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Speaker 1: Runch you by Bank of America Mary Lynch with virtual reality,

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Speaker 1: virtually everything will change. Discover opportunities in a transforming world

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Speaker 1: VI of a mL dot Com slash VR, Mary Lynch,

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Speaker 1: Pierced Fenner and Smith Incorporated. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you

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Speaker 1: insight from the best of economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 1: and of course, on the Bloomberg Now. The Polish lotty

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Speaker 1: weakened after the EU launched infringement proceedings against the nation.

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Speaker 1: The move comes in response to the introduction of controversial

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Speaker 1: legislation which spake anti government protest. This hour, the European

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Speaker 1: Commission said Poland has a one month deadline to address

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Speaker 1: the EU's concerns. Earlier, we spoke to Poland's deputy Prime minister.

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Speaker 1: He says and over vote of the president's vote is

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Speaker 1: not possible. President Andrew da Vito to this, and he

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Speaker 1: now said that he would present the new legislation and

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Speaker 1: over Vito over vote his Vito is not possible in

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Speaker 1: this parliament because it requires three fe of majority, So

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Speaker 1: the previous legislation is kind of closed and now the

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Speaker 1: turn is the move will be made by by the President.

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Speaker 1: Ian Bremo, Eurasia Group President and Michael Dada MK and

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Speaker 1: Partner's chief economists are with us. Ian. Let me come

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Speaker 1: to you first. I've got the euro against the Lotti

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Speaker 1: here and really we're actually pretty much flat on the day,

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Speaker 1: which suggests to me that FX market perhaps don't see

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Speaker 1: too much impact of what we've just heard in the

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Speaker 1: short term. But what are the owner term implications of

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Speaker 1: this tension between the EU and Poland. Poland along with

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Speaker 1: Hungary and really in some ways the entire visigrad for

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Speaker 1: in East Europe um are not adhering to rule of law. Uh.

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Speaker 1: They are increasingly soft authoritarian states. And it's a good

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Speaker 1: thing that the Polish president backed off what would have

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Speaker 1: been effectively undermining the independence of the entire Polish judiciary.

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Speaker 1: You'll remember that Trump they had fifteen thousand Poles bust

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Speaker 1: in to cheer him during his last trip to Europe

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Speaker 1: where he started off with Warsaw. But they didn't have

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Speaker 1: to bust in any of the hundreds of thousands that

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Speaker 1: were demonstrating against this move by the Polish government to

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Speaker 1: make the country authoritarian right in the middle of Europe.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, got to give the Trump administration

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Speaker 1: credit on this. Tillerson's State Department actually came out with

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Speaker 1: a strongly worded memo UH telling the Polish government that

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Speaker 1: the U s would not find it acceptable if they

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Speaker 1: proceeded with this. So it's not as if Trump is

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Speaker 1: just embracing authoritarianism everywhere. I think President Duta recognized um

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Speaker 1: that he was going to be in rather deep um

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Speaker 1: if he pushed this hard, this quickly, and ultimately the

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Speaker 1: EU is gonna squeeze them too. But none of this

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Speaker 1: is going to change the fundamental direction in Poland, which

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Speaker 1: is against being well integrated in the EU. Okay, so

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Speaker 1: does it in any way then change the fundamental sort

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Speaker 1: of dynamics between Russia and the EU. Russia's interests in

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Speaker 1: the EU and more broadly is divide and conquer. They

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Speaker 1: want a weaker transatlantic relationship, which they are succeeding in

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Speaker 1: helping to facilitate. They want more divisions inside Europe with

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Speaker 1: you know, countries that can decide themselves how to work

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Speaker 1: with the Russians, which is why even the Germans opposed

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Speaker 1: that US sank against the Russians that was just passed

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Speaker 1: by the House yesterday, because German industry wants to do

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Speaker 1: North Stream pipeline and other business with the Russians, and

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Speaker 1: they also want more divisions inside the United States. If

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Speaker 1: you're a country like Russia whose economy total economy is

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Speaker 1: smaller than that of New York City, you're not winning

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Speaker 1: by having a well run global economy and global integration.

