Speaker 1: The volume. All right, Chad Milman's about to stop by.
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Speaker 1: game Time Today. What time is it? Game Time Immediate reaction.
Speaker 1: If you wonder why the NFL is king on television
Speaker 1: twenty seven to twenty tonight was a great example decided
Speaker 1: by that much a toe decides the game. Listen. Baltimore
Speaker 1: was outplayed for big chunks of this thing and almost
Speaker 1: almost tied it. They almost certainly would have gone for
Speaker 1: two in the win. And that's why Baltimore is so dangerous.
Speaker 1: You know. Lamar Jackson did not throw the ball down
Speaker 1: the field effectively, nor has he ever as well as
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, although Mahomes did not throw the ball down
Speaker 1: the field much last year because it was one of
Speaker 1: the worst receiving cores in the league. With Worthy, now
Speaker 1: that's a deep threat. They've added some dimensions and over
Speaker 1: the top receiver Juju Smith Schuster will become more productive
Speaker 1: over time. He just got reacquired, so Watson Rice now
Speaker 1: where she Rice looks like a number one. Worthy's going
Speaker 1: to be a gadget guy early. I don't think he's
Speaker 1: a heavy volume guy, a nine to ten catch guy,
Speaker 1: but he adds an element they didn't have. He's an
Speaker 1: over the top playmaker. But it's interesting watching ball the
Speaker 1: more they had a lot of offensive penalties, especially early
Speaker 1: in the game. They don't throw the ball down the
Speaker 1: field enough. And then you get that final drive by
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson, where I mean, honestly, he reminds me of
Speaker 1: like a great high school player where he's just so
Speaker 1: much better than everybody else on the field. He's like
Speaker 1: a high school football game and there's one D one
Speaker 1: prospect and it's the quarterback and he's just running around
Speaker 1: making all these plays. Happen. Lamar Jackson makes other great
Speaker 1: pro football players look slow and unathletic, and that's why
Speaker 1: I'll always defend him. He's not Mahomes and Peyton Manning
Speaker 1: probably wasn't Brady, you know, and Mickelson wasn't Tiger Woods,
Speaker 1: and Barkley was an MJ. Lamar Jackson is so productive.
Speaker 1: He cares so much. Now, I thought, my one real
Speaker 1: negative with Lamar Jackson you can't get hit that many times.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, you can't last seventeen games in the regular season,
Speaker 1: two or three playoff games played like that. Lamar's lost weight,
Speaker 1: he's thinner, and he took a beating to Now I
Speaker 1: think this game means so much Lamar. He's not gonna slide,
Speaker 1: He's not gonna run out of bounds against Kansas City.
Speaker 1: So I don't think Lamar is going to play like this.
Speaker 1: This this sort of physical football game on average. But
Speaker 1: he took a beating tonight, and that Kansas City defense
Speaker 1: is fast and physical that you have to reduce. You
Speaker 1: can't play like that. But I will defend Lamar to
Speaker 1: the very end. He is such a remarkable player, you know.
Speaker 1: He just he doesn't throw the ball down the field consistently.
Speaker 1: But he finally has a really nice group of receivers.
Speaker 1: Isaiah likely is terrific. That's the football game and the
Speaker 1: fact that that guy went down in the back of
Speaker 1: the end zone. I thought he broke his ribs. I mean,
Speaker 1: he just slammed down on the corner where it's not
Speaker 1: you know, it's not padded very well, gets up and
Speaker 1: he's making plays. What a gamer.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 1: I look at my notes over the course of the game.
Speaker 1: I think here's the really good news for Kansas City.
Speaker 1: Last year. It's often discussed right ad nauseum that receiving
Speaker 1: corse bad Rashi Rice was young. He felt like maybe
Speaker 1: a two. He felt like a one tonight. You know, now,
Speaker 1: is he a great one? Is he a top five
Speaker 1: to one? Is he see the lamb? Is he Devonte Adams? No,
Speaker 1: but he felt like a real go to, high volume,
Speaker 1: thirteen targets nine catch guy for them they have now, Noah, great,
Speaker 1: they've got a second tight end. Watson's around, Juju Smith,
Speaker 1: Schuster and again Xavi are worthy. You know, I joked
Speaker 1: when they drafted him, I'm like, he's a track guy.
Speaker 1: He's one hundred and sixty five pounds. You know, I
Speaker 1: don't think that he's going to lead them to the
Speaker 1: super Bowl, but he adds a dimension to an offense
Speaker 1: that since Tyreek Hill left, they don't have a downfield threat.
Speaker 1: So you know, for the longest time of the game,
Speaker 1: he just had that one, you know, reverse touchdown, but
Speaker 1: blown coverage later he gets a second touchdown and you
Speaker 1: have to account for him. You know, that's the bottom line.
Speaker 1: Last year, you didn't have to account for anybody. Nobody
Speaker 1: scared you down the field. Well, now they have a
Speaker 1: one in Rashie Rice. They have a downfield threat. They
Speaker 1: have multiple Watson, Noah Gray, Travis Kelcey. They've solved their
Speaker 1: weapons issue. For the record, how the hell did Isaiah Pichecko?
Speaker 1: What did he drop to the seventh round? How did
Speaker 1: they get him in the seventh round? That guy's insane.
Speaker 1: It's just it's amazing to me. You get to the
Speaker 1: fourteenth player in the NBA Draft, you're out of players.
Speaker 1: Rock Purty's the last gun I taken, and Isaiah Pichecko.
Speaker 1: I think he was a seventh round guy. God, how
Speaker 1: did all these gms watch film and just keep passing
Speaker 1: on him? He's impossible to bring down run so hard
Speaker 1: he can catch it out of the backfield. What a
Speaker 1: weapon he is. So Kansas City's weapons shortage, They're going
Speaker 1: to be fine there. And this is you're just looking
Speaker 1: at two great organizations. I love watching these two play.
