1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,919 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:37,480 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Let's build on the conversation. 10 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:40,640 Speaker 2: He's ten years younger without a tie. Alas Hogstein, the 11 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:43,600 Speaker 2: former Senior Advisor for Energy and Investment and Us. Welcome 12 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:44,239 Speaker 2: to the program. 13 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:45,120 Speaker 3: Thank you. Its great to be here. 14 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 2: Good to see you're seem happy. We can get into 15 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 2: that a little bit later. This came from Javier Blass 16 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:50,560 Speaker 2: just in the last week, and I have read the piece. 17 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:53,599 Speaker 2: What Ukraine has is scorched earth. What it doesn't have 18 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:56,800 Speaker 2: is rare earth. Surprisingly, many people, not least us President 19 00:00:56,800 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 2: Donald Trump, seem convinced the country has a rich mineral endowment. 20 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 2: It's aphoonic. 21 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 3: What's your view on all of this. 22 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 4: Well, first, I think Javier Uh has done a lot 23 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 4: of research into this rare earth's. I've never seen any 24 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 4: evidence of rare earths in Ukraine. There probably are critical 25 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 4: minerals which are different from rare earths in Ukraine, but 26 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:23,679 Speaker 4: not at a at a stage where they've been identified Uh, 27 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:27,760 Speaker 4: and there's been any exploration drilling, not in any of 28 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 4: the commercial quantities that we are aware of. There may be, 29 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 4: and there are, you know, I'm sure there's some data 30 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 4: there behind some of this that suggested there is. 31 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 3: But to get from. 32 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 4: A green field, from a discovery to a production can 33 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:44,120 Speaker 4: take many, many years. It's not a This is not 34 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:47,039 Speaker 4: expanding existing deposits. 35 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 3: So I think this is. 36 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 4: A worthwhile conversation to have with Ukraine about how to 37 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 4: develop their mineral resources. We should talk about how to 38 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 4: redevelop their gas resources, how to develop their green power resources. 39 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:03,040 Speaker 4: Ukraine I believe can be a major supplier of power 40 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:05,440 Speaker 4: to Europe. Critical minerals, I think is going to be 41 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 4: regardless of how this turns out, is going to be 42 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 4: many years away. 43 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 1: When it comes to all these commodities. Wasn't a discussion 44 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 1: like this on the table when you were working in 45 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 1: government under Biden. 46 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:19,079 Speaker 4: This has been under the discussion since I was working 47 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 4: government in Obama administration, so this has been many, many years. 48 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:27,680 Speaker 4: We've always wanted to see Ukraine develop its resources because 49 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 4: that will give them economic boost, that will allow them 50 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 4: to be more independent from Russia and to grow their economy. 51 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:39,960 Speaker 4: The corruption was the issue, right, but the resources were there. 52 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 4: The issue is we shouldn't be taking the revenue from it. 53 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 4: We should want them to have the revenue so that 54 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 4: they can invest in the country, so that their Ukrainians 55 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:50,640 Speaker 4: across Europe that had to fleet can come back and 56 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:53,799 Speaker 4: they can rebuild a country, a military security apparatus, and 57 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 4: a future for their people. 58 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 1: You mentioned corruption, so I'm reminded of an opinion piece 59 00:02:58,040 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 1: you wrote in twenty twenty when you left the super 60 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 1: board of NAFTA Gas. So you've done a lot of 61 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 1: work in Ukraine when it comes to this sector. Do 62 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 1: you think the corruption has gotten better since then? Tackling 63 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:09,720 Speaker 1: the corruption? 64 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:11,359 Speaker 3: Not really. 65 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:17,400 Speaker 4: I think there's a lot of corruption, predates Zelenski. It 66 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 4: was a corrupt society before the Maydan Revolution. The idea 67 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:24,959 Speaker 4: was let's make it better. I think it did get better, 68 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:28,680 Speaker 4: and then some of those efforts stalled. There's been a 69 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,040 Speaker 4: tradition in government when there's a little bit of stress 70 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 4: to go and use that moment to rob the kitty 71 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 4: from state owned enterprises. That's a problem that sort of 72 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 4: ebbs and flows. I think it continues with the state 73 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 4: control and during the war. It's hard to criticize during 74 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 4: a war when you're having your city's bombed regularly, how 75 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 4: you don't do that. 76 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 3: So there's a lot of temptation there. 