WEBVTT - An Update on Ukraine 0:00:05.000 --> 0:00:08.239 Welcome to it could happen here the only podcast where 0:00:08.240 --> 0:00:12.040 the hosts asks all listeners and guests to provide their 0:00:12.080 --> 0:00:17.760 Social Security number and bank account number, routing number, all 0:00:17.800 --> 0:00:21.599 that good stuff. UM. This is a podcast about how 0:00:21.680 --> 0:00:24.279 things aren't always great, uh and maybe are kind of 0:00:24.280 --> 0:00:27.480 falling apart a little bit. And and it has also 0:00:27.600 --> 0:00:32.000 not been, for the most part, a podcast about the 0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:35.879 expanded war in Ukraine. UM. For a variety of reasons. 0:00:36.200 --> 0:00:38.839 We have done some coverage of that, uh, but we've 0:00:38.880 --> 0:00:43.320 focused specifically on stories of individual people and and that's 0:00:43.360 --> 0:00:46.800 generally where I feel like our strength is as a program. 0:00:46.840 --> 0:00:49.360 But people have been repeatedly requesting we do a little 0:00:49.360 --> 0:00:51.600 bit of a bigger picture look at what's gone on 0:00:51.720 --> 0:00:54.760 in that conflict, and so I have brought Aram Chambanian 0:00:55.280 --> 0:00:58.640 into the studio. Aram, how are you doing, buddy? Oh? 0:00:58.720 --> 0:01:01.320 Not a bad man? How you doing today? Finding dandy 0:01:01.400 --> 0:01:05.080 like sour candy? Now, would you describe kind of your 0:01:05.400 --> 0:01:08.800 your who you are and what you do and why 0:01:09.200 --> 0:01:12.319 why you're You're someone people should listen to when we're 0:01:12.319 --> 0:01:15.399 talking about a conflict like this, because you are one 0:01:15.440 --> 0:01:18.080 of the people who when everyone was like, there's no 0:01:18.120 --> 0:01:22.280 way Russia will invade was was saying, well, maybe it 0:01:22.360 --> 0:01:26.400 might happen. Yeah, I mean, um, well, I think one 0:01:26.440 --> 0:01:28.399 of the things that that sets me aside from a 0:01:28.400 --> 0:01:30.320 lot of other analysts out there is that I never 0:01:30.360 --> 0:01:32.480 thought I would become an analyst, and I never thought 0:01:32.480 --> 0:01:35.280 that I would do this. Um. I it wasn't set 0:01:35.280 --> 0:01:37.240 in stone from me from the beginning. I thought I 0:01:37.280 --> 0:01:39.080 was gonna be like a high school history teacher. And 0:01:39.160 --> 0:01:42.240 so I've always studied the world in terms of reading 0:01:42.240 --> 0:01:44.720 books on different conflicts around the world, and and I've 0:01:44.760 --> 0:01:48.680 tried to keep appraised on where these books have led to. Right, 0:01:48.760 --> 0:01:51.320 So if I read a book about the Second Congo War, 0:01:51.680 --> 0:01:54.320 it makes sense to then follow current events that are 0:01:54.320 --> 0:01:57.600 related to what happened after the Second Congo War. As 0:01:57.600 --> 0:02:00.560 a result, I followed things going on in Ukraine starting 0:02:00.560 --> 0:02:03.880 in with you am I done, um, and elsewhere in 0:02:03.880 --> 0:02:05.760 the world. But but Ukraine has been one that I've 0:02:05.760 --> 0:02:09.480 focused on pretty heavily because, um, there's been a lot 0:02:09.560 --> 0:02:12.639 of information about Ukraine ever since because of how late 0:02:12.680 --> 0:02:15.840 the war happened in terms of human history and in 0:02:16.080 --> 0:02:20.560 terms of recent conflicts. Feen, isn't that long ago? Um? 0:02:20.600 --> 0:02:24.160 And so uh, I started following it back then, and 0:02:24.240 --> 0:02:28.360 I think that if you combine modern open source tools, 0:02:28.600 --> 0:02:32.200 modern technology, some of the stuff that organizations like Belling 0:02:32.240 --> 0:02:35.960 Cat can do with traditional research and and and knowledge 0:02:36.040 --> 0:02:38.320 some of the stuff that I've done in school, you 0:02:38.400 --> 0:02:42.880 have a really powerful tool to combat disinformation UM. And 0:02:42.919 --> 0:02:44.120 I think that's one of the best tools we have 0:02:44.160 --> 0:02:48.280 to combat disinformation is wedding oh sent with traditional research UM. 0:02:48.680 --> 0:02:53.040 And Yeah, when it comes to open source intelligence, UM, 0:02:53.720 --> 0:02:55.560 the Ukrainian War is actually kind of one of the 0:02:55.680 --> 0:02:58.320 It's not the conflict where that really started to become 0:02:58.320 --> 0:03:00.200 a thing. That would probably be the Libyan Civil War 0:03:00.360 --> 0:03:04.280 when when that UM began to be something people were 0:03:04.320 --> 0:03:07.600 talking about in a big way. But the Ukrainian the 0:03:07.639 --> 0:03:11.880 invasion of Ukraine by Russia in particular in two thousand fourteen, 0:03:12.600 --> 0:03:15.960 UM is really where open source intelligence kind of came 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:19.560 into its own in a really widely known way. That's 0:03:19.560 --> 0:03:23.400 when Belling Cats reporting on the downing of MH On 0:03:23.840 --> 0:03:25.640 seven like went out and that was kind of like 0:03:25.680 --> 0:03:31.320 the first first really huge international story involving like open 0:03:31.360 --> 0:03:36.120 source intelligent cracking a case UM. And now since the 0:03:36.240 --> 0:03:40.360 expanded invasion of Russia back in February, we've kind of 0:03:40.520 --> 0:03:43.800 entered and again this isn't really where this period started, 0:03:43.840 --> 0:03:46.760 but this has been kind of we've seen an explosion 0:03:46.880 --> 0:03:49.040 of what I think would be fair to call open 0:03:49.080 --> 0:03:55.600 source intelligence disinformation. Um. Yeah, you want to talk a 0:03:55.640 --> 0:03:57.800 little bit about kind of some of the stuff that 0:03:57.840 --> 0:04:00.320 you've seen, because there's there's a number of accounts claiming 0:04:00.320 --> 0:04:03.840 to be doing ocean on the Ukrainian war. Um, and 0:04:04.120 --> 0:04:07.280 boy howdy, they are not all giving out good information. 0:04:07.360 --> 0:04:10.280 And it can be difficult for people to tell what 0:04:10.320 --> 0:04:12.720 they should trust because if you're if you're kind of 0:04:12.720 --> 0:04:16.320 just scanning over it, bad ocean or even outright fake 0:04:16.320 --> 0:04:19.880 ocean can look very similar to good ocean, right and 0:04:19.880 --> 0:04:22.120 and so I would put a lot of the ocean 0:04:22.200 --> 0:04:27.840 community into four rough categories. Uh there's uh osan analysts, 0:04:27.839 --> 0:04:30.479 and those are pretty rare. Those are the kind of 0:04:30.520 --> 0:04:33.240 people who combine what they're seeing in real time on 0:04:33.320 --> 0:04:36.599 social media with a background of knowledge in the area. 0:04:36.680 --> 0:04:40.160 So like a Ukraine regional expert combining that with what 0:04:40.160 --> 0:04:43.400 they're seeing happen in Ukraine, that's an ocean analyst. There's 0:04:43.440 --> 0:04:46.880 some Twitter accounts that are more ocean aggregators. They don't 0:04:46.920 --> 0:04:49.279 really have much analysis that put into what they're what 0:04:49.279 --> 0:04:52.200 they're producing, but they spit out a lot of information 0:04:52.360 --> 0:04:54.680 in real time, and so if you follow the right 0:04:54.720 --> 0:04:57.640 ones that use the right sources, you can get some 0:04:57.720 --> 0:05:00.760 pretty decent information from them. Then there's more of the 0:05:00.839 --> 0:05:03.839 misinformation aggregators, which are accounts that just kind of spread 0:05:03.839 --> 0:05:06.520 whatever they see without regards to whether it's true or not. 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:12.599 Um they'll sensationalized stories. You know, if there's the uh 0:05:12.680 --> 0:05:15.320 A rare command and control plane takes off somewhere in 0:05:15.360 --> 0:05:18.560 America that's known as the doomsday plane during the Cold War, 0:05:18.839 --> 0:05:20.800 they'll tweet out the doomsday plane is in the air. 0:05:20.920 --> 0:05:24.160 Doesn't mean the clear war right, And they're not doing 0:05:24.200 --> 0:05:26.400 it to be hurtful, they're doing it for likes. And 0:05:26.440 --> 0:05:30.080 then there's disinformation aggregators who are deliberately out there trying 0:05:30.080 --> 0:05:33.440 to sow discord and so problems. And those are four 0:05:33.480 --> 0:05:35.520 categories that I've seen all of them develop in their 0:05:35.560 --> 0:05:39.080 own ways in the last ten years. UM. I think 0:05:39.120 --> 0:05:43.040 the best best example of that final category there's an 0:05:43.040 --> 0:05:46.520 account on Twitter called s MM Syria, and if you 0:05:46.560 --> 0:05:49.359 look at the account, it looks almost identical to the 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:53.640 OS