Speaker 1: And there's a reason Kansas City keeps winning. Andy Reid,
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. You know, they led twenty to ten at
Speaker 1: one point. I kind of felt first half, I thought
Speaker 1: Baltimore was just kind of trying to find its footing.
Speaker 1: They weren't throwing the ball down the field. Second half,
Speaker 1: Kansas City, in that screen game, pulls away. I thought,
Speaker 1: you know, if you watch that game, you could say
Speaker 1: Kansas City controlled big chunks of it. And here comes
Speaker 1: Lamar just putting the team on his back, taking too
Speaker 1: many shots, running down the field, making big plays. The
Speaker 1: guy's just an al timer, just an absolute al teimer.
Speaker 1: But you know, sports is like this. You know, if
Speaker 1: you take Tiger Woods out, think how many tour events
Speaker 1: Mickelson wins. I mean, Philip, he had to have over
Speaker 1: like forty five tour wins. Didn't he take out one guy?
Speaker 1: Take out Barkley, and it changes take out MJ. It
Speaker 1: changes Barkley's career with titles take out John Elway's career,
Speaker 1: Joe Montana Brady. There's so many great athletes who we
Speaker 1: spend so much time criticizing because they can't beat the ledge.
Speaker 1: And I talked about that on FS one today. God
Speaker 1: Lamar is just so unique and so gifted, but he
Speaker 1: took a beating tonight, and you just can't play that way.
Speaker 1: A day with Baltimore and Kansas City each to night,
Speaker 1: all the weapons, all the talented players on the perimeter
Speaker 1: and running backs, I kept thinking, does Buffalo match up
Speaker 1: with these guys now that Stefan Diggs is out? Like
Speaker 1: I'm watching all these weapons for Kansas City and Baltimore,
Speaker 1: including their quarterbacks. You know who matches up in the
Speaker 1: AFC Houston. Houston's got these kind of weapons, adding Joe
Speaker 1: Mixonstefon Diggs, Tank Dell Nicocollins, c J.
Speaker 2: Stroud.
Speaker 1: Like I'm both these teams tonight. I mean it's tight ends,
Speaker 1: it's wide receivers, it's slot guys, it's running backs, it's
Speaker 1: all time quarterbacks. You know Buffalo is I like cook
Speaker 1: a couple good tight ends, a rookie receiver. You know,
Speaker 1: Buffalo maybe what Kansas City was last year, and they
Speaker 1: may be weapons short. And that's why a lot of people,
Speaker 1: myself included, kind of like Houston. I mean, at some
Speaker 1: point last year may have been the year to beat
Speaker 1: Kansas City. That may have been the year. You know,
Speaker 1: they weren't going to have home field, They couldn't beat
Speaker 1: you in a track meet. They had the gate, keep
Speaker 1: the games pretty close and low scoring. Now this team's
Speaker 1: back to I mean again, this is Worthy's first game.
Speaker 1: What's xavierer Worthy going to do when week eight through
Speaker 1: thirteen we ten through seventeen. So last year may have
Speaker 1: been the year to get Kansas City. What a night.
Speaker 1: I chewed two pieces of my neuro gum to stay
Speaker 1: up tonight. I'm not messing around now. I may be
Speaker 1: staring at the ceiling at one in the morning. That
Speaker 1: was a beauty. Sometimes I feel so lucky to do
Speaker 1: what I do for a living. I'm sitting there tonight,
Speaker 1: I ordered door Dash, eating some Mexican food, and I'm
Speaker 1: sitting there watching that and I'm like, I mean, this
Speaker 1: is how good is this? Arrowhead Holmes read Harball Lamar Jackson,
Speaker 1: and I'll just say it again. Baltimore didn't play particularly
Speaker 1: well and it was this close, so you can sell
Speaker 1: all your Ravens stock. I'm buying it. I didn't think
Speaker 1: they played that well. I didn't think Lamar played that well.
Speaker 1: And he's driving him down against that incredible defense, you know,
Speaker 1: because of Reid and Mahomes, that Kansas City defense. It'll
Speaker 1: just never get the love. It is so fast, so twitchy,
Speaker 1: consistent pass rush, Chris Jones, edge rush, linebackers that move well.
Speaker 1: That's it where Baltimore probably goes for two and has
Speaker 1: a chance to win. When you don't play particularly well
Speaker 1: on the road and narrowhead and almost beat the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: I'd be worried these two will meet again. That's what
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Speaker 1: All Right, it's time for another season of Sharp or Square.
Speaker 1: After quite a sabbatical, I am now working again on
Speaker 1: almost a full time basis. Chad Milman, C COO of
Speaker 1: the Action Network. The favorites, by the way, I have
Speaker 1: one thousand dollars pick them contests free to play. We'll
Speaker 1: get to that later.
Speaker 2: All the one hundred thousand, one hundred thousand, man, we're
Speaker 2: giving away one hundred thousand dollars. Wow, thousand, one hundred
Speaker 2: thous We don't do one thousand on the Volume podcast network.
Speaker 2: We're big time.
Speaker 1: All of our odds provided by DraftKings. I spent a
Speaker 1: lot of time this summer in uh, you know, in
Speaker 1: a place out east, very close to where you live.
Speaker 1: I played a lot of golf and during that time
Speaker 1: a lot of time to think about odds, and I
Speaker 1: almost did not do a first week of this. And
Speaker 1: my take has been the world's changed. All these sharps
Speaker 1: pick at these line one odds. They have all summer
Speaker 1: to pick at these puppies. Once they're available. This is
Speaker 1: a terrible week to bet. And then I look at
Speaker 1: the numbers this week and I'm like, they may not
Speaker 1: be the best, but I got a couple I like,
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna start with one of them that I'm
Speaker 1: being warned about. Arizona plus six and a half at Buffalo.