77 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 4: But I think it's a systemic issue that the international 78 00:03:57,720 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 4: community should tackle. 79 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 5: Just ignoring some of the more heated rhetoric around the 80 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 5: Ukraine Russian War because of the lack of accountability of 81 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 5: where funding is going. Do you think that there is 82 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 5: validity in pushing back unjust how much the US and 83 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:17,359 Speaker 5: even European nations are contributing to the Ukrainians in this 84 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 5: Ukraine Russian War. 85 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 4: You got to separate a couple of things. One is 86 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:24,039 Speaker 4: we need to support Ukraine because another country invaded. You 87 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 4: can argue whether or not the words that Zelenski used 88 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:29,359 Speaker 4: before the invasion were smart or not. 89 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:30,600 Speaker 3: Was it good or bad? 90 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 4: Nothing gives you the right to invade another country because 91 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 4: you don't like what the leader said, you just can't 92 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 4: do that. So they invaded another country and we should 93 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 4: support it. And they invaded Georgia in two thousand and eight, 94 00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 4: and if we didn't intervene, they would control all of 95 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 4: Georgia today and Ukraine. So you got to stop that then, 96 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 4: I think one hundred percent. And we talked about this 97 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:54,720 Speaker 4: already Biden administration. There's a lot of concern about where 98 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:57,040 Speaker 4: is this money going and who's in control of it? 99 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 4: And this came up in many conversations with le with 100 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 4: his top people about our concerns. So what you should 101 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 4: do is tighten the controls on the money and put 102 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:08,680 Speaker 4: the oversight in place so that you know where the 103 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 4: money is going. But you can't do it while also saying, well, 104 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 4: because of that, we're going to allow the Russians to 105 00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 4: take a whole bunch of territory and win the war. 106 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:19,720 Speaker 4: So it's a really tough balance. But you know, government's hard. 107 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 5: When you left the government, where was the Ukrainian situation 108 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 5: in terms of how much territory Russia had taken and 109 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:32,039 Speaker 5: the sense of the balance of power at a time 110 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 5: where it seemed like Russia was making some inroads. 111 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 4: So Russia was making some inroads, but largely the confanty 112 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 4: had been frozen for a long time. Where Russia makes 113 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:43,280 Speaker 4: a little bit of inroads, then Ukraine makes some inroads 114 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:46,839 Speaker 4: somewhere else. You know, on a netnet basis, Russia was 115 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:50,119 Speaker 4: making more inroads than it was losing, but it wasn't 116 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 4: massive amounts of territory, so it was largely frozen. But 117 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:58,680 Speaker 4: that was in order to get to a negotiation. I 118 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:01,360 Speaker 4: agree with the Drum administration that enough is enough, let's 119 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:03,600 Speaker 4: get to a negotiation. I think you have to force 120 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:05,440 Speaker 4: both sides to come to the table, and you got 121 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:07,919 Speaker 4: to force some tough choices by both sides. 122 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 3: Need to make some tough choices. 123 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 4: Freezing the war place and saying okay, we're done, let's 124 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 4: call this a border is really tough because hundreds of 125 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:17,719 Speaker 4: thousands of people have been killed to do what just 126 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:21,159 Speaker 4: to allow for the parts of the country to go away, 127 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 4: and then what is there a disarmed rush on the 128 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:27,559 Speaker 4: other side, I don't think so. So they invade again 129 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 4: in two years, in four years. So you have to 130 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:33,920 Speaker 4: create a negotiation that has both sides of the table, 131 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:37,359 Speaker 4: that allows for some kind of resolution that both sides 132 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 4: don't like, but that ends the war. 133 00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:41,839 Speaker 2: Some points that might the argument that the current president 134 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:45,119 Speaker 2: and President Trump is attempting to shock the Europeans into action. 