1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,920 Speaker 1: Brought you by Bank of America, Mary Lynch. Investing in 2 00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:07,840 Speaker 1: local communities, economies and a sustainable future. That's a power 3 00:00:08,080 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 1: of global connections. Mary Lynch, Pierce Fenner and Smith Incorporated 4 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 1: member s I p C. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 5 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:31,520 Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you 6 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:36,600 Speaker 1: insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 7 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:41,600 Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and 8 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 1: of course on the Bloomberg Joe Quillin with US with 9 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:53,520 Speaker 1: US Trust Merry Lynch and working on a broader thematic strategy. 10 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 1: Let me come to the theme. I was having dinner 11 00:00:56,960 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 1: in Mayfair the evening of June twe on the fourth 12 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 1: ten am on Junee, the world came to an end 13 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:07,679 Speaker 1: for England, for Britain, for the United Kingdom. And then 14 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:10,760 Speaker 1: the next morning was a total uproar. And at seven 15 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:13,959 Speaker 1: pm on a summer's evening, I had a dinner there. 16 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:18,119 Speaker 1: The world was gonna end. November eight, the world's gonna 17 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 1: end once again. Here we are at twenty eight hundred. 18 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:25,880 Speaker 1: So when do I know when to get out? I 19 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:28,120 Speaker 1: think that's a great question Tom in the sense that 20 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:33,840 Speaker 1: the politicians have to pay attention to the populist movement 21 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: that's angry a lot of anks. Yet the key is 22 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:41,479 Speaker 1: they're they're responding to us. So you remember austerity. Now 23 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 1: we've got more fiscal spending. So when we if we 24 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 1: do not get these policies in place that promote growth 25 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 1: trickled down and I hate that concept because it rarely happens, 26 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 1: then we're gonna see more pressure on the politicians to 27 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 1: spend more. And I think the markets will take that 28 00:01:58,160 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 1: the wrong way and here we go, we roll over. 29 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 1: So's it's the key, the politics responding to the populism 30 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 1: that creates the growth that kind of pacifies and pushes 31 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 1: back kind of the day of reckoning when in particularly 32 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 1: in your credit markets. So we're not there yet. But Joe, 33 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 1: why are we seeing these record highs for in disease? 34 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:17,520 Speaker 1: Is it really unfundamentals or it's still that cheap money 35 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 1: out there, Francy Nancy, It's combination. It is. It is 36 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 1: cheap money, there's no doubt about that. It's the fundamentals. 37 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 1: It's a cyclical upswing and it's also in particular the 38 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 1: expectation that dabos Man will respond to this popular populace 39 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 1: uprising and make it happen. Pacify the workers, everyone that's angry. Trickle. 40 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:39,400 Speaker 1: You're seeing the employment numbers gradually improve and there's a 41 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:42,959 Speaker 1: lot of noise there. So it's the expectation that the 42 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:48,600 Speaker 1: simulus is coming. Alright, what does it take to correct or, 43 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 1: as you say, to see a little bit of a 44 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 1: pullback from these in disease. I think it's going to 45 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 1: be profit taking. Um, you know, I think a lot 46 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:58,800 Speaker 1: of hedge funds from Francine is too young to remember 47 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 1: what that phrases. I have not, I have not. I 48 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:06,639 Speaker 1: have not heard that phrase seven years one time. I 49 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 1: think you know this cliche, you know, selling may and 50 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 1: go away. I think that's gonna be come with a vengeance. 51 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:13,120 Speaker 1: So we have calling of the twins. Do you have 52 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:16,680 Speaker 1: a tape recorder on? We just said Millard, Mr Quinlan 53 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:19,079 Speaker 1: here say selling may and go Away's gonna work this year. 54 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:21,919 Speaker 1: I'm really thinking the last four years in a row, 55 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 1: it's been a total fraud. It's been a total all 56 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 1: But this year from from the election, I think people 57 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:28,840 Speaker 1: will take their profits and the key will be, well, 58 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:30,800 Speaker 1: what's gonna happen in June July. When it comes to 59 00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:33,639 Speaker 1: the actual policy background. If we don't get the policies 60 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 1: coming forward, then then we're gonna have some real prompts 61 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:37,920 Speaker 1: and the critical moment will be in the summer. Help 62 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 1: Francine here when we got you for the whole half hour, 63 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 1: which is great. Help Francing Rechoir with your idea of 64 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 1: a global lift. She is so weighted down by the 65 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: collapse of Italy, all the political stuff, etcetera. She was 66 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 1: weighted down by Burbery, had no plaid and there in 67 00:03:55,520 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 1: their show this ye. But but come on, Joe, help 68 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:03,240 Speaker 1: me here with the global lift. Nobody's buying you. Well 69 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 1: at the time, the numbers are there. I mean, you 70 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 1: see the p m I numbers. You see China stabilizing, Brazil, 71 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 1: Russia better. Um, you know the developed markets are playing 72 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 1: along in Japan's numbers, so I think. But the monetary 73 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 1: stimulus has been out there for so long as you 74 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:21,239 Speaker 1: know that it does, it's it's not gonna it's finally working. 75 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:25,279 Speaker 1: I'm not looking for like they're a bit better, but 76 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:28,200 Speaker 1: but they're not what we saw ten fifteen years ago. 77 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 1: We're never going back to pre crisis levels. Or are 78 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 1: we now? I would never say never, Francy and I 79 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:36,640 Speaker 1: agree with you. It's gonna be more muted growth growth. 80 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 1: But if we can get the global GDP growth average 81 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 1: back to three and a half three point seven percent 82 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 1: in that range, have the emerging market stabilized, then we 83 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 1: can kind of plod forward. And I would I would 84 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 1: agree in the sense that maybe the markets are giving 85 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:51,359 Speaker 1: too much credit to the policy makers and the economic background. 