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Speaker 1: You win by having a backyard that no one else

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Speaker 1: can play, and that means you want weaker divisions all

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Speaker 1: around it. That's what Russia wants to see. And certainly

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Speaker 1: the fact that many countries in Europe, including candidate member

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Speaker 1: that will never become a member, Turkey with URDA one

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Speaker 1: and Putin being much more aligned than the Turks ever

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Speaker 1: were with the Europeans, those things all read down to

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Speaker 1: Russia's interest, Michael, right now, this is really important. This

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Speaker 1: has been out recently with Samuel Huntington as a comparing

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Speaker 1: contrast theoretically to what the president is doing. What are

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump's flash of the civilizations, particularly as you look

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Speaker 1: at the European model out of World War Two? Well,

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Speaker 1: his speech in Warsaw. Was that agreed strongly by Germany,

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Speaker 1: strongly agreed in the Germans dislike? That's the right question,

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Speaker 1: because the Germans are the single American ally that have

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Speaker 1: the biggest problem with America throwing away support for liberal democracy.

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Speaker 1: Democracy was not in that speech. Instead, you heard him

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Speaker 1: talk about religion, You heard him talk about family, you

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Speaker 1: heard him talk about nation. In other words, all of

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Speaker 1: the things that bind together the Judeo Christian nations that

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Speaker 1: have nothing to do with liberal democracy. But Dr Bremer,

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Speaker 1: we have gone from a Harvard theorist Samuel Huntington's to say,

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Speaker 1: for read Cigaria's post American world to your g zero

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Speaker 1: world of notoriety. Can Donald Trump pull forward international relations

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Speaker 1: of Samuel Huntington's from forty and fifty years ago? Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump can align himself and parts of the United States

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Speaker 1: with others that support a regression to that kind of nationalism.

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Speaker 1: And one of the reasons he can do it is

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Speaker 1: because the world is heading in that direction anyway. China

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Speaker 1: clearly shows that right. So, but that's that's not going

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Speaker 1: to change the world order in America's favor. It's going

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Speaker 1: to instead create much more division. But this is so important.

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Speaker 1: Why it's a joy to have Dartin Bremer together. Michael Darda,

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Speaker 1: Can he do his theory he's talking about given the

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Speaker 1: tepid nominal GDP, the type animal spirit that Akerlufen Schiller

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Speaker 1: have written about, it ain't there. Isn't No, it's not there.

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Speaker 1: And frankly, if we're going to move towards more um

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Speaker 1: populist and protectionist policies on a global basis, it's probably

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Speaker 1: not coming back, or at least, you know, these fundamental

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Speaker 1: forces that are headwinds with regard to demographics probably end

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Speaker 1: up exacerbated by weakness and productivity with further headwinds if

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Speaker 1: we're you know, moving in in that direction. So I

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Speaker 1: think they fit together, Michael. Political risk was really the

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Speaker 1: name of the game when you were looking at Europe

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Speaker 1: in the first three or four months of the year.

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Speaker 1: When you look at European fundamentals, how much does political

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Speaker 1: risk factor into this for you? Towards the rest of

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Speaker 1: it's certainly a piece of the puzzle. But at least

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Speaker 1: as it regards the Eurozone, things do seem to be

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Speaker 1: going along pretty well. If you look at business confidence surveys,

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Speaker 1: pretty much on cycle highs the manufacturing p M eyes

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Speaker 1: pretty close to cycle highs GDP growth, although it's slow,

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Speaker 1: is growing fast enough to pull unemployment down. So you know,

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Speaker 1: I would have to say that that drug is succeeding,

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Speaker 1: the medicine is working, and the patient is reviving. The

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Speaker 1: patient is reviving. Can you say euros sclerosis is over?

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Speaker 1: Can you say it's a new research Europe? I camp

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Speaker 1: I don't buy that. Oh that's a different that's a

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Speaker 1: different question. Yeah, but let me asking you a different question. Well, look,

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Speaker 1: I see that President Macran's popularity has taken a nearly

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Speaker 1: Why did that happen? Well, I mean, why did the

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Speaker 1: French election happen? People forget that he was this close

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Speaker 1: to not being in the final round and instead it

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Speaker 1: was going to be melanch On on the far left

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Speaker 1: and the pen on the far right, that we'd be

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Speaker 1: having no no one would be asking whether or not

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Speaker 1: the euro was coming together if that with a situation.

