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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough?

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Speaker 2: No, we're running again, so smoothe so sweet Standard sixteen

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Speaker 2: just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty

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Speaker 2: percent effort four thousand percent of the time. How shot

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Speaker 2: with that shop with mind? Good buddy, and that's why

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Speaker 2: you see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements the

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Speaker 2: most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: The love is left to Wanda, wide eyed, drilled bibus

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Speaker 2: how old Earth? Pick that happens?

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Speaker 3: Helluri one and welcome back to Wonderful, the Soccer Betting

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Speaker 3: podcast from the Action Network. My name's by Galiba and

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Speaker 3: enjoining me for this episod, so is Anthony Dbundo. Bjay

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Speaker 3: is in Las Vegas visiting his family, so we gave

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Speaker 3: him the weekend off, but he did give us his underdog,

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Speaker 3: and that underdog parlay we're going to give out at

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Speaker 3: the end of the shows a wopper one hundred and

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Speaker 3: seventy nine to one, So be sure to stay tuned

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Speaker 3: as we try to make amends for not having one

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Speaker 3: for the midweek. But before we go through, before we

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Speaker 3: get to that and go through all ten Premier League matches,

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Speaker 3: talk about the Bundesliga and Syria a little bit a Ryan,

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Speaker 3: a reminder that Wonder Goal is proudly presented by Bet

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Speaker 3: three sixty five, North Carolina's newest sportsbook, and Bet three

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Speaker 3: boosts and see why it's never ordinary. At Bet three

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Speaker 3: six five. You must be twenty one or older and

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Speaker 3: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,

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Speaker 3: or eighteen and older in Kentucky to play. And if

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Speaker 3: you or anyone you know has a gambling problem wants help,

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Speaker 3: please call one eight hundred Gambler or one eight hundred

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Speaker 3: bets off in Iowa. TC's and restrictions apply. All right, Anthony,

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Speaker 3: we are recording this on Wednesday. Arsenal and Manchester City

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Speaker 3: have held serve in their games as big favorites. Liverpool

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Speaker 3: is playing on Thursday against Sheffield United. We're going to

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Speaker 3: operate under the assumption that Liverpool wins. Sheffield United scores first,

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Speaker 3: of course to cash our bets that we gave out

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Speaker 3: last week, but Liverpool ends up winning, so we'll try

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Speaker 3: to do our best like operating under that assumption. It

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Speaker 3: doesn't really change all that much, but we'll start with

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Speaker 3: the three title three matches with title race implications, and

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Speaker 3: we'll start with that liverpoo match coming your way at

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Speaker 3: Manchester United at the Theater of Dreams, Old Trafford, where

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Speaker 3: United is a plus three fifty home dog Liverpool minus

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Speaker 3: one fifty.

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Speaker 1: The draw is three to one.

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Speaker 3: The first thing I want to ask you is have

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Speaker 3: these two teams played eleven times this season?

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Speaker 1: It feels that way, right, so it's only the third, but.

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Speaker 3: It does how many times it feels like they played

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Speaker 3: as well.

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Speaker 2: One was just you know, two weeks ago, so it's

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Speaker 2: kind of expression our minds. And we do have a

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Speaker 2: pretty good example of like, oh, what was the market

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Speaker 2: for that match? Liverpool closed minus one fifteen now they're

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Speaker 2: all the way up at minus one fifty. There's no

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Speaker 2: meaningful difference in either team since then. You know, Connor

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Speaker 2: Bradley may start over Joe Gomez. But I went through

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Speaker 2: the lineups and it was Diaz, nunyaz Sala, it was McAllister,

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Speaker 2: Endo and Sula bush Lye, it was Kwansa with Van Dyke,

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Speaker 2: it was Caliher and Goal and then for United it

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Speaker 2: was you know, largely the same lineup. Now. You know

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Speaker 2: march and As picks up.

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Speaker 1: An injury.

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Speaker 2: In a cameo against Brentford, but he hadn't been playing anyway,

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Speaker 2: and ten Hawk did say, now we haven't obviously we

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Speaker 2: haven't seen them play Chelsea yet either, but Tenhawk did

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Speaker 2: say that Lindeloff maybe out, but varn and Jones and

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Speaker 2: Maguire are fit right now, so they they're not at

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Speaker 2: a total loss at center back with the injury to

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Speaker 2: Martinez and the injury to Linda Off, so they have

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Speaker 2: you know, two at least, you're gonna have probably two

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Speaker 2: capable center backs. And you know Luke Shaw's been down

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Speaker 2: a while now, so you know, what is the difference

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Speaker 2: between that match and two weeks ago at the Theater

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Speaker 2: of dreams, because you know, I know that the narrative

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Speaker 2: post match was that Liverpool let it slip because United

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Speaker 2: scored late on and then scored late on in extra

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Speaker 2: time to win it. But on the flow of chances,

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Speaker 2: I didn't think Liverpool defended well at all. So you know,

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Speaker 2: the total expected goals in the match United was close

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Speaker 2: to four if you just take out extra time, United

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Speaker 2: was close to three twenty eight shots to twenty five.

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Speaker 2: Do I think United can stop Liverpool? No, But the

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Speaker 2: biggest weakness that I think Liverpool has shown defensively in

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Speaker 2: the last few weeks has been on their right side,

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Speaker 2: and so it is a little concerning to see United

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Speaker 2: have so much success there, Brighton have so much success

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Speaker 2: there attacking that same spot, and now it's like, oh yeah,

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Speaker 2: Marcus Rashford very capable, going to play again, How does

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Speaker 2: he match up with his Liverpool defense. I think there's

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Speaker 2: pass success. So I like the over three and a

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Speaker 2: half even money is good And I'm going to talk

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Speaker 2: to this match a little bit later. If it gets

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Speaker 2: to a flat plus one, I like United plus one

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Speaker 2: as well. It's getting close to it now and it's

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Speaker 2: crazy to say that I'm going to advocate to bet

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Speaker 2: for men United. I get it. They just look embarrassingly

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Speaker 2: bad at Brentford and I don't think their defense is

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Speaker 2: gonna look great against Chelsea. But come Sunday back home,

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Speaker 2: it's still a dangerous team on the break. I mean, Garnacho,

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Speaker 2: Fernandez and Rashford all put up four plus shots in

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Speaker 2: that game against Liverpool. They were not really stopped mccomany

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Speaker 2: free runs into the penalty area the whole match.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually am in agreement with you here as well.

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Speaker 3: I think United makes a good bet on the money line.

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Speaker 3: I think that this game has a really wide range

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Speaker 3: of outcomes, which is going to be the opposite of

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Speaker 3: the game we'll talk about next, because I think that

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Speaker 3: either team can come back, either team can blow a

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Speaker 3: lead here. I think you could see an early goal

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Speaker 3: flip this game. I think that the way United will

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Speaker 3: approach it to is going to be really interesting. They

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Speaker 3: want desperately, of course, to not let Liverpool win the title.

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Speaker 3: That would be two trophies that they've basically taken out

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Speaker 3: of their pocket. It should be a really raucous atmosphere

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Speaker 3: no matter what happens with United and Chelsea. I don't

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Speaker 3: think that any Man United fan would be mad if

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Speaker 3: ten Hog literally sat everybody against Chelsea and on Thursday

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Speaker 3: and just kept everyone fresh for this one. Yeah, so

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Speaker 3: borring any unforeseen injuries, et cetera, and that Chelsea match

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Speaker 3: on Thursday.

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Speaker 1: I agree with you. I think that the market's moving

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Speaker 1: a little bit too much here.

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Speaker 3: And we'll see what happens with Liverpool too, Like I mean,

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Speaker 3: if they ship five past Sheffield United and United it

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Speaker 3: struggles with Chelsea, we could see this.

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Speaker 1: Line movie even more. So, just keep your eye on

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Speaker 1: on that too.

