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Speaker 1: Hello everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm

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Speaker 1: Ryan Warmley, joined today if I Derek Brown and by

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Speaker 1: Pat fitzbars Fellas. We are talking some risky players to

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Speaker 1: think twice about drafting from twenty to twenty five. Quick

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Speaker 1: reminder for everybody who's always All of our twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: five consensus rankings and tiers can be found a fantasypros

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Speaker 1: dot com slash rankings. That's where you can find ECR

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Speaker 1: or expert consensus rankings from around the league. You can also,

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Speaker 1: of course navigate to our staff rankings. You can see

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Speaker 1: where fits has these guy ranked. You can see where

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Speaker 1: Debra has these guys ranked, and get a little more

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Speaker 1: detail on that if you so choose. As we get

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Speaker 1: closer and closer to draft season, basically like a month

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Speaker 1: and a half away at this point, which is both

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Speaker 1: terrifying and exciting, let's go ahead and die right in.

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Speaker 2: Guys.

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Speaker 1: We've got early round warnings, we've got kind of come

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Speaker 1: through some early round guys than mid round. Then maybe

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Speaker 1: look at some other guys that we are interested in drafting.

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Speaker 1: And these could necessarily be guys that we are still

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Speaker 1: willing to draft, but there are risks. We want to

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Speaker 1: think about it. Think twice I should say about whether

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Speaker 1: or not we're going to click draft on draft day.

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Speaker 1: Fits Let's start with you in the early round warnings.

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Speaker 1: Who do you have here? That's risky?

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Speaker 2: Oh man?

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Speaker 3: People are going to be mad at me for this one.

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Speaker 3: And I think this is someone people generally regard as

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Speaker 3: one of the least risky players. But I think there's

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Speaker 3: kind of a risk to taking Amen Ross Saint Brown.

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Speaker 3: He has become this sacred cow, and for good reason.

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Speaker 3: Like in PPR fantasy scoring, Amen Ross Saint Brown has

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Speaker 3: been wide receiver seven, wide receiver three, and wide receiver

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Speaker 3: three the last three years. But here's the thing. Am

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Speaker 3: and ROV's fantasy scoring was slightly down last year. He

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Speaker 3: went from twenty point seven PPR Fantasy points per game

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty three to eighteen point six last year. Now,

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Speaker 3: that's still high level production, no doubt, but for Amen

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Speaker 3: Ross Saint Brown to get within two fantasy points per

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Speaker 3: game of where he was in twenty twenty three, he

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Speaker 3: needed to have a career high twelve touchdowns and catch

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Speaker 3: in outrageous eighty one point six percent of his targets.

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Speaker 3: His catch rate had been seventy two point six the

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Speaker 3: previous two seasons, so it was a spike of nine

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Speaker 3: percentage points. And it's because his targets fell off. Like

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Speaker 3: Aminra averaged ten point three targets per game in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty three, only eight point three last year. I think

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Speaker 3: the emergence of Jamison Williams was a big reason for that,

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Speaker 3: and Jamo was here to stay. So it's hard to

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Speaker 3: see Amanrock getting back to ten targets a game. It's

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Speaker 3: also kind of hard to see him scoring another twelve touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: The Detroit Lions scored a league high seventy touchdowns last season.

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Speaker 3: No other team had more than sixty five, and without

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Speaker 3: Ben Johnson running the offense, are the Lions sniffing seventy

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Speaker 3: touchdowns again?

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Speaker 2: No way. So it's not that I think Amanro Saint Brown.

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Speaker 3: Is going to be a bust. Really, I think he's

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Speaker 3: absolutely a first round pick. I just think he should

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Speaker 3: go at the end of the first round rather than

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Speaker 3: in the middle.

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Speaker 2: Which is where he usually goes.

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Speaker 3: And not only am I taking Jamar Chase, Cede Lamb,

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Speaker 3: Justin Jefferson over Amanrah, mostly taking Brian Thomas Pukinaku and

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Speaker 3: Malik neighbors over Amanah.

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Speaker 1: Dee, Bro, you have long been a huge fan of Amenra.

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Speaker 1: You think about when you hear Fits kind of laying

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Speaker 1: in this case, why he's actually a risk this year.

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Speaker 4: I don't really disagree with him, man. I do think

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Speaker 4: the touchdowns are a little bit more replicable in the

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Speaker 4: sense that he was second in the NFL in red

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Speaker 4: zone target So I mean, maybe that goes down and

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Speaker 4: they're making less trips to the red zone because they're

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Speaker 4: less efficient. The other thing about this is, and I

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Speaker 4: know the departure of Aaron Glenn, but what if this

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Speaker 4: defense is healthier in twenty twenty five, What if they're

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Speaker 4: in less neutral game scripts, what they're actually leading I mean,

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Speaker 4: well behind a little bit more like what the defense

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Speaker 4: is actually better, because dude, they got decimated last year.

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Speaker 4: I mean their entire defensive line got hurt, cornerbacks were

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Speaker 4: in and out. If their defense is better, maybe they're

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Speaker 4: in positive game scripts more running. So I do understand

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Speaker 4: like where Fits is coming from. And I mean I'm

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Speaker 4: kind of with FITZI like, FITZI, where do you have

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Speaker 4: am Andron ranked? Because I've got a bit wide receiver

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Speaker 4: eight and people could be surprised by that. Like same,

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Speaker 4: I have Drake London and Nico Collins ahead of him.

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Speaker 2: Yeah I don't.

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Speaker 3: I don't have those two ahead of him, but like

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Speaker 3: I can standing the case for both guys.

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Speaker 4: So but to your point, I also have Puke and

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Speaker 4: Brian Thomas Junior ahead of him too, So I'm I'm

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Speaker 4: absolutely with you on this one.

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Speaker 1: I'm with you guys too. Deever, to what degree are

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Speaker 1: you discounting lines players in general because of the loss

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Speaker 1: of Ben Johnson? Like how much is that weighing on

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Speaker 1: your decision making when when laying out these rankings.

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Speaker 4: Honestly, not a ton and only because I subscribe to that.

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Speaker 4: I think that people don't give Dan Campbell enough credit that,

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Speaker 4: like he is involved in those offensive meetings, he is

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Speaker 4: actually an offensive minded head coach if you go back

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Speaker 4: to it. Just because he's more of the raw ra

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Speaker 4: ra rub some dirt on it type, everybody's like, oh,

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Speaker 4: he must be a defensive minded guy. No, like you

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Speaker 4: played tight end, he was an offensive minded guy coming

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Speaker 4: up through the ranks. So I'm not as worried about

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Speaker 4: the Ben Johnson departure as everybody else is. I do

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Speaker 4: think all these guys are pricey because that's kind of

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Speaker 4: the price tag that comes with being one of the

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Speaker 4: best offenses, if not arguably the best offense in the NFL.

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Speaker 4: So those price tags are gonna come with these guys.

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Speaker 4: But I'm kind of at consensus are below on a

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Speaker 4: lot of them only because I see an easier path

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Speaker 4: and the reason that, like how picking drakeln and Nico Collins,

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Speaker 4: Brian Thomas Junior, those guys have an easier and more

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Speaker 4: likely path to being wide receiver one overall in the

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Speaker 4: range of outcomes than somebody like Amorra, which even when

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Speaker 4: everything went great for him over the last two years,

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Speaker 4: you're talking about a guy that topped out, and I'm

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Speaker 4: saying topped out because he was a freaking top five

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Speaker 4: wide receiver. He was wide receiver four in each of

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Speaker 4: the last two years and Fantasy points per game, So like,

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Speaker 4: those are really freaking good seasons. It's awesome. But does

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Speaker 4: he have a path, like a conceivable path to wide

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Speaker 4: receiver one overall? Probably not if all these guys stay healthy.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Nico is somebody I already had ahead of amen Ra,

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Speaker 1: and that the more you're talking about it, I think

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Speaker 1: I might have Drake London ahead of him too when

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden done. But like to your point,

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Speaker 1: Nico is a guy you can paint the picture for

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Speaker 1: if it goes well, he could be. Really it's harder

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Speaker 1: to paint that picture with Saint Brown. Let's go to

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Speaker 1: a guy who just was RB one and now we're

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Speaker 1: saying is risky. We've actually talked about Saquon Barkley a

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Speaker 1: couple of times on recent shows Debro. It's interesting to

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Speaker 1: see a name like this who just won people leagues

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Speaker 1: last year and yet some of the volume stuff, which

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Speaker 1: is what I assume you're gonna say, you can easily

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Speaker 1: paint the picture for. Why maybe he should be at

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Speaker 1: least some warning flags up as well? Saquon Barkley, why

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Speaker 1: is he risky? For you?

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Speaker 4: To me, it's not one or two things. It's the

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Speaker 4: sum of all of the parts. And I'm just gonna

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Speaker 4: lay this out, guys, And this comes down to pick

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Speaker 4: your flavor of regression, because there's so many different parts

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Speaker 4: of the Philadelphia Eagles offense to where we could point

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Speaker 4: to and say, okay, well this could regress, this could regress,

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Speaker 4: And I'll just lay out the case here, guys. One

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Speaker 4: that have the fewest passing attempts in the NFL. They

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Speaker 4: are going to throw more this year. The question is

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Speaker 4: not if it's how much. Second of all, they had

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Speaker 4: the most second most positive gamescript plays last year. And

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Speaker 4: I'm not telling you the defense is gonna be bottom

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Speaker 4: fed and that's gonna make them be so pass heavy.

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Speaker 4: But we do see defenses year in and year out

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Speaker 4: they ebb and flow. So are the Eagles going to

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Speaker 4: take a step back in that? And the reason I

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Speaker 4: bring up the positive game script stuff is because in

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Speaker 4: the second half of NFL games last year, this team

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Speaker 4: was leading the freaking NFL in second half rushing rate

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Speaker 4: with sixty point four percent. The next closest team was

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Speaker 4: Baltimore at fifty three percent. That is a wide chasm. Okay,

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Speaker 4: so we got those two different points, three different points. Also, yes, worm,

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Speaker 4: we can talk about the volume since twenty ten. Saquon

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Speaker 4: Barkley and this is including regular season in playoffs, just

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Speaker 4: finished with the second most touches in a season, behind

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Speaker 4: only DeMarco Murray. He had four hundred and eighty two

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Speaker 4: combined touches. Murray in that season at four ninety seven. Okay,

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Speaker 4: we know the history of high volume seasons at the

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Speaker 4: running back and how that usually turns out. It's usually efficiency, dip, underperforms,

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Speaker 4: or injury. I don't want to be forecasting injuries, but

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Speaker 4: that's usually how it works out. I'll point back to

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Speaker 4: CMC last year, and everybody hated that call when we

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Speaker 4: made it too. And again, the last thing I'm going

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Speaker 4: to say here is you are in a better spot

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Speaker 4: year over a year. If you expect a new RB

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Speaker 4: one to step forward, then asking the same thing to

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Speaker 4: happen that happened in the previous season, the likelihood of

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Speaker 4: that happening is really really slim. At running back and

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Speaker 4: wide receiver in fantasy. If you go back to twenty thirteen,

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Speaker 4: Todd Gurley was the only running back to replicate RB

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Speaker 4: one in fantasy points per game seasons in back to

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Speaker 4: back years in twenty seventeen to twenty eighteen. So since

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Speaker 4: twenty thirteen, he's the only running back. And if you

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Speaker 4: got that's only because I had that's all I could

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Speaker 4: pull the data as far back. If you go back

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Speaker 4: even farther, the trend still continues to repeat itself. I

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Speaker 4: think it's only Priest Holmes that did it two years

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Speaker 4: in a row. So again, no RB in that sample

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Speaker 4: size since twenty nineteen has repeated, as is the RB

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Speaker 4: one in Fantasy points per game. So I'm just saying,

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Speaker 4: with pick your spot of progression, one of these are

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Speaker 4: multiple spots of here is going to hit, and Saquan's

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Speaker 4: not going to be the RB one this year.

