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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Ju us proud read enough.

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Speaker 3: They're all for running a game, so smoothe so sweet

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Speaker 3: sent mid sixteen.

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Speaker 2: Just glorious execution. Guys.

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Speaker 1: All I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four thousand

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Speaker 1: percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that? Shop with mind, buddy, and that's

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Speaker 2: why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most dangerous a mount of

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Speaker 1: the planet. Nobody kitchen, the shit shut up.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying.

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Speaker 1: Be all it left to one of.

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Speaker 2: The wide eyed, drilled bibused, how on earth that happens?

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Speaker 1: Hello everybody, and welcome to Wonder Goal, the soccer betting

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Speaker 1: podcast from the Action Network. I am your host today

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Speaker 1: BJ Cunningham. Michael Leebof is out for an episode in

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Speaker 1: a second. I'll be joined by my friend, my colleague,

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Speaker 1: my betting compatriot Anthony Dabundo. But first, Wonder Goal is

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Speaker 1: presented by BET three sixty five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand.

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Speaker 1: Sign Up with promo code action to get BET three

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Speaker 1: six fives exclusive sign up offer in Colorado, New Jersey

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Speaker 1: and Ohio Bet one dollar get two hundred free, And

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Speaker 1: you may want to use that promo on this weekend

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Speaker 1: of Premier League action because it is a doozy all

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Speaker 1: of the big six are playing against each other and

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Speaker 1: we are going to start on Thursday. Manchester City coming

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Speaker 1: off of Manchester Derby lost Manchester United hosting Tottenham, also

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Speaker 1: coming off a Darby loss to their hated rival Arsenal.

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Speaker 1: Manchester City is sitting at minus two seventy five. Tottenham

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Speaker 1: is sitting at seven to one, with the draw at

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Speaker 1: plus four fifty at Bet three sixty five. Anthony, this

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Speaker 1: is a very very interesting match here, especially on a Thursday.

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Speaker 1: These teams a little quick turnaround to the weekend. But

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Speaker 1: your beloved Tottenham, your third favorite team here in the

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Speaker 1: Premier League, lost to Arsenal. Do you think they have

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Speaker 1: any chance here against Manchester City to potentially maybe cover

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Speaker 1: a spread or went out right?

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Speaker 3: Well if you, if you believe in the concept of

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Speaker 3: bogee teams in the Premier League, then yes Tottenham has

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Speaker 3: a chance. They have been City's bogie team. Ask any

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Speaker 3: City fan and they'll tell you that. I have a

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Speaker 3: friend who's a big City fan and he was joking

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Speaker 3: about how it doesn't matter how bad Tottenham may look

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Speaker 3: in the North London Derby. You can pencil in Sona

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Speaker 3: and Kane for counter attacking goals and Spurs will produce,

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Speaker 3: you know, two goals off point one x g and

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Speaker 3: win two nil or whatever. But from a reality point

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Speaker 3: of view and from a matchup standpoint, I actually do

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Speaker 3: think Spurs defensively have a better chance in this matchup

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Speaker 3: than you know past attempts at guarding and defending City.

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Speaker 3: City only had five total shots against United. I thought

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Speaker 3: that was really stunning.

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Speaker 2: Credit United.

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Speaker 3: I mean they did a stellar job disrupting cities build up.

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Speaker 3: I thought they played really well out of possession and

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Speaker 3: they weren't allowing easy access into the penalty are from

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Speaker 3: Manchester City. But I also think something really interesting is

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Speaker 3: kind of developing with City as we've gone through this season.

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Speaker 3: Everybody knows how dominant they were last year. They should

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Speaker 3: have won the Champions League, they.

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Speaker 2: Did win the Premier League.

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Speaker 3: They only added Early Holland, so of course we expected

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Speaker 3: them to get even better this year, but that hasn't

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Speaker 3: really happened. You look at their shots, you look at

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Speaker 3: their x geper shot, their shots on target, their average

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Speaker 3: shot distance, it's all worse since adding Early Holland. They've

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Speaker 3: finished at an alarmingly good rate this year. Holland being

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Speaker 3: a great finisher getting most of those shots definitely helps.

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Speaker 3: But they're getting two less shots per match, one less

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Speaker 3: shot on target per match. Their x cheaper shots gone

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Speaker 3: down a tick, their average shot distant has gone up

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Speaker 3: a tick. So everything that you're looking for you'd expect

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Speaker 3: from Holland, which is getting a ton of really good shots.

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Speaker 2: It's not really happening outside of.

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Speaker 3: Him, and I think that's very interesting. Spurts just don't

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Speaker 3: concede a lot of big scoring chances. I mean, they're

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Speaker 3: very good at absorbing pressure and kind of sitting there

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Speaker 3: and trying to play through it.

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Speaker 2: They've been worse at playing through pressure this year.

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Speaker 3: We saw that, even the Larisse mistake and that led

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Speaker 3: to the near first goal in the derby on Sunday,

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Speaker 3: where Lo Reise made a great save that came from

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Speaker 3: a high turnover. The goal itself, you know, the first

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Speaker 3: goal was a bit flu key, but the second goal

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Speaker 3: comes from a high turnover as well. So like a

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Speaker 3: lot of mistakes. But City's not pressing as much this

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Speaker 3: year either. I mean they're they're allowing opponents to complete

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Speaker 3: more passes, so I think all of it leads to

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Speaker 3: a more low event game. Both attacks have run really hot.

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Speaker 3: I think this total's a little bit inflated at three.

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Speaker 3: You know, under three plus money under three minus one

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Speaker 3: ten is fine. I only project two point eight to

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Speaker 3: one goals for this match.

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Speaker 2: I do think City is a little overvalued as well.

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Speaker 3: It's correlated, of course, the underdog in the under when

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Speaker 3: the spreads one and a half totals three. So I

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Speaker 3: leaned towards Spurs as well, but I see this is

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Speaker 3: potentially like a one nil two two nil kind of game.

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Speaker 3: I don't think that City will just run and open

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Speaker 3: up Spurs because they just really haven't done that to

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Speaker 3: a lot of teams this year, and so I do

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Speaker 3: think this is a good underspot. Tottenham the biggest problem

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Speaker 3: defensively they don't allow big chances, but their goalkeeping has

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Speaker 3: been worse.

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Speaker 2: Larise has taken a step back.

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Speaker 3: I think he's still an average keeper in the prem

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Speaker 3: but they have conceived a lot of extra goals this

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Speaker 3: year to maybe some positive aggression there as well.

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Speaker 2: But all of it leads to to under three from.

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Speaker 3: Me and Son, this is really interesting going through the

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Speaker 3: numbers on him, and really the attack was built around

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Speaker 3: Son and Kane.

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Speaker 2: Son is getting three point twenty five attacking penalty area

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Speaker 2: touches this year per match. That is the lowest of

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Speaker 2: his Spurs career by quite a bit.

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Speaker 3: And the shot quality has fallen off considerably, still getting

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Speaker 3: three or four shots of game, but they're coming from

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Speaker 3: an average of eighteen.

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Speaker 2: Yards per instead of fifteen.

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Speaker 3: That's a big difference at the margins that those big

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Speaker 3: chances have not come for him this year. He's not

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Speaker 3: getting in the box as much getting on the end

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Speaker 3: of those chances. So I think there's just a general

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Speaker 3: breakdown for the Spurs attack, and you know you're going

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Speaker 3: to see that in this match as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually really do, like taught him in this

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Speaker 1: match plus one and a half and minus one ten.

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Speaker 1: The thing that really struck me for City a couple

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Speaker 1: of things is one, they were very poor in the

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Speaker 1: final third against United, Like they were able to get

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Speaker 1: the ball there, but their passing just wasn't that great.

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Speaker 1: And they did complete ten passes in the penalty area,

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Speaker 1: had twenty six touches there in field tilted United seventy

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Speaker 1: five percent, but like you already mentioned, they only get

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Speaker 1: a five shots after all that That's incredibly concerning, especially

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Speaker 1: when the game scripts can be very similar, because Tottenham

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Speaker 1: is going to sit in a low block just like

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Speaker 1: United did. And what City tried to do, which was

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Speaker 1: kind of annoying throughout the entire match. If you're somebody

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Speaker 1: like me who bet on City is Pep was just

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Speaker 1: adamant that they were going to play through the middle

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Speaker 1: of the pitch. Like he They United State very very

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Speaker 1: compact and they allowed City to play the ball into

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Speaker 1: wide areas and that's obviously where one of the goals

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Speaker 1: came from. But the same thing can be said here

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Speaker 1: that if if Totam's going to stay very compact, because

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Speaker 1: out of possession they were like staying mainly in a

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Speaker 1: five to four to one against Arsenal and clogging up

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Speaker 1: the middle of that pitch, forcing Arsenal and basically just

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Speaker 1: make lateral passes around the box. It's troublesome that if

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Speaker 1: City can only get off five shots against United, and

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Speaker 1: like you already mentioned, their average shots distance going up,

154
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Speaker 1: they're not getting as many good, high quality looks. How

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Speaker 1: are they going to actually break down this low block?

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Speaker 1: Now we could all look really stupid and they can

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Speaker 1: put up six goals just like they did against United.

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Speaker 1: But Tottenham is one of the best teams at defending

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Speaker 1: their penalty in the Premier League. Yes, they are seventh

160
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Speaker 1: and spectacles allowed, but it's because they allow over fourteen

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Speaker 1: shots per ninety But Tottenham's average shot distance allowed is

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Speaker 1: the best in the Premier League on average at eighteen

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Speaker 1: point nine yards. So and like you already mentioned, they

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Speaker 1: don't allow a lot of big scoring chances, so I

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Speaker 1: think it's gonna be like I agree with you, I

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Speaker 1: think it's be very, very difficult for City to actually

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Speaker 1: create those high quality chances. And the Spurs attack looked

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Speaker 1: better against Arsenal, and I think what we saw is

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Speaker 1: that they were allowed. They were much more direct. They

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Speaker 1: weren't trying to play build up like they did against

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Speaker 1: United when it looks like they couldn't string two passes together.

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Speaker 1: They were throwing a lot of long balls up the

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Speaker 1: pitch and putting pressure on the back line, which in

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Speaker 1: this match, with no Rubin Diaz, no John Stones, it's

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Speaker 1: probably gonna be a good idea to attack Nathan Aka

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Speaker 1: and Kanji. And the thing is Spurs outshot Arsenal in

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Speaker 1: the penalty at twelve to eight, like they created one

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Speaker 1: point six sixpeded goals. It was a lot better for

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Speaker 1: Tottenham and City against United. They did look vulnerable in

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Speaker 1: transition with three or four opportunities. And I mean, you

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Speaker 1: can say what you will about the off sides. We'll

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Speaker 1: get to that when we talk about United and Arsenal

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Speaker 1: how dumb that was. But again, United's chances basically came

184
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Speaker 1: in transition, where Spurs have looked best this season, when

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Speaker 1: they're basically sitting back in a low block and transitioning well.

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Speaker 1: So you know, I only have Cities spread projected at

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Speaker 1: minus one point one eight, so Spurs plus one and

188
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Speaker 1: a half at minus one ten is good enough value

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Speaker 1: for me. So I will be on your Spurs plus

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Speaker 1: one and a half and maybe on them again against

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Speaker 1: Fulham on Monday. But we'll get to that in a second.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to another Big six matchup,

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Speaker 1: my Super Bowl Arsenal hosting Manchester United on Sunday at

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Speaker 1: twelve thirty pm Eastern Time. Arsenal is minus one eighteen,

195
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Speaker 1: United sitting at three to one, the draw sing at

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Speaker 1: plus two to seventy five. If anybody's listened to this

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Speaker 1: podcast for more than I don't know, four or five episodes.

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Speaker 1: I think they know exactly where I'm going on this one.

199
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Speaker 1: I love the Arsenal money line, but I'll let you

200
00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:09,440
Speaker 1: get in first. Are you going to join me on

201
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Speaker 1: this Arsenal money line or are you going to color away?

202
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Speaker 3: I will be passing lean the under. I think I

203
00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:19,560
Speaker 3: might end up actually betting the under because I have

204
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Speaker 3: been extremely impressed with the United defense. I think that

205
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Speaker 3: they put in back to back performances against both City

206
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Speaker 3: and Crystal Palace that we're very encouraging. And you know,

207
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Speaker 3: we talked last week we said, okay, United looked really

208
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Speaker 3: good defensively. They've improved out of possession. I think we've

209
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Speaker 3: said that, you know, a few months ago, but they

210
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Speaker 3: had done it in the last few weeks against Bournemouth

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Speaker 3: Wolves Forest. We were like, okay, let's play a real team. Well,

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Speaker 3: they played a real team City. They had them a

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Speaker 3: five shots. They did an excellent job defensively. They got

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Speaker 3: carved open once from a wide area. But I was

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Speaker 3: extremely impressed with the defense, and I think they played

216
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Speaker 3: an extremely good defensive game against Crystal pass Alis as well,

217
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Speaker 3: even though the beloved Eagles did get the point late

218
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Speaker 3: on a power sometimes sometimes you can see a twenty

219
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Speaker 3: five yard thirty yard screamer, you know, less than half

220
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Speaker 3: of an expected goal. Palace didn't really do much most

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Speaker 3: of the match, even though United kind of struggled to

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Speaker 3: keep control. But they lost Casamiro and I think that's

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Speaker 3: a big loss here because it probably means we're getting

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Speaker 3: the mcfred pivot here. And it's a little concerning because

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Speaker 3: I you know, if you were to go to the

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Speaker 3: root of the problems for Man United under Oleg Gun

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Speaker 3: and Solcio, I think it really started with the mcfred

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Speaker 3: pivot that just was not good enough mcdonminy, not good

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Speaker 3: enough of a pass, or not good enough at retaining

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Speaker 3: possession under pressure, and that led to.

