1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:11,800 Speaker 2: No, you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us 3 00:00:11,840 --> 00:00:14,800 Speaker 2: live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Car playing 4 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:17,919 Speaker 2: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand 5 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 3: Remember, they notify the Treasury Department notified lawmakers just yesterday 7 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:31,520 Speaker 3: that a China state sponsored actor infiltrated workstations. And what, 8 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 3: as you've been saying, the officials are now calling a 9 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 3: major incident. We're going to bring in Jamie Tarabay, who 10 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 3: covers cybersecurity for Bloomberg. How do you see what happened 11 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 3: to the Treasury Department compared to what we've seen in 12 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 3: other hacks that were facilitated by Chinese actors, state sponsored actors. 13 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:54,920 Speaker 4: It's almost like another day, another hack. Quite frankly, at 14 00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 4: this point, we have been dealing with years of whites 15 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:04,640 Speaker 4: read long running hacking campaigns, whether there's a cyber espionage 16 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:09,480 Speaker 4: or prepositioning in the possible events of a conflict with Taiwan. 17 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 4: But we have seen just literally years and years and 18 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 4: years of attempts and intrusions and compromises of American and 19 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:23,759 Speaker 4: international critical infrastructure networks by Chinese state sponsored hacking. So 20 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 4: this is something that has been happening for years, and 21 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:32,559 Speaker 4: the more obvious and the more we talk about these things, 22 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:37,200 Speaker 4: the more the expectation is that we expect minimum cybersecurity 23 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 4: standards from not just the private sector, but from government agencies, 24 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 4: especially one as critical as US Treasury. 25 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 5: What's the expectation as to the defenses of some of 26 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 5: these government agencies. Is the belief that the US government 27 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 5: has decent cybersecurity defenses or not? 28 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 4: You know, that's a really complicate a question because a 29 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 4: lot of the time, a lot of these federal government 30 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 4: agencies depend on contract with third party providers where they 31 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 4: have devices that often they're called end of life, so 32 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 4: they're routers or they're interconnected devices that basically connect networks together, 33 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 4: and they haven't been updated or they are obsolete and 34 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:27,120 Speaker 4: they need to be changed. And because bureaucracy and the 35 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 4: federal government is so large, it's always a challenge, it 36 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 4: always costs money, and it always is a big undertaking. 37 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:38,839 Speaker 4: So we are seeing more and more and more of 38 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 4: these end of life products being compromised. We know more 39 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:45,160 Speaker 4: about the fact that these are entry points in a 40 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:50,000 Speaker 4: lot of different hacking campaigns, So it's really we want 41 00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 4: to see more cybersecurity audits. We would love to see 42 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 4: more transparency from federal government agencies about what they're doing 43 00:02:56,520 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 4: in terms of shoring up their systems, using the party providers, 44 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 4: using incident response, using cybersecurity firms, as well as deploying 45 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:10,920 Speaker 4: agencies like CISA, the FBI, and other agencies that are 46 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 4: concerned with cybersecurity, particularly as we know and has been 47 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 4: said repeatedly by government officials for years now, that there 48 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:23,359 Speaker 4: are Chinese attempts and actions to get into our systems 49 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 4: to basically have access to inspectual property and you know, 50 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 4: as well as intelligence gathering purposes. 51 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 6: By the way, the Chinese embassy in Washington says it 52 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 6: opposes quote smear attacks against China without any factual basis. 53 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 6: They say the US needs to stop using cybersecurity to 54 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:48,960 Speaker 6: smear and slander China and stop spreading all kinds of 55 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 6: disinformation about the so called Chinese hacking threat. 56 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 1: How sure are we about. 57 00:03:55,000 --> 00:04:00,160 Speaker 6: This stuff, because I think it's a huge allegation. It 58 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 6: could be construed as an act of war. Frankly, hacking 59 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 6: the Department of Justice, the Department of defense the Treasury. 60 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 6: So is it firmly, you know, evidenced that the Chinese, 61 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 6: that Chinese state hackers are behind this stuff. 