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Speaker 1: So before I throw it at fits because I obviously

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Speaker 1: want to get his opinion as well, Debro, when you

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Speaker 1: lay out all of that at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: where does that leave Saquon ranked for you both? I'm

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Speaker 1: curious in terms of amongst the running backs and in

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Speaker 1: terms of like where in the first round are you

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Speaker 1: considering drafting him.

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Speaker 4: I've got him at RB four, I have b Jean Robinson,

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Speaker 4: Jamiir Gibbs, and actually Ashton Genty above him, and people

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Speaker 4: the biggest problem people have so far that I've heard

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Speaker 4: from the YouTube comments and stuff is Genty. Okay, I

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Speaker 4: just want Saquon Barkley at his rookie season and not

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Speaker 4: Saquon Barkley getting older. I've rather much rather than that.

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Speaker 4: And for overall, I've got Saquon. I mean, he's my

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Speaker 4: ninth overall player. I've got a ton of wide receivers

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Speaker 4: like I've got Jefferson Lamb, actually have Brian Thomas Junior

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Speaker 4: and Pukinnakua ahead of Jamiir Gibbs, Ashton gent T and

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Speaker 4: Saquon at the tail of the first round. So people

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Speaker 4: follow my ranks, they're not gonna get Saquon in mini drafts.

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Speaker 1: If any amongst the running back Steve bro Christian McCaffrey

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Speaker 1: is one that stands out. Who's behind him? Would you

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Speaker 1: consider CMC ahead of Saquon If we're saying, like, you know,

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Speaker 1: things change every year. If CMC is now the healthy

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Speaker 1: one and Saquon coming off this workload, like is there

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Speaker 1: a case be made for that? Or maybe like a

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Speaker 1: Derek Henry who was almost as good as Saquon last

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Speaker 1: year and has been a guy who has been kind

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Speaker 1: of built different, like in Tennessee and now his first

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Speaker 1: year in Baltimore in terms of aging not really getting

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Speaker 1: to him. Is there a case for some of those

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Speaker 1: guys to knock Saquon even lower down the list, or

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Speaker 1: are you comfortable with him at four?

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Speaker 4: I'm comfortable with him at four. There is a case

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Speaker 4: for CMC over him, And I think you're gonna see

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Speaker 4: maybe some ranking, Like, I've got Saquon in RB four

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Speaker 4: and I've got CMC at RB five. So if you're

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Speaker 4: telling me in training camp we're getting all the buzs

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Speaker 4: at CMC looks like he's seen C and stuff, I

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Speaker 4: wouldn't have a problem putting him above.

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Speaker 1: Saquon fits on a show we did with you, me

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Speaker 1: and Erickson earlier this week, we'd kind of talked draft

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Speaker 1: or pass, and we talked about Saquon. He was somebody

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Speaker 1: that you were drafting as high as RB two. Do

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Speaker 1: you still feel that way. It's only been a few days,

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Speaker 1: but from the last time we did a show, do

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Speaker 1: you still feel that way?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I've got him at RB two and fourth overall,

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Speaker 3: And I'll sort of repeat my stance on Saquon, Like

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Speaker 3: I agree with a lot of what Debro is saying,

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Speaker 3: and the four hundred and eighty two touch thing like

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Speaker 3: really is terrifying. Like what if Saquon breaks down a

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Speaker 3: year after getting this ridiculous workload that you know only

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Speaker 3: DeMarco Murray has seen before. He maybe misses some games,

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Speaker 3: but I'm still pretty confident that as long as Saquon

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Speaker 3: is playing, he is going to produce big numbers. And

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Speaker 3: I agree with the bro like, yeah, he could regress

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Speaker 3: in some areas, although I do think the Eagles are

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Speaker 3: still going to be one of the run heavier teams

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Speaker 3: in the league, if not as crazily run heavy as

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Speaker 3: they were last season, So we could definitely get like

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Speaker 3: a lesser season from Saquon, but man, after a season

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Speaker 3: in which he had almost twenty three hundred yards from

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Speaker 3: scrimmage and fifteen touchdowns, we could fall back to like

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Speaker 3: seventeen hundred yards from scrimmage, ten or eleven touchdowns and

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Speaker 3: still be pretty content with that with an early first

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Speaker 3: round pick. So you know, I still feel pretty comfortable

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Speaker 3: with him. He's not my RB one B Jean Robinson is,

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Speaker 3: but I still feel okay about drafting Saquon early on.

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Speaker 1: I feel like there's a lot of running backs in

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Speaker 1: the top eight or so who are terrifying to both

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Speaker 1: draft and pass. Like say, Quad, it's a little it's

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Speaker 1: scary right coming up the volume, but it's also kind

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Speaker 1: of scary to pass and say, this dude was winning

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Speaker 1: leagues last year and is in basically the same situation

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Speaker 1: I say, Christian McCaffrey, it's scary to pass on a

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Speaker 1: guy who now seems healthier and has been the number

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Speaker 1: one overall running back, but has this injury history. It's

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Speaker 1: it's scary to draft or pass on Devon ah Chan.

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Speaker 1: I think, like Penning on two his health like, It's

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Speaker 1: just there's a lot of guys where you can really

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Speaker 1: easily I think paint the picture of a very high

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Speaker 1: end season but also kind of falling off and really

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Speaker 1: hurting you if you took them early. Amongst the running

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Speaker 1: backs in this range. So Sekwon obviously the guy coming

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Speaker 1: off the best season of those, which is why he's

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Speaker 1: ranked where he is. Fits Let's go to your next

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Speaker 1: early round risky player.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's Lad McConkie, and I don't think a lot

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Speaker 3: of people are going to see him as a risk either.

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Speaker 3: Ladd was undeniably awesome as a rookie, and his rookie

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Speaker 3: aar just kept getting better and better as it went on,

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Speaker 3: culminating in a one hundred and ninety seven yard game

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Speaker 3: in the Chargers wild card loss to the Texans. Here's

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Speaker 3: the thing, though, Lad McConkie had one hundred and twelve

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Speaker 3: targets last season, he ranked twenty sixth in targets and

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Speaker 3: only missed one game, So granted there was a target

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Speaker 3: uptick for him later in the season. If we break

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Speaker 3: his season in half, he was at six point five

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Speaker 3: targets per game over his first eight regular season game

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Speaker 3: seven point five.

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Speaker 2: Over his last eight.

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Speaker 3: But still, if we say Ladd is going to average

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Speaker 3: seven point five targets and not miss a game this season,

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Speaker 3: that works out to one hundred and twenty eight targets,

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Speaker 3: which would have ranked nineteenth last year, and he had

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Speaker 3: terrific efficiency numbers two point five to nine yards per

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Speaker 3: out run ten point three yards per target. He'll have

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Speaker 3: strong efficiency numbers again because he's a really good player,

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Speaker 3: But no wide receiver is maintaining two point five nine

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Speaker 3: yards per up run and ten point three yards per

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Speaker 3: target over the long haul. Well, okay, maybe one guy,

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Speaker 3: because Justin Jefferson has averaged two point six ozer yards

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Speaker 3: per rout run and ten point two yards per target

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Speaker 3: over his career. But Jamar Chase two point two to

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Speaker 3: three yards per rout run, nine point three yards per

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Speaker 3: target cd LAMB two point twenty five yards per run

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Speaker 3: eight point eight yards per target. Hard to keep up

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Speaker 3: the crazy efficiency that Ladd gave us last year. So

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Speaker 3: if he can't increase the efficiency numbers. And even with

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Speaker 3: those high efficiency numbers, he was wide receiver seventeen in

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Speaker 3: PPR points per game among receivers who played at least

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Speaker 3: eight games. So Lad would need more target volume to

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Speaker 3: give a solid wide receiver one stats. I don't know

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Speaker 3: if he's going to get a target pump this year.

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Speaker 3: Like the Chargers signed Naji Harrison, drafted O'maron Hampton, Jim Harbaugh,

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Speaker 3: and Greg Roman want to run the crap out of

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Speaker 3: the ball, and Chargers also drafted Trey Harris Deebro favorites,

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Speaker 3: and now they might have another credible pass catching threat,

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Speaker 3: maybe more if the Ronde Gadsten Junior Mini Camp pipe

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Speaker 3: is to be believed. So I'm seeing Ladd McConkie go

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Speaker 3: ahead of AJ Brown and Drake London and some basketball drafts,

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Speaker 3: and I just I think that's a bridge too far.

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Speaker 3: As much as I like Ladd, I'm kind of gently

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Speaker 3: fading him in my drafts this year.

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Speaker 4: Deebro.

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Speaker 1: It feels like Ladd is one of those guys who

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Speaker 1: is very settled into his consensus ranking, like he's currently

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Speaker 1: eleventh in ECR, and I think maybe you could make

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Speaker 1: the case for oh I actually have him twelve or

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Speaker 1: maybe as high as ten. But I don't see a

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Speaker 1: ton of people making the case that he should be like, oh,

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Speaker 1: he's way undervalued, he should be up there at six,

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Speaker 1: or he's way over value, you should be down at eighteen.

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Speaker 1: It feels like his range of not outcomes, but of

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Speaker 1: where he's being ranked as a preseason draft prospect is

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Speaker 1: pretty solidified. That doesn't mean he can't be risky, but

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Speaker 1: it means there seems to be a lot of general

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Speaker 1: consensus around him. You have him, I think it's twelfth.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if you've updated these rankings this last

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Speaker 1: time I'm looking at them, but you also have him

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Speaker 1: in that range. How do you view lad McConkie in

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Speaker 1: terms of a risky guy to draft or not?

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Speaker 4: I see some of the risk. Like my biggest thing

347
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Speaker 4: is what version of the Chargers offense do we get

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Speaker 4: this year? Because when we look at how the totality

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Speaker 4: of last year, I mean down the back half, so

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Speaker 4: Week seven through eighteen, they ranked eighth in neutral passing

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Speaker 4: rate and sixth and pass rate over expectation, And I

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Speaker 4: know there was a lot of injuries to the backfield.

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Speaker 4: They since like fortified the backfield to the draft of

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Speaker 4: free agency. I guess I'm kind of wondering where does

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Speaker 4: the pass ray go for Ladd McConkie this year in

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Speaker 4: this offense that and can he because as good as

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Speaker 4: he was and fits nailed it like, the efficiency was otherworldly,

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Speaker 4: which is a reflection of talent, and we should believe

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Speaker 4: in talent all that kind of stuff, even second year

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Speaker 4: wide receivers. My questions on Lad are twofold one. I

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Speaker 4: do have n't at wide receiver thirteen, so I'm slightly

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Speaker 4: blow consensus on him, but within striking distance depending on

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Speaker 4: where you know where he's falling in drafts, which so

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Speaker 4: people will get exposure to him. But my questions for

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Speaker 4: Ladd's outcome this year are with the pass rate, what

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Speaker 4: does that happen?

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Speaker 1: Like?

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Speaker 4: As long as the Chargers aren't a bottom five pass

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Speaker 4: rate team, I think there's still a path for Lad.

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Speaker 4: The other part about it is as good as he was,

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Speaker 4: he still only had a twenty two point nine percent

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Speaker 4: target share after Week seven. So can Ladd in his

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Speaker 4: second year bump up from the twenty two to twenty

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Speaker 4: three percent range. Can he get into that twenty five

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Speaker 4: to twenty seven percent range. Hell, can he get to

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Speaker 4: thirty percent? You know? Because I mean, look, as much

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Speaker 4: as I love Trey Harris, he's a rookie. Even if

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Speaker 4: he pops like Ladd should still be the clear leader

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Speaker 4: of this passing attack. And outside of him, who's a

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Speaker 4: high end target earner, a proven high end target earners.

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Speaker 4: So can he bump up the target rate and become

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Speaker 4: even more of a target hog? And what does the

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Speaker 4: pass rate look like? So I see the path for

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Speaker 4: lad out producing this ADP like in this ranking, but

385
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Speaker 4: not by a ton man like I think in the

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Speaker 4: best case in scenarios, like even during that stretch, he

387
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Speaker 4: was still what wide receiver eleven in Fantasy points per game?