86 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 1: But earnings are good. I mean, corporations are doing a 87 00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 1: great job managing their expenses. They're using technology to be 88 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:02,039 Speaker 1: more productive. That you can't discount that either. Okay, but 89 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 1: how do you deal? And and Tom and I were 90 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:06,160 Speaker 1: in Davos and it was the Davos Man or the 91 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 1: Devils Woman. Looking at this new world order where globalization 92 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:13,159 Speaker 1: is not the name of the game anymore. When do 93 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 1: markets realize, Well, I don't think Francy and I haven't 94 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 1: thrown in the towel on globalization. I think we've kind 95 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:21,840 Speaker 1: of hit the pause button, and perhaps we kind of 96 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 1: we've got to reconfigure it or rethink it, or kind 97 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:27,800 Speaker 1: of like make it more broader, more integrated. So I 98 00:05:28,279 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 1: the markets have certainly not priced in de globalization. If 99 00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:34,440 Speaker 1: they had, then we'd have a bigger problem. So we 100 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 1: gotta look. You know, actually global trade volumes are picking up, 101 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:41,920 Speaker 1: trade flows are increasing, m and A globally is picking up. 102 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:45,719 Speaker 1: But I think there's too much I would say optimism 103 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:48,599 Speaker 1: around the policy backdrop, and so if there's any failure there, 104 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:50,600 Speaker 1: we've got problems. Let me do this for Francy, because 105 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 1: fancy and I know you're based in Sterling. The doll 106 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:58,840 Speaker 1: this year, if you're in London up SPI underperformed. It's 107 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:02,040 Speaker 1: up only thirty six percent. The foot seas up twenty 108 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 1: If you invested in Tokyo from Sterling, you're up thirty 109 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:13,160 Speaker 1: four percent. I mean, it's a most unloved, ginormous bullmarket, Joe, 110 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:15,800 Speaker 1: I've ever seen Francy. Get it one more question and 111 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:18,920 Speaker 1: you're not gonna do some breaking news. Yeah, what the currencies? 112 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:20,599 Speaker 1: You know, when you look at in the season around 113 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 1: the world, what's the currency you want to be in? 114 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:24,840 Speaker 1: Um the Mexican pay So, I mean we've I've been 115 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:26,440 Speaker 1: saying that for quite some time. I think it's you know, 116 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 1: it was oversold. I still think there's more upside. Francine 117 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:32,360 Speaker 1: at the Quad London I'm Tom keenan New York with 118 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 1: this Joe Quinlan. We continue our discussion, let's run it 119 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 1: over to economics. I mean just Cheer Yelling is she's 120 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:42,840 Speaker 1: central banker to the world, and I think a question 121 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 1: for the weekend reading. Does Cheer Yelling care about the 122 00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 1: record lows in the German two year My guesses she does. Well, 123 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 1: she she has to. You're you're right, and it's interesting 124 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,719 Speaker 1: we haven't talked much about the FED thus far this morning. 125 00:06:57,279 --> 00:07:00,279 Speaker 1: I think the feed is looking to looking at the data, 126 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 1: saying they're gonna move perhaps in March, if not June, 127 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:05,480 Speaker 1: maybe twice this year put some ammunition back in the bank, 128 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:08,560 Speaker 1: so they have that ready, but certainly worried about the 129 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 1: numbers coming out of Germany. But I do think what 130 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 1: we'll have to see how that plays out. And I'm 131 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 1: sure she's worried about distress out of Italy in Spain 132 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 1: that's driving those flows in the German Say paper, Joe, 133 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:22,120 Speaker 1: how would you look at political risk in Europe? Does 134 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 1: it play out two weeks before the French election? Does 135 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 1: it wait until something ugly happens? To talk me through 136 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 1: the psychology of the markets right now? Well, I mean, 137 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 1: we're looking at the Dutch elections, see how that plays out. 138 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 1: Watch the currency. I mean, the currencies is always a 139 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:39,640 Speaker 1: canary in a coal mine. So I think, you know 140 00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:44,040 Speaker 1: we're here, here's francing. We should not be so surprised 141 00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:46,280 Speaker 1: in two thousand and seventeen as we were in sixteen. 142 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 1: If we do get these political shocks quote unquote, So 143 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:52,200 Speaker 1: the markets are pricing in perhaps being a little bit 144 00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:55,600 Speaker 1: more cautious, more risk management. So if Lapen or if 145 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:59,120 Speaker 1: there's any kind of a populous movement that gains traction 146 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 1: in Europe this year, that should not be so surprising 147 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 1: to investors. So maybe that mutes the reaction. What if 148 00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:08,480 Speaker 1: we're jumping at shadows? Joe. We had a brilliant piece 149 00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 1: by Mark Gilbert, one of our Bloomberg View columnists, saying, 150 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:14,560 Speaker 1: what if Sen meant that the markets are jumping at 151 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 1: shadows because now we're pricing political risk everywhere when there's none. Well, 152 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 1: then that perhaps means that we have this cyclical rebound, 153 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 1: we get the policy pro growth policy put in place. 154 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:29,960 Speaker 1: Remember we've had too much austerity and too much dependence 155 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:33,840 Speaker 1: on monetary policy since the crisis. If we do if 156 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:35,840 Speaker 1: it's a head fake, but we still get the fiscal 157 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 1: stimulus that tells me that we've got decent overall nominal 158 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:42,959 Speaker 1: global growth, which is gonna be good for earnings and equities. 159 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:47,040 Speaker 1: When I look, Joe h the idea of I got 160 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 1: a four O one K. And let's assume that our 161 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:55,240 Speaker 1: audience is behind those numbers I quoted earlier. How do 162 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:57,920 Speaker 1: you catch up? I mean, we've been here before. There's 163 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 1: been other bull markets where we've been behind. But I 164 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:04,319 Speaker 1: don't believe I've ever seen you know, all the different 165 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: theories and efficient markets and allocation. Come on, we just 166 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 1: want to I just can I just do the sp 167 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:14,920 Speaker 1: And a lot of people can't say that. How do 168 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:17,400 Speaker 1: you catch up? I mean, don't swing for the fences. 169 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 1: You and you have to save, right, I mean you 170 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 1: have to have the capital to make capital. So we're 171 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:26,680 Speaker 1: looking at kind of these long term divotting growers. Payers 172 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 1: don't panic the answers. We gotta put a lot more money. 173 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:31,720 Speaker 1: We gotta put a lot more money, you know, and 174 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 1: and that takes away from discretionary spending. That's just where 175 00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 1: we're at, and I don't think we're gonna make it. 176 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 1: Francine is the United Kingdom. The same. I have no 177 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:42,160 Speaker 1: idea is the United Kingdom the same and that everybody's 178 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 1: under invested like we have off the Arisa Act of Well, 179 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 1: I'm not sure. It's a great question for Joe. The 180 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:51,280 Speaker 1: I guess the million dollar question Joe is are we 181 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 1: under invested because of bregsit or did it happen before? 