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Speaker 1: But because we got through it, now Macron, everyone says, oh,

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Speaker 1: now France is the new model. The structural problems in France,

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Speaker 1: the malaise among the French is getting worse. You're saying,

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Speaker 1: even getting with Michael Darry, you wrote about this with

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Speaker 1: Judewinski a million years ago. Are we out of eurosclerosis

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Speaker 1: in America? Or are we out of eurosclerosis in Europe?

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Speaker 1: That's the theme. I don't buy it. No, I think

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Speaker 1: the answers no. I mean what I was talking about,

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Speaker 1: you know, with the business cycle dynamics, you know, is

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Speaker 1: essentially they're they're coming out of unfortunate double dip, you know,

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Speaker 1: two year recession, so they're growing faster than potential. You're

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Speaker 1: focused on potential growth, which is quite slow due to

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Speaker 1: headwinds from very weak labor force growth you know, weaker

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Speaker 1: in Europe and certainly um Japan and in the US,

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Speaker 1: and weak productivity. I mean that all ley besides and

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Speaker 1: determines how fast you can grow over the long run.

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Speaker 1: If you're coming out of a ditch, you know you

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Speaker 1: can and you should grow faster than the growth or

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Speaker 1: the potential. But over the long term, once you know

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Speaker 1: the business cycle is healed and fully recovered, potential growth

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Speaker 1: uh drives everything, and that's quite weak in Europe and

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Speaker 1: in the US. Runch you by Bank of America Mary Lynch.

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Speaker 1: With virtual reality, virtually everything will change. Discover opportunities in

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Speaker 1: a transforming world be of a mL dot Com slash vr,

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Speaker 1: Mary Lynch, Pierced Fenner, and Smith Incorporated. Good morning everyone,

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Speaker 1: David gur and Tom Keene in New York City joining

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Speaker 1: us now from Washington, d C. And the distance from

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Speaker 1: John C. Calhoun, South Carolina to Jim de Minsk, South

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Speaker 1: Carolina is maybe not all that far. The Senator from

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Speaker 1: South Carolina, Jim Demant, Jim, you're much in the news.

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Speaker 1: David Guru has got smarter political questions than I do.

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna start with a simple observation. Is Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump a conservative? I don't know if he's a philosophical conservative.

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Speaker 1: He's a pragmatic businessman, but his instincts move in the

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Speaker 1: conservative direction of limited government and free people, free markets.

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Speaker 1: So he's certainly been easy to work with. And as

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Speaker 1: far as the policies that he's followed in his administration

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Speaker 1: so far, they've looked pretty good to conservatives. The Senator

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Speaker 1: from Alabama wouldn't agree with you. It has not been

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Speaker 1: easy to work with. From Mr Sessions. Can Mr Sessions

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Speaker 1: survive the weekend? The week or can he even survive Wednesday?

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Speaker 1: I sure hope. So there's no more honorable man than

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Speaker 1: Jeff Sessions, and I know he would make the whole

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Speaker 1: country proud if he continues as Attorney General. I understand

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Speaker 1: the President's frustration. The recusal put the UH the presidents

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Speaker 1: of fate in the hands of an assistant that Jeff

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Speaker 1: Sessions had nothing to do with, but appointed a special

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Speaker 1: prosecutor who is now on a witch hunt with a

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Speaker 1: lot of Democrats support. UH. This is hard for the president,

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Speaker 1: but getting rid of Sessions is not going to solve

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Speaker 1: the problem. I think it will make it much worse.

