Speaker 1: Hi, it's Carol and Tim's here too, and today we
Speaker 1: want to introduce you to the Bloomberg Daybreak podcast.
Speaker 2: We certainly do every day. Nathan Hager, Karen Moscow, and
Speaker 2: Amy Morris bring you a roundup of the top stories
Speaker 2: from Wall Street to Washington and around the world. It's
Speaker 2: all in the Daybreak podcast feed by six am each morning.
Speaker 1: And today, for our business week audience, we bring you
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Speaker 3: Good morning, I'm Abe Morris and I'm Karen Moscow. Here
Speaker 3: are the stories we're following today.
Speaker 4: We begin with oil rising to start the new year,
Speaker 4: Iran sending a warship to the Red Sea and an
Speaker 4: escalation of tensions in the region. The show of force
Speaker 4: comes after the US Navy destroyed three Hoothy votes which
Speaker 4: we're attempting to board a container on New Year's Day.
Speaker 4: Elizabeth Kendall is a Middle East specialist from Cambridge University
Speaker 4: and says the two are clearly interlinked.
Speaker 5: Aeron is puppeteering Hamas the Whosies and of the movements
Speaker 5: like hesbula in the Middle East and the Housy slogan indeed,
Speaker 5: is includes the words death to Israel and a curss
Speaker 5: on the Jews, so it's very much aligned with Hamas's
Speaker 5: more militant and extreme war wing.
Speaker 4: Cambridge University's Elizabeth Kendall checking oil right now, Nimex crude
Speaker 4: oil up more than two percent or a dollar forty
Speaker 4: nine now trading at seventy three dollars and thirteen cents
Speaker 4: a barrel.
Speaker 3: Care Well, amy oil isn't the only thing on the
Speaker 3: move this morning. We're also seeing Bitcoin on the rise,
Speaker 3: following through on last year's massive rally, and we get
Speaker 3: more from Bloomberg Markets reporter Joe Easton it.
Speaker 6: Is up another four percent at the moment, at the
Speaker 6: highest level since April sixth, above forty five thousand dollars
Speaker 6: for the first time in two years. This is due
Speaker 6: to the expectation of the direct investment from this ETF,
Speaker 6: so that is boosting sentiment and a lot of positivity.
Speaker 6: People looking for more technical levels for that one to
Speaker 6: keep going higher.
Speaker 3: Bloomberg joeys And says bitcoin has risen over twenty percent
Speaker 3: since has started December, as that January tenth deadline for
Speaker 3: the Securities in Exchange Commission to give its blessing for
Speaker 3: a spot Bitcoin.
Speaker 7: ETF draws closer.
Speaker 3: Checking Bitcoin right now, it's at forty five seven hundred dollars.
Speaker 4: Over in Europe, stocks are also hired to kick off
Speaker 4: the new trading year. Let's get the latest from Bloomberg
Speaker 4: Daybreak euro banker Stephen Carrol.
Speaker 8: Stephen, good morning, Amy and Karen. The tensions in the
Speaker 8: Red Sea are playing into the market narrative in Europe today.
Speaker 8: Shares and the shipping giant Maersk have risen after it
Speaker 8: stopped using that key trade route for forty eight hours
Speaker 8: following the weekend attack on one of its vessels. Higher
Speaker 8: oil prices are also helping to lift oil majors, making
Speaker 8: energy one of the best performing sectors on the stock
Speaker 8: six hundred. More broadly, it's the Spanish and Italian markets
Speaker 8: which are out performing, boosted by a rise in bank
Speaker 8: shares In London. Stephen Carrol Bloomberg Radio, All.
Speaker 3: Right, Stephen, thank you all. Back here in the US,
Speaker 3: Wall Street returns to a holiday shortened week to kick
Speaker 3: off the new trading year, and we get a look
Speaker 3: ahead from Bloomberg.
Speaker 9: Stirly the s and P five hundred index sits within
Speaker 9: striking distance of its first in two years. But a
Speaker 9: key challenge for markets is the outlook for the economy
Speaker 9: and corporate earnings. Michael Binger is the president of Gradient Investments.