ces Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine. It takes the 0:05:53.720 --> 0:05:55.600 same kind of graphics and it has the same kind 0:05:55.640 --> 0:06:00.120 of terminology, but it's an astaddist disinformation outlet and so 0:06:00.320 --> 0:06:03.080 but they've woven their way into if you just took 0:06:03.080 --> 0:06:05.440 a casual glance at the war in Syria, you might 0:06:05.520 --> 0:06:08.880 believe that it's a valid source. And that's the kind 0:06:08.920 --> 0:06:11.800 of more malicious disinformation that I'm talking about, where like 0:06:12.120 --> 0:06:14.799 they know what they're doing and they're trying to confuse people, 0:06:15.480 --> 0:06:18.160 and it's there's you know, I think one of the 0:06:18.240 --> 0:06:23.080 best examples of something that really struck me recently as 0:06:23.160 --> 0:06:25.599 problematic in in the war in Ukraine, as you've got 0:06:25.640 --> 0:06:29.520 a video going around um of that purports to show 0:06:29.800 --> 0:06:35.200 Ukrainian soldiers shooting captured Russian soldiers um, which is a 0:06:35.240 --> 0:06:38.480 war crime. And uh, I think credible people within the 0:06:38.520 --> 0:06:41.839 Ocean community have said this is something that desperately needs 0:06:41.880 --> 0:06:45.520 to be investigated more seriously. This this like is very 0:06:45.960 --> 0:06:48.240 has a very good chance of being legitimate and people 0:06:48.240 --> 0:06:51.279 should be looking into this. Whereas you've also seen folks 0:06:51.279 --> 0:06:56.160 who kind of reflectively jumped to defend Ukraine against these allegations, 0:06:56.240 --> 0:06:59.960 putting out what I think is fairly shoddy ocean claiming 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:02.440 to show like issues with the video and stuff, and 0:07:02.520 --> 0:07:05.720 it's like people circling blurry sections of the video and 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:07.800 saying like this is you know, looks like it could 0:07:07.800 --> 0:07:10.040 be edited, or this doesn't look credible, and it is 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:12.800 the kind of thing. I think. One reason people can 0:07:12.840 --> 0:07:15.400 get tripped up by that is prior to the invasion 0:07:15.440 --> 0:07:18.080 of Ukraine, there were some Russian false flag events that 0:07:18.200 --> 0:07:21.720 involved like cadavers, bodies that had been autopsy and stuff, 0:07:21.720 --> 0:07:24.000 which was broken down by people like Elliot Higgins at 0:07:24.040 --> 0:07:26.520 Belling cat Um and one of the things that again 0:07:26.640 --> 0:07:28.720 if you're just kind of looking at the surface level, 0:07:29.000 --> 0:07:31.560 you can see like, oh well that those were videos 0:07:31.640 --> 0:07:34.360 that were faked, and so these like the o cent 0:07:34.480 --> 0:07:36.960 around this people like pointing out different sections of the 0:07:37.040 --> 0:07:40.920 video looks the same. Some of the differences are, for example, Um, 0:07:41.240 --> 0:07:44.480 when they were analyzing the bodies and those those false 0:07:44.520 --> 0:07:50.560 flag footage, they brought in actual you know, corpse cutter ruppers, morticians, yes, 0:07:50.760 --> 0:07:53.400 to analyze like the cuts in the in the skulls 0:07:53.480 --> 0:07:56.040 and whatnot, as opposed to again just kind of a 0:07:56.080 --> 0:07:58.400 guy circling aspects of a video and being like this 0:07:58.520 --> 0:08:01.200 doesn't seem right and it's like, um, but you can 0:08:01.280 --> 0:08:03.320 I can see why people get tripped up by it, 0:08:03.440 --> 0:08:05.840 and it it is important not to get tripped up 0:08:05.880 --> 0:08:09.080 by that kind of stuff because um, war crimes are bad, 0:08:09.480 --> 0:08:11.760 I think is a general attitude that we we both 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:15.560 share um and and should be investigated regardless of like 0:08:15.720 --> 0:08:18.880 whether or not they're being done by the side who's 0:08:18.880 --> 0:08:21.600 also towing Russian tanks away with tractors. That you're you're 0:08:21.640 --> 0:08:23.880 on the side of right, like right, And I think 0:08:23.920 --> 0:08:27.080 that that's that's exactly an important distinction to because like, 0:08:27.680 --> 0:08:29.920 there are certain claims that have come out from the 0:08:30.000 --> 0:08:32.839 Ukrainian side, certain statements that have come out that as 0:08:32.920 --> 0:08:36.360 an osan analyst, I could probably look into more and 0:08:36.559 --> 0:08:39.160 maybe poke holes and stuff like the number of kills 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:43.520 that the ghost of keys, right, Okay, maybe it's not 0:08:43.760 --> 0:08:45.640 thirty kills or whatever it is that people are saying. 