388
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Speaker 4: So like we're all drafting him and saying, okay, repeat

389
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Speaker 4: what you do, Like is he a guy that you're

390
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Speaker 4: gonna draft? And you say he does have top five upside?

391
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Speaker 4: That's where it's like you really got to squint to

392
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Speaker 4: see it. And I don't know if I see top

393
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Speaker 4: five upside. To FITs' point, he kind of feels like

394
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Speaker 4: more of a guy we're asking to replicate what happened

395
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Speaker 4: last year. I think there's a path to do it,

396
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Speaker 4: but it's some things kind of go right and some

397
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Speaker 4: of these things. We just don't know what the Chargers

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Speaker 4: want to do.

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Speaker 1: Fits if you had to guess, like if I told

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Speaker 1: you to put a number ranking to it, where do

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Speaker 1: you think the Chargers offense finishes this year in terms

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Speaker 1: of passing rate?

403
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Speaker 2: Thirtieth thirtieth?

404
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Speaker 1: Okay, so you do see them as definitely bottom five?

405
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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, dude, Like, I mean, how much more could

406
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:09,520
Speaker 3: they telegraph what they want to do on offense by

407
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Speaker 3: signing Najie Harrison drafting Omaron Hampton in the first round?

408
00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:14,600
Speaker 3: They are going to run the ball like crazy. And

409
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Speaker 3: it's Greg Roman.

410
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Speaker 2: Worm.

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Speaker 3: You're you're a Ravens fan, you should know what Greg

412
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Speaker 3: Roman wants to do.

413
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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: The one thing I would say about Greg Roman is

415
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Speaker 1: that Herbert's the best passer he's ever coached. So I'm

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Speaker 1: not closed off to the possibility that he does he

417
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Speaker 1: does want to pass more now that he has a

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Speaker 1: great passer, Like his other stops had been largely with

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Speaker 1: great running quarterbacks. So Ellie, at least at that point

420
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Speaker 1: in his career where Lamar was when he was with Lamar,

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Speaker 1: and I wonder if the running back edition is more

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Speaker 1: just they don't want to be terrible there, Like what

423
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Speaker 1: kind of late season JK. Dobbins and Gus Edwards has washed?

424
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Speaker 1: And I wonder if it's more like we refuse to

425
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Speaker 1: be bad at this position as opposed to we're now

426
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Speaker 1: gonna run it, you know, the third most times in football.

427
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Speaker 1: But that's definitely on the table, Like, I don't that

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Speaker 1: with a degree of confidence.

429
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Speaker 3: Greg Roman is a descendant of the prehistoric play callers

430
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Speaker 3: of the NFL. He draws his plays up on a

431
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Speaker 3: cave wall.

432
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Speaker 1: I think you're probably right, but again, herbs just so

433
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Speaker 1: good that I'm hoping it's the other way around. Nothing

434
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Speaker 1: All right, debro, who's your next risky player?

462
00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 2: Oh?

463
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:36,760
Speaker 4: I know, if it's he's probably not gonna like this. One,

464
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 4: it's Jonathan Taylor. Man at the low hanging fruit here

465
00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 4: is worry about the offensive ecosystem he's living in with

466
00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:46,840
Speaker 4: the quarterback situation, how often are they going to get

467
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 4: in the red zone? So, I mean, that's that's the

468
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:50,840
Speaker 4: easy thing to sit here and pick apart here. But

469
00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 4: for me, it also comes down to Jonathan Taylor just

470
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:57,160
Speaker 4: at the player and the efficiency. Last year, we saw

471
00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:01,199
Speaker 4: he dropped off a map going from a guy that

472
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:04,239
Speaker 4: I've had in that Nick Chubb type of file. Hum

473
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:07,880
Speaker 4: As far as rushing efficiency tackle breaking, the explosive run

474
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:09,879
Speaker 4: rate was still there for Jonathan Taylor last year, but

475
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,359
Speaker 4: the tackle breaking was not. And yes, we can point

476
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 4: to is that some of Okay, he was hurt last

477
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:18,040
Speaker 4: year and playing through an injury and stuff, but that's

478
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 4: kind of been Jonathan Taylor's game over the last few years.

479
00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 4: But forty six qualifying running backs last year, Jonathan Taylor

480
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:27,679
Speaker 4: forty second and miss tackles force per attempt forty fourth.

481
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:30,679
Speaker 4: In yards of the contact per attempt, only Kareem Hunt

482
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,159
Speaker 4: and Nick Chubb were worse than Jonathan Taylor in that

483
00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 4: metric last year. And going back to the health, I mean,

484
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 4: dude has dealt with ankle injuries basically his entire career.

485
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 4: He's had so last year the high ankle's brain. He's

486
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,280
Speaker 4: had ankle injuries in each of the last three seasons.

487
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:50,400
Speaker 4: And the other part of this is is the passing game.

488
00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 4: If if the efficiency dips, the volume the efficiency this

489
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 4: offense dips. Does JT have the runout to get pass

490
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:01,880
Speaker 4: game usage or the efficiency that could save him if

491
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 4: those things go wrong. He hasn't, And I don't think

492
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 4: it's gonna change with regardless of whoever on that depth

493
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:09,399
Speaker 4: chart is going to be playing quarterback this year. I

494
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,400
Speaker 4: don't think that's gonna be there. And Jonathan Taylor last

495
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 4: year was thirty seventh in target chare and forty third

496
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 4: in yards per route run and first downs per route run.

497
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 4: So JT just feels like the sexier version of Kirine

498
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:23,359
Speaker 4: Williams to me, And it's just not a player or

499
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:25,159
Speaker 4: archetype that I'm really interested in.

500
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 1: I think Fitz might be closer to Debro's stance on

501
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:34,159
Speaker 1: this than Debro thinks, even despite interesting homer ism, just

502
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:35,879
Speaker 1: based on where he's rank, because Fitz does have him

503
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:37,160
Speaker 1: a couple spots below ECR.

504
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:44,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've got him at RB ten in half point PPR, yeah.

505
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:45,440
Speaker 1: RB eight in ECR.

506
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 4: Just I've got him at RB thirteen, So I mean

507
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 4: we were basically riding together then. Ft see, I'm surprised

508
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 4: by this.

509
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 3: I'm trying not to be a Wisconsin Homer this year.

510
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:55,400
Speaker 3: I think I'm belove in a census on both Jonathan

511
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,880
Speaker 3: Taylor and Jake Ferguson. So yeah, I mean I've kind

512
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 3: of the same concerns. I do think a healthy Jonathan

513
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:04,880
Speaker 3: Taylor is still one of the best peer runners in

514
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,679
Speaker 3: the NFL. So, like the numbers the Debro sites, I

515
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 3: think would be better if he were fully healthy. But

516
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 3: the health is obviously a concern. I think, as Debro

517
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:19,120
Speaker 3: mentioned the ankle thing, I remember arguing with Evan Silva

518
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 3: about this last year but before the season, and Evan

519
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:25,119
Speaker 3: turned out to be right. He's like, I think the

520
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 3: ankle issues are chronic, and sure enough, like Taylor winds

521
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:33,680
Speaker 3: up getting another ankle issue. So he's missed eight games

522
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 3: due to ankle problems over the last three years, ongoing concern.

523
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,920
Speaker 3: He's also had fewer than twenty receptions each of the

524
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:43,120
Speaker 3: last two years, and it's hard to see the reception

525
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:47,399
Speaker 3: total spiking when the quarterbacks are Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones.

526
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm a little taping on JT as well.

527
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 1: Where's the round fits that you're willing to draft Taylor? Like,

528
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,360
Speaker 1: where in those early rounds would you say, okay, I'm

529
00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 1: taking the swing.

530
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, like later second would be fine?

531
00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 1: Is it more early third for you?

532
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:05,879
Speaker 4: Debro He's a back into the third pick for me,

533
00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:08,199
Speaker 4: so probably not going to get him. I don't know

534
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 4: where where's he at an overall rinks worm nineteenth? Yeah?

535
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 4: So people, I'm like a round and a half behind

536
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:16,919
Speaker 4: e c.

537
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 2: R twenty two.

538
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:22,920
Speaker 1: His ADP for the record is aligned with ECR at

539
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:26,359
Speaker 1: amongst the running backs at RB eight. So doesn't seem

540
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:27,879
Speaker 1: like a guy that you guys will be getting much of.

541
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:29,119
Speaker 1: I don't think I will be getting a lot of

542
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:32,400
Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor either. Let's go to your next player here, Fits,

543
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:33,880
Speaker 1: we're moving to a tight end now.

544
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, hockey season is over, but deebro and I are

545
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,960
Speaker 3: going to drop the gloves on this one. And spoiler alert,

546
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:44,119
Speaker 3: I'm gonna pull his sweater over his head and start pumbling.

547
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:45,160
Speaker 2: Away at him.

548
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 3: It's Trey McBride who has a late second round ADP.

549
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,719
Speaker 3: I think he's a third round value, and I've got

550
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:56,680
Speaker 3: him ranked behind Brock Powers and George Kittle. But Trey

551
00:25:56,760 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 3: McBride is is Deebro's tight end. One more on that minute.

552
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 3: So McBride is coming off a wonderful season one hundred

553
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 3: and eleven catches, eleven hundred and forty six yards two

554
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:09,159
Speaker 3: point one to two yards per route run, which is

555
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,880
Speaker 3: a really good number. He's a stud, no question. I'm

556
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:16,960
Speaker 3: just not taking him ahead of JSN, Garrett Wilson, Chase Brown,

557
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:20,720
Speaker 3: Kyron Williams, or George Kittle for that matter, all of

558
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:25,400
Speaker 3: whom have lower ADPs than Trey McBride. I have two

559
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:29,959
Speaker 3: issues with McBride relative to his cost. First Off, I

560
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 3: know people are waiting for him that better luck with touchdowns,

561
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 3: and I wouldn't be surprised if he put up a

562
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 3: good touchdown total this season. It's certainly reasonable to think

563
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 3: he'll beat his previous season best touchdown total, which is three.

564
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:45,160
Speaker 3: But like the poor TD, totals are a chronic thing

565
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,199
Speaker 3: for this guy, McBride has six touchdowns and forty nine

566
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 3: NFL games over three seasons. In his final college season

567
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 3: at Colorado State, ninety receptions, one touchdown, which by the way,

568
00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 3: he didn't get until his last game of his college career.

569
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,479
Speaker 3: Didn't have more than four touchdowns in any other college season,

570
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:06,439
Speaker 3: so in his last seven years of organized football, his

571
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 3: high end touchdowns is four. Like, maybe Trey McBride is

572
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:12,119
Speaker 3: just a guy who isn't going to give us many touchdowns.

573
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 3: The other thing, you have to think that Cardinals offensive

574
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 3: coordinator Drew Pettsing spent the offseason trying to figure out

575
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 3: ways to better utilize Marvin Harrison Junior. Like the number

576
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 3: four overall pick in the draft, MHJ had an average

577
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:31,399
Speaker 3: depth of target of thirteen point four yards. Like he

578
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 3: was totally miscast as this vertical receiver. Something has to change.

579
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:39,399
Speaker 3: And now, debro to your credit, you are consistent with

580
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:41,920
Speaker 3: the story you tell with your rankings. You McBride is

581
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 3: the tight end one, and you're skeptical about Marvin Harrison Junior.

582
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 3: You've got him ranked as a wide receiver three. Now

583
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 3: I tend to think we get different usage and better

584
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:54,160
Speaker 3: numbers for Marvin Harrison Junior in year two, which likely

585
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,879
Speaker 3: means at least a slight haircut in targets and receptions

586
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 3: for Trey McBride. I do think Bride is really good,

587
00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 3: and I can understand why most people have him ranked

588
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 3: ahead of George Kittle, even though I prefer Kittle. But

589
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:09,880
Speaker 3: debro McBride over brock Bauers is batguano crazy man.

590
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:11,160
Speaker 2: And let me tell you why.

591
00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:13,120
Speaker 4: It's really not nick. We'll get to it.