Speaker 10: The economy I think is very resilient. Jobs are driving
Speaker 10: that corporate profits are supposed to grow about ten eleven percent.
Speaker 10: And valuations, I mean they're not really cheap, but they're
Speaker 10: not super expensive either in the markets right now.
Speaker 9: Among this week's earnings reports Constellation Brands and Walgreens Boots
Speaker 9: Alliance in New York. Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 11: Thank you, Charlie.
Speaker 4: In twenty twenty three, some of Wall Street's biggest names
Speaker 4: got it wrong with their predictions for how markets would perform.
Speaker 11: So will they fare.
Speaker 4: Better in twenty twenty four, Bloomberg has compiled more than
Speaker 4: six hundred and fifty calls from strategists in Today's Big Take.
Speaker 4: Sam Potter is a senior markets editor for Bloomberg.
Speaker 12: Most strategists to Wall Street see the interest rate tykes
Speaker 12: of the past eighteen months to two years. Finally starting
Speaker 12: to economies generally around the world stock slow, and that
Speaker 12: will kind of pre run a central bank pivot roundabout
Speaker 12: mek Ye.
Speaker 4: Bloomberg Senior Markets editor Sam Potter adds that strategists see
Speaker 4: the main risks to the markets inflation and the US election.
Speaker 3: Well. In corporate news, amy China's BYD may have just
Speaker 3: overtaken Tesla as the world leader in EV sales. It's
Speaker 3: still more than five hundred and twenty six thousand fully
Speaker 3: electric vehicles in the fourth quarter. Bloomberg's John Lewis more
Speaker 3: from Beijing.
Speaker 13: When BYD Tesla, it'll do two things. I think that's
Speaker 13: gonna put this company into the consciousness of people around
Speaker 13: the world in a way that that company has not
Speaker 13: had ever before. The number two thing it does is
Speaker 13: it really underscores how dominant a position China, not only
Speaker 13: as a market, but as a country with lots of
Speaker 13: companies producing electric vehicles, how dominant a position China has
Speaker 13: in that industry now.
Speaker 3: And Bloomberg John Luisa's Tesla is estimated to I've delivered
Speaker 3: over four hundred eighty three thousand in the fourth quarter alone.
Speaker 4: Speaking of China, President Xi Jinping has pledged to strengthen
Speaker 4: his country's economic recovery after a tough year Bloomberg's Jenny
Speaker 4: Marsh has more from Hong Kong.
Speaker 14: This is Chi Jinping's New Years Eve's speech, and he
Speaker 14: normally uses it to so trumpet the achievements his nation's
Speaker 14: major in the year. And I think this speech really
Speaker 14: stood out for how candid he was being about these problems.
Speaker 14: It's the first time he's acknowledged that the struggles that
Speaker 14: twenty twenty three have brought. It also sort of underplayed
Speaker 14: in some ways the problems that are still lying ahead
Speaker 14: in twenty twenty four for the economy, and he didn't
Speaker 14: really have any sort of quick fixes for that.
Speaker 4: Bloomberg Jenny Marsh says China is entering a pivotal period
Speaker 4: as policymakers try to boost growth, stabilize a crisis in
Speaker 4: the property market, and prevent deflation. Beijing is expected to
Speaker 4: target a growth goal of around five percent again in
Speaker 4: twenty twenty four.
Speaker 3: Meanwhile, Amy the Biden administration has won another battle and
Speaker 3: its effort to try and slow Shina from building its
Speaker 3: own semiconductor industry.
Speaker 7: We get more with the Bloomberg's Ed.
Speaker 15: Baxter ASML Holding is canceled shipments of some of its
Speaker 15: machines to China. At the Biden request. This week's before
Speaker 15: the export bands on the high end chip making came
Speaker 15: into effect, the Dutch manufacturer had licenses to ship three
Speaker 15: top of the line deep ultraviolet lithography machines, but before
Speaker 15: the deadline it decided to cancel the orders. The US
Speaker 15: and allies have been trying to block access to the technology.
Speaker 15: Ed Baxter, Bloomberg Radio, Thank.