0:08:45.760 --> 0:08:50.640 Maybe he's not really, but that's not harmful as much 0:08:50.800 --> 0:08:53.960 as did these guys shoot people in the legs? Right? Right? 0:08:54.040 --> 0:08:57.360 So one of those bears examination just because of the 0:08:57.480 --> 0:08:59.800 nature of the claim. The other one, maybe we can 0:09:00.040 --> 0:09:02.240 xamined it after the war when it's not a It 0:09:02.320 --> 0:09:05.920 doesn't really matter if there is a Ukrainian ace fighter 0:09:06.000 --> 0:09:08.520 pilot who's dropped a bunch of a crazy number like 0:09:08.559 --> 0:09:11.200 obviously in a military sense of Russian jets are being 0:09:11.280 --> 0:09:13.880 down to that doesn't matter. But like from the perspective 0:09:13.920 --> 0:09:17.800 of people just kind of observing this war as as 0:09:17.880 --> 0:09:20.920 news consumers, it doesn't really matter, whereas whether or not 0:09:21.040 --> 0:09:24.400 a country gets away with a war crime absolutely matters, 0:09:24.760 --> 0:09:27.320 and people are treating it with the same reflective handwave 0:09:27.400 --> 0:09:30.080 as they do when they accept these ghost of Kiev. 0:09:30.520 --> 0:09:32.679 Yes Smiths, right, they're saying like, well, no, but I 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:35.160 want the Ukrainian side to win this war, so we 0:09:35.280 --> 0:09:37.679 can't even look into any claims of war crimes. And 0:09:37.720 --> 0:09:40.120 that's just not how it's supposed to be. Like you 0:09:40.240 --> 0:09:43.760 condemn the crimes up front, and you investigate and you 0:09:43.880 --> 0:09:46.319 try to move forward, and that's how we prove that 0:09:46.400 --> 0:09:49.800 we're better than the opposing sides. Like that's that's been 0:09:49.840 --> 0:09:51.920 the rule in this war, and it's been the rule 0:09:51.960 --> 0:09:54.360 in war's past. You know, you you prove that you're 0:09:54.400 --> 0:09:58.280 better than your opponents by being more decent. Yeah, and 0:09:58.400 --> 0:10:01.760 it's it's I have seen some really unsettling logic from 0:10:01.840 --> 0:10:04.880 some people along the lines of like, well, these were 0:10:05.120 --> 0:10:08.000 artillerymen who have been you know, shelling civilian areas, so 0:10:08.120 --> 0:10:10.400 why shouldn't they be be shot in the leg? And 0:10:10.440 --> 0:10:13.040 the answer is because, like, that's number one, it is 0:10:13.080 --> 0:10:16.160 a war crime to shoot captured prisoners. Likely that that 0:10:16.320 --> 0:10:18.920 is a thing that we as a as a species 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:22.920 have attempted to make illegal, um and problem and ought 0:10:23.000 --> 0:10:24.599 to be. It is a thing that like should not 0:10:24.760 --> 0:10:26.439 be done. And there's actually of a wide variety of 0:10:26.480 --> 0:10:29.680 like tactical reasons why it's bad for Ukraine. If Russian 0:10:29.760 --> 0:10:32.719 soldiers believe they will be shot after being captured, it makes, 0:10:33.040 --> 0:10:35.199 among other things, that makes soldiers less likely to turn 0:10:35.280 --> 0:10:38.839 themselves in. UM. One of the wiser decisions that the 0:10:38.960 --> 0:10:41.760 Ukrainian government has made in this war has been really 0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:46.120 deliberately pushing um the idea that like, hey, Russians, if 0:10:46.160 --> 0:10:49.720 you surrender, will pay you, you can get Ukrainian citizenship, 0:10:49.880 --> 0:10:52.280 Like bring in your tanks, you know, land your planes 0:10:52.360 --> 0:10:54.600 or whatever, like well, you know, will make it worth 0:10:54.640 --> 0:10:58.920 your while. Um, which is a lot which is potentially 0:10:58.960 --> 0:11:02.360 a force multiplier, right, Um, If Russian soldiers think when 0:11:02.360 --> 0:11:04.600 I get captured, they will shoot me, then they will 0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:07.000 fight to the death and Ukraine will lose more people 0:11:07.520 --> 0:11:10.440 in that fight, as opposed to if Russian soldiers think, well, ship, 0:11:10.520 --> 0:11:13.000 I could actually have a pretty decent life if I 0:11:13.120 --> 0:11:15.280 just turned myself into these guys and refused to fight. 