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Speaker 2: I haven't bet anything as of now, but again, like

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Speaker 2: I project three point sixty six goals, so at three

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Speaker 2: and a half, like, it is a little short if

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Speaker 2: you're at even money. And I think you know the

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Speaker 2: other thing, Liverpool is probably at the top of the

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Speaker 2: market right now, right this is where you know everybody's

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Speaker 2: doing this title thing. They're not now a clear favorite

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Speaker 2: to win the title. Will they drop points?

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Speaker 1: This is their.

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Speaker 2: Toughest match left as far as I'm concerned, market wise. Uh,

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Speaker 2: you know they are still going to host Tottenham, go

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Speaker 2: to Villa. We'll see what Villa looks like healthwise then,

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Speaker 2: but this for me is their toughest match left.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, it's like it's more tricky than tough, right,

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Speaker 3: does that make sense to you?

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Speaker 1: Like it's it's it's it's.

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Speaker 2: A rivalry, Like they'll go to Everton too. We would

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Speaker 2: never say that toughest matchup.

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Speaker 1: But you know if this one just feels like it's

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Speaker 1: it's pretty tricky. Okay.

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Speaker 3: Uh So, like I said that, that game I think

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Speaker 3: can have a go in a million different directions.

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Speaker 2: And United likes playing the style that Liverpool introduces to play. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 2: that's the only thing they can do.

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Speaker 1: Really.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's Liverpool could could score like you said, they

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Speaker 2: could score three or four and run away with this.

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Speaker 2: But I think you guy's worth a shot. Uh.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 3: Palace and City I think will look very very different.

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Speaker 3: So Liverpool and United is on Sunday. This Palace City

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Speaker 3: game will get the We can start at seven thirty

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Speaker 3: a m. Eastern time on Saturday. Palace is seven to

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Speaker 3: one at sellhr's part City traveling as a minus two

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Speaker 3: seventy five favorite, and then the draws plus three seventy

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Speaker 3: five here City with I thought of really composed impressive

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Speaker 3: showing Obviously, Phil Foten had a hat trick. I don't

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Speaker 3: need to get into him being amazing. I actually like

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Speaker 3: a couple different ways to bet this. They they're very

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Speaker 3: heavily correlated the under at two and a half plus

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Speaker 3: one twenty, and I also think City as an exact

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Speaker 3: score line City one nil at plus seven fifty. A

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Speaker 3: couple of reasons here. One it's we're getting back into

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Speaker 3: like fixtures piling up for City Champions League looming all

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Speaker 3: that too, Like this is the type of game where yeah,

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Speaker 3: the goal difference will matter, but I don't think City

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Speaker 3: will feel all that comfortable in this environment compared to

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Speaker 3: what they were even against Aston Villa, who's a much

185
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Speaker 3: better team than Crystal Palace. But Pallas is so tough,

186
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Speaker 3: will be so tough to break down, and they'll be

187
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Speaker 3: at home in front of a crazy crowd, and I

188
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Speaker 3: think getting out of Sellhurst Park in one piece with

189
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Speaker 3: three points is call. It's going to matter to Pep

190
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Speaker 3: and we've kind of seen him manage already, like the

191
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Speaker 3: Arsenal game, not to not to make the big mistake

192
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Speaker 3: to squander their title hopes, and I think we could

193
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Speaker 3: see a similar approach here. Of course, the caveat being

194
00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:25,200
Speaker 3: they need to get the goal, But I just I

195
00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:28,360
Speaker 3: think that this thing could be really really ugly, like

196
00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:30,680
Speaker 3: one of those classic City matches where you turn it

197
00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:32,080
Speaker 3: on you watch it for fifteen minutes.

198
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Speaker 1: He was like, this is really a tough watch as

199
00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:36,320
Speaker 1: a neutral.

200
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Speaker 3: So Palace has been pretty non existent since Glasner took over,

201
00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:45,200
Speaker 3: not generating all that much, And yeah, I don't. I

202
00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:46,880
Speaker 3: don't think that they're going to be the ones pushing

203
00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:48,319
Speaker 3: the pace here, and I don't really think City is

204
00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:50,440
Speaker 3: going to want to do it either. Pretty low event

205
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Speaker 3: games is what I'm what I'm thinking here. Am I

206
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Speaker 3: on the right track?

207
00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:57,319
Speaker 2: I think? So? Yeah? I mean I have City at

208
00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:01,120
Speaker 2: minus one point two three, just pure numbers, but like

209
00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:04,360
Speaker 2: who's gonna play? You know, they sit Holland and de Bryna. Today,

210
00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:06,960
Speaker 2: they play Foden, he gets a hat trick. They have

211
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Speaker 2: Real Madrid coming up on Tuesday, so now do they

212
00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:11,600
Speaker 2: rest Fhoden and play Holland and De Bruyne. Like, I

213
00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:14,560
Speaker 2: think there's like a world where City again kind of

214
00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:17,200
Speaker 2: just rotates through so that everybody gets a game, but

215
00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:20,400
Speaker 2: not too many games because they know and Pepa is

216
00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:23,319
Speaker 2: even complaining to the media about it, like, hey, look

217
00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:25,480
Speaker 2: at all these games we're playing Real Madrid gets nine

218
00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:28,320
Speaker 2: days off. We have to play three matches and if

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Speaker 2: you had to pick out of this run like okay,

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Speaker 2: you host Arsenal, host Villa hosting Real Madrid or they

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Speaker 2: go to Real Madrid. The one match in the middle

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Speaker 2: that kind of sticks out is like, oh yeah, we'll

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Speaker 2: also have a tricky away day to Sellhurst. Palace team

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Speaker 2: since Glaisner took over, you talked about it, they haven't

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Speaker 2: created much. The two games they did Burnley at home

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Speaker 2: when they got a red card, Burnley got a red

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Speaker 2: Luton at home, which like okay, yeah, Luton, and then

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Speaker 2: their opponents. They've played six matches under Glasmer. They played Everton, Burnley, Forrest, Bournemouth,

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Speaker 2: Luton and Spurs and the Spurs match they were pretty

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Speaker 2: well beaten in the second and half. So it has

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Speaker 2: not been an exactly a murderer's row of opponents that

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Speaker 2: Palace has played since Glasma took over, and the numbers

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Speaker 2: haven't really looked at encouraging. They could get a Lise back,

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Speaker 2: which you know we've talked about Esley and Elisa being

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Speaker 2: dangerous and honestly like City will have nightmares if they

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Speaker 2: don't win this title. There's always one result that you

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Speaker 2: point to and you say, how did that happen? City

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Speaker 2: was up to Nilo on Palace. Esle and e Lise

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Speaker 2: came on in the second half and like the last

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Speaker 2: fifteen minutes, they had a bad giveaway, gave away a

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Speaker 2: pen and then City tied to two, dropped two points

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Speaker 2: right around the Christmas period. Those will be the two

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Speaker 2: points for me that will always stick out this year

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Speaker 2: for them if they end up not winning this title,

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Speaker 2: because that was the match, So do they Does that

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Speaker 2: make them more focused? I don't know, but yeah, I agree.

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Speaker 2: I think that like City has had defensive issues at

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Speaker 2: times away from home, but Pallas offers so little threat

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Speaker 2: that if you like Palace, I mean, you might as

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Speaker 2: well parlay with the under or somehow figure out a

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Speaker 2: way to come up with under, you know, under game states,

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Speaker 2: because it's very hard to see them scoring multiple times

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Speaker 2: to stay in this. So I haven't bet anything here.

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Speaker 2: I leaned to the under with you. I thought we

255
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Speaker 2: were gonna get a three, and I was gonna hammer

256
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Speaker 2: the under a two and a half plus money. It's

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Speaker 2: a little bit closer to to about right for me.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that that City the draw earlier this season,

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Speaker 3: Like Cities had issues with this Palace team in the past,

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Speaker 3: Like even was it last season where they they beat

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Speaker 3: them in like that game where they went behind. I

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Speaker 3: think it was like an Edison giveaway and then City

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Speaker 3: had to like come back late and then of course

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Speaker 3: they lost to them a couple of seasons ago as well.