182 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:58,200 Speaker 1: I think perhaps before? And I do think you know, 183 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 1: this is a great study economists. How much did monetary 184 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 1: policy post a crisis really create income inequality? Where inflated 185 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:10,240 Speaker 1: the asset values for people who own the assets versus 186 00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:12,640 Speaker 1: the folks who didn't and created the spread which then 187 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:16,160 Speaker 1: created the ankst and anger related populism. Are talking about 188 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:18,400 Speaker 1: that one more question and offer that William Gross has 189 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 1: told us with Jana's Capital that the financial repression will 190 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 1: continue for years, if not decades. Are you saying at 191 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:28,920 Speaker 1: some point we will normalize and we will see assets 192 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:33,240 Speaker 1: subdue and the income disparity will lessen. Is the rich 193 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:36,600 Speaker 1: get poorer? Not necessarily rich get poor, but we kind 194 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 1: of have the pie distribution differently. We're gonna have to 195 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:45,199 Speaker 1: bring along the folks that are left behind the populace uprising, 196 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 1: or you should be all in the cash think of 197 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 1: it that way. So the policy responses to be more 198 00:10:49,880 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 1: pro growth, more stimulus, and that for a while medium 199 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:55,520 Speaker 1: term is good for equities. But I think this is 200 00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:58,120 Speaker 1: one of those markets between now and when you know 201 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:00,120 Speaker 1: you you want to get out. We had a lot 202 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 1: of clients saying that Joe I can't do two th 203 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 1: eight again, and that's exactly what we got to keep 204 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 1: in a COLLI thanks for the time. I greatly appreciate 205 00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:08,560 Speaker 1: your Quidlin with a lot going on in Europe this morning. Uh, 206 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 1: he is with us trust Mary Lynch and thematic strategy. Francine, 207 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: what's your key in sight this morning? What? What did 208 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:30,960 Speaker 1: he learned? Excuse me through the week? Well, you know 209 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 1: what we haven't talked about today and I learned today 210 00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:36,559 Speaker 1: because of this by election. You mentioned it briefly, tom 211 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:39,400 Speaker 1: So the UK Prime Minister Theresa May. Um you have 212 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 1: a lot of investors saying she won't last a year. 213 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:45,080 Speaker 1: That's what George Sorrows told me in Davos, because she's 214 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 1: pushing for this clean cut heart bregsit and then yesterday 215 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:53,040 Speaker 1: and today she demonstrated her dominance of the political landscape 216 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 1: by winning a by election. Now a by election is 217 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:59,800 Speaker 1: basically a small election in the middle of an election cycle. 218 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:05,280 Speaker 1: It's extremely rare Tom almost impossible for the government in 219 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:09,720 Speaker 1: place to win it, and she did just that. I'm 220 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:12,400 Speaker 1: glad you brought that up. Is this like a mid 221 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 1: what we call on mid term election? Yes, it's it's 222 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 1: not really a mid term, but when somebody steps down 223 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:21,000 Speaker 1: of a seat, then you have an election that could 224 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 1: be just one region or or one part of the UK. 225 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 1: But historically it's very rare that the party in charge 226 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 1: wins in very good. Let me bring in now someone 227 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:35,439 Speaker 1: who is really a joy to speak to, Terry mccauliffe. 228 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 1: He has been important for his Democratic Party on too 229 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 1: many fronts. It now has maybe the best job in 230 00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 1: political America. I could say this because within all the 231 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:52,000 Speaker 1: political turmoil Governor mccauliffe in Washington, and really in my 232 00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:56,319 Speaker 1: healing after the election turmoil, I'm reading everything on Jefferson 233 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:59,439 Speaker 1: i can. And so you get the bathe and all 234 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:04,600 Speaker 1: the legacy of Thomas Jefferson in Virginia, beginning with your 235 00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:08,080 Speaker 1: wonderful executive mansion in Richmond, Virginia, which goes back to 236 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 1: near eighteen twelve, the famous Alexander Paris House that you 237 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 1: that you have there your prison, and I'm gonna ask you, Terry, 238 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:22,000 Speaker 1: some tough, delicate questions. Did Mr Trump win the election 239 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 1: or did the Secretary State? Did Secretary Clinton lose the election? 240 00:13:26,960 --> 00:13:31,320 Speaker 1: Which is it? Listen, you gotta give President Trump people 241 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 1: on the election. I mean, uh, hindsight, I would make 242 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:40,600 Speaker 1: the argument that, uh, the our campaign should probably have 243 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 1: leaned it more on economics, job creation, talk about all 244 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:47,400 Speaker 1: the great things that had happened. But you know, listen, 245 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:49,480 Speaker 1: he's the president at the end of the day. He's 246 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:52,200 Speaker 1: sitting in the Oval Office right now, and uh, it 247 00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 1: just was a very unique time. And you know a 248 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 1: lot of surrounding circumstances with Comey's letter and all the 249 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:01,960 Speaker 1: Russia hats and all that. But you know, these are 250 00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:04,680 Speaker 1: the things that happened in presidential politics, and you know, 251 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:06,800 Speaker 1: you get a lot of things, a lot of surprises happen, 252 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:10,080 Speaker 1: and uh, he's sitting there and he was inaugurated, so 253 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:12,719 Speaker 1: you know he wasn't It's all I can say. The 254 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 1: fabric of your Virginia is one of the most diverse 255 00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:20,080 Speaker 1: states in the nation. Maybe Illinois, maybe Georgia. I'll let 256 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 1: you decide. You're the pro at this, I'm not, but 257 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:25,760 Speaker 1: you have a diversity in Virginia that I would suggest 258 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 1: is like nowhere else. What is the underlying support for 259 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:35,600 Speaker 1: President Trump right now from his core constituency witnesses speech today, 260 00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:40,640 Speaker 1: but particularly Terry at the marginal Republican level. Are those 261 00:14:40,680 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 1: people with them or are they stealable by you Democrats? 262 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:48,120 Speaker 1: Well he's in He's in a bad shape politically today 263 00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 1: in Virginia. Paul came out the other day. Um, I 264 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 1: think you know the Quinnipec Pole. He was underwater sixteen 265 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:58,520 Speaker 1: or eighteen points. We've never seen anything like it this fast. Um, 266 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:01,680 Speaker 1: so Pe, We're very concerned. We have a lot of issues. 267 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 1: I mean, he's done the federal hiring freeze. We are 268 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:07,640 Speaker 1: very concerned about what he's gonna do on Obamacare, a 269 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:10,920 Speaker 1: repeal without replacement town would cost US two hundred million 270 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:14,720 Speaker 1: dollars a year automatically and our budget. We're very concerned 271 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 1: about the travel ban. As you know, I went to 272 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 1: Dallas Airport. I think I was the first elected official 273 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:21,560 Speaker 1: out when I heard there was a family being detained 274 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:24,360 Speaker 1: there with two children with US passports without access to 275 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 1: legal counsel. Were very concerned about what is happening with 276 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 1: ICE officials today. We had an incident at a church 277 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:34,440 Speaker 1: the other day. It was a hypothermia center. Folks went 278 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 1: in there to get out of the coal. They came 279 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 1: out the next day and uh six seven ICE agents 280 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:43,520 Speaker 1: accosted him. I mean the first person they talked to, Francy. 281 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 1: And I'd make a joke here about Dallas Airport and 282 00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:49,200 Speaker 1: Governor mc caull if is gonna fix the world's worst airport. 283 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 1: But it's not funny. Unfortunately, there's so much seriousness, seriousness 284 00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 1: going on in this fancy time. If you could have 285 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 1: been there with me, I'm telling you, with these families, 286 00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:01,680 Speaker 1: it was heart wrenching. I mean families there six eight hours. 