62 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 4: I think the phrasing of the letter that Treasury is 63 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 4: sent to Senator job Brown and sim Scott were basically 64 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:27,600 Speaker 4: saying that they had denoted it as a major cyber 65 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:30,800 Speaker 4: security incident, which is what they do when they attribute 66 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 4: it to a state sponsored actor. And the fact that 67 00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:37,479 Speaker 4: they said that after the investigations by government agencies, the 68 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:42,479 Speaker 4: attribution is crystal clear makes it extremely definitive. They would 69 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 4: not be putting that in a letter to Congress if 70 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:49,360 Speaker 4: they weren't sure, and it's it would probably it would 71 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 4: meet the hahollmarks and trade craft of previous Chinese hacking attempts. 72 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 4: So there are indicators of compromise. There are tactics and 73 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:03,279 Speaker 4: procedures that these hackers would be using that are about 74 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 4: our identifiable to the people. 75 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:06,520 Speaker 7: Who track them. 76 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 4: And there are also companies like Microsoft that have visibility 77 00:05:10,839 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 4: over the Internet and watch certain threat actors as they 78 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 4: move across networks, and they're able to recognize their patterns 79 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:19,279 Speaker 4: of behavior as well as the places that they're in gering. 80 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:22,800 Speaker 3: The Treasury Department was notified by on December eighth by 81 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:28,040 Speaker 3: a third party provider. They notified Congress on December thirtieth. 82 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:30,280 Speaker 6: By the way, ironically called beyond Trust. 83 00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 1: You can say that act right. 84 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:34,839 Speaker 3: Yes, yes, yes, that is that. There is an irony 85 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:37,279 Speaker 3: to that. But the three week lags is what I 86 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 3: want to ask about here. Why do they wait so 87 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:43,560 Speaker 3: long to notify law makers for such an important government body. 88 00:05:44,320 --> 00:05:46,839 Speaker 4: That's a great question, you know, we would love to know, 89 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 4: and right now we're not getting that information from Treasury. 90 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:54,120 Speaker 4: A lot of the times, when particularly this past year, 91 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 4: you would have heard about Salt Typhoon and Vault Typhoon, 92 00:05:56,440 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 4: which are extensive hacking campaigns, a lot of the communication 93 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:04,040 Speaker 4: companies that have been impacted have not disclosed those hacks 94 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:08,479 Speaker 4: because they've been getting waivers on a national security basis 95 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:11,599 Speaker 4: that they would have agreed on with the intelligence community, 96 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 4: with the government. So if they have not been able 97 00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:18,960 Speaker 4: to declare or disclose those hacks, it's for myriad reasons, 98 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 4: including national security, but also they want to be sure 99 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:24,520 Speaker 4: that they know what they have. They also want to 100 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:27,640 Speaker 4: probably be able to say that they have eradicated the problem, 101 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:31,040 Speaker 4: that they've mitigated any kind of compromise and that they're 102 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:33,719 Speaker 4: able to sort of say we found it, we've detected it, 103 00:06:33,800 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 4: we're dealing with it. It's over. 104 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 6: Jamie, thanks so much for joining us, Jamie Terrabay reporting 105 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 6: on that incident. 106 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:43,920 Speaker 1: And it is the one that we know about. There 107 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 1: are others. 108 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 6: Perhaps that we don't because Beyond Trust said that a 109 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:52,239 Speaker 6: limited number of customers Plural were involved in this hack, 110 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 6: and they also have contracts with the Department of Defense, 111 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 6: with the Department of Justice, with the Department of Veterans Affairs. 112 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:02,039 Speaker 1: It could be those. 113 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 6: Other agencies haven't gotten back to us and havn't a 114 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:05,839 Speaker 6: learned in Congress as far as we know that they 115 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 6: were affected as well. And Paul, as you point out, 116 00:07:09,960 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 6: this really makes you rethink the TikTok issue. 117 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 5: That's kind of the issue I thought about when I 118 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 5: was reading the story today, was this has put the 119 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 5: TikTok issue, which is Supreme Court Presembly will take a 120 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 5: look at soon. Does I put it in a different 121 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 5: light for some people? And I suspect it will because 122 00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 5: who's to say, what's China state versus China private. 123 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 1: I don't have a clear understanding of that. And isn't 124 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 1: that the same. I think it is for a lot 125 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 1: of issues. 