WEBVTT - Tarek Mansour on Kalshi's Plan to Create Markets in Everything 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:08.680 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:18.120 --> 0:00:20.520 Hello odd Laws listeners and viewers, You're about to get 0:00:20.560 --> 0:00:24.919 a conversation with Turrek Monsieur, CEO of Kelshi. This was 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:28.960 recorded live on stage at Chicago's Untitled supper Club. We 0:00:29.040 --> 0:00:31.280 had a blast, and we hope you enjoyed the show. 0:00:31.720 --> 0:00:35.519 You're definitely having a moment. The South Park episode last night, 0:00:35.800 --> 0:00:37.080 it was all about prediction markets. 0:00:37.159 --> 0:00:38.000 Did you watch it live? 0:00:38.880 --> 0:00:42.639 I try to avoid watching or reading anything about us 0:00:43.200 --> 0:00:46.400 without kind of getting the third party reaction before. So 0:00:46.440 --> 0:00:48.519 we didn't know because we saw the thing, like the 0:00:48.520 --> 0:00:51.120 announcement a few days ago there apisode prediction Markets, and 0:00:51.240 --> 0:00:52.839 we started kind of imagining all the types of things 0:00:52.840 --> 0:00:53.440 that they're going to do. 0:00:54.160 --> 0:00:54.720 It was crazy. 0:00:54.720 --> 0:00:56.520 I mean the highlight I think is like they copied 0:00:56.520 --> 0:01:00.560 the app like, yeah, exactly, I was. I mean, they 0:01:00.560 --> 0:01:02.160 even had the referrallable and they even had some of 0:01:02.160 --> 0:01:05.120 the bugs we haven't they have. It's like it was unbelievable. 0:01:05.200 --> 0:01:07.880 So but you know, it was. It was pretty cool. 0:01:08.040 --> 0:01:09.800 I mean, there's a few parts that I disagree with, 0:01:09.920 --> 0:01:12.160 but the other for the rest, I mean, we really 0:01:12.240 --> 0:01:12.680 enjoyed it. 0:01:13.440 --> 0:01:14.119 I watched it this. 0:01:14.000 --> 0:01:17.120 Morning why do you think prediction markets are having this 0:01:17.240 --> 0:01:21.319 moment now after they've been around for decades? Literally? Why? 0:01:21.360 --> 0:01:23.440 Now? Yeah, I mean I think there's like path dependence 0:01:23.440 --> 0:01:25.280 in these things, right, Like it's not sort of like 0:01:25.840 --> 0:01:27.640 I'm a strong believer. That's sort of like you know, 0:01:27.800 --> 0:01:29.520 in history, you have to have a few agents that 0:01:29.600 --> 0:01:31.760 sort of like push and you know, push the boundary 0:01:31.800 --> 0:01:35.240 of certain things and somebody's got to do it type thing. 0:01:35.840 --> 0:01:38.280 But my view on this, and that's why we started 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:40.520 the companies. The fundamentals are there, like this should be 0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:43.600 a very large market. And we could talk a little 0:01:43.600 --> 0:01:46.160 bit about the history. But when we first started the company, 0:01:47.280 --> 0:01:49.640 this idea of sort of like a financial market that 0:01:49.720 --> 0:01:53.360 prices questions about the future sort of we were very 0:01:53.440 --> 0:01:54.920 drawn to it because, you know, one, if you could 0:01:54.920 --> 0:01:56.640 build such a financial market, it could be the largest 0:01:56.640 --> 0:01:58.760 of them all because the largest number of people will care. 0:01:59.320 --> 0:02:01.520 And the number two could be the most important because 0:02:01.520 --> 0:02:05.000 you know, yes, pricing the you know, Sheriff Tesla is important, 0:02:05.000 --> 0:02:07.360 but pricing whether brexfast is going to happen, or Drum's 0:02:07.360 --> 0:02:09.200 gonna win in election, or or what's you know, the 0:02:09.880 --> 0:02:12.480 sort of the next natural disaster going to be. I 0:02:12.560 --> 0:02:15.240 think that's at least as important, if not more, at 0:02:15.360 --> 0:02:17.040 least from our perspective. I mean, when I looked at 0:02:17.040 --> 0:02:19.040 the history and you were chatting a little about the history, 0:02:19.080 --> 0:02:22.160 like the elephant the room was regulatory, it was I mean, 0:02:22.600 --> 0:02:25.440 there's a very simple kind of like first order factory here. Well, 0:02:25.480 --> 0:02:27.520 well it was illegal, like you know that that that's 0:02:27.560 --> 0:02:29.600 a pretty good reason for Yeah, I mean it's a 0:02:29.600 --> 0:02:31.400 pretty good reason for something not to you know, generally 0:02:31.440 --> 0:02:34.480 kind of go mainstream and exist. And the legality has 0:02:34.480 --> 0:02:37.600 been sort of the thing that has weighed on all 0:02:37.600 --> 0:02:39.919 prior prediction markets. I don't know if you ever counted 0:02:39.960 --> 0:02:40.440 in trade. 0:02:40.560 --> 0:02:42.359 Yeah, yeah, I trade it on there. 0:02:42.520 --> 0:02:44.079 Well you know, so so here you go, right, I 0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:47.440 mean in Trade was you know how that story kind 0:02:47.440 --> 0:02:48.240 of ended? 0:02:48.840 --> 0:02:49.680 How familiar are you? 0:02:50.200 --> 0:02:51.000 I don't know how to end it? 0:02:51.240 --> 0:02:53.440 So so so John Delaney was this was a sort of 0:02:53.480 --> 0:02:56.080 founder of in Trade and it's just kind of visionary. 0:02:56.120 --> 0:02:57.800 I mean, like Dawn in many ways. I mean he 0:02:57.880 --> 0:02:59.840 really believed that. You know, he was on CNBC back 0:02:59.840 --> 0:03:02.560 in two thousand sort of like talking about the forecast 0:03:02.639 --> 0:03:04.440 for the election and stuff. But he sort of ran 0:03:04.520 --> 0:03:06.519 offshore from Dublin and it was kind of like a 0:03:06.600 --> 0:03:09.320 VPN stype set up. And then the company got shut 0:03:09.320 --> 0:03:13.640 down in twenty twelve by the government, and two weeks 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:18.080 later John Laney died and he died climb Mount Everest, 0:03:18.080 --> 0:03:19.840 and there was a kind of whole controversy of like 0:03:19.880 --> 0:03:21.760 what happened? I mean, you know, was there some sort 0:03:21.800 --> 0:03:25.639 of causation there? But for us, when we we got 0:03:25.680 --> 0:03:28.040 really obsessed by doing this and realized like, actually, the 0:03:28.080 --> 0:03:30.840 only way for this to go big is we got 0:03:30.880 --> 0:03:33.239 to legalize it, like there was no other way. And 0:03:33.560 --> 0:03:35.280 no matter how big the company would get, no matter 0:03:35.360 --> 0:03:37.040 how kind of how much culture there was going to 0:03:37.080 --> 0:03:39.840 be around the company, it didn't really matter because the 0:03:39.880 --> 0:03:42.000 government could shut it down and they will after a 0:03:42.080 --> 0:03:44.960 certain level of scale. And so this was sort of 0:03:45.000 --> 0:03:46.760 like we spent you know, three years and a half 0:03:46.760 --> 0:03:48.920 when we started after starting CALSHI, like all we did 0:03:49.000 --> 0:03:51.520 was basically regulatory work. 0:03:51.760 --> 0:03:54.280 It was like, how do we leave fight exactly? 0:03:54.800 --> 0:03:56.720 The fight was actually like more like five years and 0:03:56.720 --> 0:03:58.040 a half, Like with three years and a half to 0:03:58.040 --> 0:04:01.120 get to legalize prediction markets, and was sort of the 0:04:01.160 --> 0:04:03.800 whole thing with the prior administration around the election market, 0:04:03.800 --> 0:04:05.960 which we were completely uncompromising on. 0:04:06.080 --> 0:04:08.480 We had to do that and that was kind. 0:04:08.360 --> 0:04:11.480 Of a whole two year long process that ended without 0:04:11.480 --> 0:04:13.480 suing the government, our own regulator. And then and then 0:04:13.720 --> 0:04:16.919 I think that lawsuit. I view it as sort of 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:19.159 the probably what the turning point is for these monkeys, 0:04:19.200 --> 0:04:21.800 like this is when we wanted the institution, Like this 0:04:21.839 --> 0:04:22.720 is when everything changed. 0:04:22.760 --> 0:04:25.960 I think, would you have died if Trump hadn't won 0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:27.080 in November. 0:04:27.960 --> 0:04:30.880 No, it would have just been slower and harder. But no, 0:04:31.040 --> 0:04:33.920 not died. I mean, we didn't die under the harshest 0:04:33.960 --> 0:04:36.440 environment of all. I think like, like, you know, well, 0:04:36.560 --> 0:04:38.440 the first right, the first three years and a half 0:04:38.520 --> 0:04:40.240 was like, well this was just not allowed, right, and 0:04:40.279 --> 0:04:42.560 we didn't you know, we kept sort of making progress 0:04:42.720 --> 0:04:45.760 all the way up onto legalizing and launching. But then, yeah, 0:04:45.760 --> 0:04:47.560 the reality is like the prior government I think was 0:04:47.680 --> 0:04:50.520 as hostile as it gets. That it was just not 0:04:51.360 --> 0:04:52.720 I mean, they just didn't want it to exist. 0:04:52.839 --> 0:04:56.160 So well, you say that, like it's really important to 0:04:56.200 --> 0:04:58.800 have a change in the regular landscape, that there was 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:01.360 no way this could have taken and off had this change, 0:05:01.520 --> 0:05:06.080 had this not changed. However, there is a competitor that 0:05:06.160 --> 0:05:10.679 you can access via VPN fund with stable coins. In theory, 0:05:10.720 --> 0:05:12.560 there doesn't even need to be a company that had 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:15.960 been operating for several years. Couldn't it have happened and 0:05:16.080 --> 0:05:19.560 could it still happen? That the future of prediction markets 0:05:19.960 --> 0:05:24.480 is on chain and essentially outside of the regulatory lands. 0:05:24.520 --> 0:05:26.560 I don't necessarily think that on chain off chain is 0:05:26.560 --> 0:05:29.080 sort of necessary. It kind of an unregulated regulated like 0:05:29.080 --> 0:05:30.960 like on chain doesn't mean illegal, right, Like. 0:05:31.240 --> 0:05:33.480 Sure so, but I think that like. 0:05:33.480 --> 0:05:36.679 But there was a lot of volume on this entity 0:05:36.720 --> 0:05:39.719 that had all kinds of things while we're talking about 0:05:39.720 --> 0:05:40.279 poly marketing. 