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Speaker 2: Last year was the two nil inside ten minutes and

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Speaker 2: then they won.

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Speaker 1: Four to two, and right, that's what it was.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So like they've just had issues with this team,

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Speaker 3: so I think it's like a get ahead, shutdown shop

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Speaker 3: kind of situation.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they're not bad defensively, but again, like they haven't

272
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Speaker 2: played a lot of matches without Gayhee against real teams, right,

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Speaker 2: that is still a concern. But I think that, you know,

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Speaker 2: it's still the same spine of the team, even if

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Speaker 2: they're managers different and maybe the personnel is a little different.

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Speaker 3: Now that brings us to the other team involved in

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Speaker 3: the title race. Arsenal's Traveling is a minus one sixty

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Speaker 3: three road favorite to Brighton, who are plus four to

279
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Speaker 3: twenty five. The draw here is plus two eighty. I

280
00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:23,280
Speaker 3: want to bet Brighton here. I do think like you're

281
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Speaker 3: talking about the market where at like the high water

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Speaker 3: mark for Liverpool, I think we're starting to get there

283
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Speaker 3: for Arsenal as well. I just don't think that people

284
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Speaker 3: view Arsenal as the type of team that is just

285
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Speaker 3: going to drop points to inferior opposition. They've obviously dominated

286
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Speaker 3: a bunch of teams at the lower end of the

287
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Speaker 3: table and some like in that mid to low lower

288
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Speaker 3: blob that you like to talk about as well. But

289
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Speaker 3: this Brighton team, for all their warts this season, and

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Speaker 3: it's been poor of late. Right, They've got one win

291
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Speaker 3: in their last four. They're not generating a lot. I

292
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Speaker 3: think they're under four expected goals those last four matches,

293
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Speaker 3: like under three and a half expectacles and only two

294
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Speaker 3: goals scored. So it's it looks tough and you don't

295
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Speaker 3: want to bring that type of offense to the game

296
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Speaker 3: with Arsenal. But I think this just looks like a

297
00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:15,920
Speaker 3: decent opportunity to buy low on Brighton. So in all

298
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Speaker 3: likelihood I'm going to be on the Brighton money line.

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Speaker 1: I just don't It's not my favorite of the big dogs,

300
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Speaker 1: which we'll get to later.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So we have seen Arsenal put up some really

302
00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:32,640
Speaker 2: impressive results going forward this twenty twenty four, so since

303
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Speaker 2: the calendar flip, basically right, you know, they scored five

304
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Speaker 2: on Palace at home. They put six on west Ham

305
00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:43,080
Speaker 2: and five on Burnley and six on Sheffield and four

306
00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:48,440
Speaker 2: on Newcastle. All of these teams are bottom five Premier

307
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Speaker 2: League defenses bottom six. Not one of those teams for me,

308
00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:54,320
Speaker 2: you know, you maybe you could argue Palace, but none

309
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Speaker 2: of them are impressive defensive teams for me. And so yes,

310
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Speaker 2: you credit Arsenal for being in great form and and

311
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Speaker 2: really the biggest difference was that Mikayo Saka's production took

312
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Speaker 2: a step forward. He was really improved in those couple months.

313
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Speaker 2: But now Socca's not fully fit. He didn't play at

314
00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:17,120
Speaker 2: all in this match today against Luton. Martinelli is just

315
00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:19,120
Speaker 2: coming back from an injury that he didn't start either

316
00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:22,600
Speaker 2: match either. Jayesus has been kind of relegated to this

317
00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,720
Speaker 2: weird bench role and it's pretty much just odi guard

318
00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:28,520
Speaker 2: that pulls the strings for this Arsenal attack right now.

319
00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:32,440
Speaker 2: Havert's had a nice assist today, you know, but it's

320
00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:36,000
Speaker 2: not the fully functioning Arsenal attack. And I think their

321
00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:38,480
Speaker 2: attack is overvalued. And look, I sound like a broken record.

322
00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:40,320
Speaker 2: I believe in this defense. I think this defense is

323
00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:43,760
Speaker 2: the best in Europe. They give up nothing to anyone

324
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Speaker 2: at any time. They just held City under one XG.

325
00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:48,680
Speaker 2: They held Luton to three total shots or four total

326
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Speaker 2: shots today, nothing for them, a Lowton team that by

327
00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:54,280
Speaker 2: the way, had scored eighteen straight matches. So it wasn't

328
00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:58,080
Speaker 2: like you know, you say Luton above average attack since

329
00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:02,080
Speaker 2: you know most of the Sea. So I believe in

330
00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:05,280
Speaker 2: their defense. Rice will start, I imagine after he got

331
00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:10,280
Speaker 2: only played twenty minutes today, so full arsenal strength defense

332
00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:13,600
Speaker 2: going up against a Brighton defense that I think is underrated.

333
00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:15,840
Speaker 2: And then the market is kind of underrated this defense

334
00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:18,680
Speaker 2: for a while now because Brighton in their last eight

335
00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:21,760
Speaker 2: matches against English teams all competitions six to one and

336
00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:24,399
Speaker 2: one to the under Yes, a lot of that has

337
00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:26,520
Speaker 2: to do with Brighton's attack also falling off, which I'm

338
00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:29,879
Speaker 2: going to get into. But even today at Brentford, a

339
00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,000
Speaker 2: Brentford team that we know is dangerous in transition, that

340
00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:36,720
Speaker 2: we think is you know, fully healthy in attack, well

341
00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:42,639
Speaker 2: they had just five total shots in point five XG. Like,

342
00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:45,920
Speaker 2: Brighton's defense was awesome today and they've been playing belat

343
00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:49,400
Speaker 2: them more in the midfield. They've been making tactical choices

344
00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:52,840
Speaker 2: to have more true midfielders on the pitch and not

345
00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:57,120
Speaker 2: just Turnstiles, and the attack is struggling. I mean, Pedro

346
00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:00,320
Speaker 2: is back today, but his numbers are in fl They

347
00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:03,960
Speaker 2: don't have a single player averaging over point four non

348
00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:07,159
Speaker 2: penalty XG per ninety in their team. It's been just

349
00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:09,399
Speaker 2: kind of like, oh, we lost Matoma, we lost March,

350
00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:12,960
Speaker 2: we didn't have Pedro for a while. Ferguson didn't really

351
00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,879
Speaker 2: take off, like this whole attack is. There's been so

352
00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:19,160
Speaker 2: much rotation that I don't really trust them and Arsenal

353
00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:21,760
Speaker 2: I don't really trust their attack right now, given their

354
00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:24,159
Speaker 2: injuries and not everybody being quite right. And I think again,

355
00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:27,199
Speaker 2: like they ran up the score on some awful defenses

356
00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:30,560
Speaker 2: and Brighton is an above average defense. So under three

357
00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:34,520
Speaker 2: again for me fading the goals totals, I think they're

358
00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:36,280
Speaker 2: just inflated and I'm gonna bet the under three at

359
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:37,200
Speaker 2: even money again.

360
00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:41,240
Speaker 3: Okay, So that wraps up the title race portion of

361
00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:44,280
Speaker 3: the show. We you know, I'm looking at the under

362
00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:47,320
Speaker 3: at City and Palace. You were leading that way. We

363
00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:50,040
Speaker 3: both like United in one way or another, and you

364
00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:52,840
Speaker 3: like the under excuse me the over in that one,

365
00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:55,040
Speaker 3: and then the under in Arsenal Brighton.

366
00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:57,520
Speaker 1: I'll probably beyond the seagulls. Okay.

