
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 3: as as a home home favorite, that that feels disastrous

958
00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:55,160
Speaker 3: for Daniel Jones.

959
00:46:56,000 --> 00:46:58,480
Speaker 1: I am completely right there with you guys. All right,

960
00:46:58,600 --> 00:47:02,120
Speaker 1: one more contest here for us here, and it's another

961
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:04,319
Speaker 1: one of those ten point favorites. We got a couple

962
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:07,160
Speaker 1: whoppers this week. This is one of them. The Bears

963
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 1: head to lambeau Field fresh off their win in the

964
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:13,799
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. They head now to Lambo to take on

965
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:18,400
Speaker 1: the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. The over under on receivers

966
00:47:18,440 --> 00:47:20,759
Speaker 1: Mert fought with a wind up dead in Green Bay

967
00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:24,080
Speaker 1: this season is absolutely one and a half. I'm not

968
00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:27,440
Speaker 1: even gonna lay the under. But they do get Alan

969
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:30,720
Speaker 1: Lazard back for this game, they're gonna be ten point favorites.

970
00:47:30,719 --> 00:47:34,680
Speaker 1: Here from bet MGM, Matt, if you were to sign

971
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 1: up for a bet MGM account and use your promo

972
00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 1: code betting pros to get a thousand dollars risk free bet,

973
00:47:39,840 --> 00:47:41,879
Speaker 1: would you be using it on the Packers minus ten

974
00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:42,480
Speaker 1: in this spot?

975
00:47:43,360 --> 00:47:45,480
Speaker 3: I mean that would be a little fishy of me,

976
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:49,640
Speaker 3: but yeah, sure, I think I would. I think this

977
00:47:49,719 --> 00:47:54,319
Speaker 3: should be above ten, so you know it's ten. I

978
00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:56,759
Speaker 3: think I'm going to take it with the push value there.

979
00:47:57,320 --> 00:48:01,680
Speaker 3: There are injuries, you know, obviously tackle situation that we

980
00:48:01,719 --> 00:48:05,960
Speaker 3: saw last week that was horrible. David Botieri, Elton Jenkins,

981
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:09,400
Speaker 3: both of them out last week, Alan Lazard out last week, Lazard,

982
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:12,920
Speaker 3: you know, Jenkins, Botieri. All of them practice on a

983
00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:16,640
Speaker 3: limited basis on Wednesday, so that is positive. I think

984
00:48:16,719 --> 00:48:18,879
Speaker 3: there's a chance that at least two of those three

985
00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:22,280
Speaker 3: guys returns, which that would make a pretty massive difference.

986
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:26,279
Speaker 3: Justin Field's not like like not like a two game

987
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:28,400
Speaker 3: sample is all that much, but he's only two against

988
00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 3: the spread against the Packers, three and seven against the

989
00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 3: spread as an underdog. And then Aaron Rodgers, He's got

990
00:48:34,040 --> 00:48:37,600
Speaker 3: the sample size that actually has some significance, sixty five

991
00:48:37,719 --> 00:48:42,279
Speaker 3: thirty four and four at home against the spread. He

992
00:48:42,320 --> 00:48:45,480
Speaker 3: crushes at lambeau Field, like that is one of the

993
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:50,360
Speaker 3: few stadiums that actually has a home field advantage. And

994
00:48:50,520 --> 00:48:54,400
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers in Division forty eight and thirty against the

995
00:48:54,440 --> 00:48:58,360
Speaker 3: spread at home in Division twenty six and twelve and

996
00:48:58,440 --> 00:49:02,080
Speaker 3: going against the Bears, he owns the Bears. He's owned

997
00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:05,800
Speaker 3: them his entire life, twenty and seven against the spread

998
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:09,640
Speaker 3: against the Bears in primetime thirty eight, twenty seven to

999
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:14,080
Speaker 3: two for Aaron Rodgers. This Bear's secondary, I think is

1000
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:20,239
Speaker 3: going to get sliced up. I don't think there's a

1001
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:23,520
Speaker 3: question as to whether Aaron Rodgers bounces back in this game.

1002
00:49:23,800 --> 00:49:26,720
Speaker 3: I think the question is how big will the bounce

1003
00:49:26,760 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 3: back be. And this Bears secondary Tom you said at

1004
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:33,120
Speaker 3: the Soup Bowl like, I'm not putting any stock in

1005
00:49:33,200 --> 00:49:35,319
Speaker 3: what it was that they were able to do last week.

