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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju us proud read.

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Speaker 2: Enough there are running again, So smoothe so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 3: Sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 4: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

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Speaker 4: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop with mind bog buddy, and.

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Speaker 1: That's why you see you as beautiful tiers. Look at

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Speaker 1: his movements, the.

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Speaker 3: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them. Shut up, I'm trying again.

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Speaker 4: The love it's left too, the wide eyed.

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Speaker 3: Drill bibus, how old Earth.

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Speaker 1: Pick that happens? Hello everybody, and welcome to Wonder Goal,

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Speaker 1: the soccer betting podcast from the Action Network. I am

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Speaker 1: your host today BJ Cunningham alongside my cot and friend

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Speaker 1: Anthony Dubundo, as we take you through the ten match

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Speaker 1: Premier League slate and take a little gant around Europe

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Speaker 1: as well. But first, Wonder Goal is proudly presented by

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Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five and Bet three six five doesn't

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Speaker 1: do ordinary. It believes that every sport should be epic.

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Speaker 1: Every match, every game, every goal, every play, from the

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Speaker 1: moments that are legendary to the ones that fly under

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Speaker 1: the radar. See for yourself. When you sign up today

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Speaker 1: with Code Action, you'll get three hundred and sixty five

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Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets when you bet just one dollar.

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Speaker 1: Whatever the sport, whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At

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Speaker 1: bet three six five, you must be twenty one years

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Speaker 1: or older. Must be present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio,

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Speaker 1: or Virginia. If you know someone who has a gambling

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Speaker 1: problem and wants help, call one eight hundred gambler in Colorado,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio and Virginia or one eight hundred bets

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Speaker 1: off in Iowa. Terms and conditions apply. All right, we

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Speaker 1: have a wonderful Premier League slate ahead of this weekend.

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Speaker 1: We have great matches from Manchester United and traveling to

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Speaker 1: Burnley Liverpool taking on David Moys. But there's really only

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Speaker 1: one place to start, and it's a podcast, Arby. It's

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Speaker 1: almost fitting that Michael is out tonight so me and

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Speaker 1: Anthony can go head to head. Arsenal hosts Tottenham at

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Speaker 1: the Emirates. According to Anthony Dubundo, Arsenal the worst team

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Speaker 1: in the world, a team that is destined for relegation

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Speaker 1: is somehow a minus one forty three favorite at home

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Speaker 1: Tottenham sitting at plus three thirty three with a draw

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Speaker 1: at plus three twenty Anthony, I'll let you go first.

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Speaker 1: I have a ton of thoughts on this match. In

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Speaker 1: terms of the market perspective, I think that the line

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Speaker 1: is about right. But other than that, I mean, do

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Speaker 1: you think Tottam has a chance to pull off a

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Speaker 1: stunning upset over what wouldn't be an upset according to you?

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Speaker 2: No, I think I mean, of course it'd be an upset.

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Speaker 2: Arsenal's at home, they're the better team. My projection makes

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Speaker 2: Arsenal about minus one twenty nine. So I'm pretty much

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Speaker 2: a little bit short on the market. But once you

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Speaker 2: take out like big it's it's pretty much in line

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Speaker 2: with where it is. I'm going to put my hand up.

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Speaker 2: If you're listening on the podcast, you can't see it.

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Speaker 2: If you're on YouTube you can. I was wrong today

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Speaker 2: about Arsenal in the Champions League. Gabrielle Jesus made his return,

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Speaker 2: and I'll tell you what they sure did look a

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Speaker 2: lot better. More fluid in attack, created a lot more

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Speaker 2: big chances, easily able to kind.

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Speaker 3: Of carve open a PSV defense that you know.

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Speaker 2: I'm not particularly high on but that I thought would

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Speaker 2: show well iBOT the und of three and once I

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Speaker 2: saw the lineup, I was like, oh boy, like, you know,

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Speaker 2: Trossard and jay Zus is a fun combo.

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Speaker 3: I'll be interested to see what.

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Speaker 2: Arteta does here. Does he stick with jay Esus? I

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Speaker 2: mean he should and it would be certainly optimal to

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Speaker 2: do so. But you know, so far in the league,

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Speaker 2: if you just look at pure XG difference five matches,

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Speaker 2: Tottenham and Arsenal have not been all that different in

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Speaker 2: terms of, you know, quality of chances created. They've gone

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Speaker 2: about it in different ways. Arsenal have been clearly the

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Speaker 2: much better defensive side. Tottenham have created more chances once

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Speaker 2: you factor in shrink the schedule, these two teams are

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Speaker 2: pretty comparable. But again, you know, Arsenal getting Jayesus back

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Speaker 2: I think raises them up enough to the point where

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Speaker 2: I would probably pass on betting Spurs unless I can

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Speaker 2: get you know, like a full three quarters of a goal,

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Speaker 2: and then I would be more interested because I think

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Speaker 2: the market is up on Tottenham and I'm not totally

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Speaker 2: sure that they've proven enough yet to warrant that. I

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Speaker 2: think there's still a question about where the shots come

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Speaker 2: from and we're going to get to that in a second,

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Speaker 2: because they do have a problem that I'm playing. But

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Speaker 2: I think when you look at how this plays out tactically,

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of uncertainty because we have not seen

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Speaker 2: and ball go up against a team of the caliber

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Speaker 2: of Arsenal in terms of possession structure. You know, we've

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Speaker 2: seen Tottenham beat Man United and how they went about that,

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Speaker 2: but Man United and Arsenal are very different in how

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Speaker 2: they approach matches and how they want to control.

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Speaker 3: United plays more.

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Speaker 2: You know, off the ball, pressing and Arsenal wants to

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Speaker 2: strangle possession away at all. So we have not seen

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Speaker 2: this and two three five go up against a team.

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Speaker 3: Of this caliber.

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Speaker 2: We did see them play Barcelona and a friendly, and

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Speaker 2: I think there are parallels to how Arteta's Arsenal and

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Speaker 2: Chavi's Barsa play. And look, Tottenham was able to control

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Speaker 2: good portions of the possession in that match and and

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Speaker 2: generated a lot of shots, but they also conceded a

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Speaker 2: ton up the wings in transition, so that's gonna be

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Speaker 2: another red flag. This could be a match where you know,

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Speaker 2: not having Martinelly could hurt because he is the best

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Speaker 2: pure outlet that they have in transition as a runner.

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Speaker 2: Troussard's you know, much more of an Arteta E type forward.

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Speaker 2: But you know, from a side perspective, I have no

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Speaker 2: real opinion here. The total looks about right to me.

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Speaker 2: We've seen Tottenham totals take a ton of over money

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Speaker 2: day off every match this season just about the market

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Speaker 2: is steamed up. You saw it against Sheffield where you

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Speaker 2: know we we liked three two five three plus money

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Speaker 2: early in the week under and then it's steamed up

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Speaker 2: all the way to almost three and a half before

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Speaker 2: kick against United, steamed up against Bournemouth. So I've actually

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Speaker 2: found myself betting a lot of late Tottenham unders. I've

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Speaker 2: done it twice now, where the market goes way too

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Speaker 2: high I think. And so if this were to get

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Speaker 2: to a three and a half flat that is when

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Speaker 2: I would absolutely buy the under one. But from a

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Speaker 2: side perspective, I have no bet here, sad because but

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Speaker 2: I have a prop. But I'll let you talk first

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Speaker 2: then we'll get into the don't.

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Speaker 1: I don't really have a side here, you know, we

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Speaker 1: off air we had talked a little bit of maybe

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Speaker 1: about both teams to score no which is currently a

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Speaker 1: plus one fifty kind of interesting. The one thing, and

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Speaker 1: I think you hit the nail on the head, is

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Speaker 1: that we haven't seen what Tottenham is going to be

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Speaker 1: like when the other team is controlling a ton of

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Speaker 1: possession and they have to be the ones sitting in.

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Speaker 1: Are they actually going to press with reckless abandonment like

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Speaker 1: angreball currently is where their second and passive per defensive

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Speaker 1: action or are they going to sit more passive and

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Speaker 1: let Arsenal have the ball. Now. I understand Arsenal is

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Speaker 1: not putting up these eye popping expected goals numbers or

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Speaker 1: really anything, and that's you know, people like you can

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Speaker 1: be concerned about that. But what our Seneal does have

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Speaker 1: right now is complete game control, and that's something Ourteta

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Speaker 1: really really wants. Arsenal right now is leading the Premier

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Speaker 1: League and field till they're allowing the lowest expected threat,

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Speaker 1: They're controlling over sixty six percent of the possession, and

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Speaker 1: the number one team in the Premier League in terms

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Speaker 1: of offensive pass per defensive action or playing through pressure.

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Speaker 1: So if Tottenham were to start pressing Arsenal high and

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Speaker 1: try to disrupt their build up play, it's a really,

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Speaker 1: really dangerous game to play against Arsenal. And the one

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Speaker 1: thing that I'll say about and is that, yes, we

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Speaker 1: haven't seen this before. If you go back to last

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Speaker 1: year and you draw some parallels with his Celtic team. Now,

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Speaker 1: his Celtic team's obviously very different than the Tottenham team

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Speaker 1: that he has now, but in terms of tactical how

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Speaker 1: he would set up if you remember, Celtic wasn't a

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Speaker 1: group with ARBI Leipzig and Real Madrid. In both of

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Speaker 1: the away matches they got absolutely ripped apart. They tried

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Speaker 1: to press high, they didn't really know what to do

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Speaker 1: out of possession because they held the ball for so

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Speaker 1: long in the Scottish Premier League. And then you know,

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Speaker 1: those two teams really got at him and trainransition and

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Speaker 1: they gave up a ton of expected goals. Now, I

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Speaker 1: don't think that exact same scenario is going to happen here,

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Speaker 1: but it does draw some parallels of what Ajiball is

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Speaker 1: and it's obviously you know, high pressing, intense, trying to

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Speaker 1: disrupt build up play and then looking to play teams

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Speaker 1: in transition. I think we need to see it first

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Speaker 1: before we decide, you know, to essentially take a side

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Speaker 1: here one way or the other, I do project Arsenal

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Speaker 1: minus one thirty nine, so I'm right in the line

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Speaker 1: of where the market is. Did project both team to

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Speaker 1: score no at plus one twenty two, so plus one

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Speaker 1: fifty does have some value. And if you know, Arsenal

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Speaker 1: is able to have that uber game control and they

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Speaker 1: play the back four that they are currently playing, which

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Speaker 1: is the back four that was the reason why they

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Speaker 1: were allowing under one expected goal per ninety last season

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Speaker 1: before Saliba got hurt, then it makes me more inclined,

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Speaker 1: like you said to Ben and under or both teams

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Speaker 1: to score now. So I think we're kind of leaning

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Speaker 1: in the same direction here. But aside, I have no opinion,

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Speaker 1: but I think you have a great a great anytime

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Speaker 1: goal scorer parl or a pick here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so let's play trivia. Who do you think has

184
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Speaker 2: taken the most shots for Tottenham this year?

185
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Speaker 1: Probably say, let's see, they've been kind of rotating strikers

186
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Speaker 1: and I can't.

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Speaker 2: It's sa ay Son and no, actually it's James Madison.

188
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Speaker 2: Number two is Dayon Koulosevsky. They both played pretty much

189
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Speaker 2: every minute in the prem this year. The third person

190
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Speaker 2: is Pap Matar Sar, their new central midfielder, who has

191
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Speaker 2: played in that eight role you know, in in this

192
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Speaker 2: Tottenham two three five setup next to Basuma, but he's

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Speaker 2: had a lot of free reign to get forward. So

194
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Speaker 2: you know, you have your six which is Pasuma, you're

195
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Speaker 2: eight which is Sar, and then you're ten. So Madison's

196
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Speaker 2: more of the playracher role. And because of the lack

197
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Speaker 2: of shots they've gotten from the striker position, it's been

198
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Speaker 2: a lot of Sar and I've been betting his you know,

199
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Speaker 2: shots per match over now we don't have markets up

200
00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:56,959
Speaker 2: yet for individual players. This is Wednesday. I'll be fascinated

201
00:09:57,000 --> 00:09:59,400
Speaker 2: to see what his over shots or to get a

202
00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:02,360
Speaker 2: shot on target. It looks like for me, it's not

203
00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:04,520
Speaker 2: all that different from what Noa Long just did to

204
00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:06,920
Speaker 2: this Arsenal team, where he found a ton of space

205
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Speaker 2: in transition. And I do think, you know, as good

206
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Speaker 2: as Arsenal has been defensively, and I will credit them

207
00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:14,280
Speaker 2: for that because even if you schedule adjust their numbers,

208
00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:16,920
Speaker 2: they have been in elite defense, they have still not

209
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Speaker 2: played anybody of the caliber of Tottenham, I think from

210
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Speaker 2: an attacking perspective, and look, I know how good you know,

211
00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:26,280
Speaker 2: United has looked at times in attack, but I consider

212
00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:27,760
Speaker 2: them to be more of a jumbled mess. And look,

213
00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:30,840
Speaker 2: United had their opportunities and did get a decent number

214
00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:34,200
Speaker 2: of shots in that match, you know, especially as it

215
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Speaker 2: wore on later on in the match. So sorrow for

216
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Speaker 2: me is somebody that I'm going to be looking toward with,

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Speaker 2: you know, anytime goal scorer. He's listed at twelve to

218
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Speaker 2: one at one book. That is way too high. He

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Speaker 2: has taken three point nine seven shots per ninety from

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Speaker 2: an average shot distance twelve yards.

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Speaker 3: That is like fullward level number.

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Speaker 2: That's like what Harry Kane did when he broke into

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Speaker 2: the scene at Tottenham and we were like, holy shit,

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Speaker 2: who's this Harry Kinge guy?

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Speaker 3: In twenty fifteen sixteen.

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Speaker 1: So, uh, the.

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Speaker 2: Fact that Sar is getting these kind of shot numbers,

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Speaker 2: this much freedom to go forward, and that you know,

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Speaker 2: I don't think and is the type to back down

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Speaker 2: from a challenge. I mean, we saw how they tried

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Speaker 2: to play out against United. I think they're gonna do

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Speaker 2: that again, and that means they're gonna take chances. They're

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Speaker 2: gonna probably concede as well, you know from as a result,

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Speaker 2: but they're gonna get Sar's feet in the penalty area

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Speaker 2: and if he's gonna be roaming around that box twelve

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Speaker 2: to one, I'm gonna take a shot.

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Speaker 3: Pope Matar song.