0:11:15.720 --> 0:11:18.800 That means less people you have to fight. Um. So 0:11:18.920 --> 0:11:21.920 it it does. It does really matter whether or not 0:11:22.200 --> 0:11:26.319 this is happening. Um. And it's also just like on 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:28.520 a moral level, you you shouldn't accept it. And I 0:11:28.600 --> 0:11:30.640 see some really I think one of the things that 0:11:30.880 --> 0:11:34.520 I find so unsettling about that logic like these are uh, 0:11:34.920 --> 0:11:38.080 these are you know, artillerymen who have been targeting civilian areas. 0:11:38.120 --> 0:11:40.920 Why shouldn't they be shot? Um, It's not that much 0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:43.120 of a leap to like some other ship we saw 0:11:43.200 --> 0:11:46.520 people saying in Vietnam, you know, these villages are harboring insurgents. 0:11:46.559 --> 0:11:48.760 Why shouldn't we treat them like the enemy? You know, 0:11:48.960 --> 0:11:52.040 like all of this logic leads to people getting murdered 0:11:52.040 --> 0:11:56.000 who don't deserve to get murdered, and that is bad. Right, 0:11:56.120 --> 0:11:58.520 there's the snowball effect, the slippery slope effect with the 0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:00.040 moral side of it. And then like you're saying a 0:12:00.120 --> 0:12:02.120 tactical side of it. I mean, if you look at 0:12:02.920 --> 0:12:05.520 part of the reason members of ISIS fought so hard 0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:09.400 in places like most of which because once you're in 0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:12.040 that organization, your options are a bullet or like a 0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:15.280 desert cell. If you're lucky, they're not going to treat 0:12:15.320 --> 0:12:17.920 you well and reintegrate you into society. Come on, like, no, 0:12:18.240 --> 0:12:20.280 that's not how it works, so you fight like hell, 0:12:21.120 --> 0:12:23.679 you know that's that's a very basic rule that is 0:12:23.679 --> 0:12:27.280 pretty easy to understand, I would think. So that's why 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:29.800 this needs to be looked into. And if it's proven false, 0:12:31.080 --> 0:12:33.440 if it's proven it to not be a correct true video, 0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:35.880 that just strengthens the Ukrainian side. But if it is 0:12:35.920 --> 0:12:38.000 proven to be true, it's something that needs to be investigated. 0:12:38.040 --> 0:12:40.160 It can't be overlooked. It can't be swept under the 0:12:40.240 --> 0:12:42.680 under the rug. Just because we we want one side 0:12:42.720 --> 0:12:44.880 of this war to come out on top doesn't mean 0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:48.719 that we have to ignore you're committing like one, A 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:51.880 good rule of thumb to approach a war from when 0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:55.200 you're trying to analyze it is that there there has 0:12:55.280 --> 0:12:57.559 never been a side in a war who have not 0:12:57.720 --> 0:13:01.559 committed war crimes. Um. So that should always be on 0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:03.640 your mind when you're trying to evaluate the reality of 0:13:03.640 --> 0:13:05.040 a war crime. It doesn't mean every claim of a 0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:07.520 war crime is true. That would be a very silly 0:13:07.600 --> 0:13:09.439 way to translate that. But it does mean that when 0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:12.040 there is a claim that the side you support has 0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:14.679 been responsible for a war crime, your default should be 0:13:15.040 --> 0:13:18.079 this is not impossible, and I should I should proceed 0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:20.199 from the area that this could have happened, and and 0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:24.040 it should be analyzed without reflectively dismissing