WEBVTT - Super Bowl LVI Preview (Ep. 154) 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:15.200 It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. 0:00:15.800 --> 0:00:18.200 Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros and is met Joey 0:00:18.239 --> 0:00:21.320 p joe Pisapia with me as always as Scott Bogman, 0:00:21.400 --> 0:00:24.799 and it's you and today it's all about the big 0:00:24.880 --> 0:00:29.840 game this Sundays, the super Bowl, the Rams, the Bengals. 0:00:29.920 --> 0:00:31.920 I'm gonna do the whole show in this voice. No 0:00:32.000 --> 0:00:35.000 I'm not, but it's it's going to be a great game. 0:00:35.040 --> 0:00:38.560 We've got some fresh blood in there, some great narratives. 0:00:39.040 --> 0:00:41.360 We're gonna break it all down for you today. We've 0:00:41.360 --> 0:00:43.839 had a week to think about it, and I like that. 0:00:43.920 --> 0:00:46.080 I like to step away a little bit. We kind 0:00:46.080 --> 0:00:48.560 of talked on a little bit, gave our first impressions, 0:00:48.800 --> 0:00:50.879 but now we've had a full week to step back 0:00:50.920 --> 0:00:53.959 and analyze this game. And before Scott Bogman and I 0:00:54.040 --> 0:00:56.600 do break into all of that, I want to remind 0:00:56.640 --> 0:01:00.000 everybody we've got some amazing things going here at Betting Pros, 0:01:00.480 --> 0:01:04.320 including bet mgm offer, which is out there for new 0:01:04.400 --> 0:01:08.200 users ten dollars on any event and you can win 0:01:08.240 --> 0:01:10.800 one hundred and fifty dollars in free bets regardless of 0:01:10.800 --> 0:01:13.080 the outcome and against it's any event. It can be 0:01:13.120 --> 0:01:15.000 the super Bowl this weekend, or anything you want to 0:01:15.040 --> 0:01:17.320 put in there. 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As we have now stepped back 0:01:45.520 --> 0:01:47.800 after a week, have you had a little time to 0:01:47.920 --> 0:01:50.400 kind of clear your thoughts and are your thoughts now 0:01:50.440 --> 0:01:53.960 assembled for the big game this Sunday thoughts assemble? 0:01:54.520 --> 0:01:58.280 Yeah, they've come together. I'm ready to talk about the 0:01:58.320 --> 0:02:01.120 Super Bowl and it's gonna be a good one. Like 0:02:01.120 --> 0:02:03.040 you said, we got half new blood in there with 0:02:03.200 --> 0:02:06.760 the Bengals. It's been four years since the Rams were 0:02:06.920 --> 0:02:09.280 in the Super Bowl and they are back. Obviously, Matt 0:02:09.280 --> 0:02:11.280 Stafford has never been there. A couple of the guys 0:02:11.280 --> 0:02:14.760 never been there. Odell von Miller has experienced those Super 0:02:14.800 --> 0:02:18.440 Bowl MVP. So yeah, it's a little bit of a 0:02:18.480 --> 0:02:21.560 mixed bag as far as experience goes. But it's gonna 0:02:21.600 --> 0:02:23.440 it should be a great game. I think it's going 0:02:23.480 --> 0:02:26.000 to be a tight one, which you know, can lead 0:02:26.080 --> 0:02:28.520 us one way or the other here, So I'm excited 0:02:28.520 --> 0:02:29.240 to talk about it. 0:02:29.480 --> 0:02:31.560 Well, I put together a little tail of the tape here. 0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:35.680 So here we go Rams versus Bengals here. No, Michael 0:02:35.720 --> 0:02:38.160 Buffer intro, I'm not going to do that. Not gonna 0:02:38.160 --> 0:02:39.880 do that. Let's get ready to rumble. That's tight. 0:02:40.080 --> 0:02:41.680 I mean, whe he sue you if you do it. 0:02:41.720 --> 0:02:42.720 I think it's a whole thing. 0:02:42.840 --> 0:02:45.040 Right, Well, then I shouldn't have even just said it. 0:02:45.080 --> 0:02:47.440 Then we're well, you can say let's get ready to rumble, 0:02:47.440 --> 0:02:49.079 but you can't say it. I can't say boys to 0:02:49.600 --> 0:02:52.920 start anything. I think I think that's might have a 0:02:52.960 --> 0:02:53.640 copyright on that. 0:02:53.960 --> 0:02:56.200 Well, then we're gonna avoid that at all costs. Instead, 0:02:56.240 --> 0:02:58.600 let's look at the records between these two teams for 0:02:58.639 --> 0:03:01.160 the twenty twenty one season, and what we have is 0:03:01.240 --> 0:03:04.040 the Rams, who are twelve and five. The Bengals were 0:03:04.080 --> 0:03:07.960 ten and seven the offensive rank. The Rams were ranked 0:03:08.000 --> 0:03:10.320 ninth in the league in offense. The Bengal is actually thirteenth. 