592
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:15,920
Speaker 3: McBride was a very good tight end prospect coming out

593
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 3: of college. Brock Bauers may have been the best tight

594
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 3: end prospect ever. McBride put in two seasons building towards

595
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 3: his one hundred and eleven catch eleven hundred yard breakout.

596
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 3: In year three, brock Bowers had one hundred and twelve

597
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:32,639
Speaker 3: catches and eleven hundred yards as a rookie. Ours is

598
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:35,200
Speaker 3: just on another level, man like he and Trey McBride

599
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:36,679
Speaker 3: are not comparable.

600
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:43,800
Speaker 4: All right, Well, gloves are all right, fitsy, let's go

601
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 4: all right. So I do have Trey McBride, and we're

602
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 4: gonna talk about mar of an Erson Junior. Don't worry, people,

603
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 4: We're gonna talk about him later in this episode. So

604
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 4: McBride has and I want to be very clear when

605
00:28:54,400 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 4: I say this, McBride has league defining league winner upside

606
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 4: this year. If you look at how bad his touchdown

607
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 4: luck was last year, it wasn't because of usage. It's

608
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 4: straight up like sometimes players run bad and touchdowns. We

609
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 4: talk about this all the time. Touchdowns are the flukiest

610
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 4: thing every year. I'm old enough, FITZI where I lived

611
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 4: in a world once where we talked about George Kittle

612
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 4: can't score touchdowns. That's not a problem these days. We've

613
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 4: talked about that with other players. We talked about that.

614
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 4: We're all living in this world where we talked about

615
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 4: that at one point with Amara Sam Brown. That hasn't

616
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 4: been an issue the last two years because to beginning

617
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:33,960
Speaker 4: his season he was born, that Keenan Allen Molden wasn't

618
00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:37,320
Speaker 4: scoring touchdowns. So McBride I think we were talking about

619
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 4: a player that it has been the ultimate run bad

620
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 4: with touchdowns. He was second in red zone targets amongst

621
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 4: tight ends last year, so the touchdowns are coming. But

622
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 4: also we're discussing a player that literally led as good

623
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 4: as Bowers was last year. Trey McBride amongst forty seven

624
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 4: qualifying tight ends first and target share second and receiving

625
00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 4: yards per game, thirty yards per route run first and

626
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 4: first downs. He was top three in every single freaking

627
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:04,720
Speaker 4: metric I can find, and the only thing that went

628
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 4: bad for him last year was touchdowns. Nothing has changed

629
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 4: in Arizona as far as the constitution of this offense.

630
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 4: Arizona is running it back, same dudes. So for me,

631
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 4: I have a hard time getting wrapping my head around

632
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 4: the rational coaching of Drew Petsing is not going to

633
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 4: do dumb stuff with the same exact players that he

634
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 4: had last year. And even if he does change up

635
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 4: Marvin Harrison Junior's route tree, which I think he should,

636
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 4: these two guys, I mean, they're the twin pillars of

637
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 4: this passing attack. They're both gonna soak up north of

638
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 4: twenty five twenty seven percent target shaars if everything goes right.

639
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 4: And Trey mc bride, and the reason I say he

640
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 4: has league defining upside last year, if the touchdowns were

641
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:50,440
Speaker 4: where they should have been based off of his volume

642
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 4: and usage in everything, this guy was the he So

643
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 4: he scored fifteen point six Fantasy points per game last year,

644
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 4: his expected Fantasy points per game, and I know that

645
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 4: wasn't real, but based off of the volume, the expected

646
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 4: Fantasy points per game, he should have scored was nineteen

647
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 4: point two points. Boys, That is Travis kelcey first round

648
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 4: league defining type of production to where if you compare

649
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 4: him across other positions, that spot would have made Tran

650
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 4: McBride the wide receiver three in Fantasy points per game

651
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:27,239
Speaker 4: last year and the RB five in Fantasy points per

652
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 4: game last year. That is a first round league defining

653
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 4: league winning player. The touchdowns happened this year, McBride will

654
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 4: win people leagues and tilt the math in his favor.

655
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:44,240
Speaker 1: Deebro, if you had to guess right now, like just

656
00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 1: project how many touchdowns he's gonna have this year, what

657
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:48,560
Speaker 1: number would you put it at? What range are we

658
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:51,280
Speaker 1: thinking that you think will be not expected? But the

659
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 1: actual touchdown total this.

660
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 4: Year seven to eight? Okay, I think he's gonna have

661
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 4: a big swing.

662
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 1: I do to me, And I know this is a

663
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 1: little bit different for you Fits because you actually do

664
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 1: have Kittle ranked ahead. But for somebody like you Debro

665
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 1: to me, the biggest case for somebody like Kittle is

666
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:10,400
Speaker 1: that if you have them close, and I think you

667
00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 1: do because you are also high on George Kittle this year,

668
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 1: I am very hop he's going based on ECR as

669
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 1: an early fourth rounder, whereas Trey McBride is a late

670
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 1: second rounder. That's like a round and a half of

671
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 1: value for a guy that you think is also very

672
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 1: very good. To me, that's the case for you know,

673
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 1: not taking somebody like McBride is if you think you

674
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 1: can get kittle a little bit later. I do think

675
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:35,160
Speaker 1: McBride should be ranked higher though, Like it's funny because

676
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 1: Debra heads trade McBride tight end one fits as and

677
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 1: tight end three. I've got him tight end two, which

678
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 1: I think is it's not. I think it is in

679
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 1: line with consensus, you know, behind only brock Bowers. But

680
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 1: I tend to lean closer to the Debro side of

681
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 1: this argument just in terms of the upside and how

682
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 1: excited I would be to have Trey McBride on my team.

683
00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 4: I guess.

684
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 1: Let me ask you this, Fitz, how much of your

685
00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:00,480
Speaker 1: worry with Trey McBride and your argument again and it's

686
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:02,520
Speaker 1: again it's not you have him buried in your rankings.

687
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 1: He's tight in three for you, But how much of you,

688
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 1: relatively speaking, fading McBride is strictly that touchdown your production

689
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 1: as opposed to all the other factors that you laid.

690
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 3: Out that is maybe more than half the reason. But

691
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 3: I also like Deebur's underplaying the the Marvin Harrison junior thing.

692
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 3: I think like this is a mandate for Drew Patsing,

693
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 3: Like if he can't do it, fine, but then he's

694
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 3: gonna get fired after this year. They spent the number

695
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 3: four pick in the draft and.

696
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 1: This guy that could happen.

697
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:36,600
Speaker 3: He could absolutely if he sucks again, like Patsing is gone,

698
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 3: because like it is the mandate of Drew Pettsing. And

699
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 3: you got to think he has spent some late nights

700
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 3: during this offseason trying to figure out how to best

701
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 3: utilize that Matjay so like, and maybe maybe it doesn't

702
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 3: happen and they lean heavily on Trey McBride again, and

703
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 3: Kyler just feels much more comfortable throwing these short little

704
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 3: passes to Trey. I get it, but you know, and

705
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 3: like we'll see on the touchdown thing, I could be wrong.

706
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 3: I do probably expect a new career high, although I

707
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:07,840
Speaker 3: think it might be closer to like six than seven

708
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 3: or eight. You know, it's been a multi year run

709
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 3: of we'll find out if it's just like this multi

710
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 3: year run of bad touchdown luck or if this is

711
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 3: just like his thing where he is never going to

712
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:21,839
Speaker 3: be a prolific touchdown score, that could go either way.

713
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:25,839
Speaker 4: The last thing I'll mention here before we transition worm

714
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 4: is one other thing about the Arizona Cardinals offense that

715
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 4: is not talked about enough is they leaned extremely pass

716
00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:35,799
Speaker 4: heavy towards the back half of last year, so the

717
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:38,919
Speaker 4: volume for all these players could go up. Weeks twelve

718
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 4: through eighteen last year, Arizona was fourth in Neutral's crept

719
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 4: passing rate. The only teams that were higher were the Bengals,

720
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 4: the Chiefs, and the Texans.

721
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:49,920
Speaker 1: I think so the reason and we'll move off it

722
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:52,440
Speaker 1: after this point. The reason fits that I asked about

723
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 1: how much the touchdown thing is weighing on your fading

724
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:57,880
Speaker 1: of him here is because I think the better case

725
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:01,880
Speaker 1: for being lower on streaming Bride is the anticipation of

726
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 1: Marvin Harrison Junior taking step forward. Because last year Dray

727
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:08,880
Speaker 1: McBride had two receiving touchdowns, one rushing touchdown, and he

728
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:10,879
Speaker 1: was still he was tight end two in PPR, tight

729
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:12,719
Speaker 1: end three and a half VPR. So even if the

730
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,759
Speaker 1: tight ends, even if the touchdowns don't come, he's still

731
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 1: giving you, based on the usage last year, a top

732
00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 1: three tight end floor. It's the idea that the usage

733
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:24,360
Speaker 1: might not be the same. I think that is the

734
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 1: more if you're going to make the case of him

735
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 1: as risky, the one where you can see him actually

736
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:30,320
Speaker 1: falling off and being a bad pick.

737
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:34,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, and like no question, there is a gigantic grand

738
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,399
Speaker 3: Canyon type drop off from number three.

739
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 2: However you want to order it the top three to

740
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:40,640
Speaker 2: whoever's at number four.

741
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, agreed, All right, Deeve bro let's go to your

742
00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:45,440
Speaker 1: next early round risky player.

743
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:48,440
Speaker 4: Oh good lord. I don't know how anybody wants to

744
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:51,320
Speaker 4: draft Tyreek Hill, but he's a back in ECR is

745
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 4: a top fifteen wide receiver. People are just saying, yep,

746
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 4: top five, sailing two is gonna stay healthy, Tyreek's not

747
00:35:57,600 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 4: gonna face Father Time. All these things are going to happen.

748
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 4: I'm just not there man aging wide receivers. Father Time

749
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 4: is undefeated. Tyreek is being ranked with a lot of

750
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 4: hopium and not near where his production was last year.

751
00:36:13,120 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 4: I mean, weeks eight through sixteen with two of back

752
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 4: wide receiver twenty four and fantasy points per game, which

753
00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:21,200
Speaker 4: is actually very generous. Considering he was outside the top

754
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:24,719
Speaker 4: thirty wide receivers in target chair and yards per route run.

755
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 4: You look at one hundred and twelve qualifying wide receivers

756
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 4: last year, the per route metrics fell off guys twenty eighth,

757
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 4: in separation forty eighth and route win rate. That's not

758
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:40,360
Speaker 4: a player that I want to be drafting inside of

759
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 4: the top twenty at wide receivers with all of that risk,

760
00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 4: an aging, declining player. And we haven't even discussed like

761
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:51,160
Speaker 4: the Tyreek just being Tyreek kind of stuff, like can

762
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:54,400
Speaker 4: we not like talk about like it's a non zero

763
00:36:54,560 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 4: chance that he pulls off his jersey, pulls an A

764
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:58,880
Speaker 4: B and says, screw you, guys, I'm out at halftime.

765
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:02,000
Speaker 4: Have I Week eight or Mike McDaniels is fired, and

766
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:05,560
Speaker 4: this entire team just goes into the freaking can. So, No,

767
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:08,000
Speaker 4: I don't want to draft Tyreek Kill. No. I don't

768
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:10,759
Speaker 4: think he has two thousand yard receiving upside. No, I

769
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 4: don't think he has top five wide receiver upside in fantasy.

770
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:17,200
Speaker 4: I feel like this is one of the landmines of

771
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,439
Speaker 4: fantasy draft season. I'm not drafting Tyreek Hill this year.

772
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:22,319
Speaker 1: I don't really have a lot to add on this

773
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:24,760
Speaker 1: one because I like, totally agree he's just not somebody

774
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 1: at costs that I really have any interest in. There's

775
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 1: just too many. I think he's a prime example of

776
00:37:29,600 --> 00:37:31,439
Speaker 1: a very risky player and there's just too many risks

777
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:33,959
Speaker 1: for me to be interested. Fits you're not like well

778
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 1: ahead of where Debra has him ranked, but you are

779
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:38,640
Speaker 1: a couple spots higher than deebro on Hill in terms

780
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:39,800
Speaker 1: of the wide receiver rankings.