135 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:48,040 Speaker 2: Can you walk us through your experience with the European allies? 136 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 2: How frustrating was that? 137 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 4: I think for us, for the United States, it's always 138 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:55,800 Speaker 4: a bit frustrating. I think we like to go a 139 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:59,040 Speaker 4: little bit faster, and we want to do things more 140 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 4: aggressively when it comes to areas of conflict and negotiations. 141 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:05,840 Speaker 4: On the other hand, on the economic policy, we tend 142 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:06,800 Speaker 4: to go a little bit slower. 143 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 3: In the environmental issues. We were as a green pro green. 144 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:15,680 Speaker 4: Administration, were frustrated by how far sometimes the Europeans would 145 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 4: go without thinking through the consequences of where they were going, 146 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 4: and then they would suffer the consequences which affects us 147 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 4: and they create high water marks that we then have 148 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 4: to deal with our constituencies of why aren't you doing 149 00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 4: with the Europeans, And it's a bad answer. We say, well, 150 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 4: wait two to five years, you'll see why we're not 151 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 4: doing what the Europeans are doing. So I think there's 152 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:37,160 Speaker 4: always been frustrations there. We tried to do trade policy 153 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 4: with Europe in the Obama administration, the Biden administration, the 154 00:07:40,400 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 4: Trump administration now again very frustrating, very difficult to do it. 155 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 4: So it's built into the system. But at the end 156 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 4: of the day, these are our allies and we have 157 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 4: to recognize that the argument with them, this is the 158 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:57,520 Speaker 4: argument inside the family, versus the arguments with others, which 159 00:07:57,560 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 4: is outside the family. 160 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 1: But don't almost sometimes need to maybe shake them up. 161 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:03,680 Speaker 1: You were part of the Obama administration telling Germany not 162 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 1: to go ahead with Nordstream too, yet they did. 163 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 4: It, yes, And if they didn't do it, large parts 164 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:12,520 Speaker 4: of why their declining economy is now would have been avoided. 165 00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 4: They bought into to the argument of your heroin dealer, 166 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 4: the first hit is free and after. 167 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 3: That you pay a big price, and telling that. 168 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 4: I went to Journey before the Ukraine War five months 169 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 4: before and said, something's wrong. You're you're in trouble, and 170 00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:33,600 Speaker 4: they insisted that they weren't. When the Russians were playing 171 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:36,120 Speaker 4: a game of filling their storage in the winter from 172 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 4: their own storage instead of from Russia, I said, how 173 00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 4: is it possible your pipeline's empty but your storage is filling. 174 00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 1: What took the Europeans so long to see the intelligence 175 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:48,320 Speaker 1: that the Biden administration was seeing, and that Jake Sullivan 176 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 1: was openly telling the press from the podium. 177 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:52,800 Speaker 3: We shared all the intelligence. 178 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 4: I think sometimes they had the exact same intelligence we 179 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 4: had on the invasion. We knew we were saying the 180 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:00,760 Speaker 4: invasion's coming on this day, on this we on this day, 181 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 4: at this hour. They refuse to see it. 182 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 3: No, this is just an exercise. 183 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:08,320 Speaker 4: I think sometimes being the neighbor, you kind of can't 184 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:09,720 Speaker 4: see us. 185 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:13,480 Speaker 3: Being an ocean away, we see it with clearer eyes. 186 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 4: We've missed plenty of intelligence, so I don't want to, 187 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 4: you know, We've we had nine to eleven that people 188 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 4: were training inside the United States and we didn't see it. 189 00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:24,480 Speaker 4: So I think they were just too close to the 190 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 4: Russians and always making the excuses for him, And that 191 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 4: was the problem with Merko and others. They were making 192 00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:33,040 Speaker 4: the excuses. No, he doesn't mean it, And I think 193 00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 4: we have to learn a lot of lessons, and Europe 194 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:35,840 Speaker 4: has to learn more lessons. 