WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: February 14, 2022 - Hour 2 (Radio) 0:00:01.880 --> 0:00:05.080 Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Workers studios. Is It's Bloomberg 0:00:05.160 --> 0:00:09.320 Daybreak for Monday, February fourteenth two. Coming up this hour, 0:00:09.560 --> 0:00:13.920 stock slide as geopolitical risks over Ukraine ripple through global markets. 0:00:14.040 --> 0:00:16.120 We take you to Europe and Asia for the latest 0:00:16.160 --> 0:00:18.640 market moves. The Fed takes a measured tone, with one 0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:21.200 official saying great heights should be dated dependent and the 0:00:21.280 --> 0:00:24.040 latest reasons why white paller workers do not want to 0:00:24.040 --> 0:00:27.160 return to the office full time. New York subway ridership 0:00:27.200 --> 0:00:29.960 is rebounding after a drop from Omicron. Plus the Bible 0:00:30.040 --> 0:00:33.519 crossing between the US and Canada has reopened. I'm Michael 0:00:33.520 --> 0:00:37.080 bark More Ahead, I'm John Stasharon. Sports super Bowl fifty 0:00:37.159 --> 0:00:39.200 six in l A. The Rams with a fourth quarter 0:00:39.280 --> 0:00:45.440 touchdown drive they beat the Bengals. That's all straight ahead 0:00:45.520 --> 0:00:49.240 on Bloomberg day Break on Bloomberg Element Tree on New York, 0:00:49.400 --> 0:00:54.120 Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, 0:00:54.280 --> 0:00:58.800 Bloomberg nine sixties, San Francisco, Sirius x M one nineteen 0:00:59.160 --> 0:01:01.880 and around the world. Old on Bloomberg Radio dot Com 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:08.880 and via the Bloomberg Business Set. And Good Morning I'm 0:01:08.959 --> 0:01:12.000 Karen Moscow. I'm Nathan Haygar. Bloomberg Daybreak brought to you 0:01:12.040 --> 0:01:15.160 by Interactive Brokers Global Analysts that helps you find new 0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:19.600 global investment opportunities. To diversify your portfolio and discover undervalued 0:01:19.640 --> 0:01:22.720 companies that may have greater growth potential. Try IBK our 0:01:22.760 --> 0:01:25.920 Global Analysts today at ib k R dot com, slash 0:01:26.000 --> 0:01:29.280 g A and global stocks are tumbling this morning six 0:01:29.280 --> 0:01:31.160 o one on Wall Street. We checked the markets every 0:01:31.160 --> 0:01:33.720 fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg. S and 0:01:33.760 --> 0:01:37.560 P futures down now features down two hundred thirty eight 0:01:37.560 --> 0:01:40.800 and nasday futures down one forty six. And attend your 0:01:40.800 --> 0:01:44.160 treasury up five thirty seconds. The yield one nine per cent. 0:01:44.280 --> 0:01:46.959 Nathan Well, Karen. These dramatic moves in markets come as 0:01:46.959 --> 0:01:50.600 tensions built between Russia and Ukraine. Moscow's military build up 0:01:50.600 --> 0:01:53.200 near the border means this could be a decisive week 0:01:53.240 --> 0:01:55.720 in the conflict. Amy Morris has the latest from our 0:01:55.760 --> 0:01:59.920 Bloomberg newsroom in Washington. Vladimir Putin says the US has 0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:02.520 failed to meet his demands. The U s warrens and 0:02:02.600 --> 0:02:06.760 invasion is imminent. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told CBS 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:09.320 has faced the nation. There's a possibility there will be 0:02:09.360 --> 0:02:12.480 a major military action very soon. They could launch a 0:02:12.520 --> 0:02:16.280 military action essentially at any time. They could do so 0:02:16.360 --> 0:02:20.200 this coming week, but of course it still awaits the 0:02:20.280 --> 0:02:23.560 gull order. Sullivan says Putin could move before the Winter 0:02:23.639 --> 0:02:27.800 Olympics and February. President Biden spoke with Putin for a 0:02:27.800 --> 0:02:30.720 little more than an hour on Saturday, with no real progress. 0:02:30.960 --> 0:02:35.600 Russia repeatedly denies any intention of invading Ukraine. In Washington, 0:02:35.680 --> 0:02:38.920 I maymy Morris Bloomberg Daybreak, Amy, thank your reaction pouring 0:02:38.960 --> 0:02:42.400 into the potential conflict over Ukraine. Harry L. Cooper, a 0:02:42.520 --> 0:02:45.960 senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, says an invasion looks imminent. 