367
00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:01,520
Speaker 3: That brings us to Villa and Brentford. Villa laying minus

368
00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:03,840
Speaker 3: one fifty four at home the Bees four to one,

369
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:05,840
Speaker 3: and the draw here is plus two eighty. I like

370
00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:10,320
Speaker 3: Brentford here, doesn't need too much convincing for me to

371
00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:14,280
Speaker 3: bet this team, despite the problems they've had all year,

372
00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,399
Speaker 3: but they are going up against the Villa team that

373
00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:21,879
Speaker 3: has its form is just all over the place, especially defensively,

374
00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:26,880
Speaker 3: eleven point six expected goals against by Understatt in their

375
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:31,800
Speaker 3: last five matches. They've shipped eleven goals in that in

376
00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:35,440
Speaker 3: that span. They've also just been playing this high event

377
00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:38,800
Speaker 3: style for so long. And I think even you know,

378
00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:41,119
Speaker 3: at home, I guess a Brentford team that's going to

379
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,360
Speaker 3: be desperate for points in any way, and a Brentford

380
00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:47,040
Speaker 3: team by the way that it's still playing better than

381
00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:50,440
Speaker 3: its results would show. I think that you're getting a

382
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:53,920
Speaker 3: decent number here on the Bees who are desperate, desperate,

383
00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:58,000
Speaker 3: desperate for a win. They I should say, they've looked

384
00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:01,199
Speaker 3: really good in that United game, right, we think that

385
00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:06,640
Speaker 3: ends up being one of the.

386
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:05,800
Speaker 1: Unluckier draws on the year.

387
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:08,160
Speaker 3: Then they get another drug against a Neil Nili against

388
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:12,280
Speaker 3: Brighton on the midweek, which I thought was fine. They

389
00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:16,400
Speaker 3: didn't really create much, but I think against the Villa

390
00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:21,320
Speaker 3: defense it's just been shipping chances for fun. We could

391
00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:23,440
Speaker 3: see this Brentford attack come to life and we trust

392
00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:24,520
Speaker 3: their defense, so.

393
00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:26,560
Speaker 1: The Bees.

394
00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, if you want to back Brentford. The thing

395
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:33,119
Speaker 2: they do really well that Villa does poorly is set pieces.

396
00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:36,600
Speaker 2: So Brentford top five set piece offense, Villa the worst

397
00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:40,400
Speaker 2: set piece defense by XG allowed. I know Forrest still

398
00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:44,240
Speaker 2: has that title four goals, but XG per set piece allowed.

399
00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:46,959
Speaker 2: Villa has been really poor. The thing is they are

400
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:48,879
Speaker 2: getting a little healthier, so you know, we don't know

401
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:52,480
Speaker 2: exactly the status the team. They rolled out today, no Watkins,

402
00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:58,000
Speaker 2: no any Martinez, no McGinn, no Kamara, no Bailey. Like

403
00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:01,440
Speaker 2: it was rough and they looked real, but they probably

404
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:05,240
Speaker 2: get Watkins back. Based on Emery's comments, they seemed like

405
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:06,920
Speaker 2: they held him out today because they were at City

406
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:11,320
Speaker 2: and they didn't want to push him. Martinez was sick,

407
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 2: so I'd imagine he's back by Saturday. McGinn's back from suspension,

408
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:19,560
Speaker 2: so they are getting some guys back. I'm not totally

409
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:21,280
Speaker 2: sold on their defense though, and so if this does

410
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,280
Speaker 2: get to plus one at like minus one fifteen, I'm

411
00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 2: going to take Brentford. I think it's funny to compare

412
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:29,960
Speaker 2: Brentford what Brentford did an attack against United, which was

413
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:35,440
Speaker 2: three x G you know, eighty nine hundred box touches

414
00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:39,480
Speaker 2: against Brighton who Brighton completely controlled the match. And yes,

415
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:41,399
Speaker 2: Brighton doesn't have the same quality of attackers out there

416
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:45,240
Speaker 2: as many United does. Brighton had twenty four shots for

417
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:47,440
Speaker 2: like one point one next g there was nothing in

418
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:50,919
Speaker 2: the six yard like they couldn't create a big chance. Again,

419
00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:55,879
Speaker 2: brought up Brighton's problem right now. But Brentford, you know,

420
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,359
Speaker 2: being able to play both both different styles gives me

421
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 2: some encouragement. I mean their numbers have fallen though, so

422
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:05,119
Speaker 2: since since New Year they're minus point five per ninety

423
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:10,880
Speaker 2: extra difference, so that's closer to like fourteenth fifteenth than

424
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 2: the usual. Hey, this is like above average team team,

425
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 2: so they have fallen, but now they haven't when Wesa

426
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:22,280
Speaker 2: and Tony all available and going so against this defense,

427
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 2: this Villa defense that leaves so much space in behind,

428
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 2: it does feel like Brentford's always going to be in

429
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 2: it with that in the set pieces, so I certainly

430
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,119
Speaker 2: don't disagree with going with Brentford here. Villa continue to

431
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 2: kind of just be eh overall.

432
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 3: Speaking of which, this this next match is perfect segue

433
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:47,159
Speaker 3: because Eh, I think describes everything pretty well. Still have

434
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:49,919
Speaker 3: it once since December sixteenth, but they keep, you know,

435
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:53,199
Speaker 3: getting one one draws. Anyone who's been betting the spread

436
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:57,879
Speaker 3: or draws good for them, and that's not me. They

437
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,200
Speaker 3: are minus one sixty three against Burnley, who are four

438
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 3: to one on the money line, the three way line,

439
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 3: and the draw here is plus three hundred. These lines,

440
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:06,879
Speaker 3: these odds, of course, are from our friends at bet

441
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:11,159
Speaker 3: three sixty five. It's hard not to be anything but

442
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 3: encouraged by the point from from Everton. I think against Newcastle,

443
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 3: I know they get the penalty, that was their second

444
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:20,199
Speaker 3: penalty of the year, so it's not like this. This

445
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 3: is a team that creates much, which is which that's

446
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:25,719
Speaker 3: a really weird stat Just for a team that crosses

447
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 3: as much as they do, you'd think that there'd be

448
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 3: a little bit more chaos in the box, a couple

449
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,919
Speaker 3: of handballs, the handball or just yeah, what happened with

450
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:36,640
Speaker 3: the derby, like you know that kind of exact play,

451
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 3: like how's that? Yeah, you know that that play should

452
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 3: be happening a lot more, you'd think, But.

453
00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:43,320
Speaker 2: The box very much.

454
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's usually across. It's usually across to to Betoe. Yeah, exactly,

455
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:53,200
Speaker 3: you know, running onto it. Who's yeah, it's it's tough, but.

456
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:54,920
Speaker 2: We don't spend a lot of time there. They're just

457
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 2: efficient usually when they get there.

458
00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:00,440
Speaker 1: Anyways, I like they get the point.

459
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:02,439
Speaker 3: It was I think a pretty big point considering the

460
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 3: other results, gives them a little bit of breathing room.

461
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 3: Burnley coming off another draw against Wolves in their last match,

462
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 3: so they are now four matches unbeaten, three draws and

463
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:18,160
Speaker 3: a win. The win came against Brentford. The draws were

464
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:20,360
Speaker 3: you know that Chelsea won, which was crazy west Ham

465
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 3: and then Wolves, so you know Brentford Burnley I should say,

466
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 3: is you know they're they're within a shot. They've got

467
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:27,960
Speaker 3: to win this match. They've definitely got this one circled.

468
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:29,399
Speaker 3: There's one of the most wins if they want to

469
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 3: even have a hope of staying up. So I wonder

470
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 3: if if they're may be a little bit more aggressive

471
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:41,399
Speaker 3: than they've been since it looks like companies kind of

472
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 3: put the handbrakes on lately. I think laying the minus

473
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:47,439
Speaker 3: one sixty three with everartt in here is a little crazy.

474
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:51,240
Speaker 3: So yeah, i'd played Burnley if anything, but you know,

475
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 3: with I'm just gonna sit back and root for the

476
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:54,680
Speaker 3: Toffees here.

477
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this was like minus one thirty five.

