WEBVTT - The ANC Lose Its Majority, What Does It Mean For South Africa?

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Hi.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm Jennifer Zabasaja and this is a special episode of

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<v Speaker 3>the Next Africa podcast. In South Africa, the African National Congress,

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<v Speaker 3>the leading party in the country, has lost its parliamentary

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<v Speaker 3>majority for the first time since Nelson Mandela led them

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<v Speaker 3>to power at the end of apartheid in nineteen ninety four.

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<v Speaker 3>Today I'm joined by Bloomberg Government and Eco reporter stembile Lele,

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<v Speaker 3>who's been covering this election extensively, and we discuss how

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<v Speaker 3>one of the most important elections for South Africa has

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<v Speaker 3>unfolded and what the results mean for the country. So, Stembilay,

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<v Speaker 3>thanks so much for joining us. You have been following

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<v Speaker 3>this race very closely, this election closely. We're at the

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<v Speaker 3>results center for the past few days. What do you

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<v Speaker 3>make of the results? What are they telling us?

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<v Speaker 2>It's a crazy time. I don't know that anyone could

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<v Speaker 2>have predicted at this moment that we're in and a

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<v Speaker 2>lot or not enough where the ANC is concerned, can happen.

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<v Speaker 2>Over thirty years, it went from having two hundred odd

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<v Speaker 2>seats in parliament now two one hundred and fifty nine

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<v Speaker 2>and now it's in a position where it actually has

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<v Speaker 2>to share powered. I think what has led us to

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<v Speaker 2>this moment in parts is, of course there's issues are

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<v Speaker 2>the own sense of incumbency of the ANC. It struggled

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<v Speaker 2>to provide services, that struggle to deal decisively with corruption

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<v Speaker 2>within its ranks, and even outside of it with what

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<v Speaker 2>these crippling power cuts, the economy is not growing. But

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<v Speaker 2>also what this selection has shown is that within its

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<v Speaker 2>own house there's some very deep seated issues that needs

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<v Speaker 2>to be resolved.

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<v Speaker 3>You've been covering the government for a number of years.

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<v Speaker 3>Even the A and C themselves seem to be quite

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<v Speaker 3>surprised at this outcome, despite what you just mentioned about

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<v Speaker 3>what we've seen over the past few years with this economy.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think there's an interesting dynamic to mention here.

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<v Speaker 2>There is the narrative, and I suppose it does make

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<v Speaker 2>sense to say that, you know, the ANC has lost

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<v Speaker 2>the support of so many people. They no longer have

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<v Speaker 2>an interest in the ANC and the way that.

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<v Speaker 4>It does things.

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<v Speaker 2>But if you look at the ANC's share of the vote,

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<v Speaker 2>along with the u KANDOCS, Were Party and the Economic

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<v Speaker 2>Freedom Fighters, these three parties are in essence one monster,

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<v Speaker 2>one machine. The EFF and kand OSS are offspring or

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<v Speaker 2>breakaway parties as we call them in South Africa of

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<v Speaker 2>the A ANDC, and together they have well over fifty

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<v Speaker 2>percent of the vote, and that kind of tells you

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<v Speaker 2>that people may not be happy with the A and C,

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<v Speaker 2>but they still do have a bond to it, They

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<v Speaker 2>do still prefer it. They just wanted to do something different.

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<v Speaker 2>When you look at the main opposition, the DA, they're

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<v Speaker 2>in it around twenty one twenty two percent. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>it's a significant share of the vote, but it still

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<v Speaker 2>tells you that they're struggling to attract the majority of

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<v Speaker 2>black voters. And so I think that that is significant.

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<v Speaker 2>It's not an outright rejection.

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<v Speaker 4>Of the A and C. Of course, it does remain

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<v Speaker 4>the biggest party.

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<v Speaker 2>That's the most important thing, even without the outright parliamentary majority.

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<v Speaker 2>But what I'm say seeing from these results in the

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<v Speaker 2>parties that are getting support is that there's an element

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<v Speaker 2>of the ANC that people want to keep going.

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<v Speaker 4>They perhaps just wanted to do better.

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<v Speaker 3>And somewhat at the center of this, or I guess

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<v Speaker 3>the face of this is President Serio Ramoposa, because he

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<v Speaker 3>is the leader of the party. We heard him speak

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<v Speaker 3>for the first time over the weekend since the election.

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<v Speaker 5>What this election has made plain is that the people

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<v Speaker 5>of South Africa expect their leaders to work together to

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<v Speaker 5>meet their needs. They expect the parties for which they

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<v Speaker 5>have voted to find a common ground, to overcome their differences,

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<v Speaker 5>to act and work together for the good of everyone.