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Speaker 1: So I hope Jeff Sessions and UH the President Trump

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Speaker 1: can get together and talk this through and and restore

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Speaker 1: that relationship, because there's no better friend to have in

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Speaker 1: Washington than Jeff Sessions. Senator meant you've seen the fishers,

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Speaker 1: the fractures in the Republican Party. They're these splinter groups

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Speaker 1: now in the House of Representatives in particular. Of course,

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Speaker 1: you went from the Senate to the Heritage found Institute,

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Speaker 1: the Heritage Foundation, then you are now are starting the

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Speaker 1: Conservative Partnership Institute in Washington, d C. Conservatives and clearly

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Speaker 1: very important to you. How at home do you feel

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Speaker 1: in the Republican Party today? Do you see a Republican

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Speaker 1: party that can coalesce all these different groups. Well, Republicans

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Speaker 1: are independent by nature. There's always been kind of the

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Speaker 1: moderate Rockefellow wing and the conservative wing. What we're doing

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Speaker 1: with the Conservative Partnership Institute is to pull conservatives together,

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Speaker 1: to pull their staff together, to train them to develop

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Speaker 1: consensus among members so that they can leverage their collective clout.

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Speaker 1: Right now, Conservatives are independent enough that they might have

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Speaker 1: ten different positions on an issue, and that doesn't help

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Speaker 1: them get anything done, and it makes it hard for

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Speaker 1: leadership to work with them. So that's what we're going

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Speaker 1: to be doing at the Conservative Partnership Institute, and that's

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Speaker 1: Conservative Partnership dot org for anyone who wants to follow

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Speaker 1: what we're doing. But I think Republicans uh campaign as conservative,

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Speaker 1: the campaign to repeal Obamacare. They need to start keeping

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Speaker 1: their promises, you know. I But there are a number

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Speaker 1: of Civics teachers who were scratching their heads last night

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Speaker 1: wondering how they could explain to their classes of what

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Speaker 1: happened yesterday in the US. Said, what do you make

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Speaker 1: of the way all of this was was engineered on

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Speaker 1: the Senate floor yesterday afternoon? Well, it was simply a

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Speaker 1: motion to proceed to the debate on a healthcare bill.

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Speaker 1: And the problem is is that all of us is

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Speaker 1: conservd is know that if it it's not planned in advance, uh,

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Speaker 1: particularly under the reconciliation process, that the debate and amendment

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Speaker 1: process is a real free for all where things can

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Speaker 1: go terribly wrong. So I'm not sure what's gonna happen.

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Speaker 1: But and Republicans are in a position where they lose

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Speaker 1: if they do nothing, and they're probably gonna lose if

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Speaker 1: they do something. But we cannot let Obamacare stand as

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Speaker 1: it is. It's hurting millions of Americans and it's going

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Speaker 1: to destroy the American health care system. So Republicans have

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Speaker 1: got to try, even if they don't have the votes

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Speaker 1: on total repeal. You know, Senator, and I will always

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Speaker 1: call you Senator because of Mr Calhoun, you are fifty

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Speaker 1: five miles from Abville. I want you to explain to

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Speaker 1: the conservatives, the Tea party types that have diagonal Jim

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Speaker 1: de Mint supporters. I want you to explain to them

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Speaker 1: how they do business with moderate Republicans and conservative Scoop

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Speaker 1: Jackson Democrats that is not getting done in America. How

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Speaker 1: did the John C. Calhoun's in Jim, demins do business

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Speaker 1: whether different political worlds, and a lot of states are

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Speaker 1: are now moving in a more conservative direction, and you

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Speaker 1: have more moderate Democrats at the state level who are

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Speaker 1: working with Republicans because there's not such a strong government

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Speaker 1: union presence out across America. But in Washington, the controlling

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Speaker 1: force for the Democrats are the government unions. They're pushing

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Speaker 1: the Democrats in a in a direction of more government,

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Speaker 1: and so the polarization in Washington is much different than

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Speaker 1: the rest of the King said, I know David's got

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Speaker 1: eight questions as well. I'm gonna be very quick here.

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Speaker 1: Can the Democrats move right? Is there any can Nancy

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Speaker 1: Pelosi find a Democratic party that can win Wisconsin and Michigan.