478
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:00,680
Speaker 2: You could have got that, like maybe you could sell

479
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:01,920
Speaker 2: me on it. But this, for me is the same

480
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:03,840
Speaker 2: thing as the Palace match that we watched on Monday

481
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:07,919
Speaker 2: night like a month ago, where okay, yeah, Everton's a

482
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:09,960
Speaker 2: home favorite, they should dominate this match, but can they

483
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 2: actually do anything from open play or is their whole

484
00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:13,560
Speaker 2: thing going to just be like we're gonna get some

485
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:17,359
Speaker 2: set pieces because they were so bad against Newcastle. I

486
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 2: thought from open play they had the one chance off

487
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 2: the post, they had, you know, the one look for

488
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:23,479
Speaker 2: dcl but he couldn't even get a shot off in

489
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 2: that one situation and then it went out for a goalkick.

490
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,680
Speaker 2: I'm like, dude, you know there are so many situations

491
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 2: where they don't really look composed in the final third

492
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 2: and they're lacking that quality and everything just comes down

493
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:40,639
Speaker 2: to the set pieces again, and as a favorite, trying

494
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 2: to win like this and get margin, which is what

495
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:44,360
Speaker 2: we have to do here since we're basically laying a goal.

496
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 2: No thank you. Burnley has played a little better. The

497
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 2: markets took some money on them the last two weeks.

498
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:53,560
Speaker 2: I mean, they got pretty lucky against Chelsea, but then

499
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:56,199
Speaker 2: you know, deserve the draw against Wolves, but we're going

500
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 2: to get to Wolves, and like the current state of

501
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 2: Wolves is like pretty ugly. Don't really give them a

502
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 2: ton of credit for that. They actually close the favorite

503
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:09,360
Speaker 2: against Wolves. But last nine hundred minutes, Everton has created

504
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:12,680
Speaker 2: one point five actually per ninety they're conceding one point six,

505
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,439
Speaker 2: so they've been like a league average and Burnley's closer

506
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:16,960
Speaker 2: to minus point seven. So if you just do the

507
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 2: raw numbers on that, yeah, the numbers about right. Everton's

508
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:22,879
Speaker 2: laying about a goal and I've got it like minus

509
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 2: one eighty two. So do I want to lay it?

510
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:26,639
Speaker 1: No, absolutely not.

511
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 2: I think the way Everton gets to their production is

512
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 2: just kind of really I mean, we had this debate

513
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:36,119
Speaker 2: on Sunday, but it's to me, if you want to

514
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 2: lay it, get crazy, like take some alts, hope they

515
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 2: hope that this is finally the game, everything goes right.

516
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,919
Speaker 2: But exactly Burnley doesn't even do the playing out from

517
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 2: the back thing anymore. That like, Everton could theoretically force

518
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 2: some high turnovers, which is what they're decent a, but

519
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 2: they're not gonna able to do that. So it's going

520
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:57,560
Speaker 2: to be a lot of Burnley sitting deep and that's

521
00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 2: just kind of been Everton's kryptonite all year.

522
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 3: That brings us to Fulham and Newcastle. Fulham plus one

523
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:05,639
Speaker 3: fifty five a slight favorite at home, Newcastle plus one

524
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:07,119
Speaker 3: seventy this dress plus two thirty.

525
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 1: I got nothing here at all.

526
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:18,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I also don't have anything. Newcastle has certainly continue

527
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 2: to ratchet up its attack, and I do wonder could

528
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 2: Fulham keep up if Newcastle's attack is firing, because I

529
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 2: really don't think so. But given how back and forth

530
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:31,199
Speaker 2: Fulham wants to play and how open they want the

531
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 2: matches to be, that's just generally what they do with Silva.

532
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 2: It's been the way for year and a half now.

533
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 2: Given that it just seems like I don't really trust

534
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:43,199
Speaker 2: Newcastle's defense in the slightest to get anything stopping them

535
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 2: from getting a ton of big chances at the other end,

536
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 2: Newcastle goes. They move burn in to replace Lacel's He

537
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 2: plays center back against Everton. He I mean, I thought

538
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,679
Speaker 2: they defended pretty well until the dumb penalty, so you

539
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:57,920
Speaker 2: can give them credit for that, you can upgrade them again.

540
00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:01,680
Speaker 2: It is a lean toward Newcastle for me. But when

541
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,160
Speaker 2: you give up so many big chances at the other end,

542
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:07,920
Speaker 2: and these kind of matches are the perfect team to

543
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 2: just rip you to shreds and you're away for him.

544
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:12,960
Speaker 2: You're giving up two xtug every time. How do I

545
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,119
Speaker 2: bet you as a pick them? It's really hard, so

546
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:16,160
Speaker 2: I can't.

547
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:18,119
Speaker 1: Pass all right.

548
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:20,160
Speaker 3: You touched on Wolves a bit. They are a slight

549
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:22,920
Speaker 3: home favorite to west Ham. They're plus one fifty five

550
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 3: on the three way line. West Ham is traveling at

551
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 3: plus one seventy. Anything here, that's another one I'll pass on.

552
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:34,199
Speaker 3: I think that it's been a fun ride with Wolves,

553
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 3: but not too much interesting here. These are two teams that,

554
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 3: like you said, Wolves is now a team you're pretty

555
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 3: we're all pretty skeptical of. And west Ham's been there

556
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 3: all season.

557
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the market is crazy with this Wolves

558
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 2: team now because they close as a favorite as a

559
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 2: dog at Burnley. Villa took a ton of money two

560
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 2: weeks ago a team that Villa. The market is hated

561
00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 2: Villa for months and the market went bananas in favor

562
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 2: of Villa, who then won the match. To know, the

563
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 2: market steems hard against Wolves. In the Burnley match, Burnley

564
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 2: outplays them for large stretches of that match. Neto and

565
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 2: Hwangi Chan are still both out. The whole transition beauty

566
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 2: of the team was built around those two players plus Kunya,

567
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 2: and they have not had them and they've looked awful.

568
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 2: Bella Guard should be back. He's been okay in the midfield.

569
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 2: But the case for Wolves here is that what is

570
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 2: the case? I mean west Ham loses Ariola, so they're

571
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 2: not going to be as good as shots stopping now, Okay,

572
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 2: maybe west Ham has much better attackers on the pitch.

573
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 2: Moys comes in probably just sits lets. Wolves have possession.

574
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 2: Wolves will have most of it, but they can't do

575
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 2: anything to break down defensive blocks, and then their defense

576
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 2: isn't all that good either. So I kind of lean

577
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:55,640
Speaker 2: with west Ham just based on the matchup and who's available.

578
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 2: But then the market also gives me a huge downgrade

579
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 2: on Wolves, so there's no real value in it for me.

580
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 2: If this got to a plus a quarter on west Ham,

581
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 2: I would I would I believe it or not bet

582
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:08,760
Speaker 2: the Hammers. But this line, the quality of the difference

583
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 2: in the quality of attackers from west Ham right now

584
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 2: with everybody available versus Wolves with nobody available is so

585
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 2: huge that this would be west Ham or nothing for me.

586
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 2: That just sounded weird to say, because we've in tie

587
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 2: them as a pod and there's still a bottom five

588
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 2: defense and they didn't like they defended well against Spurs.

589
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 2: It's just sitting absurdly deep, which I think is We're

590
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 2: going to see more teams do this against Ange and

591
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 2: I think that's going to be the next technical question

592
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 2: that plusa Kalgu's gonna have to solve, which we'll get

593
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 2: into in a minute. But west Ham as a pick

594
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 2: up on the road at Wolves feels like a correct

595
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 2: price to me.

596
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 3: Okay, that brings us to Lutontown hosting bourn with Loutontown

597
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 3: is plus to eighty kind of worth. Throat Born with

598
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 3: minus one of six, that draw is plus two fifty.

599
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 3: The Cherries continue to be impressive, well earned late winner

600
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 3: against Crystal Palace and a game that they thoroughly deserve

601
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 3: to get all three points.

602
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 1: And if you look, you know, going.