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<v Speaker 3>How does he play into these maneuvering these discussions that

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<v Speaker 3>are happening right now.

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<v Speaker 2>So he is in a difficulty position, right he is

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<v Speaker 2>now forever in the history book's going to be the

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<v Speaker 2>guy who led the ANC to its worst electoral performance

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<v Speaker 2>by far. It's a watershed moment in the body politics

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<v Speaker 2>of South Africa and in particular for the ANC. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>it's like you say, they're completely shocked. They're surprised by

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<v Speaker 2>how this could happen to them. There is that disbelief

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<v Speaker 2>that's there. But what it does for for sil Ramapassas

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<v Speaker 2>it puts them in a very difficult position.

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<v Speaker 3>One.

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<v Speaker 2>We know that just in terms of his personality, he's

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<v Speaker 2>a bit of a runner. If we're being honest, He's

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<v Speaker 2>resigned before. Press him to resign when things have gotten tough,

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<v Speaker 2>and so we're really going to see his metal. We're

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<v Speaker 2>going to see his backbone if any, over the next

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<v Speaker 2>few days, because he's going to require some serious political fortitude.

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<v Speaker 2>The first I think issue he's going to face is

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<v Speaker 2>when he meets with the party's National Executive Committee on Tuesday.

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<v Speaker 2>That meeting is going to be very important because it's

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<v Speaker 2>going to discuss the configurations of a coalition or an

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<v Speaker 2>informal power sharing agreement with other parties. And one of

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<v Speaker 2>the things he's going to come up again is the

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<v Speaker 2>idea of looking into going into an agreement with a

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<v Speaker 2>party like the Democratic Alliance, which, as we know, the

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<v Speaker 2>market's favor. They believe that that kind of coalision would

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<v Speaker 2>be favorable. It would lead to policy continuity. Both parties

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<v Speaker 2>are quite economically conservative and so it seems to be

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<v Speaker 2>a good match, but politically it is an extremely difficult decision.

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<v Speaker 4>They have been completely on opposing sides.

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<v Speaker 2>The other issue then becomes is if he does lose

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<v Speaker 2>that fights, and even if he doesn't, the other consideration

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<v Speaker 2>is around teaming up with the MKP party led by

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<v Speaker 2>Jacob Zuma. And what we know about this party, at

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<v Speaker 2>least at this point, is that the one demand that

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<v Speaker 2>it has, even before talks begin formally is the resignation

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<v Speaker 2>of Si Rama Pasa zumas vendetta with Rama Porsa.

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<v Speaker 4>It's a serious one.

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<v Speaker 2>He wants Rama Pasa to know that he, at least

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<v Speaker 2>in his eyes, is a better leader than him. He

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<v Speaker 2>is the one that can preserve the ANC, where he

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<v Speaker 2>sees the ANC having been destroyed under Rama Pasa's reign.

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<v Speaker 3>And you mentioned and the other parties, I mean, how

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<v Speaker 3>have they been reacting to these results, to this current

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<v Speaker 3>outcome and this current predicament related the country is in.

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<v Speaker 2>So the other parties, even before this election, they were

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<v Speaker 2>saying that, you know, if things don't go their way

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<v Speaker 2>and the opposition block is not able to form a government,

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<v Speaker 2>is not able to convince the majority of South Africans

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<v Speaker 2>to give them a chance to lead, that they would

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<v Speaker 2>look to avoid what they called a doomsday scenario in

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<v Speaker 2>which the A and C teams up with the leftist

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<v Speaker 2>economic freedom Fighters. So we know that the opposition Block,

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<v Speaker 2>led by the Democratic Alliance, their main goal going into

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<v Speaker 2>this election was to reduce the share of the vote

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<v Speaker 2>that the ANC has. They were really looking to have

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<v Speaker 2>them lose this outright majority that they've had for thirty years.

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<v Speaker 2>Here's what the leader of the party, John Dnasen had

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<v Speaker 2>to say to the outcomes.

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<v Speaker 1>We will do what we can to prevent what I've

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<v Speaker 1>called since April last year a doomsday coalition coalition between

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<v Speaker 1>the A and C and the radicals in the AFAF

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<v Speaker 1>for the controversies were party because those policies will takes

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<v Speaker 1>till they frige down the same road to Zimbabwe.

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<v Speaker 2>Of course at the time, they weren't looking at the

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<v Speaker 2>risk emerging entirely from Jacob Zumer's MKP, which has obviously

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<v Speaker 2>done the most as what we've seen and the significance

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<v Speaker 2>of this party is the incredible showing that it's had

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<v Speaker 2>in its debut, garnering more than three million votes.

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<v Speaker 4>It's unprecedented.