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Speaker 1: It's Republicans are gonna have to beat themselves because of

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Speaker 1: the platform that the Democrats run on. In the evidence

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Speaker 1: of their particularly their economic policies, the last ten years

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Speaker 1: have demonstrated that it is bad. It hurts people, it

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Speaker 1: hurts the economy, it hurts everybody they claim to help,

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Speaker 1: and so Republicans need to make their message clearer. Their

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Speaker 1: policies work, but their message has not made it clear

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Speaker 1: to all Americans. That their lives will be better with

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Speaker 1: the Republican leadership. Last question here, returning to what Tom

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Speaker 1: asked you at the beginning of the interview. Here, you've

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Speaker 1: got a president who is not an ideological conservative, as

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Speaker 1: you say, how difficult does that make it for somebody

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Speaker 1: like you, for your colleagues who are still in the

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Speaker 1: Senate who are conservatives, not having a president who really

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Speaker 1: takes up that mental I don't think it's a problem,

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Speaker 1: and that the president is looking for solutions. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he he wants the shortest distance between where we are

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Speaker 1: and where we need to go, and he's committed to

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Speaker 1: keeping his promises. We just have to convince him that

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Speaker 1: our conservative policies ideas are going to work best for America.

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Speaker 1: So we've got a fair chance with this president to

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Speaker 1: make our case. And that's not a bad situation to

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Speaker 1: be in. And uh, in politics, that's about as good

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Speaker 1: as it gets. And think very much appreciate the time

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Speaker 1: today that Senator Jim tom In, former senator from the

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Speaker 1: state of South Carolina, formerly of the Heritage Foundation, now

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Speaker 1: starting a Conservative Partnership Institute in Washington see focused on

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Speaker 1: the presence of conservatives in Washington. Great to speak with

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Speaker 1: him here on bloombergs Valance. I liked that idea David

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Speaker 1: Republicans will have to beat themselves that is fraught with

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Speaker 1: further conversation. Seth Carpenter at UBS it joins us year

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Speaker 1: Um ahead of the economics research as well. Seth Um

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Speaker 1: your note with Sam Coffin and Robert sucking Um. There's

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Speaker 1: a there's a real consensus theme about what we're gonna

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Speaker 1: see in this FED meeting. You you have the good

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Speaker 1: fortune of going into past statements and getting out the

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Speaker 1: Seth Carpenter red highlighter and moving words around. Which word

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Speaker 1: will you look for when they released the August statement

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Speaker 1: this July, so, I think what's going to be most

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Speaker 1: telling is how they characterize in inflation. That's clearly been

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Speaker 1: at the center of their debate. In terms of the

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Speaker 1: timing of the next rate hike, there's an off chance,

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Speaker 1: not at all our modal forecast, but an off chance

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Speaker 1: that they may say something about the timing of the balance.

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Speaker 1: She runoff because Janet Ewen has said that could happen

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Speaker 1: relatively soon. Leo Brainerd said that uh normalization of the

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Speaker 1: funds rate is quote well underway, and that's been their

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Speaker 1: trigger word, but inflation should be first and foremost. You

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Speaker 1: dip down at the bottom. I believe you've underlined out

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Speaker 1: the dissenters. Is everybody on the same page? Good question? Everybody?

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Speaker 1: You mean within the Yeah, they are we going to

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Speaker 1: see any dissenters today in the voting. So I suspect

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Speaker 1: we're not going to see dissents, But that's not the

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Speaker 1: same thing as that everyone is in agreement. I think

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Speaker 1: what was very interesting from my perspective, and this is

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Speaker 1: how we wrote this up in our UBS reports on

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Speaker 1: the MC in June, Cherry yelling at the press conference

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Speaker 1: how it extraordinarily confident about the outlook for inflation. And

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Speaker 1: I was actually quite struck listening to her. So our

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Speaker 1: report that day said, it's surprising how confident she is.

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Speaker 1: Will be interesting to see in the minutes whether that

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Speaker 1: confidence is shared. And sure enough we got the minutes

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Speaker 1: from the June meeting and there was a much much

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Speaker 1: more diversity of you about the confidence for inflation. And

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Speaker 1: I think that that diversity of us is continuing, the

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Speaker 1: diversity those vis continue looking at the confidence in your report.

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Speaker 1: You're confident here, and how the committee is going to

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Speaker 1: write about or talk about the labor side of things.

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Speaker 1: When it comes to inflation, what do you think the

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Speaker 1: consensus is going to be in that statement this afternoon.

