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Speaker 1: Look, don't let the playoff committee and the rankings and

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Speaker 1: conference championship weekend and hirings and firings and transfer portal

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Speaker 1: and all that. Don't let that distract you from the

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Speaker 1: biggest news in this sport today. Guys, Bobby Patrino's back

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Speaker 1: at Arkansas. I know a lot of you were stunned

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Speaker 1: because you don't stay glued to the internet twenty four

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Speaker 1: to seven.

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Speaker 2: You've been living.

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Speaker 1: Lives, you're getting off work, you're feeding your kids. I'm

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Speaker 1: not messing with you. It's not April. Bobby Petrino's headed

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Speaker 1: back to Arkansas. So vroom vroom to us. All welcome in.

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Speaker 2: Late Kick is Live.

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Speaker 1: It is Tuesday night, November twenty eighth, the year of

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Speaker 1: our lower twenty twenty three, jam packed Hyatapa suddenly jubilant,

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Speaker 1: but still a little unsettled downtown Nashville, Tennessee. Jubilant because

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Speaker 1: I always thought somehow, some way Petrino in Arkansas would

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Speaker 1: find their way back to each other, just him coming

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Speaker 1: in as a visiting head coach.

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Speaker 2: This true story.

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Speaker 1: By the way, this is actually happening. Hawksports dot Com

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Speaker 1: if you want the info. And secondly, we're unsettled because well, frankly,

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Speaker 1: there's still a lot to be decided this upcoming weekend.

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Speaker 1: I got playoff rankings thoughts, first time I've done that

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Speaker 1: all year on the show.

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Speaker 2: I don't know how you guys watched that.

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Speaker 1: You know what? Be that as it may. I will

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Speaker 1: talk about it tonight. I got every conference championship game

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Speaker 1: at least in the Power five to predict tonight. I

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Speaker 1: do have a JP poll for you, because there's serious

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Speaker 1: movement in the jpeople. Even at this late eleventh hour,

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Speaker 1: there's movement, and Transfer Portal is already getting worked up.

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Speaker 1: Is about to be really, really crazy. So I've got

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Speaker 1: a ton there's probably not gonna be an hour and

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Speaker 1: a half show like it was the other night, and

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Speaker 1: blessed Colin and Jesse for that, Bradley a little bit too.

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Speaker 1: But it is going to be a lengthy show because

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Speaker 1: we are jam packed and we're watching a lot of

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Speaker 1: things in the coaching world that haven't happened, but are,

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Speaker 1: you know, on the precipice of happening.

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Speaker 2: So I've actually got.

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Speaker 1: The telep turned on in the studio just in case

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Speaker 1: news breaks. We don't even normally turn the prompter on.

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Speaker 1: They're watching us and making Georgia Bend, Oregon, Wichita Falls, Texas, Huntsville, Alabama.

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Speaker 1: I got a major announcement to make right here and

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Speaker 1: right now, to whom's too much is given, much is expected.

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Speaker 1: We know this, and a lot's given to us. We

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Speaker 1: have great people who we work with. We've got great

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Speaker 1: folks who allow us to do what we want to do.

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Speaker 1: We go to any game we want to. And so

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Speaker 1: I was sitting there thinking to myself, once upon a

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Speaker 1: Saturday tour is headed to Atlanta Saturday for the SEC

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Speaker 1: championship game. But is that really the best we can do?

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Speaker 1: And the answer was no. I woke up the next

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Speaker 1: morning and I didn't like the guy looking back at

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Speaker 1: me in the mirror.

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Speaker 2: Because we got a perfectly good PAC.

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Speaker 1: Twelve Championship game happening in Las Vegas, Nevada, Friday night.

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Speaker 1: We got a front row seat to it if we want.

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Speaker 1: We got sideline passes if we want them, and so

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Speaker 1: we're taking them. And so I'm going to head to

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Speaker 1: Las Vegas. This is official. Not only is Patrino headed Darkansas,

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Speaker 1: I'm headed to Las Vegas. Certainly a sentence I never

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Speaker 1: thought would come out of my mouth. A decade ago.

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Speaker 1: But we're going to Las Vegas for the PAC twelve

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Speaker 1: championship game Friday night, and then we will just jet

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Speaker 1: right back to Atlanta overnight and we will have a

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Speaker 1: ton of coverage over on CBS and CBS Sports HQ

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Speaker 1: leading up to that game and then following the game.

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Speaker 2: And you understand.

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Speaker 1: What that's all about. But we haven't done this in

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Speaker 1: the past. We've just parked ourselves at one conference title game.

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Speaker 1: Am I worried? Absolutely not. I'm thrilled. I'm excited. So

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Speaker 1: that's coming this weekend. PAC twelfth paid one last ride.

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Speaker 1: I will be the one to turn the lights out

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Speaker 1: on that conference nobody else. Let's dive into this thing tonight.

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Speaker 1: I don't I don't ever talk about the playoff rankings.

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Speaker 1: I don't even half the time know what the resumes are.

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Speaker 1: You'd be shocked to know that. I know, but I

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Speaker 1: don't ever even pay attention to it until about the

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Speaker 1: second to last week of the year or the what

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Speaker 1: is it, the penultimate week. Yeah, So that's kind of

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Speaker 1: what we just came out of. And then we got

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Speaker 1: conference championship games this Saturday. So Colin, here's your endpoint

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Speaker 1: for the segment. I just said here moments ago, and

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Speaker 1: watch the playoff rankings get released as you're listening live.

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Speaker 1: It is Tuesday night, and I don't ever watch it,

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Speaker 1: and so I've been able to see bits and pieces

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Speaker 1: of it, but I've never watched it in totality. I

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Speaker 1: gotta be real with you, I don't know how you

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Speaker 1: guys stomach the explanations or like thereof that are given

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Speaker 1: by that committee chair.

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Speaker 2: Dude's name is Boo.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure he's great to hang out with in real life,

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Speaker 1: but there is no logic. There is no connectivity between

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Speaker 1: what I'm told the criteria is slash are for the rankings,

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Speaker 1: and what comes out of his mouth. So you either

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Speaker 1: got one of two things. You either got a guy

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Speaker 1: who doesn't know what's going on, and I don't think

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Speaker 1: that's the case, or the second part is you've got

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Speaker 1: someone who has very set and defined criteria and they're

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Speaker 1: figuring it out or computers are figuring it out for

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Speaker 1: them in that big room down in Grapevine, Texas, and

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Speaker 1: they just march out there and shoot filler out of

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Speaker 1: their mouths, and whatever happens will end up happening. And

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Speaker 1: it really just reaffirms to me why I never watched

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Speaker 1: that until the very end. So what's gonna happen here?

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Speaker 1: I think what's gonna happen is we will have multiple

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Speaker 1: undefeated teams fall this weekend. Spoiler alert, because we're predicting

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Speaker 1: the games later in the show. What do we have

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Speaker 1: right now? We've got Michigan undefeated, probably not gonna be

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Speaker 1: one of them. We got Georgia undefeated, we got FSU unefeated,

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Speaker 1: we got Washington undefeated. Odds are very strong. At least

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Speaker 1: one of them's going down. I think more than one

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Speaker 1: undefeated is going down, as I will talk about later

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Speaker 1: in the show. So I do believe we will get

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Speaker 1: some chaos. And then the natural follow up questions are

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Speaker 1: will who gets slotted where? If Georgia loses, are they out?

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Speaker 2: Is a debate that it's.

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Speaker 1: Pretty heavily contested on the old social channels right now.

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Speaker 1: If Alabama does beat Georgia, are they in? If Oregon wins,

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Speaker 1: are they automatically in? If Florida State wins, are they

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Speaker 1: automatically in? So I'm not gonna spend a lot of

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Speaker 1: time on this, but I will tell you there is

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Speaker 1: no substitute. There is no substitute for actually watching conference

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Speaker 1: championship Saturday. What I mean by that is we're watching

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Speaker 1: folks waste a lot of precious oxygen right now debating hypotheticals.

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Speaker 1: What if this happens, then that happens, then what happens

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Speaker 1: to so and so? And the thing about it is,

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Speaker 1: it's all fun and it looks good on graphics, and

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Speaker 1: you can sketch it out on the back of a

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Speaker 1: pizza box. But you know as well as I do,

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Speaker 1: when you watch football games happen, funny things can pop

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Speaker 1: into your mind. Let me just paint you a little picture.

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Speaker 1: Let's just say some chaos does start to unfold this Saturday.

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Speaker 1: Let's say, for example, Michigan wins as most people expect

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Speaker 1: they will. Let's say Oregon wins Friday night, so they'll

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Speaker 1: win a hard fought game against Washington. They win by

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Speaker 1: ten points. The spread's nine and a half. Let's say

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Speaker 1: they win by ten points. All right, Let's say a

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Speaker 1: Florida State goes down, so you get your upset there.

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Speaker 1: That's not out of the realm of possibility. The spread

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Speaker 1: is two and a half right now on that game

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Speaker 1: at FanDuel. But let's say that Alabama beat Georgia, we'll

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Speaker 1: say the upset does happen in the SEC title game

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Speaker 1: and Texas wins the Big Twelve. So basically, a lot

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Speaker 1: of people have told you, well, if that happens, Michigan's in,

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Speaker 1: and if that happens, Texas is in.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree so far.

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Speaker 1: And if that happens, we're gonna have to put Oregon in, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think so.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: But I'm sitting here asking you, what if that SEC

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Speaker 1: Championship game, instead of just playing out in the hypothetical

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Speaker 1: world like you've suggested, what if it's some jarring result,

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Speaker 1: What if it's like thirty four to thirteen Alabama. No

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Speaker 1: one has considered that because it's really really far over here,

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Speaker 1: close to being out of the realm of possibility, but

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Speaker 1: not totally. What would happen is it would jar you.

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Speaker 1: It would totally hit the reset button. It would be

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Speaker 1: like taking the etcha sketch and moving from left to right.

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Speaker 1: It erases everything you sketched on that hypothetical pizza box.

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Speaker 1: And you would say, they just beat Georgia handily, they

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Speaker 1: beat my number one team handedly, I can't leave them out.

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Speaker 1: And the same people saying that in many cases would

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Speaker 1: have been saying the morning of Conference Championship Saturday, well,

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Speaker 1: Oregon won last night, so they're in Bama.

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Speaker 2: Will not win ahead to head over.

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Speaker 1: Georgia tonight or out or Oregon tonight, even if they

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Speaker 1: take down Georgia. And my point is, I don't ever

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Speaker 1: do the hypothetical thing a whole lot until I see

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Speaker 1: the games, in which case it's no longer hypothetical.

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Speaker 2: Because I remember twenty fourteen.

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Speaker 1: Twenty fourteen, I was at the SEC title game, but

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Speaker 1: that wasn't the biggest point of contention that night. That

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Speaker 1: was when Ohio State was a short underdog against Wisconsin

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Speaker 1: in the Big Ten title game and they were on

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Speaker 1: the outside looking in, and it was a widely held

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Speaker 1: consensus that there just isn't a path for Ohio State.

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Speaker 1: Then they won against Wisconsin, but that's not it. They

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Speaker 1: won fifty nine to nothing against Wisconsin, and what happened

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Speaker 1: was everybody's etch sketch got wiped clean. Everything you thought,

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Speaker 1: every hypothetical you had drawn out, it got clean. And

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Speaker 1: over the span of about two hours, the sentiment went

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Speaker 1: from Ohio State's not even in regardless of whether they

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Speaker 1: win or lose, to we literally can't keep this team out.

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Speaker 1: How can you keep that team out? And so there

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Speaker 1: is one thing that I'm very steadfast in. I think

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Speaker 1: that FSU's in if they win. I'm not here in

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Speaker 1: that argument. I'm not hearing the conversation of well, we

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Speaker 1: don't think they'd be one of the four best teams.

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Speaker 2: I just am not interested in that.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they are either, Guys, I don't think

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Speaker 1: they'd be one of the four best teams either. But

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Speaker 1: that's why I wish that committee a long time ago

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Speaker 1: would have changed the wording, because we're not looking simply

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Speaker 1: for the four best teams. That's not what that tournament's about.

