1 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: Dah Welcome to Lake Gigs Live. It is Thursday night, 2 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:15,160 Speaker 1: September twenty ninth, Year. 3 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:17,160 Speaker 2: Of Our Lord, twenty twenty two, brought to you as 4 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:20,040 Speaker 2: always by Academy Sports and Outdoors. We're about to hit 5 00:00:20,079 --> 00:00:22,800 Speaker 2: the road on Friday to head to Oxford, Mississippi. But 6 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:25,280 Speaker 2: we cannot hit the road on Friday until we deliver 7 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:28,159 Speaker 2: another jam pack show on Thursday, which is exactly what 8 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:29,800 Speaker 2: we're about to do. Right now, we are high at 9 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:34,760 Speaker 2: top A glowing a radiant downtown Nashville, Tennessee. Thursday night 10 00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:37,199 Speaker 2: means it's time to talk about the upset Meter. We 11 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:39,519 Speaker 2: will not be fooled, not again after what they did 12 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 2: to us in Week one. We got about five or 13 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 2: six games to touch on there. I'm going to break 14 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 2: down the A and M Mississippi State game. Because so 15 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 2: many of you asked, where was the breakdown the other night? Well, 16 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:50,159 Speaker 2: I'm going to deliver it for you because that's kind 17 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:51,519 Speaker 2: of the way we do things around here. You ask 18 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 2: for it enough and we will deliver. Speaking of asking, 19 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 2: it's a rare move. But in lieu of the Late 20 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,760 Speaker 2: Kick Extra podcast being on hiatus because it's the season, 21 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:02,880 Speaker 2: we're going to open up the mail bag tonight. So 22 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 2: anyone who misses that old Late Kick Extra format, tune 23 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:08,400 Speaker 2: in or stay tuned in tonight and we're going to 24 00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 2: deliver it for you. All that plus Colin, what would 25 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 2: you say, like three or four more best bets we're 26 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:15,760 Speaker 2: gonna add on tonight. By the time we wrap this 27 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 2: here broadcast, we will have three, five, eight, We will 28 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:23,400 Speaker 2: have eight, nine, maybe even ten best bets on the 29 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 2: Roman Middle Express. And if we're not to ten by 30 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:27,280 Speaker 2: the end of the show, we're gonna get there because 31 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 2: we got a very very large board. 32 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:30,399 Speaker 1: We got a very large sheet of games that we like. 33 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 1: This week. 34 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:34,679 Speaker 2: They're watching us in not Hoboken, New Jersey, but Hoboken, Georgia. 35 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 2: They're watching us not in Marietta, Georgia, but in Marietta, Ohio. Raleigh, 36 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:42,319 Speaker 2: North Carolina, just the original, good old fashioned Raleigh tuned 37 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:45,200 Speaker 2: in in Camerillo, California, is tuned in. I cannot in 38 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 2: strong enough terms stress to you that you need to 39 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 2: be following on Instagram at Late Kick Josh. We've got 40 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 2: Friday Night Lines coming up live from Oxford tomorrow night, 41 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 2: where we will be adding more best bets. If you 42 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:00,560 Speaker 2: miss last week, you missed us going three and zero 43 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 2: on Best Bets. 44 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 1: Added. 45 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 2: Also, I've got like a pre announcement announcement here, probably 46 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 2: on the Sunday night show. 47 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 1: I'll be able to let you know. But remember how 48 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:09,960 Speaker 1: we went on. 49 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:11,920 Speaker 2: The road a couple of weeks ago in Auburn for 50 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:13,919 Speaker 2: the Thursday night show. We'll be on the road again 51 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 2: next Thursday night, so lay Cake Live will be on 52 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 2: the road from somewhere. 53 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:20,400 Speaker 1: And as it turns out. 54 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 2: We may be doing some very fancy things with the 55 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 2: ever given Saturday tour next week. I don't want to 56 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:25,520 Speaker 2: spoil it. That's for Sunday, that's not for Thursday night. 57 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:27,079 Speaker 2: So let's dive into the Thursday night show. I'm just 58 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:28,840 Speaker 2: telling you there's a lot going on around here because 59 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 2: of you. Thank you as always for that. Oh and 60 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:35,919 Speaker 2: let's open our cold brew. When I opened the cold 61 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:38,920 Speaker 2: brew on Tuesday night, a lot of you, it turns out, 62 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 2: are unfamiliar with what colbrew is. 63 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 1: I've told you I don't drink on this show or 64 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 1: off the show, and you said, how in. 65 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 2: The world are you drinking cold brew on the show 66 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 2: And you say you don't drink, Well, folks. 67 00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:50,239 Speaker 1: This is coffee. Colbrew coffee. 68 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:52,919 Speaker 2: As as always, we make sure to turn the label 69 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 2: away because you got to pay to have your label. 70 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:57,400 Speaker 1: Shown on this program. 71 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:01,640 Speaker 2: But it's delicious. It's so let's dive into the show 72 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 2: upset alert meter. Where are we looking who's pulling the 73 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 2: upset or who's just pulling the upset? This week, we 74 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 2: didn't cover Michigan Iowa the other night, as you'll notice, 75 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 2: because I wanted to save it for this because Jesse 76 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:16,239 Speaker 2: thinks there's no shot this happens. Producer Jesse and I 77 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 2: have been back and forth all week about this, and 78 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:21,239 Speaker 2: he sends me a little research packet before every show, 79 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 2: and he gave this a two on a scale of 80 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:26,799 Speaker 2: one to ten, a two on the upset alert meter. 81 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:30,120 Speaker 2: I am giving it a seven because I know how 82 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:32,519 Speaker 2: these things tend to go, especially it's the first time 83 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 2: you're out on the road. If you're Michigan, Iowa is 84 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 2: giving up five point eight points per game, which is 85 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:42,720 Speaker 2: it's a good number for a baseball team, To be 86 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 2: honest with you, it's a great number for a football team. 87 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 2: Iowa is five and oh straight up and six and 88 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:51,119 Speaker 2: five and one straight up and six and o versus 89 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 2: the spread in their last six home games, especially against 90 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 2: top five teams. 91 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:57,280 Speaker 1: That's the stat I want you to pay attention to. 92 00:03:57,320 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 2: When they get top five teams in there, they just 93 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 2: play well. So you can either do one of two things. 94 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:06,280 Speaker 2: You can either try and convince yourself drive by drive 95 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:08,360 Speaker 2: how this is going to play out, or you can 96 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 2: just understand in totality how college football sometimes tends to work. Now, 97 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:15,280 Speaker 2: I know that you're thinking like I am. Back to 98 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 2: the Big Ten championship game. That's the last time that 99 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:20,800 Speaker 2: these two teams were on the same field, and Michigan 100 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 2: skull drug Iowa splattered them all over Indianapolis. Forty two 101 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:28,600 Speaker 2: to three was the final score there. I'm not ignoring it. 102 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 2: I think that's why this line is as big as 103 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,839 Speaker 2: it is. Michigan's favored by eleven, by the way, I've 104 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:36,279 Speaker 2: just watched this game too many times, and I've watched, 105 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 2: especially some teams go out on the road for the 106 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:41,880 Speaker 2: first time too many times into these kinds of environments. Now, 107 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:44,599 Speaker 2: I think Michigan did get very lucky that Fox has 108 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 2: this game. So it's noon Eastern, that's the kickoff, So 109 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 2: that's detrimental to Iowa. I still think that they've got 110 00:04:51,560 --> 00:04:54,039 Speaker 2: a decent shot at being there in the fourth quarter. 111 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 2: So I just respect the environment up there enough. I'm 112 00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:59,360 Speaker 2: gonna make that a seven. This one's not gonna be 113 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 2: pretty this LSU at Auburn. What are your thoughts on 114 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:05,760 Speaker 2: this game? By the way, does anyone care? Like the 115 00:05:05,800 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 2: spread is eight right now? Does anyone think the Auburn's 116 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 2: got a shot there? Because I don't, So I'm gonna. 117 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 1: Put the upset alert at three. I just don't see it. 118 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 2: I know all the fancy things to say about Auburn 119 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:24,520 Speaker 2: because if you'll remember a couple of weeks ago, I 120 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 2: said them when I picked Auburn leading up to that 121 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:30,719 Speaker 2: Penn State game. Those things aren't real this year, as 122 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:31,560 Speaker 2: it turns out. 123 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:34,640 Speaker 1: They're just not. Or if they are, they're there. 124 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:38,839 Speaker 2: But you have to have a minimum baseline of performance 125 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 2: that your team's capable of, and I just don't think 126 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:42,040 Speaker 2: Auburn has that. 127 00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 1: TJ. Finley likely not playing in this game. 128 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:48,000 Speaker 2: You take that for whatever you'll take it for, because 129 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:51,240 Speaker 2: it's not like they've they've exactly been revving on all 130 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 2: cylinders offensively with him. 131 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 1: But if Missouri holds onto the. 132 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:58,039 Speaker 2: Ball last week and they beat Auburn, there are some 133 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:00,120 Speaker 2: people who would lead you to believe Brian Harson has 134 00:06:00,120 --> 00:06:02,800 Speaker 2: already been fired, and that may be the case. 135 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 1: Here's what I'm curious about. 136 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 2: If Missouri holds onto the ball last week, and if 137 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:08,919 Speaker 2: you didn't see the end of the game, there was 138 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:12,279 Speaker 2: a touchback to end the game in overtime, the Missouri 139 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:14,039 Speaker 2: is a yard away if the dude just holds onto 140 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:15,160 Speaker 2: the ball as he extends it. 141 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:15,719 Speaker 1: Games over. 142 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:18,040 Speaker 2: So anyway that turned out the way it turned out. 143 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:20,039 Speaker 2: What I want to know is if they score that touchdown, 144 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:22,720 Speaker 2: if they win, what is this line? I think this 145 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 2: line would be LSU minus double digits, And I think 146 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:28,560 Speaker 2: that's dumb because to me, there's no difference in the 147 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 2: Auburn team that will see this week whether they lost 148 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 2: last week or not. And so I'm looking at this 149 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 2: thing and I'm not quite going to put. 150 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:36,799 Speaker 1: Money on LSU. 151 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 2: But boy, I'm thinking about LSU and I'm asking myself, 152 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:43,560 Speaker 2: how many points do they need to win? I think 153 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:46,560 Speaker 2: the number could be twenty. I think the number could 154 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 2: be that low if you don't allow defensive or special 155 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 2: team scoring. I'm just speaking offensively. 