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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just mop that action, all right. Here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing, so I'm sitting up to cash touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money, all right. It is just

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Speaker 2: the ultimate kabarity you want to pull. And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: What is up everybody?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I

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Speaker 1: am your host, Chris Raybond. It's NFL Week ten. It's

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Speaker 1: time for some anytime touchdowns for every game on the flate.

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Speaker 1: As always, I'll be joined momentarily by one of the

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Speaker 1: most accurate rankers in the game and Sean Kerner and

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Speaker 1: touchdown betting savant Jill Gallant. Last week the Guy's hit

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Speaker 1: on a Bunch as the Keys sa Jmo, Juwon, Jennings Bowers,

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Speaker 1: Ty Johnson, Elijah Royal. So today we'll keep it going

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Speaker 1: in week ten, and we'll also get some parlays set

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Speaker 1: up for Sunday and Monday Night Football, our favorite Sunday

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Speaker 1: play as well. You can track those in the Parlay

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Speaker 1: Express account in the Action Network at make sure you

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Speaker 1: follow that if that account, if you want to track

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Speaker 1: and if you want to tail some of the bets,

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Speaker 1: just for the quick slip link in the podcast and

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Speaker 1: video description or go to actionnetwork dot com slash bet. Now,

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Speaker 1: before we get into these touchdowns, I'll toss it over

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Speaker 1: to myself for a word from our sponsor. The Action

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Speaker 1: Network podcast is sponsored by Draft Kings sportsbook and in

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Speaker 2: If your bet wins, the crown is yours. All right?

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Speaker 1: Starting off early again, we got to reprieve from some

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Speaker 1: of these international games, but Kerner, we're back at it.

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Speaker 1: So I'm assuming you're gonna give us a guy who's

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Speaker 1: gonna score the first touchdown. So who you got for

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Speaker 1: Falcons Colts in Germany.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll try my best here, and yeah, I can't

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Speaker 3: wait to be sweating these before Action Playbook live Sunday morning,

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Speaker 3: bright and early on the West Coast with you Ray Bond.

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Speaker 3: But I'm gonna go with Alec Pierce for the Colts

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Speaker 3: at plus two seventy just because his stock just continues

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Speaker 3: to shoot up and he's always had, you know, a

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Speaker 3: ton of upside as a downfield target, so I was

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Speaker 3: always curious, you know, how his chemistry would be with

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Speaker 3: Dale Jones. And he's still getting targeted heavily downfield. Twenty

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Speaker 3: four percent of his targets have been downfield, which is

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Speaker 3: the seventh highest straight in the league. But he's also

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Speaker 3: had a much higher floor this year as well. He's

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Speaker 3: now seen four more catches in for the last six games,

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Speaker 3: but he has yet to score a touchdown this year.

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Speaker 3: So I think the market's you know, probably starting to

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Speaker 3: sour on him a little bit, but I think I

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Speaker 3: think he's extremely due, and you know, it's crazy that

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Speaker 3: he doesn't have a touchdown, just considering how high scoring

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Speaker 3: and how good this Colts offense has been. So I'm

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Speaker 3: I'm projecting him closer to plus two to twenty here,

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Speaker 3: so I think we have some value on him at

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Speaker 3: plus two seventy. And for the Falcons, I'm going to

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Speaker 3: go with another guy who's yet to score this year,

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Speaker 3: Darnell Mooney at plus three sixty. You know, he hasn't

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Speaker 3: scored this year, but he did miss you know, a

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Speaker 3: couple of games due to injury, and you know, maybe

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Speaker 3: it wasn't one hundred percent as soon as he returned,

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Speaker 3: but you know, he still has big playability and this

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Speaker 3: could be a high scoring game where the Falcons will

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Speaker 3: probably have to throw more try to keep up with

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Speaker 3: the Colts and be more aggressive. So that kind of

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Speaker 3: fits right in what Mooney does best. So I like

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Speaker 3: Mooney here as well at plus three sixty.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and judging by Jill, I think you're gonna keep

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Speaker 1: it going. It's former Falcons, but this is the Giants

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Speaker 1: and the Bears. But I think you like some former Falcons.

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Speaker 1: Tell us he like for this New York Chicago matchup.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I gave him last week against the

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Speaker 4: Bengals and scored his first touchdown of the season, so

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Speaker 4: we're running them back. Olimti's the Kias, especially when he's

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Speaker 4: around plus four twenty five right now, So I feel

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Speaker 4: like we got to run it back at that price.

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Speaker 4: Over the last two games, just been a complete shift

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Speaker 4: on how they're using them. Fifteen targets over the last

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Speaker 4: two games, three red zone targets based on the Giants,

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Speaker 4: who do play a lot of man coverage, a lot

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Speaker 4: of single high safety. Both of the top five rate

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Speaker 4: was the Kias behind Roma Doonsay. Now Romadonsay is around

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Speaker 4: plus one fifty, but it's more than Dj Moore, more

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Speaker 4: than Luther Burdon. He has the second highest targets per

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Speaker 4: route run against those coverages. And the Giants they've given

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Speaker 4: up eight passing touchdowns just over the last three games.

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Speaker 4: I feel like they're kind of falling apart here their

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Speaker 4: bottom five and targets catches and yards to wide receivers.

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Speaker 4: So I think we run back to Zakias here in

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Speaker 4: this spot. Anything over four to one, I love that

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Speaker 4: price this one, though, Giants have a lot of Cardio

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Speaker 4: King picks on this. On the side, you could look

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Speaker 4: at Darius Slayton. I'm going to take on the latest

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Speaker 4: one which is Ray Ray McCloud at plus seven to fifty.

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Speaker 4: He played over ninety percent of snaps last week, very

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Speaker 4: high route participation. He only saw one target and no catches.

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Speaker 4: And looking at this Giants wide receiver room, it's pretty barren.

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Speaker 4: Even little Jordan Humphrey was getting action for them for

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Speaker 4: a couple of games.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 4: So the Bears, they've given up the second most touchdowns

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Speaker 4: to wide receivers this year, third most passing touchdowns overall.

