1 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:06,480 Speaker 1: One of the President's most senior economic advisors is Brian D's, 2 00:00:06,519 --> 00:00:09,240 Speaker 1: who heads the National Economic Council at the White House. 3 00:00:09,520 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: I recently had a chance to sit down with Brian 4 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:14,280 Speaker 1: to talk about interest rates, inflation, and the general state 5 00:00:14,320 --> 00:00:16,720 Speaker 1: of the economy in the United States and around the world. 6 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:20,080 Speaker 1: So let me ask you the first and most important question, 7 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 1: Are we going to go into a recession anytime in 8 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 1: their foreseeable future? Well, thank you for having me, And 9 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:28,640 Speaker 1: you know, I thought we were going to start on 10 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 1: the uh rosie. Nope, but I should have expected nothing less. 11 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:34,760 Speaker 1: I'll join this. I thank you, thank you for having me, 12 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 1: and thank you for putting this together. Um, we are, 13 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:43,720 Speaker 1: no doubt in uncertain times. But I think that if 14 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:49,159 Speaker 1: you look at the US economy my perspective, the most 15 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 1: striking feature of the US economy right now is resilience. 16 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:57,280 Speaker 1: The resilience of households and consumer balance sheets, resilience of 17 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 1: business and business investment, and globe the resilience of the 18 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:05,840 Speaker 1: US economy in in certain global environment. So, UM, we're 19 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 1: certainly in a complicated and in many ways unprecedented transition, 20 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:12,319 Speaker 1: but I think that there's every reason to have a 21 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 1: lot of confidence in the US position in the context 22 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 1: of a globally uncertain environment. I'll take that as maybe 23 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:22,680 Speaker 1: you don't know. Well, let me ask you easier question. Please, 24 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:26,400 Speaker 1: all right, I'll take any how you want to get 25 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:28,319 Speaker 1: think England is and you think the UK is in 26 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 1: a in a recession, well, uh, I think the situation 27 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 1: in Europe in the UK is very very difficult right now. 28 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:41,960 Speaker 1: They face a very difficult situation. Uh. And they are 29 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 1: um as I was saying, in terms of the US position, 30 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:50,279 Speaker 1: they're significantly more exposed to the energy price volatility UM. 31 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 1: And they don't have some of the incumbent strengths that 32 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 1: we have here economically. So I think it is it 33 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:00,080 Speaker 1: is and is going to be a tough puer it 34 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 1: for the UK and for the European Union. Normally in 35 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 1: the United States, when you cut taxes, uh, it's design 36 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 1: to stimulate the economy, and that's what happened in Britain. 37 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 1: They now cutting taxes to stimulate the economy. But it's 38 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 1: had a seems a unfortunate impact on the British economy. 39 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:18,400 Speaker 1: Stock markets going down, and people are are very upset 40 00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:22,120 Speaker 1: about it, or you're surprised about that. I wasn't surprised 41 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 1: with the market reaction. You know, I think that if we, uh, 42 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 1: you have to any economic policy has to be in 43 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 1: the context of the situation that we are in and 44 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 1: in a monetary tightening cycle like this. Uh. The challenge 45 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:38,400 Speaker 1: with you know that that that policy aperture is it 46 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 1: just puts the uh, it puts the monetary authority in 47 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 1: a position of potentially having to move even tighter. I 48 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 1: think that that's what you saw in the reaction. And also, 49 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:51,240 Speaker 1: you know, I would say it is important, particularly important 50 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 1: to maintain a focus on fiscal prudence, fiscal discipline. It 51 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 1: is certainly something that we have been focused on here 52 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:00,639 Speaker 1: and uh, you know, the markets take notice. So let's 53 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 1: talk about another easy subject. Inflation. Inflation is as high 54 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 1: as it's been since I was in government. I managed 55 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:09,160 Speaker 1: to get a higher rate than you've gotten so far. 56 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 1: But um, I wanted to know, in your view, is 57 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 1: inflation now coming down a bit as a