0:03:10.400 --> 0:03:13.040 Better than you might think, Boys and girls. The defense 0:03:13.080 --> 0:03:16.000 the fifteenth ranked Rams versus the seventeenth ranked Bengals also 0:03:16.160 --> 0:03:18.720 very tight. This is the difference maker for me, and 0:03:18.720 --> 0:03:20.239 you kind of touched on it with von Miller a 0:03:20.240 --> 0:03:23.480 little bit, which is players with Super Bowl experience ten 0:03:23.560 --> 0:03:25.840 for the Rams won for the Bengals. So although the 0:03:25.960 --> 0:03:27.680 Rams were in the Super Bowl a few years ago, 0:03:27.720 --> 0:03:29.839 this is a very different turnouts team. Yeah, a ton 0:03:29.880 --> 0:03:33.080 of turnover, but some of the key pieces still there. 0:03:33.280 --> 0:03:36.160 Guys like Cooper Cup, guys like Aaron Donald, and of 0:03:36.160 --> 0:03:38.480 course you've got, as you're saying, players who have come 0:03:38.480 --> 0:03:41.840 in with Super Bowl experience, like von Miller. It feels like, 0:03:42.240 --> 0:03:44.560 and especially from the Rams point of view, McVeigh said, 0:03:44.600 --> 0:03:47.400 you know, there was something where we really didn't have 0:03:47.440 --> 0:03:49.280 that experience, and we thought it wasn't gonna be a 0:03:49.280 --> 0:03:51.520 big deal, and then it turned out to be how 0:03:51.600 --> 0:03:53.400 much weight in stock do you put in that from 0:03:53.440 --> 0:03:53.840 the get go. 0:03:54.400 --> 0:03:56.440 I put a little into that, and I think it's 0:03:56.520 --> 0:04:00.240 more to me, it's less about the players. I think 0:04:00.280 --> 0:04:02.120 every single time they go to the Super Bowl, unless 0:04:02.120 --> 0:04:05.720 you're Tom Brady and the Patriots, you know, you know, 0:04:05.840 --> 0:04:08.680 because you have to deal with media day and you know, 0:04:08.920 --> 0:04:11.640 all just so many people want a piece of anyone 0:04:11.720 --> 0:04:14.600 who is involved in the Super Bowl at all, Right, 0:04:14.680 --> 0:04:17.479 so you're getting pulled in a bunch of different directions. 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:20.120 Every single one of your family members wants tickets. Like 0:04:20.440 --> 0:04:22.440 you know, we've heard all these same stories over and 0:04:22.520 --> 0:04:23.960 over from the players. I think it's more for the 0:04:23.960 --> 0:04:26.240 coaching staff because these are the guys that have to 0:04:26.240 --> 0:04:29.200 get you organized. So I think if they've gone through before, 0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:33.160 like McVeigh has, it's better for them. I mean, Taylor's been, 0:04:33.800 --> 0:04:36.680 you know, an assistant to the Super Bowl too, so 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:39.279 he knows, you know. I think he was on that 0:04:39.360 --> 0:04:42.840 staff when they went four years ago for Sean McVay, right, 0:04:42.920 --> 0:04:46.120 So these guys know how to do it. They have 0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:49.279 a little experience in making the schedule, dealing with it 0:04:49.360 --> 0:04:52.279 all that stuff. So you know, it's just getting through 0:04:52.279 --> 0:04:54.400 that and then getting into the game and not letting 0:04:54.400 --> 0:04:56.080 that stuff play into the game. The game is still 0:04:56.120 --> 0:04:59.440 the game, right, regardless of the people in the stadium, 0:05:00.080 --> 0:05:02.120 everybody else there, The game is still the game, so 0:05:02.440 --> 0:05:04.040 way more on the line. Everybody's going to be a 0:05:04.040 --> 0:05:06.240 little bit nervous to start, of course, but I think 0:05:06.279 --> 0:05:08.360 once they go out there and start hitting like normal, 0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:10.720 that stuff kind of shies way and they go back 0:05:10.720 --> 0:05:11.480 to playing football. 