156 00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 1: If you play Auburn straight up, twenty points may be good. Enough. 157 00:06:56,880 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 2: I mean, this same team, this same LSU team held 158 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:01,919 Speaker 2: Mississippi State to sixteen at home, and that was a 159 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 2: pretty impressive feat to me. So this one is not 160 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:07,039 Speaker 2: really on my radar. I know it's a single digit 161 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:09,720 Speaker 2: point spread. I'm just telling you this is as favorable 162 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 2: a spot. Also, think about LSU. It's as favorable a 163 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:17,200 Speaker 2: spot as you could possibly be in given your first 164 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 2: SEC West road game. Where else would you rather be? 165 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:23,600 Speaker 2: I know it sounds disrespectful, but it's just the way 166 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:25,880 Speaker 2: it is. Would you rather go to Bama A and 167 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 2: m Arkansas either of the Mississippi schools? 168 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:28,320 Speaker 1: No? 169 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 2: You If you're got having to go on the road 170 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 2: right now in the SEC West, this is where you 171 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 2: want to go. So I think it's a good draw 172 00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:37,600 Speaker 2: for LSU. I put this one at a three. One 173 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 2: that I'm paying much more attention to, even though the 174 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 2: line is bigger. Is West Virginia at Texas. I know 175 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 2: we said earlier in the week when viewers looked like 176 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 2: he'd be available here, But the later we get in 177 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 2: the week, they've continued to split first team reps. According 178 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 2: to Chip Brown, over there at Horns twenty four to seven, 179 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:59,280 Speaker 2: but it sounded at least earlier today, like it may 180 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 2: be another week before quinn Ewers is back. And by 181 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 2: the way, if that's the case, that would put him 182 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 2: making his first start back against Oklahoma instead of West Virginia. 183 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 1: Let's keep eyeballs on that. That's a really, really big deal. 184 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 1: So with West. 185 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:15,760 Speaker 2: Virginia coming in here, the line right now is Texas 186 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 2: minus nine and a half. Texas just had that heartbreaking 187 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 2: loss to Texas Tech. West Virginia is on extended rest 188 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:26,360 Speaker 2: here because they beat Virginia Tech last Thursday night. That's 189 00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 2: the first little dynamic edge that West Virginia may have 190 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 2: in their favor. The other one is Texas's defense was 191 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 2: on the field for one hundred plays last week on 192 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:38,080 Speaker 2: the road, So not only did they lose. Sometimes when 193 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:40,400 Speaker 2: you're on the field that many plays, that is abnormal. 194 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:43,320 Speaker 2: You don't just press some magic button or jump in 195 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 2: some magic cold tub and recuperate physically. Sometimes that stuff lingers, 196 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:52,440 Speaker 2: and if it does, you probably see a little bit 197 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:55,319 Speaker 2: of a higher scoring game here than expected. 198 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 1: I am mad personally. 199 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:59,319 Speaker 2: We didn't jump on the total earlier because it opened 200 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:00,760 Speaker 2: in the mid fifty and it's all the way up 201 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 2: to sixty three now. I tend to think with the 202 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 2: weakness in the Virginia or West Virginia secondary combined with 203 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:08,080 Speaker 2: just the overall fatigue in the second half you may 204 00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 2: see from Texas defensively, think they're gonna be a lot 205 00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:13,079 Speaker 2: of points scored here. They can't afford to play from 206 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 2: behind in Texas, so they really really need a fast start. 207 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 2: Sometimes people say that, and I don't think it's true. 208 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:22,120 Speaker 2: Like Tennessee did not need a fast start last week 209 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:25,400 Speaker 2: against Florida. I think Texas kind of needs a fast 210 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 2: start here, and so I'm putting this upset alert meter 211 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:31,720 Speaker 2: at a six. I'm a little concerned about Texas. And 212 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:35,880 Speaker 2: notice I didn't even mention them being in look ahead mode. Ironically, 213 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 2: I don't think it applies here. I really think their 214 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 2: focus is on West Virginia and getting themselves righted. They've 215 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 2: already got two losses, and this is kind of. 216 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 1: Where you're in limbo. You're on the precipice. 217 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:49,360 Speaker 2: You lose this game, your sub five hundred going into 218 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:51,920 Speaker 2: Dallas next week. No one wants that. Well, outside of 219 00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 2: Morgantown obviously, no one wants that. So I'm gonna put 220 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 2: it at a six. I'm nervous about this one for Texas. 221 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:02,959 Speaker 2: Confident but nervous. Let's go to Alabama Arkansas. We did 222 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:05,320 Speaker 2: the full game breakdown the other night. It has its 223 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 2: own individual video on the channel, so I'm not breaking 224 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 2: the game down. The numbers are always going to lean 225 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 2: Alabama in these spots. The point spreads are always going 226 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 2: to be big. You can't afford to put out Alabama 227 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 2: minus ten. You would get just buried in Alabama money. 228 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:22,880 Speaker 2: So that's why these numbers are as big as they are. However, 229 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:27,240 Speaker 2: as has been documented several times, you remember the last 230 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:29,080 Speaker 2: few times they've gone out on the road. The only 231 00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:32,000 Speaker 2: time that they've gone out in really hardcore, taking care 232 00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 2: of business, old school Obama style was at Mississippi State 233 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 2: last year. I think it was like forty nine to nine. 234 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:39,840 Speaker 2: Other than that, the Florida game, the A and M game, 235 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:41,840 Speaker 2: the Auburn game, and then this year the Texas game 236 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 2: all been really close, and those were at least points 237 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 2: spread wise inferior teams to Alabama. So I look at 238 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:52,719 Speaker 2: it and I did the prediction earlier this week. 239 00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 1: We picked Bama to win. We picked Arkansas to cover. 240 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 2: This one's at a four for me on the upset 241 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 2: meter scale, because as we've seen with they don't start 242 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 2: these games, at least recently, they haven't started these games, 243 00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 2: and it feels like a hornet's nest, But. 244 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 1: Then they pull away. 245 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 2: You can, as it turns out, tell pretty early recently 246 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:14,319 Speaker 2: in these games Bama plays on the road, whether it's 247 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:16,160 Speaker 2: going to be a four quarter knife fight or whether 248 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:19,480 Speaker 2: they're gonna coast, And so I think the first quarter 249 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:21,400 Speaker 2: will tell a lot of that tale this Saturday. 250 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 1: But also here's what's going to be the worst. I'm 251 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:27,080 Speaker 1: preparing you for this in advance. Guys. You know as 252 00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:27,720 Speaker 1: well as I do. 253 00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 2: There's someone out there that's predicting Bama blowouts in every 254 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:35,200 Speaker 2: one of these games, and they've been wrong plenty in 255 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:38,560 Speaker 2: the past year and a half. But when, not if, 256 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 2: but when that Bama team finally puts it all together 257 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:45,040 Speaker 2: again and they play on the road like we're used 258 00:11:45,040 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 2: to them playing, that guy is going to tell you 259 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 2: I told you so. They may be one in seven 260 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 2: in their last eight predictions, but when that one finally hits, 261 00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:57,400 Speaker 2: they're gonna be there. In the comment section. This guy 262 00:11:57,440 --> 00:11:59,440 Speaker 2: only shows up afterwards. By the way, he never lets 263 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 2: you know his ahead of time, but he shows up afterwards. Dude, 264 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:04,640 Speaker 2: this was never going to be close. Bama was always 265 00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:07,679 Speaker 2: going to win and cover this game. Hello, Hello Charlie, 266 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 2: Hello Wayne from Watumka. Hello Larry from Lochapoka. Always showing 267 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:14,959 Speaker 2: up in the comments afterwards to tell you about their prediction. Anyway, 268 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:17,520 Speaker 2: I'm putting a four on this game. I respect the 269 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 2: environment up there. The old wounded hog adage is in 270 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:23,080 Speaker 2: effect this weekend. I'm going to put a four on it. 271 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 2: Let's take a look. They got to run the ball better. 272 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 2: Arkansas has got to run the ball way better than 273 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:29,480 Speaker 2: they did last year against Bama. Two and a half 274 00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:31,840 Speaker 2: yards Perkerry is not going to cut it this Saturday. 275 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 2: This one's off the radar, but I want to put 276 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:36,080 Speaker 2: it on your radar right quick. Oregon State at Utah. 277 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 2: There's no wiggle room for Utah. They already lost that 278 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:41,080 Speaker 2: Florida game. So if you want to talk about them 279 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:43,679 Speaker 2: in the greater playoff picture, which we don't really talk 280 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:45,439 Speaker 2: about much this time of year around here, but if 281 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:48,480 Speaker 2: you want to, they can't lose. They can still make 282 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 2: it if they don't lose again. They can't lose again 283 00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 2: because they lost to Florida already. Oregon State had a 284 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:56,080 Speaker 2: seventeen to fourteen game against USC last week. 285 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:58,080 Speaker 1: They came up on the short end of that. 286 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:02,000 Speaker 2: Dynamics wise, I think this is a bad spot for 287 00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 2: Oregon State. Utah is going to be playing in desperation 288 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 2: mode the rest of the year. And now I will 289 00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:10,719 Speaker 2: tell you they had a big loss at tight end 290 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 2: did Utah this past week. Not only did they lose 291 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 2: their best tight end, they lost a team captain there. 