603
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 3: Right to right before the festive fixtures, And I said,

604
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 3: I brought this up in our last pot for the

605
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 3: midwek like Bournemouth is their underlying metrics are basically a

606
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 3: top that put them, would put them as a top

607
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 3: six club, like they're right there with Spurs and Brighton

608
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:26,959
Speaker 3: Villa better than Chelsea and United. It's it's it's been

609
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 3: a really impressive run here still and this is now

610
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:33,239
Speaker 3: a sustained you know, sample size if we're looking at

611
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 3: fourteen games from from the Cherry. So this is I

612
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 3: think a team that should be carrying a little bit

613
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 3: more weight than this number suggests. Like if you just

614
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 3: took that statistical profile and slapped Brighton's name on top

615
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:49,720
Speaker 3: of that, you know, instead of Bournemouth. I think this

616
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:52,479
Speaker 3: number looks a little bit different here. So I think

617
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 3: there's still some value as on the Cherries as a

618
00:31:55,040 --> 00:32:00,480
Speaker 3: road favorite anything for you here, Yeah, I.

619
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 2: Tend to agree. I mean it is a little scary

620
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:04,480
Speaker 2: when the team spotted the louton three goals. Last time

621
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 2: they played at Bournemouth, that was like the game of

622
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 2: the year. Bournemouth comes all the way back. But Luton

623
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 2: is so down right now in terms of just what

624
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 2: they do and do not have available. I mean they

625
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 2: had multiple teenagers on the bench today at Arsenal. You know,

626
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 2: so many of their key players are out and not

627
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 2: coming back for this match. So Samby Laconga out of

628
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 2: Bayo and a Kamba lock your madz Anderson, even Bene

629
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 2: is out to everyone did they rely on just about

630
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:41,160
Speaker 2: out besides like Carlton Mars. So the current version of

631
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 2: Luton is a sieve and they haven't really changed how

632
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:48,760
Speaker 2: they're playing defensively.

633
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 1: So I agree with you.

634
00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 2: I think it's borne with here. It's just it's just

635
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 2: hard for me to do it because I never thought

636
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 2: i'd be laying Burnemouth as a road favorite. You know,

637
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 2: odds on even though were high on them this year.

638
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 2: But the current state of Luton is really hard to

639
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 2: price because they are so bad and Arsenal stopped trying

640
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 2: to score. They could have put up four or five

641
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 2: if they wanted today. They just decided to pack it

642
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 2: in the second half. Bournemouth can't really defend either in

643
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 2: those situations if they're with a lead, they're not great defensively.

644
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:24,959
Speaker 2: But there's just so much like their health right now,

645
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 2: Bournemouth and full strength Borne withuth team against this version

646
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:30,440
Speaker 2: of Luton, there's a lot of downside to Luton right now.

647
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 1: I think Borne missed the play all right.

648
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:34,760
Speaker 3: Here's a couple fun ones to wrap it up the

649
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 3: Premier League portion of the show. At least Sheffield United.

650
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 3: It's six to one at home against Chelsea, the Blues

651
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 3: minus two twenty five on the road that the draw

652
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 3: here is plus three seventy five.

653
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 1: There's no way you're betting Chelsea at this number.

654
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:46,400
Speaker 2: I don't.

655
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:48,440
Speaker 3: I mean, I get there's probably a lot of people

656
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 3: out there that are gonna do it and they're gonna win.

657
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 3: They're gonna lump them in on a parlay on Saturday

658
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 3: and they'll pace Sheffield United. But just looking at the number,

659
00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 3: I mean this Chelsea teams shown that they can lose

660
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 3: or draw anybody.

661
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 1: We got to be on the Bleeds.

662
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 2: I'm gonna pass. Yeah.

663
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 3: Ah.

664
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:14,719
Speaker 2: You know, we don't know how bad it is for

665
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 2: Sheffield either, because they are dealing with a bunch of

666
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 2: injuries too, and that's why you're seeing that Liverpool number

667
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:23,320
Speaker 2: continue to run on Thursday. And that's why you know

668
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 2: this number keeps going. But I agree with you, like so,

669
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,000
Speaker 2: Chelsea just laid a goal and a half to Burnley

670
00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:29,400
Speaker 2: at home. Now they're gonna be laying damn near a

671
00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 2: goal in a quarter on the road. They have not

672
00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 2: been nearly good enough defensively to warrant that price, not

673
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 2: nearly consistent enough in possession, too many dumb mistakes, too

674
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:42,960
Speaker 2: much inconsistency. So yes, it is Sheffield or nothing. But

675
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:46,040
Speaker 2: for me it's gonna be nothing. If it's got to

676
00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 2: one and a half, I would bet it. I don't

677
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:49,160
Speaker 2: think it will. But if it got to one and

678
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:52,960
Speaker 2: a half, I would say that's too far. This is insane.

679
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 2: Time to back them here. I think it's about it's

680
00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:01,600
Speaker 2: about right, it's inflated. I have a culture to one,

681
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:04,320
Speaker 2: but it's not enough for me to say yes, I

682
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:06,719
Speaker 2: want to put my money on Sheffield United here. They

683
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:10,600
Speaker 2: they have gotten embarrassed at home way too many times

684
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 2: for me to just pretend that they haven't given up.

685
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:14,839
Speaker 2: I mean they give up three to follow them even

686
00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:17,320
Speaker 2: with a three one lead last week at home and

687
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 2: that was their best home performance defensively in months. It

688
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:25,040
Speaker 2: was five six five four five six now three oh,

689
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:30,160
Speaker 2: but it was Fulham. So yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna pass.

690
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 3: Okay, and that means we wrap with Spurs and Forrest

691
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 3: Tottenham minus two fifty, Forest plus six fifty.

692
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:38,839
Speaker 1: The draw here is plus three seventy five.

693
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 3: I continue to be impressed with this Forest team. In hockey,

694
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:45,880
Speaker 3: there's an expression called money on the board, which is

695
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 3: a lot of times when you know, our team trades

696
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:51,080
Speaker 3: a player and they go back and they play their

697
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:55,040
Speaker 3: old team, they put money on the board saying, you know,

698
00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:58,759
Speaker 3: I'll put up ten grand to whoever scores the game

699
00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:00,920
Speaker 3: winning goal or whatever. You know, that's at least the

700
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:04,279
Speaker 3: urban legend. This is a money on the board match

701
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:09,319
Speaker 3: for Nuno, his return to the London Stadium to take

702
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:15,360
Speaker 3: on a Spurs team that he wasn't able to successfully

703
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:17,280
Speaker 3: guide to anything.

704
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 2: Nine names right.

705
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:20,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was very ugly and.

706
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 2: They noon one, oh, because we would get bodied every

707
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 2: match and then win a hero.

708
00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:28,440
Speaker 3: But he's got Forest playing well like, there's no denying that,

709
00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:31,360
Speaker 3: so you know, maybe this is just his level, right,

710
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:33,360
Speaker 3: he did it he did a good job at Wolves

711
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:37,360
Speaker 3: for quite a bit and now he's he's looking pretty

712
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 3: like a pretty sound higher for for Forrest just has

713
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:44,719
Speaker 3: that ship at least pointed in the right direction, even

714
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:47,319
Speaker 3: with the points seduction. So I think with the way

715
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:51,640
Speaker 3: Forrest is going, you should take a serious, serious look

716
00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 3: at the tricky trees here.

717
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 2: I agree, and I talked about it. You know, very low,

718
00:36:56,680 --> 00:37:00,200
Speaker 2: deep defensive blocks have given Spurs problems. We saw this

719
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:03,520
Speaker 2: early in the season. Pallace gave them issues for a

720
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:05,799
Speaker 2: majority of a game until that own goal and then

721
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 2: kind of the floodgates opened. I think a first half

722
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:11,719
Speaker 2: under is a pretty good look here, But I think

723
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:15,879
Speaker 2: very low defensive blocks have been the recipe. If you're

724
00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:18,320
Speaker 2: not gonna just boss Tottenham, and most teams can't do

725
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:20,960
Speaker 2: it because they don't have the talent that like City does,

726
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:28,480
Speaker 2: then the alternative is to sit very deep and Forrest defensively. Yes,

727
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:30,920
Speaker 2: they've had their goalie issues, but they have a positive

728
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:32,840
Speaker 2: actually difference under. You know, they had a great result

729
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 2: at home against Forests at Fulham, and you know you're

730
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:40,239
Speaker 2: just inevitably going to get chances against Tottenham structurally the

731
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:42,919
Speaker 2: way that at a sets this team up, you're going

732
00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:45,239
Speaker 2: to get opportunities and Forrest as an attack have been

733
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 2: pretty poor undernew No it's just been we're just going

734
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:49,800
Speaker 2: to shut it down and play low event matches, averaging

735
00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 2: about one point twenty five XG per ninety but only

736
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:56,759
Speaker 2: giving up about one point twenty nine per ninety. So

737
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:01,719
Speaker 2: playing these super low event style, if you can hold

738
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:04,399
Speaker 2: up defensively, you're going to get those chances on the counter.