0:02:46.320 --> 0:02:49.200 We do not give puting what he wants. I think 0:02:49.200 --> 0:02:53.320 he will invade Ukraine. He hasn't excused his demands are 0:02:53.720 --> 0:02:57.720 impossible to fulfill, such as rolling back native to the 0:02:57.800 --> 0:03:03.720 lines of and I think he deliberately demanded such harsh 0:03:03.800 --> 0:03:08.160 demands in order to have their pretext the castle's belly 0:03:08.280 --> 0:03:11.160 to invade U create. That is Ariel Cohen with the 0:03:11.200 --> 0:03:14.240 Atlantic Council, who says Russia has denied plans to attack. 0:03:14.520 --> 0:03:17.160 The White House is threatening sweeping sanctions in response to 0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:20.400 any incursion. Well the tensions over Ukraine, Karen have stocked 0:03:20.400 --> 0:03:23.960 selling off this morning. Overnight equities in Asia slid for 0:03:24.000 --> 0:03:27.280 a second session. Let's get the recap from Bloomberg's Juliette 0:03:27.280 --> 0:03:30.160 Sally in Singapore. Good morning, Juliette, Good morning, Nathan and Karen. 0:03:30.200 --> 0:03:32.760 The m c I Asia Pacific Index fell over one percent. 0:03:32.960 --> 0:03:35.920 Japanese stocks among the worst performers as they played catch 0:03:36.000 --> 0:03:38.400 up following a three day weekend. Then a KTU to 0:03:38.560 --> 0:03:41.240 five was down by two point three in Tokyo Johanna 0:03:41.280 --> 0:03:43.160 c s I three hundred, and the equity market in 0:03:43.200 --> 0:03:46.520 Hong Kong, which is also facing a COVID outbreak, traded 0:03:46.600 --> 0:03:49.160 in the red. Energy stocks so but the trend across 0:03:49.160 --> 0:03:51.840 the region climbing as oil added to an eight week 0:03:51.920 --> 0:03:54.400 winning run, and the Bank of Japan intervened in the 0:03:54.440 --> 0:03:56.640 bond market to put a cap on ten year yields, 0:03:56.640 --> 0:03:59.320 which had risen to a six year high, by offering 0:03:59.360 --> 0:04:02.280 to buy an un limited amount of five to ten 0:04:02.360 --> 0:04:06.280 year in Singapore. Juliette Sally, Bloomberg Daybreak, Juliette, thank you, 0:04:06.320 --> 0:04:09.280 stocks in Europe this morning are under even more pressure. 0:04:09.320 --> 0:04:11.000 We go to Live to London and get the latest 0:04:11.000 --> 0:04:14.200 of the Bloomberg's Max Ramsey, Good morning, Max, Good morning 0:04:14.280 --> 0:04:17.320 Karen and Nathan. Yes, we're seeing real reverberations across the 0:04:17.320 --> 0:04:20.920 European assets amid this tense geopolitical situation. The mood in 0:04:20.960 --> 0:04:23.880 Europe very much risk off. We fall two point six 0:04:23.880 --> 0:04:26.279 percent on these stock six hundred foot see one hundred 0:04:26.320 --> 0:04:28.760 here in the UK, the best performer among the major 0:04:28.800 --> 0:04:31.800 European industries, but still down one point nine percent. The 0:04:31.880 --> 0:04:34.160 decks in Germany down three point one percent, and the 0:04:34.240 --> 0:04:37.560 cat arent leading losses down three point three percent, so 0:04:37.640 --> 0:04:39.520 catching up with the losses we saw in the US 0:04:39.600 --> 0:04:43.200 on Friday. In the equity markets bonds, also following Friday's 0:04:43.320 --> 0:04:45.919 US action, we see a bid for European sovereigns. The 0:04:45.960 --> 0:04:48.680 yields on the gender to the German tenure Bund falling 0:04:48.720 --> 0:04:51.960 eight basis points point to one nine percent there, and 0:04:52.000 --> 0:04:54.560 the tenure guilt yield falling five basis points one point 0:04:54.600 --> 0:04:57.560 five percent. The yield on the tenure guilt Live in London, 0:04:57.640 --> 0:05:00.719 Max Ramsey, Bloomberg Daybreak. Okay, Max, thanks for also seeing jail. 0:05:00.760 --> 0:05:03.360 Political tensions have an impact on energy markets. At one 0:05:03.360 --> 0:05:05.919 point this morning, crewed rallied more than one percent, at 0:05:05.960 --> 0:05:08.599 its highest level in eight years. Right now, both Nimex 0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:11.000 and Brent Cruder up two tenths per cent. West Texas 0:05:11.040 --> 0:05:14.039 Intermediates at ninety seven cents of barrel, Brent is at 0:05:14.839 --> 0:05:17.840 sixty well Nathan Ukraine tensions are dealing another blow to 0:05:17.920 --> 0:05:20.919 markets that are already skittish about inflation and interest rates. 0:05:20.920 --> 0:05:23.320 Forecast call for as many as seven rate highs from 0:05:23.320 --> 0:05:26.080 the Fed this year. San Francisco FED President Mary Daly 0:05:26.160 --> 0:05:29.080 says the Central Bank needs to be measured in its approach. 