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Speaker 2: Them struggling to control games.

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Speaker 3: And if you struggle to control the game at the

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Speaker 3: Emirates and you're giving up possession, Arsenal that's where they're

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Speaker 3: at their best. These are the two most improved defenses

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Speaker 3: in the league year every year. I think if you

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Speaker 3: look across the board, you can you know kind of chart,

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Speaker 3: you know, how is the team performing last year versus

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Speaker 3: this year. The two best improvements Arsenal and Transition United,

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Speaker 3: though I think does kind of get a tactical reprieve

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Speaker 3: here because they're so good at spring encounters. I mean

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Speaker 3: we saw in the last meeting, granted it was at

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Speaker 3: Old Trafford, Arsenal was probably the most exposed they've been

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Speaker 3: all year in transition defense, and it was losing the

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Speaker 3: ball middle of the pitch. Fernandez ericson pinging the balls

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Speaker 3: over the top to the Rashfords of the.

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Speaker 2: World and getting in behind.

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Speaker 3: I think that's the one area where I think, you know,

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Speaker 3: Arsenal could be potentially vulnerable here. But I think both

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Speaker 3: attacks are a little bit overvalued. I've been saying this

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Speaker 3: for weeks. The two Arsenal, you know, getting the production

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Speaker 3: they're getting out of you know, these guys seems a

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Speaker 3: little bit over their skis and United.

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Speaker 2: We saw it today.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they didn't create anything in the second half.

255
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Speaker 3: They you know, point one five XG in the in

256
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Speaker 3: the forty five minutes and they had one big chance

257
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Speaker 3: off a corner and stoppage time. But they have struggled,

258
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Speaker 3: and I do wonder, you know, like a front three

259
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Speaker 3: of Vegarist, Rashford and Antony. I don't think there's enough

260
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Speaker 3: shots in that to you know, be a consistently good

261
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Speaker 3: attack against an Arsenal defense like this, So I leaned

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Speaker 3: to the under pretty strongly. I'm just a little worried,

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Speaker 3: like what does it look like without Casimiro, because I.

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Speaker 2: Think that it's kind of interesting.

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Speaker 3: Like United, for as well as they played against City

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Speaker 3: didn't create anything either until the offside goal, So like

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Speaker 3: we should pump the brakes on United's attack here.

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Speaker 1: That's a wonderful point, Anthony, because if that gets called

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Speaker 1: off sides and suddenly the match is still won nothing.

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Speaker 1: Do you think United gets that wonderful springing counter attack

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Speaker 1: or do you think City he plays a little more conservative.

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Speaker 1: But to your point about Casimiro on how big he

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Speaker 1: is for United, I went did the on off splits

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Speaker 1: for them defensively with and without Casimiro, because essentially when

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Speaker 1: he started starting fully in the Manchester United lineup, he

276
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Speaker 1: obviously came off the bench for a while, you know,

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Speaker 1: against Liverpool and up until essentially the Manchi at the

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Speaker 1: first Manchester derby. He started his first match against Everton.

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Speaker 1: Since that point, which is on October ninth, Since that point,

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Speaker 1: United is only allowing point eight expected goals for ninety minutes.

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Speaker 1: So basically when talk about how good unit it's been

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Speaker 1: since they had that horrible match against City. Well, it's

283
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Speaker 1: basically because they, like you already mentioned, they don't have

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Speaker 1: to go to mcfred anymore. They have Casamiro, who is

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Speaker 1: an unbelievable defensive midfielder, and they can play a double

286
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Speaker 1: pivot with him at Ericson and allow Erickson to go forward.

287
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Speaker 1: Before Cassamiro, before he started starting regularly for United, they

288
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Speaker 1: were allowing one point five eight expectacles per ninety minutes.

289
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Speaker 1: And I understand that they went through a rough stretch

290
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Speaker 1: to begin the season, but that's how much he actually

291
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Speaker 1: means for their midfield. And I think it's going to

292
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Speaker 1: be very, very difficult for them to stop Arsenal because,

293
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Speaker 1: like I already mentioned, they did a great job clawing

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Speaker 1: up in the middle of the pitch against City, and

295
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Speaker 1: I had I was writing my notes out during the

296
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Speaker 1: Crystal Palace match and where I was what I had

297
00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:42,839
Speaker 1: down was basically Arsenal has done such a good job

298
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Speaker 1: at creating overloads and attacking opponents in wide areas, with

299
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Speaker 1: Martinelli Shaka Oude Guard basically being allowed to roam around

300
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Speaker 1: the pitch because Thomas Party is such a good defensive

301
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Speaker 1: midfielder at cleaning up those transition opportunities that Arsenal that's

302
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Speaker 1: where they're created that at their best, creating those type

303
00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:01,320
Speaker 1: of opportunities. But now I think they'll be able to

304
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Speaker 1: play through wherever they want at the pit on the

305
00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:07,080
Speaker 1: pitch and ten Hawk obviously against United he brought on Fred,

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Speaker 1: he took off Antony and he said all right, we

307
00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:10,640
Speaker 1: got to play two defensive midfielders because we're not going

308
00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:12,040
Speaker 1: to have the ball as much, which was very very

309
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Speaker 1: smart to do. If we see mcfred again, I think

310
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Speaker 1: Arsenal is going to pummel them. And you mentioned the

311
00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:20,400
Speaker 1: last meeting, well there was a you know it, expect

312
00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:22,880
Speaker 1: goals was essentially dead. Even there was a questionable var

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Speaker 1: decision as well in the first half that could have

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Speaker 1: changed the outcome of the match. But a big thing

315
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Speaker 1: for Arsenal in that's match is they didn't have Thomas Party,

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Speaker 1: who Gardi mentioned is one of the best defensive midfielders

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00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:37,160
Speaker 1: in transition and is really the main reason why Arsenal

318
00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:40,000
Speaker 1: is the best defensive team in transition, allowing the second

319
00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:42,840
Speaker 1: fewest progressive passes in dribbles for ninety minutes and also

320
00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:47,120
Speaker 1: allowing the fifth lowest build up completion percentage. And let's

321
00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:51,040
Speaker 1: be honest. United success this season against the Big Six

322
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Speaker 1: all of it's come at Old Trafford because they've beaten Liverpool,

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Speaker 1: Tottham City and Arsenal all at home and they've only

324
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Speaker 1: played two Big Six sides away from home, where they

325
00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:02,400
Speaker 1: got pasted by City six y three and then they

326
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Speaker 1: needed a stoppage time goal to beat a Chelsea team

327
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Speaker 1: that was starting to have all of their problems. Arsenal

328
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Speaker 1: is one of the best home teams in the Premier League.

329
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Speaker 1: They're plus eleven point seven expected gold differential in eight

330
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Speaker 1: matches and Arsenal is going to have the rest advantage

331
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Speaker 1: with City or excuse me, with United playing on Wednesday

332
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Speaker 1: against Crystal Palace. So I think the price is a

333
00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:22,400
Speaker 1: tad short here on Arsenal. You know I grabbed them

334
00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:24,680
Speaker 1: once Casimiro got the yellow card. I said, all right,

335
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Speaker 1: I'm in. Now. They've jumped up at most books around

336
00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:30,680
Speaker 1: minus one fifteen minus one twenty. But I still do

337
00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:32,720
Speaker 1: like them at that price because I do project them

338
00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:35,320
Speaker 1: at minus one forty eight. And just for all of

339
00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:37,880
Speaker 1: you think I'm so biased out there, five thirty eight

340
00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:40,000
Speaker 1: has Arsenal at fifty four percent as well, so they

341
00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:41,640
Speaker 1: are showing a tad bit of value on them as well.

342
00:15:41,720 --> 00:15:46,360
Speaker 1: So I love my Gunners minus one fifteen on the

343
00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:49,040
Speaker 1: money line to beat Manchester United.

344
00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:52,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've got Arsenal minus one twenty seven, so yeah,

345
00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:54,360
Speaker 3: maybe a tiny bit of value, but again same thing.

346
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Speaker 2: I'm not running to the window. This is kind of

347
00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:57,760
Speaker 2: similar to the Newcastle match for me.

348
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Speaker 3: I think we're kind of a you know, to ascending

349
00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,200
Speaker 3: team where I'm not really looking to bet on either.

350
00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:05,440
Speaker 3: You know, Arsenal had a good performance against Tottenham, aided

351
00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:06,360
Speaker 3: by Larissa's air.

352
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Speaker 2: It really didn't like how they played the second half.

353
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Speaker 3: You know, you're up two goals, but when Arsenal doesn't

354
00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:12,960
Speaker 3: have the possession, they're so bad. I mean there was

355
00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:15,880
Speaker 3: there was a lot of last ditch miracle defending in

356
00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:19,920
Speaker 3: Ramsdale backpacking that got them that result and thankfully it'd

357
00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:23,240
Speaker 3: saved my under. But yeah, I mean it was just

358
00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:26,440
Speaker 3: not that encouraging. But like you said, United having Casimir

359
00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:28,760
Speaker 3: a huge loss. If I bet anything here it will

360
00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:31,440
Speaker 3: be the under. But I don't really like a side.

361
00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:33,840
Speaker 2: I do like a sign in the next match.

362
00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:38,920
Speaker 1: Let's move on to that match. Saturday morning, seven thirty

363
00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:44,040
Speaker 1: am Eastern Time, Liverpool hosting Chelsea. Liverpool's minus one eighteen,

364
00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:46,400
Speaker 1: Chelsea sitting up plus three twenty with the draw plus

365
00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:50,480
Speaker 1: two seventy five. Two big six clubs that are having

366
00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:51,520
Speaker 1: a lot of problems. And you know what I was

367
00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:53,440
Speaker 1: thinking about when I was doing the prep for this,

368
00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:57,800
Speaker 1: I was like, remember last January when these two were meeting.

369
00:16:58,280 --> 00:16:59,560
Speaker 1: It was over the right at the end of the

370
00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:01,600
Speaker 1: Christmas break. You know, both were kind of competing for

371
00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:03,280
Speaker 1: the title and had in the build up and how

372
00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:06,439
Speaker 1: big that match was. And now we're here where we're like,

373
00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:09,760
Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm in the position where I'm like,

374
00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:11,800
Speaker 1: I don't want to bet either of these teams right now,

375
00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:14,399
Speaker 1: but you seem to love a side in this match.

376
00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:17,399
Speaker 3: I do like Chelsea, and I'll be betting Chelsea, and

377
00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:19,080
Speaker 3: I have bet Chelsea. If you found him in the app,

378
00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:21,359
Speaker 3: then you know I took the Blues plus a half.

379
00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:23,560
Speaker 2: Look, both these midfields are broken. I'm not going to.

380
00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:27,439
Speaker 3: Deny that Chelsea did show signs of life though they

381
00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:31,120
Speaker 3: had two back to back encouraging performances. I know they

382
00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:33,439
Speaker 3: lost to Fulham, but you look at the shots in

383
00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:35,400
Speaker 3: that match that you created thirteen shots in the first

384
00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:39,439
Speaker 3: half one expected goals pretty comfortably, a fluke red card.

385
00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:41,639
Speaker 3: They lose the match to one, but I thought they

386
00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:44,119
Speaker 3: played really well. I actually upgraded Chelsea after that lost

387
00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:46,840
Speaker 3: to Fulham. It's kind of funny to say, but Chelsea

388
00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:50,000
Speaker 3: got bumped and then they played a pretty encouraging match

389
00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:53,240
Speaker 3: against Palace where you know they had two or three

390
00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:55,320
Speaker 3: good chances. I felt a little fortunate to push my

391
00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:58,639
Speaker 3: Palace plus one in that match. The defense looked improved.

392
00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:03,080
Speaker 3: I think that they're are like the tiniest of signs

393
00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:05,800
Speaker 3: of maybe turning a corner here and being an above

394
00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:09,280
Speaker 3: average team. Again, Liverpool's training the opposite direction one hundred percent.

395
00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:11,480
Speaker 3: I mean, look, they played FA Cup match against Wolves

396
00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:15,080
Speaker 3: on Tuesday. It flew under the radar because you know

397
00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:18,399
Speaker 3: the FA Cup replay like nobody cares. But they went

398
00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:18,879
Speaker 3: to Wolves.

399
00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:21,920
Speaker 2: They lost the XG one point four to point two.

400
00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:25,000
Speaker 3: They scored early Elliott, nice goal, but they were really

401
00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:28,439
Speaker 3: really bad again. They got pummeled by Brighton and this

402
00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:31,280
Speaker 3: is like a weird spot for them too.

403
00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:35,560
Speaker 2: I mean, they're in a crisis period.

404
00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:37,320
Speaker 3: Where they're not getting any of their guys back, except

405
00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:40,639
Speaker 3: maybe Nunya's, but even Nunya is coming back doesn't fix

406
00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:43,000
Speaker 3: the fact that Van Dyke is out and the midfield

407
00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:47,040
Speaker 3: is just kind of I think done. Like I'm getting

408
00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:49,919
Speaker 3: to the point now after watching the Brighton match where

409
00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:52,639
Speaker 3: you're seeing Liverpool do everything they tried to do for

410
00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:56,000
Speaker 3: years successfully and none of it is working. And I

411
00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:59,800
Speaker 3: think that's a major problem against Chelsea, who, despite their problems,

412
00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:03,760
Speaker 3: like has what I think will be an improving defense

413
00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:05,600
Speaker 3: going forward. I think that's what we're gonna see with Chelsea.