0:05:12.000 --> 0:05:15.839 Well to that point too. Sean McVay and obviously Taylor 0:05:15.960 --> 0:05:18.000 on the same staff there a few years in that 0:05:18.040 --> 0:05:21.159 Super Bowl. So what do you make of that, The 0:05:21.279 --> 0:05:24.599 familiarity between these two coaches knowing each other, working together, 0:05:24.720 --> 0:05:27.880 one being hired by the other. And sometimes that can 0:05:27.920 --> 0:05:30.880 be overrated. But sometimes we've seen that, I mean, whether 0:05:30.880 --> 0:05:33.040 it be Mike Rabol at times kind of sticking it 0:05:33.040 --> 0:05:35.599 to his mentor Bill Belichick in the playoffs a couple 0:05:35.600 --> 0:05:38.960 of years ago. We've seen this happened a few different times. 0:05:39.000 --> 0:05:41.120 While sometimes the student becomes the teacher. 0:05:41.440 --> 0:05:44.599 Remember the biggest one was when you know, John Gruden 0:05:44.680 --> 0:05:48.280 left Oakland Raiders then went to Tampa Bay. 0:05:48.200 --> 0:05:50.760 Right, and the Raiders didn't play that. It didn't change 0:05:50.760 --> 0:05:54.479 the playbook, That's the unbelievable thing. Didn't change the playbook 0:05:54.800 --> 0:05:57.840 or the signal calls. And they basically remember when. 0:05:57.760 --> 0:06:00.760 It was happening, like the you know, the NFL film 0:06:00.800 --> 0:06:03.599 stuff at halftime in John Lynch going, I've never had 0:06:03.680 --> 0:06:08.600 practice matter more than this week because Gruden was like 0:06:08.640 --> 0:06:11.880 impersonating rich Gannon and all that stuff. You're not gonna 0:06:11.880 --> 0:06:14.119 get down to that, right, I mean, you had different 0:06:14.200 --> 0:06:17.480 quarterback when Taylor was with the Rams still anyway, so 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:20.200 you're not gonna get down to that level. And there's 0:06:20.200 --> 0:06:22.760 no way McVeigh doesn't change up enough to where the 0:06:22.800 --> 0:06:25.320 defense is gonna you know, you're not gonna be calling 0:06:25.360 --> 0:06:26.760 out plays and stuff like that. 0:06:26.880 --> 0:06:28.360 I think mcvay's too smart for that. 0:06:28.440 --> 0:06:31.000 So there's a little bit of familiarity, but I don't 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:33.039 think you know, I don't think. 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:35.040 It lends one way or the other in this game. 0:06:35.120 --> 0:06:38.160 So it's kind of like trends, Like like I like trends, 0:06:38.279 --> 0:06:42.000 but sometimes trends can get a little overblown, especially Super 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:44.160 Bowl trends. People want to look into it and they're like, well, 0:06:44.160 --> 0:06:47.039 look the last ten years. What does a Super Bowl 0:06:47.080 --> 0:06:49.800 ten years ago have to do with this game? 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:56.200 Nothing to do with biggest waste of space, content filler nonsense. 0:06:56.279 --> 0:06:59.320 When people look back, it's huge. I'm sorry, it just is. 0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:01.200 At the end of the day, you have to analyze 0:07:01.240 --> 0:07:05.320 this game. These players, right, what you've seen recently, what 0:07:05.400 --> 0:07:07.160 you think they're capable of in this scenario. 0:07:07.320 --> 0:07:10.800 And I think trends are more I think they're better 0:07:10.880 --> 0:07:14.080 with the mindset coming in right, Like if you've lost 0:07:14.120 --> 0:07:16.240 ten games in a row to Cincinnati in. 0:07:16.320 --> 0:07:19.200 Season in season, Yes, like the trend of San Francisco 0:07:19.240 --> 0:07:21.640 continuously beating up on the rams. And then we talked 0:07:21.640 --> 0:07:22.960 about that trend a couple of weeks ago. It was like, 0:07:23.080 --> 0:07:26.360 certain trends are unsustainable. You're not gonna be a team seven, eight, nine, 0:07:26.440 --> 0:07:28.040 ten times. It's just not gonna happen. 