1 00:00:14,680 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you happy? Saturday? Welcome in 2 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:19,639 Speaker 1: to another episode of the Daly Juice Podcast with me 3 00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:22,079 Speaker 1: Matt Pereltz. You guys can follow me across all of 4 00:00:22,120 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: my socials at Sports Talk Matt and we are just 5 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 1: ice cold. We're not losing tremendous amounts of money. We're 6 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:34,239 Speaker 1: just losing. We started up three units and we have 7 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 1: since lost all of that and we have now gone 8 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:41,640 Speaker 1: down about two units for the week. Not what we wanted. 9 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 1: The Rays got destroyed by the Baltimore Orioles. They gave 10 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:49,560 Speaker 1: up like a hundred runs Texas and Seattle. That game 11 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: flew over the Dodgers and the Royals. Miracle. That was 12 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 1: a miracle to stay five to four, Like somehow we 13 00:00:57,040 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 1: got that bet right. And then the Astros win. The 14 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:04,680 Speaker 1: Dodgers win, but as always, it's the third leg of 15 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 1: the darn parlay. The Mets get blown out by the Pirates. 16 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 1: If we had gotten the Mets to win that game 17 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 1: like they were supposed to, we would have been good. 18 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 1: Would have been a profitable day. Instead, we lose and 19 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:21,000 Speaker 1: we're down. Unfortunately, so raise the worst bet of the day. 20 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: The parlay does not come in and it's a one 21 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:26,959 Speaker 1: to three day down one point eight units on the 22 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 1: day for Friday. So winning Monday, losing Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, 23 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 1: that's four straight days of losing. We got to turn 24 00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 1: things around, don't we. Well, even if we don't, this 25 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 1: is one of those days where I'm going to the event. 26 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 1: So since I'm going to the event, I mean, these 27 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 1: are the bets I'm making, and whether they win or lose, 28 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 1: I don't care because I'm covering the event. So I'm 29 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 1: gonna watch my bets play out in front of me. 30 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 1: And we're going with a full UFC card, just fighting 31 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 1: no baseball, not betting baseball today. I can't lose baseball 32 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 1: if I don't bet baseball. No baseball today, only UFC 33 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 1: three seventeen International Fight Week Tmobile Arena Pay Poor View. 34 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: I will be in the building for the entire main card. 35 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:18,520 Speaker 1: Most of the prelimbs cannot wait, so we should be 36 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:21,400 Speaker 1: a super fun night. I have bets on the last 37 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:25,520 Speaker 1: three bets of the main card and two title fights 38 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:27,959 Speaker 1: that will happen here tonight. I will break them each 39 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:30,800 Speaker 1: down for you here in just one second. But before 40 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 1: I give you the bets for today, a reminder about 41 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:36,920 Speaker 1: the code we have available from no vig. What is 42 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 1: no vig. It is a peer to peer sportsbook, meaning 43 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 1: you're competing against other users, not the house. It is 44 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:48,720 Speaker 1: legal in most states. They call themselves a sports trading 45 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 1: platform called no Vig. You guys can get better lines. 46 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:55,919 Speaker 1: Sometimes you can set your own lines, no commission or 47 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 1: hidden fees, and it uses a coin deposit system. It 48 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:02,480 Speaker 1: is real money. You can use the code daily Juice 49 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:05,760 Speaker 1: for fifty percent off your first coin purchase coin purchase 50 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 1: up to twenty five dollars. Check it out now at 51 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:13,119 Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com slash juice. That's bettingpros dot com slash 52 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 1: juice for no Vig. Okay, let's start with the third 53 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:22,880 Speaker 1: to last fight of the night, and that is Brandon 54 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:27,919 Speaker 1: Roval up against a gamer, and I mean an absolute 55 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:32,639 Speaker 1: gamer in Joshua Van. He just fought last month at 56 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 1: UFC three sixteen. He was not supposed to be the 57 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 1: opponent tonight, but due to an injury, a swapout happens 58 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:45,200 Speaker 1: and Joshua Van is now in this fight. Joshua Van 59 