1 00:00:00,920 --> 00:00:05,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast, the number one show 2 00:00:05,320 --> 00:00:06,960 Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan. 3 00:00:08,680 --> 00:00:09,640 Speaker 2: All Right, here we go. 4 00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 3: Fifteen funny, twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five 5 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:24,240 Speaker 3: fifty and the kick is block the college football world stunner. 6 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, please stumbled the mumble the lateral to 7 00:00:32,920 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 1: the counter on the inside, don't you the lad take 8 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 1: them up the field to night. 9 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 3: It's not the sage on the dog in the fight, 10 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 3: it's the sage of the fight. 11 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 2: In the. 12 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 1: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Action Network podcast. 13 00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 1: This is the college football betting preview for Week twelve. 14 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 1: I'm stuck in with me, as always is Colin Wilson. 15 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:12,800 Speaker 1: I finally hit a mac bet last night, and I 16 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 1: don't know how. It was the most miraculous bet ever. 17 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:18,959 Speaker 2: Yeah. I'm back from Vegas and refreshed and happy to 18 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 2: see that Miami of Ohio can stop scoring for me 19 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:24,880 Speaker 2: so I can hit an under fifty one against Bowling Green, 20 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 2: Bowling Green. Most pathetic offensive formas I've seen in a 21 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:29,120 Speaker 2: long time. 22 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, mine, Ohio. Their offense actually woke up, but they 23 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:35,040 Speaker 1: were getting benefiting for more turnovers. I mean, the team 24 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:37,200 Speaker 1: is just not good. The MAC is crazy. I bet 25 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 1: on Accrod again and it went as you might expect 26 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 1: for those who listen to our morning Saturday morning show 27 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 1: at ten thirty am Eastern. I do have a little 28 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:46,840 Speaker 1: surprise and it might be a clown mask that I'll 29 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 1: be wearing, but acrid it becomes the first team ever 30 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:53,160 Speaker 1: to start a season oh and ten against the spread. 31 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 1: But yeah, I was happy to see that no one 32 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 1: else scored that game. I turned it off. I was like, 33 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:58,960 Speaker 1: there's no way this is going under and then I 34 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 1: would pull up the action and then I would say, 35 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:02,640 Speaker 1: all right, wait, still no score, Still no score, and 36 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 1: I wouldn't turn it on out of just superstition. So 37 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 1: that was one thing that went right last night. I'm 38 00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 1: so unlucky and had one of those unlucky college basketball nights, 39 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 1: and there'll be many of those, and lucky just last minute, 40 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:15,160 Speaker 1: random variant, so it was nice to have that one 41 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:16,680 Speaker 1: go my way. I think it's my first MAC bet 42 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 1: I've hit all year. But enough about the MAC. Nobody 43 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 1: cares about the MAC unless it's Tuesday or Wednesday, and 44 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:24,000 Speaker 1: you're listening to this on Nay. If you're listening live, 45 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 1: that's Thursday or on our podcast. It's Friday, and we 46 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:32,880 Speaker 1: have a beautiful college football slate here coming up on Saturday. 47 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 1: We'll go through conference by conference as we always do. 48 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:39,399 Speaker 1: We'll touch on our money line underdogs. We finally hit 49 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 1: two last week. It's a miracle. What thanks Western, Kentucky 50 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:46,919 Speaker 1: and LSU for getting it done. Colin, you don't have 51 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 1: to talk about your Hogs this week. They can't lose 52 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:51,280 Speaker 1: at least I don't think. So we'll get to our 53 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 1: favorite favorites and we'll also talk about Friday Night Lights 54 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 1: later as well. But let's stalk college football playoff. I 55 00:02:57,520 --> 00:02:59,240 Speaker 1: know we talked about this on a live show we 56 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:02,079 Speaker 1: did on Tuesday night, But do you really think that 57 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 1: the committee is just enabling Alabama to get in here 58 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:10,520 Speaker 1: putting them at five to back door and get in 59 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:11,800 Speaker 1: at the last minute. Is that what they're doing by 60 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 1: putting them five? 61 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 2: I mean you have to look at who could possibly 62 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 2: hop them and what their strength to schedule is the 63 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 2: rest of the way, because it's going to come into play, 64 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 2: right So Oklahoma pushed all the way down to tent, 65 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 2: they're still going to get Baylor, possibly twice. But you 66 00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 2: know how far is Baylor going to fall after oh 67 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 2: you beat them, if they potentially beat them, I believe, 68 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 2: you know, Iowa State's up there, so they've got some 69 00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:32,560 Speaker 2: teams in the top twenty five that Oklahoma's going to 70 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 2: be able to make up some ground. But I mean, 71 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:36,000 Speaker 2: you look at the PAC twelve and I hate to 72 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 2: say this because I have a lot of Utah futures, 73 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 2: right and I kind of want to see the PAC 74 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 2: twelve get into the playoff discussion. Again, it's just organ 75 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 2: in Utah, and if the committee values either of those 76 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 2: teams beating each other in the PAC twelve championship game, 77 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 2: then they should hop Alabama. I mean, who's Alabama beaten? Right? 78 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think Alabama is going to get 79 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 2: through Auburn, but I really hope we're not in scenario 80 00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:59,640 Speaker 2: where a one loss Alabama with basically a victory over 81 00:03:59,840 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 2: Auburn is the only thing they have a leg to 82 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:03,120 Speaker 2: stand on try to get to the playoff. 83 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:04,840 Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, basically, what I think it comes down 84 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 1: to is, you know, if you assume Clemson wins out therein, 85 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 1: you assume that Ohio State wins out therein and LSU, 86 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 1: they can afford one one more loss, I think. But 87 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:16,719 Speaker 1: let's just assume those three teams are in. So then 88 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 1: it comes down to does Georgia win the SEC championship 89 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 1: and they have to win out also and we'll get 90 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:25,680 Speaker 1: to the Georgia Auburn game this weekend. So if they 91 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:28,600 Speaker 1: do that, I think Georgia takes that last spot and 92 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:31,360 Speaker 1: LSU also gets in. If not, if LC wins the 93 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:33,840 Speaker 1: SEC championship game, it comes down to Alabama if they 94 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 1: went out with one loss, or you know, Oklahoma and 95 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 1: or the Pac twelve champion with one loss to who 96 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 1: do you take in that case a twelve and one 97 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 1: conference champion from the PAC twelve or Big twelve or 98 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 1: Alabama who didn't make it to the conference champion and 99 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 1: just has that aubur win. So it should be interesting. 100 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:52,719 Speaker 1: And if that happens, I mean, if you're just left 101 00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 1: with those three spots and you have two conference champions 102 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:59,080 Speaker 1: in Alabama, bow boy, there's going to be some heated people. 103 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: But we'll have much more on that. We'll have an 104 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:03,599 Speaker 1: article every week on the actionnwork dot com before we. 105 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 2: Get into the games. I really hope Alabama doesn't make 106 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:08,159 Speaker 2: the playoff because you and I both know the SEC 107 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:10,040 Speaker 2: team that doesn't make the college football playoff that goes 108 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:11,920 Speaker 2: to the Sugar Bowl is the hammer spot of the 109 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:12,799 Speaker 2: year to fade. 110 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:16,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, I remember Oklahoma just rolling Alabama. When was that 111 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 1: five years ago? And yeah that was beautiful, But yeah 112 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 1: by a great Texas last year against Georgia. All right, 113 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:27,760 Speaker 1: let's get into the marquee games the weekend. It's another 114 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:32,720 Speaker 1: fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out the marquee 115 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 1: matchups will all end up betting for Week twelve. There's 116 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 1: two I think main games that I would consider marquis 117 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 1: this weekend. Those are between Oklahoma Baylor and Georgia Auburn. 118 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 1: These are playoff elimination games because you could make you know, 119 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 1: if Georgia loses, they're out. If Auburn loses, they're obviously 120 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:55,400 Speaker 1: done too, because you could make an outside case that 121 00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 1: maybe Auburn I don't think so, but obviously if they lose, 122 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:01,320 Speaker 1: their out. So that's a PLAYOFFU lilimited game. And so 123 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:03,799 Speaker 1: is Oklahoma Baylor. I mean, Baylor is sitting at thirteen. 124 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 1: They're going to need a ton of help to get there, 125 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 1: but they need to win out to even have a prayer. 126 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 1: And if Oklahoma loses this to drop their second bay 127 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 1: are completely done, and then it's really between the Pac 128 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:16,160 Speaker 1: twelve champion Alabama or does Georgia win the SEC. Let's 129 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:20,520 Speaker 1: start with Oklahoma Baylor. Look, I haven't been a believer 130 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:22,200 Speaker 1: in that. I love Matt rule, but I haven't been 131 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:23,760 Speaker 1: a believer in this Baylor team is you know, a 132 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 1: top seven or eight team all year, and there's a 133 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 1: reason for that, you know. I see some potential weaknesses 134 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:31,960 Speaker 1: in their past defense. I mean, they don't give up 135 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 1: big plays, I do have to say that, but you 136 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:36,040 Speaker 1: can efficiently move the ball against them. But if you 137 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 1: look at some of the results, they had two lucky 138 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:40,960 Speaker 1: overtime wins. I mean, I'm still in shock that I 139 00:06:41,000 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 1: lost that TCU game last week when their joe beat 140 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:47,040 Speaker 1: Baylor's joe kicker, you know, and a fourth down he 141 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:49,160 Speaker 1: made a field goal to force overtime, and it was 142 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:51,280 Speaker 1: just a mess. And they won another overtime game and 143 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:53,840 Speaker 1: a controversial call against Texas Tech, and then they barely 144 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 1: beat Rice. So the resume isn't great. And then you know, 145 00:06:57,120 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 1: Oklahoma lost to Kansas State in convincing fashion, and then 146 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:03,040 Speaker 1: you know, I had to survive at two point conversion 147 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:05,040 Speaker 1: against Iowa State. In fairness to them, they were up 148 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:07,480 Speaker 1: twenty one in that game, and you know, i Was 149 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 1: State made a furious comeback. If you look at the 150 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:12,640 Speaker 1: advanced metrics again, it's Oakland and I said this last 151 00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 1: week at Oklahoma. Their defense again, it's there's some worrying 152 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 1: stats and it's mainly giving up huge explosive plays. And 153 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 1: if there's one thing to worry about with Baylor, it's 154 00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:26,040 Speaker 1: them hitting explosive plays. So I think that Oklahoma's going 155 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 1: to be able to move the ball and they're gonna 156 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 1: be able to move the ball through the air. You know. 157 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 1: They're number one in rushing success, number two in passing success, 158 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 1: you know, and Baylor has questions on the offensive line. 159 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 1: I think Oklahoma can pressure quarterback and I think that 160 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 1: they can cause some havoc. It's a really aggressive defense, 161 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 1: but they're going to be vulnerable to Baylor big plays. 