0:05:30.080 --> 0:05:34.599 What I would favor is moving in March and then watching, measuring, 0:05:34.920 --> 0:05:37.520 being very careful about what we see ahead of us, 0:05:37.720 --> 0:05:40.440 and then taking the next interest rate increase when it 0:05:40.480 --> 0:05:42.880 seems the best place to do that, and that could 0:05:42.920 --> 0:05:46.080 be in the next meeting or could be a meeting away. 0:05:46.440 --> 0:05:48.880 And San Francisco Fed President Mary Daily made the comments 0:05:48.880 --> 0:05:51.120 on Face the Nation from CBS, and you can hear 0:05:51.160 --> 0:05:54.400 the program every Sunday right here on Bloomberg Radio. Oh 0:05:54.480 --> 0:05:57.400 Karen is COVID cases ease across the country. Back to 0:05:57.440 --> 0:05:59.880 the office plans are coming back, But it turns out 0:05:59.880 --> 0:06:02.520 a growing number of white collar workers do not want 0:06:02.560 --> 0:06:04.960 to return to their desks full time. Let's get the 0:06:05.000 --> 0:06:07.719 details live from Bloomberg's Real need a young Good morning Granita, 0:06:07.800 --> 0:06:10.880 Good morning Nathan. Just three percent of white collar workers 0:06:10.880 --> 0:06:13.159 want to return to the office five days a week. 0:06:13.520 --> 0:06:17.880 That's according to a poll by management consultancy Advanced Workplace Associates, 0:06:18.120 --> 0:06:22.200 which warrants employees will quit if companies force them back 0:06:22.240 --> 0:06:25.720 full time. Eight six percent of the ten thousand employees 0:06:25.760 --> 0:06:28.160 polled globally want to work from home at least two 0:06:28.240 --> 0:06:30.560 days a week. People from all age groups at a 0:06:30.560 --> 0:06:33.920 broad range of industries felt the same way it. Advanced 0:06:33.960 --> 0:06:38.000 Workplace Associates managing director Andrew Mawson says bosses who are 0:06:38.040 --> 0:06:42.760 not sensitive to their employees needs will suffer. Accordingly, Live 0:06:42.760 --> 0:06:45.239 in New York. I'm gonna need a Young Bloomberg daybreak, 0:06:45.279 --> 0:06:47.679 all right, we need a thanks right now. SMP futures 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:50.360 are down thirty nine point, staff futures down two undred 0:06:50.440 --> 0:06:52.880 sixty five. Dance Act futures are lower by a hundred 0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:55.360 sixty one points. The decks in Germany is down three 0:06:55.400 --> 0:06:57.760 point one percent. The cat in Paris lower by three 0:06:57.800 --> 0:07:00.680 point three percent. Sen Your Treasure three is up five 0:07:00.720 --> 0:07:04.440 thirty seconds, the yield one point nine comic scold up 0:07:04.440 --> 0:07:07.000 three quarters of one percent, up thirteen dollar sixty cents 0:07:07.000 --> 0:07:09.880 at eighteen fifty five seventy an ounce, and right now 0:07:09.880 --> 0:07:13.480 Bitcoin is trading at about forty two thousand, two hundred dollars. 0:07:13.480 --> 0:07:16.320 Straight Ahead will have your latest local headlines, plus a 0:07:16.440 --> 0:07:23.640 check of Super Bowl fifty six. This is Bloomberg at 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:26.320 six oh seven on Wall Street, Worth seventeen degrees in 0:07:26.400 --> 0:07:28.960 Central Park. Heads up if you're headed to JFK Airport, 0:07:29.000 --> 0:07:31.800 there's an accident the southbound van Wicke at Liberty Avenue. 0:07:32.240 --> 0:07:34.040 Michael barrs here with what else is going on in 0:07:34.040 --> 0:07:36.360 New York and around the world. Good morning, Michael, Good 0:07:36.360 --> 0:07:38.880 morning nin Than. Transit officials in New York are hoping 0:07:38.880 --> 0:07:42.120 a recent uptick and subway ridership is a sign that 0:07:42.160 --> 0:07:45.400 the city is bouncing back from the omicron surge. The 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:48.520 m g A reported subway ridership top three million for 0:07:49.000 --> 0:07:51.600 three days in a row last week. It was the 0:07:51.600 --> 0:07:54.520 first time that had happened since the omicron wave hit 0:07:54.560 --> 0:07:58.280 New York in mid December. Weekday ridership regular late top 0:07:58.320 --> 0:08:02.600 five point five million before COVID nineteen. A vital commerce 0:08:02.680 --> 0:08:07.320 crossing between Detroit and Windsor, Ontario has reopened. A truck 0:08:07.480 --> 0:08:10.560 blockade had closed the Ambassador Bridge for about a week. 0:08:10.840 --> 0:08:13.960 Windsor Police Chief Pamela Mazzuno says about a dozen people 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:17.160 