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Speaker 4: I think we just take a flyer on McLoud. He's

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Speaker 4: playing as much as Wandale Robinson and Darius Slayton. Those

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Speaker 4: guys are around like plus two to fifty plus three hundred.

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Speaker 4: Let's just take the wide receiver three.

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Speaker 1: Oh man, and you you called out thing Terry last

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Speaker 1: week and he didn't end up hitting on a touchdown,

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Speaker 1: but that was a good call on just you know,

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Speaker 1: just being that number two back, he was undervalued. I

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Speaker 1: think if McLeod gets that type of route rate, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's you know, he would be super undervalued in this spot.

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Speaker 2: Bill's Dolphins in Miami.

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Speaker 1: For the Bills, I'm going with James Cook two plus

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Speaker 1: touchdowns at plus two ninety. Now he's already done this

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Speaker 1: twice this year in eight games, about twenty five percent

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Speaker 1: of the times. And this Dolphins run defense not very good.

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Speaker 1: This Dolphin defense not very good period. But that's good

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Speaker 1: for the Bills. That means they'll be leading. I don't

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Speaker 1: think this is as much of a Josh Allen scramble game,

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Speaker 1: you know, a Josh Allen run game. He tends to

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Speaker 1: do that a lot against a team like the Chiefs,

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Speaker 1: you know, playoff atmosphere. But in this spot, I think

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Speaker 1: they go back to cook here and I think he

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Speaker 1: gets back in the touchdown column with a couple, and

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Speaker 1: then Ali Gordon the second assuming he suits up. If

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Speaker 1: he doesn't, I would pivot to Jalen Wright, who will

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Speaker 1: probably be active and as a number two running back.

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Speaker 1: But the Bills really aren't giving up anything through the air.

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Speaker 1: We've it's seven passing touchdowns and they've given up ten

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Speaker 1: to running backs on the ground. So you want running

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Speaker 1: backs to devon h N he's minus one thirty five.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if the Dolphins get to two touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go with the the backup running back

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Speaker 1: who has been mixing in, you know, in the red

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Speaker 1: zone in scoring position and you also have some outs

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Speaker 1: if there's a blowout or whatnot, and right is inactive.

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Speaker 1: Because Gordon's active, he would kind of get that mop

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Speaker 1: up duty and would have a chance there. So like

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Speaker 1: Gordon at five to one as well Saints Panthers. I

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Speaker 1: mean this all of a sudden could be a blowout too.

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Speaker 1: You know, this Saints team has just been looking listless,

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Speaker 1: but maybe there's gonna be some changes with the trades. So, Kernent,

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Speaker 1: who do you like in Saints Panthers divisional matchup?

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Speaker 3: Like is a strong word because you know, the Saints

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Speaker 3: have the second lowest team toll of the week. So

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Speaker 3: if I have to go with somebody, it's take some

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Speaker 3: Hill here plus three nineties. Ji'll like plus three ninety.

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Speaker 3: Just curious, like, how you know how high is odds

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Speaker 3: normally are? This seems pretty high for Taysom Hill, especially

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Speaker 3: because you know last week he saw the highest snap

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Speaker 3: count of the year and his most productive game on

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Speaker 3: the ground. He had thirty rushing yards. And you know

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Speaker 3: the Saints' offensive line is decimated. McCoy on ir they

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Speaker 3: traded Penny away. Thwaga is doubtful, So it would make

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Speaker 3: a ton of sense to kind of get Hill back

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Speaker 3: there to kind of have a spark and the run game,

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Speaker 3: possibly especially once they get to the red zone. So

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Speaker 3: you know, gimme Taysom Hill at plus three to ninety.

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Speaker 3: And on the other side, I'm gonna have to go

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Speaker 3: with a dart throw here Mitchell Evans at sixteen to one.

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Speaker 3: You know, Evans is a solid tight end prospect despite

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Speaker 3: going in the fifth round. But as we've seen, this

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Speaker 3: year's tight end class is like historically good, so he's

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Speaker 3: obviously going to be overlooked in this year's class, but

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Speaker 3: you know, he's out there a ton for a number

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Speaker 3: three tight end. You know, he's typically running around on

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Speaker 3: thirty to forty percent sometime of Bryce Young's dropbacks, and

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Speaker 3: he does profile as a tight end who would be

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Speaker 3: you know, solid in the red zone specifically. And he

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Speaker 3: has a touchdown the season already. And he's fifteen to

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Speaker 3: one so or sixteen to one right now. So I

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Speaker 3: like his odds here and I'm actually projecting him closer

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Speaker 3: to plus nine hundred, so I'm showing quite a bit

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Speaker 3: of value on him.

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Speaker 4: Curner, I was going to tell you I tracked all

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Speaker 4: the Draftking anytime touchdown odds and this would be the

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Speaker 4: highest odds of the season for Taysom Hill. Last week

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Speaker 4: it was the highest at plus three ten. Three to

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Speaker 4: ninety is the highest that we've had so far this season.

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Speaker 2: Nice, he's got a score.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's just it's just like every week

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Speaker 1: you think it's going to happen, and it's like he

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Speaker 1: gets three carries. But this week, you know, trade deadline passed.

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Speaker 1: Something weird is going to happen in this game.

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Speaker 2: I know it. I just know it.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of weird, Brown's at Jets. Uh, this game might

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Speaker 1: be a lot of fun, might not be any fun.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna roll with Cedric Tillman for the Browns plus

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Speaker 1: four fifty.

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Speaker 2: He should be back.