162 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 1: And Baylor's an opportunity to hit a lot of explosive 163 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 1: plays against this Oklahoma team. This line's currently sitting at 164 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:52,160 Speaker 1: Oklahoma minus ten. It's the we'll touch ten and a 165 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 1: half with some books. I think it's going to hang 166 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 1: out around there. What do you see here? 167 00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 2: All the advanced metrics that you talked about right spot on. 168 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:00,960 Speaker 2: So I mean Oklahoma kind of got by brock party 169 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,080 Speaker 2: sooners were cruising at fourteen. Just at any point in 170 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:05,560 Speaker 2: the game, it seemed like they were up by fourteen, 171 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:07,520 Speaker 2: which is exactly where the point spread was. And then 172 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 2: under five minutes left just a blitz. It was an 173 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 2: Iowa State explosive pass for thirty three yards for a TD. 174 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 2: An interception later and then we got another TD and 175 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 2: we're going for a two point conversion to you know, 176 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 2: knock Oklahoma out of the national picture, you know, and 177 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 2: that seems to be how to attack Oklahoma, you know, 178 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:26,200 Speaker 2: make Jalen Hurts uncomfortable. Oh, you had plenty of passes defense, 179 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:28,200 Speaker 2: but they didn't have any sacks and they only had 180 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 2: two and a half tackles for loss, so they weren't 181 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:32,400 Speaker 2: getting into the backfield whatsoever. And the thing is Alex 182 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 2: Grinch kind of built this defense upon calling it to 183 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:37,679 Speaker 2: speed d you know, upon effort. It's all about effort, 184 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:39,680 Speaker 2: it's not about scheme. And I'm wondering where the effort 185 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:41,840 Speaker 2: is here because there's been a couple of games where 186 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 2: ou has not just been able to lock it down 187 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:46,559 Speaker 2: and keep teams from coming back, you know, and it's 188 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 2: a unit that's nineteenth in sac rate. So where has 189 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 2: this Oklahoma effort been on the defensive side of the ball. 190 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 2: And you know, the Oklahoma offense needs to quit putting 191 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:58,000 Speaker 2: these teams in position to expose the defense. So, you know, Baylor, 192 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 2: like you said, they have serious rush explos from this 193 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:02,880 Speaker 2: advantage in this game. That's something I Aloway State didn't have. 194 00:09:02,920 --> 00:09:04,880 Speaker 2: They're not that good on the ground as far you know, 195 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:06,839 Speaker 2: losing David Montgomery. They just don't have a rushing attack. 196 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:09,840 Speaker 2: It's all brought pretty. Baylor's sixteenth and runs over twenty yards, 197 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:12,480 Speaker 2: oh used defenses outside the top one hundred and allowing 198 00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 2: gains over twenty yards on the ground. And Jalen Hurs 199 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 2: just hasn't handled pressure well this season at all. And 200 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:21,000 Speaker 2: Baylor's twenty first and sack right. So for me, you know, 201 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:22,560 Speaker 2: I think the numbers spot on. I made it nine 202 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:25,439 Speaker 2: point nine. I'm looking under in this game because it 203 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:26,960 Speaker 2: seems like if the teams are going to have success, 204 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 2: it's going to be on the ground. So generally that 205 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:30,320 Speaker 2: heat a bunch of clock. I do have a protected 206 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:32,320 Speaker 2: just a little bit. I think exactly just a point 207 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:34,320 Speaker 2: or two below the sixty eight that it's currently at. 208 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:37,319 Speaker 2: But you know, a Baylor under this offense is Baylor 209 00:09:37,400 --> 00:09:40,120 Speaker 2: offense has just been atrocious, you know. I mean, this 210 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:42,920 Speaker 2: is West Virginia game. They were limited and explosive plays. 211 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:45,480 Speaker 2: That was Halloween night, they had, you know, had a 212 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:47,319 Speaker 2: field goal there to end that game. And then last 213 00:09:47,320 --> 00:09:50,480 Speaker 2: week somehow TCU Baylor goes over but there were no 214 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:53,320 Speaker 2: touchdowns in regulation. One of the worst overs I've ever 215 00:09:53,360 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 2: seen in my entire life. So I don't trust the 216 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:58,200 Speaker 2: Baylor offense. I do trust their defense, So I actually 217 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:00,320 Speaker 2: probably going to look under in this game. But I 218 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:02,440 Speaker 2: can't trust my money on OU right now. I mean, 219 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:04,400 Speaker 2: if they're not going to have any effort on defense, 220 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:06,440 Speaker 2: which is what the scheme is based upon, I can't 221 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 2: back o you right now. 222 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I've them in a money line parlay 223 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 1: with a game that we'll get to later. I think 224 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:12,760 Speaker 1: that they're gonna win this game. I mean I make 225 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 1: them over a ten point favorite, and I think that 226 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 1: where they'll win this game is upfront with their defensive line. 227 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 1: Baylor offensive line has major question marks. That was the 228 00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:23,640 Speaker 1: unit that had the most questions coming into the season. 229 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 1: They're one hundred and third and sack rate and you 230 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:29,360 Speaker 1: mentioned Oklahoma's d's top twenty and then stuff, right, they're 231 00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:32,840 Speaker 1: outside the top ninety and Oklahoma is number five in 232 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 1: the country. So they're gonna get some third and one, 233 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:36,680 Speaker 1: fourth and one stops and I think that they're going 234 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:39,800 Speaker 1: to get to Brewer, you know, have get a couple 235 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:42,560 Speaker 1: of sacks, maybe cause a fumble, get them in third 236 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:46,040 Speaker 1: and long situations, and I think ultimately that's the difference. 237 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:47,719 Speaker 1: But Baylor will make this interesting because they're going to 238 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:50,559 Speaker 1: hit explosive plays against the Oklahoma defense. It's one hundred 239 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:53,880 Speaker 1: and twenty seventh defending rush explosiveness and eighty seventh in 240 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:56,720 Speaker 1: past exploseness. It's an aggressive D and they're you know 241 00:10:56,760 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 1: that you can get them on the back end. All right, 242 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 1: let's talk talk about the other Marquee game on Saturday, 243 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 1: and it's the SEC showdown between Georgia and Auburn. Auburn 244 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 1: finally gets one of these games at home. It feels 245 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:13,720 Speaker 1: like they're always on the road for these games. This 246 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 1: is the three thirty CBS game, so you know, all 247 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:20,200 Speaker 1: eyes will be on it. If you look at this 248 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 1: Georgia offense and defense every time I see them. And 249 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:26,280 Speaker 1: by the way, they really haven't played anybody this year. 250 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 1: I mean, they beat Florida. There was a controversial call 251 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:30,320 Speaker 1: in that game. They hung around, you know, and they 252 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:32,960 Speaker 1: ended up winning by seven, twenty four to seventeen. But 253 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:35,120 Speaker 1: other than that, you know, they beat Arkansas State, Notre 254 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 1: Dame at home by six, Mary State, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, they 255 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:42,800 Speaker 1: lost to South Carolina, they beat Kentucky twenty one to nothing. 256 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 1: They beat Missouri without Kelly Bryant, their top receiver. And 257 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 1: what I can coming back to is they're just really 258 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:52,080 Speaker 1: really good and really really solid. But they don't do 259 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:55,920 Speaker 1: anything explosive on either side of the ball, right, So 260 00:11:55,960 --> 00:11:58,720 Speaker 1: there's no explosiveness at all on this offense, and there's 261 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 1: no havoc on the defense. They just you know, they're 262 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 1: they're havoc. I think is what their top forty or something. 263 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 1: But this isn't your typical Georgia defense with a Rokwan 264 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:10,160 Speaker 1: Smith or a star safety that's going to make a 265 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:12,800 Speaker 1: huge play. And we've been saying that all year. Meanwhile, 266 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:16,640 Speaker 1: this Auburn team is really solid. They're they're also you know, 267 00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 1: struggle in the passing game. They don't have much explosioness 268 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,559 Speaker 1: in the passing game. But I think bow Knicks is 269 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 1: obviously it's off of a buy is going to be 270 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 1: more comfortable at home. You know, he's more seasoned now, 271 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:28,319 Speaker 1: he's got a lot of games under his belt, and 272 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:31,880 Speaker 1: you know, Gus with two weeks to prepare here, I 273 00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:33,600 Speaker 1: think he's going to cook up some things and hit 274 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:36,520 Speaker 1: some explosive plays because I think this Alburn defense is 275 00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 1: just as good as the Georgia defense, just as good 276 00:12:40,520 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 1: the Georgia offense. Their offensive line is the best in 277 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 1: the nation, but all you could argue Auburn's defensive line 278 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:48,319 Speaker 1: is as well. The Georgia offensive overall is probably a 279 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:51,960 Speaker 1: little better. You know, more season quarterback, bow Knicks season, 280 00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 1: the full effect. But if Auburn could just cook up, 281 00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:59,080 Speaker 1: you know, a couple of trick plays, a couple explosive 282 00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 1: plays that you know Guss is gonna come with, I 283 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 1: think that Auburn could come out and hit this Georgia 284 00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:06,520 Speaker 1: team in the mouth with a couple big plays. I'm 285 00:13:06,520 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 1: looking at Auburn first half here, because this Georgia team, 286 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:11,920 Speaker 1: you just hit a couple of big plays and they're 287 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 1: not built to come back and they're not gonna you know, 288 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:18,440 Speaker 1: hit eighty yard touchdowns. They're just grinding now. They're really 289 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:22,640 Speaker 1: solid everywhere you look outside of just explosiveness in big 290 00:13:22,640 --> 00:13:27,319 Speaker 1: plays on defense, this line is floating between Georgia minus 291 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:28,560 Speaker 1: two and a half and minus three. 292 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 2: What do you see here? Yeah, I think Auburn first half. 293 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:35,199 Speaker 2: Actually money line is actually not a bad play here 294 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:37,960 Speaker 2: because of the I mean, if you listen to the podcast, 295 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 2: you're gonna hear me harp and bitch about this is 296 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:42,680 Speaker 2: the conservative play calling nature of Georgia in the first half. 297 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 2: You know, I know, Coley's their new offensive coordinator. Cheney 298 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:48,560 Speaker 2: moved on to Tennessee. That was, you know, pretty much 299 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:50,560 Speaker 2: a Kirby smart move. He wanted some you know, difference 300 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 2: in play calling. But it hasn't been really what I 301 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:55,680 Speaker 2: thought it was gonna be coming into the season. I 302 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 2: know that there were problems with finding targets for Jake 303 00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:00,959 Speaker 2: fromm but I mean, Georgia and the half has been 304 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:02,560 Speaker 2: a completely different team than what we've seen in the 305 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:05,240 Speaker 2: second half. So starting, you know, Malson's eleven in a 306 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:07,360 Speaker 2: lifetime in a bye week in his head coaching career. 307 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:08,960 Speaker 2: That's something to think of. I mean, we're not big 308 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 2: trends players or anything, but I mean Malson proves that 309 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:14,319 Speaker 2: with extra time he can't show up. I think back 310 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:17,240 Speaker 2: to that Music City Bowl when he had motivation and 311 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 2: he was pissed off and the fan base wanted him 312 00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:21,280 Speaker 2: to get the hell out of town. He shows up 313 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:23,040 Speaker 2: to the Music City Bowl and runs Purdue up a 314 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:26,080 Speaker 2: flag pole. So when Malson's got time and he's motivated, 315 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 2: things happened. Kirby Smart's five and two in his lifetime 316 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:30,320 Speaker 2: as a coordinator and a head coach going up against 317 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 2: a Malason offense. If you're gonna look at little, small 318 00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 2: sample sets like that, the Auburn players are highly motivated 319 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:38,840 Speaker 2: for this game. Georgia has a wide receiver. I think 320 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:43,400 Speaker 2: he's number two interceptions on the team. George Pickens, he 321 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 2: was a commit to Auburn for eighteen months. He switched 322 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:49,400 Speaker 2: to Georgia on signing day. Maleson the even went on 323 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 2: record and mentioned about you know a player that switches 324 00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 2: on the day of signing day. He was pretty upset 325 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 2: about it. And some of the players had made friends 326 00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 2: with Pickens and they were friends with him too, and 327 00:14:57,480 --> 00:14:59,640 Speaker 2: they were pretty burned by it. So I think Auburn's 328 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:02,680 Speaker 2: going to be hella fired up for this game a 329 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:05,800 Speaker 2: little bit, maybe more than Georgia, but you know, Georgia 330 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:08,200 Speaker 2: health wise is really kind of where I've been watching 331 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 2: all this week. I thought that I would get a 332 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:11,800 Speaker 2: play in on the app and get some money down 333 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 2: on some sides on this game. But I mean, when 334 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 2: the offensive line loses three players in the middle of 335 00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:19,840 Speaker 2: the game to injury, when they lose their you know, 336 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 2: one of the top centers in the country, and Trey 337 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 2: Hill to injury, and Lawrence Cagor, who is the best 338 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:26,320 Speaker 2: target on the outside, he also got hurt in the game. 339 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:28,480 Speaker 2: They were all clear to practice this week. They all 340 00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:31,080 Speaker 2: did practice this week, but I'm still a little nervous 341 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 2: because they all left the game. You know, got ankles 342 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 2: going on with offensive linemen. So it's definitely something to 343 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 2: watch for. And really that leads into what you said, 344 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:40,520 Speaker 2: These defenses are awesome, right, I mean, each defense has 345 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 2: a better advanced stat than the opposing offense, or is 346 00:15:43,440 --> 00:15:45,800 Speaker 2: anything I can say about passing success or rushing success. 