287 00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:04,400 Speaker 1: They got on a plane with legal documents and were 288 00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 1: detained when they landed. And how about yesterday reports of 289 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 1: coming off of domestic flights in America and having to 290 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 1: show your eye, Governor. Well, the institutions work. And actually, 291 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:16,960 Speaker 1: I I don't know about the airport, Tom, but I'm 292 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 1: a huge fan of Virginia because it reminds me of 293 00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 1: childhood memories going around Shinando, a National park with my family. Well, 294 00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:27,400 Speaker 1: the institutions in America work to try and fix some 295 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 1: of the problems you were just talking about. I believe. So. 296 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 1: In fact, we're here this weekend the National Governors Association, 297 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:37,120 Speaker 1: which I'm the chairman of. We have our largest crowd ever. 298 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 1: We have forty seven governors going to be here for 299 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:42,440 Speaker 1: four days. We're gonna meet several times with President Trump. 300 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 1: We're having lunch today with Vice President Pence. We're gonna 301 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:48,920 Speaker 1: meet with the congressional leaders on Monday. Listen, we have 302 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:51,720 Speaker 1: to work together. And the point we like Listen, that 303 00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 1: executive travel ban, executive order was hastily put together with 304 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:58,600 Speaker 1: no consultation with with the Congress or the courts. And 305 00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:01,200 Speaker 1: of course he paid a price for that. And you know, 306 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:04,200 Speaker 1: the border agents, custom agents did not have clear guidelines, 307 00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:06,879 Speaker 1: and it really was an embarrassment for our great nation, 308 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:10,639 Speaker 1: you know, the bastion of civil liberties democracy to have 309 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,080 Speaker 1: that go on. But the systems will work. But in 310 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:15,399 Speaker 1: my point as chairman, which I will say to the President, 311 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:17,879 Speaker 1: we have to work together. You know, two hundred and 312 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:20,679 Speaker 1: thirty years ago in New Yorktown, Virginia, we sent the 313 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 1: British back in the Battle of Yorktown. We got rid 314 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:25,399 Speaker 1: of the king. We're not bringing one back two d 315 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 1: thirty five years later, he's just joining us. Terry McCall 316 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:30,240 Speaker 1: if he is the governor of the state of Virginia, 317 00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 1: Friends and Laquad in London. I'm Tom Keane in New York, Governor. 318 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 1: When I look at immigration, I guess the feeling I have, 319 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:39,760 Speaker 1: and I think so many Americans have, as we understand 320 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:41,879 Speaker 1: on the cover of the New York Times today, the 321 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 1: Walter Journal, the F. T. Bloomberg whatever, that there seemed 322 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:48,240 Speaker 1: to be almost two white houses. How did the cabinet 323 00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:54,639 Speaker 1: officers get control of the procedural dialogue of this White House? 324 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:59,800 Speaker 1: How does Governor General Kelly, General Maddis, Mr Tillison, how 325 00:17:59,840 --> 00:18:03,640 Speaker 1: do they become dominant figures? Or is that just a fiction? Well, 326 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:07,200 Speaker 1: they better become dominant or else where. This country is 327 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 1: in for a very rough road. I'll be meeting with 328 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:11,959 Speaker 1: General Kelly. I sent him a letter in my concern 329 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:14,399 Speaker 1: about what had happened in Virginia. I'll be meeting with 330 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 1: General Kelly on Sunday with Ice officials to go through. 331 00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:19,479 Speaker 1: I mean, it's clear now we have a new standard 332 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 1: here in America that you can randomly stop anyone you 333 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 1: are without any due process. Any do cause that is 334 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,080 Speaker 1: a really that's a big shift in America that's never 335 00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:31,840 Speaker 1: happened before. But my fear as governor is this to me, 336 00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:34,439 Speaker 1: all comes back, the economy comes back to jobs. This 337 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:37,119 Speaker 1: could have a chilling effect on the economy. I have 338 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 1: already lost several site visits of companies from overseas who 339 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:44,400 Speaker 1: are coming to Virginia to build manufacturing facilities have now said, 340 00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:46,879 Speaker 1: you know, it's not the right time to come to America. 341 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:50,359 Speaker 1: We're scared to come to American And remember Tim and 342 00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:54,480 Speaker 1: franccene that of the world's customers live outside of America. 343 00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:57,960 Speaker 1: It is truly a global economy. We're doing great in Virginia, 344 00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:02,120 Speaker 1: thousand new absence i've been governor. Unemployment's gone from five 345 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:04,919 Speaker 1: four to four one. But we do that because I 346 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,119 Speaker 1: trade on a global basis. And when when you start 347 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:11,080 Speaker 1: doing these with a fear of raids and all these 348 00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 1: other issues, it is going to affect the U. S economy. Governor, 349 00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 1: how difficult is it for Democrats and for a democratic 350 00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 1: governor to push back against some of the Trump policies. 351 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:24,680 Speaker 1: Do you not need to convince because it's very easy 352 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:26,520 Speaker 1: for the President to turn around and say, well, you're 353 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 1: the opposition, of course you would say that, do you 354 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:32,199 Speaker 1: not need to convince people within his own party to 355 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 1: to maybe change and take a different tack. Well, and 356 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:37,800 Speaker 1: I think the most important that we can do as 357 00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:41,600 Speaker 1: governors is we have a very large bully pulpit. You know. Listen, 358 00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:43,520 Speaker 1: when I went out to Dallas Airport, I was on 359 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:46,639 Speaker 1: all the networks and they carried it live on Fox 360 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:49,959 Speaker 1: and CNN. That's what you can do is raise the issue. 361 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:53,600 Speaker 1: I have been very vocal on these ice detainer issues, 362 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:57,160 Speaker 1: and I think what we can do is raise awareness. 363 00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:59,879 Speaker 1: But right the federal government has the ability, you know, 364 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:01,719 Speaker 1: to do what they want to do on these federal 365 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:04,560 Speaker 1: issues as it relates to deportation and so forth. But 366 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:08,080 Speaker 1: we want to work. Listen, I listen, everybody, every governor 367 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,800 Speaker 1: wants the same thing. We want strong economy, we want jobs, 368 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:13,440 Speaker 1: we want a great healthcare and education system. That should 369 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,159 Speaker 1: be the same thing. I have known President Trump for 370 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 1: twenty years. I've had dinner with him, I've golfed with him. 371 00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:21,640 Speaker 1: He actually gave me twenty five dollars when I ran 372 00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:25,800 Speaker 1: for governor. I and I just, uh, he and I 373 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 1: should have the same goal about growing the economy. But 374 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,160 Speaker 1: I think he's had a very rough start. I think 375 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 1: he's got a lot of mistakes in the first thirty days. 376 00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,600 Speaker 1: Let's let's continue this discussion Terry mccauloff with his folks. 377 00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:40,440 Speaker 1: Of course, with his service to the Democrat Party. He's 378 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 1: somebody the Republicans have always respected in terms of just 379 00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 1: loyalty to the party. Will continue on the Democrats with 380 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:52,240 Speaker 1: this Governor mccauloff of Virginia, and it's always good to 381 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:54,960 Speaker 1: talk to him about the present politics. Terry. I want 382 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:59,600 Speaker 1: to go back to your exceptional competencies of running things 383 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 1: for the Democratic Party, and I can take it all 384 00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:06,000 Speaker 1: the way back to scenic Syracuse, New York and Bishop Laden. 