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<v Speaker 2>With all of the parties that we've seen pop up

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<v Speaker 2>since nineteen ninety four, it's by far been the most successful.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think there's a struggle now, there's a scrum

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<v Speaker 2>to have these conversations with the A ANDCS to try

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<v Speaker 2>and form a government in which everyone can play a role.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think that's what the next seven days are about.

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<v Speaker 2>They're very crucial. So I think that the ball is

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<v Speaker 2>definitely in the ANC's court. Other parties have met at

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<v Speaker 2>an executive level. They have a position going into these talks.

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<v Speaker 2>They're just waiting for the approach now, and they're waiting

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<v Speaker 2>to see what it is that the A ANDC is

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<v Speaker 2>willing to put on the table to move things forward.

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<v Speaker 3>I know you said the ANC the ball is in

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<v Speaker 3>their court obviously because they're at the billing party. But

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<v Speaker 3>does Jacob Zumer and the MK Party are they really

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<v Speaker 3>the king makers here? Do they have the upper hand

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<v Speaker 3>moving forward?

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<v Speaker 2>So I think the block that is the main consideration

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<v Speaker 2>at the moment would be the A and C, the

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<v Speaker 2>Democratic Alliance they incut, a Freedom Party, and maybe one

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<v Speaker 2>or two smaller ones. These three or four parties alone

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<v Speaker 2>seem to be able to have the numbers to form

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<v Speaker 2>a government in Quaslu Natal, which is a key province

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<v Speaker 2>along with Houting, and then it also solds.

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<v Speaker 4>For the national question as well.

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<v Speaker 2>The two provinces that I've mentioned, they're key because they

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<v Speaker 2>are the most populous, they basically determine the outcome of

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<v Speaker 2>this election, but they are also the economic hubs of

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<v Speaker 2>the country, and so I think what the A and

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<v Speaker 2>C is really looking for is an agreement which will

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<v Speaker 2>cover those provinces, possibly even municipal governments across the country,

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<v Speaker 2>as well as the national question. It does seem possible

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<v Speaker 2>that they can have the desired outcome, which really is

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<v Speaker 2>to avoid a scenario in which Jacob Zuma has the

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<v Speaker 2>power to determine the fate of firstly a civil rama

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<v Speaker 2>POSA and then more efficent that of the A ANDC

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<v Speaker 2>in general.

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<v Speaker 3>Susan Simbi, they're just moving forward. I mean for the markets,

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<v Speaker 3>investors are already starting to react to this fork in

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<v Speaker 3>the road. As one put it, What does this all

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<v Speaker 3>mean though?

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<v Speaker 4>For markets?

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<v Speaker 3>Are they just on stand by until we get more certainty?

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<v Speaker 2>I think there's a lot of speculation, there's a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of anxiety because no one knows what's happening behind closed.

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<v Speaker 4>Doors or these political parties, what we are.

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<v Speaker 2>Going to have now, and what I think everyone is

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<v Speaker 2>looking out for is what do the demands of each

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<v Speaker 2>party look like? What is it that they are not

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<v Speaker 2>willing to compromise on in the formation of this new government.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think obviously from a market perspective, you're looking

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<v Speaker 2>at key ministries in cabinet right, You're looking at something

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<v Speaker 2>like National Treasury, maybe the Department of Trade and Industry

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<v Speaker 2>as to who leads these because all along it's been

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<v Speaker 2>an A and C show. But now you may have

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<v Speaker 2>someone from the Democratic Alliance, someone from the IFP coming

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<v Speaker 2>in and you're going to question, you know, unknowns, people

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<v Speaker 2>that are not known to the markets. There's going to

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<v Speaker 2>be subjetitus around whether or not they're able to fill

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<v Speaker 2>the big that would have been left by their predecessors.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, you would think with the election over it would

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<v Speaker 3>make your job easier stimulate, but it seems like it's

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<v Speaker 3>really just getting started. But remarkable reporting from you and

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<v Speaker 3>the team. Really appreciate you joining us for this episode.

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<v Speaker 3>Thanks very much for having me and thank you for

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<v Speaker 3>joining us for this special episode of the Next Africa

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<v Speaker 3>podcast focusing on the result of the election in South Africa.

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<v Speaker 3>As Stembile noted, there is a lot of uncertainty right

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<v Speaker 3>now within the parties, within the country and also within

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<v Speaker 3>the markets. What will be key to pay attention to

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<v Speaker 3>is how these negotiations are going behind the scenes and

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<v Speaker 3>also what the messaging is going to be like for

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<v Speaker 3>the electorate, for the voters and the supporters of these

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<v Speaker 3>individual parties, and also for the global community. Thank you

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<v Speaker 3>for listening.

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<v Speaker 2>Stepp