result of 58 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 1: the FEDS hiking and do you expect the Fed continue 59 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 1: to hike U in the November and December fo MC meetings. Well, 60 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 1: the goodness is the second part of your question is 61 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:29,800 Speaker 1: the easy one, as you know, because part of respecting 62 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:31,800 Speaker 1: the independence of the FED is leaving to this if 63 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 1: you expect, look, the market expects that, and and okay, 64 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 1: have any wisdom beyond that? I think, Uh. But but 65 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 1: if you look at most of the data points over 66 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 1: the course the last couple of months, we've certainly seen 67 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 1: headline inflation on a month over month basis slow dramatically. Basically, 68 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:55,080 Speaker 1: it's been flat for the last couple of months. That's 69 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: a function of the fact that we've seen energy prices 70 00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 1: come down gas prices, uh, and that's offset price increases elsewhere. 71 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 1: But I think if you look broadly across the economy, 72 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 1: you are seeing a number of places where you're seeing 73 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 1: the shift. And this transition happened in in real time. 74 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 1: Commodity prices have have come off. You've seen that in 75 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:17,840 Speaker 1: a number of the of durable goods segments. And at 76 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 1: the same time, as you know that this this process 77 00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 1: operates with some lags. And so that's why even as 78 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 1: you look over the course of the last couple of months, 79 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 1: you've got to really, even at a moment of heightened 80 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:34,760 Speaker 1: uncertainty that we are in right now, have to do 81 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 1: whatever we can to lift up from individual monthly data 82 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 1: points Now, when I went to college many years ago, 83 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:42,520 Speaker 1: the standard textbook said that inflation was on average three 84 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 1: or four percent a year. That was relatively normal. For 85 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 1: the last twenty five years, we've had two percent inflation, 86 00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 1: So we've gotten used to two percent inflation. My children 87 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:53,720 Speaker 1: have never seen higher inflation. But the FED now says 88 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:55,920 Speaker 1: they want to get inflation back to two percent, which 89 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 1: is what it was. But why why not three or 90 00:04:58,160 --> 00:04:59,840 Speaker 1: four percent? Is why does two percent have to be 91 00:04:59,880 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 1: a goal? And how hard is it going to be 92 00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:04,040 Speaker 1: to get down the two percent without putting unemployment up 93 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:06,560 Speaker 1: the six percent or high higher. You know, A big 94 00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 1: part of inflation is expectations. UH. And the risk with 95 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:17,479 Speaker 1: inflation is not only the immediate impact on you know, 96 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 1: purchasing power, but also the risk that expectations get on 97 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: more get un anchored, and then it gets much more 98 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:28,680 Speaker 1: difficult to bring inflation down. So when you ask the 99 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 1: question about bringing down to a level, I think one 100 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: of the most important questions is is the is the 101 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:38,039 Speaker 1: is the shape of policy focused on making sure that 102 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:40,800 Speaker 1: we don't lose control of those expectations. That's obviously something 103 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 1: that the FED keeps a close eye on. UH. And 104 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:48,480 Speaker 1: so you know to your your question of of the process, Look, 105 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:54,120 Speaker 1: I am fundamentally optimistic about the American economy, and I'm 106 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 1: optimistic that we can navigate through this transition in a 107 00:05:56,920 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 1: way where we come out of this as a country 108 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:01,840 Speaker 1: and as an economy in a stronger position than when 109 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:05,479 Speaker 1: the pandemic hit. So so yeah, at core, I do 110 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 1: believe that that's that's There's there's no no certainty in 111 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 1: any way or no no way inevitable that we are 112 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 1: you know, we're going into a down turn for people 113 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:18,600 Speaker 1: live in Washington. Politicians, is it more difficult when unemployment 114 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 1: is going up or when inflation is going up? Inflation 115 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 1: affects everybody. Unemployment doesn't affect everybody, So how do you 116 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:27,160 Speaker 1: weigh the political trade off between unemployment going up and 117 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:30,159 Speaker 1: inflation going up? Which is more difficult for politicians or 118 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 1: for let's say, the administration. There's no question that inflation 119 00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:38,720 Speaker 1: affects everybody, and it affects the if it affects the psyche. 