414
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:08,760
Speaker 3: So at plus a half here, I think these two

415
00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:10,639
Speaker 3: teams are both the mess I'm going to take the

416
00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:13,800
Speaker 3: drop protection and take the half a goal. I actually

417
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:16,119
Speaker 3: project this number right around the same, but given the

418
00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:18,639
Speaker 3: trend lines, I'm gonna take Chelsea.

419
00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:21,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like over three goals at plus one point fifteen.

420
00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:25,199
Speaker 1: You know you mentioned the dismantling by Brighton. What was

421
00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:27,840
Speaker 1: interesting about what Klopp tried to do and why He's like,

422
00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:31,240
Speaker 1: it was my fault that completely backfired. He tried to

423
00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:36,160
Speaker 1: stay so so narrow with Liverpool's pressing because Brighton loves

424
00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:38,359
Speaker 1: to build out of the back. They love to use

425
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:40,199
Speaker 1: their center backs to be the ones then build through

426
00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:42,000
Speaker 1: the middle of the pitch. That's why they've dismantled so

427
00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,720
Speaker 1: many teams. He was so so worried about that that

428
00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:47,359
Speaker 1: he pushed the Ago all the way up the pitch

429
00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:50,439
Speaker 1: to essentially press the Brighton center backs and try to

430
00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:52,679
Speaker 1: and try to keep the team shape, and Brighton just

431
00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,200
Speaker 1: would play two passes right through them out to Matoma

432
00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:57,919
Speaker 1: and then it's Potoma versus Alexander Arnold and they just

433
00:19:57,920 --> 00:19:59,879
Speaker 1: did that over and over and over again, and it

434
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:04,600
Speaker 1: just completely dismantled them. Now, Chelsea, they've had their issues

435
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:06,439
Speaker 1: in the final third, but they still do have the

436
00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:09,960
Speaker 1: talent in the midfield and out wide. Probably won't see

437
00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:11,679
Speaker 1: Muderick in this one, but they definitely still even with

438
00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,199
Speaker 1: all the injuries, they still have enough talent there to

439
00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:19,840
Speaker 1: exploit Liverpool in those areas. And Liverpool's defense, I mean,

440
00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:23,119
Speaker 1: it's just flat out horrible this year and now without

441
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 1: Van Dyke. We've talked about last episode, like maybe it's

442
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:27,880
Speaker 1: not the worst thing in the world that Van Dyke

443
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,880
Speaker 1: is out because Kanate is such a great center back

444
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:32,800
Speaker 1: right now, but Liverpool is still twelfth and non penalty

445
00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:36,560
Speaker 1: expect goals. Loud in fact, the last time that Liverpool

446
00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:39,440
Speaker 1: held an opponent under one expectacle merely can you name

447
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:39,920
Speaker 1: that time?

448
00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 3: I will say maybe Newcastle Newcastle on August thirty.

449
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:51,400
Speaker 1: First, it's been thirteen matches since they've held an opponent

450
00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:53,879
Speaker 1: under one expected goal. And but the flip side of

451
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:56,320
Speaker 1: that is Liverpool's offense, like they're still creating, it's on chances,

452
00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:58,960
Speaker 1: Like they're still around one point eight expected goals per

453
00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 1: ninety minutes. Like Arman Nuniez will be back. He's obviously,

454
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,119
Speaker 1: you know, he's had his finishing issues, but he's still

455
00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:07,760
Speaker 1: you know, second highest x G per ninety striker in

456
00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:11,840
Speaker 1: the Premier League right now, behind Holland so and Chelsea.

457
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,040
Speaker 1: On the other hand, like there's still bottom ten expected

458
00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:17,440
Speaker 1: goals allowed, Like their defense still hasn't shown any signs

459
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:19,520
Speaker 1: of being the elite defense that we've sawunder two Chol

460
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:23,120
Speaker 1: or maybe early on under Potter. So I have three

461
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,520
Speaker 1: point five goals protected for this match. You know, Liverpool's

462
00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 1: matches are averaging a little over three point two expected

463
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 1: goals this season, so I am showing a little bit

464
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 1: of value on over three goals at plus one fifteen.

465
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 3: All right, Well, one thing you know, I think it

466
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:38,199
Speaker 3: goes in cycles, and I think, you know, we hit

467
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:41,440
Speaker 3: the bottom of the market on United after that brighton Brentford.

468
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:44,480
Speaker 3: You know, situation ten Hok coming in was going to

469
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:45,879
Speaker 3: start to turn it around eventually.

470
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:48,280
Speaker 2: I think we've hit the bottom of the market on

471
00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:48,920
Speaker 2: Chelsea here.

472
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,679
Speaker 3: I'm going to put my line in the sand and

473
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:53,640
Speaker 3: say that I think we've found the bottom on Chelsea

474
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,840
Speaker 3: and that you know some of those closing numbers against

475
00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:58,680
Speaker 3: Fulham and against Palace, that you know they close minus

476
00:21:58,680 --> 00:21:59,879
Speaker 3: one twenty at home against Palace.

477
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 2: I think that's kind of the bottom here.

478
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,800
Speaker 3: I think we're getting toward the cycle on Liverpool where

479
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:07,440
Speaker 3: we reach the bottom, but I don't think we've gotten

480
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,679
Speaker 3: there yet. And the market has come down here they

481
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:11,880
Speaker 3: were minus one forty one thirty five look ahead down

482
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:15,120
Speaker 3: to minus one fifteen. Now we're getting to the point

483
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:16,920
Speaker 3: where we're nearing the bottom, but again I don't think

484
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:21,239
Speaker 3: it's come yet. They probably get healthy before you hit

485
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 3: the bottom bottom. But I think this is a good

486
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:24,960
Speaker 3: Chelsea spot.

487
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 1: Well you speak about another good Chelsea spot after the

488
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 1: FA Cup break.

489
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:29,640
Speaker 2: They have.

490
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:33,560
Speaker 1: Fulham again at home, so i'll be very interesting.

491
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 2: It's going to be laying a goal though I don't know.

492
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:36,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, they were laying a goal. I say, I'm very

493
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:38,960
Speaker 1: interested to see what that line is, depending obviously what

494
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:42,919
Speaker 1: happens in this Liverpool match. All right, let's move on

495
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 1: to a relegation six pointer, Bournemouth hosting Nottingham Forest. Bournems

496
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:52,119
Speaker 1: sitting at plus one seventy, Nottingham Forest sitting at plus

497
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:55,400
Speaker 1: one eighty, with the draw at plus two ten. This

498
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:59,359
Speaker 1: to me is one of the easiest passes on the

499
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 1: board this weekend. I was potentially looking at both teams

500
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 1: to score no in this type of match, but Dean

501
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 1: Henderson's going to be out for nodding up for us

502
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 1: and I want nothing to do with Wayne Hennessy and

503
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 1: Bournemouth's offensive regression is just coming in waves and waves now.

504
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,040
Speaker 1: It's been quite a few matches since they put the

505
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 1: ball in the back of the net, so I am

506
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 1: staying away from this one. Do you have anything on

507
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 1: this relegation six pointer.

508
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:26,880
Speaker 3: I'm actually a little tempted to play for us because

509
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:28,520
Speaker 3: of the injury crisis for Bournemouth. Here.

510
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:30,919
Speaker 2: You know, Bournemouth was one of.

511
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,680
Speaker 3: The worst attacks. They are the worst attack. They've never

512
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 3: been anything more than that. I said that every single

513
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 3: week on this show. But now they're dealing with all

514
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,200
Speaker 3: their injuries to these good players, like all their quote

515
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 3: unquote good players are injured. They will not have Slankey.

516
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 3: It looks like for this match. They will not have

517
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 3: Lewis Cook for this match. They will not have Tavernier

518
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 3: for this match. Tavnier is their leader in shock creating

519
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,639
Speaker 3: actions junior status. Last is probably the guy you'd expect

520
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:56,920
Speaker 3: to step up, but it looks like he's going to

521
00:23:57,000 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 3: be out as well. They will get Adam Smith back

522
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,159
Speaker 3: he was. You know, he's a big part of their

523
00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:05,439
Speaker 3: progressive passing machine. But even that with him in the lineup,

524
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 3: their dead last box touches nineteenth progressive passes. Forrest's defense

525
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 3: away from home has been a disaster, like they've really struggled.

526
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:17,879
Speaker 3: I think Forest is a better team. The injuries almost

527
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:19,920
Speaker 3: get me to play Forest here, but I'm probably gonna

528
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:22,920
Speaker 3: end up passing because it is a spot here where

529
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 3: New Bourmuth have not scored in four straight league games.

530
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:28,959
Speaker 3: They've created point six or less expected goals in those games.

531
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:31,440
Speaker 3: They burned all their goals in that FA Cup match

532
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 3: against Everton, and they haven't. They're just not a very

533
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 3: good attack. It's going to be key for more. Forrest

534
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:41,000
Speaker 3: has been okay on set pieces. They've actually improved a

535
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:43,399
Speaker 3: lot in the last two months on set pieces. It

536
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,399
Speaker 3: has been one of their main areas. So do the

537
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:47,639
Speaker 3: Cherries get one off a set piece? Maybe, but it's

538
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 3: really hard to put together the path for goals here.

539
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 3: But again the total is sitting at two and a quarter,

540
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 3: so no real value in the under for me either,

541
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 3: So this is going to end up being a pass

542
00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 3: for me on Saturday.

543
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, no lan l and no Lingard for Forrest as well,

544
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 1: So this is just one of those easiest pass on

545
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 1: the board. Let's move on to a more exciting match,

546
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:12,920
Speaker 1: Lester hosting Brighton at ten am Eastern Time at the

547
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 1: king Power Stadium. Lester's sitting up plus two forty, Brighton

548
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 1: a plus one ten road favorite, the draw setting up

549
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 1: plus two fifty, another very very easy pass. Do you

550
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 1: remember here's a nice question for you. Do you remember

551
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 1: what Brighton was at home when they pasted Leicester five too?

552
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:31,200
Speaker 2: Minus one of five minus one of five.

553
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think, yeah, So that's just kind of

554
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 1: shows you where we're at with the market. On Brighton

555
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 1: and listen, every market, whether it be soccer, football, basketball,

556
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 1: it's a very very finished, efficient market. And that's what

557
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,400
Speaker 1: you're seeing here is that the market knows how good

558
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:48,680
Speaker 1: Brighton is. They didn't know how bad Liverpool was last week,

559
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 1: so we got to take a little victory lap on that.

560
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:54,200
Speaker 1: But still there is no way in hell I'm playing

561
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 1: a goal or half a goal on the road. Even

562
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 1: if Lester has had all their problems, I've read projected

563
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 1: at plus one twenty four, I may have been running

564
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:07,760
Speaker 1: really hot offensively under deserve. You know, we're at twenty

565
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:11,959
Speaker 1: four goals off of around twenty expected, so eventually some

566
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 1: offensive regression is going to hit Brighton. But yeah, just

567
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 1: Brighton's just over valued here on the road. So I'll

568
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:19,399
Speaker 1: be passing, do you have anything for Lester and Brighton?

569
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 2: Offensive regression will never hit Brighton. There they are for it,

570
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 2: That's right. I still like three years ago, whatever that

571
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 2: whenever that was, that one.

572
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:31,679
Speaker 1: Sason in twenty twenty seven will be saying, no.

573
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:33,840
Speaker 3: None of the players will still play for Brighton because

574
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 3: they're wearing the shirt they're going to be Dude, I'm kidding,

575
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 3: but I mean it essentially is a whole new team now,

576
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 3: but Pascal Gross is still kicking. Sally March is now

577
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 3: the best winger in the prim second best behind Carol mckilma. Yeah,

578
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 3: I mean, look, it's a weird spot for Brighton, uh

579
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 3: because they just wax Liverpool over the weekend. They actually

580
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 3: have Liverpool next weekend.

581
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 2: I know.

582
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 1: I'm so excited for that.

583
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:56,200
Speaker 2: I have not seen a line yet. I was looking

584
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:56,640
Speaker 2: for one today.

585
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:59,159
Speaker 3: They haven't posted one, at least the two books I

586
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 3: check didn't post it yet. So I'll be looking for that.

587
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 3: We'll be fascinating because it's at Brighton. So I'm guessing

588
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:08,400
Speaker 3: Brighton will be a favorite. It has I think they're

589
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:10,200
Speaker 3: going to be a favorite because of the Cup situation.

590
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:12,480
Speaker 3: Tends to shade toward the dog when you have a

591
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 3: Big six team a little bit. But that being said,

592
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,919
Speaker 3: this is a classic. Like, yeah, I like Brighton, but

593
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:21,680
Speaker 3: like they're too cheap, Like the numbers are just not

594
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 3: good enough. We play numbers as much as we also

595
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,119
Speaker 3: play teams. We do play numbers here and the numbers

596
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:26,359
Speaker 3: is not good.

597
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:27,399
Speaker 2: It's kind of like last weekend.

598
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 3: I mean, Arsenal at Spurs. Spurs are in shit form.

599
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:33,400
Speaker 3: Lester in shit form. Arsenal are playing really well right now.

600
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:35,240
Speaker 3: Brighton are playing really well and the market has moved

601
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:37,680
Speaker 3: them a little too far to the point where you're

602
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:41,239
Speaker 3: paying a premium attax on Brighton. Never thought i'd say that,

603
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 3: but yeah, if you made me bet it like I

604
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:46,480
Speaker 3: would bet Brighton, but I just don't. I can't get

605
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 3: there on the numbers. So this is also gonna be

606
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:52,439
Speaker 3: a pass for me. Lester's attack man. Another game of

607
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:54,399
Speaker 3: just nothing. I mean, they had a couple of good chances.

608
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:57,920
Speaker 2: Hobby Barnes kept selling selling chances.