0:07:28.200 --> 0:07:30.680 But that's why you gonna pay attention to those trends 0:07:30.680 --> 0:07:33.680 that much. You're right, is exactly like that something happens, 0:07:33.680 --> 0:07:35.720 Like you know, you lost six in a row to 0:07:36.160 --> 0:07:38.600 the Niners and then beat them in the NFC Championship. 0:07:38.720 --> 0:07:42.000 You know it is a tight game, probably should have lost, Targe, 0:07:42.040 --> 0:07:42.640 should pick that. 0:07:42.600 --> 0:07:46.480 Ball off, but you know it's not the way it goos. 0:07:46.720 --> 0:07:50.240 So that's why I don't, you know, really get granular 0:07:50.320 --> 0:07:53.280 with those trends, especially you know, the longer they are, 0:07:53.360 --> 0:07:55.440 the longer they are, the less they mean. 0:07:55.520 --> 0:07:58.560 I think I think application of the trends is more important. 0:07:58.640 --> 0:08:01.760 If I may it's you know, when I while on 0:08:01.760 --> 0:08:05.120 this very show, Dan and I were talking about that game, 0:08:05.160 --> 0:08:07.200 and that was my lock of the week with San Francisco, 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:09.240 you know, weeks and weeks back in the season, the 0:08:09.240 --> 0:08:11.480 second time around, beating the Rams again, because I had 0:08:11.520 --> 0:08:13.320 seen where the Rams were at, how they were playing, 0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:15.000 how the Ford Nites were playing, and then you and 0:08:15.080 --> 0:08:16.400 I were doing this show a couple weeks ago, and 0:08:16.440 --> 0:08:18.520 I said, the Rams are gonna find a way to 0:08:18.560 --> 0:08:20.520 win this football game after beating tom Brady the way 0:08:20.520 --> 0:08:24.080 they did. There's too much momentum there, There's too much belief. 0:08:24.360 --> 0:08:26.640 This is the exercising of the demons. If you can 0:08:26.680 --> 0:08:29.040 exercise the Tom Brady demon and then turn around the 0:08:29.040 --> 0:08:31.320 next week and finally have a chance to beat this 0:08:31.360 --> 0:08:33.480 team that has pounded you six times in a row, 0:08:33.600 --> 0:08:35.520 you're gonna take the most out of that, and you're 0:08:35.520 --> 0:08:37.880 gonna take that opportunity and you're gonna take it for 0:08:37.920 --> 0:08:40.360 all it's worth. And they did, to their credit, which 0:08:40.400 --> 0:08:42.960 brings us now to the game. And if you go 0:08:43.080 --> 0:08:46.160 over to bettingpros dot com and you look at the 0:08:46.280 --> 0:08:48.439 NFL matchups, of course we've got that match up there. 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:51.120 There's only one NFL matchup left, it's gonna give you 0:08:51.160 --> 0:08:54.880 the consensus of where everyone is in terms of where 0:08:54.880 --> 0:08:57.559 the money's being put, what the percentage is, which is 0:08:57.600 --> 0:08:59.360 really useful, so you can get an idea of what 0:08:59.400 --> 0:09:01.320 the board looks so like and how other people see 0:09:01.360 --> 0:09:04.079 the board in the consensus and the betting world. And 0:09:04.240 --> 0:09:06.320 right now we are still with the same exact number 0:09:06.320 --> 0:09:08.280 that we were last week, four and a half right now, 0:09:08.440 --> 0:09:11.000 so the consensus line is still four and a half four. 0:09:11.120 --> 0:09:13.280 Of course, the Los Angeles Rams, who are also a 0:09:13.280 --> 0:09:15.320 home team playing at home. Bogs and I discussed this 0:09:15.400 --> 0:09:18.040 last week. We don't put too much stock in this either, 0:09:18.120 --> 0:09:20.120 because it's a home game for the Rams, which is 0:09:20.120 --> 0:09:22.360 not a huge fan base. They're a team that just 0:09:22.400 --> 0:09:25.680 moved recently. Los Angeles is not a great pro football town. 0:09:25.960 --> 0:09:29.120 It's where the NFL offices are located. And on top 0:09:29.160 --> 0:09:32.400 of which there's gonna be a lot of elitist people 0:09:32.440 --> 0:09:35.040 there more than usual because it's La. You know, not 0:09:35.120 --> 0:09:37.439 everybody wants to get a play and fly to Indianapolis 0:09:37.440 --> 0:09:39.880 in February, but you want to go to La. Yeah, 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:41.360 I want to go to LA and hang out and 0:09:41.360 --> 0:09:44.240 see movie stars. Oh, there's Leo DiCaprio. Oh look, there's 0:09:44.840 --> 0:09:47.320 you know, Chris Evans is like, yeah, okay, that's cool. 0:09:47.600 --> 0:09:50.319 You know Indianapolis, No, no offense Indianapolis. I mean even 0:09:50.360 --> 0:09:53.520 New Orleans. It's a fun down, eat, drink, be merry. 