120 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 1: And I think that when it it affects a sense, 121 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:46,919 Speaker 1: I think also of people's sentiment and a sense in 122 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 1: which things are you know, um uh in or out 123 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:51,840 Speaker 1: of out of control? And and we see that in 124 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 1: consumer sentiment data. At the same time, we also, as 125 00:06:57,160 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 1: you asked the question about on the political side, as 126 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:03,160 Speaker 1: economic policymakers, need to recognize that the way that economists 127 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 1: think about inflation and the way that Americans think about 128 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 1: inflation often differs. That we have this idea of headline 129 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 1: inflation versus core, and economists say, really should pay less 130 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 1: attention to headline because it has food and gas. You 131 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 1: asked to typical people what inflation is, it's food and gas, 132 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 1: and so you know, understanding the you know, the interplay 133 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:23,800 Speaker 1: between the economics and the politics of inflation is is 134 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 1: something that we haven't been as used to. So let 135 00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 1: me go back to the n a C. And NFC 136 00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:31,560 Speaker 1: was started under UM President Clinton and Bob Rubin was 137 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 1: the first person to hold that job. Can you explain 138 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 1: to people what it actually does and what the NBC 139 00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:39,679 Speaker 1: does stay to day when, for example, who's in the NBC, 140 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 1: who's only the n AC What is your job actually 141 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 1: to do? So? UM, the National Economic Council are the job, 142 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 1: the mandate, the mission of the organization is to coordinate 143 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 1: economic policy across the executive branch and across the cabinet 144 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 1: to make sure that the President is getting the benefit 145 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:03,600 Speaker 1: of UH making decisions of his entire economic cabinet, and 146 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 1: also that the econic cabinet is getting clear direction from 147 00:08:06,560 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 1: the President as well, so that that two ways. So 148 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:13,520 Speaker 1: it's a coordination function UH. On the NBC itself are 149 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 1: all of the relevant cabinet members, the sort of core 150 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 1: Economic team o MB Council, Economic Advisor's, Treasury, but also 151 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 1: Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Commerce, my team. The NBC 152 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 1: team is a small team within the White House. That 153 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 1: is our job is to do that coordination across the 154 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 1: range of economic policiation. Now, you were the deputy in 155 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 1: the Obama administration of the ANEC, and now you're the director. 156 00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:40,960 Speaker 1: Which NBC worked better the Obama administration one or the 157 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:43,440 Speaker 1: Biden one? Well, on the issues that I worked on 158 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 1: in the Obama administration, it worked very very well. And 159 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:49,680 Speaker 1: the current UH ANYC works very well as well. So 160 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 1: it's the subset of the ones I didn't work on. Okay, 161 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:53,680 Speaker 1: let's talk about your own background for a moment. I 162 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:57,080 Speaker 1: mentioned before you grew up in Boston area, UM, and 163 00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:01,960 Speaker 1: what did your family do? Were they in business, academics, politics, 164 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:06,920 Speaker 1: important things like private equity that they do that. Uh. 165 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:10,199 Speaker 1: My father is an educator, he teaches, uh. And my 166 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:14,560 Speaker 1: mother is a civil engineer by training and worked as 167 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:18,080 Speaker 1: an environmental engineer. Okay, So you went to Middlebury and 168 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 1: what did you study there? I studied political science and economics, uh, 169 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 1: internet within the international focus. Okay. And after you graduated, 170 