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Speaker 1: Ye. I don't hate it. I mean I don't want

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Speaker 1: to see a Tottenham player score, but if you know

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Speaker 1: I had to pick one, I guess that's tremendous value.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to what is really not

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Speaker 1: that great of a ten am slate on Saturday, but

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Speaker 1: we'll start with one. Let's start with one that we

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Speaker 1: both have Crystal Palace hosting Fulham in a London derby

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Speaker 1: Crystal Palace minus one ten, Fulham sitting at plus three

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Speaker 1: twenty with a draw at plus two forty. In terms

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Speaker 1: of spots, I mean, it doesn't get much better in

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Speaker 1: terms of a price and a spot here for Crystal Palace.

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Speaker 1: So I'll be on them at minus one ten and

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Speaker 1: I'm sure you will be too.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it certainly doesn't hurt you know that Fulham get

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Speaker 2: kind of a meh win. I mean, they were better

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Speaker 2: than Newton Town at home, but they weren't like whoa

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Speaker 2: good in that match. And then you know, Palace takes

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Speaker 2: a one zier lead into the final, you know, minutes

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Speaker 2: and Billa brings on Doran, who is a player to

257
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Speaker 2: watch for sure. I think he's really popped in the

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Speaker 2: minutes that I've seen him play. They get that, then

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Speaker 2: they get a very dodgy pen and then a third

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Speaker 2: you know, ninety eighth and ninety and one hundred and

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Speaker 2: first minute goal. This was the first week where the

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Speaker 2: prem extra time really mattered. I mean, you know, you

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Speaker 2: had Sheffield. My buddy had a Sheffield money line ticket.

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Speaker 2: You know, you had the under three and then and

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Speaker 2: then I know people that had the Palace plus a

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Speaker 2: half and I mean we're adding a lot extra time

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Speaker 2: here and look, you know, injuries, time wasting. I think

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Speaker 2: it's good they're legislating it out, but man, is it

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Speaker 2: painful to have to watch those things. But you know,

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Speaker 2: in this match, I have Palace considerably better. You know,

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Speaker 2: the questions we had about Palace were how good is

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Speaker 2: the atack they sold? Zaha Elise hasn't you know, been

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Speaker 2: a factor? How good could this attack really be? Well,

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Speaker 2: as it turns out, they are getting elite production from

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Speaker 2: ESA and from Edward this year and significantly better than

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Speaker 2: last year. So that's where they've made up for it,

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Speaker 2: and that's the difference. You know, last year as a

278
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Speaker 2: was a point three to nine x G plus xa,

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Speaker 2: which is a pretty good forward, you know, attacking forward

280
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Speaker 2: production twenty four years old. You know, you'd say that

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Speaker 2: solid production for you know, a mid table to lower

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Speaker 2: tier attacking team. But this year he has jumped up

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Speaker 2: point six x G plus x A per ninety. That

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Speaker 2: is a pretty significant leap. Do you know, is he

285
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Speaker 2: gonna sustain it?

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Speaker 3: Could he regress?

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Speaker 2: Sure, but it's not like Palace have played a bunch

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Speaker 2: of bumps. You know, they've played a decent schedule thus far.

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Speaker 2: You know, they played Brentford, they played Arsenal and they

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Speaker 2: played Villas, three pretty good teams. So when you look

291
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Speaker 2: at it, pretty average strength schedule and putting up really

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Speaker 2: good numbers. And then Edward, you know, he's been the

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Speaker 2: missing piece. You know, for years it was well if

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Speaker 2: Palace could just get a striker. Ever since been Tecade left,

295
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Speaker 2: they haven't had a true striker. Well, Edward puts really

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Speaker 2: good defensive work in and he's also putting up good

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Speaker 2: expected goals number. He's got four goals already and zero

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Speaker 2: point six to one XG plus x a per ninety

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Speaker 2: after pretty much he's almost at his season total for

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Speaker 2: XG this year relative you know, versus last year, in

301
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Speaker 2: about a fourth.

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Speaker 3: Of the playing time.

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Speaker 2: So he's on his way to a breakout season as well.

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Speaker 2: And it's come with a jumping shots. It's not just

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Speaker 2: you know, a couple of big chances that the shots

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Speaker 2: per ninety are up. So I'm believer in that against

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00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:35,800
Speaker 2: a very bad Fulham defense, Fulham continues to start Raoul Jamenez.

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Speaker 2: The attack was much better once he went off the

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Speaker 2: pitch and it was Carlos Vinicius, but again, like we

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Speaker 2: know what he is too, and it's not a particularly

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Speaker 2: good striker at the Premier league level. So I think

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Speaker 2: I have the better defense. I think I have a

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Speaker 2: better attack now with Metrovich Gohn and I'm at home

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Speaker 2: only laying minus one ten. I mean I felt the

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Speaker 2: same way about the Wolves match two weeks ago. This

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Speaker 2: is just short. Palace is the better team.

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Speaker 3: I'm going to lay it.

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Speaker 2: I know the attacking, can they play this passive approach?

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Speaker 2: But again Ed Martin essay have been really good, so

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Speaker 2: so long as they continue to produce like this, I

321
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Speaker 2: think that Palace is an eleventh place team and Fulham's

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Speaker 2: like seventeenth, so I'm going to lay it with Palace.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. So I mean I think you get

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Speaker 1: the nail on the head there. If you liked Palace

325
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Speaker 1: against Wolves at home Mis one ten, you have to

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Speaker 1: love them here against Fulham. And you mentioned the match

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Speaker 1: against Lutontown. Yeah, I didn't think Fulham was. I mean,

328
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Speaker 1: when's the last time you saw Fulham hold seventy seven

329
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Speaker 1: percent possession in a match? I mean, that was pretty insane.

330
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Speaker 1: It kind of just speaks to what Luton Town is

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Speaker 1: right now, and really what the problems that have existed

332
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Speaker 1: for Fulham is that they're supposed to be this direct

333
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Speaker 1: transitional team. Well right now they're dead last in the

334
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Speaker 1: Premier League and final third to box entry conversion. Right

335
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Speaker 1: They've had quite a few final third entries, which is

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Speaker 1: kind of impressive, but they just haven't been able to

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Speaker 1: translate those into box entries. And it kind of goes

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Speaker 1: along with what you're saying about not having a true

339
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Speaker 1: good at least out and out striker that can actually

340
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Speaker 1: get intoside the box. So going against the Palace defense

341
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Speaker 1: that yes is gonna be without Gayhee for this match

342
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Speaker 1: they're obviously without him. For against aston Villa, Chris Richards played,

343
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Speaker 1: you know, okay here or there, a little shaky at times,

344
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Speaker 1: but he's.

345
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Speaker 3: Okay, fine, he's good on the ball. That's the key because.

346
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Speaker 2: They don't have him a no, I mean gory, but

347
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Speaker 2: they have good they have you know, Anderson Gayhee right

348
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Speaker 2: rich they're.

349
00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:23,840
Speaker 1: Grey incredible ball soopper. But he's just like Palace is

350
00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:25,680
Speaker 1: not a build out of the back and let's you know,

351
00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:27,600
Speaker 1: you last short pass. It's a lot of get balls

352
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Speaker 1: up to essay and out in the wings and kind

353
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Speaker 1: of root one one football which could work very well

354
00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:35,480
Speaker 1: here against a Fulham defense. This hardy conceded ten big

355
00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:39,080
Speaker 1: scoring chances and in five matches, So yeah, I agree

356
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Speaker 1: with you. I mean only projected Palace at minus one sixteen.

357
00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:44,920
Speaker 1: But you know Fulham all is gonna be without Anty Robinson,

358
00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:48,600
Speaker 1: which is a loss for them. So Pallace minus won

359
00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:52,480
Speaker 1: ten for both of us. All right, let's speaking of

360
00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:56,360
Speaker 1: louton Town. Let's move on to that match, Loutontown taking

361
00:16:56,440 --> 00:17:00,480
Speaker 1: on Wolves. Loutontown's a plus two twenty five homeunderdog at

362
00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:04,040
Speaker 1: Kennilworth Road. Wolve's a road favorite plus one twenty with

363
00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:09,280
Speaker 1: the draw at plus two forty. I feel like this

364
00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:14,879
Speaker 1: every single week when I watch Loutontown and I'm like,

365
00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:17,239
Speaker 1: this team is no good, Like they have no they

366
00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:20,160
Speaker 1: have no talent, Like there's really no route here where

367
00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:22,240
Speaker 1: I'm like they can actually get some type of offensive

368
00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:25,160
Speaker 1: production going forward. And then every week I just stare

369
00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:26,680
Speaker 1: at the odds and I'm just like, how can I

370
00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:29,600
Speaker 1: not bet them as a home underdog against this Wolves team?

371
00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:32,159
Speaker 1: That listen, I think Wolves has actually been playing like

372
00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:35,040
Speaker 1: al right through five matches. I don't think they've been

373
00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:38,200
Speaker 1: just like this horrible, like deadbeat team. But really, what

374
00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:40,359
Speaker 1: I believe it is what's been happening with Wolves and

375
00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:42,960
Speaker 1: why they've been good is because they've been playing a

376
00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:45,359
Speaker 1: lot of teams that will, you know, get into a

377
00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:47,440
Speaker 1: end to end style match or press them high, and

378
00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:49,320
Speaker 1: really they've had a lot of space to operate and

379
00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:52,000
Speaker 1: Netto's look great, like Kunya has been good on the ball,

380
00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:55,840
Speaker 1: terrible at finishing. But in this type of match where Loutontown,

381
00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:59,920
Speaker 1: like I said, just conceded seventy seven percent possession to Fulham,

382
00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:05,800
Speaker 1: I have real question marks on how Wolves is going

383
00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:12,000
Speaker 1: to get margin here as a road favorite, so I

384
00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:14,160
Speaker 1: like Lutontown. I don't know if I want to bet

385
00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:18,760
Speaker 1: them at minus one as a plus a half at home.

386
00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:20,240
Speaker 1: We'll see where the market goes with this one. The

387
00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:23,359
Speaker 1: market's already kind of gone towards will excuse me towards

388
00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:27,400
Speaker 1: Lutontown a little bit, but stay tuned for the underdog section.

389
00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:29,160
Speaker 1: I might be adding them there. Do you have any

390
00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:29,920
Speaker 1: thoughts for this match?

391
00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:31,360
Speaker 3: Pedro Netto is back.

392
00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:34,119
Speaker 2: We joked about this with the Lawn Shapiro from the

393
00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:38,080
Speaker 2: FMLFPL pod or. I joked about it last year because

394
00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:41,440
Speaker 2: everybody in FPL wanted Pedro Netto because he was back

395
00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:43,679
Speaker 2: and he was going to be the guy. And everybody

396
00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:45,920
Speaker 2: looked at his stats from the year before prior to

397
00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:47,960
Speaker 2: the ACL and said, oh my gosh, this guy was

398
00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:49,960
Speaker 2: like the best player in the league, most underrated player.

399
00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:55,639
Speaker 2: And he is now second in the league in progressive

400
00:18:55,720 --> 00:19:01,760
Speaker 2: carries into the final third, behind only Camtoma and ahead

401
00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:06,680
Speaker 2: of Soka, Julian Alvarez and eberetches A, So that's a

402
00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:09,040
Speaker 2: pretty good company. And he carries into the penalty area

403
00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:13,280
Speaker 2: he is fifth behind raz Kulaseevsky, Rashford and Matoma.

404
00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:16,480
Speaker 3: So you know that is the attack.

405
00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:19,240
Speaker 2: But like you said, how much room are they gonna get?

406
00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 2: I don't think there's gonna be much, So yeah, this

407
00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:24,240
Speaker 2: would be looting or nothing for me. They've they've played

408
00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:26,960
Speaker 2: even in their last two games, roughly with Fulham and

409
00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:30,160
Speaker 2: with west Ham. Maybe that would leave me to bet

410
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:33,639
Speaker 2: them here too. But again, you know I told I

411
00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:35,360
Speaker 2: told myself five, I still haven't.

412
00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:35,680
Speaker 3: Used them yet.

413
00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,240
Speaker 2: If we can get a little more Wolves money late,

414
00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:42,600
Speaker 2: I would love like a month fifteen one forties a

415
00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:43,280
Speaker 2: little steep for me.

416
00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:46,320
Speaker 3: So yeah, I am going to pass.

417
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:48,280
Speaker 1: I know. It's just every week I just stare at

418
00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:50,359
Speaker 1: these looten town lines and I'm just like, how can

419
00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:52,679
Speaker 1: I not beat them at these numbers? But yeah, uh,

420
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:55,680
Speaker 1: we'll see what happens. I hope we get that late steam.

421
00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,200
Speaker 1: All right, Let's move on to the final match of

422
00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:01,160
Speaker 1: the ten am window. Manchester City coming off that lux

423
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:05,159
Speaker 1: Box win against Red Star Belgrade hosting Nottingham Forest. They

424
00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:08,560
Speaker 1: are a minus seven hundred home favorite Forrest fourteen to

425
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:10,760
Speaker 1: one on the money line, with the draw at plus

426
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:13,119
Speaker 1: seven to fifty. Easiest pass on the board for me.

427
00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:16,400
Speaker 1: But but we've said it a couple of weeks now

428
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:21,040
Speaker 1: is Forest like kind of good, like betable good in

429
00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:23,960
Speaker 1: a match like this, Anthony maybe bad spot.

430
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:26,680
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah.

431
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:30,480
Speaker 2: I mean here's the thing. Opening day, you know, Forrest

432
00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:32,199
Speaker 2: had a bunch of injuries. But the team that they

433
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:34,800
Speaker 2: put out on Monday and I ended up betting them late.

434
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:36,880
Speaker 2: You know, the market came in and started to taking

435
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:38,240
Speaker 2: some money and I was looking at the lineup and

436
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:39,879
Speaker 2: I was like, this could be a good team. And

437
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:43,720
Speaker 2: you know with Hudson, Adoi and Tywo and Gibbs, White

438
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:47,080
Speaker 2: and sangare like, that is a very functional attack. And

439
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,520
Speaker 2: then they went out and had point seven expected goals

440
00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:53,320
Speaker 2: at home against Burnley and it was a pretty boring match.

441
00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:55,880
Speaker 2: I mean, the Chow goal was sick, but they didn't

442
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 2: do a ton. But you know, I think there was

443
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:02,400
Speaker 2: some encouraging signs in terms of you know, ball progression

444
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:05,600
Speaker 2: and becoming more of a quality team. But none of

445
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,159
Speaker 2: that really matters in this match because now, instead of

446
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:11,879
Speaker 2: you know, hosting Burnley, which is one of the easiest

447
00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:14,000
Speaker 2: fixtures of the season, they have the most difficult fixture

448
00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 2: in the world the way in Manchester City.

449
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,239
Speaker 3: So here's the thing.