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Speaker 1: It's blending best and most deserving. And Florida State would

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Speaker 1: be a point spread underdog to about ten other teams

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Speaker 1: even if they win Saturday, but they belong in that

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Speaker 1: playoff because if you're trying to look for best, you

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Speaker 1: might as well let Las Vegas see the tournament. And honestly,

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Speaker 1: you don't need to play a lot of these games

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Speaker 1: because the outcomes on the field aren't gonna matter, because

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Speaker 1: that's how you get best. Like Georgia could lose two games,

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Speaker 1: they could play twice Saturday and lose both games, they

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Speaker 1: would never fall out of Las Vegas as top four?

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Speaker 1: So like, what are we talking about? And I've had

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Speaker 1: that debate a lot, and I'm not gonna have it

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Speaker 1: again tonight.

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Speaker 2: Florida State's en.

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Speaker 1: I don't really I don't really find much value in

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Speaker 1: debating that. But the resume reset, that's really what I'm

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Speaker 1: interested in. You know, because I was just doing an

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Speaker 1: HQ hit earlier before I came on air to do

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Speaker 1: our show, and I was listening to, you know, some

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Speaker 1: of the voiceovers being done in break and I was

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Speaker 1: listening to them talk about the PAC twelve, and you know,

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Speaker 1: one of the voiceovers was indicating that, hey, the PAC

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Speaker 1: twelve looks like they're going to have a representative one

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Speaker 1: way or the other. And I get that if Washington wins,

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Speaker 1: they're in. If Oregon wins, are they guaranteed to be in?

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Speaker 1: The logic tells you yes, because right now they're ranked

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Speaker 1: ahead of Texas in Alabama, and so you figure, hey, man,

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Speaker 1: even if Bama and Texas and oregonall win, they're certainly

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Speaker 1: not going to jump Oregon, are they. Well that's where

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Speaker 1: I wonder about the resume reset thing. You know, first, off.

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Speaker 1: I wonder what is the value of having a win

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Speaker 1: against Number one? You know, Alabama's the only one who

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Speaker 1: has a shot to say that Number two. I wonder

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Speaker 1: how wide the gap is. You know, I was a

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Speaker 1: fan of the idea that that committee should have just

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Speaker 1: put Oregon, Texas, and Bama in a three way tie

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Speaker 1: at fifth And you say, Josh, they can't do that.

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Speaker 1: Who says they make up the rules as they go. Anyway,

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Speaker 1: I would have put Ohio State right where they are,

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Speaker 1: and I would have put Texas, Bama, and Oregon in

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Speaker 1: no order behind them, because that would indicate, hey, they're

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Speaker 1: dead even no one. No one's jumping anyone. They're starting

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Speaker 1: from the same point. And you know what if if

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Speaker 1: Bama loses, it's a moot point. If Texas and Oregon

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Speaker 1: have to have this head to head, then you know what,

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Speaker 1: it's probably going to come down to how they looked

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Speaker 1: last Saturday, and then we put resumes next to each other.

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Speaker 1: I don't get the resume thing because I'm looking at

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Speaker 1: them right now, and you guys are more schooled on

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Speaker 1: this than I am. Because I really do not immerse

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Speaker 1: myself in this until the last week.

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Speaker 2: I swear to you.

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Speaker 1: I dove into the resumes for the first time seriously

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Speaker 1: last night, and I got what a lot of you

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Speaker 1: have been arguing about.

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Speaker 2: I haven't bothered with it.

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Speaker 1: Until now because I thought upsets would happen and it

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Speaker 1: would clear it up.

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Speaker 2: But it hasn't. They haven't.

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Speaker 1: So I dove into the resumes and I looked, and

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Speaker 1: I wondered. As much respect as I got for Oregon

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Speaker 1: I got. I got them number two in the JP pole.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to show you later tonight. So I got

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Speaker 1: immense amounts of respect for Oregon. But independent of how

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Speaker 1: good the team is, I was looking at the resumes.

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Speaker 1: Orgon should be behind Texas and Alabama right now. At

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Speaker 1: least that's what it looked like to me, based on resumes,

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Speaker 1: based on you know, the criteria that they claim to value.

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Speaker 1: So I have no clue how to make sense of that.

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Speaker 1: I get it, though I'd heard you guys arguing about

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Speaker 1: that and I did not get it.

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Speaker 2: And then I took a look for myself, and I

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Speaker 2: get it.

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Speaker 1: So anyway, will that hold firm or you know what,

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Speaker 1: if Oregon wins Friday night and we'll be there, We'll

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Speaker 1: be on the sideline for that game, But then we'll

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Speaker 1: also be on the sideline Saturday for Alabama Georgia. And

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Speaker 1: what if an outcome happens that you don't think is possible.

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Speaker 1: What if BAMA just wins by twenty or something like that.

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Speaker 1: It's crazy, but it's not impossible. Then all of a

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Speaker 1: sudden you'd rethink everything you thought you knew about how

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Speaker 1: that head to head would be handled.

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 1: Even though we have what one weekend left, we got

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Speaker 1: a lot that's still to be determined. I'm happy to

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Speaker 1: have you guys tuned in live. If you are, make

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Speaker 1: sure you subscribe to the channel or the podcast as

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Speaker 1: you're listening or watching. Now, it's Tuesday nights, so we

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Speaker 1: predict games here on Tuesday nights. If you're not familiar

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Speaker 1: with the format here, you picked a great time to

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Speaker 1: joins the last week of the college football season until

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Speaker 1: we get to bowl season. But you know what, it

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Speaker 1: doesn't matter because we're not seasonal. We don't even say the.

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Speaker 2: Word off season.

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Speaker 1: We don't even say it out loud. That's how little

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Speaker 1: we believe in that as a concept. And so we're

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Speaker 1: here year round. You might as well subscribe and get

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Speaker 1: comfortable and keep showing up every week SEC Championship Saturday,

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Speaker 1: four o'clock Eastern Standard Time, Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia.

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Speaker 1: We will be there the once upon a Saturday tour

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Speaker 1: is headed down to Atlanta, and it is the premier

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Speaker 1: matchup in the Southeastern Conference right now. I think it's

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Speaker 1: the premier matchup in college football right now. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: say something to you, and it's gonna be debatable, but

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna say it anyway. I have seen every one

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Speaker 1: of these teams in person this year. I've seen many

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Speaker 1: of them two times. I've seen Ohio State three times.

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Speaker 1: If you give them a chance to get healthy, in

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Speaker 1: other words, if they got into the playoff, any of

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Speaker 1: these teams get in the playoff and you give them

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Speaker 1: a chance to get healthy, you're looking at the two

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Speaker 1: most dangerous teams in the country.

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Speaker 2: Right here.

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Speaker 1: You may very well be looking at a national championship game.

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Speaker 1: It just so happens it has an SEC Championship sticker

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Speaker 1: on it. So let's break it down. The odds presented

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Speaker 1: by FanDuel on this game right now Georgia minus six

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Speaker 1: and a half. That numbers moved a little bit from

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Speaker 1: the other day. It is the tenth straight SEC Championship

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Speaker 1: game featuring at least one of these teams. Saban's four

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Speaker 1: and one against Kirby, Bama against Georgia three to zero

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Speaker 1: in the SEC Championship game a couple of years ago.

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Speaker 1: Georgia gets another shot at him in Indianapolis. Different result.

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Speaker 1: Georgia wins one of two back to back national championships

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Speaker 1: that go on to win.

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Speaker 2: These are big game programs.

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Speaker 1: I know the margin of victory for Georgia what't exactly

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Speaker 1: huge over Georgia Tech last week. I think if you

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Speaker 1: understood what was going on, the outcome makes perfect sense.

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Speaker 1: Bama probably should have lost against Auburn last week, but

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Speaker 1: they didn't.

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Speaker 2: They won.

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Speaker 1: My point in going back to those games is nothing

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Speaker 1: that happened last week will have any bearing on this Saturday.

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Speaker 1: Could not care less. I am tearing the rearview mirror

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Speaker 1: off of this car. These are big game programs. Georgia

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Speaker 1: is built to face Alabama. Bama is built to face Georgia.

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Speaker 1: The staffs are intimately familiar with each other. They recruit

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Speaker 1: against each other all year long. In Athens. They think

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Speaker 1: there is one main challenger to themselves every year and

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Speaker 1: in Tuscaloosa. Whether they'll admit it or not, they think

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Speaker 1: there is one challenger to themselves every year, and they

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Speaker 1: reside right across the river from each other. I think

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Speaker 1: my biggest concern for Georgia in this game is Carson Beck,

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Speaker 1: as good as he's been, will face the front that

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Speaker 1: stands the best shot of putting pressure on him. It's

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Speaker 1: the best group of pass rushers and probably the most

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Speaker 1: talent in the secondary of any team they face this year.

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Speaker 1: Now I'm looking at him make some throws that are

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Speaker 1: going to be caught, no matter or who he's throwing

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Speaker 1: them against. And so if Carson Beck's on, We've seen

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Speaker 1: in the past against both a Kirby defense and a

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Speaker 1: Saban defense.

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Speaker 2: If you've got a hot quarterback.

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Speaker 1: And you got receivers running precision routes and you got

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Speaker 1: guys making fifty to fifty balls turn into seventy thirty balls,

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Speaker 1: there's no defense for that. So if you promise me

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Speaker 1: Carson Beck's having the game of his life Saturday, you

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Speaker 1: forget what I just said. George is gonna win the game.

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Speaker 1: And that's a really short preview, but it plays like

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Speaker 1: a human being. Then Alabama can put some heat on

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Speaker 1: you and Alabama can contest the ball in the air,

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Speaker 1: specifically one and three on the outside. Caleb Downs was

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Speaker 1: a guy that Alabama got from the state of Georgia

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Speaker 1: that plays safety for Bama, that could very well be

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Speaker 1: an impact player in this game. And the other part

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Speaker 1: of that, as much as I'm talking about maybe Carson

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Speaker 1: Beck having to work under a little more dress than

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Speaker 1: he normally does, is I think Alabama still got vulnerability

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Speaker 1: on their offensive line when it comes to being exposed

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Speaker 1: by high end edge pressure and edge rush types. But

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Speaker 1: Georgia doesn't have them, and so one of the glaring

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Speaker 1: vulnerabilities you could expose with Alabama, I'm not sure Georgia

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Speaker 1: possesses the ability to do. And I'm talking about Procter

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Speaker 1: over on the left side. If Georgia had Dallas Turner,

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Speaker 1: in other words, and I had to watch fifteen versus

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Speaker 1: seventy four, I believe is his number all day, that

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Speaker 1: is a bad proposition for Alabama. As it turns out,

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Speaker 1: Procter only has to face that in practice in tusc

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Speaker 1: and so absent the ability to harass Jalen Milroe. You

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Speaker 1: give him a little more time to throw and he

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Speaker 1: can escape the pocket and re establish the pocket.

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Speaker 2: You do two things.

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Speaker 1: You open yourself up potentially for those explosive down the

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Speaker 1: field plays. And I almost think, if I'm a Georgia fan,

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Speaker 1: I can see they're going to hit a couple of those,

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Speaker 1: and I can see Milroe's gonna run. I hope he

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Speaker 1: runs underneath, you know. I hope we keep that stuff

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Speaker 1: between the twenties and we lock down in the red zone.

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Speaker 1: I'll talk about that in a second, but it opens

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Speaker 1: you up more to that. Okay, So if I'm looking

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Speaker 1: from the Georgia perspective, those two things concern me the most.

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Speaker 1: But I got concerns for Alabama here too. If I'm Alabama,

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Speaker 1: my biggest concern is I'm not healthy on my defensive front.

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Speaker 1: And this is about the last team I want to

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Speaker 1: face in the country if I don't have my big

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Speaker 1: bodies anywhere close to one hundred percent.

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Speaker 2: Right now, Georgia is thirteenth in.

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Speaker 1: The country in rush yards per play this year, and

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Speaker 1: my biggest nightmare for Alabama is watching a bunch of

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Speaker 1: these drives start off and it's methodical, and maybe there

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Speaker 1: aren't explosive plays, but they just keep moving the chains

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Speaker 1: and they keep leaning, and they use that veteran, huge

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Speaker 1: offensive line they got at Georgia.