739
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 2: So at plus more and a half, I love Forest

740
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:08,080
Speaker 2: minus one twenty five out there. I put it in

741
00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:10,279
Speaker 2: the app right before we got on recording. I think

742
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 2: they're very live to get a result here. And like

743
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 2: I said, you're never out of it against Tottenham either

744
00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 2: because they invite variants and as a favorite, that can

745
00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 2: be risky when you're laying you know, a couple of

746
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:25,799
Speaker 2: goals or even a goal late in that style of play,

747
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:28,360
Speaker 2: doesn't you know. When you have an elite team like

748
00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 2: a Liverpool, you can see like the positive end of that,

749
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 2: But when you are not quite at that level and

750
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:37,320
Speaker 2: you're playing that style, it does introduce more variants. And

751
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 2: I know I would complain if he played the other

752
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 2: way too, So you can say that I'm talking at

753
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:45,440
Speaker 2: both sides of my mouth, but I just don't trust

754
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,440
Speaker 2: this team whatsoever defensively, and I actually think Forrest is

755
00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 2: considerably better defensively overall. So even with Tottenham having the

756
00:38:53,120 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 2: vastly superior attack, they don't really have as many solutions

757
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 2: to lower blocks that they've.

758
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:00,880
Speaker 1: Faced this year.

759
00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:06,600
Speaker 2: Is your charliston back It's unclear as now. I would

760
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 2: imagine he is not.

761
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 1: But if he played, I would bet him because you

762
00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 1: know he may.

763
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:13,919
Speaker 2: So he's not listed, so I guess yes, he's yeah,

764
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:14,839
Speaker 2: potentially back here.

765
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:17,160
Speaker 3: But you know he's such a big Everden fan, so

766
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:20,080
Speaker 3: you know this obviously would help Everdence, so back him

767
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 3: to to score. Okay, Bundesliga and Syria are the only

768
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:29,879
Speaker 3: two other leagues in Europe going this week.

769
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 1: What do you got?

770
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:34,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've got nothing in France the league. I ran

771
00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:36,719
Speaker 2: my numbers and had zero value on anything, and I said,

772
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 2: you know what, I'm much not gonna do France this week.

773
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:43,719
Speaker 2: So the Bundesliga BOCUM has played thirteen away matches this year.

774
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 2: They have conceded thirty two expected goals allowed thirty five goals.

775
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:50,359
Speaker 2: That is the worst in the league. We talk about

776
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 2: home way splits. They can be noisy, but BOCAM has

777
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:57,960
Speaker 2: been consistently awful defensively away from home since they joined

778
00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 2: the league two years ago. They got promoted thirty eight

779
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 2: expected goals allowed thirty five goals allowed. That was the

780
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 2: most in the Bundesliga away from home that year. Last

781
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:08,560
Speaker 2: season they stayed up because of their home form. They

782
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 2: give up thirty six expected goals. This is in seventeen

783
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:14,719
Speaker 2: matches forty goals. That was the second worst of the league,

784
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:17,360
Speaker 2: ahead of only Air to Berlin who was relegated. But

785
00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 2: again because of their home form, Bokum stayed in the

786
00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:24,600
Speaker 2: league this year. Like I said, thirteen away matches, they've

787
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 2: conceded the most XG in the league on the way

788
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:29,239
Speaker 2: away from home. Yet they're going to stay up again

789
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:33,280
Speaker 2: because of their home form. They really have an improved

790
00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 2: attack this year. Direct attacking play has been really good.

791
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 2: So now they're playing at Cologne, who is I mean

792
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:42,680
Speaker 2: not quite dead but Daniel drawing dead. The total is

793
00:40:42,719 --> 00:40:45,880
Speaker 2: only two and a half over minus won twenty. I'm sorry,

794
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:47,920
Speaker 2: like Bokum away from home totals should not be at

795
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:49,800
Speaker 2: two and a half unless they're playing mines or unun

796
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:54,520
Speaker 2: Berlin and Coloone's defense is a much better than Bokum's overall,

797
00:40:54,640 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 2: so there are a lot of avenues to this game

798
00:40:57,120 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 2: getting to three, and I have it close to three

799
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:00,880
Speaker 2: in my numbers, so over two and a half minus

800
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:03,840
Speaker 2: one twenty Dortmund Stuttgart.

801
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:06,080
Speaker 1: I thought the total was going to be three.

802
00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:08,319
Speaker 2: We could easily bet the over, but it is three

803
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:09,920
Speaker 2: and a half and that's where about where I have it,

804
00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:12,840
Speaker 2: so I'm gonna pass on that game. I lean towards Stutegart.

805
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 2: I think they're worth a shot, but you're not getting

806
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:18,840
Speaker 2: a ton of line value in the number, so I

807
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:21,640
Speaker 2: will say that's probably gonna be it for me in

808
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:25,320
Speaker 2: Germany this weekend. I wanted to fade Byron too, because

809
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:27,759
Speaker 2: they're in a spot where the league chase is over.

810
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 2: They're on thirteen points with seven matches left. They're at Heidenheim,

811
00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:35,239
Speaker 2: who's been a sneaky, plucky underdog this year. But the

812
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 2: line is crazy. They're own Byron's only minus three hundred.

813
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 2: I have it closer to four point fifty. I think

814
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:43,240
Speaker 2: the market is saying, hey, Byron might rotate this weekend

815
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:45,960
Speaker 2: because they know that they have Champions League Tuesday. They

816
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:47,839
Speaker 2: really should throw all their eggs in that basket because

817
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:51,520
Speaker 2: the league is over. Even still, if you wanted to

818
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 2: take a shot like six to one six plus six

819
00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:57,680
Speaker 2: fifty on hide Inheim, if Byron just doesn't care, rolls

820
00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:01,160
Speaker 2: out like a half big team, High Nim could pick

821
00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:04,080
Speaker 2: them off. So the number value sucks relative to what

822
00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:06,919
Speaker 2: it should be, but the spot sometimes you just can't

823
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 2: adequately price that. So I think High Nim's interesting is

824
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 2: like a long shot moneyline dog. They're not the team

825
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:14,240
Speaker 2: I'm gonna use for the parlay, but they are interesting

826
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 2: to me. I think if you just faded Byron on

827
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:18,920
Speaker 2: the money line every match the rest of the Bundesliga season,

828
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 2: you probably win a couple, although I haven't looked at

829
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 2: the schedule, and it's just because they don't care anymore.

830
00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:32,000
Speaker 1: Or anything else for you. You got a oh, you've.

831
00:42:32,239 --> 00:42:34,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm Gonavet. You've a minus won twenty five at

832
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:37,320
Speaker 2: home against Fiorentina. Both teams played in the Coopa Talia

833
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:41,040
Speaker 2: this week first leg semifinal. Jve gets an extra day arrest.

