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Speaker 1: What's going on everybody? Scott Bogman here for betting pros

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Speaker 1: to give you my favorite picks and props for Week

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Speaker 1: four of the college football season. Learn mind, you guys,

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Speaker 1: who are brought to you by hard Rock Bet. It's

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Speaker 1: week four of the college football season. Like I just said,

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Speaker 1: home dogs that we actually kind of like. I've got

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Speaker 1: two on the money line for you. Nebraska versus Michigan

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Speaker 1: and Army both home dogs against North Texas here both

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Speaker 1: home dogs and the VP system likes them on the

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Speaker 1: money line. A couple of home dogs that they like

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Speaker 1: against the spread. Memphis plus seven and a half at

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Speaker 1: home against Arkansas Air Force plus ten and a half

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Speaker 1: Versupoise State, and Liberty plus nine and a half versus

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Speaker 2: one hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, in New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get into it. Let's look back at

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Speaker 1: week three. I want a light week three on fire,

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Speaker 1: one in seven on my picks, four and five on

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Speaker 1: my props. Just some miserable week, probably my worst weekend

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Speaker 1: of betting ever here. I mean, let's just go through

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Speaker 1: a Colorado. I had plus, I had the under Nope,

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Speaker 1: neither one of those hit. I just underestimated the give

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Speaker 1: up on this Colorado team. I really did. Kansas State

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Speaker 1: minus won in Arizona. They got down quick, looked bad,

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Speaker 1: made a come back in the second half. Couldn't punch

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Speaker 1: it in at the end to get that one point

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Speaker 1: win and at least push us, But didn't get that one.

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Speaker 1: The most wrong I've ever been on a football game

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Speaker 1: I've bet on in my life. Georgia at Tennessee under

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Speaker 1: fifty and a half. There was almost a thousand yards

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Speaker 1: of offense, and this one into overtime there's eighty five points.

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Speaker 1: So just completely straight up gigantic whiff there. I hadn't

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Speaker 1: seen it from Gunner Stockton. Didn't know he's going to

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Speaker 1: put it together on the road against Tennessee, right, and boy,

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Speaker 1: the Georgia defense was miserable, specifically in the first half.

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Speaker 1: So really surprised to see the game turn out like that.

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Speaker 1: Oregon State at Texas Tech. I had the over sixty

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Speaker 1: two and a half and I did warn about weather,

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Speaker 1: but the weather was clear in the forecast the night

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Speaker 1: before I placed this bet. There's a lightning delay, don't

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Speaker 1: hit it. We missed this one by one score. Vanderbilt

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Speaker 1: at South Carolina. I had the over there. Lenora Sellers

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Speaker 1: got hurt. Probably wouldn't have got there with Lenora Sellers either.

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Speaker 1: The one I did get last week, the Alabama team

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Speaker 1: total over thirty three and a half. They scored thirty eight.

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Speaker 1: Just thankful to get one. Ohio at Ohio State over

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Speaker 1: fifty one. Wow, this one. I talked about this on

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Speaker 1: the Monday show, so apologies if you heard me say

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Speaker 1: before the ball hit the tight end in the hand

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Speaker 1: at the end of the game, they could have gone

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Speaker 1: for it again or passed a couple times. I believe

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Speaker 1: there was seventeen seconds left. They ran the ball, let

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Speaker 1: the clock run out, So I mean the game was

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Speaker 1: over thirty seven to nine. But could have got my over.

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Speaker 1: If the tight end had caught that ball, I get

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Speaker 1: the over, but I didn't, So one in seven the props.

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Speaker 1: Noah Whittington showed up late on the injury report, didn't play,

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Speaker 1: so I'll just count that one as a loss. Other

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Speaker 1: than that, we were fifty to fifty. Hardy Gronowski both

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Speaker 1: got touchdowns. We had Baron Morton four touchdowns, and we

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Speaker 1: got Keon or Kevin Coleman excuse me, over fifty five

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Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards against Louisiana, but we missed

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Speaker 1: rock Obec. That Iowa State Arkansas State game was much

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Speaker 1: closer than we anticipated. And Beck only had the one

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Speaker 1: passing touchdown under on Oklahoma for Dion Burks under on

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Speaker 1: cam Coleman for South Auburn against South Alabama, and Mikaye

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Speaker 1: Lemon had five when I needed five and a half.