Speaker 4: You care in time now for a look at some
Speaker 4: of the other stories making news in New York and
Speaker 4: around the world. And for that we're joined by Bloomberg's
Speaker 4: Michael bar Good morning, Michael.
Speaker 16: Good morning Amy. The death toll has now climbed to
Speaker 16: forty eight after a magnitude seven point six earthquakes struck Japan.
Speaker 16: The quake hit off the Noto Peninsula on Japan's northwest coast.
Speaker 16: This man at Tokyo resident and US national, was visiting
Speaker 16: Toyama when the quake hit.
Speaker 7: First.
Speaker 17: I just done it very slowly, and everybody kind of
Speaker 17: left it off, you know, they thought, oh, this is
Speaker 17: this is kind of humorous, you know, on New Year's Day,
Speaker 17: and then again it is just a violid shape.
Speaker 16: The tremor was followed by hundreds of aftershocks, a plane
Speaker 16: is on fire right now on the runway of Tokyo's
Speaker 16: Hanada Airport. Authority say a large burst of fire erupted
Speaker 16: from the side of a Japan Airlines plane as a
Speaker 16: taxi on the runway. All of the three hundred and
Speaker 16: seventy nine passengers and crew were said to be safely evacuated.
Speaker 16: Israel Supreme Court struck down a key component of Prime
Speaker 16: Minister Benjamin etna Who's contentious judicious overhaul before the October
Speaker 16: seventh of mass attack into southern Israel. The planned overhaul
Speaker 16: sparked months of mass protests threatened to trigger a constitutional
Speaker 16: crisis between the judicial and legislative branches of government. The
Speaker 16: FBI's Joint Terrorism Task Force is assisting police in Rochester,
Speaker 16: New York, to investigate a car crash that killed two
Speaker 16: people and injured five others outside of performing Arts theater
Speaker 16: in the early hours of New Year's Day. The crash
Speaker 16: happened in front of the Kodak Center. It became a
Speaker 16: large scene due to a fire which had erupted as
Speaker 16: a result of the crash, and police also say several
Speaker 16: gas cans were found in and around the striking vehicle.
Speaker 16: Rochester Mayor Walek Evans.
Speaker 18: I want to offer my condolences to those families, those
Speaker 18: individuals that lost their lives, and I asked the community
Speaker 18: to pay pray not only for those that have lost
Speaker 18: their lives, but also those that are injured.
Speaker 16: Terrorism investigators are trying to determine if this was just
Speaker 16: a car accident or something far worse. New York City's
Speaker 16: effort to stop migrant buses has resulted in the buses
Speaker 16: arriving instead in neighboring New Jersey. Over the weekend, buses
Speaker 16: from Texas and Louisiana began dropping off asylum seekers at
Speaker 16: several New Jersey transit stations. From there, the asylum seekers
Speaker 16: are believed to have taken trains to New York City. Edison,
Speaker 16: New Jersey, Mayor Sam Joshi says the buses are a
Speaker 16: major risk to health and security.
Speaker 10: The solution for me, as the mayor of Edison, is
Speaker 10: not to point it off to another mayor.
Speaker 16: Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you
Speaker 16: want it with the Bloomberg News. Now, I'm Michael Barr,
Speaker 16: and this is Bloomberg Jamie.
Speaker 4: All right, thank you, Michael, And we do bring the
Speaker 4: news throughout the day here on Bloomberg Radio and Now.
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Speaker 4: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Time now, but
Speaker 4: the Sports Report brought to you by Tri State Audi.
Speaker 4: For that, we bring in John stash Hour.
Speaker 19: Thanks Amy Kevil of Terrific gains of the college football
Speaker 19: Playoffs semifinals overtime at the Roseball after Michigan tie to Alabama,
Speaker 19: the Lady touchdown in ot Wolverines had the ball first.
Speaker 7: The shotgun Paul McGain this tiny peals said he's got
Speaker 7: the first out of more Portman's side. The five porm
Speaker 7: spiss way across.
Speaker 9: The goal line.
Speaker 19: Touch down Michigan seven, ten touchdown run. ESPN the call.