292 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:17,720 Speaker 2: So I don't know if that's going to cost them 293 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:19,320 Speaker 2: this week. I'm just saying that's something to keep an 294 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:21,040 Speaker 2: eye on. That guy's worth a couple of points in 295 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:25,559 Speaker 2: a game, and that's very respectful because most tight ends 296 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 2: aren't worth anything on a point spread, So keep. 297 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:28,760 Speaker 1: An eye on that. 298 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:32,600 Speaker 2: But outside of that, I don't like the dynamic spot 299 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:34,640 Speaker 2: at all this week. This is the kind of game 300 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:38,640 Speaker 2: where even a good team, coming off that heartbreaker and 301 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:41,160 Speaker 2: going on the road in an environment like this against 302 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:44,679 Speaker 2: a desperate team, loses thirty to thirteen. That's just the 303 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 2: kind of spot it is. So I'm gonna put it 304 00:13:47,280 --> 00:13:49,880 Speaker 2: at a four. I respect Oregon State. 305 00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:50,440 Speaker 1: We've been on them. 306 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 2: I've told you they're the sneakiest underrated story on the 307 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:55,120 Speaker 2: West Coast. I don't like the spot for them this week, 308 00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:56,800 Speaker 2: so I'm gonna put that one at a four. 309 00:13:57,800 --> 00:13:58,719 Speaker 1: We didn't go quite as high. 310 00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:00,680 Speaker 2: I had some eights and nine last week week, but 311 00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:04,520 Speaker 2: there was a seven there for Michigan. There's a six 312 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 2: there for Texas. So there's some stuff to keep an 313 00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:09,320 Speaker 2: eye on this week. I've got to give you an 314 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:15,199 Speaker 2: address thirty two twenty Nicholsville Road. No that's not Caneal's address, 315 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:17,679 Speaker 2: but we're going to talk about Canel later. Thirty two 316 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 2: to twenty Nicholsville Road in Lexington, Kentucky. That's in the 317 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:24,120 Speaker 2: South Park shopping Center. What's going on there, you may ask. 318 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 2: You're getting an Academy Sports and Outdoors this weekend grand 319 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:30,320 Speaker 2: opening starting tomorrow all the way through Sunday. They got 320 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:31,920 Speaker 2: a ton of deals, got a ton of specials. 321 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:33,640 Speaker 1: But look, you can. 322 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 2: You can go in there and get anything they're offering, 323 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 2: and I encourage that they are our exclusive partner. Please 324 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:42,880 Speaker 2: don't think I am besmirching the good swag that the 325 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 2: folks at the Lexington Academy are about to give you. 326 00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 2: But there is only one thing that I choose to 327 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:52,040 Speaker 2: drink our colbrew on air out of and that is 328 00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 2: a Pate State chalice of supremacy. And let me tell you, 329 00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 2: if you prove to me that you went to that 330 00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:01,320 Speaker 2: academy this weekend during the Grand Open, you put yourself 331 00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:02,640 Speaker 2: in the running for one of these. I'm going to 332 00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 2: give about ten of them out. I actually just gave 333 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 2: one out on Twitter right before the show. So these 334 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 2: are reserved only for people who just go above and 335 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:12,440 Speaker 2: beyond for the brand. You cannot buy them. We do 336 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 2: not sell these. They're not in the Peate State store 337 00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 2: peytstatematerial dot com by the way, They're not for sale, 338 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 2: but we give them away. 339 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:22,560 Speaker 1: Ten of you are going to get Chawlai this weekend. 340 00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:24,040 Speaker 1: Go to the new. 341 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 2: Academy in Lexington thirty two twenty Nicholsville Road, South Park 342 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:29,560 Speaker 2: Shopping Center. It's going to be a great time there. 343 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:32,880 Speaker 2: I welcome pictures. I welcome photos of your receipts. In fact, 344 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 2: the folks at Academy really prefer the latter more so 345 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:38,080 Speaker 2: than the former. We appreciate them. They make everything possible. 346 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 2: We're going to be on the road this weekend because 347 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:41,800 Speaker 2: of them. I encourage you guys in Lexington to make 348 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:46,280 Speaker 2: a stop there. Really getting used to sipping the cold 349 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 2: brew out of the chalice here. That is the sixth 350 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 2: Academy in the state of Kentucky, but the first in Lexington. 351 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:55,560 Speaker 2: So big weekend. The brand continues to grow. We just 352 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 2: continue to spread our wings. All right, let's do a 353 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:01,120 Speaker 2: game breakdown. We normally don't do game breakdowns on Thursday. 354 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:03,520 Speaker 2: We normally do them all on Tuesday. But I got 355 00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:05,800 Speaker 2: off the air the other night and I was looking 356 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 2: in the comments, and by the way, that SEC Bias 357 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:09,880 Speaker 2: segment had glowing reviews. 358 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:12,040 Speaker 1: Shocker to me, glowing reviews. 359 00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 2: But the biggest negative that we got in our feedback 360 00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:17,520 Speaker 2: from the other night's show was why didn't you do 361 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 2: a breakdown on A and M Mississippi State? And I said, 362 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:24,000 Speaker 2: I don't want to cover so many SEC games. 363 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 1: What do I look like? Do I look like a Homer? 364 00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:29,600 Speaker 1: Of course not Booms would ever say that about me. 365 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 2: But you drive the traffic here, so I want to 366 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:36,360 Speaker 2: spend a couple of minutes here Texas A and M 367 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:39,960 Speaker 2: Mississippi State, Saturday, four o'clock kickoff Eastern. You know where 368 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 2: this game's airing SEC Network. I thought it was on 369 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:45,440 Speaker 2: a I thought it was on a different platform. I'm 370 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:47,680 Speaker 2: just gonna be honest with you. So what's the perception 371 00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:51,600 Speaker 2: versus reality here? What do you think about this game? 372 00:16:51,640 --> 00:16:55,000 Speaker 2: If you're busy living your life and you just you 373 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:57,440 Speaker 2: know what you read in the preseason magazines about these teams, 374 00:16:57,440 --> 00:17:00,080 Speaker 2: what do you think? Well, what you probably don't think 375 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 2: is Mississippi State's favored by over a field goal. That's 376 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 2: probably not what you think, but that's the reality here. 377 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:09,120 Speaker 2: We hopped on them earlier this week at minus two 378 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:10,720 Speaker 2: and it crossed three, and it's up to three and 379 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:13,080 Speaker 2: a half or four, depending on where you look. I 380 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:15,400 Speaker 2: know this is huge for Jimbo Fisher, and everyone knows 381 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:19,280 Speaker 2: it's huge if he has his second loss already before 382 00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:22,119 Speaker 2: they play Bamma next week. I don't think I need 383 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:25,160 Speaker 2: to waste a lot of time explaining to you what 384 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:27,920 Speaker 2: the mood around the program would be. In fact, Sunday night, 385 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:30,160 Speaker 2: we may be doing a Texas A and M mood 386 00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 2: Tracker update if they do indeed lose this game. But 387 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:34,600 Speaker 2: here's what I don't think a lot of people are 388 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:37,399 Speaker 2: talking about. This is a really underrated, huge game from 389 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:40,360 Speaker 2: Mike Leach. Now I know a lot of you probably 390 00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 2: don't pay a lot of attention to the pulse of 391 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 2: the Mississippi State fan base. However I do, and it 392 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 2: may surprise you to know a lot of people are 393 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:51,719 Speaker 2: saying this is a must win. Now, they never actually 394 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:54,520 Speaker 2: mean must win, because in our world on this show, 395 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:57,679 Speaker 2: when you tell us a game is must win, that 396 00:17:57,880 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 2: only applies if the coach is going to lose his 397 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:01,720 Speaker 2: job if he loses the game. Well, Mike Leach is 398 00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:04,400 Speaker 2: not losing his job or anything like that. But there 399 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 2: are a lot of folks in Mississippi State circles who 400 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 2: look at the LSU game a couple of weeks ago 401 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:12,239 Speaker 2: and they're very peeved that they lost that one. They 402 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:13,960 Speaker 2: don't think they should have lost it, but they did, 403 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:16,200 Speaker 2: and they think they've got a special team this year. 404 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:18,720 Speaker 1: And I happen to agree with them. But that doesn't 405 00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:19,360 Speaker 1: mean anything. 406 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:21,639 Speaker 2: If it's just it's written on paper, you got to 407 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,640 Speaker 2: get it done on the field. And they're saying to themselves, well, 408 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:26,600 Speaker 2: if this guy, Michael Leach, of course, if this guy 409 00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:30,320 Speaker 2: doesn't win this game, we're already a two loss team. 410 00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:32,639 Speaker 2: So got the rest of our conference slate to play. 411 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:34,359 Speaker 2: How are we going to be any better than seven 412 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 2: and five. That's the reason they play him. That's why 413 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:39,600 Speaker 2: they get paid a lot of money down here. It's 414 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:43,399 Speaker 2: a pressure cooker of an environment, so there's a lot 415 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 2: of pressure on both head coaches, is what I'm trying 416 00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 2: to tell you, not just Jimbo. 417 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:47,919 Speaker 1: How does Texas A and M do. 418 00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:51,720 Speaker 2: What LSU did, Speaking of which, Mississippi State went down 419 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 2: there and baton Rouge they lost a couple of weeks ago. 420 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:55,520 Speaker 2: How does Texas A and M do that? Well, there 421 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:59,000 Speaker 2: were two things LSU accomplished that It's going to be tough, 422 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 2: quite frankly, Texas A and M to accomplish Number one. 423 00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 2: Jaden Daniels, a quarterback at LSU, I thought played the 424 00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 2: best game we've seen him play. All things considered, he 425 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 2: may have had a better statistical game or to it 426 00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:16,040 Speaker 2: Arizona State. Given the circumstances and given the quality of opposition, 427 00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:17,440 Speaker 2: I thought it was the best we've seen him play. 428 00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 2: He went twenty to thirty seven, two hundred and ten 429 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 2: yards through the air and a touchdown. He ran for 430 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:26,119 Speaker 2: another ninety three yards on sixteen carries, so he, in 431 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:28,720 Speaker 2: many ways was the LSU offense that night. 