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Speaker 1: It sounds like, you know, he's practicing in full. Kevin

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Speaker 1: Stefanse he kind of said, as long as he looks

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Speaker 1: good in practice, we expect to activate him. So obviously,

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Speaker 1: you know, check the inactivist and you know the transactions

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Speaker 1: on Friday. But assuming he's active, I think he'll spot

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Speaker 1: right back into that number two role. Isaiah Bond banged

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Speaker 1: up anyway, Judy's been unproductive, so you know, Tilman could

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Speaker 1: return to being the number one receiver. Wide receiver, I

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Speaker 1: should say for the Cleveland Browns. But assuming he's a

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Speaker 1: number two, I think that sets up really well because

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Speaker 1: the Jets, you know, they're terrible against number two receivers,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of that was you know, Sauce Gardner

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Speaker 1: and he's no longer there, So I just think they're

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Speaker 1: gonna be bad against outside receivers in general. But the

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Speaker 1: DVLA against number two wide receiver twos thirty five point

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Speaker 1: five percent, thirty first in the NFL according to FTN.

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Speaker 1: So just a spot where you know, Dylan Gabriel hasn't

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Speaker 1: gotten much going, most of it has been to the

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Speaker 1: tight ends. But this is a matchup where I think

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Speaker 1: you could see the Browns get something going on the

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Speaker 1: outside a little more, just because of you know, the

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Speaker 1: trade of Sauce and the Jet scheme, and the other

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Speaker 1: side looks like Garrett Wilson's gonna return. I don't know

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Speaker 1: who the hell else is gonna be running routes for

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Speaker 1: the Jets aft at wide receiver. You know, we know,

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Speaker 1: we know, yeah, so yeah, I know, I know you're

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Speaker 1: talking about John Metchi. Yeah a mitell John Metchi are

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Speaker 1: there now. But I don't know who's going to be

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Speaker 1: active and inactive, and that's saying something because usually I

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Speaker 1: can have a pretty good feel for it. So, uh,

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Speaker 1: there's like seven or eight possibilities. Wilson is the only

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Speaker 1: guy I think you can be confident in, and you

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Speaker 1: know Breest Hall as well, but who knows with him,

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Speaker 1: and his odds are are higher, are shorter, So I

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Speaker 1: want some Wilson in this spot at plus two forty.

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Speaker 2: I think that's kind of insane.

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Speaker 1: Given that the Browns are going to play man covers,

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Speaker 1: they are going to play some single high, so Wilson

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Speaker 1: should still get opportunities singled up, even though it's quality

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Speaker 1: coverage against his Browns team, and they have been exploitable

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Speaker 1: through the air at times. You know, ten receiving touchdowns

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Speaker 1: to opposing wide outs. That is tied for the sixth

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Speaker 1: most in the NFL. And you wouldn't think that because

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Speaker 1: the Browns have generally played good defense. But you know

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Speaker 1: that it's just their kind of scheme. It's man heavy.

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Speaker 1: They'll take some risks. So like Wilson to return and score,

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Speaker 1: and like Tilman to return and score a lot of

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Speaker 1: times when guys come off injuries or layoffs or whatever,

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Speaker 1: that's when they're the most undervalue because the market isn't

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Speaker 1: like a factoring in like one hundred percent, you know,

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Speaker 1: route rate or whatever it might be that they could

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Speaker 1: potentially get. So like Tilman and Wilson, Jill got the

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Speaker 1: Jags at the text as another divisional matchup.

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Speaker 2: Who you're looking at.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I just wanted to also mention about that Cleveland defense.

258
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Speaker 4: They do not travel. If you look at their home

259
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Speaker 4: and away splits this year, it's just been brutal for them.

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Speaker 4: So I really like that Garrett Wilson pick for Jaguars Texans.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with a tight end on each side.

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Speaker 4: Dalton Schultz is right now, he's around plus three hundred.

263
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Speaker 4: I hate using the expression he's due, but this guy,

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Speaker 4: it applies to him probably the most. He's running the

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Speaker 4: second most route's second highest target share for the Texans,

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Speaker 4: despite no touchdowns yet this year, behind Nico Collins. Davis

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Speaker 4: Mills is starting. I think that actually should give Schultz

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Speaker 4: a little bit of a target uptick, just being a

269
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Speaker 4: little bit of a security blanket over the middle shorter

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Speaker 4: a dot. Jags defense is twenty fifth in defensive dv

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Speaker 4: WA versus tight ends eight touchdowns allowed to the position.

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Speaker 4: So I like Dalton Schultz here the next guy, though,

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Speaker 4: I want to get a little crazy, because you would

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Speaker 4: think Hunter Long is probably the guy that you would

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Speaker 4: want in this spot. I think we got we gotta

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Speaker 4: take Johnny mount here at eleven to one because since

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Speaker 4: the Breton Strange injury, like, he obviously hasn't seen a

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Speaker 4: ton of targets, but he has technically a higher targets

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Speaker 4: per route run than the starter Hunter Long in that

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Speaker 4: stretch he has more catches and targets overall as well

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Speaker 4: versus his own defenses than what Long has. In the Texans,

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Speaker 4: they play zone third highest rate and low key been

283
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Speaker 4: kind of crappy against tight ends eight touchdowns and tight

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Speaker 4: ends as well. So we've seen in his time with

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Speaker 4: the Vikings that he could be kind of a sneaky

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Speaker 4: touchdown score six touchdowns in three seasons with Minnesota. So

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Speaker 4: I think if you want to take Hunter Long here

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Speaker 4: at four to one, I totally get it, But his

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Speaker 4: backup should not be eleven to one in a favorable

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Speaker 4: matchup in my opinion. So Dalton Schultz at three to

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Speaker 4: one and Johnny Munt at eleven to one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And I like that situation you've kind of emuted to.

293
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Speaker 1: It is if you look at the receivers, I mean,

294
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Speaker 1: who knows who's going to play how many snaps? But

295
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Speaker 1: at tight end it's like this two man rotation. So

296
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Speaker 1: you kind of have this predictability even in the chaos.

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Speaker 1: So I like that call there, Patriots Bucks Kerner, I

298
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Speaker 1: a rare early week over bet for me on this game.

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Speaker 2: So I do I do at scoring here?

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Speaker 1: Who are you looking at as far as touchdowns on

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Speaker 1: each side?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So for the Patriots side, I'm going to go

303
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Speaker 3: to Mario Pop Douglas at plus two fifty because you

304
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Speaker 3: know he's been going off these past.