00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 1: being favored is wild to me. I mean it is 60 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 1: wild that he is favored Brandon Roval has lost three 61 00:03:55,000 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 1: fights in the UFC, essentially both fights to Alexander Pentosia, 62 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 1: the light the flyweight champion, and one to Brandon Moreno 63 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 1: in which he got hurt, got knocked out in the 64 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 1: first round. He got hurt. This guy's really good. Brandon 65 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:18,799 Speaker 1: Roval is really really good. He is five foot nine, 66 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 1: has a sixty eight inch reach. Joshua Van is five 67 00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 1: to five. He has a sixty five inch reach. So 68 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 1: even in the flyweight division, this is a big deal 69 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 1: to me. Now it's at the one hundred and twenty 70 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:36,480 Speaker 1: five pound weight, you know, for the for this fight, 71 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:40,400 Speaker 1: there very well could be a third fight between Brandon 72 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:45,159 Speaker 1: Roval and Alexandra Pentojia. More in Pentosia here in just 73 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:48,919 Speaker 1: one second. But I just can't believe I'm getting even 74 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 1: money here. And you can shop around and you might 75 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 1: be able to get better numbers than what even I 76 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 1: turned into bed. But I mean, I've seen I'm seen 77 00:04:57,160 --> 00:05:00,360 Speaker 1: anywhere from even money to plus one oh five at 78 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 1: some books, minus one oh five at other books. But 79 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:06,599 Speaker 1: for the most part, everywhere's got Joshua Van being the 80 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 1: favorite here. Joshua Van is a really good fighter, but 81 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 1: he's twenty three years of age, and he is stepping 82 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:17,159 Speaker 1: right in to the lions den here in a big 83 00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:22,039 Speaker 1: step up in competition. Like he beat Bruno Silva last month, 84 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:27,360 Speaker 1: but Bruno Silva going from him to Brandon Roval, whoa 85 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 1: hold on a second, big jump up, big big jump up. 86 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 1: I don't know when the odds first came out, the 87 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 1: numbers that first popped up here. It was a pick 88 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 1: em or even some of the you know, some of 89 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:45,360 Speaker 1: the books had a pretty big number on Joshua Van, 90 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:49,719 Speaker 1: but that's because of the fans. Like, the fans really 91 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:51,839 Speaker 1: like this twenty three year old and they think he's 92 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:55,720 Speaker 1: gonna be a champion one day. But I can't do it. 93 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 1: I can't back a guy. Yeah, activity is great and 94 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:02,160 Speaker 1: be in camp and he suffered no damage in his 95 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:05,440 Speaker 1: last fight. So he's revvd up and he's gonna be 96 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:11,039 Speaker 1: a formidable opponent. And he's won four consecutive fights, but 97 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:13,599 Speaker 1: he hasn't really fought the who's who of the division yet, 98 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:17,320 Speaker 1: and so this is a pretty big step up. Roval 99 00:06:17,440 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 1: has been win with the best in the division. I 100 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:23,280 Speaker 1: think Joshua Van's got a really good career ahead of him, 101 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 1: and I think he'll be a really good fighter. I 102 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 1: just don't think he wins this fight. This is a 103 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:31,279 Speaker 1: three round fight. It may go the distance. Twelve minutes 104 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 1: in one second average fight time for Roval, thirteen thirty 105 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:40,839 Speaker 1: seven for Joshua Van in terms of his average length time, 106 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 1: that's a long time. Strikes landed per minute eight point 107 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:48,719 Speaker 1: two that's wild for Joshua Van, that's a huge number. 108 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:53,359 Speaker 1: But strike's absorbed per minute for Brandon Royval three point 109 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 1: zero six. He's hard to hit. On the flip side, 110 00:06:56,600 --> 00:07:01,599 Speaker 1: Joshua Van five point twenty six. He takes more strikes 111 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:07,119 Speaker 1: than Roval. He actually lands in the UFC four point 112 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 1: four to six strikes landed per fifteen minutes, so like 113 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:14,239 Speaker 1: per minute rather four point four to six versus absorbed 114 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:17,600 Speaker 1: at five point two six is a wild discrepancy. Take 115 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:21,400 Speaker 1: down accuracy seventy five percent. Take down accuracy, take down 116 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 1: defense for Joshua Van's pretty good eighty one percent. But 117 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 1: I just in terms of submission, ground in pound, get 118 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 1: him on his back, wear him out. I'll take the 119 00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:37,560 Speaker 1: more experienced fighter. I'll take the guy whose resume is deeper. 