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:28,160 Speaker 1: what did you do? Then? I came here to d 171 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 1: C on a fellowship to the Carnegian down Itt for 172 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 1: International Peace, and I was doing uh, international economics, international 173 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:38,319 Speaker 1: economic development. I had spent the better part of a 174 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 1: year in Argentina right before the collapse there. Became fascinated 175 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 1: with trade and development issues, and so I spent Uh. 176 00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:49,400 Speaker 1: I came here to d C and the Argentine and 177 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:53,200 Speaker 1: economy collapse while you were there, No, right after I left, okay, 178 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 1: right after Okay, you got correlation and causation, all right. 179 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:59,320 Speaker 1: So then you came back to Washington to do what? So? 180 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:04,400 Speaker 1: So I I stayed here? I uh, Um, I worked. 181 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:07,559 Speaker 1: I sort of shifted from from international policy, economic policy, 182 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 1: domestic policy. Then I went to law school, left e C, 183 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 1: and I came back here. We went to law school 184 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 1: to be a lawyer or not. I went to law 185 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:18,120 Speaker 1: school to UH to know not to be a lawyer, 186 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:20,959 Speaker 1: but because because I was fascinated. As I was working 187 00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 1: on the economic war economic elements, it became clear that 188 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 1: most of policy is actually understanding law um in different ways. 189 00:10:29,679 --> 00:10:34,080 Speaker 1: And so I went. I went to I went with 190 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:35,959 Speaker 1: the idea that I would continue to work in policy. 191 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 1: But then so you didn't want to practice law ever, 192 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 1: wasn't my objective? Okay, So how did you get involved 193 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:45,040 Speaker 1: with the Obama administration? Did you volunteer in the campaign 194 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:46,880 Speaker 1: or how did you get involved in the campaign or 195 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:52,600 Speaker 1: the administration? So I started working on the two thousand 196 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:56,440 Speaker 1: seven two thousand new campaign, actually worked for UH I 197 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:59,959 Speaker 1: had I had the most important experience. I campaigned again 198 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:04,480 Speaker 1: camp candidate Obama for about nine months, working for Senator 199 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:08,320 Speaker 1: Clinton Secretary Clinton UH and then after they lost, I 200 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 1: was fortunate enough to then join the Obama campaign in 201 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 1: campaign from what did then Senator Omama say about that? 202 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 1: The good news was I was junior enough in the 203 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:22,640 Speaker 1: campaign and the Senator I don't think particularly aware of 204 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:26,000 Speaker 1: that of my transition to his. So he got elected, 205 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 1: and then you got this position as a special assistant 206 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 1: the President of Economic policy. And what was the biggest 207 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:35,760 Speaker 1: thing that you accomplished during the Obama administration in your view, 208 00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:39,400 Speaker 1: My first project upon coming into government was to work 209 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 1: as part of the team that did the restructuring of 210 00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:45,040 Speaker 1: General Motives and Chrysler as well as the finance companies 211 00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 1: UM as well. And so that was basically from you 212 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:52,680 Speaker 1: will all many of you will recall November December of 213 00:11:52,720 --> 00:11:56,200 Speaker 1: two thousand eight right through to the summer of two 214 00:11:56,200 --> 00:12:00,480 Speaker 1: thousand nine. That was that was my over overriding. So 215 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:04,160 Speaker 1: after the Obama administration, you join the dark side of 216 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 1: money management and you work for black Rock, but in 217 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:10,319 Speaker 1: charge of global sustainability. So what does that really mean? 218 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 1: What were you doing at black Rock? So two things. 