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Speaker 1: Obviously six catches against Purdue. But we're going to light

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Speaker 1: that week on fire, and we're going to go right

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Speaker 1: here in to week number four and give you my

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Speaker 1: picks here. And I feel better about this week and

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Speaker 1: know that I did a lot more deep diving this week,

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Speaker 1: not that I didn't deep dive the week before, but

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Speaker 1: just didn't work. So here's what I got for you.

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Speaker 1: And I've talked about some of these already. I'd still

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Speaker 1: love Miami minus seven and a half versus Florida, and

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Speaker 1: the big deal there is the big difference in this

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Speaker 1: game too, me is that Florida has been putting no

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Speaker 1: pressure on the quarterbacks. Two sacks this season. And now listen,

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Speaker 1: Long Island only passed eleven times, right, but it was

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Speaker 1: over thirty five for Brown. They only got him once.

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Speaker 1: They didn't get usher last week. At all, So they're

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Speaker 1: not doing a good job attacking the quarterback here. Carson

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Speaker 1: Beck's experience, he will sit and pick you apart. DJ

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Speaker 1: Lagway's probably playing the worst football he's ever played yet

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Speaker 1: five interceptions last week. Miami just looks like a good team.

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Speaker 1: Florida looks like a bad team. So we can look

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Speaker 1: at it statistically, we can go deep analytics and the

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Speaker 1: eyeball test. It's all Miami versus Florida. Florida has a

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Speaker 1: good roster, They're an SEC team, they have good recruits.

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Speaker 1: Right Lagway plays way better they can be in this

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Speaker 1: game and they can beat Miami. Like the roster is

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Speaker 1: good enough. But I underestimated to give up on some

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Speaker 1: teams that had lost games last week. I'm not doing

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Speaker 1: that again. I think Florida might have given up here

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Speaker 1: in Napier is going to get the acts pretty quick. Here.

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Speaker 1: Missouri minus nine and a half hosting South Carolina. This

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Speaker 1: one looks like Leonora Sellers is going to play. I

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Speaker 1: don't care if Leonora Sellers plays or not, because this

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Speaker 1: nine and a half is under ten is a big

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Speaker 1: advantage for US on BP, and this offense for Missouri

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Speaker 1: looks great right now. I mean bo Perbulah and Hardy

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Speaker 1: ran for a bunch of yards last year. Kevin Coleman

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Speaker 1: the transfer Mississippi State Norfleet their gigantic tight end. This

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Speaker 1: offense is humming. They're first on PFF statistically, they look amazing.

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Speaker 1: And South Carolina just hasn't been scoring points. They have

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Speaker 1: been moving the ball very well. And the losses on defense,

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Speaker 1: I mean, you saw it against Vanderbilt. Sure, Lenora Sellers

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Speaker 1: is out, you have to go to Luke Dody, Okay,

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Speaker 1: but seven points even with Luke Dodi for an SEC

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Speaker 1: team at home in a night game. I was shocked

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Speaker 1: by that performance with them, very very surprised by it.

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Speaker 1: And the losses on defense have just proven to be enormous.

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Speaker 1: They lost three or four on the defensive line. TJ.

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Speaker 1: Sanders talk a hemingway, Kyle Canard all gone, Demetrius Knight gone,

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Speaker 1: nickim and Worry gone, O'donald fortune gone. So many pieces

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Speaker 1: of defense are gone right now in Missouri's offense is

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Speaker 1: flaming white hot. So minus nine and a half, I

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Speaker 1: think they win this one going away. Specifically with Lenora

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Speaker 1: Sellers playing this game likely less well less than one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent of Fresno State by two and a half

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Speaker 1: at Hawaii, and I'm going the over forty seven and

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Speaker 1: a half. Here. Look, the three games that Fresno State

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Speaker 1: has won have all gone over and they're going to

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Speaker 1: run the ball right down Hawaii's throat, I think here.