Speaker 19: Michigan then stop famacb Jalen Milroe on a fourth down
Speaker 19: and won twenty seven to twenty JJ McCarthy through three
Speaker 19: TV passes. And then came the Sugar Bowl where Washington
Speaker 19: never trailed that a thirteen point lead beenway through the
Speaker 19: fourth quartern. Texas rallied had four chances to take the
Speaker 19: lead the final fifteen seconds, but ended the game with
Speaker 19: three incompletions on the Husky survive thirty seven thirty one.
Speaker 19: Their QB, Michael Pennix Junior threw for four hundred and
Speaker 19: thirty yards. Championship game next Monday in Houston, both Michigan
Speaker 19: and Washington will go in fourteen to oh if yest
Speaker 19: the ball, All Oregon forty five to six overlimitary boat
Speaker 19: next through five TD passes, sitters pull in Orlando, All
Speaker 19: Tennessee thirty five nothing over Iowa. LSU won to rely
Speaker 19: a quest in Tampa thirty five to thirty one over Wisconsin.
Speaker 19: Nick's happy to start the new year at the Garden.
Speaker 19: After an O one three road trip. They beat Minnesota
Speaker 19: one twelve one oh six Julius Randall Port in thirty
Speaker 19: nine points. Og on Enobi made his next debut. He
Speaker 19: played thirty five minutes before founding out. He scored seventeen
Speaker 19: In Toronto.
Speaker 3: R J.
Speaker 19: Barrett and Emmanuel quickly debuted for their new team, scored
Speaker 19: nineteen and fourteen points in a Raptors win over Cleveland
Speaker 19: Outdoor Hockey in Seattle crowd of forty seven thousand to
Speaker 19: see the Kraken shout out Vegas three nothing. Johns Stasha
Speaker 19: went to Bloomberg Sports.
Speaker 20: From coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,
Speaker 20: Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on SYRIASXAM, the Bloomberg Business
Speaker 20: app in Bloomberg dot com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 11: Good morning.
Speaker 4: I'm Amy Morris, and we are entering the first week
Speaker 4: of trading for twenty twenty four. As we do, most
Speaker 4: investment outlooks from major banks and advisors are predicting the
Speaker 4: same middle of the road scenario for the coming year,
Speaker 4: an economic slow down, a central bank of it, and
Speaker 4: a late year rebound. We're joined by Dennis Gartman, University
Speaker 4: of Akron and Doowment chairman and former publisher of The
Speaker 4: Gartman Letter to sort of set us straight on what
Speaker 4: we can expect for the coming year. Now, Dennis, the
Speaker 4: dollar closed out it's worst year since twenty twenty, the
Speaker 4: S and P five hundred rows nine straight weeks.
Speaker 11: Are these trends bound to continue?
Speaker 21: I have my doubts as to the latter trend will continue.
Speaker 21: I think stocks are extremely overbought, and market has risen
Speaker 21: on an anticipation of three, four, five, six cuts in
Speaker 21: the overnight Fed funds rate by the Federal Reserve Bank.
Speaker 21: I have my doubts as to whether that will occur.
Speaker 21: I think that the Fed is done raising the overnight
Speaker 21: Fed funds rate. Of that, there's no doubt. But whether
Speaker 21: they're going to cut five or six times, I think
Speaker 21: is very doubtful. I think we have to anticipate the
Speaker 21: fact that the Federal will delay any change in the
Speaker 21: overnight Fed funds rate lower to later this year. There's
Speaker 21: too much anticipation that the federalill begin cutting in the
Speaker 21: overnight funds rate by March. I think it'll be late
Speaker 21: in the summer, maybe early into the into the autumn
Speaker 21: before it happens, but we shall see. Time shall tell.
Speaker 21: I think stocks, however, are aggressively overbought, have been for
Speaker 21: some while, and it seems to me this looks very
Speaker 21: similar to what happened in twenty twenty one twenty twenty two,
Speaker 21: when we reach the higher the market on the opening
Speaker 21: day of twenty twenty one and then ended up having
Speaker 21: a rather substantive decline in prices, So time shall tell,
Speaker 21: we'll see, but too much anticipation of too much easier
Speaker 21: possibilities on the part of the Fed that I don't
Speaker 21: think are going to happen.