432 00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:30,600 Speaker 1: But here's the second thing that happened. 433 00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:33,920 Speaker 2: This is something A and M can pull off LSU's 434 00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:38,359 Speaker 2: defense one third down so decisively that night, Mississippi State 435 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:41,320 Speaker 2: was held to three of fourteen on third down. 436 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:43,440 Speaker 1: So here's the blueprint. 437 00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:46,480 Speaker 2: Own third downs defensively, get him off the field and 438 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:48,440 Speaker 2: have your quarterback play the best game of his year 439 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:50,840 Speaker 2: so far, that being Max Johnson for Texas A and M. 440 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:52,960 Speaker 2: You do that, you got a good shot to win. 441 00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 2: Sounds so easy, I'm telling you. 442 00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:56,399 Speaker 1: I just said that. It was so easy for me 443 00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:57,840 Speaker 1: to say. It's a lot different. 444 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 2: Also, it's the first true road environment has gone into 445 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:06,400 Speaker 2: this year. Twenty four points has been enough against well 446 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:09,160 Speaker 2: for every FBS team that's played A and M this year. 447 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 2: You score twenty four, as it turns out, that's good 448 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 2: enough for you to win. So can Mississippi State do that? 449 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:20,840 Speaker 2: They didn't versus LSU. Can they do that? Mississippi State's style, unfortunately, 450 00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:23,960 Speaker 2: kind of cancels out one of the edges that other 451 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:27,240 Speaker 2: teams have had against A and M. Teams have secretly 452 00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:29,000 Speaker 2: kind of been able to run the ball on A 453 00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:31,720 Speaker 2: and M. Mississippi State barely even believes in the word 454 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:34,720 Speaker 2: run They certainly don't do it to a high degree 455 00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 2: at all. So if they were to run the ball effectively, 456 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 2: it would be totally averse to whatever we've become. 457 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:41,520 Speaker 1: Accustomed to with them. 458 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 2: But what they can do, or what they'll need to do, 459 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:47,920 Speaker 2: is the same thing they did in this game last year. 460 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:51,640 Speaker 2: Remember State went into college station in one last year, 461 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:54,840 Speaker 2: and the reason was doing large part to Will Rogers 462 00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:58,320 Speaker 2: throwing it for four hundred and eight yards in three touchdowns. 463 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 2: Now AM's pass the defense is the best in the 464 00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:06,359 Speaker 2: SEC so far this year. So far, have they faced 465 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:09,720 Speaker 2: a quarterback or have they faced an offense as uniquely 466 00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 2: equipped to victimize you through the air as Mississippi State. 467 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,240 Speaker 1: No, they haven't yet, But we've already. 468 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:20,359 Speaker 2: Seen Mississippi State struggle to victimize LSU. Who's to say 469 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:22,400 Speaker 2: that Texas A and M doesn't come in and shut 470 00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 2: him out even more so? Anyway, those are the respective 471 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:26,639 Speaker 2: challenges on the table. Here are a couple of wildcards. 472 00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:30,040 Speaker 2: The first is A and M's without Anya Smith. He 473 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 2: has gone for the year. We're pulling for him. He 474 00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:35,440 Speaker 2: had successful surgery the other day. He's out for the year. 475 00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:38,440 Speaker 2: He was their leading receiver. Evan Stewart's back. He needs 476 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 2: to have a big game. But Anaya Smith, I know 477 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:43,119 Speaker 2: folks at A and M are talking about him, I 478 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:45,200 Speaker 2: haven't heard enough national talk about him this week. 479 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 1: That is a huge blow for Texas. A and M. 480 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,320 Speaker 2: The other thing to keep in mind as a wild 481 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 2: card is A and M very well could just totally 482 00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:57,159 Speaker 2: lock down the red zone defensively. 483 00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 1: In this game. 484 00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 2: Mississippi State needs to score on big explosive plays. 485 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:03,959 Speaker 1: They need to get some sevens. 486 00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:07,199 Speaker 2: From midfield forty forty five yard line. They need to 487 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:09,960 Speaker 2: strike through the air big plays. I don't think they're 488 00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:12,919 Speaker 2: gonna break off many big runs, but that's where they 489 00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:15,040 Speaker 2: can get it done. That's where the difference in the 490 00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:18,720 Speaker 2: game can happen, scoring touchdowns from outside the red zone. 491 00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:21,679 Speaker 2: Once that field constricts a little bit on them, I 492 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:23,720 Speaker 2: don't necessarily like their odds as much. 493 00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:25,720 Speaker 1: Down there a lot of those crossing routes. 494 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,120 Speaker 2: I think A and m's defensive front can be plenty 495 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:33,880 Speaker 2: enough disruptive where those linebackers can just sink really aggravatingly take. 496 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:35,880 Speaker 1: Away all those crossers in the middle. 497 00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 2: And either just make you fade your way to scoring 498 00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:40,560 Speaker 2: or settle for threes and that may not be good 499 00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:42,000 Speaker 2: enough in this game. So let's take a look at 500 00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:43,720 Speaker 2: what Vegas thinks. Let's take a look at what the 501 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:46,600 Speaker 2: model thinks. As I told you, the line is Mississippi 502 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:50,040 Speaker 2: State minus four right now. And there was kind of 503 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:53,960 Speaker 2: a spoiler alert already earlier this week because Mississippi State 504 00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:55,600 Speaker 2: is one of our best bets. Now we got them 505 00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,439 Speaker 2: at minus two, and you see why our model likes 506 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 2: Mississippi State minus six and a half. There are a 507 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,680 Speaker 2: lot of dynamics here. It is indeed a look ahead 508 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:06,920 Speaker 2: spot for A and M with Bama on deck. It's 509 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,840 Speaker 2: their second road game in a row. Because when we 510 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 2: say road game, I mean did you have to get 511 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:15,080 Speaker 2: on a plane to go somewhere? Did you have to 512 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,160 Speaker 2: get on a bus for an extended period to go somewhere? 513 00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:19,760 Speaker 2: A and M played in Dallas last week, Arlington, to 514 00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:21,720 Speaker 2: be exact, and they're going to start bill this week. 515 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 1: They'll be in Tuscaloosa next week. 516 00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:27,280 Speaker 2: It is absurd, by the way, absolutely inexcusable that a 517 00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:30,560 Speaker 2: major college football program is ever on the road three 518 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:35,199 Speaker 2: consecutive weeks. That's just me talking, Okay, so that's what 519 00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,639 Speaker 2: they gave us. I don't get to make the schedules. Unfortunately, 520 00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,160 Speaker 2: yet that's what they gave us. We're gonna Mississippi State 521 00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:43,680 Speaker 2: to win. We're gonna take them to cover and if 522 00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,880 Speaker 2: that does happen, don't miss the Sunday show. 523 00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:52,920 Speaker 1: It's my advice. All right, let's open the mail bag. 524 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:57,040 Speaker 2: I have gotten many complaints from you guys that we 525 00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:58,920 Speaker 2: haven't been doing the Late Kick Extra podcast. 526 00:23:58,920 --> 00:23:59,919 Speaker 1: Well, there's a simple reason for. 527 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,280 Speaker 2: We're in the middle of the season right now, and 528 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,520 Speaker 2: the lay Kick Extra podcast is my favorite thing to 529 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,560 Speaker 2: do and apparently yours as well. Well, it's just all 530 00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:09,720 Speaker 2: mail bags, wall to wall mail bag. We do it 531 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,400 Speaker 2: once a week and it's it's just podcasts. We don't 532 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,199 Speaker 2: ever upload it onto the YouTube channel. Maybe portions of it, 533 00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,640 Speaker 2: but not all of it. Anyway, if you've never seen 534 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,560 Speaker 2: us do that, just pay attention, cause here's what it's like. 535 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 2: PJ hit us up and said earlier in the I 536 00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:27,040 Speaker 2: don't know what that word is. No, I'm not saying 537 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,520 Speaker 2: that out loud. Earlier in the word, PJ said he 538 00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:33,080 Speaker 2: made a bold prediction of Florida State winning the ACC 539 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:37,639 Speaker 2: I remember this, he continues, You featured it on the show, 540 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,439 Speaker 2: and you gave it a nine point twenty five on 541 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:43,680 Speaker 2: the boldness scale. What would you give that prediction? Now, 542 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,239 Speaker 2: we did a bunch of bold prediction segments and I 543 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,680 Speaker 2: gave on a scale of one to ten, how bold 544 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,400 Speaker 2: I thought the predictions were. PJ went off the deep 545 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,680 Speaker 2: end in my opinion and he said, Florida State wins 546 00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:59,480 Speaker 2: the ACC. Well, here we are early October. Florida State's undefeated. 547 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,280 Speaker 2: I think they've got a great shot against Wake Forest 548 00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,880 Speaker 2: this week, and that would make them three to zero 549 00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:07,120 Speaker 2: in conference plays. So we're looking at Clemson and NC 550 00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:11,000 Speaker 2: State playing this week. Mind you, all of these teams, 551 00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:12,960 Speaker 2: all of the best teams in the ACC are in 552 00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:17,240 Speaker 2: the same division. Clemson, Florida State, Sarah huse sneaking around 553 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:21,040 Speaker 2: the chicken coop there, undefeated, NC State, Wake They're all 554 00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:24,879 Speaker 2: over there in the Atlantic and the coastal is just 555 00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:28,040 Speaker 2: a cute, fun story, but the Atlantic is where the 556 00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:32,080 Speaker 2: action is. So we got Clemson and NC State playing 557 00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 2: this week. Obviously you've got a conference loss there for someone. 558 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:38,440 Speaker 2: I really like Florida State's chances against wake They are 559 00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:39,560 Speaker 2: one of our best bets. 560 00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:41,439 Speaker 1: We got them at minus five. The line is minus 561 00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 1: seven now. 562 00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:45,679 Speaker 2: Certainly, if you were to predict them to win the 563 00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,199 Speaker 2: ACC given what we've seen, I would not put a 564 00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:51,200 Speaker 2: nine point twenty five on the boldness scale anymore. I 565 00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:55,439 Speaker 2: would still make it about a seven point five. Here's 566 00:25:55,520 --> 00:26:00,160 Speaker 2: the schedule. They are playing Wake this week. They they 567 00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:03,520 Speaker 2: go to NC State next week, and they've got Clemson 568 00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,960 Speaker 2: the week after that. So the next three weeks, boy, 569 00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:10,560 Speaker 2: that tells the tale really on Florida State season. Even 570 00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:12,920 Speaker 2: if they can go two and one in that stretch, 571 00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:14,880 Speaker 2: look at what they got the rest of the way. 572 00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:15,720 Speaker 1: They got Georgia Tech. 573 00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:19,080 Speaker 2: They go to Miami, No one cares going to Miami. 