450
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:24,400
Speaker 2: City have addressed their depth concerns Doku coming in Elite

451
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,159
Speaker 2: one on one Dribbley winger pretty much just plugged the

452
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 2: hole that they had there. And Alvarez and Foden have

453
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 2: taken bigger roles this year, and there's real questions about

454
00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:36,679
Speaker 2: like have they replaced the shot so did they get

455
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 2: from Debruna? Have they replaced the passing? But the interesting

456
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 2: thing to me here is that Force has actually been

457
00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:44,600
Speaker 2: a decent defensive team thus far.

458
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 3: How I don't know.

459
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:48,639
Speaker 2: They've been much more passive than they were last year.

460
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:52,119
Speaker 2: Remember there was some matches earlier last year when Forrest

461
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 2: was legitimately trying to force the issue, trying to play

462
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,400
Speaker 2: soccer and trying to make things happen, and they kind

463
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:01,920
Speaker 2: of got exposed and then slowly started to bunker a

464
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:05,119
Speaker 2: little more. We've seen a much more bunker version of

465
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:07,679
Speaker 2: Forest thus far this season. I think it's why they

466
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 2: struggled with Burnley, and I think it's why they've been

467
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:14,240
Speaker 2: competitive with United. Arsenal covered all these big spreads.

468
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 3: So it's two and a quarter right now, two and

469
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 3: a half. I will bet not aam Forrest if we

470
00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:21,040
Speaker 3: get there.

471
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:24,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, at two and a quarter, I want a little more.

472
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 2: So that's my current you know situation. You know, city's

473
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 2: not a great spot, but like how bad of a spot?

474
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:33,359
Speaker 2: I mean, they won at home, then they're playing at

475
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 2: home again. It's not really like a travel situation. And

476
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 2: you know, so I'm not too worried about they had.

477
00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:43,959
Speaker 2: They played Tuesday, not Wednesday, so any potential hangovers kind

478
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 2: of out of the picture. And it was not a

479
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:48,200
Speaker 2: difficult match. I mean it was basically a training session

480
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 2: against Belgrade. They had forty shots, so attack and defend

481
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,359
Speaker 2: training session that they won three to one. Sorry about

482
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:57,479
Speaker 2: your bet forty one to one.

483
00:22:57,520 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 3: I mean it's a fun one. You got your money.

484
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 3: You got your money.

485
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:02,399
Speaker 1: That's all I wanted was a moment, and I got

486
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 1: my And then you got.

487
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:06,200
Speaker 2: A whole fifteen minutes of halftime to stew on it

488
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 2: and think about.

489
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 3: And that's the dream.

490
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 1: Is the dream? Now?

491
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,640
Speaker 3: Fifteen minute halftime You're like, wow, this could happen.

492
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:14,600
Speaker 2: Just like what if this goalie just never but if

493
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 2: this goalie becomes becomes Yon Sommer for forty.

494
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:18,920
Speaker 3: Five minutes, you know what the thing is.

495
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:21,880
Speaker 1: And not to go on a big diet drive legacy games,

496
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 1: but like if you're gonna hit one of those he

497
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:27,120
Speaker 1: needed a lot of luck. Red Star was getting every

498
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 1: single bounce in the first half, like every single shot

499
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:31,879
Speaker 1: was going the right of the keeper. He's making crazy saves.

500
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:34,399
Speaker 1: How it hit the crossbar, Like just every bounce that

501
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 1: we needed went went our way. And then yeah, you know,

502
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 1: and then what happened happened like it was supposed to do.

503
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 2: They did cover though, which is good, but plus three

504
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:44,400
Speaker 2: was truly never in doubt.

505
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 1: No, I was getting nervous towards the end. I mean,

506
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,639
Speaker 1: at least for a push. Yeah, I mean you mentioned

507
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:51,399
Speaker 1: with Forrests, like the one of the things you know,

508
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 1: we talked about all the time when we're evaluating teams

509
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:56,200
Speaker 1: that like Tolay passive low blocks is what's your final

510
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,360
Speaker 1: third box entry conversion? Like how good are you at

511
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 1: keeping opponents out of your penalty area? Forst is first

512
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:05,399
Speaker 1: in the Premier League this year, they've conceded what two

513
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,720
Speaker 1: big scoring chances all all season top five and shots

514
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:12,440
Speaker 1: allowed for ninety Like this defense is is kind of good.

515
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,359
Speaker 1: Like they've played United and they've played Arsenal Like this

516
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:18,160
Speaker 1: is not like they've just been playing a cake schedule.

517
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 1: So yeah, for me, I'm just passing. I'm right around

518
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,359
Speaker 1: with the market is I'll see, I'll see what happens.

519
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 1: But uh, I mean City is eventually going to lose

520
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,120
Speaker 1: at some point. Maybe they won't. Maybe they'll just win

521
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 1: every single match until the end of time.

522
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 2: Well, they're gonna have to play real teams first. I mean,

523
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 2: they've had the the they played Newcastle at home. That

524
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 2: was the only marginally difficult fixture they've had. I mean,

525
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 2: I mean, a way to west.

526
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 3: Ham is not easy.

527
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 1: But they're gonna lipstick next.

528
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 3: We don't. We're not that high on west Ham.

529
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:47,440
Speaker 2: So they got Leipstick in the Champions League in two weeks.

530
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,719
Speaker 3: I saw the opening number. We're gonna betting Leipsig at home.

531
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 3: Just put that out there.

532
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 1: Yes, I mean, all right, let's move on. Of course,

533
00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:59,359
Speaker 1: we got to have this match as the headliner. This

534
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 1: is like a almost kind of like a podcast Darby

535
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:07,920
Speaker 1: in a way, I guess Brentford hosting Michael's Everton. Brentford's

536
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 1: a minus one twenty five home favorite. Everton's sitting at

537
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:13,919
Speaker 1: plus three twenty with a draw at plus two eighty. Honestly,

538
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:15,720
Speaker 1: when I looked at this to begin with, I was like,

539
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,160
Speaker 1: this number's kind of short. On Brentford given what they've

540
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:21,359
Speaker 1: done so far in this Premier League season, but end

541
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 1: up burning the numbers and that it's pretty close to

542
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:24,200
Speaker 1: the market. But I do like a total here, but

543
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 1: I'll let you go first and in case you have

544
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:26,920
Speaker 1: something for this match, well.

545
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,959
Speaker 2: Diis pulled the old switcheroob on us Sunday. I mean,

546
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:33,720
Speaker 2: that match sucked. It was terrible, awful soccer. And we

547
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:35,920
Speaker 2: talked about that a little bit in the Champions League show.

548
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 2: So I won't get two into it, but you know,

549
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 2: we talked about from an Arsenal perspective, from an Everton perspective.

550
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:44,160
Speaker 2: It was interesting because, okay, you're hosting a Big six team,

551
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 2: you're hosting one of the best teams in the league.

552
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:47,920
Speaker 2: Everton has done that in different ways in the last

553
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 2: few years. They've gone to Brighton and been on the

554
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,200
Speaker 2: front foot. They've hosted Arsenal and been on the front foot.

555
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 2: They've tried to go to Arsenal and do that. They've

556
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 2: played Liverpool in a match where that was pretty diabolical.

557
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,320
Speaker 2: You know, they went very defensive. So we've seen dis

558
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:03,920
Speaker 2: kind of go back and forth here and I thought

559
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 2: the approach was interesting. You know, you have to monitor

560
00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 2: the injuries here though, because Betto was okay, but this

561
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 2: attack is short. They don't have enough talent on the pitch.

562
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 2: They need to get dcl, they need to get Jack Harrison.

563
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:16,960
Speaker 2: That is when I will be looking to once again

564
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 2: one more time by Everton. You know they pushed last week,

565
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:22,200
Speaker 2: but this is not the spot for me. Brentford is

566
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 2: too disciplined, too good on set pieces, and too good

567
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 2: at everything Everton purports to try to be. You know,

568
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 2: they're kind of the more talented version of Frank Ball

569
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 2: is the more talented version of what Dice is running

570
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 2: over at Everton anyway. So I'm going to go and

571
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 2: pass here, just straight up past it. I get the

572
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:40,919
Speaker 2: point for the over. I know how bad Everton's defense

573
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 2: has been. I know that the attack should score more.

574
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 2: But Brentford and in favorite roles, tends to be lower event,

575
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 2: and Dice would play out a lower event match too,

576
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 2: So I'm going to be far away from the total two.

577
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I projected two point nine for this, so I

578
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:57,440
Speaker 1: will be on over two and a half.

579
00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 2: I project overvalue too. That's the thing, but I'm saying

580
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 2: like I just don't.

581
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the thing is I you know, it's it's

582
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:06,159
Speaker 1: kind of a question mark of what dy just gonna do.

583
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 1: I don't you know, in this type of role, I

584
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,440
Speaker 1: don't see him being the type to just sit back

585
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 1: and do what he did against Arsenal. Like I think

586
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:19,880
Speaker 1: that instance was very conducive to what happened both times

587
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 1: they faced Arsenal last season, where first match season they

588
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:24,640
Speaker 1: came out and pressed him and blitzed him and took

589
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 1: Arsenal live surprise, and then the second meeting they try

590
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 1: to do it again. It didn't work. So now he

591
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 1: was probably thinking, Okay, I can't try that a third time.

592
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:35,120
Speaker 1: I'm gonna get blitzed again, So he played more passive

593
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,879
Speaker 1: and honestly like it was a terrible match, but like

594
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 1: at least they didn't give up five or six goals,

595
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:42,239
Speaker 1: like you know, they held Arsenal to one point three,

596
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:43,920
Speaker 1: so I mean, you can't really like they had a

597
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 1: couple half chances. I think the match, a match like

598
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 1: this will play out more similarly to the one that

599
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:53,960
Speaker 1: we saw against Sheffield United, where Averton was more on

600
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 1: the front foot, where they were more trying to break

601
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 1: down low blocks. Because it doesn't really make much sense.

602
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:01,200
Speaker 1: I mean you can just give Brentford the ball and

603
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:02,880
Speaker 1: be like, here, Brentford, why don't you try to break

604
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 1: us down and we'll try to play you in transition.

605
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 1: But Everton, I mean, Brentford is a really good transitional team,

606
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:09,919
Speaker 1: like they can they can defend you really well there.

607
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 1: So turning them over high doing what essentially Bournemouth did them,

608
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 1: which is getting those turnovers and catching Brentford out of position,

609
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:21,119
Speaker 1: is the best route to actually beating Brentford. So I

610
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:23,199
Speaker 1: think that's what they're going to do. And I mean

611
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 1: Brentford's been really impressive this season, I mean without Tony, Yeah,

612
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 1: ten point seven expected goals, Like I know, they've had

613
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:32,200
Speaker 1: a couple of penalties in there. They they've created the

614
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 1: most expected goals off a set pieces. That's no surprise.

615
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 1: And I've said this with Everton's high pressing, is that yes,

616
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 1: they have forced the fifth most high turnovers, but they'll

617
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 1: have a pass per defensive action of fourteen sixteenth and

618
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 1: build up completion percentage allowed. Like that tells me that

619
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:49,479
Speaker 1: once you beat the first line of defense, like it's

620
00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 1: just acres of space and you can really get at

621
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 1: this Everton defense. So you know, in the Everton offense,

622
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 1: like we say every single week, is overdue to score

623
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 1: born or excuse me a Bournemuth. Renford just lost Rico Henry,

624
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 1: which is a substantial loss for them in wide areas

625
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:07,720
Speaker 1: which Everton has attempted the third most crosses and that's

626
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 1: how they generate a lot of their offense, so they

627
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 1: could get at Brentford there. But yeah, simple projection edge

628
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 1: here two point nine expected goals. I don't think we'll

629
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:19,959
Speaker 1: see what we saw with Dyitch against Arsenal. I mean,

630
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 1: if he comes out and does it again, then I'll

631
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 1: have to readjust some numbers and reduce some things. But

632
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 1: as it stands right now, I do not think he's

633
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:27,960
Speaker 1: going to do that. So over two and a half

634
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 1: at minus one ten for me, all right, And then

635
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 1: let's move on to the final match of Saturday, Burnley

636
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 1: at Turf Moore hosting Manchester United. Burnley at plus three

637
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 1: thirty home underdog Manchester United minus won forty three on

638
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 1: the road, already taken some money after their defeat against

639
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 1: Byron today and the draw sitting at plus three twenty.

640
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:55,760
Speaker 1: I'll be honest, when I initially looked at this, it

641
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 1: just screamed over to me, and if you follow me

642
00:29:57,960 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 1: the app, I have bet over three goals at plus

643
00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 1: one six. But man, it is it is really hard

644
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 1: for me, with all the problems in Manchester United right now,

645
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 1: not to stare at Burnley at plus three thirty three

646
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 1: and take them. Do you think that they have any

647
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 1: chance in this match? Or do you think the United's

648
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 1: problems extend here and they and they get upset again

649
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 1: and you know what is now their third match in

650
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 1: seven days.

651
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the injured list is crazy right now,

652
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 2: between injured, slash suspended, slash in trouble, whatever the hell

653
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 2: you away from the team, Anthony Sancho Mount that's the

654
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 2: attacking group.

655
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 3: Omurbat not fit.

656
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 1: You know.

657
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 2: Then defensively, the only guys they have are the dudes

658
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 2: they played today plus Johnny Evans. They had five available

659
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 2: defenders and the traveling squad Bayern Munich. And it's not

660
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 2: like they're bringing five for you know, classy defenders.

661
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:54,360
Speaker 1: Here.

662
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 2: We're talking about Sergio Regulon, who doesn't know it was

663
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 2: not a good defender at Tottenham North Sevilla. We're talking

664
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 2: about Diego Dalo, who's definitely an attack first right back.

665
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:07,080
Speaker 2: Victor lindelof Losandro. Martinez has been terrible. I mean he

666
00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 2: looks like he got cooked overnight, and so you know,

667
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 2: he was one of the best center backs in the

668
00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:12,720
Speaker 2: league first half of the.

669
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 3: Season last year. He's not been good since.

670
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 2: I'd argue, like April for United and the result of

671
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 2: that is just a really bad defense. And I mean,

672
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:24,160
Speaker 2: look at Byron did today. It wasn't any different. I

673
00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 2: mean Byron, I actually thought United started well first twenty

674
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 2: twenty five minutes. You know, Byron didn't take a shot

675
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:32,360
Speaker 2: until the nineteenth minute, so the defensive press was doing

676
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 2: a good job. They were fine out of possession, but

677
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 2: eventually they started to wear down. And once you got

678
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 2: to that second half, it was just Byron the wingers

679
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 2: walking into the penalty area Musiolla getting in. I mean

680
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 2: he dribbled the whole team at one point, like it

681
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 2: was really bad, how much they wilted, and it was

682
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 2: a Casimiro Erickson pivot, you know, police street playing right wing.

683
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 3: I mean, it's just not a good team right now.