219 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:18,760 Speaker 1: One was trying to uh actually do uh financial research 220 00:12:18,800 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 1: to understand what are drivers of long term economic performance 221 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 1: that are uh that are financially relevant but that may 222 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 1: not be on the mind of traditional investors to you know, 223 00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:35,120 Speaker 1: give you a concrete example. One of the most uh, 224 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:40,679 Speaker 1: you know, persistent measures of financial performance uncorrelated is the 225 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:43,800 Speaker 1: rate of change at which a company brings down its 226 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 1: carbon emissions, not just the level of carbon emissions, but 227 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:49,080 Speaker 1: the rate of change of doing stuff. And you know, 228 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:50,840 Speaker 1: we did a lot of research around that to to 229 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 1: find that that's that is in part because it is 230 00:12:54,320 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 1: an uncorrelated UH measure of operational performance. Better management team 231 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:03,760 Speaker 1: is actually better manage against that, and so that becomes 232 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 1: the kind of thing that you can invest invest against. 233 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 1: But it also expands the universe of what investors are 234 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:12,160 Speaker 1: thinking about. So when President Biden was starting to run 235 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 1: for president, you knew him when he was vice president. 236 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:16,839 Speaker 1: You're in the bomb administration. Did you support him? Where 237 00:13:16,880 --> 00:13:20,520 Speaker 1: you work in the campaign for UM then Vice President Biden? 238 00:13:20,679 --> 00:13:25,760 Speaker 1: Or did you work for somebody else? I was for 239 00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:27,760 Speaker 1: for for for us of that time, I was I 240 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:30,599 Speaker 1: was busy. I had a job at a family I 241 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 1: would any time that, any time anyone called, I would offer. 242 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 1: So when did you actually get involved with the Biden people? 243 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:38,560 Speaker 1: Wasn't after you won the election? Then they asked you 244 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:41,520 Speaker 1: to help with the transition. So I did some work 245 00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:45,240 Speaker 1: in volunteering during to help on the developing some elements 246 00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 1: of the platform during that came together in sort of 247 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 1: his his his general election economic policy. White House staff 248 00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:58,959 Speaker 1: jobs are notoriously long houred and you have two little children, So, um, 249 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 1: how do you manage your time? And how come you 250 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 1: have no gray hair as a result of working these 251 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:09,680 Speaker 1: long hours in two administrations. If you if the camera 252 00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:13,319 Speaker 1: gets close enough, you'll see some uh I Uh, it's 253 00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 1: it's a it's a it's a it's a constant challenge, 254 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 1: and it's it's I don't have I don't have uh 255 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 1: particular wisdom or inside into how to answer it other 256 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 1: than you know, needing to be extremely efficient with the 257 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 1: time that you have, higher great staff and build a 258 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:33,200 Speaker 1: great team. Uh. There's I've got an extraordinary uh an 259 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 1: ec team and core team inside the White House, without 260 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 1: which I wouldn't be able to do this. And also 261 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:45,120 Speaker 1: but it also takes a um an understanding family because 262 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 1: no matter how good you are at prioritization, time management, 263 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:52,600 Speaker 1: and productivity with your own time, there was always, uh, 264 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 1: there was always something that happens and always something that 265 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 1: comes up. Your children are young. Um, so you go 266 00:14:57,280 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 1: to PTA meetings and people give you economic advice PTA meetings, 267 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 1: so they kind of say, I have an idea for 268 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:05,880 Speaker 1: you when and fighting inflation? Has that ever happened? People 269 00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 1: are extraordinarily generous with their advice. I suppose uh, you know, 270 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:13,480 Speaker 1: somebody wants to write a book about you and so 271 00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 1: here's what what would you say that you feel you've 272 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:18,240 Speaker 1: accomplished or what would you like to have as your legacy. 273 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:21,280 Speaker 1: I'm just I'm reflecting on your question and how boring 274 00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:23,360 Speaker 1: a book it would be. Uh. I guess I would 275 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:26,320 Speaker 1: say two things. One is, I think that we are 276 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:31,200 Speaker 1: in a position where we could actually demonstrate that for 277 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:35,600 Speaker 1: the United States, doing dedicated public investment over the long 278 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:41,200 Speaker 1: term in areas of high productivity research, semiconductors, infrastructure, clean 279 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 1: energy manufacturing. Showing that we can actually do that in 280 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 1: a way that changes the trajectory of the economy is 281 