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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Daybak podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever

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Speaker 1: you listen. It's Monday, the second of December here in London.

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Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hepka. Coming up today. President Joe Biden pardons

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Speaker 1: his son Hunter after repeatedly insisting he wouldn't. Just weeks

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Speaker 1: before leaving office, France's finance minister tells Bloomberg that the

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Speaker 1: government won't be blackmailed over the budget by Marine le

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Speaker 1: Penn Plus. Workers across Europe are taking more sick days

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Speaker 1: and the economic costs are mounting. But does anyone have

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Speaker 1: an antidote? Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 1: President Joe Biden has signed a sweeping pardon for his

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Speaker 1: son Hunter. The move reverses the president's previous commitment not

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Speaker 1: to use his executive powers to aid his son. In

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Speaker 1: a statement, Biden justified the pardon by saying that the

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Speaker 1: case against his son was politically motivated and designed to

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Speaker 1: break him and Hunter. We get reaction now from the

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Speaker 1: former federal prosecutor Laurie Levinson.

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Speaker 2: I think everyone needs to recognize that with the broad

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Speaker 2: power that presidents have to issue pardons. They will use

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Speaker 2: them for family members, and they will use them for

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Speaker 2: close friends, because the constitution gives them this fraud pardon power.

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Speaker 1: That was Professor of law Laurie Levenson. Biden's move marks

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Speaker 1: a stunning decision by an outgoing president, weeks before he

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Speaker 1: leaves office and President elect Donald Trump takes power. Hunter

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Speaker 1: Biden was found guilty of gun charges by a federal

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Speaker 1: court in Delaware earlier this year. His sentencing in that

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Speaker 1: case was set to take place next Thursday. He pled

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Speaker 1: guilty in a separate felony tax case in September, and

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Speaker 1: overall face the threat of significant time in prison. France's

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Speaker 1: finance minister says that the country won't be blackmailed on

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Speaker 1: the Speaking to Bloomberg over the weekend, Antoine Armant explained

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Speaker 1: that the government won't accept artificial deadlines from the National

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Speaker 1: Rallies Marine La penn That's even as the far right

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Speaker 1: politician gave her strongest indication yet that she is prepared

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Speaker 1: to topple the government by backing a no confidence motion.

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Speaker 3: The French government doesn't take in Timtom's it's looking at

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Speaker 3: the French parliamentary debate it's respecting each and every parliamentary

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Speaker 3: debate that leads to an evolution. We will take into

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Speaker 3: account what is changing, but we won't be blackmailed. We

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Speaker 3: are committed to reduce the deficit.

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Speaker 1: French Finance Minister Antoine Arman, speaking there. The country's political

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Speaker 1: standoff has led to market jitters, with the Euro slipping

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Speaker 1: about zero point four percent in early Asia trading today

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Speaker 1: as investors reacted to Arman's comments. Business activity here in

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Speaker 1: the UK is on course to shrink for the first

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Speaker 1: time in more than two years. That's according to the

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Speaker 1: Confederation of British Industry's monthly growth indicator. The Employer Group's

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Speaker 1: survey found that the budget measures, including a twenty six

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Speaker 1: billion pound increase to payroll taxes, have hit business sentiment,

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Speaker 1: with firms warning that it will undermine economic growth and employment.

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Speaker 1: The findings come as the Prime Minister Kirstarma is expected

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Speaker 1: to unveil a plan for change, including targets for the economy,

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Speaker 1: healthcare and crime, this week as he faces plummeting poll ratings.

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Speaker 1: Ireland is likely to see the return of a coalition

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Speaker 1: government led by Fena Gail and Fena Foyle, with more

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Speaker 1: than two thirds of the election results announced, the two

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Speaker 1: parties are on track to get more than eighty seats.

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Speaker 1: They need eighty eight frame majority in the Irish Parliament.

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Speaker 1: A deal with a smaller party or independent lawmakers would

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Speaker 1: likely get them over the line. Here's the Fena Gail

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Speaker 1: leader and Prime Minister Simon Harris.