120 00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: Brandon Royval is an even money fight. One unit. Royval 121 00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 1: on the money line even money to beat Joshua Van 122 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 1: at UFC three p seventeen Bet number two Pantojia against 123 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 1: kai Kiara France. Man want to fight this potentially could be. 124 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 1: Here's the thing with this which I find pretty interesting. 125 00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:01,559 Speaker 1: So if kai Kara is going to win this fight, 126 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 1: it most likely is going to be by knockout. Now, 127 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:07,239 Speaker 1: if you look at the way that kai Kia France 128 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 1: ends most of his fights. He beat Steve Ersig, who 129 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 1: had a lot of buzz around him before kai Kira 130 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 1: Franz knocked him out in the first round and he 131 00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 1: looked great. That snapped a two fight losing streak for Royval, 132 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 1: won by decision, one by knockout. He had a three 133 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:29,000 Speaker 1: fight winning streak, including knocking out Cody Garbrandt, which was 134 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:33,200 Speaker 1: really impressive by Kaikira Franz. He's had kind of like 135 00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 1: an up and down. He's fought Brandon Royval, he lost, 136 00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:39,839 Speaker 1: he got submitted, he thought Brendon Moreno, he lost by decision. 137 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:43,319 Speaker 1: Kai Kira Franz has a chance at the belt. Finally 138 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 1: he gets a chance at the belt. If he's gonna win, 139 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:49,600 Speaker 1: he has to knock out Pantojo straight up knock him out. 140 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:51,679 Speaker 1: I don't think he can win on the cards. It's 141 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:55,080 Speaker 1: a five round fight. He has to use his quickness, 142 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 1: his boxing, and he has to lay out Pantojia. The 143 00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 1: problem is for Antojia. Our problem is for any opponent 144 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:06,680 Speaker 1: facing Pantosia. I mean he lost by decision back in 145 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 1: twenty twenty was his last loss. He lost by decision 146 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:16,960 Speaker 1: against against Devison Figuredo way back in twenty nineteen. He 147 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:20,680 Speaker 1: lost to a guy named Dustin Ortez in twenty eighteen. 148 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:25,760 Speaker 1: Like Pantosia has been running through the division. He has 149 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 1: cleaned out the division, whether it be roy Val twice, 150 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 1: whether it be Erseg, whether it be Brandon Moreno, like 151 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 1: he's just beating everybody. Pantoja is a big favorite, too 152 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:40,400 Speaker 1: expensive to lay it if you ask me. But Pantojia 153 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:45,200 Speaker 1: by submission seems pretty likely. He won by submission in 154 00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 1: his last fight he has finished. That snapped a three 155 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:52,840 Speaker 1: fight streak where he won by decision. But I think 156 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 1: it's telling that inside the distance is only minus one 157 00:09:56,679 --> 00:09:59,200 Speaker 1: thirty five and the fight to go the distance is 158 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 1: plus one zero five. That at Circus Sports here in 159 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:04,400 Speaker 1: Las Vegas, which is the bet that I primarily bet 160 00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 1: my combat sports at here in Town. I respect their numbers, 161 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:11,320 Speaker 1: I respect their lines, and that tells me something that 162 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 1: this is not heavily juiced to going the distance. To me, 163 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:19,840 Speaker 1: it feels like this fight, yes, would go the distance. 164 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:23,440 Speaker 1: It's plus one oh five. It's plus money, so I 165 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 1: don't care who wins. If kay Kara Franz wins, it's 166 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:29,959 Speaker 1: by knockout. Most likely that prop bet at Circus Sports 167 00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:34,000 Speaker 1: Kaikarra France by knockout is plus five seventy five. On 168 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:37,560 Speaker 1: the flip side, Pintosia by knockout it's plus six fifty 169 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:40,679 Speaker 1: and Pantoza by submission is plus two to thirty. Most 170 00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 1: likely it's Pantosia by submission or Kaikara France by knockout. 