126 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 3: And yeah, ill thing about this too is the Treasury 127 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 3: Department around that time December eighth, there was a lot 128 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:40,679 Speaker 3: of issue in since then, and there was a lot 129 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 3: of remember wrangling around the debt ceiling and the US 130 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 3: fiscal situation. You know, what kind of interference was there 131 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 3: and can they show that there wasn't a significant enough 132 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 3: interference to markets? Was there any It's hard to understand 133 00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 3: really what the ramifications are from the hack itself. 134 00:07:58,120 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, I think there's still a lot to on 135 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 1: pack here. 136 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 137 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:09,520 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 138 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 139 00:08:12,440 --> 00:08:15,520 Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 140 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:18,679 Speaker 2: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 141 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 1: Ronica Clark Joints US. 142 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 5: She's a director of research and the US economists over 143 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 5: there at that little bank on the quarter called City 144 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 5: Bank Veronica. What's your twenty twenty five message to your 145 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:34,679 Speaker 5: city clients about this US economy? 146 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 7: Yeah? 147 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:39,199 Speaker 8: Yeah, I liked the previous discussion of the very bifurcated economy. 148 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 8: I think that we're experiencing where we're lower income people 149 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:44,920 Speaker 8: are certainly struggling higher income consumers or maybe what is 150 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 8: supporting you aggregate consumption. But I do think this is 151 00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 8: a very precarious economy, and that's I think the message 152 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:51,080 Speaker 8: for twenty. 153 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:52,559 Speaker 7: Twenty five for our of you. 154 00:08:52,679 --> 00:08:54,599 Speaker 8: It really does come down, I think, to weakness that 155 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 8: we're seeing in the labor market, and I do worry 156 00:08:57,120 --> 00:08:59,160 Speaker 8: that the FED has maybe gotten a bit complacent on 157 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:02,000 Speaker 8: that labor market weakening. And we do think that this 158 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 8: is a FED that's going to be cutting rates a 159 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:06,240 Speaker 8: lot more than market's currently priced in twenty twenty five. 160 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 6: The FED is going to cut rates more than is 161 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 6: currently priced in twenty twenty five. So you're not worried 162 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 6: about policy driven reinflation next year. 163 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:18,319 Speaker 7: Yeah, not particularly. 164 00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:21,000 Speaker 8: I think a lot of the fundamental drivers that you know, 165 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:23,400 Speaker 8: we've seen of inflation over the last couple of years 166 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 8: do look a lot better even compared to a year ago. 167 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:28,839 Speaker 8: Even just this morning we got case Shiller home price data. 168 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 8: Home prices are running at a normal, pre pandemic kind 169 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:35,319 Speaker 8: of pace that doesn't seem like a future source of inflation. 170 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 8: And that's really where you would see signs of re 171 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:40,640 Speaker 8: emerging inflation if rates were too low. We do see 172 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:43,520 Speaker 8: the labor market weakening. That means that wage growth has load. 173 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 8: The labor market doesn't seem like a source of inflationary 174 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 8: pressure anymore. I do think there's a lot of ways 175 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 8: that we can see something that looks more like two 176 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 8: percent inflation in twenty twenty five. 177 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:55,200 Speaker 3: So one thing I wonder about a lot, too, is 178 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:57,959 Speaker 3: you said that bifurcation in the economy and in your 179 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:02,960 Speaker 3: kind of already hinting at potential further pains ahead. There 180 00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:05,319 Speaker 3: was a great point made earlier today by Danielle di 181 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:07,840 Speaker 3: Martino Booth that you might see some of those kind 182 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:11,160 Speaker 3: of middle to upper income consumers also start feeling some pain. 183 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 3: Some of that pain might be seen as early as 184 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 3: the coming days when you look at kind of student 185 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:20,400 Speaker 3: loan repayment rates. For example, housing prices are still high, 186 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:22,960 Speaker 3: cost of rent is still high. I mean, how do 187 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 3: you think about that drift higher in terms of the 188 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 3: pain that consumers will be feeling into twenty twenty five. 189 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:33,679 Speaker 8: Yeah, I do think that's what we've seen, you know, 190 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 8: very gradually happening over the last year or so. 191 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 7: You know, a lot of aggregate. 