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Speaker 4: Was predicted by many that my party would use dozens

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Speaker 4: and dozens of council seats, maybe able to say they

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Speaker 4: cancelsate didn't happen. It's predicted we'd be lucky if we

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Speaker 4: returned with two MP's. Didn't happen. More people voted Finnegail

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Speaker 4: and the local elections than any other party.

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Speaker 1: Well, how has his Fienna Gael had a significant pole

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Speaker 1: lead ahead of the vote. A gaff ridden campaign saw

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Speaker 1: his parties lead evaporate head of the election, with Fena Foyle,

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Speaker 1: led by Mihor Martin, potentially gaining the upper hand in

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Speaker 1: coalition talks. Syrian government forces have withdrawn from the city

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Speaker 1: of Aleppo following an offensive by rebels opposed to the

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Speaker 1: rule of President Asad. It marks the most significant fighting

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Speaker 1: in Syria's civil war in recent years. Doctor Hayd Had

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Speaker 1: is a senior consulting research fellow at Chatham House.

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Speaker 5: What we have seen in the past twenty four to

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Speaker 5: forty eight hours that regime forces as well as allies

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Speaker 5: had been mobilizing themselves in order to go and then

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Speaker 5: five back. And I think the upcoming a few days

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Speaker 5: will really give us a better sense of how secure

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Speaker 5: the regime is.

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Speaker 1: Doctor had speaking there as rebel forces push south towards Hammer.

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Speaker 1: President Assad's two biggest military allies, Russia and Iran, have

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Speaker 1: reiterated their support for the Syrian regime. However, events in

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Speaker 1: Ukraine and the Middle East mean that both nations may

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Speaker 1: only offer limited support. And lastly, Stillanti's CEO, Carlos Tavaraz,

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Speaker 1: is stepping down following a dispute with the board over

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Speaker 1: how to improve the company's sagging fortunes. Tavarez is one

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Speaker 1: of a number of industry executives who've come under pressure

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Speaker 1: as the carmaker confronts a slumping market. Global automakers are

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Speaker 1: struggling with an economic slowdown in China, flagging demand for

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Speaker 1: electric vehicles here in Europe, and the threat of tarifs

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Speaker 1: on President elect Donald Trump in the US. The firm

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Speaker 1: behind brands including Jeep and Fiat says that the company

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Speaker 1: will now be led by an interim committee headed by

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Speaker 1: the chairman John Elkhan, and the new CEO will be

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Speaker 1: named in the first half of twenty two, twenty five.

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Speaker 1: So those were a few of our top stories then

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Speaker 1: for you this morning. In terms of the markets this hour,

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Speaker 1: S and P five hundred EMAILI futures are down this

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Speaker 1: morning two tenths of one percent. U Stox fifty futures

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Speaker 1: are also slumping nine tenths of one percent, although we

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Speaker 1: do see some stocks rising in Asia, the masci Asia

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Speaker 1: Pacific Index up by six tenths of one percent. We

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Speaker 1: saw some gains on Wall Street on Friday. I think

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Speaker 1: the big moves that have been in the currency markets.

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Speaker 1: The dollar is rallying. We are almost half of one

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Speaker 1: percent on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index. President let Trump

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Speaker 1: demanded commitment from bricks countries on continuing to use the

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Speaker 1: US dollar, telling them not to create a currency to

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Speaker 1: rival the green back. That seems to have injected some

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Speaker 1: movement in the FX space. Seems to be a bearish

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Speaker 1: signal for the UN for example. But you've also got

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Speaker 1: the French budget standoff, which has weighed on risk sentiment

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Speaker 1: it's also weighed significantly on the euro, which is slumping

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Speaker 1: this morning, down half of one percent. Tenny US treasury

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Speaker 1: yields have added full basis points to four twenty one,

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Speaker 1: and we're also gearing up, of course for the December