574 00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:25,080 Speaker 2: You probably outpace them in attendance down there at Syracuse, Louisiana, Florida. 575 00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:26,639 Speaker 2: I'm gonna get back to what I said about Miami 576 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,200 Speaker 2: in a second. I'm gonna put this at a seven 577 00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:29,919 Speaker 2: and a half right now. 578 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:30,680 Speaker 1: How does that sound? 579 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 2: A seven and a half, which will radically change one 580 00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:35,600 Speaker 2: way or the other once we see those next two weeks. 581 00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:38,600 Speaker 2: The odds to win the ACC right now updated as 582 00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,840 Speaker 2: of today, Clemson's the favorite. They're minus one forty. N 583 00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,800 Speaker 2: C State is next in line, as is Miami. 584 00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:45,920 Speaker 1: Jesse, Is that right? 585 00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:50,919 Speaker 2: What Jesse said for some reason, Okay, I am confidently 586 00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:53,360 Speaker 2: telling you Florida State has a better shot to win 587 00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:58,280 Speaker 2: the ACC right now than Miami. Odds makers disagree. But anyway, Clemson, 588 00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:00,480 Speaker 2: n C State, Miami, Florida State, those you were top four. 589 00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:04,439 Speaker 2: That's gonna change because NC State or Clemson one of 590 00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,120 Speaker 2: the other are going to lose to the other this weekend. 591 00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,359 Speaker 2: And if Florida State is indeed able to beat Wake, 592 00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,400 Speaker 2: then boy, it's game on over there. So the next 593 00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,280 Speaker 2: two weeks will be like a shooting gallery in the 594 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:18,240 Speaker 2: ACC Atlantic. I said what I said about Miami there, 595 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:24,480 Speaker 2: about the home field. 596 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:24,040 Speaker 1: I don't. I'm not a fan. I'm not. I was 597 00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:24,760 Speaker 1: talking to someone the. 598 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:28,680 Speaker 2: Other day who played, who played well, played at Florida State, 599 00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:30,680 Speaker 2: but kind of back in the day, man, when the 600 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 2: Orange Bowl was still around. Even the rival players missed 601 00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:38,959 Speaker 2: the Orange Bowl. Even the rival players do. And I 602 00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:41,600 Speaker 2: was a kid growing up watching games at the Orange Bowl, 603 00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:43,719 Speaker 2: not in person. I never got to be there in person. 604 00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:46,600 Speaker 2: But you look at that environment down there right now, 605 00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,199 Speaker 2: And if you want to tell me that one of 606 00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:52,600 Speaker 2: the things that needs to return about Miami football is 607 00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,520 Speaker 2: a better game day environment, I can't disagree with you, 608 00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,399 Speaker 2: But I don't know how you accomplished that, because you 609 00:27:58,440 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 2: can't just clap your hand. 610 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,399 Speaker 1: Whoop, Here comes the Orange Bowl back up from the dust. 611 00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:06,480 Speaker 2: I know they have plans down there, at least on paper, 612 00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:08,320 Speaker 2: for it on campus facility. 613 00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 1: I don't know how feasible that is. I have no clue. 614 00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:11,600 Speaker 1: I don't know what the story is there. 615 00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:15,240 Speaker 2: But when I say that about Miami, it's not because 616 00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:16,160 Speaker 2: I don't like Miami. 617 00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:17,640 Speaker 1: It's actually the opposite. 618 00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,879 Speaker 2: I wish what used to exist as a Saturday environment 619 00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:23,919 Speaker 2: down there still existing. All right, let's move on. This 620 00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:29,120 Speaker 2: is going to be unpleasant too, Sippy sip here. Things 621 00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:30,080 Speaker 2: are not all well in. 622 00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:33,720 Speaker 1: East Lansing right now, So before before we get a 623 00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:34,760 Speaker 1: little doomy and gloomy. 624 00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:37,760 Speaker 2: If you're watching the show live, please click the thumbs 625 00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 2: up button and subscribe to the channel. Here's a question 626 00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:45,280 Speaker 2: from at grumpy old Sarge. He said, how are Mississippi 627 00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:46,680 Speaker 2: or not Mississippi State? 628 00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:46,880 Speaker 1: Here? 629 00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:50,200 Speaker 2: Colins start here in stem Sarge said, how are Michigan 630 00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:53,440 Speaker 2: State fans feeling about that big contract for mel Tucker 631 00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:56,360 Speaker 2: given the level of performance so far this year? Well, 632 00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:59,360 Speaker 2: I don't know, because I'm not among them every day. 633 00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:03,560 Speaker 2: But we have a fairly large contingent of Michigan State 634 00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:07,200 Speaker 2: fans who watched the show. They're not happy, but there's 635 00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:10,880 Speaker 2: a difference in being unhappy and being. 636 00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:12,960 Speaker 1: Against your head coach. 637 00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:16,680 Speaker 2: They're paying him a lot of money ninety five million 638 00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:19,520 Speaker 2: dollars over a ten year period, and hold on just 639 00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:24,360 Speaker 2: a second to carry the four space that is nine 640 00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:26,960 Speaker 2: point five million dollars per year. Didn't even need Status 641 00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:30,000 Speaker 2: Info to tell me that you gotta do better. I 642 00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:32,040 Speaker 2: think Meltucker knows that. I think everyone there knows that. 643 00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:34,280 Speaker 2: I think the fan base knows that. Now here's the 644 00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:36,680 Speaker 2: big danger in having a year like they. 645 00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:37,320 Speaker 1: Had last year. 646 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,840 Speaker 2: They had a great season and it was well above 647 00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:45,040 Speaker 2: anyone's expectation level, and the danger is that becomes the 648 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:51,000 Speaker 2: new expectation period moving forward. And the reality is last 649 00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:54,840 Speaker 2: year's season, you know, eleven and two, that is very 650 00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:58,200 Speaker 2: much outside the norm for what Michigan State football has been. 651 00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:01,400 Speaker 2: It's very much out side the norm for what you 652 00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,760 Speaker 2: should reasonably be able to expect from them. Now, mel 653 00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,920 Speaker 2: Tucker and his staff they look at that and they say, well, 654 00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:12,040 Speaker 2: we're going to totally redefine what a reasonable expectation is 655 00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:16,080 Speaker 2: for Michigan State, that's all well and good. I'm speaking 656 00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:19,480 Speaker 2: outside of the mel Tucker era. Well, you go through 657 00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:22,120 Speaker 2: what you went through last year. You have really good 658 00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,800 Speaker 2: injury luck, you have good turnover luck, and those things 659 00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,520 Speaker 2: can change year to year. And the fact is they've 660 00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:31,320 Speaker 2: come into this year and they lost guys like Kenneth 661 00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:35,520 Speaker 2: Walker the third obviously, but also if you just change 662 00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:39,400 Speaker 2: some of those luck sort of indicators that you had 663 00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:42,880 Speaker 2: last year and you still can't run the ball and 664 00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:44,959 Speaker 2: you're getting lit up over the top, you got some 665 00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:47,880 Speaker 2: of the same problems that you had last year. This 666 00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:51,560 Speaker 2: is what happens. You go to Washington and you get humbled. 667 00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:56,440 Speaker 2: You play Minnesota at home, you get humbled. Now, if 668 00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:59,840 Speaker 2: this were a programs starting from scratch and you didn't 669 00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:04,000 Speaker 2: see what you saw last year, then you wouldn't be happy, 670 00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:06,200 Speaker 2: but you wouldn't have that frame of reference. But all 671 00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,280 Speaker 2: of a sudden, when you tasted what it could be like, 672 00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:11,320 Speaker 2: and that feels like you're just going backwards now, they're not. 673 00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:12,720 Speaker 1: Happy at all. 674 00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:15,480 Speaker 2: But I think that there's also a healthy amount of 675 00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:18,840 Speaker 2: understanding that Okay, we're not quite going to slip into 676 00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:23,320 Speaker 2: this mold where our expectations are that warped. You've always 677 00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:25,560 Speaker 2: got to be able to bake in a bad season. 678 00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:29,200 Speaker 2: And this is where the newer age thinking in college 679 00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:32,640 Speaker 2: football I don't sort of align with all the time. 680 00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:35,760 Speaker 2: There's a newer age line of thinking that goes a 681 00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:39,240 Speaker 2: little something like this. Okay, it used to be that 682 00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:41,560 Speaker 2: every now and then you just have a seven and 683 00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:43,120 Speaker 2: five year or a six and six year. 684 00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:44,560 Speaker 1: But here's how we're gonna wrect by that. 685 00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:48,840 Speaker 2: We're going to eradicate that as a very possibility for 686 00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:51,000 Speaker 2: our program because we're just gonna pay our coach a 687 00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:54,840 Speaker 2: lot of money. Now, Tucker is who he is regardless 688 00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:59,240 Speaker 2: of what you pay him. Michigan State football and the realities, 689 00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:03,360 Speaker 2: in some case limitations, they are what they are regardless 690 00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:05,959 Speaker 2: of how much you pay your head coach. But the 691 00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:08,240 Speaker 2: more you pay the head coach, the more you think 692 00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:12,560 Speaker 2: you can just microwave away those issues, and you can't. 693 00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:17,520 Speaker 2: So in some cases just warps what the expectation level is. 694 00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,440 Speaker 2: But the reality is the guy is who he is. 695 00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:23,920 Speaker 2: I'm not saying that pejoratively. I'm literally saying Meltucker is 696 00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:25,840 Speaker 2: who he is. It's not like if I go from 697 00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:28,680 Speaker 2: nine point five million a year to eleven and a 698 00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:31,320 Speaker 2: quarter a year. He'll win two more games for me 699 00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:33,120 Speaker 2: this year. No, I'll just pay him a lot more 700 00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:35,080 Speaker 2: money to do what he would have done anyway. 