834
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:45,399
Speaker 2: You've a very quietly one win in their last nine

835
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:47,520
Speaker 2: matches in Italy, which is kind of wild. They've had

836
00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 2: a lot of draws, they've been getting picked off. They've

837
00:42:49,200 --> 00:42:51,799
Speaker 2: dealt with a bunch of injuries as well. Now they're

838
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:53,959
Speaker 2: finally getting healthy. They had their full compliment of guys

839
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:58,160
Speaker 2: available for the match against Lazzio on Tuesday, after they

840
00:42:58,239 --> 00:43:03,799
Speaker 2: lost to Lotzio on Sunday or Saturday rather. Now they're

841
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:06,439
Speaker 2: at home against Fiorentina. I mean, Fiorentina is like league

842
00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:10,000
Speaker 2: average and everything. Juventus, as much as they've struggled in

843
00:43:10,080 --> 00:43:13,359
Speaker 2: the last two months, they have been clearly better than

844
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:16,920
Speaker 2: Fiorentina this year, so I like them laying the juice

845
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:20,239
Speaker 2: minus one twenty five. I think they mean, I haven't

846
00:43:20,239 --> 00:43:22,880
Speaker 2: close to minus one sixty. I think they're clearly the

847
00:43:22,960 --> 00:43:25,880
Speaker 2: better team and at home, so you've okay.

848
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 1: That brings us to the underdog parlay.

849
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:31,320
Speaker 3: As I said, off the top, one hundred and seventy

850
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:34,319
Speaker 3: nine to one, this thing will come out at I'll

851
00:43:34,360 --> 00:43:38,680
Speaker 3: start with BJS. He likes not Ingham Forced they are

852
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:41,359
Speaker 3: seven as high as seven to one. Anthony laid out

853
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:45,080
Speaker 3: a pretty good reason to bet them right, taking on

854
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:48,600
Speaker 3: a leaky Spurs defense that can keep any team in

855
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:52,520
Speaker 3: a match, and Force is improving, so if Forrest can

856
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:54,960
Speaker 3: hang in there and take their chances.

857
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:57,040
Speaker 1: They are certainly with a shot, especially with that number.

858
00:43:57,320 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with Brentford. They are four to one

859
00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:02,920
Speaker 3: right now against Aston Villa. A Villa defense is similar

860
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:08,080
Speaker 3: to that Spurs Spurs Forest handicap, right like, this is

861
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:11,960
Speaker 3: a decent and up defensive side in Brentford going up

862
00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:14,359
Speaker 3: a much better you know, obviously Villa's a much better side.

863
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:18,719
Speaker 3: Can they hang on and punish Villa Villa's defensive foibles?

864
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:19,440
Speaker 3: I think that they can.

865
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:21,759
Speaker 2: We do.

866
00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:24,399
Speaker 3: I still believe that Brentford is better than what they're

867
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:28,640
Speaker 3: showing the numbers of dip, but they're still underperforming compared

868
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:30,839
Speaker 3: to their their actually quite a bit. So I think

869
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:33,920
Speaker 3: that Brentford is still They've still got an upset or

870
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:36,960
Speaker 3: two in them down the stretch here. So Brentford for

871
00:44:37,080 --> 00:44:38,719
Speaker 3: me at four to one, onto you.

872
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:43,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, you bet against you know, the team's chasing fourth, fifth, sixth,

873
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:46,600
Speaker 2: So did bj I'm gonna bet on Man United at

874
00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:48,480
Speaker 2: plus three fifty and kind of lean into the variant

875
00:44:48,560 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 2: of the fact that they can exploit Liverpool defensively at

876
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:55,360
Speaker 2: home and yes, like does Liverpool have a ton of

877
00:44:55,400 --> 00:44:58,200
Speaker 2: avenues to success? Are they probably going to score goals, yes,

878
00:44:58,280 --> 00:45:00,279
Speaker 2: but I think United can go with them and United

879
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 2: it's pretty healthy and attack right now. Their defense is awful.

880
00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:06,279
Speaker 2: But in a high variance matchup. We just saw this

881
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 2: two weeks ago. You're getting an extra you know, forty

882
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:13,040
Speaker 2: fifty cents from that match when United did win it.

883
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 2: So what's the difference in the market right now. I

884
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:17,360
Speaker 2: don't really agree with Liverpool taking all this money so

885
00:45:17,840 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 2: United money line crazy to me, But I know I

886
00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:23,080
Speaker 2: don't like to bet this team very often, but I'm

887
00:45:23,080 --> 00:45:23,680
Speaker 2: gonna bet them here.

888
00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:26,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, if you're getting Anthony on on board with the

889
00:45:26,520 --> 00:45:31,840
Speaker 3: Red Devils, it's quite an accomplishment. So that's Brentford Manchester

890
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:34,960
Speaker 3: United and noting a force one hundred and seventy nine

891
00:45:35,000 --> 00:45:37,320
Speaker 3: to one. I was close to making man United my

892
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:39,160
Speaker 3: best bet, but I'm going to go with the other

893
00:45:39,239 --> 00:45:42,800
Speaker 3: Manchester team and go with the total there. I like

894
00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:44,960
Speaker 3: the under two and a half at plus one twenty

895
00:45:44,960 --> 00:45:47,480
Speaker 3: against Crystal Palace. I think that this is much more

896
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:50,400
Speaker 3: a pencil and paper handicap than anything else. Like you

897
00:45:50,520 --> 00:45:52,719
Speaker 3: look at what the situation is for a city right now.

898
00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:55,960
Speaker 3: They're in that title race. They've Crystal Palace has been

899
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:58,440
Speaker 3: a team of horrors for them over the past few years.

900
00:45:58,880 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 1: They're going to.

901
00:45:59,560 --> 00:46:02,000
Speaker 3: Look at this with the Champions League right on the

902
00:46:02,040 --> 00:46:03,640
Speaker 3: other side of the weekend and say, we got to

903
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:05,919
Speaker 3: just get in there, get out of there with three

904
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:07,920
Speaker 3: points by hook or by crook, and I think that

905
00:46:08,040 --> 00:46:10,400
Speaker 3: the best way to do that would be getting a

906
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:13,719
Speaker 3: goal on the board, shutting things down. You're not going

907
00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:16,600
Speaker 3: to be all that threatened by the Palace attack by

908
00:46:16,640 --> 00:46:20,040
Speaker 3: the looks of it, under Glassner. It's just not started

909
00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 3: to cook yet, So I think that this game looks

910
00:46:23,280 --> 00:46:27,439
Speaker 3: very sleepy. I don't mind the one nil exact score

911
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 3: a line to City as well at plus seven fifty,

912
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:34,160
Speaker 3: so anything correlated to that, but I'll circle under two

913
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:35,600
Speaker 3: and a half plus one twenty is my favorite bet.

914
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:37,280
Speaker 1: What about you, Well, we've.

915
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:38,880
Speaker 2: I've won three straight unders in the prem which is

916
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:40,719
Speaker 2: a miracle. I'm going to try to make it four.

917
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:45,440
Speaker 2: Bright In Arsenal under three and even money. Arsenal's attack

918
00:46:45,600 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 2: was cooking early in the January period February, scoring a

919
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:51,560
Speaker 2: ton of goals on really bad defenses. Bright is not

920
00:46:51,719 --> 00:46:55,160
Speaker 2: that Brighton is a top half defense, clearly and improving defense,

921
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:57,239
Speaker 2: and it's come at the expense of their attack, which

922
00:46:57,320 --> 00:47:00,560
Speaker 2: is taking a real tumble. I know Arsenal's defense will travel,

923
00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:03,480
Speaker 2: I don't know how healthy Arsenal's best attackers are right now,

924
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:05,440
Speaker 2: and so for that reason, I like hundred three.

925
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 3: That you have it another episode of Wonder Girl in

926
00:47:09,160 --> 00:47:12,320
Speaker 3: the Books. We will be back again in your ears

927
00:47:12,480 --> 00:47:17,520
Speaker 3: on Monday morning to preview the upcoming Champions League slate

928
00:47:17,680 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 3: Tuesday and Wednesday. Until then, best of luck with all

929
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:22,480
Speaker 3: your bets for Anthony, I'm Michael.

930
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:24,360
Speaker 1: Thank you to our producer no, and thank you for listening.

931
00:47:30,880 --> 00:47:35,360
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

932
00:47:35,440 --> 00:47:38,200
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

933
00:47:38,239 --> 00:47:41,320
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler