Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, welcome back to another episode of the Betting
Speaker 1: Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. With me,
Speaker 1: of course, is Matt Pearl. You can find us on
Speaker 1: Twitter at Dan Harris Ady and at Sports Talk Matt.
Speaker 2: Matt. What's going on?
Speaker 3: I am ready to go here. I feel a five
Speaker 3: and oh coming in the DraftKings. I like the slate.
Speaker 3: I'm hot and ready to go today.
Speaker 1: All right, you are hot, that is true. I hate
Speaker 1: this slate. So this is gonna be very interesting as
Speaker 1: we talked through it. What did you do in the circle?
Speaker 1: By the way, how did you go in the circa.
Speaker 3: Breaking two, three and two, five and five in both contests?
Speaker 1: All right, so yeah, let's recap the where we are
Speaker 1: in the DK contest before we get in. We are
Speaker 1: five and five. We were two and three last week.
Speaker 1: We had the Eagles getting one and a half from
Speaker 1: the Rams. It was a terrible loss. We had the
Speaker 1: Vikings getting three and a half from the That was
Speaker 1: even worse laws And to be clear, that was the
Speaker 1: one that I really liked.
Speaker 3: The cut.
Speaker 1: We did hit on the cards, giving six and a
Speaker 1: half to Washington. We took two other games which were
Speaker 1: the Raiders getting five and a half from the Saints
Speaker 1: and the Cowboys laying four and a half to the Falcons.
Speaker 1: I told you on the show to make sure to
Speaker 1: follow us on Twitter again at Dan Harris Hadi at
Speaker 1: Sports Talk, Matt, because we you know, it's early in
Speaker 1: the week we want to talk about.
Speaker 2: That was on Wednesday night.
Speaker 1: By the way, We're going to be doing this on
Speaker 1: Thursday night from now and going forward, just so we
Speaker 1: can make sure we have as much information as possible.
Speaker 2: I said to follow us because we might change. We
Speaker 2: did change.
Speaker 1: We moved off those two bets, so we moved off
Speaker 1: to bets that we would have gone one and one
Speaker 1: on you know, not a huge deal, Matt. I mean,
Speaker 1: I think we both just sort of felt like, especially
Speaker 1: where you weren't in Vegas, it was just such a
Speaker 1: so much money. So all the public was just running
Speaker 1: in of course to back the Raiders in that first game.
Speaker 3: Which what was so funny about that though, is that
Speaker 3: and this is where I need to be careful. Okay,
Speaker 3: that is true except for everywhere outside Nevada. Correct, And
Speaker 3: I didn't know that because I'm in my literally my
Speaker 3: Vegas bubble right right. So in the Vegas Bubble. It
Speaker 3: was like, oh my god, the line crashed in Vegas.
Speaker 3: It closed at three and a half. I couldn't believe it,
Speaker 3: and I was nervous. That freaked me out by that.
Speaker 3: But everywhere else it was eighty percent of the money
Speaker 3: on the Saints. So that was my bad.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, no, no, I mean it doesn't matter. And
Speaker 1: I liked the Cowboys. But what's funny is that Matt
Speaker 1: and I talked, because Matt and I talked anyway, just
Speaker 1: about this stuff, and he actually he's in the circle
Speaker 1: with a partner and he was taking the other side
Speaker 1: of that game. He had the falcons, which you know,
Speaker 1: turned out to be correct. So I was like, I
Speaker 1: don't I don't feel that strong about it.
Speaker 2: Let's think more about it. And so we moved off that.
Speaker 1: We went to the Panthers getting nine and a half
Speaker 1: against the Bucks for one of them, which was close.
Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I mean, it very easily could
Speaker 1: have covered, but they didn't. So that's where that was.
Speaker 1: But we also moved What was the other game that
Speaker 1: we moved to that we hit on, Matt am I
Speaker 1: drawing a blank.
Speaker 3: Now, the game we hit on was I'm blinking on it.
Speaker 1: Oh, the Ravens the rankings. Yes, the Ravens laying seven
Speaker 1: a half. By the way, Matt is always just a Ravens.
Speaker 1: And Matt said, you said you talked to a bookmaker
Speaker 1: or somebody who said they would bet that all the
Speaker 1: way up to ten.
Speaker 2: Correct.
Speaker 3: Yep.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So we were like, all right, that's that's that
Speaker 1: sounds good to me. And again laying on the Ravens
Speaker 1: here early, because the Ravens play to rip your heart out.
Speaker 1: They don't just play to you know, barely cover the spread,
Speaker 1: barely win. They played to rip your heart out. So again,
Speaker 1: really a distinction, that difference. We went too and three.
Speaker 1: We're five and five overall, so that's not good. But
Speaker 1: the good news, at least in the DraftKings contest is
Speaker 1: it was a bad week for everyone. Twenty four percent
Speaker 1: of participants took the Chiefs laying eight and a half. Wow,
Speaker 1: twenty one percent were on the vikings with us forty percent.
Speaker 2: We're on the Eagles.
Speaker 1: As Matt and I talked about, you know, I messaged
Speaker 1: Matt on the live stream that Matt does.
Speaker 2: Which you should be tuning into YouTube.
Speaker 1: Dot com slash betting pros every Sunday morning Eastern eleven
Speaker 1: am to noon, so that's eight to nine. Where Matt is,
Speaker 1: he goes through the slate and I'm going to be
Speaker 1: popping in and I'll I'll write them questions anything like that.
Speaker 1: Forty percent we're on the Eagles and twenty one percent
Speaker 1: we're on the Jets against the Niners. You should not
Speaker 1: be on the Jets against anyone ever, So everybody took
Speaker 1: a back. Here we sit two hundred and forty third
Speaker 1: out of six hundred and ninety one, so that is
Speaker 1: not terrible. Two undefeated teams are still in the contest,
Speaker 1: but neither one of them made a pick last week. Remember,
Speaker 1: you can take two weeks off whatever reason. Maybe they
Speaker 1: were like, man, I was really hot that first.
Speaker 3: Week, until you're doing week two. To take it very weird,
Speaker 3: very weird to me, Like I'm only you got like
Speaker 3: a family emergency or something like, right, so weird weak
Speaker 3: to take off, especially after a five and oh start.
Speaker 3: Why not keep rolling? You're clearly seeing the board clearly,
Speaker 3: so let's go there. Deal.
Speaker 1: There are two undefeated teams, but they're both five and out.
Speaker 1: They're not ten and out. Four teams have picked nine
Speaker 1: out of ten games correctly, that's it. Everybody else is
Speaker 1: eight and eight out of ten or worse. So we're
Speaker 1: still right in the mix there. But here's what we're
Speaker 1: gonna do for the show today. Usually what I do
Speaker 1: is I say, all right, man, let's go through the game.
Speaker 1: Do you give me your picks? You like, no, No,
Speaker 1: We're done with that. We're now going to go back
Speaker 1: and forth, back and forth a little bit. Now Matt
Speaker 1: loves some games this week. I'm like, all right, I
Speaker 1: kind of have a lean on you know, four maybe five,
Speaker 1: but I'm not. I'm I'm really like one game, which
Speaker 1: I think we're both gonna be on.
Speaker 2: But that's really it.
Speaker 1: Some of you as that have asked for player props, Matt,
Speaker 1: I don't know about you. Like where I'm at DraftKings
Speaker 1: and especially in any of the online books, they're just
Speaker 1: not really out points. Bet has these props that you
Speaker 1: can do that are, you know, over under fifty yards,
Speaker 1: rushing over under seventy five yards, rushing at massive odds.
Speaker 2: I just think it's silly.
