1 00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 1: The volume. All right, Chad Milman's about to stop by. 2 00:00:05,320 --> 00:00:08,280 Speaker 1: Before we start with Chad, grab your smartphone download the 3 00:00:08,360 --> 00:00:11,479 Speaker 1: game Time app. It's a new feature called game Time 4 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:14,920 Speaker 1: Picks that makes getting tickets for your favorite live events 5 00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:18,279 Speaker 1: even easier. Game Time Picks filters out the fluff to 6 00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:20,759 Speaker 1: show you only the incredible deals on great seats, so 7 00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: you don't have to waste time searching through thousands of tickets. 8 00:00:24,200 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 1: Take the guestwork out of buying concert tickets with game Time. 9 00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 1: Download the game Time app. Creat an account. Real quick 10 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:34,279 Speaker 1: code is Colin. That's me for twenty bucks off your 11 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 1: first purchase. Terms apply again. Creat an account. The redeem 12 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 1: code is Colin col N for twenty bucks off. Download 13 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 1: game Time Today. What time is it? Game Time Immediate reaction. 14 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 1: If you wonder why the NFL is king on television 15 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:03,520 Speaker 1: twenty seven to twenty tonight was a great example decided 16 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 1: by that much a toe decides the game. Listen. Baltimore 17 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:13,160 Speaker 1: was outplayed for big chunks of this thing and almost 18 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: almost tied it. They almost certainly would have gone for 19 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 1: two in the win. And that's why Baltimore is so dangerous. 20 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 1: You know. Lamar Jackson did not throw the ball down 21 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 1: the field effectively, nor has he ever as well as 22 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, although Mahomes did not throw the ball down 23 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 1: the field much last year because it was one of 24 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:33,319 Speaker 1: the worst receiving cores in the league. With Worthy, now 25 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 1: that's a deep threat. They've added some dimensions and over 26 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:41,000 Speaker 1: the top receiver Juju Smith Schuster will become more productive 27 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:45,520 Speaker 1: over time. He just got reacquired, so Watson Rice now 28 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 1: where she Rice looks like a number one. Worthy's going 29 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 1: to be a gadget guy early. I don't think he's 30 00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:53,640 Speaker 1: a heavy volume guy, a nine to ten catch guy, 31 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 1: but he adds an element they didn't have. He's an 32 00:01:56,200 --> 00:02:00,160 Speaker 1: over the top playmaker. But it's interesting watching ball the 33 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 1: more they had a lot of offensive penalties, especially early 34 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 1: in the game. They don't throw the ball down the 35 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 1: field enough. And then you get that final drive by 36 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson, where I mean, honestly, he reminds me of 37 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:15,400 Speaker 1: like a great high school player where he's just so 38 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 1: much better than everybody else on the field. He's like 39 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:20,239 Speaker 1: a high school football game and there's one D one 40 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 1: prospect and it's the quarterback and he's just running around 41 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 1: making all these plays. Happen. Lamar Jackson makes other great 42 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 1: pro football players look slow and unathletic, and that's why 43 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:35,519 Speaker 1: I'll always defend him. He's not Mahomes and Peyton Manning 44 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:39,400 Speaker 1: probably wasn't Brady, you know, and Mickelson wasn't Tiger Woods, 45 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 1: and Barkley was an MJ. Lamar Jackson is so productive. 46 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 1: He cares so much. Now, I thought, my one real 47 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:51,960 Speaker 1: negative with Lamar Jackson you can't get hit that many times. 48 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, you can't last seventeen games in the regular season, 49 00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:57,639 Speaker 1: two or three playoff games played like that. Lamar's lost weight, 50 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:00,920 Speaker 1: he's thinner, and he took a beating to Now I 51 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:03,920 Speaker 1: think this game means so much Lamar. He's not gonna slide, 52 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 1: He's not gonna run out of bounds against Kansas City. 53 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:08,920 Speaker 1: So I don't think Lamar is going to play like this. 54 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 1: This this sort of physical football game on average. But 55 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:16,680 Speaker 1: he took a beating tonight, and that Kansas City defense 56 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 1: is fast and physical that you have to reduce. You 57 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:25,280 Speaker 1: can't play like that. But I will defend Lamar to 58 00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:30,080 Speaker 1: the very end. He is such a remarkable player, you know. 59 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:32,360 Speaker 1: He just he doesn't throw the ball down the field consistently. 60 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 1: But he finally has a really nice group of receivers. 61 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:39,520 Speaker 1: Isaiah likely is terrific. That's the football game and the 62 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 1: fact that that guy went down in the back of 63 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 1: the end zone. I thought he broke his ribs. I mean, 64 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 1: he just slammed down on the corner where it's not 65 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 1: you know, it's not padded very well, gets up and 66 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 1: he's making plays. What a gamer. 67 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:53,080 Speaker 2: You know. 68 00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 1: I look at my notes over the course of the game. 69 00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 1: I think here's the really good news for Kansas City. 70 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 1: Last year. It's often discussed right ad nauseum that receiving 71 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:08,880 Speaker 1: corse bad Rashi Rice was young. He felt like maybe 72 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: a two. He felt like a one tonight. You know, now, 73 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 1: is he a great one? Is he a top five 74 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 1: to one? Is he see the lamb? Is he Devonte Adams? No, 75 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 1: but he felt like a real go to, high volume, 76 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:26,039 Speaker 1: thirteen targets nine catch guy for them they have now, Noah, great, 77 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:28,839 Speaker 1: they've got a second tight end. Watson's around, Juju Smith, 78 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:32,279 Speaker 1: Schuster and again Xavi are worthy. You know, I joked 79 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:34,480 Speaker 1: when they drafted him, I'm like, he's a track guy. 80 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 1: He's one hundred and sixty five pounds. You know, I 81 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:39,479 Speaker 1: don't think that he's going to lead them to the 82 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:42,240 Speaker 1: super Bowl, but he adds a dimension to an offense 83 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:45,360 Speaker 1: that since Tyreek Hill left, they don't have a downfield threat. 84 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:47,839 Speaker 1: So you know, for the longest time of the game, 85 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:50,320 Speaker 1: he just had that one, you know, reverse touchdown, but 86 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 1: blown coverage later he gets a second touchdown and you 87 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 1: have to account for him. You know, that's the bottom line. 88 00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,280 Speaker 1: Last year, you didn't have to account for anybody. Nobody 89 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 1: scared you down the field. Well, now they have a 90 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:04,600 Speaker 1: one in Rashie Rice. They have a downfield threat. They 91 00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 1: have multiple Watson, Noah Gray, Travis Kelcey. They've solved their 92 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:14,040 Speaker 1: weapons issue. For the record, how the hell did Isaiah Pichecko? 93 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 1: What did he drop to the seventh round? How did 94 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:19,320 Speaker 1: they get him in the seventh round? That guy's insane. 95 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:23,159 Speaker 1: It's just it's amazing to me. You get to the 96 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 1: fourteenth player in the NBA Draft, you're out of players. 97 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 1: Rock Purty's the last gun I taken, and Isaiah Pichecko. 