192 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 8: You know, measures of consumer health really don't look very comforting. 193 00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:45,160 Speaker 8: We have the savings rate which is below pre pandemic levels, 194 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:48,959 Speaker 8: and falling consumer delinquencies on credit cards, auto. 195 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 7: Loans, you know, they're above twenty nineteen levels. 196 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:54,319 Speaker 8: Yes, you know, student loans haven't been counted as defaulted yet, 197 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:55,720 Speaker 8: but they will start to be soon. 198 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:57,280 Speaker 7: Those do have to start being repaid. 199 00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:00,680 Speaker 8: I do think the fundamental driver of whether people are 200 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:03,040 Speaker 8: going to continue spending is if you have a job 201 00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:05,640 Speaker 8: or not. And of course the unemployment rate is still 202 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:07,960 Speaker 8: at a healthy level, but it's been trending higher and 203 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:10,720 Speaker 8: hiring has been very weak. If we do get to 204 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:12,839 Speaker 8: that stage where people are starting to lose their jobs, 205 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 8: that I think really would get people to cut back 206 00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 8: on spending. 207 00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:17,800 Speaker 1: What do you think drive drives that? 208 00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 6: I mean, what pushes companies to I guess if there's 209 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:25,439 Speaker 6: no GDP growth, they're not going to need to keep hiring. 210 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:28,679 Speaker 6: If there is lower revenue for these big corporations, they 211 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 6: won't need more people. 212 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:31,640 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, yeah, absolutely. 213 00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 8: We've had you know, two to three percent GDP growth 214 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:36,559 Speaker 8: for a couple of years, and still the unemployment rate 215 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:39,240 Speaker 8: has risen by almost a percentage point from from the lows. 216 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 8: Hiring is very weak, it's at mid two thousand and 217 00:11:41,880 --> 00:11:44,679 Speaker 8: eight kind of rates. So we already see that businesses 218 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 8: are trying to cut labor costs, and I do think 219 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 8: that's a result of maybe trying to offset high borrowing costs. 220 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 8: You know, rates are still restrictive if people do start 221 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:54,680 Speaker 8: to cut back on spending anymore. You know, if that's 222 00:11:54,760 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 8: less business revenue, and you've already been looking for every 223 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:00,559 Speaker 8: way to cut labor costs by not hiring or reducing hours, 224 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 8: that might get you to layoffs. We've also seen people 225 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:07,199 Speaker 8: are not quitting as much, probably for worry of finding 226 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:10,640 Speaker 8: a new job. That might mean that lack of voluntary 227 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:13,720 Speaker 8: separations might turn into involuntary separations. So there are definitely 228 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 8: ways that you can get to that layoff stage. 229 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:18,079 Speaker 5: Given that back job Ronica, how much do you think 230 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:19,319 Speaker 5: the FED could cut? 231 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 1: How many times in twenty twenty five, we. 232 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 8: Think one hundred and twenty five basis points, so that's 233 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 8: five twenty five basis point cuts. Of course, that's much 234 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 8: more than what the market is pricing right now. 235 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 3: So how much then are you worried about the spillover 236 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:36,520 Speaker 3: effects because we've had investors tell us that, Okay, a 237 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:39,080 Speaker 3: lot of the assumptions when it comes to stock market 238 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 3: predictions for next year are really predicated on sufficient growth. 239 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:48,079 Speaker 3: But between what you're saying about potential weaknesses and consumers 240 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 3: and also what you might expect from the Trump government 241 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:58,160 Speaker 3: in terms of efficiency seeking and bond vigilantes just calming 242 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 3: after the bond market, potentially, if the fiscal situation does 243 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:05,040 Speaker 3: not improve, all of this put together, does it signal 244 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 3: that growth is potentially compromised. 245 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:10,440 Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah, I think it does. 246 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:13,280 Speaker 8: I mean, we're expecting something like one percent average growth 247 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:16,120 Speaker 8: for next year. I do think you'll fundamentally if we 248 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:17,839 Speaker 8: look back at the last couple of years, you. 249 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 7: Know, I do think rates are restrictive. 