385 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:12,840 Speaker 1: A few years ago, the Democrats got clobbered in Cayuga, Courtland, 386 00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:17,919 Speaker 1: Madison on a Daga, and Oswego County, the heart of 387 00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:21,879 Speaker 1: central New York. In Oswego County, Mr Trump took fifty 388 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:27,160 Speaker 1: of the vote. How does the next Democratic candidate, How 389 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 1: do the progressives of the Democratic Party get back to 390 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:36,480 Speaker 1: winning their fair share of those votes. It's a good question, 391 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:40,119 Speaker 1: tom uh. One thing I have argued with the Democrats 392 00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:43,520 Speaker 1: we need a stronger economic message. I mean, as I say, 393 00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:47,280 Speaker 1: look at Virginia today. We traditionally used to be a 394 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:51,240 Speaker 1: red state, purple state, uh in elections. We've now moved 395 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,440 Speaker 1: to a blue state in presidential elections because like when 396 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:57,560 Speaker 1: I ran for governor, I ran in a strong economic message. 397 00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:01,040 Speaker 1: My focus is going to be jobs, jobs, job diversifying. 398 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:04,040 Speaker 1: The academy. We're leading the country today on cybersecurity and 399 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:08,280 Speaker 1: new bioscience is human genome sequencing. Democrats have to lay 400 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:10,480 Speaker 1: out a plan. What is it you're going to do 401 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:13,280 Speaker 1: for me? And you know President Trump during the campaign, 402 00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:15,840 Speaker 1: you know, he had his slogans and he has things, 403 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,439 Speaker 1: and it resonated with a lot of folks. You know, 404 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:20,879 Speaker 1: the end of the day, the ills of our economy 405 00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 1: cannot be put on trade. But you know it's easy 406 00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 1: to blame, let's say, in Mexico or China. I always 407 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:29,359 Speaker 1: say on trade, tim you give me a fair trade deal, 408 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 1: protect work of rights, environmental Right. I can beat anybody 409 00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:36,080 Speaker 1: in the globe. I can sell our products anywhere, give 410 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 1: me a fair deal. But this idea that we're gonna 411 00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,679 Speaker 1: put walls up around our country and isolated. We cannot 412 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:44,200 Speaker 1: grow by just selling to ourselves. We have to take part, 413 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:47,960 Speaker 1: as I say, in the world's customers outside America, you 414 00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:50,640 Speaker 1: gotta go with those customers. So the Democratic Party message, 415 00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:53,479 Speaker 1: I mean, I consider myself a very fiscally conservative, pro 416 00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 1: business Democrat. I'm socially very progressive. I just vetoed two 417 00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:01,720 Speaker 1: days ago HB two. You know, a defund planned parenthood 418 00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:05,280 Speaker 1: bill in Virginia. They constantly are sending me bills anti women, 419 00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:09,320 Speaker 1: anti LGBP. My argument and all this is leave people alone, 420 00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:13,120 Speaker 1: focus on the economy, give the children a quality education, 421 00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 1: let the transportation system work, and people are gonna be happy. 422 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:18,679 Speaker 1: And and today I have very high approval ratings because 423 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:22,560 Speaker 1: it's all about economics, It's all about jobs. And I 424 00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:24,680 Speaker 1: think the Democrats have gotten their eye off the ball. 425 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,919 Speaker 1: I mean, how Tom did we lose Michigan when Barack 426 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 1: Obama saved the auto industry. And that's the heart of 427 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:34,639 Speaker 1: the matter for instance. Right, But Governor, you say that 428 00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,360 Speaker 1: Democrats need a plan, they also need a leader. Who 429 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:40,360 Speaker 1: is your party going to rally? You know, I don't 430 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:42,399 Speaker 1: know if it's gonna be one person. I mean, we 431 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:44,280 Speaker 1: have a d NC election. But you know, I served 432 00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:46,680 Speaker 1: as the chairman of the party. You're not the leader 433 00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:48,800 Speaker 1: of the party. In that sense, you run the mechanics, 434 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:50,720 Speaker 1: the guts of the party, you put the primaries on 435 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 1: it to do all that. I think it's gonna be 436 00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,080 Speaker 1: a chorus of individuals. I mean, when you have the president, 437 00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 1: obviously he's the leader of the party, I think most 438 00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 1: of the leadership is going to come out of the 439 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:04,919 Speaker 1: Governor's got to remember every day I worry about economic development, jobs. 440 00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,480 Speaker 1: I have to have a quality education system. I can't 441 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:10,400 Speaker 1: bring businesses to Virginia. I gotta be able to move 442 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:12,920 Speaker 1: people to northern Virginia. Let me, let me interrupt you. 443 00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:18,240 Speaker 1: This is so important for Francine Laqua. Governor mccauliffe held 444 00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 1: spellbound all of Paris at the climate talks. Okay, am 445 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:26,080 Speaker 1: I right to Devanka. Trump had to basically go into 446 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:29,280 Speaker 1: the Oval office yesterday and say, Dad, don't scool around 447 00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:33,240 Speaker 1: with climate change. How are you going to shift the 448 00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:37,240 Speaker 1: dialogue on some of these issues. Well, I think in fairness, 449 00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:40,320 Speaker 1: you know, he's only thirty days. In fair but he 450 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 1: has got some big issues. I think they've learned how 451 00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:46,679 Speaker 1: tough this is. First of all, they talked about repealing Obamacare. 452 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 1: I'm gonna do a day when when I get elected, Well, 453 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:51,879 Speaker 1: guess what Speaker Better said yesterday. The Republicans aren't going 454 00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 1: to do it. This is not easy to throw eighteen 455 00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:57,760 Speaker 1: million people on the street and take their healthcare away 456 00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,920 Speaker 1: from This is a very complex It's not a political 457 00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:06,639 Speaker 1: sound bite. The president listen to me, that's no. But 458 00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:10,440 Speaker 1: come on, seriously, great, come on, Terry francaying, you don't 459 00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 1: know this. The cover Francy's question is brilliant the cover 460 00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:16,840 Speaker 1: of the New York Times today, Governor mcauloff, I have 461 00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:21,680 Speaker 1: never seen there are not one, two, three parallel paths 462 00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:25,480 Speaker 1: within the White House. Who is President Trump going to 463 00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,280 Speaker 1: listen to? He better listen to the people. Here's what 464 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:30,879 Speaker 1: I would say. He better listen to people who have 465 00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:35,119 Speaker 1: had the experience and expertise in the areas that they 466 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,720 Speaker 1: are in charge of. And I hope he listens to 467 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:41,399 Speaker 1: General Maddis. I hope he listens to General Kelly, because 468 00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:45,160 Speaker 1: these folks are experts. They know what's going on. I mean, listen. 469 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:46,560 Speaker 1: I have a son in the Air and Forces. I 470 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:48,959 Speaker 1: have a son who's a United States Marine. I'm very 471 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,080 Speaker 1: proud of it. I want to make sure that when 472 00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:54,520 Speaker 1: these military decisions are made, that we are protecting our 473 00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:58,159 Speaker 1: young men and women uniform. And we are doing this deliberately. Governor. 474 00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:00,840 Speaker 1: We didn't get to the lousy commutant Virginia, which is 475 00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:04,520 Speaker 1: eighth worths in the nation, sandwich between Illinois and Georgia. 