Speaker 3: To do, so I'll plug the live stream. That's what
Speaker 3: the live streams for. Okay, correct live stream is going
Speaker 3: to be a props player prop, I'm gonna give you
Speaker 3: my picks on the Daily Juice so you can hear
Speaker 3: my plays on Sunday for the Daily Juice, and chances are,
Speaker 3: unless there's like a gigantic crazy injury or a massive
Speaker 3: line swing, there's not going to be much change to
Speaker 3: my Daily Juice plays on Sunday morning heading into the
Speaker 3: Sunday morning live stream. But the player props will one
Speaker 3: hundred percent be you know. That's where I'm gonna give
Speaker 3: you the player props. So if you want the player
Speaker 3: props live stream every Sunday morning at eleven o'clock Eastern
Speaker 3: on the Betting Pros YouTube channel.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and don't forget to subscribe. And if you want
Speaker 1: to be notified when mac go's live, click the notification
Speaker 1: button that I'll let you know. But also I do
Speaker 1: props because I do player projections because of Fantasy's that's
Speaker 1: where I'm at. So I will message Matt. I'm not
Speaker 1: gonna be on, but I will give Matt some of
Speaker 1: my player props that I like based on my projection
Speaker 1: so we can relay them there.
Speaker 2: All right, we've got to get into it.
Speaker 1: We've been talking a lot, but before we do, I'm
Speaker 1: just gonna say I hope that Matt does not have
Speaker 1: a particularly strong lean on the Saints lanth three and
Speaker 1: a half to the Packers, because I do not. But
Speaker 1: if the line were instead, if either team scores a touchdown,
Speaker 1: you win one hundred dollars, then I would take that,
Speaker 1: because that's what it is. If you go to bettingpros
Speaker 1: dot com slash bet MGM through that link, if you
Speaker 1: bet a dollar on either team to win that game,
Speaker 1: you win one hundred dollars in free bets.
Speaker 2: If either team.
Speaker 1: Scores a touchdown either way, you win one hundred dollars
Speaker 1: in free bets. There is going to be a touchdown
Speaker 1: scored in that game. I can virtually guarantee it you
Speaker 1: will win. This available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, and
Speaker 1: West Virginia again betting pros dot Com slash bet MGM.
Speaker 1: Do not turn down free money, all right, Matt, start off?
Speaker 1: Don't say sans and backers to lead off off here?
Speaker 2: Okay, I'll give you now.
Speaker 3: Am I giving you my most confident play or just
Speaker 3: one that I like?
Speaker 1: And you know what, man, the world is your oyster.
Speaker 1: Whatever you want, I'm gonna go with probably what I
Speaker 1: like the most to what I like the least. So
Speaker 1: if you want to start that way or do whatever
Speaker 1: you want, it doesn't all right.
Speaker 3: To play that. I'm the most confident on The Patriots
Speaker 3: are going to kick the living daylights of the Raiders.
Speaker 1: Okay, so we're just to be clear. We'll talk about
Speaker 1: that very briefly. But that was also my most confident pick.
Speaker 1: So we we're locking at it.
Speaker 3: But they're going to absolutely wipe the field with the Raiders.
Speaker 3: And this is a classic spot for a young football team.
Speaker 3: Josh Jacobs was in that practice on Thursday. The Patriots
Speaker 3: are going to take away Darren Waller. Stefan Gilmour is
Speaker 3: furious after what happened with DK Metcalf eating his lunch.
Speaker 3: If the Raiders score more than fourteen points, I'm going
Speaker 3: to be shocked.
Speaker 2: Oh all right, I'm not going to go that far.
Speaker 1: But yeah, this is a very classic Belichick against the
Speaker 1: spread after a loss is miraculous.
Speaker 2: I mean, he's, you know.
Speaker 1: Obviously, if not the greatest coach of all time, one
Speaker 1: of so he's mad.
Speaker 2: I mean you look at the picture. The picture says it,
Speaker 2: all right. He looks like God did, right.
Speaker 1: I mean, he is not going to go to sleep
Speaker 1: until he fixes all these old things in a game.
Speaker 2: By the way, that the Patriots were, you know, extremely.
Speaker 1: Close to winning one play, so one play exactly, So
Speaker 1: I love that play too. I really think that this
Speaker 1: is something where you mentioned it. I think they're going
Speaker 1: to take away a waller because that's exactly what they do.
Speaker 1: I think they're going to stack the box and they're
Speaker 1: going to say, okay, go ahead, beat us over the top,
Speaker 1: Derek Carr, and again they're traveling east.
Speaker 2: Don't forget that.
Speaker 1: It's just it's got all the hallmarks of a Patriots
Speaker 1: beat down. So it is five and a half. It
Speaker 1: is the Matt paraltism. But you're throwing it out right now.
Speaker 1: I will say one thing. On betting pros dot com,
Speaker 1: we have consensus lines. The consensus line is.
Speaker 3: Actually five, so it's going down.
Speaker 2: Yeah. So why Why is that though?
Speaker 3: Because the public is going to bet with their eyes
Speaker 3: off of Monday night football. Everyone everyone's flush with money.
Speaker 3: Everyone watched the Raiders beat the Saints. Oh my gosh.
Speaker 3: Bet MGM announced today that their number one liability for
Speaker 3: any team to win the Super Bowl are the Las
Speaker 3: Vegas Raiders. Okay, yeah, they are the new Cleveland Browns.
Speaker 3: Fade fade fade.
Speaker 1: So if you look on bettingpros dot com, which gives
Speaker 1: you the consensus lines, it also gives you lines of
Speaker 1: the various sports book it's basically torn between five and
Speaker 1: five and a half. If you look, you know, we
Speaker 1: have various experts from around the industry who make picks.
Speaker 1: New England is being picked with the spread right now
Speaker 1: at minus five. So that's you know, at eighty three percent.
Speaker 1: Eighty three percent of experts are taking them. It's just
Speaker 1: something where it's just it's the best game. It's the
Speaker 1: best game of the week.
Speaker 3: And my bookmakers could not have this game on the board.
Speaker 3: They take it down. Yeah, just chuck it up. You
Speaker 3: just say, okay, we lost, move on, okay, all right.
Speaker 1: So here's a game that I like, which I here's
Speaker 1: here's where I get a little worried about.
Speaker 2: This in the classic sort of way you try to
Speaker 2: think about gambling, which is the bylow sell high. Teams
Speaker 2: are you know, never as bad.
Speaker 1: As they look sort of, you know the last week
Speaker 1: where they get absolutely blown out. Teams are never as
Speaker 1: good as they look when they're really winning. I thought
Speaker 1: that maybe with the Eagles last week with the Rams,
Speaker 1: and again that was the quote unquote sharp side. That's
Speaker 1: where the money came in. But for me, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: take the Titans, and you can let me know. The
Speaker 1: Titans minus two and a half in Minnesota. Now, if
Speaker 1: there were fans in Minnesota, I might be a little
Speaker 1: less confident on it. And this is a spot where
Speaker 1: you would say, well, I'm gonna buy low on Minnesota
Speaker 1: right now and I'm gonna sell high.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's not like the Titans.
Speaker 1: Have looked that good. They barely squeaked by the Jaguars.
Speaker 1: They barely squeaked by the Broncos, although they should have
Speaker 1: won that game. They're probably gonna be without aj Brown
Speaker 1: here still. But Minnesota and that defense right now, I
Speaker 1: don't know if they're quite this bad that secondary, but
Speaker 1: I do know that as of right now, whether or
Speaker 1: not it's just because they're young and they're still getting
Speaker 1: their communication worked out right now, they're terrible. They are
Speaker 1: absolutely terrible. Tennessee is incredibly well coached. I like Mike
Speaker 1: Zimmer as a coach, but he cannot figure this out
Speaker 1: this quickly with what he has.
Speaker 2: The fact that this is under a field goal.
Speaker 1: For me, if it was over a field goal, I
Speaker 1: would I would be concerned. It's a key number three.
Speaker 1: But at two and a half, that's probably the game
Speaker 1: other than the one game that I love is the Patriots.
Speaker 1: Other than that, that's the game that I like second most.
Speaker 1: So what do you think about that one?