609
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:00,720
Speaker 3: He had two really where he put you know, the

610
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 3: one was a tough angle but he really should have

611
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 3: done better and than the one right in front of

612
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 3: the goal. But yeah, Forrest deserved winners in the end.

613
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:10,879
Speaker 3: It's just a weird situation with Lester where there are

614
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:12,960
Speaker 3: a couple losses away from getting dragged into the relegation

615
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 3: battle and they're nowhere near the top ten but they're

616
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 3: kind of in the adultrums. But yeah, overall it's another pass.

617
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 3: So many good games this weekend, this is one I

618
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 3: will not be Betty.

619
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:24,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, well known James Madison for Leicester, so it's very

620
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 1: very hard to get behind their attack when he's not involved.

621
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to another ten am Eastern match,

622
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 1: Southampton hosting Unai Emery's Aston Villa. Southampton sitting at plus

623
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 1: one eighty seven, aston Villa sitting at plus one fifty five,

624
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,000
Speaker 1: with the draw sing at plus two twenty five. These

625
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 1: odds all as always coming from our friends at bat

626
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 1: three six five. I'll kick it to you first. I

627
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 1: actually kind of like Southampton here, but what do you

628
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 1: have for this match?

629
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:55,479
Speaker 3: I can't get understand this total two and a half

630
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:59,600
Speaker 3: under minus one sixteen one seventeen. The total was lower

631
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 3: forever to Southampton last week at two and a quarter

632
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 3: with Everton's god awful defense. Now I get a much

633
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 3: better defense in this matchup. Southampton gets asked in Villa

634
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:12,960
Speaker 3: Villa is a top ten defense pretty comfortably. You could

635
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:16,280
Speaker 3: argue they're the best non big seven. I'm gonna say

636
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 3: the top six normal we talk about plus Newcastle. They

637
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 3: are probably the best non big seven defense in the league,

638
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 3: which we're gonna have to start calling the big six

639
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:28,640
Speaker 3: to big seven pretty soon. But I just don't understand

640
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 3: the total here. I make it two and a quarter,

641
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 3: and so at two and a half. I love the

642
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 3: under Bundia has.

643
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 2: Been playing more.

644
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 3: That's improved Villa's attack a little bit, but they still

645
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 3: don't do a great job of getting the ball into

646
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 3: the penalty area. They're just kind of like a mediocre

647
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 3: attacking team that doesn't do a ton to get it there.

648
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 3: And Southampton, as much as they've struggled in goal this year,

649
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 3: they've done a good job from a field tip perspective

650
00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 3: keeping other teams out of their penalty area. They're right

651
00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 3: around thirteen to fourteenth and some of those key metrics

652
00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 3: we look at defensively, so it's not quite as shambolic

653
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 3: as those goals allowed in that their twentieth position in

654
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 3: the table suggests. And this is a desperation spot for them,

655
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 3: so I do expect a full effort. Villa doesn't really

656
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 3: run up scores or get margin very well either, so

657
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:14,040
Speaker 3: this is kind of a coin flippy kind of game

658
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 3: where I could very well see it ending one to

659
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 3: one or one nil. But I just can't believe this

660
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 3: is two and a half one sixteen, given that we

661
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 3: just had a you know, a two and a quarter

662
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 3: against the worst defense last week.

663
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 2: So give me the under two and a half.

664
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 1: I actually, yeah, I do like Southampton in this match.

665
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 1: You know, by the naked eye, you know, Southampton silling

666
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 1: in the relegation zone. Aston Villa is flying high under Uniamor,

667
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:39,440
Speaker 1: you know, winning format four of his six matches in charge.

668
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 1: But you know, you look at the metrics for the

669
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 1: hole for the season. You know, these two clubs who

670
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 1: both have had to sack a manager, there really is

671
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 1: a lot of difference in their underlying metrics. I mean

672
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 1: Southampton is currently sitting with minus point two non penalty

673
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 1: expected gold differential per ninety. Aston Villa is at minus

674
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 1: point one. You know, Southampton's allowing one point two six

675
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 1: non penalties goals for match. Aston Villa is at one

676
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 1: point twenty four. And south Southampton are going to be

677
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 1: set up to play very very direct, which is something

678
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:09,320
Speaker 1: I think will be a big benefit to them in

679
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 1: this match because Leads they were very very direct against

680
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 1: aston Villa and they created a boatload of chances in

681
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 1: both transition and off of set pieces. I mean Leads

682
00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 1: created two point four expected goals, fourteen penalty box shots,

683
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 1: thirty one touches in the penalty area, all with just

684
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 1: the three ten plus pass sequences and a build up

685
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 1: completion rate of sixty eight point six percents. That just

686
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 1: highlights how effective they were in transition and that's something

687
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 1: Southampton's gonna be able to do them as well, because

688
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 1: Nathan Jones teams they do like to press high and

689
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:43,440
Speaker 1: they do like to to try to create high turnovers,

690
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 1: which is something leads to a great job of as well.

691
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 1: They forced nine high turnovers and had a pass per

692
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 1: defensive action of six point one against aston Villa. And

693
00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 1: let's just be honest, I mean, Astonville's offense is just

694
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:53,719
Speaker 1: running in this kind of place the under as well.

695
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 1: Their offense has been running really really hot. They've scored

696
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 1: ten goals off of seven and a half expected. They've

697
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 1: created just three big scoring chances in their life seven

698
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 1: matches and this is just a really good all in spot,

699
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:06,680
Speaker 1: desperation spot here for Southampton, who has won three straight

700
00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 1: matches and all competitions. Got to win against City in

701
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 1: the EFL Cup and then be Crystal Palace on the

702
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 1: road in the FA Cup. They've been much better at

703
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 1: home even though they are in last place. They're only

704
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 1: a minus point eight expect a golden front at home,

705
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 1: where aston Villa has struggled on the road where they're

706
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 1: at minus four. So I do project Southampton as an

707
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 1: ever so slight favorite here. So I like Saints at home.

708
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 1: Drono bet at plus one oh five. All right, let's

709
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 1: move on to the David Moys Bowl, ever west Ham

710
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 1: hosting Everton. West Ham is sitting at minus one thirty four.

711
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:42,080
Speaker 1: Everton's sitting at plus three seventy five, with the draw

712
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 1: at plus two to seventy five. If Michael were here,

713
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 1: he'd tell us that the price on Everton is too

714
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 1: good and you have to play it. But thank god

715
00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 1: he's not, because I can't do that here. I think

716
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 1: this is one of the easiest passes on the board.

717
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 1: I do think I had if you know, I just

718
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 1: have Michael's voice in my head right now, just saying,

719
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 1: like you have bet Everton the price too good. I

720
00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 1: do think west Ham is a tat over valued here

721
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 1: at minus one thirty four, but you love another patent

722
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 1: in both teams to score with west Ham.

723
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 3: I mean, look, if the market doesn't want to adjust,

724
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 3: I will keep betting it every single week and catch

725
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 3: last week minus one oh seven, thank you very much.

726
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:23,400
Speaker 3: Both teams easily scored. Saints were so good, they scored

727
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 3: a second time and they won the match.

728
00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:29,640
Speaker 2: It's just crazy to me, what is the market? What

729
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 2: am I missing?

730
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 3: Because I know that the market is generally pretty smart,

731
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 3: you know, I trust every you know, it's very it's

732
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 3: the English Premier League. But this is a desperation home

733
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 3: spot for west Ham. Two positive aggression attacking candidates both

734
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:46,400
Speaker 3: teams to score on an Everton defense where they need

735
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 3: to chase this result and get a you know, like

736
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 3: this is an.

737
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 2: Important win for both teams. West Ham is very good.

738
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:53,959
Speaker 3: At crossing their fifth best and cross is completed averageon

739
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 3: doesn't stop crosses. Everton's conceded eleven goals their last five.

740
00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 3: Averton's attack has improved a little bit the last few matches.

741
00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 3: They've had some actually good, healthy attackers and shown some

742
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:06,960
Speaker 3: signs of life there. This all points to the over

743
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:08,840
Speaker 3: and to the both teams to score for me, and

744
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:12,240
Speaker 3: at minus one six one o five's are out there,

745
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:13,800
Speaker 3: like that's just a crazy number for me.

746
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:14,760
Speaker 2: I logged it this morning.

747
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 3: I love both teams to score here and this is

748
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 3: the fourth straight match. I bet it either the over

749
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:20,799
Speaker 3: the both teams to score on an Everton match and

750
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 3: they just keep winning, uh, and the market is not

751
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:25,239
Speaker 3: moving them at all. I would expect this to be

752
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 3: closer to minus one thirty to sort of get it

753
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:32,239
Speaker 3: at minus one oh five is very advantageous.

754
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 1: I might join you, But let's move on to the

755
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 1: twelve thirty pm Eastern Time match on Saturday. Crystal Palace

756
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 1: coming off that late draw against Manchester United hosting Newcastle.

757
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:47,400
Speaker 1: Crystal Palace sitting at plus three thirty three, Newcastle minus

758
00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 1: one ten road favorite the draw sitting at plus two forty.

759
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 1: I actually like the over in this match, but I'm

760
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,319
Speaker 1: gonna kick it to you first. What do you do

761
00:34:57,400 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 1: You think Crystal Palace can repeat the type performance they

762
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,360
Speaker 1: head against United and maybe steal a point here against Newcastle.

763
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would lean toward the under.

764
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 3: I think this is a pretty similar handicap to what

765
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:11,720
Speaker 3: we just saw today between Palace and United. Pallace sat deep,

766
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:15,480
Speaker 3: absorbed pressure. Newcastle this season in zero zero game, States

767
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 3: has not taken a lot of chances. They've been very

768
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:21,560
Speaker 3: passive and kind of have scored a bunch from them.

769
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:23,799
Speaker 3: But we kind of saw it in the Fulham match

770
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:27,279
Speaker 3: where they created in the end two expected goals, but

771
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:29,200
Speaker 3: it took them a long time to really get going,

772
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 3: and the first half was kind of dead.

773
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 2: It was a lot of bad shots.

774
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:35,279
Speaker 3: There weren't a lot of good shots taken, so I

775
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:38,279
Speaker 3: think Pallas is still pretty organized defensively. Chris Richards making

776
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:40,880
Speaker 3: his debut for the season and in the prem today,

777
00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 3: I thought he had a really strong showing.

778
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 2: And if you think about the United.

779
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:48,880
Speaker 3: Chances, they had ten shots and one point one expected

780
00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:51,879
Speaker 3: in the first half, only one real big chance which

781
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 3: was the goal, and then the second half they did nothing.

782
00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:58,439
Speaker 3: So I'm not so sure that Newcastle creates a son here.

783
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:00,799
Speaker 3: I kind of disagree with you, and I lean toward

784
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:03,600
Speaker 3: the under here because I'm also just not inspired by

785
00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:07,400
Speaker 3: this Palace attack that has looked really, really mediocre, not

786
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 3: getting any striker production, Wilf sahaz on the wrong stead

787
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 3: of thirty now and his dribbling numbers have gone down,

788
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 3: So I'm a little bit skeptical of this Palace attack

789
00:36:17,160 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 3: creating much too, so I kind of leaned strongly to

790
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 3: the under here. And it is juiced, you know, minus

791
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 3: one forty, so you know, hence the reason I'm not

792
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 3: betting it.

793
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:28,399
Speaker 2: But I do think it's a little bit.

794
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 1: Cheap hence the reason a little bit. Yeah, I like

795
00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 1: this over so and it's it's something I've said on

796
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 1: the podcast, you know, bast couple of weeks. It's just

797
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 1: that palace when they have to play good competition, they

798
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 1: have just been awful. Like today they allowed over to

799
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:44,800
Speaker 1: expected goals to United. I understand.

800
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:47,680
Speaker 2: I'm going to push back on that that. I'm not

801
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:51,279
Speaker 2: sure about that fop mob number. I think that's wrong, okay.

802
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:53,720
Speaker 3: Because they gave they gave point eight on that Casa

803
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:57,880
Speaker 3: Miro not Casimiro. It was somebody right in front of

804
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:00,319
Speaker 3: the goal had like like got a toe on the

805
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:03,720
Speaker 3: ball in stoppage time, but it wasn't really a shot,

806
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 3: but they counted it as a shot. And so this

807
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 3: is like kind of the point about single game XTGE.

808
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:09,160
Speaker 2: I wanted to make this point anyway.

809
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:12,560
Speaker 3: They gave like point seven eight XG and fot Mob

810
00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 3: and then Info Gold did too, and I was watching

811
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 3: live and I'm like, when did United get that shot off?

812
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:18,879
Speaker 3: And it was the cross into the penalty area where

813
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 3: it just kind of went through the whole box and

814
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 3: like nobody really got a shot. So I'm kind of

815
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:25,360
Speaker 3: pushing back on that number, Okay. I thought it was

816
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:28,800
Speaker 3: a little closer to like one point two, but either way.

817
00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:34,799
Speaker 1: Even before that, Anthony Palace had allowed thirteen expected goals

818
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 1: and seven matches versus the Big Six plus Newcastle and

819
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,239
Speaker 1: if you remember this match the last time against they

820
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:42,919
Speaker 1: absolutely stole a point on the road at Saint Cham's Park.