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Speaker 1: And look, Hawaii does have the advantage being at home,

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Speaker 1: and it's a late start and all that. But they

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Speaker 1: are three and one also, but they obviously had the

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Speaker 1: luckiest win ever again Stanford, and they got stomped by

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Speaker 1: Arizona forty to seven. Remember, I don't think Arizona's that good.

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Speaker 1: They're better than I thought, but they shouldn't beating anybody

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Speaker 1: forty to seven, I don't think. And the rest of

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Speaker 1: their schedule is just weak. Their strength to schedule is

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Speaker 1: one hundred and fourteenth in the country, and you know,

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Speaker 1: Fresno doesn't have a really great strength to schedule, but

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Speaker 1: it's somewhere in the late seventies. It's not buried down

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Speaker 1: at one fourteen. Matt Ens ran a physical camp, and

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Speaker 1: I believe it was for games like this where you're

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Speaker 1: on the road, it's late, you're tired. Who wants to play? Right?

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Speaker 1: I think Fresno is going to win this game going away.

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Speaker 1: I think a thirty five to fourteen, a twenty eight,

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Speaker 1: twenty one, that stuff all gets us home. So we're

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Speaker 1: taking Fresno minus two and a half and the over.

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Speaker 1: If you want to just go Fresno on the money line,

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Speaker 1: it's not that bad. I would say that's okay as well.

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma minus six and a half versus Auburn, this one

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Speaker 1: is climbing. Not sure if we're going to get it

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Speaker 1: under a touchdown by the time kickoff happens here. But

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Speaker 1: there's two things here for me. Oklahoma is at home.

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Speaker 1: I think that John Matier is better than Jackson Arnold,

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Speaker 1: and will Venables watch Jackson Arnold in practice the whole year.

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Speaker 1: He he has the complete book on Jackson Arnold. So

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Speaker 1: while I do think that Jackson Arnold goes to Auburn

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Speaker 1: and makes them a better team, he doesn't make them

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Speaker 1: as good as John Mattier makes Oklahoma. Being at home

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Speaker 1: with that defense as well, I think this could have

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Speaker 1: been a good game visit, maybe at a neutral site

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Speaker 1: or if it was at Auburn, But being at Oklahoma,

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Speaker 1: I think Jackson Arnold's in for a long day here.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take the Sooners and lay the points

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Speaker 1: Vandy minus twenty seven and a half. I pointed this out.

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Speaker 1: I believe in my article that the BP system when

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Speaker 1: taking a team in laying more than twenty points, when

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Speaker 1: the suggestion is to lay the points of twenty or more,

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Speaker 1: the BP system is fifteen and four. Georgia State is

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Speaker 1: miserable this year. Vandy just whooped up on South Carolina

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Speaker 1: beat them by twenty four points. I think they can

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Speaker 1: beat Georgia State by more than that, specifically in a

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Speaker 1: home game. So Vandy minus twenty seven and a half,

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Speaker 1: I'll lay them. Purdue team total over thirteen and a

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Speaker 1: half at Notre Dame. I like this one because Notre

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Speaker 1: Dames defense is leaky. We saw it against Texas A

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Speaker 1: and m right. Marcel Reid known as a runner not

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Speaker 1: a passer, and he made a rain against the Notre

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Speaker 1: Dame defense. Carson Beck looked good. This is an angry

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame team and they do need to start stomping people,

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Speaker 1: right because you lose two games, don't have another ranked

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Speaker 1: team on the schedule. Maybe USC gets there by the

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Speaker 1: time they play USC. They don't have another rank team,

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Speaker 1: so they're just gonna have to start murdering some of

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Speaker 1: these teams. And they did beat Purdue sixty six to

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Speaker 1: seven last year, right, and that was at Purdue. This

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Speaker 1: is at Notre Dame. I think we're different, though. I

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Speaker 1: think there's too much of this defense that's missing. Specifically,

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Speaker 1: and Seth talked about this, Xavier Watts. Him being in

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Speaker 1: Atlanta has completely reshaped the secondary. It's like he took

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Speaker 1: a quarter of the field away, so big missing pieces.

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Speaker 1: I think Purdue can fall into the end zone twice,

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Speaker 1: specifically at the end of the game in garbage time.

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Speaker 1: I have two conditional picks for you. So these are conditional,

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Speaker 1: so let's wait on them. One is for news and

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Speaker 1: one is for a line to move. So the first one,

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Speaker 1: I want to take the points for Tulane on the

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Speaker 1: road to Ole, miss And I think Austin Simmons is

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Speaker 1: going to play. But I think Tulane is a very

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Speaker 1: good G six team. BP is showing us a little

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Speaker 1: bit of favor if this game gets too over, too touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: Right now, it's thirteen and a half. We wanted to

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Speaker 1: get to fourteen. Fourteen and a half. Somewhere in that

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Speaker 1: neighborhood we start to show value towards Tulane and I

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Speaker 1: like this team. I think it's a very good G

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Speaker 1: six team. I think they can stay in it at

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Speaker 1: least for a little bit. And then this one is

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Speaker 1: conditioned on news Antonio Williams. We're gonna go under thirty

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Speaker 1: six and a half for the team total. Now, look,

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Speaker 1: I know a lot of people have been saying, Hey,

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Speaker 1: Clemson is angry. I'm going to go out there and

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Speaker 1: stop people. Okay, well I thought that in Week two

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Speaker 1: against Troy. It did not happen, and Kay Klubnik is

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Speaker 1: a completely different quarterback with and without Antonio Williams. So

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Speaker 1: this one is conditional. But if there is no Antonio

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Speaker 1: Williams in this Week four matchup, I am not gonna

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Speaker 1: take this bet or I am going to take this

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Speaker 1: bet under thirty six and a half. But if he

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Speaker 1: plays complete, stay away because maybe they do do some stomping.

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Speaker 1: If you're looking up your game in sports betting, join

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Speaker 1: our exclusive sports betting discord community at betting pros dot

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Speaker 1: com slash Chat. Not only can you connect with expert

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Speaker 1: handicappers who provide free picks for the NBA, NFL, MLB,

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Speaker 1: NHL player props, Live betting and more. But now you

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Speaker 1: can also participate in our weekly community picks. Cast your vote,

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Speaker 1: you can see how your pick stand up against the

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Speaker 1: experts and track your success. Go and do it today

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Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com slash chat. All right, let's get

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Speaker 1: to the props. I peeled back a little bit number one.

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Speaker 1: Not a lot of props available right now, which is

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Speaker 1: kind of surprising. I'm recording this later Thursday, like a

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Speaker 1: little touch before Thursday, and football is a little earlier

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Speaker 1: than I typically do it. But not a lot around.

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Speaker 1: There was nothing for Florida State that I saw, So

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Speaker 1: we'll see if we get some others. If I get

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Speaker 1: some that I take, I'll tweet them out at Bogman Sports.

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Speaker 1: But right now, for the touchdown, we're gonna go Haines

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Speaker 1: King First Temple, We're gonna go Arkansas. Taylor Green the

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Speaker 1: quarterback at Memphis. We're gonna go Vandy. I think they're

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Speaker 1: gonna smoke Georgia State, and he scored three touchdowns in

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Speaker 1: the last two games. Running back Cedric Calexander Washington, running

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Speaker 1: back Jonah Coleman at Washington State. He scored five touchdowns

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Speaker 1: last week. So Arizona State, Jordan Tyson at Baylor are

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Speaker 1: also four touchdowns in three games, so touchdown calls one

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Speaker 1: more time. Haines King versus Temple due to score a

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Speaker 1: touchdown in every game, Taylor Green at Memphis. Dude was

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Speaker 1: huge in that loss to Ole Miss last week. Cedric

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Speaker 1: Alexander versus Georgia State, Jonah Coleman at Washington State, and

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Speaker 1: Jordan Tyson at Baylor. The yardage and other props that

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Speaker 1: I have, We're gonna go over one and a half

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Speaker 1: passing touchdowns for Carson Beck against Florida. We talked about

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Speaker 1: the lack of pressure that Florida has been putting on

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Speaker 1: the quarterback, Caleb Banks with their nose tackle, probably going

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Speaker 1: to miss this game or at least not be one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent. And Carson Beck his touchdowns in his three

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Speaker 1: games two to two and three and that's seven and

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Speaker 1: three games. I think he can easily get to two

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Speaker 1: in this game. We're gonna go for a big total here.