1006
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:39,880
Speaker 3: That was a weather aided performance going against Trey Lance,

1007
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:41,759
Speaker 3: And I wouldn't say it was his first start, but

1008
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:47,640
Speaker 3: his first start as the starter for the team. I mean,

1009
00:49:47,680 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 3: this is a situation where Rogers absolutely dominates. The Bears

1010
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:54,960
Speaker 3: have two rookies starting in their secondary slot, cornerback Kyler

1011
00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:59,640
Speaker 3: Gordon and strong safety Jakwan Brisker. You have Lizard going

1012
00:49:59,719 --> 00:50:03,440
Speaker 3: against it's Kyler Gordon. You have Robert Tunyan going against Brisker.

1013
00:50:03,920 --> 00:50:07,080
Speaker 3: Those guys might be the two most trusted pass catchers

1014
00:50:07,440 --> 00:50:10,080
Speaker 3: that Aaron Rodgers has. I think he is going to

1015
00:50:10,239 --> 00:50:15,360
Speaker 3: exploit those two rookies in particular over and over and over,

1016
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:18,640
Speaker 3: and this feels like a fourteen point game, not a

1017
00:50:18,680 --> 00:50:19,480
Speaker 3: ten point game.

1018
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:22,719
Speaker 1: I'm inclined to be right there with you, Wes. What

1019
00:50:22,760 --> 00:50:23,160
Speaker 1: do you think?

1020
00:50:23,719 --> 00:50:26,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the favorite of all the big double

1021
00:50:26,120 --> 00:50:28,680
Speaker 2: digit favorites this week that I would most want to

1022
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:31,279
Speaker 2: back for all the reasons that Matt said in terms

1023
00:50:31,320 --> 00:50:33,440
Speaker 2: of the trends, and look, I'm not a big trend player.

1024
00:50:33,719 --> 00:50:35,840
Speaker 2: I like to say the trend should be your acquaintance

1025
00:50:35,840 --> 00:50:38,759
Speaker 2: and not necessarily your friend. But when you have this

1026
00:50:39,440 --> 00:50:41,799
Speaker 2: many I think on the Green Bay side, and also

1027
00:50:41,840 --> 00:50:43,839
Speaker 2: Matt Lafleur, by the way, nine to zero straight up

1028
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:47,000
Speaker 2: and against the number off a loss teams that lose

1029
00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:49,520
Speaker 2: by double digits two in week one, forty and twenty

1030
00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:52,719
Speaker 2: five and two against the spread. So you know, this

1031
00:50:52,800 --> 00:50:54,759
Speaker 2: is I think right for the picking. I think all

1032
00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:57,440
Speaker 2: the circumstances, it was just kind of the perfect storm

1033
00:50:57,480 --> 00:51:00,440
Speaker 2: for an upset for Chicago in Week one. One of

1034
00:51:00,440 --> 00:51:02,760
Speaker 2: these guys that's going to buy in and say, Okay,

1035
00:51:02,800 --> 00:51:04,719
Speaker 2: this team's the real deal. They're going to be better

1036
00:51:04,760 --> 00:51:06,759
Speaker 2: than I thought. They are going to be who we

1037
00:51:06,800 --> 00:51:09,839
Speaker 2: thought they were, as Dennis Green once said, and I

1038
00:51:09,880 --> 00:51:11,719
Speaker 2: think what we think that they are as A is

1039
00:51:11,760 --> 00:51:14,959
Speaker 2: a very poor team, and just going into Green Bay

1040
00:51:15,640 --> 00:51:18,040
Speaker 2: would I would much rather lay it rather than play it.

1041
00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 2: And these are usually the ones where I'm more often

1042
00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:23,040
Speaker 2: than not either passing or on the other side here.

1043
00:51:23,080 --> 00:51:26,120
Speaker 2: But this is an underdog I'm absolutely not interested in,

1044
00:51:26,239 --> 00:51:28,560
Speaker 2: so I would either lay it or pass here with

1045
00:51:28,640 --> 00:51:29,000
Speaker 2: the pack.

1046
00:51:29,600 --> 00:51:31,319
Speaker 1: Can we talk about for a second the fact that

1047
00:51:31,400 --> 00:51:34,600
Speaker 1: Lafleour's been the coach for what three four years now,

1048
00:51:35,160 --> 00:51:38,759
Speaker 1: and he's only had nine opportunities to come back from

1049
00:51:38,760 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 1: all right, Obviously there are a couple of playoff games

1050
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:47,440
Speaker 1: to get tossed out there, but that's pretty incredible, guys.