781
00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, wide receiver nineteen, so below consensus above where Deebro

782
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 3: has him, and you have to at least consider the

783
00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:52,200
Speaker 3: possibility that they restore some of the verticality to the

784
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 3: Miami passing game if they're confident they can, you know,

785
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:59,360
Speaker 3: adequately protect Tua, which is not a given because I

786
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:06,080
Speaker 3: do not like the Miami offensive line this year. So yeah,

787
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:09,320
Speaker 3: I don't think we're seeing another seventeen hundred yard season

788
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:13,800
Speaker 3: out of Tyreek. Maybe like twelve hundred is doable if

789
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:16,000
Speaker 3: things get good again and maybe gets back to double

790
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:19,960
Speaker 3: digit touchdowns. But I do, like Deebro, have concerns about

791
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:23,319
Speaker 3: how well he ages with his game, Like I think

792
00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 3: Mike Evans' game is probably going to age better than

793
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 3: Tyreek Hill's game, Yes, because Evans does not do it

794
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 3: with athleticism and speed. He does it by being a

795
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:36,680
Speaker 3: superior rebounder. And like the contested catchability is not going

796
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:42,319
Speaker 3: to disappear that quickly with age. So yeah, I'm kind

797
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:44,040
Speaker 3: of drafting around Tyreek myself.

798
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 4: Mike Evans and DeVante Adams should not be ranked behind

799
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:50,880
Speaker 4: Tyreek Hill, and yet an ECR, this is what we're seeing.

800
00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:53,719
Speaker 1: I was going to say, when I look at like

801
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:55,800
Speaker 1: these names and if I want to throw like a

802
00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 1: either or at you guys on the show, like Tyreek

803
00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:01,080
Speaker 1: Hill or so, and so if I look at our

804
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 1: staff rankings, he's around names where I'm a lot more

805
00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 1: willing to make that. You know, oh, would you rather

806
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:08,960
Speaker 1: take Tyre Killer Marvin Harrison Junior or Tyri Kill or

807
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:11,799
Speaker 1: Ted McMillan, Tyra Killer Dk metcalf. I think those are

808
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:14,800
Speaker 1: reasonable questions to ask. But if you look at ECR,

809
00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:16,919
Speaker 1: the names that he's around where you say, oh, would

810
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:19,720
Speaker 1: rather have Tyreek Kill or it's Tyrey Killer, Garrett Wilson,

811
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 1: Tyry Killer, Mike Evans, Tyry Killer, t Higgen, Tyry Killer,

812
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:25,880
Speaker 1: DeVante Adams, And to me, it's very easy not Tyreek

813
00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 1: Hill in any of those scenarios, Like, I just don't

814
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:29,880
Speaker 1: think he's in the range of the rankings that he

815
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 1: should be. It should be like five to eight spots lower,

816
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:34,160
Speaker 1: and those are the names he should be near.

817
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 4: Adamantly agree, adamant.

818
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:41,200
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819
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:43,640
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820
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:46,719
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821
00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:49,799
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822
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:53,239
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823
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824
00:39:56,560 --> 00:40:00,200
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825
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 1: a quick promo that I just did there, so it

826
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:04,160
Speaker 1: sounds like I'm doing a read. I actually like there

827
00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:06,360
Speaker 1: is almost maybe no tool that we have at Fantasy

828
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:08,279
Speaker 1: Pros that I would more encourage people to use than

829
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:11,600
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830
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831
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:16,640
Speaker 1: fantasy places like to throw out the term cheat code,

832
00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 1: and we do it too. That is a cheeko. Draft

833
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:21,720
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834
00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:23,920
Speaker 1: it to people to check that out. So again fantasypros

835
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 1: dot Com slash Intel. All right, let's go to some

836
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:27,920
Speaker 1: of the mid round names here. If it's who you have,

837
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:30,719
Speaker 1: and obviously there's inherently less risk the later into the

838
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 1: draft you get, so well, maybe go a little bit

839
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 1: quicker on these names. We just got four of them

840
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:36,319
Speaker 1: here for you, But mid round names risky. Who you

841
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:36,840
Speaker 1: got first?

842
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:39,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, A Lions fans already hate me, so I might

843
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:43,840
Speaker 3: as well just lean into that. David Montgomery. Over the

844
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 3: last two years, Montgomery has scored twenty five touchdowns in

845
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:50,160
Speaker 3: twenty eight regular season games, and as I mentioned in

846
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 3: my little soliloquy about I'm and around Saint Brown earlier

847
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 3: in the show, I'm not expecting another league high seventy

848
00:40:56,120 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 3: touchdowns out of the alliance. With Ben Jonson no longer around,

849
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:05,320
Speaker 3: the Lions also had excellent veteran center Frank ragnow retire.

850
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 3: You have to wonder if that's going to affect Detroit's

851
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:10,879
Speaker 3: inside running game, and man, you really have to wonder

852
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 3: how much longer it's going to be a near fifty

853
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:15,920
Speaker 3: to fifty workload split between Jumior Gibbs and David Montgomery.

854
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:17,960
Speaker 3: When Gibbs is one of the three best running backs

855
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 3: in the NFL. So I just see a number of

856
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 3: possible ways that Montgomery does not live up to his adp.

857
00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've liked Montgomery for a long time, but it

858
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 1: feels like it was at a certain point the other

859
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:34,319
Speaker 1: shoes get to drop here and it's going to be

860
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:37,320
Speaker 1: more fully gives backfield. There's going to be fewer touchdown

861
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:39,560
Speaker 1: scoring opportunities deeper. What do you think about Montgomery? Where

862
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 1: do you have them ranked?

863
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 4: I've got him at RB twenty two, some right behind consensus.

864
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:46,640
Speaker 4: I could make an easy case once we get into

865
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:49,680
Speaker 4: training camp and roles are kind of getting solidified a

866
00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:52,279
Speaker 4: little bit, more guys are staying healthy, things like that,

867
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:54,080
Speaker 4: where I can bump them down a little bit more.

868
00:41:55,120 --> 00:41:57,960
Speaker 4: And I do think that this his profile was incredibly

869
00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:00,279
Speaker 4: touchdown dependent. I mean, like weeks one through four team

870
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 4: and he was healthy, he was twenty first in rushing

871
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:05,080
Speaker 4: arts per game. But this dude was second in the

872
00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 4: NFL and rushing touchdowns behind only freaking Derek Henry through

873
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:08,959
Speaker 4: the first fourteen games.

874
00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 2: So see anti Trey McBride de bro I know.

875
00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:15,560
Speaker 4: That's good call FITSI Yeah, I mean, so's it's a

876
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:17,960
Speaker 4: lot of touchdowns driven, So it really comes down to, like,

877
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:20,839
Speaker 4: what do you think about Jamira Gibbs and his role,

878
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:22,719
Speaker 4: and what do you think about the constitution of the

879
00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:25,200
Speaker 4: Lions offense this year? And if both of those things,

880
00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:27,799
Speaker 4: if you lean toward more towards Gibbs or you think

881
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:30,200
Speaker 4: the Lions are going to regress some more, then Montgomery

882
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 4: needs to be low. But I mean, dude, like over

883
00:42:32,520 --> 00:42:35,880
Speaker 4: that spot because of the touchdowns. He was RB eleven

884
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:38,720
Speaker 4: and Fantasy points per game, so honestly, compared to the production,

885
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:41,680
Speaker 4: we're all kind of giving him the discount to a

886
00:42:41,719 --> 00:42:44,279
Speaker 4: certain extent. But I do think we can do it

887
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:48,120
Speaker 4: a little bit more if like guys like Traveon Henderson

888
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:50,319
Speaker 4: and some of these other guys, like if we do

889
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:53,280
Speaker 4: get word that you know, like Aaron Jones is staying

890
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 4: healthy and all these are the parts and pieces. If

891
00:42:56,239 --> 00:42:58,640
Speaker 4: those things happen, I could see other players hopping him

892
00:42:58,640 --> 00:42:59,920
Speaker 4: in ranks before we get the week one.

893
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 1: Do you think fits that there's maybe a case to

894
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:05,640
Speaker 1: be made for Montgomery as a good investment because he

895
00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:07,960
Speaker 1: can be somebody that is like a low end flex

896
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:11,160
Speaker 1: for you when everybody's healthy. But if Gibbs gets hurt,

897
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 1: he becomes a much more valuable starter.

898
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:16,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean there there is that contingent up side

899
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:19,000
Speaker 3: for sure, Like if Gibbs were to miss three or

900
00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 3: four games, Montgomery could.

901
00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:23,440
Speaker 1: I mean, he's getting ranked as a top twelve running

902
00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 1: back in any week he gives us out right or

903
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:25,719
Speaker 1: at least a lot.

904
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:29,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, at first, I mean that that is the one

905
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:32,839
Speaker 3: path for Montgomery to out kick his ADP significantly.

906
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:35,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, deebra, who's your risky player here?

907
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:39,480
Speaker 4: All right, Well, we've we've ticked off a few fan bases.

908
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:42,160
Speaker 4: I'm gonna tick off the Dejons and the Carolina Panthers

909
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 4: fan base here with Chuba Hubbard. I'm just not sold

910
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:47,680
Speaker 4: on Chewba Hubbard. I feel like last year, if you

911
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:50,719
Speaker 4: really put his full season under the microscope, there's a

912
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:53,919
Speaker 4: lot of worries here. So Miles Sanders, I'm not telling

913
00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:56,320
Speaker 4: you that he's good, but he factored into this backfield.

914
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:59,360
Speaker 4: He left week ten with an injury, mix missed weeks

915
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:02,200
Speaker 4: ten through seven, And if you look at Hubbard's usage

916
00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:05,200
Speaker 4: at the very like the outset of the year and

917
00:44:05,280 --> 00:44:08,480
Speaker 4: how it progressed before Miles Sanders, there's a lot of

918
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:11,960
Speaker 4: worries here, guys, where weeks one through nine with Hubbard

919
00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 4: and Miles Sanders, Hubbard played fifty four to eighty three

920
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:17,279
Speaker 4: percent of the snaps. He had four games in that

921
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:20,480
Speaker 4: sample with sixty five percent lower the snaps if you

922
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 4: dial it in further, so, basically before Carolina figured out

923
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:26,920
Speaker 4: that Miles Sanders was total dust in weeks one through three,

924
00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:30,319
Speaker 4: Hubbard and looking at his past game role, which we've

925
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:32,239
Speaker 4: talked about pass game, and that's where it gives the

926
00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:35,120
Speaker 4: floor and the ceiling for these players in weeks one

927
00:44:35,120 --> 00:44:37,640
Speaker 4: through three, before the Carolina kind of figured up Miles

928
00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:41,720
Speaker 4: Sanders is not very good a football anymore. Chuba Hubbard

929
00:44:41,800 --> 00:44:44,080
Speaker 4: only had a thirty five point five percent route per

930
00:44:44,120 --> 00:44:46,600
Speaker 4: drop back rate. Sanders is zing into it too at

931
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:50,240
Speaker 4: twenty seven percent. Their red zone role was basically split.