0:09:53.559 --> 0:09:56.120 There's different locations. Nobody wants to go in New York 0:09:56.160 --> 0:09:58.920 in February, that's for damn sure. But I think even 0:09:58.920 --> 0:10:00.960 though it's a home game, it's we're just familiarity with 0:10:01.000 --> 0:10:02.439 the turf and sleeping in your own bed at the 0:10:02.520 --> 0:10:03.000 end of the day. 0:10:03.200 --> 0:10:06.600 Yeah, that's it, right, Yeah, getting your same locker room, 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:09.200 your same security people, the same parking lot, you get 0:10:09.240 --> 0:10:11.600 to sleep in your bed. Like you said that all, 0:10:12.320 --> 0:10:15.080 you know, lends a little bit towards the rams. 0:10:15.080 --> 0:10:17.120 Of course, that's stress of travel. I mean the travel 0:10:17.200 --> 0:10:19.720 is a big stress. And you mentioned before the family 0:10:19.760 --> 0:10:21.679 asking for tickets, all these things going on. That's a 0:10:21.679 --> 0:10:22.120 big deal. 0:10:22.280 --> 0:10:26.440 But the travel together can can be nice too because 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:29.000 it brings your teammates, you know, it brings you closer 0:10:29.040 --> 0:10:31.960 as teammates. And that's two weeks of that stuff too, 0:10:32.120 --> 0:10:35.000 of kind of you know, going through it and bonding, 0:10:35.080 --> 0:10:35.920 not like they haven't had it. 0:10:35.960 --> 0:10:36.760 The whole season, but. 0:10:36.720 --> 0:10:39.960 It's just different when all this pressure is on those 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:44.840 guys together. So yeah, I'm I mean, so I we 0:10:44.920 --> 0:10:48.520 obviously saw Tampa Bay win, and I'm sure everyone saw 0:10:48.600 --> 0:10:52.480 the dumb meme of you know, the we're gonna host 0:10:52.520 --> 0:10:54.760 it in Dullas every year moving forward so no team 0:10:54.800 --> 0:10:56.760 ever gets a home game, you know, all that crap. 0:10:57.160 --> 0:10:59.720 So yeah, I mean it means a little bit, but 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:02.520 it will ultimately not be the deciding factor in the 0:11:02.559 --> 0:11:03.600 super Bowl in my opinion. 0:11:04.080 --> 0:11:06.400 All right, I want to talk to you now because 0:11:06.760 --> 0:11:08.920 this is it, Bogs. We've had the time for everything 0:11:08.960 --> 0:11:10.440 to sink in, and as. 0:11:10.320 --> 0:11:13.560 We passed the Pro Ball, everyone to it all. 0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:16.079 Yeah, definitely not just watching the Senior Ball and Shrine 0:11:16.080 --> 0:11:18.320 Ball this week everyone. I mean, I didn't see one 0:11:18.960 --> 0:11:21.040 second of the Pro Ball. I mean, it's the most 0:11:21.080 --> 0:11:22.800 worthless things neither. 0:11:22.840 --> 0:11:25.000 But the tweet of the week is definitely Kyle Pitts, 0:11:25.120 --> 0:11:27.440 who said it's nice to score a touchdown in America. 0:11:27.720 --> 0:11:29.800 This is my first professional touchdown in America. I thought 0:11:29.800 --> 0:11:31.240 that was a tweet of the week, man. I love that. 0:11:31.240 --> 0:11:32.080 That was so funny. 