it, and also 0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:26.640 without saying that like war crimes committed by a group 0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:29.079 of soldiers in a single part of a theater necessarily 0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:32.800 mean that the the war itself is being prosecuted in 0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:36.080 a criminal level by that government. Um because for example, well, 0:13:36.080 --> 0:13:39.360 I mean, I was about to say U. S. Soldiers 0:13:39.360 --> 0:13:41.880 committed war crimes in World War Two, but actually the 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:43.920 prosecution of that war was criminal in a lot of 0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:50.959 fundamental ways. But it doesn't. That doesn't mean that like 0:13:51.160 --> 0:13:54.520 your granddad committed war crimes because other U. S. Soldiers 0:13:54.559 --> 0:13:59.800 who were in the field executed captured German POWs, you know, um, Yeah, 0:14:00.240 --> 0:14:02.000 which I think is something people have an easier time 0:14:02.080 --> 0:14:04.880 understanding when it's not a war, they feel the need 0:14:04.960 --> 0:14:08.600 to have a series of two character or less takes 0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:12.520 on in Twitter. Yeah, it's That's the weirdest thing about 0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:15.680 about the social media age and and kind of sent 0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:19.520 in general, is that while it does make it very 0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:23.080 accessible and easy for anybody to get involved in investigating 0:14:23.360 --> 0:14:27.520 these crimes and these events, it also means that everybody 0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:29.880 thinks they have an opinion that matters on it, and 0:14:30.200 --> 0:14:33.280 uh and and in that sense, they muddy the waters. 0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:36.800 They they a lot of people can can imitate the 0:14:36.880 --> 0:14:40.240 ocent look pretty well. They can circle things in pictures 0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:42.560 that look similar, or as we saw in Syria, a 0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:46.200 lot they'd take two pictures of two totally different dudes 0:14:46.560 --> 0:14:48.520 and say these are the same guy, they're both members 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:51.920 of Al Nustra are something like that, and they would 0:14:51.960 --> 0:14:54.080 compare the eyes and compare the chins and stuff, and 0:14:54.080 --> 0:14:56.440 it's kind of like a belling cat image. But it 0:14:56.640 --> 0:15:00.560 wasn't right. It is. That's the anger here is that 0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:04.920 like everybody can can help, but everybody can hurt now too. Yeah. Yeah, 0:15:04.960 --> 0:15:08.920 And it's one of those things. Every every aspect of 0:15:09.000 --> 0:15:11.160 this cuts both ways, because like the thing people started 0:15:11.200 --> 0:15:15.240 saying rightfully so after the invasion, or the expanded invasion 0:15:15.280 --> 0:15:18.000 I should say of Ukraine by Russia. Is like, well, 0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:20.520 now all of these people who were experts in whatever 0:15:20.600 --> 0:15:22.800 the last big story was are going to become experts 0:15:22.840 --> 0:15:25.440 on the Ukrainian conflict, right, which is absolutely a thing 0:15:25.480 --> 0:15:27.080 that happened. You get all of these people who I 0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:31.160 think are pretty bad journalists and reporters who suddenly like 0:15:31.320 --> 0:15:33.640 rushed to to have their commentary on this thing that 0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:36.960 they have ignored for the last eight years. Um. But 0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:39.760 at the same time, it's to talk about Belling Cat. 0:15:39.800 --> 0:15:42.160 The founder of Belling Cat, my old boss, Elliott Higgins, 0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:45.640 was like literally an unemployed dude sitting on his couch 0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:48.880 