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Speaker 2: To just keep leaning on me.

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Speaker 1: You know the feeling, You know the feeling when you

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Speaker 1: sit there and you tense up on a bunch of

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Speaker 1: third and twos or fourth and ones and the other

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Speaker 1: team just just keeps leaning. They fall forward, they get

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Speaker 1: a first down, chains move another two minutes, forty five

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Speaker 1: seconds comes off the clock. George's got the ability to

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Speaker 1: do that against a healthy Alabama. They especially have the

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Speaker 1: ability to do that against an Alabama that may be

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Speaker 1: a little bit less than full strength. And they got

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Speaker 1: balance offensively too. So as much as you sit there

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Speaker 1: and think to yourself, we just got to sell out here, man,

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Speaker 1: We've got to sell out against the run. We can't

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Speaker 1: let them continue to do this. Well, they got an

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Speaker 1: assassinate quarterback right now that can make you pay for it.

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Speaker 1: And if Maconkey and Bowers are healthy, and I assume

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Speaker 1: they've been building towards being healthy for this game. Hey,

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Speaker 1: I heard Chase Goode and Saban's press conference the other day.

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Speaker 1: Made a good point in his question those two haven't

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Speaker 1: been on the field at the same time.

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Speaker 2: A whole heck of a lot this year.

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Speaker 1: So if Georgia gets back and Maconkie on the field

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Speaker 1: same time, that's a unique challenge. And my point there

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Speaker 1: is they're balanced enough on offense and they are veteran,

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Speaker 1: and they don't they don't beat themselves to the point

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Speaker 1: where if they find out, hey, we can just methodically

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Speaker 1: move down the field on them.

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Speaker 2: We don't need to do anything overly special. They will

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Speaker 2: they will.

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Speaker 1: That's a big play absence of big plays, if not need,

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Speaker 1: it is in and of itself a big play. There's

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Speaker 1: a third down edge here for Georgia. Offensively, there's second

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Speaker 1: in the country. Bama's defense is twenty six. Not a

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Speaker 1: glaring edge, but it's an edge. Georgia's defense second in

435
00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:45,000
Speaker 1: the country on third down. Bama's offense is twelve. So

436
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,240
Speaker 1: you know those are strength on strength propositions. It's just

437
00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:51,480
Speaker 1: that statistically it would look like Georgia has an edge there.

438
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:53,280
Speaker 2: Milroe is an X factor in that.

439
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 1: Okay, Kirby talked the other day about how they haven't

440
00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,719
Speaker 1: faced a guy like him all year, and honestly, no

441
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:02,280
Speaker 1: team has because I don't really think that on most

442
00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 1: schedules out there, I've seen many teams that face another

443
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,320
Speaker 1: quarterback of Jalen milrose Ill. That's one advantage you have

444
00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:10,720
Speaker 1: when you're Alabama, when you go into these kinds of games,

445
00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:12,959
Speaker 1: is there's not another one of him out there. That

446
00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:15,480
Speaker 1: doesn't mean you can't defend him. I mean Texas beat

447
00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 1: him early in the year. Now, I would have argue

448
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:21,360
Speaker 1: he's playing much different caliber ball now, but it's it's

449
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 1: kind of an adjustment for a lot of guys who

450
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,399
Speaker 1: haven't dealt with that speed, dealt with that physicality, and

451
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:31,120
Speaker 1: dealt with that athleticism once he leaves the pocket. As

452
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,960
Speaker 1: much as I looked at third down, I then looked

453
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,720
Speaker 1: at touchdown percentage in the red zone. I'm never as

454
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:41,719
Speaker 1: interested in overall scoring percentage in the red zone as

455
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,479
Speaker 1: I am touchdown percentage. And that's where Bama's got an

456
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 1: edge down there. Offensively, They're nineteenth in touchdown percentage in

457
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:51,119
Speaker 1: the red zone, George's defense sixty seventh, which surprised me

458
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:54,720
Speaker 1: a little bit, Bama's defense twenty sixth, Georgia's offense thirty three.

459
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 1: So third down edge one way, red zone touchdown percentage

460
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 1: the other way. I tweeted out earlier today, I went

461
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:06,080
Speaker 1: back and forth four times in the office on who

462
00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:07,439
Speaker 1: I was going to pick. Here, I will show you

463
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,639
Speaker 1: what the model thinks. The Vegas number at FanDuel is

464
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 1: up to Georgia minus six and a half. The model's

465
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 1: not nearly that big, So either way, I go here.

466
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 1: We think there's value spread wise on Alabama, Colin, would

467
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:21,960
Speaker 1: you do me a favor. We've never done this before.

468
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:23,879
Speaker 1: Would you do me a favor? In for those who

469
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,919
Speaker 1: are watching on YouTube, could you just put up the

470
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:29,879
Speaker 1: lower third that shows my pick for a second. Jesse

471
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:33,719
Speaker 1: got a little nosy today. Okay, producer Jesse probably with

472
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:36,480
Speaker 1: a pen in one hand and like his phone logged

473
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 1: into fan Duel in another hand, waiting to place a

474
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:45,199
Speaker 1: bet at my ready at my call, Jesse logged in.

475
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 1: I told him, I'm not ready to tell you who

476
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 1: I'm picking in this game yet. It was really just

477
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,400
Speaker 1: cause I didn't know. So here's what I'm wrestling with.

478
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 1: Models got Georgia winning the game. I'm sitting there about

479
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 1: five point fifteen today thinking to myself, I very slightly

480
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:02,359
Speaker 1: leaned your to win this game, probably like a fifty

481
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:05,600
Speaker 1: two to forty eight percentage kind of deal, so not overwhelming.

482
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 1: But then I thought to myself. You picked Alabama in

483
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:14,640
Speaker 1: August to win the SEC championship. They're this close, and

484
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,880
Speaker 1: you bailed on them once before in twenty twenty one

485
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 1: in this game against this opponent, and they made you

486
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 1: look like a fool, and you had to come on

487
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:26,359
Speaker 1: your own show and hold up a piece of paper

488
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:30,120
Speaker 1: that said I'm sorry, Nick Saban and you said you'd

489
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:31,920
Speaker 1: never do it again. Well, here you are about to

490
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:34,119
Speaker 1: do it again. So I'm just gonna be real with you.

491
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 1: I'm taking a little bit of a risk here. Based

492
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,960
Speaker 1: on my own model and based on my own judgment,

493
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 1: I slightly lean Georgia to win the game, but I

494
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 1: am not abandoning my preseason pick, and so I am

495
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 1: taking Alabama to cover.

496
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:51,199
Speaker 2: But I'm going to take Alabama.

497
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 1: To win the SEC Championship game, And obviously that means

498
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,440
Speaker 1: I think it's a very very competitive, close game either way.

499
00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,160
Speaker 1: But if Bama comes out on top of this, can

500
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,639
Speaker 1: we get this whole other debate thrown into the mix,

501
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 1: And that is how far does Georgia fall? And I

502
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:08,119
Speaker 1: have no idea what the answer is. You know, I

503
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 1: told you I don't really get involved so much in

504
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 1: the hypothetical arguments because they just always work themselves out.

505
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:17,800
Speaker 1: So I was assuming that it was a widely held

506
00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:20,639
Speaker 1: consensus that the loser of this game does not go

507
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:21,240
Speaker 1: to the playoff.

508
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 2: That's what I thought.

509
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 1: But then I said that kind of flippantly last night,

510
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 1: and a bunch of you came at me and you said, no, Now,

511
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 1: if Bama loses, they're out, duh. But if Georgia loses

512
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,920
Speaker 1: a close game, you're not going to keep them out.

513
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 1: And I thought to myself, well, who are they going

514
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 1: to be in over? I'm still asking that, like, it's

515
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,199
Speaker 1: my opinion. If Georgia does lose the game, I think

516
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:42,840
Speaker 1: the committe will leave them out unless there's a lot

517
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 1: of chaos elsewhere. But maybe I'm wrong there. I don't know.

518
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 1: I haven't really become all that convicted on that opinion.

519
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 1: But I will tell you this, I'm very conflicted in

520
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 1: the pick. You can see it all over my face.

521
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 1: I'm very conflicted in the pick. But I'm going to

522
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 1: roll with Alabama to win the game. And I am

523
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 1: going to listen to the August version of myself, which

524
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 1: was on this shoulder yelling, do not abandon me and

525
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:11,160
Speaker 1: yourself at the eleventh hour. However, you feel this game's

526
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 1: going to go. There is one place for you because

527
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 1: the once upon a Saturday Tour shirt not sold at Academy.

528
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 1: Everything else is Colin. Keep this thing up for a

529
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 1: second immunity, the once upon a Saturday shirt. This is

530
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:26,640
Speaker 1: the last individual shirt that we're putting out this year,

531
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 1: so we're making a stop in Atlanta SEC Championship. Obviously,

532
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,400
Speaker 1: peytstatematerial dot Com is where you can get our shirt,

533
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,400
Speaker 1: and that will be gone after Saturday night and you'll

534
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 1: never be able to get this one again.

535
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 2: But after that, and some say even before that.

536
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 1: Some are saying as early as Thursday night, another shirt

537
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 1: is popping up in the Peate State store. And that's

538
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 1: the shirt with every single tour date on it that

539
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 1: commemorates the entire twenty twenty three season. Now, look, I'm

540
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:58,879
Speaker 1: just telling you what I've heard. I happen to know

541
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 1: the guy who runs the store or so I get

542
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 1: some intel every now and then I hear. I have

543
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 1: it on good authority that that shirt's dropping Thursday night,

544
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 1: So this one's available onto Saturday night. May have another

545
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 1: fresh little piece of merchant there on Thursday. All right,

546
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 1: there you go, Academy Sports and outdoors. They don't ever

547
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 1: tell you, hey, wait for Thursday. You could go in

548
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 1: there right now. I don't encourage it because we're on

549
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:20,560
Speaker 1: the air, but you could go in there right now.

550
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 2: And you know what, if you say no, I.

551
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 1: Don't feel like going out of the house, this late

552
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 1: Academy dot Com is there for you. I mean, I'm

553
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 1: gonna see those guys in Atlanta Saturday. I look forward

554
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:33,639
Speaker 1: to that. They make this show free of charge to you.

555
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 1: But like I often say, it's not some it's not

556
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 1: some chemical company or pipeline company that otherwise has very

557
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 1: little bearing on your life. These people sell a lot

558
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,920
Speaker 1: of stuff you buy every day anyway. So I encourage

559
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:50,840
Speaker 1: you go to Academy to purchase your grills or your canopies, intents,

560
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 1: or those folding chairs you all sit in on the

561
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 1: deck or at a tailgate.

562
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:55,120
Speaker 2: You need a new.

563
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:58,440
Speaker 1: Baseball glove, just go to Academy or Academy dot com.

564
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 1: They make the show free, and they are our partner,

565
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:05,920
Speaker 1: and we really appreciate them for all they do. Here

566
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 1: we go a conference championship picks roll on here. You

567
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:11,160
Speaker 1: thought that we were only going to be at one game,

568
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:14,159
Speaker 1: but no, we will be in Las Vegas Friday night

569
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:17,880
Speaker 1: for the PAC twelve championship game, Oregon against Washington eight

570
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:21,679
Speaker 1: o'clock Eastern time, five o'clock local kick, which is very

571
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 1: important if you're catching a flight out of there.

572
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 2: It's an ABC game.

573
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:29,479
Speaker 1: This is the only regular season rematch in all the

574
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:32,440
Speaker 1: Power five championship games? Did you know that? I didn't

575
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 1: even know that producer Jesse special there. This was a classic.

576
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:38,280
Speaker 1: We were at the game in Seattle and the one

577
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 1: you're looking at here if you're watching on YouTube.

578
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 2: We were at this game Washington.

579
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,639
Speaker 1: Folks think I hate him, which is absurd. Let me

580
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,880
Speaker 1: give you guys some flowers. This was the loudest game

581
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:52,719
Speaker 1: we went to this year. How about that seventy thousand

582
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 1: seats up there Husky Stadium. We were at Ohio State Michigan.