821
00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:44,960
Speaker 1: It was a zero zero jraw that ended up being

822
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 1: a very up and down type match. There were a

823
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:49,879
Speaker 1: total of three point eight expected goals created, two point

824
00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 1: eight from Newcastle one from Crystal Palace. There were thirty

825
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 1: two shots taken combined seventy penalty box touches between the

826
00:37:56,200 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 1: two sides. So now we have a Newcastle offense just

827
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 1: has continued to get better and better as the season's

828
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 1: progressed along. They have been pretty unlucky in front of

829
00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:07,439
Speaker 1: net recently, like They've scored four goals off a seven

830
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 1: point four expected in their last four Premier League matches

831
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:11,839
Speaker 1: out of the World Cup break, including two point two

832
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 1: against Fulham this past weekend. And for the season they're

833
00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:18,120
Speaker 1: averaging one point six expect goals per ninety top five

834
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:21,600
Speaker 1: and shots, big scoring chances, passing the penalty and expected threat.

835
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:24,759
Speaker 1: Oh and they just got Alexander eeshak Back who has

836
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 1: yet to play three full nineties and is already over

837
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:29,880
Speaker 1: a one x gal per ninety minutes. Striker already got

838
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:32,000
Speaker 1: three goals, so I think they're attacks only going to

839
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:35,279
Speaker 1: get better and better. And you mentioned the zero zero

840
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:38,920
Speaker 1: game state, which is very important because this over is

841
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 1: basically dependent on that first goal going in. Because Crystal

842
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:46,719
Speaker 1: Palace when they are playing from behind the season are

843
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:49,760
Speaker 1: allowing two point one to eight expect goals per ninety

844
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 1: and Newcastle when playing with lead are averaging two point

845
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:55,359
Speaker 1: two expect goals per ninety, So once that first goal

846
00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:57,320
Speaker 1: goes in, I think all hell is going to break loose.

847
00:38:57,400 --> 00:38:59,760
Speaker 1: I do project two point seven goals for this match

848
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 1: just because of the given how high Newcastle's average XG

849
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:06,400
Speaker 1: is per ninety, so I do like the value on

850
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:08,840
Speaker 1: over two and a half goals at plus one twenty.

851
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to Sunday, your second favorite team,

852
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:23,400
Speaker 1: Leeds United hosting my favorite team, Brentford. Leeds is a

853
00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:26,319
Speaker 1: plus one thirty seven home favorite Brentford sitting at plus

854
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:30,440
Speaker 1: one ninety with a draw at plus two fifty. I

855
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:33,279
Speaker 1: love Brentford here, I love them so much, but I'll

856
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:36,320
Speaker 1: let you gush about Jesse Marsh for a couple of

857
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:36,839
Speaker 1: minutes here.

858
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 2: No easy pass for me.

859
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 3: Oh, I just don't really love the spot for Brentford,

860
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:46,360
Speaker 3: but I do think Leeds had an impressive and important

861
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 3: showing in the FA Cup against Cardiff. Put five on

862
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 3: him kind of quieted the haters briefly. But most importantly

863
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:56,960
Speaker 3: Patrick Bamford scoring twice. He seems to be rounding into

864
00:39:57,000 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 3: form and that is so important for this Leads team

865
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:02,080
Speaker 3: because they have lack the finishing quality in the final

866
00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 3: third and with him fit and firing, they're a much

867
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 3: better team. But Brentford is so good at taking their

868
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:10,960
Speaker 3: taking the uh you know, little spaces and pockets and

869
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:14,160
Speaker 3: turning them into one or two or three big scoring chances,

870
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:15,799
Speaker 3: and that's what Leads gives up a lot. So it's

871
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:21,959
Speaker 3: not a great matchup for Leads, but I think they're slightly.

872
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:25,400
Speaker 2: Worse than Brentford. You're throwing home field. They're a slight favorite,

873
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 2: That's what I would make it.

874
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:29,120
Speaker 3: Uh And I don't want to bet on against or

875
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:31,319
Speaker 3: on either of these teams in this spot, So this

876
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:32,440
Speaker 3: is the easiest.

877
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:33,759
Speaker 2: Pass on the board for me.

878
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 3: No Leads, Brentford, No thanks, I'll be on the other

879
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 3: match sweating out.

880
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 2: Yeah.

881
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 1: You know, here's the biggest problem with Leads is that

882
00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 1: they really aren't effective offensively unless they are playing just

883
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:49,239
Speaker 1: super direct and then transition. Like they have the third

884
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:53,240
Speaker 1: lowest build up completion percentage of the lowest goalkick progression

885
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:55,880
Speaker 1: in the Premier League, and Leads is going to be

886
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 1: asked to control a majority of the possession and to break

887
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:01,680
Speaker 1: down Brentford's low block, which has been very effective this season.

888
00:41:01,719 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 1: Like even though the Bees they are allowing a high

889
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:05,880
Speaker 1: number of shots, a high number of passes into their

890
00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:07,800
Speaker 1: penalty area, but they are top ten and big scoring

891
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:10,640
Speaker 1: chants allowed. Their second and average shots isn't allowed and

892
00:41:10,640 --> 00:41:13,360
Speaker 1: their fifth and x cheaper shots. So and that's something

893
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:16,360
Speaker 1: that they did a really good job of against Leeds

894
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 1: until they went up three to one, and the Leeds

895
00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 1: defense it's just downright embarrassing under Jesse Marsh. I mean,

896
00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 1: they're they're at one point five to four non penalty

897
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 1: expectacles allowed for ninety They've conceded fifteen point nine expected

898
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:33,600
Speaker 1: goals in their last eight matches. They have conceded the

899
00:41:33,640 --> 00:41:36,719
Speaker 1: seventh most big scoring chances in the Premier League. They're

900
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 1: also a bottom ten team at defending set pieces, which

901
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 1: we all know is a major red flag if you're

902
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 1: gonna try and face Brentford. And the last time these

903
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 1: two teams met, Brentford absolutely pasted Leads. I don't care

904
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:49,719
Speaker 1: Anthony at the final. You'll say the final XTG was

905
00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 1: two point three to one point seven, but one point

906
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 1: three of that x G for Leeds came after Brentford

907
00:41:56,680 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 1: was already up three to one. The Bees have been

908
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:01,040
Speaker 1: on fire offense, pay out of the World Cup break

909
00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 1: six point seven expected goals in the last four Premier

910
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:08,399
Speaker 1: League matches. And you know, I guess ivan Tony's gonna

911
00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:12,280
Speaker 1: continue to play. I haven't seen anything that says otherwise,

912
00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 1: so I'm going to assume that he's going to continue

913
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 1: to be in Brentford's lineup. And like you already mentioned,

914
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 1: Brentford does such a good job at creating big scoring

915
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:23,160
Speaker 1: chances six most in the Premier League. Plus Brentford letter

916
00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:25,239
Speaker 1: rest advantage with Leeds playing the FA Cup replayer like

917
00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 1: you already mentioned on Wednesday against Cardiff, So I like Brentford.

918
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:33,680
Speaker 1: John o'batt at plus one ten, Leeds actually not that

919
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:35,760
Speaker 1: good at Ellen Road minus three expected gold of frenchal

920
00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:39,319
Speaker 1: in nine home matches, so I love, love, love the

921
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 1: beast here obviously have a managerial advantage with Thomas Frank

922
00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 1: over Jesse Marsh, so can be Brentford John Obatt at

923
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:47,719
Speaker 1: plus one ten. Let's move on to the other ten

924
00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:51,800
Speaker 1: a or nine am Eastern match on Sunday, Manchester City

925
00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:56,320
Speaker 1: hosting Wolves. Manchester City is a minus five fifty home favorite,

926
00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:58,520
Speaker 1: Wolves sitting at eleven to one with a draw at

927
00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:00,920
Speaker 1: plus seven hundred. We are both on the same side here,

928
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 1: So why don't you tell the people why City unders

929
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 1: are back?

930
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 2: But the risk of being redundant.

931
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:09,800
Speaker 3: I talked earlier about why I thought City's attack was

932
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:11,480
Speaker 3: a little bit inflated, and it's gone back to the

933
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,479
Speaker 3: beginning of the season when they were scoring goals for fun,

934
00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:16,719
Speaker 3: but the underlying numbers weren't as good. Now they haven't

935
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:18,480
Speaker 3: been scoring goals for fun. They've kind of just been

936
00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 3: scoring a couple of goals. Struggled against Everton, struggled against United.

937
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:25,680
Speaker 3: They did thrash leads, but we you know, we talked

938
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:29,280
Speaker 3: stylistically about that matchup why we didn't love it necessarily,

939
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 3: although I did bet leads so I guess I can't

940
00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:31,600
Speaker 3: say that, but.

941
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:34,840
Speaker 2: I just think that this is a little bit inflated

942
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:36,280
Speaker 2: as well. Wolves attack.

943
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:40,320
Speaker 3: I know I haven't bet a Wolves under since Vietnam,

944
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 3: but I do like it here under three and a

945
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:46,760
Speaker 3: half minus one thirty five on. I think this should

946
00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:49,960
Speaker 3: be three in a quarter three even. I just don't

947
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:54,800
Speaker 3: think City's attack is getting enough margin here. And Wolves

948
00:43:54,840 --> 00:43:57,600
Speaker 3: have improved defensively under low Patagy, and so that's enough

949
00:43:57,600 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 3: for me to kind of buy in. They've been better

950
00:44:00,520 --> 00:44:02,759
Speaker 3: out of possession, I think than they were under under

951
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:06,759
Speaker 3: loadge and they're still like the attack is just I

952
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 3: thought it was kind of symbolic that the lights went

953
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:10,799
Speaker 3: out when when the domitoria tried to cross the ball

954
00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:13,040
Speaker 3: in yesterday, because there was no way that was gonna

955
00:44:13,040 --> 00:44:13,960
Speaker 3: be a good cross anyway.

956
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:16,680
Speaker 2: So uh yeah, add the under here.

957
00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:19,160
Speaker 3: I don't want to be redundant and going to the

958
00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:20,719
Speaker 3: whole City attack thing again, but I just think it's

959
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 3: all unflated, and so I'll bet the under again.

960
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:26,359
Speaker 1: If anybody out there, you know, as it uses fp

961
00:44:26,480 --> 00:44:30,359
Speaker 1: REP as much as I do, go pull up the

962
00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:35,080
Speaker 1: shot charts from the Wolves West Ham match. It is

963
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:40,520
Speaker 1: just to a micro cosm. What Wolves attack is not

964
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:44,719
Speaker 1: under Burnal Lodge, under the little Potagy, under whoever. They

965
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:47,920
Speaker 1: created point nine off of seventeen shots. They did not

966
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:52,200
Speaker 1: register a shot with an XG rating over point one.

967
00:44:52,800 --> 00:44:56,600
Speaker 1: Twelve of their seventeen shots came from outside the box,

968
00:44:56,640 --> 00:44:59,120
Speaker 1: where they're taking forty percent of their shots on the season.

969
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:01,480
Speaker 1: They have to obviously, like we've mentioned every single week,

970
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:03,839
Speaker 1: they have one of the longest average shot distances, they

971
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:06,120
Speaker 1: have the lowest sex cheper shot. They've created the fewest

972
00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:08,839
Speaker 1: big scoring chants in the Premier League. In fact, they

973
00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:11,160
Speaker 1: haven't failed to create over one expected goal in six

974
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 1: of their last seven matches. And now they're supposed to

975
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:17,160
Speaker 1: create enough to score against the best defense in the

976
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:20,319
Speaker 1: Premier League. I don't see it at all. I mean,

977
00:45:20,440 --> 00:45:23,160
Speaker 1: you mentioned the Wolves defense it has gotten better, like

978
00:45:23,200 --> 00:45:25,560
Speaker 1: they're at one point two nine non penalty expected goals

979
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:27,839
Speaker 1: allowed or that you know, the top ten and big

980
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 1: scoring chants allowed, and like we've already mentioned, you know,

981
00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:33,319
Speaker 1: not sound redundant again that the city's offense just really

982
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:36,920
Speaker 1: isn't its best right now. They're coming in on short rest,

983
00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:38,600
Speaker 1: they're gonna slow down the pace. They're going to strangle

984
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:40,200
Speaker 1: a whole possession. Nothing really can take away from the

985
00:45:40,239 --> 00:45:43,440
Speaker 1: last match where we'll's got a red card in around

986
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:47,040
Speaker 1: the thirty fifth minute obviously change the complexity of that match.

987
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:49,680
Speaker 1: I only project two point sixty five goals for this match,

988
00:45:49,719 --> 00:45:51,880
Speaker 1: so yeah, I'm with you. I love under three and

989
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:54,080
Speaker 1: a half goals at minus one point.

990
00:45:54,920 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 2: I like betting Wolves overs when the totals two and

991
00:45:56,960 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 2: a quarter. No I bet that team. I don't like

992
00:45:59,520 --> 00:45:59,920
Speaker 2: Wolves on.

993
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 3: I like Wolves unders when it's three and a half

994
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 3: against good teams because they do a generally good job

995
00:46:04,200 --> 00:46:05,040
Speaker 3: absorbing pressure.

996
00:46:05,200 --> 00:46:06,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'm a little annoyed, and I know

997
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:09,360
Speaker 1: they created one point four expected Wolves anthony. But I

998
00:46:09,480 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 1: was out doing some you know, grocery shopping. You know,

999
00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:14,680
Speaker 1: suppose that the big snowstorm is gonna hit Iowa on Tuesday,

1000
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:15,839
Speaker 1: And I was like, you know, I just need something

1001
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:17,759
Speaker 1: while while I'm out doing this grocery shopping. So I

1002
00:46:17,800 --> 00:46:20,320
Speaker 1: just pulled up I was like, oh, Wolves in Liverpool

1003
00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:21,799
Speaker 1: playing in the FA Cup. I pulled up a little

1004
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:23,919
Speaker 1: Wolves team total. It was sitting at plus one eighty.

1005
00:46:23,960 --> 00:46:25,719
Speaker 1: I was like, all right, so I text antheum like

1006
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:29,080
Speaker 1: I'm taking a Wolves team total over and and they

1007
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:31,640
Speaker 1: just didn't score like they always do, so.