305
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Speaker 2: You know, a few weeks.

306
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Speaker 3: It's had a few long catches really, you know, developing

307
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Speaker 3: solid chemistry with Drake May, who's you know, becoming of

308
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Speaker 3: the best qbs in the league. So he had four

309
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Speaker 3: catches hundred yards and a touchdown last week. And it

310
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Speaker 3: looks like Keyshawn Booty is treading towards missing with a

311
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Speaker 3: Hamstree injury, and well it looks like, you know, my

312
00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:34,800
Speaker 3: guy Kyle Williams might see the biggest uptick in playing

313
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Speaker 3: time if Booty's out. You know, Douglas probably earned himself

314
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Speaker 3: more playing time. He's been really limited just running a

315
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Speaker 3: route like, you know, thirty five percent of the time.

316
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Speaker 3: But last week, you know, he only ran thirteen routes,

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Speaker 3: but he was the first read on a team high

318
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Speaker 3: six of them. So you know, he's clearly May's one

319
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Speaker 3: of May's favorite targets. So I expect his playing time

320
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Speaker 3: to go up, and you know, the usage to hold.

321
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Speaker 3: So I like him here, even all the way down

322
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Speaker 3: to plus two fifty. Maybe wait and see if Booty's

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Speaker 3: actually ruled out before taking that, because I think they're

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Speaker 3: just pricing in that Booty's out with that price, So

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Speaker 3: I hold off on that till later in the week,

326
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Speaker 3: and then on the buck side, I'm going to go

327
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Speaker 3: with Baker Mayfield at plus eight hundred here. Baker's got

328
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Speaker 3: to score a touchdown this year with his legs, and

329
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Speaker 3: he's now on six straight seasons with a rushing touchdown.

330
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Speaker 3: You know, a lot of those seasons he only played

331
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Speaker 3: a few games, so and last year he had three

332
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Speaker 3: rushing scores. Always willing to scramble, always, you know, willing

333
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Speaker 3: to put his body on the line when needed, So

334
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Speaker 3: you know, I think he's due to get a score here.

335
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Speaker 3: In the second half of the season. You know, the

336
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Speaker 3: Bucks are coming off of bye, so he's probably as

337
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Speaker 3: fresh as he's felt since, you know, opening a week. So,

338
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Speaker 3: you know, I think getting Baker Mayfield at plus eight

339
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Speaker 3: hundred here is offering some decent value.

340
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Speaker 1: Yeah, and give him the Patriots scheme man, the fact

341
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Speaker 1: that you don't expect the Bucks to have a lot

342
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Speaker 1: of success with their traditional run game. You know, Patriots

343
00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:07,840
Speaker 1: have been good against the run, bad against the pass. Yeah,

344
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Speaker 1: I think the odds are definitely elevated for Baker in

345
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Speaker 1: this spot. Next that we got Ravens at Vikings for

346
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Speaker 1: the Ravens love Isaiah Likely at plus two eighty five.

347
00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:22,240
Speaker 1: He has a seventy one percent route rate over the

348
00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:24,359
Speaker 1: last three games. Kind of been under the radar a

349
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Speaker 1: little bit, you know, Andrews doubled up in touchdowns on

350
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Speaker 1: that Thursday night game, but like we seeing just a

351
00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:34,639
Speaker 1: ton of action and he you know, Andrews was a

352
00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:37,520
Speaker 1: trade candidate. So I think either way, like we could

353
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Speaker 1: potentially see an uptick gear, especially coming off you know

354
00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:45,040
Speaker 1: the long extended rest and the Minnesota Vikings have been

355
00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:48,040
Speaker 1: exploitable with tight ends. You know, they they run that

356
00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:50,479
Speaker 1: scheme They're gonna take a lot of their you know,

357
00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:54,159
Speaker 1: second level players out of coverage and zones and you know,

358
00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:57,480
Speaker 1: go blitz with them, and that can create openings. And

359
00:17:57,680 --> 00:17:59,480
Speaker 1: likely a guy who could do it after the catch,

360
00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:01,560
Speaker 1: he can get downfield in a hurry, so a lot

361
00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:04,600
Speaker 1: of different ways for him to score. And then for

362
00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:08,439
Speaker 1: the Vikings, I think you gotta go with a back

363
00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:12,320
Speaker 1: or a tight end. The Ravens have kind of really

364
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Speaker 1: shut down receivers from a touchdown perspective over the last

365
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Speaker 1: half of the year. You know, first half they were horrible,

366
00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:20,680
Speaker 1: but I believe they haven't given up a touchdown to

367
00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:25,359
Speaker 1: a wide receiver since Week five. So I want a

368
00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:28,520
Speaker 1: you know, a backer, tight end. You know, Minnesota Aaron

369
00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:30,399
Speaker 1: Jones is kind of the guy you would look at

370
00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:32,919
Speaker 1: it running back, maybe Xavier Scott if he's out, But

371
00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:37,480
Speaker 1: I think Hockinson is a guy who still is underperforming.

372
00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:40,040
Speaker 1: They're probably going to try to get him going at

373
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Speaker 1: some point. I know, you got in the end zone

374
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Speaker 1: last game, I believe it was, but had like two catches,

375
00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:47,639
Speaker 1: didn't do anything else. So I think Cockinson in a

376
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:51,160
Speaker 1: potential trailing game script, he's not going to block much

377
00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:55,600
Speaker 1: love him at three to one here with the Ravens

378
00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:58,240
Speaker 1: potentially putting up a lot of points early. They're great

379
00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:00,359
Speaker 1: in the first half, so it's could be a trailing

380
00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:03,360
Speaker 1: game script for the Vikings. So like Hockinson at three

381
00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:11,360
Speaker 1: to one along and likely Jill cards Seahawks, and this

382
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:14,359
Speaker 1: was the game if I remember correctly the first matchup

383
00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:17,080
Speaker 1: where JSN was kind of quiet for a while.