1051
00:51:47,560 --> 00:51:49,319
Speaker 1: That is going to do it for us. In terms

1052
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:52,919
Speaker 1: of our slate, breakdown real quick here before we get out.

1053
00:51:53,080 --> 00:51:55,120
Speaker 1: If you have to pick a Survivor team this week,

1054
00:51:55,200 --> 00:51:56,719
Speaker 1: where you go and Wes, We'll start with you.

1055
00:51:57,360 --> 00:52:00,000
Speaker 2: Oh boy, this is tough. I would have had Philadelphia

1056
00:52:00,080 --> 00:52:03,160
Speaker 2: last week, so had to survive a back door if

1057
00:52:03,200 --> 00:52:05,239
Speaker 2: I'm going Survivor, And look, I know you, I know

1058
00:52:05,280 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 2: you want to save teams, but I think Green Bay.

1059
00:52:09,719 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 1: Matt, how about you?

1060
00:52:11,160 --> 00:52:14,240
Speaker 3: Honestly, I haven't thought about Survivor at all because I

1061
00:52:14,320 --> 00:52:18,719
Speaker 3: did not survive last week. Uh you know, pain pain,

1062
00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:23,879
Speaker 3: maximal pain. Uh if I cared, but uh man, I don't.

1063
00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:28,680
Speaker 3: San Francisco is kind of intriguing.

1064
00:52:28,280 --> 00:52:29,959
Speaker 2: Because I won't get used either.

1065
00:52:30,200 --> 00:52:33,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, like I don't think I'm going to

1066
00:52:33,719 --> 00:52:36,680
Speaker 3: want to be on San Francisco all that much for

1067
00:52:36,719 --> 00:52:39,680
Speaker 3: the rest of the season, and so this might be

1068
00:52:39,760 --> 00:52:40,839
Speaker 3: the spot to use them.

1069
00:52:41,560 --> 00:52:44,040
Speaker 1: I think San Francisco is a pretty good spot here.

1070
00:52:44,040 --> 00:52:45,560
Speaker 1: But the team I'm gonna go with one we didn't

1071
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:48,560
Speaker 1: talk about on today's show, the Bengals. You're going up

1072
00:52:48,600 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 1: against the Cowboys with Cooper Rush. I feel like you

1073
00:52:51,200 --> 00:52:51,840
Speaker 1: have to play that.

1074
00:52:54,120 --> 00:52:55,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I can, I can see. You know,

1075
00:52:56,080 --> 00:53:00,040
Speaker 3: one one quick question here since we did Tommy, I

1076
00:53:00,200 --> 00:53:02,439
Speaker 3: just mentioned the Bengals and the Cowboys and we haven't

1077
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:03,799
Speaker 3: talked about it. One of the few games we didn't

1078
00:53:03,840 --> 00:53:07,040
Speaker 3: talk about. And if it feels like you know, I'd

1079
00:53:07,080 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 3: like to get your thoughts on this west The move

1080
00:53:09,880 --> 00:53:14,480
Speaker 3: from Dak Prescott to Cooper Rush obviously a significant drop down.

1081
00:53:14,600 --> 00:53:18,640
Speaker 3: And you know, maybe that Cowboys offense was being overinflated

1082
00:53:18,680 --> 00:53:21,319
Speaker 3: in the market anyway, given some of the issues that

1083
00:53:21,360 --> 00:53:24,600
Speaker 3: they had, and now you know their offensive line is

1084
00:53:24,640 --> 00:53:29,719
Speaker 3: also pretty decimated this line. Let me see what it

1085
00:53:29,920 --> 00:53:34,120
Speaker 3: is right now. It might be as high as eight. Yeah,

1086
00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:39,040
Speaker 3: eight right now at bet MGM, that feels like it's

1087
00:53:39,080 --> 00:53:43,640
Speaker 3: too high. Yes, and so I have taken a position

1088
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:48,320
Speaker 3: on the Cowboys at eight. I hate it, I absolutely

1089
00:53:48,360 --> 00:53:52,600
Speaker 3: hate it. But this feels like an overreaction.