were arrested. Any unlawful activity in the area will not 0:08:17.240 --> 0:08:20.160 be tolerated and officers will take the necessary action to 0:08:20.280 --> 0:08:23.360 keep the peace and traffic flowing. There will be criminal 0:08:23.400 --> 0:08:26.640 consequences for those who interfere with or entrupt traffic flow. 0:08:27.080 --> 0:08:30.640 Chief Maszuno also says they seized five vehicles and towed 0:08:30.680 --> 0:08:35.600 seven more. Protesters were demonstrating over vaccine rules. Albuquerque police 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:38.680 say they have arrested demand suspected of stabbing eleven people 0:08:38.720 --> 0:08:41.960 in the city. The apparent random incidents were reported at 0:08:42.040 --> 0:08:45.280 multiple locations. Police say the suspect rode a bike and 0:08:45.400 --> 0:08:48.760 was armed with a large knife. Senator Lindsay Graham says 0:08:48.800 --> 0:08:51.600 that he is moving forward from the January sixth Capital 0:08:51.679 --> 0:08:56.040 riot and the elections. Graham is instead focusing on the 0:08:56.120 --> 0:09:00.520 twenty two mid terms. I am not contesting the election. 0:09:00.840 --> 0:09:03.640 I like to reform the system, the problems we found 0:09:03.640 --> 0:09:07.560 in need to be addressed, but the election is over 0:09:07.600 --> 0:09:11.200 for me. Senator Braham also says that he believes President 0:09:11.200 --> 0:09:14.320 Trump stands a great chance of being elected in four 0:09:14.360 --> 0:09:18.760 provided he avoids talking about the elections. Graham spoke on 0:09:18.800 --> 0:09:21.439 ABC's This Week, which can be heard Sundays on Bloomberg. 0:09:21.840 --> 0:09:24.959 Many on social media say the Super Bowl halftime show 0:09:25.080 --> 0:09:28.160 was a huge success. The show on NBC had Dr 0:09:28.200 --> 0:09:31.520 Dre and Snoop Dogg kicking it off, and then Mary J. 0:09:31.679 --> 0:09:39.720 Blige was there with a surprise performance from and Slim 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:43.920 Shady himself. M and M Global News twenty four hours 0:09:43.920 --> 0:09:46.400 a day on air and on Bloomberg Quick Take Power 0:09:46.480 --> 0:09:49.280 by more than twenty seven undred journalist and analysts more 0:09:49.320 --> 0:09:52.680 than a twenty countries. I'm Michael Barn this is Bloomberg, Nathan. 0:09:52.720 --> 0:09:56.600 Remember when Sugar Hill Gang was old school? Thanks Michael, 0:10:01.679 --> 0:10:03.520 coming up to sixth ten on Wall Street. Let's talk 0:10:03.520 --> 0:10:06.040 about the game. Now, here's John Stenshion, Thanks Nathan. The 0:10:06.120 --> 0:10:08.800 Rams had a lot to overcome in the Super Bowl. 0:10:08.920 --> 0:10:11.280 Early injury to the white out Odell Beckham, he had 0:10:11.280 --> 0:10:13.960 scored the game's first touchdown. They had that dropped hold 0:10:14.000 --> 0:10:15.600 on an extra point that would prove to be a 0:10:15.640 --> 0:10:18.720 factor and the blown call. The officials didn't see an 0:10:18.760 --> 0:10:22.679 offensive face mask on Cincinnati's seventy five yard touchdown that 0:10:22.800 --> 0:10:24.880 gave them the lead early third quarter, but after both 0:10:24.880 --> 0:10:28.360 teams were not doing much offensively, there were seven straight 0:10:28.400 --> 0:10:31.200 possessions that ended in punts. The Rams went on a 0:10:31.240 --> 0:10:34.280 long drive seventy nine yards. This was the fifteenth play 0:10:34.600 --> 0:10:37.720 Africa London, seven steps back pros, the faith fact shoulder 0:10:37.880 --> 0:10:43.800 Cooper Clubs got it Cooper cut incident in touchdown, touchdown, 0:10:44.679 --> 0:10:49.200 touchdown radio those cup second touchdown The Rams sack show 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:52.280 Burrow seven times, nearly an eighth on a fourth and 0:10:52.400 --> 0:10:55.199 one in completion that gave the Rams to win twenty 0:10:55.280 --> 0:10:57.760 three to twenty with cup, the m d P and 0:10:57.840 --> 0:11:00.640 the second championship and franchise history. But the other one 0:11:01.080 --> 0:11:03.120 was when they played in St. Louis So Champa Bay 0:11:03.160 --> 0:11:05.319 last year. LA this season two years in a row 0:11:05.840 --> 0:11:09.760 Super Bowl winning teams playing in their home stadium. Devil's 0:11:09.800 --> 0:11:12.360 lost to Pittsburgh three two. St. John's lost the yukon 0:11:12.559 --> 0:11:15.719 sixty three sixty. The Red Storm was one in four 0:11:15.800 --> 0:11:17.760 while playing at the Gardens twentieth win of the year 