1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,160 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Truth with Lisabouk, who we try to 2 00:00:02,160 --> 00:00:05,040 Speaker 1: get to heart of the issues that matter to you. Today, 3 00:00:05,080 --> 00:00:08,680 Speaker 1: we're talking to Robert Khali. He's the chief polster of 4 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: the Trafalgar Group. You know when we've seen him on Fox, 5 00:00:11,200 --> 00:00:13,280 Speaker 1: we've had him here on the podcast. Well, we're going 6 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:16,919 Speaker 1: to dig in to these big off year elections, these 7 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:19,840 Speaker 1: two gubatorial races that you've been hearing about that we've 8 00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:24,240 Speaker 1: been following in New Jersey and in Virginia. So Trafalgar 9 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:27,800 Speaker 1: basically has these races as a neck and neck contest. 10 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 1: Now a lot of people are talking about these races 11 00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 1: that they're bellwethers for what's to come next November of 12 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 1: the upcoming midterm elections. 13 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:39,199 Speaker 2: So are they. We'll talk to Robert about that. 14 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 1: We'll ask him what he thinks. 15 00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 3: We'll also talk to him about. 16 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 1: Why these races are tightening, what's going on in those states. Also, 17 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 1: we're just going to talk about the upcoming midterms as well. 18 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:52,960 Speaker 1: What do we what do we know now, where do 19 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 1: things stand in this political environment, what a President Trump's 20 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 1: approval ratings look like as well. Also, you know, as 21 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 1: we continue to head down this road of a government chetdown, 22 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 1: do you care? How much do Americans care? We'll get 23 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:08,960 Speaker 1: Robert's take on all of this and more so, stay 24 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:11,640 Speaker 1: tuned for Robert Kahally with the Trafalgar Group. 25 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:19,320 Speaker 2: Well, Robert, it's great to have you back on the podcast. 26 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 2: I'm really interested. You've had a couple of interesting polls 27 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 2: out recently on New Jersey in Virginia, so I'm very 28 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 2: interested in getting your take on the political environment today 29 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 2: and kind of where everything stands. So I appreciate you 30 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 2: making the time. 31 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:38,559 Speaker 4: Yeah, well, you know, it's first of all, just always 32 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:41,880 Speaker 4: good to be on your show. I think a lot 33 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:45,240 Speaker 4: of the listeners, not only the quantity, but the quality 34 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 4: of the people who listen to your show. The people 35 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 4: that I hear from after I've been on your show, 36 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 4: let me know a lot about the type of listeners 37 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:56,400 Speaker 4: you have. And you really do have a very in 38 00:01:56,480 --> 00:02:00,560 Speaker 4: tuned audience that I feel like a lot of decision 39 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:01,960 Speaker 4: makers are among them. 40 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 2: Well, it's very right, So I appreciate you saying that. 41 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 2: Thank you. 42 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 3: Well, it's just it's true. 43 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 4: So I don't know what as to say, but what 44 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 4: I will tell you is, uh, Virginia, it is a 45 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:15,960 Speaker 4: tale of two of two different states when it comes 46 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 4: to uh, these two races for both governor uh and 47 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:26,239 Speaker 4: the other state wives in Virginia, So what we're seeing 48 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:28,919 Speaker 4: right now is we're seeing a very very tight race 49 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 4: for governor. We We've got this thing between one and 50 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:34,120 Speaker 4: two points. 51 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:34,959 Speaker 3: Uh. 52 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:39,920 Speaker 4: It's just is very very tight and in Virginia, excuse me, 53 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 4: in New Jersey, and you know, it really is going 54 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 4: to depend a little a good bit on get out 55 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 4: the vote and how well they mobilize. But there are 56 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:56,080 Speaker 4: a lot of upset people, especially the tax issue, and 57 00:02:56,600 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 4: there's you know, there's still a lot of questions, uh, 58 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 4: about the fact that you know, the Democratic candidate, she 59 00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:08,960 Speaker 4: just she's not given enough information about where she is 60 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 4: on not releasing her. 61 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 3: Record from the Naval Academy. I mean, it's just there's. 62 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:19,800 Speaker 4: A lot of questions that's why she didn't walk and 63 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:23,520 Speaker 4: what she did or didn't do. And you know, if 64 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 4: it really is the truth that she just didn't want 65 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:29,040 Speaker 4: to rat on other people, I mean, if there's any 66 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 4: state that might respect that, it might be New Jersey. 67 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 4: Not true, Well, I just invented a lot of people. 68 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 4: But but the fact is, but if that's all it is, 69 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 4: then then you know, she won't release the documents that 70 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 4: could they could back that story up, and so that's 71 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 4: that's a real question there. 