195 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:37,520 Speaker 3: But I think they have learned a lesson. 196 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:40,400 Speaker 4: They don't want this war to end this way because 197 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:43,520 Speaker 4: they're worried that this war it doesn't end here in 198 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 4: five years from now. 199 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 3: He invades another country. 200 00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 2: I wanted to finish on this because we could talk 201 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 2: achieve oh day. I mentioned this a couple of times, 202 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:52,080 Speaker 2: and I was half joking but semi serious. Of course, 203 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:54,840 Speaker 2: ten years younger without the time. I've said this a 204 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:57,439 Speaker 2: few times. There are some really, really smart, intelligent people 205 00:09:57,440 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 2: that work inside our administrations here in the United States. 206 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:02,800 Speaker 2: We spoke to one last week secretly, Best of the Treasury. 207 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:05,959 Speaker 2: I worry more and more as you has passed by 208 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 2: that those kind of people want to go into US government. 209 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:11,679 Speaker 2: I consider you part of that. The leaves sing another 210 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 2: at am I really talented, intelligent individuals. You might disagree 211 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 2: with them on their politics, but when it comes to policy, 212 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:20,400 Speaker 2: they've thought things through. Do you worry about that too. 213 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 4: I think it's getting harder and harder to come into government. 214 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 4: I mean, obviously, the hours are terrible. The stress is 215 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:29,679 Speaker 4: why your family time is terrible. And I've seen so 216 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 4: much damage to people's families just by making the choice, 217 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:35,199 Speaker 4: especially if you're at the White House or at. 218 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:37,319 Speaker 3: Senior levels in the government. 219 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:40,880 Speaker 4: And the problem is if you're not already wealthy, it's 220 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 4: becoming even harder because the income is relatively lower. 221 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:45,560 Speaker 3: And I get it. 222 00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 4: It's higher than the average American salary, but it is 223 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:51,080 Speaker 4: lower relative to what the earning potential is for the 224 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 4: people that are in those jobs. And the stress on 225 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:57,560 Speaker 4: it and the amount that it costs you to manage 226 00:10:57,559 --> 00:11:01,440 Speaker 4: your life the government doesn't pay for, and the scrutiny. 227 00:11:01,520 --> 00:11:03,920 Speaker 4: I mean, I have protesters outside my house yelling that 228 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 4: I'm accusing me of genocide, going after my daughter and 229 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:10,880 Speaker 4: putting her on Instagram, my thirteen year old. That comes 230 00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 4: with the job. And it's not like the Secret Service 231 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 4: was there to help me or the cops. I mean 232 00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 4: they're just standing there watching. So what you get, the 233 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,800 Speaker 4: blowback that you get and is in to manage your 234 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 4: life is. 235 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 3: Really really difficult. 236 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 4: The process for confirmation by the Senate is out of control, 237 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:32,560 Speaker 4: and for relatively low level positions. So to come and 238 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 4: be an assistant secretary in some random agency, you are 239 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:40,200 Speaker 4: now supposed to hire lawyers and accountants and to do 240 00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:43,840 Speaker 4: a forensics auditing of your life, of your personal life, 241 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:47,440 Speaker 4: of your financial I mean it's too much, and so 242 00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 4: I worry that outside of it being you know, I 243 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 4: made a lot of money, so I'm going to go 244 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:53,360 Speaker 4: into government and play with that for a little bit, 245 00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:57,520 Speaker 4: and that happens at both parties. I worry that that 246 00:11:57,600 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 4: it gets harder and harder to get good people. 247 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 3: To come in. 248 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:02,439 Speaker 2: I think a lot of people share that worry. Almost 249 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 2: it's good to see you. Hopefully we'll catch up again soon, 250 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 2: I mustoxting there they form a senior advisor for Energy 251 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:19,200 Speaker 2: and Investment to President Bier At mos of RAMA, James 252 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:21,480 Speaker 2: joins us. Now we can extend this conversation and welcome 253 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:23,600 Speaker 2: to the program, sir. Hopefully we can hear you, because 254 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 2: we didn't hear our last guest, so hopefully we can 255 00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 2: hear you. And there you are perfect, wonderful, and let's 256 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 2: talk about the dojeffer over the weekend. 