347 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:48,440 Speaker 2: The defense is better and that goes for both sides. 348 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 2: So going through advanced box scores, I get back to 349 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:53,440 Speaker 2: what I first started with. Auburn's fourth quarter success rate 350 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 2: has been below the national average. While Kirby smart since 351 00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 2: twenty seventeen, we've always known that, Like his third quarter 352 00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:01,840 Speaker 2: smp plus rank in twenty seventeen is like best in 353 00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:04,560 Speaker 2: the nation, top five on defense, like number one on offense, 354 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 2: and that just hasn't changed. Like every year he has 355 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 2: been a second half head coach, he's always been one 356 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 2: of the best, and it kind of leads into this year. 357 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:14,240 Speaker 2: Conservative play calling in the first half, he opens it 358 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:16,960 Speaker 2: up in the second half. So for me, this is 359 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:18,840 Speaker 2: a game where I don't want to take any game, 360 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:21,520 Speaker 2: take any position pregame. I kind of want to go 361 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:23,320 Speaker 2: with the flow of it. I expect Georgia to start 362 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:25,400 Speaker 2: slow and conservative. I don't expect there to be a 363 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:26,280 Speaker 2: lot of points. 364 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:26,680 Speaker 1: In the first quarter. 365 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 2: I'll be looking for an over end game once the 366 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 2: time comes right. But I think forty is a little 367 00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:34,120 Speaker 2: bit too high right now. And then then again, that's 368 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 2: a total that's just so slim. Where a Gus Malson 369 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 2: trick play which you know he's going to run, and 370 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:44,160 Speaker 2: a special teams which Georgia is excellent returning punts and 371 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 2: that forty's toast if you take the under, So I'm 372 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 2: not real comfortable doing that, but I am going to 373 00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:50,120 Speaker 2: look for a live over, maybe try to get plus 374 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:51,400 Speaker 2: three on both sides, but I just don't think I'm 375 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 2: going to touch the side because you and I both 376 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 2: have big Georgia futures. This is a must win for 377 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 2: those Georgia futures. So I'm happier just to let the 378 00:16:58,120 --> 00:16:59,800 Speaker 2: game be conservative in the first half and take an 379 00:16:59,800 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 2: over for some time lives. 380 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 1: It's odd because I think that Auburn has more big 381 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 1: play potential in their defense and there I think by 382 00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:07,199 Speaker 1: the end of the season they're hav it will be 383 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 1: more than Georgia. But Georgia has a more season quarterback, 384 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 1: right who's not as you know, he's not gonna make 385 00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:17,320 Speaker 1: He's not as likely to make a mistake as bow 386 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:22,159 Speaker 1: knicks would bow nixt season then full effect. But they 387 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:24,119 Speaker 1: show you how good the Auburn defense is else use 388 00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 1: averaging forty six points per game, and that is what 389 00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 1: they got on the dot against Alabama at Alabama. Well, LSU, 390 00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:37,960 Speaker 1: when they played Auburn at home, only scored twenty three points. 391 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:40,000 Speaker 1: Now I know that five hundred yards, but they had 392 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 1: a ton of plays in that game. It was an 393 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 1: odd game. It was twenty three to twenty. The most 394 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:45,680 Speaker 1: important thing there is Auburn had LSU to five point 395 00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:51,680 Speaker 1: eight yards per play. That is significantly below their season average. 396 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 1: You know, for comparison against Alabama, LSU again, this is 397 00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:59,160 Speaker 1: on the road. LSU averaged seven point one yards per play, 398 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:01,680 Speaker 1: so almost a yard and a half more than they 399 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:05,200 Speaker 1: did against Auburn. The Auburn defense is legit. So yeah, 400 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 1: I think I'm going to be on Auburn in some 401 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:09,399 Speaker 1: form or fashion. I think this look, I have Georgia futures. 402 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 1: I'd love for them to win out, but this team 403 00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:15,119 Speaker 1: is vulnerable. Once against an elite team just lacking explosedness 404 00:18:15,119 --> 00:18:17,360 Speaker 1: and big plays on defense, it's going to come back 405 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:19,400 Speaker 1: to bite them once they turn it over. And then 406 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 1: you know, an offense like Auburn has something cooked up 407 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:25,000 Speaker 1: and hits a couple explosive plays. I think it's going 408 00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:27,920 Speaker 1: to be the death of them because they're just they're 409 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:29,720 Speaker 1: not blowing teams out, and look it cost them against 410 00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:32,439 Speaker 1: South Carolina. So I think Auburn finds a way to 411 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:34,720 Speaker 1: pull it out. All right, let's go conference by conference 412 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:36,120 Speaker 1: to go through. We'll pick out a couple of games 413 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 1: that we like. Let's start in the AAC. Do you 414 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 1: want to hit Notre Dame Navy now or wait till 415 00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 1: the Independence. 416 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 2: No, I will just go and say Notre Dame Navy now. 417 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:47,600 Speaker 2: Is like you know, I had a piece out earlier 418 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:50,160 Speaker 2: this week, Navy was the very I was at Circus 419 00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:52,399 Speaker 2: Sports at the desk at the Golden Gate downtown in 420 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:55,000 Speaker 2: Las Vegas. It hadn't been put out, hadn't been tweeted 421 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 2: out that the numbers were available, but they were nice 422 00:18:57,359 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 2: enough to print them out and come bring them to 423 00:18:58,600 --> 00:18:59,840 Speaker 2: me and say, Colin, here you go. We know why 424 00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:01,679 Speaker 2: are here. And I mean everybody in the in the 425 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:04,200 Speaker 2: book was there for the NFL. And I'm in there 426 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 2: with a laptop and my numbers, my projections and everything 427 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:10,399 Speaker 2: and my totals, and they were nice enough. Shout out 428 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:12,480 Speaker 2: to Jeffrey Benson for bringing those over to me and saying, 429 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,000 Speaker 2: here you go if you're ready to go. And Navy 430 00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:16,960 Speaker 2: plus eleven is the first one that poked out to 431 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:18,840 Speaker 2: me and I got up immediately and went to the 432 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:20,919 Speaker 2: counter and threw a dime over. Had no problems with it. 433 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:25,520 Speaker 2: Navy is extremely underrated on defense and in the trench, 434 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:28,159 Speaker 2: I mean triple option. This Malcolm Perry that I mean, 435 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 2: Malcolm Perry was one of our favorite things to talk 436 00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 2: about two years ago, right, Malcolm Perry was the greatest 437 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 2: thing ever, and then he let us down last year. 438 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:35,880 Speaker 2: And now he's back, not only just throwing the ball, 439 00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:38,399 Speaker 2: running the ball. Navy is everything that we can expect 440 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:40,679 Speaker 2: him to be as a dynamic offense. But really the 441 00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:43,240 Speaker 2: defense is not getting enough credit for how great they've 442 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:45,600 Speaker 2: been in the trench. All of the advanced stats show it. 443 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 2: You know, I've got a power rate it down. So 444 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 2: I definitely like Navy in the spot. And if you 445 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:50,520 Speaker 2: want to get it, I think now's the time to 446 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 2: get it, because this is a prime opportunity for Navy 447 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:55,320 Speaker 2: to really make a statement. Already ranked in the College 448 00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:58,480 Speaker 2: Football Playoff rankings, I mean, the Navy looks fantastic. I 449 00:19:58,480 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 2: think they might be the best team in the AC 450 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:02,160 Speaker 2: and I think they're going to take a major jump here. 451 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 2: I think they could beat Notre Dame and they would 452 00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:06,000 Speaker 2: take a major jump. And even there could be some 453 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 2: talking heads about Navy playing in the Cotton Bowl, which 454 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:10,240 Speaker 2: would be just an awesome thing to say. 455 00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:12,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, the one thing that gives me pause is, look, 456 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 1: Navy's defense has been it's probably the most improved unit 457 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:17,320 Speaker 1: in the country, and they had a new coordinator there. 458 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:19,440 Speaker 1: They used to play ben don't break. Now they're playing 459 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:22,320 Speaker 1: a very aggressive style of defense. But the one thing 460 00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 1: that gives me pause, I mean, if you do look 461 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:27,080 Speaker 1: at Navy's schedule, they've played a bunch of clowns, and 462 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:28,960 Speaker 1: you know, when they've played a bunch of clowns, they've 463 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:31,520 Speaker 1: shut them down, you know, So my concern is their 464 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 1: past defense. I do think they're gonna be able to 465 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 1: move the ball on the ground, and a triple option 466 00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:38,520 Speaker 1: team catching over a touchdown is always intriguing to me. 467 00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:41,240 Speaker 1: But and you know, don't sleep in the loss of 468 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:44,920 Speaker 1: Julia Nakuara for Notre Dame. That hurts on their defensive line. 469 00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:46,800 Speaker 1: I do want to still try and dig in is 470 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 1: into is Notre Dame going to be able to just 471 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,440 Speaker 1: hit a ton of explosive plays down the field, because 472 00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:54,000 Speaker 1: that's the one thing that I still don't believe in 473 00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:56,199 Speaker 1: with this Navy team, because the two teams that they 474 00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 1: played that ken hit explosive plays down the field. Did 475 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:01,600 Speaker 1: just that. Secondary is my main concern against the Notre 476 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 1: Dame athletes. That is what I need to look into. 477 00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:07,120 Speaker 2: Navy is number one in the country in red zone 478 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:10,160 Speaker 2: touchdown scoring. They get into the twenty, they're getting six, 479 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:12,959 Speaker 2: and I mean that's tremendous. If you're trying to look 480 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:14,439 Speaker 2: at a over or if you're trying to look at 481 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,600 Speaker 2: a Navy cover. They are not settling for field goals ever. 482 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:19,879 Speaker 2: And then I mean number one of the country is fantastic. 483 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,800 Speaker 1: All right, Let's move on in the AAC and talk 484 00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:26,679 Speaker 1: two lane Temple. This line's risen. It's open to three 485 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,120 Speaker 1: three and a half, it's up to six over under 486 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:30,640 Speaker 1: his drop from fifty five and a half to fifty 487 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:31,920 Speaker 1: four and a half. We talk about this all the time. 488 00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:34,400 Speaker 1: Temple just covers. It doesn't matter who's the coach, who's 489 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 1: the quarterback, what their stats say, they just always consistently cover. 490 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 1: It is crazy. I mean, if you look back the 491 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 1: last fifteen years, they've been the most profitable dog. They're 492 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 1: a home dog here two six and three teams. What 493 00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:50,359 Speaker 1: are you seeing here between two lane and Temple? Is there? 494 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:52,240 Speaker 1: Does this line going up too much? Is there no 495 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 1: value on the owls, are you're gonna be tweeting algifs 496 00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:55,400 Speaker 1: for a noon kick again. 