0:05:40.400 --> 0:05:42.919 So it's not like we couldn't go on chain, right, 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:44.920 It's like this is not a very hard thing to build, right, 0:05:45.040 --> 0:05:46.800 And actually, like it's funny, like the first two weeks 0:05:46.800 --> 0:05:48.960 of cash we tried to do something on chain and realized, like, well, 0:05:49.279 --> 0:05:51.200 again it was a good way to sort of be 0:05:51.839 --> 0:05:54.120 maybe like somewhat smart about regular regulation, but not really 0:05:54.160 --> 0:05:56.760 because Augur was on chain also, and like that was 0:05:56.800 --> 0:05:58.719 also sort of shut down and it was a bunch 0:05:58.760 --> 0:05:59.640 of issues. 0:06:00.880 --> 0:06:01.200 For us. 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:03.560 We stood very firmly that like, for this to go mainstream, 0:06:03.680 --> 0:06:06.560 why you should avoid a VPN, you know, but also like, 0:06:06.600 --> 0:06:08.960 how do you have this be legitimized financial markets attract 0:06:09.000 --> 0:06:10.840 the type of institutions that would trade. You have a 0:06:10.880 --> 0:06:13.520 bunch of institutional partners and now the brokers and actually 0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:15.919 truly take this manstream. There was just no way to 0:06:15.920 --> 0:06:18.080 do it outside of the like this is the universe 0:06:18.080 --> 0:06:20.560 of financial markets. You can now do it outside. You 0:06:20.640 --> 0:06:22.400 have to expand it. And if you expand it, then 0:06:22.440 --> 0:06:24.120 I think we have a real winner. And I think 0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:26.440 the results show like, you know, yes, Bally has a 0:06:26.480 --> 0:06:28.720 lot of volume, but like there's not real revenue yet, 0:06:28.839 --> 0:06:30.960 there's a lot of wash. Like it's kind of how 0:06:31.000 --> 0:06:33.320 do you account for all this stuff? And even if 0:06:33.360 --> 0:06:35.320 you account for all of that today we're like something 0:06:35.320 --> 0:06:36.960 like three x bigger within a year. 0:06:37.120 --> 0:06:40.200 So definitely want to talk about the brokers and the 0:06:40.200 --> 0:06:42.800 market makers. But before we do, a very basic question, 0:06:43.520 --> 0:06:45.960 but often the basic questions are the most interesting. Can 0:06:46.000 --> 0:06:49.520 you walk us through the life cycle of you know, 0:06:49.560 --> 0:06:53.520 a binary event contract that gets created on your platform. 0:06:53.520 --> 0:06:56.000 It's a great question because that's a hard problem, right, 0:06:56.120 --> 0:06:59.120 like because the traditional markets, right the life cycle is 0:06:59.160 --> 0:07:02.640 like you know, you have an idea like grain futures 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:08.320 or Onion futures or GPU future your future, your futures, 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:09.119 there is a bad idea. 0:07:09.200 --> 0:07:10.440 It's out up a protection. 0:07:11.080 --> 0:07:11.240 I do. 0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:14.800 I do think it's a little lame that poly market, 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:17.160 like it hasn't done on your futures because if you're 0:07:17.160 --> 0:07:20.160 gonna look, what's the point of on train if you're 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:23.000 not sticking it to the man anyway. 0:07:22.800 --> 0:07:25.280 If like the Onion farmers are like finally having like 0:07:25.320 --> 0:07:27.720 instrumental hedge, And what's. 0:07:27.560 --> 0:07:29.760 The point of crypto if you're not using it to 0:07:29.840 --> 0:07:31.320 fight against rule? 0:07:31.640 --> 0:07:35.480 I mean, well, the Onion Future's rule is truly absurd. Yeah, yeah, 0:07:36.280 --> 0:07:38.520 it's like that's one of those but I guess now 0:07:38.520 --> 0:07:39.520 it's maybe kind of funny. 0:07:39.520 --> 0:07:41.120 Maybe we should just keep it. But like. 0:07:43.280 --> 0:07:45.320 Or like GEP I mean, or like GPU Future, I mean, 0:07:45.360 --> 0:07:48.000 like the point here is like you have something where 0:07:48.040 --> 0:07:50.480 the lifetime is infinite. You list the future and the 0:07:50.520 --> 0:07:52.440 derivative and it's sort of there forever, and then you 0:07:52.680 --> 0:07:54.840 build a liquidity over time and you can take your time. 0:07:54.880 --> 0:07:57.400 It takes like usually these things take time, they take 0:07:57.520 --> 0:07:59.160 years to kind of build up to market them and 0:07:59.160 --> 0:08:02.200 build equity. This is different, right, Like this is much 0:08:02.200 --> 0:08:05.720 more dynamic. It comes and goes like oftentimes the trend 0:08:06.000 --> 0:08:08.200 could be sort of like there for two to three weeks, 0:08:08.200 --> 0:08:10.480 sometimes a week, sometimes it's a day, and you have 0:08:10.480 --> 0:08:13.440 to much more, much faster, and kind of my mental 0:08:13.440 --> 0:08:14.880 model for what this looks like is sort of like 0:08:14.920 --> 0:08:17.520 there's an idea that can be from a user, from 0:08:17.280 --> 0:08:19.760 a from the news, from a trend from some tweet. 0:08:20.560 --> 0:08:22.480 Then there's the listing of the market, and then there's 0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:24.520 kind of like from a listing to kind of making 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:28.320 it reasonably liquid and active. So we've we've gone through 0:08:28.360 --> 0:08:31.600 like all kind of types of regulatory winters. But the 0:08:31.600 --> 0:08:34.120 first time we listed a market, it took us eighteen months. 0:08:34.360 --> 0:08:36.839 That was just for listing and because there's a lot 0:08:36.880 --> 0:08:39.600 like the operations attack. These are tickers, right like you 0:08:39.720 --> 0:08:42.320 list them like a stock or like a like WTI 0:08:42.480 --> 0:08:46.000 crude oil. Now we do it within thirty minutes, and 0:08:46.240 --> 0:08:48.200 so we've expanded the territory quite a bit. 0:08:48.920 --> 0:08:50.960 And when you list it, does it go to the 0:08:50.960 --> 0:08:52.839 CFTC or what. 0:08:52.880 --> 0:08:56.600 Basically processes there's like a self certification which basically fight 0:08:56.679 --> 0:09:01.120 with the CFC, and they kind of like generally historically 0:09:01.200 --> 0:09:03.160 is basically like if you file it and you haven't 0:09:03.200 --> 0:09:05.480 engaged with them beforehand. They usually will basically block it. 0:09:05.480 --> 0:09:07.800 They'll call you and say stop until we talk, and 0:09:07.840 --> 0:09:10.199 then you do it. But now we've covered so much 0:09:10.280 --> 0:09:12.920 territory and build so much technology and like the operations 0:09:12.920 --> 0:09:15.280 and the regulator in the loop, that like most new 0:09:15.320 --> 0:09:17.320 things that we do actually fit into a bucket that 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:20.160 we've already done. And sometimes there are complete new things, 0:09:20.160 --> 0:09:21.920 like right now, the frontier is actually some of the 0:09:22.000 --> 0:09:24.160 SEC company related markets. 0:09:24.200 --> 0:09:25.600 I think it's the sort of next frontier. 0:09:26.280 --> 0:09:28.960 But we've covered so much grounds now that like most 0:09:29.000 --> 0:09:30.960 things are like of a similar flavor. 0:09:47.679 --> 0:09:49.959 We've been going this whole time. You know, you talk 0:09:50.000 --> 0:09:54.800 about company related stuff, talk about hedging onion futures, maybe 0:09:54.960 --> 0:09:57.599 hedge or sorry, hedging onion prices. Maybe you want to 0:09:57.640 --> 0:10:01.240 strip out something related to Tesla car. But let's talk 0:10:01.240 --> 0:10:05.320 about the business. How much of this is sports right now? 0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:08.800 How big is the gap between volume on a Sunday 0:10:09.120 --> 0:10:10.400 versus volume on a Wednesday. 0:10:11.480 --> 0:10:14.080 Volume on a Sunday is very very big. But like 0:10:14.280 --> 0:10:17.280 it's interesting, I mean, like I'll say a few things, 0:10:17.280 --> 0:10:20.880 like the sports side has grown, Like I mean, I'm shocked. 0:10:21.000 --> 0:10:21.800 I'm still shocked. 0:10:22.040 --> 0:10:24.000 Like every week, we do a forecast and we beat it, 0:10:24.160 --> 0:10:26.760 and like, you know, America likes NFL. 0:10:26.800 --> 0:10:27.240 I mean I don't know. 0:10:27.400 --> 0:10:30.520 I mean they like football. I don't know, more than expected, 0:10:30.600 --> 0:10:32.600 I guess, but it's a little bit more than that. 0:10:32.760 --> 0:10:36.240 Like the thing about sports is, let's say there's two 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:40.640 things going on one there's just a lot of scheduled events. 0:10:40.960 --> 0:10:42.600 Okay, there's just a lot in the week. 0:10:42.920 --> 0:10:44.760 But if you compare like a one to one like 0:10:44.840 --> 0:10:48.600 a game to like basically anything that Trump does, Trump 0:10:48.640 --> 0:10:51.360 will win, like you know, like the in terms of 0:10:51.400 --> 0:10:53.440 volume one to one. He like these markets do really 0:10:53.440 --> 0:10:55.560 really well, and it could be literally unlike any I 0:10:55.600 --> 0:10:56.480 mean anything he does. 0:10:57.280 --> 0:11:00.600 The problem there is like there's not enough schedule, like 0:11:02.480 --> 0:11:06.600 I think there may be over just what percentages on Sunday, 0:11:06.679 --> 0:11:08.680 Like it's not I mean probably ninety percent of sports 0:11:08.720 --> 0:11:11.720 on like a regular weekdays like much lower. 0:11:11.760 --> 0:11:13.800 And what's the gap and harm between three acts? 0:11:13.920 --> 0:11:14.240 Maybe? 0:11:14.280 --> 0:11:16.880 Okay, okay, so like yeah, I mean NFL Sunday is 0:11:16.880 --> 0:11:18.400 like massive, but it's a little bit like it's it's 0:11:18.440 --> 0:11:19.600 a littally like asking a question. 