WEBVTT - Week 3 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 57) 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:16.640 Hey, everybody, welcome back to another episode of the Betting 0:00:16.640 --> 0:00:19.720 Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. With me, 0:00:19.880 --> 0:00:22.639 of course, is Matt Pearl. You can find us on 0:00:22.680 --> 0:00:25.160 Twitter at Dan Harris Ady and at Sports Talk Matt. 0:00:25.200 --> 0:00:25.960 Matt. What's going on? 0:00:26.200 --> 0:00:28.840 I am ready to go here. I feel a five 0:00:28.840 --> 0:00:31.360 and oh coming in the DraftKings. I like the slate. 0:00:31.480 --> 0:00:33.040 I'm hot and ready to go today. 0:00:33.440 --> 0:00:36.880 All right, you are hot, that is true. I hate 0:00:36.880 --> 0:00:39.360 this slate. So this is gonna be very interesting as 0:00:39.400 --> 0:00:42.760 we talked through it. What did you do in the circle? 0:00:42.840 --> 0:00:44.560 By the way, how did you go in the circa. 0:00:44.360 --> 0:00:47.680 Breaking two, three and two, five and five in both contests? 0:00:47.760 --> 0:00:50.479 All right, so yeah, let's recap the where we are 0:00:50.520 --> 0:00:53.000 in the DK contest before we get in. We are 0:00:53.040 --> 0:00:54.680 five and five. We were two and three last week. 0:00:54.680 --> 0:00:56.200 We had the Eagles getting one and a half from 0:00:56.240 --> 0:00:58.400 the Rams. It was a terrible loss. We had the 0:00:58.480 --> 0:01:00.480 Vikings getting three and a half from the That was 0:01:00.600 --> 0:01:02.800 even worse laws And to be clear, that was the 0:01:02.800 --> 0:01:04.039 one that I really liked. 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:04.679 The cut. 0:01:04.720 --> 0:01:06.920 We did hit on the cards, giving six and a 0:01:06.959 --> 0:01:10.240 half to Washington. We took two other games which were 0:01:10.280 --> 0:01:12.200 the Raiders getting five and a half from the Saints 0:01:12.280 --> 0:01:14.840 and the Cowboys laying four and a half to the Falcons. 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:17.160 I told you on the show to make sure to 0:01:17.160 --> 0:01:19.280 follow us on Twitter again at Dan Harris Hadi at 0:01:19.280 --> 0:01:22.280 Sports Talk, Matt, because we you know, it's early in 0:01:22.319 --> 0:01:23.240 the week we want to talk about. 0:01:23.280 --> 0:01:23.959 That was on Wednesday night. 0:01:24.000 --> 0:01:25.039 By the way, We're going to be doing this on 0:01:25.080 --> 0:01:27.319 Thursday night from now and going forward, just so we 0:01:27.360 --> 0:01:29.480 can make sure we have as much information as possible. 0:01:29.640 --> 0:01:31.880 I said to follow us because we might change. We 0:01:31.920 --> 0:01:32.520 did change. 0:01:32.680 --> 0:01:34.800 We moved off those two bets, so we moved off 0:01:34.800 --> 0:01:36.959 to bets that we would have gone one and one 0:01:37.000 --> 0:01:39.760 on you know, not a huge deal, Matt. I mean, 0:01:39.760 --> 0:01:41.640 I think we both just sort of felt like, especially 0:01:41.640 --> 0:01:43.560 where you weren't in Vegas, it was just such a 0:01:44.120 --> 0:01:47.559 so much money. So all the public was just running 0:01:47.600 --> 0:01:50.160 in of course to back the Raiders in that first game. 0:01:50.160 --> 0:01:52.120 Which what was so funny about that though, is that 0:01:52.200 --> 0:01:54.280 and this is where I need to be careful. Okay, 0:01:54.680 --> 0:01:58.720 that is true except for everywhere outside Nevada. Correct, And 0:01:58.760 --> 0:02:01.840 I didn't know that because I'm in my literally my 0:02:01.920 --> 0:02:04.200 Vegas bubble right right. So in the Vegas Bubble. It 0:02:04.280 --> 0:02:07.120 was like, oh my god, the line crashed in Vegas. 