497 00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:57,360 Speaker 2: I mean, I think the line's gone up too much. 498 00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 2: And I'm supposed to back Temple here because if you 499 00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:01,000 Speaker 2: look at two lane history, you know, it shows that 500 00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:03,240 Speaker 2: they're not that great on the road winning games, and 501 00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:06,000 Speaker 2: Temple's excellent at home, especially in a day game like this. 502 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:07,879 Speaker 2: But I think there's just too much in the advanced 503 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:09,720 Speaker 2: status that kind of throw me in two laneses way. 504 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 2: I mean, you know, two lanes offense is top ten 505 00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:15,879 Speaker 2: and so many offensive categories where Temple's d is just 506 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:19,840 Speaker 2: ranking inside the top twenty five. I mean, justin McMillan 507 00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:22,040 Speaker 2: is a force this year. You look at them their 508 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:25,879 Speaker 2: eleventh and rushing success rate, their seventeenth and rushing explosiveness, 509 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,000 Speaker 2: and they're thirty second in passing success and that's all McMillan. 510 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:31,000 Speaker 2: I mean, he's a true dual threat. And if you 511 00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:33,719 Speaker 2: look at Temple, you know they've had problems against teams 512 00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:35,440 Speaker 2: that you know, have been able to get it down 513 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:36,840 Speaker 2: the field. The teams that have been able to throw 514 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 2: it down the field SMU, Memphis, Central Florida, they all 515 00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:42,440 Speaker 2: had big success in the air against Temple and were 516 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,359 Speaker 2: able to beat them. I think the number has gotten 517 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,080 Speaker 2: too high because of the value of what I projected 518 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:50,200 Speaker 2: it at. Now that it's gone way past my projection 519 00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:52,239 Speaker 2: of thirteen, I'm going to come around on the other 520 00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:53,440 Speaker 2: side and hopefully I can middle. 521 00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:58,240 Speaker 1: Donovan Jennings, which is their left tackle, is a really 522 00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:01,200 Speaker 1: important piece and with you know, you saw as soon 523 00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:04,880 Speaker 1: as he went out against Temple, Temple just abused him, 524 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,320 Speaker 1: so him being back is huge. All right, let's move 525 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:12,439 Speaker 1: on to the acc We have Clemson thirty four and 526 00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 1: a half thirty four point favorites against wake Forest and 527 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:19,440 Speaker 1: you know, one of the big you know, the big 528 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:22,760 Speaker 1: pieces of news here with wake Forest, who cannot run 529 00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:24,600 Speaker 1: the ball worth a lick and they're not gonna be 530 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:27,359 Speaker 1: able to run the ball against Clemson is you know, 531 00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:30,840 Speaker 1: Scottie Washington is questionable. But they lost their star receiver 532 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 1: Sarah for the year, so now their passing offense could 533 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,280 Speaker 1: be potentially limited. What are you seeing here in this matchup? 534 00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:39,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this number is overinflated. Of course, it's 535 00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:41,359 Speaker 2: like plan. You know, you have to pay at Clemson 536 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,560 Speaker 2: tax every time you want to play them, you know, 537 00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:45,359 Speaker 2: And I have a total set at sixty six, so 538 00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 2: possible over But the question is is what will wakes 539 00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:52,320 Speaker 2: passing attack be able to do against Clemson's defense. Clemson's 540 00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:55,080 Speaker 2: third and defensive passing success rate, So this is a 541 00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:57,840 Speaker 2: great test, you know, as great as the Clemson can 542 00:23:57,920 --> 00:23:59,600 Speaker 2: get out of the acc as far as going up 543 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:03,399 Speaker 2: against a successful passing attack. You know, in Wake is 544 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:06,600 Speaker 2: twenty second in passing success and their tenth and sacarate allowed, 545 00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,200 Speaker 2: so they're not allowing anybody to get to the quarterback. 546 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:10,919 Speaker 2: Wake's able to throw the ball down the field, so 547 00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:13,280 Speaker 2: it'll be a good test for Clemson's defense. This is 548 00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:15,680 Speaker 2: another great matchup for Trevor Lawrence to get deep. Wake 549 00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 2: is one hundred and seventh and pass explosiveness allowed. Trevor's 550 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:20,840 Speaker 2: gonna be able to get you know, as many throwing 551 00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:23,119 Speaker 2: tds he wants before he takes a seat. So I'm 552 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,879 Speaker 2: looking for an over here. But it really depends on 553 00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:28,280 Speaker 2: Wake's passing success. That's the decision between the now, the 554 00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:32,200 Speaker 2: time we're recording until when kickoff happens. Do I think 555 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:34,440 Speaker 2: that Wake can get some points up on the board 556 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,919 Speaker 2: throwing the ball against his Clemson defense. This Clemson defense, 557 00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:39,800 Speaker 2: I love them more than I think any other defense 558 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:41,360 Speaker 2: in the nation. And I'm going to be backing these 559 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,119 Speaker 2: guys in college football playoff. I'm almost one hundred percent sure. 560 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:46,600 Speaker 2: So if I think wake can get some points up, 561 00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:47,760 Speaker 2: that's the reason I'll take an over. 562 00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:50,560 Speaker 1: I would err on the side of question. I mean 563 00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,480 Speaker 1: I would it's tough with wake farest. I mean it 564 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:55,840 Speaker 1: looks like I'm looking here, Scotty Washington's actually gonna be 565 00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 1: out and he has seven touchdowns, the second on the team. 566 00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:00,720 Speaker 1: First on the team is Sirop out for the year, 567 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:02,879 Speaker 1: so they're not gonna have their top two receivers and 568 00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:04,600 Speaker 1: sarat is one of five receivers in the country with 569 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:06,840 Speaker 1: over one thousand receiving yards, so they don't have both 570 00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:09,800 Speaker 1: of them. They can't run it. It could be a 571 00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:11,680 Speaker 1: long day for Wake Forest. And what we saw last week, 572 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:13,680 Speaker 1: Dabo apparently just wants he wants to run off the 573 00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,720 Speaker 1: score now against NC State, you know, running hurry up 574 00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:19,480 Speaker 1: to get an extra touchdown in that was brutal. Rp 575 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:23,600 Speaker 1: anyone who bet that second half under. I'm probably back 576 00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 1: on the two, but this is a joke. Their schedule 577 00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:27,679 Speaker 1: another thirty four and a half point favorite, all right, 578 00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:30,359 Speaker 1: elsewhere in the ACC Again, it's really interesting to me, 579 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 1: and it just smells, right, is Georgia Tech catching sex? 580 00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:36,320 Speaker 1: And one I have to give a lot of credit 581 00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:39,719 Speaker 1: to Jeff Collins, right, So he came in in probably 582 00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:44,320 Speaker 1: the toughest chore of any college football coach I've seen 583 00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 1: in a long long time, and that's transitioning a team 584 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,040 Speaker 1: with from an optriple option to a spread attack. With 585 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:54,760 Speaker 1: all triple option personnel, they're not suited to this spread offense. 586 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,000 Speaker 1: It was ugly early on they lost to the Citadel. 587 00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:00,280 Speaker 1: They scored two points versus Temple. But David play saying 588 00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:04,000 Speaker 1: better lately and obviously they're getting used to this new 589 00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:07,560 Speaker 1: scheme and they're still fighting for Jeff Collins, which is 590 00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:09,639 Speaker 1: a lot of credit to him. You know, look, they 591 00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:11,720 Speaker 1: won at Miami. There was a bunch of flukes, but 592 00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:14,080 Speaker 1: they still won at Miami. We've seen what Miami's done 593 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,680 Speaker 1: the past two weeks. And then last week they played 594 00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:20,000 Speaker 1: Uva really tough. They lost thirty three to twenty eight 595 00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:23,879 Speaker 1: in Charlottesville. So this team is still fighting. And you know, 596 00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:28,080 Speaker 1: they had a quarterback change and you know they went 597 00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:31,280 Speaker 1: with this kid Graham, who actually is I think committed 598 00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:34,040 Speaker 1: to or was at Virginia Tech at one point, and 599 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:35,840 Speaker 1: you know, they're averaging I think twenty two twenty three 600 00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:38,240 Speaker 1: points with him, we're averaging only thirteen with that before 601 00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:40,440 Speaker 1: he took over the starting job. So their offense is 602 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:43,360 Speaker 1: getting a little better, their defense is still fighting, their 603 00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 1: offense is still very limited, and Vautech's also playing a 604 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:48,800 Speaker 1: lot better of late as well. And they control their 605 00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:52,640 Speaker 1: own destiny in the ACC Coastal. That's insane. Vau Tech, 606 00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:55,560 Speaker 1: this team that we were all laughing at geting ran 607 00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:58,280 Speaker 1: out of the building against Duke at home earlier this year. 608 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:01,960 Speaker 1: The ACC is crazy. Number One, what do you make Clemson, 609 00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:04,359 Speaker 1: va Tech and the ACC championship if that happens? Number two, 610 00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:05,120 Speaker 1: what do you think of this game? 611 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:08,200 Speaker 2: What is it like to have a coach have two 612 00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:14,160 Speaker 2: wins and have every single player completely focused, committed, executing 613 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:16,240 Speaker 2: and playing hard. I don't know what that's like because 614 00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:18,320 Speaker 2: I have a two win team myself. That's the difference 615 00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:20,359 Speaker 2: between Gorgia Tech and Arkansas right now. So these guys 616 00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:23,120 Speaker 2: at Georgia Tech are responding to Jeff Collins. They're playing 617 00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:24,639 Speaker 2: as hard as they can. It's one of the biggest 618 00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:27,720 Speaker 2: schematic transitions that a team could ever go through on 619 00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:29,720 Speaker 2: both sides of the ball. So Georgia Tech is going 620 00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:31,320 Speaker 2: to be good. I don't know if we hit their 621 00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:34,720 Speaker 2: over team total over next year, but you know, I 622 00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:36,280 Speaker 2: mean it's definitely something we're going to keep our eyes on, 623 00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:38,639 Speaker 2: especially through spring practice. But in this game, I mean, 624 00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:40,760 Speaker 2: Virginia Tech's on a bit of a heater themselves. They've 625 00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:43,119 Speaker 2: covered four their last five. They limited Jamie Newton, the 626 00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:46,960 Speaker 2: quarterback for Wake. There's just a few explosive passes and 627 00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:49,680 Speaker 2: a Hoky's victory there, and so you know, Georgie Tech 628 00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:52,440 Speaker 2: is still pretty terrible through the air. You can pinpoint 629 00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:54,200 Speaker 2: the fact they're going to run the ball, you know, 630 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,840 Speaker 2: and they're not even a very successful running group, but 631 00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:58,320 Speaker 2: they have been able to break off a couple of 632 00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:01,280 Speaker 2: explosive plays. My number is spot on to write where 633 00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:03,320 Speaker 2: the market is, so I may throw a Virginia Tech 634 00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,280 Speaker 2: and a couple of moneyline parlays. I'm not sure if 635 00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:07,120 Speaker 2: Georgia Tech has it been to actually win the game, 636 00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:09,600 Speaker 2: although they have thrown up an upset this year. If 637 00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:13,320 Speaker 2: I had to put Virginia Tech my favorite thing here 638 00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,560 Speaker 2: against Clemson, I would have a thirty one point spread 639 00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,240 Speaker 2: on a neutral field for the ACC championship game. 640 00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:20,320 Speaker 1: Oh my god, Clemson's gonna be thirty one point favors 641 00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:22,200 Speaker 1: every game of the year. Yeah. I think Georgia Tech 642 00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:24,879 Speaker 1: might pull off a stunner here. It just smells right 643 00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:28,800 Speaker 1: that team is still fighting and just improving every week. 644 00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:32,240 Speaker 1: And vas Tech, I know they they've always had problems 645 00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:34,720 Speaker 1: with the triple option, so this isn't a triple option 646 00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 1: Georgia Tech. But this is a place they generally don't 647 00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:40,040 Speaker 1: play well, and Georgia Tech always seems to get up 648 00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:43,680 Speaker 1: for all. Right, let's move on to the Big twelve 649 00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:47,160 Speaker 1: and talk Texas Iowa State. The first thing that jumps 650 00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:49,640 Speaker 1: out is, you know, Herman is a dog. You always 651 00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:51,480 Speaker 1: got to talk about it. I think he's fourteen and 652 00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:53,520 Speaker 1: fourteen or fifteen and three against the spread as a dog, 653 00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:55,160 Speaker 1: and Matt Campbell was also great against the spread as 654 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:57,160 Speaker 1: a dog. Is not that great as a favorite. One 655 00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:59,200 Speaker 1: thing to keep in mind here, it's tough when you 656 00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:01,480 Speaker 1: look at Texas. Some of their defensive numbers are really 657 00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,760 Speaker 1: really ugly, but they are getting healthier on the defensive side. 658 00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:07,760 Speaker 1: Although Jalen Green, one of their starters is out for 659 00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:10,920 Speaker 1: the first half or targeting suspension, which is something to note. 660 00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:13,280 Speaker 1: Some of their receivers are banged up with something to 661 00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:16,760 Speaker 1: keep an eye on. They're questionable. But this line is 662 00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:20,560 Speaker 1: hanging right around seven. I was State minus seven here. 663 00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:22,480 Speaker 1: What do you see? 664 00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:24,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I mean I projected minus six point seven. 