and when he started analyzing war footage um and is 0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:53.600 now one of the most respected conflict analysts in the world. UM. 0:15:53.760 --> 0:15:56.480 And that is a thing the Internet has made possible. UM. 0:15:56.560 --> 0:15:59.880 I think a great example would be the Caliber Obscura Twitter, 0:16:00.000 --> 0:16:02.480 which is just like a dude in the UK who 0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:07.760 has an almost impossible ability to recognize firearms and pieces 0:16:07.800 --> 0:16:11.960 of firearms and so just analyzes people send him footage 0:16:12.000 --> 0:16:13.880 from all over the planet and he'll say, like, these 0:16:13.880 --> 0:16:15.480 are these guns, and this is where they came from, 0:16:15.560 --> 0:16:17.800 and this is uh, this one is like looks like 0:16:17.880 --> 0:16:21.280 this kind of gun, but it's actually, um, a fake 0:16:21.360 --> 0:16:23.640 one that's being made locally in this country, and it 0:16:23.760 --> 0:16:25.120 is supposed to look like this. And you can tell 0:16:25.160 --> 0:16:28.760 because like, um, that's not a person who Caliber did 0:16:28.840 --> 0:16:32.000 not like go to some sort of fancy gun school. 0:16:32.080 --> 0:16:35.200 They just are uh. I mean, it's definitely not right 0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:37.240 to call them an amateur because quite frankly, I don't 0:16:37.280 --> 0:16:40.320 know any people who are working at institutes and better 0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:43.560 at the thing that Caliber does than calibers, right um. 0:16:43.600 --> 0:16:45.640 But they did just start as a person on Twitter. 0:16:45.800 --> 0:16:48.560 You know, that's the thing about this, this is that 0:16:49.480 --> 0:16:52.080 you get people who were not kind of born with 0:16:52.160 --> 0:16:54.360 an idea that they were going to become analysts and 0:16:54.400 --> 0:16:57.120 this in this field. And so you have people like 0:16:57.400 --> 0:16:59.680 both of both of the people you mentioned, whom I 0:16:59.800 --> 0:17:02.080 I know personal I don't know Elliott personally, but I 0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:05.240 remember him from our days are shared days on a 0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:09.800 comedy website together. It's the website that show remained nameless, 0:17:11.600 --> 0:17:16.119 right um. And then and then you know, uh, Caliber 0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:18.240 and I have talked on Twitter a bunch and you know, 0:17:18.320 --> 0:17:20.080 we're friends there and it's just interesting to see that, 0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:23.399 like both of them are very real people behind like 0:17:23.560 --> 0:17:27.800 their professional personality and their their expertise. They're also down 0:17:27.880 --> 0:17:30.680 to earth, real people, which is rare in this field 0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:33.480 because a lot of people are kind of elitist um 0:17:33.680 --> 0:17:37.359 and and and yeah Gatekeeper E And neither of them 0:17:37.400 --> 0:17:39.840 are about that. They're both all about like getting as 0:17:39.880 --> 0:17:43.320 many people doing this as possible because more eyes are better, Like, yeah, 0:17:43.920 --> 0:17:46.040 Elliott is is Uh. I mean, the whole reason my 0:17:46.160 --> 0:17:48.920 career with Belling Cat existed is because, like I emailed 0:17:48.960 --> 0:17:50.479 him out of the blue one day and said, hey, 0:17:50.520 --> 0:17:53.359 I've been noticing this weird thing in videos of fascists 0:17:53.960 --> 0:17:55.960 talking to cops. Can I write a thing for you? 0:17:56.200 --> 0:17:58.639 And he was just like okay, and and that was 0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:00.960 I mean, like that was how that started. Um and 0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:03.720 he's I've met him since a couple of times, and yeah, 0:18:03.720 --> 0:18:06.200 it is a very I think it is very informed. 