171 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:47,720 Speaker 1: It could go to the carts, absolutely it could, and 172 00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 1: you can bet the over four and a half rounds 173 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 1: if you want. If you want to do that, it's 174 00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 1: miss one oh five. Gon bet over have it. Say okay, 175 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:56,199 Speaker 1: it's gonna go over four and a half rounds and 176 00:10:56,200 --> 00:10:57,440 Speaker 1: you can play around with the last two and at 177 00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:01,480 Speaker 1: two minutes and thirty seconds of the fifth round. Very possible, 178 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:04,079 Speaker 1: But I think this fight ends inside the distance. I 179 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:06,600 Speaker 1: don't think we go to the carts and again. You 180 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 1: can bet under four and a half rounds at minus 181 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:11,320 Speaker 1: one point fifteen if you want, but I'll pay the 182 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 1: twenty cents to get the full five rounds in case 183 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 1: something wonky happens late knockout, late submission, late in the 184 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 1: fifth round, somebody gets tired, somebody gets banged up, and 185 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 1: we get a late submission. I don't want to be caught, 186 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:26,319 Speaker 1: you know, holding a ticket for under four and a 187 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:29,360 Speaker 1: half rounds and the fight finishes inside the distance, and 188 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 1: yet it goes over, so I don't want to play 189 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:34,280 Speaker 1: around with that. I'll pay the twenty cents extra to 190 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 1: get the full five rounds. I think this thing ends 191 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 1: inside the distance. I think Pantosia wins by submission or 192 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 1: kai Kara Franz wins by knockout. Not really sure which 193 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 1: one is more likely to happen, but I do think 194 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 1: Pantojia winning is probably pretty likely here. But this has 195 00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:52,960 Speaker 1: been the shot that Kai Kira Franz has been waiting for, 196 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:55,560 Speaker 1: and let's see if his power can translate to go 197 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:58,559 Speaker 1: ahead and knockout Pantosia. I mean again, this guy has 198 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:02,679 Speaker 1: never been knocked out. In his UFC career, his only 199 00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:06,560 Speaker 1: losses have come by decision, So I mean he's been 200 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:10,680 Speaker 1: the best of the best. Maybe his time's up. Maybe 201 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:13,440 Speaker 1: this is Kai Karra Franz's moment. But if it's going 202 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 1: to be, it's not gonna be by decision, it's gonna 203 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 1: be by knockout. And Pantosia on the other side, because 204 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:21,720 Speaker 1: kai Kara France I think will go after the knockout. 205 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 1: I think he'll Kai Kara Frantz is gonna be wide open, 206 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 1: wide open to being submitted, and he has been knocked out, 207 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:33,839 Speaker 1: he has lost on the cards, and he's been submitted 208 00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:40,080 Speaker 1: by the guy Brandon roy Val who lost twice to Pantojia. 209 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:44,560 Speaker 1: So inside the distance mins one thirty five for one 210 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 1: point three to five units. And finally we go to 211 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:52,400 Speaker 1: the main event to Pouria against Ilia Ily, to Poria 212 00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:56,480 Speaker 1: against Charles Olavera. I have no idea who wins this fight. 213 00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: To Poria is amazing. He's a monster favorite. I mean, 214 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:01,719 Speaker 1: he's just a mass a favorite Mins three eighty at 215 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:06,200 Speaker 1: Circus Sports. Should he be that big of a favorite, Well, yeah, 216 00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:10,679 Speaker 1: most likely he should. Tail of the tape is my problem. 217 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:13,720 Speaker 1: So let's just lay it out. To Pooria is five 218 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:16,760 Speaker 1: to seven. He is moving up to the one fifty 219 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:22,320 Speaker 1: five lightweight weight. This is where Charles Olvera lives. This 220 00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 1: is his division Kai Kira France. In these featherweights, these 221 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 1: these flyweights, these light these guys that have fought here 222 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:33,560 Speaker 1: for a while at one thirty five and one twenty five. Okay, 223 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:36,280 Speaker 1: these are guys. To Poria is going from forty five 224 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 1: to fifty five. He's not going to cut much weight. 