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Speaker 1: So the FED, when one needs to keep in mind,

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Speaker 1: at the center of the MC, so cherry yelling and

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Speaker 1: in the core of the MC are still very much

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Speaker 1: Phillips curve minded economists. That's their framework for thinking about inflation.

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Speaker 1: And so when they are thinking about inflation, they're looking

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Speaker 1: at how tight the labor market is now and how

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Speaker 1: tight it's going to be in coming months, and that's

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Speaker 1: going to drive their modal forecast for inflation. Clearly there's

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Speaker 1: variation month to month, and I think it's how much

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Speaker 1: signal one takes from the high frequency variation versus how

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Speaker 1: confident one is in the model that drives the diversity

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Speaker 1: of views within the influency. When you look at the

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Speaker 1: timeline for hiking here, how much of that is tied

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Speaker 1: to the inflation data, to inflation expectations, how much of

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Speaker 1: it is just the fit now that it's starting wanting

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Speaker 1: to proceed to pace. Yeah, so that's the that's a

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Speaker 1: great question. I think, uh, it is. The timing of

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Speaker 1: more hikes depends a lot on how the data turn

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Speaker 1: out how inflation turns out. Cher Yellen was in fact

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Speaker 1: explicit at her congressional testimony that the timing of subsequent

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Speaker 1: rate hikes would very much depend on the outlook for inflation. Uh.

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Speaker 1: I thought it was interesting when she made that comment, though,

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Speaker 1: that she left out the decisions about the balance sheet.

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Speaker 1: So it seems as if the decisions about the balance

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Speaker 1: sheets are pretty much decided, they just have to work

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Speaker 1: out specifically when, But the timing of the rate hikes

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Speaker 1: absolutely depends on on inflation. You have a spectacular UBS

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Speaker 1: page analysis on productivity. I want to come back and

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Speaker 1: talk about this in the next session, but uh, Seth

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Speaker 1: Carpenter quickly here, what did UBS learn when you dove

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Speaker 1: into the details of our lack of productivity? Yeah, so

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Speaker 1: productivity is clearly one of the big topics in macroeconomics now,

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Speaker 1: and we had UBS realized that we needed to make

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Speaker 1: sure we started jumping into the conversation. I think the

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Speaker 1: main thing to take away is that the current decade

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Speaker 1: is the slowest decade for growth and productivity that we've

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Speaker 1: seen since the Second World War, and the biggest, biggest

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Speaker 1: contributor to that slow down. The thing that's missing in

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Speaker 1: this decade is what we call capital intensity intensity, So

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Speaker 1: how much and what the quality of capital is being

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Speaker 1: used in production. I've been doing a lot folks on

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Speaker 1: labor share, the quality of the the efficiency of labor,

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Speaker 1: the size of labor, if you will, within the American economy.

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Speaker 1: It's jaw dropping chart. It maybe my chart of the year,

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Speaker 1: but this will be special. We'll come back with Seth

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Speaker 1: Carpenter and dive into the stuff out there, the capital

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Speaker 1: out there, uh, that that is in America and really

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Speaker 1: has not been part of our investment scheme in this

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Speaker 1: financial crisis. Where joined right now by Seth Carpenter is

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Speaker 1: the chief US economist at UPS. Is on our phone lines,

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Speaker 1: Seth phenomenal work on productivity, our bulldozers. Capital stock. What

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Speaker 1: is capital stock? Yeah, I know this is at time

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Speaker 1: you sort of have to combine philosophy with economics. But

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Speaker 1: capital stock, you should really think of it as the

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Speaker 1: physical uh, equipment plan equipment in general, that that the

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Speaker 1: economy uses to to produce things. But there's also investment

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Speaker 1: in intellectual property. And so that's part of what is

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Speaker 1: making the ongoing puzzle that much or challenging is the

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Speaker 1: evolution of the u S economy going more towards the

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Speaker 1: service sector, less manufacturing, when it was just the manufacturing

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Speaker 1: industrial economy. Much easier concept to wrap your head around,

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Speaker 1: much easier to measure. And so I think economists are

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Speaker 1: going to be struggling for a while now with with

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Speaker 1: all of these measurement issues, all these measurement issues. How

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Speaker 1: how much better is that the FED getting it measuring

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Speaker 1: these things? Has been this ongoing conversation about the fedsibility

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Speaker 1: capacity to to forecast. Has that criticism been meant by

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Speaker 1: any changes in how the FED goes about forecasting. I

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Speaker 1: mean one thing I'll say, and and perhaps I'm biased

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Speaker 1: because I sort of grew up intellectually at the at

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Speaker 1: the FED I was. I was economists for fifteen years. Uh,

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Speaker 1: but yeah, I appreciate that. Uh. You know, the FED

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Speaker 1: has a great staff. They take their jobs extraordinarily seriously.