257 00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:30,600 Speaker 3: Sir. 258 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:33,080 Speaker 2: That email that went out, what's in the consequence of 259 00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:36,120 Speaker 2: all of this will ultimately be so. 260 00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:38,640 Speaker 6: John, I want you to send me an email by 261 00:12:38,720 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 6: midnight tonight, and if you don't respond, I get a 262 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:45,439 Speaker 6: million dollars. I think that's one of the responses here 263 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 6: in DC. The question I have with this is that 264 00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:52,280 Speaker 6: if you go into the executive order that establishes DOGE, 265 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 6: this is not within their charge, and so you are 266 00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:58,640 Speaker 6: going to have a series of things and this is 267 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:02,240 Speaker 6: a real issue here in DAE as to who are 268 00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 6: you actually reporting to and if you don't report, are 269 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 6: there some legal consequences. Certainly, everyone who wants to keep 270 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:15,160 Speaker 6: their job is looking for guidance of exactly what they 271 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:18,800 Speaker 6: are supposed to do with this under the executive order. 272 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:21,559 Speaker 6: Those are supposed to be working on an upgrade to 273 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:25,520 Speaker 6: the IT system and sub support. The Chief of Staff 274 00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:29,040 Speaker 6: to the President, Susie Wilde Those does not set this 275 00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 6: out in executive Order, but we keep on seeing expansion 276 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:35,400 Speaker 6: of that, and until we get some of the legal 277 00:13:35,520 --> 00:13:38,560 Speaker 6: infrastructure around that, I think there's gonna be a lot 278 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 6: of quote unquote trauma and uncertainty here in DC. If 279 00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 6: you want to shrink the federal government, you can do that. 280 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:49,360 Speaker 6: We've seen that in the past. There are processes in place. 281 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:53,959 Speaker 6: Clearly they want to move fast, as you saw Treasury 282 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:59,000 Speaker 6: Secretary Vesant say with your interview. However, it is unclear 283 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:01,320 Speaker 6: on if you move fast, asked is it more effective 284 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:02,280 Speaker 6: or not ed. 285 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:06,320 Speaker 1: We have several government agencies people that Trump put in place, 286 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 1: people that everyone in a lot of mainstream media were 287 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:12,720 Speaker 1: calling serious loyalists, telling their employees to leave those emails 288 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:15,840 Speaker 1: on red At the same time that Trump is tweeting 289 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 1: out memes, one of SpongeBob SquarePants saying, this is what 290 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 1: I got done last week. Quote cried about Trump cried 291 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:24,880 Speaker 1: about Elon If you're an employee at one of these 292 00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker 1: agencies and you want to secure your job, what do 293 00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 1: you do? 294 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:31,880 Speaker 6: You listen to your manager because ultimately that is going 295 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 6: to be what you kind of have to work with. 296 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 6: But there is a lot of uncertainty, and you know, 297 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:41,320 Speaker 6: I think that when we look at kind of some 298 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 6: of the you know, we've discussed the national security issues, 299 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 6: the classified issues, it is very kind of appropriate to 300 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 6: have the Director of National Intelligence, Chelsea Gabbert, come out 301 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 6: and say to the entire intelligence community, do not respond. 302 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:58,400 Speaker 6: There's just certain things that you can't When you hear 303 00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 6: from Elon Mo through his posts, some of this is 304 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 6: are there government employees who are not on their email, 305 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:09,800 Speaker 6: are not responding to things. That's an appropriate thing to 306 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 6: get a pulse check for individuals, whether or not they 307 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:17,000 Speaker 6: are engaged in their job. There have been individuals who've 308 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 6: been told not to do their job. You look at 309 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 6: the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, there's been a number of 310 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:26,480 Speaker 6: folks told stand down, don't work. So if you've in 311 00:15:26,520 --> 00:15:30,040 Speaker 6: that position, how do you respond? But I'm also really 312 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 6: looking amory at what's going to help happen here in DC. 313 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 6: You know, we have a lot of to dos in 314 00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 6: Congress this week. We're going to see at the end 315 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 6: of the week. Are they going to be able to 316 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 6: fill out that five step thing? Did they pass the budget? 