72 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 3: Uh. 73 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 4: But you know, we've got that thing right now at 74 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:53,200 Speaker 4: a one point race. I've seen some other polling that 75 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 4: hasn't much wider, but frankly, mostly the other polling that 76 00:03:57,000 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 4: hasn't much wider or poles that tend to get this 77 00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 4: thing wrong. We have the number one poll in New Jersey, 78 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:09,680 Speaker 4: in Virginia and twenty twenty one, and when I look 79 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 4: at it, I mean, you know, the other place that 80 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:16,600 Speaker 4: I mean if all the other polls out there, the 81 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:19,480 Speaker 4: ones that I thought were really good in New Jersey 82 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 4: is Emerson and Emerson had it tied. So I think 83 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:27,840 Speaker 4: there is this is a very close race. Not saying 84 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 4: the Republicans. 85 00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 3: Going to win, but I think it's. 86 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 4: One that with just a little bit of tweak either way, 87 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 4: this one could go to the Republicans. 88 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:41,600 Speaker 2: Now they say snitches can or stitches end up in ditches, right, 89 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:44,640 Speaker 2: so maybe in New Jersey. But you know, but she's 90 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:46,840 Speaker 2: also there's also been like a few missteps with her, 91 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:49,320 Speaker 2: like she had that really horrible interview with Charlottage and 92 00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 2: the God and not being able to answer world, this 93 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:54,160 Speaker 2: money's coming right, Like there just seems to be like 94 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:56,919 Speaker 2: her inability to kind of explain things. To your point, 95 00:04:57,080 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 2: you had mentioned twenty twenty one, Phil Murphy at the 96 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:05,600 Speaker 2: time against Chiarelli was favored to win by seven eight 97 00:05:05,800 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 2: seven point eight points in their Broker Politics average, but 98 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 2: only ended up beating Jack Ciarelli by two point eight points. 99 00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 2: So to your point, like, do. 100 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:15,480 Speaker 3: You think that's it? 101 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, that one, so you were accurate. So like, should 102 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:21,680 Speaker 2: you think that this is going to be you know, 103 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 2: in a couple of weeks here, I guess not even 104 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,039 Speaker 2: probably less than that we're going to find out. Is 105 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:28,560 Speaker 2: this going to be another big polling miss from people? 106 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:29,159 Speaker 2: Do you think? 107 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 4: I mean when I when I look at some of 108 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:33,520 Speaker 4: the some of these poles that are coming out showing 109 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:36,279 Speaker 4: margins at five and seven and seven, I'm I just like, 110 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 4: I don't know what they're doing. I really don't know 111 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:42,839 Speaker 4: what they're doing. I just I think it's going to 112 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:46,599 Speaker 4: be much closer me. You know, with us in Emerson 113 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:50,800 Speaker 4: it's a four point gap, and I think I think 114 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 4: it that's Real Clear is going to do a better 115 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:57,840 Speaker 4: job this time, just because Real Clear is only as 116 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:00,840 Speaker 4: good as the poll that it has it. Uh. So 117 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:02,360 Speaker 4: I mean that you know, you can't you can't blame 118 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:05,039 Speaker 4: on him moment when the when the when the polls 119 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 4: aren't so great. But no, I think that that is 120 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 4: definitely one that I think could be a a polling miss. 121 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 4: I think it's going to be closer uh than a 122 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 4: lot of these polls out there right now as. 123 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:20,960 Speaker 3: We moved to Virginia, though Virginia. 124 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 4: Our closest one, uh is we have at a three, 125 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 4: and you know it is What's what's frustrating, I think 126 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 4: as you look at it, I guess from a Republican standpoint, 127 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:40,479 Speaker 4: is that you know you've got this uh plus three 128 00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:44,520 Speaker 4: for the for uh Speckerberg, and then all of a 129 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 4: sudden when you go to Attorney General, you know we've 130 00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:53,159 Speaker 4: got a plus five uh from yeras versus Jones. So 131 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 4: there's a problem in the city you're selling this thing. 132 00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 3: It is like she's not it ought to be an 133 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:06,080 Speaker 3: easy sales pitcher. 134 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:09,360 Speaker 4: This lady says she's an independent and that you know, 135 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 4: she's just not about parties. That's your whole legislative record, 136 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 4: and the reason she has survived in years when the Republicans. 137 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:19,600 Speaker 3: Won is because she's always sold herself. 138 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 4: As kind of a middle of the road Democrat who 139 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:25,240 Speaker 4: didn't mind stepping away from party. I mean, even when 140 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 4: it came time to criticize Northum, she was first in line. 141 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 4: But somehow she's unwilling to do this with Jones, unwilling 142 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 4: to completely disavow. And I just don't think that that 143 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 4: Sears is pushing this hard enough because what we've seen 144 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 4: is the crowd that moved away from from the Democrat 145 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:56,560 Speaker 4: nominee and moved towards Sears was the over sixty fives. 146 00:07:57,200 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 4: But what I'm not seeing yet is that same movement 147 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 4: with the forty five to sixty five. And frankly, that's 148 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 4: a group that you are not going to get with 149 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 4: traditional with traditional eb ads like people watching TV and 150 00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 4: that kind of stuff versus you know, people. 