98 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 1: I think he was a seventh round guy. God, how 99 00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:36,000 Speaker 1: did all these gms watch film and just keep passing 100 00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 1: on him? He's impossible to bring down run so hard 101 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 1: he can catch it out of the backfield. What a 102 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 1: weapon he is. So Kansas City's weapons shortage, They're going 103 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:52,039 Speaker 1: to be fine there. And this is you're just looking 104 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 1: at two great organizations. I love watching these two play. 105 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:58,159 Speaker 1: And there's a reason Kansas City keeps winning. Andy Reid, 106 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:02,280 Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. You know, they led twenty to ten at 107 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:06,279 Speaker 1: one point. I kind of felt first half, I thought 108 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 1: Baltimore was just kind of trying to find its footing. 109 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:11,640 Speaker 1: They weren't throwing the ball down the field. Second half, 110 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 1: Kansas City, in that screen game, pulls away. I thought, 111 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:17,719 Speaker 1: you know, if you watch that game, you could say 112 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 1: Kansas City controlled big chunks of it. And here comes 113 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 1: Lamar just putting the team on his back, taking too 114 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:27,720 Speaker 1: many shots, running down the field, making big plays. The 115 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 1: guy's just an al timer, just an absolute al teimer. 116 00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:34,120 Speaker 1: But you know, sports is like this. You know, if 117 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 1: you take Tiger Woods out, think how many tour events 118 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 1: Mickelson wins. I mean, Philip, he had to have over 119 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:43,839 Speaker 1: like forty five tour wins. Didn't he take out one guy? 120 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:48,279 Speaker 1: Take out Barkley, and it changes take out MJ. It 121 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:52,799 Speaker 1: changes Barkley's career with titles take out John Elway's career, 122 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:56,800 Speaker 1: Joe Montana Brady. There's so many great athletes who we 123 00:06:57,160 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: spend so much time criticizing because they can't beat the ledge. 124 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,280 Speaker 1: And I talked about that on FS one today. God 125 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 1: Lamar is just so unique and so gifted, but he 126 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:09,520 Speaker 1: took a beating tonight, and you just can't play that way. 127 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 1: A day with Baltimore and Kansas City each to night, 128 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 1: all the weapons, all the talented players on the perimeter 129 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 1: and running backs, I kept thinking, does Buffalo match up 130 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 1: with these guys now that Stefan Diggs is out? Like 131 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 1: I'm watching all these weapons for Kansas City and Baltimore, 132 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:29,040 Speaker 1: including their quarterbacks. You know who matches up in the 133 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 1: AFC Houston. Houston's got these kind of weapons, adding Joe 134 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 1: Mixonstefon Diggs, Tank Dell Nicocollins, c J. 135 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 2: Stroud. 136 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 1: Like I'm both these teams tonight. I mean it's tight ends, 137 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 1: it's wide receivers, it's slot guys, it's running backs, it's 138 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:51,040 Speaker 1: all time quarterbacks. You know Buffalo is I like cook 139 00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:54,720 Speaker 1: a couple good tight ends, a rookie receiver. You know, 140 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 1: Buffalo maybe what Kansas City was last year, and they 141 00:07:57,200 --> 00:08:00,320 Speaker 1: may be weapons short. And that's why a lot of people, 142 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 1: myself included, kind of like Houston. I mean, at some 143 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:06,200 Speaker 1: point last year may have been the year to beat 144 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 1: Kansas City. That may have been the year. You know, 145 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:13,160 Speaker 1: they weren't going to have home field, They couldn't beat 146 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:16,240 Speaker 1: you in a track meet. They had the gate, keep 147 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 1: the games pretty close and low scoring. Now this team's 148 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:23,160 Speaker 1: back to I mean again, this is Worthy's first game. 149 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 1: What's xavierer Worthy going to do when week eight through 150 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 1: thirteen we ten through seventeen. So last year may have 151 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:36,440 Speaker 1: been the year to get Kansas City. What a night. 152 00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 1: I chewed two pieces of my neuro gum to stay 153 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:43,319 Speaker 1: up tonight. I'm not messing around now. I may be 154 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 1: staring at the ceiling at one in the morning. That 155 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:49,440 Speaker 1: was a beauty. Sometimes I feel so lucky to do 156 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 1: what I do for a living. I'm sitting there tonight, 157 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:54,480 Speaker 1: I ordered door Dash, eating some Mexican food, and I'm 158 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 1: sitting there watching that and I'm like, I mean, this 159 00:08:56,800 --> 00:09:02,720 Speaker 1: is how good is this? Arrowhead Holmes read Harball Lamar Jackson, 160 00:09:02,920 --> 00:09:05,959 Speaker 1: and I'll just say it again. Baltimore didn't play particularly 161 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:09,120 Speaker 1: well and it was this close, so you can sell 162 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 1: all your Ravens stock. I'm buying it. I didn't think 163 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 1: they played that well. I didn't think Lamar played that well. 164 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:19,720 Speaker 1: And he's driving him down against that incredible defense, you know, 165 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:23,080 Speaker 1: because of Reid and Mahomes, that Kansas City defense. It'll 166 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 1: just never get the love. It is so fast, so twitchy, 167 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:32,160 Speaker 1: consistent pass rush, Chris Jones, edge rush, linebackers that move well. 168 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:35,840 Speaker 1: That's it where Baltimore probably goes for two and has 169 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 1: a chance to win. When you don't play particularly well 170 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:40,680 Speaker 1: on the road and narrowhead and almost beat the Chiefs, 171 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:43,280 Speaker 1: I'd be worried these two will meet again. That's what 172 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 1: it feels like to me. NFL Week one is here 173 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:50,679 Speaker 1: in a new season, means new ways to get in 174 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:53,160 Speaker 1: on the action at DraftKings sports Book and official sports 175 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:56,320 Speaker 1: betting partner of the NFL. So fans have spoken they 176 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 1: want to bet on touchdowns. Draft Kings hurt us. 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Additional NFL 201 00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 3: Plus premium terms at NFL dot com slash terms. 202 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:25,200 Speaker 1: All Right, it's time for another season of Sharp or Square. 203 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 1: After quite a sabbatical, I am now working again on 204 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 1: almost a full time basis. Chad Milman, C COO of 205 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:35,480 Speaker 1: the Action Network. The favorites, by the way, I have 206 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:37,880 Speaker 1: one thousand dollars pick them contests free to play. We'll 207 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:38,560 Speaker 1: get to that later. 208 00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:42,560 Speaker 2: All the one hundred thousand, one hundred thousand, man, we're 209 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 2: giving away one hundred thousand dollars. Wow, thousand, one hundred 210 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 2: thous We don't do one thousand on the Volume podcast network. 211 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:51,320 Speaker 2: We're big time. 212 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 1: All of our odds provided by DraftKings. I spent a 213 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 1: lot of time this summer in uh, you know, in 214 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:02,280 Speaker 1: a place out east, very close to where you live. 215 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 1: I played a lot of golf and during that time 216 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 1: a lot of time to think about odds, and I 217 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:17,040 Speaker 1: almost did not do a first week of this. And 218 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:21,720 Speaker 1: my take has been the world's changed. All these sharps 219 00:12:21,920 --> 00:12:25,720 Speaker 1: pick at these line one odds. They have all summer 220 00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:27,960 Speaker 1: to pick at these puppies. Once they're available. This is 221 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:30,840 Speaker 1: a terrible week to bet. And then I look at 222 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 1: the numbers this week and I'm like, they may not 223 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 1: be the best, but I got a couple I like, 224 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 1: and I'm gonna start with one of them that I'm 225 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:46,079 Speaker 1: being warned about. Arizona plus six and a half at Buffalo. 226 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 1: I thought the Cardinals were a tough out at the 227 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:52,160 Speaker 1: end of last year. I think the last couple of 228 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 1: drafts they've hit on some playmakers. I like Kyler Murray. 229 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 1: I think he's hard to duplicate preparing for He's like 230 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:02,200 Speaker 1: nobody else in the league. He's like to me, he's 231 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 1: a better version of Russell Wilson in his prime, and 232 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:07,360 Speaker 1: Russell was pretty good. I think Arizona plus six and 233 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 1: a half is not only the play I think they 234 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 1: could win Sharper square. 235 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:21,679 Speaker 2: Ish like of all the games they just I'm with you, brother, Like, 236 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:25,600 Speaker 2: I actually think there's a lot of opportunity in Week one. 237 00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 2: Arizona is a team. I'm not gonna lie to you. 238 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 2: Wise guys love they think that in the NFC West. 239 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 2: They love Seattle, they love Mike McDonald as a coach. 240 00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 2: They are really bullish on Arizona. This number actually clicked 241 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:46,280 Speaker 2: down got down to six. It was much higher even 242 00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:49,360 Speaker 2: during the offseason. It's ticked a little bit back up. 243 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 2: I think there was some over exuberance on the Cardinals. 244 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:57,040 Speaker 2: And don't forget, this is the kind of game that 245 00:13:57,080 --> 00:14:00,920 Speaker 2: the Bills historically not just cover but dominate, right, And 246 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:06,079 Speaker 2: so there are so many unknowns in this game. Professional betters. 247 00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:08,959 Speaker 2: They are going to lean towards underdogs in Week one, 248 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 2: and that's going to be a theme for everything we're 249 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 2: talking about. And I've got a lot of numbers to 250 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 2: back it up for folks, but this one is trickier. 251 00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 2: I think it's six and a half. Yes, if it 252 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:22,720 Speaker 2: goes back down to six, probably, No, don't forget. Six 253 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 2: has become a lot more of a key number with 254 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:28,920 Speaker 2: extra point sort of inaccuracy and inconsistency. So I can't 255 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 2: give you a definitive. I can say if I got 256 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 2: to play aside, I'm playing Arizona, but I don't. I 257 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:38,000 Speaker 2: don't think it's blazon by any means. 258 00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 1: Okay, that wasn't my best pick. I'm just throwing shit out. 259 00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 2: Good good, let's warm up. Let's just warm up. 260 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:46,560 Speaker 1: The one I really like is Carolina plus three and 261 00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:48,840 Speaker 1: a half of the Saints. I think New Orleans is 262 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 1: poorly quarterbacked and poorly coached. I think they'll be the 263 00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:55,320 Speaker 1: first team to jettison their head coach. I think Carolina 264 00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: massive coach upgrade. If you look at the wide receiver 265 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 1: nit last year worse than the league next to New England, 266 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:06,600 Speaker 1: They've actually upgraded, so starters are now backups and it's like, oh, 267 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:08,760 Speaker 1: mingo can be a three or four, not a one 268 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:11,960 Speaker 1: or a two. I look at Carolina, I'd go money line. 269 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:13,480 Speaker 1: I think they win this game straight out. 270 00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 2: Sharper square, dude, you are insu knife sharp right now. 271 00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 2: That is you have gone from kind of med mid 272 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:27,560 Speaker 2: as the kids like to say, to full on super sharp. 273 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:31,200 Speaker 2: Caroline has been a team that at the Action Network 274 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 2: we have been hammering all off season. We have been 275 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:38,720 Speaker 2: hammering their season win total over that jumped up from 276 00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 2: four and a half to five and a half. We've 277 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 2: been hammering their odds to win the division. Everything about 278 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 2: this team last year, and you and I talked a 279 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:49,200 Speaker 2: lot about this in previous seasons. We do this thing 280 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:53,240 Speaker 2: called luck rankings. It's basically takes all of the randomness 281 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:56,320 Speaker 2: of football and puts it into a formula and then 282 00:15:56,360 --> 00:16:00,160 Speaker 2: applies it throughout the season. Last year, the Panthers were 283 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:04,440 Speaker 2: one of the most unlucky teams in the NFL that 284 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 2: is always bound to regress. In sort of very analytic terms, 285 00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:12,720 Speaker 2: they won about a game and a half less than 286 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:15,640 Speaker 2: they should have based on the stats and the randomness 287 00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 2: of games. So now, all of a sudden, they've improved 288 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:23,120 Speaker 2: their offensive line, right, They've got a couple of new guards, 289 00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:26,880 Speaker 2: They've improved at receiver, They've improved their coaching. Let's be 290 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 2: very clear, Dave Canalis the new head coach, he was 291 00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 2: the head coach. He was the coordinator in Seattle when 292 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:35,760 Speaker 2: Gino Smith went from journeyman to pro bowler. He was 293 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:38,440 Speaker 2: the coordinator for Tampa Bay when Baker Mayfield went from 294 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:41,760 Speaker 2: journeyman to leading the team to the playoffs. Now, all 295 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 2: of a sudden, he's got Bryce Young, who there's a 296 00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:47,280 Speaker 2: lot of negativity about. That's why this line is so inflated. 297 00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:49,640 Speaker 2: This line was at four and a half. It's gone 298 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 2: down to four because wise guys are betting it. And 299 00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:55,520 Speaker 2: you cited about the Saints. There was a survey before 300 00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 2: the seat, before we got the preseason, which fan base 301 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 2: had the least optimist them about their team. It was 302 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:04,879 Speaker 2: the New Orleans Saints who has the shortest odds to 303 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 2: be fired first Dennis Allen, who is hearing footsteps from 304 00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:13,440 Speaker 2: Spencer Rattler right now Derek Carr. Dennis Allen and Derek Carr, 305 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 2: in their respective positions as head coach and quarterback, are 306 00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:22,120 Speaker 2: two of the worst against the spread of any grouping 307 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:25,720 Speaker 2: for the past twenty years. They are terrible as favorites, 308 00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:29,440 Speaker 2: also just generally bad. Dennis Allen is historically bad as 309 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 2: a head coach with the minimum seventy games, which is 310 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:34,000 Speaker 2: what he has. So you are spot on one stat 311 00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 2: for you NFL Division underdogs in Week one since twenty fourteen. 312 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:44,199 Speaker 2: So the Panthers as underdogs to the Saints seventy one 313 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:46,679 Speaker 2: percent against the spread, not only that they cover the 314 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 2: spread by an average five points per game, which largely 315 00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:52,600 Speaker 2: says I agree with you. You could take a little bit 316 00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 2: of a taste and I never mind this like a 317 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:59,480 Speaker 2: quarter unit on the underdog to win outright, all. 318 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:03,040 Speaker 1: Right, concern could be a monsoon. But Commander's plus three 319 00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 1: and a half at the Bucks. I think Tampa has 320 00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:08,440 Speaker 1: to guess what Washington's doing. They have to go watch 321 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:13,200 Speaker 1: Arizona footage, LSU footage. Washington knows exactly what they are. 322 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury banged the table for Jaden Daniels. Dan Quinn 323 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:21,200 Speaker 1: was a very good coach when he had the right coordinator. 324 00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:24,639 Speaker 1: I think this coordinator. I talked to a GM that 325 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:27,600 Speaker 1: hired him, Steve Kayin. He said, Cliff is great. He said, 326 00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:30,080 Speaker 1: I don't know if he's an NFL head coach, the 327 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:33,720 Speaker 1: discipline is an issue, but as an NFL coordinator or 328 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:36,840 Speaker 1: a college coach, he said, I would back him forever. 329 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 1: This is a great role for Kingsbury. I think Washington's 330 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 1: personnel's fine. Tampa's guessing. I think they pull back as 331 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:46,920 Speaker 1: a team this year. Tampa. I'm gonna take Commanders plus 332 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:48,280 Speaker 1: three and a half Sharper square. 333 00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:51,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's sharp. I mean it's not the favorite. Like 334 00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:53,560 Speaker 2: if I had eight bets I had to make this weekend. 335 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 2: This is probably seventh or eighth, right, I will be 336 00:18:57,000 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 2: playing the Commanders. But this team right now. I just 337 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:05,040 Speaker 2: talked about the luck rankings the Buccaneers, and you noted 338 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:08,200 Speaker 2: there's going to be some regression. The Buccaneers were amongst 339 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 2: the luckiest teams in the NFL last year and the 340 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,919 Speaker 2: Commanders were one of the ten most unlucky. So just 341 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:19,120 Speaker 2: the gap between these two teams is reflected, I think 342 00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:21,280 Speaker 2: in a higher than it should be points spread because 343 00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:24,679 Speaker 2: of perception. Right the Commanders number two, number three overall. 344 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 2: Pick the Buccaneers. They made the playoffs, they had a 345 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:31,639 Speaker 2: good run. They have lost important aspects of that team, 346 00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:36,720 Speaker 2: specifically Dave Canalis Baker fourteen and twenty six in his 347 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:40,840 Speaker 2: career as a favorite. Everything about this game says take 348 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 2: the Commanders, So the wise guys are with you. 349 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:48,879 Speaker 1: An interesting game. I don't like big favorites in the 350 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,720 Speaker 1: opening week, and I think bo Nix and Sean Payton 351 00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:55,160 Speaker 1: are going to be excellent together compared to what the 352 00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:57,200 Speaker 1: market predicts. I think there were a seven win team, 353 00:19:57,240 --> 00:20:00,920 Speaker 1: not a four win team. Do not like him rookies 354 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 1: starting Week one on the road against a very sharp 355 00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:09,520 Speaker 1: maybe the next Demko Ryan's defensive coach Seattle. I like 356 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:13,960 Speaker 1: Pete Carroll last two years they underwhelmed. They have better talent. 357 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:18,240 Speaker 1: I mean offensively, it's Noah's Ark. Two receivers, two tight ends, 358 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:21,040 Speaker 1: two running backs, two tackles. I like everything. I think 359 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 1: Seattle minus six is to play. This is a rough spot, 360 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,120 Speaker 1: and I like bo Nicks. This is a rough opening week. 361 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:28,600 Speaker 1: I take Seattle minus six. 362 00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:34,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, look, that's the exact right spot. Historically, rookie quarterbacks 363 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:38,680 Speaker 2: on the road are just terrible. Rookie first round picks 364 00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 2: on the road average eighteen points per game the past 365 00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:46,159 Speaker 2: ten years. It is not a good spot. There is 366 00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:51,080 Speaker 2: a lot of professional better love for Mike McDonald. They 367 00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:54,719 Speaker 2: loved the game plans he put together when he was 368 00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 2: the defensive coordinator in Baltimore. They are expecting a much 369 00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,680 Speaker 2: better defense in Seattle. I think that's what you're seeing 370 00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:04,719 Speaker 2: here is just a little bit of a difference in 371 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,560 Speaker 2: talent on the roster historically. Wise guys, they don't like 372 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:11,399 Speaker 2: to bet against Sean Payton that they like. Sean Payton 373 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:14,760 Speaker 2: is their favorite coach right along with Mike Tomlin. But 374 00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:17,640 Speaker 2: Mike McDonald's in the spot like they look at him 375 00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 2: not as a rookie head coach in a lot of ways, 376 00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:21,600 Speaker 2: the way that people looked at Tamiko Ryes last year. 377 00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 2: They got a lot of faith in what he can do. 378 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:24,119 Speaker 2: So Whise guys, you're with you. 379 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,720 Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Jets plus four and a half against 380 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:31,240 Speaker 1: the Niners. It's a noisy game the Baggage Bowl, but 381 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:36,399 Speaker 1: Trent Williams can't be in great shape. I do worry 382 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,680 Speaker 1: about Hassan Reddick not in camp because they lost Huff 383 00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:42,440 Speaker 1: to the Eagles, but I don't worry too much about 384 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:46,720 Speaker 1: pass rush. I don't like the Niners offensive line, especially 385 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:50,439 Speaker 1: when Trent just gets back into camp. That feels like 386 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:54,160 Speaker 1: it's just too rich. I don't know if they win, 387 00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:57,240 Speaker 1: but god, I don't get the line at all. I 388 00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:01,240 Speaker 1: would take the Jets plus four and a half, sharp, square. 389 00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:04,720 Speaker 2: Totally sharp. It's what's really interesting about this, Colin is 390 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 2: since Trent Williams signed, the line has moved a full 391 00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:13,639 Speaker 2: point from three and a half to four and a half. 392 00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:17,960 Speaker 2: That's how much bookmakers and then the public betters believe 393 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:22,000 Speaker 2: Trent Williams was worth. They have steamed this line up, 394 00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,480 Speaker 2: and wise guys are happy to take to four and 395 00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:26,520 Speaker 2: a half. You mentioned the offensive line for to the 396 00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 2: forty nine ers. That's the weakness of their team, right 397 00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:31,200 Speaker 2: And even with Trump Williams, who is probably the best 398 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:34,240 Speaker 2: left tackle in the NFL, they are able to mask 399 00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:38,679 Speaker 2: that weakness because Kyle Shanahan's scheme is so good in 400 00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:41,000 Speaker 2: the way he can move the ball around that they're 401 00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 2: able to get away with having an offensive line that 402 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,239 Speaker 2: is a little bit mediocre. The Jets have one of 403 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,359 Speaker 2: the best defensive lines in the NFL, and I agree 404 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:52,919 Speaker 2: with you about Hassan Raddick. The guy hasn't played for 405 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:54,960 Speaker 2: the Jets at all, so they don't really know what 406 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 2: they're missing. And obviously Bryce hoff being gone is an impact, 407 00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:02,560 Speaker 2: but they have a doubt defensive line. They will find 408 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:06,200 Speaker 2: a way to get to the quarterback against this offensive line. 409 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 2: The wise guys love love the Jets in this spot. 410 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:18,040 Speaker 1: All right, another game. I never trust the Browns, ever, 411 00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 1: I love their coach, and I have real questions about 412 00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:27,640 Speaker 1: the depth of Dallas's offensive talent. I worry about blocking 413 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:31,600 Speaker 1: Miles Garrett, But god, I know what I get from 414 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,800 Speaker 1: Dak and Mike McCarthy. I don't know what the hell 415 00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,560 Speaker 1: I get with Deshaun Watson. I get Dallas plus two 416 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,760 Speaker 1: and a half. I'm gonna take them. I'm gonna take 417 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:43,240 Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Cowboys. Sharper square. 