Speaker 1: I thought the Cardinals were a tough out at the
Speaker 1: end of last year. I think the last couple of
Speaker 1: drafts they've hit on some playmakers. I like Kyler Murray.
Speaker 1: I think he's hard to duplicate preparing for He's like
Speaker 1: nobody else in the league. He's like to me, he's
Speaker 1: a better version of Russell Wilson in his prime, and
Speaker 1: Russell was pretty good. I think Arizona plus six and
Speaker 1: a half is not only the play I think they
Speaker 1: could win Sharper square.
Speaker 2: Ish like of all the games they just I'm with you, brother, Like,
Speaker 2: I actually think there's a lot of opportunity in Week one.
Speaker 2: Arizona is a team. I'm not gonna lie to you.
Speaker 2: Wise guys love they think that in the NFC West.
Speaker 2: They love Seattle, they love Mike McDonald as a coach.
Speaker 2: They are really bullish on Arizona. This number actually clicked
Speaker 2: down got down to six. It was much higher even
Speaker 2: during the offseason. It's ticked a little bit back up.
Speaker 2: I think there was some over exuberance on the Cardinals.
Speaker 2: And don't forget, this is the kind of game that
Speaker 2: the Bills historically not just cover but dominate, right, And
Speaker 2: so there are so many unknowns in this game. Professional betters.
Speaker 2: They are going to lean towards underdogs in Week one,
Speaker 2: and that's going to be a theme for everything we're
Speaker 2: talking about. And I've got a lot of numbers to
Speaker 2: back it up for folks, but this one is trickier.
Speaker 2: I think it's six and a half. Yes, if it
Speaker 2: goes back down to six, probably, No, don't forget. Six
Speaker 2: has become a lot more of a key number with
Speaker 2: extra point sort of inaccuracy and inconsistency. So I can't
Speaker 2: give you a definitive. I can say if I got
Speaker 2: to play aside, I'm playing Arizona, but I don't. I
Speaker 2: don't think it's blazon by any means.
Speaker 1: Okay, that wasn't my best pick. I'm just throwing shit out.
Speaker 2: Good good, let's warm up. Let's just warm up.
Speaker 1: The one I really like is Carolina plus three and
Speaker 1: a half of the Saints. I think New Orleans is
Speaker 1: poorly quarterbacked and poorly coached. I think they'll be the
Speaker 1: first team to jettison their head coach. I think Carolina
Speaker 1: massive coach upgrade. If you look at the wide receiver
Speaker 1: nit last year worse than the league next to New England,
Speaker 1: They've actually upgraded, so starters are now backups and it's like, oh,
Speaker 1: mingo can be a three or four, not a one
Speaker 1: or a two. I look at Carolina, I'd go money line.
Speaker 1: I think they win this game straight out.
Speaker 2: Sharper square, dude, you are insu knife sharp right now.
Speaker 2: That is you have gone from kind of med mid
Speaker 2: as the kids like to say, to full on super sharp.
Speaker 2: Caroline has been a team that at the Action Network
Speaker 2: we have been hammering all off season. We have been
Speaker 2: hammering their season win total over that jumped up from
Speaker 2: four and a half to five and a half. We've
Speaker 2: been hammering their odds to win the division. Everything about
Speaker 2: this team last year, and you and I talked a
Speaker 2: lot about this in previous seasons. We do this thing
Speaker 2: called luck rankings. It's basically takes all of the randomness
Speaker 2: of football and puts it into a formula and then
Speaker 2: applies it throughout the season. Last year, the Panthers were
Speaker 2: one of the most unlucky teams in the NFL that
Speaker 2: is always bound to regress. In sort of very analytic terms,
Speaker 2: they won about a game and a half less than
Speaker 2: they should have based on the stats and the randomness
Speaker 2: of games. So now, all of a sudden, they've improved
Speaker 2: their offensive line, right, They've got a couple of new guards,
Speaker 2: They've improved at receiver, They've improved their coaching. Let's be
Speaker 2: very clear, Dave Canalis the new head coach, he was
Speaker 2: the head coach. He was the coordinator in Seattle when
Speaker 2: Gino Smith went from journeyman to pro bowler. He was
Speaker 2: the coordinator for Tampa Bay when Baker Mayfield went from
Speaker 2: journeyman to leading the team to the playoffs. Now, all
Speaker 2: of a sudden, he's got Bryce Young, who there's a
Speaker 2: lot of negativity about. That's why this line is so inflated.
Speaker 2: This line was at four and a half. It's gone
Speaker 2: down to four because wise guys are betting it. And
Speaker 2: you cited about the Saints. There was a survey before
Speaker 2: the seat, before we got the preseason, which fan base
Speaker 2: had the least optimist them about their team. It was
Speaker 2: the New Orleans Saints who has the shortest odds to
Speaker 2: be fired first Dennis Allen, who is hearing footsteps from
Speaker 2: Spencer Rattler right now Derek Carr. Dennis Allen and Derek Carr,
Speaker 2: in their respective positions as head coach and quarterback, are
Speaker 2: two of the worst against the spread of any grouping
Speaker 2: for the past twenty years. They are terrible as favorites,
Speaker 2: also just generally bad. Dennis Allen is historically bad as
Speaker 2: a head coach with the minimum seventy games, which is
Speaker 2: what he has. So you are spot on one stat
Speaker 2: for you NFL Division underdogs in Week one since twenty fourteen.
Speaker 2: So the Panthers as underdogs to the Saints seventy one
Speaker 2: percent against the spread, not only that they cover the
Speaker 2: spread by an average five points per game, which largely
Speaker 2: says I agree with you. You could take a little bit
Speaker 2: of a taste and I never mind this like a
Speaker 2: quarter unit on the underdog to win outright, all.
Speaker 1: Right, concern could be a monsoon. But Commander's plus three
Speaker 1: and a half at the Bucks. I think Tampa has
Speaker 1: to guess what Washington's doing. They have to go watch
Speaker 1: Arizona footage, LSU footage. Washington knows exactly what they are.
Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury banged the table for Jaden Daniels. Dan Quinn
Speaker 1: was a very good coach when he had the right coordinator.
Speaker 1: I think this coordinator. I talked to a GM that
Speaker 1: hired him, Steve Kayin. He said, Cliff is great. He said,
Speaker 1: I don't know if he's an NFL head coach, the
Speaker 1: discipline is an issue, but as an NFL coordinator or
Speaker 1: a college coach, he said, I would back him forever.
Speaker 1: This is a great role for Kingsbury. I think Washington's
Speaker 1: personnel's fine. Tampa's guessing. I think they pull back as
Speaker 1: a team this year. Tampa. I'm gonna take Commanders plus
Speaker 1: three and a half Sharper square.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's sharp. I mean it's not the favorite. Like
Speaker 2: if I had eight bets I had to make this weekend.
Speaker 2: This is probably seventh or eighth, right, I will be
Speaker 2: playing the Commanders. But this team right now. I just
Speaker 2: talked about the luck rankings the Buccaneers, and you noted
Speaker 2: there's going to be some regression. The Buccaneers were amongst
Speaker 2: the luckiest teams in the NFL last year and the
Speaker 2: Commanders were one of the ten most unlucky. So just
Speaker 2: the gap between these two teams is reflected, I think
Speaker 2: in a higher than it should be points spread because
Speaker 2: of perception. Right the Commanders number two, number three overall.
Speaker 2: Pick the Buccaneers. They made the playoffs, they had a
Speaker 2: good run. They have lost important aspects of that team,
Speaker 2: specifically Dave Canalis Baker fourteen and twenty six in his
Speaker 2: career as a favorite. Everything about this game says take
Speaker 2: the Commanders, So the wise guys are with you.
Speaker 1: An interesting game. I don't like big favorites in the
Speaker 1: opening week, and I think bo Nix and Sean Payton
Speaker 1: are going to be excellent together compared to what the
Speaker 1: market predicts. I think there were a seven win team,
Speaker 1: not a four win team. Do not like him rookies
Speaker 1: starting Week one on the road against a very sharp
Speaker 1: maybe the next Demko Ryan's defensive coach Seattle. I like
Speaker 1: Pete Carroll last two years they underwhelmed. They have better talent.
Speaker 1: I mean offensively, it's Noah's Ark. Two receivers, two tight ends,
Speaker 1: two running backs, two tackles. I like everything. I think
Speaker 1: Seattle minus six is to play. This is a rough spot,
Speaker 1: and I like bo Nicks. This is a rough opening week.
Speaker 1: I take Seattle minus six.
Speaker 2: Yeah, look, that's the exact right spot. Historically, rookie quarterbacks
Speaker 2: on the road are just terrible. Rookie first round picks
Speaker 2: on the road average eighteen points per game the past
Speaker 2: ten years. It is not a good spot. There is
Speaker 2: a lot of professional better love for Mike McDonald. They
Speaker 2: loved the game plans he put together when he was
Speaker 2: the defensive coordinator in Baltimore. They are expecting a much
Speaker 2: better defense in Seattle. I think that's what you're seeing
Speaker 2: here is just a little bit of a difference in
Speaker 2: talent on the roster historically. Wise guys, they don't like
Speaker 2: to bet against Sean Payton that they like. Sean Payton
Speaker 2: is their favorite coach right along with Mike Tomlin. But
Speaker 2: Mike McDonald's in the spot like they look at him
Speaker 2: not as a rookie head coach in a lot of ways,
Speaker 2: the way that people looked at Tamiko Ryes last year.
Speaker 2: They got a lot of faith in what he can do.
Speaker 2: So Whise guys, you're with you.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Jets plus four and a half against
Speaker 1: the Niners. It's a noisy game the Baggage Bowl, but
Speaker 1: Trent Williams can't be in great shape. I do worry
Speaker 1: about Hassan Reddick not in camp because they lost Huff
Speaker 1: to the Eagles, but I don't worry too much about
Speaker 1: pass rush. I don't like the Niners offensive line, especially
Speaker 1: when Trent just gets back into camp. That feels like
Speaker 1: it's just too rich. I don't know if they win,
Speaker 1: but god, I don't get the line at all. I
Speaker 1: would take the Jets plus four and a half, sharp, square.
Speaker 2: Totally sharp. It's what's really interesting about this, Colin is
Speaker 2: since Trent Williams signed, the line has moved a full
Speaker 2: point from three and a half to four and a half.
Speaker 2: That's how much bookmakers and then the public betters believe
Speaker 2: Trent Williams was worth. They have steamed this line up,
Speaker 2: and wise guys are happy to take to four and
Speaker 2: a half. You mentioned the offensive line for to the
Speaker 2: forty nine ers. That's the weakness of their team, right
Speaker 2: And even with Trump Williams, who is probably the best
Speaker 2: left tackle in the NFL, they are able to mask
Speaker 2: that weakness because Kyle Shanahan's scheme is so good in
Speaker 2: the way he can move the ball around that they're
Speaker 2: able to get away with having an offensive line that
Speaker 2: is a little bit mediocre. The Jets have one of
Speaker 2: the best defensive lines in the NFL, and I agree
Speaker 2: with you about Hassan Raddick. The guy hasn't played for
Speaker 2: the Jets at all, so they don't really know what
Speaker 2: they're missing. And obviously Bryce hoff being gone is an impact,
Speaker 2: but they have a doubt defensive line. They will find
Speaker 2: a way to get to the quarterback against this offensive line.
Speaker 2: The wise guys love love the Jets in this spot.