932
00:44:50,360 --> 00:44:53,920
Speaker 4: Hubbard had three rush red zone rushing attempt Sanders had two. Now,

933
00:44:53,960 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 4: if you look at after Sanders was out, Hubbard's route

934
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 4: per dropback rate skyrocketed to sixty four percent. He had

935
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 4: a twelve point four percent target chair and a lot

936
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:07,680
Speaker 4: of that was just based out of necessity. They didn't

937
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:11,839
Speaker 4: have illustrious pass catchers and so adding Tero McMillan some

938
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:14,320
Speaker 4: of these guys being another year in the Carolina Panthers

939
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:18,879
Speaker 4: passing offense and the system, Hubbard failed to eclipse one

940
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 4: point zero yards per route run or fifteen receiving yards

941
00:45:22,360 --> 00:45:25,239
Speaker 4: per game, regardless of whatever split you look at for

942
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:28,320
Speaker 4: the season. So I think he could have issues in

943
00:45:28,360 --> 00:45:31,520
Speaker 4: the red zone if because they also signed Rico Dowd

944
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:34,600
Speaker 4: in the offseason, and they drafted Trevor Eten, who was

945
00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:38,720
Speaker 4: a very good passing downback. So looking at Hubbard's runout

946
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:42,439
Speaker 4: this year, I think Everybody's kind of expecting, Oh, he's

947
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:45,080
Speaker 4: going to go back to being like basically Carolinas Kyvin Williams,

948
00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:47,319
Speaker 4: where he's getting all the work, and I don't know

949
00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:50,880
Speaker 4: if that happens. Guys like I think Rico, who played

950
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:53,080
Speaker 4: really well last year, can eat into the red zone

951
00:45:53,160 --> 00:45:55,680
Speaker 4: role and the early down role. Trevor Etn if he

952
00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:58,239
Speaker 4: proves that he is competent on passing downs, can eat

953
00:45:58,239 --> 00:46:00,440
Speaker 4: into the passing game role. And I mean we already

954
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:02,839
Speaker 4: saw this happen with Miles Sanders last year to begin

955
00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:05,839
Speaker 4: the year before Hubbard went on that just monstrous, like

956
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:08,719
Speaker 4: eighty ninety ninety five percent of the snaps type of run.

957
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:12,279
Speaker 4: So I think last year's role and production was based

958
00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:16,040
Speaker 4: out of necessity, not a reflection of like Hubbard's overall

959
00:46:16,160 --> 00:46:20,000
Speaker 4: talent and skill set as a true three down bell cow.

960
00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:23,040
Speaker 4: So Hubbard where he's being drafted, I just can't buy

961
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:24,799
Speaker 4: into it. Man. I've got him as a low RB

962
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:26,920
Speaker 4: two and my ranks right now, I've got him as

963
00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:30,959
Speaker 4: a RB twenty four, and that could be generous if

964
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:33,719
Speaker 4: this becomes maybe a two or three way committee.

965
00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:36,279
Speaker 1: Fitz, this is one where based on the rankings it

966
00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:38,799
Speaker 1: looks like you are higher on Tuba than Debro is.

967
00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, RB seventeen, and I've kind of debated like moving

968
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:44,560
Speaker 3: James Connor ahead of him, so it might be RB

969
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:50,680
Speaker 3: eighteen by tomorrow. But so I don't dispute Debro's assessment

970
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:54,160
Speaker 3: of Cuba's passing down roll. I wouldn't be surprised if

971
00:46:54,560 --> 00:46:57,160
Speaker 3: Cuba finished with fewer than the forty three catches he

972
00:46:57,200 --> 00:47:00,320
Speaker 3: had last year. I do think like Cuba would have

973
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:03,359
Speaker 3: to be pretty bad and play himself out of the

974
00:47:03,480 --> 00:47:06,160
Speaker 3: lead gig to not be the lead guy. Like the

975
00:47:06,200 --> 00:47:08,920
Speaker 3: Panthers told us how they feel about their situation with

976
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:11,640
Speaker 3: the contracts they handed out. They gave Cuba four years

977
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:15,520
Speaker 3: thirty three million, sixteen and a half guaranteed. Rico Dowdle

978
00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:18,880
Speaker 3: got a one year, two point seventy five million dollar deal, So,

979
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 3: like Cuba is, Cuba is the guy. Rico is not

980
00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:27,360
Speaker 3: unseating him in the preseason. And Cuba was actually pretty

981
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 3: good as a runner last year, eighth in yards after

982
00:47:29,719 --> 00:47:32,279
Speaker 3: contact or attempt among all running backs with at least

983
00:47:32,320 --> 00:47:36,279
Speaker 3: one hundred carries. So I still think Cuba is pretty good.

984
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:40,120
Speaker 3: And I like the trajectory of the offense under Dave

985
00:47:40,200 --> 00:47:43,200
Speaker 3: Kanalis in Carolina, and I think Carolina has one of

986
00:47:43,239 --> 00:47:45,080
Speaker 3: the better young offensive lines in the league.

987
00:47:45,840 --> 00:47:48,560
Speaker 4: I've also heard of a lot about the Cuba Hubber contract.

988
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:50,280
Speaker 4: I just want to point it out there for people

989
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:53,719
Speaker 4: that the Carolina Panthers can get out of his contract

990
00:47:54,040 --> 00:47:58,120
Speaker 4: after this season with only a four point five million

991
00:47:58,200 --> 00:48:01,640
Speaker 4: dead cap hit. Yeah, it's kind of funny money a

992
00:48:01,640 --> 00:48:02,160
Speaker 4: little bit too.

993
00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:05,000
Speaker 3: Sixteen and a half million guaranteed is not nothing, though.

994
00:48:05,040 --> 00:48:08,040
Speaker 3: That is money that Chuba Hubbard is getting no matter

995
00:48:08,080 --> 00:48:09,319
Speaker 3: what faith.

996
00:48:09,400 --> 00:48:11,080
Speaker 1: Let's go to your next risky player.

997
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:16,200
Speaker 3: It's Chris Godwin, and Godwin is actually pretty affordable right now.

998
00:48:16,320 --> 00:48:19,600
Speaker 3: His consensus ADP is fifty eighth overall, so he's a

999
00:48:19,680 --> 00:48:23,760
Speaker 3: late fifth rounder. People are going to think that's pretty

1000
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:25,919
Speaker 3: good value for a guy who was wide receiver one

1001
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:29,600
Speaker 3: in PPR scoring through the first six weeks of twenty

1002
00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:32,600
Speaker 3: twenty four. But then he got hurt, and really that

1003
00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 3: is my concern, the health issue. Godwin dislocated his ankle

1004
00:48:38,760 --> 00:48:41,720
Speaker 3: and fractured his fibula. It was a pretty gruesome injury

1005
00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:44,400
Speaker 3: in that game against the Ravens. Worm and I just

1006
00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:46,640
Speaker 3: have a hard time believing that Godwin is going to

1007
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:49,800
Speaker 3: be anywhere close to one hundred percent to start the season,

1008
00:48:50,400 --> 00:48:53,520
Speaker 3: and frequent guest of the show, doctor d pak Jonah,

1009
00:48:54,040 --> 00:48:55,799
Speaker 3: says he thinks Godwin is going to be more like

1010
00:48:55,880 --> 00:48:58,480
Speaker 3: eighty percent to start the season, in ninety percent by

1011
00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:02,920
Speaker 3: mid season. Factor in added target competition. I mean, Godwin

1012
00:49:03,000 --> 00:49:05,360
Speaker 3: was already sharing targets with the great Mike Evans and

1013
00:49:05,680 --> 00:49:07,920
Speaker 3: now here comes first round pick a Mecca a Buka.

1014
00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:11,160
Speaker 3: So I'm just not that interested in rostering Chris Godwin

1015
00:49:11,200 --> 00:49:16,120
Speaker 3: this season, even though I really like the player and

1016
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 3: you know, got off to a flying start last year.

1017
00:49:19,160 --> 00:49:21,320
Speaker 2: I just don't think this year is gonna be anything

1018
00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:22,040
Speaker 2: like last year.

1019
00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:26,719
Speaker 4: Debrow, where you at on Godwin, I'm actually lower than consent.

1020
00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:29,280
Speaker 4: I got him at wide receiver thirty four. Consensus hasn't

1021
00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:31,759
Speaker 4: as a wide receiver of twenty eight. So I'm with

1022
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 4: Fitzy on this one. The other third part about Godwin

1023
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:37,120
Speaker 4: and if we just pop up in the hood of

1024
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:40,160
Speaker 4: last year, I mean, he didn't start out great out

1025
00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:42,960
Speaker 4: out the gate when they had him playing more outside.

1026
00:49:43,040 --> 00:49:45,320
Speaker 4: It was after towards the middle of the season whenever

1027
00:49:45,360 --> 00:49:47,560
Speaker 4: he went back into the slot and they got force

1028
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 4: fed all the design targets and stuff like that, where

1029
00:49:49,520 --> 00:49:52,680
Speaker 4: we saw him just crushing. And so what do we

1030
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:55,399
Speaker 4: see is he gonna with with the arrival of a mecca?

1031
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:58,000
Speaker 4: A Buka is a Mecca Buca and Godwin gonna rotate

1032
00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:00,359
Speaker 4: inside outside is a Mecca gonna play in the end side?

1033
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:02,920
Speaker 4: Is Godwin going to be healthy like I think at

1034
00:50:02,920 --> 00:50:04,520
Speaker 4: this point of his career, Like these are a lot

1035
00:50:04,560 --> 00:50:07,040
Speaker 4: of different questions, and when we're in this range of

1036
00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:09,440
Speaker 4: the draft and stuff like that, I just find myself

1037
00:50:09,560 --> 00:50:13,480
Speaker 4: continually picking other players in the draft, like you know

1038
00:50:13,719 --> 00:50:16,600
Speaker 4: the ECR, like are we gonna go with Chris Godwin

1039
00:50:16,680 --> 00:50:18,759
Speaker 4: to have one last ride? Or you want to pick

1040
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:21,840
Speaker 4: Jalen Waddle, you want to go with Tedoro McMillan, Like,

1041
00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:23,880
Speaker 4: those are other guys that are at their cost and

1042
00:50:23,920 --> 00:50:26,640
Speaker 4: where they're at versus Godwin. I would much rather draft

1043
00:50:26,680 --> 00:50:27,160
Speaker 4: either one of.

1044
00:50:27,080 --> 00:50:30,600
Speaker 1: Them, Debro. Let's go to the last risky guy here.

1045
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:31,320
Speaker 4: Uh.

1046
00:50:31,360 --> 00:50:33,240
Speaker 1: And this is some way that we've kind of alluded

1047
00:50:33,239 --> 00:50:35,080
Speaker 1: to a lot already in the show talking about other players.

1048
00:50:35,080 --> 00:50:36,319
Speaker 1: So I think we can go quicker on here.

1049
00:50:36,840 --> 00:50:40,160
Speaker 4: I mean, dude, everybody is forecasting that Marvin Harrison Junior

1050
00:50:40,239 --> 00:50:42,840
Speaker 4: takes not only just a I mean like a ginormous step.

1051
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:45,000
Speaker 4: He was wide receiver thirty nine and Fantasy points per

1052
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:47,719
Speaker 4: game last year. He is being ranked in ECR as

1053
00:50:47,760 --> 00:50:51,320
Speaker 4: Wide receiver twenty. So everybody is baking in an overly

1054
00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:54,799
Speaker 4: So the second year leap for wide receivers that were

1055
00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:58,799
Speaker 4: just expecting to happen, but yet Drew Petsing is still there.

1056
00:50:59,480 --> 00:51:02,240
Speaker 4: Yet they didn't add any other wide receivers of different

1057
00:51:02,320 --> 00:51:05,160
Speaker 4: archetypes that can do the role. That basically they shoved

1058
00:51:05,200 --> 00:51:08,520
Speaker 4: the Marvin Harrison Junior into last year because if you

1059
00:51:08,560 --> 00:51:11,480
Speaker 4: go weeks one through nine, this dude had had forty

1060
00:51:11,560 --> 00:51:14,719
Speaker 4: nine percent of his routes were vertical breaking routes. Unfortunately

1061
00:51:14,719 --> 00:51:17,640
Speaker 4: for Marvin Errison Junior, he ranked eighty fourth in separation

1062
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:20,920
Speaker 4: and fifty first in route win rate on vertical breaking routes.