583
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:58,680
Speaker 1: We were at Bama LSU. Bama LSU was the other

584
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 1: loudest game we went to this year. There was not

585
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 1: when a stadium was at full throat, a louder environment

586
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:11,920
Speaker 1: that I experienced this year than Oregon at Washington Husky Stadium. Unbelievable.

587
00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:14,199
Speaker 1: We were there, it was awesome. And so thirty six

588
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 1: to thirty three was the final and Oregon. You know, famously,

589
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 1: they had two turnovers on downs inside the Washington ten.

590
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 1: They turned it over again near midfield late in the

591
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 1: fourth quarter, and that was the difference in the game.

592
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 1: But I thought that people did a little disservice to

593
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 1: Washington after the game and the way they talked about that,

594
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 1: you know, they talked about that in other words like, well,

595
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 1: Dan Lanning screwed this up, and you know, it was

596
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 1: almost like it was independent of Washington. I don't think

597
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 1: it was necessarily just flukish that Oregon did not convert.

598
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 1: Teams are thirteen of thirty three on fourth down against

599
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 1: Washington this year. It's not just Oregon. They've had success

600
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 1: against guys, and so it's very easy. It's very easy

601
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 1: to find out how you avoid this. Mema used to

602
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 1: always tell me, She said, kiddo, if you convert on

603
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 1: third down, you never have to worry about fourth downs.

604
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 1: Sage advice Mema never missed. Oregon offensively is third n

605
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 1: FBS in third down conversion percentage. Washington's defense is eighty

606
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 1: ninth in third down conversions allowed.

607
00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 2: That should be your ballgame.

608
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 1: If those stats hold up, or anywhere roughly to to

609
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 1: come close to holding up, that's your ballgame. But sometimes

610
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:35,840
Speaker 1: that's not how college football games work. I mean, you

611
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 1: could look at the matchups. I've got a piece of

612
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 1: paper here. Oregon better pass rush, the defense is better overall,

613
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 1: they got a better run game, They're better at ball security.

614
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:46,480
Speaker 1: Oregon's got edges here. That's why they're a nine and

615
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 1: a half point favorite, by the way. But you know

616
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:52,040
Speaker 1: what I've seen time and time again in college football,

617
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 1: I've seen a team have some edges and then I've

618
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 1: seen elite skill play just erase all of it. And

619
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 1: a Dunze and Polk and McMillan and Bernard, those wide

620
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:07,160
Speaker 1: receivers for Washington, if they go off, a lot of

621
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:11,720
Speaker 1: that stuff doesn't matter because the value, the point value

622
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 1: that those guys having big games can bring you in

623
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 1: a four quarter scenario can negate a lot of other

624
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 1: edges that the opponent may have. And so that's the

625
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 1: great unknown for me in this game. The Duns, they

626
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:26,680
Speaker 1: went off in this last game, so Detroit Franklin, like

627
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 1: both guys, both number one receivers had big days when

628
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 1: they played the first time. What will Washington's pass catchers

629
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 1: deliver for them Saturday? What will Michael Pennix do. Those

630
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 1: are great unknowns. November theory is in play here though.

631
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 1: You know, as much as I'm talking about Washington right

632
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:45,880
Speaker 1: now and talking them up, they've played very close football games.

633
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:49,920
Speaker 1: Oregon has not. Oregon has won six straight. They've averaged

634
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 1: winning by twenty six points per game. Washington's got eight

635
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 1: wins in a row. Well really, they've won all their games,

636
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 1: but their last eight wins have been by ten points

637
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 1: of few. So they've been doing what it takes to

638
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 1: get wins, not getting margin on people. And I really

639
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 1: think by November you should believe in trajectories of teams.

640
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:13,560
Speaker 2: So let's take a look at what the model thinks.

641
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 1: The Vegas number right now, powered by FanDuel, is orgon

642
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 1: minus nine and a half. We still don't think that

643
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 1: number is big enough. We got we got orgon minus ten. Now,

644
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 1: you guys know, if you look at the jp pole,

645
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:27,719
Speaker 1: you know what, if you look at the jppole, were

646
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 1: completely validated because this is a neutral site. And that's

647
00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 1: exactly what that poll's built to do. It's built to

648
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 1: tell you what the gap would be points spread wise

649
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 1: between one team and another team. Here's what I want

650
00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 1: to remind you of it up matter if Washington pulls

651
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 1: the upset here, if you guys pull the upset, I'll say, congrats,

652
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 1: you're headed to the playoff.

653
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 2: The JP Pole's work is.

654
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:54,400
Speaker 1: Done already, It's already been proven right because it doesn't

655
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 1: care what happens in the game. This number right here, right,

656
00:31:57,640 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 1: that's what we're looking at. Or I guess that number

657
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 1: down there, we're looking at the point spread. That's why

658
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 1: we've had as big a gap as we have between

659
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 1: Oregon and Washington, because in the eyes of odds makers,

660
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 1: that's how big the gap is. That's it, and that's all.

661
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 1: I'll be the first person to tell you if Washington wins,

662
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 1: they're in the playoff, even though we probably would still

663
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 1: not have them. We still wouldn't have Empower rated top four,

664
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:23,200
Speaker 1: I don't think, but at that point it's irrelevant. So anyway,

665
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 1: I think Oregon's gonna win, and I think Organon's gonna cover.

666
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:28,720
Speaker 1: That is my pick for the game. But I do

667
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 1: want to go back about two minutes to my biggest

668
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 1: fear if I'm Oregon, and that is I figure out

669
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 1: early on those wide receivers are dialed in, and I

670
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 1: figure out early on Michael Pennix is dialed in because

671
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 1: if he is, Oregon's not running it up. Oregon could

672
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 1: get beat out right. They're certainly not going to run

673
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 1: away from Washington. I just believe in totality, like the

674
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 1: incremental margins of superiority that Oregon has in different places

675
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 1: across the board, will play out over the span of

676
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 1: four quarters. I'll put it to you like this because

677
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:00,959
Speaker 1: I told someone this last night. Oregon does not have

678
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 1: to do a thing different than what they've been doing

679
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:07,480
Speaker 1: recently to win this game. I do believe Washington has

680
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 1: to go above and beyond what they've been doing lately.

681
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 1: If they do it, more power to them. I don't

682
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 1: think they will. Let's move on. Take a quick sip

683
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 1: from the chalice, which is better.

684
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:20,000
Speaker 2: Than a commercial break. I think.

685
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 1: This one will be very interesting. I'm glad you guys

686
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 1: are tuned in live. Make sure you like the video.

687
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 1: This one will be interesting. ACC Championship Game Saturday night,

688
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 1: eight o'clock Eastern in Charlotte. It's FSU versus Louisville. If

689
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 1: you haven't looked at point spreads this week, it might

690
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,959
Speaker 1: surprise you to know that Florida State is merely a

691
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 1: two and a half point favorite at FanDuel over Louisville.

692
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:51,480
Speaker 2: It's a weird spot.

693
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 1: It's a weird spot because most of the time, when

694
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 1: you get in conference championship type situations, you know everything

695
00:33:58,200 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 1: there is to know about teams, and at that point,

696
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 1: do they play up to what we know their potential is? Well,

697
00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 1: we don't know what Florida State's potential is. You lose

698
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 1: your quarterback, everything gets the reset button hit on it,

699
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:14,760
Speaker 1: and so we have to throw out their stat profile.

700
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 1: Florida State becomes a different team. Now, doesn't mean they

701
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 1: can't win, it's just we kind of got to figure

702
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:19,800
Speaker 1: out how this.

703
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 2: Team will beat Louisville.

704
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:24,800
Speaker 1: It's the you know, this is the best statistical offense

705
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 1: that Florida State has seen since the LSU game. That

706
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:31,439
Speaker 1: sounds a little weird, doesn't it. Statistically now, Man for man,

707
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 1: I'm not making comment on that. I'm saying, statistically, they

708
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:37,759
Speaker 1: faced LSU in Week one. This is the next best

709
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:40,360
Speaker 1: team they will have faced. Maybe they fair against Louisville

710
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 1: like they did against LSU. That's the best I saw

711
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:44,880
Speaker 1: Florida State look all year, So that'd be tough. But

712
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 1: let's see Florida State's strength today without Jordan Travis is

713
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 1: their ground game. Trey Benson. We talked about him Sunday night,

714
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 1: huge performance, three touchdowns on the ground against Florida. The

715
00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:01,560
Speaker 1: problem is you're facing the top fifteen defense in Louisville.

716
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 1: I would be very surprised if Florida State just ran

717
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:07,000
Speaker 1: the ball to a victory Saturday.

718
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 2: They're going to have to do something through the air.

719
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:11,879
Speaker 1: Tate Roademaker is going to have to be a significant

720
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 1: enough performer and a mistake free enough performer through the

721
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:17,759
Speaker 1: air to get the job done. Louisville's number three in

722
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 1: red zone defense too, so they make it tough. This

723
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 1: is not an easy defense to move the ball on.

724
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:25,360
Speaker 1: And especially if they get the sense that you're becoming

725
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 1: one dimensional, then you're really in for a long night.

726
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 1: I wonder because of that, how much Florida State has

727
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:34,799
Speaker 1: to do through the air. How much do they have

728
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 1: to ask that young quarterback or that green quarterback to

729
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 1: do through the air, Because the weapons are there, like

730
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:43,920
Speaker 1: Coleman and Wilson, like those guys are there. It's just

731
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 1: how comfortable are you or if it's necessary, how confident

732
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:51,720
Speaker 1: are you in leaning on him? Because the other side,

733
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,759
Speaker 1: I'm looking at Jack Plumber, who sort of quietly has

734
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 1: been one of the best transfer portal additions at quarterback

735
00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 1: for any team in the country this year twenty one

736
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 1: touchdowns less picks.

737
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:03,040
Speaker 2: FSU can put pressure on him.

738
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:05,360
Speaker 1: They're gonna have to, you know, I think about that

739
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:09,359
Speaker 1: Clemson game where FSU went up there and defense kind

740
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:12,399
Speaker 1: of stole the show. Defense needs to do that again here.

741
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 1: Louisville will turn the ball over. They turned it over

742
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:18,280
Speaker 1: three times last week against Kentucky. They had another turnover

743
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 1: on downs. You gotta get after Plumber, and from a

744
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 1: galvanization standpoint, that entire team has to know, from the

745
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:28,360
Speaker 1: running back room to the outside linebackers everywhere in between.

746
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:31,200
Speaker 1: They got to know it is not Jordan Travis that's

747
00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:33,319
Speaker 1: about to win us a conference championship.

748
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 2: It's the team that's got to win it.

749
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 1: And so if defense has to score, then that's what

750
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 1: it's gonna take, or at least if defense has got

751
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:42,919
Speaker 1: to set you up with short fields three times, that's

752
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:45,920
Speaker 1: what it's gonna have to take. They need that Clemson formula.

753
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:49,440
Speaker 1: They're number eight defensively in sacks in the country. They

754
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 1: got to hit the quarterback. They gotta knock balls loose,

755
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 1: they got to pick balls off, They gotta force funnels,

756
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:56,759
Speaker 1: they gotta they gotta go above and beyond to give

757
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:59,399
Speaker 1: theirselves the best shot of winning this Saturday. A key

758
00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:02,880
Speaker 1: player to watch, also on the other side is Jordan

759
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 1: the running back for Louisville is a thousand yard rusher

760
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:09,720
Speaker 1: six point four yards per carry. And while Florida State's

761
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:13,800
Speaker 1: pretty good against the past, they're just above average against

762
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:16,759
Speaker 1: the run, forty seventh in the country against the rush.

763
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 1: Just keep an eye on that. We're talking a lot

764
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 1: about Trade Benson. It may be the other guy that

765
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:24,080
Speaker 1: you talk about in the fourth quarter. Okay, the fan

766
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 1: dual number right now is Florida State minus two and

767
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:30,760
Speaker 1: a half. Let's take a look at what the model thinks.

768
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 1: The model is even shorter on Florida State than that.

769
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 1: Our number, according to the model is Florida State minus

770
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:38,920
Speaker 1: one and a half.

771
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:41,359
Speaker 2: I went back and took a.