0:11:32.080 --> 0:11:32.240 Man. 0:11:33.440 --> 0:11:36.439 But look, you know, there's obviously lots of opportunities here. 0:11:36.440 --> 0:11:38.080 This is the Super Bowl. And for those people who 0:11:38.120 --> 0:11:41.880 don't even necessarily, you know, go crazy on the wagering side, 0:11:41.880 --> 0:11:43.559 but they want to try a little bit, this is 0:11:43.559 --> 0:11:45.600 a great opportunity because if you go to bettingpros dot 0:11:45.600 --> 0:11:48.880 com slash offers right now, we've got a ton of 0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:52.560 different varieties from all these different wagering houses. Everything is 0:11:52.600 --> 0:11:54.720 twenty dollars or less. You can put ten dollars on 0:11:54.800 --> 0:11:57.920 this team, twenty dollars here, five dollars investment and just 0:11:57.960 --> 0:11:59.440 have a little fun and get a little actions. You 0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:01.280 have a little ex ext on the game. And that 0:12:01.480 --> 0:12:04.680 is for you at bettingpros dot com slash Offers again, 0:12:04.679 --> 0:12:07.120 that's bettingpros dot com slash offers. You can go there 0:12:07.320 --> 0:12:09.080 and there's a ton to choose from. So find the 0:12:09.080 --> 0:12:10.640 one that works in your state, find the one that 0:12:10.679 --> 0:12:13.080 works for you, whatever kind of investment you want to make. 0:12:13.120 --> 0:12:15.160 Because I'm like, you know, I say this even last week. 0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:17.200 You know, we talked about two weeks ago, the best 0:12:17.200 --> 0:12:19.960 bet on the board I thought was, hey, pluck down 0:12:20.000 --> 0:12:22.600 eleven dollars and seventy cents and you're gonna win one 0:12:22.640 --> 0:12:24.559 hundred eleven dollars if the Bengals win the Super Bowl 0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:26.920 a plus eight fifty And guess what that went from 0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:29.200 a one and four chance to a coin flip right 0:12:29.240 --> 0:12:30.439 now for y'all. So that's yeah. 0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:34.320 I've gotten so many bragging texts from Doe about his 0:12:34.400 --> 0:12:37.240 Cincinnati Bengals Super Bowl pick. I got like, I didn't 0:12:37.240 --> 0:12:39.880 respond to the first one, so then I got another. 0:12:39.559 --> 0:12:41.640 One a little bit later, and I'm like, oh, I'm 0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:42.120 gonna I. 0:12:42.160 --> 0:12:43.640 Said, this is the best bet on the board. And 0:12:43.720 --> 0:12:45.520 here's the thing. Even though it's the best bet on 0:12:45.559 --> 0:12:48.199 the board, I don't think it's going to come true. 0:12:48.559 --> 0:12:51.720 So that spoiler alert, I hope boilers. 0:12:51.800 --> 0:12:54.199 Yeah, I want it to I hope it doesn't. 0:12:54.280 --> 0:12:56.840 But here's here's where I've come to after this week 0:12:57.080 --> 0:12:59.080 of looking through this, and we're gonna start here with 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:02.319 the money line here, which is right now minus two 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:05.000 hundred for the Los Angeles Rams, plus one sixty five 0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:08.040 for Cincinnati. I truly believe at this point in time, 0:13:09.080 --> 0:13:11.240 as I've had more time to really step back look 0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:13.520 at this game. Let all the heat from the championship 0:13:13.520 --> 0:13:18.479 games dissipate. You win football games upfront. The biggest deficits 0:13:18.840 --> 0:13:21.640 of the Cincinnati Bengals also happen to be the biggest 0:13:21.679 --> 0:13:25.120 strengths of the Rams. The pass rush upfront, the bad 0:13:25.120 --> 0:13:28.720 offensive line, and of course the cornerback play of Eli Apple. 