225 00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:41,800 Speaker 1: So the question is going to be how quick will 226 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 1: he be, how fast will he be? How fast will 227 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:47,160 Speaker 1: the hands be? At one fifty five, but he's five 228 00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:52,640 Speaker 1: to seven, Charles Olivera is five to ten. Olivera has 229 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:56,079 Speaker 1: a seventy four inch reach. To Poria has a sixty 230 00:13:56,200 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 1: nine inch reach. This is a five inch reach advantage 231 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 1: and a three inch height advantage. So you tell me, 232 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:07,319 Speaker 1: if you understand the principles of boxing, why in the 233 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:12,120 Speaker 1: world would char Charles Olivera run at to Poria. Why 234 00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:15,040 Speaker 1: would he do that? So that's the theory in the 235 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 1: thought that Olivera is gonna walk forward and to Poria 236 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 1: is gonna catch him and knock him out in the 237 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 1: first round. That's been his projection all along. I'm gonna 238 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 1: knock Olivera out in the first round. My problem with this, 239 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 1: I think the public is falling for something here. Now. 240 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:35,200 Speaker 1: I know that Olivera knocked out Darrouche, who's on this card, 241 00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:40,320 Speaker 1: in the first round. He catoed him. But Olivera beat 242 00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 1: Chandler by decision, and that's what got him into this fight. 243 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 1: Zerukian he lost a three round fight, split decision. He 244 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:54,440 Speaker 1: lost to Mackachief by submission in the second round. He 245 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:58,000 Speaker 1: beat Gai Chee, he beat Porier, he beat Chandler, he 246 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 1: beat Ferguson, he beat ke Lee. I mean he's beaten 247 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 1: everyone in this stack division. He's got a you know, 248 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 1: someone's scalp on the mantelpiece due Bronx is ridiculous, Okay, 249 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:14,160 Speaker 1: absolutely ridiculous. Average fight time is seven thirty eight for Olivera. 250 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 1: On the flip side to Pouria's average fight time is 251 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 1: ten fourteen. But if you're Charles Olivera, why are you 252 00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 1: rushing to Poria? Well, why are you rushing a guy 253 00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 1: who knocked out Max Holloway, who knocked out Alexander Voganowski, 254 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 1: who knocked out I guess decision by Josh Emmett, who 255 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:34,240 Speaker 1: submitted Bryce Mitchell. Why would you go forward and put 256 00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 1: yourself at risk immediately? Wouldn't you stay at distance and 257 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 1: try to feel your way through and see what you 258 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:45,720 Speaker 1: can do at distance? You have a long reach advantage, 259 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 1: You can kick, you can prod, you can score points 260 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 1: without having to engage. To Pooria early and allow him 261 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:58,240 Speaker 1: just to throw reckless, abandoned. The guy who needs to 262 00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:02,200 Speaker 1: close the distance is not Charles Olvera, So why would 263 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 1: he charge forward? I know he's claiming he's gonna walk forward, 264 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 1: but I think it's loning tunes to do that. I 265 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 1: don't think he's actually gonna do that. This fight actually 266 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 1: might be kind of boring. To be honest with you, 267 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 1: I think it might actually not be a great fight 268 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 1: because I don't think Olivera is gonna want to engage. 269 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 1: What's the point. Max Holloway wanted to sit there and 270 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 1: box to Poria. He wanted to teach him a lesson. 271 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 1: He was like, Okay, let's go ahead, let's go and 272 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:31,040 Speaker 1: throw you me. You know, main event, Let's go, let's 273 00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 1: throw hands and see what's gonna happen. Knockout in the 274 00:16:34,920 --> 00:16:38,280 Speaker 1: third round, knocked him out I mean, only guy in 275 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 1: the world ever knock out Max Holloway. But I mean, 276 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:47,160 Speaker 1: but my problem that was the featherweight title belt. This 277 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 1: is not for the featherweight tighter about tele belt, this 278 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:53,320 Speaker 1: is for the lightweight belt. So I just have a 279 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 1: hard time thinking that Olivera is going to somehow run 280 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:03,240 Speaker 1: in and get I think Toporia does win the fight. 281 00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:06,040 Speaker 1: But the one and a half rounds, that's seven and 282 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:09,399 Speaker 1: a half minutes. I need Charles Olivera to survive for 283 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 1: seven and a half minutes. How likely is that. I mean, 284 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:17,400 Speaker 1: I think it's pretty likely. I'm really surprised at the numbers. 285 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,880 Speaker 1: I mean again, Chandler was five rounds. Sarukim was three rounds. 