1008
00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:33,879
Speaker 2: One point what was it? One point four XG Yeah, yeah,

1009
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:35,280
Speaker 2: I mean they could have they could have easily.

1010
00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 1: Got to They could have easily gotten too, right, Yeah,

1011
00:46:37,120 --> 00:46:41,960
Speaker 1: of course, all right, But not to go on a

1012
00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:45,240
Speaker 1: big die tribe about wolves and me doing grocery shopping.

1013
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:49,600
Speaker 1: Let's move on to Monday. We have a nice London

1014
00:46:49,680 --> 00:46:54,360
Speaker 1: derby to finish out the Premier League slate Fulham hosting Tottenham.

1015
00:46:54,560 --> 00:46:56,720
Speaker 1: Full one is sitting at plus two twenty fives. Totten's

1016
00:46:56,719 --> 00:46:58,960
Speaker 1: a plus one fifteen road favorite, with the draw sitting

1017
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:02,120
Speaker 1: at plus two six. Steve, this is a great price

1018
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:05,880
Speaker 1: on top of Anthony, I agree, Actually it's a good price.

1019
00:47:06,320 --> 00:47:10,560
Speaker 3: I kind of agree. I'm waiting probably talk more. We're

1020
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:12,480
Speaker 3: gonna do a Sunday episode. I'll touch on this one

1021
00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:14,239
Speaker 3: a little bit more too. I kind of want to

1022
00:47:14,239 --> 00:47:17,280
Speaker 3: see how Spurs look at city and how the market reacts.

1023
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:20,640
Speaker 3: But the total, I thought we'd get two and three quarters.

1024
00:47:20,680 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 3: I bet the under it that number. Not at two

1025
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:25,440
Speaker 3: and a half. But yeah, plus one twenty on Spurs

1026
00:47:25,440 --> 00:47:26,680
Speaker 3: does seem a bit cheap to me.

1027
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:28,360
Speaker 2: Fulham.

1028
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:32,960
Speaker 3: I mean the amount of getting away penalties most in

1029
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:35,440
Speaker 3: the league, red cards against them most in the league.

1030
00:47:36,040 --> 00:47:38,680
Speaker 3: They finished really well, like everything you could possibly imagine

1031
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:40,040
Speaker 3: that's gone right for Fulham this year.

1032
00:47:40,200 --> 00:47:43,000
Speaker 2: Look again, I'm not complaining. I said they would be good.

1033
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:47,480
Speaker 2: They haven't been that good. They've been fine. But their

1034
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:48,319
Speaker 2: top promoted team.

1035
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 1: You're feeling good about that seventh. Yeah, they're not the

1036
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:51,439
Speaker 1: seventh best team.

1037
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:54,440
Speaker 3: They're not the Yeah they're not. And you know the

1038
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:57,560
Speaker 3: market knows that too. But ye, Tottenham is a little

1039
00:47:57,640 --> 00:47:59,920
Speaker 3: cheap here. But I want to see how they look.

1040
00:48:00,840 --> 00:48:02,520
Speaker 3: You know, I don't want any you know, We're gonna

1041
00:48:02,520 --> 00:48:05,239
Speaker 3: wait and see on that one, and I'll have more

1042
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:07,160
Speaker 3: on that on the Sunday episode. We can briefly touch

1043
00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:08,680
Speaker 3: on it before we get into the rest of the slight.

1044
00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:11,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I agree with you. I do like Tottenham here.

1045
00:48:11,200 --> 00:48:13,840
Speaker 1: I actually projected them at minds one forty, which is

1046
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:16,360
Speaker 1: to show you how crazy well that Fulham is run.

1047
00:48:17,440 --> 00:48:20,319
Speaker 1: I mean well. Fulham since the World Cup break has

1048
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:24,239
Speaker 1: allowed three goals off of seven point two expected. They're

1049
00:48:24,320 --> 00:48:26,879
Speaker 1: literally the worst defense in the Premier League, allowing one

1050
00:48:26,880 --> 00:48:31,400
Speaker 1: point seven to three xt sheep for ninety Tottenham. You know,

1051
00:48:31,480 --> 00:48:33,839
Speaker 1: Obviously they're a very good set piece offense, full of

1052
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:36,400
Speaker 1: you know, allowed the fourth most expected goals off of

1053
00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:39,319
Speaker 1: set pieces. And the last time these two teams met

1054
00:48:39,400 --> 00:48:43,080
Speaker 1: at white Hartland, Fulham was incredibly fortunate to only lose

1055
00:48:43,120 --> 00:48:45,960
Speaker 1: by one goal. Tottenham took twenty three shots, completed eighteen

1056
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:49,120
Speaker 1: passes into the penalty area, created three big scoring chances

1057
00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:51,400
Speaker 1: and two point nine expected goals, which is their largest

1058
00:48:51,400 --> 00:48:56,240
Speaker 1: expectable output in the Premier League this season. And here's

1059
00:48:56,239 --> 00:48:58,919
Speaker 1: the thing, Anthony, is that I understand that Fulham didn't

1060
00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 1: have Matrovich, which he plays a big part into their line.

1061
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:04,279
Speaker 1: But Chelsea they were sitting around what minus one ten.

1062
00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 1: You know, obviously they closed it at a pretty significant

1063
00:49:07,560 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 1: plus number, but they were opening around minus one twenty

1064
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:13,239
Speaker 1: minus one ten against Fulham. Even Manchester United, right for

1065
00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:15,520
Speaker 1: the World Cup break was minus one fifteen against Fulham.

1066
00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 1: And but now we're saying that at a fully healthy

1067
00:49:17,680 --> 00:49:20,480
Speaker 1: Tottam that has Koulisski, that Hasard Charleston, that has a

1068
00:49:20,480 --> 00:49:24,200
Speaker 1: full defense, that has a full midfield is plus one fifteen.

1069
00:49:24,400 --> 00:49:26,480
Speaker 1: It's just way way too cheap for me. So yeah,

1070
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:28,600
Speaker 1: we'll touch at a little more on Monday We'll see

1071
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:31,279
Speaker 1: how Tottenham plays against United. If they get pasted, we'll

1072
00:49:31,280 --> 00:49:33,960
Speaker 1: obviously hopefully get a better number on Tottenham here on Monday.

1073
00:49:33,960 --> 00:49:37,919
Speaker 1: But that will do it for the Premier League Slate.

1074
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:41,480
Speaker 1: Let's jaunt around Europe a little bit more. But first

1075
00:49:42,200 --> 00:49:45,200
Speaker 1: let me remind you that Wonder Goal is presented by

1076
00:49:45,239 --> 00:49:48,080
Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign

1077
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:50,400
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1078
00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:53,759
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1079
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 1: Ohio that one dollar on any game get two hundred free.

1080
00:49:58,600 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 1: Welcome back Bundesliga. German football is back and you And

1081
00:50:06,600 --> 00:50:10,240
Speaker 1: on Friday we have an absolute cracker of a match,

1082
00:50:10,320 --> 00:50:15,319
Speaker 1: Leipzig hosting Byron and you love the underdog. I do.

1083
00:50:15,360 --> 00:50:17,759
Speaker 2: I like Leipzig. I thought, you know, heading and they

1084
00:50:17,760 --> 00:50:19,320
Speaker 2: haven't played. I mean, they've played.

1085
00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:21,480
Speaker 3: You know a lot of these teams are playing friendlies

1086
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:24,080
Speaker 3: and whatnot, but I mean these teams have not played

1087
00:50:24,120 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 3: a competitive Bundesliga match and two full months, yeah, not

1088
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:28,879
Speaker 3: since you know.

1089
00:50:28,880 --> 00:50:31,520
Speaker 2: Mid November, so we're you know, we're over two months.

1090
00:50:31,520 --> 00:50:34,120
Speaker 2: So it is a little weird. But I show a.

1091
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:37,600
Speaker 3: Little bit of value on Leipzig. I make them minus

1092
00:50:37,640 --> 00:50:39,440
Speaker 3: one ten to get a result. You can find some

1093
00:50:39,560 --> 00:50:42,680
Speaker 3: even money minus one of five's out there. I will

1094
00:50:42,680 --> 00:50:44,840
Speaker 3: have a full preview for this match on the website

1095
00:50:44,920 --> 00:50:46,600
Speaker 3: and in the app. I will also be writing my

1096
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:50,120
Speaker 3: weekly Bundesliga Best Bets column. Those will both be up

1097
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:52,640
Speaker 3: on Thursday, so probably by the time you listen to this,

1098
00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:53,680
Speaker 3: maybe not Thursday night.

1099
00:50:55,160 --> 00:50:58,120
Speaker 2: I'm very excited. I'm very disappointed. Also, it's a very.

1100
00:50:57,960 --> 00:51:02,319
Speaker 3: Sad and somber day in the Bundesliga because if you've

1101
00:51:02,320 --> 00:51:05,040
Speaker 3: listened to this podcast before, you know how much I

1102
00:51:05,040 --> 00:51:06,520
Speaker 3: love god Bach and you know how much I love

1103
00:51:06,560 --> 00:51:09,200
Speaker 3: you on Sommer, and he was sold today to Bayern

1104
00:51:09,280 --> 00:51:12,960
Speaker 3: Munich for the remainder of the season, so Byron will

1105
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:16,080
Speaker 3: will be starting you on Summer. And it really takes

1106
00:51:16,080 --> 00:51:17,520
Speaker 3: the thing out of the fun of this league for

1107
00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 3: me because every year we get to bet, you know,

1108
00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:22,640
Speaker 3: glad Bock two or three times against Byron and we

1109
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:25,960
Speaker 3: get to make money because Sommer always brings his best,

1110
00:51:26,160 --> 00:51:27,160
Speaker 3: and now it won't be the same.

1111
00:51:27,200 --> 00:51:29,520
Speaker 2: I'll still do it because I'm a sicko. I'll still

1112
00:51:29,560 --> 00:51:30,200
Speaker 2: bet god Bok.

1113
00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:32,360
Speaker 3: Maybe maybe Somemer will have one of his bad games,

1114
00:51:32,440 --> 00:51:35,240
Speaker 3: but Byron will have Sommer and goal for Noyer.

1115
00:51:35,760 --> 00:51:36,880
Speaker 2: It's a little bit interesting.

1116
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 3: Sommer is not as good as his feet, as Noyer

1117
00:51:38,960 --> 00:51:41,720
Speaker 3: not as good as a sweeper. Shot stopping is pretty similar,

1118
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:44,200
Speaker 3: so it will be interesting to see how they react

1119
00:51:44,280 --> 00:51:46,360
Speaker 3: tactically because when they get into the bigger matches in

1120
00:51:46,360 --> 00:51:50,320
Speaker 3: the Champions League could get interesting. Leipzig will press a

1121
00:51:50,360 --> 00:51:52,479
Speaker 3: little bit here too, so that I could could could

1122
00:51:52,520 --> 00:51:54,600
Speaker 3: rattle the cages for the I'm guessing it's not going

1123
00:51:54,640 --> 00:51:56,120
Speaker 3: to be Summer for this, It'll be or Reich, so

1124
00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:59,279
Speaker 3: it could be interesting there too. But Leipzig have taken

1125
00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:02,200
Speaker 3: a real step forward and are the second best team

1126
00:52:02,280 --> 00:52:04,160
Speaker 3: clearly now by my numbers, So I like them plus

1127
00:52:04,160 --> 00:52:04,399
Speaker 3: a half.

1128
00:52:05,560 --> 00:52:08,719
Speaker 1: I like Freiburg drawn o Bett plus one oh five

1129
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:10,719
Speaker 1: on the road at Wolfsburg. I'm not really sure sure

1130
00:52:10,719 --> 00:52:12,440
Speaker 1: that Wolfsburg should be a favorite here, even though they

1131
00:52:12,440 --> 00:52:15,439
Speaker 1: are at home. In case you've like, like we already mentioned,

1132
00:52:15,440 --> 00:52:18,759
Speaker 1: its been two basically two months since the Bundesliga last played.

1133
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:22,480
Speaker 1: Freiberg's in second place in the Bundesliga. They do only

1134
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:24,680
Speaker 1: have a plus four point one expected gold differential, but

1135
00:52:25,960 --> 00:52:29,080
Speaker 1: Wolfsburg is a big time negative aggression team. Heading in

1136
00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:30,759
Speaker 1: the second half of the season. They're a plus four

1137
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:34,080
Speaker 1: actual goal differential with a minus five expected gold differential

1138
00:52:34,120 --> 00:52:36,640
Speaker 1: and Freiburg has they've been a good offensive team, like

1139
00:52:36,680 --> 00:52:39,640
Speaker 1: they're six and shots for ninety They've created the third

1140
00:52:39,640 --> 00:52:42,360
Speaker 1: most big scoring chances. They're a top five x G

1141
00:52:42,520 --> 00:52:44,719
Speaker 1: per set piece team, which has been a staple of

1142
00:52:44,760 --> 00:52:48,040
Speaker 1: their team for many years now, which is huge against Wolfsburg,

1143
00:52:48,080 --> 00:52:50,800
Speaker 1: who is a bottom five team at defending set pieces,

1144
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:53,520
Speaker 1: and quite frankly, the w Wolfsburg defense has been quite

1145
00:52:53,560 --> 00:52:55,520
Speaker 1: poor overall. I mean they're allowing over one and a

1146
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:57,800
Speaker 1: half expected goals for ninety their bottom five and expected

1147
00:52:57,840 --> 00:53:00,879
Speaker 1: threat and big scoring chances allowed. The flip side of that,

1148
00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:04,279
Speaker 1: Wolfsburg is an offense that just really really struggles to

1149
00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:08,040
Speaker 1: turn final third possession into any type of high quality chance.