0:11:19.520 --> 0:11:21.760 Like okay, well, on election Day, what was the volume? Right? Yeah, 0:11:21.880 --> 0:11:23.840 it's like nine nine elections. 0:11:23.920 --> 0:11:27.320 Right, So, so sports is very large, but like we 0:11:27.360 --> 0:11:29.720 have other categories now, like like culture, for example, I 0:11:29.720 --> 0:11:31.320 think is like growing at a similar rate. That's just 0:11:31.480 --> 0:11:34.560 starting from much lower baseline, and our market diversity, our 0:11:34.600 --> 0:11:37.040 liquid is just not there yet, whereas sports is much 0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:39.079 more kind of like I would say, like much more 0:11:39.080 --> 0:11:41.000 diverse and much more liquid. 0:11:41.120 --> 0:11:43.120 Okay, so I'm going to ask the obvious question, I guess, 0:11:43.200 --> 0:11:45.040 but why is it not sports betting? 0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:48.199 You know, I don't have kind of like as much 0:11:48.200 --> 0:11:49.720 a problem with the word betting. I think gambling is 0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:51.160 sort of where where I have a problem. I mean, 0:11:51.640 --> 0:11:53.439 you know, when like see me launch Water Future is 0:11:53.480 --> 0:11:54.840 like three four years ago, and you know I remember 0:11:54.920 --> 0:11:56.120 like the headline about that is like, oh you can 0:11:56.160 --> 0:11:58.200 now bet on water. It's like all right, I mean, 0:11:58.360 --> 0:11:59.920 I guess the word betting is you use very sort 0:11:59.960 --> 0:12:03.120 of loosely. But like I would say two things, the 0:12:03.240 --> 0:12:04.760 sort of the legal question and there sort of the 0:12:05.280 --> 0:12:06.800 ethic goal is this good for society? 0:12:06.840 --> 0:12:07.080 Question? 0:12:07.120 --> 0:12:10.160 And those are we will do both of them, don't worry. 0:12:10.200 --> 0:12:12.680 Yeah, let's I mean, I guess. So the legal question, 0:12:12.720 --> 0:12:15.520 I mean, like our approach has always been sort of 0:12:15.600 --> 0:12:17.680 legal and regulated first, like always do it within the 0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:20.120 bounds and expand the bounds. So we did this friction market. 0:12:20.160 --> 0:12:22.280 Then elections, you know, I mean a year ago right 0:12:23.080 --> 0:12:26.440 well ego, even like I mean, people were saying, this 0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:28.520 is going to destroy democracy, right like it was it 0:12:28.559 --> 0:12:30.959 was the end of the world if we ever got legalized, 0:12:31.000 --> 0:12:33.840 and like you know, and like it was and then 0:12:33.880 --> 0:12:36.640 we legalized, and it was like super biased and you know, 0:12:36.880 --> 0:12:38.280 I was being accused of being more sad agent. 0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:39.880 I don't remember that period, but like it was. 0:12:39.880 --> 0:12:42.360 Like I missed no one, like it was like a 0:12:42.360 --> 0:12:44.240 whole thing about you know, I worked at pountry and 0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:47.160 thus I'm obviously kind of rigging the election. But like 0:12:47.400 --> 0:12:50.520 and obviously the vibe has shifted pretty dramatically with the election. 0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:53.079 And because you know, there is some kind of powers 0:12:53.120 --> 0:12:55.480 these markets. So when it comes to sports, like on 0:12:55.559 --> 0:12:59.400 the legal piece, like it is legal, like doc could 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:01.640 stop it if I wanted to, but the states can't. 0:13:02.040 --> 0:13:05.200 That's federal preemption. And that's how it works. And we're 0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:07.600 extremely strong legal footing. I mean, Don was mentioning sort 0:13:07.600 --> 0:13:09.000 of the I don't think safety is a sleep at 0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:10.760 the wheel, Like you know, they have less staff but 0:13:10.800 --> 0:13:12.839 they have staff, and the staff is aware of sports 0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:14.760 we talked about and it's not like we showed up 0:13:14.760 --> 0:13:17.400 one day like hey, surprise, sports markets are here. 0:13:18.000 --> 0:13:22.280 Like, isn't Trump's nominee also on your board, the nominee 0:13:22.280 --> 0:13:22.920 for CFTC. 0:13:23.160 --> 0:13:24.199 Well he was X nominee. 0:13:24.200 --> 0:13:25.800 Now, I mean, we'll see, but I mean I don't know, 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:27.000 but I don't know if it's X nominy. 0:13:27.040 --> 0:13:28.240 But like there there's a kind of questions. 0:13:28.280 --> 0:13:31.760 But he was not there when this happened, and like 0:13:31.800 --> 0:13:34.800 he was, he's still not there actually, so I don't 0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:37.199 think it's very relevant to the question. I think the 0:13:37.240 --> 0:13:40.480 change of the administration is well into the question, Like yes, 0:13:40.640 --> 0:13:41.720 I mean I think it would have been much more 0:13:41.760 --> 0:13:42.880 challenging in the prior administration. 0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:45.640 Like there's no question about that. But the law is 0:13:45.640 --> 0:13:46.120 pretty clear. 0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:47.920 I mean, if you read the Commodities Exchange, actor's like 0:13:47.920 --> 0:13:52.280 a two prong test and it's is an event kind 0:13:52.280 --> 0:13:55.760 of related to war, terrism, assassination, violence, or gaming, and 0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:58.040 then there's some sort of illegal stuff that's illegal under 0:13:58.040 --> 0:14:00.439 state or federal law, and so you can fall under 0:14:00.440 --> 0:14:02.280 de cart We could debate whether this falls under gaming 0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:02.560 or not. 0:14:03.040 --> 0:14:04.680 And there's actually quite a bit of a debate there. 0:14:04.720 --> 0:14:06.880 And then the second test, which is like, if it 0:14:06.880 --> 0:14:10.600 does fall under dis category, tifcy can make an explicit 0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:14.480 determination that is contrary to public interest. Right, so there 0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:16.840 is that sort of second standard, yeah, which rais me 0:14:17.160 --> 0:14:20.160 second question, which is like, I'm just shaw and believer 0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:21.960 in markets, Like I think a market based model for 0:14:22.000 --> 0:14:25.560 these market is better than the over the counter sports. 0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:27.080 Book model because the odds are better. 0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:29.200 Anyone can be a price better, they don't have to 0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:32.160 be a price taker, and the results show like less people, 0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:34.160 Like the percentage of people that basically lose on CASHI 0:14:34.160 --> 0:14:35.200 is closer to fifty to fifty. 0:14:35.320 --> 0:14:37.360 It's just not the case and like a traditional. 0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:39.040 Sports book, And I think that's the sort of argument 0:14:39.040 --> 0:14:41.560 that wins it long term, which is like this is 0:14:41.640 --> 0:14:45.040 just better, Like you get better prices, more transparency, and 0:14:45.160 --> 0:14:47.760 the ability to you know, influence, like basically participate in 0:14:47.800 --> 0:14:49.320 a way you can't an a traditional model. 0:14:49.960 --> 0:14:53.040 You already said that you don't think that the distinction 0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:57.440 is not between trading and betting, the distinction between betting 0:14:57.560 --> 0:15:00.560 and gambling. See sort of preempted to question, But there 0:15:00.600 --> 0:15:02.440 is this Facebook ad that I saw, and it says 0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:06.800 breaking news, sports betting in California is now legal, And 0:15:06.840 --> 0:15:08.640 I saw a screenshot but I couldn't find it. I 0:15:08.640 --> 0:15:10.720 found it on a blog. But is that like an 0:15:10.760 --> 0:15:12.160 actual Kelsey ad that. 0:15:12.400 --> 0:15:14.280 Ran, well, we have a very large marketing team and 0:15:14.280 --> 0:15:16.320 this is the ad is not there anymore, but like regardless, 0:15:16.480 --> 0:15:20.360 I mean that was what you gotta imagine a company 0:15:20.360 --> 0:15:24.520 that's like rule one hundred x so like like nothing, you. 0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:28.000 Know, you're saying like breaking news, Like I guess what 0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:29.800 I'm saying is like we all know what's going on. 0:15:30.120 --> 0:15:31.640 Well, the news is breaking. I mean it is legal 0:15:31.640 --> 0:15:33.880 to trade ony states. I mean that that's big news, 0:15:33.920 --> 0:15:36.160 like you know, yeah, and we are ligitally I mean 0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:39.080 you know so, but like I do actually think that, 0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:43.240 like I'm not as worried about this, like like you know, 0:15:43.400 --> 0:15:45.320 the word gambling is the one that really irks me, 0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:49.240 Like I think, you know, because like okay, zero zero 0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:53.240 DT options, like like what retail is doing work like 0:15:53.240 --> 0:15:54.800 a trillion dollars of all I mean you probably know 0:15:54.800 --> 0:15:55.160 the numbers. 0:15:55.200 --> 0:15:55.680 What is it there? 0:15:56.640 --> 0:15:58.520 I can't remember, but it's a lot. 0:15:58.640 --> 0:16:02.120 Yeah, So what is retail doing the like hedging? I mean, right, no, 0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:04.080 what exactly are they doing. 