151 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 3: That are unplugged that are more digital. That forty five 152 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 3: sixty five crowd is a harder crow to put a 153 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 3: message in front of. 154 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 4: And I just don't see them selling it quite the 155 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:30,160 Speaker 4: way they need to there because Member is really in 156 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:35,120 Speaker 4: a good position if she can, if she could take 157 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:38,480 Speaker 4: this issue and move beyond it, like saying, all right, 158 00:08:38,880 --> 00:08:41,320 Speaker 4: I'm tired of talking about the Attorney General and just 159 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:45,800 Speaker 4: move on from that. And the other question is does 160 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 4: who pays the price for all the shutdown stuff? I mean, 161 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:56,480 Speaker 4: because a lot of these people are the ones who 162 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 4: aren't getting. 163 00:08:57,000 --> 00:09:01,720 Speaker 2: Paychecks of workers in Virginia. 164 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:02,920 Speaker 3: Right now, don't You're wrong? 165 00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:05,800 Speaker 4: These are federal workers who know more than most people, 166 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:10,160 Speaker 4: and so who they choose to blame this shutdown on 167 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:14,000 Speaker 4: might be a more informed the decision than you would 168 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:16,880 Speaker 4: expect it to be in some of the years. I mean, 169 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 4: these people know exactly what's going on, and I mean, 170 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:22,200 Speaker 4: you know, if you say CR, they know what that means. 171 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:26,320 Speaker 4: Average America don't know what CR means, but they do. 172 00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:30,319 Speaker 4: And so the fact that Humor has never voted against 173 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 4: the CR of an against CR, now he's against one 174 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:36,320 Speaker 4: when they've got a clean one, that they might understand that. 175 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,960 Speaker 3: But it really is going to depend on how that 176 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 3: is sold. 177 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:45,040 Speaker 4: And again the tiptoeing around Trump, because what we saw 178 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 4: the last time was young and did an incredible job 179 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:52,520 Speaker 4: of leveraging Trump where he made such a difference in 180 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 4: the southern and western part of Virginia without paying the 181 00:09:57,200 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 4: price in the northern Virginia with the people who are 182 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:01,440 Speaker 4: DCN decided who didn't like him. 183 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:03,840 Speaker 3: Now, is she talented enough to that? Is her team 184 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 3: talented enough to do that? I don't know. 185 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:10,560 Speaker 4: I do know that I have not seen the level 186 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:15,040 Speaker 4: of campaign that young can put out there. I haven't 187 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 4: seen her exercise campaign like that, and I think that 188 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 4: that is something that is incredibly important and she needs 189 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:26,680 Speaker 4: to do it. And frankfully, I mean, if it were me, 190 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 4: I would be talking about the thing with Jones, and 191 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:35,959 Speaker 4: about the transgender bathroom stuff, and about parent rights and schools. 192 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 4: I mean I would just be hammering on those things. 193 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 4: But this idea of she can't be independent, she can't 194 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:45,199 Speaker 4: be courageous if she won't simply say I'm not backing 195 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 4: this guy anymore. 196 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:48,640 Speaker 3: Got to take a quick commercial break. More Robert on 197 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:49,440 Speaker 3: the other side. 198 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:54,719 Speaker 2: So we're talking about two of the big gubernatrol E 199 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 2: races this upcoming in November in Virginia between Abigail Spamberger 200 00:10:59,920 --> 00:11:02,120 Speaker 2: and the Lieutenant governor win some series. And then in 201 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:07,880 Speaker 2: New Jersey you've got Jack Ciarelli running against Representative Mikey Cheryl. 202 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:13,640 Speaker 2: You know, looking at these two states, did you think 203 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 2: it's harder in Virginia because you know, Republicans obviously have 204 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:21,280 Speaker 2: an incumbent governor who's term limited there Glenn Youngkin, Versus 205 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 2: in New Jersey, where you know, people are sort of 206 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:27,280 Speaker 2: sick and tired of Phil Murphy who's on his way out, 207 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:30,640 Speaker 2: like they want change. Do you think it's it's easier 208 00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:33,640 Speaker 2: for like Jack Cirelli maybe has like a clearer path 209 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:36,880 Speaker 2: considering he would be the change candidate in the state 210 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:37,720 Speaker 2: there in New Jersey. 211 00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:39,680 Speaker 3: I'm going to me say it this way. 212 00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 4: Looking at these two states six months out, I would 213 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 4: have said Virginia is the easier lift, but campaigns and 214 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 4: candidates matter, and today I'd rather be in New Jersey 215 00:11:59,080 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 4: than Virginia. 216 00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 2: Interesting, you know, are these two states. You know, obviously 217 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 2: a lot of people are saying that these are bell 218 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 2: weather states. I know historically that's kind of how we've 219 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 2: looked at them and these off your elections before mid 220 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 2: terms to try to get an idea what the upcoming 221 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 2: midterm elections will look like. But you know, if you 222 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:18,120 Speaker 2: go back you look at the twenty twenty four election, 223 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:23,200 Speaker 2: you know, President Trump, despite sweeping all seven swing states 224 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 2: and winning the popular vote, did lose both New Jersey 225 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:31,439 Speaker 2: and Virginia by almost six percent. Now that's a considerable 226 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:34,199 Speaker 2: drop from where Joe Biden, you know where he was 227 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 2: pulling and where he won in twenty twenty. But still like, 228 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:41,440 Speaker 2: are these bell weather races? Can you call them that 229 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 2: given the fact that you know both these states appear 230 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:47,240 Speaker 2: pretty blue, or how would you characterize them? And are 231 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 2: these bell weathers. 232 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:52,199 Speaker 4: For Republican wins in New Jersey? I think that tells 233 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:57,599 Speaker 4: people a lot if a Democrat wins in Virginia or 234 00:12:57,679 --> 00:13:05,600 Speaker 4: Republican wins, I don't. I think it speaks to Virginia 235 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 4: may be more purple, but purple outside. 236 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:11,559 Speaker 3: Of Trump. 237 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 4: Because Trump is such an anti establishment, anti swamp, anti 238 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:25,319 Speaker 4: DC insider candidate that he will never do as well 239 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 4: in Virginia than someone who has not seen that way. 240 00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:33,880 Speaker 4: It's like Trump has taken on the swamp and understands 241 00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 4: that when you take on the swamp, then you're not. 242 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 3: Going to get the swamp vote. 243 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:43,359 Speaker 4: But you know, someone is seen as a less maga 244 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 4: or maga light might very well be able to carry 245 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 4: a state like Virginia, and probably easier than a Republican 246 00:13:54,559 --> 00:13:59,839 Speaker 4: could carry New Jersey. However, if New Jersey would elect 247 00:13:59,920 --> 00:14:03,719 Speaker 4: or Republican and then like what they saw, like say 248 00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 4: Chiarelli really made a big difference, and people saw an 249 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 4: immediate you know, whether it was something to do with 250 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:14,959 Speaker 4: the tax or something like just an immediate turnaround, then 251 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 4: then I think. 252 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 3: That they could both be competitive states. 253 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 4: But I would say Glen Younkin has proven the outside 254 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 4: of an anti swamp candidate and and not not that 255 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:28,800 Speaker 4: Glen Younkin is pro swamped, but I mean he's not 256 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:31,120 Speaker 4: crucading against the swamp. 257 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:34,320 Speaker 2: It was a really good candidate, right, Like I think, 258 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:34,640 Speaker 2: you know. 259 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:37,760 Speaker 4: There is no Yeah, he's one of the best candidates 260 00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:40,400 Speaker 4: has been run for governor anywhere. 261 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, like with respect to win some series Like Glenn 262 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:44,840 Speaker 2: Younkin's just on another level. 263 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 4: Right, So it's like, yeah, she's not a Glen Youngkin. 264 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 3: I mean there's just you know, there's there's no question. 265 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 4: And and she doesn't have everything that that I can 266 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 4: see and the stories I hear are campaign isn't on 267 00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:05,640 Speaker 4: the same level as Glen Youngin And it's just there's 268 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:09,160 Speaker 4: just a level of doing things that that Glenn Youngkin, 269 00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:12,560 Speaker 4: just the way that his campaign operated. Now I do 270 00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 4: hear that Sears has a first class get out the 271 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 4: vote team, but in the end getting out the vote. 272 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:22,000 Speaker 4: All that depends on whether the candidate has sold it, 273 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 4: and at this point, I don't think that she's the 274 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 4: point where she sold it enough to get over the hump. 275 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:31,640 Speaker 4: Now she's got a little more time to sell it, 276 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 4: and she definitely got it tight when a lot of 277 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 4: people are voting early. But there's gonna be there's gonna 278 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 4: be a good number of people who are going to 279 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 4: vote in the next few weeks, and you know, we're 280 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 4: going to see where where she is. 281 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:42,920 Speaker 3: Then. 282 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:47,320 Speaker 2: I used to live in Virginia. I grew I was 283 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 2: born and raised in Virginia and used to live in 284 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 2: northern Virginia. And it's definitely it's very liberal in the state. 285 00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 2: Seems to be trending or blue. It used to have 286 00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:00,040 Speaker 2: some purple elements if I remember correctly, and now it 287 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:02,440 Speaker 2: just kind of seems like it's, you know, a little 288 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:03,480 Speaker 2: bit more of a blue state. 289 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:09,480 Speaker 4: But we'll see, because again, all we have to look 290 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 4: at and presidential is three elections with the ultimate anti 291 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:19,840 Speaker 4: swamp candidates. I mean, that's all our recent election results 292 00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 4: we got to look at. So you know, in twenty 293 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 4: twenty eight, if if we had had somebody that was 294 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:29,600 Speaker 4: you know, again Trump lighter or even somebody who was 295 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:33,040 Speaker 4: seen as you know, much more of an establishment type Republican, 296 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 4: I'm not so sure it. 297 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 3: Wouldn't move back into purple category. 298 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 4: But and I guess if I were if I were Trump, 299 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 4: I'd say being against the swamp is worth losing Virginia. 300 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:48,160 Speaker 4: And I think that's a smart thing to say. But 301 00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 4: the next candidate might not feel that way. 302 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 2: You look at j Jones, the Democrat candidate for Training 303 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:58,360 Speaker 2: General of Virginia. You know, obviously he's on record wishing 304 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:02,560 Speaker 2: for the death of a political Republican uh politician in 305 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:05,760 Speaker 2: the state, as well as his children. Just I mean, 306 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 2: it's insane. But like that, see you know that race 307 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:12,640 Speaker 2: you had mentioned where Mirus is. Now that he's up 308 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:15,679 Speaker 2: in that race, the Republican candidate who's the you know, 309 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 2: sitting attorney general right now, I guess that that just 310 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:22,760 Speaker 2: totally changed the game. And I mean that even changed 311 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 2: they were. We'll see if it impacts the top of 312 00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:27,919 Speaker 2: the ticket with the gubernatorial race, but I mean that 313 00:17:28,040 --> 00:17:30,600 Speaker 2: race has just shifted. I guess that's a good sign. 314 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:32,680 Speaker 2: Should make us all feel better than even in a 315 00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 2: you know, a seemingly blue state like Virginia that those 316 00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 2: words would matter, right, But this shift in the race 317 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 2: since those comments surfaced. 318 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:45,600 Speaker 3: I mean, it's just it just. 319 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:53,719 Speaker 4: Again, Virginia is a place where the most liberal element are, 320 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:57,840 Speaker 4: even the most middle of the road element are also 321 00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:04,600 Speaker 4: what you would say as high information voters. So that 322 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:10,040 Speaker 4: is going to completely permeate high information voters. They're going 323 00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 4: to know all the details of that scandal in a 324 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 4: way that some other states might not. There's still people, 325 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:19,800 Speaker 4: believe it or not, people who make decisions in America 326 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:24,480 Speaker 4: really don't know everything that is going on. But Virginia's 327 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:29,719 Speaker 4: not place like that, especially northern Virginia. So that's a 328 00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:33,560 Speaker 4: lot of where we saw the shift. It's like, that's 329 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:40,440 Speaker 4: not okay. And those folks, I mean, they they hear there, 330 00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:44,680 Speaker 4: and it just it is it's just kind of I mean, 331 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 4: you know, the old expression is too soon. 332 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 3: It is far too soon to be making jokes like that. 333 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:55,720 Speaker 3: It's just too soon, and it really is kind of distasteful. 334 00:18:56,680 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 4: And so I think that I think that it doesn't 335 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:04,720 Speaker 4: surprise me that that move the race so much. 336 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:06,360 Speaker 3: It's also. 337 00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:11,159 Speaker 4: There just becomes almost a bandwagon effect that people are 338 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:15,040 Speaker 4: just like, well, you know, how all the time people 339 00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:18,920 Speaker 4: are looking to kind of establish themselves that their society, 340 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:21,919 Speaker 4: you know, their social status is like they took this 341 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 4: stand in that stand, you know that this is a 342 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:27,720 Speaker 4: place somebody who kind of leans to the left can say, 343 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 4: but I'm. 344 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 3: Not for that. 345 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:33,480 Speaker 4: You know, this is where they place that little marker, well, 346 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:37,920 Speaker 4: but I'm not for that. And so that that's why 347 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:41,120 Speaker 4: this doesn't surprise me so much, because even the most 348 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:45,920 Speaker 4: middle of the road person who maybe certainly lean Democrat, 349 00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:49,640 Speaker 4: who probably would have voted Democrat for Attorney General beforehand, 350 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 4: can say, well, no, but I'm but I'm not for that, and. 351 00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:56,840 Speaker 2: Then that and then I give this all comfort because 352 00:19:56,960 --> 00:19:58,720 Speaker 2: it's been a little worrisome with some of that. So, 353 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:02,320 Speaker 2: you know, do you look at this shutdown. I think 354 00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:06,000 Speaker 2: it's the third longest shutdown today. We'll see how much 355 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 2: longer it goes on for do Americans care? Like we're 356 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:12,800 Speaker 2: I mean, obviously we're talking about the Virginia inventure race. 357 00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 2: They're more plugged in because you have a lot of 358 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 2: federal workers who are directly impacted by it, so they 359 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:19,719 Speaker 2: you know, they're they're kind of forced to pay attention 360 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:23,639 Speaker 2: to it, right But for like the rest of Americans 361 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:27,000 Speaker 2: like how much do they care? Like does this impact 362 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:29,840 Speaker 2: the political environment, or like kind of how do you 363 00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 2: see this as a poster? 364 00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 4: Well, I think that the one place we'll start to 365 00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 4: see people who will care is if it really starts 366 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:43,600 Speaker 4: to be not just a little impact, but a significant 367 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:48,639 Speaker 4: impact on plane travel, both with the TSA and the 368 00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:52,160 Speaker 4: UH and with the air traft controllers. 369 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 3: Uh. 370 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:56,119 Speaker 4: So, I think that's a place where people interact with 371 00:20:56,240 --> 00:21:00,960 Speaker 4: federal government. And then the fact that that the military 372 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:04,880 Speaker 4: is getting paid and that they're funding some some other 373 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 4: things I think was being funded. 374 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:08,840 Speaker 3: The fact that some of that's happening. 375 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:10,199 Speaker 4: Into the court and they shoot it all down, but 376 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:12,399 Speaker 4: nobody's going to go back and ask for the money 377 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 4: back for people who got money. So, you know it 378 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,359 Speaker 4: really it really depends on your interaction. And I would 379 00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:22,679 Speaker 4: tell you that most of the people who would be 380 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,600 Speaker 4: most angry about a government shut down are going to 381 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:27,959 Speaker 4: be people who was expecting a check who didn't get it, 382 00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:32,360 Speaker 4: And a lot of them aren't necessarily people who are 383 00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:35,960 Speaker 4: swing voters. I mean that that is that is in 384 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:40,000 Speaker 4: essence part of the problem with the out there is 385 00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:42,639 Speaker 4: that there's so many people who are so dependent I 386 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:48,040 Speaker 4: have seen this year after year after year, people campaigning 387 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:50,639 Speaker 4: on these people are going to cut off the checks 388 00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:51,119 Speaker 4: coming to you. 389 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:53,680 Speaker 3: And there's a segment of the population. 390 00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:56,400 Speaker 4: Who, when you say you're getting a check from the government, 391 00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:59,000 Speaker 4: it'll be less or you won't get it if this 392 00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:03,080 Speaker 4: party wins, will vote on that check. We even saw, 393 00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:05,680 Speaker 4: and I don't care what anybody who wasn't there fail 394 00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:09,960 Speaker 4: at you. In twenty twenty one, those two runoffs in Georgia, 395 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:13,840 Speaker 4: those weren't about Trump. Those were about one simple thing. 396 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 4: Mitch McConnell had said, no more money, just the seven 397 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 4: hundred dollars checks or the six hundred dollars checks, and 398 00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:26,480 Speaker 4: Schumer had said they'll get fourteen hundred more if my 399 00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:29,480 Speaker 4: two sentators went, and that is what people ran on. 400 00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:33,119 Speaker 4: They literally they were truck driving to Georgie, get your 401 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:34,240 Speaker 4: extra fourteen hundred dollars. 402 00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:35,120 Speaker 3: Elect these two. 403 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:39,199 Speaker 4: A Republican won the Public Service Commission right off. That 404 00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:42,359 Speaker 4: was owned the ballot that day. It wasn't Republicans didn't 405 00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:45,840 Speaker 4: turn out as you made Republicans choose between fourteen hundred 406 00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:49,400 Speaker 4: dollars in their pocket and voting Republican. And my rule 407 00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:53,880 Speaker 4: has always been in a democracy you should never send 408 00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,960 Speaker 4: out checks before an election. But if you break rule 409 00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:59,879 Speaker 4: number one, rule number two is you got to be 410 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,880 Speaker 4: the big number, and they weren't. Mitch McConnell said, there's 411 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:07,119 Speaker 4: no discussion these two wins. It ain't gonna happen. And 412 00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:11,000 Speaker 4: so so again, people vote their pocketbook, So the shutdown, 413 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:15,040 Speaker 4: the people whose pocketbook it hurts are gonna be the 414 00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:17,680 Speaker 4: ones most move But there are also not a lot 415 00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:19,680 Speaker 4: of swing voters that follow in that category. 416 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:24,480 Speaker 2: Where do President Trump's approval readings stand today, and how 417 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,080 Speaker 2: do you think that impacts in the terms. 418 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,880 Speaker 4: Well, we haven't we haven't done a recent approval, but uh, 419 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,440 Speaker 4: what I've seen from the you know, I mean, here's 420 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 4: the thing, it's not hard to figure. 421 00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:38,240 Speaker 3: Out who the good polsters are. Uh. 422 00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 4: All you got to do is go look at the 423 00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:43,879 Speaker 4: election results. And then everybody who was off three or 424 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:48,000 Speaker 4: four points on average just quit paying attention to their polls. 425 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:50,679 Speaker 4: And when you do that, there's not a lot of 426 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,959 Speaker 4: polsters left. And look at what they're saying, and the 427 00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:57,840 Speaker 4: ones that we see that we trust. As a matter 428 00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:01,399 Speaker 4: of fact, I'm sure probably aware of the National Association 429 00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:04,600 Speaker 4: of Independent Bolsters that we are one of the founding 430 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 4: members of all all of the members on that you 431 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,280 Speaker 4: can depend on looking at those poles and let me 432 00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:14,840 Speaker 4: run through those in case people don't know. That's of 433 00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:21,800 Speaker 4: course for Valgar Inside Advantage, Raspbution Report, Big Data poll, Kawanas, 434 00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 4: Susquehanna and John McLaughlan poland so those are ones that 435 