0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:31.319 And the best wide receiver on the planet right now 0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:34.400 is Cooper Cup. I mean, you can argue it's DeVante Adams, 0:13:34.400 --> 0:13:37.640 but you all see where I'm coming. Jamar Chase in 0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:41.960 that mix too, but Cooper Cup has been unbelievable. Those 0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:45.439 two things bring me to this conclusion, which I believe 0:13:45.480 --> 0:13:47.320 the Rams are going to win this football game. So 0:13:47.520 --> 0:13:50.640 on the money line right now, I'm taking the Rams, 0:13:50.720 --> 0:13:53.760 So Boggs, That's where I've landed after all of this. 0:13:53.760 --> 0:13:55.680 This is where I've come down. I hope that a 0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:58.480 couple plays bounce the other way and I win some money, 0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:00.680 but I just think it the end of the day 0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:03.320 that pass rushes too much for that offensive line. We 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:06.280 saw what happened in Tennessee, and the Tennessee offense is 0:14:06.280 --> 0:14:08.320 not the Rams offense. The Rams offense can put some 0:14:08.360 --> 0:14:10.520 points on the board. So that's where I'm at right now. 0:14:10.679 --> 0:14:12.160 Where do you land on the money line? 0:14:12.480 --> 0:14:14.680 This is such a hard game to pick. I feel 0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:17.880 like it's a good one, you know, because like you said, 0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:22.200 I think the biggest mismatch of this game is that 0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:25.360 Bengals offensive line versus the Rams defensive line. 0:14:25.360 --> 0:14:27.040 I think that is the biggest one you'll see. 0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:29.960 But I also think that the way Matt Stafford has 0:14:30.360 --> 0:14:33.400 not been protecting the ball guy led the league in 0:14:33.400 --> 0:14:38.200 interceptions right versus the secondary that has been making plays 0:14:38.680 --> 0:14:39.600 for Cincinnati. 0:14:40.760 --> 0:14:42.480 I think that's a big mismatch too. 0:14:43.280 --> 0:14:46.280 Just personally, I mean, just a woozy A has been 0:14:46.280 --> 0:14:49.920 playing great baits and Von Bell and even Eli Apple 0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:53.240 had a decent game last week, although he is you know, 0:14:53.480 --> 0:14:54.440 going to get torched. 0:14:54.440 --> 0:14:55.400 He didn't have a decent game. 0:14:55.440 --> 0:14:57.560 He made a big play, now, I guess I should 0:14:57.760 --> 0:15:00.400 I should rephrase that he may. He may a big 0:15:00.440 --> 0:15:03.200 play that tackle right before the half, of course being 0:15:03.240 --> 0:15:06.640 the big play that he made. But you know, and 0:15:07.160 --> 0:15:10.720 you have to give Cincinnati the edge as far as 0:15:10.720 --> 0:15:14.520 the kickers go, if this comes down to a kicking game, matt'stat. 0:15:14.520 --> 0:15:16.640 Matt Gay has been playing a little bit nicked up 0:15:16.680 --> 0:15:19.520 with this coin injury. You know, had some shaky kicks, 0:15:19.640 --> 0:15:23.440 missed a kick, and Evan McPherson is just you know, 0:15:24.560 --> 0:15:28.520 he is so fun, incredible. Unless he's Scott Norwood's this, Uh, 0:15:28.720 --> 0:15:30.080 you know, I think he's. 0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:31.600 I don't think he's got that in him. I don't 0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:34.080 think he's got that gear. He doesn't know failure. This kid, 0:15:34.120 --> 0:15:35.680 he's amazing, He's so much right. 0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:38.000 I mean, look, it could be a fifty eight yard 0:15:38.040 --> 0:15:39.640 er to tight it or something, and he misses that. 0:15:39.680 --> 0:15:41.360 No one's gonna blame him for that, you know. 0:15:41.440 --> 0:15:44.280 But I mean if he misses anything shorter than fifty 0:15:44.280 --> 0:15:47.800 in this game, you know, especially if it's a clutch situation, 0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:50.320 that's it's a bad spot to live in as a 0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:52.600 kicker for the rest of your career. So you know, 0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:57.440 