Speaker 3: I'm with you. It's on my list, and it is
Speaker 3: a It is a square play and it's going to
Speaker 3: be a number. Where it opened at one and a half,
Speaker 3: it's been bet to two and a half. I think
Speaker 3: by the time it get to kick off it maybe three,
Speaker 3: but being under three is a key. So here's the
Speaker 3: number that everyone's talking about. If you're on Twitter, you've
Speaker 3: probably seen it a million times. Teams that are oh
Speaker 3: into against the spread heading into week three oh and
Speaker 3: two against the spread, not oh and two overall oh
Speaker 3: and two against the spread, are twenty two and seven
Speaker 3: against the number in week three.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 3: So everyone's going to run around and say that they're
Speaker 3: gonna hamm and this is one of those games that
Speaker 3: fit into that narrative. Okay, so oh and two against
Speaker 3: the spread the Titans. The thing that the problem I've
Speaker 3: got with that is that trends don't mean really anything
Speaker 3: going into a game. It's all about matchups. It's not
Speaker 3: about trends. It's about how do teams match up against
Speaker 3: each other. The secondary for this Vikings team is just
Speaker 3: got awful and it's really really young, so you can't
Speaker 3: fix it overnight. The other problem is Kevin Sefanski. His
Speaker 3: offense is no longer there and Kirk Cousins looks atrocious.
Speaker 3: So I don't know if you fix that in one
Speaker 3: game in one week. Given that, the Titans are not happy.
Speaker 3: They're two and zero, but they're not happy about the
Speaker 3: way things are going. I mean, they didn't cover last week.
Speaker 3: They nearly they won the game by three, and you know,
Speaker 3: it wasn't that great to kind of watch. It was like,
Speaker 3: oh my gosh, are they gonna blow this against Jacksonville?
Speaker 3: So they almost wound up being one and one, and
Speaker 3: then we know the kicking problems we had on Monday
Speaker 3: night two weeks ago. So the Titans have a lot
Speaker 3: to play for here and they're very angry about the
Speaker 3: way things are going. So you're right home field for
Speaker 3: the Vikings always one of the biggest deals. But pro
Speaker 3: football focus is rating this defense near the bottom of
Speaker 3: the entire NFL right now. So yeah, I'm taking the
Speaker 3: Titans here minus two and a half. I think we
Speaker 3: win the game. I'm with you on under under a
Speaker 3: field goal. Yeah, let's take the Titans.
Speaker 1: So there is one book out there again and got
Speaker 1: the consensus lines to see the book. Fox bet is
Speaker 1: at three already, so I wouldn't be surprised if it
Speaker 1: moves there. And again our experts seventy five percent of
Speaker 1: them as well, are going with the Titans laying two
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 2: Again.
Speaker 1: That's why I think this is what we talked about,
Speaker 1: man at the beginning of the season, where a lack
Speaker 1: of continuity, be young team that's inexperienced, you need These
Speaker 1: preseason games were pretty critical to working out a lot
Speaker 1: of these issues, and they just don't have it, and
Speaker 1: there's no way they're going to work it out after
Speaker 1: how terrible they looked last week. So I like and
Speaker 1: backing a team like the Titans, by the way, makes
Speaker 1: me just feel because I'm so confident in the coaching staff,
Speaker 1: it just makes me feel like.
Speaker 2: It's like a security blanket a little bit.
Speaker 1: I'm like, well, Vrabel's not going to go there, and
Speaker 1: they're not going to just be like, oh yeah, we're
Speaker 1: gonna look past this team. It's not gonna work that way.
Speaker 1: So all right, you want to lock that one in.
Speaker 1: Then both of those two.
Speaker 3: All right, very good, good Titans.
Speaker 2: Those two done, done. Go to your next one.
Speaker 3: Chargers minus six and a half against the Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 3: On paper, Carol defensively is the worst defense in the NFL.
Speaker 3: Justin Herbert getting the start is a good thing for
Speaker 3: this team. I like Tyrod Taylor. Herbert is really really interesting.
Speaker 3: I think this kid is going to cause a ton
Speaker 3: of problems. And here's the big issue. Yes, no Derwin
Speaker 3: James is not there for the Chargers, but no run CMC.
Speaker 3: How are the Panthers going to score? I mean, it's
Speaker 3: all on Bridgewater now. And if you're gonna have him
Speaker 3: back there, this is a pass rush. It's gonna get
Speaker 3: up the field and get after Carolina. I'm laying less
Speaker 3: than a touchdown here, Chargers minus six and a half.
Speaker 1: All right, So I would say that I lean in
Speaker 1: that direction. I don't absolutely love it. I agree though,
Speaker 1: that the lack of CMC here, I'm surprised that this
Speaker 1: is under a touchdown.
Speaker 2: I really am Herbert I agree.
Speaker 1: Surprising to me because I talked pretty poorly about Herbert that,
Speaker 1: you know, just in terms of what his value would
Speaker 1: be in his rookie season. You think about really last week,
Speaker 1: the fact that he did not know he was starting
Speaker 1: until legitimately the coin toss is insane, and he played really,
Speaker 1: really we well, and they think he makes that offense better.
Speaker 1: My one worry here and I think that seems he
Speaker 1: makes that Panther's offense much better.
Speaker 2: I think Mike Davis is a capable.
Speaker 1: Fill and not anywhere close to it, but they do
Speaker 1: have a lot of capable wide receivers in DJ Moore
Speaker 1: and Robbie Anderson, and they're going to get Curtis Samuel
Speaker 1: Moore involved. My worry here is maybe it was just
Speaker 1: because they were trying to keep the ball out of
Speaker 1: Patrick mahomes hands. But you saw what Anthony Lynn really
Speaker 1: desperately wants to do, which is run the ball as
Speaker 1: much as he possibly can.
Speaker 2: Kelly, Joshua Kelly had.
Speaker 1: Twenty three carries last week and he's not even the
Speaker 1: primary ball handler. You know, they could have probably put
Speaker 1: that game away if they were a little more adventurous.
Speaker 1: My worry here is adventurous.
Speaker 3: Okay, all right, Anthony Lynn had a backbone.
Speaker 2: You mean I'm being diplomatic?
Speaker 3: What grow up?
Speaker 2: So I think.
Speaker 1: That that is the way though, that he naturally wants
Speaker 1: to go. And yeah, it's under a touchdown, so that
Speaker 1: does serve make it a little easier. But I'm still
Speaker 1: not convinced that they'd be beyond the back door cover
Speaker 1: in this game, because I do think that even if
Speaker 1: they get ahead, they are the type of team that's
Speaker 1: gonna be like, oh, you know, we're just.
Speaker 3: Gonna run the back Chargers defense. You're gonna pass and
Speaker 3: throw that ball forty times a game. That Charger defense
Speaker 3: is gonna eat him. Bridgewater is gonna be run for
Speaker 3: his life.
Speaker 2: It is fair.
Speaker 3: It is a line is not good and no node
Speaker 3: I don't again, this is another game like I don't
Speaker 3: know who scores more Panthers or Raiders, but neither one
Speaker 3: scores much.
Speaker 1: All right, so what we're gonna put that one in
Speaker 1: pencil on the list. But not a guarantee. Not a
Speaker 1: guarantee you there is no way you're gonna like this
Speaker 1: next game. I'm just putting out. By the way, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna mention it. The contentus line is also six and
Speaker 1: a half, as it is in the DraftKings contest. Sixty
Speaker 1: percent of people of our experts are picking the Charges,
Speaker 1: so not overwhelming. Not that that is the be all
Speaker 1: end all at all. I mean, we're gonna pick what
Speaker 1: we want to pick, but that does favor your side.
Speaker 2: You're not gonna like this, Matt.
Speaker 1: I'm going to warn you right out, especially since I
Speaker 1: also like this team last week and then we got
Speaker 1: off it because it was Taraball. It's the Cowboys plus
Speaker 1: four and a half in CEA. Let me explain my reasoning.
Speaker 1: The Seahawks usually play close games. I mean, whether it's
Speaker 1: this year, whether it's not. I mean they could have
Speaker 1: very easily lost that game in a game where you know,
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson threw a million touchdown passes.
Speaker 2: They let teams stay in the game. They don't.
Speaker 1: They're not great at covering the spread historically. I know
Speaker 1: that doesn't matter, but their defense is not great. The Falcons,
Speaker 1: which has a good offense, was able to score pretty.
Speaker 2: Much at will. The Patriots were able to score very.
Speaker 1: Well and again Newton through were almost four hundred yards.
Speaker 1: I mean, Julian Edelman, I think is at a career
Speaker 1: high in yardage. That doesn't usually happen when your defense
Speaker 1: is particularly strong. Now Dallas isn't perfectly healthy. I think
Speaker 1: Tyron Smith sounds like he's gonna play. I'm not one
Speaker 1: hundred percent sure there. They are banged up on their defense,
Speaker 1: but the Seattle line doesn't get that much pressure like
Speaker 1: they just don't. And I think you saw last week.
Speaker 1: As bad as the Atlanta's offense is, Dallas has the
Speaker 1: ability to put up points, especially towards the end of
Speaker 1: the game, even if they're behind, pretty much at will
Speaker 1: when things are going right. Considering they have Zeke, they're
Speaker 1: big three wide receivers, even Dalton Schultz.
Speaker 2: So four and a half to me. This game without fans.
Speaker 1: Again, with fans, different story to me because I think
Speaker 1: Seattle really loses that home field advantage with that. But
Speaker 1: without fans, this strikes me as a game that should
Speaker 1: be closer to a field goal. So I imagine you
Speaker 1: hate this game, but go ahead and give your thoughts.
Speaker 3: Gritting my teeth. You have the whole board, you could
Speaker 3: pick any game you want, yep, And you want to
Speaker 3: fade Russ right now?
Speaker 2: I mean, what is he?
Speaker 3: What is he now? Seventy five percent completion percentage.
Speaker 2: Russ is amazing Rus.
Speaker 3: If you want to go into that team, you want
Speaker 3: to go up against that guy right now, with the
Speaker 3: way that they're throwing the football, with the way DK
Speaker 3: metcalf is playing against a team that got lit up
Speaker 3: by the Falcons last week.
Speaker 1: Okay, so maybe we should explain my pick because it's
Speaker 1: obviously not coming through. I'm not picking the Cowboys to win.
Speaker 3: I'm not going to lose by a field goal. But I
Speaker 3: think there's a good possibility that they just got the
Speaker 3: greatest luckiest break in the history of sports, and father
Speaker 3: time and everything else comes back your your pendulum swings
Speaker 3: the other way, and they got every lucky break you
Speaker 3: can imagine, including some team deciding dan Quinn again deciding
Speaker 3: to throw up all over himself.
Speaker 1: You don't have to recover, try to recover onside kicks, man,
Speaker 1: I don't know why it's I mean.
Speaker 3: I don't know why. I mean, you can't touch it
Speaker 3: till ten yards right there. When we're taught in Pop Warner,
Speaker 3: you can't touch that ball if you're the receiving team.
Speaker 3: So I mean, I don't know how or why you'd
Speaker 3: want to go near this team. It's a I mean,
Speaker 3: I credit the buy low factor with this, because this
Speaker 3: is buying low on the Cowboys. It's just my gosh,
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson.
Speaker 1: All Right, the over under right now is fifty six,
Speaker 1: so that's an implied total for the Seahawks of what thirty.
Speaker 3: I'm not debating. I'm not debating the point that points
Speaker 3: are going to be scored, if.
Speaker 2: That's what I'm saying.
Speaker 1: I'm doing, Russell. I'm not fading Russell Wilson. I know
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson is going to put up points. I'm more
Speaker 1: buying the Cowboys' ability to put up a ton of
Speaker 1: points to hang with this offense.
Speaker 2: But it's fine. This is a team that we that
Speaker 2: you and I do together.
Speaker 1: That's why we throw them out so we can move
Speaker 1: that one to the side, just like we did with
Speaker 1: the Giants against the Bears last week.
Speaker 2: All Right, my friend, go ahead, start up with your
Speaker 2: next pick. Give it to me.
Speaker 3: All right, I'm going back to the old Oh I'm
Speaker 3: two and l fad in this team. I'm fading again.
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh Steelers, according to Pro Football Focus, of a top
Speaker 3: five defense right now, Yep, they are crushing people they
Speaker 3: are young, they are talented, and they blitz as much
Speaker 3: as anybody in football. This offensive line for the Houston
Speaker 3: Texans is god awful. They're not going to be able
Speaker 3: to protect Sean Watson. Now that Shaun can run around, okay,
Speaker 3: and you can move, you can pick up first downs
Speaker 3: with his legs, I get it. Incredible athlete. He has
Speaker 3: no one to pass to. This dude's got no help whatsoever.
Speaker 3: Big Ben's getting healthy. Him and Juju are starting to click.
Speaker 3: Lay the four Pittsburgh minus.
Speaker 1: Four, it's actually three and a half a month, love
Speaker 1: but even more unless I missed it.
Speaker 2: Let me check what is I think that was four?
Speaker 1: No, I don't know four circus, so check what I
Speaker 1: messaged you, because I'll tell I. Look up what it
Speaker 1: is in betting pros for right now for our consensus
Speaker 1: lines the Steelers, which for whatever reason I can't find
Speaker 1: at the moment, give me a second Steelers against the Texans.
Speaker 3: Three and a half? Love it?
Speaker 1: Yeah it's three and a half. Okay, good, so you
Speaker 1: love it even more? Okay, The consensus line is four
Speaker 1: in Bettingborough, so we're getting a little bit of a
Speaker 1: deal there. Yeah, that is on my list. I'm going
Speaker 1: to write it in because it was on my list
Speaker 1: and it was the next one that I was going
Speaker 1: to talk about.
Speaker 2: So if you're good with it, I'm fine with it.
Speaker 1: That's minus Pittsburgh minus three and a half to the Texans.
Speaker 1: I mean, I feel for the Texans a little bit,
Speaker 1: just because they got so much crap what they did
Speaker 1: on the off season and they roll out with this.
Speaker 2: Schedule where they just have a horrific schedule.
Speaker 3: It's the hardest schedule I can remember for the first
Speaker 3: three games of anybody in the NFL that Like, I mean,
Speaker 3: and I've been watching football for a really long time,
Speaker 3: I can't remember a time when you have to play
Speaker 3: against the two best teams in football and then go
Speaker 3: on the road to one of the more difficult places
Speaker 3: in a team in Pittsburgh. Google loves playing in Hinz Field.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 3: Ouch. I mean, this is just this is It's not
Speaker 3: even Bill O'Brien's fault. I mean, you want to hammer
Speaker 3: the guy, fine, but this oen three is almost like
Speaker 3: an automatic.
Speaker 2: That's what I'm saying. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Look, my one fear of it is that I legitimately
Speaker 1: despise backing Tomlin in these situations. Where you think Tomlin
Speaker 1: has knocked me out of so many survivor pools and
Speaker 1: coaching career, right, Like, this is the type of game
Speaker 1: we're gonna be like, Oh, you just forgot to show
Speaker 1: up then in this game.
Speaker 2: But I do think Look, it.
Speaker 1: Was my fourth, my fourth game, so I'm I'm totally
Speaker 1: with you there, and I'm good to put that in
Speaker 1: the contest. To be clear, our experts because I didn't
Speaker 1: give that for Dallas, because maybe you'll be surprised, are
Speaker 1: experts for Pittsburgh sixty one percent favor Pittsburgh over Houston's
Speaker 1: are not crazy? But in Dallas Seattle it's fifty three
Speaker 1: forty seven in favor of Seattle. So I'm not I'm
Speaker 1: not crazy, and I'm going to take that one.
Speaker 2: We do.
Speaker 1: By the way, Matt and I are two of the
Speaker 1: experts who put in our picks for betting pros. I'm
Speaker 1: taking the Cowboys at four and a half and then
Speaker 1: on Sunday we're going to be yelling at each other.
Speaker 3: Oh no, but I don't mind it. I mean, it's
Speaker 3: just as as these five picks are so valuable, Like,
Speaker 3: I don't mind you picking in the game.
Speaker 2: Well, this is why I'm telling you, I hate this slate, Matt,
Speaker 2: But you.
Speaker 3: Can pick as many games as you want on that.
Speaker 3: So it's like if you if you go, you know,
Speaker 3: ten and one in the one game you get wrong
Speaker 3: happens to be this game. Well, I mean, that's kind
Speaker 3: of where we are. But so to me, it's got
Speaker 3: a lot to do with the fact that these five
Speaker 3: picks are so valuable that I just my gosh, going
Speaker 3: up against Russell Wilson just of the five. We have
Speaker 3: so many other games we could pick, and this is
Speaker 3: the game we're gonna pick.
Speaker 2: Uh, Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 1: I'm willing to go against Russell Wilson if I'm getting
Speaker 1: the four and a half points with the Cowboys, because
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna hang with them, so deal with it.
Speaker 2: But it's fine, we're gonna leave it out.
Speaker 1: You know what else We're gonna leave out the next
Speaker 1: one I like, which you are going to despise. I'm
Speaker 1: just putting this out there. I have more, which I
Speaker 1: know you would like, and so I could kind of
Speaker 1: pus your foot around this and be like, well, Mann
Speaker 1: will probably.
Speaker 3: Like, don't take the Giants.
Speaker 2: Oh oh you know, oh giants plus three and a half.
Speaker 3: And I wouldn't bet this game with your money.
Speaker 2: I mean you should. I will give you money, and
Speaker 2: I would.
Speaker 3: I would if you gave me one hundred dollars. I
Speaker 3: wouldn't bet that with your money. In the hell of
Speaker 3: all the games? Why would you ever pick this game?
Speaker 2: Name me.
Speaker 1: Two starting offensive players for the forty nine ers that
Speaker 1: will be playing in this game.
Speaker 3: I can't kill, right, kill, He'll probably play. He might play,
Speaker 3: but why would you Why would you play him? If
Speaker 3: you're the forty nine ers?
Speaker 2: Why correct? Why would you play him?
Speaker 3: Don't play?
Speaker 1: You're right, you shouldn't play him, and you're not going
Speaker 1: to play anybody else of any consequence. And you're not
Speaker 1: gonna play Bosa or Thomas.
Speaker 3: Well, you can't play Bosa, I mean, because that's what
Speaker 3: I'm saying.
Speaker 2: You're not going to play the guys who are out
Speaker 2: for the season. Okay, You're not going to.
Speaker 1: Play either of your starting running backs. You're not going
Speaker 1: to play your quarterback. You're going to just be throwing
Speaker 1: nothing out there.
Speaker 3: And there's no Saquon Barkley for well.
Speaker 1: I understand, but you know, we talked about this last
Speaker 1: week with Chicago. There was no Saquon Barkley in that
Speaker 1: game either, and they still covered because the Giants offense, that's.
Speaker 3: Because of the offense is garbage for for the Bears.
Speaker 3: That's good. I mean it's you can't you can't go
Speaker 3: one to the other here.
Speaker 1: Just oh no, I said when I was making this pick,
Speaker 1: and again I've already put this pick in. Actually, I'd
Speaker 1: like to see what it is right now. Hold on,
Speaker 1: I just I would like to see exactly what is.
Speaker 1: First of all, I want to see what the consensus
Speaker 1: line is. The consensus line is still three and a half,
Speaker 1: so that is where it is. I want to see
Speaker 1: have a curiosity. Okay, yeah, San Francisco sixty two to
Speaker 1: thirty eight percent. Not overwhelming, not like the Patriots, but
Speaker 1: that's fine. Look for me, this is also back to back.
Speaker 3: This is contrarian by contrarian, but by contrarian standards. I
Speaker 3: love this contrarian. This is the pupil that.
Speaker 1: You've got to stay out east. Now, to be fair,
Speaker 1: they did not go back west. I don't think. I
Speaker 1: think they stayed somewhere on the East coast because they
Speaker 1: played the Jets and now.
Speaker 2: They're playing the Giants.
Speaker 1: I don't think they did the travel but it's back
Speaker 1: to back games on the East Coast and the time
Speaker 1: that really doesn't work. They have no one Matt and
Speaker 1: even their defense putting aside. But all right, first of all,
Speaker 1: I'll love you. Make it clear we're not going to
Speaker 1: take the game, of course, because we've got to fight.
Speaker 1: So I'm just saying it relaxed. I'mbout trying to talk
Speaker 1: to you again. As I said, I like one game
Speaker 1: this week and it was your number one pick, and
Speaker 1: that's it. But I don't love this slate. But that
Speaker 1: would be one of my games if I were doing
Speaker 1: this by myself, because I really do think their cornerbacks
Speaker 1: are all injured. They've got, you know, decimated on their defense,
Speaker 1: decimated on their offense, and the Giants have enough frisky
Speaker 1: pieces that they can put up view points even without
Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley. So for me, if I'm getting more in
Speaker 1: the fieldal here, I'm taking I am betting it, all right,
Speaker 1: So everybody listening out there, you can make fun of
Speaker 1: me on Sunday betting this.
Speaker 2: Oh I'm betting it. Yeah, I'm betting it.
Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not going crazy with it, but I've
Speaker 1: made a bet on it. I'm willing to roll with that, so.
Speaker 3: I wring ballins to drop forty on you.
Speaker 2: It would if you know, it wouldn't be the worst
Speaker 2: bet I've ever made. I'll be out of it, all right,
Speaker 2: Go to your next one, Matt, What do you have?
Speaker 1: All right?
Speaker 3: So I've got two plays, and you can tell which
Speaker 3: one you want to talk about. I like in the
Speaker 3: both dogs Detroit plus five and a half are Chiefs
Speaker 3: plus three and a half? Which one do you want
Speaker 3: to talk about?
Speaker 1: I actually want to talk about both of them. Start
Speaker 1: what you're gonna do with two for one? Which is
Speaker 1: fine because I've already I'm already at the Giants getting
Speaker 1: points from the forty nine ers range of my pick.
Speaker 1: So let's talk about all them because I'm interested in
Speaker 1: the Lions back because you and I kind of we
Speaker 1: go back and forth a little bit. You know, we
Speaker 1: talked about it a little bit before, and we both
Speaker 1: sort of had this. This is very much the spot
Speaker 1: where classic the way you think about sports gambling, classic
Speaker 1: time where this is a game for the Lions. But
Speaker 1: the more I dug into it, I got nervous about it.
Speaker 3: So I'm way nervous about both these picks. And I
Speaker 3: was trying to find my fifth one because of my
Speaker 3: five pat Steelers, Titans Chargers, those are my four. The
Speaker 3: fifth one is when I was struggling. And so with
Speaker 3: the Lions, I think, I think car I think the
Speaker 3: Cardinals win, all right, Yeah, But my question is with
Speaker 3: backs against the wall, you have to win because or
Speaker 3: at least you have to play competitively because Matt Patricia
Speaker 3: already has folks saying he should be fired. Yep, And
Speaker 3: there's already already this call right now for you know,
Speaker 3: complete regime change and completely scrapping everything, pull everything down
Speaker 3: and start all over again. Because they tried it with Patricia.
Speaker 3: It didn't work. This expatriot way hasn't worked. Fire, the
Speaker 3: GM fired, the coach, redo everything. So my concern is
Speaker 3: they've had back to back double digit leads in Week
Speaker 3: one and Week two and they've blown them both. You know,
Speaker 3: at some point do they win that one game like
Speaker 3: the Celtics did in Game three against the Heat where
Speaker 3: they had they blew the lead but they still hung
Speaker 3: on to win. So I wonder, like, do the Lions
Speaker 3: get the lead and then blow it again and the
Speaker 3: Cardinals come back and then win by four? Yeah? And
Speaker 3: you're catching five and a half, and so I'm I'm
Speaker 3: with you on being more and more afraid. I just
Speaker 3: think I think it's gonna be a really a public play,
Speaker 3: and I think it could be like seven by time kickoff.
Speaker 3: So I might bet this game with the Lions for
Speaker 3: our sake at five and a half. It's a number.
Speaker 3: Obviously I don't like correct.
Speaker 1: By the way, can we also talk about the fact
Speaker 1: that you were like, you're gonna learn something about me, Dan,
Speaker 1: There are certain paralisms.
Speaker 2: I don't go five and a half and.
Speaker 3: I don't minus five and a half.
Speaker 2: I don't, but oh you don't take well take.
Speaker 3: Points, Oh take five and a half points. It's minus
Speaker 3: five and a half.
Speaker 2: I don't lay like we're taking the Patriots with your
Speaker 2: best bet.
Speaker 3: Well that's different though, because again this my team is
Speaker 3: my pay as I told you, as I told you
Speaker 3: when I tweeted you this or to text you this
Speaker 3: to me, when it comes to my team and the Patriots,
Speaker 3: I don't care what that line was, got it. I'm
Speaker 3: taking the Patriots six, seven, nine, whatever. The Patriots are
Speaker 3: winning that game big in my mind.
Speaker 2: Kind of like what I do with the Jets, except
Speaker 2: the opposite way.
Speaker 3: Just take there anyway, taking five and a half, I
Speaker 3: know problem taking five and a half. It's live five
Speaker 3: and a half.
Speaker 2: My fault. I misunderstood the prophism.
Speaker 3: So the plus five with the Lions is intriguing. It's
Speaker 3: six right now, and it's climbing, so like the people
Speaker 3: are taking the number and they're pushing it up. So
Speaker 3: the Lions are definitely a live dog here in this game,
Speaker 3: but I feel like it might be a little bit
Speaker 3: too public. And then the contrarian of contrarian plays is
Speaker 3: Monday Night.
Speaker 1: Okay, I do want to talk about that one actually,
Speaker 1: because I'm more intrigued by that one. And it's funny
Speaker 1: that you brought that up, because I was like, man,
Speaker 1: I don't even know if this one's gonna be worth
Speaker 1: bringing up. I'd rather bring up the Giants with the
Speaker 1: three and a half than saying the Chiefs taking the Ravens,
Speaker 1: which mattters just like the Ravens the Ravens, which you
Speaker 1: are correct. Here's my problem with this. First of all,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give it on betting pros it is still
Speaker 1: five and a half. With the Cardinals laying five and
Speaker 1: a half, there is a six out there right now,
Speaker 1: and it is that Fox bet, which is a little
Speaker 1: off the expert consensus for our picks seventy six percent
Speaker 1: is taking Arizona, and I am actually on that side.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 2: I was originally thinking, here's what I think.
Speaker 1: I just think at this point that Vegas and sportsbooks,
Speaker 1: I don't think they're properly valuing the Cardinals yet. I
Speaker 1: don't think they've caught up to what the Cardinals actually are.
Speaker 1: And kudos to you, Matt, because you liked this team.
Speaker 1: We talked about it preseason. I did not. I did
Speaker 1: not think that this team was gonna be something that
Speaker 1: was going to make any noise.
Speaker 2: But they look really really good.
Speaker 1: Their defense looks a little better than expected, and I
Speaker 1: think they're better than bookmakers are giving them credit for it.
Speaker 2: And I think that's going to become apparent pretty soon.
Speaker 3: Well here's here, here's a little yeah, a little add on.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I haven't give this out in the Daily Juicy yet,
Speaker 3: but I'm gonna do it tonight. Go bet the Cardinals
Speaker 3: to win the NFC at plus twelve hundred. Yeah, if
Speaker 3: you look at the NFC, I'm not saying winning the
Speaker 3: Super Bowl now because you're dealing with the other side
Speaker 3: with the Raves and the Chiefs, but just to win
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl. If you look at the teams in
Speaker 3: the NFC and how the Cardinals match up with them,
Speaker 3: at plus twelve hundred, it's incredible odds, incredible value on
Speaker 3: the Cardinals there. So sorry to interject, but that's a
Speaker 3: bet I think people should make right now at plus
Speaker 3: twelve hundred for the Cardinals to win the NFC.
Speaker 2: That's a great call.
Speaker 1: Actually, yeah, I definitely people if the odds are twelve
Speaker 1: hundred ad and looked at it, they should do that. Conversely,
Speaker 1: as I was saying, the Lions just suck, like that's
Speaker 1: the bottom line. Their defense is young and injured. I
Speaker 1: know they're gonna Getkenny GALLIAI back, I don't care. This
Speaker 1: is just not the defense. I don't think they're gonna
Speaker 1: be able. I think it's going to be a monstrous
Speaker 1: day for every significant piece of the Arizona off Keny
Speaker 1: d we talked about it. We just had a daily
Speaker 1: fantasy sports show that we do on Thursdays. Kenyan Drake
Speaker 1: was a guy that we all loved. Kyler Murray was
Speaker 1: a guy that we all loved. If you're willing to
Speaker 1: spend up on quarterback on a wide receiver, do it
Speaker 1: with DeAndre Hopkins. This is just the game where I
Speaker 1: think that in the end, this is going to be
Speaker 1: kind of like the Oh the Cardinals are a scary team.
Speaker 2: So I'm staying away from the lines.
Speaker 1: But go to the Chiefs plus three and a half
Speaker 1: because I think this is going to wind up being
Speaker 1: somehow in the DK contest.
Speaker 2: But go ahead.
Speaker 3: So here's Chiefs plus three and a half. And I
Speaker 3: believe the hook here is a big deal to me. Yep,
Speaker 3: Kansas City doesn't lose these games as underdogs. They have
Speaker 3: not been a dog in a long time. I forget
Speaker 3: the actual stat, but it's been like two years since
Speaker 3: they've been an underdog. You have Patrick Mahomes playing in
Speaker 3: the AFC Super Bowl, because that's what this is. It's
Speaker 3: the regular season super Bowl. Everyone all eyes. I know
Speaker 3: that you've got Lamar Jackson and I like the running
Speaker 3: game a lot, but the problem is that the Ravens
Speaker 3: get behind. They got a tough time making games up.
Speaker 3: They have a tough time coming back from from deficits.
Speaker 3: And what do the Chiefs do. That's all they do
Speaker 3: is come back from deficits matter what you put them
Speaker 3: in ten twenty, it doesn't matter. This team just comes back.
Speaker 3: The best team in football are the Chiefs. I'm catching points.
Speaker 3: I don't care where the game's being played. Plus three
Speaker 3: and a half. Give me the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is going in the contest match, okay, because
Speaker 1: it was on my list, and I was like, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna save this one for a little bit down because
Speaker 1: I think it's crazy. And I know you love the
Speaker 1: Ravens and you have been on you have been I
Speaker 1: mean you have been completely like oh no, no, no, no,
Speaker 1: this is it. I don't care what they're giving. That's
Speaker 1: seven and a half. I've got no problems taking that whatsoever.
Speaker 1: You've been uber confidence. So I was like, well, you're
Speaker 1: not gonna want it the Chiefs. But I agree with you.
Speaker 2: I'm not sure necessarily that they're the best team.
Speaker 1: I don't know whether or not they're better than the Ravens,
Speaker 1: but I do know if I'm getting more than a
Speaker 1: field goal, I'm good with it.
Speaker 2: So for me right now, you correct me if I'm wrong.
Speaker 2: We're pretty much in agreement right now.
Speaker 1: At the Pats laying five and a half against the Raiders,
Speaker 1: the Titans laying two and a half to Minnesota. Yep,
Speaker 1: the Steelers laying three and a half to the Text,
Speaker 1: the Chiefs getting three and a half to the Ravens.
Speaker 1: The only other, right, we're good on this, We're good,
Speaker 1: all right. For the other one that's under consideration is
Speaker 1: the Chargers laying six and alfter the Panthers. Now that
Speaker 1: is under consideration. Let's talk through some of these other
Speaker 1: games and let's just see whether or not we think
Speaker 1: there's anything else that we could be missing. How do
Speaker 1: you feel about the Bears getting three and a half
Speaker 1: in Atlanta?
Speaker 3: I mean, this is the problem with the Bears, because
Speaker 3: they win a game and everyone's going to be like,
Speaker 3: here we go and it's Tribbitsky. Oh he's playing great.
Speaker 3: Look out, give me a break. It's Tribitsky. Okay, it's
Speaker 3: the first start. I don't care it's one. It doesn't
Speaker 3: make a difference to me. In my mind. I am
Speaker 3: not looking at this as like an opportunity where we're saying, yes,
Speaker 3: this is smart. I'm going you know, I'm gonna fade
Speaker 3: as much as I can. I'm gonna fade the Bears.
Speaker 3: I can't go near that game.
Speaker 1: All right, So for me, this would be one where
Speaker 1: I knew you wouldn't because I'm not a lunatic, but
Speaker 1: it would be one where if I'm forced to choose
Speaker 1: a side, it would be Chicago in this one. The
Speaker 1: consensus line, by the way, is down to three. There's
Speaker 1: only one three and a half that I see out there.
Speaker 1: So getting the hook in the DK contest is something
Speaker 1: that makes a little bit of a difference. I don't
Speaker 1: really trust uh Trubisky, and there's no way that I
Speaker 1: would really be like, if I can find any way
Speaker 1: to avoid doing this, that I would want to do it.
Speaker 1: But Atlanta is just so bad and they may be
Speaker 1: down Julio Jones by the right, But I agree with you.
Speaker 1: I just wanted to see because if you were on
Speaker 1: the fence about it, I would be willing to talk
Speaker 1: this one through.
Speaker 3: Well, the only our game that I'm on the fence
Speaker 3: on is the Rams at the Bills.
Speaker 1: How do you feel about that one, because that is
Speaker 1: the what is the that is the Rams getting one
Speaker 1: and a half in Buffalo.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So, by the way, I.
Speaker 1: Do want to point out, just on that one, seventy
Speaker 1: seven percent of our experts are on Atlanta in that game.
Speaker 1: If I'm if I'm forced to choose a side, I'm
Speaker 1: taking Chicago at the three and a half. It's three
Speaker 1: again on our consensus. But go ahead, Mat, I'm sorry.
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I It's just like last week. Right, So
Speaker 3: last week the Eagles were laying one one and a
Speaker 3: half and it closed. I guess it opened with the
Speaker 3: Rams getting I guess the Rams were open as favorites
Speaker 3: and it flipped and the Eagles one up being favorites. Right,
Speaker 3: but the Rams are this is the tel game for
Speaker 3: me with LA. So if they can go back to
Speaker 3: the East Coast on back to back weeks and beat
Speaker 3: the Buffalo Bills, who, by the way, have played nobody. Okay,
Speaker 3: Miami and New York are not teams.
Speaker 1: I mean I also, by the way, if you are
Speaker 1: new to this podcast, Matt despises the Buffalo Bills and
Speaker 1: talks them down all the time.
Speaker 2: Yes, go ahead.
Speaker 3: And I actually had somebody on that because I ripped
Speaker 3: them on the Daily Juice last night and people somebody
Speaker 3: email me said, what's your problem with Judge Allen? And
Speaker 3: so they got a big problem with Josh Allen can
Speaker 3: get the balls out of a barn. But see So
Speaker 3: my thing is this, So the Rams have played played
Speaker 3: a higher level of competition, and it goes back to
Speaker 3: my whole theory about winning on the road with the
Speaker 3: fact that you can have the communication with McVeigh and
Speaker 3: Jared Goff, which clearly worked against the Eagles. So if
Speaker 3: my theory is right, the golf's gonna play much better
Speaker 3: this year because no fans on the road. And I
Speaker 3: don't think this team in Buffalo is all that good.
Speaker 3: They're good, okay, but the Rams may be the best
Speaker 3: team in the NFC West. Okay, we got to see
Speaker 3: what happens with Seattle Ford. Nine ers are out of
Speaker 3: the conversation and the Cardinals are too young to really
Speaker 3: know exactly what they are only two games end of
Speaker 3: the season. But to me, this is a show me game.
Speaker 3: The Rams go there and win that game outright, the
Speaker 3: Rams are gonna be in the conversation for everything. I
Speaker 3: means winning it all, I mean everything. So I am
Speaker 3: I'm fifty to fifty on this is taking the one
Speaker 3: and a half points and going with the Rams.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, the consensus now is two and a
Speaker 1: half for the lines and the Rams are getting fifty
Speaker 1: two percent of our bets, so it's pretty much split
Speaker 1: down the middle. Is not a game I'm gonna take.
Speaker 1: I agree, though, with everything that you're saying. I do
Speaker 1: think I like the Rams before the season started. I
Speaker 1: thought they were underrated. I think your point about no
Speaker 1: fans and McVeigh being able to talk to Goff your
Speaker 1: theory is great. I think that really does make a difference.
Speaker 1: I think if you're going to Buffalo and you're doing
Speaker 1: it at a time where there are no fans and
Speaker 1: it is not freezing, that's the time that you can
Speaker 1: play in Buffalo.
Speaker 2: Yeah, once it gets late. I went to school there.
Speaker 1: Once it gets late, it's insane, and the fans nuts
Speaker 1: are absolutely nuts. It's a tough place to play. But
Speaker 1: all that said, I am not quite as convinced that
Speaker 1: the Bills are as fake as you will forever think
Speaker 1: that they are. I get the Josh Allen, you know,
Speaker 1: misses plenty of throws, but I think I'm not willing
Speaker 1: to say I even like either side on this game.
Speaker 3: For either want to win.
Speaker 2: I feel like it's awesome.
Speaker 1: So I think we're gonna wind up going with the
Speaker 1: Chargers laying six and a half to the Panthers because
Speaker 1: I do like it better than everything else. Let's very
Speaker 1: quickly just touch on the remaining games, yep, and just
Speaker 1: make sure we don't like it. Bengals getting five and
Speaker 1: a half from the Eagles.
Speaker 3: I mean, the Eagles have to win. But how in
Speaker 3: the heck can you back Carson Wentz? Right now?
Speaker 2: That's the problem.
Speaker 3: I mean, how could you back him?
Speaker 2: I this has everything.
Speaker 1: Even if the Eagles come out and again they just
Speaker 1: lost Jalen Rager again, even if they come out and
Speaker 1: they're on fire and they're good, the Bengals are off
Speaker 1: essentially a mini bi because they played on Thursday. Burrow
Speaker 1: is going to be a backdoor cover machine this year.
Speaker 1: That's what, right, That's what you could just see. He
Speaker 1: just has no fear. He's just gonna run around, throw
Speaker 1: the ball. I could see the Eagles winning this game,
Speaker 1: and this is sort of the spot where you could
Speaker 1: buy them. But I can't back Carson Wentz. I can't
Speaker 1: put one of our five coveted picks in for Carson Wentz.
Speaker 2: I agree you there.
Speaker 1: Washington getting seven and a half from the Browns.