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:28,240 Speaker 4: you can take a. 436 00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:31,640 Speaker 3: You can look at. 437 00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:35,000 Speaker 4: Those and realize that they're upper esh lined. So what 438 00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:36,920 Speaker 4: we see out of most of those is pretty close 439 00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:41,200 Speaker 4: to even. And you know, the midterms, I'll give you 440 00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:45,760 Speaker 4: some give everybody else there. The midterms are going to 441 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:48,879 Speaker 4: be No matter what anybody tells you, the truth is 442 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:52,280 Speaker 4: they're going to be about the economy. We're going to 443 00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:56,640 Speaker 4: have many I mean with the FED chief leaving in May, 444 00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:00,960 Speaker 4: there will be many FED meetings after that. And if 445 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,680 Speaker 4: they continue to lower the interest rate and the housing 446 00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:07,840 Speaker 4: market explodes, which I think it will, if at the 447 00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:12,320 Speaker 4: same time a lot of these new onshore jobs that 448 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:15,359 Speaker 4: they had to build or expand factories, they're going to 449 00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:17,480 Speaker 4: be hiring it. So I think the unemployment rate is 450 00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:20,920 Speaker 4: going to be low. And if the economy is humming 451 00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:25,840 Speaker 4: like lower interest rates and more jobs can make it hum. 452 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:30,400 Speaker 4: I think the Republicans will be in great shape. But 453 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:34,480 Speaker 4: if the economy is bad, then I think they won't 454 00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:36,600 Speaker 4: be in great shape. And so a lot of this 455 00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,239 Speaker 4: is out of the control right now. I mean, I 456 00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:41,639 Speaker 4: know we're going to have all these redistricting in these 457 00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:46,400 Speaker 4: certain states, and the fact is the Republicans have mandered 458 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,920 Speaker 4: a lot less of the Democrats, way more Republican states 459 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,760 Speaker 4: that can redo theirs. I remember watching Meet the Press 460 00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:58,480 Speaker 4: and you know, you had the governor of Illinois, pritzkre 461 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 4: on there talking all that, and then I was actually 462 00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,720 Speaker 4: really really happy to see welcome call him out and go, 463 00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:08,040 Speaker 4: wait a minute. You know, Trump got thirty percent of 464 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 4: the vote, and you know you've got a two or 465 00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:14,320 Speaker 4: three congressmen, like you're the most German estate in the country. 466 00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:17,200 Speaker 4: You in Massachusetts. It's like she called him out on 467 00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:19,560 Speaker 4: it. It's like, who are you to be talking about jerremandering? 468 00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,960 Speaker 4: And that's the truth. They're all that their states are 469 00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:25,760 Speaker 4: so much more. I mean, what, Trump got thirty percent 470 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:29,200 Speaker 4: of the vote Massachusetts and they have zero Republican congressmen. 471 00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,400 Speaker 3: So again, those you know. 472 00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:35,080 Speaker 4: Those will those will make a difference in a House 473 00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:38,919 Speaker 4: that comes down to three or four five votes. But 474 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:43,040 Speaker 4: the fact is a good economy is going to swing everything. 475 00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:45,840 Speaker 4: I can tell you right now. I've done a lot 476 00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:49,560 Speaker 4: of study on this. Without the Row versus Way verdict, 477 00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:51,720 Speaker 4: you would have what you had in a lot of 478 00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:53,679 Speaker 4: states in twenty twenty two. There were a lot of 479 00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:56,320 Speaker 4: states that it was a massive red waves. But in 480 00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:59,120 Speaker 4: the states where the Democrats built a big machine where 481 00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:02,600 Speaker 4: they had a state wide race, they utilized that abortion 482 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:06,160 Speaker 4: ruling or jobs to scare people on what would be 483 00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:08,320 Speaker 4: it was the scare tactics. 484 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:09,879 Speaker 3: By twenty twenty four. 485 00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,200 Speaker 4: Most people lived in a state where they were comfortable 486 00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:14,520 Speaker 4: with their abortion laws and it didn't play the role 487 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:16,639 Speaker 4: with it. But in twenty twenty two, nobody knew what 488 00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:20,159 Speaker 4: was going to happen. The ruling was too new and 489 00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:24,240 Speaker 4: so the scare tactics weren't. But again, the economy was good. 490 00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:29,600 Speaker 4: The economy was not as bad and affecting things. Because 491 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,840 Speaker 4: the economy was bad and people were trying to want 492 00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:36,119 Speaker 4: of the Republicans and save that abortion wing, the Republicans 493 00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:37,440 Speaker 4: would have massive pickups. 494 00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:38,960 Speaker 3: And I think it's the same way. 495 00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,720 Speaker 4: If the economy is bad, they'll want to switch parties 496 00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:43,640 Speaker 4: and go back to the Democrats, and the economy is good, 497 00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,720 Speaker 4: I think the Republicans have an excellent chance of holding own. 498 00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:51,560 Speaker 4: So all the tactics out there are fine, but frankly, 499 00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:56,720 Speaker 4: more fed meetings and getting those jobs cycled up. 500 00:27:57,359 --> 00:27:59,040 Speaker 3: What's going to make the difference. 