384
00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:19,040
Speaker 2: But who are you.

385
00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:22,720
Speaker 1: Looking at on this one? Are looking at the wide receivers.

386
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 1: You're going with tight ends against these zone heavy defenses.

387
00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:26,640
Speaker 2: Where are we doing? Yeah?

388
00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:28,720
Speaker 4: I don't think I bet Jackson Smith the JIGBA for

389
00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:32,600
Speaker 4: at any time touchdown yet this season. I just there's

390
00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:35,800
Speaker 4: no value to me at this point. But the value

391
00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:37,960
Speaker 4: to me is on Trey McBride at plus two ten.

392
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:40,480
Speaker 4: I think with Jacobe Prissett a quarterback, anything over plus

393
00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:42,679
Speaker 4: two hundred is an auto bet for me. For Trey McBride,

394
00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:46,160
Speaker 4: I think he's playing at an elite level right now.

395
00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:49,440
Speaker 4: In three games with Persett as a starter, thirty two targets,

396
00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:53,280
Speaker 4: four end zone targets, four touchdowns. I'm not gonna deny

397
00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:55,520
Speaker 4: the Seahawks are a bit of a challenge defensively, but

398
00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:58,639
Speaker 4: I just think McBride is playing on another level right now,

399
00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:01,479
Speaker 4: and the Seahawks pretty predictable. They do play a lot

400
00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:03,520
Speaker 4: of zone, a lot of two high safety, both at

401
00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:06,440
Speaker 4: a top three rate. Well, Drey McBride is the guy

402
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:08,720
Speaker 4: against both of those coverages. He leads the team in

403
00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:10,960
Speaker 4: targets per rout run and yards per out run against

404
00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:13,080
Speaker 4: both of those coverages. So I think Trey McBride is

405
00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:15,760
Speaker 4: probably my favorite touchdown bet of the week. This one, though,

406
00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:17,600
Speaker 4: is a little bit of a Kerner special because he

407
00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:20,679
Speaker 4: got me onto this guy last week Elijah Arroyo at

408
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:22,400
Speaker 4: plus four to twenty five. We got him at plus

409
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:24,280
Speaker 4: five to fifty last week Kerner, and he scored his

410
00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,919
Speaker 4: first touchdown, So I'm running it back because he's second

411
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:29,800
Speaker 4: on the team with five red zone targets. The only

412
00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 4: reason he doesn't have six is because he scored a

413
00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:35,120
Speaker 4: twenty two yard touchdown just outside the red zone, and

414
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:37,560
Speaker 4: the Seahawks, they have shown they tend to go away

415
00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:39,639
Speaker 4: from Jackson Smith to Jig but when they get to

416
00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:42,359
Speaker 4: the red zone. He only has four red zone targets

417
00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:45,119
Speaker 4: despite what like a forty five percent target share in

418
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:45,720
Speaker 4: this offense.

419
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:46,880
Speaker 1: So with the.

420
00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:49,119
Speaker 4: Cardinals being a very similar to the Seahawks playing a

421
00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,640
Speaker 4: lot of zone, a lot of two high safety. Arroyo

422
00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:53,639
Speaker 4: is second on the team with targets per run against

423
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:56,919
Speaker 4: those coverages behind JSN. So I think right now, Arroyo

424
00:20:57,560 --> 00:20:59,800
Speaker 4: he heard himself some more playing time. I think anything

425
00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 4: will before plus four hundred rather is still pretty decent value.

426
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:07,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, there're those Seahawks tight ends are like this whole

427
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 1: this whole offense is just I think you want to

428
00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:12,320
Speaker 1: invest and I love it. Royo as a player, this

429
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:18,159
Speaker 1: tight end class is just unreal. U Kerner, is this

430
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:22,440
Speaker 1: Isaac to Slaw time again? You got the lion you're

431
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:27,080
Speaker 1: going You're going outdoor golfing. You're outdoor golfing here with

432
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:31,159
Speaker 1: no offensive line but the commander's defense. I mean, I

433
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:33,920
Speaker 1: think Sam Donald was thirteen of thirteen for seventeen point

434
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,640
Speaker 1: six yards per pass attempt at one point. So yeah,

435
00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 1: this is this is quite the interesting matchup. Who you're

436
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 1: taking here?

437
00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I'll just cut to the chase here. I

438
00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,320
Speaker 3: was all set to not go with my guy to

439
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 3: Slaw here and pivot to some other long shot like

440
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:52,919
Speaker 3: I don't know, brock Wright or something like that, but this,

441
00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:55,840
Speaker 3: because you know, to Slaw only ran two routes last week.

442
00:21:55,880 --> 00:22:00,600
Speaker 3: He's clearly, you know, the number four wide receiver. But

443
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:04,200
Speaker 3: this morning, offensive coordinator John Morton said they're going to

444
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 3: get to Slaw more involved this week and that he's

445
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 3: shown a ton of progress. I think he got benched.

446
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,720
Speaker 3: There's a Senate game a few weeks ago he missed

447
00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:16,639
Speaker 3: the block on the screen pass. Ever since then, I

448
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:18,720
Speaker 3: think he's been in the doghouse. That's probably what they're

449
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:21,720
Speaker 3: referring to. So again, I was all set to move

450
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 3: off of him, but I'm going with Isaac Teslaw here

451
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:27,959
Speaker 3: at plus five hundred. Again, I'm well aware he's the fifth,

452
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:31,880
Speaker 3: maybe sometimes the sixth option in this offense, but it's such.

453
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:32,880
Speaker 2: An elite offense.

454
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,359
Speaker 3: You know, they put up a ton of points, and

455
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 3: he's a type of player. He's the type of receiver

456
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 3: that's going to get random troll touchdowns when they get

457
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:44,200
Speaker 3: into the red zone, like that's his specialty right now.