772
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:45,320
Speaker 1: Long look at Louisville Kentucky last week because we've nailed

773
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:46,439
Speaker 1: Louisville games this year.

774
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 2: We picked them to beat Notre Dame.

775
00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 1: They did, and then we picked him to lose to

776
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:54,279
Speaker 1: pit the next week, and they did so model has

777
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:58,080
Speaker 1: been pretty dialed in on Louisville. They turned them all

778
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:01,600
Speaker 1: over three times against Kentucky, had another turnover on downs

779
00:38:01,600 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 1: and that led to a loss. And I think it

780
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:08,280
Speaker 1: is the worst time to face Louisville. I think Louisville's

781
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 1: gonna pull the upset. I think they're gonna win and

782
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:13,800
Speaker 1: obviously cover. I don't think this is a really good matchup.

783
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 1: I don't think it's a favorable matchup at all. For

784
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 1: Florida State had Travis, it's a different story. But at

785
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:22,560
Speaker 1: the same time, man, I thought they were gonna lose

786
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:25,279
Speaker 1: to Florida last week, and you could argue they should have,

787
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:27,279
Speaker 1: but I don't really ever say that, because if you

788
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:29,759
Speaker 1: should have, you would have. They found a way to win.

789
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:32,560
Speaker 1: It could very well be that this Saturday night, you

790
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:36,200
Speaker 1: watch Louisville out gain them and you think they outplayed them,

791
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:40,960
Speaker 1: and there's Florida State. Somehow they've used ten fingers to

792
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 1: plug thirteen holes in the dam and they win, and

793
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:47,719
Speaker 1: you're like, how did they do that? It's Mike Norvell's team, man,

794
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:49,439
Speaker 1: They they found a way to do it all year.

795
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:55,239
Speaker 1: I think Louisville's gonna win. It's a small confidence wager there,

796
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:58,799
Speaker 1: but I think they're gonna win. Uh, you know what,

797
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 1: let's do jppoul right quick. I got some movement in

798
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:03,799
Speaker 1: the I don't want to say it. I don't want

799
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 1: to use that combination.

800
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 2: Of you know what, I'll say it.

801
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:07,959
Speaker 1: There is some movement and the JP pole this week,

802
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 1: and you can choose to use immunity or not JP pole. Finally,

803
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:15,279
Speaker 1: we're here at the finish line and we've still got

804
00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:17,040
Speaker 1: people having no clue how this works.

805
00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:18,840
Speaker 2: But it's been validated.

806
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 1: Time and time again, so I'm not gonna waste time

807
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 1: defending it.

808
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 2: A lot of you have grown tired of that.

809
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:26,560
Speaker 1: I'm just telling you. These have nothing to do with rankings.

810
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:31,560
Speaker 1: This is just neutral field favorability. For example, Washington is

811
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:35,640
Speaker 1: undefeated and is a nine and a half point underdog

812
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:39,359
Speaker 1: Friday night against a team they already beat. What does

813
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:42,759
Speaker 1: that show you, children? It shows you that one game

814
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 1: outcomes are not the end all be all when it

815
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 1: comes to future facing. Neutral field favorability, that's all. That's

816
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 1: all we try to do with the japeople. So let's

817
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:56,759
Speaker 1: take a look Colin at number twenty five through twenty one.

818
00:39:57,080 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 1: The SMU haters are out and about again because the

819
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:04,680
Speaker 1: old ponies have re emerged suspiciously in the jpeople. It

820
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:09,320
Speaker 1: goes Kansas, Oregon State, SMU, NC State.

821
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 2: And Iowa State twenty five to twenty one.

822
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 1: And did you know, courtesy of stats in Info, did

823
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:19,360
Speaker 1: you know that SMU is the only G five to

824
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:22,359
Speaker 1: have a top twenty five defense and points per game

825
00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 1: allowed and offense in points per game scored. And they

826
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:29,080
Speaker 1: just re upp threat lashly. So good things happening in Dallas.

827
00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 1: They're in C State. They've won five in a row.

828
00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:34,719
Speaker 1: They had Clemson and Miami and North Carolina mixed in

829
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:37,360
Speaker 1: their great job by Dave Dord. Maybe we were a

830
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 1: week or two behind on them. Great job in Iowa State.

831
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:43,239
Speaker 1: I didn't even have to manually override this time. They

832
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 1: just jumped up there all by themselves. They went to Manhattan,

833
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 1: Kansas and got a win in the snow.

834
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:52,560
Speaker 2: Seven wins. Not bad. It's something we can build on.

835
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 2: Top twenty.

836
00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:58,200
Speaker 1: Very interesting because we have Louisville at number twenty. They're

837
00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 1: playing in a conference title game. I just showed you,

838
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:03,600
Speaker 1: like we don't have to guess. I showed you what

839
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:06,080
Speaker 1: the model thinks I'm going to do. A little spoiler here.

840
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:08,799
Speaker 1: We've got FSU at thirteen. Right now, there is a

841
00:41:08,840 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 1: one and a half point gap between Florida State and Louisville.

842
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:15,360
Speaker 1: And that's exactly why the model, because these teams are

843
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:18,320
Speaker 1: playing on a neutral field. Saturday showed you FSU minus

844
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:20,319
Speaker 1: one and a half against Louisville. That's literally how this

845
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:22,920
Speaker 1: thing works. A and M's very steady. A and M's

846
00:41:22,920 --> 00:41:24,759
Speaker 1: at seventeen, so I should read it for those of

847
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 1: you on podcast twenty to sixteen is Louisville, Tennessee Ole,

848
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 1: miss Texas A and M Kansas State A and m's

849
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:35,919
Speaker 1: just been there all year. They are the easiest team

850
00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:37,839
Speaker 1: to slot here. And you may not think that because

851
00:41:37,880 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 1: they got a ton of losses. They are right where

852
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:42,080
Speaker 1: they should be. That is not even a tough team

853
00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 1: to figure out. From an odds making standpoint. They are

854
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:48,160
Speaker 1: right where they should be. Let's go top fifteen.

855
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:50,120
Speaker 2: Not a ton of.

856
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:55,280
Speaker 1: Separation that may surprise you here between Washington and Arizona.

857
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:59,080
Speaker 1: I cannot believe that's the case. So it goes clemsing

858
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:04,720
Speaker 1: at fifteen, Arizona fourteen, Florida State thirteen, Washington twelve, Missouri eleven.

859
00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:07,799
Speaker 1: That's the highest Missouri has been all year. Washington is

860
00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:13,200
Speaker 1: at twelve, and the evidence is kind of There's the

861
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:15,440
Speaker 1: fortunate thing for me is it's not that arguable this

862
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:16,160
Speaker 1: time of year.

863
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:17,040
Speaker 2: You're a nine and a.

864
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:20,240
Speaker 1: Half point dog against Oregon, a team you've beaten already.

865
00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:22,319
Speaker 1: It's just Vegas is kind of validating what we've been

866
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 1: saying on this thing for a while, and we're still

867
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 1: called idiots. Florida State at thirteen, that's without Jordan Travis.

868
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:31,319
Speaker 1: We had to shave six and three quarter points off

869
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 1: of Florida State's power rating. If you lose six and

870
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:36,799
Speaker 1: three quarter points, you're falling, and so that's where they are.

871
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:40,839
Speaker 1: That right there means that we would favor Missouri if

872
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:44,400
Speaker 1: they played Florida State tomorrow, which isn't crazy at all

873
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:47,400
Speaker 1: because Louisville's almost favored against you, and Louisville's not the

874
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:50,839
Speaker 1: team Missouri is. Even so, congrats to Missouri. I don't

875
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:53,160
Speaker 1: want to just gloss over the fact that they're bordering

876
00:42:53,239 --> 00:42:55,919
Speaker 1: on top ten status. Even as a power rating, they're

877
00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:58,319
Speaker 1: bordering on top ten. We continue, let's go into the

878
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 1: top ten. Penn State is number ten. How do you

879
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:05,440
Speaker 1: do that? Josh Well it's very simple. They've lost to

880
00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:08,560
Speaker 1: two top five teams and beating everyone else. That's pretty

881
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:11,879
Speaker 1: much right where they should be. OU is nine, Notre Dame,

882
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 1: one of the sneakiest good teams in the country this year.

883
00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:15,120
Speaker 2: They're at eight.

884
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:19,279
Speaker 1: LSU sits at seven, still Texas at six. I know,

885
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:22,800
Speaker 1: if you're unfamiliar with how this works, LSU looks weird

886
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:26,480
Speaker 1: there at seven, you head out to Vegas.

887
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:27,360
Speaker 2: We'll be there Friday.

888
00:43:27,719 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 1: Head out there, or you know, we'd call our partners

889
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:38,200
Speaker 1: up at FanDuel ask them, hey, hypothetically, hypothetically LSU versus Washington, Hey,

890
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:41,440
Speaker 1: here's one that would really hurt your feelings. LSU versus

891
00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:45,239
Speaker 1: Florida State again, who would be favored. I don't think

892
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:47,759
Speaker 1: you guys are ready for that answer. It wouldn't go

893
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:50,160
Speaker 1: the way you may think it goes. If you believe

894
00:43:50,160 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 1: you are what your record says you are. I said,

895
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:53,960
Speaker 1: Texas at six, here we go.

896
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:54,720
Speaker 2: Top five.

897
00:43:55,880 --> 00:43:59,879
Speaker 1: Ohio State is exactly where they were last week. Miss

898
00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 1: Michigan is exactly where they were last week. We when

899
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 1: calibrating for turnover margin, which isn't an excuse for how

900
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:11,160
Speaker 1: the game played out, but from a future looking standpoint.

901
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:14,239
Speaker 1: You know, we always ignore turnover margin and we look

902
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:16,640
Speaker 1: at how otherwise the game was played out. Game was

903
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:18,759
Speaker 1: played out exactly how we thought it should have played out.

904
00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:22,240
Speaker 1: So Ohio State and Michigan gap remains exactly the same

905
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:26,719
Speaker 1: minuscule between those two teams. Bama fell one spot to three,

906
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,759
Speaker 1: Oregon's back up to two, and george is still the

907
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:33,800
Speaker 1: number one team in the country. We unlike Vegas, unlike FanDuel,

908
00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:36,399
Speaker 1: We've only got a three and a half point gap

909
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:40,319
Speaker 1: between Georgia and Alabama on a neutral field. So hey,

910
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:42,719
Speaker 1: good news is we just saw one of those games

911
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 1: already happen. We're gonna get Georgia Obama this Saturday, and

912
00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:50,360
Speaker 1: eventually the JP pole will be a moot point because

913
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:53,600
Speaker 1: it will have happened on the field, and at that point,

914
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:56,400
Speaker 1: you know what's really gonna be fun. What's gonna be

915
00:44:56,400 --> 00:44:59,440
Speaker 1: fun is if some of these games don't play out

916
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:01,839
Speaker 1: the way I picked them, Like I think Florida State

917
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:03,840
Speaker 1: could lose to Louisville, but if they don't, they're in

918
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:06,839
Speaker 1: the playoff and they should be. If Washington does not

919
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 1: lose to Oregon, they're in the playoff as they should be.

920
00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:13,480
Speaker 1: What you will see then is very big double digit

921
00:45:13,520 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 1: point spreads on playoff games, which doesn't mean anything other

922
00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:22,279
Speaker 1: than it will go on to illustrate further how this

923
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:27,120
Speaker 1: works is how those point spreads are generating. There is big,

924
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:31,799
Speaker 1: big gap right now between Georgia and a Washington. There's

925
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:34,680
Speaker 1: a gap between an Alabama and an FSU. Like I'm

926
00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:37,160
Speaker 1: just telling you it's gonna be there. So if those

927
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:40,440
Speaker 1: are the matchups, like if you get Oregon versus Florida

928
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:42,279
Speaker 1: State in a semi final game, Oregon is going to

929
00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:45,480
Speaker 1: be a double digit favorite. I firmly believe that, and

930
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:47,240
Speaker 1: then they'll play the actual game in the point spread

931
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:49,640
Speaker 1: doesn't matter. But we have a lot of fun trying

932
00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:50,719
Speaker 1: to figure this out ahead of time.

933
00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:53,400
Speaker 2: All right, let's continue moving on. We have more games.