418 00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's sharp, but not a lot of conviction. Like 419 00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,720 Speaker 2: it's not you know, I just said, there's probably eight best. 420 00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:51,160 Speaker 1: My voice told you I didn't have a lot of conviction. 421 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, you don't have a lot of conviction. I'm actually 422 00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,160 Speaker 2: surprised you chose it. I don't know if you feel 423 00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:57,439 Speaker 2: like you got to talk about the Cowboys is like 424 00:23:57,480 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 2: the lowest common denominator as a member of the meeting. 425 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,960 Speaker 2: But it's not a game that I'm excited about, like 426 00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:06,879 Speaker 2: as a better for all the reasons you just said. 427 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,520 Speaker 2: I think the Cowboys are are the Houston Rockets circa 428 00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:14,960 Speaker 2: twenty twelve of the NFL, right, a lot of talent. 429 00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:18,920 Speaker 2: They're great in the regular season, fall apart when it matters. 430 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:21,680 Speaker 2: I'm not a buyer on McCarthy. I just don't think 431 00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:24,160 Speaker 2: he's a very good coach. I think what you said 432 00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,400 Speaker 2: about the lack of depth on offense is a real issue, 433 00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:29,120 Speaker 2: and that's continued to be an issue for the past 434 00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:31,960 Speaker 2: couple of years. Listen the Browns defense last year at 435 00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:35,680 Speaker 2: home historic Miles Garrett. We just talked about Trent Williams 436 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:39,560 Speaker 2: being a line changer when it comes to moving the 437 00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:42,480 Speaker 2: point spread. Miles Garrett is like that. Miles Garrett is 438 00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:45,639 Speaker 2: the kind of defensive force from a betting perspective and 439 00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:49,040 Speaker 2: from a line making perspective that JJ Watt was about 440 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,879 Speaker 2: twelve years ago. Book makers have to account for his 441 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,879 Speaker 2: presence with a point half a point in terms of 442 00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 2: the spread. But we don't know anything about Deshaun Watson. 443 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:00,119 Speaker 2: And also, I will tell you one other thing that 444 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,000 Speaker 2: I think is sticking out in people's minds. From a 445 00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:05,960 Speaker 2: professional betting point of view. Bill Callahan is an offensive 446 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:09,399 Speaker 2: line coach genius, and he is one of the reasons 447 00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:12,639 Speaker 2: why that Brown's team. They could lose Nick Chubb, they 448 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:14,880 Speaker 2: could lose any running back, get someone back in there, 449 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:16,919 Speaker 2: and anybody who's going to make that team produce. I 450 00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:20,119 Speaker 2: love Kevin Stefanski too. He left. He went to the 451 00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:22,160 Speaker 2: Titans to work with his son, who's now the head 452 00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,320 Speaker 2: coach at the Titans. So I do think the wise 453 00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:27,960 Speaker 2: guys are on the Cowboys, but no one's banging the drum, 454 00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,119 Speaker 2: being like rushing the counter. I gotta get on the 455 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:30,960 Speaker 2: Cowboys right now. 456 00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:35,880 Speaker 1: Okay, this one's painful for me to make because. 457 00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:36,840 Speaker 2: I am really beast kind. 458 00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:40,080 Speaker 1: I know, I really want to see the Bears flourish, 459 00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,080 Speaker 1: and I think they will. But God, if the line 460 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:49,320 Speaker 1: goes to plus four for the Titans, rookie quarterback Titans 461 00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 1: plus the points you're shaking your head Sharper square. 462 00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:57,880 Speaker 2: It's totally sharp. And look, it pains me as Chicago 463 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:02,200 Speaker 2: in as someone who loves this team so much and 464 00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:07,840 Speaker 2: was weepy eyed watching all of the hard knocks stuff, 465 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:11,320 Speaker 2: seeing the team walk in and out of Hollis Hall, 466 00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:16,439 Speaker 2: practicing in Lake Forest, the introductions, making it feel like 467 00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:19,560 Speaker 2: this is the premier franchise in the NFL because of 468 00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:23,760 Speaker 2: its history, even though we've only won one Super Bowl. Dude, 469 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:28,960 Speaker 2: this hype is just too much. I mean, it's still 470 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:32,480 Speaker 2: a team that has not breached five hundred and god 471 00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:36,119 Speaker 2: knows how long. It's still a team with a rookie quarterback. 472 00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:38,119 Speaker 2: It's now a team where if you want to bet 473 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,200 Speaker 2: on the Bear season win total, you got to bet 474 00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:43,280 Speaker 2: that they're going to be over five hundred. A rookie 475 00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,639 Speaker 2: quarterback in a division that has the Packers, who a 476 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:48,320 Speaker 2: lot of people think could go to the super Bowl, 477 00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:50,879 Speaker 2: the Lions, who a lot of people think should be 478 00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:54,119 Speaker 2: the number one seed in the NFC this year. Like, 479 00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:57,080 Speaker 2: this is a lot And I know Caleb Williams says 480 00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:59,760 Speaker 2: I don't get nervous before games, he should get nervous 481 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:04,560 Speaker 2: because this Tennessee team has improved at every single place 482 00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,159 Speaker 2: they need to improve. They've gotten much better in the 483 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:11,120 Speaker 2: defensive backfield with Lugerious Snead. They've gotten better at receiver. 484 00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:13,879 Speaker 2: They have improved their offensive line, not just in scheme 485 00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:16,800 Speaker 2: and talent, but with coaching. I worry about the Bears 486 00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:20,280 Speaker 2: in this spot, way way too much hype and enthusiasm. 487 00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:21,000 Speaker 2: All right. 488 00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:25,080 Speaker 1: We always end with a game that I missed, but 489 00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:28,000 Speaker 1: also a game that I don't have the courage to bet, 490 00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:32,000 Speaker 1: but I just want your opinion. Sam Darnold minus points 491 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,879 Speaker 1: on the road scares me, but god, the Giants are bad. 492 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:40,360 Speaker 1: Minnesota minus two. I think I'd swallow the two with Minnesota. 493 00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:42,639 Speaker 1: Talk me in or out of that game. 494 00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,360 Speaker 2: No, you don't want to swallow the two of Minnesota. 495 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:47,120 Speaker 2: You want to take the Giants and look, this one 496 00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,680 Speaker 2: is divided. I'm not going to lie to you. Simon 497 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,919 Speaker 2: Hunter and I do the Favorites podcast on the Volume 498 00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:56,280 Speaker 2: Podcast Networks. We will always do a segment called Sharp 499 00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:59,040 Speaker 2: Calls where professional betters who listen to our show on 500 00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:02,520 Speaker 2: Tuesday will call us on Wednesday and tell us everything 501 00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:04,359 Speaker 2: they agree with, then everything they disagree with. It is 502 00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,040 Speaker 2: the greatest peanut gallery in the world. When we did 503 00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:09,080 Speaker 2: our Thursday show and we did the sharp Call segment, 504 00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:13,800 Speaker 2: this was the biggest division was half the group was 505 00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:15,720 Speaker 2: on the Vikings. Half the group is on the Giants. 506 00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:18,600 Speaker 2: I feel like Simon and I are in a bit 507 00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:21,240 Speaker 2: of a foxhole with this game. I like the Giants. 508 00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:25,320 Speaker 2: I actually have bet the Vikings fifteen to one for 509 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:28,640 Speaker 2: the worst record in the NFL this year. Their schedule 510 00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:32,720 Speaker 2: after they play the Giant Goal Niners, Texans, Packers, Jets, 511 00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:35,160 Speaker 2: this team, if they don't win against the Giants, they 512 00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:37,400 Speaker 2: could be winless when we get to the end of October. 513 00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:40,920 Speaker 2: So I like the Giants. Here. There's some really important 514 00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 2: trends that we actually haven't gotten to yet that I 515 00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:48,840 Speaker 2: think are really important. Underdogs between one and five and 516 00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 2: a half points in Week one since twenty eighteen covered 517 00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:55,360 Speaker 2: a sixty four percent clip. It's a pretty big sample 518 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,560 Speaker 2: size for more than one hundred and fifty games, so 519 00:28:57,800 --> 00:28:59,680 Speaker 2: and favorites of one to three and a half points 520 00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:02,640 Speaker 2: cover only forty three percent at the time in September, 521 00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,600 Speaker 2: So we've got pretty good trends when we talk about 522 00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:09,760 Speaker 2: bettings weeks one, especially as you were discussing when we 523 00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:12,959 Speaker 2: open the segment that show you why you can take 524 00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,840 Speaker 2: advantage and why you want to bet underdogs. This is 525 00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:18,320 Speaker 2: also a really interesting coach matchup to me right two 526 00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:21,080 Speaker 2: years ago. These guys are the Bell of the Ball 527 00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:23,520 Speaker 2: and day Ball wins Coach of the Year. Both of 528 00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:26,880 Speaker 2: these teams are winning games that are less than one 529 00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:30,680 Speaker 2: score games and they're winning them consistently. They play each 530 00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:33,239 Speaker 2: other in the playoffs, day Ball and Daniel Jones going 531 00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:36,280 Speaker 2: to Minnesota. They beat Kirk Cousins and Kevin O'Donnell, Kevin O'Connell, 532 00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:39,520 Speaker 2: and so there's a lot of sentiment that Brian Dayball 533 00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:41,720 Speaker 2: is a really good coach, and then last year everything 534 00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:43,520 Speaker 2: falls apart for both of them. So I do think 535 00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:46,800 Speaker 2: there's a little bit too much hate on the Giants 536 00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:51,120 Speaker 2: right now and a little bit too much credit on 537 00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:58,080 Speaker 2: the Vikings. Sam Darnold should not be a road favorite ever, 538 00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:02,680 Speaker 2: He shouldn't be a road favorite in any scenario. He 539 00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:04,600 Speaker 2: just shouldn't. So you got to take the Giants. 540 00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:08,160 Speaker 1: Okay, finally a game I missed. I am betting you 541 00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:12,520 Speaker 1: it's Colts plus the points. I know it's the Colt plus. 542 00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:13,440 Speaker 1: The point is it of. 543 00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:19,160 Speaker 2: Course it is. I knew, Yeah, it's one hundred percent 544 00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:22,360 Speaker 2: the Colts plus I think you can get them plus 545 00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:25,200 Speaker 2: three some places plus three and a half. Now this 546 00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:28,280 Speaker 2: line was two and a half forty eight hours ago. 547 00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:32,720 Speaker 2: The public is steaming in on the Texans and the 548 00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:36,640 Speaker 2: wise guys are buying on the Colts, and look, it's 549 00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:40,840 Speaker 2: a little tricky. Anthony Richardson has basically played like seventeen 550 00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,880 Speaker 2: games a quarterback I know, since high school. I know, right, 551 00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:46,840 Speaker 2: And then you got the Texans who look like they 552 00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:49,160 Speaker 2: are all world. But I do want to give some 553 00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:53,040 Speaker 2: context here. The Texans do not win the AFC South 554 00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:57,760 Speaker 2: if Trevor Lawrence doesn't get injured. The Colts almost made 555 00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:02,000 Speaker 2: the playoffs with Gardner Minshew playing the majority of the 556 00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:06,080 Speaker 2: games last season. I think Shane steiken is a genius 557 00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:09,200 Speaker 2: as a coach, and what he did with Minshew and 558 00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:13,280 Speaker 2: what he was starting to do with Anthony Richardson is brilliant. 559 00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:16,000 Speaker 2: And I think the level of play that the Eagles 560 00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,280 Speaker 2: had last year on offense and what you saw from 561 00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:22,200 Speaker 2: the Colts is a direct correlation between Shane Steikeen being 562 00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:25,200 Speaker 2: an Indie and not being with Philly anymore. I think 563 00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:30,120 Speaker 2: there's a huge advantage there also to repeat division underdogs 564 00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:33,440 Speaker 2: thirty seven to fifteen and one against spread in week 565 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:36,600 Speaker 2: one since twenty fourteen. That's seventy one percent. This is 566 00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:40,560 Speaker 2: a really good spot for the Colts against a overvalued 567 00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:42,800 Speaker 2: Texans team. 568 00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:46,120 Speaker 1: I want you to just give my audience something here, 569 00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:52,600 Speaker 1: just entertain me and make my audience smarter. So I 570 00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:55,960 Speaker 1: think the Rams the last two years, last year and 571 00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:58,880 Speaker 1: this year are undervalued. But their old line is a 572 00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:03,520 Speaker 1: bit of a musical chair situation. Sean McVeagh and Stafford 573 00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,600 Speaker 1: getting three and a half against an average defense feels 574 00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:10,880 Speaker 1: like stealing money. But I'm really reticent in this spot. 575 00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:15,160 Speaker 1: I don't like their old line Hutchison had according to 576 00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:18,200 Speaker 1: you know, all the Lion news. They're like, he's now 577 00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:20,560 Speaker 1: the best defensive rush end of the league. He's just 578 00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:23,440 Speaker 1: tearing it up. I look at this line, I think 579 00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:27,240 Speaker 1: McVeigh Stafford plus three and a half. But there's something 580 00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:30,760 Speaker 1: that tells me, stay away, educate me. 581 00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:36,200 Speaker 2: Your instincts are spot on, and this was the hardest game. 582 00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:39,640 Speaker 2: The other bet that we do on the podcast, it's 583 00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:42,320 Speaker 2: called our Big Balls Bet of the Week, and it's 584 00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:46,200 Speaker 2: the bet we know it's hard to make, but you 585 00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:50,000 Speaker 2: one hundred percent have to have the courage to make it. 586 00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:54,520 Speaker 2: This week it is the Detroit Lions minus three and 587 00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:57,800 Speaker 2: a half over the Los Angeles Rams. And who likes 588 00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:01,840 Speaker 2: to bet a favorite in any scenario, especially when I've 589 00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,320 Speaker 2: given you all these trends. But here's the thing about 590 00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:08,240 Speaker 2: these trends. Fifty eight percent, sixty one percent, What that 591 00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:10,440 Speaker 2: really means is that, yeah, you're going to have an 592 00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:13,000 Speaker 2: edge if you bet at long term. What I'm trying 593 00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:15,120 Speaker 2: to do here is thread the needle and catch a 594 00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:19,600 Speaker 2: falling knife, where the other forty percent of the time right, 595 00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:23,960 Speaker 2: it doesn't work right right? And so look, I love 596 00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:26,280 Speaker 2: the Rams and we have made so much money on 597 00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:28,320 Speaker 2: the Rams the past couple of years because I do 598 00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:32,160 Speaker 2: think Matthew Stafford is probably the most, if it's possible, 599 00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:35,120 Speaker 2: the most underrated quarterback. He never gets into the conversation 600 00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:37,680 Speaker 2: of top three, top four, and he should. You If 601 00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:40,720 Speaker 2: there was a great video this fall this offseason, a C. J. 602 00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:43,520 Speaker 2: Shaud talking about quarterbacks he likes to watch, it was 603 00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:47,320 Speaker 2: Matthew Stafford. NFL players loving Matthew Stafford. He is a gamer. 604 00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:49,880 Speaker 2: And what he did last year when Cooper Cup was 605 00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:53,440 Speaker 2: out and turned Puka Nakua into an all world receiver. 606 00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:58,040 Speaker 2: He is brilliant and I really want to bet the Rams, 607 00:33:58,480 --> 00:33:59,880 Speaker 2: but here's the problem, and I want to fade the 608 00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:04,520 Speaker 2: life because the variance is so high when you're betting 609 00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:06,720 Speaker 2: on a Dan Campbell team, because of the way he 610 00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:08,960 Speaker 2: goes forward on fourth down, which can always bite you, 611 00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:11,560 Speaker 2: as it did in the NFC title game. And when 612 00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:16,480 Speaker 2: the Niners came back, they are so foundationally good. And 613 00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:18,879 Speaker 2: when I bet, and when a lot of professionals bet, 614 00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:22,000 Speaker 2: they bet from inside out. They look at the offensive line, 615 00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:24,479 Speaker 2: they look at the defensive line. That's where they start. 616 00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:26,080 Speaker 2: They don't start on the edges, they don't start with 617 00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:30,080 Speaker 2: the quarterbacks. They start foundationally. The lines are one of 618 00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:33,200 Speaker 2: a few teams with top five offensive line, top five 619 00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:37,040 Speaker 2: defensive line. Pinasuel on one side. Then you mentioned Aden Hutchinson. 620 00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:40,560 Speaker 2: I bet Ada Hutchinson fourteen to one to lead the 621 00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:43,640 Speaker 2: league in sacks. Everything coming out of camp was how 622 00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:45,959 Speaker 2: this guy has gotten better and better. And last year 623 00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:48,759 Speaker 2: he was dominant no matter what the situation was, no 624 00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:51,400 Speaker 2: matter how often he was being double teams, he consistently 625 00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:54,399 Speaker 2: got pressure on quarterbacks, even if it wasn't always a sack. 626 00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:57,040 Speaker 2: So if you look at those things, I'm like, wait 627 00:34:57,040 --> 00:35:01,880 Speaker 2: a second. Aaron Donald retired offensive line for the Rams 628 00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:09,080 Speaker 2: in trouble. Jared Goff undefeated against the spread to start 629 00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:13,319 Speaker 2: the season in his career, Jared Goff twenty five to 630 00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:17,640 Speaker 2: nine against spread in doors. Jared Goff the most profitable 631 00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:21,120 Speaker 2: quarterback against the spread the past five years. Dan Campbell 632 00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:25,160 Speaker 2: the most profitable coach against the spread the past five years. 633 00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:28,239 Speaker 2: I know, like it's hard to bet on a more 634 00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:31,680 Speaker 2: than a field goal favorite in a game that ended 635 00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:35,480 Speaker 2: as a very short win for the Lions last year 636 00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:38,080 Speaker 2: in the playoffs, I think the Lions have gotten better. 637 00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:42,000 Speaker 2: I think the Rams have stagnated or a little bit less, 638 00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:44,759 Speaker 2: a little bit worse because their talent isn't as good. 639 00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:48,600 Speaker 2: So it hurts, But I'm on the lines. 640 00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:53,759 Speaker 1: Sharper Square, all odds provided by DraftKings. The favorites have 641 00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:58,919 Speaker 1: a one hundred thousand dollars pick them contest, and it's 642 00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:02,640 Speaker 1: free to play, which is sounds like a bad business 643 00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:04,840 Speaker 1: move by you. You should charge people. 644 00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:09,719 Speaker 2: Colin Listen, we're on the Volume podcast network. We want 645 00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:12,239 Speaker 2: to engage as many people as possible and if it's 646 00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:14,879 Speaker 2: going to cost us money. We don't care if we 647 00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:18,640 Speaker 2: look good. You look good. That's what we care about. 648 00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:21,800 Speaker 2: Anybody can play. And here's what's fun. Me and Simon, 649 00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:24,640 Speaker 2: we will make our five picks. We enter the contest. 650 00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:26,759 Speaker 2: We talk about the picks we're going to enter on 651 00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:30,799 Speaker 2: our show. People love to compete against us. So you 652 00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:34,319 Speaker 2: enter five picks every week you can win be part 653 00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:37,239 Speaker 2: of the one hundred thousand dollars prize pool. Favorites Dot 654 00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:40,560 Speaker 2: Actionnetwork dot Com is the sign up and by the way, 655 00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,560 Speaker 2: we give away one thousand a week to the person 656 00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:47,120 Speaker 2: with the best record. So we're giving money away all 657 00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:50,680 Speaker 2: season long in our effort to make the Volume podcast 658 00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:54,200 Speaker 2: Network the biggest podcast network in the world. Go sign up, 659 00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:58,080 Speaker 2: win one hundred brand favorites Dot Action Network dot com. 660 00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:02,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, the Favorites is the absolute best sports gambling pod 661 00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:09,480 Speaker 1: in the country. We love having you guys back and God, 662 00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:12,399 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go buy a jet ski on that Panthers pick. 663 00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:13,600 Speaker 2: I love. 664 00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:14,520 Speaker 1: That's my pick of the week. 665 00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:19,960 Speaker 2: But here's the problem. Here's the problem. It might not 666 00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:25,040 Speaker 2: go our way. And that's okay. It's okay because in 667 00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:27,640 Speaker 2: the long run, we got to play the fundamentals and 668 00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:30,319 Speaker 2: like it might not work this weekend, over the long run, 669 00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:33,279 Speaker 2: it's gonna work out. But man, I am like so 670 00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:37,320 Speaker 2: invested in this Panthers team. I am so nervous about 671 00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:39,840 Speaker 2: this game. I'm nervous about the Lions game. I'm nervous 672 00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:42,200 Speaker 2: about the Jets game. I'm nervous about the Colts game, 673 00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:45,680 Speaker 2: and the Giants game. I'm sick to my stomach. Brother, 674 00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:47,680 Speaker 2: all right, buddy, seasons back. 675 00:37:48,040 --> 00:38:01,120 Speaker 1: It is one of the more interesting games this weekend 676 00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:04,840 Speaker 1: is Colorado and Deon Sanders and all he brings to 677 00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:10,920 Speaker 1: the table at Nebraska. Now, Travis Hunter and Shador Sanders 678 00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:12,960 Speaker 1: for the Buffaloes are the two best players in the game, 679 00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:17,719 Speaker 1: and they alone may be able to carry Colorado to 680 00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:20,840 Speaker 1: the win. But I like Nebraska for a lot of reasons. 681 00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:25,640 Speaker 1: Number one is, if you go to last year, nobody 682 00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:29,839 Speaker 1: lost more close games down the stretch than Nebraska. They 683 00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:33,840 Speaker 1: were close. They needed a couple of transfers, They needed 684 00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:36,600 Speaker 1: to get a little older on the defensive side. It 685 00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:39,200 Speaker 1: didn't matter if it was Iowa, it was Maryland, it 686 00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:41,560 Speaker 1: was Michigan State. They lost by a field goal. It 687 00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:44,000 Speaker 1: felt like every week, and they were shooting themselves in 688 00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:48,720 Speaker 1: the foot with a lot of ugly turnovers. This defense 689 00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:53,200 Speaker 1: now is different. Six seniors, five junior start and that 690 00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:57,520 Speaker 1: matters a lot of starts against the Colorado offense and 691 00:38:57,640 --> 00:39:02,760 Speaker 1: offensive line that I haven't for the last couple of years. Again, 692 00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:06,359 Speaker 1: Colorado's got the two best players in this game, maybe 693 00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:10,759 Speaker 1: the three or four. Best depth experience. I like Nebraska. 694 00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:16,080 Speaker 1: The other thing is that Colorado has by and large 695 00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:21,920 Speaker 1: last three matchups as at one. Nebraska's not overlooking anybody. Also, 696 00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:25,880 Speaker 1: I tend to look at programs. I think there's baby steps. 697 00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:29,320 Speaker 1: I think when you take over a program, first of all, 698 00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:32,000 Speaker 1: the first sign you're doing it right is you're closing 699 00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:36,520 Speaker 1: the gap. Nebraska last year close losses. Generally those kind 700 00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:40,440 Speaker 1: of teams the following year start turning those into close wins, 701 00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:42,799 Speaker 1: and then the following year, if you have the right 702 00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:45,520 Speaker 1: coach and the right players, you have decisive wins. I 703 00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:48,399 Speaker 1: don't think Nebraska is in a decisive win territory yet 704 00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:50,680 Speaker 1: against the better teams on their schedule, but I don't 705 00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:52,880 Speaker 1: think Colorado is one of the better teams on their schedule. 706 00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:57,360 Speaker 1: I like Nebraska by ten points. I think their defense, 707 00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:01,680 Speaker 1: though it won't be a perfect game, a Shadure Sanders. 708 00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:05,640 Speaker 1: He moves well. I really like him. I mean, I 709 00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:09,359 Speaker 1: almost feel like if Shaudure Sanders, if you're gonna judge 710 00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:11,440 Speaker 1: him just on football, he can be the number one 711 00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:14,160 Speaker 1: pick in the draft. His ability to place the ball, 712 00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:17,960 Speaker 1: moving pocket, moving left, moving right, moving forward. He has 713 00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:22,480 Speaker 1: tremendous ball placement, and he's kind of what everybody's looking for. 714 00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:25,160 Speaker 1: He can win in the pocket, he can win off script. 715 00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:27,880 Speaker 1: So I think Colorado is going to score some points 716 00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:31,920 Speaker 1: to be a handful. But I think Matt Ruhle situationally, 717 00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:34,960 Speaker 1: is a better coach than Dion. Dion's a bigger present. 718 00:40:35,160 --> 00:40:38,360 Speaker 1: Dion may be a better recruiter, But I mean Nebraska 719 00:40:38,520 --> 00:40:40,400 Speaker 1: was I looked it up this morning. Top thirty and 720 00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:44,200 Speaker 1: tackles for loss last season, and now this defense six seniors, 721 00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:47,960 Speaker 1: five juniors, is even older. They got that new quarterback, 722 00:40:48,280 --> 00:40:51,680 Speaker 1: Dylan Reyola. They like him. They are more than capable 723 00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:56,480 Speaker 1: at quarterback. He's not Shoudour Sanders, but he's fine Nebraska 724 00:40:56,520 --> 00:41:02,239 Speaker 1: at home, more experienced defense, Matt rule losing close to 725 00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:06,120 Speaker 1: now winning close. I'm gonna take him by about eight 726 00:41:06,160 --> 00:41:10,279 Speaker 1: to ten points here litll thirty three twenty four kind 727 00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:12,880 Speaker 1: of feels like that to me. I like the Huskers. 728 00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:16,520 Speaker 1: All right, the game of the day, it's on Fox. 729 00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:20,600 Speaker 1: Is Texas their first ever meeting in the Big House 730 00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:23,520 Speaker 1: against Michigan. It's remarkable to think about two brands that 731 00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:26,400 Speaker 1: big that have never faced in the big house. Listen, 732 00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:30,480 Speaker 1: I was a Michigan believer all last year. I mean, 733 00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:34,000 Speaker 1: Harbaugh on the sidelines are not They were hammering people. 734 00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:38,560 Speaker 1: But Michigan lost eight of eleven offensive starters, a star quarterback, 735 00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:41,680 Speaker 1: a star receiver, a star back, top offensive lineman, and 736 00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:46,000 Speaker 1: those were also in many instances leaders. So not only 737 00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:49,759 Speaker 1: do you lose Jim Harbaugh, which I think the cultural 738 00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:53,840 Speaker 1: vibe of the toughest physicality will remain even if this 739 00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:57,000 Speaker 1: coach isn't the right coach. My feeling is, I mean 740 00:41:57,040 --> 00:42:00,200 Speaker 1: Mark Helfrich wasn't the perfect fit for Chip Kelly, but 741 00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:02,319 Speaker 1: for a year you couldn't tell the difference. I think 742 00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:06,440 Speaker 1: there's a lot of momentum program momentum for Michigan, but 743 00:42:06,480 --> 00:42:09,200 Speaker 1: they just lost too many leaders and too much firepower 744 00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:11,919 Speaker 1: on offense, and I think they're a team that will 745 00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:16,040 Speaker 1: be able to win a certain way. I think Texas 746 00:42:16,040 --> 00:42:20,040 Speaker 1: can win anyway, shootout close. They're better at quarterback. Now. 747 00:42:20,040 --> 00:42:24,560 Speaker 1: They lost three receivers to the NFL, but it's Texas, 748 00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:27,399 Speaker 1: it's Sark. I don't worry about the offense. I talked 749 00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:29,799 Speaker 1: to Sark this week. He said it's hard for him 750 00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:34,520 Speaker 1: to differentiate in some instances starters from backups with Texas, 751 00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:37,640 Speaker 1: and we tend to rush to a judgment with these 752 00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:41,120 Speaker 1: high profile coaches A Kiffin, A Sark, A Lincoln Riley, 753 00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:45,479 Speaker 1: a Harbaugh, you can't. This stuff takes two and three years, 754 00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:48,680 Speaker 1: even with big brands to get up to speed. So 755 00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:51,200 Speaker 1: you're in the Ohio state class, you're in the Georgia 756 00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:54,640 Speaker 1: and Alabama class. This is the first time I look 757 00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:57,480 Speaker 1: at Texas and think, yeah, they can go toe to 758 00:42:57,480 --> 00:42:59,719 Speaker 1: toe with anybody. I didn't like him on the back 759 00:42:59,840 --> 00:43:03,319 Speaker 1: end last year. Washington exposed that. Michael Pennix exposed that. 760 00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:05,279 Speaker 1: I think Texas has a chance to play for the 761 00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:08,680 Speaker 1: national championship. I think they bring back more experience that 762 00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:12,000 Speaker 1: offensive line for Texas. Now that's some first and second 763 00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:14,960 Speaker 1: round talent. That's a lot of starts. They may have 764 00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:17,800 Speaker 1: some new receivers, a new back. That's a lot of starts. 765 00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:21,319 Speaker 1: And Quinn Ewers from diet to his play on the 766 00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:24,720 Speaker 1: field is a little bit more structured to me last 767 00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:28,000 Speaker 1: year than what I saw initially. Was not a big fan, initially, 768 00:43:28,080 --> 00:43:31,520 Speaker 1: just played to loose to J Cutler. To me, I 769 00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:34,560 Speaker 1: like Texas here now again. I think it's a pretty 770 00:43:34,600 --> 00:43:37,840 Speaker 1: low scoring game. I think Michigan has some top defenders 771 00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:41,680 Speaker 1: are at home. Even good college teams can struggle away 772 00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:44,680 Speaker 1: from home. I looked at this morning. It opened at 773 00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:48,040 Speaker 1: Texas minus four, it's now Texas minus seven. I think 774 00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:51,600 Speaker 1: the Longhorns win. I think it's probably pretty close. But 775 00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:54,719 Speaker 1: I think you'll watch that game and from a more 776 00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:58,520 Speaker 1: dynamic offense to the better quarterback, I think you're going 777 00:43:58,560 --> 00:44:01,400 Speaker 1: to feel like Texas. They may stumble a little early, 778 00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:05,440 Speaker 1: intimidating big house. I think they pull away late a 779 00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:08,600 Speaker 1: little bit like how Michigan beat Ohio State last couple 780 00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:11,759 Speaker 1: of years, physicality leaned on them late third quarter on. 781 00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:14,000 Speaker 1: You're going to feel like the better team, the better roster, 782 00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:17,200 Speaker 1: the better chance in the National Championship is Texas. I 783 00:44:17,280 --> 00:44:23,879 Speaker 1: like the Horns here by about six the volume. Thanks 784 00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:26,719 Speaker 1: so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast, take 785 00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:28,440 Speaker 1: a moment rate and review