317 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:42,960 Speaker 6: Are we moving forward with the tax cris? Are we 318 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 6: moving forward with that new defense and immigration spending? 319 00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 1: Do you think the House will pass the budget this week? 320 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:52,040 Speaker 6: I'm really skeptical. I think that, you know, we have 321 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 6: a situation where one or two members can sync the 322 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:58,240 Speaker 6: entire thing. We already have one hard note out there. 323 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:02,000 Speaker 6: When we look at this bill, I don't know if 324 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:04,520 Speaker 6: there's enough of a crisis or a deadline to get 325 00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 6: this done just yet. So I wouldn't expect it to 326 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:10,000 Speaker 6: kind of go clean on the first start, but almost 327 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 6: nothing happens clean on the first start. I am expecting 328 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 6: that more attention is going to go to the Senate 329 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:18,680 Speaker 6: passed budget. Maybe that provides a quick win for the 330 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 6: president on immigration spending, on defense spending, if they need 331 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:26,760 Speaker 6: a backup plan, if the House just can't get everyone 332 00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 6: on the same page, just yet how. 333 00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:31,600 Speaker 5: Much spending that you see being cut from the US 334 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 5: government is real versus just sort of theorized about. In 335 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 5: other words, how much oxygen have they really saved by 336 00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 5: making some of these cuts in the federal workforce and 337 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:45,280 Speaker 5: announcing cuts to the Defense Department that haven't been approved yet, 338 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:46,760 Speaker 5: and our sort of discussions at. 339 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 6: This point, Yeah, at least at this point, it's very low. 340 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:52,880 Speaker 6: A lot of the savings that have been announced are 341 00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 6: contracts that have actually already been paid. So I want 342 00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 6: to see more kind of on a go forward basis 343 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:03,360 Speaker 6: much that is going to kind of take into account. 344 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:04,400 Speaker 3: When we look at Congress. 345 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 6: We're not quite sure when they are coming up with 346 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:10,960 Speaker 6: some of their budget cuts, how much are those paper savings, 347 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:14,280 Speaker 6: how much of those are real savings. I do think though, 348 00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:17,920 Speaker 6: there is a lot of momentum of making the tax 349 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:22,680 Speaker 6: cuts that passed in twenty seventeen permanent, and I don't 350 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:25,080 Speaker 6: think they're going to be able to get five trillion 351 00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 6: dollars worth of pay for US either through dose savings 352 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:32,000 Speaker 6: or through some of the savings that Congress chooses. So 353 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 6: having this conversation about how aggressive Doze is being, how 354 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 6: aggressive we are going to be on tariff policy is 355 00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:43,080 Speaker 6: providing political cover and groundwork to actually add to the 356 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 6: debt and the deficit over the next ten years, even 357 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 6: when you've had this narrative that there's such a significant 358 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:53,600 Speaker 6: reduction in staff and savings of the federal government. 359 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 2: Lisa ed, thank you, sir. We're going to leave it 360 00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:57,760 Speaker 2: there at most of Raymond James joining us on the 361 00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:09,359 Speaker 2: latest DOJ effort down in Washington, day sable. So here's 362 00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:12,880 Speaker 2: the like sis you've mentioned. Sentiment showing consumer inflation expectations 363 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 2: jumping to their highest level in almost three decades. Survey responses, 364 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:20,240 Speaker 2: mostly along party lines, showing new inflation reconcerns about President 365 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:23,119 Speaker 2: Trump's tariff policy. Joining us now to break it down. 366 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:26,480 Speaker 2: Nata Richardson of ABP NATA good morning. Got to start 367 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:29,040 Speaker 2: with you missed on Friday. How reliable is that economic data? 368 00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:30,520 Speaker 2: How much weight should we put on that? 369 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:31,480 Speaker 3: I think it. 370 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:35,680 Speaker 7: Gives you good situational awareness. Should you create monetary policy 371 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:36,200 Speaker 7: around it? 372 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:36,439 Speaker 3: No? 373 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:38,639 Speaker 7: I don't think so. But in terms of where the 374 00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:41,680 Speaker 7: consumer is going, what they're thinking, and tracking that every 375 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:44,119 