250 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:23,040 Speaker 8: We've had such substantial fiscal support post pandemic, and that 251 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 8: was the immediate post pandemic, you know, policies, but also 252 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:29,120 Speaker 8: in Placial Reduction Act and infrastructure, and that is going 253 00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:31,600 Speaker 8: to be fading. You know, in twenty twenty five. We'll 254 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:34,840 Speaker 8: see if we do get further cuts to government spending. 255 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 8: But that fiscal impulse is flat to maybe negative for 256 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:40,680 Speaker 8: next year and rates are still restrictive, This could be 257 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:42,600 Speaker 8: the time that it finally catches up with us. 258 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:44,280 Speaker 6: Well, if they cut down one hundred and twenty five 259 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:47,960 Speaker 6: basis points, we're at three percent even on the lower bound, 260 00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:53,040 Speaker 6: and that should be I would say pretty stimulative. Victoria 261 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:55,480 Speaker 6: or Veronica, Sorry, thanks so much for joining us. Veronica 262 00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:59,400 Speaker 6: Clark there is the city director of Research and US Economists, 263 00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:01,960 Speaker 6: talking to us about her expectations for twenty twenty five. 264 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:04,200 Speaker 6: Happy New Year to all of you. 265 00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 266 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:11,959 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Playing androud 267 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 2: Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 268 00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:19,440 Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 269 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:22,480 Speaker 6: I want to turn to the big take story on 270 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 6: the Bloomberg terminal this morning. As the US debt we've 271 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:31,480 Speaker 6: been talking about balloons in the direction of fifty trillion dollars. 272 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:34,640 Speaker 6: Treasury bond dealers are warning of the risk of growing 273 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 6: market pressures. Joining us now is Bloomberg's Alex Harris, who 274 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 6: has more on this story. And Alex, some of the 275 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 6: numbers here were shocking even to me and I cover 276 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 6: you know this market every day, But treasury issuances one 277 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:53,720 Speaker 6: nat West executive told you has tripled over the past decade. Meanwhile, 278 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 6: the balance sheets of these banks aren't catching up. So 279 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:00,160 Speaker 6: being a primary dealer an easy these days. 280 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 9: No, And you know, you look at Citadel in this case, 281 00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 9: and they had been buying to become a primary dealer 282 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:10,200 Speaker 9: for years and finally in September said, you know what, thanks, 283 00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 9: but no thanks. This is just a losing proposition. And 284 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:15,640 Speaker 9: I think that's how people are feeling about it now 285 00:15:15,880 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 9: and why you're not seeing the primary dealer community even 286 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:22,240 Speaker 9: grow to keep up with the amount of supply and 287 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 9: the amount of debt that the government is issuing. And 288 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 9: that's a problem because you need those primary dealers. You 289 00:15:27,920 --> 00:15:31,280 Speaker 9: need them to facilitate these you know, in these markets 290 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 9: from the auctions to secondary market. And remember their balance 291 00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:37,920 Speaker 9: sheets for these dealers isn't just treasuries. It's a lot 292 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 9: of other things. It's equities, it's mortgage backed securities, it's 293 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:43,360 Speaker 9: asset back secures. So you're playing with all these things. 294 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:45,560 Speaker 9: And as you can see what happened if you look 295 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:48,560 Speaker 9: back to March twenty twenty, I mean, that's a really 296 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:51,000 Speaker 9: good example of what happened when the treasury market ceased 297 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 9: to function and dealer balance sheets just could not handle 298 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 9: what it needed to do across all asset classes, and 299 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 9: that's the very thing that it's a regular returns. 300 00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 3: Maybe let's take a large step back for a moment here, 301 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:05,760 Speaker 3: because there are a lot of confusing dynamics that are 302 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:07,960 Speaker 3: happening in the treasury market. One is the size of 303 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 3: the US DOT load alone. Then there comes the plumbing 304 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:16,600 Speaker 3: questions why overnight funding seems to hit pockets of stress 305 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 3: every so often, the dealer balance sheets being constrained as 306 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:23,160 Speaker 3: they are, as you say, and then hedge funds trading 307 00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 3: with a lot of leverage in this system. What is 308 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:30,680 Speaker 3: actually the problem here and the risk in the way 309 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:32,080 Speaker 3: the plumbing is working. 