684
00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 2: So you know, if you like Burnley, I think it

685
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 2: has to be on the money line, chase the high

686
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 2: variance outcomes. You know, United's attack looked decent today, but again,

687
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 2: uh yeah, it would be over nothing for me too.

688
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 2: But I'm passing here, I think and duty it has

689
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 2: been impressive. He's put up some really good numbers early

690
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 2: for Burnley too. I think that the question mark is though, like,

691
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 2: at what point do we by low? Because I didn't

692
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 2: think it was today. I don't think it's Saturday. But

693
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 2: eventually they will come a time where they're going to

694
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 2: start to get players back. I can see myself being

695
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:34,479
Speaker 2: a man United better in the future, but I mean

696
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 2: there's still so much market respect. Tottenham was minus one

697
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 2: ten against Burnley three weeks ago. This United team is

698
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 2: minus one thirty five with these injuries.

699
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not saying them by low.

700
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 3: The Tottenham and United.

701
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 2: I have Tottenham slightly better right now with injuries.

702
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 3: It's a little bigger.

703
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, so serious. The United's ucoming schedule. After Burnley, they

704
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:59,360
Speaker 1: have a EFL Cup match against Palace, and they play

705
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 1: Palace again and both matches are at Old Trafford in

706
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:04,760
Speaker 1: the Premier And they.

707
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 3: Host Palace this weekend.

708
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:06,960
Speaker 1: Next next week, yeah, they host Palace, then they host

709
00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 1: galatass Rye We again.

710
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 3: We again a goal plus there.

711
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,480
Speaker 1: United is sitting at around minus one seventy five minus

712
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:18,480
Speaker 1: one eighty right now goals, we're getting one goal and

713
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 1: then they host after gallatass right, they host Brentford, then

714
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 1: they go to Sheffield United and then they.

715
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 2: We're not We're not betting the next couple of weeks,

716
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 2: that's for sure.

717
00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I get open and the Champions League, which I'm

718
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 1: not going to take them.

719
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 3: Are they at Copenhagen?

720
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:34,240
Speaker 1: And then they're hosting Manchester City and the Manchester Derby.

721
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 4: Like there's that's the that'll Here's I mean, we've been

722
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:42,160
Speaker 4: talking about this forever with United, but here's like what

723
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 4: really boiled down to me with especially not even today

724
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 4: against Byron because Byron is Byron, but the match against

725
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:51,480
Speaker 4: Brighton I thought was it was very very clear what

726
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:53,720
Speaker 4: the problem has been for a very very long time,

727
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 4: and it even goes all the way.

728
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 1: Back back to Ralph Ragnet, is that Manchester United is

729
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 1: just not a good pressing team and with the personnel

730
00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:03,760
Speaker 1: that they have right now, it's never going to be

731
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 1: that because what you saw against Brighton is that Marcus

732
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 1: Rashford doesn't press like he like the whole they try

733
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:11,880
Speaker 1: to press in Unison with their front four, you know

734
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:14,719
Speaker 1: in the four two three one. But if Rashford is

735
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:16,840
Speaker 1: just going to be a passenger essentially is the quote

736
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:19,840
Speaker 1: that a lot of tactical people have used. Well, Brighton

737
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:21,840
Speaker 1: just overloaded that side of the pitch with you know,

738
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,400
Speaker 1: Dallo obviously playing out of position at left back, and

739
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 1: then they just cook them time and time again down

740
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 1: that down that wing. And you I mean you mentioned

741
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 1: today it happened.

742
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 3: Not sure Burnley does that.

743
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:37,320
Speaker 1: Burnley builds out of the back. They are a possession

744
00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 1: dominant team, so they will try and do that, and

745
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 1: I think that's what leads to a very conducive back

746
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 1: and forth type match here, because if it doesn't work

747
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 1: for United, well, then Burnley is gonna have a ton

748
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 1: of chances to run at this back line that, as

749
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 1: you mentioned, basically just has Losandra Martinez right now is

750
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:56,319
Speaker 1: their only starter. They usually would start along their back

751
00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 1: four and then if if the press actually works well

752
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 1: and they can turn Burnley over high, do what essentially

753
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:04,880
Speaker 1: Tottenham did to them and create a lot of chances

754
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:09,399
Speaker 1: going forward. But I believe it was the athletic put

755
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 1: out essentially a chart of Manchester United's rolling passes per

756
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:16,720
Speaker 1: defensive action going all the way back to Ole gunnsol

757
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:20,320
Speaker 1: sharp and obviously Ola didn't press Pie a lot, you know,

758
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 1: comparatively to what you know managers are doing. Now. Manchester

759
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 1: United has never been under a ten passes per defensive action,

760
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 1: which would be considered elite in terms of you know,

761
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 1: in terms of the Premier League. Never in the whole

762
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 1: span of Ralph Ragnick to Eric ten Hogg never been

763
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:40,760
Speaker 1: below ten. So that just tells me that they're pressed

764
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 1: is not intense enough to what they are actually trying

765
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:45,320
Speaker 1: to do, which is why teams have been able to

766
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 1: play through them. You can say injuries have played apart.

767
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 1: You can say, you know, Casimiro being out in an

768
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 1: extended period of time last year due to injuries and

769
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:54,840
Speaker 1: suspensions plays a part of it. But the reality is

770
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:57,920
Speaker 1: is that the personnel that they have just can't be

771
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:00,319
Speaker 1: an elite high pressing team, which is why they keep

772
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:02,719
Speaker 1: getting played through time and time again. Now Burnley is

773
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 1: the exact does the exact thing where they have been

774
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:08,239
Speaker 1: pressing with front threes and front fours and just not

775
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 1: being able to close down good build up teams. Now

776
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 1: I wouldn't say United, it's a good build up team

777
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 1: at this stage, but they've shown that in transition they

778
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:16,359
Speaker 1: can be very deadly now with oil and playing up top,

779
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:18,840
Speaker 1: So I think this is going to can lead itself

780
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:22,840
Speaker 1: to a very conducive, back and forth type match. So

781
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:26,000
Speaker 1: I didn't project a you know, a ton of edge

782
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 1: on this. Really I protected right around three goals, which

783
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 1: is usually taking to a lot of Burnley's you know,

784
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 1: defensive metrics from the Championship Championship which were really good.

785
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 1: But what we've seen through the first four matches, you know,

786
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:42,759
Speaker 1: when they've played against City and Tottenham and h who's

787
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:45,600
Speaker 1: in Villa excuse and Villa excuse me, they've really struggled

788
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 1: to disrupt build up play. So I do like over

789
00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:51,120
Speaker 1: three goals at plus one oh six here, and if you,

790
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:54,800
Speaker 1: like you said, if you're gonna bet Burnley on the

791
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:56,520
Speaker 1: money line, got to chase a big number here with

792
00:36:56,600 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 1: the problems that United has. Okay, let's move on to Sunday,

793
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:04,920
Speaker 1: which is actually a pretty good slate. This is a

794
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 1: good Sunday, is going to be fun.

795
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 2: All the best, the four best matches at the weekend

796
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 2: that I'm most looking forward to watching all at the

797
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 2: same time, including the Derby, which means I won't be

798
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:14,959
Speaker 2: able to watch all of them, which is very.

799
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:21,759
Speaker 1: Fresh Eastern time. Let's start with Brighton hosting Oh yeah,

800
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 1: Bourne myth. We are going to be on opposite sides here,

801
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:28,840
Speaker 1: Brighton sitting at minus two seventy five, Bournemuth at plus

802
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 1: six point fifty with a draw at plus four twenty five.

803
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:35,560
Speaker 1: You do actually like Ariola against Deserbe here, I'm potentially

804
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 1: maybe covering a spread.

805
00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:39,239
Speaker 3: Yep, yep.

806
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 2: I'm gonna do something that's sacrilegious. I'm gonna do something

807
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 2: that's disgusting. I'm gonna do something that I hate to do,

808
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:48,080
Speaker 2: and I'm gonna bet against the Brighton and Hove Albion seagulls.

809
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:53,799
Speaker 2: I think when you look at you know the kind

810
00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 2: of situations where I want to look to bet against Brighton,

811
00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:00,400
Speaker 2: it is going to be in these spots as overwhelming

812
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:04,759
Speaker 2: favorites because their defense is so flawed. And we have

813
00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 2: discussed this on the show, but they are on pace

814
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:10,239
Speaker 2: to give up over fifty five expected goals this year,

815
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:13,359
Speaker 2: which is bad. And I'm not gonna sugarcoat it. I'm

816
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:15,279
Speaker 2: not gonna use game state. And you could you could

817
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:17,160
Speaker 2: spin a you could spin a web. Look, I've thought

818
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 2: about this a lot because I want to spin the

819
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:23,399
Speaker 2: web on Brighton. They have been extremely good finishing wise.

820
00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:27,200
Speaker 2: Imagine saying that by the way they have they have Metoma,

821
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:31,560
Speaker 2: who's awesome, Stupi and Yon like, there's so much fun

822
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 2: attacking progressive talent ball winning.

823
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 3: The thirty past.

824
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:38,960
Speaker 2: Sequence that they put together on Men United was amazing.

825
00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:43,279
Speaker 2: But they are flawed defensively and when they're laying more

826
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:45,480
Speaker 2: than a goal to west Ham, when they're laying more

827
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 2: than a goal and a half now to Bournemouth, keep

828
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 2: in mind, and this is how much the market I

829
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 2: think has moved. Opening Day, I was happily ready to

830
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 2: bet Brighton minus one and a half at home against

831
00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:56,400
Speaker 2: Lutontown because that is a ridiculous price they should be

832
00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:59,759
Speaker 2: laying too. Because Lutontown is the worst team in the league.

833
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:00,799
Speaker 3: I still think they are.

834
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:03,719
Speaker 2: But I don't and this comes down to Bournemouth too.

835
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 2: I don't think Bournemouth is the worst team in the league.

836
00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:07,239
Speaker 2: I don't think Burnemouth is even a bottom four or

837
00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:11,360
Speaker 2: five team. If you schedule adjust their numbers, they are

838
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:13,520
Speaker 2: still in the bottom five and expected goald difference and

839
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 2: Michael Kayley from the Double Pivot podcast.

840
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:16,839
Speaker 1: Great Twitter follow if.

841
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 3: You're in analytics and soccer.

842
00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:21,920
Speaker 2: He did a really good tweet where he he did

843
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:24,920
Speaker 2: an analytics as He's as he called it, and he

844
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 2: schedule adjusted all five matches and said, let's create a

845
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 2: different table adjusted expected goal difference per match, just based

846
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:35,759
Speaker 2: on who you've played and how you've performed. Bournemouth was

847
00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 2: minus point six per ninety. Brighton was plus point two

848
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:44,239
Speaker 2: seven per ninety. If you roll in at home field,

849
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 2: it still doesn't get you to one and a half.

850
00:39:46,080 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 2: And I think Bournemouth has the chance to play better

851
00:39:48,160 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 2: because they're they're getting healthier. The injury report at the

852
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:53,120
Speaker 2: beginning of the season was seven eight players long. Now

853
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 2: we're down to pretty much just Tyler Adams, who probably

854
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:58,400
Speaker 2: won't play on Sunday but has a chance to make

855
00:39:58,480 --> 00:39:58,799
Speaker 2: the team.

856
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 3: I would be surprised if he he was available.

857
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 2: But the defensive pressing can disrupt Brighton and create enough

858
00:40:07,080 --> 00:40:09,919
Speaker 2: transition opportunities for them to go and look. I thought

859
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 2: it was impressive what they did against Chelsea. I know

860
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:14,440
Speaker 2: they conceded about one and a half expected goals, but

861
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:17,160
Speaker 2: in the late stages of that match they were able

862
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:20,200
Speaker 2: to continue to press, bring on new players to press,

863
00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:23,440
Speaker 2: and had numerous chances to win that match late.

864
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 3: So it's a team that's not.

865
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 2: Gonna run out of gas the team. You know, we've

866
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:33,239
Speaker 2: seen Brighton become incredibly good as front runners, but we've

867
00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:35,160
Speaker 2: also seen Brighton play Wolves where they were up one

868
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:37,359
Speaker 2: nil and then Wolves had chance to chance to cut

869
00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:39,520
Speaker 2: into the lead and miss their chances.

870
00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:40,280
Speaker 3: We've seen.

871
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:46,120
Speaker 2: West Ham I mean that match notwithstanding. So I'm gonna

872
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 2: play against Brighton, I'm gonna do it.

873
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:48,719
Speaker 3: Cherry's plus one and a half.

874
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:52,520
Speaker 1: I'm not. I'm gonna take Brighton minus one and a half.

875
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 1: And I think there are some not I wouldn't say

876
00:40:57,719 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 1: like real tactical flaws with Bourne myth, but enough flaws

877
00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:05,279
Speaker 1: where we're transitioning from a defensive, low block system to

878
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:08,400
Speaker 1: a pressing system where right now, when they've been playing

879
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:11,400
Speaker 1: elite build up sides, they have struggled. So if you

880
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:15,120
Speaker 1: key in and on their match against Liverpool, yes, they

881
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:17,080
Speaker 1: forced a high turnover right off the right of the

882
00:41:17,120 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 1: gates scored it was a great moment. But after that,

883
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:24,440
Speaker 1: what Liverpool started to do is that since Bournemouth really

884
00:41:24,440 --> 00:41:26,480
Speaker 1: doesn't man mark press, you it's more of a zonal

885
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 1: trapping type press. Liverpool just started kind of drifting Trent

886
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:33,479
Speaker 1: Alexander Arnold dot wide. Usually he inverts in the middle

887
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:34,960
Speaker 1: of the pitch, and what they were trying to do

888
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 1: is Philip Billing is the main guy in the center

889
00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:39,800
Speaker 1: of the pitch that has to defend essentially two guys

890
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:41,680
Speaker 1: because you know, elite build up teams will put two

891
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:43,239
Speaker 1: guys in the middle of the pitch to create a

892
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:45,360
Speaker 1: numerical advantage and try to play through the middle of

893
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:47,399
Speaker 1: the pitch, which is the best option if you're trying

894
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 1: to break a press. Liverpool started putting Trent Alexander Arnot

895
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:53,640
Speaker 1: wide and they just started cooking them in wide areas

896
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:56,319
Speaker 1: a time and time and time again. And that made

897
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:58,880
Speaker 1: me think about what Brighton just did in Manchester United

898
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 1: where they were starting to overload and Marcus Rashford's side

899
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 1: of the pitch and just cooking them time and time

900
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 1: and time again. And listen, Brighton, they're very aggressive and

901
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:09,719
Speaker 1: I agree with you, like there is a scenario where

902
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 1: Bournemouth turns them over high and they create a bunch

903
00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:14,959
Speaker 1: of chances like they did against Brentford, and or turns

904
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:16,880
Speaker 1: them over high like they did against Liverpool. That scenario

905
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:20,360
Speaker 1: is perfectly possible here. But what we've seen from Brighton

906
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:22,840
Speaker 1: is that going back to last season, they've been the

907
00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:24,800
Speaker 1: best team of playing through pressure. Like They've made a

908
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 1: couple of mistakes here and there, but by the whole

909
00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:30,440
Speaker 1: sample size of what we've seen, they were number one

910
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:32,919
Speaker 1: in offensive pass per defensive action going from last season.