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Speaker 1: They are deep, deep, deep into all of the data.

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Speaker 1: They have frequent conversations with everyone who's a data provider.

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Speaker 1: So if you think about the b E A or

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Speaker 1: the BLUH, so the FED, the FED team does about

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Speaker 1: as good a job as one can imagine being able

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Speaker 1: to do with the data that are okay, do they

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Speaker 1: measure technology. One of the things that we talk about,

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Speaker 1: folks on the mic, off the mic, is in fifteen

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Speaker 1: or twenty years South Carpenter, are we going to need

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Speaker 1: to completely reframe the impact of technology? And Janet Yellin's America.

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Speaker 1: So my guess is fifteen years from now we absolutely

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Speaker 1: will have a fairly different perspective on what's going on.

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Speaker 1: We just can't see exactly what it is right now.

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Speaker 1: But there's a there's a tricky, tricky aspect to thinking

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Speaker 1: about technology and productivity and how it affects the economy.

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Speaker 1: So in the long run, which Kane famously said, in

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Speaker 1: the long run, we're all dead. But in the long run,

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Speaker 1: higher productivity, more technology per worker should lead to higher

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Speaker 1: interest rates, which is clearly not what we're seeing now.

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Speaker 1: But if at some point in time you get this

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Speaker 1: increase in productivity so the economy can produce so much

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Speaker 1: more with a given amount of of inputs, with a

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Speaker 1: given amount of labor, that just means there's doward pressure

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Speaker 1: on inflation, and so the central bank would, in order

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Speaker 1: to make sure you stay at full employment, keep interest

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Speaker 1: right low for longer. So the trickiest thing for economists

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Speaker 1: to ever explain is the difference between the short run

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Speaker 1: and the long run and when you start talking about

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Speaker 1: technology and what it does to the economy, that that

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Speaker 1: that tension comes big time. Job Today we often have

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Speaker 1: the pleasure of talking with with Alan Krueger, Princeton University

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Speaker 1: Morning Professor Krueger. If you're you're listening, let me ask

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Speaker 1: you if I could hear if we're getting any better

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Speaker 1: at measuring part time work in this country. That's something

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Speaker 1: Dr Krueger carries an awful lot about has been working

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Speaker 1: on that, especially in the context of rides sharing another services.

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Speaker 1: When when you look at the labor economy or we

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Speaker 1: better at understanding the role that that's playing and indeed

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Speaker 1: will play here going forward. Yeah. So, I mean, if

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Speaker 1: you're going to have Alan Kruger on that would be

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Speaker 1: a great time to ask him. He's clearly one of

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Speaker 1: the field's expert on that. You know. My my sense

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Speaker 1: on this is we will be getting better over time.

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Speaker 1: But the role of the so called gig economy in

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Speaker 1: the overall economy is not you right now, but it's

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Speaker 1: clearly growing and as a result, I think we will

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Speaker 1: be getting better and better at refining those techniques You

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Speaker 1: could imagine, for example, that on job's day, when you're

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Speaker 1: asking people how much they're working, if someone is self employed, um,

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Speaker 1: are they really really good at part saying how many

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Speaker 1: hours per day they're working? If they're if they're they're

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Speaker 1: self employed in that regard. And I think that's a

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Speaker 1: question that probably didn't matter as much twenty years ago,

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Speaker 1: but matters more now and will matter a lot more

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Speaker 1: ten years from now. Seth Carpenter, thank you so much

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Speaker 1: with us as we go to the FED meeting this morning.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and

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Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast

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Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene. David

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Speaker 1: Gura Is that David Gura? Before the podcast? You could

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Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio. Brunt You by

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