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Speaker 1: Jeremiah Love over one hundred and a half rushing yards

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Speaker 1: versus Purdue. It took him ten carries to clear this

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Speaker 1: last year, so he had twenty three carries last week.

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Speaker 1: This is an angry team. They know they need. Their

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Speaker 1: defense is leaking and they need to hold the ball.

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Speaker 1: I think Jeremiah Love gets like fifteen to seventeen carries

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Speaker 1: in this game, and he probably has well over one

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Speaker 1: hundred yards against a perdue defense. We're gonna go to

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Speaker 1: Kansas and take wide receiver e Manuel Henderson over forty

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Speaker 1: three and a half receiving yards versus West Virginia. He's

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Speaker 1: leading all Kansas wide receivers in targets. He is averaging

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Speaker 1: fifteen point three yards per reception, so that means he

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Speaker 1: needs three catches in this game. And he has the

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Speaker 1: longest reception for the Jayhawks this season, so he can

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Speaker 1: make a big play and get a lot of this

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Speaker 1: as well. And our last prop, We're gonna go to

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Speaker 1: Missouri to the tight end Brett Norfleet over eighteen and

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Speaker 1: a half receiving yards versus South Carolina and Stours was

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Speaker 1: the leading receiver against South Carolina for Vandy last week.

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Speaker 1: He is also a tight end, and I just think

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Speaker 1: this Missouri offense is clicking right now in South Carolina

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Speaker 1: has lost a lot of pieces. But I want to

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Speaker 1: remind you guys before I leave to track your bets,

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Speaker 1: stay accountable and level up by downloading the Betting Pros app.

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Speaker 1: With Sportsbook Sync, you can automatically track your bets across

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Speaker 1: all major sports books in one spot. Easily monitor your

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Speaker 1: bet performance by sport and bet type, including game picks, props,

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Speaker 1: and parlays. Create custom betting systems to find winning trends

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Speaker 1: and profitable opportunities. Get a seven day free trial bettingpros

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Speaker 1: dot Com at betting Pros Premium by using the promo

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Speaker 1: code Juice and activating your trial on the upgrade screen

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Speaker 1: easy piece you download the Betting Pros app today. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's review. What are we take in for our picks?

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Speaker 1: Miami minus seven and a half first, Florida Missouri, We're

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Speaker 1: laying nine and a half against South Carolina. We're taking

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Speaker 1: Fresno State minus two and a half at Hawaii and

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Speaker 1: the over. We're taking Oklahoma lane, the points, taking Vandy lane,

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Speaker 1: the points. We're taking Purdue team total over thirteen and

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Speaker 1: a half, two conditionals here to lane. If it gets

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Speaker 1: to two touchdowns, we're taking the point. We're getting the

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Speaker 1: points at least fourteen and then Clemson under thirty six

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Speaker 1: and a half only if Antonio Williams is not playing

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Speaker 1: on Saturday. Probably have to wait to Saturday for that one.

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Speaker 1: Our props touchdowns for Haines King, Taylor Green, Cedric Alexander,

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Speaker 1: Jonah Coleman, and Jordan Tyson are then We're going over

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Speaker 1: one and a half passing touchdowns for Carson Beck, We're

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Speaker 1: going over on yards, one hundred and a half for

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Speaker 1: Jeremiah Love, forty three and a half for Emmanuel Henderson,

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Speaker 1: and eighteen and a half for Brett Norfleet. That is

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Speaker 1: all for me today, Good luck everybody, and I will

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Speaker 1: see you next week.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

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Speaker 1: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

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Speaker 1: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

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Speaker 1: Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to

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Speaker 1: our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.