911
00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:35,239
Speaker 1: They're still top four this year if they are going

912
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:37,759
Speaker 1: to I also saw something that's very very funny and

913
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:42,120
Speaker 1: very deservey. Someone put out a percentage of goalkicks that

914
00:42:42,760 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 1: go along or don't Brighton is literally at zero. They

915
00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 1: have not sent one goal kick long. It's quite insane.

916
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 1: So they are going to baits Bournemouth and depressing them,

917
00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:57,319
Speaker 1: which I think is an incredibly dangerous game to play

918
00:42:57,920 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 1: if you are born with and one that I think

919
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:03,759
Speaker 1: Brighton can absolutely rip them apart if they get through

920
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:06,239
Speaker 1: that first line of the defense. And I get it,

921
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:09,000
Speaker 1: like you know, the market has gone a little bit

922
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 1: higher here on Brighton. They are playing on Thursday against

923
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:13,799
Speaker 1: ak Athens in the Europa League. That's the home match though,

924
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:15,880
Speaker 1: so there will be no travel for them, and they

925
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 1: are getting healthy as well. They had you know, going

926
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:20,480
Speaker 1: into the United match, like Evan Ferguson was questionable, Danny

927
00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:25,520
Speaker 1: Wellback was questionable. Well now they're basically healthy, so they

928
00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:27,160
Speaker 1: have a ton of depth too as well. So I

929
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:30,239
Speaker 1: don't think depth is really a concern here with playing

930
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:34,400
Speaker 1: a match on Thursday and then on Sunday. I mean Bourne,

931
00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:39,200
Speaker 1: with the three matches that they've played against Tottenham, against

932
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:44,160
Speaker 1: Liverpool and against Chelsea, I mean they have conceded six

933
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:47,200
Speaker 1: point nine expected goals and those teams have just I mean,

934
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:49,279
Speaker 1: if you look at Connor Gallagher's like positioning in the

935
00:43:49,320 --> 00:43:51,760
Speaker 1: midfield against Chelsea, like he was finding acres of space

936
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:54,360
Speaker 1: by playing in behind them, by like basically just standing

937
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:56,800
Speaker 1: still and letting guys like roam and let the press

938
00:43:57,160 --> 00:43:59,760
Speaker 1: like come in. Like Brighton is so good of manipulating

939
00:43:59,800 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 1: that press and so good at overloading and finding those

940
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:04,279
Speaker 1: areas to get through. So they're going to bait them,

941
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:05,920
Speaker 1: and I think that they are going to absolutely rip

942
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:08,080
Speaker 1: them aparts. But we'll see what happened.

943
00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:09,640
Speaker 3: Look, I think they will too.

944
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 2: I just think they're going to concede a goal or

945
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 2: two and that's it's gonna be really hard to lay

946
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:14,200
Speaker 2: a goal and a half if you're conceding a goal

947
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:16,839
Speaker 2: every match, that's my thinking. Like, I think it's very

948
00:44:16,920 --> 00:44:19,719
Speaker 2: hard for them to be laying this big number against again.

949
00:44:19,800 --> 00:44:21,960
Speaker 2: You know, Bournemouth's had their defensive issues, but let's let's

950
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:24,640
Speaker 2: give them their due. They have produced one expected goal

951
00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:26,840
Speaker 2: in four of their five matches and that includes games

952
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:30,399
Speaker 2: against you know, Liverpool and against you know other good

953
00:44:30,440 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 2: teams Tottenham, Chelsea, so you know, Brentford they had over two.

954
00:44:35,160 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 2: So this has been a good team at times, not

955
00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:39,960
Speaker 2: a great team. I don't think they're good, you know,

956
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 2: but I'm I'm buying the progression under Areola. I'm betting

957
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:45,800
Speaker 2: on the manager and uh yeah, I think this is

958
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:47,880
Speaker 2: going to be a rousing three to two Brighton victory.

959
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:50,719
Speaker 3: I would love. I want the goals to win.

960
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:51,920
Speaker 2: I just hope that they're going to cover the one

961
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:53,880
Speaker 2: and a half. So hopefully it's a close one and

962
00:44:54,120 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 2: uh you know, it will feel sick the whole match,

963
00:44:58,120 --> 00:45:03,279
Speaker 2: but I'll be watching Tottenham lose, so in the meantime hopefully, Yeah,

964
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:06,399
Speaker 2: the goals going against him for sure. By the way,

965
00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:10,839
Speaker 2: Leaboff is not here, he would be with money, would

966
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:15,880
Speaker 2: yeah seven to one Brighton all it takes is one

967
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 2: cold day and they've been running really hot.

968
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, yeah, all right, we'll see we're going

969
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:21,480
Speaker 1: all along.

970
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:23,440
Speaker 3: So I still love our goals, though, don't worry.

971
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:26,320
Speaker 2: We need to get knocked down a peg win close.

972
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:28,160
Speaker 2: You know, maybe the market will downgrade us a little bit.

973
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:30,759
Speaker 2: And then I have the schedule, but I'm sure there's

974
00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:31,359
Speaker 2: gonna be right.

975
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 1: Still on the road next which and they're a straight

976
00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:34,160
Speaker 1: pick them.

977
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:38,239
Speaker 2: So okay, so we're not betting brighton that day. And

978
00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:42,520
Speaker 2: then we go we go to we go to Marseille,

979
00:45:42,680 --> 00:45:45,719
Speaker 2: we host Liverpool, so and when we go to City

980
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:47,560
Speaker 2: so I'll tell you what the fixtures are about to

981
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:49,880
Speaker 2: get a lot harder. That'll be really good, all right,

982
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:51,320
Speaker 2: We're gonna learn a lot about the goals.

983
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:54,440
Speaker 1: Yep. Speaking of aston Villa, they're going on the road

984
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:56,160
Speaker 1: to face Chelsea on Sunday.

985
00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:57,319
Speaker 3: We have to talk about Chelsea.

986
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:02,360
Speaker 1: We skip and the draws of plus two seventy. This

987
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:04,600
Speaker 1: is the time. This is the time to builo on

988
00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:09,320
Speaker 1: Chelsea if there ever was one. I mean, what what

989
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:12,200
Speaker 1: more can you say other than they just can't finish

990
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 1: like every I you know, there's been like I feel

991
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:17,920
Speaker 1: like there's been like seventeen different articles oubt that have

992
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 1: came out this week saying like everything's fine with Chelsea,

993
00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:23,520
Speaker 1: like no need to worry, uh, which I you know,

994
00:46:23,800 --> 00:46:25,799
Speaker 1: looking into a lot of their numbers, you can say, yeah,

995
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 1: there's you know, the process is there, like the poach

996
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:31,799
Speaker 1: Tina ball is like starting to take take its form,

997
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:34,359
Speaker 1: like there have been a an elite high pressing team,

998
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:38,239
Speaker 1: Like they're controlling possession, like they're they're getting chances, they

999
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:43,760
Speaker 1: just can't score and you know, ten point two expected

1000
00:46:43,840 --> 00:46:46,920
Speaker 1: goals scored five, So you could say, you know, a

1001
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:50,440
Speaker 1: positive aggression. But what I am you know, more encouraged

1002
00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:53,839
Speaker 1: by is that not only they're in possession numbers where

1003
00:46:54,480 --> 00:46:56,400
Speaker 1: they are top three and a lot of you know,

1004
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:58,960
Speaker 1: offensive metrics that we look at, but out of possession

1005
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:01,359
Speaker 1: where they're the number one, even pass per defensive action,

1006
00:47:01,480 --> 00:47:04,560
Speaker 1: where they're top three in expected throatle out, top three

1007
00:47:04,600 --> 00:47:07,560
Speaker 1: in field till like, these are the metrics that tell

1008
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:10,080
Speaker 1: us whether a team is trending in the right direction

1009
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 1: and being able to control possession and actually flip the

1010
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:15,680
Speaker 1: field on teams and be able to break down these

1011
00:47:15,680 --> 00:47:18,439
Speaker 1: type of low blocks. And I mean, for aston Villa,

1012
00:47:19,120 --> 00:47:21,520
Speaker 1: I think we need to kind of like aston Villa is,

1013
00:47:21,600 --> 00:47:25,400
Speaker 1: like they're like the perfect example of a team that

1014
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:28,800
Speaker 1: can really play well against bottom half table sides and

1015
00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:32,239
Speaker 1: just get absolutely cooked by the big boys because it

1016
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:34,960
Speaker 1: comes down to Uniamory's insistence, I'm playing out of the back.

1017
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:36,520
Speaker 1: They're just not good enough to play against the leade

1018
00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:38,319
Speaker 1: pressing sides and play out of the back. You saw

1019
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:41,440
Speaker 1: what happened against Newcastle, you saw against what happened against Liverpool.

1020
00:47:41,920 --> 00:47:43,680
Speaker 1: Chelsea can do the exact same thing to them. I

1021
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:45,800
Speaker 1: thought Chelsea was good against Bournemouth. I don't think that

1022
00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 1: they like you know, I thought for Lard. I mean,

1023
00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:49,600
Speaker 1: like you said, Bournmouth had the flurry at the end,

1024
00:47:49,640 --> 00:47:51,120
Speaker 1: but I thought for pretty much the most of the

1025
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:54,560
Speaker 1: match Chelsea controlled it well, created chances. You know, they

1026
00:47:54,719 --> 00:47:57,040
Speaker 1: just couldn't They just can't finish. I mean, that's really

1027
00:47:57,080 --> 00:47:59,439
Speaker 1: what it comes down to. So I did project Chelsea

1028
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:02,279
Speaker 1: at minus one twenty two. If there was ever a

1029
00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:05,960
Speaker 1: time to buy on them, I think it's now minus

1030
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:06,319
Speaker 1: one ten.

1031
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:09,040
Speaker 2: What do you think There has been some interesting buy

1032
00:48:09,160 --> 00:48:13,080
Speaker 2: off Chelsea this year in the market leading into matches

1033
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:16,839
Speaker 2: last two weeks. The market has steemed pretty hard against.

1034
00:48:16,560 --> 00:48:20,480
Speaker 3: Them, and those have been poor results. Lost to Forest,

1035
00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 3: draw with Bournemouth.

1036
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:26,279
Speaker 2: If you adjust though the schedule numbers, the KLi chart

1037
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:29,680
Speaker 2: that I talked about, Chelsea fifth plus zero point five

1038
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:32,320
Speaker 2: seven per ninety, which is good enough to be in

1039
00:48:32,520 --> 00:48:35,960
Speaker 2: the top four. They've been just pretty evenly good on

1040
00:48:36,080 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 2: both sides.

1041
00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:36,759
Speaker 3: Of the ball.

1042
00:48:37,280 --> 00:48:40,640
Speaker 2: Villa has been a bad defensive team, worse than Everton

1043
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:44,839
Speaker 2: next year, allowed, worse than Tottenham, worst, about as bad

1044
00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:49,319
Speaker 2: as Brighton, much worse than Forrest Palace, and almost as

1045
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 2: bad as Man United. So that's the defense we're talking

1046
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:56,040
Speaker 2: about here, based on schedule, and you know it's.

1047
00:48:56,360 --> 00:49:02,280
Speaker 3: The right yep. And Chelsea has the passers.

1048
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:04,000
Speaker 2: Do they have the finishers? We're about to find out

1049
00:49:04,000 --> 00:49:06,480
Speaker 2: they have the runners. Nico Jackson and Raz are the runners.

1050
00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:08,680
Speaker 2: So I think that if you're looking for a team

1051
00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:11,120
Speaker 2: to break down this this Villa team, you know Chelsea's

1052
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:14,520
Speaker 2: going to get their chances. And Chelsea and Villa played

1053
00:49:14,600 --> 00:49:16,960
Speaker 2: last year in the spring. It was potter ball was

1054
00:49:17,040 --> 00:49:18,600
Speaker 2: right before he got fired. It was one of the

1055
00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:21,279
Speaker 2: most dominant losses I've ever seen by a team in

1056
00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:21,959
Speaker 2: the Premier League.

1057
00:49:22,160 --> 00:49:25,520
Speaker 3: Chelsea turned them over over and over and over again.

1058
00:49:26,200 --> 00:49:29,160
Speaker 2: And got Soccered lost to now but completely dominated the match.

1059
00:49:29,239 --> 00:49:32,200
Speaker 2: It was amazing to see. So I think that there's

1060
00:49:32,239 --> 00:49:34,200
Speaker 2: going to be real problems for Villa here. I will

1061
00:49:34,200 --> 00:49:35,040
Speaker 2: be on the Blues as well.

1062
00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 1: Yeah. I also forgot to mention Villa traveling to Poland

1063
00:49:37,800 --> 00:49:40,760
Speaker 1: take take on leg A Warsaw in the Europa Conference

1064
00:49:40,880 --> 00:49:43,280
Speaker 1: League on Thursday as well. What we've seen from Emory

1065
00:49:43,560 --> 00:49:45,759
Speaker 1: in his you know, the matches against Hiberian when they

1066
00:49:45,880 --> 00:49:48,160
Speaker 1: had to play qualifications to get into the Europa Conference League,

1067
00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:51,480
Speaker 1: didn't really rotate too many guys, so I'm expecting it.

1068
00:49:51,960 --> 00:49:54,440
Speaker 2: It's not the first leg they were five, No, they rotated,

1069
00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:55,560
Speaker 2: not the first thing.

1070
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:57,920
Speaker 1: I think Diabi still played like like it was. It

1071
00:49:58,000 --> 00:50:00,839
Speaker 1: was pretty crazy, So I'm expect a full squad from

1072
00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:04,680
Speaker 1: them on Thursday. So not a great spot here for Villas.

1073
00:50:04,760 --> 00:50:08,200
Speaker 1: So great great BI low opportunity on Chelsea. All right,

1074
00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:10,520
Speaker 1: let's move on to the last match in the nine

1075
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:14,880
Speaker 1: a m window, Liverpool hosting west Ham. Liverpool's minus two

1076
00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:16,920
Speaker 1: fifty west Ham sitting at six to one, with the

1077
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:22,480
Speaker 1: draw at four to one, I think this is like

1078
00:50:22,640 --> 00:50:25,080
Speaker 1: one of the easier passes on the board.

1079
00:50:25,360 --> 00:50:29,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, like can West ham has just not been good defensively.

1080
00:50:29,680 --> 00:50:30,120
Speaker 1: They haven't.