701 00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:40,080 Speaker 1: And I'm not sure. 702 00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:43,760 Speaker 2: I'm not sure locally, I'm not sure inside the Michigan 703 00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:47,360 Speaker 2: State bubble. How different the expectation is year of a 704 00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,640 Speaker 2: year for the program. I'm just telling you nationally right now. 705 00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:55,120 Speaker 2: Last year was great, but the perception is not that 706 00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:58,120 Speaker 2: Michigan State pulled right up to the table with the 707 00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:01,680 Speaker 2: Ohio States and Bama's of world. There's still a ways 708 00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:06,440 Speaker 2: to go. You don't just apply one code of paint 709 00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:09,160 Speaker 2: or in this case, a season and all of a 710 00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:12,200 Speaker 2: sudden equal what they have in those places, because they've 711 00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:14,160 Speaker 2: got layers and layers and layers of paint. 712 00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:15,800 Speaker 1: They've done it over years and years and years. 713 00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:18,640 Speaker 2: They're just getting started at Michigan State. So that's the 714 00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:20,520 Speaker 2: way I look at it now. The question was how 715 00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:23,920 Speaker 2: Michigan State fans look at it. I think it's probably 716 00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:26,840 Speaker 2: true that because of what they're paying in a lot 717 00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,120 Speaker 2: of people think they reserve the right to not be patient, 718 00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:31,840 Speaker 2: and a lot of people reserve the right to you know, 719 00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:34,680 Speaker 2: have a little bit more microwave mentality about the way 720 00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:35,320 Speaker 2: they look at it. 721 00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:37,640 Speaker 1: That's your business, that's not my business. 722 00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:41,320 Speaker 2: I'm just saying I have not gotten what I would 723 00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:44,120 Speaker 2: expect from them, but I'm not shocked that I haven't 724 00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:44,560 Speaker 2: gotten it. 725 00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:45,440 Speaker 1: If that makes sense. 726 00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,560 Speaker 2: Now, if that aligns with Michigan State thinking, it's all 727 00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:51,440 Speaker 2: the better and it will be a lot more harmonious 728 00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:53,760 Speaker 2: this Christmas for you. But I'm not quite sure that's 729 00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:56,600 Speaker 2: the case. Next up, this is an interesting question here 730 00:33:57,200 --> 00:33:59,400 Speaker 2: college football playoff. We don't normally talk about it this 731 00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:04,400 Speaker 2: time of year, but this is an interesting question. Daniel said, 732 00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:09,000 Speaker 2: at this point in the season, do you believe a 733 00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:12,160 Speaker 2: first time team can make the playoff? 734 00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:14,120 Speaker 1: And if so, who so? 735 00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:16,400 Speaker 2: Daniel's talking about teams that have never made the playoff 736 00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:18,120 Speaker 2: a la Cincinnati last year. 737 00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:19,200 Speaker 1: In Michigan last year. 738 00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:21,440 Speaker 2: We had two out of the four last year that 739 00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:25,239 Speaker 2: were newbies, first timers. The first thing I think we 740 00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:27,240 Speaker 2: need to do is remind you who's made the playoff. 741 00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:31,880 Speaker 2: Tuse some people, including us earlier today, some people have 742 00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:35,960 Speaker 2: forgotten that Florida State has made the playoff. It was 743 00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:39,240 Speaker 2: way back in the day. First year actually twenty fourteen. 744 00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:43,040 Speaker 2: Oregon has made the playoff, Washington has made it, Michigan 745 00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:46,520 Speaker 2: States made it sincey last year, made it, Notre Dame 746 00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:48,919 Speaker 2: a couple times, Georgia a couple times, so you remember those. 747 00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:51,200 Speaker 2: But I just want to remind you if I don't 748 00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:53,560 Speaker 2: mention Washington here because they've already made it, Florida States, 749 00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:54,440 Speaker 2: because they've already made it. 750 00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,600 Speaker 1: Who hasn't made it that's got the best shot? 751 00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:01,759 Speaker 2: Well, the current odds to win the national championship are 752 00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:06,239 Speaker 2: like this. Bama and Georgia are co favorites to win 753 00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:09,319 Speaker 2: it all. Ohio State's right behind them, and then there's 754 00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:12,000 Speaker 2: a big drop off and then it's Clemson at fourth, 755 00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:17,520 Speaker 2: USC at fifth, and Michigan at sixth. So five of 756 00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:22,680 Speaker 2: the top six right now would be repeat playoff appearance types. 757 00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:26,120 Speaker 2: USC is the only one that hasn't made it before 758 00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:28,960 Speaker 2: that's listed up there near the top of the odds 759 00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:32,759 Speaker 2: to win it all. So obviously USC has an opportunity 760 00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:35,880 Speaker 2: to pull this off because if they go undefeated, or 761 00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:38,319 Speaker 2: if they just have one loss and they're the Pac 762 00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:41,920 Speaker 2: twelve champ and they're USC, it matters. 763 00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:42,759 Speaker 1: Trust me, they're in. 764 00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:44,799 Speaker 2: I don't have much of a question about that they're 765 00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:48,240 Speaker 2: in if they win the Pac twelve with one loss 766 00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:48,680 Speaker 2: or less. 767 00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:49,239 Speaker 1: I think they're in. 768 00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:54,480 Speaker 2: Penn State is in an interesting situation. Let's say that 769 00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:56,680 Speaker 2: they've got a stretch coming up at Penn State where 770 00:35:56,680 --> 00:36:00,040 Speaker 2: they play at Michigan, they got Minnesota at home, and 771 00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:02,760 Speaker 2: they got Ohio State at home. Check the schedule out. 772 00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:05,640 Speaker 2: Let's say they go two and one in that stretch. 773 00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:08,960 Speaker 2: Let's say they beat Michigan. Let's say they beat Minnesota, 774 00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:11,560 Speaker 2: they lose to Ohio State, and let's say that's their 775 00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:15,279 Speaker 2: only loss, but Ohio State runs the table, so Penn 776 00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:17,680 Speaker 2: State can't go to the Big Ten championship game. I 777 00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:21,440 Speaker 2: would venture to think that a one loss Penn State, 778 00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:24,719 Speaker 2: whose only loss is to probably the eventual Big Ten 779 00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:26,879 Speaker 2: champ I think they've got a pretty good shot there. 780 00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:28,680 Speaker 2: And that's going to be a tough stretch to go 781 00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:33,080 Speaker 2: two to one against, especially with how good Minnesota looks now, 782 00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:37,160 Speaker 2: but not impossible. They've already gotten through a fairly treacherous 783 00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:40,360 Speaker 2: opening start to their season. So I think Penn State's 784 00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:41,720 Speaker 2: in this conversation Utah. 785 00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:42,799 Speaker 1: We've talked about them. 786 00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:46,480 Speaker 2: Utah has no margin for error, but Utah is still 787 00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,160 Speaker 2: sitting there at USC's got to come to them in 788 00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:50,360 Speaker 2: a few weeks. 789 00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:53,800 Speaker 1: I think Utah a one loss Pac twelve champ. 790 00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:57,359 Speaker 2: Absolutely in, especially because their loss is on the road 791 00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:00,160 Speaker 2: to an SEC team and where they could have they 792 00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:03,000 Speaker 2: could have easily scheduled down in week one and not. 793 00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:03,520 Speaker 1: Lost the game. 794 00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:05,040 Speaker 2: So I don't think they're gonna be puished all that 795 00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:07,160 Speaker 2: much for that. The interesting team in this whole thing 796 00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:10,799 Speaker 2: is Minnesota, because Minnesota is over there in the Big 797 00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:16,080 Speaker 2: Ten West, so unlike Penn State, they don't have a 798 00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:19,560 Speaker 2: bunch of Michigan's in Ohio states in their division. So 799 00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:22,799 Speaker 2: with Minnesota, man, they look ultra impressive. 800 00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:23,759 Speaker 1: They already went. 801 00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:26,480 Speaker 2: To Michigan State and got to win. And their schedule, 802 00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:29,120 Speaker 2: by the way, does not have Ohio State on it. 803 00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:32,200 Speaker 2: It does not have Michigan on it. Their toughest remaining 804 00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:35,680 Speaker 2: game is at Penn State. White out game. By the way, 805 00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:38,200 Speaker 2: at Penn State. I'm already dressed for it. And that 806 00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:43,240 Speaker 2: is the twenty second of October. Elsewhere, if you're listening 807 00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:46,239 Speaker 2: on podcasts, you start to realize how real this thing 808 00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:50,880 Speaker 2: could get. They play Perdue this weekend double digit favorite. 809 00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:54,160 Speaker 2: They go to Illinois at Penn State. I just mentioned 810 00:37:54,320 --> 00:38:01,839 Speaker 2: Rutgers at Nebraska, Northwestern Iowa at Wisconsin. That team right there, Minnesota, 811 00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:05,520 Speaker 2: even if they lose at Penn State, they will win 812 00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:09,880 Speaker 2: the Big Ten West. They will go to Indianapolis, and 813 00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:13,000 Speaker 2: they'll be a tough out for someone. My question becomes this, 814 00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:16,480 Speaker 2: what if let's just allow our minds to wonder for 815 00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:16,960 Speaker 2: a second. 816 00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:19,799 Speaker 1: What if they're undefeated and. 817 00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:21,640 Speaker 2: They go to the Big Ten championship game and they 818 00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:23,520 Speaker 2: lose competitively. 819 00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:24,959 Speaker 1: To Ohio State. 820 00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:28,640 Speaker 2: What if that were to happen. What kind of shot 821 00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:31,600 Speaker 2: does Minnesota have? You believe that senence just came out 822 00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:33,120 Speaker 2: of my mouth on the show. What kind of shot 823 00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:36,680 Speaker 2: does Minnesota have? Minnesota's a good team, They're rated in 824 00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:38,040 Speaker 2: the jpeople, They're a good team. 825 00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:40,200 Speaker 1: N C State is another team. 826 00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:42,040 Speaker 2: They've got Clemson on deck this week, so we'll know 827 00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:44,400 Speaker 2: a whole lot more about them after that. So I 828 00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,440 Speaker 2: think those are the teams Southern cal Penn State, Utah, Minnesota, 829 00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:49,520 Speaker 2: n C State. None of them have ever made the 830 00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:51,919 Speaker 2: playoffs before. Those are the teams that I'm looking at. 831 00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:55,400 Speaker 2: So I still think we've got a half decent shot 832 00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:57,680 Speaker 2: at having some fresh blood in the playoff this year. 833 00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:01,760 Speaker 2: The next question is a big challenge, Oh, huge challenge 834 00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:04,920 Speaker 2: for me, And well, let's just take a look at it. 835 00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:12,960 Speaker 2: Danny hit us up, d A N I Danny, and 836 00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:15,160 Speaker 2: Danny asked question. A lot of you have asked, how 837 00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:19,279 Speaker 2: does Danny Canal have a platform? And we're not talking 838 00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:21,360 Speaker 2: about social media accounts. All you have to do is 839 00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:24,120 Speaker 2: start an account, and you've got an account. But I mean, 840 00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:27,839 Speaker 2: Canal's worked everywhere. He's worked for ESPN, he currently works 841 00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:31,120 Speaker 2: for us here. He's does work with us all the time. 842 00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:33,480 Speaker 2: I do stuff with him all the time. He's on 843 00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:38,880 Speaker 2: Sirius XM he and oh Man Sorr. It's not because 844 00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:40,759 Speaker 2: of who we're talking about that I coughed. I had 845 00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:44,040 Speaker 2: a tickle in my throat. Canal's all over the place. 846 00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:46,480 Speaker 2: So he's got big platform, huge platform. 847 00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:47,120 Speaker 1: Big following. 848 00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:50,000 Speaker 2: Played at Florida State, so so everyone knows Danny and 849 00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:51,480 Speaker 2: everyone's got an opinion on Danny. 850 00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:52,640 Speaker 1: Let me tell you one of the. 851 00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:56,799 Speaker 2: Biggest crushing disappointments of my life, biggest disappointment, or one 852 00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:59,360 Speaker 2: of them in recent memory for me, is when I 853 00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:02,239 Speaker 2: got to know can and I realized he's a good guy. 854 00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:04,239 Speaker 2: Because I didn't want him to be a good guy 855 00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:07,600 Speaker 2: because he's got horrific playoff takes. I mean, just within 856 00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:11,359 Speaker 2: hours of us going on air earlier today, the man 857 00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:14,040 Speaker 2: said people need to stop complaining for them breaking into 858 00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:17,080 Speaker 2: college football games for Aaron Judge at bats at this point, 859 00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:21,000 Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure that he just gauges hardcore college football fans. 860 00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:23,840 Speaker 1: Sees what they think, and then just takes the other. 861 00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:26,120 Speaker 2: Side for argument's sake, because there's no way that he 862 00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:28,879 Speaker 2: actually believes some of that. But I feel the same 863 00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:30,600 Speaker 2: way you do a lot of times when he says 864 00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:32,320 Speaker 2: that sort of thing. So I wanted Danny to be 865 00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:34,759 Speaker 2: a bad guy. So we've ended up doing a lot 866 00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:37,480 Speaker 2: of work together. We covered the National Championship together last year, 867 00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:42,400 Speaker 2: and it really really threw me for an emotional loop 868 00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:44,840 Speaker 2: when I found out how likable he is. I know 869 00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:46,319 Speaker 2: a lot of you don't want to hear this, but 870 00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:49,719 Speaker 2: I've got to, in good conscience tell you, great guy, 871 00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:52,080 Speaker 2: stand up guy, character guy. 872 00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:54,160 Speaker 1: Horrific takes a lot of the time. 873 00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:58,520 Speaker 2: But if I could have met a jerk, if Danny 874 00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:01,120 Speaker 2: would just be morally bankrupt for me, that would have 875 00:41:01,160 --> 00:41:03,799 Speaker 2: really completed the picture, because then I could just I 876 00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:06,880 Speaker 2: could just not like him period, But it really really 877 00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:09,640 Speaker 2: messes with you mentally. Now I know other people who 878 00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:11,920 Speaker 2: feel this way too. It really messes with you because 879 00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:13,600 Speaker 2: you want to do what you just saw in this 880 00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:16,640 Speaker 2: highlight here to him. You probably can't because you don't 881 00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:18,920 Speaker 2: have the physical statue of some of those acc defenders, 882 00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:23,080 Speaker 2: but figuratively, sometimes you just want to clean his clock. 883 00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:25,239 Speaker 1: But then you meet him. 884 00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:28,960 Speaker 2: And he's the nicest guy, just the sweetest guy, just 885 00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:32,680 Speaker 2: the most stand up dude, and you're conflicted and you 886 00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:35,640 Speaker 2: walk away and you have this puzzled look on your 887 00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:37,680 Speaker 2: face and he still has that grin on his face, 888 00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:40,680 Speaker 2: and it just sucks. I don't like it, don't I 889 00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:42,239 Speaker 2: don't even like the way I feel talking about it 890 00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:46,080 Speaker 2: right now. So you know, every now and then, here's 891 00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:48,120 Speaker 2: what hurts me. Every now and then, Danie'll say something 892 00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:51,279 Speaker 2: like earlier today, you know, he said something about what 893 00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:53,359 Speaker 2: a clossing up there at Wake Forest has been saying 894 00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:54,160 Speaker 2: about the environment. 895 00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:56,000 Speaker 1: They'll get down in Tallahassee this week, And I say, 896 00:41:56,080 --> 00:41:58,480 Speaker 1: you know what, I agree. I agree with that, Danny. 897 00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:01,000 Speaker 2: And then he gives us Aaron Judge take, and I 898 00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:03,560 Speaker 2: just tweet out the care beer suicide gift if you know. 899 00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:05,520 Speaker 2: If you follow me on Twitter, you know, and if 900 00:42:05,520 --> 00:42:07,399 Speaker 2: you don't follow me on there at Lake kick Josh. 901 00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:11,319 Speaker 2: So I want to bash him, and sometimes we can 902 00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:15,480 Speaker 2: fairly bash him, but as a guy, unfortunately I can't 903 00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:19,520 Speaker 2: bash him. Pretty good, dude, let's continue. This was another 904 00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:20,560 Speaker 2: interesting question here. 905 00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:24,320 Speaker 1: Joe said, what would a JP pole of the Big twelve? 906 00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:25,440 Speaker 1: Only look like? 907 00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:28,360 Speaker 2: There's more parody in that league than any league anywhere, 908 00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:30,160 Speaker 2: and I would love to see a JP pole around that. 909 00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:33,600 Speaker 2: This is a good idea, and we have the numbers. 910 00:42:33,680 --> 00:42:35,520 Speaker 2: So I figured, Joe, you know what, why don't we 911 00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:37,799 Speaker 2: give him to you the JP pole? Those are our 912 00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:41,240 Speaker 2: own internal power ratings, and I put out the generic 913 00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:45,439 Speaker 2: national version every Tuesday, and then I have to lock 914 00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:46,160 Speaker 2: the door from the. 915 00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:47,240 Speaker 1: Torch and pitchfork crowd. 916 00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:50,720 Speaker 2: But if you just filtered it for Big twelve teams, 917 00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:51,719 Speaker 2: how would it look? 918 00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:54,440 Speaker 1: Now? Remember the criteria here is not ranking. 919 00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:56,680 Speaker 2: That's why Kansas is going to be lower on here 920 00:42:57,040 --> 00:42:58,640 Speaker 2: than they would be if I were filling out an 921 00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:02,440 Speaker 2: AP pole ballot. But this is just a measure of 922 00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:04,640 Speaker 2: who would be favored against two according to our model 923 00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:07,799 Speaker 2: on a neutral field. Tomorrow, Oklahoma we've got is the 924 00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:11,360 Speaker 2: number one team. They're number eight overall nationally. 925 00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:13,000 Speaker 1: Texas is number two. 926 00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:17,080 Speaker 2: We have them eleventh overall nationally, Oklahoma State number three. 927 00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:22,000 Speaker 2: We have them twelfth overall nationally. Kansas State is the 928 00:43:22,120 --> 00:43:24,760 Speaker 2: number four team in the Big twelve according to the model. 929 00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:28,080 Speaker 2: I disagree with that, but it's the model, it's not me. 930 00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:33,960 Speaker 2: We have Kansas State twentieth nationally. Baylor is fifth. We 931 00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:39,080 Speaker 2: have them twenty first, Iowa State sixth at number twenty 932 00:43:39,120 --> 00:43:43,640 Speaker 2: six nationally. TCUs right behind them at number seven. We 933 00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:47,239 Speaker 2: have them twenty eighth nationally. Texas Tech is number eight. 934 00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:52,520 Speaker 2: We have them thirty second nationally. There's Kansas at number nine. 935 00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:57,319 Speaker 2: We have them forty first nationally, and West Virginia is 936 00:43:57,600 --> 00:44:01,120 Speaker 2: forty third nationally. They're number ten. So what you can 937 00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:04,640 Speaker 2: derive from this is that computer model, even with how 938 00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:07,360 Speaker 2: good Kansas has been so far this year, it would 939 00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:10,680 Speaker 2: still favor nine. Well, I guess eight out of the 940 00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:13,000 Speaker 2: other nine teams in the conference over them. Now, if 941 00:44:13,040 --> 00:44:15,080 Speaker 2: you want a good indicator of how accurate this is, 942 00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:19,800 Speaker 2: Kansas plays Iowa State this week. Kansas is at home 943 00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:23,280 Speaker 2: against Iowa State. Iowa State is a three point favorite. 944 00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:27,319 Speaker 2: So that tells you the Vegas types kind of think 945 00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:30,040 Speaker 2: the same way we do about that. Now here's something 946 00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:34,400 Speaker 2: else you should know. It doesn't matter. Kansas was a 947 00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:38,759 Speaker 2: healthy thirteen point dog against wake Forest or not wake 948 00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:41,480 Speaker 2: Forest against West Virginia a couple weeks ago in Morgantown 949 00:44:41,640 --> 00:44:44,040 Speaker 2: and they just beat them outright, So you know, a 950 00:44:44,120 --> 00:44:46,560 Speaker 2: point spread matters right up until you kick the ball off. 951 00:44:47,320 --> 00:44:50,560 Speaker 2: So that is a jpeople of the Big twelve. 952 00:44:50,600 --> 00:44:52,480 Speaker 1: Right now, Colin, We're gonna do a cough right quick. 953 00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:54,560 Speaker 2: I'm gonna give you a three second countdown so you 954 00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:56,640 Speaker 2: can hit the mute button three two. 955 00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:04,120 Speaker 1: And we're back. Okay. A question about teams under the radar. 956 00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:06,320 Speaker 2: It's probably a pretty good time of year to answer 957 00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:09,879 Speaker 2: this one, and it was Ryan that asked. He said, 958 00:45:09,880 --> 00:45:12,359 Speaker 2: who are the most disrespected teams? I'm not a fan 959 00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:14,279 Speaker 2: of that word in college football, but who are the 960 00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:17,879 Speaker 2: teams flying below the radar so far? And I will 961 00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:21,960 Speaker 2: honor that part of the question by fifteen miles. I'm 962 00:45:21,960 --> 00:45:23,799 Speaker 2: going to break one of my own rules, and it's 963 00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:28,360 Speaker 2: not even close. Mississippi State is the most disrespected team. 964 00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:30,640 Speaker 2: I'll even say that, and they're the most under the 965 00:45:30,719 --> 00:45:33,440 Speaker 2: radar team. I went and pulled up the AP pole today. 966 00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:37,080 Speaker 2: I never look at it, and I wanted to see 967 00:45:37,080 --> 00:45:38,480 Speaker 2: where Mississippi State was ranked. 968 00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:40,480 Speaker 1: That was my first mistake. They're not ranked. 