Speaker 7: single month, I think it gives you a benchmark or 376 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 7: at least some context for how consumers are feeling. We 377 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 7: can't interview every person on the street. If we could, 378 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:53,120 Speaker 7: we get you know, more real time data, but it's 379 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 7: a survey. There's luckily other things from the FAD about 380 00:18:57,000 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 7: consumer expectations from the New York Fad and other banks 381 00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:03,479 Speaker 7: that we can also use to support this data. But 382 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:06,600 Speaker 7: I think if we take from it that consumers are 383 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:10,800 Speaker 7: still feeling inflation and it's dampening their sentiment, I think 384 00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:13,560 Speaker 7: that's a great piece of information to move forward to 385 00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:16,160 Speaker 7: and think about the economy in a broader context. 386 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:18,320 Speaker 5: We've been pretty parished. I've gotten a couple of emails 387 00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:20,679 Speaker 5: people saying, really, this is coming back. And on the 388 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 5: flip side, there's a lot of optimism along businesses. See 389 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:27,480 Speaker 5: I'm actually being positive here, And even though you have 390 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:32,800 Speaker 5: consumers that feel negative consumer the optimism among small businesses 391 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 5: is skyrocketed. So which is more important to hiring and 392 00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:39,440 Speaker 5: to the overall economy. If people have jobs, what they 393 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 5: do and what they say are going to be different things. 394 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:43,840 Speaker 7: What they do and what they say are different things. 395 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 7: And I think it's a matter of timing because feelings 396 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:49,560 Speaker 7: do translate into action, and if consumers are feeling bearish 397 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:53,200 Speaker 7: about this economy, it matters for hiring because it's a 398 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:57,200 Speaker 7: consumer driven economy. Consumers are driving the industries that are 399 00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 7: being that are surviving and thriving right now, leisure and hospitality, 400 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:06,040 Speaker 7: healthcare which includes a lot of discretionary procedures as well, 401 00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:08,680 Speaker 7: like dental work for example. So you know, we can't 402 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,919 Speaker 7: discount the consumer mood and the consumer vibe. At the 403 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:16,720 Speaker 7: same time, it's encouraging to see small firms feeling optimistic 404 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:20,880 Speaker 7: because small firms are the engine of growth for the economy. 405 00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:24,400 Speaker 7: So what are they optimistic about. I think they're optimistic 406 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:28,360 Speaker 7: about perhaps slower interest rates, slower financing costs, maybe an 407 00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:32,119 Speaker 7: easier hiring environment, viz. Are the larger firms who have 408 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:36,120 Speaker 7: outmanned them in recruitment and talent, And maybe there's a 409 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:39,200 Speaker 7: feeling of less regulation going into this new year, new 410 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:43,920 Speaker 7: administration that gives them some like tailwind to their spirits. 411 00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 5: Statistic is there a sense that the negativity and consumer 412 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,320 Speaker 5: sentiment can persist for a very long time and it 413 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:52,880 Speaker 5: not be felt in the broader economy. And I say 414 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 5: this because there was a data out of Moodies that 415 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,199 Speaker 5: said that the top ten percent of US earners now 416 00:20:57,280 --> 00:21:01,040 Speaker 5: account for about half of all consumer spending that actually 417 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:05,160 Speaker 5: in the period in the year ended September twenty twenty four, 418 00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:09,200 Speaker 5: they increase spending well, the rest of the earners decrease spending. 419 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 5: Can this continue for a while because people at the 420 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:12,800 Speaker 5: top are feeling pretty. 421 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:16,040 Speaker 7: Good as long as asset prices hold up. So if 422 00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 7: you are a wealthier consumer, some of your optimism and 423 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,640 Speaker 7: your spending patterns are based on the fact that assets 424 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:25,440 Speaker 7: have been really strong over this time period. So while 425 00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:29,520 Speaker 7: lower income consumers are feeling inflation in a very visceral way. 426 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 7: I mean, I was in Louisiana where the price of 427 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,359 Speaker 7: eggs were over ten dollars because of the bird flu. 428 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:34,840 Speaker 3: You're going to. 429 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:38,399 Speaker 7: Feel that as a low income consumer. But if asset 430 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:42,200 Speaker 7: prices stay strong, you may not feel the same pinch 431 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:47,640 Speaker 7: as a high income consumer and can keep that fluidity 432 00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:50,040 Speaker 7: and that spending. But yes, the fact that this is 433 00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:54,520 Speaker 7: a lopsided consumption market is a very real thing. If 434 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:58,560 Speaker 7: asset prices turned sideways, that changes the dynamic for the economy. 