1081
00:50:30,160 --> 00:50:31,399
Speaker 2: I don't care what then, I don't care how many

1082
00:50:31,480 --> 00:50:34,080
Speaker 2: goals they've conceded or what results they've gotten. They have

1083
00:50:34,200 --> 00:50:37,720
Speaker 2: been bad defensively period and that is something worth disgusting

1084
00:50:37,760 --> 00:50:40,080
Speaker 2: because they have now played you know, they played some

1085
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:43,520
Speaker 2: tough teams by Chelsea, they played City, they played you know,

1086
00:50:43,640 --> 00:50:47,080
Speaker 2: some some tough Matt Brighton. But just conceding a shit

1087
00:50:47,160 --> 00:50:49,120
Speaker 2: ton of chances and hoping they don't go in is

1088
00:50:49,239 --> 00:50:50,560
Speaker 2: not a viable strategy.

1089
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:52,280
Speaker 3: And Ariola has been awesome.

1090
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:54,920
Speaker 2: It's David Moy's baby and this year, look they deserve

1091
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:56,239
Speaker 2: it because they ran bad last year.

1092
00:50:56,239 --> 00:50:57,399
Speaker 3: This year they're having some run good.

1093
00:50:57,400 --> 00:51:01,120
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm enjoyed, you know, the Hammers excess, not really,

1094
00:51:01,280 --> 00:51:04,560
Speaker 2: but you know, it's been interesting and I don't really

1095
00:51:04,600 --> 00:51:07,160
Speaker 2: buy it. So I think Liverpool beats him pretty comfortably here,

1096
00:51:07,239 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 2: but you know what, Liverpool's been bad on set pieces.

1097
00:51:09,719 --> 00:51:12,200
Speaker 2: Van Dyk will be back, so hopefully that helps. Trent's

1098
00:51:12,239 --> 00:51:15,960
Speaker 2: probably not back, it seems. Don't think he's traveling for

1099
00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:19,160
Speaker 2: their Europa League and I also that means probably not

1100
00:51:19,200 --> 00:51:20,400
Speaker 2: going to play Sunday, but you never know.

1101
00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:22,719
Speaker 1: But yeah, pass for me, Yeah, easy pass, all right.

1102
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:25,240
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the final match, and of course

1103
00:51:26,080 --> 00:51:28,200
Speaker 1: we had to have this match as the headliner. Eleven

1104
00:51:28,360 --> 00:51:34,520
Speaker 1: thirty am Eastern Time on Sunday, Sheffield United hosting Newcastle.

1105
00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:37,960
Speaker 1: Sheffield United is at plus five fifty Newcastle minus two

1106
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:40,759
Speaker 1: to twenty three, the draw at plus three seventy five.

1107
00:51:41,600 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 1: It's passed for me. But I do see your angle

1108
00:51:44,719 --> 00:51:45,080
Speaker 1: here on.

1109
00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:48,920
Speaker 3: The under under three minus one eighteen second bet.

1110
00:51:48,960 --> 00:51:51,719
Speaker 2: I made this week after Palace bet at during the

1111
00:51:51,800 --> 00:51:54,279
Speaker 2: Milan match because I watched the same team just do

1112
00:51:54,400 --> 00:51:54,879
Speaker 2: the same thing.

1113
00:51:55,440 --> 00:51:55,600
Speaker 1: You know.

1114
00:51:56,280 --> 00:51:58,480
Speaker 2: It's when they play against teams who let them have

1115
00:51:58,560 --> 00:52:02,080
Speaker 2: the ball and settled possession they have really struggled.

1116
00:52:02,280 --> 00:52:03,440
Speaker 3: They struggled against Brentford.

1117
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:05,120
Speaker 2: They got a penalty, but they did not create any

1118
00:52:05,160 --> 00:52:08,399
Speaker 2: big scoring chances whatsoever in that match. When they played City,

1119
00:52:09,080 --> 00:52:11,799
Speaker 2: City was very passive against them, but this was an

1120
00:52:11,840 --> 00:52:13,840
Speaker 2: attack that did not create much. So as good as

1121
00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:16,320
Speaker 2: the defense is and has been and will continue to be,

1122
00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:18,239
Speaker 2: I think and I don't really see a ton of

1123
00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:20,520
Speaker 2: trouble for them defensively here, I think the attack is

1124
00:52:20,560 --> 00:52:23,160
Speaker 2: not getting margin anymore. I think that the success they

1125
00:52:23,239 --> 00:52:25,360
Speaker 2: had when playing up a goal last year is just

1126
00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:28,319
Speaker 2: that a last year thing that probably regretses this year,

1127
00:52:28,360 --> 00:52:29,759
Speaker 2: and they're not going to be quite as dominant as

1128
00:52:29,800 --> 00:52:30,360
Speaker 2: front runners.

1129
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:32,080
Speaker 3: Thus they're going to see.

1130
00:52:31,880 --> 00:52:35,120
Speaker 2: A lot more one nils and a lot more low scoring,

1131
00:52:35,239 --> 00:52:39,880
Speaker 2: grinded out affairs, and you know, the choices for attack

1132
00:52:40,000 --> 00:52:44,799
Speaker 2: continue to puzzle me. Where is Harvey Barnes, Like, why

1133
00:52:45,600 --> 00:52:48,200
Speaker 2: can they not play Esak and Wilson together, especially in

1134
00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:50,440
Speaker 2: this matchup against a bad team where they're going to

1135
00:52:50,520 --> 00:52:52,279
Speaker 2: have a lot of the ball, get more shots and

1136
00:52:52,320 --> 00:52:53,759
Speaker 2: creativity on the pitch, But they're not doing it.

1137
00:52:53,840 --> 00:52:54,799
Speaker 3: They're in the name of.

1138
00:52:54,840 --> 00:52:59,480
Speaker 2: Solidity because al Moron and Murphy and Gordon do so

1139
00:52:59,560 --> 00:53:03,560
Speaker 2: much defense work. They're just not optimizing their attack for attack.

1140
00:53:03,880 --> 00:53:06,240
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna bet the under.

1141
00:53:06,840 --> 00:53:08,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, Yeah, it's it's it's very interesting. They

1142
00:53:08,840 --> 00:53:11,800
Speaker 1: did obviously a very That's the thing about Harvey Varnerty's

1143
00:53:11,800 --> 00:53:13,640
Speaker 1: he's a great goal scoring option from the left, but

1144
00:53:13,719 --> 00:53:15,920
Speaker 1: he just doesn't do the defensive work that Anthony Gordon does.

1145
00:53:16,120 --> 00:53:17,799
Speaker 1: So that's why they're playing him over.

1146
00:53:17,840 --> 00:53:20,520
Speaker 2: He's not getting in the team, which you know what, fine, Yeah,

1147
00:53:20,880 --> 00:53:25,200
Speaker 2: you know they're sacrificing attack for defense. Fine, they're going

1148
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:26,480
Speaker 2: to be an under team as a result of that,

1149
00:53:26,600 --> 00:53:28,800
Speaker 2: and their defense has been really good the same KAYLEI

1150
00:53:28,920 --> 00:53:31,760
Speaker 2: chart number two in the league and adjusted extra difference.

1151
00:53:31,920 --> 00:53:34,799
Speaker 2: They've played a really tough freaking schedule and they got

1152
00:53:34,840 --> 00:53:35,880
Speaker 2: a good win against Brentford.

1153
00:53:35,880 --> 00:53:38,400
Speaker 3: They got the points. They'll probably win this match, but

1154
00:53:39,120 --> 00:53:39,839
Speaker 3: I like the ender.

1155
00:53:41,880 --> 00:53:48,320
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to Germany the Bundesliga. What

1156
00:53:48,400 --> 00:53:49,880
Speaker 1: do you have for us this week? In Germany?

1157
00:53:50,400 --> 00:53:52,560
Speaker 2: Unjo and Berlin Hoffenheim over two and a half goals

1158
00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:57,080
Speaker 2: minus one t yep, Yeah, I told you this on

1159
00:53:57,200 --> 00:54:00,280
Speaker 2: last week's show, and I'm I'm coming to this position.

1160
00:54:00,360 --> 00:54:05,880
Speaker 2: I'm developing this position. I watched Unjon play against Madrid.

1161
00:54:05,960 --> 00:54:08,440
Speaker 2: They were pretty bad defensively. It was a lot of

1162
00:54:08,520 --> 00:54:11,640
Speaker 2: last ditch stuff and granted, like you know, Hoffenheim is

1163
00:54:11,719 --> 00:54:15,520
Speaker 2: not real Madrid, but through the early portion of this

1164
00:54:15,640 --> 00:54:19,319
Speaker 2: season Unjon Berlin four matches in is a below average.

1165
00:54:19,000 --> 00:54:20,320
Speaker 3: Defensive team in the Bundesliga.

1166
00:54:20,480 --> 00:54:22,320
Speaker 2: I know how good they were last year and I

1167
00:54:22,480 --> 00:54:25,680
Speaker 2: respect it, but I do not think it's repeatable given

1168
00:54:25,719 --> 00:54:28,080
Speaker 2: the talent, given the situation, and I actually like the

1169
00:54:28,200 --> 00:54:31,479
Speaker 2: attacking additions, so I think their attack will be better

1170
00:54:31,560 --> 00:54:33,920
Speaker 2: than one of the worst in the league. I think

1171
00:54:33,960 --> 00:54:36,239
Speaker 2: their defense will be worse than one of the best

1172
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:39,719
Speaker 2: of the league. And thus I think Unyuan Berlin is

1173
00:54:39,800 --> 00:54:41,680
Speaker 2: kind of like a Wolves for me. They're becoming an

1174
00:54:41,760 --> 00:54:44,560
Speaker 2: overs team, and I know how you know, I'll regret

1175
00:54:44,640 --> 00:54:47,560
Speaker 2: this immediately, But where do you think Unjoon Berlin ranked

1176
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:51,279
Speaker 2: in XG allowed Two years ago in the Bundesliga eighth

1177
00:54:52,280 --> 00:54:56,560
Speaker 2: they were fourth, So you know, it's not like I

1178
00:54:56,600 --> 00:54:58,880
Speaker 2: think they're going to be like all of a sudden

1179
00:54:59,120 --> 00:55:03,000
Speaker 2: bad defensively, because they've got an established level here. But Hoffenheim,

1180
00:55:03,239 --> 00:55:05,040
Speaker 2: first of all, this is also you know, the other

1181
00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:08,360
Speaker 2: part of it. Hoffenheim's defense, you know, fell off a

1182
00:55:08,400 --> 00:55:10,440
Speaker 2: cliff about the halfway point of last season and has

1183
00:55:10,520 --> 00:55:13,239
Speaker 2: never recovered. And their attack is still good, like they

1184
00:55:13,239 --> 00:55:15,480
Speaker 2: still get good production out of out of Cramerich and

1185
00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:18,200
Speaker 2: they still put it together. But this defense has fallen

1186
00:55:18,200 --> 00:55:20,520
Speaker 2: off a cliff. So I think the total is a

1187
00:55:20,520 --> 00:55:23,080
Speaker 2: little low. Bet in the over two and a half,

1188
00:55:23,360 --> 00:55:25,480
Speaker 2: I mean, you're gonna tell me you have projected value

1189
00:55:25,480 --> 00:55:25,920
Speaker 2: on the end of that.

1190
00:55:26,040 --> 00:55:29,560
Speaker 1: Fine, because I agree with you. I like the over

1191
00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:32,759
Speaker 1: I've written about Hoffenheim, I think once this season so far,

1192
00:55:32,920 --> 00:55:35,640
Speaker 1: but essentially what it is is they've, you know, midway

1193
00:55:35,680 --> 00:55:37,640
Speaker 1: through last season they made a change of manager who

1194
00:55:37,840 --> 00:55:40,880
Speaker 1: favored more high pressing style, which just is not conducive

1195
00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:43,320
Speaker 1: to them and their defensive numbers improving, and they've conceded

1196
00:55:43,360 --> 00:55:44,040
Speaker 1: a ton of chances.

1197
00:55:44,120 --> 00:55:46,120
Speaker 3: So I agree four to too old.

1198
00:55:46,760 --> 00:55:49,200
Speaker 2: They don't press and they get exposed as a result.

1199
00:55:50,480 --> 00:55:52,960
Speaker 2: Like Berlin, they're gonna have a lot of space.

1200
00:55:52,760 --> 00:55:55,640
Speaker 1: Operator So I like speaking of I like Mines. John

1201
00:55:55,719 --> 00:55:59,560
Speaker 1: o'bett minus won ten on the road against Augsburg. Mines

1202
00:55:59,719 --> 00:56:01,839
Speaker 1: is at the bottom of the Bundesliga table. They got

1203
00:56:01,880 --> 00:56:04,600
Speaker 1: a minus nine expected excuse me, minus nine actual goal

1204
00:56:04,640 --> 00:56:07,400
Speaker 1: differential expect to goal differential is only around minus two,

1205
00:56:07,400 --> 00:56:10,839
Speaker 1: and if you look through their matches they got they

1206
00:56:10,920 --> 00:56:13,960
Speaker 1: got unyan Berlind on opening day lost four one one

1207
00:56:13,960 --> 00:56:16,440
Speaker 1: on XG two point three to one point. Ninn Does

1208
00:56:16,480 --> 00:56:18,960
Speaker 1: played a very even match with Frankfurt. Then you know,

1209
00:56:19,000 --> 00:56:21,000
Speaker 1: if you look at the overall XG against verte Bremen,

1210
00:56:21,040 --> 00:56:25,279
Speaker 1: they lost four nothing. But Vertebremen scored early and really

1211
00:56:25,400 --> 00:56:27,920
Speaker 1: from the point from the beginning of the match until

1212
00:56:27,920 --> 00:56:30,640
Speaker 1: about around the eightieth minute, it was a pretty even

1213
00:56:30,680 --> 00:56:33,480
Speaker 1: on XG, and then you know, Verte Bremen created three

1214
00:56:33,520 --> 00:56:35,480
Speaker 1: big scoring chances towards the end of the match and

1215
00:56:35,840 --> 00:56:38,400
Speaker 1: obviously inflates the XG. And then last week they got

1216
00:56:38,440 --> 00:56:41,040
Speaker 1: beat by Stutgart three to one, but again pretty close

1217
00:56:41,080 --> 00:56:43,239
Speaker 1: on XG. And then you look at Augsburg and you

1218
00:56:43,360 --> 00:56:46,480
Speaker 1: mentioned this on the Champions League pod, but if people

1219
00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:47,920
Speaker 1: were just looking through XG and they'd be like, oh

1220
00:56:47,960 --> 00:56:50,680
Speaker 1: my gosh, Augsburg actually beat Leipzig on XG, like one

1221
00:56:50,719 --> 00:56:53,279
Speaker 1: point seven to one point one. Well, leipzis scored two

1222
00:56:53,320 --> 00:56:56,279
Speaker 1: goals early and it was just a lot of late

1223
00:56:56,440 --> 00:56:59,080
Speaker 1: chances for Augsburg that kind of inflated it. This is

1224
00:56:59,080 --> 00:57:02,680
Speaker 1: an Augsburg team, again we've mentioned many times, was minus

1225
00:57:02,719 --> 00:57:06,040
Speaker 1: twenty four actually differential for ninety in the Bundesliga last year,

1226
00:57:06,080 --> 00:57:10,359
Speaker 1: and Mines was about around even. So using priors coming

1227
00:57:10,400 --> 00:57:13,520
Speaker 1: into this one, I really don't think that there's you know,

1228
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:17,200
Speaker 1: essentially that you would say Mines is only plus one

1229
00:57:17,280 --> 00:57:21,200
Speaker 1: twenty plus one twenty five home favorite. Our excuse plus

1230
00:57:21,240 --> 00:57:24,440
Speaker 1: one twenty five favorite on a neutral field. So mine's

1231
00:57:24,480 --> 00:57:27,400
Speaker 1: minus one ten. John O. Bett, All right, let's move

1232
00:57:27,440 --> 00:57:31,720
Speaker 1: on to Italy, Anthony, you're passing on Italy this weekend.

1233
00:57:31,880 --> 00:57:37,360
Speaker 1: I like Terrino Rama. Both team to score no at

1234
00:57:37,440 --> 00:57:40,920
Speaker 1: minus one thirty five. Josie Mourinho is an absolute sicko.

1235
00:57:41,040 --> 00:57:44,320
Speaker 1: Did you see the the Pox score from their seven

1236
00:57:44,440 --> 00:57:48,440
Speaker 1: zero win against Himpoli? They had a field I saw.

1237
00:57:48,360 --> 00:57:50,600
Speaker 2: The quote that said he won the Europa League, and

1238
00:57:50,800 --> 00:57:54,000
Speaker 2: I sent a complaint to the sports book at which

1239
00:57:54,000 --> 00:57:56,480
Speaker 2: I bet it and said that they obviously won, but

1240
00:57:56,600 --> 00:57:57,880
Speaker 2: they unfortunately.

1241
00:57:57,880 --> 00:57:59,200
Speaker 3: Disagreed with that assism.

1242
00:57:59,360 --> 00:57:59,640
Speaker 1: Rama.

1243
00:58:00,040 --> 00:58:01,520
Speaker 3: I will not I will not be betting paid out

1244
00:58:01,560 --> 00:58:02,000
Speaker 3: for that ticket.

1245
00:58:02,160 --> 00:58:04,280
Speaker 1: Roma beat and Polle over the weekend seven to nothing

1246
00:58:05,000 --> 00:58:09,320
Speaker 1: with a thirty five percent field tilt. Just insane, sick

1247
00:58:09,400 --> 00:58:12,720
Speaker 1: of stuff from Jose Mourino, like unbelievable.

1248
00:58:13,040 --> 00:58:15,800
Speaker 2: BJ's first Roma bet win of the season.

1249
00:58:16,480 --> 00:58:20,720
Speaker 1: But the more defensive team in Syria to Reno, very

1250
00:58:20,800 --> 00:58:23,440
Speaker 1: very good, disrupting people trying to build a build out

1251
00:58:23,480 --> 00:58:26,920
Speaker 1: through you. And honestly I just predicted it minus one

1252
00:58:26,960 --> 00:58:28,720
Speaker 1: fifty five for two of the more defensive teams. So

1253
00:58:28,800 --> 00:58:30,680
Speaker 1: both team to score all minus one thirty five for me.

1254
00:58:30,840 --> 00:58:35,320
Speaker 1: Roma will be an interesting team going forward. UH to Sea.

1255
00:58:35,320 --> 00:58:37,840
Speaker 1: How Lukaku kind of blends in with this squad, and

1256
00:58:37,960 --> 00:58:39,840
Speaker 1: you know they have obviously lost some players in the

1257
00:58:39,880 --> 00:58:42,480
Speaker 1: middle of the pitch as well, so we'll see how

1258
00:58:42,520 --> 00:58:44,800
Speaker 1: it goes going forward with Roma. All right, let's move

1259
00:58:44,800 --> 00:58:47,400
Speaker 1: on to Spain. What do you have for us in

1260
00:58:47,440 --> 00:58:48,280
Speaker 1: La Liga this weekend?

1261
00:58:49,080 --> 00:58:50,680
Speaker 2: I like a couple bets, so I'm just gonna mention

1262
00:58:50,720 --> 00:58:52,720
Speaker 2: them both because I don't really like one more than

1263
00:58:52,760 --> 00:58:53,000
Speaker 2: the other.

1264
00:58:53,360 --> 00:58:55,640
Speaker 3: Barcelona Celta Ego both teams to score.

1265
00:58:56,080 --> 00:58:58,120
Speaker 2: Look, Mark Andre Tristeagan might be the greatest goal of

1266
00:58:58,160 --> 00:59:01,360
Speaker 2: the world has ever seen, but this bar Sloana, you know,

1267
00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:04,680
Speaker 2: adding Joel Felix into the midfield and getting you know,

1268
00:59:04,800 --> 00:59:07,880
Speaker 2: Gabby in there as well, like it tilts the the

1269
00:59:07,960 --> 00:59:10,240
Speaker 2: thing just enough to attack where I think they're going

1270
00:59:10,280 --> 00:59:13,480
Speaker 2: to start to be more vulnerable defensively and Chobby Ball

1271
00:59:13,560 --> 00:59:16,480
Speaker 2: has been painful at times this season because they haven't

1272
00:59:16,560 --> 00:59:19,040
Speaker 2: quite pushed you know that that dial.

1273
00:59:19,480 --> 00:59:20,200
Speaker 3: But you're starting to.

1274
00:59:20,200 --> 00:59:21,760
Speaker 2: See the wheels turn and I think they're going to

1275
00:59:21,800 --> 00:59:25,040
Speaker 2: concede more as a result. Even Antwerp was able to

1276
00:59:25,080 --> 00:59:26,960
Speaker 2: get a bunch of big chances right at the end

1277
00:59:26,960 --> 00:59:30,200
Speaker 2: there and a flurry up I think ended up being

1278
00:59:30,240 --> 00:59:32,000
Speaker 2: off side by like a toe, but they had a

1279
00:59:32,040 --> 00:59:33,080
Speaker 2: bunch of really good chances.

1280
00:59:32,880 --> 00:59:34,720
Speaker 3: At the end in that match.

1281
00:59:35,240 --> 00:59:38,800
Speaker 2: So yeah, you know, Vigo with Benitez now like they're

1282
00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:40,880
Speaker 2: an improving attack. There are group that I'm going to

1283
00:59:40,920 --> 00:59:43,560
Speaker 2: continue to look to buy as a bet on team.

1284
00:59:43,600 --> 00:59:46,000
Speaker 2: If you look at some of the underline numbers going forward,

1285
00:59:46,040 --> 00:59:48,480
Speaker 2: They've only scored four goals this year in five matches,

1286
00:59:48,520 --> 00:59:51,320
Speaker 2: which sounds bad, but Xtly's been better, and you know,

1287
00:59:51,400 --> 00:59:53,800
Speaker 2: some of the other progression ball progression numbers are improving.

1288
00:59:53,880 --> 00:59:56,840
Speaker 2: So I'm buying Vigo and I'm buying goals. And then

1289
00:59:56,960 --> 00:59:58,760
Speaker 2: Via Kano is a pick them at home against Via

1290
00:59:58,840 --> 01:00:01,800
Speaker 2: Reale from a bilo like teams we like versus teams

1291
01:00:01,800 --> 01:00:04,200
Speaker 2: we don't like. Perspective, this number doesn't make sense to me.

1292
01:00:05,000 --> 01:00:08,920
Speaker 2: Be Arial has been quite bad. In fact, in La

1293
01:00:09,040 --> 01:00:11,680
Speaker 2: Liga they have a minus point four to five extra

1294
01:00:11,760 --> 01:00:14,600
Speaker 2: difference per ninety and they have not played a hard schedule.

1295
01:00:14,600 --> 01:00:18,080
Speaker 2: They played Barsa, but the rest of their opponents, you know, Majorca,

1296
01:00:18,560 --> 01:00:22,120
Speaker 2: Cadiz and al Maria have been three of their five games,

1297
01:00:22,200 --> 01:00:23,840
Speaker 2: so they've been bad.

1298
01:00:24,200 --> 01:00:25,840
Speaker 3: Their results have been up and down.

1299
01:00:26,000 --> 01:00:28,160
Speaker 2: But again, like the defense stinks and now they lost

1300
01:00:28,200 --> 01:00:31,240
Speaker 2: all their attacking talent, so at Vacano they should not

1301
01:00:31,320 --> 01:00:33,120
Speaker 2: be a pick them, they should be a sizeable dog.

1302
01:00:33,360 --> 01:00:36,120
Speaker 2: I have this like a quarter goal, so I'm going

1303
01:00:36,200 --> 01:00:38,080
Speaker 2: to take Viacano pick them minus one ten.

1304
01:00:38,120 --> 01:00:41,080
Speaker 1: They also just fired their manager and brought in a

1305
01:00:41,320 --> 01:00:43,640
Speaker 1: who is a very possession dominant build out of the back.

1306
01:00:43,720 --> 01:00:47,320
Speaker 1: If you look at their numbers, they were controlling, you know,

1307
01:00:47,720 --> 01:00:51,000
Speaker 1: essentially way over fifty percent every single team they played.

1308
01:00:51,200 --> 01:00:53,280
Speaker 1: Now the manager that bring in is a more direct

1309
01:00:53,520 --> 01:00:56,120
Speaker 1: style manager in the past, so we'll see what.

1310
01:00:56,480 --> 01:00:58,440
Speaker 2: I don't think they have the personnel form though, that's

1311
01:00:58,480 --> 01:01:01,439
Speaker 2: the I mean, I generally think that like v Rial

1312
01:01:01,480 --> 01:01:02,919
Speaker 2: had a nice run here, but I think that they've

1313
01:01:03,400 --> 01:01:05,680
Speaker 2: kind of regressed back to like the upper mid table

1314
01:01:06,360 --> 01:01:08,560
Speaker 2: by kind of is still putting up decent numbers even

1315
01:01:08,560 --> 01:01:10,880
Speaker 2: after Antoni left. There are some pen air in it,

1316
01:01:10,960 --> 01:01:12,880
Speaker 2: but it's it's legit, and they've had some good wins

1317
01:01:13,080 --> 01:01:15,560
Speaker 2: and played anybody besides i'd Letti who beat them by seven,

1318
01:01:16,040 --> 01:01:18,400
Speaker 2: so like, you know, they could lose by seven, but

1319
01:01:19,440 --> 01:01:20,320
Speaker 2: and I bet in that day.

1320
01:01:20,720 --> 01:01:22,960
Speaker 3: But they they they're undervalue here for me.

1321
01:01:23,720 --> 01:01:26,640
Speaker 1: We also have the Madrid Derby this weekend, and I

1322
01:01:26,800 --> 01:01:28,360
Speaker 1: like the over two and a half goals, the minus

1323
01:01:28,400 --> 01:01:32,160
Speaker 1: one fifteen projected close to three on this one. I mean,

1324
01:01:32,320 --> 01:01:35,080
Speaker 1: Real put in a great performance offensively against and today

1325
01:01:35,120 --> 01:01:38,360
Speaker 1: created over three expected goals. Can really controlled that game

1326
01:01:38,840 --> 01:01:41,560
Speaker 1: for you know, most of the second half really was

1327
01:01:41,640 --> 01:01:45,000
Speaker 1: in and around's penalty area. Athletico gave up a goal

1328
01:01:45,120 --> 01:01:49,200
Speaker 1: to a goalie against Lazio, which was kind of funny

1329
01:01:49,240 --> 01:01:51,960
Speaker 1: to see. But I mean, in reality, with the way

1330
01:01:52,040 --> 01:01:54,480
Speaker 1: that the Diego Simoni's team has been getting forward with

1331
01:01:54,560 --> 01:01:57,800
Speaker 1: this new type of formation, and how passive Real has been,

1332
01:01:58,320 --> 01:02:00,360
Speaker 1: you know, reality is only allowing you around one expect

1333
01:02:00,400 --> 01:02:03,640
Speaker 1: a goal for ninety in La Liga. But you know,

1334
01:02:03,680 --> 01:02:05,439
Speaker 1: if you look at some of the teams that they've

1335
01:02:05,640 --> 01:02:07,240
Speaker 1: had to face, you know it's a lot of the

1336
01:02:07,920 --> 01:02:11,360
Speaker 1: dregs or teams that can't really get forward and threaten them.

1337
01:02:11,440 --> 01:02:13,600
Speaker 1: You know, really the team that has threatened them the

1338
01:02:13,720 --> 01:02:17,280
Speaker 1: most is al Maria, is really really gave them a

1339
01:02:17,320 --> 01:02:19,480
Speaker 1: big time scare of the second match of the season,

1340
01:02:19,560 --> 01:02:22,200
Speaker 1: and Athletico does have the personnel and wide areas out

1341
01:02:22,240 --> 01:02:23,880
Speaker 1: of their five through two to give them some problems.

1342
01:02:23,960 --> 01:02:27,440
Speaker 1: So just a projection net for me in the Madrid

1343
01:02:27,600 --> 01:02:31,880
Speaker 1: Darby Let's finish up here with France. I unfortunately am

1344
01:02:31,960 --> 01:02:34,800
Speaker 1: passing this weekend. No real spots. I like kind of

1345
01:02:34,840 --> 01:02:37,880
Speaker 1: like Ren but they're coming off a Europa League match

1346
01:02:37,960 --> 01:02:41,920
Speaker 1: on Thursday. But you have a nice Friday pick for us.