458
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:46,440
Speaker 3: So and he's already done it twice this year, So

459
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:49,399
Speaker 3: I think, you know, it's reflecting the odds. I like

460
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:51,600
Speaker 3: him here at plus five hundred. If you can trust

461
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 3: what John Morton said, I know people will giving me

462
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 3: a shit on Twitter saying he said that about Jamo,

463
00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:59,199
Speaker 3: but Jamo's already out there pretty much every snap. I

464
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:01,399
Speaker 3: think in this case, they're just saying that Slaw is

465
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:02,960
Speaker 3: gonna be on the field. I don't know if they're

466
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 3: you know, scheme passes to him, but I just need

467
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 3: him on the field. So I'll give me to slog

468
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 3: In this week at plus five hundred. On the Commander's side,

469
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 3: it's it's a little bit easier here. I think, you know,

470
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 3: Marcus Mariota at plus five hundred, it's sort of a

471
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 3: no brainer bet because you know he's taking over his

472
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 3: starter now with Jayden Daniels out with the arm injury,

473
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:25,199
Speaker 3: potentially for the rest of the season, and you know,

474
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 3: Mariota is always a threat to run, especially once they

475
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:31,119
Speaker 3: get to the red zone. He has one rushing score

476
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,199
Speaker 3: and just his three starts this year, So I just

477
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,640
Speaker 3: think plus five hundred is way too high for him.

478
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:38,720
Speaker 3: I have this closer at a plus three fifty as

479
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:39,560
Speaker 3: fair price.

480
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, and going back to Tesla, I think you will

481
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 1: be on the field more because the Commander's defense, unless

482
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 1: they kind of switch up their scheme, they still play

483
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 1: a lot of man, a lot of single high and

484
00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:54,240
Speaker 1: you got to be beat that with receivers. Unless you're

485
00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:56,639
Speaker 1: Sam Donald, then you just it doesn't matter. You can

486
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 1: kinda en receiver whatever. But yeah, you would expect an

487
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 1: tick and just wide receiver usage versus tight ends. So

488
00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 1: I think it's it's a good call to kind of

489
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 1: pivot off Brock right in the spot Rams at the Niners.

490
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:16,399
Speaker 1: This is always a fun one. Niners tend to have

491
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:18,640
Speaker 1: the Rams number a little bit. But for the Rams,

492
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 1: I'm going to Kyen Williams at even money. I actually

493
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,399
Speaker 1: have him around sixty percent in this spot. I know

494
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:28,880
Speaker 1: Blake korm is kind of emerging as well, but Kyron.

495
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 2: Just remember this is a revenge.

496
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,439
Speaker 1: Game because he felt like he lost the game for

497
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,239
Speaker 1: them in that first meeting with the fumble you know

498
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 1: that you know, could have essentially cost him a touchdown

499
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:41,879
Speaker 1: as well. So he's still scored in five out of

500
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:45,200
Speaker 1: eight games, and that's what he's been doing over the

501
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,639
Speaker 1: last three years. So I'm right in line with that.

502
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 1: I have him right around sixty percent. The market is

503
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 1: saying more like fifty percent, So give me some Kyron.

504
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 1: And you know Rams are favored here pretty substantially. I

505
00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 1: think a little too much. But and I I'm still

506
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 1: showing value on Kyron, so like him. And then for

507
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:07,680
Speaker 1: the Niners, going with Juwan Jennings at plus two point fifty,

508
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,360
Speaker 1: and this is a spot where yes they're at home,

509
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:12,639
Speaker 1: but they'll probably have to throw a lot. You know,

510
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 1: this Rams offense is just so good. The Rams will

511
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 1: probably be able to match them score for score. Last

512
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 1: time they went into overtime and mac Jones had up

513
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 1: thrown for like three something. So Jennings, you know, rounding

514
00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:28,479
Speaker 1: into shape here. And you know, Ricky Pierso is just

515
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,359
Speaker 1: he's every week it's just like is he gonna play?

516
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 2: We don't know.

517
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:34,680
Speaker 1: It's you start that we optimistic and the week a

518
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 1: little more pessimistic. So it's trending that way again. Jennings

519
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 1: is off the injury report though, so like him in

520
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 1: what could be a close, potential high scoring game here,

521
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:51,159
Speaker 1: I think this is a luck over, if I'm not

522
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:55,320
Speaker 1: not mistaken. So like Juwan Jennings at plus to fifty,

523
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 1: the Rams have been shaking against number one wide outs.

524
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,120
Speaker 2: That is, every.

525
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,960
Speaker 1: Game on a slate except the Monday, the Sunday and

526
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:07,680
Speaker 1: Monday night games. But first we're gonna do our favorite

527
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 1: Sunday Anytime Touchdown Parlay presented by Draft Kings. Will each

528
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 1: pick our favorite player to find the end zone on

529
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:19,199
Speaker 1: the Sunday slate, parlay those together on DK and then

530
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:23,000
Speaker 1: we'll jump into the primetime games after that. Kerner starts off,

531
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:27,640
Speaker 1: where are you going with your favorite Sunday Daytime anytime touchdown?

532
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with Alec Pierce here at plus two seventy.

533
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 3: You know, he hasn't scored yet this year, so he'szo

534
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 3: because he's one of the more underrated downfield wide receivers

535
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 3: in the game right now, and it's crazy hasn't scored

536
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 3: because he's on the highest scoring offense in the league

537
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 3: with the Colts averaging thirty two points per game. So

538
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:48,680
Speaker 3: I think we're rating some value here at Pierce at

539
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:49,880
Speaker 3: plus two seventy.