310 00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 9: So right now, what's happening and where the primary dealers 311 00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:39,520 Speaker 9: are having problems is when you're asked to facilitate and 312 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,800 Speaker 9: intermediate in this market, but you don't have the balance 313 00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 9: sheet to do it. You have to charge higher funding costs. 314 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 9: So that means if you are looking to borrow treasuries, 315 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 9: say in the rebo market, and you're a hedge fund 316 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 9: or an asset manager and you need to borrow to 317 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 9: finance securities, you're going to have to pay more. And 318 00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 9: there might be a point where they are not to 319 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:03,280 Speaker 9: pay as much as the dealers are asking them, and 320 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 9: so that's when you get backstops and you get you know, 321 00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 9: stopping out of positions, and all of that has to 322 00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 9: make its way back onto the dealer balance sheets, and 323 00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:14,640 Speaker 9: so that's where they get clogged. And right now there's 324 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:18,760 Speaker 9: four hundred billion in aggregate treasuries alone sitting on dealer 325 00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 9: balance sheets. And then every time you get a treasury 326 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:24,520 Speaker 9: settlement cycle, so the middle of the month and the 327 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:27,359 Speaker 9: end of the month, you're getting a backup in repo rates. 328 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:30,440 Speaker 9: It's becoming a regular occurrence and we're seeing it quite often. 329 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:31,040 Speaker 7: This year. 330 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:35,960 Speaker 9: July, dealer balance sheets were stuck. End of September was 331 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:40,000 Speaker 9: a very volatile quarter end that nobody expected. Your end 332 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:43,679 Speaker 9: has thankfully been really today it's very mild. Repo is 333 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:46,920 Speaker 9: under control. But it's because the minute the calendar turned 334 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:49,840 Speaker 9: to October, everybody said, wait a minute, we have to 335 00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:52,399 Speaker 9: be better prepared for this. And so you saw repo 336 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:54,840 Speaker 9: rates actually back up to five and a half percent 337 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:57,680 Speaker 9: in the middle of November because people said, I want 338 00:17:57,680 --> 00:17:59,840 Speaker 9: to get caught. I got to do this now. 339 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:04,200 Speaker 3: And so Alex, another question about this too. We're talking 340 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:06,880 Speaker 3: about the treasury market here. It's not only the deepest 341 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:09,360 Speaker 3: most liquid market in the world, it's one of the largest, 342 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 3: and it also underpins the cost of every other type 343 00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:15,639 Speaker 3: of borrowing. And if you're talking about the need to 344 00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 3: kind of back up rates as you're talking about in 345 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:21,399 Speaker 3: certain parts of the market, At what point does this 346 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:24,080 Speaker 3: become a larger issue, even a tax payer issue. 347 00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:27,119 Speaker 9: Oh, I mean, well, you can see in some in 348 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:29,560 Speaker 9: some cases it already is. I mean, you guys were 349 00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:32,040 Speaker 9: just talking about interest in the cost of interest in 350 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:35,040 Speaker 9: the last segment. You know, that's that's what it's going 351 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 9: to look like to the taxpayer, is that, you know, 352 00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:40,439 Speaker 9: the auctions are just going to get more expensive because 353 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:42,400 Speaker 9: it's just going to get harder and harder for these 354 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:46,240 Speaker 9: dealers to continue taking down this supply. And what's interesting 355 00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:49,560 Speaker 9: is remember not the dealer balance sheets are not created equals, 356 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:52,760 Speaker 9: so you know, dealers have the autonomy to decide where 357 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 9: their priorities are. And you know, during the treasury refunding 358 00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:58,639 Speaker 9: one year, I think it was last May, you know, 359 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:00,880 Speaker 9: they were doing something called loose and they were just 360 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:03,760 Speaker 9: kind of kicking around ideas and what they could do 361 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:06,320 Speaker 9: to help improve treasury market function, and one of the 362 00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:09,080 Speaker 9: things they proposed is almost doing a table to see 363 00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:12,040 Speaker 9: who the biggest dealers were in the treasury auctions as 364 00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:13,879 Speaker 9: a way to sort of light a fire under the 365 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,120 Speaker 9: rest of the dealer community to say, hey, if you're 366 00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 9: not doing your part and you're not pulling your weight, 367 00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,399 Speaker 9: you have to because there's just too much supply to 368 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:24,119 Speaker 9: leave it to a handful of dealers to be taken down. 369 00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 9: There's only twenty four of them. We're down from the 370 00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:28,000 Speaker 9: peak that we saw in terms of the number of 371 00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:30,240 Speaker 9: dealers that we saw in nineteen eighty eight. So this 372 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:33,479 Speaker 9: is so critical that everybody is playing their partner here, 373 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:36,119 Speaker 9: and if they're not, there are serious consequences in the 374 00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:39,359 Speaker 9: terms of costs the economy. It's the taxpayer and to 375 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 9: those just trying to finance their transactions in the financial system. 