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:52,560 Speaker 1: something that I would love to be part of demonstrating 282 00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 1: and part of associating. The second thing for me is 283 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:57,560 Speaker 1: I think that one thing that I have tried to 284 00:15:57,560 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 1: do and that I think we have tried to do, 285 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 1: is to say that gonna have an economic policy where 286 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 1: accelerating the clean energy transition is at the core of 287 00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 1: our economic policy. It's not that we have an economic 288 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:09,520 Speaker 1: strategy and then we think about climate change and clean 289 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 1: energy policy. It's actually at the core. I think we 290 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,040 Speaker 1: are doing that effectively doing that, and that's certainly something 291 00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 1: that I hope sustains across time. What is your career 292 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 1: advice about how best to prepare for this kind of job. 293 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:24,400 Speaker 1: I would say a couple of things. One is, um, 294 00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 1: I can't encourage strongly enough people anybody who has any 295 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 1: inkling towards public service to run toward it and u 296 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:33,000 Speaker 1: and engage in it. It's incredibly important at this point 297 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:37,280 Speaker 1: in our country right now too, for more people to serve. 298 00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 1: I think the second is, particularly if if you're interested 299 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:44,160 Speaker 1: in getting into policies, then probably elements of that that 300 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 1: that that are also true in the private sector, to 301 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 1: which is you know, be humble, be willing to work 302 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:54,040 Speaker 1: a lot, and be willing to both not have any 303 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 1: expectation or sense of entitlement, but also uh have a 304 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 1: lot of aspiration and willing to step to the table. 305 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:03,280 Speaker 1: So recently we had the an act pass called the 306 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:06,360 Speaker 1: Inflation Reduction Act. I mean, who came up with that name? 307 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:10,440 Speaker 1: Really it's a great name, um I guess so, But 308 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 1: but you really think it's going to reduce inflation? It 309 00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 1: seemed like it was spending a lot of money, and 310 00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:16,239 Speaker 1: how is the inflation going to be reduced by that? 311 00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:20,880 Speaker 1: See it's because of the Inflation Reduction Act. Uh So 312 00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 1: joking aside, I actually think that it's UH. It's it 313 00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:27,040 Speaker 1: is an appropriate name and UH it goes to the 314 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,040 Speaker 1: it goes to the structure of of UH. If if 315 00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:31,640 Speaker 1: I could say that in a in a walkie way, 316 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:34,159 Speaker 1: the role of fiscal policy in a period of of 317 00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:37,080 Speaker 1: monetary tightening. What you want to do is you want 318 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 1: to pro you want to take measures that will lower 319 00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:43,760 Speaker 1: costs for individuals and do it in a way that 320 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:46,240 Speaker 1: lowers the federal deficit. Because if you're lowering the federal 321 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:48,880 Speaker 1: deficit at the same time that you're lowing costs for individuals, 322 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:52,080 Speaker 1: then you're actually operating in the same direction. Now that's 323 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:54,480 Speaker 1: complicated to do from a policy perspective, but that is 324 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:58,439 Speaker 1: exactly what the Inflation Reduction Act accomplish, but doesn't really 325 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:01,760 Speaker 1: lower federal debt and and title deficit because I thought 326 00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 1: it was just lowering it but the lower ware it 327 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:06,480 Speaker 1: would otherwise have been, But it's not actually producing a 328 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:10,360 Speaker 1: net reduced reduction in the title of debt isn't so 329 00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 1: we're producing it below where the policy people said it 330 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 1: would have otherwise been right. So the appropriate way to 331 00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 1: judge any piece of legislation is is it going to 332 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,959 Speaker 1: reduce or increase the deficit compared to the baseline at 333 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:25,040 Speaker 1: the time, and the Inflation Reduction Act will reduce the 334 00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:27,439 Speaker 1: deficit compared to the baseline by you know, about two 335 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:30,359 Speaker 1: hundred and sixty billion dollars depending in the first decade, 336 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:32,399 Speaker 1: probably more than a trillion dollars in the second decade. 