540
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 1: I'm gonna roll with Jamo here Kerner and this maybe

541
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 1: you know we will get one of these guys between

542
00:26:56,960 --> 00:27:00,280
Speaker 1: Teslaw and Jabo, but I do think, yeah, I think

543
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 1: this matchup sets up well. I know it's outdoor golf

544
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 1: and there's offensive line issues, but this is a team

545
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 1: in the Commanders that has just been getting gassed through

546
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 1: the air. They play a lot of single high, they

547
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:15,360
Speaker 1: play a lot of man coverage, which helps deep outside

548
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:18,120
Speaker 1: perimeter receivers. And on top of that, they just put

549
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:20,879
Speaker 1: their number one corner or guy they thought he was anyway,

550
00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:24,480
Speaker 1: Marshall Lattimore on IR. So, now do they end up

551
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 1: kind of dedicating more coverage to a guy like a

552
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 1: mon ros Saint Brown or you know, like how do

553
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,439
Speaker 1: they play? Does that change anything either way? I think

554
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 1: you know, it just it helps James and Williams. And

555
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 1: also I think the Detroit Lions might get a little

556
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:44,119
Speaker 1: bit over inflated in terms of, you know, the market

557
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 1: in this spot and so, but that also just makes

558
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 1: them trail more, which I think you also want for

559
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 1: a guy like Jamo because this is a team that

560
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:53,359
Speaker 1: you know they can get up big in games and

561
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 1: it's just a David Montgomery show or the Jamiri Gibbs show.

562
00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 1: So I want the Lions throwing the ball. I think

563
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 1: I think you might have to do a little bit

564
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 1: more in this spot, and it's just a defense that

565
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 1: you want to throw against. So give me Jmo, Jill

566
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:11,520
Speaker 1: close us out here, favorite Sunday anytime.

567
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 4: Touchdown Trey McBride right now against the Seahawks I think

568
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 4: he's playing the best at the position right now in

569
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 4: the NFL, So I'm going to take him, especially when

570
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 4: he's around like plus two to ten.

571
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 1: Yeah per second from a big boosts. All right out, Pierce, Jamison, Williams,

572
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 1: Trey McBride. You parway those together on DraftKings. You get

573
00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 1: over twenty two to one paraway odds. That was our

574
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 1: favorite anytime touchdown paraway presented by DraftKings. Now let's get

575
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 1: into Sunday Night football.

576
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 2: All right, we got the Steers.

577
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 1: Seem like every week the Steers are just second on

578
00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:49,239
Speaker 1: the Sunday Night game or something. But here we are

579
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 1: again Steeers Field go underdog Like It's just like the

580
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:58,040
Speaker 1: same script over and over. Turner, I'll start with you,

581
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 1: who do you like to score a down in Pittsburgh,

582
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 1: Los Angeles.

583
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 3: I'm going to go Jared Patterson here at ten to one.

584
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 3: You know, Patterson ended up having the hot hand last

585
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:15,760
Speaker 3: week against the Titans. You know, it was really disappointing

586
00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 3: performance by Kamani, butdal I had him ranked inside my

587
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 3: top ten in our fantasy rankings. And I'm guessing, you know,

588
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 3: vadal is going to get the first crack this week.

589
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:27,920
Speaker 3: He was too good, you know, the few games heading

590
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 3: into last week to just lose his job outright to Patterson.

591
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 3: But it does mean that Patterson has some upside, and

592
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,719
Speaker 3: he actually out snapped Vidal in shortyarded situations, so if

593
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 3: they get to the goal line, it's not out of

594
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,960
Speaker 3: question that Patterson could get the first crack at a

595
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:44,640
Speaker 3: goal line carry.

596
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 2: So ten the ones just seems.

597
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 3: Ridiculous for him because I'm projecting him closer to plus

598
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 3: five hundred. I had to do a double take, so

599
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:54,720
Speaker 3: I went to go see your projection's raybond. You're pretty

600
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 3: similar to me, so I thought I thought I was

601
00:29:57,320 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 3: missing something like Ampton was do back or something. So

602
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 3: I have no idea what he's ten to one, but

603
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 3: I think there's too much value on here to pass up.

604
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's kind of absurd because even in that

605
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 1: first game where he was active, I think he got

606
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 1: something like eleven carries in that one too, So you

607
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 1: but you kind of felt like, okay, it's because of

608
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 1: the blowout, and but the writing was on the wall

609
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 1: even there. So yeah, I think he's just one of

610
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 1: those guys that's undervalue in the market. I'm gonna go

611
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 1: with DK Metcalf on DK. Always love to roll with him, Kerner,

612
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 1: you had a good call, I think last week on

613
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 1: him just being not kind of a guy that we

614
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 1: want to be high on. Well this week, you know,

615
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 1: going up against the Chargers, they play the second most

616
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 1: zone coverage in the league, behind the Las Vegas Raiders,

617
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 1: and DK Metcalf has been far and away the Steeler's

618
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 1: best receiver against zone. Usually you don't see that with

619
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 1: wide receivers as much, only you know, the really good ones.

620
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 1: And I think Rogers indoors against the zone heavy defense,

621
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 1: he's gonna be able to target his number one receiver.

622
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 1: And Metcalf's one of the few guys in the league

623
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 1: that can run away from zone coverage like it's you know, it's.

624
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:06,840
Speaker 2: It's just not many guys can do that. He can.

625
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:08,520
Speaker 2: We've seen it a couple times already this year.

626
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 1: So rolling with DK on DK plus one sixty, Jill,

627
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 1: who do you like for Steelers Chargers to get the

628
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 1: end zone?

629
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I bet on him in each of

630
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 4: the last two games. I'm gonna go with Calvin Austin

631
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 4: again at plus three seventy five. Pretty much immediately jumped

632
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:28,000
Speaker 4: right back into the wide receiver two role on this

633
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 4: team after coming back from injury. He's playing more snaps

634
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 4: and running more routes than you know, Ben Skarnik or

635
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 4: Roman Wilson, and he is right now leading the team

636
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 4: in a dot That might change after that Roman Wilson

637
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 4: catch from last week, but when I was checking the data,

638
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 4: it was still Calvin Austin in this spot, and I think, again,

639
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 4: just a very good matchup where they could be trailing.

640
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 4: I think they're going to have to throw a little

641
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 4: bit more on the Steelers side, So I like Calvin

642
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 4: Austin at plus three seventy five.