376 00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:47,080 Speaker 6: Alex it's a great story. I recommend everybody check it out. 377 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:52,040 Speaker 6: Treasuries fifty trillion dollar dayl usual test strained dealer pipes 378 00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:56,720 Speaker 6: and I think that was one of the coolest quotes 379 00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:59,200 Speaker 6: in the story, Casey Spizzano saying, you're trying to put 380 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:02,320 Speaker 6: more treasuries the same pipes, but those pipes aren't getting 381 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:03,240 Speaker 6: any bigger. 382 00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:05,760 Speaker 1: It's a it's a pretty great way to paint the picture. 383 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:10,280 Speaker 6: Als Harris there with the story on primary dealers, it's 384 00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:10,920 Speaker 6: our big take. 385 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:13,320 Speaker 5: Check it out when Wall Street being a primary dealer 386 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,240 Speaker 5: was a really good business, the bombable business. 387 00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:16,720 Speaker 1: Yeah. 388 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:18,000 Speaker 5: I mean when I came on the street in the 389 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 5: trading desk, the government bomb desk was the bomb. 390 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,919 Speaker 1: They had so much capital, they could swing it around. 391 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 1: They dealt with. 392 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:26,640 Speaker 6: The They could do a whole show on things that 393 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,240 Speaker 6: have changed since yes started on Wall Street. 394 00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:31,879 Speaker 3: The City l Securities really wanted to be in it. 395 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:33,600 Speaker 3: They kind of just shelved the plan. That was a 396 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:34,120 Speaker 3: huge story. 397 00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:34,760 Speaker 1: This isn't there. 398 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:40,080 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 399 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,879 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, card Playing and 400 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:45,879 Speaker 2: broyd Outo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand 401 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:50,000 Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 402 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:54,480 Speaker 3: We're going to talk about the food business here because 403 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:58,640 Speaker 3: the restaurant business never easy. Inflation, labor costs and more 404 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:01,879 Speaker 3: budget conscious cons are taking a bite out of the 405 00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,639 Speaker 3: industry's profits. Joining us now to talk about how to 406 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:07,240 Speaker 3: navigate these challenges and what's ahead for twenty twenty five. 407 00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:11,040 Speaker 3: Danny Grant. He's a two Michelin star chef and partner 408 00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:15,960 Speaker 3: at Maple Hospitality Group, the company behind Maple and Ash restaurants. 409 00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 3: You think about some of the challenges that the industry 410 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:22,160 Speaker 3: has faced, Let's start with inflation, because of course, the 411 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:27,200 Speaker 3: cost of certain goods coffee, coco have just been skyrocketing eggs. 412 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:30,960 Speaker 3: How do you get around that at a restaurant. 413 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,520 Speaker 10: Yeah, well, thank you so much, and happy New year 414 00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,159 Speaker 10: to you guys. Thanks for having me on. You know, 415 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:38,600 Speaker 10: twenty twenty four has been an incredible year for us 416 00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:41,439 Speaker 10: and really had. 417 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,760 Speaker 1: A lot of wins for us and growth and. 418 00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 10: Being able to navigate through inflation, and just like probably 419 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,120 Speaker 10: a lot of parts of the country, we're incredibly excited 420 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:52,280 Speaker 10: for what's to come in twenty twenty five. We're having 421 00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:55,359 Speaker 10: the fortunate for a lot of expansion and we're opening 422 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 10: new restaurants in Miami and other parts of the country. 423 00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:01,639 Speaker 10: So this is a part of our restaurants that we 424 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:05,239 Speaker 10: excel the best at is celebrate celebrating. So it's one 425 00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:07,320 Speaker 10: of our favorite days of the year to welcome everybody 426 00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:11,240 Speaker 10: into the restaurants and celebrate. Yeah, and to talk about, 427 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 10: you know, how we navigate some of the inflation, it's 428 00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,840 Speaker 10: really you know, we have we take a lot of 429 00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:19,359 Speaker 10: the hit on us as far as we look at 430 00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 10: being able to cover costs and you know, whether it's 431 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,919 Speaker 10: coffee to steaks the King Crab, and we pass some 432 00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:27,639 Speaker 10: of that onto the customers, but we also look at 433 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:30,960 Speaker 10: very creative ways that we're able to mitigate some of 434 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 10: those things by different cooking techniques, different style of service. 