0:16:05.480 --> 0:16:06.240 They're gambling. 0:16:06.640 --> 0:16:07.520 I don't know about that. 0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:09.760 No, I think, I mean, I think it's fun. Like 0:16:09.960 --> 0:16:12.720 I agree with like this premise that the well. 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:15.320 Draw line is basically like like it's it's the sort 0:16:15.320 --> 0:16:17.000 of thing where like I mean, in nineteen oh five, 0:16:17.280 --> 0:16:18.560 I think we talked a little b about this, Like 0:16:18.600 --> 0:16:20.960 the Supreme Court there was this whole question of grain 0:16:21.000 --> 0:16:22.840 futures like should it be gambling or should it be 0:16:23.040 --> 0:16:23.880 a financial instrument? 0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:25.200 And if it was gambling was going to go under 0:16:25.200 --> 0:16:26.040 the bucket shop laws. 0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:28.560 And it was this sort of Supreme Court case Chicago 0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:32.840 Board of Trade versus Christie, where Supreme Court basically like 0:16:33.160 --> 0:16:35.000 ruled in favor of the Chicago War of Trade, which 0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:37.280 is like, yes, a lot of people are speculating, but 0:16:37.320 --> 0:16:40.000 there's value to these markets beyond the actual speculative. 0:16:40.240 --> 0:16:41.640 You know, activity is taking place. 0:16:41.640 --> 0:16:43.320 And then you get into the kind of question of 0:16:43.360 --> 0:16:45.880 like what is the standard of the Commodities Exchange Act, 0:16:45.920 --> 0:16:48.080 Like should all the activity be hedging? Well, if if 0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:50.280 that's the case, then you let's just cancel the whole act. 0:16:50.600 --> 0:16:54.120 Let's just stop trading altogether. Because in most markets, including 0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:57.600 grain futures, like ninety five percent laws is not hedging 0:16:57.600 --> 0:17:00.000 expeculative and I think that's true in the sock market. 0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:02.160 And so you know, and then like, okay, well how 0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:04.920 do you distinguish and you know, should we take out 0:17:04.920 --> 0:17:06.520 the spectator and just keep the hedging. Well, if you 0:17:06.560 --> 0:17:08.680 do that, then there's no liquidity and so it doesn't work. 0:17:09.200 --> 0:17:10.960 And then how do you even know who's hedging and speculating? 0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:13.760 Do you go and check? So so you go into 0:17:13.800 --> 0:17:17.440 all these different questions. But like, to me, gambling is 0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:19.320 sort of like you create an artificial risk and then 0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:21.159 you roll a dice and then you gamble on it, 0:17:21.560 --> 0:17:24.240 you know, but trading on whether breaksit happened or not, 0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:25.280 that's just like a natural risk. 0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:25.960 That's sort of there. 0:17:26.640 --> 0:17:28.919 And then the second question is that and to me, 0:17:29.000 --> 0:17:31.119 the even more important one is like the the market 0:17:31.160 --> 0:17:34.120 based mechanism versus sort of like you walk into a casino, 0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:38.440 the odds are like structurally stacked against you, and actually 0:17:38.440 --> 0:17:40.280 if you start making money, they like, in the best 0:17:40.320 --> 0:17:43.880 case scenario, they basically, you know, stop you from participating, 0:17:43.920 --> 0:17:45.800 and that happens in sportsboks and others. And the worst 0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:48.520 case scenario, they like kneecap you right, like they and 0:17:48.600 --> 0:17:50.720 so that to me is gambling. Like it's like the 0:17:51.000 --> 0:17:53.560 revenue of the company is equal to the losses of 0:17:53.560 --> 0:17:56.320 its customer and vice versa. I just don't think this 0:17:56.400 --> 0:17:57.760 is the same here, Like, that's not how the New 0:17:57.840 --> 0:18:00.280 York startion makes its money. It makes it funny based 0:18:00.280 --> 0:18:02.399 on fees. Same with Robin, and same with you know, 0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:05.320 same with Calci, And so I think there's a big 0:18:05.359 --> 0:18:06.200 structural difference. 0:18:06.440 --> 0:18:08.479 Well, this was going to be my next question actually, 0:18:08.480 --> 0:18:11.679 So setting aside the gambling terminology, part of your argument 0:18:11.720 --> 0:18:14.560 here is that even if it is betting, it is 0:18:14.600 --> 0:18:18.840 somehow qualitatively different than traditional betting, where you know, you 0:18:18.960 --> 0:18:23.000 have a sports bookmaker who's setting all the prices. And 0:18:23.040 --> 0:18:26.159 you said earlier that there is more transparency and fairer 0:18:26.200 --> 0:18:29.439 pricing and all of that. But then again, if you 0:18:29.480 --> 0:18:31.520 look at some of the words that your own company 0:18:31.720 --> 0:18:35.280 has used to describe this. You put up job advertisements 0:18:35.320 --> 0:18:39.440 saying that you need experts in something similar to sports 0:18:39.440 --> 0:18:40.160 book pricing. 0:18:40.880 --> 0:18:42.160 No, that's not quite right. 0:18:42.200 --> 0:18:45.199 Now, the job is the sports operations, listing the markets, 0:18:45.200 --> 0:18:46.840 how to settle them in all these different things, which 0:18:46.960 --> 0:18:49.280 that dynamic is very similar, right, Like you have to 0:18:49.680 --> 0:18:52.119 know which markets list, how to list them? What are 0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:54.119 the price feeds to kind of like pull up to 0:18:54.480 --> 0:18:57.000 pull to basically settle whether it's sort of like this 0:18:57.080 --> 0:19:01.080 team one versus the other. That's very different, like you know, 0:19:01.480 --> 0:19:03.919 we need I don't know, like someone who is like 0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:07.280 an expert and like you know, like programmed to like 0:19:07.359 --> 0:19:09.879 you know, bring in traders and figure out how to optimize, 0:19:09.920 --> 0:19:12.679 like how to like optimize like losses and things like that. 0:19:12.680 --> 0:19:13.800 Like this is very very different. 0:19:13.960 --> 0:19:16.280 Well, talk to us how the prices are actually set then, 0:19:16.359 --> 0:19:19.320 And why does you know a platform that ostensibly is 0:19:19.359 --> 0:19:22.400 a peer to peer trading platform need market makers at all? 0:19:23.040 --> 0:19:24.720 Well, if you listen to new market right now, like 0:19:24.840 --> 0:19:28.399 on let's give an example, like even fed rates, you 0:19:28.520 --> 0:19:31.280 got to kick started somehow, right, Like the financial markets 0:19:31.280 --> 0:19:33.359 need market makers right, and they are peer to Like 0:19:33.400 --> 0:19:35.320 financial markets are the ultimate version of peer to peer. 0:19:35.359 --> 0:19:36.000 That's what they are. 0:19:36.480 --> 0:19:38.360 But it's basically a way to kickstart and move shabequity 0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:42.160 and actually are our most liquid markets. The more successful 0:19:42.200 --> 0:19:45.560 market becomes, the more profitable market becomes, the lower the 0:19:45.560 --> 0:19:48.639 percentage of market makers, like whether it's like partners like 0:19:48.640 --> 0:19:51.800 Susquehanna and in soitutional market makers and others, and the 0:19:51.880 --> 0:19:55.240 higher it is that it's basically organic liquiity. So actually 0:19:55.280 --> 0:19:57.760 the more successful it is and the more profitable for us, 0:19:57.800 --> 0:20:01.200 and like you know anybody, it's the lower the participation 0:20:01.280 --> 0:20:03.480 of these market makers. So the use is actually like 0:20:04.200 --> 0:20:06.399 you got to have somebody that starts to bid asked, 0:20:06.400 --> 0:20:09.200 like otherwise you put a market and there's nothing, it's 0:20:09.240 --> 0:20:11.400 just that, And so you have to kind of break 0:20:11.400 --> 0:20:13.520 the chicken in the egg in some ways. You start 0:20:13.560 --> 0:20:15.879 with the chicken and you incentivize that chicken so that 0:20:15.920 --> 0:20:18.240 the egg comes and then you basically get the flywheel rolling. 0:20:19.000 --> 0:20:21.280 So I think it's kind of exactly it's the same 0:20:21.280 --> 0:20:23.560 as financial markets. And like a lot of our liquidity 0:20:23.880 --> 0:20:26.600 is in the non liquid markets market make it driven 0:20:26.640 --> 0:20:28.480 and the liquid markets non market drive. 0:20:44.920 --> 0:20:49.120 Let's talk about some non sports stuff and the future, 0:20:49.320 --> 0:20:53.320 Like you could sort of futurize anything right when you 0:20:53.440 --> 0:20:56.439 envision it. Could you have could we one day have 0:20:57.200 --> 0:21:00.320 a future for every single stock on the extra change, 0:21:00.359 --> 0:21:05.040 a perpetual future, a perpetual Tesla future, a perpetual Apple future, 0:21:05.119 --> 0:21:08.199 a perpetual like could it be a world that we 0:21:08.280 --> 0:21:11.439 live in one day and a perpetual tenure treasury future. 0:21:11.520 --> 0:21:13.800 I mean Goshi's everything in Arabic, right, So so you 0:21:13.840 --> 0:21:16.120 know the long term vision is like yes, I mean 0:21:16.680 --> 0:21:18.880 I just think, like you, we should have a market. 0:21:18.880 --> 0:21:23.280 Perpetual a future for private companies SpaceX future. 0:21:23.359 --> 0:21:25.800 Yeah, and you know, like the idea, So I get 0:21:25.880 --> 0:21:28.760 like one, I guess general and then specific answer generally 0:21:28.760 --> 0:21:30.800 and then specifically. So the general is sort of principles, 0:21:30.840 --> 0:21:33.240 Like I think anything that has a different opinion, the 0:21:33.240 --> 0:21:37.119 difference of opinion of qualitative opinion, should basically have a 0:21:37.160 --> 0:21:39.160 mechanism to resolve that quantitatively. 