Speaker 3: No, just no, on every level. No, No, I'm not
Speaker 3: going to trust the Browns. They're at home here. I'll
Speaker 3: bet the Browns here and I'll take the Browns. Yeah,
Speaker 3: but not in this contest. Not knowing that again, back
Speaker 3: door seven and a half is wide open for the
Speaker 3: Washington football team.
Speaker 1: Yeah no, I completely agree. I would take the Browns,
Speaker 1: like if I'm forced to choose a side, but not
Speaker 1: in the contest. The Jets plus ten and a half
Speaker 1: in Indye.
Speaker 3: Look, I have a long standing I'm not laying double
Speaker 3: digits in this contest. It's just not worth it. In
Speaker 3: my mind, ten and a half is too many points.
Speaker 3: I don't care who it is. It's the NFL. It's
Speaker 3: either a dog or a pass, and I'm not taking
Speaker 3: that team that's the dog.
Speaker 1: And that spread is rising after the Jets announced we
Speaker 1: will be without any actual players this weekend. I mean
Speaker 1: they legitimately announced their whole offense, their offensive line, everything,
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter.
Speaker 2: It's too many points.
Speaker 1: If I'm forced to choose side, I'm taking the Cults
Speaker 1: because the Jets are truly abysmo. But I agree with you,
Speaker 1: it's not a line that I want to go near
Speaker 1: in this sort of contest.
Speaker 2: Bucks playing six and a half in Denver, Boy, it's.
Speaker 3: A cold weather city. With a real hot, warm weather team.
Speaker 2: And is it cold in Denver right now?
Speaker 3: Yeah? And Denver not cold cold, but it's colder than Tampa.
Speaker 2: Sure.
Speaker 3: And Tom Brady's record in Tampa in Denver is horrific,
Speaker 3: and I mean, like capital h horrific. So you know,
Speaker 3: Jeff Driscolls the quarterback though it doesn't matter, I don't care.
Speaker 2: You know Courland Sutton's out right, yep, I did.
Speaker 3: I don't care. I'm not I'm not taking Tom Brady
Speaker 3: on the road in that in that building.
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, either way, I don't want that game whatsoever.
Speaker 1: I just like to play Devil's advocation. Yeah, I agree.
Speaker 1: I don't like the way the Bucks offense look right now.
Speaker 2: I just don't. It just seems out of sort.
Speaker 1: And again I talked about this on the Fantasy on
Speaker 1: one of our Fantasy podcasts.
Speaker 2: Jeff Driscoll's going to throw that ball. He don't care.
Speaker 2: He definitely is at the point and be like, I'll
Speaker 2: throw a couple.
Speaker 3: Home dogs in the NFL home dogs in the NFL.
Speaker 3: Not not with Brady's record in Denver nowhere.
Speaker 1: And early on we talked about this with the Titans,
Speaker 1: even though we were very clearly on the right side
Speaker 1: of that game that Denver just has a way of
Speaker 1: either winning or covering, at least early in the season
Speaker 1: when they're home. So definitely not a place that I
Speaker 1: want to go to. And I mentioned it at the
Speaker 1: start Packers getting three and a half in New Orleans.
Speaker 1: I don't want to go near it.
Speaker 3: I into my head, I'm taking the Saints because they're
Speaker 3: at home, and I think people are a little bit
Speaker 3: too high on the Packers right now.
Speaker 1: And I think Devanta Adam is going to be out here,
Speaker 1: by the way, so I do think that that does
Speaker 1: make a difference.
Speaker 2: I think he is.
Speaker 1: There's no way to know that yet, but he misspracticed.
Speaker 1: I guess ow report that that it doesn't look real
Speaker 1: good for his availability. So you know, if that makes
Speaker 1: a difference to you find I still though, don't Michael
Speaker 1: Thomas is also going to be out.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not it overfield goal. It's just it's.
Speaker 3: I don't want to stay away game from me on
Speaker 3: either side. But I mean, if I had to play it,
Speaker 3: I'll take the Saints.
Speaker 2: Correct.
Speaker 1: That's where I'm okay, all right, So this was not
Speaker 1: that hard. You feel a lot better about this than
Speaker 1: I do. I feel good about two of the picks
Speaker 1: and the rest of them are like, okay, I lean
Speaker 1: that way, but I do you know.
Speaker 2: What I really like, Matt.
Speaker 1: I love that I have the Chiefs getting more than
Speaker 1: a field goal. That's what I'm going to watch that game,
Speaker 1: because there's never going to be a point.
Speaker 2: We're gonna be like, well this this BET's dead, like million,
Speaker 2: right not with not with the Chiefs.
Speaker 3: It could be twenty. They could be down twenty at
Speaker 3: halftime and you could be like, yep, we're so we're good,
Speaker 3: We're so.
Speaker 2: Alive, all right.
Speaker 1: So our five official picks, and again follow us on Twitter,
Speaker 1: Dan Harris eighty at sports Talk Matt and go to
Speaker 1: Matt's live stream Sunday mornings at eleven am Eastern YouTube
Speaker 1: dot com slash Betting Pros. Subscribe, click the notification button.
Speaker 1: Matt will be talking about it and give player props.
Speaker 1: Again it's Thursday. We don't have all the player props,
Speaker 1: so we're not able to get them here, but we
Speaker 1: will give them. Matt will give them. I'll give him
Speaker 1: some of mine. But for our five picks as of
Speaker 1: right now, again we may change them. Are the Patriots
Speaker 1: laying five and a half to the Raiders.
Speaker 2: We both love that game. The Titans laying two and
Speaker 2: a half to the Vikings.
Speaker 1: We like that game. The Steelers laying three and a
Speaker 1: half to the Texans. I think Matt loves it. I
Speaker 1: like it, Chiefs laying three and a half getting three
Speaker 1: and a half pardon me from the Ravens.
Speaker 2: We both have talked ourselves very much into that game.
Speaker 2: And the Chargers laying six.
Speaker 1: And a half to the Panthers. Matt likes that game.
Speaker 1: I am very much of I don't really like any
Speaker 1: other game in this slate. I lean that way, so
Speaker 1: I'm good to go with it.
Speaker 2: All right. You feel good about.
Speaker 3: That, Matt? I do. I like those five plays?
Speaker 2: I do, all right?
Speaker 3: Man?
Speaker 2: All right, So this is great.
Speaker 1: I love doing this podcast because it's just fun and
Speaker 1: Matt and I other than we send each other maybe
Speaker 1: a couple of minor leans early on to say, hey,
Speaker 1: I kind of like this game. We use this podcast
Speaker 1: to discuss it. So that's all right. Again, Go to
Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com because not all the odds. I tried
Speaker 1: to give the updated odds when I could. That shows
Speaker 1: you what the consensus lines are, and they're gonna move
Speaker 1: the Draftking lines lock Wednesday. So they, as Matt had
Speaker 1: said when we talked about earlier, they try to predict
Speaker 1: what it's going before the line is actually there. So
Speaker 1: usually when they said it it's not there, they predict
Speaker 1: where it's gonna go. So sometimes you're gonna get much
Speaker 1: better value. Sometimes it get worse value than what we
Speaker 1: talk about here. And again you can see which way
Speaker 1: the experts are going when they're picking the game, and
Speaker 1: I think you can see the way Matt and I
Speaker 1: have picked it. If you go on betting pros dot
Speaker 1: com check it out. Also download the Betting Pros app.
Speaker 2: It is awesome.
Speaker 1: Actually most times I just make my picks from there
Speaker 1: because I can do it, but it tracks your bets.
Speaker 1: They just updated it a couple of weeks ago. It's
Speaker 1: really awesome. Again, just download it from the app store.
Speaker 1: It's great, all right. That is it for our Week
Speaker 1: three show was a good one. I enjoyed it. Remember
Speaker 1: check out the livestream on Sunday morning, YouTube dot com,
Speaker 1: slash Betting Pros at eleven. Matt will give you more information.
Speaker 1: But until then or until next week, rest easy and
Speaker 1: good luck with all your bets.
Speaker 3: Yeah,