476 00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:08,600 Speaker 1: Francy and I need to come to Washington, go to Williamsburg. 477 00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,960 Speaker 1: Show Francine, how British America did things right in your 478 00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:17,800 Speaker 1: Virginia before we threw the mother country across the Atlantic Ocean. 479 00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:20,120 Speaker 1: We need we need to come down there and meet 480 00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:22,720 Speaker 1: with you again. Terry McCullough, thank you so much. He 481 00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,680 Speaker 1: is a governor of Virginia. Francy. You see how I 482 00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,920 Speaker 1: did that. We can do the show from Yorktown. It's 483 00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:30,760 Speaker 1: a road trip. It's not a show. It's a road trip. 484 00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 1: It's a road trip to Yorktown. We can see where 485 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:45,240 Speaker 1: corn Wallace said goodbye. Brought you by Bank of America, 486 00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:49,520 Speaker 1: Mary Lynch. Dedicated to bringing our clients insights and solutions 487 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:53,119 Speaker 1: to meet the challenges of a transforming world. That's the 488 00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:58,320 Speaker 1: power of global connections. Mary Lynch, Pierce Federan Smith Incorporated, 489 00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:05,320 Speaker 1: Member s I P See and now, Frankly, the most 490 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 1: important interview of the day, George Friedman is fiery with 491 00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:13,560 Speaker 1: an encyclopedic knowledge of military and defense. UH, and has 492 00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:17,240 Speaker 1: always interesting George. We could speak literally for five hours 493 00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:20,399 Speaker 1: straight today. There's so much to talk about. He is 494 00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:24,320 Speaker 1: with geopolitical futures, George. I um looked at the cover 495 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:26,399 Speaker 1: of the New York Times today, the cover of the 496 00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,720 Speaker 1: f T, the cover of Bloomberg's work. I've never seen 497 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:34,200 Speaker 1: anything like this on issue after issue after issue. There 498 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:38,399 Speaker 1: are two streams of thought coming out of the Trump 499 00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:43,480 Speaker 1: White House. Let's just begin with generals in Mexico. Tell 500 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:47,720 Speaker 1: me what we do when we project General Maddis and 501 00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,800 Speaker 1: General Kelly in the cabinet. But I believe they have 502 00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:56,680 Speaker 1: no power. How do they get a voice within the administration? Well, 503 00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:59,800 Speaker 1: very frankly, we have a rule and everything a no 504 00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:03,720 Speaker 1: attention what any political leader says. You wouldn't buy a 505 00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:07,159 Speaker 1: stock based on what the CEO said yesterday. Watch what 506 00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:11,520 Speaker 1: they've actually done. The actual actions of the administration have 507 00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:15,879 Speaker 1: been much more conservative. UH. And that's what's important. So 508 00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:19,399 Speaker 1: when we ask who has the influence, we assume we 509 00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:23,080 Speaker 1: know what Trump is thinking, We assume we know what 510 00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:26,639 Speaker 1: the power structure is inside the White House. The fact is, 511 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,639 Speaker 1: just look at what they're doing. They're doing what they 512 00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:33,160 Speaker 1: said they were doing in a very modern and limited way. Okay, 513 00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:35,640 Speaker 1: and then the next treatment and fancy and this guess 514 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:38,920 Speaker 1: that's going on a half hour with Mr Freeman. The 515 00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:43,080 Speaker 1: photo yesterday that stopped all of America deadnets tracks whatever 516 00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:47,000 Speaker 1: anybody believes was a domestic flight. I believe out of 517 00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:52,600 Speaker 1: s f oh of I c E. Customs, immigration types, 518 00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:58,520 Speaker 1: checking passports. That's almost a quasi military group. Is that 519 00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:03,440 Speaker 1: a military operation? Actually, it's the rule of law. Congress 520 00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 1: passed law on immigration back in the Clinton administration. Clinton 521 00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:14,520 Speaker 1: agreed to it. Um it was never enforced properly. So 522 00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:16,920 Speaker 1: one of the questions is do we have laws and 523 00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:20,640 Speaker 1: immigration where don't we It's not that I'm a supporter 524 00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:24,680 Speaker 1: of Trump and many things, but in this particular case, uh, 525 00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:30,920 Speaker 1: he's putting clean up for Obama, Bush and Clinton who 526 00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:34,040 Speaker 1: never really enforced And in fancy, I wain'ted to jump 527 00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,360 Speaker 1: in here with Mr Freedman, but Francy, let me make 528 00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:41,880 Speaker 1: clear that a large body of Americans agree and here's 529 00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:45,320 Speaker 1: the key word with some of the president on immigration. 530 00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:49,680 Speaker 1: I mean, he's got huge support on some of these 531 00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:53,600 Speaker 1: immigration actions, right. But Georgie how do you see this unfolding? 532 00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:57,640 Speaker 1: You have he the president has some support, he has 533 00:29:57,680 --> 00:29:59,719 Speaker 1: a lot of support, and he has a lot of dissent. 534 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:04,080 Speaker 1: Who are the institutions that will decide what comes next? 535 00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,400 Speaker 1: I keep on being told the president, even if he's 536 00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:08,960 Speaker 1: the president of the United States, can't do what he 537 00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:13,480 Speaker 1: wants all the time. Well, this is law. What he 538 00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:18,800 Speaker 1: is doing in dealing with illegal immigration is a law 539 00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:23,160 Speaker 1: that's been in place and he's enforcing it. Now, what 540 00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:26,000 Speaker 1: is going on here is an argument by those who 541 00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:29,480 Speaker 1: would like to change the law and allow legal immigrants 542 00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:31,240 Speaker 1: to romain United States, and then maybe a very good 543 00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:34,600 Speaker 1: idea that we're going to do that regardless of what 544 00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:38,320 Speaker 1: the law says. So in terms of the law, it's 545 00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:41,680 Speaker 1: all on his side. In terms of the politics, um, 546 00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:44,280 Speaker 1: you know, there's a large number of people in the 547 00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:48,960 Speaker 1: United States who feel that first they're uncomfortable with immigration, 548 00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:52,560 Speaker 1: but more important, they're very uncomfortable with the idea that 549 00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:56,080 Speaker 1: a president consusably ignore the law. So I think in 550 00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,000 Speaker 1: the long run he's going to be a pretty strong shape. 551 00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:00,160 Speaker 1: All right, But Georgia, okay, and I understand, I mean, 552 00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:01,840 Speaker 1: we have Look, I live in London, we have very 553 00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:03,640 Speaker 1: bizarre laws. I mean, there's one law saying that you 554 00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:05,960 Speaker 1: can't be drunken a pub, So of course it's law. 555 00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:09,840 Speaker 1: I understand that. I get that the law has not 556 00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:14,640 Speaker 1: been enforced in certain cases because illegal immigrants add a 557 00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:19,960 Speaker 1: lot to certain industries. I'm thinking of the farming industry. Right. Well, yeah, 558 00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:24,760 Speaker 1: you can't. This is not a bizarre law. The United 559 00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:28,880 Speaker 1: States has had a law on immigrations. Uh. It has 560 00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:32,160 Speaker 1: always been enforced. So if what we're going to say is, look, 561 00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:37,120 Speaker 1: we're not going to enforce laws that cause economic disruption, 562 00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:40,360 Speaker 1: we've got a problem. Instead, what we do is go 563 00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:44,440 Speaker 1: to Congress and have them changed the law. Congress doesn't 564 00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:47,720 Speaker 1: want to change the law. Uh. And now we're a 565 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:50,760 Speaker 1: poll that somebody who's gonna enforce it. So the question 566 00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:52,760 Speaker 1: is a political one, not a moral one. That's right 567 00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:56,600 Speaker 1: or wrong in the end. Uh, he's going to get 568 00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,320 Speaker 1: a lot of support on this. Right now, it's being 569 00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:02,239 Speaker 1: presented as if it is an arbitrary action by him. 570 00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:06,120 Speaker 1: The media has been all over him. But the fact 571 00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:08,680 Speaker 1: of the matter is that all he's doing is enforcing 572 00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:11,280 Speaker 1: a law that's been on the books. Fears your expertise 573 00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:14,720 Speaker 1: with a pentagon and with the military does does And 574 00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:17,960 Speaker 1: I understand the I do not speak as of amateur folks. 