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Speaker 1: Central Bank meetings. Rate Heike fever has also powered the

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Speaker 1: Japanese Yeah, and it's slumping now half of one percent

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Speaker 1: against the US dollar this morning. In a moment, we'll

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Speaker 1: bring you more on Biden pardoning his son Hunter Biden

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Speaker 1: and the reaction, plus our exclusive interview with the French

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Speaker 1: finance Minister Aartowine Avmar and a story about the growing

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Speaker 1: toll of sick days in Europe. But another story called

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Speaker 1: my Eye. This morning, Bloombig's Josie Cox got me thinking

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Speaker 1: about AI artificial intelligence. I wonder if you're using it daily, weekly,

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Speaker 1: not at all.

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Speaker 5: Well.

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Speaker 1: Over the last six months, Josie's been asking people about

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Speaker 1: AI and how they use it, and digging up all

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Speaker 1: of the research into how genders different genders are using

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Speaker 1: artificial intelligence. She says that there is a worrying generative

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Speaker 1: AI gender gap, with more men likely to use AI

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Speaker 1: tools like chat, GPT and women more hesitant. There is

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Speaker 1: obviously a well known kind of tech gender divide, but

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Speaker 1: she's more worried about the AI gap because of how

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Speaker 1: quickly AI is reshaping and transforming the labor market. So

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Speaker 1: she looked at some of the well, there aren't that

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Speaker 1: many surveys, but she did look at the surveys that

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Speaker 1: exist of AI, including from the Bank for International Settlements

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Speaker 1: in July talking about this statistically significant gender AI gap.

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Speaker 1: But the piece that she writes isn't all negative, so

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Speaker 1: I want to end on a kind of hopeful note.

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Speaker 1: She says that actually, at the end of November, Deloitte

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Speaker 1: published a separate survey and found that the number of

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Speaker 1: US women using or experimenting with generative AI has tripled

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four compared to men who are using

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Speaker 1: it now two point two times more than they were previously,

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Speaker 1: So that actually helped to narrow the gender gap on

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Speaker 1: artificial intelligence. It's one of the stories I'm recommending to

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Speaker 1: you on the Blomberg terminal and on the website today.

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Speaker 1: It's my Bloombg's J C. Cox. Right, let's get to

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Speaker 1: the main story. This morning. President Joe Biden repeatedly has

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Speaker 1: said that he would not interfere with prosecutions against his son.

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Speaker 1: But on Sunday, he signed a sweeping pardon for Hunter Biden.

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Speaker 1: Joining US now has been big Senior editor Bill ferries, Bill,

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Speaker 1: good morning, and welcome to the program. Biden argues that

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Speaker 1: Hunter was singled out and unfairly prosecuted. What does this

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Speaker 1: pardon mean for Hunter Biden?

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Speaker 6: Well, for I think for Hunter and Biden, this really

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Speaker 6: wipes the slate clean. President Joe Biden's his statement basically said,

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Speaker 6: for you know, a ten year period from I think

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Speaker 6: starting in twenty fourteen all the way forward that anything

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Speaker 6: that Hunter Biden may anything against the United States that

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Speaker 6: he had been involved in or may have been involved in,

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Speaker 6: he is essentially pardoned for. So it wipes the slate clean.

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Speaker 6: But it's, you know, it's one of these issues, frankly,

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Speaker 6: that has dogged President Biden for years now, inquiries into

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Speaker 6: Hunt Biden. He's faced some very political accusations, and he's

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Speaker 6: faced federal charges that he's pled guilty to at some point.

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Speaker 6: So it kind of ends that chapter. But I think

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Speaker 6: there will also be questions about whether it does staying

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Speaker 6: Joe Biden's legacy a little bit because he had insisted

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Speaker 6: for so long that he would never take this step.

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Speaker 1: Well, Trump and Republicans were quick to respond President's elect

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Speaker 1: Trump calling it a miscarriage of justice.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, President President elect Trump really kind of has focused

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Speaker 6: personally on Hunter Biden. Even after Joe Biden was out

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Speaker 6: of the race, President elect Trump was saying, where is

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Speaker 6: Hunter Biden? It was really, I think a successful campaign

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Speaker 6: tactic for Donald Trump to use. And you've had other

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Speaker 6: Republicans saying that the sweeping nature of the pardon, which

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Speaker 6: basically says, you know, the things we knew about and

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Speaker 6: and potentially things that we don't know about whether they

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Speaker 6: exist or not, he's pardoned for so it made some

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Speaker 6: Republicans question whether there were other things out there in

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Speaker 6: Hunter Biden's past that could have been investigated. You also

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Speaker 6: have Democrats frankly saying that you know, Joe Biden has

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Speaker 6: really been someone who's talked about standing up for institutions

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Speaker 6: that some Democrats saying, listen, this is not how you

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Speaker 6: really want to end your presidency, even though I think

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Speaker 6: a lot of people understand listen, it's his son. But

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Speaker 6: if you put we had one Democrat saying he's put

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Speaker 6: his family above country in this case, so I think

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Speaker 6: there's actually going to be some bipartisan criticism that this

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Speaker 6: is how one of the things that will define President

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Speaker 6: Joe Biden's final weeks in office.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Just lastly, what does it mean then for the power

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Speaker 1: of the presidential pardon? We're going to see it wielded

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Speaker 1: more Well.

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Speaker 6: I think you know, the one thing that this move

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Speaker 6: by Joe Biden does is that in some ways it

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Speaker 6: may it may validate Donald Trump's accusations that the justice

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Speaker 6: system is politic I mean, that was basically what Joe

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Speaker 6: Biden said in his pardon announcement, that there are aspects

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Speaker 6: of this case that were infected by politics. I think

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Speaker 6: Donald Trump can embrace that idea as well and say

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Speaker 6: that the prosecutions he's faced have been politically motivated. And

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Speaker 6: I would expect to hear that going forward.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Bill, thank you so much for being with me

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Speaker 1: this morning. Bloomberg's senior editor Bill Ferries. Yes, already lots

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Speaker 1: being written about Biden, President Joe Biden pardoning his son

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Speaker 1: Hunter At Biden. The French finance Minister Antoine Armand says

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Speaker 1: that the government won't accept ultimatums form Marine Le penn

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Speaker 1: over a new budget law, even as the far right

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Speaker 1: leader gave her strongest indications yet that she will topple

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Speaker 1: the administration as soon as this week. Of course, her

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Speaker 1: party in parliament has the largest number of seats altoin

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Speaker 1: armand has been speaking to Bloomberg's Caroline Kunnar in Paris.

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Speaker 3: Let us be very clear, Francis is on the right track.

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Speaker 3: France's economy has got very solid arguments and it needs

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Speaker 3: to be repeated. First of all, as you know, we

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Speaker 3: expect a growth of one point one persons in twenteen

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Speaker 3: to thwey four. It will be above the Eurozone average. Second,

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Speaker 3: we have an inflation under the two percent, which is

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Speaker 3: now stable. And third of all needs to be said,

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Speaker 3: we have an unemployment which is at its lowest in

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Speaker 3: forty years in French, in France, so we have a

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Speaker 3: strong economy. We have solid arguments, and last but not least,

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Speaker 3: we have a clear perspective. Our government, Michelle Bannie's government

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Speaker 3: has a clear commitment to reduce the deficits. It will

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Speaker 3: be done, It needs to be done.

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Speaker 7: It needs to be done. But it's getting very difficult

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Speaker 7: this week because obviously your government faces a possible motion

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Speaker 7: of no confidence and could collapse as soon as this week.

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Speaker 7: Michelle Bannie, the Prime Minister, has already made some concessions,

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Speaker 7: including on prices of electricity. What other concessions are you

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Speaker 7: ready to make?

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Speaker 1: Are you ready to tell us today?

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Speaker 7: In order for Marine Nupen from the National Really to

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Speaker 7: abstain from a vote of no confidence.

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Speaker 3: You are right to remind that my Prime Minister, Michel Banne,

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Speaker 3: is a man of dialogue and compromise and this government

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Speaker 3: in the last week has clearly demonstrated its willingness to

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Speaker 3: ensure that Friends could have a budget through evolution in

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Speaker 3: the budget. And let me remind also that the parliamentary

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Speaker 3: debate is still ongoing and we have to wait until

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Speaker 3: the end of this debate. But as you said, Friends

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Speaker 3: is as a critical time. We have the arguments, we

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Speaker 3: have the fundamentals, we have a perspective to reduce public

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Speaker 3: spending and to cut boring, which is very important for Friends,

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Speaker 3: but for Europe as well. So let's say, let's remind

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Speaker 3: the political leaders in France that we have a common

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Speaker 3: responsibility and that this common responsibility includes voting, adopting passing

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Speaker 3: a budget.

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Speaker 7: That mean there's going to be more compromise more concessions

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Speaker 7: before Monday night, which is the deadline that my Inapen

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Speaker 7: has given you.

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Speaker 3: As I said, the French government doesn't take multim atoms.

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Speaker 3: It's looking at the French parliamentary debate. It's respecting every

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Speaker 3: each and every parliamentary debate that leads to an evolution.

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Speaker 3: We will take into account what is changing, but we

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Speaker 3: won't be blackmailed. We are committed to reduce the deficit.

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Speaker 7: I understand you're willing to perhaps compromise, but myne Open

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Speaker 7: has some specify concessions she wants from the government, including

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Speaker 7: that all pensions be indexed on infation as soon as January,

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Speaker 7: and she also wants the government to give up this

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Speaker 7: plan to abandon some drug reinforcement on these two specific topics.

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Speaker 7: Is there any way to have more concessions from the government.

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Speaker 3: Let's just not just focus on the assemble now because

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Speaker 3: as you know, but it's key. It's key, but it's

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Speaker 3: not enough. And as you say, for a vote of

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Speaker 3: confidence to be adopted at the French Parliament, you would

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Speaker 3: need to have the Socialist Party, the left parties to

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Speaker 3: vote with the far right parties, so it would not

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Speaker 3: only be the responsibility of Marie Lupez party. It would

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Speaker 3: also be the responsibility of French socialist, French ecologists, people

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Speaker 3: who are willing to oppose to Marine Lupen to vote together.

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Speaker 3: It would be a very bad signal politically and economically

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Speaker 3: for these countries, for our country, and for these parties

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Speaker 3: who are saying and claiming that they could say government parties.

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Speaker 7: Does that mean you're trying to negotiate with the socialist party?

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Speaker 7: Not the national reality.

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Speaker 3: We are not focused on with whom we negotiate or not.

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Speaker 3: As I said, the government is a government of dialogue,

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Speaker 3: of respect, of co construction. This budget, this budget has

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Speaker 3: been co constructed. It's not the result of just a

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Speaker 3: government project. It's evolving within the days and the weeks

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Speaker 3: of the parliamentary debate will still be open. But not

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Speaker 3: to blackmail.

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Speaker 7: You're not open to blackmail. But the thing that my

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Speaker 7: inepend wants really is for the government to respect That's

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Speaker 7: what she says, to respect the electorate of the national Valuy.

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Speaker 7: Are you willing to say that the concessions you've already made,

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Speaker 7: for example, are thanks to the national value and that

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Speaker 7: you respect our electorate.

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Speaker 3: We respect every each and every MP and We respect

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Speaker 3: each and every people in France whatever they decided to

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Speaker 3: vote or not to vote, of course, but what's my

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Speaker 3: responsibility as a finance minister is to commit to the

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Speaker 3: five percent target that we decided to have at the

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Speaker 3: beginning of our mandate, not only for friends or for

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Speaker 3: the government, because it's now needed in order that Europe

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Speaker 3: still remain a country, a continent of prosperity. That's what

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Speaker 3: we aim at, and for that we need all respond

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Speaker 3: political leader to be responsible.

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Speaker 7: With these concessions that we've seen in the budget, they're

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Speaker 7: going to cost about ten billion euros. Does that mean

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Speaker 7: you can actually keep this five percent deficit target or

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Speaker 7: do you believe perhaps it will be slightly higher like

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Speaker 7: five point five or perhaps higher?

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Speaker 3: As I told you, our commitment to reduce the budget

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Speaker 3: deficit towards five percent in twenty twenty five and towards

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Speaker 3: three percent in twenty twenty nine is not an option.

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Speaker 3: It is something something we are very carefully looking at.

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Speaker 3: What does this mean? Can you can you actually it

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Speaker 3: means that yes, it means that at every time that

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Speaker 3: we made adjustments on our budget, we compensated it with

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Speaker 3: saving with new measures. It's clearly an important point to

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Speaker 3: underline here we are committed to this five percent target.

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Speaker 3: In twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: Five, that was Fance's finance minister Antoine Arma speaking to

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Speaker 1: our own Carolyn Conna in Paris, and there were moves

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Speaker 1: after that discussion. Of course, the europe this morning is

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Speaker 1: currently down by half of one percent against the US dollar,

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Speaker 1: and the tension really around the French budget continues to mount.

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Speaker 1: Turning to a story in Europe though now businesses in

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Speaker 1: Europe are struggling as more workers take sick days. Aging

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Speaker 1: workforces and more awareness of stress and mental health are

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Speaker 1: partly to blame, but the solutions aren't that easy. Joining

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Speaker 1: us now is Boomberg's Nordic's editor at umlas O. Good

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Speaker 1: morning and welcome to the program. You've written about how

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Speaker 1: Norway is seeing a large number of sick days per worker.

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Speaker 1: What does the data show.

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Speaker 8: In a lot of European nations. You know, the media

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Speaker 8: likes to refer to those countries as the sick men

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Speaker 8: of Europe, but at least according to the OCD, both

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Speaker 8: in terms of public spending on health related benefits and

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Speaker 8: in terms of average sickly days, Norways is the worst

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Speaker 8: in the rankings and what the international organizations, not just

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Speaker 8: OCD have been saying. This largely comes down to very

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Speaker 8: generous sick absence benefits. So in Norway they are at

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Speaker 8: one hundred percent of the worker's wage for the duration

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Speaker 8: of twelve months, and therefore those organizations have urged the

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Speaker 8: Norwegian authorities to curb those benefits.

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Speaker 1: So then I mean, what are the solutions then? Is

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Speaker 1: it that cut BA Actually that's not going to be

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Speaker 1: very popular. And does it mean kind of presenteeism being

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Speaker 1: enforced at work?

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Speaker 8: Well, indeed, presenteeism is not the way that the experts

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Speaker 8: are recommending. I mean, in fact, OCD data says that

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Speaker 8: in terms of productivity, presenteeism would be two to three

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Speaker 8: times worse for productivity than being actually absent. But what

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Speaker 8: the experts are saying at OCD, they say the public

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Speaker 8: policy choices do actually matter and sort of the biggest

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Speaker 8: policy issue across the rich world is the lack of

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Speaker 8: early intervention. So basically it is almost too late to

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Speaker 8: look at someone's long term outlook when absence is more

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Speaker 8: than six months, because by that time they are already

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Speaker 8: more likely to not return to the labor market. And

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Speaker 8: then the research site Netherlands as one of the best

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Speaker 8: examples in taking smart solutions because the Netherlands used to

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Speaker 8: be the sick man of Europe before Norway. But what

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Speaker 8: they did was the shifted responsibility for the system from

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Speaker 8: the state to employers at least to a degree that

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Speaker 8: no other country did, and that brought some success at least.

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Speaker 9: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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