665 00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:27,160 Speaker 2: So it's pretty much spot on here. But I think 666 00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:29,480 Speaker 2: that there's one big thing in the advanced stats that 667 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:32,360 Speaker 2: really sticks out more than anything. So you know, Rock 668 00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,160 Speaker 2: Party's eleventh and passing success rate. Iowa State is able 669 00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:36,560 Speaker 2: to get the ball through the air. That's kind of 670 00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:39,120 Speaker 2: been their mission objective this year. And Texas defense is 671 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:43,040 Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty fourth defensively in passing success rate, 672 00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:45,040 Speaker 2: one of the worst in the nation. I mean, this 673 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:47,760 Speaker 2: is something we've known all year, started with LSU. So 674 00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:49,920 Speaker 2: I think Texas is going to have some major issues 675 00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:53,720 Speaker 2: here dealing with Brock Party and the Iway State defense 676 00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:55,320 Speaker 2: has been good against the run. I mean they're twenty 677 00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,720 Speaker 2: ninth and stuff rate, their top fifty in line yards 678 00:29:57,760 --> 00:29:59,240 Speaker 2: and then all the other advanced metrics that are on 679 00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:02,400 Speaker 2: football outside and that's really how you stop Texas. Kansas 680 00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:04,600 Speaker 2: State wasn't too successful in that. I know that they 681 00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 2: got a fourteen oh lead, but then the rest of 682 00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,080 Speaker 2: the game was all Texas on the ground. But Iowa 683 00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:11,880 Speaker 2: State's good enough in the trench in the front seven 684 00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:14,000 Speaker 2: to stop to stop that. So both these teams are 685 00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:16,400 Speaker 2: great at scoring in the red zone, but they rate 686 00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:19,440 Speaker 2: ninety eight or worse an opponent red zone scoring percentage. 687 00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:21,000 Speaker 2: So if you're gonna tell me both offenses are going 688 00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:24,200 Speaker 2: to convert against defenses it can't stop people from scoring, 689 00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:26,520 Speaker 2: then I think I'm gonna take Iowa State. And I 690 00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:27,720 Speaker 2: like the points in this. 691 00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:30,120 Speaker 1: Game fair enough. I mean, i Aowa stayed. Look, they're 692 00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:32,640 Speaker 1: five and four and they're a seven point favorite at 693 00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:34,800 Speaker 1: home against a Texas team that was in the top ten, 694 00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:37,880 Speaker 1: and we give a top ten credit to LSU. They 695 00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:40,320 Speaker 1: have to be one of the best five and four teams, 696 00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:43,440 Speaker 1: especially in the Big twelve, that we've seen in a 697 00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:46,640 Speaker 1: long time. Yeah, I think the line is about right, 698 00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,400 Speaker 1: although I would lean towards Texas just because they're getting healthier. 699 00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:51,280 Speaker 1: I might look at them in the second half when 700 00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:53,200 Speaker 1: you get green back and they'll see how the game's 701 00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:56,120 Speaker 1: playing out. I don't see a ton of value either way. Yeah, 702 00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:57,680 Speaker 1: I think it should be high scoring as well. So 703 00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:00,840 Speaker 1: from a total perspective, I think it's over or nothing. 704 00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:03,440 Speaker 3: Hope you're enjoying this great action network podcast. I want 705 00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:05,640 Speaker 3: to make sure you know about the locked On podcast 706 00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:09,000 Speaker 3: network locked On as a daily podcast on your favorite team. 707 00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:11,400 Speaker 1: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers. You are locked 708 00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:13,160 Speaker 1: own of the Dallas marriage he can everybody to the 709 00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:15,160 Speaker 1: Lockdown Lakers podcast Let's Go. 710 00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:18,400 Speaker 3: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who 711 00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:20,640 Speaker 3: know your team better than anyone and give you the 712 00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:23,480 Speaker 3: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search 713 00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 3: locked On your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked On podcast. 714 00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,080 Speaker 1: Before we move on to the Big Ten. Anything you 715 00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:38,160 Speaker 1: want to mention with Kansas Okie Light and or TCU 716 00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:44,120 Speaker 1: Texas Tech. I think Okie State seventeen ish point favorite 717 00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:47,640 Speaker 1: at home against Kansas. Pray for the Kansas run defense 718 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:51,080 Speaker 1: against Oklahoma State. And then TCU I think opened as 719 00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:53,800 Speaker 1: a dog and is out to a three point favorite. 720 00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:56,640 Speaker 1: What do you see in either one of those games 721 00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:57,280 Speaker 1: that you want to mention? 722 00:31:57,680 --> 00:31:59,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, the pointspread is right for Kansas Oklahoma State. I 723 00:31:59,920 --> 00:32:01,960 Speaker 2: just I want to say that if you were following, 724 00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:04,080 Speaker 2: you know the action networking us back in you know, 725 00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:06,560 Speaker 2: back in the spring, I was getting dropping money as 726 00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:08,680 Speaker 2: much as I could in New Jersey and Nevada on 727 00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,000 Speaker 2: over five and a half, over six, over six and 728 00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:13,240 Speaker 2: a half on Oklahoma State. So this is a monster 729 00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:16,920 Speaker 2: game if you're holding a Pokes season win total over 730 00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:18,960 Speaker 2: so I'd say sit back and enjoy that. I do 731 00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:20,680 Speaker 2: kind of project this game to go under about ten 732 00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:22,480 Speaker 2: points under what the current number is, so there may 733 00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:24,240 Speaker 2: be a play on that. I don't have much on 734 00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,000 Speaker 2: TCU tex attack. The CCU team has just got awful 735 00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:31,400 Speaker 2: on offense. Every week to TCU plays, it's just a struggle. 736 00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:33,600 Speaker 1: Yep. All right, let's move on to the Big ten 737 00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:38,400 Speaker 1: and let's talk Indiana Penn State. Penn State is a 738 00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:42,080 Speaker 1: fourteen fourteen and a half point favorite at home in 739 00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:45,320 Speaker 1: Happy Valley against Indiana, who's ranked for the first time 740 00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:48,160 Speaker 1: since nineteen ninety three. I believe there's seven and two. 741 00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:51,960 Speaker 1: You know, Indiana, I don't think is you know, is 742 00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:55,280 Speaker 1: nowhere close to as explosive orponent of a passing offense 743 00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:58,239 Speaker 1: as Minnesota was. And we saw Minnesota exploit you know, 744 00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:02,400 Speaker 1: some weaknesses in the state secondary, but Penn State is 745 00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:04,520 Speaker 1: their front seven is still excellent. You still can't run 746 00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:06,440 Speaker 1: on them. I think they're number one in the country 747 00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:09,880 Speaker 1: and rushing success rate. But Pennix or Poenix I was 748 00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,640 Speaker 1: calling Poenix is out for the year. Peyton Ramsey is 749 00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:15,200 Speaker 1: now taking over. And the one thing that I keep 750 00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:18,680 Speaker 1: coming back to is, yeah, Indiana's seven to two, Yes 751 00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:22,000 Speaker 1: they're ranked, but who have they beat? And the answer 752 00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:26,000 Speaker 1: is nobody. I mean nobody at all. I mean, this 753 00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:28,719 Speaker 1: is your typical Indiana team. I mean, look, this is 754 00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:32,000 Speaker 1: their schedule. They start off the year by beating Ball State, 755 00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:34,800 Speaker 1: and then they beat Eastern Illinois and then they lost 756 00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:37,560 Speaker 1: fifty one to tend to Ohio State. Then they beat Connecticut, 757 00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:39,440 Speaker 1: you know, and then they lost to Sparty, gave up 758 00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:42,560 Speaker 1: forty Sparty, you know. Then they beat Rutgers, and then 759 00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,240 Speaker 1: they beat Maryland, who's had a backup quarterback in by 760 00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:47,760 Speaker 1: one possession, and then they beat Nebraska by one possession 761 00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:49,600 Speaker 1: with a backup quarterback in. Yes, both of them are 762 00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:51,440 Speaker 1: on the road. And then they beat Northwestern. So there's 763 00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:55,640 Speaker 1: seven wins or nothing like. It's nothing offenses and backup quarterbacks. 764 00:33:55,880 --> 00:34:00,200 Speaker 1: So this defense I still think is very, very very 765 00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:04,560 Speaker 1: vulnerable against elite offenses. Penn State loves blowing out teams 766 00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:07,080 Speaker 1: that they are better then, and they are clearly better 767 00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:10,200 Speaker 1: than Indiana. Franklin is an amazing against the spread coaches 768 00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:13,279 Speaker 1: a favorite. The only question I have here, you know, 769 00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:15,319 Speaker 1: Number one, I wouldn't play it over fourteen. If it 770 00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:17,200 Speaker 1: was fourteen or thirteen and five, I was looking at 771 00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 1: Penn State. The only question was a terrible spot because 772 00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:21,560 Speaker 1: Penn State, you know, they had college fable playoff hopes 773 00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:23,600 Speaker 1: and then they were undefeated, and then you know, they 774 00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:26,719 Speaker 1: lose last week at Minnesota. So they come back here 775 00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:30,439 Speaker 1: to play Indiana, you know, and you know next week, 776 00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:32,520 Speaker 1: I mean, then they have I believe they have. The 777 00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:34,480 Speaker 1: next week they have Ohio State. Throughout Ohio State, so 778 00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:36,680 Speaker 1: this is Sandwich City. They might be completely flat after 779 00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:39,400 Speaker 1: losing that game, come out a little sloppy. That's my 780 00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:41,719 Speaker 1: main concern here. But I don't think they can compete here. 781 00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:43,439 Speaker 1: But the spot's bad for Penn State. What do you think? 782 00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:45,760 Speaker 2: Yeah? Absolutely, I mean the way to beat Penn State 783 00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:48,399 Speaker 2: is to go over the top of the defense. That's 784 00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:50,560 Speaker 2: what Minnesota was able to get. Don Tanner Morgan was 785 00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:52,239 Speaker 2: able to throw for three hundred and thirty nine yards 786 00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:56,000 Speaker 2: against them, you know, and that's not what Indiana passing 787 00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:59,600 Speaker 2: game is now. They're highly successful, whether it's Poenix or 788 00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:02,160 Speaker 2: Rams either they're both able to complete a five yard 789 00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:04,800 Speaker 2: pass better than anybody in the nation their thirteenth and 790 00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:07,399 Speaker 2: passing success rate, but they're one hundred and twelfth in explosiveness. 791 00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:09,839 Speaker 2: I know the theory was that we think that Penn 792 00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:13,120 Speaker 2: State has scripted plays. Still feel that that's what happened 793 00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:15,560 Speaker 2: last week. You know, they were successful. The game started 794 00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:19,120 Speaker 2: out interception, touchdown, field goal, interception. I know it started 795 00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:21,160 Speaker 2: off with an interception, but they came right back, had 796 00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:23,279 Speaker 2: a touchdown, they drove down the field, had a field goal, 797 00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:25,440 Speaker 2: and then they had another interception. They were able to 798 00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:27,200 Speaker 2: score ten points in the first quarter, and they only 799 00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:29,239 Speaker 2: scored sixteen the rest of the game. This kind of 800 00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:31,279 Speaker 2: fits into a mold where we think that the first 801 00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:34,000 Speaker 2: three or four drives are scripted for Sean Clifford, and 802 00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:35,200 Speaker 2: then the rest of the game is just kind of 803 00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:37,680 Speaker 2: throws shit against the wall, let's see what sticks. So 804 00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:40,319 Speaker 2: I think in this game where Indiana just doesn't have 805 00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:42,399 Speaker 2: a way to get down the field fast, I think 806 00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:44,839 Speaker 2: I'll look for a Penn State first half again. Full 807 00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:46,480 Speaker 2: game number I think is right where it should be. 808 00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:49,719 Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to Michigan Michigan State, and 809 00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:51,520 Speaker 1: I'm just warning everyone out there, I might have to 810 00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:53,880 Speaker 1: play Michigan State at fourteen. I think they're ten to 811 00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:56,279 Speaker 1: one against the spread in the last eleven times they've 812 00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:59,000 Speaker 1: played Michigan in this rivalry game. It just feels like 813 00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:01,319 Speaker 1: this game will be seven teen, fourteen, twenty. It'll be 814 00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:04,480 Speaker 1: low scoring in close in this rivalry game. I mean, 815 00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:06,680 Speaker 1: Michigan State up twenty eight to three against Illinois. I 816 00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:08,160 Speaker 1: can't win a bet with them three and seven on 817 00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:10,880 Speaker 1: the year. Michigan stakimes. It includes totals to They torture 818 00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:13,480 Speaker 1: me every week. But at fourteen, ought to take it. 819 00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:15,880 Speaker 1: It was Florida. There was plus fourteen minus one fifteen 820 00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:17,560 Speaker 1: earlier and I didn't take it. But I guess so 821 00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:20,680 Speaker 1: flat fourteen, I probably will over under forty four and 822 00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:22,480 Speaker 1: a half. It's gonna be cold here in Ann Arbor. 