Speaker 1: All right, another game. I never trust the Browns, ever,
Speaker 1: I love their coach, and I have real questions about
Speaker 1: the depth of Dallas's offensive talent. I worry about blocking
Speaker 1: Miles Garrett, But god, I know what I get from
Speaker 1: Dak and Mike McCarthy. I don't know what the hell
Speaker 1: I get with Deshaun Watson. I get Dallas plus two
Speaker 1: and a half. I'm gonna take them. I'm gonna take
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Cowboys. Sharper square.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's sharp, but not a lot of conviction. Like
Speaker 2: it's not you know, I just said, there's probably eight best.
Speaker 1: My voice told you I didn't have a lot of conviction.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you don't have a lot of conviction. I'm actually
Speaker 2: surprised you chose it. I don't know if you feel
Speaker 2: like you got to talk about the Cowboys is like
Speaker 2: the lowest common denominator as a member of the meeting.
Speaker 2: But it's not a game that I'm excited about, like
Speaker 2: as a better for all the reasons you just said.
Speaker 2: I think the Cowboys are are the Houston Rockets circa
Speaker 2: twenty twelve of the NFL, right, a lot of talent.
Speaker 2: They're great in the regular season, fall apart when it matters.
Speaker 2: I'm not a buyer on McCarthy. I just don't think
Speaker 2: he's a very good coach. I think what you said
Speaker 2: about the lack of depth on offense is a real issue,
Speaker 2: and that's continued to be an issue for the past
Speaker 2: couple of years. Listen the Browns defense last year at
Speaker 2: home historic Miles Garrett. We just talked about Trent Williams
Speaker 2: being a line changer when it comes to moving the
Speaker 2: point spread. Miles Garrett is like that. Miles Garrett is
Speaker 2: the kind of defensive force from a betting perspective and
Speaker 2: from a line making perspective that JJ Watt was about
Speaker 2: twelve years ago. Book makers have to account for his
Speaker 2: presence with a point half a point in terms of
Speaker 2: the spread. But we don't know anything about Deshaun Watson.
Speaker 2: And also, I will tell you one other thing that
Speaker 2: I think is sticking out in people's minds. From a
Speaker 2: professional betting point of view. Bill Callahan is an offensive
Speaker 2: line coach genius, and he is one of the reasons
Speaker 2: why that Brown's team. They could lose Nick Chubb, they
Speaker 2: could lose any running back, get someone back in there,
Speaker 2: and anybody who's going to make that team produce. I
Speaker 2: love Kevin Stefanski too. He left. He went to the
Speaker 2: Titans to work with his son, who's now the head
Speaker 2: coach at the Titans. So I do think the wise
Speaker 2: guys are on the Cowboys, but no one's banging the drum,
Speaker 2: being like rushing the counter. I gotta get on the
Speaker 2: Cowboys right now.
Speaker 1: Okay, this one's painful for me to make because.
Speaker 2: I am really beast kind.
Speaker 1: I know, I really want to see the Bears flourish,
Speaker 1: and I think they will. But God, if the line
Speaker 1: goes to plus four for the Titans, rookie quarterback Titans
Speaker 1: plus the points you're shaking your head Sharper square.
Speaker 2: It's totally sharp. And look, it pains me as Chicago
Speaker 2: in as someone who loves this team so much and
Speaker 2: was weepy eyed watching all of the hard knocks stuff,
Speaker 2: seeing the team walk in and out of Hollis Hall,
Speaker 2: practicing in Lake Forest, the introductions, making it feel like
Speaker 2: this is the premier franchise in the NFL because of
Speaker 2: its history, even though we've only won one Super Bowl. Dude,
Speaker 2: this hype is just too much. I mean, it's still
Speaker 2: a team that has not breached five hundred and god
Speaker 2: knows how long. It's still a team with a rookie quarterback.
Speaker 2: It's now a team where if you want to bet
Speaker 2: on the Bear season win total, you got to bet
Speaker 2: that they're going to be over five hundred. A rookie
Speaker 2: quarterback in a division that has the Packers, who a
Speaker 2: lot of people think could go to the super Bowl,
Speaker 2: the Lions, who a lot of people think should be
Speaker 2: the number one seed in the NFC this year. Like,
Speaker 2: this is a lot And I know Caleb Williams says
Speaker 2: I don't get nervous before games, he should get nervous
Speaker 2: because this Tennessee team has improved at every single place
Speaker 2: they need to improve. They've gotten much better in the
Speaker 2: defensive backfield with Lugerious Snead. They've gotten better at receiver.
Speaker 2: They have improved their offensive line, not just in scheme
Speaker 2: and talent, but with coaching. I worry about the Bears
Speaker 2: in this spot, way way too much hype and enthusiasm.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: We always end with a game that I missed, but
Speaker 1: also a game that I don't have the courage to bet,
Speaker 1: but I just want your opinion. Sam Darnold minus points
Speaker 1: on the road scares me, but god, the Giants are bad.
Speaker 1: Minnesota minus two. I think I'd swallow the two with Minnesota.
Speaker 1: Talk me in or out of that game.
Speaker 2: No, you don't want to swallow the two of Minnesota.
Speaker 2: You want to take the Giants and look, this one
Speaker 2: is divided. I'm not going to lie to you. Simon
Speaker 2: Hunter and I do the Favorites podcast on the Volume
Speaker 2: Podcast Networks. We will always do a segment called Sharp
Speaker 2: Calls where professional betters who listen to our show on
Speaker 2: Tuesday will call us on Wednesday and tell us everything
Speaker 2: they agree with, then everything they disagree with. It is
Speaker 2: the greatest peanut gallery in the world. When we did
Speaker 2: our Thursday show and we did the sharp Call segment,
Speaker 2: this was the biggest division was half the group was
Speaker 2: on the Vikings. Half the group is on the Giants.