you can have all those big AFC Championships, divisional matchup moments, 0:15:57.480 --> 0:15:59.480 but if you choke in the super Bowl, nobody's gonna 0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:02.080 care what you do. So you know that that's something 0:16:02.080 --> 0:16:04.320 that I'm sure he's thinking about. But I think you 0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:08.480 give Cincinnati, you know that you give them that they 0:16:08.520 --> 0:16:11.560 have the better special teams units. So I just don't 0:16:11.600 --> 0:16:15.120 think that Cincinnati's gonna be able to overcome this offensive line, 0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:18.200 this defensive line from the Rams. And I think that 0:16:18.400 --> 0:16:21.040 is why I'm going to take the Rams in this 0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:23.640 game and lay the four points like you said. 0:16:23.480 --> 0:16:25.320 I okay, now you're gonna lay Now. That was my 0:16:25.400 --> 0:16:28.640 next thing was, I'm taking them to win outright, You're 0:16:28.680 --> 0:16:30.320 taking them with the points as well. 0:16:30.400 --> 0:16:31.560 I'm gonna lay the points too. 0:16:31.680 --> 0:16:34.320 Yeah, okay, I'm gonna go on the other side. I think, 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:37.760 like most Super Bowls typically speaking, everybody comes out a 0:16:37.760 --> 0:16:41.320 little flat in that first quarter, and to me, that 0:16:41.680 --> 0:16:44.680 affects this game into two ways. Number One, it affects 0:16:44.720 --> 0:16:46.760 the four and a half, which I'm gonna take the 0:16:46.760 --> 0:16:49.760 Bengals side of that because I do think that they 0:16:49.760 --> 0:16:52.800 can get this close, especially because if the Rams have 0:16:52.800 --> 0:16:55.320 to settle for a three here and there, they have 0:16:55.360 --> 0:16:57.480 that McPherson guy who can keep it very close. At 0:16:57.480 --> 0:17:00.800 the end of the day, I'm looking at probably more 0:17:00.880 --> 0:17:02.920 like a twenty four to twenty game. I think that 0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:06.320 is a very reasonable final score, you know, somewhere in 0:17:06.400 --> 0:17:09.320 that range right where. I think we're in that range potentially. 0:17:09.840 --> 0:17:13.400 So at the end of the day, that hook means everything. 0:17:13.920 --> 0:17:16.639 So I think the Cincinnati side of this one is 0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:18.680 where I want to be. And then the over under 0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:20.600 the forty eight and a half. Again, I also kind 0:17:20.600 --> 0:17:21.879 of like the under in this game. 0:17:21.760 --> 0:17:24.199 And just just to get you where the percentages, by 0:17:24.240 --> 0:17:26.160 the way, just real quick. You can also you can 0:17:26.200 --> 0:17:28.000 get the hook in some spot still, but I know 0:17:28.040 --> 0:17:30.439 like DK has moved to four, so. 0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:32.720 Which is different. It's the hook that to me is 0:17:32.720 --> 0:17:35.280 the most important, and where I can get the half 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:39.639 is where I want the Bengals, obviously, But to me, 0:17:39.720 --> 0:17:42.399 when you're looking at where the money's gone on the 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:45.600 money line, you've got fifty nine percent of the money 0:17:45.680 --> 0:17:49.760 surprisingly is actually on the Bengals. Fifty seven percent is 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:52.280 on the Bengals against the spread there plus four and 0:17:52.320 --> 0:17:55.240 a half, and then the over under is actually on 0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:57.760 the over at forty eight and a half, which is 0:17:58.200 --> 0:18:00.960 pretty interesting because I I feel like the only thing 0:18:00.960 --> 0:18:03.159 that I agree with there is the Bengals in the 0:18:03.200 --> 0:18:05.679