0:21:39.240 --> 0:21:39.640 Mm hmm. 0:21:39.880 --> 0:21:42.160 So like instead of debating subjectively or something like less, 0:21:42.160 --> 0:21:44.439 debate about it objectively and quantitatively, which. 0:21:44.320 --> 0:21:46.439 Is trading, you know, what's something and so. 0:21:47.280 --> 0:21:48.960 And then there's some limits, like I think there are 0:21:49.040 --> 0:21:51.679 markets that do create bad incentives and I think actually 0:21:51.760 --> 0:21:54.120 see A does handle them, and like we we haven't 0:21:54.119 --> 0:21:57.040 done these markets. But to your question, like, yes, I 0:21:57.080 --> 0:21:59.080 think that's that's probably what the next frontier looks like. 0:21:59.080 --> 0:22:02.440 And I think that the concept of security futures has 0:22:02.520 --> 0:22:05.520 been like a very kind of like I'd say, it's 0:22:05.520 --> 0:22:07.040 been a very exciting concept for that I mean even 0:22:07.080 --> 0:22:09.399 pre Calci. It's not like we're But I think the 0:22:09.840 --> 0:22:13.280 SCF T C SEC relationship historically has been a big 0:22:13.320 --> 0:22:15.440 part of the bottleneck because if you're on the SEC side, 0:22:15.440 --> 0:22:17.560 you can't red don't relydo futures, and if you're on 0:22:17.600 --> 0:22:19.400 CFC side, your futures that you don't do securities. 0:22:19.560 --> 0:22:20.920 And then you have this question like should I get 0:22:21.040 --> 0:22:21.880 reggae by both? 0:22:21.920 --> 0:22:24.960 I mean, you already have one that's sort of I 0:22:24.960 --> 0:22:28.760 mean you're like daily in your operations already very tough. 0:22:29.359 --> 0:22:30.360 Now you're adding a second one. 0:22:30.359 --> 0:22:32.600 And it doesn't scale linearly, it's scale its scale sort 0:22:32.600 --> 0:22:35.600 of quadratically, and so it's been really tough historically. But 0:22:35.720 --> 0:22:38.040 maybe now in this environment, I think it might be possible, 0:22:38.280 --> 0:22:40.119 and maybe maybe we'll figure it out on Monday. 0:22:40.160 --> 0:22:42.240 So we'll see on Monday. 0:22:42.320 --> 0:22:44.320 Okay, Can I go back to the market makers for 0:22:44.359 --> 0:22:46.560 a second, because this is an area where I think 0:22:46.560 --> 0:22:49.600 people have a lot of questions, But what are the 0:22:49.640 --> 0:22:52.720 actual obligations of market makers on your platform? And you 0:22:52.800 --> 0:22:54.760 talked about how in the beginning, you know, maybe you 0:22:54.800 --> 0:22:59.640 have this really esoteric contract about throwing rubber objects onto 0:22:59.680 --> 0:23:01.359 basket ball courts or whatever it is. 0:23:01.480 --> 0:23:05.000 We don't have that, but but you yeah, the other 0:23:06.080 --> 0:23:07.240 that one, the CFC would block. 0:23:07.400 --> 0:23:11.359 You know, how do market makers decide what contracts to 0:23:11.400 --> 0:23:15.399 actually support initially? And are they obligated to come in 0:23:15.440 --> 0:23:17.160 and provide for everything? 0:23:17.640 --> 0:23:17.840 No? 0:23:17.920 --> 0:23:22.040 Because well not everything no, because like well if well 0:23:22.119 --> 0:23:24.960 you have fair access sort of requirements and a CFC 0:23:25.040 --> 0:23:27.439 reggae exchange, so you have to have rules that like 0:23:27.520 --> 0:23:32.040 basically are generally like accessible by anybody in a certain 0:23:32.080 --> 0:23:33.719 sort of like trans or two or whatever. But like 0:23:34.080 --> 0:23:35.760 if a market maker wants to come and trade on CASHI, 0:23:35.800 --> 0:23:37.479 they could do that, and they have no obligations they 0:23:37.480 --> 0:23:40.240 can make, they could take, they could do whatever they want. Generally, 0:23:40.280 --> 0:23:42.760 what happens is like you know, if a market maker 0:23:42.800 --> 0:23:45.040 wants like okay, but then how do you kind of 0:23:45.280 --> 0:23:47.800 incentivize equity? Then you could sort of say, like okay, 0:23:47.800 --> 0:23:49.960 maybe you rebate you some fees if you basically commit 0:23:50.000 --> 0:23:51.800 to obligations, and the obligations the way they look like 0:23:51.920 --> 0:23:53.919 is like if you make on the fed market. So 0:23:53.920 --> 0:23:57.440 that's an actual specific example, like you put like seventy 0:23:57.480 --> 0:24:01.200 five thousand contracts up on each side within like three 0:24:01.200 --> 0:24:03.600 to four cent spread, and you have like ninety eight percent. 0:24:03.400 --> 0:24:04.960 Availability, so you're pretty much there. 0:24:04.960 --> 0:24:07.399 Every time we kind of probe you could, for example, 0:24:07.440 --> 0:24:09.080 get your fees that you pay, rebate it so you 0:24:09.080 --> 0:24:10.959 don't have to pay. So that's kind of like actually 0:24:11.520 --> 0:24:13.240 our most common type. I mean, this is pretty much 0:24:13.240 --> 0:24:16.120 like marketing program I love them. Are public and people 0:24:16.160 --> 0:24:18.159 can sign up to which markets they want to participate it. 0:24:18.200 --> 0:24:20.399 So some people sign up to economics, some people do politics, 0:24:20.400 --> 0:24:22.280 some people do sports, some people do a combo of both. 0:24:22.320 --> 0:24:24.720 A lot of people do financials. And the reason you 0:24:24.760 --> 0:24:27.680 want that actually is because without any sort of structure, 0:24:28.240 --> 0:24:30.080 then no one is going to commit to anything, right 0:24:30.160 --> 0:24:31.840 Like then people will only do it when it's like 0:24:32.080 --> 0:24:34.320 advantageous for them, and they won't do it when it's 0:24:34.480 --> 0:24:36.719 maybe like a novel market where we need to kind 0:24:36.720 --> 0:24:38.760 of bootshop liquidity and so on. So you have to 0:24:38.800 --> 0:24:40.840 figure out the sort of setup incentive, especially in the beginning, 0:24:40.880 --> 0:24:43.040 and those over time go down as the market goes 0:24:43.400 --> 0:24:44.840 more and more liquid as you need less. 0:24:44.680 --> 0:24:45.240 And less of them. 0:24:45.720 --> 0:24:48.760 And are the rebates and incentives and I guess the 0:24:48.880 --> 0:24:52.320 information is that equal for all the market makers on 0:24:52.359 --> 0:24:54.280 the platform, because you also have depends. 0:24:54.000 --> 0:24:58.280 On the abligations. Okay, so you're like, so finish the sentence. Well, 0:24:58.320 --> 0:25:00.600 I was going to ask about kt Yeah. Yeah, so 0:25:00.640 --> 0:25:02.560 people ask a lot about Cashi trade. So fully it's 0:25:02.560 --> 0:25:05.320 fully information, like we've operated for five years. It's fully 0:25:05.320 --> 0:25:07.840 solid Informationally it's like run independently and so on and 0:25:07.960 --> 0:25:11.119 so forth. What I can say, like emphatically, Katie has 0:25:11.160 --> 0:25:13.560 absolutely no advantages like in any way, shape or form 0:25:13.600 --> 0:25:16.520 of other marketmakers with market participants. And we've always said that, 0:25:16.960 --> 0:25:18.840 you know where we don't think of this as a 0:25:18.880 --> 0:25:22.399 flank because it's true and the safety audits us and 0:25:22.440 --> 0:25:26.320 they see the numbers and the numbers you know, are factual. 0:25:26.359 --> 0:25:29.240 They're now the best performing trader, let alone marketmaker on 0:25:29.320 --> 0:25:31.639 Calshi by orders of magnitude. 0:25:31.680 --> 0:25:34.760 Like you know, I leave it that they're successful because 0:25:34.760 --> 0:25:35.959 they're not that successful. 0:25:38.080 --> 0:25:40.160 They're doing okay, I would say, And it's it's fine 0:25:40.280 --> 0:25:42.080 they haven't. I mean they you know, try to kind 0:25:42.080 --> 0:25:43.159 of like booch op to quit in some of the 0:25:43.160 --> 0:25:45.159 markets are harder and so on and so forth, and 0:25:45.200 --> 0:25:47.080 that's a good thing, like otherwise these markets would sort 0:25:47.080 --> 0:25:49.320 of not be there. But say for sure is they 0:25:49.320 --> 0:25:52.800 don't have any privileges or you know, benefits out aside 0:25:52.800 --> 0:25:55.000 from anybody else, aside from SIG. Aside from we have 0:25:55.200 --> 0:25:57.159 some small teams two three people that sign up to 0:25:57.160 --> 0:26:00.240 marketmaker programs. Some of these teams are actually beating all 0:26:00.240 --> 0:26:02.480 the other market institutional including ours. 0:26:02.480 --> 0:26:03.880 Institional usually better than ours. 0:26:03.960 --> 0:26:06.600 But like what we do is like there's like tiers, 0:26:06.600 --> 0:26:09.320 So if you kind of like buy by certain conditions, 0:26:09.320 --> 0:26:09.720 you can. 0:26:09.600 --> 0:26:10.679 Get more rebates. 0:26:11.119 --> 0:26:14.080 Then if you do lower conditions and less rebates, and 0:26:14.160 --> 0:26:16.400 those tiers accessible to anybody that basically would. 0:26:16.160 --> 0:26:17.560 Do the conditions uniformly. 0:26:17.880 --> 0:26:20.720 One because regulatory wise we have to and then two 0:26:21.520 --> 0:26:23.320 otherwise like people didn't trust the sort of marketplace. 0:26:23.840 --> 0:26:24.920 So yeah, there's. 0:26:24.720 --> 0:26:27.160 No, no, none, Like we got accused a lot about 0:26:27.200 --> 0:26:29.600 a lot of different things, you know, but like that's normal. 