Speaker 2: I feel like Simon and I are in a bit
Speaker 2: of a foxhole with this game. I like the Giants.
Speaker 2: I actually have bet the Vikings fifteen to one for
Speaker 2: the worst record in the NFL this year. Their schedule
Speaker 2: after they play the Giant Goal Niners, Texans, Packers, Jets,
Speaker 2: this team, if they don't win against the Giants, they
Speaker 2: could be winless when we get to the end of October.
Speaker 2: So I like the Giants. Here. There's some really important
Speaker 2: trends that we actually haven't gotten to yet that I
Speaker 2: think are really important. Underdogs between one and five and
Speaker 2: a half points in Week one since twenty eighteen covered
Speaker 2: a sixty four percent clip. It's a pretty big sample
Speaker 2: size for more than one hundred and fifty games, so
Speaker 2: and favorites of one to three and a half points
Speaker 2: cover only forty three percent at the time in September,
Speaker 2: So we've got pretty good trends when we talk about
Speaker 2: bettings weeks one, especially as you were discussing when we
Speaker 2: open the segment that show you why you can take
Speaker 2: advantage and why you want to bet underdogs. This is
Speaker 2: also a really interesting coach matchup to me right two
Speaker 2: years ago. These guys are the Bell of the Ball
Speaker 2: and day Ball wins Coach of the Year. Both of
Speaker 2: these teams are winning games that are less than one
Speaker 2: score games and they're winning them consistently. They play each
Speaker 2: other in the playoffs, day Ball and Daniel Jones going
Speaker 2: to Minnesota. They beat Kirk Cousins and Kevin O'Donnell, Kevin O'Connell,
Speaker 2: and so there's a lot of sentiment that Brian Dayball
Speaker 2: is a really good coach, and then last year everything
Speaker 2: falls apart for both of them. So I do think
Speaker 2: there's a little bit too much hate on the Giants
Speaker 2: right now and a little bit too much credit on
Speaker 2: the Vikings. Sam Darnold should not be a road favorite ever,
Speaker 2: He shouldn't be a road favorite in any scenario. He
Speaker 2: just shouldn't. So you got to take the Giants.
Speaker 1: Okay, finally a game I missed. I am betting you
Speaker 1: it's Colts plus the points. I know it's the Colt plus.
Speaker 1: The point is it of.
Speaker 2: Course it is. I knew, Yeah, it's one hundred percent
Speaker 2: the Colts plus I think you can get them plus
Speaker 2: three some places plus three and a half. Now this
Speaker 2: line was two and a half forty eight hours ago.
Speaker 2: The public is steaming in on the Texans and the
Speaker 2: wise guys are buying on the Colts, and look, it's
Speaker 2: a little tricky. Anthony Richardson has basically played like seventeen
Speaker 2: games a quarterback I know, since high school. I know, right,
Speaker 2: And then you got the Texans who look like they
Speaker 2: are all world. But I do want to give some
Speaker 2: context here. The Texans do not win the AFC South
Speaker 2: if Trevor Lawrence doesn't get injured. The Colts almost made
Speaker 2: the playoffs with Gardner Minshew playing the majority of the
Speaker 2: games last season. I think Shane steiken is a genius
Speaker 2: as a coach, and what he did with Minshew and
Speaker 2: what he was starting to do with Anthony Richardson is brilliant.
Speaker 2: And I think the level of play that the Eagles
Speaker 2: had last year on offense and what you saw from
Speaker 2: the Colts is a direct correlation between Shane Steikeen being
Speaker 2: an Indie and not being with Philly anymore. I think
Speaker 2: there's a huge advantage there also to repeat division underdogs
Speaker 2: thirty seven to fifteen and one against spread in week
Speaker 2: one since twenty fourteen. That's seventy one percent. This is
Speaker 2: a really good spot for the Colts against a overvalued
Speaker 2: Texans team.
Speaker 1: I want you to just give my audience something here,
Speaker 1: just entertain me and make my audience smarter. So I
Speaker 1: think the Rams the last two years, last year and
Speaker 1: this year are undervalued. But their old line is a
Speaker 1: bit of a musical chair situation. Sean McVeagh and Stafford
Speaker 1: getting three and a half against an average defense feels
Speaker 1: like stealing money. But I'm really reticent in this spot.
Speaker 1: I don't like their old line Hutchison had according to
Speaker 1: you know, all the Lion news. They're like, he's now
Speaker 1: the best defensive rush end of the league. He's just
Speaker 1: tearing it up. I look at this line, I think
Speaker 1: McVeigh Stafford plus three and a half. But there's something
Speaker 1: that tells me, stay away, educate me.
Speaker 2: Your instincts are spot on, and this was the hardest game.
Speaker 2: The other bet that we do on the podcast, it's
Speaker 2: called our Big Balls Bet of the Week, and it's
Speaker 2: the bet we know it's hard to make, but you
Speaker 2: one hundred percent have to have the courage to make it.
Speaker 2: This week it is the Detroit Lions minus three and
Speaker 2: a half over the Los Angeles Rams. And who likes
Speaker 2: to bet a favorite in any scenario, especially when I've
Speaker 2: given you all these trends. But here's the thing about
Speaker 2: these trends. Fifty eight percent, sixty one percent, What that
Speaker 2: really means is that, yeah, you're going to have an
Speaker 2: edge if you bet at long term. What I'm trying
Speaker 2: to do here is thread the needle and catch a
Speaker 2: falling knife, where the other forty percent of the time right,
Speaker 2: it doesn't work right right? And so look, I love
Speaker 2: the Rams and we have made so much money on
Speaker 2: the Rams the past couple of years because I do
Speaker 2: think Matthew Stafford is probably the most, if it's possible,
Speaker 2: the most underrated quarterback. He never gets into the conversation
Speaker 2: of top three, top four, and he should. You If
Speaker 2: there was a great video this fall this offseason, a C. J.