Speaker 4: Now, we have a job's report coming out on Friday.
Speaker 4: What are you watching for in that and how that
Speaker 4: might impact it?
Speaker 21: Long ago I quit anticipating the over the employment rates
Speaker 21: because of the fact that we tend to see such
Speaker 21: huge numbers of revisions from one month to the next.
Speaker 21: But right now the market is anticipating an increase of
Speaker 21: about one hundred and seventy five to one hundred and
Speaker 21: eighty five thousand new jobs. We shall see if that
Speaker 21: if that occurs, but it's one of the most radically
Speaker 21: revised reports of the year. Every month the revisions are
Speaker 21: forty to fifty thousand plus or minus. So right now
Speaker 21: the market is anticipating one hundred and seventy five to
Speaker 21: one hundred and eighty five thousand. Times shall tell.
Speaker 4: Barkley is predicting a softest landing Vanguard JP Morgan expecting
Speaker 4: a mild recession, but you know that's what everybody predicted
Speaker 4: for twenty twenty three as well.
Speaker 11: What's the difference now?
Speaker 21: I was one of the people that expected to see
Speaker 21: a recession in twenty twenty three, and clearly we have
Speaker 21: not had that. The market is now anticipating the softest,
Speaker 21: the best of all kind of soft landings imaginable. I
Speaker 21: have my doubts as to whether that will occur, but
Speaker 21: that's what the market anticipates, that's what the stock prices
Speaker 21: have anticipated, and that's what the world generally anticipates. Whether
Speaker 21: whether it happens or not is up for debate. I
Speaker 21: have my doubts, seriously, though. We are overextended to the upside.
Speaker 21: We were long overdue on a recession because of the
Speaker 21: FEDS tightening monetary policy over the course of the past
Speaker 21: several years, and there's always law wrong and reasonable legs
Speaker 21: between the monetary policy and economic activity. And I think
Speaker 21: we'll be recessionary before the end of the year, but
Speaker 21: I don't think it'll be a substance of one. I
Speaker 21: think it'll be a very quiet one time. However, again,
Speaker 21: as I've said too many times already this morning Times.
Speaker 4: Hotel, Yeah, I was about to ask you what kind
Speaker 4: of recession you were looking for.
Speaker 11: You're expecting a softish landing.
Speaker 21: Yeah, yes, I think it'll be a very soft one,
Speaker 21: a very minor one. We've seen these types of recessions before,
Speaker 21: but I think it'll be a very very quiet and
Speaker 21: not anything like we saw in seventy three, seventy four,
Speaker 21: not anything like we saw in eighty one eighty two,
Speaker 21: not anything like we saw in nine. But it'll be
Speaker 21: a recession, and it'll be a quiet increase in over
Speaker 21: in the unemployment rate to probably four or five percent
Speaker 21: before it's done.
Speaker 11: What do you see with oil and gold in this
Speaker 11: new year?
Speaker 21: Gold is opening up very strongly right now, and I
Speaker 21: think gold wants to go from the lower left to
Speaker 21: the upper right. It's been a bull market for a while,
Speaker 21: and I think gold wants to go higher. Clearly. It's
Speaker 21: heading about twenty one thousand before before too long. I
Speaker 21: think it goes to twenty two or twenty three thousand
Speaker 21: before the year is out. I have been very bearish
Speaker 21: on crude oil for a while because the term structure
Speaker 21: has been overly overtly barished, with the front months leading
Speaker 21: on the downside and failing to gain upon the back
Speaker 21: months when the market when the market rallies. But now
Speaker 21: all of a sudden, we're starting to see the term
Speaker 21: structure beginning to change a little bit, and everybody's watching
Speaker 21: what's happening in the Gulf of Suez. I think that's
Speaker 21: only going to get worse, not better. And for the
Speaker 21: first time in months, I'm actually not bearish of crude oil.
Speaker 21: I'm starting to turn bullish of a time shall tell.
Speaker 21: But this is the first time in months that I've
Speaker 21: actually been have not been burished on the crude oil
Speaker 21: market because of the changing nature of the term structure.
Speaker 4: You are listening to Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief
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Speaker 11: I'm Amy Morris.
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