0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:20.800 for Iona at the Olympics US one gold and silver 0:11:20.880 --> 0:11:23.920 in the new event women's singles. Bob's Lad. They'd call 0:11:23.960 --> 0:11:26.439 it Moto Bob. The gold, the Callie Humphreys who used 0:11:26.480 --> 0:11:29.720 to compete for Canada, and the silver. The thirty seven 0:11:29.760 --> 0:11:32.640 year old mom Elina Myers Taylor. The fifteen year old 0:11:32.920 --> 0:11:35.920 Russian figure skating phenom Tamila valley Eva will be allowed 0:11:35.920 --> 0:11:38.800 to compete des quite a recent failed drug test. John 0:11:38.840 --> 0:11:42.959 Stash Award Bluebird Sports Okay John Thanks SMP features down 0:11:43.040 --> 0:11:45.959 down thirty seven points down, futures down two hundred forty nine. 0:11:46.000 --> 0:11:48.920 Nastack futures are lower by a hundred fifty seven points. 0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:51.800 The tenure treasury is up three thirty seconds, the yield 0:11:52.160 --> 0:11:56.600 one point nine to With geopolitical risk at the four, 0:11:56.920 --> 0:11:59.960 we'll get the latest on the tensions over Ukraine. Next 0:12:00.000 --> 0:12:08.120 Smith University College, London's Julie Norman. This is Bloomberg Bloomberg 0:12:08.160 --> 0:12:10.439 eleven three oh weather sunny, breezy, highs only in the 0:12:10.520 --> 0:12:13.080 upper twenties today. We'll get into the mid thirties tomorrow, 0:12:13.280 --> 0:12:16.839 increasing clouds Wednesday with a high close stuff fifty Right 0:12:16.880 --> 0:12:24.320 now seventeen degrees in Central Park. Markets, headlines and breaking 0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:27.240 news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com, 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:30.880 the Bloomberg Business apt and at Bloomberg Cricktake this is 0:12:30.920 --> 0:12:40.079 a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow's dogs falling 0:12:40.080 --> 0:12:42.840 around the world as geo political risks over Ukraine ripple 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:46.280 through global markets, adding to concerns about inflation and the 0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:49.719 prospect of aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. To team it, 0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:52.680 we checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. 0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:56.120 On Bloomberg SNP Future is down thirty eight points this morning. 0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:59.240 Down Future is down two d fifty six. Nasday futures 0:12:59.240 --> 0:13:02.160 down one fifty seven. The tacks in Germany's down three 0:13:02.200 --> 0:13:05.360 and a quarter percent, and your treasury up three thirty seconds. 0:13:05.360 --> 0:13:07.559 You had one point nine two percent yield on a 0:13:07.640 --> 0:13:10.560 two year one point five two per cent not Mexcrude 0:13:10.559 --> 0:13:12.720 oil is up two jos per cent or sixteen cents 0:13:12.760 --> 0:13:15.280 at ninety three dollar eight cents of barrel. Call mex 0:13:15.320 --> 0:13:17.600 school the three quarters of a percent or fourteen dollars 0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:20.439 at eighteen fifty six ten and ounce. The euro one 0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:22.720 point one three oh one against the dollar British found 0:13:22.760 --> 0:13:25.360 one point three five one one, the NSIT one fifteen 0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:28.559 point one nine, and Bitcoin this morning moving lower at 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:32.120 forty two thousand, one hundred sixty dollars. That's a Bloomberg 0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:34.560 business flash. Now here's Michael Barr with more on what's 0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:37.200 going on around the world. Michael Karen, thank you very much. 0:13:37.400 --> 0:13:40.920 Some airlines have canceled flights to the capital of Ukraine, 0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:44.679 and troops there have unloaded fresh shipments of weapons from 0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:47.720 NATO members. The US has been warning of a possible 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:51.640 invasion within days by a growing number of Russian forces. 