1090
00:53:53,680 --> 00:53:57,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. I think anything north of seven, you know,

1091
00:53:57,280 --> 00:54:00,120
Speaker 2: has to be an absolute take on Dallas, because one

1092
00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:01,640
Speaker 2: of the things you want to look at and look,

1093
00:54:01,680 --> 00:54:04,000
Speaker 2: I know that there's a drop off, so don't misunderstand

1094
00:54:04,000 --> 00:54:07,279
Speaker 2: what I'm saying here. But the Cowboys didn't look very

1095
00:54:07,320 --> 00:54:10,600
Speaker 2: good anyway against Stampa Bay. I you know, I just

1096
00:54:10,640 --> 00:54:12,920
Speaker 2: think it was it was kind of a chemistry thing.

1097
00:54:12,920 --> 00:54:15,160
Speaker 2: I worry a little bit about the offensive line now

1098
00:54:15,200 --> 00:54:17,640
Speaker 2: with McGovern out, and of course we do have a

1099
00:54:17,760 --> 00:54:20,480
Speaker 2: Tyron Smith, you know, having to be out for an

1100
00:54:20,520 --> 00:54:23,719
Speaker 2: indefinite amount of time. But yeah, I do think it

1101
00:54:23,760 --> 00:54:26,400
Speaker 2: would be Cowboys or nothing. For me. I think anything

1102
00:54:26,440 --> 00:54:29,640
Speaker 2: north of seven because Cincinnati, by the way, even though

1103
00:54:29,640 --> 00:54:31,200
Speaker 2: they made a lot of moves, not only in the

1104
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:34,120
Speaker 2: draft and in free agency, it's going to take time

1105
00:54:34,200 --> 00:54:36,839
Speaker 2: for them. You know. Joe Burrow threw a couple bad

1106
00:54:36,880 --> 00:54:40,160
Speaker 2: balls but those four interceptions were not just necessarily on

1107
00:54:40,320 --> 00:54:43,640
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow, they were on the offensive line. So the

1108
00:54:43,680 --> 00:54:46,200
Speaker 2: Cowboys not only have problems there, but I think the

1109
00:54:46,200 --> 00:54:49,080
Speaker 2: Cincinnati Bengals also have problems there. And I think that

1110
00:54:49,480 --> 00:54:51,680
Speaker 2: those don't just get fixed in one week, you know.

1111
00:54:51,760 --> 00:54:54,880
Speaker 2: It usually takes several weeks I think for you know,

1112
00:54:55,080 --> 00:54:56,920
Speaker 2: even of being a little bit behind the curve on

1113
00:54:56,960 --> 00:54:59,960
Speaker 2: the offensive line to really get there. So that's absolutely

1114
00:55:00,120 --> 00:55:03,239
Speaker 2: what I could see. So Dallas, anything seven and a

1115
00:55:03,280 --> 00:55:05,319
Speaker 2: half or above for me would be I think at

1116
00:55:05,400 --> 00:55:06,520
Speaker 2: least worth a small play.

1117
00:55:08,160 --> 00:55:10,120
Speaker 1: I will say the number in a lot of spots

1118
00:55:10,200 --> 00:55:12,880
Speaker 1: is still seven. You can you can still find a

1119
00:55:12,880 --> 00:55:14,320
Speaker 1: lot of sevens. I don't know if it's going to

1120
00:55:14,360 --> 00:55:17,680
Speaker 1: stay around eight for very long, And you're right, when

1121
00:55:17,680 --> 00:55:20,279
Speaker 1: you swap out three or five offensive linemen, it takes

1122
00:55:20,280 --> 00:55:23,520
Speaker 1: time to build that cohesion. At eight, it's a pass

1123
00:55:23,600 --> 00:55:28,160
Speaker 1: for me. At seven, I'm still leaning Bengals here. I

1124
00:55:28,160 --> 00:55:29,920
Speaker 1: think that this team is better than what we saw

1125
00:55:29,960 --> 00:55:32,960
Speaker 1: against the Steelers because, mind you, five turnovers in that

1126
00:55:33,040 --> 00:55:36,680
Speaker 1: game and they still only lost on a last second

1127
00:55:36,719 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 1: field goal and should have won the game had they

1128
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:43,200
Speaker 1: had their actual long snapper. The game's over in regulation.

1129
00:55:43,960 --> 00:55:45,759
Speaker 1: That's the thing for me where I'm like, ah, this

1130
00:55:45,800 --> 00:55:47,320
Speaker 1: team might actually still be good. They're not going to

1131
00:55:47,400 --> 00:55:49,600
Speaker 1: turn the ball five times. Turn the ball over five

1132
00:55:49,640 --> 00:55:50,320
Speaker 1: times every week?