Speaker 2: Shaud talking about quarterbacks he likes to watch, it was
Speaker 2: Matthew Stafford. NFL players loving Matthew Stafford. He is a gamer.
Speaker 2: And what he did last year when Cooper Cup was
Speaker 2: out and turned Puka Nakua into an all world receiver.
Speaker 2: He is brilliant and I really want to bet the Rams,
Speaker 2: but here's the problem, and I want to fade the
Speaker 2: life because the variance is so high when you're betting
Speaker 2: on a Dan Campbell team, because of the way he
Speaker 2: goes forward on fourth down, which can always bite you,
Speaker 2: as it did in the NFC title game. And when
Speaker 2: the Niners came back, they are so foundationally good. And
Speaker 2: when I bet, and when a lot of professionals bet,
Speaker 2: they bet from inside out. They look at the offensive line,
Speaker 2: they look at the defensive line. That's where they start.
Speaker 2: They don't start on the edges, they don't start with
Speaker 2: the quarterbacks. They start foundationally. The lines are one of
Speaker 2: a few teams with top five offensive line, top five
Speaker 2: defensive line. Pinasuel on one side. Then you mentioned Aden Hutchinson.
Speaker 2: I bet Ada Hutchinson fourteen to one to lead the
Speaker 2: league in sacks. Everything coming out of camp was how
Speaker 2: this guy has gotten better and better. And last year
Speaker 2: he was dominant no matter what the situation was, no
Speaker 2: matter how often he was being double teams, he consistently
Speaker 2: got pressure on quarterbacks, even if it wasn't always a sack.
Speaker 2: So if you look at those things, I'm like, wait
Speaker 2: a second. Aaron Donald retired offensive line for the Rams
Speaker 2: in trouble. Jared Goff undefeated against the spread to start
Speaker 2: the season in his career, Jared Goff twenty five to
Speaker 2: nine against spread in doors. Jared Goff the most profitable
Speaker 2: quarterback against the spread the past five years. Dan Campbell
Speaker 2: the most profitable coach against the spread the past five years.
Speaker 2: I know, like it's hard to bet on a more
Speaker 2: than a field goal favorite in a game that ended
Speaker 2: as a very short win for the Lions last year
Speaker 2: in the playoffs, I think the Lions have gotten better.
Speaker 2: I think the Rams have stagnated or a little bit less,
Speaker 2: a little bit worse because their talent isn't as good.
Speaker 2: So it hurts, But I'm on the lines.
Speaker 1: Sharper Square, all odds provided by DraftKings. The favorites have
Speaker 1: a one hundred thousand dollars pick them contest, and it's
Speaker 1: free to play, which is sounds like a bad business
Speaker 1: move by you. You should charge people.
Speaker 2: Colin Listen, we're on the Volume podcast network. We want
Speaker 2: to engage as many people as possible and if it's
Speaker 2: going to cost us money. We don't care if we
Speaker 2: look good. You look good. That's what we care about.
Speaker 2: Anybody can play. And here's what's fun. Me and Simon,
Speaker 2: we will make our five picks. We enter the contest.
Speaker 2: We talk about the picks we're going to enter on
Speaker 2: our show. People love to compete against us. So you
Speaker 2: enter five picks every week you can win be part
Speaker 2: of the one hundred thousand dollars prize pool. Favorites Dot
Speaker 2: Actionnetwork dot Com is the sign up and by the way,
Speaker 2: we give away one thousand a week to the person
Speaker 2: with the best record. So we're giving money away all
Speaker 2: season long in our effort to make the Volume podcast
Speaker 2: Network the biggest podcast network in the world. Go sign up,
Speaker 2: win one hundred brand favorites Dot Action Network dot com.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Favorites is the absolute best sports gambling pod
Speaker 1: in the country. We love having you guys back and God,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go buy a jet ski on that Panthers pick.
Speaker 2: I love.
Speaker 1: That's my pick of the week.
Speaker 2: But here's the problem. Here's the problem. It might not
Speaker 2: go our way. And that's okay. It's okay because in
Speaker 2: the long run, we got to play the fundamentals and
Speaker 2: like it might not work this weekend, over the long run,
Speaker 2: it's gonna work out. But man, I am like so
Speaker 2: invested in this Panthers team. I am so nervous about
Speaker 2: this game. I'm nervous about the Lions game. I'm nervous
Speaker 2: about the Jets game. I'm nervous about the Colts game,
Speaker 2: and the Giants game. I'm sick to my stomach. Brother,
Speaker 2: all right, buddy, seasons back.
Speaker 1: It is one of the more interesting games this weekend
Speaker 1: is Colorado and Deon Sanders and all he brings to
Speaker 1: the table at Nebraska. Now, Travis Hunter and Shador Sanders
Speaker 1: for the Buffaloes are the two best players in the game,
Speaker 1: and they alone may be able to carry Colorado to
Speaker 1: the win. But I like Nebraska for a lot of reasons.
Speaker 1: Number one is, if you go to last year, nobody
Speaker 1: lost more close games down the stretch than Nebraska. They
Speaker 1: were close. They needed a couple of transfers, They needed
Speaker 1: to get a little older on the defensive side. It
Speaker 1: didn't matter if it was Iowa, it was Maryland, it
Speaker 1: was Michigan State. They lost by a field goal. It
Speaker 1: felt like every week, and they were shooting themselves in
Speaker 1: the foot with a lot of ugly turnovers. This defense
Speaker 1: now is different. Six seniors, five junior start and that
Speaker 1: matters a lot of starts against the Colorado offense and
Speaker 1: offensive line that I haven't for the last couple of years. Again,
Speaker 1: Colorado's got the two best players in this game, maybe
Speaker 1: the three or four. Best depth experience. I like Nebraska.