0:13:52.160 --> 0:13:56.080 Aged President Volodimir Zelinski and President Joe Biden say. The 0:13:56.080 --> 0:13:59.840 two leaders spoke for about an hour on the phone yesterday. 0:14:00.360 --> 0:14:04.360 Russian leader Camilla Valieva has been cleared to compete in 0:14:04.400 --> 0:14:08.120 the women's figure skating competition at the Beijing Winter Olympics 0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:12.800 despite failing a pregames drug test. Super Bowl fifty six 0:14:12.880 --> 0:14:16.400 in the books Los Angeles Rams. They beat the Cincinnati 0:14:16.440 --> 0:14:20.560 Mangles in the NBA, The Celtics lost in the NHL. 0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:24.000 The Devil's Lost. Global News twenty four hours a day 0:14:24.040 --> 0:14:27.240 on air and on Bloomberg Quick Take, powered by more 0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:30.400 than twenty seven under journalist a mantelist in more than 0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:34.400 a hundred twenty countries. I'm Michael barn This is Bloomberg, Nathan. Alright, Michael, 0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:36.600 thank you at six nineteen on Wall Street Live from 0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:39.760 the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. We 0:14:39.800 --> 0:14:42.160 want to get more now on the situation with Ukraine. 0:14:42.240 --> 0:14:45.280 Julie Norman is with US lecture on Politics and International 0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:48.600 Relations at University College London. Professor, It's always good to 0:14:48.640 --> 0:14:50.640 speak with you. Over the last few days, we've been 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:53.280 hearing from the US that the window is open for 0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:56.960 Russia to invade Ukraine pretty much at any time, including 0:14:57.040 --> 0:15:00.520 during the Olympics. I wonder whether the window is still 0:15:00.560 --> 0:15:03.960 open or is it closing further on diplomacy to try 0:15:04.000 --> 0:15:07.600 to head this off well, Nathan, that's certainly the big 0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:10.400 question this week, and we have heard an escalation of 0:15:10.440 --> 0:15:13.480 the sense of urgency and this is in response to 0:15:13.520 --> 0:15:16.480 a couple of things. First, at the end of last week, 0:15:16.760 --> 0:15:21.640 A Russia began military exercises in Belarus, which essentially placed 0:15:21.680 --> 0:15:25.440 Russian troops even closer to Kiev and Ukrainian border, as 0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:27.560 well as naval exercises in the Black sea to the 0:15:27.600 --> 0:15:30.120 movement of troops has on has shifted in a in 0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:33.880 a kind of a strategic way. Second is intelligence reports 0:15:33.920 --> 0:15:37.040 from U S Intelligence about the possibility of a false 0:15:37.040 --> 0:15:40.520 flag kind of incident to provoke a response. And third is, 0:15:40.560 --> 0:15:42.640 as you noted, just this sense that the roots to 0:15:42.680 --> 0:15:46.760 diplomacy do seem to be narrowing. With that said, German 0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:50.960 chance or Schultz will be in Kiev and Moscow this week. Uh, 0:15:51.040 --> 0:15:54.560 European leaders are continuing to meet. Biden of course spoke 0:15:54.600 --> 0:15:57.080 with Putting over the phone on the weekend, So there 0:15:57.120 --> 0:16:01.120 are still these very strong diplomatic first taking place. But 0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:05.000 at the same time, the situation does seem much more 0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:09.040 possible right now for an invasion than than any time previous. Yeah, 0:16:09.040 --> 0:16:12.120 there's been a lot of discussion among Western leaders and 0:16:12.400 --> 0:16:16.680 President Putin in terms of the security guarantees that Russia 0:16:16.720 --> 0:16:20.000 has been looking for. It doesn't seem though, as though 0:16:20.120 --> 0:16:23.440 this talk has got much of anywhere where. Do you 0:16:23.480 --> 0:16:26.880 see the possibility that we could see some kind of 0:16:26.960 --> 0:16:29.240 meeting in the middle in terms of what Russia is 0:16:29.280 --> 0:16:34.160 looking for from the Western alliance and just heading off 0:16:34.200 --> 0:16:38.000 the possibility of an invasion here. Yeah, Well, that's certainly 0:16:38.000 --> 0:16:41.640 the secret and what work you're obviously wants is a 0:16:41.960 --> 0:16:45.120 sort of guarantee that Ukraine will not be admitted to 0:16:45.200 --> 0:16:48.400 NATO any time soon or they any time in the future. 