934
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:58,040
Speaker 1: Someone just said in the chat, James said Texas should

935
00:45:58,080 --> 00:45:59,399
Speaker 1: be ranked above Ohio State.

936
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:03,839
Speaker 2: Those aren't rankings, so it has nothing to do with

937
00:46:03,840 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 2: what I just said.

938
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:07,720
Speaker 1: If James, if you want to talk to the playoff committee,

939
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:11,239
Speaker 1: you could do that. But I've never ranked teams, and

940
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:13,560
Speaker 1: unless they let me on the playoff committee, I'm probably

941
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:16,799
Speaker 1: not going to start ranking teams. All right, let's continue

942
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:20,279
Speaker 1: what you're doing Saturday first thing, high noon on the

943
00:46:20,280 --> 00:46:27,200
Speaker 1: East coast. What you're doing here, because the Big Twelve

944
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 1: Championship game is Saturday at high noon. It is Texas,

945
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:33,919
Speaker 1: it is Oklahoma State, which if it's in Dallas means

946
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 1: it's an eleven am local kick. Well, well, well, there

947
00:46:39,080 --> 00:46:42,319
Speaker 1: was one person on that island that I was on

948
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:45,560
Speaker 1: in August. I could yell as loud as I wanted to,

949
00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:48,160
Speaker 1: and all I got was hatred from offshore.

950
00:46:48,600 --> 00:46:49,840
Speaker 2: And I was yelling out.

951
00:46:49,719 --> 00:46:56,279
Speaker 1: There Texas and Oklahoma State Big Twelve Championship Game, and

952
00:46:56,320 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 1: they just torched and pitched for it to me. Well,

953
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:02,719
Speaker 1: who's yelling on the island now? Still all alone? But

954
00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:03,960
Speaker 1: who's yelling over here?

955
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:05,480
Speaker 2: It's me? It's me.

956
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:09,360
Speaker 1: This does not bode well for Oklahoma State. So I

957
00:47:09,360 --> 00:47:11,359
Speaker 1: want to get as much celebration as I can out

958
00:47:11,360 --> 00:47:15,520
Speaker 1: of the way. Alan Bowman at quarterback gonna need the

959
00:47:15,520 --> 00:47:16,360
Speaker 1: game of his life.

960
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:19,520
Speaker 2: He has to shine the good news.

961
00:47:19,600 --> 00:47:21,279
Speaker 1: The good news I guess to start this off is

962
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 1: he does have three hundred plus yards passing in three

963
00:47:24,200 --> 00:47:26,720
Speaker 1: of his last four games. I would love to stop

964
00:47:26,760 --> 00:47:30,400
Speaker 1: the preview there, but I am dutifully informed that he

965
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:34,560
Speaker 1: has six interceptions. In his last three games as well. Now,

966
00:47:34,840 --> 00:47:37,239
Speaker 1: there are a few truths in an uncertain world, but

967
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 1: one of them is Oklahoma State cannot be losing the

968
00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:41,840
Speaker 1: turnover battle in a game where they are over a

969
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:45,879
Speaker 1: two touchdown underdog and stand any chance to win. I'd

970
00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:48,960
Speaker 1: be very surprised if Texas offensively didn't just go off

971
00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:52,200
Speaker 1: in this game. It's the They just came off their

972
00:47:52,200 --> 00:47:55,640
Speaker 1: best offensive game of the year against Texas Tech. Here

973
00:47:55,719 --> 00:47:59,960
Speaker 1: are some disconcerting numbers that Stats and Info have provided me.

974
00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:04,680
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State one hundred and fifth in rush yards per

975
00:48:04,719 --> 00:48:10,200
Speaker 1: game allowed, Oklahoma State one one hundred and thirteenth in

976
00:48:10,320 --> 00:48:13,960
Speaker 1: pass yards per game allowed, Oklahoma State one hundred and

977
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:19,120
Speaker 1: twenty sixth in explosive plays allowed. Texas is the best

978
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:21,560
Speaker 1: wide receiver tight end combo they will have faced all year.

979
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:25,200
Speaker 2: I am very concerned, greatly concerned.

980
00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:29,680
Speaker 1: Unless Texas shoots both feet, they can't just shoot themselves

981
00:48:29,680 --> 00:48:31,839
Speaker 1: in one foot both feet. Unless they do that, they're

982
00:48:31,840 --> 00:48:34,479
Speaker 1: gonna have a lot of success, which means Oklahoma State's

983
00:48:34,520 --> 00:48:36,440
Speaker 1: either gonna have to force a bunch of red zone stops,

984
00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:39,280
Speaker 1: force turnovers, or they're gonna have to score forty themselves.

985
00:48:39,480 --> 00:48:42,279
Speaker 1: Let's go back to the red zone. Texas fans know

986
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:45,840
Speaker 1: all too well that the way Texas shoots itself in

987
00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:49,239
Speaker 1: the foot, the way Texas pulls its own emergency brake,

988
00:48:49,960 --> 00:48:52,759
Speaker 1: is they stall in the red zone. Texas offensively is

989
00:48:52,760 --> 00:48:55,120
Speaker 1: one hundred and seventh when they get down there, but

990
00:48:55,200 --> 00:48:58,479
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State's defense is in the sixties, so there's really

991
00:48:58,520 --> 00:49:02,240
Speaker 1: no strength on weakness matchup there either. Oklahoma States offense

992
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:04,799
Speaker 1: is forty sixth in the red zone. Texas has got

993
00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:08,760
Speaker 1: the best red zone d in the country. So I'm trying, guys,

994
00:49:08,840 --> 00:49:11,839
Speaker 1: I'm trying to find the mismatch. I'm trying to find

995
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:15,319
Speaker 1: the ray of sunshine here, and it's Oli Gordon. It's

996
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:17,840
Speaker 1: that running back for Oklahoma State. He leads fbs and

997
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:23,400
Speaker 1: rushing yards. And every time I think I see something,

998
00:49:23,560 --> 00:49:26,040
Speaker 1: there's this follow up. And the follow up in this

999
00:49:26,120 --> 00:49:29,279
Speaker 1: case is Oklahoma State's got the best running back at

1000
00:49:29,320 --> 00:49:33,719
Speaker 1: least statistically in college football. Texas's top five against the run.

1001
00:49:34,880 --> 00:49:39,840
Speaker 1: So have I have I intrigued you enough to at

1002
00:49:39,920 --> 00:49:42,360
Speaker 1: least look at what the model thinks. Texas is favored

1003
00:49:42,400 --> 00:49:45,000
Speaker 1: by fourteen and a half at FanDuel I would think

1004
00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:46,840
Speaker 1: that number is going to keep going up. The model

1005
00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:52,360
Speaker 1: has Texas minus sixteen. I felt strongly that Texas was

1006
00:49:52,400 --> 00:49:55,640
Speaker 1: about to blow out Texas Tech last week. I feel

1007
00:49:55,800 --> 00:49:58,560
Speaker 1: fairly good that Texas is going to win and get

1008
00:49:58,560 --> 00:50:01,480
Speaker 1: some margin here. I am going to go with the model.

1009
00:50:01,520 --> 00:50:04,200
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Texas to win. I think they're gonna

1010
00:50:04,239 --> 00:50:07,120
Speaker 1: cover very good story for Oklahoma State. But I think

1011
00:50:07,160 --> 00:50:12,560
Speaker 1: a lot of folks from like Eugene or Seattle, or

1012
00:50:12,600 --> 00:50:16,120
Speaker 1: Tuscaloosa or elsewhere, I think a lot of folks were

1013
00:50:16,120 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 1: pulling for Brigham Young last week because I think you

1014
00:50:19,080 --> 00:50:23,480
Speaker 1: wanted Oklahoma in this game, not because it guaranteed anything,

1015
00:50:23,600 --> 00:50:25,560
Speaker 1: not because you're a Sooner fan, but you know, good

1016
00:50:25,600 --> 00:50:27,680
Speaker 1: and well, the only team that's got as good a

1017
00:50:27,800 --> 00:50:30,239
Speaker 1: chance as any of beating Texas out there is Oklahoma.

1018
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:35,160
Speaker 1: And once Oklahoma State came back and beat Brigham Young Texas,

1019
00:50:35,440 --> 00:50:37,520
Speaker 1: they made sure they got to somewhere where no one

1020
00:50:37,520 --> 00:50:41,520
Speaker 1: could hear them, and they said yes, And then they

1021
00:50:41,560 --> 00:50:43,320
Speaker 1: got back out in front of the camera and microphone

1022
00:50:43,320 --> 00:50:45,960
Speaker 1: and said, nameless, faceless opponent, doesn't matter.

1023
00:50:46,200 --> 00:50:49,920
Speaker 2: We treat every game the same. That's a lie.

1024
00:50:50,719 --> 00:50:52,759
Speaker 1: You guys know you got a favorable draw here, not

1025
00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:55,080
Speaker 1: your fault. You did exactly what you're supposed to do,

1026
00:50:55,280 --> 00:50:57,440
Speaker 1: and I think they will continue at Texas to do

1027
00:50:57,440 --> 00:50:58,920
Speaker 1: what they're supposed to do. I think they will win

1028
00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:03,400
Speaker 1: and cover Saturday. Transfer portal is on fire. The transfer

1029
00:51:03,480 --> 00:51:05,839
Speaker 1: portal is a blaze, and it's only going to grow

1030
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:10,000
Speaker 1: because December fourth is rapidly approaching. We've got a we

1031
00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:12,400
Speaker 1: got a predicted flood of quarterbacks that are going to

1032
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:15,040
Speaker 1: enter the transfer portal and some of them already have.

1033
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:19,560
Speaker 1: Will Rogers at Mississippi State in the portal, and even

1034
00:51:19,600 --> 00:51:22,600
Speaker 1: with Jeff Levy's higher it looks like he's gonna stay

1035
00:51:22,640 --> 00:51:25,719
Speaker 1: in the portal. That huge numbers pre twenty twenty three.

1036
00:51:26,080 --> 00:51:28,960
Speaker 1: I mean, they screwed that kid in the ground this year,

1037
00:51:29,320 --> 00:51:32,440
Speaker 1: and so he's shown you what he can do. Tyler

1038
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:36,720
Speaker 1: Van Dyke at Miami has entered the transfer portal. Will

1039
00:51:36,880 --> 00:51:40,160
Speaker 1: Howard out there at Kansas State as it looks like

1040
00:51:40,239 --> 00:51:43,880
Speaker 1: it's Avery Johnson's team moving forward. He's entered the transfer portal,

1041
00:51:43,920 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 1: and we think a ton of quarterback names are still

1042
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:50,239
Speaker 1: to come entering the transfer portal. I mean, there are

1043
00:51:50,280 --> 00:51:53,400
Speaker 1: several names to watch here. Now here's what I don't do,

1044
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:56,480
Speaker 1: you guys, know, I don't sit here and predict kids

1045
00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:58,879
Speaker 1: to go into the portal. I don't tell them where

1046
00:51:58,880 --> 00:52:00,080
Speaker 1: they should go once they get in the port Well,

1047
00:52:00,080 --> 00:52:01,600
Speaker 1: I don't do any of that. But what I will

1048
00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:05,640
Speaker 1: do is I will say, given that Jonathan Smith just

1049
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:10,800
Speaker 1: left Oregon State, everybody's watching DJ you and everyone's watching

1050
00:52:10,840 --> 00:52:12,920
Speaker 1: Aidan Childs. That's a former four star kid out there.

1051
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:16,600
Speaker 1: It's only natural when you have coaching turnover to wonder

1052
00:52:16,640 --> 00:52:17,560
Speaker 1: are they going to stay?

1053
00:52:17,920 --> 00:52:19,480
Speaker 2: Are they going to explore other options?