643
00:31:54,680 --> 00:32:00,080
Speaker 1: Jared Patterson, DK Metcalf, Calvin Austin partway those three to

644
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 1: find the end zone and you get one twenty to

645
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 1: one one one hundred and twenty to one odds on DraftKings.

646
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:13,480
Speaker 1: Very juicy, love that Monday night. This game I believe

647
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 1: is a luck under shouts to our guy Nick Giffen.

648
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 1: So maybe touchdowns a little bit harder to come by.

649
00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 1: Both of these defenses are strong.

650
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 2: M Kerner.

651
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 1: Who do you like to get in the end zone

652
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 1: in Eagles Packers?

653
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 2: Yeah?

654
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:30,239
Speaker 3: I like Luke Musgrave here at plus three forty You know,

655
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 3: He's probably gonna step up for Tucker Craft, who's out

656
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 3: for the season now with the ACL tear last week.

657
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 3: Uh Kraft, you know they the Packers took Kraft in

658
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 3: the third round in twenty twenty three. They actually took

659
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:47,040
Speaker 3: Musgrave around earlier in round two. He's a very good

660
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 3: tight end prospect. But obviously, you know, Craft's turned out

661
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 3: to be the better, one of the better tight ends

662
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:55,800
Speaker 3: in the league, So that's really hurt Musgrave's value. Like

663
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 3: dynasty formats, but with him, you know, getting a step

664
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 3: up here is the starter. I think the market's underrating

665
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 3: him a bit. You know, He's probably not gonna have

666
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 3: the same touchdown upside of his Craft, but certainly at

667
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 3: plus three forty, I think he makes a ton of sense.

668
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 2: I know, really on.

669
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 3: Your guy John Fitzpatricks, Skinner mix in a lot more,

670
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 3: you know, especially in the red zone. But Musgrave has

671
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 3: good like downfield pass catching ability and yards after the

672
00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 3: catch ability, So I think you know, he could score

673
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 3: a longer when he doesn't even need them, you know,

674
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 3: to get down to the red zone. Throw him a

675
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 3: five yard pass in the end zone. I think he

676
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 3: has multiple different ways given his skill set to score here,

677
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 3: So I like taking him at plus three forty.

678
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, you expect the Eagles to cover

679
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:42,479
Speaker 1: wide receivers reasonably well, so I think it kind of

680
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 1: elevates the odds for a guy like Musgrave. I'm a

681
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 1: road the Vonte Smith in this spot plus two oh five.

682
00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 1: Packers zone heavy defense, and the only Eagles to catch

683
00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 1: touchdowns against Owe this year are Goddard and Devant Smith's

684
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 1: and Guy Ert. He's just been you know, I think

685
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 1: he's gonna get a little more attention here.

686
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 2: He's been a machine.

687
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 1: Don't get me wrong, but I think Devonte Smith always

688
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 1: goes a little underlooked here, and I think this could

689
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,000
Speaker 1: be one of his you know, blow up games, especially

690
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:17,360
Speaker 1: if the Packers are able to you know, kind of

691
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:20,359
Speaker 1: follow through with the markets projecting them as you know,

692
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 1: favorites by a bottle field goal on this spot. So

693
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 1: give me DeVante Smith and what could be a trailing

694
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 1: game script for the Eagles. Jill closes out, who do

695
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:33,640
Speaker 1: you like for Packers Eagles Monday Night Football to score

696
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 1: a touchdown?

697
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:36,759
Speaker 4: Yeah? It's pretty shocky, But anytime I can get him

698
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 4: at plus odds, I'm going to take it. Jalen Hurts.

699
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 4: He's around plus one thirty five plus one forty Uh.

700
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 4: I'm not really going to try to explain the touchdown

701
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:47,279
Speaker 4: history and pedigree that he has. It's just it's just

702
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 4: he has running back touchdown numbers as a quarterback, and

703
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:54,359
Speaker 4: he is what the first, uh first in red zone

704
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 4: rushing attempts for all quarterbacks. Only five touchdowns this year,

705
00:34:57,719 --> 00:34:59,200
Speaker 4: So I think of anything, there's probably gonna be a

706
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:01,439
Speaker 4: push for him. And I also would say that there's

707
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 4: just a few more outs. Yeah, push in the tush.

708
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 4: But the thing that I like about this is just

709
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:10,200
Speaker 4: there's multiple outs, the fact that we could get a

710
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:12,359
Speaker 4: DPI in the end zone, we could get the tush push,

711
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:14,360
Speaker 4: he might scramble from the ten yard line. There's just

712
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 4: a lot of different ways that Jalen can score. So

713
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:17,919
Speaker 4: anytime I can get him at plus odds, I'm gonna

714
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:19,880
Speaker 4: take them. And I think is a great like anchor

715
00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 4: leg for a parlay. Absolutely, yeah, Jayalen Hurts. I can't

716
00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 4: believe he only has five.

717
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:26,959
Speaker 1: I think they're they were trying to get a little

718
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 1: bit more creative and that I think that's how Goddard

719
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 1: stole one or two. They had that like shovel pass

720
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:34,239
Speaker 1: and things, but it seems like, yeah, it's got to

721
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 1: kind of even out, all right. As I mentioned, we're

722
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:40,360
Speaker 1: gonna add these anytime touchdown partways to the Parway Express account.

723
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:43,880
Speaker 1: This one is Luke Musgrave, Devon Tay Smith and Jalen

724
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 1: Hurts on Monday Night Football Parway. Those three players to

725
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:50,319
Speaker 1: score a touchdown together and you get twenty eight to

726
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:55,320
Speaker 1: one odds on DraftKings Again, Parley Express and the Action

727
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732
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Speaker 1: and Sean.

733
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Speaker 2: Drop their picks.

734
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Speaker 1: gonna do it. For NFL Week ten Touchdown Show presented

738
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739
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Speaker 1: Excuse me if you haven't already. Joe is at G

740
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Speaker 1: Doug five thousand, Dawg Kerner's at the underscribed maker. I'm

741
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Speaker 1: of the touchdown bets we discussed today, you can find

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746
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Speaker 1: the sub