0:16:48.920 --> 0:16:51.560 Uh NATO of course does not want to make that 0:16:51.680 --> 0:16:55.640 kind of guarantee, is doubling down on their open door policy. 0:16:55.680 --> 0:16:58.480 So the States negotiations right now would be if there's 0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:01.480 any wiggle room within that. You know, some voices have said, 0:17:01.520 --> 0:17:03.800 would it be possible to call for a sort of 0:17:04.040 --> 0:17:07.360 moratorium or a certain time frame that would u then 0:17:07.440 --> 0:17:11.760 which Ukraine would not join NATO again. Those compromises make 0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:14.880 sense in some ways from the security compromise point of view, 0:17:15.240 --> 0:17:17.360 but you don't want to be making compromises like that 0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:20.040 because of a massitute build up and setting that as 0:17:20.040 --> 0:17:23.320 a precedent for making these kinds of compromises. So that's 0:17:23.400 --> 0:17:26.840 the tension right now. I think there are some potential 0:17:26.880 --> 0:17:29.399 ways that that there could be some compromises, but the 0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:32.200 situation is just as such a high expilratory point, it's 0:17:32.320 --> 0:17:35.679 very hard to make those concessions. Is there a disconnect 0:17:36.040 --> 0:17:38.760 that you can see between how the US and Europe 0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:42.520 are confronting Russia here and the reaction that we're hearing 0:17:42.560 --> 0:17:45.679 from Ukraine. It seems like over the last several days 0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:48.800 the message coming out of Ukraine is not to panic 0:17:49.080 --> 0:17:53.239 and to to try to ease tensions. Well, that's right. 0:17:53.240 --> 0:17:56.080 In Zialenki in particular has been very focused on this 0:17:56.200 --> 0:18:00.280 sense of projecting calm, not wanting people to panic um 0:18:00.320 --> 0:18:02.960 and that's partly just in terms of internal politics and 0:18:03.119 --> 0:18:05.639 not wanting to wear all the economy even further than 0:18:05.680 --> 0:18:08.640 it already has been within Ukraine, but also to try 0:18:08.680 --> 0:18:11.240 and himself de escalate what he obviously sees as a 0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:13.760 as a very tense situation as well. You know. With 0:18:13.920 --> 0:18:16.520 that said, the US and NATO, I think, are trying 0:18:16.520 --> 0:18:20.280 to learn some of the lessons from with Crimea, where 0:18:20.600 --> 0:18:23.240 they were much more closed in terms of their discourse. 0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:26.040 They did not, uh, you know, kind of publicized a 0:18:26.040 --> 0:18:27.840 lot of the intelligence they were having and they felt 0:18:27.880 --> 0:18:30.560 Putin took advantage of that. So they're trying to turn 0:18:30.560 --> 0:18:33.520 the cables this time, get out ahead of Putin, if 0:18:33.520 --> 0:18:35.960 you will, that he's on the back foot, than then 0:18:36.040 --> 0:18:38.920 responding to what they see as Russian moves. So it's 0:18:38.960 --> 0:18:41.520 a different kind of tactics for sure. Again, it's one 0:18:41.560 --> 0:18:44.400 that at least so far has you know, not led 0:18:44.440 --> 0:18:46.680 to an invasion yet. But again I think this week 0:18:46.720 --> 0:18:49.080 we'll we'll see if this kind of strategy is is 0:18:49.080 --> 0:18:52.119 going to yield some fruits. About thirty seconds left here, 0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:54.280 But are you getting any sense that this warning that 0:18:54.359 --> 0:18:59.760 Russia could face severe sanctions of severe economic penalties is 0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:03.960 playing in at all to how Russian President Putin is 0:19:04.400 --> 0:19:08.760 playing this. Most of them has of course downplayed these 0:19:09.080 --> 0:19:12.160 threats of sanctions, but in reality this would be quite 0:19:12.200 --> 0:19:15.000 hard hitting. Um it would Some of the sanctions that 0:19:15.000 --> 0:19:19.560 are being discussed would quite severely cripple the rouble, would 0:19:19.760 --> 0:19:24.600 really holte not only exports and trade, but also internal sectors, 0:19:24.600 --> 0:19:27.960 including defense, including technology that are important to Putting personally. 