1133
00:55:51,239 --> 00:55:53,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that's fair, and that's why I'm scared.

1134
00:55:54,000 --> 00:55:55,879
Speaker 3: I've taken the Cowboys a plus eight, but I don't

1135
00:55:55,920 --> 00:55:56,839
Speaker 3: like it. Yeah.

1136
00:55:56,840 --> 00:55:59,239
Speaker 2: I assume though, long term for the Bengals is now

1137
00:55:59,280 --> 00:56:02,400
Speaker 2: that they are This is cliche, but they're the hunted

1138
00:56:02,480 --> 00:56:04,520
Speaker 2: instead of the hunter. So how do you deal with

1139
00:56:04,560 --> 00:56:07,440
Speaker 2: the fact that you weren't the plucky upstart last year

1140
00:56:07,440 --> 00:56:09,920
Speaker 2: and now you're the team that represented the AFC in

1141
00:56:09,960 --> 00:56:12,800
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl and people are gunning for you. People

1142
00:56:12,840 --> 00:56:15,520
Speaker 2: aren't just going to look past you on the schedule anymore. So,

1143
00:56:16,080 --> 00:56:18,239
Speaker 2: you know, I think early in the season, that's why

1144
00:56:18,280 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 2: I was a little bit lower on the Bengals, at

1145
00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:23,600
Speaker 2: least to start out early, because I think they've got

1146
00:56:23,600 --> 00:56:25,279
Speaker 2: to get used to the fact that now they've got

1147
00:56:25,320 --> 00:56:27,520
Speaker 2: to deal with the whole new set of expectations.

1148
00:56:28,560 --> 00:56:30,719
Speaker 1: I do agree with that. And you also have to

1149
00:56:30,760 --> 00:56:32,680
Speaker 1: play a first place schedule instead of a fourth place

1150
00:56:32,719 --> 00:56:36,880
Speaker 1: schedule now. But guys, that'll do it for us here today.

1151
00:56:37,000 --> 00:56:40,080
Speaker 1: Once again, Head on over to bet MGM, get yourself

1152
00:56:40,080 --> 00:56:42,680
Speaker 1: signed up for an account, use the promo code Betting Pros,

1153
00:56:43,080 --> 00:56:45,440
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1154
00:56:45,520 --> 00:56:48,480
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1155
00:56:49,040 --> 00:56:51,200
Speaker 1: But for now, that is going to do it for

1156
00:56:51,320 --> 00:56:53,600
Speaker 1: us here, Wes, thank you so much for joining us,

1157
00:56:53,640 --> 00:56:56,040
Speaker 1: Thank you g having me. Where could people find you

1158
00:56:56,080 --> 00:56:57,000
Speaker 1: in the great work you're doing.

1159
00:56:57,360 --> 00:56:59,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, at Wes Reynolds and the number one on the

1160
00:57:00,600 --> 00:57:04,200
Speaker 2: and also at VSA dot com. We ride up different

1161
00:57:04,239 --> 00:57:06,600
Speaker 2: games and then of course I am on Live bet

1162
00:57:06,600 --> 00:57:10,320
Speaker 2: Tonight every Monday due Friday from six to nine Pacific

1163
00:57:10,440 --> 00:57:12,360
Speaker 2: nine to twelve Eastern with my co host and me

1164
00:57:12,440 --> 00:57:15,080
Speaker 2: at Bevave. So we get into the live betting not

1165
00:57:15,120 --> 00:57:17,520
Speaker 2: only with football when we have it on during the weeknights,

1166
00:57:17,520 --> 00:57:20,280
Speaker 2: but we'll be having baseball playoffs soon and especially when

1167
00:57:20,320 --> 00:57:22,880
Speaker 2: basketball gets started, it's going to really get coming and

1168
00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:25,600
Speaker 2: have a lot of stuff and it'll move very fast

1169
00:57:25,640 --> 00:57:26,680
Speaker 2: for a three hour show.

1170
00:57:27,400 --> 00:57:29,520
Speaker 1: Thank you guys so much for listening today. Don't forget

1171
00:57:29,520 --> 00:57:32,360
Speaker 1: to throw us that five star rating and that subscription

1172
00:57:32,600 --> 00:57:35,720
Speaker 1: and of course has always clicked that notification button. Guys

1173
00:57:35,800 --> 00:57:38,680
Speaker 1: for Matt Friedman and West Reynolds on Thomas Viola and

1174
00:57:38,760 --> 00:57:50,680
Speaker 1: let's cash some tickets.