Speaker 1: The other thing is that Colorado has by and large
Speaker 1: last three matchups as at one. Nebraska's not overlooking anybody. Also,
Speaker 1: I tend to look at programs. I think there's baby steps.
Speaker 1: I think when you take over a program, first of all,
Speaker 1: the first sign you're doing it right is you're closing
Speaker 1: the gap. Nebraska last year close losses. Generally those kind
Speaker 1: of teams the following year start turning those into close wins,
Speaker 1: and then the following year, if you have the right
Speaker 1: coach and the right players, you have decisive wins. I
Speaker 1: don't think Nebraska is in a decisive win territory yet
Speaker 1: against the better teams on their schedule, but I don't
Speaker 1: think Colorado is one of the better teams on their schedule.
Speaker 1: I like Nebraska by ten points. I think their defense,
Speaker 1: though it won't be a perfect game, a Shadure Sanders.
Speaker 1: He moves well. I really like him. I mean, I
Speaker 1: almost feel like if Shaudure Sanders, if you're gonna judge
Speaker 1: him just on football, he can be the number one
Speaker 1: pick in the draft. His ability to place the ball,
Speaker 1: moving pocket, moving left, moving right, moving forward. He has
Speaker 1: tremendous ball placement, and he's kind of what everybody's looking for.
Speaker 1: He can win in the pocket, he can win off script.
Speaker 1: So I think Colorado is going to score some points
Speaker 1: to be a handful. But I think Matt Ruhle situationally,
Speaker 1: is a better coach than Dion. Dion's a bigger present.
Speaker 1: Dion may be a better recruiter, But I mean Nebraska
Speaker 1: was I looked it up this morning. Top thirty and
Speaker 1: tackles for loss last season, and now this defense six seniors,
Speaker 1: five juniors, is even older. They got that new quarterback,
Speaker 1: Dylan Reyola. They like him. They are more than capable
Speaker 1: at quarterback. He's not Shoudour Sanders, but he's fine Nebraska
Speaker 1: at home, more experienced defense, Matt rule losing close to
Speaker 1: now winning close. I'm gonna take him by about eight
Speaker 1: to ten points here litll thirty three twenty four kind
Speaker 1: of feels like that to me. I like the Huskers.
Speaker 1: All right, the game of the day, it's on Fox.
Speaker 1: Is Texas their first ever meeting in the Big House
Speaker 1: against Michigan. It's remarkable to think about two brands that
Speaker 1: big that have never faced in the big house. Listen,
Speaker 1: I was a Michigan believer all last year. I mean,
Speaker 1: Harbaugh on the sidelines are not They were hammering people.
Speaker 1: But Michigan lost eight of eleven offensive starters, a star quarterback,
Speaker 1: a star receiver, a star back, top offensive lineman, and
Speaker 1: those were also in many instances leaders. So not only
Speaker 1: do you lose Jim Harbaugh, which I think the cultural
Speaker 1: vibe of the toughest physicality will remain even if this
Speaker 1: coach isn't the right coach. My feeling is, I mean
Speaker 1: Mark Helfrich wasn't the perfect fit for Chip Kelly, but
Speaker 1: for a year you couldn't tell the difference. I think
Speaker 1: there's a lot of momentum program momentum for Michigan, but
Speaker 1: they just lost too many leaders and too much firepower
Speaker 1: on offense, and I think they're a team that will
Speaker 1: be able to win a certain way. I think Texas
Speaker 1: can win anyway, shootout close. They're better at quarterback. Now.
Speaker 1: They lost three receivers to the NFL, but it's Texas,
Speaker 1: it's Sark. I don't worry about the offense. I talked
Speaker 1: to Sark this week. He said it's hard for him
Speaker 1: to differentiate in some instances starters from backups with Texas,
Speaker 1: and we tend to rush to a judgment with these
Speaker 1: high profile coaches A Kiffin, A Sark, A Lincoln Riley,
Speaker 1: a Harbaugh, you can't. This stuff takes two and three years,
Speaker 1: even with big brands to get up to speed. So
Speaker 1: you're in the Ohio state class, you're in the Georgia
Speaker 1: and Alabama class. This is the first time I look
Speaker 1: at Texas and think, yeah, they can go toe to
Speaker 1: toe with anybody. I didn't like him on the back
Speaker 1: end last year. Washington exposed that. Michael Pennix exposed that.
Speaker 1: I think Texas has a chance to play for the
Speaker 1: national championship. I think they bring back more experience that
Speaker 1: offensive line for Texas. Now that's some first and second
Speaker 1: round talent. That's a lot of starts. They may have
Speaker 1: some new receivers, a new back. That's a lot of starts.
Speaker 1: And Quinn Ewers from diet to his play on the
Speaker 1: field is a little bit more structured to me last
Speaker 1: year than what I saw initially. Was not a big fan, initially,
Speaker 1: just played to loose to J Cutler. To me, I
Speaker 1: like Texas here now again. I think it's a pretty
Speaker 1: low scoring game. I think Michigan has some top defenders
Speaker 1: are at home. Even good college teams can struggle away
Speaker 1: from home. I looked at this morning. It opened at
Speaker 1: Texas minus four, it's now Texas minus seven. I think
Speaker 1: the Longhorns win. I think it's probably pretty close. But
Speaker 1: I think you'll watch that game and from a more
Speaker 1: dynamic offense to the better quarterback, I think you're going
Speaker 1: to feel like Texas. They may stumble a little early,
Speaker 1: intimidating big house. I think they pull away late a
Speaker 1: little bit like how Michigan beat Ohio State last couple
Speaker 1: of years, physicality leaned on them late third quarter on.
Speaker 1: You're going to feel like the better team, the better roster,
Speaker 1: the better chance in the National Championship is Texas. I
Speaker 1: like the Horns here by about six the volume. Thanks
Speaker 1: so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast, take
Speaker 1: a moment rate and review