1054
00:52:19,719 --> 00:52:23,080
Speaker 1: Cam Ward saw a story today about how how many

1055
00:52:23,080 --> 00:52:26,920
Speaker 1: different million plus dollar offers he's had to leave Washington State,

1056
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:31,239
Speaker 1: which is illegal, by the way, but still happening. Let's

1057
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:34,080
Speaker 1: see what happens there. I know some Oklahoma buddies I

1058
00:52:34,120 --> 00:52:37,440
Speaker 1: have have heard rumblings about Dylan Gabriel. You know, with

1059
00:52:37,560 --> 00:52:40,120
Speaker 1: Jackson Arnold sitting there. He didn't come to Oklahoma to

1060
00:52:40,160 --> 00:52:43,319
Speaker 1: sit the bench. He's really good. Well, Dylan Gabriel still

1061
00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:46,080
Speaker 1: be here next year. The Bama guys, with Jaln Milroe

1062
00:52:46,080 --> 00:52:48,560
Speaker 1: being back, Ty Simpson, where's he going to be? So

1063
00:52:48,680 --> 00:52:50,640
Speaker 1: there are a lot of names that you know, we're

1064
00:52:50,640 --> 00:52:52,799
Speaker 1: just keeping an eye on. And then if they jump

1065
00:52:52,840 --> 00:52:55,080
Speaker 1: in the portal. Obviously, twenty four seven Sports will have

1066
00:52:55,120 --> 00:52:59,640
Speaker 1: it covered. You know, when Jimba Fisher got fired and

1067
00:52:59,680 --> 00:53:02,600
Speaker 1: a lot of people talked about these disaster scenarios for

1068
00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:03,480
Speaker 1: Texas A and M.

1069
00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:05,920
Speaker 2: I don't know that it's going to be a disaster.

1070
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:09,040
Speaker 1: The disaster scenario was all the A and M players

1071
00:53:09,040 --> 00:53:11,960
Speaker 1: were going to enter the portal. Well, they hired Mike Elko,

1072
00:53:12,239 --> 00:53:15,759
Speaker 1: who most kids on that team know, and like they

1073
00:53:15,760 --> 00:53:19,080
Speaker 1: have got an nil war chest out there to do

1074
00:53:19,120 --> 00:53:20,960
Speaker 1: what it really takes to keep players, and that is

1075
00:53:21,040 --> 00:53:24,160
Speaker 1: pay them. I don't necessarily know that a ton of

1076
00:53:24,200 --> 00:53:26,080
Speaker 1: kids from A and M are going to hit the portal. Now,

1077
00:53:26,239 --> 00:53:28,759
Speaker 1: there may be some that hit the portal that Mike

1078
00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:32,080
Speaker 1: Elko doesn't really fight to keep there. Now, I'm not

1079
00:53:32,200 --> 00:53:34,200
Speaker 1: mentioning any names because I don't know any names. I'm

1080
00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:37,919
Speaker 1: just saying very generically that could happen. But I don't

1081
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:40,120
Speaker 1: know that they're going to have this like a dozen

1082
00:53:40,600 --> 00:53:43,239
Speaker 1: to eighteen kind of kids just walk out the door,

1083
00:53:43,239 --> 00:53:45,400
Speaker 1: even though they're fighting to keep them. Now, Evan Stewart's

1084
00:53:45,400 --> 00:53:48,040
Speaker 1: wanted to look at the wide receiver because there were

1085
00:53:48,080 --> 00:53:51,279
Speaker 1: tea leaves that were very easily read from space even

1086
00:53:51,320 --> 00:53:53,440
Speaker 1: before Elko got hired that he was probably on his

1087
00:53:53,440 --> 00:53:56,200
Speaker 1: way out the door. So let's keep an eye on him,

1088
00:53:56,239 --> 00:53:58,840
Speaker 1: because that would instantly be that would be an impact

1089
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:02,640
Speaker 1: number one type receiver. We happen to like Evan Stewart

1090
00:54:02,640 --> 00:54:05,239
Speaker 1: a lot here, and in the right offense, that dude

1091
00:54:05,320 --> 00:54:07,960
Speaker 1: ends up being a top draft pick. So let's see

1092
00:54:08,640 --> 00:54:12,280
Speaker 1: Matt Zenitz. Are Matt zenits Hey? Hey, are Matt Zenitt's

1093
00:54:12,280 --> 00:54:14,759
Speaker 1: here at twenty four seven Sports earlier today Crystal bald

1094
00:54:14,800 --> 00:54:18,879
Speaker 1: Max Johnson, former quarterback for A and my Crystal balld

1095
00:54:18,920 --> 00:54:22,880
Speaker 1: In to North Carolina. Hey, Drake may moving on? Maybe

1096
00:54:22,920 --> 00:54:25,719
Speaker 1: that's the replacement. Maybe that's the plug and play there,

1097
00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:28,800
Speaker 1: Let's keep an eye on that. This all is leading

1098
00:54:28,880 --> 00:54:31,520
Speaker 1: up to December fourth. So right now the eye Josh

1099
00:54:31,520 --> 00:54:33,600
Speaker 1: tells me it's Tuesday, November twenty eighth.

1100
00:54:33,880 --> 00:54:35,680
Speaker 2: December fourth, is just like.

1101
00:54:35,640 --> 00:54:38,440
Speaker 1: The alarm will go off and then two minutes later

1102
00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:42,839
Speaker 1: the dam will open and just have a rush of

1103
00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:49,479
Speaker 1: headlines and there will be transfers galore. And I think

1104
00:54:49,920 --> 00:54:53,640
Speaker 1: the twenty four seven Sports Transfer Portal show Monday, December fourth,

1105
00:54:53,680 --> 00:54:57,040
Speaker 1: coverage begins at ten am. It's so important that I

1106
00:54:57,280 --> 00:54:59,560
Speaker 1: have been told I am being pulled out of bed

1107
00:54:59,600 --> 00:55:01,480
Speaker 1: on what it is usually an off day for me,

1108
00:55:01,520 --> 00:55:04,480
Speaker 1: and even I am coming in this studio to talk

1109
00:55:04,520 --> 00:55:07,080
Speaker 1: about all the kids entering the transfer portal and some

1110
00:55:07,120 --> 00:55:10,960
Speaker 1: of the names floating around are very interesting, but it

1111
00:55:11,040 --> 00:55:13,879
Speaker 1: is not my job at this point to share those

1112
00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:17,399
Speaker 1: names with you. That will end very soon. Let's continue here.

1113
00:55:17,520 --> 00:55:18,879
Speaker 1: You know, I got a best bet by the way

1114
00:55:18,920 --> 00:55:20,319
Speaker 1: that I got to add tonight, so we got a

1115
00:55:20,320 --> 00:55:25,239
Speaker 1: lot still to get to. We've got a policy on

1116
00:55:25,320 --> 00:55:28,400
Speaker 1: the show. This is before I start the preview for

1117
00:55:28,440 --> 00:55:31,120
Speaker 1: the Big Ten game. We have a policy on Late

1118
00:55:31,200 --> 00:55:34,600
Speaker 1: Kick when it comes to predicting games where there's a

1119
00:55:34,640 --> 00:55:38,239
Speaker 1: big point spread underdog, and the rule is simply this,

1120
00:55:38,400 --> 00:55:41,239
Speaker 1: we will only do a game breakdown if we think

1121
00:55:41,280 --> 00:55:44,160
Speaker 1: there is a realistic chance the underdog could win the

1122
00:55:44,200 --> 00:55:48,239
Speaker 1: game outright, and at that point, the game prediction consists

1123
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:51,560
Speaker 1: of what would have to happen for the underdog to win.

1124
00:55:51,680 --> 00:55:53,000
Speaker 2: It's not a normal prediction.

1125
00:55:53,080 --> 00:55:59,360
Speaker 1: In other words, Having said that, Michigan plays in the

1126
00:55:59,360 --> 00:56:02,760
Speaker 1: Big Ten Champampionship game this Saturday night, eight o'clock on Fox.

1127
00:56:02,800 --> 00:56:09,480
Speaker 1: They play against Iowa. Pointspread is astronomical currently at FanDuel,

1128
00:56:09,760 --> 00:56:11,919
Speaker 1: if you want to bet Michigan, you got to lay

1129
00:56:11,920 --> 00:56:18,080
Speaker 1: twenty three and a half. I again, I can't believe

1130
00:56:18,120 --> 00:56:20,160
Speaker 1: these are real words that are going to come out

1131
00:56:20,160 --> 00:56:23,000
Speaker 1: of my mouth, and I need to say them very

1132
00:56:23,040 --> 00:56:24,920
Speaker 1: slowly so that you can process this.

1133
00:56:25,520 --> 00:56:26,680
Speaker 2: There is a prop.

1134
00:56:26,480 --> 00:56:34,080
Speaker 1: Bet for first half and second half individual team scoring. Okay,

1135
00:56:34,120 --> 00:56:37,120
Speaker 1: so you're just betting how many points a team will

1136
00:56:37,120 --> 00:56:40,920
Speaker 1: score and the over under in the first half and

1137
00:56:41,040 --> 00:56:44,040
Speaker 1: second half. Like each half, you can bet the over

1138
00:56:44,200 --> 00:56:48,400
Speaker 1: under for Iowa's team scoring is zero point five points,

1139
00:56:49,040 --> 00:56:52,240
Speaker 1: so you are literally betting on whether they'll be shut

1140
00:56:52,280 --> 00:56:56,880
Speaker 1: out or not. That's how bad they are offensively. So

1141
00:56:57,000 --> 00:56:59,719
Speaker 1: with that in mind, let's set the exciting scene for

1142
00:56:59,760 --> 00:57:01,840
Speaker 1: the Big Ten Championship game. I am not going to

1143
00:57:01,840 --> 00:57:04,799
Speaker 1: insult your intelligence. Michigan's gonna win this thing. I think

1144
00:57:04,840 --> 00:57:08,960
Speaker 1: they'll win it handily. But if the disaster scenario were

1145
00:57:08,960 --> 00:57:10,840
Speaker 1: to unfold, how would it happen?

1146
00:57:10,840 --> 00:57:12,040
Speaker 2: How would Iowall pull this off?

1147
00:57:12,080 --> 00:57:14,719
Speaker 1: Well, obviously we're gonna need multiple turnovers, but it's not

1148
00:57:14,760 --> 00:57:18,560
Speaker 1: even just that they need multiple turnovers in which they

1149
00:57:18,640 --> 00:57:23,240
Speaker 1: score on the play. They've got to get Michigan into

1150
00:57:23,400 --> 00:57:26,680
Speaker 1: enough third and longs to where Michigan is hopefully dumb

1151
00:57:26,760 --> 00:57:29,520
Speaker 1: enough to take some offensive risks that they don't really

1152
00:57:29,560 --> 00:57:32,480
Speaker 1: need to because once they score fourteen or seventeen, it's

1153
00:57:32,520 --> 00:57:33,040
Speaker 1: a rap.

1154
00:57:33,680 --> 00:57:34,680
Speaker 2: May not need that many.

1155
00:57:35,360 --> 00:57:36,959
Speaker 1: But if Michigan will put the ball in the air,

1156
00:57:37,360 --> 00:57:40,480
Speaker 1: Like I'm saying a lot of this stuff, and I'm

1157
00:57:40,520 --> 00:57:45,240
Speaker 1: not joking, Iowa's best scoring opportunities are when Michigan has

1158
00:57:45,280 --> 00:57:48,640
Speaker 1: the ball, and that's just a fact that even Iowa

1159
00:57:48,720 --> 00:57:51,160
Speaker 1: fans know. So they got to have Michigan put ball

1160
00:57:51,160 --> 00:57:53,320
Speaker 1: in the air and that point, they got to be

1161
00:57:53,320 --> 00:57:55,520
Speaker 1: the ones to catch it and score. Because that brings

1162
00:57:55,560 --> 00:57:58,800
Speaker 1: me to point number two. Non offensive points are the

1163
00:57:58,840 --> 00:58:01,840
Speaker 1: only way that i wins this game. They've got to

1164
00:58:01,920 --> 00:58:06,840
Speaker 1: score defensively, point blank. They forget field position. They got

1165
00:58:06,880 --> 00:58:10,600
Speaker 1: to score defensively. They've got to score on special teams.