337 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 1: And importantly, it does it in ways like you know, 338 00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:38,480 Speaker 1: probably the simplest way to understand is the provision that 339 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 1: allows Medicare to for the first time, negotiate for better 340 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:44,200 Speaker 1: prices for prescription drugs. That will mean that Medicare is 341 00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 1: spending less money on drugs. That will lower federal spending, 342 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:50,920 Speaker 1: but it will also lower the cost of drugs to 343 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:54,200 Speaker 1: Medicare recipients and also to recipients in the private market, 344 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:57,199 Speaker 1: since Medicare is such a large purchaser. Okay um. In 345 00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:00,440 Speaker 1: the Inflation Reduction Act, a lot of the taxing increases 346 00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 1: that the President had previously proposed the Build Back Better 347 00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:06,320 Speaker 1: Act did not get in. There are those tax increases 348 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 1: off the table for the remainder of the Biden term, 349 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 1: or you're not precluded from uh those are those uh, 350 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:16,639 Speaker 1: those are policies the present thing thought made sense was 351 00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 1: would have supported if they were in the legislation and 352 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:22,640 Speaker 1: continues to support going forward. And I will say, even 353 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:24,600 Speaker 1: for all the things that weren't in there, one of 354 00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 1: the reasons, to go back to your previous question why 355 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:32,280 Speaker 1: that bill reduces the deficit and actually helps in reducing 356 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:35,320 Speaker 1: inflation across time, is that what is in there, for example, 357 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 1: is a new minimum tax book minimum tax um for 358 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:43,560 Speaker 1: the largest corporations, those with over a billion dollars and earnings. 359 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:46,680 Speaker 1: I think that that's the kind of reasonable, common sense 360 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:49,199 Speaker 1: tax reform that makes sense. It does mean that some 361 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:53,440 Speaker 1: people will pay more in taxes, but certainly that kind 362 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 1: of base broadening reform, there's a lot of there's a 363 00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:58,480 Speaker 1: lot of important sensibility to it. On the day that 364 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 1: the Inflation Reduction Act as signed, record high inflation numbers 365 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:06,159 Speaker 1: came out. So did you ever consider maybe adjusting the 366 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:09,520 Speaker 1: schedule of the signing ceremony or was it something you 367 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:11,479 Speaker 1: you said that who told the president the numbers were 368 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:13,800 Speaker 1: gonna be that high that morning and and maybe you 369 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 1: should change the signing ceremony. I think that that number 370 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:21,359 Speaker 1: and others go to how people are experiencing inflation today 371 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:25,200 Speaker 1: because one of the principal reasons why that headline number 372 00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:28,960 Speaker 1: was basically flat. Was because in the month prior gas 373 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:33,879 Speaker 1: prices had calmed down by a very significant amount, and 374 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:39,399 Speaker 1: that is really important for typical Americans UH monthly balance sheets. 375 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:41,399 Speaker 1: But it also is important because it's it's one of 376 00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:45,600 Speaker 1: the most visible price signals in our economy. Now you're 377 00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 1: two in years into almost two years into this administration, UM, 378 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:52,520 Speaker 1: and you expect to stay for another two years I think, 379 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:56,159 Speaker 1: which it's a long UM two years, so you're not 380 00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:58,399 Speaker 1: worn out and you could see doing this for another 381 00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 1: two years at least, if not more. I've got no 382 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:02,880 Speaker 1: plans to leave, and I've got my head down and 383 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 1: certainly fully fully absorbed in the work we're doing. So 384 00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:09,920 Speaker 1: in the next two years, let's suppose you control Congress. 