0:19:28.080 --> 0:19:30.720 So I do think that is playing into it. But 0:19:30.960 --> 0:19:34.240 the larger geo strategic and geopolitics questions and kind of 0:19:34.240 --> 0:19:36.720 its future sense of what the post colorder will look 0:19:36.760 --> 0:19:39.800 like seeing more of what with most driving Putins moved 0:19:39.840 --> 0:19:42.680 at the moment. Thanks for this, professor, always good having 0:19:42.680 --> 0:19:45.800 you on. Julie Norman Lecture on Politics and International Relations 0:19:46.080 --> 0:19:49.680 at University College London sp Futures down down thirty five 0:19:49.720 --> 0:19:52.320 point staff features down two hundred forty and nanosect futures 0:19:52.320 --> 0:19:55.640 are lower by a hundred fifty points just ahead. More 0:19:55.680 --> 0:19:57.920 on the market, sell off on geopolitical risk, and more 0:19:57.960 --> 0:20:00.760 office workers saying no thanks to going back to the office. 0:20:01.200 --> 0:20:03.040 Five things you need to know to start the day 0:20:03.240 --> 0:20:09.880 On Bloomberg Daybreak Bloomberg eleven three oh weather, sunshine, breezy, 0:20:10.000 --> 0:20:12.120 cold today, only upper twenties will be in the mid 0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:15.240 thirties tomorrow, increasing clouds Wednesday with a high clost to 0:20:15.359 --> 0:20:23.960 fifty right now seventeen degrees in Central part Broadcasting live 0:20:24.119 --> 0:20:28.080 from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York. Bloomberg 0:20:28.080 --> 0:20:32.160 E Living Freedom to Washington, d C, Bloomberg to Boston, 0:20:32.280 --> 0:20:36.040 Bloomberg one O six one does San Francisco, Bloomberg sixt 0:20:36.200 --> 0:20:39.040 to the country, Sirius XM Chado one nine teen and 0:20:39.080 --> 0:20:42.480 around the globe the Bloomberg Business apt in Bloomberg Radio 0:20:42.560 --> 0:20:51.840 dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. It's six thirty on 0:20:51.840 --> 0:20:55.200 Wall Street. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hagar and I'm Karen Moscow. 0:20:55.240 --> 0:20:57.480 Were just about three hours away from the open of 0:20:57.600 --> 0:20:59.720 US trading. Time for the five things you need to 0:20:59.760 --> 0:21:02.880 note to start your day Ron to you buy Interactive Brokers. 0:21:03.160 --> 0:21:06.520 Interactive Brokers charges margin loan rates from zero point seven 0:21:06.560 --> 0:21:09.479 five percent to one point five eight percent rate subject 0:21:09.480 --> 0:21:11.919 to change. Learn more at ibk r dot com. Slash 0:21:11.960 --> 0:21:15.360 compare up first stocks. You're tumbling as geo political risk 0:21:15.400 --> 0:21:19.040 over Ukraine ripple through global markets. Russia has repeatedly denied 0:21:19.040 --> 0:21:21.760 intentions to invade Ukraine, but the US is warning a 0:21:21.840 --> 0:21:26.360 conflict maybe imminent. Here's National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. Russia 0:21:26.400 --> 0:21:31.000 wants to continue engaging diplomatically to find a way forward 0:21:31.040 --> 0:21:34.440 to address their security concerns and our security concerns. Were 0:21:34.480 --> 0:21:37.640 prepared to do that. At Fressia decides instead to take 0:21:37.720 --> 0:21:41.439 major military action against Ukraine. Were prepared to respond decisively. 0:21:41.760 --> 0:21:44.800 National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan made the comments on Face 0:21:44.840 --> 0:21:48.920 the Nation from CBS third Sundays. Right here on Bloomberg Radio. Now, 0:21:48.920 --> 0:21:52.280 we're seeing geopolitical tensions affect the energy markets, Karen. Right now, 0:21:52.280 --> 0:21:55.520 oil is a touch lower after rising for eight straight weeks. 0:21:55.560 --> 0:21:58.119 Some investors predict the hundred dollars of barrel right now, 0:21:58.200 --> 0:22:01.600 name excrudes at X down about two tenths per cent. 0:22:01.800 --> 0:22:03.919 Brent is lowered by two tenths percent as well at 0:22:03.960 --> 0:22:07.440 ninety four dollars six cents. Turning the economy now, Nathan. 0:22:07.520 --> 0:22:10.760 San Francisco Fed President Mary Daily is weighing in on policy. 0:22:10.880 --> 0:22:13.400 She says the FED needs to be measured and data dependent. 0:22:13.720 --> 0:22:16.239 Current forecast call for as many as seven interest rate 0:22:16.320 --> 0:22:19.560