1150
00:53:08,080 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 1: I mean they're eighth and passes in the penalty era,

1151
00:53:10,120 --> 00:53:13,600
Speaker 1: they're sixth and expected threat six and passes and progressive,

1152
00:53:13,680 --> 00:53:16,560
Speaker 1: progressiveasses and dribbles for ninety minutes, but they're turning that

1153
00:53:16,680 --> 00:53:20,640
Speaker 1: into one point one non penalty expectacles per ninety. They

1154
00:53:20,640 --> 00:53:22,640
Speaker 1: have the second fewest touches in the penalty area, the

1155
00:53:22,920 --> 00:53:24,960
Speaker 1: fourth fewest big scoring chances, and on top of that,

1156
00:53:26,280 --> 00:53:28,040
Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna win the good Golden Boote.

1157
00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:32,560
Speaker 1: Anthony Lucas metcha is Uh, who's averaging the second highest

1158
00:53:32,560 --> 00:53:35,959
Speaker 1: actually ninety for the club, is out for this match,

1159
00:53:36,080 --> 00:53:39,400
Speaker 1: so I really don't think Freiberg should be an underdog.

1160
00:53:39,440 --> 00:53:41,040
Speaker 1: I project them as a slight favorite. To like them,

1161
00:53:41,120 --> 00:53:44,759
Speaker 1: drawn O bet at plus one five. All right, let's

1162
00:53:44,880 --> 00:53:49,000
Speaker 1: move over down south to Italy and Syria. What's your

1163
00:53:49,000 --> 00:53:50,960
Speaker 1: favorite pick in Italy this weekend?

1164
00:53:51,440 --> 00:53:54,000
Speaker 3: You know it's not great betting practice to bet on

1165
00:53:54,040 --> 00:53:56,480
Speaker 3: a team that just scored eight and to bet against

1166
00:53:56,520 --> 00:53:59,640
Speaker 3: it team and just conceded five both of us.

1167
00:53:59,520 --> 00:54:00,000
Speaker 2: But I'm gonna do it.

1168
00:54:00,160 --> 00:54:02,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I already bet it anyway, So I guess I

1169
00:54:02,560 --> 00:54:06,719
Speaker 3: have to at Alanta plus a half against Uventus. Incredible

1170
00:54:06,719 --> 00:54:09,200
Speaker 3: bet regret, maybe the biggest of the entire season. I

1171
00:54:09,239 --> 00:54:13,400
Speaker 3: cursed myself every single time Napoli scored and just pummeled

1172
00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:16,480
Speaker 3: events into next month. That was so much fun, though,

1173
00:54:16,480 --> 00:54:19,720
Speaker 3: because I hate Juventus. I cringed every time they scored.

1174
00:54:20,040 --> 00:54:21,279
Speaker 3: It was just like, oh my god, I can't believe

1175
00:54:21,280 --> 00:54:24,160
Speaker 3: I didn't do this. But the decline in attacking quality

1176
00:54:24,239 --> 00:54:26,399
Speaker 3: is definitely heard at Alanta's numbers, like they're not quite

1177
00:54:26,400 --> 00:54:30,440
Speaker 3: as good in the actual penalty area. Zapata and Mariel

1178
00:54:30,480 --> 00:54:33,160
Speaker 3: and Ilchich. The golden days and the groy days are over,

1179
00:54:33,480 --> 00:54:35,560
Speaker 3: but they've really refreshed the squad really well, and the

1180
00:54:35,560 --> 00:54:39,600
Speaker 3: progression machine has continued. The ball progression machine. Second passes,

1181
00:54:39,680 --> 00:54:42,600
Speaker 3: fifth touches in the area, fourth progressive passes like they're

1182
00:54:42,680 --> 00:54:44,880
Speaker 3: very good at moving the ball into the area and

1183
00:54:45,160 --> 00:54:49,080
Speaker 3: threatening even the best defenses in this league. And Juventus

1184
00:54:49,600 --> 00:54:51,719
Speaker 3: still has regression coming even after conceding five.

1185
00:54:51,800 --> 00:54:54,800
Speaker 2: So I like these teams even throw in some home field.

1186
00:54:55,640 --> 00:54:58,279
Speaker 3: Excuse me, I make Atlanta better throwing home field. It

1187
00:54:58,320 --> 00:55:00,600
Speaker 3: gets me about even. So I'm to take the plus

1188
00:55:00,600 --> 00:55:02,400
Speaker 3: a half here on Ladea.

1189
00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:05,759
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take And then again, this is really bad

1190
00:55:05,800 --> 00:55:08,359
Speaker 1: betting practices, taking a team that just scored five going

1191
00:55:08,400 --> 00:55:10,480
Speaker 1: up against a team that just conceded eight. But I

1192
00:55:10,600 --> 00:55:13,200
Speaker 1: like Natalie seem total over two and a half against

1193
00:55:13,200 --> 00:55:18,960
Speaker 1: Salarynytana at plus one twenty. I mean, the salary ton

1194
00:55:18,960 --> 00:55:21,600
Speaker 1: of defense is completely cratered over the weekend. Like maybe,

1195
00:55:21,880 --> 00:55:25,840
Speaker 1: maybe maybe Ochoa isn't the greatest goalkeeper in the entire world.

1196
00:55:26,360 --> 00:55:26,960
Speaker 2: They'll be fine.

1197
00:55:27,360 --> 00:55:30,000
Speaker 1: It'll be fine. They'll be fine, right cause Salary Tona

1198
00:55:30,080 --> 00:55:32,719
Speaker 1: is the worst team in Syria A. But they're somehow

1199
00:55:33,040 --> 00:55:37,239
Speaker 1: going to survive relegation yet again. We're eighteen matches into

1200
00:55:37,280 --> 00:55:40,960
Speaker 1: the season. They've conceded thirty four point eight expected goals

1201
00:55:41,320 --> 00:55:43,600
Speaker 1: in five matches against the Big seven in Italy, they've

1202
00:55:43,600 --> 00:55:47,240
Speaker 1: allowed oh, they're allowing two expected goals per match. Last

1203
00:55:47,280 --> 00:55:51,600
Speaker 1: five matches they've conceded thirteen expected goals and now they're

1204
00:55:51,600 --> 00:55:55,120
Speaker 1: supposed to slow down. Honestly, one of the best offenses

1205
00:55:55,160 --> 00:55:57,399
Speaker 1: in Europe this season, I mean Aapoley's averaging over two

1206
00:55:57,400 --> 00:56:00,439
Speaker 1: expected goals per ninety minutes. They're number one inty much

1207
00:56:00,440 --> 00:56:06,239
Speaker 1: every single offensive metric in Italy and Salernitana one of

1208
00:56:06,239 --> 00:56:09,000
Speaker 1: the worst pressing teams, allows the highest opponent build up percentage,

1209
00:56:09,000 --> 00:56:11,880
Speaker 1: they have the fewest high turnovers. They're gonna provide no resistance,

1210
00:56:11,920 --> 00:56:15,759
Speaker 1: they can't defend their penalty area and Napoli once they

1211
00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:17,680
Speaker 1: get a lead, they love to pour it on like

1212
00:56:17,719 --> 00:56:20,799
Speaker 1: you saw it against Juventus. They're averaging two point zero

1213
00:56:20,880 --> 00:56:23,759
Speaker 1: five expected goals per ninety minutes when playing with the lead.

1214
00:56:23,800 --> 00:56:27,319
Speaker 1: This season Salernitana when playing from behind. I couldn't believe

1215
00:56:27,320 --> 00:56:30,000
Speaker 1: when I saw this number. Two point nine to two

1216
00:56:30,200 --> 00:56:32,960
Speaker 1: expected goals per ninety when playing from behind, so I

1217
00:56:33,040 --> 00:56:35,600
Speaker 1: project naturally at two point seven goals. So I like

1218
00:56:35,600 --> 00:56:37,920
Speaker 1: the value on their team total over two and a

1219
00:56:37,920 --> 00:56:40,520
Speaker 1: half at plus one twenty. This is terrible bet practice,

1220
00:56:40,520 --> 00:56:44,239
Speaker 1: betting practice, but I really have a deep disdain and

1221
00:56:44,280 --> 00:56:47,680
Speaker 1: hatred for this Salarytana team, So any chance I can

1222
00:56:47,800 --> 00:56:51,080
Speaker 1: to fade them, I'm gonna do it. All right, Let's

1223
00:56:51,120 --> 00:56:55,000
Speaker 1: move on to Spain. Will save my wonderful high price

1224
00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:57,799
Speaker 1: both teams to score. No for a second, what's your

1225
00:56:57,800 --> 00:56:58,720
Speaker 1: favorite bet in Spain?

1226
00:57:00,280 --> 00:57:02,480
Speaker 3: Plus one ten one to fifteen drawn o bett at

1227
00:57:02,480 --> 00:57:05,720
Speaker 3: home against Real Madrid. I make this a true coin flip,

1228
00:57:05,800 --> 00:57:07,400
Speaker 3: so I have it at even money both ways.

1229
00:57:07,680 --> 00:57:09,480
Speaker 2: It's kind of fun that rarely.

1230
00:57:09,280 --> 00:57:12,480
Speaker 3: Happens, but I'll take the plus one fifteen on a

1231
00:57:12,520 --> 00:57:14,399
Speaker 3: bet that I think is fifty to fifty to win.

1232
00:57:15,640 --> 00:57:18,600
Speaker 3: This is a top five defense in Europe four point

1233
00:57:18,680 --> 00:57:22,600
Speaker 3: six expected goals allowed in nine home matches. Real, on

1234
00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:24,600
Speaker 3: the on the other hand, away from home, has been

1235
00:57:24,680 --> 00:57:26,520
Speaker 3: really bad defensively, conceding over one.

1236
00:57:26,520 --> 00:57:27,240
Speaker 2: Xg per match.

1237
00:57:28,000 --> 00:57:31,200
Speaker 3: Bill Bow's played up in competition a few times. They

1238
00:57:31,200 --> 00:57:34,160
Speaker 3: dominated v Real at home at Letty at home, very encouraging.

1239
00:57:34,240 --> 00:57:36,560
Speaker 3: They were a little bit worse than Barsa away, which is,

1240
00:57:36,720 --> 00:57:39,880
Speaker 3: you know, relative to market expectations, right around what you'd expect.

1241
00:57:40,600 --> 00:57:44,000
Speaker 3: And so I think bill Bao is just perennially undervalued

1242
00:57:44,040 --> 00:57:45,360
Speaker 3: in the last year and a half has been the

1243
00:57:45,360 --> 00:57:48,000
Speaker 3: case since they've taken a step forward in their underlyings.

1244
00:57:48,160 --> 00:57:51,440
Speaker 3: But there's a good spot to fade Real Madrid again.

1245
00:57:52,280 --> 00:57:54,959
Speaker 2: I think that this is a you know.

1246
00:57:54,880 --> 00:57:56,840
Speaker 3: It's like a weird spot for Madrid coming off of

1247
00:57:56,920 --> 00:58:00,400
Speaker 3: a pacing last weekend in the Super Cup Spanish Cup

1248
00:58:00,440 --> 00:58:02,320
Speaker 3: against Barsa. It was a great that was a great

1249
00:58:02,360 --> 00:58:04,520
Speaker 3: Barsia spot. I think this is another great fate spot

1250
00:58:04,760 --> 00:58:05,520
Speaker 3: against Bilbolt.

1251
00:58:06,320 --> 00:58:09,200
Speaker 1: I love, you know, I don't think there's gonna be

1252
00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:12,640
Speaker 1: any better way to spend your Friday afternoon on the

1253
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:17,120
Speaker 1: island of Myorica. Both teams to score no against Celta

1254
00:58:17,200 --> 00:58:21,320
Speaker 1: Vigo at my wonderfully high price of minus one forty

1255
00:58:21,520 --> 00:58:24,560
Speaker 1: No better way to kick your kick your weekend off. Again,

1256
00:58:24,760 --> 00:58:27,520
Speaker 1: these are two top eight defensive teams in La Liga,

1257
00:58:27,600 --> 00:58:29,480
Speaker 1: and we have a very very low total sitting at

1258
00:58:29,480 --> 00:58:33,240
Speaker 1: two with the over cityc even money Myorca matches this season.