501 00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:03,440 Speaker 2: It always comes down to the economy, doesn't it. 502 00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:05,240 Speaker 3: It does in so many ways. 503 00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:09,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, like I said, but and less there's 504 00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:12,840 Speaker 4: something that the charges ahead, and in twenty twenty two 505 00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:14,000 Speaker 4: that was the Dobs ruling. 506 00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:15,359 Speaker 3: That ruling doesn't happen. 507 00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:19,359 Speaker 4: The Republicans pick up such a massive number that I 508 00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:21,960 Speaker 4: don't think Joe Biden would have been able to run. 509 00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:22,399 Speaker 3: For re election. 510 00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:24,600 Speaker 1: We've got to take a quick commercial break. If you 511 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:26,919 Speaker 1: like what you're hearing, please send to your family or 512 00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:27,560 Speaker 1: maybe said. 513 00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:32,320 Speaker 2: It to a friend or post on social media. Well 514 00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:36,240 Speaker 2: you've also got you know, obviously we've got the redistricts 515 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,680 Speaker 2: and stuff that we're still waiting to see what happens 516 00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:42,520 Speaker 2: with that. But you know, there's also like I think 517 00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:47,040 Speaker 2: thirteen Democrats running in state in district that Trump won, 518 00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:53,160 Speaker 2: whereas I think there are only three Republicans running in 519 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:57,200 Speaker 2: states that that Kamala Harris won. 520 00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:02,840 Speaker 4: So let's remember this, Even twenty four we got four 521 00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:08,480 Speaker 4: states that Trump won and the Republicans lost Senate race. Frankly, 522 00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:13,320 Speaker 4: that's unacceptable. Yeah, that is a ball dropped. That that 523 00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:18,600 Speaker 4: is ridiculous and that should have never happened, and that 524 00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:22,160 Speaker 4: the Republicans got out smarted with people running. I think Wisconsin, 525 00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:25,880 Speaker 4: they created a party called the Maga Party, which got 526 00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:27,920 Speaker 4: enough votes to be the difference in that race, and 527 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:30,920 Speaker 4: they played all kinds of games which kind of proved 528 00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:32,800 Speaker 4: the Democrats would thinking about one of those races a 529 00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:36,760 Speaker 4: year in advance, Republicans were playing catch up. Republicans had 530 00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:40,080 Speaker 4: four very good candidates. Don't let anybody blame that on 531 00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:45,800 Speaker 4: those candidates. No, that was a structure problem and there's 532 00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,880 Speaker 4: nowhere around that, and that that was that they just 533 00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,080 Speaker 4: didn't build the machine the way they should have built it. 534 00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:54,960 Speaker 4: There's no excuse for Trump winning as especially as large 535 00:29:54,960 --> 00:30:01,640 Speaker 4: as he did in Arizona and uh and Nevada to 536 00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:05,800 Speaker 4: lose those races. Just just so, just because Trump won 537 00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:09,440 Speaker 4: something doesn't mean the apparatus is there. You know, I 538 00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:15,640 Speaker 4: think we still see there's still a lot Republicans still 539 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:16,240 Speaker 4: have a lot of. 540 00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:19,960 Speaker 3: Spending that doesn't win election. That makes people rich well. 541 00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:22,400 Speaker 2: And Trump's such a unique candidate. So to your point, 542 00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:26,840 Speaker 2: you know that doesn't always necessarily get passed on to 543 00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 2: the Republican running in that race. 544 00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:32,560 Speaker 3: I think it can, but I think they've got to 545 00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:33,880 Speaker 3: do the work to make it happen. 546 00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:37,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, and again losing out to somebody who got on 547 00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,160 Speaker 4: the ballot as a MAGA candidate with the literally the 548 00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:45,320 Speaker 4: term magot beside their name, that's not the way, you know. 549 00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:50,360 Speaker 4: I mean that that happening Wisconsin, and that that was 550 00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:54,040 Speaker 4: somebody not handling the stuff right a year out before 551 00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:55,640 Speaker 4: there was even Republican nominee. 552 00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:58,200 Speaker 3: So again I put that on the structure. 553 00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:04,320 Speaker 2: Well, Robert Cohawley, we will be watching this November. The 554 00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:06,479 Speaker 2: race is there. We'll see what happens in New Jersey 555 00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:09,280 Speaker 2: and Virginia and would love to have you back as 556 00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:12,200 Speaker 2: we head into the midterms and things start picking it. 557 00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:16,480 Speaker 2: Obviously we're a little far out right now, but you know, 558 00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:18,080 Speaker 2: we'd love to have you on to keep us updated 559 00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:20,400 Speaker 2: as we pay attention to it. Always appreciate your insight. 560 00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:22,840 Speaker 4: What is a pleasure to be on your show and 561 00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:25,600 Speaker 4: think to your your holly intelligent audience. 562 00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:27,880 Speaker 3: So thank you those. 563 00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:31,640 Speaker 1: Robert Cohally, cheap pollster of the Tialgro Group. Appreciate him 564 00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:33,800 Speaker 1: for making the time to come on the show. Appreciate 565 00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:36,240 Speaker 1: you guys at home for listening every Tuesday and Thursday, 566 00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:37,480 Speaker 1: but you can listen throughout the week. 567 00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:39,000 Speaker 2: I also want to thank John Cassi and. 568 00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:40,360 Speaker 1: My producer for putting the show together. 569 00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:41,200 Speaker 2: Until next time.