575 00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:22,680 Speaker 1: The difference between military and police force in seven other shades. 576 00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:26,840 Speaker 1: Mr Freedman, you know better than us. Does the military 577 00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:29,840 Speaker 1: want to be involved with this? Is this something they 578 00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:32,560 Speaker 1: just say, you know, we don't want to do this battle? 579 00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:37,360 Speaker 1: How does the Pentagon feel about the militarization of our 580 00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:41,960 Speaker 1: immigration effort? Well, you know that's a media statement. The 581 00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:45,560 Speaker 1: little military cannot be involved in law enforce in the 582 00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:50,720 Speaker 1: United States under that called that was signed in eighteen seventies. 583 00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:54,480 Speaker 1: So there is no option of taking the U. S 584 00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:57,680 Speaker 1: Military and turning the police force unless you got to 585 00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:01,200 Speaker 1: break the law. The second thing is is that if 586 00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:03,280 Speaker 1: you were going to decide that you aren't going to 587 00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:07,040 Speaker 1: take care of this problem, you're gonna writ people checking. 588 00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:11,880 Speaker 1: If you want to call that the militarization, you know, great, Um, 589 00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:16,560 Speaker 1: what he's doing is probably not quite right from a 590 00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:20,000 Speaker 1: practical point of view, he's moving fast, but from a 591 00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:22,800 Speaker 1: legal and a political point of view, it's not molitorization. Okay, 592 00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:26,400 Speaker 1: So Georgia, what's been happening so far have previous administrations 593 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:29,520 Speaker 1: turned a blind eye on illegal immigration? Is that how 594 00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,920 Speaker 1: you would describe it. They have not completely turned to 595 00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:38,040 Speaker 1: briand Ie. Obama expelled two million, five dred thousand illegal immigrants, 596 00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:40,720 Speaker 1: but they did not make it a priority of enforcement. 597 00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:44,560 Speaker 1: To some extent, the president has the right to decide 598 00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:48,280 Speaker 1: what the priorities of enforcement are, so long as within 599 00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:52,760 Speaker 1: the framework of the law, and previous presidents decided politically, 600 00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:55,760 Speaker 1: even if it was law, they weren't going to do it. Interestingly, 601 00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 1: the most aggressive one enforcing it was Obama Georgia. A 602 00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,920 Speaker 1: few more questions, if we could on the present tense 603 00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:08,160 Speaker 1: of Washington, d C. What is the actual relationship of 604 00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:12,640 Speaker 1: the Secretary of Defense, General Maddis and the Pentagon. Well, 605 00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:16,240 Speaker 1: to me, it's a mystery how the Secretary of Defense 606 00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:21,239 Speaker 1: dovetails with the Pentagon. How do they do that? Well? 607 00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:26,680 Speaker 1: The Secretary defends legally, Uh, These joint chiefs of Staff 608 00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:31,040 Speaker 1: are answerable to him. He effectively overseas and runs them. 609 00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:36,800 Speaker 1: This particular Uh, this particular Secretary Offense is extremely knowledgeable 610 00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:38,880 Speaker 1: about it. And one of the things he's come in 611 00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:43,440 Speaker 1: with is arguing that the military has become enormously inefficient, 612 00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:47,800 Speaker 1: spending large amounts of money on things that take years 613 00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:51,520 Speaker 1: to field. One of them was a armored vehicle that 614 00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:55,200 Speaker 1: was badly interacted to five years to get into the field, 615 00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:58,759 Speaker 1: and he intends to make it more efficient by making it, 616 00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:03,240 Speaker 1: among other things, a much smaller bureaucracy in the Pentagon 617 00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:07,680 Speaker 1: and many more troops in the field. George talked to 618 00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:09,800 Speaker 1: me a little bit about the Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. 619 00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:13,560 Speaker 1: So I've been reading a lot of US news political 620 00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:16,360 Speaker 1: the Washington Post, both describing how the former exce on 621 00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:18,759 Speaker 1: Mobile CEO had been cut out of the loop on 622 00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,960 Speaker 1: some shifts in terms of foreign policy and slapt down 623 00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:24,719 Speaker 1: by the White House on personnel choices. What does that 624 00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:28,440 Speaker 1: mean on how President Trump will deal with his cabinet. Well, 625 00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:33,880 Speaker 1: first as assumes that this is true, very good. Yeah. Secondly, 626 00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:37,680 Speaker 1: it assumes it forgets that he came into the cabinet latest, 627 00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:40,839 Speaker 1: so he's not really up to date, so that when 628 00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:45,320 Speaker 1: he went to Europe he basically said, I'm here to 629 00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:49,560 Speaker 1: listen and not to act. He's never had a government job, 630 00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:54,200 Speaker 1: he has never really done this before, and he knows it, 631 00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:57,440 Speaker 1: and I think he's being very careful. You can interpret 632 00:35:57,480 --> 00:35:59,040 Speaker 1: the fact that things have to be done and he's 633 00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:00,960 Speaker 1: not ready to do them cutting him out of the loop, 634 00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:03,120 Speaker 1: or you can simply say they're going to give him 635 00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:06,600 Speaker 1: a couple of months to find a seat. Uh. But 636 00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:10,680 Speaker 1: also remember one thing. In Washington or in London, lots 637 00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:13,440 Speaker 1: of people get cut out of the loop on decisions. 638 00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:16,120 Speaker 1: The simple fact that you hold a job with a 639 00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:19,480 Speaker 1: certain title doesn't mean that you're prime minister or our 640 00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:22,719 Speaker 1: president is going to consult you on everything. That's just 641 00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:27,440 Speaker 1: the standard way government's run, stand away companies run. Right, 642 00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:29,960 Speaker 1: But he is he arguably the most important appointment for 643 00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:35,279 Speaker 1: the Trump administration. He is one appointment. He runs the 644 00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:39,960 Speaker 1: State Department. Uh, the appointment of Defense Department is equally 645 00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:43,360 Speaker 1: important to National Security Advisor, the head of the c 646 00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:46,480 Speaker 1: i A. Unfortunately, and I think this is a problem. 647 00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:51,080 Speaker 1: The complexity of American decision making in foreign policy means 648 00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:53,239 Speaker 1: that there is no one person and point to who 649 00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:57,520 Speaker 1: is the most important. He is one of many. Well, 650 00:36:57,920 --> 00:36:59,640 Speaker 1: this is a very good point, and that the president 651 00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:01,759 Speaker 1: speak you this morning. We'll have that for your folks 652 00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:04,200 Speaker 1: in seven minutes of seapack, and then we go on 653 00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:09,279 Speaker 1: to his congressional efforts next week. Everyone can agree this 654 00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:13,560 Speaker 1: is a president that likes simplicity. He likes simplistic statements, 655 00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:17,480 Speaker 1: simplistic theory, simplistic plans. I'm not trying to make a 656 00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:20,840 Speaker 1: judgment your folks. I'm just stating the fact you've just stated, 657 00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:26,120 Speaker 1: our foreign policy and defense projection is highly complex. How 658 00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:29,960 Speaker 1: is the industry, George Friedman that you're in going to 659 00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:34,960 Speaker 1: deliver a simple message to the president. Well, first we 660 00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:37,480 Speaker 1: have to have a simple message to deliver, and there 661 00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:41,719 Speaker 1: is no simple message, partly because this really is complicated 662 00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:44,520 Speaker 1: and can be boiled down to just a simple message. 