1259
00:58:33,880 --> 00:58:35,600
Speaker 1: I think this is the most low event I've ever

1260
00:58:35,680 --> 00:58:39,440
Speaker 1: seen a team, especially in Spain. One point six to

1261
00:58:39,440 --> 00:58:43,040
Speaker 1: one non penalty expectacles total between the two teams in

1262
00:58:43,120 --> 00:58:47,160
Speaker 1: Myorca matches this season. Both teams in their matches have

1263
00:58:47,240 --> 00:58:51,160
Speaker 1: created over one expected goal just twice, and both teams

1264
00:58:51,160 --> 00:58:53,320
Speaker 1: to score now is hitting their last five matches. Myorca

1265
00:58:53,360 --> 00:58:56,680
Speaker 1: does an unbelievable job at defending in and around their

1266
00:58:56,720 --> 00:59:00,360
Speaker 1: penalty era because they're basically providing no resist since for

1267
00:59:00,400 --> 00:59:02,840
Speaker 1: teams getting forward against them like they're seventeenth and progressive

1268
00:59:02,840 --> 00:59:07,000
Speaker 1: passes and dribbles allowed their second opponent build up percentage

1269
00:59:07,040 --> 00:59:09,600
Speaker 1: allowed or second highest opponent build up percentage allowed eighteen

1270
00:59:09,640 --> 00:59:12,360
Speaker 1: to pass per defensive action, but they're top ten and

1271
00:59:12,400 --> 00:59:14,600
Speaker 1: passes allowed in their penalty area, and they are allowing

1272
00:59:14,720 --> 00:59:17,560
Speaker 1: the longest average shot distance not only in Spain but

1273
00:59:17,720 --> 00:59:21,120
Speaker 1: in Europe at twenty point five yards. Cell to Vigo,

1274
00:59:21,600 --> 00:59:24,040
Speaker 1: a top ten team in expected goals per ninety but

1275
00:59:24,640 --> 00:59:27,440
Speaker 1: has the longest average shot distance in Laaliga at nineteen

1276
00:59:27,440 --> 00:59:29,840
Speaker 1: point three yards. And I've attempted the third most shots

1277
00:59:30,040 --> 00:59:33,480
Speaker 1: from outside the penalty area. On the flip side, Majorca

1278
00:59:33,680 --> 00:59:37,280
Speaker 1: is a really really bad offense. I mean point seven

1279
00:59:37,320 --> 00:59:40,120
Speaker 1: to six non penalty expected goals per ninety bottom three

1280
00:59:40,240 --> 00:59:43,160
Speaker 1: in shots per ninety, touches in the penalty area and

1281
00:59:43,280 --> 00:59:45,960
Speaker 1: progressive passes and dribbles sell to Vigle allowing only point

1282
00:59:46,000 --> 00:59:48,760
Speaker 1: nine two non penalty expected goals for ninety minutes, and

1283
00:59:49,480 --> 00:59:52,880
Speaker 1: is top three defensively in those three categories I just mentioned.

1284
00:59:52,920 --> 00:59:56,160
Speaker 1: For Majorca, I have both teams to score no projected

1285
00:59:56,160 --> 01:00:01,320
Speaker 1: at minus two fourteen, so I love value on minus one.

1286
01:00:02,680 --> 01:00:05,120
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on. We're not gonna do an

1287
01:00:05,160 --> 01:00:08,920
Speaker 1: underdog because it wouldn't feel right not having Michael here

1288
01:00:08,960 --> 01:00:10,000
Speaker 1: and not having the three of us.

1289
01:00:10,040 --> 01:00:12,840
Speaker 2: But mister Underdog himself, Underdog.

1290
01:00:12,600 --> 01:00:14,520
Speaker 1: Himself is out and we can't we just can't do

1291
01:00:14,560 --> 01:00:17,400
Speaker 1: it without him. But me and Anthony thought, we gotta,

1292
01:00:17,600 --> 01:00:19,600
Speaker 1: we got to bring one underdog for the people to

1293
01:00:19,600 --> 01:00:23,680
Speaker 1: get him through the weekend. And we landed on we're

1294
01:00:23,680 --> 01:00:26,760
Speaker 1: gonna go to the championship. West Plus.

1295
01:00:26,840 --> 01:00:30,480
Speaker 3: Just pull up the XG table table. You know why

1296
01:00:30,480 --> 01:00:32,600
Speaker 3: we're on West Brom the champion. I mean, they've had

1297
01:00:32,600 --> 01:00:37,040
Speaker 3: a historic run. Yeah, I mean Bradley, he finally fired

1298
01:00:38,480 --> 01:00:40,720
Speaker 3: Sam and it's it's turned around for them since a

1299
01:00:40,760 --> 01:00:43,840
Speaker 3: little bit like they're finally picking it up. But yeah,

1300
01:00:43,880 --> 01:00:46,520
Speaker 3: Burnley has run ridiculously hot, even though I love them

1301
01:00:46,800 --> 01:00:49,520
Speaker 3: under company, I love West Brom.

1302
01:00:49,640 --> 01:00:54,440
Speaker 1: So Burnley has a plus twenty eight actual gold differential.

1303
01:00:55,200 --> 01:00:58,960
Speaker 1: They have a plus seven points seven expected gold inferential.

1304
01:00:59,560 --> 01:01:05,680
Speaker 1: They have scored fifty three goals off of thirty four expected.

1305
01:01:05,720 --> 01:01:08,280
Speaker 1: West brom On the in their hand is third in

1306
01:01:08,320 --> 01:01:11,600
Speaker 1: the championship and expected goal differential per ninety better than Burnley.

1307
01:01:11,640 --> 01:01:14,400
Speaker 1: Last time these two teams met, it was a you know,

1308
01:01:14,640 --> 01:01:16,600
Speaker 1: the expect goals was debt even two point one to

1309
01:01:16,640 --> 01:01:20,520
Speaker 1: two point one. So we're essentially getting a plus two

1310
01:01:20,600 --> 01:01:24,240
Speaker 1: eighty price on two teams that are essentially even and

1311
01:01:24,280 --> 01:01:27,560
Speaker 1: with restaurant being a little bit better by expected goals.

1312
01:01:27,640 --> 01:01:31,640
Speaker 1: So yeah, this is and it's gonna end. It's gonna

1313
01:01:31,720 --> 01:01:35,040
Speaker 1: end very very poorly with Burnley is running way way

1314
01:01:35,160 --> 01:01:37,560
Speaker 1: too hot at the moment. I mean they have won

1315
01:01:38,440 --> 01:01:42,240
Speaker 1: five straight and nine of their last ten. Uh, It's yeah,

1316
01:01:42,400 --> 01:01:45,240
Speaker 1: this is this and the only loss came to Manchester United,

1317
01:01:45,280 --> 01:01:47,960
Speaker 1: so it's gonna They're gonna regress at some point, and

1318
01:01:48,040 --> 01:01:50,240
Speaker 1: this is gonna be the spot. So the wonder goal

1319
01:01:50,360 --> 01:01:55,320
Speaker 1: underdog Grouper of West Brom plus two eighty against Burnley.

1320
01:01:55,720 --> 01:01:58,880
Speaker 1: All right, let's finish things out with our best bets

1321
01:01:58,920 --> 01:02:01,080
Speaker 1: in the Premier League. Anthing that's your best bet in

1322
01:02:01,160 --> 01:02:02,280
Speaker 1: England this weekend.

1323
01:02:02,800 --> 01:02:05,040
Speaker 3: I've been talking for the last probably a month or

1324
01:02:05,040 --> 01:02:07,640
Speaker 3: so about this Everton defense and just how bad it is.

1325
01:02:08,080 --> 01:02:10,280
Speaker 3: They have some of the worst underlying numbers in the league.

1326
01:02:10,520 --> 01:02:13,120
Speaker 3: They're playing west Ham United. I like both teams to

1327
01:02:13,160 --> 01:02:15,680
Speaker 3: score minus one oh five in this match. West Ham

1328
01:02:15,760 --> 01:02:18,360
Speaker 3: is desperate, they are David Moyes on the verge of

1329
01:02:18,360 --> 01:02:20,400
Speaker 3: losing his job if they don't get a good result here,

1330
01:02:20,440 --> 01:02:21,800
Speaker 3: so you have to expect that.

1331
01:02:21,800 --> 01:02:22,520
Speaker 2: They're going to push.

1332
01:02:22,560 --> 01:02:24,880
Speaker 3: But they also haven't been that bad. I mean, they're

1333
01:02:24,920 --> 01:02:26,760
Speaker 3: finishing has been really poor. They've had a really rough

1334
01:02:26,800 --> 01:02:30,720
Speaker 3: spell when it comes to variants, but the underlying numbers

1335
01:02:30,720 --> 01:02:32,680
Speaker 3: aren't quite as bad as the actual so you do

1336
01:02:32,720 --> 01:02:35,800
Speaker 3: expect some positive regression for west Ham's attack. And Everton's

1337
01:02:35,840 --> 01:02:39,800
Speaker 3: defense doesn't stop crosses. They're dead last stopping crosses, whereas

1338
01:02:39,800 --> 01:02:42,640
Speaker 3: west Ham should find success from the wide areas. Get

1339
01:02:42,640 --> 01:02:45,360
Speaker 3: at this defense once they do score, Everton will need

1340
01:02:45,400 --> 01:02:47,600
Speaker 3: to come back. They've actually been decent in attack in

1341
01:02:47,600 --> 01:02:50,560
Speaker 3: the last month, scoring goals in almost every game, but

1342
01:02:50,640 --> 01:02:51,840
Speaker 3: again it's been that defense.

1343
01:02:51,960 --> 01:02:52,760
Speaker 2: It's been terrible.

1344
01:02:52,800 --> 01:02:54,840
Speaker 3: So I do like the both teams to score here.

1345
01:02:55,160 --> 01:02:57,880
Speaker 3: It's a relegation six pointers, so you think it'd be kgier.

1346
01:02:58,040 --> 01:03:00,920
Speaker 3: Market's just not pricing in this Everton defense. Like the

1347
01:03:01,040 --> 01:03:01,800
Speaker 3: both teams to score.

1348
01:03:01,880 --> 01:03:03,680
Speaker 2: Yes, I love.

1349
01:03:04,000 --> 01:03:06,760
Speaker 1: Brentford drown ob Bett plus one ten on the road

1350
01:03:06,840 --> 01:03:10,720
Speaker 1: against Leeds. The Leeds offense this season really is only

1351
01:03:10,760 --> 01:03:13,440
Speaker 1: effective when they're being very direct and in transition, and

1352
01:03:13,480 --> 01:03:15,360
Speaker 1: this is gonna be a type of match where Brentford's

1353
01:03:15,400 --> 01:03:17,439
Speaker 1: going to sit in the low block and force Leads

1354
01:03:17,440 --> 01:03:19,360
Speaker 1: to have the ball and to break them down. I mean,

1355
01:03:19,480 --> 01:03:22,840
Speaker 1: Leeds has the lowest build up percentage in the in

1356
01:03:22,880 --> 01:03:26,040
Speaker 1: the Premier League. They are they were very very good

1357
01:03:26,120 --> 01:03:28,840
Speaker 1: against aston Villa. They created two point four expected goals,

1358
01:03:28,920 --> 01:03:33,040
Speaker 1: but they only had three ten plus pass sequences. They

1359
01:03:33,080 --> 01:03:36,480
Speaker 1: had a sixty eight percent build up completion percentage, So

1360
01:03:36,840 --> 01:03:39,320
Speaker 1: I have major major questions about their offense trying to

1361
01:03:39,320 --> 01:03:42,240
Speaker 1: break down Brentford's low block, which has been very good

1362
01:03:42,320 --> 01:03:44,840
Speaker 1: this season. They're allowing the second longest average shot distance

1363
01:03:44,880 --> 01:03:46,920
Speaker 1: in the Premier League. The flip side of it is

1364
01:03:47,000 --> 01:03:50,080
Speaker 1: Leeds defense has been just downright embarrassing under Jesse Marsh.

1365
01:03:50,080 --> 01:03:52,320
Speaker 1: They're allowing one point five to four non penalty expected

1366
01:03:52,360 --> 01:03:55,600
Speaker 1: goals per ninety minutes. They've allowed fifteen point nine expected

1367
01:03:55,640 --> 01:03:59,560
Speaker 1: goals in their last nine matches and they they were

1368
01:03:59,560 --> 01:04:02,240
Speaker 1: allowing this seventh most big scoring chances in the Premier League.

1369
01:04:02,240 --> 01:04:05,160
Speaker 1: And when these two met the last time, Brentford absolutely

1370
01:04:05,160 --> 01:04:07,360
Speaker 1: pasted them at the Brentford Community Stadium. They created two

1371
01:04:07,360 --> 01:04:10,800
Speaker 1: point three expected goals. Leeds did nothing in the entire

1372
01:04:10,840 --> 01:04:12,720
Speaker 1: first half and then they created one point three expected

1373
01:04:12,760 --> 01:04:15,480
Speaker 1: goals after Brentford was already up three to one. This

1374
01:04:15,560 --> 01:04:18,760
Speaker 1: is also a good advantage rest spot here for Brentford

1375
01:04:18,760 --> 01:04:20,960
Speaker 1: with Leeds playing on Wednesday against Cardiff in the FA

1376
01:04:21,040 --> 01:04:23,240
Speaker 1: Cup and Leeds just really hasn't been that good at

1377
01:04:23,240 --> 01:04:25,520
Speaker 1: home at Ellen Road, where they have a minus three

1378
01:04:25,600 --> 01:04:28,120
Speaker 1: expected gold of French all while Brentford doesn't have the

1379
01:04:28,320 --> 01:04:30,800
Speaker 1: drastic home and road splits like they did last season

1380
01:04:30,840 --> 01:04:33,160
Speaker 1: in the Premier League. So I love the Bees. John

1381
01:04:33,200 --> 01:04:36,120
Speaker 1: o'bett at plus one ten, All right, that I'll do

1382
01:04:36,160 --> 01:04:37,920
Speaker 1: it for this episode of Wonder Goal. Thank you all

1383
01:04:37,960 --> 01:04:40,680
Speaker 1: for listening. We will Michael Eaboff will be back in

1384
01:04:40,720 --> 01:04:43,040
Speaker 1: the host chair on Monday. We also have an interview

1385
01:04:43,080 --> 01:04:45,880
Speaker 1: with Eric Brnalda talking a little Premier League and things

1386
01:04:45,880 --> 01:04:48,080
Speaker 1: with the United States men's national team. So good luck

1387
01:04:48,120 --> 01:04:50,400
Speaker 1: with everybody with your soccer wagers and we'll see you

1388
01:04:50,440 --> 01:04:53,320
Speaker 1: on Mondays.

1389
01:04:56,160 --> 01:05:00,680
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1390
01:05:00,720 --> 01:05:03,480
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1391
01:05:03,520 --> 01:05:06,600
Speaker 3: available twenty four seven at one eight hundred Gambler