0:18:07.000 --> 0:18:09.280 Because of the fact that he did not come from 0:18:09.400 --> 0:18:12.639 sort of this big institutional background. UM has has a 0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:17.119 humility with which he approaches his investigations that, uh, I 0:18:17.240 --> 0:18:20.200 think is one of the things you should look for 0:18:20.440 --> 0:18:23.800 in trying to decide whether or not open source intelligence 0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:26.440 that you're seeing on Twitter whatever is credible is how 0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:31.080 how how conclusive are they stating their claims? Are? How 0:18:31.119 --> 0:18:33.639 many times do they offer only a single possibility for 0:18:33.760 --> 0:18:36.880 what something is like? Um, you know, there's a number 0:18:36.880 --> 0:18:48.400 of things you can do. I think at this point 0:18:48.480 --> 0:18:51.600 we should probably move to a separate area of discussion, 0:18:51.680 --> 0:18:59.040 which is how's the how's this working? Who? Who's who's winning? What? Um? Well, so, 0:18:59.240 --> 0:19:03.280 I I made a statement on my Facebook page, my 0:19:03.400 --> 0:19:06.160 personal Facebook page, three weeks ago, and I still feel 0:19:06.200 --> 0:19:09.280 confident in that statement, and that is that well, Ukraine 0:19:09.359 --> 0:19:13.080 has yet to win this war. Russia has already lost. 0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:16.639 They've already lost their objectives, They've already lost what they 0:19:16.800 --> 0:19:18.480 what their goals were. And at this point it's a 0:19:18.560 --> 0:19:21.639 face saving venture on the Russian part. But a rum um. 0:19:22.480 --> 0:19:26.520 Russia carried out a cutting faint action to distract while 0:19:26.560 --> 0:19:29.320 they while they took the East by burning a fifth 0:19:29.359 --> 0:19:32.240 of their general staff and all of their armored vehicles. 0:19:32.920 --> 0:19:35.639 It was a cunning fat Yeah. I saw someone on 0:19:35.760 --> 0:19:41.280 Twitter positive was actually uh a move to use up 0:19:41.320 --> 0:19:46.600 all of Ukraine's ammunition. Brilliant, Yeah, just very very zab 0:19:46.680 --> 0:19:53.120 Brannigan logic. Half of Vladimir Putin. Ukrainians have a preset 0:19:53.200 --> 0:19:55.960 kill limit and once they hit ten generals, the army 0:19:56.000 --> 0:20:00.159 will shut down. But no, the war is not well 0:20:00.240 --> 0:20:02.959 for Russia. Um. And that's not to say that it's 0:20:03.000 --> 0:20:06.600 going great for Ukraine either, but no one needs to 0:20:06.720 --> 0:20:12.840 do less well to succeed here. Yes, it's uh, I 0:20:12.920 --> 0:20:15.159 mean because one of the things that is a black box, right. 0:20:15.280 --> 0:20:18.040 I do think because there was a lot of discussion 0:20:18.119 --> 0:20:20.280 earlier in the ward, particularly like how credible are these 0:20:20.359 --> 0:20:23.159 numbers that the Ukrainian government is putting out for for 0:20:23.280 --> 0:20:26.760 dead and for destroyed vehicles? And I think the oceans 0:20:27.200 --> 0:20:30.399 out there, like the verified vehicle casualties and stuff that 0:20:30.400 --> 0:20:33.280 we can verify, means that like obviously the Ukrainian government 0:20:33.400 --> 0:20:36.360 is patting their numbers, but not by as much as 0:20:36.400 --> 0:20:39.159 a lot of people might have, like it's not wildly 0:20:39.280 --> 0:20:43.320 off saw their first casualty account. I think first casual account. 0:20:43.320 --> 0:20:46.920 I think it was okays, like day two or three, 0:20:48.119 --> 0:20:50.320 and then like all of the western and help me, yeah, 0:20:50.760 --> 0:20:56.600 actually yeah, it's probably about oh my god. Wow. Yeah 0:20:57.200 --> 0:20:59.560 in perspective for some people who may not that number 0:20:59.600 --> 0:21:02.879 may not jump out to them. We lost, you know, 0:21:03.400 --> 0:21:07.240 just shy of three thousand soldiers killed during the Iraq Wars. So, yeah, 0:21:07.560 --> 0:21:10.360 two thousand in a couple of days is an extraordinary 0:21:10.440 --> 0:21:13.359 number of losses. Yeah. And of course the black box 0:21:13.400 --> 0:21:15.359 here we don't have nearly as good an information on 0:21:15.640 --> 0:21:18.439 is what kind of casualties is the Ukrainian military suffered 0:21:18.440 --> 0:21:21.119 and what kind of civilian casualties have been suffered? And um, 0:21:21.560 --> 0:21:26.360 Obviously civilian casualties nearly always take much longer to get, 0:21:26.640 --> 0:21:28.920 um to the extent that it's ever. I think we 0:21:29.000 --> 0:21:32.720