663 00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:48,560 Speaker 1: Partly because the industry loves to complicate it. Yeah. The 664 00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:51,120 Speaker 1: more complicated the issue is, the more they own it, 665 00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:55,480 Speaker 1: more you need. Yeah. So, I mean the problem that 666 00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:58,520 Speaker 1: we had here is that we have reached the point 667 00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:01,200 Speaker 1: is everybody points out we have six in intelligence agencies 668 00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:05,480 Speaker 1: that's built to fail in his simplistic way, and the 669 00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:09,439 Speaker 1: president puts things in simplistic ways. Uh. You know, he's 670 00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:13,040 Speaker 1: pointed this out. You know, he's pointed out that the 671 00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:17,560 Speaker 1: decision making structure of our foreign policy can't generate strategy, 672 00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:21,480 Speaker 1: doesn't listen to the president when strategy is made, and 673 00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:25,160 Speaker 1: so on. This has been an old discussion. Now he's 674 00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:29,440 Speaker 1: going to take a shot my expectations, hopfil I mean 675 00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:32,920 Speaker 1: this is this is built into our firm policy from 676 00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:35,520 Speaker 1: from where you set And I say this, folks, with 677 00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:38,879 Speaker 1: Mr Bannon's comments yesterday, and who knows what we'll see 678 00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:42,440 Speaker 1: as we staggered a Monday, A grizzled guy like you 679 00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:45,359 Speaker 1: in the middle. I love this frenzy and I love 680 00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:50,880 Speaker 1: saying this. George Freeman is part of the military industrial complex. 681 00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:56,200 Speaker 1: Thank you think I didn't know we were meeting, but 682 00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:58,800 Speaker 1: as part of a phrase from another time in place 683 00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:02,319 Speaker 1: and you know military movies from the other at the time. 684 00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:06,400 Speaker 1: What does your industry do with Mr Bannon? Do you do? 685 00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:09,360 Speaker 1: You do you just wait him out? Or is General 686 00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:12,920 Speaker 1: Madison others going to do something? What? What's the Here's 687 00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:17,480 Speaker 1: what I say. Every administration has an ideologue in his 688 00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:22,279 Speaker 1: foreign policy structure. Um the Obama administration was filled with them. 689 00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:26,440 Speaker 1: What you're doing is one your answerable to the president 690 00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,960 Speaker 1: and you have to carry out the policy. Secondly, the 691 00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:33,920 Speaker 1: idea logue mostly make speeches. He's in charge of whipping 692 00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:36,480 Speaker 1: up the base and saying all the things are going 693 00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:40,920 Speaker 1: to happen to Usually abandon has no effect. He doesn't 694 00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:44,360 Speaker 1: really get down into the meetings where things really happen. 695 00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:47,600 Speaker 1: But I don't know if any administration that hasn't had 696 00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:51,680 Speaker 1: abandon Now this Bannon is particularly disliked by foreign policy 697 00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:55,160 Speaker 1: establishment compared to some of the others that have been there. 698 00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:58,760 Speaker 1: But still it has to have some sort of ideological 699 00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:03,200 Speaker 1: statement for the public. And you do have to remember, 700 00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:08,080 Speaker 1: as he was elected, so he is the president. So 701 00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:12,279 Speaker 1: can you say with any certainty that the u S 702 00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:15,120 Speaker 1: foreign policy at the moment is America first? Is that 703 00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:19,000 Speaker 1: foreign policy? Well, it's supposed to be because the president 704 00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:23,759 Speaker 1: is charged with making certain by the Constitution of the 705 00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:29,320 Speaker 1: American safety, that's his job. I think bold presidents do that. 706 00:40:30,200 --> 00:40:33,640 Speaker 1: But remember we've been to war for fifteen years. It 707 00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:39,360 Speaker 1: hasn't worked. Our relationship to Mexico hasn't evolved. So Mexico 708 00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:42,200 Speaker 1: when we signed MAFTA was I think they si largest 709 00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:45,440 Speaker 1: economy in the world. It is now eleventh largest economy 710 00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:48,880 Speaker 1: in the world. There's a different dynamic going on. So 711 00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:52,120 Speaker 1: one of the problems I wish Trump would be able 712 00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:55,480 Speaker 1: to enunciate is, Look, we are playing by a playbook 713 00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:58,920 Speaker 1: that's ten twenty years old. It needs to be updated. 714 00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:05,040 Speaker 1: Europe certainly isn't what it was in in terms of organization, structure, 715 00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:09,200 Speaker 1: solidity and so on. We can't continue a foreign policy 716 00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:14,040 Speaker 1: that assumes that nothing has changed, and the foreign policy 717 00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:17,880 Speaker 1: establishment likes to do that. So the answer is that 718 00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:22,440 Speaker 1: he was elected to transform the system. I don't know 719 00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:24,640 Speaker 1: if he can do that, but part of that is 720 00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:28,560 Speaker 1: he's very offensive to a lot of people, so to 721 00:41:28,680 --> 00:41:30,880 Speaker 1: understand and the back law, all the things that are 722 00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:33,480 Speaker 1: saying what he'd done so far in foreign policy not 723 00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:36,120 Speaker 1: a whole lot. We need to talk more often. George Freedman, 724 00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:38,080 Speaker 1: Thank you so much. We've got a huge response to 725 00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:41,440 Speaker 1: Mr Freeman is not so much giving his opinion, but 726 00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:45,400 Speaker 1: just stating in fact, like this is the law, and 727 00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:48,560 Speaker 1: in this case, the president is finally affecting the law. 728 00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:52,280 Speaker 1: As you heard, it's been around since President Clinton. Somehow, 729 00:41:52,280 --> 00:41:55,040 Speaker 1: I would suggest this debate will continue. Frenzy like, thank 730 00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:57,759 Speaker 1: you so much. We heard from David Gura. I can't 731 00:41:57,800 --> 00:41:59,920 Speaker 1: even pronounce the name. He's in some city and tear 732 00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:04,000 Speaker 1: de Fuego at the tip of South America, y Shiya 733 00:42:04,200 --> 00:42:07,359 Speaker 1: or something, on his way back from Antarctica with his kids. 734 00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:10,960 Speaker 1: So maybe we'll see David Gura on Monday. What a 735 00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:13,800 Speaker 1: week it spend. Thank you so much for your attention 736 00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:18,759 Speaker 1: to us on radio, on television worldwide. This is Bloomberg. 737 00:42:26,200 --> 00:42:30,400 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Subscribe and 738 00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:35,680 Speaker 1: listen to interviews on iTunes, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform 739 00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:39,319 Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm out on Twitter at Tom Keene. David 740 00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:43,040 Speaker 1: Gura is at David Gura. Before the podcast, you can 741 00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:59,399 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio, brought you by 742 00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:03,320 Speaker 1: Bank of America Mary Lynch. Dedicated to bringing our clients 743 00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:07,600 Speaker 1: insights and solutions to meet the challenges of a transforming world. 744 00:43:08,120 --> 00:43:11,840 Speaker 1: That's the power of global connections. Mary Lynch, Pierce, Fenner 745 00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:15,400 Speaker 1: and Smith Incorporated Member s I p C.