1347
01:02:42,440 --> 01:02:45,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, second straight week Niece plays on Friday. I am

1348
01:02:45,120 --> 01:02:47,560
Speaker 2: not going to miss betting them this week. This team

1349
01:02:47,640 --> 01:02:50,560
Speaker 2: might be a sleeping giant. They have put out some

1350
01:02:50,880 --> 01:02:54,760
Speaker 2: very impressive early season results and the market has really

1351
01:02:54,880 --> 01:02:56,560
Speaker 2: liked them too, and that's why I'm more inclined to

1352
01:02:56,600 --> 01:02:58,720
Speaker 2: believe it. I don't consider myself to be like the

1353
01:02:58,800 --> 01:03:02,120
Speaker 2: most knowledgeable league on expert in the world, but I

1354
01:03:02,200 --> 01:03:04,520
Speaker 2: can see an emerging trend when I see one, and

1355
01:03:04,720 --> 01:03:06,600
Speaker 2: this This is a team that just held PSG to

1356
01:03:06,680 --> 01:03:10,000
Speaker 2: one expected goal and beat them three two at the

1357
01:03:10,040 --> 01:03:13,680
Speaker 2: Park Day pronce, a team that dominated Strasbourg two weeks ago,

1358
01:03:13,760 --> 01:03:15,360
Speaker 2: a Strasbourg team that I'm pretty high out of the

1359
01:03:15,400 --> 01:03:19,120
Speaker 2: market dominated Leon. I know Leon has had their own issues,

1360
01:03:19,440 --> 01:03:22,600
Speaker 2: but also played, you know, outplayed Leo in the first

1361
01:03:22,680 --> 01:03:23,360
Speaker 2: match at home too.

1362
01:03:23,440 --> 01:03:23,760
Speaker 1: Another.

1363
01:03:23,960 --> 01:03:26,280
Speaker 2: So they've taken all of these French teams that I

1364
01:03:26,400 --> 01:03:28,320
Speaker 2: came into the season just like doing my process and

1365
01:03:28,360 --> 01:03:30,880
Speaker 2: saying I think these couple of teams might be good

1366
01:03:31,080 --> 01:03:32,720
Speaker 2: and then they've beaten the shit out of them. And

1367
01:03:32,840 --> 01:03:34,920
Speaker 2: now they go to Monaco, who has had good, good

1368
01:03:34,960 --> 01:03:37,600
Speaker 2: start themselves, the plus point eight eight xtra difference per ninety.

1369
01:03:38,000 --> 01:03:39,880
Speaker 2: But you know, it's a Monico team that I think

1370
01:03:39,960 --> 01:03:42,600
Speaker 2: is more flawed defensively than they've been exposed so far.

1371
01:03:43,080 --> 01:03:46,120
Speaker 2: And I think that this, you know, this news team

1372
01:03:46,240 --> 01:03:49,760
Speaker 2: with putting up the elite defensive numbers, they have being

1373
01:03:49,800 --> 01:03:53,439
Speaker 2: more solid defensively, catching a goal a half goal at home.

1374
01:03:53,720 --> 01:03:56,520
Speaker 2: I'm going to back them here because I am a

1375
01:03:56,760 --> 01:03:57,880
Speaker 2: seller in Monaco.

1376
01:03:58,040 --> 01:04:00,280
Speaker 3: I think they're a little bit overvalued now. This hot

1377
01:04:00,320 --> 01:04:01,240
Speaker 3: start nie over.

1378
01:04:01,160 --> 01:04:04,240
Speaker 1: The second half last season and Legon's second best expect

1379
01:04:04,240 --> 01:04:06,080
Speaker 1: a golden frenchill in the league behind the Lee loll

1380
01:04:06,320 --> 01:04:09,680
Speaker 1: So team definitely on the rise right now. All right,

1381
01:04:09,800 --> 01:04:15,080
Speaker 1: let's move on to everybody's favorite portion of the program.

1382
01:04:15,240 --> 01:04:18,480
Speaker 1: Leave Off is not here, but he has faxed me

1383
01:04:19,280 --> 01:04:22,520
Speaker 1: and he has said he would like Tottenham as his

1384
01:04:22,800 --> 01:04:25,760
Speaker 1: undershocker this weekend, which is a big shocker. Who's your

1385
01:04:25,760 --> 01:04:28,560
Speaker 1: favorite underdog this weekend? Anthony, I'm gonna go with Nice.

1386
01:04:29,320 --> 01:04:31,440
Speaker 2: We just talked about it. I think they're undervalued. We're

1387
01:04:31,440 --> 01:04:32,160
Speaker 2: gonna get it started.

1388
01:04:32,160 --> 01:04:32,680
Speaker 1: On Friday.

1389
01:04:33,520 --> 01:04:35,280
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with them second Street week, I'll take

1390
01:04:35,280 --> 01:04:38,240
Speaker 2: a Friday dog. Last week Leverkusen vert hit the post.

1391
01:04:38,360 --> 01:04:39,760
Speaker 2: We had our chance to take the lead late, they

1392
01:04:39,760 --> 01:04:42,280
Speaker 2: didn't quite get there. But this week, yeah, I'm gonna

1393
01:04:42,280 --> 01:04:45,080
Speaker 2: go with nice Oz the dog of the week. I

1394
01:04:45,280 --> 01:04:47,000
Speaker 2: usually like take home teams if I can help it,

1395
01:04:47,640 --> 01:04:50,480
Speaker 2: but I think that they're a sleeping giant, so I

1396
01:04:50,520 --> 01:04:51,160
Speaker 2: will take them.

1397
01:04:51,680 --> 01:04:54,920
Speaker 3: No shock that Michael picked Tottenham though he loves him.

1398
01:04:54,960 --> 01:04:58,000
Speaker 2: Some ange posta cogno and you know what, you know,

1399
01:04:58,720 --> 01:05:01,000
Speaker 2: we'll see what the results may But oft the I mean,

1400
01:05:01,520 --> 01:05:04,920
Speaker 2: if you've seen his commentary on mental health and how

1401
01:05:04,960 --> 01:05:07,920
Speaker 2: he's helped for Charleston and how he's been really honest

1402
01:05:07,960 --> 01:05:12,520
Speaker 2: and whatnot, and even today in a press conference where

1403
01:05:12,560 --> 01:05:16,000
Speaker 2: he made sure to let the one man get a

1404
01:05:16,080 --> 01:05:16,920
Speaker 2: question in at the end.

1405
01:05:17,000 --> 01:05:17,720
Speaker 3: Go find the video.

1406
01:05:18,520 --> 01:05:21,240
Speaker 2: Just a deeply warming individual and somebody that I want

1407
01:05:21,280 --> 01:05:22,880
Speaker 2: to root for, not just as.

1408
01:05:22,760 --> 01:05:25,400
Speaker 3: A fan but as a fan of Spurs, but as

1409
01:05:25,400 --> 01:05:26,680
Speaker 3: a fan of sport in general.

1410
01:05:26,680 --> 01:05:29,320
Speaker 2: I think it's he's a really good person and it's

1411
01:05:29,360 --> 01:05:30,000
Speaker 2: cool to say.

1412
01:05:29,880 --> 01:05:31,920
Speaker 1: Someone whose paid us dues like He is not somebody

1413
01:05:31,960 --> 01:05:35,320
Speaker 1: who's you know, he's gone through a very unique route

1414
01:05:35,840 --> 01:05:38,240
Speaker 1: to get to this job, going through Australia, then through

1415
01:05:38,320 --> 01:05:41,480
Speaker 1: Japan eventually to Glasgow and now to Todtenham. Yet just

1416
01:05:41,560 --> 01:05:47,320
Speaker 1: a very very great individual. I agree Mine Underdog another

1417
01:05:48,040 --> 01:05:50,600
Speaker 1: club that can warm your heart. Loot in Town plus

1418
01:05:50,680 --> 01:05:53,240
Speaker 1: two twenty five at home against Wolves. I really just

1419
01:05:53,240 --> 01:05:55,440
Speaker 1: don't think Wolves to be a road favorite here. Wolves,

1420
01:05:55,480 --> 01:05:58,480
Speaker 1: if you've watched them, they've been afforded space against a

1421
01:05:58,520 --> 01:06:01,840
Speaker 1: lot of these teams, whether it be Manchester United, Brighton,

1422
01:06:01,880 --> 01:06:04,240
Speaker 1: They've been afforded teams that want that will not only

1423
01:06:04,640 --> 01:06:07,160
Speaker 1: press high, but really tilt the field on them, which

1424
01:06:07,240 --> 01:06:10,560
Speaker 1: gives them transitional opportunities that allows Netso and Kunya and

1425
01:06:10,640 --> 01:06:12,680
Speaker 1: all of their great attackers to get forward and actually

1426
01:06:12,720 --> 01:06:15,280
Speaker 1: have space and use the pace that they have. They're

1427
01:06:15,280 --> 01:06:18,120
Speaker 1: not going to have any space against Loutontown. Lootontown just

1428
01:06:18,840 --> 01:06:21,640
Speaker 1: conceded seventy seven percent possession to Fulham of all teams,

1429
01:06:21,880 --> 01:06:23,959
Speaker 1: so they're gonna play that a low block. They're gonna

1430
01:06:23,960 --> 01:06:25,880
Speaker 1: try to play in transition, which I'm not sure Wolves,

1431
01:06:26,240 --> 01:06:28,520
Speaker 1: even though Loutontown doesn't that much talent, they don't have

1432
01:06:28,640 --> 01:06:30,120
Speaker 1: you know, they're still are the worst team in the

1433
01:06:30,120 --> 01:06:31,920
Speaker 1: Premier League. I think the price is a little too

1434
01:06:31,960 --> 01:06:34,760
Speaker 1: insane here on Wolves. So like Lutontown a plus two

1435
01:06:34,760 --> 01:06:37,680
Speaker 1: twenty five, this parlay comes out to forty seven to one,

1436
01:06:37,760 --> 01:06:40,960
Speaker 1: one of our shorter parlays. So we'll see if in

1437
01:06:41,000 --> 01:06:44,280
Speaker 1: their first one of the season. And let's wrap up

1438
01:06:44,360 --> 01:06:47,160
Speaker 1: the show with our best bets in the Premier League, Anthony,

1439
01:06:47,760 --> 01:06:48,320
Speaker 1: We'll start with you.

1440
01:06:48,560 --> 01:06:53,040
Speaker 2: Crystal Palace minus one ten at home against Fulham. Better defensively,

1441
01:06:53,200 --> 01:06:55,520
Speaker 2: They've they've replaced the production of Zaha by getting to

1442
01:06:55,600 --> 01:06:59,000
Speaker 2: leap from Essay and Edward better offensively than Fulham. And

1443
01:06:59,120 --> 01:07:02,240
Speaker 2: I think the Cottagers have run really well for a

1444
01:07:02,280 --> 01:07:04,320
Speaker 2: year and a half now, and including in their win

1445
01:07:04,400 --> 01:07:06,800
Speaker 2: against Luton where they were not particularly impressive. You know,

1446
01:07:06,920 --> 01:07:09,920
Speaker 2: Palace loses late tough bounce back here for them. They

1447
01:07:10,000 --> 01:07:11,400
Speaker 2: went at home minus one ten.

1448
01:07:11,680 --> 01:07:16,120
Speaker 1: My favorite bet is Burnley Manchester United over three goals

1449
01:07:16,320 --> 01:07:19,200
Speaker 1: at plus one oh six. There's all sorts of issues

1450
01:07:19,240 --> 01:07:21,320
Speaker 1: that are happening with Manchester United right now. Really what

1451
01:07:21,400 --> 01:07:23,880
Speaker 1: it comes down to is two things. Is one, they're

1452
01:07:24,000 --> 01:07:26,440
Speaker 1: dealing with a ton of injuries and Basically, three of

1453
01:07:26,480 --> 01:07:28,600
Speaker 1: their four starters across their back line are injured right

1454
01:07:28,640 --> 01:07:31,160
Speaker 1: now and two. Eric Tenhak is trying to turn this

1455
01:07:31,240 --> 01:07:35,080
Speaker 1: team into an elite high pressing transitional type team. But

1456
01:07:35,200 --> 01:07:37,840
Speaker 1: the problem is essentially over the last two years now,

1457
01:07:37,880 --> 01:07:40,600
Speaker 1: even going back to Ralph Ragnik, is that United doesn't

1458
01:07:40,600 --> 01:07:43,200
Speaker 1: have the personnel to be a high pressing or elite

1459
01:07:43,240 --> 01:07:46,560
Speaker 1: high pressing team. Burnley, what they've shown in the Championship

1460
01:07:46,600 --> 01:07:48,400
Speaker 1: is they are a build out of the back, possession

1461
01:07:48,440 --> 01:07:50,840
Speaker 1: dominant team, so there are chances where they can do

1462
01:07:51,000 --> 01:07:53,160
Speaker 1: what teams like Brighton and Bayron Munich have done to

1463
01:07:53,200 --> 01:07:55,400
Speaker 1: Manchester United, which has overload whatever side of the pitch

1464
01:07:55,640 --> 01:07:57,640
Speaker 1: and essentially play through United's press, and even if they

1465
01:07:57,640 --> 01:07:59,280
Speaker 1: don't well, then United will turn them over high and

1466
01:07:59,280 --> 01:08:01,560
Speaker 1: they'll create a loutch is going forward. The flip side

1467
01:08:01,560 --> 01:08:04,080
Speaker 1: is Burnley likes to press high as well. They've tried

1468
01:08:04,120 --> 01:08:07,400
Speaker 1: it against Tottenham and against Manchester City and against Aston

1469
01:08:07,480 --> 01:08:09,600
Speaker 1: Villa and it really has not gone well because they've

1470
01:08:09,680 --> 01:08:12,640
Speaker 1: conceded six point five expected goals in those three matches

1471
01:08:12,680 --> 01:08:15,000
Speaker 1: when they've tried to press elite build up teams. Now,

1472
01:08:15,240 --> 01:08:16,920
Speaker 1: United right now is not an elite build up team,

1473
01:08:16,920 --> 01:08:19,120
Speaker 1: but they definitely have the personnel to play through a

1474
01:08:19,280 --> 01:08:22,400
Speaker 1: weak high press like Burnley has. So I think we're

1475
01:08:22,400 --> 01:08:24,479
Speaker 1: gonna see a lot of chaotic back and forth, a

1476
01:08:25,000 --> 01:08:27,880
Speaker 1: lot of high turnovers in each team's end. So like

1477
01:08:28,000 --> 01:08:30,360
Speaker 1: over three goals at plus one oh six. All right,

1478
01:08:30,600 --> 01:08:32,920
Speaker 1: that'll do it for this episode of Winter Goal. Thank

1479
01:08:32,960 --> 01:08:36,680
Speaker 1: you all for listening. We will be back next Thursday

1480
01:08:36,800 --> 01:08:41,559
Speaker 1: morning for your Premier League weekend preview for Anthony Ubundo.

1481
01:08:41,640 --> 01:08:45,000
Speaker 1: I'm BJ Cunningham. Thank you to our video team and

1482
01:08:45,080 --> 01:08:47,920
Speaker 1: to know our producer. Everyone's been behind the scenes that

1483
01:08:48,040 --> 01:08:50,920
Speaker 1: helps us and makes this podcast sound great. We'll see

1484
01:08:50,960 --> 01:08:51,920
Speaker 1: you all on Thursday morning.

1485
01:09:01,760 --> 01:09:06,240
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1486
01:09:06,320 --> 01:09:09,080
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1487
01:09:09,080 --> 01:09:12,160
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler