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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast. All right, here

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Speaker 1: we go fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, horny

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Speaker 1: forty five fifty and the Kicks black pall stunned us.

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Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, please stumble and bumble the latter turn

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Speaker 1: to tatter on the exode g The lad.

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Speaker 2: Table off the fail the night.

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Speaker 1: By my god, it's not the size of the dog

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Speaker 1: in the fighting, it's the size of the fight in

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Speaker 1: all Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast, presented

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Speaker 1: by DraftKings Sportsbook. This is the five Deep Dive. I'm

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Speaker 1: like Caliberty, joined by my Action. We're co host Duck.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna get into everything in G five here in

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Speaker 1: week ten and hit our sounding off segment, and I'll

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Speaker 1: do a quick accounting by the way of my picks

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Speaker 1: in recent history here under the Group of five Deep

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Speaker 1: Dive banner. It's not been great. Actually, my picks have

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Speaker 1: been turbo dog shit. Let me just get this out

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Speaker 1: of the way right away. There's been some bad breaks,

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Speaker 1: some bad looks. It doesn't matter. Nobody cares why you

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Speaker 1: get it wrong. You're wrong. You have to deal with it. Luckily,

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Speaker 1: we have a Bad Beats hotline nine five nine bad beats.

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Speaker 1: It's your god given right as an American, as someone

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Speaker 1: listening to this podcast to call me a candy, as

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Speaker 1: to call me a non ball no or a square,

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Speaker 1: you know, a chump that comes with a territory. That

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Speaker 1: being said, I get to have a bit of a

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Speaker 1: rebuttle here. I'm just as mad about my bets losing

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Speaker 1: as you are, because I've lost my heart earned money

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Speaker 1: on it. I've also had a deal with that's what

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Speaker 1: I thought were decent. And then just watch them just

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Speaker 1: go up and smoke right in front of me. Stats

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Speaker 1: of War aka Parker Fleming there on Twitter. He does

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Speaker 1: that little graphic every week on Sunday morning. Did we

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Speaker 1: get beat? That bad question mark? Where he gets into

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Speaker 1: the net success rate the third weirdest loss according to

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Speaker 1: that metric, Buffalo against Akron on Saturday. Let me just

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Speaker 1: go real quick on Pete Limbo. I'm sick of carrying

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Speaker 1: your goddamn water. Pete. You really screwed me on this one.

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Speaker 1: Five giveaways, a fake field goal gone wrong. I thought

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Speaker 1: you were a special team, Sabant. We'd spend you know,

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Speaker 1: half of August talking about Max special teams for no reason.

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Speaker 1: In particular. I guess that you know, good special teams

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Speaker 1: can go bad. Bad special teams make all their kicks.

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Speaker 1: They also got stuffed on fourth and one at the

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Speaker 1: Akron thirty two against an Acron defense made up of

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Speaker 1: you know, misfits of I can't even get into how

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Speaker 1: bad their defense should be on paper, but apparently when

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Speaker 1: they needed to do, they got stops. They got off

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Speaker 1: the field. You also lost to a team this is

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Speaker 1: for you, Buffalo, that went two for fourteen on third

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Speaker 1: downs two point three yards per care. You lost that

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Speaker 1: game somehow. So not only was that bad news for

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Speaker 1: me when you look at the rest of my card

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Speaker 1: FAU three giveaways Missouri State three giveaways, but I want

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Speaker 1: to save the one that was most frustrating for last,

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Speaker 1: which you know I went over to my best bets

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Speaker 1: last week. As I mentioned, feel free to call into

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Speaker 1: the hotline throw some more dirt on my grave. The

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Speaker 1: app State Old Dominion over You ready for this app

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Speaker 1: State touchdown taking off the board for an offensive pass

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Speaker 1: interference call. It was a rub they called a pass interference.

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Speaker 1: Whatever next play interception in the end zone, of course,

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Speaker 1: app State and interception at the Old Dominion twelve yard line.

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Speaker 1: On the other side, Old Dominion gets it second in

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Speaker 1: goal at the Mountaineer's one yard line. What do they do?

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Speaker 1: Penalty and then they throw an interception. They also miss

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Speaker 1: not one, not to but three field goals in that game,

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Speaker 1: eight hundred and thirty three total yards of offense and

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Speaker 1: only forty five points. That's underporn, just unadulterated. You should

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Speaker 1: have to put in your driver's license in the state

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Speaker 1: of Texas to be able to watch the replay of

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Speaker 1: that game. That's how bad it was. So all that

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Speaker 1: off my chest here, I'm gonna kick it to you, duck.

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Speaker 1: I know that we have not been trending in the

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Speaker 1: right direction. I'm frustrated. You're frustrated. Just makes us work

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Speaker 1: harder in terms of our research. And sometimes you just

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Speaker 1: run cold. I've been running real cold. I deserve the

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Speaker 1: heat that I'm getting. Please continue to list, and please

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Speaker 1: continue to comments. Throw you know anything you want to us,

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Speaker 1: as long as that's a five star review there in

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Speaker 1: the app store. Douc, what are your thoughts on recent

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Speaker 1: history here on the pod and what are you sounding

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Speaker 1: off on before we get into week ten?

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean, I'm not happy about it and if

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Speaker 3: you gamble for any length of time, you know that

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Speaker 3: these stretches do come, they are imminent that they're going

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Speaker 3: We're gonna have to grind through this, and we are

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Speaker 3: working hard, and we're putting the burning the candle at

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Speaker 3: both ends and putting the work in to try to

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Speaker 3: find winners for everybody. We're not happy about it. We

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Speaker 3: know it's been shitit lately, but we're grinding and we're

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Speaker 3: going to get this turnaround.

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Speaker 1: And the season in.

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Speaker 3: Totality has been a success, so we're getting back to work.

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Speaker 3: My sounding off tonight, Clay Helton. The clock management at

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Speaker 3: the end of that one, for those that were unaware,

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Speaker 3: was atrocious. Georgia Southern arc State, we had the over.

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Speaker 3: It didn't hit thirty eight points in the first half,

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Speaker 3: forty five points with nine minutes left in the third quarter.

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Speaker 3: Both teams ran cold. At one point, the live over

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Speaker 3: under was seventy six and a half down thirty one

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Speaker 3: to twenty one with nine minutes left. Georgia Southern goes

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Speaker 3: on a drive. The Eagles get down to the Arkansas

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Speaker 3: State thirteen yard line with six minutes to go, down

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Speaker 3: two scores. They have absolutely zero urgency. They run eight

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Speaker 3: plays from inside the thirteen yard line. They are all

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Speaker 3: running plays. There's no urgency, there's no pace, there's no

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Speaker 3: timeouts called, there's no pass plays. They just don't give

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Speaker 3: a shit. Did they kick a field goal with two

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Speaker 3: minutes left to go? Of course they don't get the

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Speaker 3: ball back, it doesn't go over the total, but my goodness,

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Speaker 3: Clay Hilton, that was just so atrocious from a descending

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Speaker 3: team that needs wins and they could not have cared

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Speaker 3: less about scoring on that possession. Just absolutely awful.

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Speaker 1: Before we get into our best bets here for Week ten,

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Speaker 1: let's toss over is stucky For a quick word from DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: Nice, Duck. Now, as we turn to our best bets

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Speaker 1: for this week, we have a reminder for you if

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Speaker 1: you like to tail anything that you're hearing in today's episode,

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Speaker 1: they're going to be quick slip links in the podcast

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Speaker 1: and video description. It's going to allow you to populate

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Speaker 1: your bets in your sports book of choice, or you

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Speaker 1: immediately get notifications anytime and Action Network expert tracks a pick,

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Speaker 1: BBOC twenty to get on board. All right, Duck, I'm

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Speaker 1: going to come out fire in here. I'm going to

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Speaker 1: go to a tried and true part of this pod,

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Speaker 1: which is over on UAB Football Games sixty four and

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Speaker 1: a half between the Blazers and the Yukon Huskies overs.

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Speaker 1: As I've talked about, you know really since I started

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Speaker 1: on the show years ago. It needs three elements. Needs pace,

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Speaker 1: needs explosive offenses, and it needs defenses that lack fundamentals

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Speaker 1: and they just give up big plays. Now, together Yukon

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Speaker 1: and UAB, Yukon six and two to the over this year,

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Speaker 1: UAB five and two. They're both top ten in terms

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Speaker 1: of average points beyond the closing total. So they've been

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Speaker 1: blowing past these numbers throughout the season. So why is

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Speaker 1: this one hanging in the mid sixties. That's a reasonable

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Speaker 1: question to ask if you're out there listening to this pod.

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Speaker 1: It's because of the pace. Yukon's forty seventh and seconds

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Speaker 1: per place sixty fifth in place per game, and season

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Speaker 1: long numbers for UAB are in the same neighborhood. But

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Speaker 1: what did mort do in his first game as the

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Speaker 1: head coach in that big upset against Memphis. He used

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Speaker 1: his pace to protect his defense. He knows that his

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Speaker 1: defense is horrific, So what he did was he dropped

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Speaker 1: it all the way down into the you know, over

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Speaker 1: the thirty second threshold, which is just about as slow

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Speaker 1: as you can go in terms of pace in modern

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Speaker 1: college football to protect that defense. So what do I

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Speaker 1: need Yukon to do in this one? I need them

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Speaker 1: to set the pace in terms of scoring. So UEB

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Speaker 1: has no choice but to play catchup. Can they do it?

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Speaker 1: I think they're absolutely up to it because they're you know,

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Speaker 1: passing tack is an incredibly explosive eleventh and aerial explosive

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Speaker 1: twenty fifth in big plays overall from this Yukon offense,

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Speaker 1: and they've done damage against lousy defens's Finnano has been

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Speaker 1: spinning it picking teams apart all season. Eighteen passing touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: zero interceptions, eleven big time throws to just three turnover

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Speaker 1: worthy plays. And as we know, we beat the drum.

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Speaker 1: You know, all this time under Trent Dilfer, he never

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Speaker 1: fixed it in the portal. His defensive coordinator choice ends

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Speaker 1: up being, you know, not an inspired one because at

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Speaker 1: this point they're one hundred and thirty fourth in coverage,

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Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty fifth in pass success defense, one

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty first in pass rush. So there's no

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Speaker 1: help coming from any angle. It's not like they can

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Speaker 1: get to the quarterback it's not like they can leave

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Speaker 1: their corners on islands and when you get the ball,

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Speaker 1: you automatically gets points. Against this Blazer defense, they're given

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Speaker 1: up three point five yards per drive, which is one

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty fourth in the country. Now, their win

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Speaker 1: over Memphis, in my opinion, as I mentioned earlier, was

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Speaker 1: a defensive anomaly because they had played keep away for

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Speaker 1: so much of it. They also faced a backup quarterback

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Speaker 1: in the second half that the Memphis staff didn't have time,

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Speaker 1: you know, ahead of the game to be able to

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Speaker 1: put a package around him or even get him any

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Speaker 1: you know, kind of reps for him to feel comfortable.

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Speaker 1: They also get stuffed at the one yard line at

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Speaker 1: the end of that game, otherwise it goes to overtime

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Speaker 1: at thirty one. Thirty one, and that's going to be

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Speaker 1: another number that goes over in a UAB game this year.

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Speaker 1: So instead they get a false start at the one,

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Speaker 1: they get two incompletions, another delay of game with a

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Speaker 1: backup quarterback, and then in completion to end that game.

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Speaker 1: So in terms of games going over, I think UAB

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Speaker 1: is still one of the safest bets out there on

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Speaker 1: the board in terms of taking overs. And finally, I

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Speaker 1: like the UAB offense. Whether it's you know, Ryder Burden

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Speaker 1: or Kitten in this game, it's unclear who's going to

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Speaker 1: be this like both of them. Corey Milliner, one of

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Speaker 1: their star wide receivers, he basically stepped away from the

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Speaker 1: team after three weeks. He was averaging a touchdown per

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Speaker 1: game over ninety yards receiving. It looked like he was

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Speaker 1: just going to pack up his stuff and go to

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Speaker 1: the portal. But then Trent gets fired and all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden, he's back at practice and more just saying

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Speaker 1: there's things that he needs to do to get back

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Speaker 1: on the field. Well, he's been practicing this entire week,

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Speaker 1: so the likelihood of him playing increases by the day.

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Speaker 1: And if you add him into a receiving corps that's

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Speaker 1: already really dangerous. I think that's going to be interesting

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Speaker 1: against a Yukon defense that allows a very high completion rate.

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Speaker 1: They try to keep things in front of them, but

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Speaker 1: they struggle to wrap up when it comes to tackling.

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Speaker 1: They're outside of the top one hundred there, and that's

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Speaker 1: why they lost to Rice. Rice just ran the ball,

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Speaker 1: ran the ball, ran the ball. They missed twenty eight

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Speaker 1: tackles against the Owls elves Gaugium for three hundred yards

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Speaker 1: on the ground. I think UAB has the balance, whether

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Speaker 1: it's the run game or the pass game to put

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Speaker 1: up points here, and I'm going to go with over.

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Speaker 1: So I'm going to get that kickstarted for our best

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Speaker 1: bets here over sixty four and a half between UAB

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Speaker 1: and Yukon. Let's hear your first play of week ten here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm laying it with San Diego State ten and

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Speaker 3: a half. There might be a rogue ten out there,

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Speaker 3: so shop around trying and get the best line. That

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Speaker 3: was such a spot last week for Wyoming in the

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Speaker 3: last scheduled Border War battle for the boot game. For

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Speaker 3: some time, you absolutely knew that they were showing up

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Speaker 3: at home in that one. But I'm still not overly

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Speaker 3: impressed with Wyoming and what we've seen from them this season.

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Speaker 3: They've faced two of the worst defenses in the Mount

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Speaker 3: West Conference and back to back weeks, and they now

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Speaker 3: have to line up against the best graded defense in

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Speaker 3: the conference, San Diego State top top defensive grades per

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Speaker 3: PFF run defense, their first tackling, their first coverage grades,

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Speaker 3: their first special teams. San Diego State is tops in

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Speaker 3: the conference. The Aztecs are giving up two point seven

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Speaker 3: yards per carry on the ground this season, allowing just

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Speaker 3: eighty eight rushing yards per game. The rush offense for

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Speaker 3: San Diego State two hundred yards or more in three

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Speaker 3: straight weeks. Jaden Danigall and his emergence as a passer

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Speaker 3: has been huge to unlock several elements for this offense.

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Speaker 3: Wyoming has no pass rush whatsoever. One hundred and thirty

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Speaker 3: first in defensive havoc and Denegal should have time to

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Speaker 3: go through his progressions, Let the passing routes develop, and

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Speaker 3: they'll throw it all over Wyoming in this game. San

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Speaker 3: Diego State's defense sixteenth and defensive explosiveness allowed twentieth, in

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Speaker 3: defensive success rate thirty third and surrendering explosivity. Wyoming wants

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Speaker 3: to run the ball and their pass explosiveness is limited.

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Speaker 3: I don't foresee Wyoming going in there and being able

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Speaker 3: to run the ball on San Diego State, and so

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Speaker 3: that's going to force Caden Anderson to have to throw

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Speaker 3: the ball more with his arm. When they throw the ball,

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Speaker 3: more bad things happen, they turn it over more player

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Speaker 3: for player. I think San Diego State's coverage unit is

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Speaker 3: able to blanket Chris Durr and Jalen Sargent, who are

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Speaker 3: the two most explosive Wyoming receivers. This is a downer

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Speaker 3: spot for Wyoming. Last week was the spot for them.

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Speaker 3: This week They're in a tough spot here. I'm laying

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Speaker 3: it with the Aztecs.

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Speaker 1: I was going to save this for the best of

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Speaker 1: the rest, but I'm going to go under. In that

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Speaker 1: same game between Wyoming and San Diego State, you laid

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Speaker 1: out a lot of the lot of the reasons San

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Speaker 1: Diego State has quietly turned themselves into one of the

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Speaker 1: best G five defenses. They got two shutouts on the year.

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Speaker 1: They won a pitcher's dual six to three against Northern Illinois.

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Speaker 1: They played three of their last five games at thirty

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Speaker 1: four total points or fewer between their offense and what

281
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Speaker 1: they're allowing. So I think the under forty two and

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Speaker 1: a half there is a good spot. And when you

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Speaker 1: look at it, this Wyoming offense, as you mentioned, is

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Speaker 1: not there statistically, but they also had their best chance

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Speaker 1: the entire year to move the football. They played Air Force,

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Speaker 1: who was just absolutely horrific. Their advanced stat sheet is

287
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Speaker 1: just bleeding red everywhere, and they scored twenty one points.

288
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Speaker 1: So it's really not even the only issue this year

289
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Speaker 1: in terms of performance, and then playing down to certain opponents,

290
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Speaker 1: they scored seventeen points, you know, the average seventeen points

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Speaker 1: on the road this year, despite drawing Akron and that

292
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Speaker 1: Air Force team that I just mentioned. So when you

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Speaker 1: put that together with the Aztec fast, you know, that's

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Speaker 1: tongue in cheek. They play at that one hundred and

295
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Speaker 1: twenty six seconds between one hundred and twenty six in

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Speaker 1: the nation in terms of seconds between plays, So I

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Speaker 1: just see them. So in this game down both teams

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Speaker 1: are pretty good at limiting and I think because of

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Speaker 1: that reason, you're going to see something like, let's call

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Speaker 1: it San Diego State thirty one, Wyoming ten, or you know,

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Speaker 1: maybe even Wyoming doesn't get to ten in this game.

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Speaker 1: In terms of that fitting into your great game script.

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Speaker 1: Do you see that kind of a laugher for San

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Speaker 1: Diego State and going into a bit of a shell

305
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Speaker 1: they're four minute offense in the fourth quarter. I do.

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Speaker 3: And you know you've seen them at home with a

307
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Speaker 3: propensity to just sit on leads in the second half,

308
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Speaker 3: and they have played lights out defensively at home this season.

309
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Speaker 3: California zero points. Colorado State had some garbage time touchdowns

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Speaker 3: when that game was well in hand, Stony Brook was

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Speaker 3: shut out. I mean, this is just a team that

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Speaker 3: plays significantly better defense. I've played good defense all season

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Speaker 3: at this point now, but really really stout defensive performances

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Speaker 3: at home. And I do think that the pace is

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Speaker 3: one where I mean, they've got a really important trip

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Speaker 3: coming up at Hawaii following this game, and so yeah,

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Speaker 3: I could see them getting this game to a twenty

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Speaker 3: four to three, thirty one to three, and then we're

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Speaker 3: going to sit out the last eight minutes and just

320
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Speaker 3: grind this clock down, get the win, and then it's

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Speaker 3: off for the island.

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Speaker 1: My second best bet here for Week ten Wazoo lay

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Speaker 1: in three and a half against Oregon State. Wazoo, I mean,

324
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Speaker 1: it's been the western outpost of college football for years.

325
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Speaker 1: Out there in the police. You know, they've been overlooked

326
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Speaker 1: because of their late night kicks, the PAC twelve after Dark,

327
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Speaker 1: the PAC twelve network now the CW network is basically

328
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Speaker 1: where they live. So they keep getting banished further and

329
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Speaker 1: further away from the spotlight in relative obscurity, though they're

330
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Speaker 1: cobbling together a winning season. They're four and four right now,

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Speaker 1: with two wildly impressive losses, three point losses to Ole

332
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Speaker 1: Miss and Virginia on the road, and that was an

333
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Speaker 1: awful back to back travel spot for them. They lose,

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Speaker 1: you know, twenty two to twenty actually to Virginia and

335
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Speaker 1: then three points to link Iffin an Old Miss. So

336
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Speaker 1: I think with what they've been able to do recently,

337
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Speaker 1: they return, they show that they have fight. Offensively, they

338
00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:49,800
Speaker 1: play against Toledo, they beat the brakes off of them

339
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Speaker 1: twenty eight to seven. They're four and four right now.

340
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Speaker 1: I think this is going to be a bowl team.

341
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Speaker 1: And whatever happened in those early season losses they lost

342
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Speaker 1: in North Texas, who we now know is juggernaut offensively

343
00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,320
Speaker 1: and Washington, they gave up fifty nine points to both

344
00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:05,880
Speaker 1: of those opposing offenses. That is now a distant memory

345
00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:09,240
Speaker 1: because they're tackling has improved. They're not giving up explosives anymore,

346
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Speaker 1: and they're playing that bend but not break defense. They

347
00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,080
Speaker 1: continue to make stands in the red zone. They're thirty

348
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Speaker 1: fourth in red zone scoring defense percentage this year. So

349
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Speaker 1: against this Oregon State team, I don't see that changing.

350
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Speaker 1: I think the defense is going to continue to trend

351
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Speaker 1: in the right direction and Zev the wolf Eckhouse now

352
00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:28,000
Speaker 1: that he's back running this offense as their QB one,

353
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Speaker 1: They're playing the brand of football that Jimmy Rodgers brought

354
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Speaker 1: with them from the FCS ranks. They want to run

355
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Speaker 1: the football and they want to play super slow and

356
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Speaker 1: play keep away. Oregon State on the other side of

357
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Speaker 1: this matchup, they can't go bowling. They fired their head coach,

358
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Speaker 1: their interim head coach gave him a bit of that

359
00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:44,280
Speaker 1: bump that sometimes we see. But they're playing against an

360
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Speaker 1: FCS Patriot League team in Lafayette that was having a

361
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Speaker 1: weird mid season cross country road trip that they were

362
00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:51,920
Speaker 1: not used to at all. So congrats on that. Congrats

363
00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:54,920
Speaker 1: on not going over for the season. Anthony Hankerson finally

364
00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:57,840
Speaker 1: showed up a guy who was up borderline All American

365
00:16:57,920 --> 00:17:01,080
Speaker 1: last year who had basically disappeared is Offensively, they couldn't

366
00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:03,280
Speaker 1: block for him and defenses were keying in on him.

367
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Speaker 1: While he has this huge game in the season, goes

368
00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:07,920
Speaker 1: over two hundred yards, that's nice, but Wazoo is a

369
00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:11,399
Speaker 1: huge step up defensively, from a middling FCS team, and

370
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Speaker 1: this Oregon State offense they still can't pass, they can't

371
00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:17,040
Speaker 1: protect their quarterback, and they can't put together quality drives consistently.

372
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Speaker 1: So when I see all that, you know, the fact

373
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Speaker 1: that they're one hundred and twenty fourth in quality drives,

374
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Speaker 1: that is now a real stat. More than halfway through

375
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Speaker 1: the season, we're kind of pulling out the noise from

376
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Speaker 1: you know, opponent adjusted perspective. Oregon States offense just stinks.

377
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Speaker 1: So I look at this in terms of, you know,

378
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Speaker 1: what this Wazoo team has been able to do. Yes,

379
00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:42,800
Speaker 1: you know they've had some interesting downsides earlier in the season,

380
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Speaker 1: but I see them finally elevating against an Oregon State

381
00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:48,360
Speaker 1: team that you look at it cal with a true

382
00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:51,280
Speaker 1: freshman quarterback in his very first college start, just worked them.

383
00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:54,240
Speaker 1: Fresno beats him, wake Forest beats them at home. So

384
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Speaker 1: I don't think there's really anything to worry about in

385
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Speaker 1: terms of Corvallis being a situation even in one of

386
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Speaker 1: the the first of two pack twelve games where they're

387
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Speaker 1: going to play these you know, head to heads home

388
00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:07,520
Speaker 1: and away. Yeah, maybe that'll mean something in the first quarter,

389
00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:09,600
Speaker 1: but Oregon State This is just kind of a nightmare

390
00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:12,440
Speaker 1: season for them. The only competitive game they've really played

391
00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:14,879
Speaker 1: this entire season was against Houston at home, and that

392
00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:17,000
Speaker 1: was because they had a clean sheet, was zero turnovers.

393
00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:20,959
Speaker 1: I see this Wazoo defense forcing them into some dicey situations,

394
00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:23,320
Speaker 1: putting the ball in harm's way and being plus one

395
00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:25,440
Speaker 1: plus two in the turnover battle. Give me Jimmy Rodgers

396
00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:27,840
Speaker 1: this defense and a whole lot to play for, not

397
00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,600
Speaker 1: just today or on Saturday, but you know, as they

398
00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:33,680
Speaker 1: march towards Bowl eligibility, go Koog's a late three and

399
00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:34,960
Speaker 1: a half, all right, closes out here?

400
00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:37,480
Speaker 3: Duck yeah, Boise State, I'm laying the seventeen and a

401
00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:39,480
Speaker 3: half at home. You look at Fresno State. They just

402
00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:42,080
Speaker 3: got smoke last week against San Diego State, getting shut

403
00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:44,760
Speaker 3: out at home for the first time ever. Quarterback EJ.

404
00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:48,680
Speaker 3: Warner was benched in favor of Carson Conklin. He threw

405
00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:52,440
Speaker 3: the ball forty two times against the Aztecs, two interceptions

406
00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:56,400
Speaker 3: in just four point three yards per pass attempt. Fresno

407
00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:59,760
Speaker 3: State is void of an identity right now. They've only

408
00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:01,920
Speaker 3: run on for one hundred and sixty five combined yards

409
00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:03,720
Speaker 3: and two and a half yards per carry the last

410
00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:05,960
Speaker 3: two weeks. This is a team that wants to line

411
00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,360
Speaker 3: up in twelve or thirteen personnel, get the tight ends

412
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 3: involved in the run blocking game, and just pound the rock,

413
00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:14,720
Speaker 3: and they've completely gone away from it. Fresno is the

414
00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:18,200
Speaker 3: third worst rated defensive team in the Mountain West per PFF,

415
00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:20,639
Speaker 3: and they're in the bottom half of the league in

416
00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:24,840
Speaker 3: pass coverage grades, pass rush tackling. I just do not

417
00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:27,040
Speaker 3: suspect that this team is going to be able to

418
00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:30,680
Speaker 3: stop Boise State. Here Fresno defensively one hundred and twenty

419
00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:34,440
Speaker 3: at an overall defensive success rate one sixteenth, and finishing

420
00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:38,320
Speaker 3: drives the Bulldogs are one eighteenth and early down success well,

421
00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:40,600
Speaker 3: that spells trouble against Boise State. They're going to run

422
00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:42,560
Speaker 3: the ball on first and second down and play action

423
00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:45,160
Speaker 3: with Maddox Madson off of it. They're getting the tight

424
00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:48,080
Speaker 3: ends more involved in the passing game. I just do

425
00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:51,200
Speaker 3: not see a situation where Fresno State is able to

426
00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:55,080
Speaker 3: contain Boise State. And now with the lost identity, they're

427
00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:58,120
Speaker 3: going away from what has made them a stronger team

428
00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:00,520
Speaker 3: at points during this season, going to be able to

429
00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:03,680
Speaker 3: keep up Boise State ninth, and pass play success rate

430
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:07,440
Speaker 3: defensively sixteenth and overall defensive success rate Fresno State the

431
00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:09,960
Speaker 3: last two weeks that combined nine of thirty on third

432
00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:13,080
Speaker 3: down and zero four in the red zone just spells

433
00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:16,040
Speaker 3: trouble for a team that is just lost at this

434
00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:18,200
Speaker 3: point in the season. So I'm laying the seventeen and

435
00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:19,400
Speaker 3: a half with Boise at home.

436
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:35,880
Speaker 1: I got. Before we get into our G five money

437
00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:37,960
Speaker 1: line parlay, we have to talk about one of the

438
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 1: biggest games in the American really across the G five

439
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,159
Speaker 1: for this entire season, and that's Navy against North Texas.

440
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:45,480
Speaker 1: There is a log jam of teams that are either

441
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:48,720
Speaker 1: undefeated or only have one loss in American play, so

442
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:51,639
Speaker 1: this one has been circled by everybody. It should be

443
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:54,199
Speaker 1: a fun game, it should be high scoring, and certainly

444
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:56,280
Speaker 1: for the winner, there is a path to the College

445
00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:59,480
Speaker 1: football Playoffs still available to them. Talk me through what

446
00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:01,880
Speaker 1: you're seeing with the midshipmen and the mein Green.

447
00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:03,840
Speaker 3: Could be the game of the day in the entire slate.

448
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:06,400
Speaker 3: This is going to be an absolutely exquisite football game.

449
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,160
Speaker 3: One on them I'll have on the main TV. Really

450
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,400
Speaker 3: approve it spot for Navy after you look at their

451
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:14,960
Speaker 3: Sharmansov schedule that they've played up to this point, including

452
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,720
Speaker 3: five of the lower half teams in the American Conference

453
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,160
Speaker 3: along with Air Force and VMI, and the non con

454
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:24,080
Speaker 3: The concern here is that Navy gives up the yards

455
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:26,880
Speaker 3: and the points through the air in bunches. They've given

456
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:29,120
Speaker 3: up over four hundred and fifty yards and thirty plus

457
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:32,080
Speaker 3: points each of the last three weeks. They were very

458
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:34,639
Speaker 3: fortuitous to come out with the win against Temple a

459
00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:38,119
Speaker 3: couple of weeks back, and the Midies struggled with Tulsa

460
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:40,480
Speaker 3: for three quarters before pulling away on the road. So

461
00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:44,040
Speaker 3: the road performances have not been great. North Texas's offense

462
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:47,240
Speaker 3: is elite. They've been playing well all season. I've been

463
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 3: so impressed with mess Maker. Who should feast on this

464
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:55,200
Speaker 3: Navy secondary, which is one hundred and thirteenth in explosiveness

465
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:58,359
Speaker 3: given up one hundred and sixth in epaight per pass

466
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 3: one to twenty eighth in earl down explosiveness allowed. And

467
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:05,280
Speaker 3: so this Navy secondary and the athletes that are lining

468
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 3: up at linebacker and safety and corner are really just

469
00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:11,040
Speaker 3: gonna be up against US. North Texas should score here

470
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:13,679
Speaker 3: and they should score a ton. So the question now

471
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,600
Speaker 3: becomes is the mean Green able to stop this Navy

472
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 3: attack while they were shredded in the second half against

473
00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:23,200
Speaker 3: Army as the scheme just wore down this defensive front.

474
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 3: We saw it time and time again where Army just

475
00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 3: kept coming after North Texas and North Texas could not

476
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:32,119
Speaker 3: stop any of it. They couldn't stop any of the

477
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:35,359
Speaker 3: triple option elements, the fullback dive, the quarterback followed the sweep.

478
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 3: They just could not stop it. So North Texas's total

479
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 3: defense the last three extumely the last five weeks, has

480
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:44,680
Speaker 3: surrendered four hundred and thirty eight yards per game and

481
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:48,200
Speaker 3: thirty three points per game allowed. Navy has been excellent

482
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 3: this season on third down and cashing in for touchdowns

483
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 3: in the red zone. Twenty nine out of thirty two

484
00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 3: red zone trips have resulted in scores, twenty six of

485
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:59,680
Speaker 3: those being touchdowns for the middies. Navy is six and

486
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 3: off defensive success rate fifth and EPA per play. This

487
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 3: is going to be a completely tough test for North

488
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:10,119
Speaker 3: Texas's defense. The hesitation that I would have here with

489
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,440
Speaker 3: this one because it does look like a dead nut

490
00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:15,280
Speaker 3: over this is the second time that North Texas has

491
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 3: seen a triple option type of scheme. And of course

492
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 3: we all remember what happened last year when Army went

493
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 3: down there and we expected this Plinko board of points

494
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 3: and it ended fourteen to three. So there is some

495
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 3: sort of avariants that could cause for this to not

496
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 3: be high scoring. But what I see here is Navy's

497
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 3: team total over twenty eight and a half. They've exceeded

498
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:39,159
Speaker 3: this point total in every game except for one this season.

499
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 3: I think they eclipse it here. I think they'll be

500
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 3: able to match North Texas score for score if they

501
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 3: have the lead in the fourth quarter. It's because they've

502
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:49,639
Speaker 3: scored at least twenty eight and a half. And if

503
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:53,200
Speaker 3: they're playing from behind, they'll be able to increase the tempo,

504
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 3: which we've seen. We've seen this Brian Newberry and Drew

505
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,240
Speaker 3: Chronic system do in two minute offenses.

506
00:23:59,280 --> 00:23:59,640
Speaker 1: This season.

507
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:01,639
Speaker 3: They've selled in two minutes at the end of the

508
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,359
Speaker 3: first half, so they can run some tempo when needed.

509
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 3: But either way, I think that Navy keeps this game tight.

510
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:10,359
Speaker 3: My official play here is Navy team total over twenty

511
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 3: eight and a half.

512
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:13,920
Speaker 1: I talked about it on the Saturday Live Show, taking

513
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 1: Fau on a flyer. They end up back to wearing

514
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:20,360
Speaker 1: a cover there against the midshipman. Justin Ross. I brought

515
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 1: him up. He's the best corner for Navy. He did

516
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 1: not play against Fau. He's easily that, you know, the

517
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 1: highest rated guy in coverage. This is potentially going to

518
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 1: be a disaster if he can't go. You know, Navy

519
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 1: is one of those schools that keeps us very close

520
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 1: to the best in terms of their injury report. Who's

521
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:38,159
Speaker 1: going to play? So maybe I mean this would be

522
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 1: the final you know, nailing the coffin for me in

523
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 1: terms of their defense being able to do anything in

524
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 1: terms of slowing down UNC. So just something to consider

525
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:50,680
Speaker 1: if you look at you know, early morning Saturday player availabilities.

526
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,119
Speaker 1: If you see anything about Ross, it's the difference between

527
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:55,120
Speaker 1: them being able to get off the field at all

528
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 1: or just being basically, you know, a seven on seven

529
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:00,359
Speaker 1: drill for mess to maker just picking them up up

530
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,199
Speaker 1: and down the field. All right, With that, we are

531
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 1: now on to our G five moneyline parlay presented by DraftKings.

532
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

533
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 2: money line parlay.

534
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,199
Speaker 1: We are going to go through here, pair up two games,

535
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 1: give it to you, and hopefully we got some winners here.

536
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 1: I'm gonna get it started with one that's currently a pick.

537
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,160
Speaker 1: It's about minus one oh five. I would play it's

538
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 1: you know, I know that it should be a true underdog,

539
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,680
Speaker 1: but this one I'm just confused by. And it's air

540
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 1: Force against Army, and the cap is pretty simple. I'm

541
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 1: on air Force in this spot because the argument for

542
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 1: unders and close games when service academies are battling for

543
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 1: the Commander in Chief trophy is that they have familiarity

544
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:46,680
Speaker 1: with what with one another. They see exactly what you

545
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:48,920
Speaker 1: know their opponent is going to run and practice every

546
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 1: single week. That's just no longer the case that was

547
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:54,920
Speaker 1: old narrative. That's you know, twenty ten, thinking in terms

548
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,440
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty five. Whether it's Navy or whether it's

549
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,640
Speaker 1: air Force, they're doing different things, sophisticated things with their

550
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,679
Speaker 1: passing attack because air Force really has two offensive settings.

551
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 1: They have their traditional flexbone triple option, which they can

552
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 1: run from under center pistol, from the shotgun. You know,

553
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:11,680
Speaker 1: they blend in elements there. But then they also have

554
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 1: a downfield passing attack that they can get into, and

555
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,399
Speaker 1: Army doesn't have that at all, So let me focus

556
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 1: more on this Falcon offense. Sarka is on pace to

557
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,359
Speaker 1: finish with the second most passing yards by a Falcon

558
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:25,440
Speaker 1: starting quarterback in program history, and last week was a

559
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 1: good example of if the running game's working, they'll just

560
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 1: keep going. So they're playing Wyoming. He only throws it

561
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 1: to eight times, they ran the ball for three hundred

562
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 1: and thirty yards on the grounds. He's averaged as a

563
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:38,680
Speaker 1: starter of this year seventeen pass attempts per game, and

564
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:41,440
Speaker 1: Army has no pass rush whatsoever. They're gonna have no

565
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:43,399
Speaker 1: answers to be able to get to him. So if

566
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:45,119
Speaker 1: they do flip it into the pistol or into the

567
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:47,680
Speaker 1: shotgun and let him just work, I'm seeing him going

568
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 1: for over two hundred yards again. And I haven't liked

569
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 1: this Army offense really since Captain America, since Bryce and

570
00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:56,439
Speaker 1: Daily you know, finished his time there. He was one

571
00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 1: of my favorite college ball players of all time, certainly

572
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 1: with the gambling implications as well and how they close

573
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 1: out winning the American Championship in their first year there.

574
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 1: He was phenomenal. He gave them such an ability to

575
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 1: close in the red zone get into the end zone.

576
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 1: They also had a little bit of fight in terms

577
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 1: of their play action game and pushing the ball down

578
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 1: field at times. This Army offense this year without him

579
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,679
Speaker 1: as one setting, it's run, run, run, But they're outside

580
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:24,199
Speaker 1: the top sixty in terms of success rate on the grounds.

581
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 1: They're dead last in big play creation, and that makes

582
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 1: it much more likely for a dreadful Air Force defense

583
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 1: to get off the field. They're at least going to

584
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:35,440
Speaker 1: have opportunities. This Army offense is built to get into

585
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 1: those third and threes, third and fours manageables. If they

586
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 1: don't get it going forward on fourth down, you're giving

587
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 1: an Air Force defense that has given up explosives left

588
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 1: and right this season an opportunity to get turnovers on

589
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 1: downs or an opportunity to kind of flip the field

590
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:50,639
Speaker 1: position if they can get you into a fourth and

591
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 1: five and you don't want to.

592
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 3: Go for it.

593
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:55,720
Speaker 1: So what I look at here is this Air Force

594
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 1: defense that has gotten just a slight tick better as

595
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 1: the season's gone on. They held Navy to thirty four points.

596
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:04,440
Speaker 1: I know that doesn't sound great, but their situational football

597
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,160
Speaker 1: was much better in third down and in the red zone.

598
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 1: So I think all they have to do is hold

599
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 1: Army below thirty one points and their offense is going

600
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:14,399
Speaker 1: to do the rest. Here. You know, air Force can

601
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 1: make a bowl game if they get hot. They have

602
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 1: so much to play for. I think that they are

603
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 1: the class in this game. And like I said, it's

604
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:24,200
Speaker 1: old school mentality in terms of a service academy via

605
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:26,640
Speaker 1: service Academy that all of this will just be three

606
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 1: yards in a cloud of dust, a thirteen kind of

607
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 1: ten kind of football game. That's not the case with

608
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 1: this Air Force team this year. I like their coaching staff,

609
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:35,920
Speaker 1: I like their quarterback. I think they get it done

610
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:37,639
Speaker 1: and score a lot of points. What are we pairing

611
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 1: this up with for a G five money line underdog parlay?

612
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, Coastal Carolina. They're five and a half point dogs

613
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 3: plus one seventy two on the money line. Coastal has

614
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 3: really found something since inserting Samari Collier in at quarterback.

615
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 3: He's thrown the ball well and added a recent running

616
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 3: element that has ignited Coastal Carolinas once pedestrian attack. It

617
00:28:57,120 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 3: was really really rough, but the last couple of weeks

618
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:03,400
Speaker 3: they've really found something here. So now the Shants two

619
00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 3: best offensive performances of the season have come in the

620
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 3: last two weeks, and they now line up against the

621
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 3: Marshall defense that's one oh ninth in defensive success rate,

622
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:16,280
Speaker 3: one twenty third in defensive finishing drives, one twenty fifth

623
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 3: in defensive EPA per play, and now they're on the road.

624
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 3: Marshall did have a couple flashy performances the last couple

625
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 3: of weeks at home. However, they were very very fortunate

626
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 3: to have defeated Texas State and they caught ODU in

627
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 3: a tough spot peeking ahead to the JMU game in

628
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:35,680
Speaker 3: a complete no show by the Monarchs, So a little

629
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 3: bit of jurisdiction there, and how good Marshall actually is

630
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 3: after those couple of performances. For how bad Coastal Carolina

631
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 3: has played this season, they have been decent against the pass,

632
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 3: ranking forty fourth and pass EPA and forty ninth in

633
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:54,720
Speaker 3: pass play success rate. And now Marshall again has to

634
00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:56,480
Speaker 3: go on the road. I think this is a spot

635
00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 3: for Coastal to really step up and jump start the

636
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 3: rest of their season. At home on Thursday night, they're

637
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 3: going to get the crowd into it. They're going to

638
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 3: have a good environment. Coastal can hang in there, and

639
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 3: I give them about a fifty to fifty chance to

640
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 3: win this game on the field. My power ratings have

641
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 3: this lower. I think Coastals live in this one. So

642
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:13,959
Speaker 3: give me the Shots on Thursday night.

643
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 1: Great shout out on Collier. He absolutely makes a difference.

644
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 1: And this is the time of year, whether it's guys

645
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 1: packing it up, trying to save you know, you know,

646
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 1: red shirt and eligibility and not play, or they're injured.

647
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 1: You're seeing it all the way up to programs like

648
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:30,479
Speaker 1: LSU Harold Perkins Junior is like what am I doing here?

649
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 1: It's time to just think about the NFL draft or

650
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:34,960
Speaker 1: the transfer portal, like people are shutting it down or

651
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 1: getting new opportunities. And Collier is a great example. And

652
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 1: offenses and defenses can look, you know, radically different from

653
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 1: September to you know, the end of October and November.

654
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 1: So I think that's a good call out. You put

655
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:48,240
Speaker 1: these two plays together, the Shots and air Force. Even

656
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 1: with air Force basically you know they're going to probably

657
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 1: close as a favorite. It's still going to be north

658
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 1: of four to one. Go over to Draftings get the

659
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:57,920
Speaker 1: parlay started there. All right, that's it for our G

660
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 1: five money line parlay presented by DraftKings. Check out the

661
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 1: Parlay Express account of the free award winning Action Network

662
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 1: app or we'll be posting this parlay. You also find

663
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 1: a bunch of other fun long shot bets and parlays

664
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 1: there as well. You can also find the quick slip

665
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 1: link in the podcast and episode description, or visit Action

666
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 1: network dot com slash bet now to find and tail

667
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 1: some of the plays that you've heard, including our Group

668
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 1: of five moneyline parlay. All right, two minute drill time.

669
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 1: Duck already throughout Wyoming against San Diego State, So I'll

670
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 1: close out in mind quickly. I'm going to go Team

671
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 1: Total over on UNLV. It's sitting at about thirty three

672
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 1: out there in the market. I think you'd be hard

673
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 1: pressed to find a quarterback who has made himself more

674
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 1: money in the past two months in terms of market

675
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 1: value for the upcoming portal than Anthony Calandria. He's at

676
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 1: four games with three touchdowns this year. He's on pace

677
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 1: for twenty eight hundred through the air, seven hundred on

678
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:49,600
Speaker 1: the ground, twenty eight total touchdowns. He's the perfect trigger

679
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 1: man for this offense and the top two offenses that

680
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 1: New Mexico is faced in the Mountain West Conference, San

681
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 1: Jose State and Boise, they dropped thirty five and forty

682
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 1: one on them, respectively. I think this number is sub

683
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 1: thirty five because they're coming off their best game of

684
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 1: the season. Defensively, they really put U Test State in

685
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 1: a box, holding them to fourteen points by playing keep

686
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 1: away though, and this is what's key. They held the

687
00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 1: ball for thirty eight minutes in that game. They're also

688
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 1: two to two and fourth down to continue drives keep

689
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:20,320
Speaker 1: the ball away from the aggies two separate seven minute

690
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 1: drives in that game. This is where the UNLV defense

691
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 1: comes to my rescue in terms of their offense going

692
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 1: over because their defense will not allow you to play

693
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 1: keep away because they play Mattador defense. They're one hundred

694
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:33,080
Speaker 1: and thirty third when it comes to surrendering big plays,

695
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 1: they're one hundred and third and tackling one hundred and

696
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 1: thirty first and success rate allowed on the ground. Penalties

697
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 1: have also been a huge problem for the running reps

698
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 1: of the fourth most penalized team in the sport. So

699
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 1: you're moving the ball down field quickly. They want to

700
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:46,800
Speaker 1: get it back to them. They want to play in shootouts.

701
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 1: They gamble for punchouts and interceptions as well. They're six

702
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,480
Speaker 1: and takeaways with sixteen on the year. So in terms of,

703
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 1: you know, a high scoring game, they give me everything

704
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:57,959
Speaker 1: that I want. They're getting the ball back for their

705
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 1: team and their offense with a quick turnover, or they're

706
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 1: letting somebody get into field goal range or scoring a

707
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 1: touchdown quickly. Whether by the way, always somebody to consider

708
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:09,680
Speaker 1: in the land of enchantment this time of year, late October,

709
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 1: it's gonna be perfect, it's gonna be sixty, it's gonna

710
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:14,240
Speaker 1: be sunny, there's gonna be no wind over on the

711
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 1: team total. I played up to thirty three and a

712
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 1: half and then my last one for the two minute

713
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 1: drill FIU catch in three. If you remove Sam, Houston

714
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 1: State and UTEP, who are total abominations in conference, you wissay,

715
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 1: and you look at the other ten teams in this

716
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 1: league as underdogs in conference play, the dogs are twelve

717
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 1: and four against the spread with eight outright upsets. Midweek

718
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:39,440
Speaker 1: CUSA football has been absolutely nuts, and I like this

719
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:42,080
Speaker 1: matchup for FIU, particularly in the defensive side of things

720
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 1: their thirtieth and coverage thirty seventh in past PPA. They

721
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:48,200
Speaker 1: really struggle to stop the run. So situationally, from a

722
00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 1: week to week basis, you got to watch out who

723
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:52,480
Speaker 1: they're playing. What can Missouri State do? They can throw

724
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 1: the ball and they can't run the ball at all,

725
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:57,920
Speaker 1: so they cannot take advantage of the inherent weaknesses in

726
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 1: this FIU defense. The Bears there one hundred and seventeenth

727
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 1: in success rate on the ground, one hundred and twenty

728
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:05,120
Speaker 1: fifth in line yards, dead last in stuff rate, So

729
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 1: they're just scared flat out to run the football and

730
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 1: they throw it a ton thirty first in pass rate

731
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 1: in the entire country, and they become even more one

732
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 1: dimensional with Jacob Clark back in the starting role. He

733
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:18,040
Speaker 1: just threw it forty four times against New Mexico State,

734
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:20,600
Speaker 1: and he's an absolute statue from the pocket. If you

735
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 1: watch this guy play, he made Drew Bludsoe look like

736
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:26,799
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson, Like it's unbelievable that he just gets back

737
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:29,320
Speaker 1: into his little mini drop back two or three steps

738
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 1: out of the shotgun and just stays right there. It's

739
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 1: why he's taken four point four sacks per game in

740
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:36,719
Speaker 1: games that he started and finished, and the Missouri State

741
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 1: defense can be run on. And that's the formula for FIU,

742
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,520
Speaker 1: not just to cover in this game, but to win outright.

743
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 1: You can be efficient, you can be methodical, you can

744
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:46,919
Speaker 1: move the ball on them. And that's why I'm putting

745
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 1: this bet in the hands of Key John Owens. Last

746
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:52,760
Speaker 1: two games for FIU and Willie Simmons forty two carries

747
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 1: three hundred and sixty one yards on the ground. A

748
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 1: pair of tds feed this kid, control the game, win

749
00:34:58,040 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 1: the game. That's my two minute drill over you duck.

750
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're going all FCS plays, so this will be

751
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:05,920
Speaker 3: based on projections. Thursday night, Norfolk State takes on Delaware

752
00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:08,359
Speaker 3: State and they're playing this game at Lincoln Financial Field

753
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 3: in Philly. Michael Vick and DeShawn Jackson square off with

754
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:14,759
Speaker 3: their teams. Delaware State's going to be run heavy in

755
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:17,239
Speaker 3: this one. They have an efficient ground game, but it's

756
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 3: not super explosive. QB run is going to be featured

757
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:22,319
Speaker 3: quite a bit in Norfolk State has seen their fair

758
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 3: share of run defensively this season, and they will provide

759
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:29,840
Speaker 3: some resistance to Delaware State's ground attack. Norfolk State's offense

760
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:32,840
Speaker 3: has been really pedestrian this season. They've really struggled to

761
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 3: convert in the red zone and on third down. I

762
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:37,719
Speaker 3: don't see Norfolk State having a lot of explosivity in

763
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:39,880
Speaker 3: this one. But the real key here is the weather.

764
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 3: It could be two inches of rain and win gus

765
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:44,759
Speaker 3: up to thirty miles an hour in Philly. Going to

766
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:47,359
Speaker 3: be a sloppy field. Hard for either team to really

767
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:49,880
Speaker 3: find their footing here. I'm going to look under fifty

768
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:52,400
Speaker 3: seven and a half in this one as soon as

769
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:54,799
Speaker 3: I get a nail down on the weather. Alabama State

770
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 3: they're projected laying just three and a half against Prairie

771
00:35:57,680 --> 00:36:00,160
Speaker 3: View A and M just what I believe to be

772
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 3: a head and shoulders better team in the Hornets rather

773
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:07,800
Speaker 3: than Prairiew. A and M and talent quarterback Andrew Body

774
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 3: twenty touchdown passes, just one interception this season, and they

775
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:13,400
Speaker 3: are going to move it here against prairie View. The

776
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:16,439
Speaker 3: strength of schedule has a massive edge to Alabama State.

777
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:19,440
Speaker 3: Prairie View has not seen an offense that will put

778
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:22,359
Speaker 3: the pressure on this defense in the last several weeks.

779
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:26,759
Speaker 3: Their last five opponents for prairie View Naia, Lincoln, California,

780
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:29,120
Speaker 3: which is that fake college team that never plays home games.

781
00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:34,439
Speaker 3: Southern el Corn State, Grambling, and Northwestern State nowhere near

782
00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:37,280
Speaker 3: the level of talent at quarterback, nowhere near the athletes

783
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 3: and the skill positions. This one's projected at just three

784
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 3: and a half. I'm absolutely going to lay it on

785
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:44,440
Speaker 3: the road with the Hornets here. Last one's going to

786
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:46,799
Speaker 3: be Bryant and Monmouth over sixty two and a half.

787
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 3: Last week with Derek Robertson out at quarterback for Monmouth,

788
00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 3: I was concerned about Hampton not being able to score

789
00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 3: on the Hawks, and they couldn't.

790
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 1: Well.

791
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:57,719
Speaker 3: Bryant will be able to score on this defense and

792
00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:00,120
Speaker 3: should throw a couple punches here at home. Again. It's

793
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:03,320
Speaker 3: the conference favorite, but with another week to prep with

794
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 3: backup quarterback Frankie Weaver, he should be a lot more

795
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 3: comfortable in the offense. I would expect that they throw

796
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:11,279
Speaker 3: it a lot around a little bit more. They went

797
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:14,399
Speaker 3: run heavy last week with him in his first start,

798
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 3: but I expect them to throw the ball a little

799
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 3: bit more and they should shred this Bryant defense. I

800
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:22,040
Speaker 3: would expect seven or eight yards per play on average

801
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:23,799
Speaker 3: for the Hawks. And for them to score forty two,

802
00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:26,400
Speaker 3: Bryant should be in the twenty four to twenty eight range.

803
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 3: So anything sixty two and a half were close, we're

804
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:30,799
Speaker 3: going to be looking over there all right.

805
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 1: Time to close things out with our tug of war,

806
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:36,360
Speaker 1: Got shit, boy, tug hard harder, Doc. I am on

807
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:39,480
Speaker 1: your five yard line here, and just to be fair,

808
00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:42,520
Speaker 1: because you've given me some picks where I get to

809
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:44,880
Speaker 1: pick the game and you're like, I'll defend whatever side

810
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 1: because sometimes it can be difficult to find, you know,

811
00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:50,160
Speaker 1: a game that we're clearly on opposite sides of. I'm

812
00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:52,400
Speaker 1: going to return the favor to you, and then you

813
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:56,239
Speaker 1: throw Diego Pavia in my face. My sweet Diego, I

814
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 1: have to fade him to be able to win this

815
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 1: seasonal Tug of War against you, but I'm gonna do it.

816
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 1: I'm going to take Texas in this one. I put

817
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 1: already put in the action app. By the way, a

818
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:09,479
Speaker 1: parlay north of three to one with Bandy and under.

819
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:12,279
Speaker 1: I still like the under either way. I went through

820
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:14,280
Speaker 1: the research. I feel like I can make my argument,

821
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:17,160
Speaker 1: but you get to start first. Why is Diego the

822
00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:20,840
Speaker 1: man to get this road victory in the sec for you, well, we.

823
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 3: Are looking at possibly Vandy's toughest test of the season

824
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:26,279
Speaker 3: on the road against an elite level Texas defense, and

825
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:29,720
Speaker 3: Vandy has done nothing other than rise to the challenge

826
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 3: in every other situation this year and really should be

827
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:35,520
Speaker 3: considered at large for the College Football Playoff. If you

828
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:37,839
Speaker 3: look at Texas, they do great out well in nearly

829
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 3: every defensive metric. The one chink in the armor for

830
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:44,800
Speaker 3: Texas's early down success where Vandy thrives first and second

831
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:47,839
Speaker 3: down running successful plays to put this team in third

832
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:50,800
Speaker 3: and short, where they're converting fifty three percent this season

833
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 3: on third down. And because of the early down success,

834
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 3: they've had creativity in the playbook for Vanderbilt, They've been

835
00:38:57,680 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 3: able to do some things and have some unique calls

836
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 3: because they have had such tremendous early down success. I

837
00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:08,760
Speaker 3: think that Vanderbilt will have sharp success here in early downs.

838
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:11,080
Speaker 3: I think they'll be able to get some of their

839
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:14,360
Speaker 3: playmakers involved in the passing game. I totally look for

840
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 3: Vanderbilt to have more success offensively than what you would expect.

841
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 3: Texas's offense came to life a little bit last week,

842
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:22,600
Speaker 3: but look at where this team was at in the

843
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 3: middle of the third quarter, down by three scores, drawing dead.

844
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 3: It took a special team's touchdown in some late magic

845
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:31,239
Speaker 3: to kind of get back into that one. If not,

846
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:35,279
Speaker 3: what's the narrative here? Vandy has stepped up defensively. The

847
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 3: Doors grade out thirteenth in defensive havoc and thirty fourth

848
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:42,719
Speaker 3: and explosiveness, two areas where Texas struggles offensively. Texas has

849
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 3: given up eighteen sacks fifty three tackles for loss, and

850
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:48,959
Speaker 3: they grade out one hundred and eighteenth in offensive explosiveness,

851
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 3: one twentieth and EPA for play. I think it's another

852
00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 3: low scoring grinder, and I give Vandy a serious chance

853
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 3: to win. I like Pavia on the farewell to matter.

854
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:02,279
Speaker 1: Oh all right, you made a little bit of my

855
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:05,320
Speaker 1: case for me. Addition by subtraction with arch and the

856
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:09,760
Speaker 1: concussion protocol. Bringing in Matthew Caldwell, who can run this offense.

857
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:12,719
Speaker 1: It's why he came off the bench, and they immediately

858
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:15,120
Speaker 1: gave him an opportunity to win the game. He comes in,

859
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:18,359
Speaker 1: he throws that game winning touchdown pass against Mississippi State

860
00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:21,239
Speaker 1: in Starkville. The atmosphere there, I think that shows what

861
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:23,839
Speaker 1: sark in this offensive stack that staff thinks of him,

862
00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:26,160
Speaker 1: and he's had lots of reps in his career. Gardner

863
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:29,160
Speaker 1: Webb Troy. He's a big kid. He has mobility, he

864
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:31,239
Speaker 1: can make all the throws. You've seen him be able

865
00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:33,240
Speaker 1: to pull it in the run game already this season

866
00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:35,560
Speaker 1: and get some big plays on the ground with his legs.

867
00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:38,160
Speaker 1: It's the reason why he kept not one but two

868
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 1: four star freshmen below him on the depth chart. Now,

869
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:44,399
Speaker 1: I understand it's limited sample size, but I think that's

870
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:47,279
Speaker 1: why there's value in Texas at home here and why

871
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 1: the market is aligned in the way that it is,

872
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 1: and it's closer to kind of a coin flip game.

873
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 1: The other piece of this is the Sark rumor. I

874
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 1: think this could actually kind of galvanize the team. Usually

875
00:40:57,520 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 1: their coaches come out in like three separate ways. They

876
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:02,239
Speaker 1: deny that they're looking at another job, in this case

877
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:05,840
Speaker 1: the Tennessee Titans. For Sark, they say nothing, or you

878
00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:07,239
Speaker 1: can go in front of the media and do what

879
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:09,319
Speaker 1: he did, which is say that he's pissed off, it's

880
00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 1: not true, he's angry, and use it to fire up

881
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 1: his team whether it's true or not. By the way,

882
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:17,600
Speaker 1: like Texas Twitter is just like, oh, that ESPN reporter,

883
00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:19,719
Speaker 1: the athletic who ever said it, she made it up.

884
00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:22,080
Speaker 1: It's like, I mean, that's where we are as a society.

885
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:23,719
Speaker 1: If you hear anything that you don't like, it's just

886
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 1: fake news. It's all made up. You know, like coaches.

887
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:30,799
Speaker 1: The amount of coaches who basically say that they're going

888
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:32,960
Speaker 1: to do something like Lane Kiffin said, oh, I'm going

889
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:35,279
Speaker 1: to take the USC job and they almost murdered him

890
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 1: in Knoxville, Tennessee. Really since that moment, coaches just lie

891
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,360
Speaker 1: through their teeth. Like even Nick Saban said it like

892
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:43,719
Speaker 1: I Am not taking the Alabama job, and then forty

893
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:45,839
Speaker 1: eight hours later he's on a plane to Tuscaloosa taking

894
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:49,239
Speaker 1: the Alabama job. In the current atmosphere, you have to

895
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:52,279
Speaker 1: lie if this is true. He has to lie because

896
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:54,320
Speaker 1: he has to keep everything going in terms of his

897
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 1: locker room, you know, the recruiting trail, the transferportal, everything.

898
00:41:57,840 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 1: But I like what Sark did. I think he had

899
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 1: some like to them. Whether it's true or not, this

900
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:04,320
Speaker 1: is a Texas team that still has so much to

901
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:06,399
Speaker 1: play for because when you look at it, they've lost

902
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:09,399
Speaker 1: two one possession games this season. But if they win here.

903
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:12,800
Speaker 1: They're going to wake up on Saturday morning, November fifteenth

904
00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:16,520
Speaker 1: against this Georgia football team, They're likely Texas will be

905
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 1: what tenth in the country at that point. That'll be

906
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:21,239
Speaker 1: their super Bowl, the team that's been the boogeyman for

907
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:23,279
Speaker 1: them ever since they come into the SEC. So the

908
00:42:23,360 --> 00:42:25,719
Speaker 1: season's far from over from them. They can still work

909
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:27,800
Speaker 1: their way into the College of Ball Playoff with a

910
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:30,080
Speaker 1: win here and the last piece of it in terms

911
00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:32,399
Speaker 1: of the game. Within the game, Texas's pass rush tenth

912
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 1: in the country, bandy pass blocking one hundred and nineteenth.

913
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:38,960
Speaker 1: If the game script goes Texas way and Pavia cannot

914
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:42,600
Speaker 1: use all the run game and all the motion and

915
00:42:42,719 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 1: all the eye candy to force them to defend fifty

916
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 1: three yards, if they just know that he has to

917
00:42:47,719 --> 00:42:49,560
Speaker 1: throw the ball and they can pin their ears back,

918
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:51,800
Speaker 1: I think this could be a really good spot for Texas.

919
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:54,400
Speaker 1: So I've talked myself into it. We'll see if I

920
00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 1: can get into your end zone and close this out,

921
00:42:56,880 --> 00:42:59,040
Speaker 1: or if we extend it by at least another week.

922
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:00,759
Speaker 1: They'll do it for today episode of the Group of

923
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 1: Five Deep Dive under the Big Bets on Campus Banner,

924
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:05,720
Speaker 1: presented by DraftKings. Thank you so much for tuning in listening.

925
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:08,040
Speaker 1: Don't forget to download the free award winning Action Network

926
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:09,880
Speaker 1: app and leave us a five star reading and review

927
00:43:10,080 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 1: wherever you listen to the pod. Also a reminder, if

928
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:14,560
Speaker 1: you go over on X and tag playbook, you're going

929
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 1: to be able to put together plays right from the

930
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:20,400
Speaker 1: Action Network app. You can screenshot it. Throw that screenshot

931
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:23,640
Speaker 1: in at playbook say build me a custom parlay. And

932
00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 1: what's great about that is it comparison shops for you.

933
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:28,160
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934
00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 1: If you haven't already, please subscribe to our YouTube channel

935
00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:34,360
Speaker 1: like subscribe, comment. All those things help to build the

936
00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 1: visibility for our brand. Thank you so much for listening

937
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:39,360
Speaker 1: to the Big Bets on Campus podcasts and as always,

938
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 1: best to block with all your bets. Action Network reminds

939
00:43:59,520 --> 00:44:03,359
Speaker 1: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care

940
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:06,520
Speaker 1: about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four

941
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 1: seven at one eight hundred Gambler