823 00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:26,600 Speaker 1: You know the Michigan State defense, it's it's excellent still there. 824 00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:30,359 Speaker 1: Advanced metrics are great. The offense is a nightmare. You know, 825 00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:33,120 Speaker 1: the Michigan offense is starting to figure it out, but 826 00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:37,200 Speaker 1: they're still pretty average overall Michigan States due to just 827 00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:40,920 Speaker 1: get a couple breaks. Eventually, I think I ought to 828 00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:44,680 Speaker 1: play it at fourteen in this rivalry game. And you know, 829 00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:47,319 Speaker 1: after Michigan States on was four straight from rank to 830 00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:49,200 Speaker 1: four and five. What do you see here? 831 00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:51,919 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean just on the total alone at forty 832 00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:54,200 Speaker 2: four and a half, I mean a point spread of 833 00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:57,000 Speaker 2: fourteen is just too much. And you know, but then 834 00:36:57,040 --> 00:36:58,680 Speaker 2: I mean if you just did blind resume and didn't 835 00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:00,239 Speaker 2: look at the team names. But then if you pull 836 00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:02,040 Speaker 2: back the curtain, you see hardballs at home and what 837 00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:04,240 Speaker 2: Michigan State, what happened to them last week in Illinois? 838 00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:07,919 Speaker 2: Illinois post game win EXPECTANCYE was fourteen percent. They did 839 00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:11,560 Speaker 2: everything to not win that game and somehow won that game. 840 00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:15,160 Speaker 2: That was one of the craziest outcomes in the fourth 841 00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:17,000 Speaker 2: quarter that I think I've ever seen. So if you're 842 00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:19,360 Speaker 2: gonna turn around and play Michigan State, I think you 843 00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:21,160 Speaker 2: will get a fourteen. It looks like the market is 844 00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:24,480 Speaker 2: steaming that way. It should touch it there before. Plenty 845 00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:26,840 Speaker 2: of math guys, plenty of sharp guys that I've heard from, 846 00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:28,719 Speaker 2: are going to be one to back the Spartans when 847 00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:30,799 Speaker 2: it comes to two touchdowns. So I mean, for me, 848 00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:32,720 Speaker 2: it's going to be in no play. I just cannot. 849 00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:35,000 Speaker 2: I cannot get on to Michigan State and go through 850 00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:36,359 Speaker 2: this again. I think I've lost too much on them 851 00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:36,680 Speaker 2: this year. 852 00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:39,040 Speaker 1: I'll have my clown math go on if it got 853 00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:42,719 Speaker 1: to fourteen with Gus calling that game potentially, so you 854 00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:44,640 Speaker 1: know you have the Gus factor, don't make it that's 855 00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:46,640 Speaker 1: gonna be worth a couple points for the dog. Kidding, 856 00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:49,279 Speaker 1: but all right, let's talk. We have to mention before 857 00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:51,120 Speaker 1: we get to Minnesota. I we have to talk Ohio 858 00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:53,480 Speaker 1: State Rutgers. Just very quickly here fifty two and a 859 00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:56,239 Speaker 1: half point favorites, well, I say the fifty two and 860 00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:59,480 Speaker 1: a half point road favorite at Rutgers. The funny thing 861 00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:01,560 Speaker 1: is if you look going to chart, you know, we 862 00:38:01,600 --> 00:38:04,360 Speaker 1: have these charts that of all of our advanced stats. 863 00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:07,520 Speaker 1: You know, the Ohio State side is all green offense 864 00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:09,759 Speaker 1: and defense all the way down, and Rutgers is all 865 00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:12,719 Speaker 1: read all the way down. I mean, obviously it's gonna 866 00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:15,080 Speaker 1: I don't know how you bet this game. You know 867 00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:16,839 Speaker 1: it's gonna it's gonna come down to like when does 868 00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:19,840 Speaker 1: Ohio State pull their starters is Ohio State. You know, fumble, muffle, 869 00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:22,359 Speaker 1: punt and Rutgers gets a loop touchdown. I mean when 870 00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:24,520 Speaker 1: it spreads is high. It's crazy. But the one thing 871 00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:27,080 Speaker 1: I do want to mention with Ohio State where there 872 00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:29,880 Speaker 1: are two week areas, and I mentioned this earlier there, 873 00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:32,920 Speaker 1: it's their offensive line, you know, and giving up pressure. 874 00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:35,160 Speaker 1: They're ninety eighth in Sacary and I'm talking for college 875 00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:37,600 Speaker 1: wall playoff things that keep in mind they're ninety eighth 876 00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:40,960 Speaker 1: in Sacary and then rush explosiveness. They're still giving up 877 00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:43,000 Speaker 1: big runs and so those are the only two things 878 00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:46,120 Speaker 1: where they're not really elite. Anyway, you can bet this game. 879 00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:49,080 Speaker 2: I chuckle at this game because I was with the 880 00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:51,359 Speaker 2: person I was with the oddsmager at Circa that put 881 00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:53,879 Speaker 2: this number up, and we had a discussion about what 882 00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:56,719 Speaker 2: the points spread should be and what the total should be, 883 00:38:57,120 --> 00:38:59,480 Speaker 2: and I said, listen, I've got to project at the 884 00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:01,279 Speaker 2: fifty two and a half, and I think that you've 885 00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:03,520 Speaker 2: just got to account for Rutgers getting a safety, right, 886 00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:05,680 Speaker 2: I think the total should be fifty four and a half. 887 00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:07,920 Speaker 2: I know that sounds crazy, but I'm looking at this 888 00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:10,439 Speaker 2: and you know, Circa opened it up at fifty five 889 00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:12,560 Speaker 2: for the total, fifteen and a half for the spread. 890 00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:14,759 Speaker 2: So I mean you're basically this is a yes no 891 00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:17,960 Speaker 2: bet on whether Rutgers will score. I'm not sure that 892 00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:19,960 Speaker 2: they will. I wouldn't be surprised if their shutout. They've 893 00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:22,680 Speaker 2: been shut out by lesser Big ten teams. I mean, 894 00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:24,840 Speaker 2: if you're gonna bet on the side, I'm guessing a 895 00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:27,640 Speaker 2: key number is fifty two if you're going to go 896 00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:30,560 Speaker 2: by divisions of touchdown numbers here, so you would definitely 897 00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:32,480 Speaker 2: want to get the fifty three that's out there. I 898 00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:34,919 Speaker 2: don't I don't know how you bet this. I might 899 00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:37,319 Speaker 2: take an under for fun, you know, but I don't know. 900 00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:38,440 Speaker 2: Other than that, I don't know. I'm not going to 901 00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:38,840 Speaker 2: touch this. 902 00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:41,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, no, thank you. All right, let's get to Minnesota Iowa. 903 00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:44,200 Speaker 1: Minnesota obviously off that huge win, maybe one of their 904 00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:46,400 Speaker 1: biggest wins in program history, at least in the last 905 00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:49,799 Speaker 1: few decades. They're going to Isoli. I was a three 906 00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:52,360 Speaker 1: point favorite here. I can just tell you the one 907 00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:54,959 Speaker 1: thing I learned from Minnesota last week is their offense 908 00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:58,080 Speaker 1: is excellent. We said that Bateman Johnson on the outside, 909 00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:01,160 Speaker 1: Morgan was excellent, again a quarterback completing ninety percent of 910 00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:03,719 Speaker 1: his passes. But look, the one thing that I saw 911 00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:07,200 Speaker 1: is that Minnesota defense is bad. That shows up in 912 00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:09,160 Speaker 1: some of the advanced matches are one hundred outside they're 913 00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:10,960 Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty first and power success rate one 914 00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:13,760 Speaker 1: hundred and fourteenth and stuff. Right, their secondary is talented. 915 00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:15,839 Speaker 1: You know, they had they had some takeaways last week 916 00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:18,400 Speaker 1: and they benefited from me to maybe potential you know, 917 00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:20,560 Speaker 1: calls that went their favor on the past interference and 918 00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:22,879 Speaker 1: I was on Minnesota. But they're you know, they do 919 00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:26,400 Speaker 1: have good players in that secondary, including Antoine Winfield junior, 920 00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:28,880 Speaker 1: but they're up front, they are very vulnerable. So I 921 00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:32,000 Speaker 1: think Iowa can you know, really control the line of 922 00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:35,040 Speaker 1: scrimmage when they have the ball, they can pound the rock, 923 00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:36,959 Speaker 1: control it. I mean, this is such a letdown spot 924 00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:39,239 Speaker 1: for Minnesota. I mean I was going to win this game. 925 00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:41,960 Speaker 1: I moneyline parlayed them with Oklahoma because it could be 926 00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:44,040 Speaker 1: ugly in a typical Iowa game, and they win by 927 00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:47,279 Speaker 1: two or one. So I felt more comfortable just throwing 928 00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:49,719 Speaker 1: them in a money online parlay. What do you see 929 00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:51,960 Speaker 1: here in Iowa? Minnesota? 930 00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:54,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, I did the same thing I'm moneyline parlay at Iowa. 931 00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:58,040 Speaker 2: If I get around to recording another round robin video tonight, 932 00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:00,000 Speaker 2: I'm sure Iowa will be what I call a boat anchor, 933 00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,080 Speaker 2: a low favorite that I think absolutely has a shot 934 00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:04,960 Speaker 2: of winning and supporting the rest of the teams in 935 00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:07,120 Speaker 2: the round robin. As you and I are recording this 936 00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:09,320 Speaker 2: right now, a couple of the Sharper books that you 937 00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:10,960 Speaker 2: and I know have moved to three and a half. 938 00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:13,680 Speaker 2: So I think that tells you you know, exactly where 939 00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:15,560 Speaker 2: the bigger money's coming in, or at least where the 940 00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:18,480 Speaker 2: respected money's coming in. You know, Iowa's defensive passing success 941 00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:20,759 Speaker 2: rate is twenty second. That's just you know, they're better 942 00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:24,600 Speaker 2: at limiting explosiveness than Penn State was, and AJT Penenza 943 00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:26,400 Speaker 2: is going to have a heck of a time getting 944 00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:28,920 Speaker 2: the Tanner Morgan. Iowa's first in the country and limiting 945 00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:33,040 Speaker 2: opponent rush explosiveness, and Minnesota still has an offensive line 946 00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:35,520 Speaker 2: sack rate rank of one hundred and seconds. So I 947 00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:37,560 Speaker 2: just there's a lot of things in the advanced status 948 00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:39,480 Speaker 2: that you mentioned that just say that Iowa is going 949 00:41:39,520 --> 00:41:41,360 Speaker 2: to be able to win this game. And I go 950 00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:43,319 Speaker 2: back to the fact that we didn't trust Penn State. 951 00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:47,040 Speaker 2: Minnesota hadn't played anybody. Minnesota had this one huge advantage 952 00:41:47,080 --> 00:41:49,400 Speaker 2: of explosive passing. They were able to take advantage of 953 00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:52,000 Speaker 2: Penn State. You know, Iowa here is good. I wish 954 00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:53,800 Speaker 2: this game was at night with Kennick, but it'd probably 955 00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:56,120 Speaker 2: be bumped up a point. But I took Iowa money 956 00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:58,480 Speaker 2: line may continue to do it. This is the biggest 957 00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:01,879 Speaker 2: hangover in Minnesota to program history. They win this game, 958 00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:05,600 Speaker 2: I'd actually would be extremely impressed. I'm a little you know, 959 00:42:06,080 --> 00:42:07,480 Speaker 2: you know, I give them credit for what they did 960 00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:10,080 Speaker 2: against Penn State at home, but you could pick yourself 961 00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:12,359 Speaker 2: up at it as a nine to zero team. This team, 962 00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:14,399 Speaker 2: this time late in the season, go to a place 963 00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:16,360 Speaker 2: like Kennick and win this ball game. I'll really be impressed. 964 00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:18,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, don't forget all the games at Minnesota barely 965 00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:20,680 Speaker 1: won earlier in the year. They've been fortunate this year. 966 00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:22,479 Speaker 1: You know, they were even out game by Penn State. 967 00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:25,680 Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the Conference USA quickly here, 968 00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:29,120 Speaker 1: and we got to get a shout out for UTEP. 969 00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:34,120 Speaker 2: We're talking minor nation out in the West Texas town 970 00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:35,480 Speaker 2: of lpast. 971 00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:41,040 Speaker 1: So picks up it's up Minor Nation against UAB. UTEP 972 00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:45,239 Speaker 1: is catching seventeen against UAB and their backup quarterback. You 973 00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:46,520 Speaker 1: back in the minors here. 974 00:42:46,640 --> 00:42:48,479 Speaker 2: Minor Nation, this is your week. And now I haven't 975 00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:51,000 Speaker 2: exactly laid any money yet, but Tyler Johnson is confirmed 976 00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:53,120 Speaker 2: he will sit this game. He still has a spring knee, 977 00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:56,960 Speaker 2: so you're gonna get some extremely inefficient offensive play from UAB. 978 00:42:57,719 --> 00:43:00,480 Speaker 2: UAB has lost too straight. They haven't covered against Tennessee 979 00:43:00,520 --> 00:43:03,520 Speaker 2: and Southern miss. Tyler Johnson's a huge part of that offense. 980 00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:05,719 Speaker 2: And a birdie sent me a text earlier this week 981 00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:08,359 Speaker 2: and said Bill Clark has been contacted about the Arkansas job, 982 00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:11,360 Speaker 2: So we don't know exactly, you know, if he's entertaining 983 00:43:11,400 --> 00:43:13,200 Speaker 2: at or shot it down. I don't know the status 984 00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:16,719 Speaker 2: of that news, but you know, I don't know where 985 00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:19,440 Speaker 2: the focus of the UAB team is without their leader quarterback. 986 00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:22,200 Speaker 2: And Bill Clark, who I have respect for, is one 987 00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:25,200 Speaker 2: of the best group of five coaches. I wonder if 988 00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:27,399 Speaker 2: what's going on up, you know, up in his brain. 989 00:43:27,520 --> 00:43:30,040 Speaker 2: So no, it's a stay away and you may see 990 00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:31,120 Speaker 2: a UTEP play come out of me. 991 00:43:31,640 --> 00:43:34,640 Speaker 1: Oh boy, all right, we have to touch on our 992 00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:36,960 Speaker 1: independent game. We already said Navy, we already talked about 993 00:43:37,000 --> 00:43:40,600 Speaker 1: Navy Notre Dame. But we also have U Mass U 994 00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:42,080 Speaker 1: Mass against Northwestern. 995 00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:42,719 Speaker 2: Iihilate it. 996 00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:45,880 Speaker 1: I laid thirty nine and a half with Northwestern. I 997 00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:48,920 Speaker 1: can't believe it. A team that can barely score ten points, 998 00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:51,840 Speaker 1: but I don't care U Mass. Is this that bad deadline? 999 00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:54,280 Speaker 1: I think you make it around forty If I wanted 1000 00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:55,839 Speaker 1: to try and calculate what the line would be, I'd 1001 00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:57,640 Speaker 1: probably make it around forty two. But I don't come 1002 00:43:57,719 --> 00:44:00,799 Speaker 1: up with a ballpark ermer ad to touchdown. It's work. 1003 00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:03,799 Speaker 1: It works every week at two to three touchdowns. Northwestern 1004 00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:07,520 Speaker 1: should by the way UMass is getting absolutely they're getting 1005 00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:10,480 Speaker 1: their doors blown off every week. And they don't play anybody. 1006 00:44:10,480 --> 00:44:13,520 Speaker 1: They don't play any good defenses. Literally. They played Rutgers 1007 00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:15,440 Speaker 1: that gave up forty eight and you know, they only 1008 00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:17,840 Speaker 1: scored twenty one. They played Southern Illinois gave up forty 1009 00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:21,279 Speaker 1: five and only scored twenty. They played Charlotte and only 1010 00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:24,560 Speaker 1: scored seventeen and gave up fifty two. They played Coastal Carolina, 1011 00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:26,879 Speaker 1: gave up sixty two, only scored twenty eight. These are 1012 00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:29,719 Speaker 1: awful defenses. You know, they held Aker to twenty nine. 1013 00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:32,560 Speaker 1: A could scored twenty nine points. Ackron went seventeen quarters 1014 00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:35,480 Speaker 1: out of touchdown. Recently, you know they played Florida International 1015 00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:37,960 Speaker 1: and didn't score. They lost forty four to nothing. Florida 1016 00:44:38,000 --> 00:44:41,520 Speaker 1: International as a I mean, Northwestern has a much better defensive. 1017 00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:44,200 Speaker 1: Florida and National LA Tech put up sixty nine on them, 1018 00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:47,640 Speaker 1: nice and then Connecticut put up fifty six on them. 1019 00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:50,680 Speaker 1: So look, this is the best defense by far that 1020 00:44:50,800 --> 00:44:52,600 Speaker 1: U MESS has played. Northwestern is gonna take out all 1021 00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:56,560 Speaker 1: their frustrations. Their big ten athletes are gonna score every possession. 1022 00:44:56,880 --> 00:44:59,120 Speaker 1: It's that easy against U MASS. And this I don't 1023 00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:01,560 Speaker 1: see ums scoring. I really don't. I think it's either 1024 00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:04,440 Speaker 1: forty nine or fifty six nothing Northwestern. You just fade 1025 00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:07,040 Speaker 1: this UMAs team and unless there's flukes, they're not scoring. 1026 00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:11,560 Speaker 2: I will say the total of fifty eight opener of 1027 00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:13,879 Speaker 2: fifty eight has trickled down to fifty six. So there 1028 00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:17,279 Speaker 2: is money guessing that UMass is not going to score 1029 00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:20,520 Speaker 2: a point and that Northwestern will at least stay shy 1030 00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:24,440 Speaker 2: of what eight touchdowns? Good lord, it's ridiculous. 1031 00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:27,080 Speaker 1: The only thing UMass does well, is they like, break 1032 00:45:27,120 --> 00:45:29,480 Speaker 1: a couple of runs, that's it. That's your only hope. 1033 00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:31,759 Speaker 1: And they don't give up. They don't give up sacks 1034 00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:33,560 Speaker 1: to joke, everything else. There one hundred and thirtieth in 1035 00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:35,759 Speaker 1: the nation and it's the worst team we've ever seen. 1036 00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:37,920 Speaker 1: Keep seeing people bet u Mass is it aligns too high? 1037 00:45:37,920 --> 00:45:40,640 Speaker 1: It's not. We've some found the floor for this shitty team. 1038 00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:43,200 Speaker 1: Trucked every week. The only team they've covered against is 1039 00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:45,440 Speaker 1: the Akron who hasn't used. The first team ever to 1040 00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:47,000 Speaker 1: go oh in ten against the spread. 1041 00:45:46,880 --> 00:45:48,839 Speaker 2: Go go check the action, never power rings. I think 1042 00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:52,160 Speaker 2: we would have Ohio State seventy four point favorites on 1043 00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:52,720 Speaker 2: a neutral. 1044 00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:54,799 Speaker 1: All Right, we got to get Mac talk in. I'm 1045 00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:56,319 Speaker 1: not talking about it because I'm not betting this game. 1046 00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:59,440 Speaker 1: Central Michigan ball State tell me something because I don't care. 1047 00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:03,160 Speaker 2: A huge game for ball State here. Don't think I'm 1048 00:46:03,160 --> 00:46:04,239 Speaker 2: going to have a play in this. If I do, 1049 00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:05,920 Speaker 2: it's going to be on ball State. I'm gonna leave 1050 00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:08,000 Speaker 2: it at that because it's Mac and we you know. 1051 00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:10,440 Speaker 1: Lolip a coin uh Mountain West Conference. We have two 1052 00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:12,840 Speaker 1: games I wanted to talk about Wyoming Utah State. Wyoming 1053 00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:14,800 Speaker 1: could have some success moving the ball on the ground. 1054 00:46:15,160 --> 00:46:16,560 Speaker 1: But you have a column out you can check out 1055 00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:20,279 Speaker 1: on the Action Network app Anddooraction Network dot com. Air 1056 00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:23,279 Speaker 1: Force Colorida State as well is in that column. But 1057 00:46:23,320 --> 00:46:25,120 Speaker 1: I just want to ask you one question. Look, Air 1058 00:46:25,160 --> 00:46:27,920 Speaker 1: Force is a triple option team laying ten. So I'm 1059 00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:31,480 Speaker 1: intrigued by Colorida State, you know, in this rivalry game. 1060 00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:34,120 Speaker 1: You know, this game is really important for Colorado State, 1061 00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:37,359 Speaker 1: who's you know, been surging out of nowhere lately. And 1062 00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:40,799 Speaker 1: you know, if they're sitting at four wins, so they 1063 00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:43,640 Speaker 1: can still become bowe eligible. But my problem is Colorida 1064 00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:47,440 Speaker 1: State's run dye is horrifying. Their d line numbers are 1065 00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:51,680 Speaker 1: not great, and that's mainly what I'm worried about. And 1066 00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:54,200 Speaker 1: then also you know on their on the offensive side, 1067 00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:59,480 Speaker 1: their offensive line is also you know, there's some questions, 1068 00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:01,319 Speaker 1: there's lushy wouldn't Why is the Air Force just going 1069 00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:04,080 Speaker 1: to dominate this in the trenches and is there something 1070 00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:06,319 Speaker 1: that I'm missing here? You know, I'm just gonna play 1071 00:47:06,320 --> 00:47:09,279 Speaker 1: because I played double digit dogs against Service Academy ties. 1072 00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:10,759 Speaker 1: But that's the one thing that worries me, the trench play. 1073 00:47:11,120 --> 00:47:12,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to point people to the article that 1074 00:47:13,200 --> 00:47:15,000 Speaker 2: I think just got published over within the last hour. 1075 00:47:15,040 --> 00:47:17,719 Speaker 2: It's my article of the teams that I'm playing this week, 1076 00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:20,080 Speaker 2: and there's a reason to back Colorado State and the 1077 00:47:20,080 --> 00:47:23,200 Speaker 2: reason why their rush defense is actually improved. They only 1078 00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:26,040 Speaker 2: allowed one hundred and seven Russian yards UNLV last week, 1079 00:47:26,120 --> 00:47:27,880 Speaker 2: ninety one yards of San Diego State a couple of 1080 00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:32,000 Speaker 2: weeks ago. They are improving on the ground. There's some 1081 00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:35,120 Speaker 2: good links in there that point to stories about Mike Bobo, 1082 00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:37,680 Speaker 2: what he's done with his defensive coordinator. And then my 1083 00:47:37,760 --> 00:47:40,359 Speaker 2: favorite term in the entire article was we had to 1084 00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:42,560 Speaker 2: come to Jesus meeting with the defensive players. I say 1085 00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:44,080 Speaker 2: that to my sons, all right, let's have it come 1086 00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:45,960 Speaker 2: to Jesus meeting. So when you have one of those meetings, 1087 00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:48,160 Speaker 2: it really kind of turned around with this defense is 1088 00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:50,759 Speaker 2: done in Colorado State. We know can sling the ball 1089 00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:52,320 Speaker 2: and that's where you can attack air force. 1090 00:47:52,680 --> 00:47:54,799 Speaker 1: Yep, that's a good point. Let's move on to the 1091 00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:57,319 Speaker 1: PAC twelve here. We had some big spreads with the 1092 00:47:57,320 --> 00:48:00,960 Speaker 1: two primary teams in the PAC twelve is laying twenty 1093 00:48:01,000 --> 00:48:03,120 Speaker 1: one twenty one and a half against UCLA at home. 1094 00:48:03,160 --> 00:48:05,680 Speaker 1: Both those teams off of a bye and Oregon's laying 1095 00:48:05,719 --> 00:48:08,719 Speaker 1: twenty seven at home to Arizona, which I think is 1096 00:48:08,719 --> 00:48:11,000 Speaker 1: too high you as well, eight points more than what 1097 00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:14,239 Speaker 1: you projected as the Tan Action Network projection. The thing 1098 00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:16,480 Speaker 1: I worry about though, is doesn't Oregon and Utah need 1099 00:48:16,520 --> 00:48:19,160 Speaker 1: to show out and roup scores to get to the 1100 00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:19,960 Speaker 1: College Ball playoff? 1101 00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:22,200 Speaker 2: Yeah? And I think Utah has the ability to do 1102 00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:25,359 Speaker 2: that this weekend especially, you know, I think they are 1103 00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:27,120 Speaker 2: seeing where they are ranked. I think they're kind of 1104 00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:29,160 Speaker 2: looking into the standings and they realize what they've got 1105 00:48:29,160 --> 00:48:31,239 Speaker 2: to do and how they've got to impress. They're at 1106 00:48:31,280 --> 00:48:35,120 Speaker 2: home against the UCLA team that is very bad and 1107 00:48:35,640 --> 00:48:39,200 Speaker 2: you know power success rate offensively, you know in Havoc 1108 00:48:39,239 --> 00:48:41,160 Speaker 2: allowed they have a low rank and just don't take 1109 00:48:41,200 --> 00:48:43,759 Speaker 2: care of the ball. There's a lot of red in 1110 00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:46,640 Speaker 2: the chart of UCLA, especially on the defensive side. They're 1111 00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:49,160 Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty third in defensive passing success rate. 1112 00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:52,680 Speaker 2: That's against Utah's offense with Tyler Huntley, he is in 1113 00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:55,960 Speaker 2: the top ten of passing success rate in all of FBS. 1114 00:48:56,000 --> 00:48:57,759 Speaker 2: And that's where Utah, I think, is just going to 1115 00:48:57,760 --> 00:49:00,440 Speaker 2: be able to put it on them, put it on 1116 00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:02,759 Speaker 2: them fast. As far as organ you mentioned it. This 1117 00:49:02,880 --> 00:49:04,759 Speaker 2: number is way too high. I don't know what we're 1118 00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:06,279 Speaker 2: doing at twenty seven and a half. I look at 1119 00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:09,960 Speaker 2: Colill Tate hurt. Are we missing like half the Arizona defense. 1120 00:49:10,040 --> 00:49:13,320 Speaker 2: I'm not sure what's going on here. I projected minus nineteen. 1121 00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:15,359 Speaker 2: It's up to minus twenty seven and a half. If 1122 00:49:15,360 --> 00:49:17,960 Speaker 2: you like sp plus projections. They're even at twenty four, 1123 00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:20,160 Speaker 2: which is well below what the current market number is. 1124 00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:22,600 Speaker 2: So I don't understand what this number is whatsoever. I 1125 00:49:22,600 --> 00:49:24,279 Speaker 2: know it's awes and I know it's late at night, 1126 00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:26,400 Speaker 2: but I can't find the entries are I mean, there's 1127 00:49:26,440 --> 00:49:28,120 Speaker 2: a point where the market is just way too much 1128 00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:30,640 Speaker 2: on one team, and you know you have to buy. 1129 00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:32,799 Speaker 2: So I'm not sure if'm gonna get involved with Arizona here, 1130 00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:34,880 Speaker 2: but at twenty eight, it's got to be considered. 1131 00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:36,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, the problem is if Oregon does want to run 1132 00:49:37,000 --> 00:49:38,280 Speaker 1: it up, this is the defense is doing it against. 1133 00:49:38,280 --> 00:49:41,960 Speaker 1: The Arizona defense is horrifying. I mean, they are bottom 1134 00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:45,440 Speaker 1: ten in the country, in the country in rushing success rate, 1135 00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:48,800 Speaker 1: passing success rate. Havoc zach great, they get no pressure. 1136 00:49:48,840 --> 00:49:51,800 Speaker 1: They can't cover. I mean, it's bad. So if Herbert 1137 00:49:51,800 --> 00:49:53,239 Speaker 1: wants to run it up here and the Ducks want 1138 00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:55,600 Speaker 1: to put some style points on the lockouts, they can 1139 00:49:55,640 --> 00:49:58,359 Speaker 1: certainly do so. USC col USC six and a half 1140 00:49:58,400 --> 00:50:02,240 Speaker 1: point favorites against Cal, who actually showed some effort last week. 1141 00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:05,479 Speaker 1: Chase Garber's back for Cal, and here he's back. 1142 00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:07,640 Speaker 2: He's clear. That's I mean, that was the big news. 1143 00:50:07,640 --> 00:50:08,640 Speaker 2: I think that I don't know if that just came 1144 00:50:08,640 --> 00:50:10,640 Speaker 2: out today, but I mean I was already to back 1145 00:50:10,719 --> 00:50:13,840 Speaker 2: Monster in the spot. I mean he looked good. You know, 1146 00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:17,080 Speaker 2: is finally getting the offense going, and you know now 1147 00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:18,719 Speaker 2: that Chase Garber's is back, I just don't know if 1148 00:50:18,719 --> 00:50:20,680 Speaker 2: it's going to be rust or or exactly what the 1149 00:50:20,680 --> 00:50:22,359 Speaker 2: game plan is, so it's still kind of floating around. 1150 00:50:22,360 --> 00:50:23,759 Speaker 2: I want to get deeper into what Cal is going 1151 00:50:23,800 --> 00:50:26,080 Speaker 2: to do on offense. I definitely want to get deeper 1152 00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:27,680 Speaker 2: into some things that are going on with their defense. 1153 00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:30,200 Speaker 2: They have been vulnerable on the ground. I want to 1154 00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:33,319 Speaker 2: see the status of some USC running backs and how 1155 00:50:33,360 --> 00:50:36,439 Speaker 2: tuned in this team is considering maybe the season maybe 1156 00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:38,839 Speaker 2: over for them. So yeah, Cal is definitely the look. 1157 00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:40,239 Speaker 2: But I'm going to spend a little bit more time 1158 00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:41,319 Speaker 2: getting deep into it. 1159 00:50:41,520 --> 00:50:43,439 Speaker 1: Yeah, well more than that on the Saturday Morning Show 1160 00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:46,200 Speaker 1: ten thirty am. Mister, we'll tweet that out at Stucky 1161 00:50:46,239 --> 00:50:49,040 Speaker 1: two and at underscore colin number one with two L's 1162 00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:49,719 Speaker 1: all right. 1163 00:50:49,680 --> 00:50:50,520 Speaker 2: Let's get to the sec. 1164 00:50:51,360 --> 00:50:53,839 Speaker 1: I played Mississippi Sate plus twenty one or the week 1165 00:50:54,480 --> 00:50:56,520 Speaker 1: that's down to seventeen and a half. And look a 1166 00:50:56,520 --> 00:50:58,960 Speaker 1: couple of things here. Some people like Albama's gonna come 1167 00:50:58,960 --> 00:51:00,480 Speaker 1: out and they're going to blow out to State. They're 1168 00:51:00,480 --> 00:51:03,440 Speaker 1: gonna be angry. I think it's potential letdown spot. Mississippi 1169 00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:06,239 Speaker 1: State was dead to me, and they looked dead and 1170 00:51:06,520 --> 00:51:10,000 Speaker 1: Arkansas woke them up. And that's what happens. If your 1171 00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:12,719 Speaker 1: season's going stout, just go play Arkansas. 1172 00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:15,719 Speaker 2: Tommy Stevens is a walking zombie. He came back from 1173 00:51:15,719 --> 00:51:16,600 Speaker 2: the dead, yep. 1174 00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:20,200 Speaker 1: And look the Mississippi State. What they can do is 1175 00:51:20,320 --> 00:51:23,120 Speaker 1: they can run the ball. Bama is vulnerable. We said 1176 00:51:23,120 --> 00:51:25,520 Speaker 1: this all year in the front seven and it's played 1177 00:51:25,520 --> 00:51:28,640 Speaker 1: out that way. They're ninety seventh and stuff freight eighty 1178 00:51:28,719 --> 00:51:31,239 Speaker 1: six in power success rate. So I think Mississippi State, 1179 00:51:31,440 --> 00:51:33,279 Speaker 1: off of a bye, this is their super Bowl this 1180 00:51:33,360 --> 00:51:36,560 Speaker 1: year at home, the cow bells ringing. But more importantly, 1181 00:51:36,560 --> 00:51:37,680 Speaker 1: so I think they're gonna able to move the ball 1182 00:51:37,680 --> 00:51:40,839 Speaker 1: on the ground. Alabama's going to get theirs. But more 1183 00:51:40,840 --> 00:51:43,719 Speaker 1: importantly Tua, I don't think he's gonna play. I don't 1184 00:51:43,719 --> 00:51:45,680 Speaker 1: think there's any reason why they would play him. They're 1185 00:51:45,680 --> 00:51:47,840 Speaker 1: gonna win this game. They need, you know, they just 1186 00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:50,359 Speaker 1: need to win out and he's battling an injury, he's 1187 00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:54,080 Speaker 1: got a pro career. They have Western Carolina on deck. 1188 00:51:54,080 --> 00:51:57,040 Speaker 1: The Bama schedule gets harder, so I don't think he 1189 00:51:57,080 --> 00:51:58,799 Speaker 1: plays the next two weeks, and I think that's one 1190 00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:00,120 Speaker 1: of the reasons why the line came down. 1191 00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:02,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, we got ten horn weekend coming up where saving 1192 00:52:02,960 --> 00:52:05,200 Speaker 2: gets durrant and call all the immediate rat poison or 1193 00:52:05,239 --> 00:52:07,279 Speaker 2: some shit like that. So I will try to get 1194 00:52:07,320 --> 00:52:08,840 Speaker 2: as many of these charts out as we can. But 1195 00:52:08,920 --> 00:52:10,840 Speaker 2: you hit on the spot that I saw immediately, Like 1196 00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:13,759 Speaker 2: my eyes got on and as the number moved and 1197 00:52:13,760 --> 00:52:15,920 Speaker 2: like notifications started going off. You know, I couldn't get 1198 00:52:15,920 --> 00:52:18,279 Speaker 2: in until it was nineteen, So goodbye you to get 1199 00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:19,840 Speaker 2: that number. But yeah, I'm seeing the same thing as 1200 00:52:19,880 --> 00:52:23,000 Speaker 2: that Mississippi State is twentieth and stuff right offensively against 1201 00:52:23,040 --> 00:52:25,880 Speaker 2: an Alabama defense that is ninety seventh and defending stuff right. 1202 00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:28,239 Speaker 2: What does that mean? Oh, same thing with power success. 1203 00:52:28,360 --> 00:52:30,480 Speaker 2: So what does that mean? Missisippi State's going to be 1204 00:52:30,480 --> 00:52:32,520 Speaker 2: able to run the ball, not get touched in the backfield, 1205 00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:33,640 Speaker 2: They're going to be able to get to the line 1206 00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:35,600 Speaker 2: of scrimmage and not get touched, and they're going to 1207 00:52:35,600 --> 00:52:38,759 Speaker 2: be able to gain yards, keep the chains moving. Mississpi 1208 00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:41,600 Speaker 2: State's offensively thirteenth in line yards. That means they get 1209 00:52:41,600 --> 00:52:43,359 Speaker 2: the yards, but they need to and the proper down 1210 00:52:43,400 --> 00:52:46,080 Speaker 2: and distance as we're Alabama sixty sixth then defending it. 1211 00:52:46,120 --> 00:52:48,480 Speaker 2: We knew Alabama's defense was young, we knew that they 1212 00:52:48,480 --> 00:52:51,279 Speaker 2: could be pushed around. Joe Burrow threw all over them. 1213 00:52:51,360 --> 00:52:54,839 Speaker 2: I mean, their strength is their offensive weapons on the outside. 1214 00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:56,480 Speaker 2: And now it's up to Mac Jones to throw out 1215 00:52:56,520 --> 00:52:58,400 Speaker 2: into the flats. And really it's going to be I mean, 1216 00:52:58,440 --> 00:53:03,719 Speaker 2: if Mississippi State's corners have any kind of ability, talent whatsoever, 1217 00:53:03,920 --> 00:53:05,279 Speaker 2: or you know, I mean, this could actually be a 1218 00:53:05,280 --> 00:53:07,960 Speaker 2: close game. But at the same time, I think Mississippi 1219 00:53:07,960 --> 00:53:10,399 Speaker 2: State is definitely the play here. Way too many points 1220 00:53:10,440 --> 00:53:12,120 Speaker 2: for a team that actually is going to be able 1221 00:53:12,160 --> 00:53:13,880 Speaker 2: to run the ball and dictate some clock. 1222 00:53:14,440 --> 00:53:16,960 Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to Florida Missouri. I'm getting 1223 00:53:16,960 --> 00:53:18,799 Speaker 1: ready to play Missouri here at plus seven. I know 1224 00:53:18,840 --> 00:53:21,280 Speaker 1: that you already played it. This is the Missouri defense 1225 00:53:21,360 --> 00:53:23,520 Speaker 1: is real, by the way, and it's very good. They 1226 00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:26,000 Speaker 1: get Kelly Bryant is coming back. They're leading receiver Johnson. 1227 00:53:26,040 --> 00:53:27,799 Speaker 1: It's gonna be back. Missouri has been a different team 1228 00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:29,200 Speaker 1: at home. I know they haven't played great teams, but 1229 00:53:29,239 --> 00:53:31,640 Speaker 1: they just look a lot different at home. With Kelly 1230 00:53:31,640 --> 00:53:33,279 Speaker 1: Bryant back, I think this line should be closer to 1231 00:53:33,480 --> 00:53:36,280 Speaker 1: you know, three or four is a horrible spot for Florida. 1232 00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:37,719 Speaker 1: They're not going to the College ball ploff. This is 1233 00:53:37,719 --> 00:53:40,840 Speaker 1: a noon kick Jefferson Pilot game. It's gonna be cold. 1234 00:53:41,080 --> 00:53:41,279 Speaker 2: You know. 1235 00:53:41,320 --> 00:53:43,799 Speaker 1: Missouri is coming off just I think three or four 1236 00:53:43,840 --> 00:53:46,879 Speaker 1: straight losses with the Vanderbilt to Kentucky last week, they 1237 00:53:46,880 --> 00:53:49,080 Speaker 1: got shut out. Now Brian didn't play last week. That 1238 00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:51,160 Speaker 1: their starting receiver. But they're gonna be fully healthy or 1239 00:53:51,160 --> 00:53:53,440 Speaker 1: their defense is good. I think Drask will make a 1240 00:53:53,440 --> 00:53:55,680 Speaker 1: couple of mistakes. Missouri is gonna come out fired up. 1241 00:53:55,719 --> 00:53:58,120 Speaker 1: They've there's been a different team at home. I think 1242 00:53:58,160 --> 00:53:58,919 Speaker 1: they pick them off. 1243 00:53:59,160 --> 00:54:01,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, going at your seven because I think this number 1244 00:54:01,560 --> 00:54:03,320 Speaker 2: is gonna get I think this number is gonna get whacked. 1245 00:54:03,320 --> 00:54:06,480 Speaker 2: I gotta projected at five. Everything Stuck said is true. 1246 00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:08,440 Speaker 2: I will point you again to the Action Network to 1247 00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:11,560 Speaker 2: read my article that I have call them has Missouri 1248 00:54:11,600 --> 00:54:13,359 Speaker 2: in it. But I mean, I mean, Missouri hasn't lost 1249 00:54:13,360 --> 00:54:17,000 Speaker 2: a home in thirteen months. Their defense is legit. Florida 1250 00:54:17,080 --> 00:54:18,759 Speaker 2: is probably just trying to get into their bye week 1251 00:54:18,760 --> 00:54:20,040 Speaker 2: next week. They got a bye week, then they have 1252 00:54:20,040 --> 00:54:22,120 Speaker 2: Florida State probably just want to get a win here, 1253 00:54:22,480 --> 00:54:25,480 Speaker 2: get out. There's a lot of factors going in here 1254 00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:27,800 Speaker 2: in favor of Missouri and not for Florida. 1255 00:54:28,880 --> 00:54:31,879 Speaker 1: Yep, all right, let's also talk quickly. LSU will miss 1256 00:54:31,960 --> 00:54:34,879 Speaker 1: anything there. I played, I played a plus twenty one. 1257 00:54:34,880 --> 00:54:36,600 Speaker 1: I think that they are Look, they can move the 1258 00:54:36,640 --> 00:54:38,840 Speaker 1: ball on the ground a little bit, gallis you. Obviously 1259 00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:42,040 Speaker 1: there's a letdown factor here, But the LSU defense it's 1260 00:54:42,120 --> 00:54:43,960 Speaker 1: vulner I mean you can put up points on them, 1261 00:54:44,440 --> 00:54:46,440 Speaker 1: almost can compete. They don't know losing the game. But 1262 00:54:46,880 --> 00:54:49,200 Speaker 1: I like, will missing anything over twenty one, twenty one 1263 00:54:49,239 --> 00:54:49,400 Speaker 1: or row? 1264 00:54:49,600 --> 00:54:51,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, and I like it at twenty one and 1265 00:54:51,640 --> 00:54:53,040 Speaker 2: a half, which you can get in a couple of 1266 00:54:53,040 --> 00:54:57,200 Speaker 2: shops right now. And I'm just kind of can plumbly 1267 00:54:57,520 --> 00:55:01,160 Speaker 2: run absolutely crazy against this LSUD defense. How tired is 1268 00:55:01,160 --> 00:55:04,160 Speaker 2: this LSU defense? How are they feeling after a week 1269 00:55:04,160 --> 00:55:06,680 Speaker 2: of celebration. You're number one, You just beat your rival 1270 00:55:06,680 --> 00:55:09,319 Speaker 2: after a huge drought, same thing as Minnesota is one 1271 00:55:09,360 --> 00:55:11,800 Speaker 2: of the biggest victories in the program in a decade. 1272 00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:13,799 Speaker 2: I think there is a hangover look to this. The 1273 00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:16,120 Speaker 2: game is at night, so maybe LSU isn't as you know, 1274 00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:18,240 Speaker 2: caught off guard as it would be at an eleven 1275 00:55:18,280 --> 00:55:21,000 Speaker 2: am local kit kind of game. I am very much 1276 00:55:21,000 --> 00:55:23,680 Speaker 2: intrigued about Mississippi States quarterback. The plumb league kid has 1277 00:55:23,680 --> 00:55:28,200 Speaker 2: been impossible to catch on the ground, and you know 1278 00:55:28,440 --> 00:55:29,120 Speaker 2: LSU is. 1279 00:55:29,640 --> 00:55:29,960 Speaker 1: I don't know. 1280 00:55:30,000 --> 00:55:31,719 Speaker 2: We're gonna have to see. I'm gonna get deeper into it, 1281 00:55:31,719 --> 00:55:32,920 Speaker 2: but there could be an all misplay here. 1282 00:55:33,280 --> 00:55:34,680 Speaker 1: All right, before we get out of here, let's go 1283 00:55:34,760 --> 00:55:39,600 Speaker 1: three and out. Great, let's make it a quick three 1284 00:55:39,640 --> 00:55:43,400 Speaker 1: and out. We'll have articles up on both Friday night games. 1285 00:55:43,640 --> 00:55:46,520 Speaker 1: I'll give a nugget for Lateech Marshall here and just say, 1286 00:55:46,680 --> 00:55:49,480 Speaker 1: look LA Tech, who's on a roll. They haven't played anybody. 1287 00:55:49,680 --> 00:55:52,480 Speaker 1: You know, if you look at adjusted opponents on the 1288 00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:55,040 Speaker 1: offensive side, they have the easiest schedule in the country 1289 00:55:55,120 --> 00:55:56,960 Speaker 1: so far. I mean, go look at who they've played. 1290 00:55:57,200 --> 00:55:59,600 Speaker 1: It's been an absolute joke. I got this a two 1291 00:55:59,640 --> 00:56:02,280 Speaker 1: and a half. This is a short week. They've had exams, 1292 00:56:02,320 --> 00:56:04,920 Speaker 1: they're leaving on Thursday. They have six days to prepare. 1293 00:56:05,000 --> 00:56:06,800 Speaker 1: Marshals off of a bye I think they're gonna be 1294 00:56:06,800 --> 00:56:08,520 Speaker 1: able to run the ball. They'll control the line of scrimmage. 1295 00:56:08,680 --> 00:56:10,920 Speaker 1: I think Marshall gets the job done here. And this 1296 00:56:10,960 --> 00:56:13,360 Speaker 1: could be a preview Championship Conference USA. 1297 00:56:13,520 --> 00:56:15,400 Speaker 2: I think this is my money line partner with IOWA 1298 00:56:15,400 --> 00:56:17,640 Speaker 2: here on Marshall. You know, we'll have our Friday previews 1299 00:56:17,640 --> 00:56:20,400 Speaker 2: out Louisiana Tech's strength of schedules in play. There's a 1300 00:56:20,400 --> 00:56:23,399 Speaker 2: lot of things Marshall has advantage of in the advanced stats. 1301 00:56:23,680 --> 00:56:26,240 Speaker 1: And yeah, we'll That's something on Fresno San Diego State 1302 00:56:26,320 --> 00:56:28,920 Speaker 1: as well, which could be interesting. Could come to the 1303 00:56:28,960 --> 00:56:31,120 Speaker 1: special teams where San Diego State has the edge, but 1304 00:56:31,200 --> 00:56:35,480 Speaker 1: it's really just ugly offense for San Diego State against 1305 00:56:35,480 --> 00:56:38,040 Speaker 1: it ugly Presno State defense, and then you know, pretty 1306 00:56:38,040 --> 00:56:40,240 Speaker 1: good Fresno State offense against a really good san Diego 1307 00:56:40,280 --> 00:56:43,000 Speaker 1: State defensive, which what gives? Maybe it's special teams where 1308 00:56:43,000 --> 00:56:45,359 Speaker 1: San Diego State is much better. All right, let's go 1309 00:56:45,400 --> 00:56:48,800 Speaker 1: to second down. Here our favorite overdog, which you already 1310 00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:51,720 Speaker 1: know mine, Northwestern mass in yours. 1311 00:56:52,120 --> 00:56:53,799 Speaker 2: You saw minus twenty one. Try to get it for 1312 00:56:53,840 --> 00:56:54,839 Speaker 2: that hook comes. 1313 00:56:54,760 --> 00:56:58,160 Speaker 1: All right, and then time for our underdog money line parlay, 1314 00:57:01,120 --> 00:57:06,080 Speaker 1: turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the 1315 00:57:06,239 --> 00:57:10,000 Speaker 1: money line parlay. I saw that you wrote down Missouri. 1316 00:57:10,040 --> 00:57:12,720 Speaker 1: I couldn't believe it. Yeah, that was mine. I'm taking 1317 00:57:13,080 --> 00:57:17,400 Speaker 1: Georgia Tech just smells right. Thanks for listening, Colin, Thanks 1318 00:57:17,400 --> 00:57:20,720 Speaker 1: for joining me, rate review, subscribe. You know you know 1319 00:57:20,760 --> 00:57:23,560 Speaker 1: the drill. Tell a friend, tell an enemy. We appreciate 1320 00:57:23,560 --> 00:57:25,760 Speaker 1: you listening. Voicemails are open to all during the week. 1321 00:57:26,120 --> 00:57:29,280 Speaker 1: Call in scream yell, but good luck and thanks for listening. 1322 00:57:29,440 --> 00:57:30,520 Speaker 2: Cheers, peace out,