1166
00:58:11,360 --> 00:58:14,360
Speaker 1: And then they've got to melt the game and they

1167
00:58:14,400 --> 00:58:17,200
Speaker 1: got to empty the bag. There's no reason to be

1168
00:58:17,280 --> 00:58:19,960
Speaker 1: careful here. Okay, no one cares if you get blown

1169
00:58:19,960 --> 00:58:23,280
Speaker 1: out by Michigan. You get blown out, please go down swinging,

1170
00:58:23,360 --> 00:58:26,560
Speaker 1: whatever that means in Iowa offensive terms. Please go down

1171
00:58:26,600 --> 00:58:28,760
Speaker 1: swinging like empty the bag.

1172
00:58:28,920 --> 00:58:29,600
Speaker 2: Maybe you got a.

1173
00:58:29,560 --> 00:58:33,120
Speaker 1: Little half back reverse you got a full back pass,

1174
00:58:33,520 --> 00:58:36,560
Speaker 1: empty it. What's the worst that can happen? They beat you,

1175
00:58:36,600 --> 00:58:39,760
Speaker 1: They're going to anyway. You might as well try some things.

1176
00:58:40,080 --> 00:58:42,440
Speaker 1: And the other part, the melting the game part, is

1177
00:58:43,720 --> 00:58:44,960
Speaker 1: they are good defensively.

1178
00:58:45,200 --> 00:58:46,480
Speaker 2: I was very good defensively.

1179
00:58:46,920 --> 00:58:50,120
Speaker 1: And maybe instead of Michigan getting eleven drives, maybe they

1180
00:58:50,160 --> 00:58:54,080
Speaker 1: get eight drives. And you know, the less opportunities that

1181
00:58:54,160 --> 00:58:56,920
Speaker 1: a superior team has to hold the ball, the greater

1182
00:58:57,040 --> 00:59:00,720
Speaker 1: the variance and potential outcome. I've tried, Colin. Let's take

1183
00:59:00,760 --> 00:59:03,480
Speaker 1: a look at what the model thinks. FanDuel has Michigan

1184
00:59:03,480 --> 00:59:05,240
Speaker 1: minus twenty three and a half. I do have a

1185
00:59:05,400 --> 00:59:09,080
Speaker 1: ray of good news here. The model only has Michigan

1186
00:59:09,160 --> 00:59:12,120
Speaker 1: winning by twenty two and a half. I think Michigan

1187
00:59:12,200 --> 00:59:15,160
Speaker 1: can be very comfortable if they get fourteen points on

1188
00:59:15,160 --> 00:59:18,120
Speaker 1: the board, and at that point you just cruise the

1189
00:59:18,200 --> 00:59:18,800
Speaker 1: over unders.

1190
00:59:18,840 --> 00:59:20,120
Speaker 2: Thirty four and a half in the game.

1191
00:59:20,640 --> 00:59:23,960
Speaker 1: Just ridiculous when you have a top five team in

1192
00:59:24,000 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 1: a game and the totals thirty four and a half.

1193
00:59:26,720 --> 00:59:31,280
Speaker 1: But Iowa has completely redefined what's possible in all the

1194
00:59:31,280 --> 00:59:33,840
Speaker 1: wrong ways in college football games this year. I'm taking

1195
00:59:34,000 --> 00:59:37,040
Speaker 1: Michigan to win. I am taking Iowa to cover. Iowa

1196
00:59:37,120 --> 00:59:39,040
Speaker 1: may not need to score a point to cover in

1197
00:59:39,080 --> 00:59:43,200
Speaker 1: the game. So there is a twenty to nothing win

1198
00:59:43,400 --> 00:59:45,320
Speaker 1: in the cars, there's a twenty three to nothing win

1199
00:59:45,560 --> 00:59:46,960
Speaker 1: for Michigan in the cards.

1200
00:59:47,200 --> 00:59:48,800
Speaker 2: That's as good as I can do. I'm sorry.

1201
00:59:49,160 --> 00:59:53,320
Speaker 1: Rio Dejanio, Brazil is tuned in Concord, North Carolina, and

1202
00:59:53,480 --> 00:59:54,320
Speaker 1: all been in New York.

1203
00:59:54,320 --> 00:59:56,160
Speaker 2: They're watching us up there. We appreciate that.

1204
00:59:56,960 --> 01:00:01,120
Speaker 1: If you do have interest in in any of the

1205
01:00:01,240 --> 01:00:04,160
Speaker 1: wagers I just talked about, FanDuel is the place.

1206
01:00:03,960 --> 01:00:05,240
Speaker 2: For you now.

1207
01:00:05,360 --> 01:00:07,919
Speaker 1: I told you about the deal that we have with them,

1208
01:00:08,040 --> 01:00:11,720
Speaker 1: where if you bet five dollars on any money line

1209
01:00:11,720 --> 01:00:14,040
Speaker 1: and you win, you get one hundred and fifty in

1210
01:00:14,120 --> 01:00:16,120
Speaker 1: bonus cash. You know what I'd do if I were you,

1211
01:00:17,040 --> 01:00:19,920
Speaker 1: if they offered me a money line bet on Michigan,

1212
01:00:20,040 --> 01:00:22,520
Speaker 1: I don't care how astronomical it is. I'd go bet

1213
01:00:22,560 --> 01:00:24,840
Speaker 1: five bucks on it, I'd win, and I'd get one

1214
01:00:24,880 --> 01:00:26,600
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty in bonus bets.

1215
01:00:27,160 --> 01:00:27,840
Speaker 2: Easy peasy.

1216
01:00:28,080 --> 01:00:31,200
Speaker 1: There's no rule. It's a it's not a moneyline favorite

1217
01:00:31,280 --> 01:00:34,080
Speaker 1: of only a certain amount. Go bet the biggest favorite

1218
01:00:34,080 --> 01:00:36,000
Speaker 1: you can find on the money line and get those

1219
01:00:36,000 --> 01:00:39,240
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty coins back your way. If you

1220
01:00:39,320 --> 01:00:41,840
Speaker 1: are so interested, you can find the link right here

1221
01:00:41,880 --> 01:00:43,960
Speaker 1: in the show description. We've made it easy so you

1222
01:00:43,960 --> 01:00:47,120
Speaker 1: don't have to type in, you know, fourteen little backslashes.

1223
01:00:48,160 --> 01:00:48,600
Speaker 2: FanDuel.

1224
01:00:48,640 --> 01:00:52,360
Speaker 1: Look, they power the Ramannudle Express. Yet another winning season

1225
01:00:52,760 --> 01:00:56,680
Speaker 1: we've won. This will be our seventh consecutive winning year

1226
01:00:56,840 --> 01:01:02,600
Speaker 1: on the Ramanudal Express. And still they hate not FanDuel,

1227
01:01:02,640 --> 01:01:05,600
Speaker 1: but the haters. Still they hate romin It'll express brought

1228
01:01:05,600 --> 01:01:07,520
Speaker 1: to you by them. But also every one of our

1229
01:01:07,560 --> 01:01:10,160
Speaker 1: odds on our show now are powered by FanDuel. And

1230
01:01:10,280 --> 01:01:12,360
Speaker 1: those are good folks, man like, they watch the show,

1231
01:01:12,440 --> 01:01:15,440
Speaker 1: they know the show, they are of us. So that

1232
01:01:15,600 --> 01:01:19,240
Speaker 1: relationship formed because some of the high ups at FanDuel

1233
01:01:19,280 --> 01:01:23,919
Speaker 1: watched the show, and that's usually how the relationships formed.

1234
01:01:23,920 --> 01:01:25,400
Speaker 1: That's the way we got Academy, That's the way we

1235
01:01:25,440 --> 01:01:28,160
Speaker 1: got FanDuel, and frankly, that's why we don't do business

1236
01:01:28,240 --> 01:01:30,000
Speaker 1: with a lot of other companies because there is no

1237
01:01:30,400 --> 01:01:31,760
Speaker 1: personal relationship there.

1238
01:01:32,200 --> 01:01:33,640
Speaker 2: So I appreciate that.

1239
01:01:33,640 --> 01:01:36,600
Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or over and present in select states.

1240
01:01:36,800 --> 01:01:39,760
Speaker 1: FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an

1241
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1242
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1243
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Speaker 1: non withdrawable. Bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt.

1244
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Speaker 1: oh Io, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia. Call one eight hundred,

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Speaker 1: next step or text next step to five three three

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Speaker 1: backslash chat in Connecticut one eight hundred and nine with

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Speaker 1: it in Indiana one eight hundred five two two forty

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1254
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1255
01:02:34,480 --> 01:02:37,680
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1256
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Speaker 1: eight hundred five two two forty seven hundred In Wyoming,

1257
01:02:41,240 --> 01:02:45,400
Speaker 1: Hope is here. Visit gambling Helpline MA dot org or

1258
01:02:45,440 --> 01:02:48,760
Speaker 1: call eight hundred three two seven fifty fifty for twenty

1259
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Speaker 1: four seven support in Massachusetts or call one eight seven

1260
01:02:51,880 --> 01:02:52,840
Speaker 1: seven eight.

1261
01:02:52,640 --> 01:02:55,720
Speaker 2: Hope dash n Y or text hope.

1262
01:02:55,520 --> 01:02:59,400
Speaker 1: N why in New York. Okay, speaking of which, I

1263
01:02:59,480 --> 01:03:00,440
Speaker 1: have to add one.

1264
01:03:00,320 --> 01:03:03,400
Speaker 2: More best bet, and I forgot to write it down here. Apologies.

1265
01:03:04,680 --> 01:03:07,520
Speaker 1: We already have SMU plus four and a half. We've

1266
01:03:07,560 --> 01:03:09,560
Speaker 1: locked that when in that one was on Sunday they

1267
01:03:09,560 --> 01:03:14,040
Speaker 1: play Tulane in the That's when is that game, Jesse?

1268
01:03:14,160 --> 01:03:16,880
Speaker 1: It's the American Championship game. I can't remember when it

1269
01:03:16,920 --> 01:03:20,520
Speaker 1: is though. Anyway, it's this weekend at some point. Let's

1270
01:03:20,520 --> 01:03:22,840
Speaker 1: take a look at the other added best bet. You know,

1271
01:03:22,960 --> 01:03:25,000
Speaker 1: if I'm sitting here looking at Alabama plus six and

1272
01:03:25,040 --> 01:03:26,440
Speaker 1: a half and I'm picking them to win the game,

1273
01:03:26,440 --> 01:03:30,280
Speaker 1: out right, there's value. There's serious value on Alabama. So

1274
01:03:30,280 --> 01:03:32,400
Speaker 1: we're putting Bama plus six and a half on the

1275
01:03:32,400 --> 01:03:35,280
Speaker 1: board along with SMU. And now, look, it's conference title week,

1276
01:03:35,520 --> 01:03:37,560
Speaker 1: so I'm not gonna have ten or fifteen bets here.

1277
01:03:37,920 --> 01:03:40,560
Speaker 1: But that doesn't mean bet bigger on these games. It

1278
01:03:40,560 --> 01:03:42,760
Speaker 1: means bet the exact same amount across the board that

1279
01:03:42,760 --> 01:03:45,520
Speaker 1: we've been betting all year. SMU plus four and a

1280
01:03:45,560 --> 01:03:47,840
Speaker 1: half BAMA plus six and a half. Those are the

1281
01:03:47,880 --> 01:03:50,440
Speaker 1: numbers that we are on so far. We will be

1282
01:03:50,520 --> 01:03:53,480
Speaker 1: back here Thursday night, same time. Oh, the SMU game

1283
01:03:53,560 --> 01:03:56,680
Speaker 1: is four o'clock Saturday, the exact same time as the

1284
01:03:56,720 --> 01:03:57,560
Speaker 1: SEC title game.

1285
01:03:57,600 --> 01:04:00,560
Speaker 2: Thank you, Jesse, and the prompter was used after all tonight.

1286
01:04:00,800 --> 01:04:02,400
Speaker 2: All right, I'm out of here. We'll be back here

1287
01:04:02,400 --> 01:04:03,400
Speaker 2: Thursday night, same time.

1288
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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following on Instagram at late Kickjosh, because

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Speaker 1: if we're doing two cities and about the span of

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Speaker 1: twelve hours Friday and Saturday, there will be some very

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Speaker 1: interesting content in the old ig story until Thursday night.

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Speaker 1: For producer Jesse, For director Colin, I'm Josh Bate. Take care,

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Speaker 1: have a great rist of your evening.

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