286 00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:25,200 Speaker 1: He knocked out Da Ruche in the first. He lost 287 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:27,640 Speaker 1: to makat Chef in the second round. That went three 288 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:31,359 Speaker 1: sixteen into there. He knocked out Gaichi in the first sorry, 289 00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:35,760 Speaker 1: submitted Gaichee in the first round. Back in twenty twenty two, Chuck, 290 00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 1: he choked out Porier in the third round. Back in 291 00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:42,480 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one. I mean, he knocked out Chandler. He 292 00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 1: fought him twice, knocked him out in the second round. 293 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 1: I just have a hard time seeing Olivera going, yeah, 294 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:52,920 Speaker 1: let's go ahead and get into a firefight with Taporia 295 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:57,560 Speaker 1: right away. Taporia is gonna be carrying weight differently, He's 296 00:17:57,560 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 1: fighting at a higher weight class. What's the pay he's 297 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 1: gonna be? You know, Olavera is not gonna get tired. 298 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:05,800 Speaker 1: Why would you get let him off the hook? I 299 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 1: don't understand the number. I think one and a half 300 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:12,320 Speaker 1: is way too light. I think this fight goes like 301 00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:15,639 Speaker 1: three or four rounds. I'd be really surprised one and 302 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:18,720 Speaker 1: a half rounds is reserved for a heavyweight belt. Like, 303 00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:21,399 Speaker 1: we're giving a lot of respect to to Poria, a 304 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:25,200 Speaker 1: lot of respect for his punching power. Strikes landed per 305 00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:30,119 Speaker 1: minute four point sixty nine, that's not insane. Olivera only 306 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:34,040 Speaker 1: three point twenty one strikes absorbed per minute. Tough guy 307 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 1: to hit, we know that. Takedowns averaging two takedowns every 308 00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:43,280 Speaker 1: fifteen minutes for to Poria two point twenty five for Olivera, 309 00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:47,600 Speaker 1: ninety two percent takedown defense for to Poria. It's incredible, 310 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:51,960 Speaker 1: it's amazing. Du Bronx is only fifty six percent takedown defense, 311 00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:55,439 Speaker 1: but submission averages per three rounds per fifteen minutes is 312 00:18:55,480 --> 00:19:00,080 Speaker 1: one point one to two point seven. So if you're Olivera, 313 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:02,440 Speaker 1: don't you want to get to the ground and see 314 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:06,480 Speaker 1: if to Poria can defend. Can to Poriak be taken down? 315 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:09,280 Speaker 1: They said ninety two percent takedown defense, But if Olivera 316 00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:12,680 Speaker 1: gets a gets a window and he takes him down, 317 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:16,119 Speaker 1: it's gonna bleed clock, which is great for the over Again, 318 00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:18,400 Speaker 1: I think to Poria wins, but one and a half 319 00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:21,160 Speaker 1: rounds in a lightweight fight, I think is a little 320 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,959 Speaker 1: bit too respectful. And look, maybe Toporiy knocks him out 321 00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:25,960 Speaker 1: in the first three minutes and I'm dead wrong. But 322 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:29,840 Speaker 1: the price isn't bad. I mean, the price is actually 323 00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:33,960 Speaker 1: sort of amazing that we get minus one twenty five 324 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:36,879 Speaker 1: onto Poria in over one and a half rounds in 325 00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 1: Olivera at one point twenty five units. We're taking it 326 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 1: over one and a half rounds at minus one twenty 327 00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 1: five for one point twenty five units. Pantosia and Kai 328 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:50,000 Speaker 1: Kira France to end inside the distance. Don't care who wins, 329 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 1: just think that fight is not going to be a 330 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:55,160 Speaker 1: decision at Mius one thirty five for one point three 331 00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:59,240 Speaker 1: five units and Brandon Roval even money money line win 332 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:01,720 Speaker 1: for him, come out up in his fight up against 333 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 1: Joshua Van. Those are your last three fights of the 334 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:08,400 Speaker 1: night at UFC three p. Seventeen. I'll be there. Let's 335 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:11,800 Speaker 1: hopefully cash some tickets. Let's have some fun, no parlaying, 336 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:14,840 Speaker 1: no wonky stuff, just trying to cash three bets for 337 00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:17,240 Speaker 1: us here tonight and get back on the winning track 338 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 1: after four straight winning days. Minus Matt Perelt find me, 339 00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:23,160 Speaker 1: follow me across all my socials at Sports Talk Matt 340 00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:26,000 Speaker 1: every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts. It is 341 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:39,800 Speaker 1: the Daily Juice.