969 00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:43,279 Speaker 2: Then I wanted to go to the bottom where it 970 00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:46,719 Speaker 2: tells you other teams that received votes. Surely they'd be 971 00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:52,680 Speaker 2: in there. They put another thirteen names down there. Mississippi 972 00:45:52,680 --> 00:45:56,200 Speaker 2: State wasn't in there either. So the AP voters have 973 00:45:56,320 --> 00:46:01,920 Speaker 2: Mississippi State ranked at the highest pay ninth and somewhere, 974 00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:05,160 Speaker 2: probably down in the forties. We've got them in the 975 00:46:05,200 --> 00:46:11,439 Speaker 2: top fifteen in our power ratings. You clearly see they've 976 00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:14,600 Speaker 2: already been favored on the road against LSU, even though 977 00:46:14,600 --> 00:46:17,399 Speaker 2: they lost. Favored on the road there, They're favored at 978 00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:21,239 Speaker 2: home this week against an M Again. Point spreads don't 979 00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:23,680 Speaker 2: mean much of anything when the game starts. The reason 980 00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:25,799 Speaker 2: I use that is because I'm trying to tell you 981 00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:29,439 Speaker 2: those are odds makers that Vegas that you guys refer 982 00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:31,920 Speaker 2: to all the time, the guys in the desert, the ones. 983 00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:34,560 Speaker 1: That you respect so much. They're also telling. 984 00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:36,440 Speaker 2: You we think Mississippi State's a really good team. That's 985 00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:40,319 Speaker 2: why we're favoring them in these matchups. So that's the 986 00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:44,040 Speaker 2: first team like it's it is beyond me how they're 987 00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:45,439 Speaker 2: not ranked at. 988 00:46:45,400 --> 00:46:48,719 Speaker 1: Least like top twenty twenty five. But whatever, I mean. 989 00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:53,000 Speaker 2: I've made my thoughts well known on the AP circus. 990 00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:56,319 Speaker 2: So the next team's Kansas. Now, I just told you 991 00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:59,200 Speaker 2: I had em Power rated down near what forty, yeah, 992 00:46:59,239 --> 00:46:59,880 Speaker 2: forty first. 993 00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:03,080 Speaker 1: But we're talking about ranking here. 994 00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:05,160 Speaker 2: If this is where I get to have fun on 995 00:47:05,200 --> 00:47:06,920 Speaker 2: the other side of the fence, because if I were 996 00:47:06,920 --> 00:47:10,920 Speaker 2: an AP voter, I'd have Kansas in the top twenty. 997 00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:15,279 Speaker 2: They're four and zero and they've beaten some teams that 998 00:47:15,600 --> 00:47:18,040 Speaker 2: like West Virginia on the road a couple of weeks ago. 999 00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:21,799 Speaker 2: That's an impressive win. They're just wanting its Duke at home, 1000 00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:24,480 Speaker 2: so they're not just running up on FCS competition. 1001 00:47:24,560 --> 00:47:24,840 Speaker 1: Guys. 1002 00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:29,640 Speaker 2: They've won games at West Virginia, they went to Houston 1003 00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:31,479 Speaker 2: and won, they beat Duke. 1004 00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:32,719 Speaker 1: You tell me. 1005 00:47:32,719 --> 00:47:37,560 Speaker 2: Right now what the criteria is for that AP and 1006 00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:40,440 Speaker 2: allegedly what it is is we're trying to rank teams 1007 00:47:40,480 --> 00:47:44,839 Speaker 2: based on the season so far. If I put a 1008 00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:48,719 Speaker 2: Texas logo up in that box instead of that little 1009 00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:52,920 Speaker 2: jayhawk and we had that resume Texas would be a 1010 00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:55,480 Speaker 2: top ten team. You know it and I know it. 1011 00:47:56,120 --> 00:47:59,440 Speaker 2: So to have Kansas not even ranked with that resume 1012 00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:02,879 Speaker 2: when all I'm allegedly going on if I'm an AP voter, 1013 00:48:03,120 --> 00:48:04,240 Speaker 2: is their resume. 1014 00:48:04,239 --> 00:48:04,719 Speaker 1: Is a joke. 1015 00:48:05,040 --> 00:48:09,440 Speaker 2: It's insane. You know what, Screw it, They're being disrespected. 1016 00:48:09,560 --> 00:48:14,480 Speaker 2: Kansas is being disrespected too. Shameful, shit finger waged with 1017 00:48:14,600 --> 00:48:17,160 Speaker 2: tumbo styles. Shame on every one of you except me. 1018 00:48:17,600 --> 00:48:18,000 Speaker 1: All right. 1019 00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:22,319 Speaker 2: Lastly, I think Florida State's underrated, underranked. Excuse me, They're 1020 00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:25,560 Speaker 2: not underrated, They're always properly rated. They're underranked and are 1021 00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:30,520 Speaker 2: they being disrespected? Maybe by Dave Classing, But I would 1022 00:48:30,560 --> 00:48:33,879 Speaker 2: say that at twenty third in the AP pole, I'm 1023 00:48:33,920 --> 00:48:39,000 Speaker 2: surprised because, unlike Kansas, FSU has a brand that matters. 1024 00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:41,040 Speaker 2: Unless we've got a bunch of twenty year olds voting 1025 00:48:41,040 --> 00:48:42,440 Speaker 2: in the AP all of a sudden. 1026 00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:44,960 Speaker 1: I think that at four and oh, I would expect 1027 00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:47,400 Speaker 1: them to be top fifteen. I think it may be 1028 00:48:47,400 --> 00:48:48,000 Speaker 1: because they. 1029 00:48:47,880 --> 00:48:50,560 Speaker 2: Started off the radar so much, and at the time 1030 00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:54,400 Speaker 2: in Week one, I don't think enough people respected the 1031 00:48:54,480 --> 00:48:57,239 Speaker 2: win and the way they got it against LSU. Well, 1032 00:48:57,360 --> 00:49:01,120 Speaker 2: LSU hasn't lost since then, nor had Florida State. 1033 00:49:01,480 --> 00:49:03,000 Speaker 1: And so I get. 1034 00:49:03,040 --> 00:49:06,640 Speaker 2: I don't get the AP mentality because you're not supposed 1035 00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:11,000 Speaker 2: to bake your preseason thinking into your poll, are you, 1036 00:49:11,160 --> 00:49:13,840 Speaker 2: But yet you do all the time. Now in my world, 1037 00:49:13,840 --> 00:49:16,120 Speaker 2: in the power rating world, we do, but we admit 1038 00:49:16,200 --> 00:49:18,719 Speaker 2: we do. So how in the world is it that 1039 00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:22,640 Speaker 2: I have Florida State power rated higher than the AP 1040 00:49:22,800 --> 00:49:23,640 Speaker 2: has them ranked. 1041 00:49:23,800 --> 00:49:25,520 Speaker 1: I don't only get how that, ever happens. 1042 00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:29,520 Speaker 2: They've beaten LSU, they beat Louisville on the road with 1043 00:49:29,600 --> 00:49:32,239 Speaker 2: a backup quarterback in by the way, and then they 1044 00:49:32,280 --> 00:49:36,479 Speaker 2: just drug Boston College last week. Now finally they play 1045 00:49:36,560 --> 00:49:40,320 Speaker 2: one of your precious ranked teams this week in wake Forest, 1046 00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:43,760 Speaker 2: even though Vegas would tell you they're below LSU. 1047 00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:45,520 Speaker 1: But I digress. 1048 00:49:46,000 --> 00:49:48,240 Speaker 2: Maybe if they get the job done this week, maybe 1049 00:49:48,239 --> 00:49:50,200 Speaker 2: they finally show up a little bit higher than just 1050 00:49:50,200 --> 00:49:52,520 Speaker 2: twenty third. So I would go to Mississippi State, Kansas 1051 00:49:52,560 --> 00:49:58,800 Speaker 2: and Florida State. We had to do something earlier this week. 1052 00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:01,759 Speaker 2: We had to go to t Head in graphics and 1053 00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:05,080 Speaker 2: we had to tell him we need bigger noodles. Our 1054 00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:06,960 Speaker 2: noodles are not big enough. Community. 1055 00:50:07,440 --> 00:50:09,520 Speaker 1: And what we mean by that of course is we 1056 00:50:09,560 --> 00:50:11,080 Speaker 1: give our best bets out on the show. 1057 00:50:11,520 --> 00:50:14,240 Speaker 2: And for a long time we had our little graphic 1058 00:50:14,640 --> 00:50:17,960 Speaker 2: and it just had five blanks on it, and so 1059 00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:20,799 Speaker 2: I would give the five best bets and. 1060 00:50:20,760 --> 00:50:22,480 Speaker 1: Then anything else. I just have to tell you we 1061 00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:23,560 Speaker 1: wouldn't be able to show it. 1062 00:50:23,760 --> 00:50:25,759 Speaker 2: So we go to Ted and Ted said, I got 1063 00:50:25,800 --> 00:50:28,560 Speaker 2: new noodles for you, and he gave us a Rama 1064 00:50:28,560 --> 00:50:32,640 Speaker 2: noodle packet graphic with I think ten blanks on it, and. 1065 00:50:32,560 --> 00:50:35,600 Speaker 1: You know what, we're using them all. So here we go. 1066 00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:38,360 Speaker 2: These are the games we've already been on, so to 1067 00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:43,799 Speaker 2: remind you where we've gone. Iowa plus ten, Mississippi State 1068 00:50:43,920 --> 00:50:47,200 Speaker 2: minus two. Here's why we bet these games early. We 1069 00:50:47,239 --> 00:50:51,000 Speaker 2: bet Mississippi State minus two. It's now minus four. We 1070 00:50:51,040 --> 00:50:54,560 Speaker 2: bet Florida State minus five. It's now Florida State minus seven. 1071 00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:58,040 Speaker 2: We bet Liberty minus two, it's now Liberty minus three 1072 00:50:58,040 --> 00:51:01,000 Speaker 2: and a half. We bet Eastern Michigan minus nineteen and 1073 00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:04,000 Speaker 2: a half. It's now Eastern Michigan minus twenty and a half. 1074 00:51:04,239 --> 00:51:07,000 Speaker 2: Virginia is plus two and a half. I think that 1075 00:51:07,040 --> 00:51:09,000 Speaker 2: when we could have waited on and gotten three, So 1076 00:51:09,080 --> 00:51:10,640 Speaker 2: my bad on that. But we think they're gonna win 1077 00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:13,600 Speaker 2: outright all right. Time for some new bets. We've got 1078 00:51:13,640 --> 00:51:17,239 Speaker 2: four of them that we're gonna add here. We are 1079 00:51:17,280 --> 00:51:21,080 Speaker 2: moving on Kentucky plus seven. That's the game that we're 1080 00:51:21,120 --> 00:51:24,240 Speaker 2: going to be at, and we will be there noon 1081 00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:27,160 Speaker 2: eastern eleven am local kickoff. We just think it's too 1082 00:51:27,160 --> 00:51:30,560 Speaker 2: many points. We've got Ole Miss narrowly winning. I just 1083 00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:32,400 Speaker 2: took Kentucky out right because I don't want to be 1084 00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:34,520 Speaker 2: proven wrong by Mark Stoops again. I think it's gonna 1085 00:51:34,520 --> 00:51:36,560 Speaker 2: be a turnover field game. So I'm gonna take Kentucky 1086 00:51:36,560 --> 00:51:38,560 Speaker 2: in any points I can get. We want seven, not 1087 00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:40,719 Speaker 2: six and a half. Give me Kentucky plus seven there, 1088 00:51:40,840 --> 00:51:45,000 Speaker 2: that's widely available right now. NC State, We're gonna take 1089 00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:47,720 Speaker 2: them and all seven points they're given us. That number 1090 00:51:47,760 --> 00:51:51,200 Speaker 2: also widely available. I'm not done moving on that game. 1091 00:51:52,600 --> 00:51:57,440 Speaker 2: I'm comfortable enough with the win profiles on the advanced 1092 00:51:57,680 --> 00:52:01,680 Speaker 2: models that I like the over here. It's come up 1093 00:52:01,680 --> 00:52:04,080 Speaker 2: from forty, but I told you, if if we get 1094 00:52:04,080 --> 00:52:07,120 Speaker 2: the weather that we want, that total is way too low, 1095 00:52:07,239 --> 00:52:09,080 Speaker 2: and it still hasn't come up enough to where it 1096 00:52:09,120 --> 00:52:11,680 Speaker 2: should come up. So over forty three and a half 1097 00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:14,800 Speaker 2: in Clemson, NC, State. We're taking over forty three and 1098 00:52:14,800 --> 00:52:16,400 Speaker 2: a half. We're taking NC State plus seven. 1099 00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:17,399 Speaker 1: And here's a. 1100 00:52:17,320 --> 00:52:20,799 Speaker 2: Little Friday Night special for you. When's the last time 1101 00:52:20,840 --> 00:52:23,560 Speaker 2: you watched Middle Tennessee State play a game? Probably last 1102 00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:26,920 Speaker 2: week they went and they beat Miami. They come home 1103 00:52:27,000 --> 00:52:30,720 Speaker 2: this week and they are a four point dog against 1104 00:52:30,840 --> 00:52:35,600 Speaker 2: UTSA two and two. UTSA and Rick stockstill is running 1105 00:52:35,600 --> 00:52:38,160 Speaker 2: around Nashville, still talking about that Miami game last week. 1106 00:52:38,200 --> 00:52:39,680 Speaker 1: God bless them, they got a big whim. 1107 00:52:41,239 --> 00:52:44,480 Speaker 2: I don't like them in the letdown mode on short 1108 00:52:44,520 --> 00:52:47,759 Speaker 2: rest at all. So we're gonna take UTSA and we're 1109 00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:49,839 Speaker 2: gonna get to use that little beet road runner logo 1110 00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:53,200 Speaker 2: there UTSA minus four. Now, there are a lot of 1111 00:52:53,200 --> 00:52:55,200 Speaker 2: graphics on the board right now, so I'm not gonna 1112 00:52:55,239 --> 00:52:56,480 Speaker 2: read all of them off to you again. I'm just 1113 00:52:56,520 --> 00:53:00,200 Speaker 2: gonna tell you we're taking UTSA minus four in ES 1114 00:53:00,239 --> 00:53:02,640 Speaker 2: State plus seven and the over at forty three and 1115 00:53:02,640 --> 00:53:06,720 Speaker 2: a half. We're taking Kentucky plus seven as well. Believe 1116 00:53:06,760 --> 00:53:09,520 Speaker 2: it or not, Even though that's ten games we've already 1117 00:53:09,520 --> 00:53:09,880 Speaker 2: moved on. 1118 00:53:10,040 --> 00:53:10,560 Speaker 1: We are not. 1119 00:53:10,920 --> 00:53:15,120 Speaker 2: Done at late kick Josh, make sure you're following on Instagram. 1120 00:53:15,400 --> 00:53:18,960 Speaker 2: Does Friday Night lines by from Oxford, Mississippi, tomorrow night, 1121 00:53:19,719 --> 00:53:22,640 Speaker 2: pending Wi Fi access, which I know will have. We 1122 00:53:22,680 --> 00:53:24,680 Speaker 2: are going to add more games. Got another total I'm 1123 00:53:24,719 --> 00:53:26,960 Speaker 2: looking at that we're waiting on. I got two more 1124 00:53:26,960 --> 00:53:29,920 Speaker 2: lines that we're waiting on. Favorable moves on. They'll make 1125 00:53:29,920 --> 00:53:30,640 Speaker 2: sure you check it out. 1126 00:53:30,719 --> 00:53:32,840 Speaker 1: Okay, we're out of here. Thank you so much for 1127 00:53:32,960 --> 00:53:35,319 Speaker 1: taking time to watch tonight. Make sure you like the video. 1128 00:53:35,640 --> 00:53:37,520 Speaker 2: Make sure you subscribe to the channel. Make sure you 1129 00:53:37,520 --> 00:53:41,440 Speaker 2: subscribe to the podcast. Our producer Jesse, director Colin. I'm 1130 00:53:41,520 --> 00:53:44,360 Speaker 2: Josh Bate. We'll see you in Oxford, Mississippi this weekend. 1131 00:53:44,560 --> 00:53:46,520 Speaker 2: Until then, take care. We'll see a Sunday Night and 1132 00:53:46,640 --> 00:53:46,960 Speaker 2: bed BLUs