435 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,400 Speaker 1: That's a tough anecdote and something this administration or any 436 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,560 Speaker 1: administration Biden Trump, very challenging to do because it's going on. 437 00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:07,719 Speaker 1: The bird flu Something else that struck me with the 438 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,720 Speaker 1: University of Michigan survey was that more than half of 439 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:14,160 Speaker 1: consumers expect the unemployment rate to rise over the next year. 440 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:16,760 Speaker 1: Do consumers think they might be out of a job? 441 00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:20,159 Speaker 7: We're seeing that in the turnover race. There is some 442 00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:24,680 Speaker 7: anxiety perhaps on the worker side. I mean, everyone's seeing 443 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,679 Speaker 7: the headlines on the federal government and what's going on there, 444 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 7: but we don't really talk about what that could mean 445 00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:33,880 Speaker 7: for the private sector. And from what I'm hearing anecdotally 446 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 7: and what I'm seeing in the ADP data and we've 447 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:40,560 Speaker 7: sell about before the new year and the new administration, 448 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:44,359 Speaker 7: is that people and workers are staying put. There's a 449 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:48,520 Speaker 7: sense that the economic prospects, the job opportunities aren't as 450 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:51,879 Speaker 7: plentiful as they were two years ago. It's taking longer 451 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:54,359 Speaker 7: to get a job. It's taking longer to find a 452 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:58,119 Speaker 7: white collar job. We've seen business services retract their hiring. 453 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 7: New college graduates are taking longer to get a job, 454 00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 7: and there's a sense that maybe I should stay with 455 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 7: the employer. I have also with the Great Resignation, a 456 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:08,520 Speaker 7: lot of people switched like two years ago, and they're 457 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,359 Speaker 7: not ready to move, so that turnover is having an 458 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,040 Speaker 7: effect on the labor market and it's leading to the 459 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,480 Speaker 7: stasis that we're seeing. It's like the quiet before the 460 00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:17,480 Speaker 7: storm in some sense. 461 00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:19,959 Speaker 2: Andrew Honeholzer City talked about the same thing, this low 462 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:23,160 Speaker 2: churn dynamic in the labor market. They think is inconsistent 463 00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:24,560 Speaker 2: with a healthy labor market. 464 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,639 Speaker 5: If the market is strong, you should be able to 465 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 5: quit your job, and that's why people are watching quits 466 00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:32,720 Speaker 5: come down to some of the lowest levels since the pandemic, 467 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,119 Speaker 5: and that's the reason why some people are saying it 468 00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:37,120 Speaker 5: could portend something less positive. 469 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:39,320 Speaker 2: Focused on jobless claims as well. At the moment, aren't 470 00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:42,080 Speaker 2: we every single Thursday at the index level, things are 471 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:44,959 Speaker 2: still okay. Beneath the index just focused on Virginia, Washington, 472 00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:47,920 Speaker 2: d C certain places that things starting to break, and. 473 00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:50,560 Speaker 5: People put out reports over the weekend of the proportion 474 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:52,760 Speaker 5: of federal workers that work in the DC area it's 475 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:54,480 Speaker 5: about twenty percent. So people are going to be looking 476 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:58,119 Speaker 5: at specific counts in specific counties to try to understand 477 00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,679 Speaker 5: how this is trickling into numbers, to get a broader 478 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:03,359 Speaker 5: sense of how to even frame this in conversation. 479 00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:05,280 Speaker 2: The estimates a Thursday morning, by the way, is two 480 00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,640 Speaker 2: twenty one. The previous week was two nineteen. NEI look 481 00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:10,639 Speaker 2: good to see you, as always, thank you, neither written 482 00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:15,480 Speaker 2: than there of ADP. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, 483 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,520 Speaker 2: bringing you the best in markets, economics, angiot politics. You 484 00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 2: can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings 485 00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 2: from six am to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the 486 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 2: podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen, and 487 00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:31,960 Speaker 2: as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.