435 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 10: But one thing that we never sacrifice is the quality 436 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:42,719 Speaker 10: of the ingredients. So as you know, the restaurant business 437 00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:46,680 Speaker 10: is an ever changing, difficult operating business, but we kind 438 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:48,600 Speaker 10: of relish in those moments and have been seeing a 439 00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:49,520 Speaker 10: lot of success with it. 440 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:53,600 Speaker 5: Talk to us about your consumer. Who is your typical 441 00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:55,600 Speaker 5: consumer your restaurants, What are you targeting? 442 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:56,360 Speaker 1: Who are you targeting? 443 00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:59,760 Speaker 10: Yeah, you know, for us, we like to target a 444 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:03,919 Speaker 10: broad span of we're in neighborhoods and locations. That is, 445 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,639 Speaker 10: anything from someone that's looking to come in to have 446 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:08,960 Speaker 10: a simple piece of fish and have a beautiful night 447 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:13,560 Speaker 10: out to the much more extravagant celebratory moments of they 448 00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:16,399 Speaker 10: just closed a big deal and we're the most obvious 449 00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:19,160 Speaker 10: place to go to to to celebrate and to blow 450 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,840 Speaker 10: off all the that goes into closing a deal. So 451 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,800 Speaker 10: you know, those are some of our target people. We 452 00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 10: target foodies. We love people that want to eat and 453 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 10: drink like the same way we do, because that makes 454 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,359 Speaker 10: me happy and makes me kind of makes what we 455 00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:35,200 Speaker 10: do all worth it. 456 00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:39,480 Speaker 6: Danny, how have the How has the restaurant staff held 457 00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:42,880 Speaker 6: up in this post pandemic world? We continue to see 458 00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:47,880 Speaker 6: inflation a problem for customers, for diners and for owners 459 00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:52,399 Speaker 6: and operators. But what about you know, servers, bartenders, bus 460 00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:55,320 Speaker 6: boys have wages kept up with inflation? How is that 461 00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:56,720 Speaker 6: part of your family doing? 462 00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:00,639 Speaker 10: Yeah, I think that's a great question and great topic 463 00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:04,440 Speaker 10: because you know, without our team, we are not a restaurant. 464 00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:06,280 Speaker 10: We can't open the doors, and that's one of our 465 00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:11,200 Speaker 10: most important assets of running restaurants. Some of the things 466 00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:14,680 Speaker 10: that we've done to keep that in place is first 467 00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:17,879 Speaker 10: of all, being we have very high grossing restaurants. You know, 468 00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,400 Speaker 10: Chicago Maple Nash is one of the top grossing restaurants 469 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:22,600 Speaker 10: in the country. That gives us a little bit of 470 00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 10: extra flexibility to look at ways to be creative and 471 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:30,280 Speaker 10: take care of our team, so you know that we're 472 00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:35,040 Speaker 10: always looking at upping our wages, healthcare and then other 473 00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:38,919 Speaker 10: things that you know, we have food packages that we 474 00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,640 Speaker 10: bring to our team, We do family meals, we do parties, 475 00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:44,960 Speaker 10: and you know other things that just really help keep 476 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,159 Speaker 10: the morale the team and everybody feeling together like the 477 00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:49,400 Speaker 10: tight knit family that we are. 478 00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:52,840 Speaker 6: Great to have you on the program, Danny, thanks so 479 00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:55,520 Speaker 6: much for joining us, and we wish you a happy 480 00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,480 Speaker 6: New Year and a successful new year as well. Danny Grant, 481 00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:02,240 Speaker 6: there is to Michelin, star chef and a partner in 482 00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,040 Speaker 6: Maple Hospitality Group. 483 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:08,919 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on apples, Spotify, 484 00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:12,760 Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 485 00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,879 Speaker 2: ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 486 00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:19,439 Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 487 00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:22,639 Speaker 2: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 488 00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:24,399 Speaker 2: always on the Bloomberg terminal