0:26:29.640 --> 0:26:31.439 I mean there's like a lot of incentives and interests 0:26:31.520 --> 0:26:34.000 that on the other side of this equation for specifically 0:26:34.080 --> 0:26:36.399 now sports. At the time it was elections, but I 0:26:36.640 --> 0:26:38.639 think that kind of like we let the truth mean 0:26:38.760 --> 0:26:39.520 revert over time. 0:26:40.080 --> 0:26:43.160 So obviously you have these sort of legacy market makers 0:26:43.200 --> 0:26:46.840 who are now participating on your platform. You mentioned Susquehana, 0:26:46.880 --> 0:26:50.520 et cetera. Have you seen like I'm very curious about 0:26:50.600 --> 0:26:55.919 whether we'll see legacy institutions become actual sort of like 0:26:56.359 --> 0:26:59.200 use your markets for actual head dream purposes. Now, I'm 0:26:59.240 --> 0:27:02.040 sure there's some around the election, but some of these 0:27:02.080 --> 0:27:04.960 other things, Like I'm curious, for example, do you know 0:27:05.080 --> 0:27:08.399 other hedge funds that might have a particular trade on 0:27:08.920 --> 0:27:12.760 and they want to hedge against the possibility of a 0:27:12.800 --> 0:27:16.000 negative NFP print because they think that a bad jobs 0:27:16.040 --> 0:27:18.080 report is going to bust some trade like that is 0:27:18.600 --> 0:27:21.720 the risk, or maybe a sort of hot CPI trade, 0:27:21.720 --> 0:27:26.080 et cetera. Do you see institutions using these markets yet 0:27:26.080 --> 0:27:29.520 to actually take hedging or positional trades yet? 0:27:29.720 --> 0:27:31.920 So, yes, But it's kind of a size thing, right, 0:27:32.000 --> 0:27:34.920 Like the main bottleneck is basically equity, And it goes 0:27:34.960 --> 0:27:36.159 back to the same question. It's like you have to 0:27:36.200 --> 0:27:39.119 incentivize more and more equity over time so that like 0:27:39.320 --> 0:27:42.119 you get the larger sizes like a typical I mean, 0:27:42.119 --> 0:27:43.560 the way I think about it is like there's a 0:27:43.640 --> 0:27:46.000 small prop shops and the smaller shops like those are 0:27:46.000 --> 0:27:47.879 doing some and like because you can take millions of 0:27:47.880 --> 0:27:51.399 the querity on CASHI, it's not that difficult. Now depends 0:27:51.400 --> 0:27:53.119 on the markets and so on. But then if you 0:27:53.160 --> 0:27:55.680 get to serve of the buyside ferns, like the larger yeah, 0:27:55.840 --> 0:27:58.640 you know, like you know, we're just getting the top 0:27:58.680 --> 0:28:01.280 ten fifteen on the street, ten to fifteen hatches on 0:28:01.280 --> 0:28:03.520 the street, and then after that corporation is like then 0:28:03.560 --> 0:28:07.160 you're talking like the minimum minimum size like for even 0:28:07.280 --> 0:28:10.080 two care as eight figures, but probably fifty to one hundred. 0:28:10.320 --> 0:28:12.920 And so I don't think liquity is there quite yet, 0:28:13.160 --> 0:28:16.280 Like elections start flirting with that sort of level, and 0:28:16.320 --> 0:28:20.560 we've seen some, but like we don't see that, Like 0:28:20.840 --> 0:28:22.640 it's just a matter of time for liquity to build 0:28:22.720 --> 0:28:26.080 up for the kind of like a deep institutional use 0:28:26.119 --> 0:28:28.560 case to basically start kicking in. And I think I 0:28:28.560 --> 0:28:30.280 see this sort overin the next two three years. Like 0:28:30.280 --> 0:28:31.399 I think that's going to be a very big part 0:28:31.400 --> 0:28:33.000 of CASHU. It's always in part of the division because 0:28:33.040 --> 0:28:36.879 you you create a marketplace where you can price anything. 0:28:37.080 --> 0:28:38.200 You know, what you're doing at that point is you're 0:28:38.200 --> 0:28:40.680 pricing risk. You're pricing any risk sort of happening in 0:28:40.680 --> 0:28:42.560 the wild, and then when you price the risk, it's 0:28:42.640 --> 0:28:44.560 much easier to create the liquidity. The same way it's 0:28:44.600 --> 0:28:47.120 easy to create liquity for the option market today that 0:28:47.120 --> 0:28:49.920 it's much higher for some esoteric event as there's more 0:28:49.920 --> 0:28:52.720 and more price benchmarks than you can provide more liquidity. 0:28:52.760 --> 0:28:54.480 And then after that you can basically red cater to 0:28:54.480 --> 0:28:57.640 the sort of institutional risk transfer use case, which I 0:28:57.640 --> 0:28:59.960 think is kind of where the term really expands long. 0:29:00.680 --> 0:29:03.200 I mean, I assume in addition to talking to regulators, 0:29:03.200 --> 0:29:05.360 a big chunk of your time is spent going out 0:29:05.360 --> 0:29:08.120 and talking to institutional players, either on the market making 0:29:08.200 --> 0:29:12.040 side or maybe buyside, who might one day potentially be 0:29:12.120 --> 0:29:15.040 interested in actually using this as a hedge. What are 0:29:15.080 --> 0:29:19.280 those conversations actually, Like, you know, you have this partnership 0:29:19.360 --> 0:29:23.600 with Suskahanna, Now what are the concerns that they lay 0:29:23.680 --> 0:29:25.480 out when it comes to this new business and what 0:29:25.520 --> 0:29:28.479 are the sort of I don't I guess enticements that 0:29:28.520 --> 0:29:28.960 you offer. 0:29:29.440 --> 0:29:31.440 So I would say, like, right now, it's a lot 0:29:31.480 --> 0:29:32.600 more just like learning. It's not. 0:29:32.640 --> 0:29:34.760 I say, like, hey, our book is much more like 0:29:34.840 --> 0:29:36.920 let's we learn, we learn, and then we figure out 0:29:36.920 --> 0:29:39.120 how to build right product and then people come. It 0:29:39.280 --> 0:29:41.200 usually works that way, not sort of like oh like. 0:29:42.560 --> 0:29:45.640 Did Sufkahana did they approach you then we have. 0:29:46.000 --> 0:29:46.680 It took a while. 0:29:46.720 --> 0:29:49.520 I mean, like we had a reationship like way kind 0:29:49.520 --> 0:29:51.480 of when we're starting like thinking about the company and 0:29:51.520 --> 0:29:52.840 this we have issued with a lot of the sort 0:29:52.840 --> 0:29:55.160 of institutional payers and like marketmakers, and I mean I 0:29:55.200 --> 0:29:58.840 worked at CYDA before, but like I don't know if 0:29:58.920 --> 0:30:00.560 like we I mean, we just had relationship and we 0:30:00.600 --> 0:30:02.520 started talking, and you know they see the vision, Like 0:30:02.520 --> 0:30:04.840 so s Quhanda really believes, I mean, Jeffy has really 0:30:04.840 --> 0:30:06.560 believes in the vision of sort of like this idea 0:30:06.560 --> 0:30:08.960 of like have some skin in the game to forecast 0:30:09.000 --> 0:30:11.479 any question of the future instead of debating about it. 0:30:11.720 --> 0:30:13.920 And he's always off prediction markets. So there's a little 0:30:13.920 --> 0:30:15.720 bit of a natural fit there. But like going back 0:30:15.720 --> 0:30:17.960 to the kind of institutional like what. 0:30:17.840 --> 0:30:18.600 We learned is like. 0:30:20.560 --> 0:30:22.920 It's there right a lot of them, whether they price 0:30:23.000 --> 0:30:26.840 these specific events like NFP specifically or like a CEO 0:30:26.920 --> 0:30:29.600 leaving a company specifically, or or they're worried about it, 0:30:29.640 --> 0:30:31.320 like even if they don't price it specifically, but they're 0:30:31.360 --> 0:30:33.520 sort of like this is something that I'm worried about 0:30:33.880 --> 0:30:35.520 on my thesis, Like I have a thesis, but these 0:30:35.520 --> 0:30:37.240 are some of the external factors that could. 0:30:37.080 --> 0:30:37.880 Like screw it up. 0:30:38.320 --> 0:30:40.320 That's a real thing, and like they would use it 0:30:40.360 --> 0:30:42.720 for hedging. And I think the requirements of like okay, 0:30:42.920 --> 0:30:45.120 some of them that are like solved, like compliance regulatory 0:30:45.160 --> 0:30:47.239 like that, you know you have a clearinghouse regulated all 0:30:47.240 --> 0:30:50.920 the kind of usual stuff. But then there's liquidity like 0:30:50.920 --> 0:30:52.280 how much size can I take for it to be 0:30:52.480 --> 0:30:54.240 worth it for me to kind of allocate a desk 0:30:54.280 --> 0:30:56.760 and you know, put resources into it. And then the 0:30:56.760 --> 0:30:59.000 second one is like margins, which like you know today 0:30:59.080 --> 0:31:01.560 it's fully cash callarer on CALSHI, So if you want 0:31:01.560 --> 0:31:03.160 to trade one hundred dollars you have to put it up. 0:31:03.880 --> 0:31:06.120 That's very difficult for like let's say a citadel. 0:31:06.320 --> 0:31:09.680 Well, I was gonna ask, actually, do you anticipate on 0:31:09.760 --> 0:31:14.080 the road map sort of byside traders when there is 0:31:14.160 --> 0:31:18.480 perhaps if it happens sufficient liquidity, will they be trading 0:31:18.600 --> 0:31:21.120 on CALCI or will it be something they trade through 0:31:21.120 --> 0:31:24.440 their prime broker or their futures broken cabo? But do 0:31:24.480 --> 0:31:26.880 you like are you in talks with the brokers? 0:31:27.000 --> 0:31:29.320 Yeah, it's the same exact sort of like reason means 0:31:29.480 --> 0:31:31.120 like what do you need basically like and how does 0:31:31.160 --> 0:31:34.040 it work. But yes, I mean the prime brokerges are 0:31:34.160 --> 0:31:37.959 very important because like you get you basically get like 0:31:38.240 --> 0:31:40.560 they have the full portfolio, so you can get a 0:31:40.560 --> 0:31:42.720 bunch of margining benefits if you kind of do it 0:31:42.760 --> 0:31:45.240 all with one prime broker. And that's why you usually 0:31:45.280 --> 0:31:48.000 prime brokers are the gateway into financial markets. Yeah, and 0:31:48.120 --> 0:31:50.120 the same way as a broken strategy for retail, right 0:31:50.160 --> 0:31:51.720 like with the robin and Mebo and some of the 0:31:51.760 --> 0:31:54.680 other brokers. It's very similar actually, because you have your 0:31:54.680 --> 0:31:57.200 portfolio with the prime broker and then like as you're 0:31:57.200 --> 0:31:58.840 thinking about your portfolio is like, hey, I could add 0:31:58.840 --> 0:32:00.360 on a hatch. It's much easier for me to do 0:32:00.360 --> 0:32:02.400 it through my prime broker then do it on a 0:32:02.440 --> 0:32:03.320 separate platform. 0:32:03.360 --> 0:32:05.120 But by the way, it's pretty crazy if you go 0:32:05.160 --> 0:32:07.239 to the app store and you just like look at 0:32:07.280 --> 0:32:09.320 robin Hood. It's the first thing is like the football, 0:32:09.400 --> 0:32:11.880 the image of the football right already because yeah, because 0:32:11.880 --> 0:32:14.800 they're trading through you. Anyway, just an interesting. 0:32:14.760 --> 0:32:18.160 I mean, well on that point, I mean there's a 0:32:18.200 --> 0:32:22.040 social utility question here, right, Like if I download robin Hood, okay, yes, 0:32:22.160 --> 0:32:25.080 I could get into zero or one day options and 0:32:25.120 --> 0:32:28.160 we can talk about the social utility there. But maybe 0:32:28.200 --> 0:32:31.360 I'm going to invest in an actual stock that generates 0:32:31.360 --> 0:32:35.320 some income. But now I'm seeing ads for football and 0:32:35.440 --> 0:32:39.680 sports betting, and I don't know. I'm sure there are 0:32:39.760 --> 0:32:42.240 some old fashioned people out there potentially like me, who 0:32:42.240 --> 0:32:46.040 would say, who would say, like, what does this do? 0:32:46.240 --> 0:32:47.000 What's the value? 0:32:47.040 --> 0:32:47.520 Do you think that? 0:32:47.880 --> 0:32:50.680 Do you think that's sports? Like let's even forget about. 0:32:50.440 --> 0:32:52.680 Like I mean, first of all, I don't like sports. 0:32:52.520 --> 0:32:55.440 But well, I mean but like you know, I mean 0:32:55.520 --> 0:32:57.320 a lot of people love love sports, right and and 0:32:57.480 --> 0:33:01.480 like you know, I don't know that like my job 0:33:01.520 --> 0:33:03.640 to view with these things. I mean, I'm a free 0:33:03.640 --> 0:33:07.280 markets person, like you know, building a company where the 0:33:07.360 --> 0:33:09.240 name is you know, we want to have markets for everything. 0:33:09.280 --> 0:33:11.880 So so I'm much more in the camp of, like 0:33:11.960 --> 0:33:14.080 you know, you figure out what people want to do 0:33:14.160 --> 0:33:15.640 and figure out how to do it in a safe, 0:33:15.880 --> 0:33:18.560 equitable and fair manner, like you know, make sure that 0:33:18.600 --> 0:33:20.600 like it's done with fair rules of the role for 0:33:20.600 --> 0:33:23.080 everybody to participate. And they want to get smart and 0:33:23.080 --> 0:33:24.840 do their own research, and if they don't, that's on them, 0:33:24.880 --> 0:33:26.960 and they figure it out and and add some sort 0:33:26.960 --> 0:33:29.760 of text and balances around it to make sure it's 0:33:29.760 --> 0:33:32.479 safe and there's customer protection. But I's tetly like I'm 0:33:32.480 --> 0:33:35.760 a strong believer that, you know, sort of the job 0:33:35.800 --> 0:33:39.320 of regulators should not be dictating what people should do 0:33:39.320 --> 0:33:42.040 with their money or their lives. Like I'm a very 0:33:42.120 --> 0:33:44.680 very strong, like staunch sort of opponent of that sort 0:33:44.680 --> 0:33:46.280 of view of what a regulator should do. 0:33:46.800 --> 0:33:48.320 And I think that fits there. 0:33:48.360 --> 0:33:50.560 I mean in some ways, maybe that's like like if 0:33:50.600 --> 0:33:52.960 you look at romod, like there's all these these choices now, 0:33:53.000 --> 0:33:56.240 and like it's a bit weird to me that, Like 0:33:56.280 --> 0:33:59.080 the decision here is sort of like don't let them 0:33:59.080 --> 0:34:01.160 make the choice, Like if they want to invest in great, 0:34:01.160 --> 0:34:02.960 then if they want to do football, then also great. 0:34:03.000 --> 0:34:05.040 I mean, and the decision. 0:34:04.680 --> 0:34:06.760 That feels weird to me, which is like hide that 0:34:06.800 --> 0:34:10.399 option because the fifty year old or thirty year old man, 0:34:10.560 --> 0:34:13.520 so Robin needs me to figure out what to do 0:34:13.520 --> 0:34:15.680 with their money, right like, and so that to me, 0:34:15.760 --> 0:34:17.319 that's always felt weird to me. And I think that's 0:34:17.320 --> 0:34:20.279 where financial regulation has sort of like gone too far 0:34:20.360 --> 0:34:22.280 in the last I would even call it regulation. 0:34:22.320 --> 0:34:23.400 I'm very pro regulation. 0:34:23.800 --> 0:34:26.840 We chose to be regulated up front, right, So, but 0:34:27.239 --> 0:34:30.000 it's sort of like I would say, like I would say, 0:34:30.520 --> 0:34:32.360 I mean, people are like what law fair but whatever, 0:34:32.680 --> 0:34:33.960 like the financial regulars. 0:34:33.960 --> 0:34:35.760 I think I've taken it too far in that dimension. 0:34:36.040 --> 0:34:38.960 So, as we've mentioned a couple of times, there's this 0:34:39.000 --> 0:34:43.720 big meeting in DC Nextrik, there's gonna be a round table. Incidentally, 0:34:43.960 --> 0:34:47.680 so Tracy mentioned earlier in the day we interviewed Terry 0:34:47.719 --> 0:34:50.520 Duffy for an episode that'll be out in a couple 0:34:50.560 --> 0:34:52.680 of weeks. And I guess you haven't met. He said, 0:34:52.840 --> 0:34:55.440 you've never met, but I guess you're gonna meet on Monday. Bro, Like, 0:34:55.520 --> 0:34:59.960 what should we ask Trek? And he said, I think 0:35:00.120 --> 0:35:03.640 if I'm getting this right, he said that Kelsey characterized 0:35:03.640 --> 0:35:08.719 itsself as CFTC approved, and he says, it's not that 0:35:08.800 --> 0:35:13.799 it's instead not CFTC banned that actually because it's the 0:35:13.840 --> 0:35:18.239 self listing are you CFTC approved and or is it 0:35:18.360 --> 0:35:21.480 just that the CFTC has not said no. 0:35:22.640 --> 0:35:24.560 Well, it's actually incorrect. I mean, I don't know, you know, 0:35:24.600 --> 0:35:27.239 it's like I mean, I'll be Terry Vice meaning Terry 0:35:27.280 --> 0:35:28.040 I mean Terry's. 0:35:27.840 --> 0:35:28.520 Legend, but like. 0:35:30.040 --> 0:35:33.000 We got a license and then a second one. So exhanged, 0:35:33.000 --> 0:35:35.719 and then the clearinghouse and then the broker license. So 0:35:35.760 --> 0:35:37.560 the exchange was like in twenty twenty in the in 0:35:37.560 --> 0:35:39.880 the clearinghouse is twenty twenty four, and then the broker 0:35:39.920 --> 0:35:44.359 one was in twenty twenty five. There's all approvals, I mean, 0:35:44.400 --> 0:35:45.440 it's not like you know. 0:35:45.640 --> 0:35:48.200 But for instance, the individual contracts that go up to 0:35:48.200 --> 0:35:51.280 the CFTC, are those each getting approved. 0:35:50.800 --> 0:35:54.400 Well obviously not actually dissip right like, and we had 0:35:54.440 --> 0:35:57.319 to see over it and it was we were clearly 0:35:57.400 --> 0:35:59.680 right on the log given that we won the district 0:35:59.680 --> 0:36:02.680 and then the in the appeals court. So maybe there's 0:36:02.719 --> 0:36:04.360 a separate dimension here, which is also the regular is 0:36:04.360 --> 0:36:06.200 not always right. But you know, there's a whole other 0:36:06.239 --> 0:36:10.759 thing there. But self certification is a regime which by 0:36:10.760 --> 0:36:13.680 the way, CME is also operated within and they've you know, 0:36:14.080 --> 0:36:17.359 so from from that specific perpecive for each market. Yes, 0:36:17.400 --> 0:36:19.880 it's not that every market goes through a perspectus like 0:36:19.920 --> 0:36:21.360 and the SEC and then gets approved. 0:36:21.920 --> 0:36:24.000 It's actually like a disapproval regime. 0:36:24.120 --> 0:36:26.200 Yeah, But the CFC has authority to stay things and 0:36:26.239 --> 0:36:29.080 it's a very broad authority. Right, So maybe it's a 0:36:29.120 --> 0:36:30.520 good question to see f to see because you know, 0:36:30.560 --> 0:36:31.399 I can't speak on their. 0:36:31.320 --> 0:36:33.400 Behalf, but you can ask them on Monday. 0:36:33.600 --> 0:36:35.720 Yeah, I don't know if they'll be on that table. 0:36:35.760 --> 0:36:38.279 But you know what is the uh, well, we talk 0:36:38.280 --> 0:36:39.000 to safety all the. 0:36:38.920 --> 0:36:43.759 Time, so you know, obviously polymarket is a major competitor 0:36:43.920 --> 0:36:46.080 to you. What do you see as like, what's your 0:36:46.239 --> 0:36:50.120 vision for what is traded on chain and what are 0:36:50.400 --> 0:36:52.120 like could you imagine you know, we just talked to 0:36:52.280 --> 0:36:55.640 Don He said in hit he could see in five 0:36:55.760 --> 0:36:59.880 years almost everything being on chain, Like do you see that? 0:37:00.520 --> 0:37:02.680 Yeah? Maybe? I mean, well it's interesting because Pallly, now 0:37:02.680 --> 0:37:03.160 I was they're doing. 0:37:03.200 --> 0:37:04.960 So there's kind of the on Chaine strategy and then 0:37:04.960 --> 0:37:06.759 the kind of what we did, the regulated you know, 0:37:07.400 --> 0:37:11.040 normal clearinghouse like reggae clearinghouse strategy, and like now they're 0:37:11.080 --> 0:37:13.480 doing this sort of they're pivoting to ours basically. That's 0:37:13.560 --> 0:37:16.200 that's and so our view, jomally is like, well, it's 0:37:16.200 --> 0:37:19.320 a pretty positive signed for our strategy, probably right, because 0:37:19.719 --> 0:37:20.759 you know, but but. 0:37:20.840 --> 0:37:22.640 Even setting a certain top, well, my boy is like 0:37:22.760 --> 0:37:23.440 they're regulated. 0:37:23.600 --> 0:37:27.279 To me, it's a regulated like front. It's more so okay, 0:37:27.320 --> 0:37:29.160 there are a lot of benefits. I really believe that, 0:37:29.200 --> 0:37:33.279 and I think the being on shape, yeah, because like 0:37:34.000 --> 0:37:35.239 one of the ones that I'm less interested in is 0:37:35.360 --> 0:37:38.000 sort of like skirting regulation like that. But but I 0:37:38.000 --> 0:37:39.920 think that like there's a number of things which is 0:37:39.960 --> 0:37:42.399 like my mental model for it is is a bit 0:37:42.520 --> 0:37:44.840 like you know, the banking rails were set up in 0:37:44.840 --> 0:37:46.959 the kind of early twentieth century. It's like JP Morgan 0:37:46.960 --> 0:37:48.040 a bunch of his friends are like, hey, how do 0:37:48.080 --> 0:37:50.359 we dominate this whole thing? And you know, they set 0:37:50.440 --> 0:37:51.960 up a bunch of rags and then they close the 0:37:51.960 --> 0:37:54.200 door behind them, and that was sort of that, and 0:37:54.480 --> 0:37:56.680 there's a much more complexity to that. But to me, 0:37:57.640 --> 0:37:59.560 this sort of whole on chain thing is is it 0:37:59.640 --> 0:38:02.840 imagine a bit like having given that problem to a 0:38:02.840 --> 0:38:08.959 bunch of smart, like like hard working developers without any 0:38:09.000 --> 0:38:12.400 limits and let them build. Right, Obviously, that's gonna be 0:38:12.800 --> 0:38:14.480 there's a lot of good that's gonna come out of that, 0:38:14.520 --> 0:38:16.560 and then there's gonna be some bad that comes out 0:38:16.560 --> 0:38:19.160 of that, obviously, But like to me, it's like, well, 0:38:19.200 --> 0:38:21.160 there's a lot of liquity on chain today, so that's 0:38:21.160 --> 0:38:23.080 something that we should access in at some point. 0:38:23.560 --> 0:38:23.799 Two. 0:38:23.840 --> 0:38:27.520 I think the clearing side there's a lot of benefits 0:38:27.560 --> 0:38:29.600 for you know how, like you have to do no ovation, 0:38:29.880 --> 0:38:33.000 and you have to do immute immutability, and usually right 0:38:33.040 --> 0:38:35.560 now we do it from a like operational legal perspective, 0:38:35.640 --> 0:38:39.000 and obviously there's some tech, but aunchin really helps with that. 0:38:39.000 --> 0:38:40.920 That's like basically what it's designed to do. 0:38:41.480 --> 0:38:43.960 And so over time, like I think, I hope as 0:38:44.000 --> 0:38:46.480 sort of regulators get more permissive, like I see some 0:38:46.560 --> 0:38:49.799 parts of clearing going on chain where you know it 0:38:49.920 --> 0:38:52.440 enables some of these use is, and then also more transplancy, 0:38:52.560 --> 0:38:54.680 like the trades and the transactions are all transplants for 0:38:54.719 --> 0:38:58.040 everybody to see, and then people can build interesting like 0:38:58.200 --> 0:39:00.560 UIs and interesting projects on top of that us having 0:39:00.600 --> 0:39:02.839 to sort of this whole permissionless sort of concept. 0:39:03.040 --> 0:39:04.120 And so I'm very bullish on it. 0:39:04.239 --> 0:39:05.920 I do agree with Don actually that like over the 0:39:05.920 --> 0:39:08.520 next four or five years, you see comedies like Robinhood 0:39:08.560 --> 0:39:10.080 like companies, like a lot of companies are leaning in. 0:39:10.239 --> 0:39:12.200 I think, well, Cawshi is also leaning in. So I'm 0:39:12.200 --> 0:39:13.040 pretty scorry about it. 0:39:13.520 --> 0:39:17.160 So obviously the trajectory of your business has changed enormously 0:39:17.280 --> 0:39:19.920 just over the past year less than a year. Really, 0:39:20.400 --> 0:39:23.440 if you were thinking about it now today as we 0:39:23.480 --> 0:39:27.560 sit here, what's the biggest I guess blockage to further 0:39:27.680 --> 0:39:28.720 growth for Kushi? 0:39:31.600 --> 0:39:33.319 You know, right now it's the question I haven't been 0:39:33.320 --> 0:39:33.879 real thinking about. 0:39:33.880 --> 0:39:35.839 It's been growing so much right now, it's like all 0:39:35.840 --> 0:39:38.719 about how do we like not break basically because like 0:39:38.880 --> 0:39:43.160 I mean honestly, like we grew way more than we 0:39:43.200 --> 0:39:46.440 could have possibly imagined, even in the most bullish scenarios, 0:39:46.480 --> 0:39:49.600 even both post winning the election lawsuit every like, even 0:39:49.680 --> 0:39:52.279 like December twenty twenty four with like foregus for twenty 0:39:52.320 --> 0:39:54.760 twenty five, like, there's nowhere near what it is today. 0:39:54.840 --> 0:39:57.480 So and it's interesting because we're not. 0:39:58.560 --> 0:40:01.239 It feels like we're sort of like halfway through, like 0:40:01.280 --> 0:40:04.640 there's still just the current structure. I think we're not 0:40:04.680 --> 0:40:06.560 even halfway through. Like we have more brokers. We have 0:40:06.680 --> 0:40:09.080 very deep pipe on a broker, so that's great. And 0:40:09.160 --> 0:40:12.000 more sports. I think it's the frontier is the sec thing. 0:40:12.560 --> 0:40:15.080 So I think it's like more markets, like and I 0:40:15.080 --> 0:40:16.920 think we have a lot of what we want. I 0:40:16.920 --> 0:40:18.759 think over time is like how do we start doing 0:40:18.800 --> 0:40:20.240 company with dated prediction markets? 0:40:20.280 --> 0:40:21.319 And we're very excited about that. 0:40:21.520 --> 0:40:23.799 I just have one last question, and it's kind of 0:40:23.800 --> 0:40:28.239 a softball. But like after years of fighting all these 0:40:28.239 --> 0:40:32.160 different battles, regulatory battles, should states, et cetera. Like how 0:40:32.200 --> 0:40:34.560 good does it feel? It must feel really good to 0:40:34.760 --> 0:40:39.080 actually kind of know that the business is real and 0:40:39.239 --> 0:40:42.000 have these battles. Yeah, I mean, just like describe that feeling. 0:40:42.200 --> 0:40:43.920 It's weird because I don't know if I feel that 0:40:43.920 --> 0:40:46.040 it's about this year than last year. I mean, Juan 0:40:46.000 --> 0:40:47.719 and I whly started the company. We really build a 0:40:47.760 --> 0:40:49.720 company around. I love this book. So have you ever 0:40:49.760 --> 0:40:51.560 read the book? Like the score takes care of itself. 0:40:53.080 --> 0:40:56.280 I don't think it's a great book, but life like everything, honestly, 0:40:56.320 --> 0:40:59.480 Like I really it's just you know, like so John 0:40:59.520 --> 0:41:02.440 Woden was of basketball coaches, like most legendary about I mean, 0:41:02.480 --> 0:41:04.800 the whole thing was always about like never mentioned winning, 0:41:05.320 --> 0:41:07.160 but training the teams like folks in the process and 0:41:07.200 --> 0:41:09.480 like day in day out, like just fall in love 0:41:09.520 --> 0:41:11.680 with the training and like if you do, you just 0:41:11.719 --> 0:41:12.320 start winning. 0:41:12.880 --> 0:41:14.440 And like I I would say a few things. 0:41:14.480 --> 0:41:16.839 I see, these things are sort of there's good times 0:41:16.840 --> 0:41:19.040 in bad times for all companies, and so yes, right 0:41:19.080 --> 0:41:21.040 now we're having a pretty great time like as good 0:41:21.040 --> 0:41:24.879 as it gets for a company, But I don't feel 0:41:24.960 --> 0:41:27.600 that different. I think it's just like solutions bring new problems, 0:41:27.600 --> 0:41:29.320 and like then you focus on the new problems. 0:41:29.360 --> 0:41:30.239 It would be so much. 0:41:30.520 --> 0:41:32.319 The one person I will say, the one part I 0:41:32.320 --> 0:41:34.640 feel pretty good about is winning the election lawsuit, like 0:41:34.680 --> 0:41:39.160 that one because we were so there was some pretty 0:41:39.200 --> 0:41:43.440 big time vindication there. Like I think we were, you know, 0:41:43.440 --> 0:41:46.640 because imagine like in twenty twenty, like three going off 0:41:46.640 --> 0:41:48.520 to our board, you know, like Seicoya and munch of 0:41:48.520 --> 0:41:51.040 others and like, hey, like, yeah, we're not really figuring 0:41:51.040 --> 0:41:52.560 this out. It's been two years of like you know, 0:41:52.600 --> 0:41:54.840 pouring money into this and like we're you know, and 0:41:54.880 --> 0:41:56.759 nothing is working. We lost half of our team over 0:41:56.840 --> 0:41:59.759 it and like company might die, and actually what we're 0:41:59.760 --> 0:42:01.160 going to it was a good triple down and sew 0:42:01.160 --> 0:42:03.960 our regulator now, so you know that was they looked 0:42:03.960 --> 0:42:06.120 at us and they're like, well that that that doesn't 0:42:06.120 --> 0:42:08.399 feel right, you know, like and we still went through 0:42:08.400 --> 0:42:10.040 with it and like it ended up being absolutely the 0:42:10.080 --> 0:42:14.360 right decision. So that I think maybe like October seventh, 0:42:14.920 --> 0:42:16.680 the day we won the election lawsuit, was probably the 0:42:16.760 --> 0:42:17.839 day I felt happiest. 0:42:18.200 --> 0:42:20.680 What did you do when drop the lawsuit? 0:42:21.520 --> 0:42:23.480 That was not that important. It was the one where 0:42:23.480 --> 0:42:24.080 we the appeals. 0:42:26.160 --> 0:42:29.400 Yeah, that was important because well I first screamed a 0:42:29.400 --> 0:42:31.480 lot and like we just like you know, all got 0:42:31.560 --> 0:42:34.000 hit faced in the office and like you know, you know, 0:42:34.040 --> 0:42:34.760 it was amazing. 0:42:34.800 --> 0:42:35.799 But then you know, then. 0:42:35.719 --> 0:42:38.080 We got back to work because were anxious about set, 0:42:38.160 --> 0:42:40.880 like you know, launching the thing. Yeah, that was a 0:42:40.880 --> 0:42:43.880 brutal three weeks because we had to ramp up really aggressively, 0:42:43.920 --> 0:42:45.799 and I mean we really went from we really grew 0:42:45.800 --> 0:42:48.440 one hundred x overnight, Like it was crazy. And so 0:42:49.880 --> 0:42:51.560 that was the three weeks away. I worked the hardest 0:42:51.560 --> 0:42:53.600 in my entire life. I was sleeping in the office, 0:42:53.640 --> 0:42:56.080 Like you know, I was like I was given this chance, 0:42:56.120 --> 0:42:58.360 like we have to basically like you know, utilize it 0:42:58.360 --> 0:43:00.000 to the fullest. And it was and we didn't charge 0:43:00.040 --> 0:43:02.239 He's on the election market. I know, if you knew that, 0:43:02.600 --> 0:43:05.120 it was an intentional decision because like the KPI here 0:43:05.160 --> 0:43:07.480 is we've got to show the word that these markets work. Yeah, 0:43:07.520 --> 0:43:09.360 and it's done safely and nothing that is going to 0:43:09.400 --> 0:43:11.480 happen and democracy is going to be totally fine. And 0:43:11.520 --> 0:43:13.560 actually and you'll see we're announcing a few things with 0:43:13.640 --> 0:43:16.080 some some big news organizations pretty soon. What we'll see 0:43:16.080 --> 0:43:19.200 the shift that's happened in culture where like the level 0:43:19.200 --> 0:43:22.040 of embracing that's happening with prediction markets now, it's that's 0:43:22.080 --> 0:43:22.719 that's pretty. 0:43:22.520 --> 0:43:22.960 Nice to see. 0:43:23.680 --> 0:43:26.040 Plus south Park and south Park. 0:43:26.280 --> 0:43:28.520 Yeah, Trek Mansur, thank you than so much. 0:43:28.600 --> 0:43:32.480 Thanks having thanks lot, Thanks so much. Guys. 0:43:32.560 --> 0:43:36.000 That was our conversation with Turik Monsour, recorded live on 0:43:36.200 --> 0:43:37.320 stage in Chicago. 0:43:37.640 --> 0:43:40.839 I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway and. 0:43:40.760 --> 0:43:43.480 I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Star Wart. 0:43:43.880 --> 0:43:47.000 Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carman armand dash O 0:43:47.040 --> 0:43:49.960 Bennett at Dashboard in Keil Brooks at Keil Brooks. 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