1063
00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:24,440
Speaker 4: Is this going to change this year? Everybody in ECR,

1064
00:51:24,520 --> 00:51:27,560
Speaker 4: and everybody's telling us that that it is. I'm not

1065
00:51:27,760 --> 00:51:30,600
Speaker 4: so sure with that. I'm not telling you that. I

1066
00:51:30,640 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 4: believe in rational coaching and I believe that Drew Petsing

1067
00:51:33,680 --> 00:51:35,480
Speaker 4: is magic going to roll out of bed in the

1068
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:40,000
Speaker 4: year twenty twenty five and do smarter things with Marvin

1069
00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:43,080
Speaker 4: Errison Junior in a role that he was ill equipped

1070
00:51:43,560 --> 00:51:46,000
Speaker 4: to perform in. And we all could talk about, Oh,

1071
00:51:46,040 --> 00:51:47,960
Speaker 4: he looks really really good. He's all bulked up and

1072
00:51:47,960 --> 00:51:50,320
Speaker 4: stuff like that. Hey what if that kind of works

1073
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:52,680
Speaker 4: against him? And he's the next David Boston And it's

1074
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:54,600
Speaker 4: not a wonderful thing that he added all the size

1075
00:51:54,600 --> 00:51:55,919
Speaker 4: and strength fits.

1076
00:51:56,000 --> 00:51:57,720
Speaker 1: Do you have anything more you want add on Harrison

1077
00:51:57,840 --> 00:51:59,640
Speaker 1: or we already talked about him earlier.

1078
00:51:59,640 --> 00:52:02,480
Speaker 3: Oh Man evoking the David Boston thing is pretty terrifying.

1079
00:52:02,560 --> 00:52:06,799
Speaker 3: So his consensus ADP is wide receiver sixteen. I'm wide

1080
00:52:06,880 --> 00:52:09,520
Speaker 3: receiver eighteen. Like I said, I think Drew Petsing is

1081
00:52:09,520 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 3: going to try to fix the problems with Marvin Harrison Junior.

1082
00:52:13,600 --> 00:52:15,960
Speaker 3: And I do believe in the talent. I just don't

1083
00:52:16,000 --> 00:52:18,400
Speaker 3: know if he and Kyler Murrie are a good mix,

1084
00:52:18,840 --> 00:52:22,200
Speaker 3: with Kyler clearly like not loving throwing over the middle

1085
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:26,399
Speaker 3: of the field, Like Kyler likes to throw to the edges.

1086
00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:28,240
Speaker 4: And you can't see the middle of the field FITSI,

1087
00:52:28,480 --> 00:52:30,640
Speaker 4: you can't see over the offensive line exactly.

1088
00:52:31,280 --> 00:52:33,279
Speaker 1: I'm not like out on Harrison. I think I'm more

1089
00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:35,560
Speaker 1: interested in him than certainly de Bro, maybe a little

1090
00:52:35,560 --> 00:52:38,880
Speaker 1: more interested than Fits. But ADP of wide receiver sixteen

1091
00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:42,640
Speaker 1: seems really high coming off to us, rich dude, like

1092
00:52:42,719 --> 00:52:44,640
Speaker 1: that is like a lot of banking in.

1093
00:52:45,040 --> 00:52:46,880
Speaker 4: I've got him taking a step forward, like I've got

1094
00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:49,279
Speaker 4: him ranked as a wide receiver three. That's better than

1095
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:52,680
Speaker 4: what he produced last year. But everybody else will say, no, no,

1096
00:52:52,640 --> 00:52:53,279
Speaker 4: we gotta go.

1097
00:52:53,680 --> 00:52:56,040
Speaker 1: I would have more in wide receiver too, but like

1098
00:52:56,120 --> 00:52:59,920
Speaker 1: back in wide receiver too, not like sixteenth is really high,

1099
00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:01,640
Speaker 1: all right, So we've got kind of one little mini

1100
00:53:01,680 --> 00:53:03,839
Speaker 1: segment here to wrap things up. It's kind of just

1101
00:53:03,880 --> 00:53:06,560
Speaker 1: one more risky player that you guys might actually draft

1102
00:53:07,120 --> 00:53:08,640
Speaker 1: at the spot. So kind of a player that does

1103
00:53:08,719 --> 00:53:10,760
Speaker 1: carry some risk, but that you guys are maybe extra

1104
00:53:10,840 --> 00:53:14,560
Speaker 1: interested in giving their current cost. Bit's who you have here.

1105
00:53:14,600 --> 00:53:14,960
Speaker 2: All right.

1106
00:53:15,040 --> 00:53:17,560
Speaker 3: I was eagerly drafting Chris a Lave when he was

1107
00:53:17,600 --> 00:53:19,719
Speaker 3: going in the late second or early third round. You

1108
00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:21,520
Speaker 3: better believe I'm going to be drafting him in at

1109
00:53:21,560 --> 00:53:23,680
Speaker 3: least one or two leagues now that he's like wide

1110
00:53:23,680 --> 00:53:27,320
Speaker 3: receiver thirty six or something and going in the sixth round.

1111
00:53:28,400 --> 00:53:32,000
Speaker 3: Two thousand yard seasons to begin his career before last

1112
00:53:32,040 --> 00:53:37,160
Speaker 3: year's injury shortened campaign. A Lave is a terrific route runner.

1113
00:53:37,520 --> 00:53:39,880
Speaker 3: A Lave is big time speed. A Lave has averaged

1114
00:53:39,960 --> 00:53:42,400
Speaker 3: two point two one yards per rout run for his career,

1115
00:53:42,400 --> 00:53:45,240
Speaker 3: which is excellent. But people are going to be scared

1116
00:53:45,280 --> 00:53:49,480
Speaker 3: away by the dual specters of his concussion issues and

1117
00:53:49,560 --> 00:53:53,200
Speaker 3: his quarterback issues with either Spencer Ratler or Tyler Schuck

1118
00:53:53,239 --> 00:53:53,640
Speaker 3: trying to.

1119
00:53:53,560 --> 00:53:54,239
Speaker 2: Get him the ball.

1120
00:53:55,000 --> 00:53:56,840
Speaker 3: I am willing to take the medical risk with the

1121
00:53:56,920 --> 00:54:00,520
Speaker 3: Lave because of the potential rewards, and I do understand

1122
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:05,680
Speaker 3: the QB concerns, but look, even the very worst passing

1123
00:54:05,719 --> 00:54:07,879
Speaker 3: offenses in the league every year get at least three

1124
00:54:07,880 --> 00:54:09,200
Speaker 3: thousand passing yards.

1125
00:54:09,360 --> 00:54:12,440
Speaker 2: Well. The Patriots were six yards short of that last year,

1126
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:13,240
Speaker 2: But you get the idea.

1127
00:54:15,200 --> 00:54:17,319
Speaker 3: There is a certain baseline of production for even the

1128
00:54:17,320 --> 00:54:20,239
Speaker 3: worst NFL passing attacks. No doubt, the Saints are going

1129
00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:22,279
Speaker 3: to have one of the worst passing attacks in the league.

1130
00:54:22,440 --> 00:54:23,400
Speaker 2: It's going to be.

1131
00:54:23,360 --> 00:54:26,440
Speaker 3: A small pie, But the Saints don't have many other

1132
00:54:26,520 --> 00:54:29,680
Speaker 3: credible pass catchers, So Chris o'lave is going to carve

1133
00:54:29,760 --> 00:54:32,680
Speaker 3: himself off a pretty big chunk of that small pie.

1134
00:54:33,640 --> 00:54:37,280
Speaker 1: Debro, you are the biggest, uh and or only Saints

1135
00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:39,160
Speaker 1: fan that I know. What do you think about a

1136
00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:39,879
Speaker 1: lave this year?

1137
00:54:40,239 --> 00:54:44,120
Speaker 4: Well, you must have missed the the memos historically Saints fan.

1138
00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:45,840
Speaker 4: I guess I was going to say that that I

1139
00:54:45,920 --> 00:54:48,480
Speaker 4: have disavowed my fandom. I'm no longer a Saints fan

1140
00:54:48,520 --> 00:54:51,440
Speaker 4: until Mickey Loomis is gone and this team actually has

1141
00:54:51,440 --> 00:54:52,919
Speaker 4: a real direction forward.

1142
00:54:52,960 --> 00:54:55,880
Speaker 6: And when at that day I would return to Saints

1143
00:54:55,920 --> 00:55:00,239
Speaker 6: fanom hohodep baby. But until then, Nope, I'm basically with

1144
00:55:00,280 --> 00:55:03,160
Speaker 6: consensus here. I've got Chris Alave as wide receiver thirty

1145
00:55:03,160 --> 00:55:04,680
Speaker 6: in my ranks. I think he's gonna be a volume

1146
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:09,239
Speaker 6: driven wide receiver three. I hope that he can outproduce that.

1147
00:55:09,800 --> 00:55:12,080
Speaker 6: For me, I'm not worried about the concussions and stuff

1148
00:55:12,120 --> 00:55:15,840
Speaker 6: like that, Like I understand the worry with that. For me,

1149
00:55:15,920 --> 00:55:17,920
Speaker 6: it just comes down to the constitution of this offense

1150
00:55:18,080 --> 00:55:19,760
Speaker 6: and what does he get out of quarterback play?

1151
00:55:20,040 --> 00:55:24,320
Speaker 4: What does that do to affect his touchback touchdown expectations?

1152
00:55:24,800 --> 00:55:27,920
Speaker 4: So could he outperform this based off of talent, based

1153
00:55:27,920 --> 00:55:30,560
Speaker 4: off of if Tyler Shuck cannot just be horrible, if

1154
00:55:30,560 --> 00:55:34,560
Speaker 4: Spencer Rattler cannot be just replacement of a quarterback, then yeah,

1155
00:55:34,560 --> 00:55:35,960
Speaker 4: he can out produce this. I don't think it's a

1156
00:55:35,960 --> 00:55:38,160
Speaker 4: talent thing. I think it's just for me. It's the quarterback.

1157
00:55:38,719 --> 00:55:40,279
Speaker 3: You have them ranked higher than I do. I think

1158
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:42,840
Speaker 3: I'm in wide receiver thirty two if you're at thirty.

1159
00:55:43,560 --> 00:55:47,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean we're both behind consensus. What is consensus

1160
00:55:47,640 --> 00:55:52,480
Speaker 4: in ECR At least when I'm looking at WORM, we're.

1161
00:55:52,680 --> 00:55:54,040
Speaker 2: ADP is thirty six.

1162
00:55:54,120 --> 00:55:58,319
Speaker 1: So ECR ECR is more more in line case is

1163
00:55:58,360 --> 00:56:03,800
Speaker 1: where yeah? Actually yeah twenty nine. Yeah, his ECR is

1164
00:56:03,800 --> 00:56:06,680
Speaker 1: at higher in PPR. He's wide receiver twenty six actually

1165
00:56:06,719 --> 00:56:07,280
Speaker 1: in ECR.

1166
00:56:08,080 --> 00:56:09,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, So I mean, to be honest, like we could

1167
00:56:09,920 --> 00:56:14,319
Speaker 4: see him to fits's point, then we're above ADP. We

1168
00:56:14,400 --> 00:56:16,840
Speaker 4: could see him go the closer we get to training

1169
00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:18,880
Speaker 4: camps week one and stuff like that. I won't be

1170
00:56:18,920 --> 00:56:22,680
Speaker 4: surprised if ECR starts to mirror what ADP is already

1171
00:56:22,680 --> 00:56:23,600
Speaker 4: doing to Chris A. Lave.

1172
00:56:23,960 --> 00:56:26,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, people are people are gonna be terrified by the

1173
00:56:26,400 --> 00:56:27,040
Speaker 3: quarterback thing.

1174
00:56:27,080 --> 00:56:27,680
Speaker 2: They're gonna be.

1175
00:56:27,680 --> 00:56:29,960
Speaker 4: Uh yeah, I mean well, and then I mean, come on,

1176
00:56:30,040 --> 00:56:32,560
Speaker 4: guys like Travis Hunter is gonna hop him in eighty

1177
00:56:32,680 --> 00:56:36,680
Speaker 4: and ECR, Tedoro McMillan's gonna hop him in ECR, probably

1178
00:56:36,719 --> 00:56:39,920
Speaker 4: Calvin Ridley, George Pickens, Jordan Addison. So I think a

1179
00:56:40,000 --> 00:56:42,640
Speaker 4: Labve is probably gonna settle into that wide receiver thirty

1180
00:56:42,680 --> 00:56:45,520
Speaker 4: five to wide receiver thirty nine kind of bucket. So

1181
00:56:45,680 --> 00:56:47,080
Speaker 4: I agree, all.