385 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:11,639 Speaker 1: What is you what you'd like to do most in 386 00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:13,800 Speaker 1: economic policy in the next two years. What would be 387 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,719 Speaker 1: your highest goal other than getting inflation down and unemployment 388 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,679 Speaker 1: keeping a reasonable level? Is there another type of Chips 389 00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:22,240 Speaker 1: Act or some other major piece of legislation that you 390 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:26,520 Speaker 1: want to get through? Look, I think there's UM. There's 391 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 1: a number of priorities that that UH I would love 392 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,480 Speaker 1: to see us make more progress on. UM. I'll answer 393 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:34,320 Speaker 1: your question. But as a decide, the first and most 394 00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 1: important thing that that we're gripped by and focused on 395 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:40,679 Speaker 1: now is effectively implementing this historic set of legislation that 396 00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,160 Speaker 1: we have accomplished. The implementation of this to your point 397 00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:46,560 Speaker 1: about chips and otherwise, the effective implementation across the board 398 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:48,560 Speaker 1: is going to make a difference, a big difference in 399 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 1: terms of uh, the broader economic impact. But look, I 400 00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 1: think we need to make more progress on tax reform. 401 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:57,919 Speaker 1: We made some steps here, but it's uh. Showing that 402 00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:00,439 Speaker 1: we can as a country effectively fund our prior orities 403 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,080 Speaker 1: and also bill fairness into the tax code is important. 404 00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:07,120 Speaker 1: It's important for trust, it's important for strengthening our democratic institutions. 405 00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 1: We need to make more progress on underscoring that issues 406 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:14,160 Speaker 1: that often get referenced as care or the care economy 407 00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:17,359 Speaker 1: are not social issues, their core economic issues. They're a 408 00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 1: core to our labor force, uh, their core to our 409 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:23,240 Speaker 1: productivity as a country. And there's other issues that are 410 00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 1: now you know, coming to floor, like housing and housing costs. 411 00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:29,320 Speaker 1: The fact that we have persistent under supply of affordable 412 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:32,000 Speaker 1: housing in this country is a policy choice decades in 413 00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:34,000 Speaker 1: the making. We could do something about that, and now 414 00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:36,040 Speaker 1: is a really important time to do that given the 415 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:39,480 Speaker 1: period in the monetary policy cycle. There's a number of 416 00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:41,919 Speaker 1: places where we can make progress, places where there is 417 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 1: a lot of actual bipartisan support. So UM and I would, 418 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 1: I could, I could go through a much longer list 419 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:50,960 Speaker 1: if you think time. So what's the greatest pleasure of 420 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:52,760 Speaker 1: your job and what's the worst part of your job 421 00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:55,879 Speaker 1: other than interviewing like this, But what's the greatest pleasure 422 00:22:55,880 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 1: and what's the greatest um less pleasurable part? So, you know, 423 00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:04,520 Speaker 1: having gone out and being in comp administrations, by far, 424 00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:07,720 Speaker 1: the greatest pleasure is the people you spend so much 425 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,920 Speaker 1: time with them, but also the quality of people that 426 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:12,679 Speaker 1: can come. You know, a white house is it's a 427 00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 1: in a sense, it's a terrible place to work. It's 428 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:16,480 Speaker 1: very hard and all the like, but it's also a 429 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,879 Speaker 1: place where you know, the the the you know, the 430 00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 1: reservation price or a wage that you would pay is 431 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:24,920 Speaker 1: negative because you know, everybody wants to come and and 432 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,400 Speaker 1: and and have an opportunity. So you can attract great people, 433 00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,880 Speaker 1: diverse people with diverse backgrounds and extraordinary things to bear. 434 00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:35,159 Speaker 1: So you make um friendships, uh and and bonds with 435 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:39,399 Speaker 1: people and so that's at core the best. What's the 436 00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,840 Speaker 1: worst part, the best part, I think the most challenging 437 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,720 Speaker 1: part is that your time is never your own. That's 438 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 1: something kind of is something you you have to be 439 00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 1: prepared that something always can happen, and usually something does happen. 440 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,439 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to hear more of my interviews. You 441 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:58,600 Speaker 1: can subscribe and download my podcast on Spotify, Apple or 442 00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:04,200 Speaker 1: wherever you listen and s