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Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and good morning. I'm

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Speaker 1: John Tucker. This Bloomberg Business Clash being brought to you

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Speaker 1: a b R dot org in the pre market of

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Speaker 1: the most active share right now shares the best buy.

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Speaker 1: They are down close to four percent this morning, falling

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Speaker 1: in the pre market after lowering its second quarter earnings forecast.

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Speaker 1: French tax officials rated the Paris offices of Google early today.

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Speaker 1: It's in a probably into possible tax evasion. This according

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Speaker 1: to the Parisian newspaper reporting setting unidentified sources DOCUMENTO futures.

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Speaker 1: They are higher this morning before new home sales data

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Speaker 1: that may show an improving economy. Investors also gauging the

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Speaker 1: prospects for a Federal Reserve rate increase uh next month.

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Speaker 1: That has the dollar higher al right now the year

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Speaker 1: one eleven seventy five down about four tens of percent

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Speaker 1: the end one oh nine sixties seven. That's down about

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Speaker 1: four ten stormally one forty six old nine. We have

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Speaker 1: the two year note yield at point nine zero, the

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Speaker 1: ten year note yield at one point eight four. My

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Speaker 1: next accruede that's turned it round right now, up about

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Speaker 1: the tenth cents of arrel like eight nineteen spot girl

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Speaker 1: down seven forty five and at twelve forty one seventy seven.

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Speaker 1: And we check the markets for you every fifteen minutes

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Speaker 1: during the trading day right here on Bloomberg Radio, surveillance

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Speaker 1: continues with Tom Keene and Mike McKee, John Tucker, thank

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Speaker 1: you very much. Well, it is time for us to

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Speaker 1: put on our overalls and get down in the mud.

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Speaker 1: That's when it comes down to. It appears now with

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Speaker 1: a presidential campaign, Chuck Cod unfortunately has to live in

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Speaker 1: the mud day ay covering politics for NBC with the

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Speaker 1: MSNBC program and to meet the press, of course, which

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Speaker 1: he hosts every Sunday, and you can hear here on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio eleven at three o'clock. Chuck Um, it's almost

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Speaker 1: impossible to think things are going to get worse than

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Speaker 1: they are. But then after the last couple of days. Uh,

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump air's an puts out an Instagram ad with

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Speaker 1: the voices of women whom he claims have had affairs

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Speaker 1: with Bill Clinton and then brings up Vince Foster. Uh.

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Speaker 1: This is really it's it's amazingly ugly. It is um.

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Speaker 1: But you know, if you follow the primary campaign, it

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Speaker 1: was pretty obvious that Trump would do this. He said

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Speaker 1: he was gonna he sort of implied that he would

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Speaker 1: do it. He tested it out once. Uh, and here

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Speaker 1: we are, and so I think that, yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: this is gonna be um. This is going to be

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Speaker 1: something that that we see daily. Especially but Trump, he

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Speaker 1: said to himself, he called himself a counterpuncher. But what

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Speaker 1: he really is is if he if he know he

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Speaker 1: has a weakness, that he tries to share the weakness

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Speaker 1: with an opponent, pure and simple. And I think he

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Speaker 1: knows he's got a weakness of women. So he finkure's okay,

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Speaker 1: how can I at least make this more complicated with her? Well,

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Speaker 1: I'll bring up Booklin stuff and at least make her

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Speaker 1: life miserable about it, because at a minimum, what does

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Speaker 1: it do. It makes it a little harder for them,

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Speaker 1: perhaps to hit me on how I treat women, and

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Speaker 1: I think that that in a minimumy neutralizes that's what

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Speaker 1: he thinks. I wonder if I mean, and we can

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Speaker 1: talk in a moment about you know, the realities of

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Speaker 1: the polls and and the campaign, which are far different

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Speaker 1: from the headlines that people are seeing these days. But

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Speaker 1: I wonder if, if, if, if this campaign will play

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Speaker 1: out as a question of who wins cable TV. Donald Trump,

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Speaker 1: you know, puts out an outrageous comment and then it

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Speaker 1: basically constantly forces Hillary to respond. Well, and I think

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Speaker 1: that that's gonna be um, that's gonna be the BA

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Speaker 1: at the Clint camp has to figure out how to

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Speaker 1: do respondent house and be ignore. You can't always ignore

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Speaker 1: and you can't always respond. You have to pick your

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Speaker 1: spots on the front. On the second, it's interesting, I

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Speaker 1: do think as far as you say who wins cable

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Speaker 1: especially what you're saying is who dominates the new cycle

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Speaker 1: and any given day. What's been interesting about that strategy

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Speaker 1: is that both McCain and Romney had new cycle strategies.

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Speaker 1: Now they weren't as they weren't playing in the dirties

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Speaker 1: as perhaps Trump met. But I could argue that Romney

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Speaker 1: won one of new scions against Obama. Then Obama didn't

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Speaker 1: did it with McCain. Um. But sometimes the demographics are

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Speaker 1: stubborn things. And I think that that's ultimately what you know,

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Speaker 1: that's what Trump's up against, Chuck. I know you've got

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Speaker 1: your table at the Laffi at the Wonderful restaurant and

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Speaker 1: the Hey Adams just the left of the fireplace. But

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Speaker 1: if you were to sit there this morning, you know,

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Speaker 1: when you're leisurely four our day, Chuck, if you were

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Speaker 1: to sit there this morning in Washington and and see

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Speaker 1: what you and Mike have been discussing, these ads and

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Speaker 1: the other things. How does Mr Trump attract and retain

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Speaker 1: traditional Republicans? Are they repelled by this stuff? Or is

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Speaker 1: this just the new politics that I think he is.

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Speaker 1: He is thinking that you know, brute force works, uh,

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Speaker 1: and that uh, the enemy of my enemy is my president.

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Speaker 1: And I think that's what he's counting on, that there

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Speaker 1: isn't enough concern about Clinton, enough concern about the Supreme

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Speaker 1: Court that you know they'll be Um, do you acceptance

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Speaker 1: within the church? Are ferience? Did you see it so far?

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Speaker 1: We see it? I think you're seeing more and more

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Speaker 1: Republicans come on board. The ones that are not with

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Speaker 1: Trump now probably won't be and there and there are

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Speaker 1: folks that that UM may not, may not vote formed.

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Speaker 1: But is it going to have that much of an impact.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. You know. Maybe Look here's where having

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Speaker 1: a real impact on him is financially. I have no idea.

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Speaker 1: And to this, I had no idea how he's going

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Speaker 1: to keep up even fifty cents on the dollar to Clinton.

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Speaker 1: I don't because I think it's the most offended group

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Speaker 1: of Republicans are the donors, and they're the ones so

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Speaker 1: they're fascinated by this. Do they sit out or do

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Speaker 1: they support the Secretary of State? No? I think they

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Speaker 1: support uh. Pat two men is running for the US

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Speaker 1: to Republican money to the Senate Pennsylvania, Kelly is running

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Speaker 1: In the answer, I think that's what they do. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And you know they write and checks to the party

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Speaker 1: UM as long as it helps the Senate candidates. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And I think that's what I think, that's how they

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Speaker 1: and justify it to themselves. They won't help Clinton, but

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Speaker 1: they're not gonna help Trump either. And I'll just try

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Speaker 1: to help Republicans stand the valley Well, that gets to

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Speaker 1: the heart of the real issue at the moment, and

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Speaker 1: that is the campaign that is playing out in headlines

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Speaker 1: and on cable TV is not the actual state of

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Speaker 1: the campaign. Um. The polls at this point notoriously inaccurate

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Speaker 1: for a lot of reasons. Trump doesn't have a gun.

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Speaker 1: I tend to disagree with that. Yeah, let's argue that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I know, if you look at the history that the

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Speaker 1: where the general election ends up and where it begins

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Speaker 1: in many taps, that doesn't actually change that much. You know,

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Speaker 1: Obama essentially started out uh with Elita McCain. There was

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Speaker 1: one or two poles at Pat McCain up, but most

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Speaker 1: of the polling didn't. Ditto with Romney. Uh, And here

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Speaker 1: we are with Trump. There's really only one too. You know,

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Speaker 1: most of the polls have Clinton up narrowly. There's a few,

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Speaker 1: there's one or two that are reputable. There's some non

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Speaker 1: reputable to have Trump ahead, but there's wanted to that

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Speaker 1: are reputable that have Trump narrowly ahead. Um. But frankly,

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Speaker 1: it looks a lot like uh, looks a lot like

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Speaker 1: main Right now, I was gonna argue with you, but

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to argue with you because you kind

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Speaker 1: of went where I was going in the sense that

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Speaker 1: those polls that show Trump ahead. I mean, if you

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Speaker 1: if you consider reasons why that may be that Hillary

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Speaker 1: hasn't you know, consolidated Democrats, right, and he is, he

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Speaker 1: has gotten farther along televiate Republicans, And if you assume

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Speaker 1: the Sanders voters are coming over to her, um, then

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Speaker 1: she is anywhere from a three to seven point lead.

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Speaker 1: And every single poll, including the ones that had come ahad.

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Speaker 1: And when you when you step back, we don't vote nationally.

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Speaker 1: We vote through the electoral college. And if you look

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Speaker 1: at the state by state polls at this point, I

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Speaker 1: think predict wise, latest numbers were Democrat three thirty two

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Speaker 1: and the Republican two hundred four. So it doesn't manage

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Speaker 1: to be a fi million number of people. Thirty two

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Speaker 1: or four was the essentially the Well then, Chucks, do

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Speaker 1: you agree with the migration over the last X number

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Speaker 1: of weeks from clinton landslide to actually a legitimate race?

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Speaker 1: I mean, at least can that constructively? B Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: mean I I do, because I think we are we

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Speaker 1: had to remember, we are pretty polarized, and there was

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Speaker 1: a high floor or low ceilings for both parties, right,

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Speaker 1: nobody can really get over if three what Obama did

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Speaker 1: and oh eight may look back on twenty years from

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Speaker 1: that say that was truly a landslide to win my

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Speaker 1: six percentage point you know, before that the largest one

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Speaker 1: recently had been Clinton over Dole nine, you know, a

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Speaker 1: little little less of nine percentage points um. And so

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Speaker 1: it's uh, you know, I can't imagine this being outside

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Speaker 1: the three or five range at this point without him

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Speaker 1: doing something to collapse. Interesting, Chuck to thank you so much,

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Speaker 1: extremely valuable. He is the moderator of Meet the prec

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Speaker 1: Chuck Todd on MSNBC. See him on NBC Sunday mornings.

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Speaker 1: You can hear my Bloomberg Radio Sunday afternoons. Were thrilled

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Speaker 1: with our Sunday line up, Uh, to give you perspective

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Speaker 1: on the linkage of economics and what we do here

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Speaker 1: into a great way to spend your days because all

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Speaker 1: day Sunday you can catch up with the Sunday shows

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Speaker 1: and you don't have to sit in front of your television.

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Speaker 1: You can be out and about and do anythings I

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Speaker 1: I looked at. Predict Wise, they do not only do

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Speaker 1: presidential politics, Mike, but they also look at the two

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Speaker 1: thousand and fifteen sixteen NHL Championship as they call it,

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Speaker 1: and the Lightnings, the thunder and Lightnings of Tampa Bay

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Speaker 1: doing pretty well the predict wise pole. Yeah, the Penguins

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Speaker 1: have decline. You know, I would almost put less on

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Speaker 1: a sports that like that, politics on politics, because the

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Speaker 1: things don't change much in politics, but you know, in

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Speaker 1: sports there's injuries and things like that. So on a

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Speaker 1: day to day basis, they're probably say to all of

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Speaker 1: our listeners worldwide and across this nation, Uh, Mike and I,

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Speaker 1: without giving any political angle. Dazzled by the political discourse

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Speaker 1: of the last two weeks, were dazzled by another hour

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Speaker 1: of Bloomberg's surveillance. Next