1182
00:56:47,000 --> 00:56:49,520
Speaker 1: Right, Debro, who's our last risky player? This is somebody

1183
00:56:49,520 --> 00:56:51,440
Speaker 1: that you might draft despite the risks?

1184
00:56:51,920 --> 00:56:55,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, man, I mean whether it's return from injury, suspension,

1185
00:56:55,640 --> 00:56:58,400
Speaker 4: how the targets are divvied up, and the role that

1186
00:56:58,440 --> 00:57:01,200
Speaker 4: he plays in this offense. I was out to begin

1187
00:57:01,239 --> 00:57:04,240
Speaker 4: the offseason and I'm back in. Baby it's Rashie Rice,

1188
00:57:04,480 --> 00:57:06,759
Speaker 4: and I'm curious how how much being fits he fight

1189
00:57:06,840 --> 00:57:10,760
Speaker 4: about this one. I think Rachie Rice has an insane

1190
00:57:10,840 --> 00:57:14,160
Speaker 4: upside just looking at how he started last year, and

1191
00:57:14,200 --> 00:57:16,080
Speaker 4: even if he wanted to tackle on how he finished

1192
00:57:16,080 --> 00:57:19,479
Speaker 4: the year previous, I mean, dude, weeks one through three,

1193
00:57:19,840 --> 00:57:24,120
Speaker 4: he was on just a ridiculous pace, like thirty one

1194
00:57:24,120 --> 00:57:27,160
Speaker 4: point five percent target share, three point six yards per

1195
00:57:27,240 --> 00:57:30,240
Speaker 4: route run, a forty one point two percent first reach

1196
00:57:30,280 --> 00:57:33,200
Speaker 4: here he was at point one point eight eight first

1197
00:57:33,200 --> 00:57:35,200
Speaker 4: downs per route run. And I know that's a lot

1198
00:57:35,240 --> 00:57:38,080
Speaker 4: of numbers for people, but just just to the hundred

1199
00:57:38,080 --> 00:57:40,320
Speaker 4: foot view of that, that would have put him on

1200
00:57:40,400 --> 00:57:43,960
Speaker 4: the overall season for all qualifying wide receivers. If he

1201
00:57:44,080 --> 00:57:47,320
Speaker 4: kept up that type of insane pace, those were top

1202
00:57:47,360 --> 00:57:49,880
Speaker 4: three numbers. He would have been ranked second, first, third,

1203
00:57:49,920 --> 00:57:53,480
Speaker 4: in first in those four categories. Had he kept that up,

1204
00:57:53,720 --> 00:57:56,480
Speaker 4: the twenty one point six points per game that he

1205
00:57:56,560 --> 00:57:59,880
Speaker 4: scored in that stretch would have finished second behind only

1206
00:57:59,880 --> 00:58:03,000
Speaker 4: freaking Jamar Chase last year. So I'm not telling you

1207
00:58:03,040 --> 00:58:06,920
Speaker 4: that he he keeps up that type of pace, but

1208
00:58:07,000 --> 00:58:09,240
Speaker 4: based off of where Rashi Rice is going, I don't

1209
00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:13,200
Speaker 4: think Xavier Worthy takes the Rashi Rice role in this offense.

1210
00:58:13,240 --> 00:58:17,160
Speaker 4: Because Worthy proved he can play the Rice role. I

1211
00:58:17,160 --> 00:58:19,240
Speaker 4: don't think Rice can play the field stretching role that

1212
00:58:19,240 --> 00:58:21,640
Speaker 4: they're gonna ask Worthy to go right back into this year.

1213
00:58:21,720 --> 00:58:25,520
Speaker 4: So whether it's you know, all the injury, the suspension

1214
00:58:25,640 --> 00:58:29,280
Speaker 4: still looming, we don't know. I'm willing to deal with

1215
00:58:29,320 --> 00:58:31,920
Speaker 4: all the risk that comes to Rashi Rice right now

1216
00:58:32,560 --> 00:58:34,800
Speaker 4: and draft him pretty aggressively.

1217
00:58:34,760 --> 00:58:35,640
Speaker 1: If it's what you think.

1218
00:58:36,520 --> 00:58:40,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm pretty conflicted on Rice and the fact that

1219
00:58:40,920 --> 00:58:44,120
Speaker 3: I am not you know, all gas no breaks like

1220
00:58:44,160 --> 00:58:46,160
Speaker 3: a lot of other people are on Rashi Rice has

1221
00:58:46,160 --> 00:58:49,560
Speaker 3: me pretty well behind consensus just because and and my

1222
00:58:49,680 --> 00:58:55,240
Speaker 3: hesitation is related to Xavier Worthy, because yeah, when Rashi

1223
00:58:55,320 --> 00:59:00,840
Speaker 3: Rice was just doing tremendous things twenty twenty three, in

1224
00:59:00,920 --> 00:59:02,840
Speaker 3: early twenty twenty four, he was the only game in

1225
00:59:02,880 --> 00:59:06,160
Speaker 3: town a wide receiver. The early twenty twenty four usage

1226
00:59:06,160 --> 00:59:09,120
Speaker 3: of Xavier Worthy was very much just in a gadget role,

1227
00:59:09,600 --> 00:59:11,800
Speaker 3: like he was a gadget guy for them those those

1228
00:59:11,800 --> 00:59:15,320
Speaker 3: first few games until Rice got hurt. Then by the

1229
00:59:15,400 --> 00:59:18,000
Speaker 3: end of the season, if you factor in playoff games,

1230
00:59:18,080 --> 00:59:21,520
Speaker 3: Xavier Worthy had fifty receptions over his last eight games

1231
00:59:22,040 --> 00:59:24,520
Speaker 3: so pro rated over a full season, that's one hundred

1232
00:59:24,600 --> 00:59:28,400
Speaker 3: catch pace. Like, I don't think that Genie is going

1233
00:59:28,440 --> 00:59:31,640
Speaker 3: back in the bottle man, and maybe Rashie Rice is

1234
00:59:31,680 --> 00:59:36,320
Speaker 3: still like the leading leads the Chiefs and targets and receptions.

1235
00:59:36,360 --> 00:59:38,240
Speaker 2: I could totally understand that happening.

1236
00:59:38,560 --> 00:59:41,120
Speaker 3: But I don't think Worthy suddenly becomes a thirty catch

1237
00:59:41,200 --> 00:59:43,440
Speaker 3: guy like he is going to be involved in this

1238
00:59:43,480 --> 00:59:46,240
Speaker 3: offense because he is a good player. So I just

1239
00:59:46,280 --> 00:59:48,760
Speaker 3: don't see Rashie Rice getting the same sort of target

1240
00:59:48,800 --> 00:59:50,960
Speaker 3: load he had in twenty twenty three in early twenty

1241
00:59:50,960 --> 00:59:51,520
Speaker 3: twenty four.

1242
00:59:52,480 --> 00:59:55,360
Speaker 1: Is there a chance that both those guys end up

1243
00:59:55,360 --> 00:59:58,720
Speaker 1: being correct answers this year? And like Kelsey takes another

1244
00:59:58,760 --> 01:00:01,000
Speaker 1: step back, but mahomes kind of you know, coming off

1245
01:00:01,000 --> 01:00:03,200
Speaker 1: this blood in the Super Bowl, it almost is like

1246
01:00:03,200 --> 01:00:05,760
Speaker 1: a bit of a revenge tour, Like, hey, we're still

1247
01:00:05,800 --> 01:00:08,560
Speaker 1: the Chiefs and those two are just like one A

1248
01:00:08,640 --> 01:00:10,760
Speaker 1: and one B in this offense. Can you see that

1249
01:00:10,840 --> 01:00:12,520
Speaker 1: happening fits or do you think it's gonna be one

1250
01:00:12,560 --> 01:00:12,880
Speaker 1: or the other?

1251
01:00:13,200 --> 01:00:13,400
Speaker 4: Yeah?

1252
01:00:13,440 --> 01:00:15,360
Speaker 3: And I'm trying to be consistent with that. So I've

1253
01:00:15,360 --> 01:00:18,280
Speaker 3: got like Rice ranked right now as a mid range

1254
01:00:18,280 --> 01:00:21,880
Speaker 3: wide receiver two and Worthy as a backhand wide receiver.

1255
01:00:21,640 --> 01:00:23,680
Speaker 1: To Dee bro what do you think about you know,

1256
01:00:23,720 --> 01:00:24,919
Speaker 1: I know you said that they don't really to play

1257
01:00:24,920 --> 01:00:26,440
Speaker 1: the same role. Do you think there's room for both

1258
01:00:26,480 --> 01:00:28,560
Speaker 1: of them to be really strong Fantasy contributors.

1259
01:00:29,480 --> 01:00:33,360
Speaker 4: I don't in the roles that they're that I'm forecasting

1260
01:00:33,400 --> 01:00:35,600
Speaker 4: for them to play. I think Rice goes back into

1261
01:00:35,640 --> 01:00:37,880
Speaker 4: the role that he was playing last year, which is

1262
01:00:37,920 --> 01:00:39,919
Speaker 4: the same role he was playing in twenty twenty three.

1263
01:00:40,480 --> 01:00:44,400
Speaker 4: I think Worthy, who was the Worthy, didn't break out

1264
01:00:44,440 --> 01:00:47,439
Speaker 4: last year until he started playing the Rashi Rice role.

1265
01:00:47,560 --> 01:00:49,720
Speaker 4: And I think that what's kind of get lost in

1266
01:00:49,760 --> 01:00:53,440
Speaker 4: the saucer is Patrick Mahomes has been objectively a terrible

1267
01:00:53,480 --> 01:00:56,200
Speaker 4: downfill passer over the last two years. So I think

1268
01:00:56,200 --> 01:00:58,760
Speaker 4: there's a big divide here. I think that their offense

1269
01:00:59,280 --> 01:01:00,680
Speaker 4: because I think a lot of people look at this

1270
01:01:00,720 --> 01:01:02,800
Speaker 4: and say, okay, like they're gonna go back to chucking

1271
01:01:02,840 --> 01:01:04,560
Speaker 4: it down the field and all the kind of things

1272
01:01:04,600 --> 01:01:06,400
Speaker 4: Like I'm saying it with my ranks, Like, I don't

1273
01:01:06,440 --> 01:01:09,320
Speaker 4: think that that happens because I don't know if Patrick

1274
01:01:09,360 --> 01:01:11,480
Speaker 4: Mahomes still has that in his skill set to be

1275
01:01:12,120 --> 01:01:15,080
Speaker 4: an electric deep ball passer, like because he hasn't. He's

1276
01:01:15,120 --> 01:01:18,720
Speaker 4: been horrible over the last two years not just bad,

1277
01:01:18,800 --> 01:01:21,360
Speaker 4: but like one of the worst deep ball passers in

1278
01:01:21,440 --> 01:01:24,480
Speaker 4: the entire NFL. And because of the name Patrick Mahomes,

1279
01:01:24,480 --> 01:01:26,080
Speaker 4: it just kind of gets lost in the conversation.

1280
01:01:26,840 --> 01:01:28,960
Speaker 1: We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. That was

1281
01:01:29,080 --> 01:01:31,000
Speaker 1: a bunch of different risky players to think twice about

1282
01:01:31,040 --> 01:01:33,160
Speaker 1: drafting a twenty twenty five plus a couple that we

1283
01:01:33,200 --> 01:01:36,360
Speaker 1: are interested in drafting for debro and fits. Thanks everybody

1284
01:01:36,360 --> 01:01:38,680
Speaker 1: for tennereday and I'm Ryan Warmley. We'll see again next time.

1285
01:01:39,120 --> 01:01:42,240
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.

1286
01:01:42,400 --> 01:01:44,920
Speaker 1: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

1287
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