0:02:07.280 --> 0:02:10.160 It closed at three and a half. I couldn't believe it, 0:02:10.480 --> 0:02:13.640 and I was nervous. That freaked me out by that. 0:02:13.800 --> 0:02:16.600 But everywhere else it was eighty percent of the money 0:02:16.600 --> 0:02:18.400 on the Saints. So that was my bad. 0:02:18.720 --> 0:02:20.800 Yeah, no, no, no, I mean it doesn't matter. And 0:02:20.880 --> 0:02:23.160 I liked the Cowboys. But what's funny is that Matt 0:02:23.160 --> 0:02:24.919 and I talked, because Matt and I talked anyway, just 0:02:24.960 --> 0:02:27.840 about this stuff, and he actually he's in the circle 0:02:27.919 --> 0:02:30.440 with a partner and he was taking the other side 0:02:30.440 --> 0:02:33.320 of that game. He had the falcons, which you know, 0:02:33.560 --> 0:02:35.880 turned out to be correct. So I was like, I 0:02:35.919 --> 0:02:38.160 don't I don't feel that strong about it. 0:02:38.440 --> 0:02:40.760 Let's think more about it. And so we moved off that. 0:02:41.200 --> 0:02:43.560 We went to the Panthers getting nine and a half 0:02:43.880 --> 0:02:46.760 against the Bucks for one of them, which was close. 0:02:46.919 --> 0:02:48.680 I don't know, man, I mean, it very easily could 0:02:48.720 --> 0:02:51.280 have covered, but they didn't. So that's where that was. 0:02:51.840 --> 0:02:54.120 But we also moved What was the other game that 0:02:54.120 --> 0:02:56.200 we moved to that we hit on, Matt am I 0:02:56.280 --> 0:02:56.919 drawing a blank. 0:02:57.000 --> 0:03:00.760 Now, the game we hit on was I'm blinking on it. 0:03:00.960 --> 0:03:03.560 Oh, the Ravens the rankings. Yes, the Ravens laying seven 0:03:03.600 --> 0:03:05.600 a half. By the way, Matt is always just a Ravens. 0:03:05.600 --> 0:03:08.359 And Matt said, you said you talked to a bookmaker 0:03:08.720 --> 0:03:10.480 or somebody who said they would bet that all the 0:03:10.480 --> 0:03:11.120 way up to ten. 0:03:11.240 --> 0:03:11.600 Correct. 0:03:11.800 --> 0:03:12.040 Yep. 0:03:12.120 --> 0:03:14.280 Yeah, So we were like, all right, that's that's that 0:03:14.400 --> 0:03:16.440 sounds good to me. And again laying on the Ravens 0:03:16.480 --> 0:03:19.200 here early, because the Ravens play to rip your heart out. 0:03:19.200 --> 0:03:22.400 They don't just play to you know, barely cover the spread, 0:03:22.440 --> 0:03:24.480 barely win. They played to rip your heart out. So again, 0:03:24.880 --> 0:03:27.000 really a distinction, that difference. We went too and three. 0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:30.000 We're five and five overall, so that's not good. But 0:03:30.200 --> 0:03:32.200 the good news, at least in the DraftKings contest is 0:03:32.280 --> 0:03:35.200 it was a bad week for everyone. Twenty four percent 0:03:35.840 --> 0:03:38.720 of participants took the Chiefs laying eight and a half. Wow, 0:03:39.440 --> 0:03:43.120 twenty one percent were on the vikings with us forty percent. 0:03:43.520 --> 0:03:44.280 We're on the Eagles. 0:03:44.320 --> 0:03:46.160 As Matt and I talked about, you know, I messaged 0:03:46.200 --> 0:03:48.400 Matt on the live stream that Matt does. 0:03:48.240 --> 0:03:50.320 Which you should be tuning into YouTube. 0:03:50.000 --> 0:03:53.600 Dot com slash betting pros every Sunday morning Eastern eleven 0:03:53.600 --> 0:03:56.920 am to noon, so that's eight to nine. Where Matt is, 0:03:57.200 --> 0:03:59.200 he goes through the slate and I'm going to be 0:03:59.240 --> 0:04:01.640 popping in and I'll I'll write them questions anything like that. 0:04:01.840 --> 0:04:04.320 Forty percent we're on the Eagles and twenty one percent 0:04:04.360 --> 0:04:06.320 we're on the Jets against the Niners. You should not 0:04:06.320 --> 0:04:09.520 be on the Jets against anyone ever, So everybody took 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:11.880 a back. Here we sit two hundred and forty third 0:04:12.320 --> 0:04:14.200 out of six hundred and ninety one, so that is 0:04:14.240 --> 0:04:18.680 not terrible. Two undefeated teams are still in the contest, 0:04:18.839 --> 0:04:21.040 but neither one of them made a pick last week. Remember, 0:04:21.200 --> 0:04:23.640 you can take two weeks off whatever reason. Maybe they 0:04:23.640 --> 0:04:25.400 were like, man, I was really hot that first. 0:04:25.120 --> 0:04:28.279 Week, until you're doing week two. To take it very weird, 0:04:28.760 --> 0:04:30.720 very weird to me, Like I'm only you got like 0:04:30.720 --> 0:04:33.360 a family emergency or something like, right, so weird weak 0:04:33.400 --> 0:04:35.799 to take off, especially after a five and oh start. 0:04:35.800 --> 0:04:38.560 Why not keep rolling? You're clearly seeing the board clearly, 0:04:38.640 --> 0:04:39.680 so let's go there. Deal. 0:04:39.760 --> 0:04:42.840 There are two undefeated teams, but they're both five and out. 0:04:42.880 --> 0:04:45.800 They're not ten and out. Four teams have picked nine 0:04:45.800 --> 0:04:48.760 out of ten games correctly, that's it. Everybody else is 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:51.360 eight and eight out of ten or worse. So we're 0:04:51.400 --> 0:04:53.440 still right in the mix there. But here's what we're 0:04:53.480 --> 0:04:55.400 gonna do for the show today. Usually what I do 0:04:55.480 --> 0:04:57.240 is I say, all right, man, let's go through the game. 0:04:57.279 --> 0:04:58.640 Do you give me your picks? You like, no, No, 0:04:58.680 --> 0:05:00.240 We're done with that. We're now going to go back 0:05:00.279 --> 0:05:01.920 and forth, back and forth a little bit. Now Matt 0:05:01.960 --> 0:05:04.080 loves some games this week. I'm like, all right, I 0:05:04.200 --> 0:05:07.520 kind of have a lean on you know, four maybe five, 0:05:07.560 --> 0:05:10.160 but I'm not. I'm I'm really like one game, which 0:05:10.200 --> 0:05:11.240 I think we're both gonna be on. 0:05:11.440 --> 0:05:12.240 But that's really it. 0:05:12.880 --> 0:05:15.719 Some of you as that have asked for player props, Matt, 0:05:15.760 --> 0:05:17.560 I don't know about you. Like where I'm at DraftKings 0:05:17.600 --> 0:05:19.279 and especially in any of the online books, they're just 0:05:19.320 --> 0:05:21.359 not really out points. Bet has these props that you 0:05:21.400 --> 0:05:24.799 can do that are, you know, over under fifty yards, 0:05:24.880 --> 0:05:28.200 rushing over under seventy five yards, rushing at massive odds. 0:05:28.200 --> 0:05:29.440 I just think it's silly. 0:05:29.440 --> 0:05:32.040 To do, so I'll plug the live stream. That's what 0:05:32.080 --> 0:05:34.479 the live streams for. Okay, correct live stream is going 0:05:34.520 --> 0:05:37.120 to be a props player prop, I'm gonna give you 0:05:37.160 --> 0:05:39.680 my picks on the Daily Juice so you can hear 0:05:39.760 --> 0:05:43.000 my plays on Sunday for the Daily Juice, and chances are, 0:05:43.240 --> 0:05:46.760 unless there's like a gigantic crazy injury or a massive 0:05:46.839 --> 0:05:49.359 line swing, there's not going to be much change to 0:05:49.440 --> 0:05:51.839 my Daily Juice plays on Sunday morning heading into the 0:05:51.839 --> 0:05:54.680 Sunday morning live stream. But the player props will one 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:57.120 hundred percent be you know. That's where I'm gonna give 0:05:57.120 --> 0:05:58.799 you the player props. So if you want the player 0:05:58.800 --> 0:06:02.120 props live stream every Sunday morning at eleven o'clock Eastern 0:06:02.320 --> 0:06:03.640 on the Betting Pros YouTube channel. 0:06:03.800 --> 0:06:05.920 Yeah, and don't forget to subscribe. And if you want 0:06:05.920 --> 0:06:07.960 to be notified when mac go's live, click the notification 0:06:08.000 --> 0:06:10.520 button that I'll let you know. But also I do 0:06:10.600 --> 0:06:13.840 props because I do player projections because of Fantasy's that's 0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:15.800 where I'm at. So I will message Matt. I'm not 0:06:15.839 --> 0:06:17.440 gonna be on, but I will give Matt some of 0:06:17.440 --> 0:06:19.440 my player props that I like based on my projection 0:06:19.520 --> 0:06:20.479 so we can relay them there. 0:06:20.520 --> 0:06:22.039 All right, we've got to get into it. 0:06:22.080 --> 0:06:24.080 We've been talking a lot, but before we do, I'm 0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:26.320 just gonna say I hope that Matt does not have 0:06:26.400 --> 0:06:29.760 a particularly strong lean on the Saints lanth three and 0:06:29.800 --> 0:06:32.520 a half to the Packers, because I do not. But 0:06:33.000 --> 0:06:36.200 if the line were instead, if either team scores a touchdown, 0:06:36.279 --> 0:06:38.839 you win one hundred dollars, then I would take that, 0:06:39.279 --> 0:06:41.599 because that's what it is. If you go to bettingpros 0:06:41.640 --> 0:06:44.359 dot com slash bet MGM through that link, if you 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:46.640 bet a dollar on either team to win that game, 0:06:46.720 --> 0:06:48.520 you win one hundred dollars in free bets. 0:06:48.560 --> 0:06:49.920 If either team. 0:06:49.680 --> 0:06:52.479 Scores a touchdown either way, you win one hundred dollars 0:06:52.480 --> 0:06:54.200 in free bets. There is going to be a touchdown 0:06:54.360 --> 0:06:57.159 scored in that game. I can virtually guarantee it you 0:06:57.160 --> 0:07:00.359 will win. This available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, and 0:07:00.400 --> 0:07:03.080 West Virginia again betting pros dot Com slash bet MGM. 0:07:03.400 --> 0:07:05.880 Do not turn down free money, all right, Matt, start off? 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:08.440 Don't say sans and backers to lead off off here? 0:07:08.520 --> 0:07:10.200 Okay, I'll give you now. 0:07:10.280 --> 0:07:12.840 Am I giving you my most confident play or just 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:13.520 one that I like? 0:07:13.840 --> 0:07:15.760 And you know what, man, the world is your oyster. 0:07:15.880 --> 0:07:18.840 Whatever you want, I'm gonna go with probably what I 0:07:19.000 --> 0:07:21.760 like the most to what I like the least. So 0:07:21.840 --> 0:07:23.160 if you want to start that way or do whatever 0:07:23.200 --> 0:07:24.240 you want, it doesn't all right. 0:07:24.160 --> 0:07:25.880 To play that. I'm the most confident on The Patriots 0:07:25.880 --> 0:07:27.560 are going to kick the living daylights of the Raiders. 0:07:27.800 --> 0:07:30.239 Okay, so we're just to be clear. We'll talk about 0:07:30.240 --> 0:07:33.760 that very briefly. But that was also my most confident pick. 0:07:33.800 --> 0:07:34.720 So we we're locking at it. 0:07:34.720 --> 0:07:38.400 But they're going to absolutely wipe the field with the Raiders. 0:07:38.480 --> 0:07:41.680 And this is a classic spot for a young football team. 0:07:41.760 --> 0:07:44.760 Josh Jacobs was in that practice on Thursday. The Patriots 0:07:44.760 --> 0:07:46.920 are going to take away Darren Waller. Stefan Gilmour is 0:07:46.960 --> 0:07:49.600 furious after what happened with DK Metcalf eating his lunch. 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:51.880 If the Raiders score more than fourteen points, I'm going 0:07:51.960 --> 0:07:52.480 to be shocked. 0:07:52.760 --> 0:07:54.440 Oh all right, I'm not going to go that far. 0:07:54.480 --> 0:07:58.480 But yeah, this is a very classic Belichick against the 0:07:58.520 --> 0:08:00.760 spread after a loss is miraculous. 0:08:00.800 --> 0:08:02.200 I mean, he's, you know. 0:08:02.240 --> 0:08:04.600 Obviously, if not the greatest coach of all time, one 0:08:04.640 --> 0:08:06.560 of so he's mad. 0:08:06.640 --> 0:08:08.600 I mean you look at the picture. The picture says it, 0:08:08.640 --> 0:08:10.760 all right. He looks like God did, right. 0:08:10.840 --> 0:08:13.240 I mean, he is not going to go to sleep 0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:16.000 until he fixes all these old things in a game. 0:08:16.040 --> 0:08:19.280 By the way, that the Patriots were, you know, extremely. 0:08:18.800 --> 0:08:22.280 Close to winning one play, so one play exactly, So 0:08:22.560 --> 0:08:25.760 I love that play too. I really think that this 0:08:25.880 --> 0:08:27.920 is something where you mentioned it. I think they're going 0:08:27.960 --> 0:08:30.600 to take away a waller because that's exactly what they do. 0:08:30.760 --> 0:08:32.400 I think they're going to stack the box and they're 0:08:32.400 --> 0:08:35.640 going to say, okay, go ahead, beat us over the top, 0:08:35.720 --> 0:08:37.480 Derek Carr, and again they're traveling east. 0:08:37.559 --> 0:08:38.240 Don't forget that. 0:08:38.320 --> 0:08:41.160 It's just it's got all the hallmarks of a Patriots 0:08:41.160 --> 0:08:43.200 beat down. So it is five and a half. It 0:08:43.320 --> 0:08:46.079 is the Matt paraltism. But you're throwing it out right now. 0:08:46.080 --> 0:08:48.880 I will say one thing. On betting pros dot com, 0:08:48.880 --> 0:08:51.079 we have consensus lines. The consensus line is. 0:08:51.040 --> 0:08:53.199 Actually five, so it's going down. 0:08:53.640 --> 0:08:56.480 Yeah. So why Why is that though? 0:08:56.559 --> 0:08:59.240 Because the public is going to bet with their eyes 0:08:59.320 --> 0:09:03.560 off of Monday night football. Everyone everyone's flush with money. 0:09:03.600 --> 0:09:06.400 Everyone watched the Raiders beat the Saints. Oh my gosh. 0:09:06.559 --> 0:09:09.480 Bet MGM announced today that their number one liability for 0:09:09.520 --> 0:09:11.320 any team to win the Super Bowl are the Las 0:09:11.440 --> 0:09:14.360 Vegas Raiders. Okay, yeah, they are the new Cleveland Browns. 0:09:14.800 --> 0:09:16.720 Fade fade fade. 0:09:16.920 --> 0:09:19.600 So if you look on bettingpros dot com, which gives 0:09:19.600 --> 0:09:21.480 you the consensus lines, it also gives you lines of 0:09:21.480 --> 0:09:24.360 the various sports book it's basically torn between five and 0:09:24.400 --> 0:09:25.960 five and a half. If you look, you know, we 0:09:26.040 --> 0:09:29.640 have various experts from around the industry who make picks. 0:09:30.080 --> 0:09:32.960 New England is being picked with the spread right now 0:09:33.000 --> 0:09:36.320 at minus five. So that's you know, at eighty three percent. 0:09:36.520 --> 0:09:38.480 Eighty three percent of experts are taking them. It's just 0:09:38.480 --> 0:09:41.319 something where it's just it's the best game. It's the 0:09:41.360 --> 0:09:42.000 best game of the week. 0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:44.080 And my bookmakers could not have this game on the board. 0:09:44.120 --> 0:09:46.680 They take it down. Yeah, just chuck it up. You 0:09:46.720 --> 0:09:49.480 just say, okay, we lost, move on, okay, all right. 0:09:49.559 --> 0:09:51.960 So here's a game that I like, which I here's 0:09:52.120 --> 0:09:55.000 here's where I get a little worried about. 0:09:54.720 --> 0:09:57.840 This in the classic sort of way you try to 0:09:57.840 --> 0:10:01.320 think about gambling, which is the bylow sell high. Teams 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:02.720 are you know, never as bad. 0:10:02.600 --> 0:10:04.679 As they look sort of, you know the last week 0:10:04.720 --> 0:10:07.120 where they get absolutely blown out. Teams are never as 0:10:07.160 --> 0:10:09.600 good as they look when they're really winning. I thought 0:10:09.600 --> 0:10:12.800 that maybe with the Eagles last week with the Rams, 0:10:12.840 --> 0:10:15.000 and again that was the quote unquote sharp side. That's 0:10:15.000 --> 0:10:17.000 where the money came in. But for me, I'm gonna 0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:19.040 take the Titans, and you can let me know. The 0:10:19.080 --> 0:10:23.000 Titans minus two and a half in Minnesota. Now, if 0:10:23.040 --> 0:10:26.880 there were fans in Minnesota, I might be a little 0:10:27.040 --> 0:10:29.600 less confident on it. And this is a spot where 0:10:29.600 --> 0:10:33.319 you would say, well, I'm gonna buy low on Minnesota 0:10:33.400 --> 0:10:35.160 right now and I'm gonna sell high. 0:10:35.200 --> 0:10:36.479 I mean, it's not like the Titans. 0:10:36.200 --> 0:10:39.480 Have looked that good. They barely squeaked by the Jaguars. 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:42.920 They barely squeaked by the Broncos, although they should have 0:10:42.960 --> 0:10:45.679 won that game. They're probably gonna be without aj Brown 0:10:45.720 --> 0:10:49.840 here still. But Minnesota and that defense right now, I 0:10:49.880 --> 0:10:52.720 don't know if they're quite this bad that secondary, but 0:10:52.920 --> 0:10:55.599 I do know that as of right now, whether or 0:10:55.640 --> 0:10:58.559 not it's just because they're young and they're still getting 0:10:58.600 --> 0:11:01.200 their communication worked out right now, they're terrible. They are 0:11:01.240 --> 0:11:05.679 absolutely terrible. Tennessee is incredibly well coached. I like Mike 0:11:05.720 --> 0:11:08.200 Zimmer as a coach, but he cannot figure this out 0:11:08.520 --> 0:11:09.720 this quickly with what he has. 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:11.560 The fact that this is under a field goal. 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:13.400 For me, if it was over a field goal, I 0:11:13.440 --> 0:11:15.760 would I would be concerned. It's a key number three. 0:11:15.760 --> 0:11:17.840 But at two and a half, that's probably the game 0:11:17.880 --> 0:11:20.480 other than the one game that I love is the Patriots. 0:11:20.800 --> 0:11:23.080 Other than that, that's the game that I like second most. 0:11:23.120 --> 0:11:24.160 So what do you think about that one? 0:11:24.240 --> 0:11:26.640 I'm with you. It's on my list, and it is 0:11:26.679 --> 0:11:29.280 a It is a square play and it's going to 0:11:29.320 --> 0:11:31.040 be a number. Where it opened at one and a half, 0:11:31.080 --> 0:11:32.360 it's been bet to two and a half. I think 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:34.160 by the time it get to kick off it maybe three, 0:11:34.559 --> 0:11:36.480 but being under three is a key. So here's the 0:11:36.559 --> 0:11:38.760 number that everyone's talking about. If you're on Twitter, you've 0:11:38.760 --> 0:11:40.800 probably seen it a million times. Teams that are oh 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:43.599 into against the spread heading into week three oh and 0:11:43.640 --> 0:11:45.800 two against the spread, not oh and two overall oh 0:11:45.840 --> 0:11:48.320 and two against the spread, are twenty two and seven 0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:49.880 against the number in week three. 0:11:50.200 --> 0:11:50.440 Yep. 0:11:50.559 --> 0:11:52.800 So everyone's going to run around and say that they're 0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:54.480 gonna hamm and this is one of those games that 0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:57.520 fit into that narrative. Okay, so oh and two against 0:11:57.520 --> 0:12:00.679 the spread the Titans. The thing that the problem I've 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:03.040 got with that is that trends don't mean really anything 0:12:03.160 --> 0:12:05.520 going into a game. It's all about matchups. It's not 0:12:05.559 --> 0:12:08.040 about trends. It's about how do teams match up against 0:12:08.080 --> 0:12:11.360 each other. The secondary for this Vikings team is just 0:12:11.720 --> 0:12:14.880 got awful and it's really really young, so you can't 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:18.360 fix it overnight. The other problem is Kevin Sefanski. His 0:12:18.480 --> 0:12:21.920 offense is no longer there and Kirk Cousins looks atrocious. 0:12:22.360 --> 0:12:24.200 So I don't know if you fix that in one 0:12:24.280 --> 0:12:27.640 game in one week. Given that, the Titans are not happy. 0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:29.800 They're two and zero, but they're not happy about the 0:12:29.800 --> 0:12:32.280 way things are going. I mean, they didn't cover last week. 0:12:32.320 --> 0:12:35.480 They nearly they won the game by three, and you know, 0:12:35.559 --> 0:12:37.679 it wasn't that great to kind of watch. It was like, 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:39.880 oh my gosh, are they gonna blow this against Jacksonville? 0:12:40.080 --> 0:12:42.680 So they almost wound up being one and one, and 0:12:42.720 --> 0:12:44.600 then we know the kicking problems we had on Monday 0:12:44.679 --> 0:12:47.440 night two weeks ago. So the Titans have a lot 0:12:47.480 --> 0:12:49.360 to play for here and they're very angry about the 0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:51.320 way things are going. So you're right home field for 0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:53.800 the Vikings always one of the biggest deals. But pro 0:12:53.840 --> 0:12:56.320 football focus is rating this defense near the bottom of 0:12:56.320 --> 0:12:58.960 the entire NFL right now. So yeah, I'm taking the 0:12:58.960 --> 0:13:01.079 Titans here minus two and a half. I think we 0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:03.400 win the game. I'm with you on under under a 0:13:03.400 --> 0:13:05.319 field goal. Yeah, let's take the Titans. 0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:07.280 So there is one book out there again and got 0:13:07.280 --> 0:13:09.120 the consensus lines to see the book. Fox bet is 0:13:09.120 --> 0:13:11.400 at three already, so I wouldn't be surprised if it 0:13:11.440 --> 0:13:13.719 moves there. And again our experts seventy five percent of 0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:16.400 them as well, are going with the Titans laying two 0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:16.959 and a half. 0:13:17.440 --> 0:13:17.760 Again. 0:13:18.000 --> 0:13:19.560 That's why I think this is what we talked about, 0:13:19.559 --> 0:13:21.600 man at the beginning of the season, where a lack 0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:25.720 of continuity, be young team that's inexperienced, you need These 0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:28.600 preseason games were pretty critical to working out a lot 0:13:28.600 --> 0:13:30.240 of these issues, and they just don't have it, and 0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:32.720 there's no way they're going to work it out after 0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:35.160 how terrible they looked last week. So I like and 0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:37.280 backing a team like the Titans, by the way, makes 0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:40.120 me just feel because I'm so confident in the coaching staff, 0:13:40.280 --> 0:13:42.120 it just makes me feel like. 0:13:42.120 --> 0:13:43.960 It's like a security blanket a little bit. 0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:45.360 I'm like, well, Vrabel's not going to go there, and 0:13:45.360 --> 0:13:46.760 they're not going to just be like, oh yeah, we're 0:13:46.760 --> 0:13:49.000 gonna look past this team. It's not gonna work that way. 0:13:49.080 --> 0:13:50.679 So all right, you want to lock that one in. 0:13:50.720 --> 0:13:51.559 Then both of those two. 0:13:51.800 --> 0:13:53.240 All right, very good, good Titans. 0:13:53.280 --> 0:13:55.439 Those two done, done. Go to your next one. 0:13:55.880 --> 0:13:58.760 Chargers minus six and a half against the Carolina Panthers. 0:13:59.200 --> 0:14:02.240 On paper, Carol defensively is the worst defense in the NFL. 0:14:02.880 --> 0:14:04.840 Justin Herbert getting the start is a good thing for 0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:08.760 this team. I like Tyrod Taylor. Herbert is really really interesting. 0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:11.200 I think this kid is going to cause a ton 0:14:11.240 --> 0:14:14.640 of problems. And here's the big issue. Yes, no Derwin 0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:17.640 James is not there for the Chargers, but no run CMC. 0:14:18.800 --> 0:14:21.120 How are the Panthers going to score? I mean, it's 0:14:21.160 --> 0:14:23.320 all on Bridgewater now. And if you're gonna have him 0:14:23.320 --> 0:14:25.400 back there, this is a pass rush. It's gonna get 0:14:25.480 --> 0:14:28.280 up the field and get after Carolina. I'm laying less 0:14:28.280 --> 0:14:31.680 than a touchdown here, Chargers minus six and a half. 0:14:31.480 --> 0:14:34.280 All right, So I would say that I lean in 0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:37.880 that direction. I don't absolutely love it. I agree though, 0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:40.680 that the lack of CMC here, I'm surprised that this 0:14:40.720 --> 0:14:41.560 is under a touchdown. 0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:43.840 I really am Herbert I agree. 0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:47.640 Surprising to me because I talked pretty poorly about Herbert that, 0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:49.880 you know, just in terms of what his value would 0:14:49.880 --> 0:14:52.880 be in his rookie season. You think about really last week, 0:14:53.000 --> 0:14:54.960 the fact that he did not know he was starting 0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:59.680 until legitimately the coin toss is insane, and he played really, 0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:01.960 really we well, and they think he makes that offense better. 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:05.120 My one worry here and I think that seems he 0:15:05.200 --> 0:15:07.600 makes that Panther's offense much better. 0:15:07.840 --> 0:15:11.160 I think Mike Davis is a capable. 0:15:10.680 --> 0:15:12.760 Fill and not anywhere close to it, but they do 0:15:12.800 --> 0:15:16.160 have a lot of capable wide receivers in DJ Moore 0:15:16.200 --> 0:15:18.560 and Robbie Anderson, and they're going to get Curtis Samuel 0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:21.360 Moore involved. My worry here is maybe it was just 0:15:21.400 --> 0:15:22.720 because they were trying to keep the ball out of 0:15:22.720 --> 0:15:26.000 Patrick mahomes hands. But you saw what Anthony Lynn really 0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:29.200 desperately wants to do, which is run the ball as 0:15:29.320 --> 0:15:30.600 much as he possibly can. 0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:32.760 Kelly, Joshua Kelly had. 0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:35.640 Twenty three carries last week and he's not even the 0:15:35.680 --> 0:15:38.840 primary ball handler. You know, they could have probably put 0:15:38.880 --> 0:15:42.080 that game away if they were a little more adventurous. 0:15:42.280 --> 0:15:44.520 My worry here is adventurous. 0:15:44.720 --> 0:15:48.240 Okay, all right, Anthony Lynn had a backbone. 0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:50.120 You mean I'm being diplomatic? 0:15:50.760 --> 0:15:51.520 What grow up? 0:15:52.360 --> 0:15:54.000 So I think. 0:15:53.720 --> 0:15:56.920 That that is the way though, that he naturally wants 0:15:56.960 --> 0:15:59.120 to go. And yeah, it's under a touchdown, so that 0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:02.200 does serve make it a little easier. But I'm still 0:16:02.240 --> 0:16:04.960 not convinced that they'd be beyond the back door cover 0:16:05.440 --> 0:16:07.360 in this game, because I do think that even if 0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:09.200 they get ahead, they are the type of team that's 0:16:09.280 --> 0:16:10.400 gonna be like, oh, you know, we're just. 0:16:10.360 --> 0:16:12.600 Gonna run the back Chargers defense. You're gonna pass and 0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:14.920 throw that ball forty times a game. That Charger defense 0:16:15.000 --> 0:16:17.320 is gonna eat him. Bridgewater is gonna be run for 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:17.760 his life. 0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:18.560 It is fair. 0:16:18.840 --> 0:16:21.360 It is a line is not good and no node 0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:24.280 I don't again, this is another game like I don't 0:16:24.280 --> 0:16:26.640 know who scores more Panthers or Raiders, but neither one 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:27.320