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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Mellman of the Action Network. Today is

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Speaker 1: our week twelve Tuesday episode. We're going to break down

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Speaker 1: the entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss our

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Speaker 1: exec decision, which candidly I have been struggling with since

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Speaker 1: I started doing my research on Monday. We will discuss

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Speaker 1: our sign and says. We'll start to narrow down the

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Speaker 1: options for the faves five for the five phaves to

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Speaker 1: put into our Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro

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Speaker 1: Football Pick Them contest. We went three and two this

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Speaker 1: past week. That's on me. I'm going to own it.

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Speaker 1: We had talked all week about liking the Chargers, loving

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Speaker 1: the Chargers. We were way ahead of the market on

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Speaker 1: this professional Betters. We're all over the Bengal. It really

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Speaker 1: came down to the Chargers and Browns in our conversations.

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Speaker 1: I wanted the Browns. Simon, one of the Chargers. He

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Speaker 1: acquiesced because I said it would be good for the show. Ultimately,

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Speaker 1: he knew I would be embarrassed. Alas, here we are

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Speaker 1: coming off of a three and two week instead of

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Speaker 1: four and one. Turns out four and one is probably

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Speaker 1: better for the show than three and two and me

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Speaker 1: having chosen the wrong team. Live from our Tommy John

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Speaker 1: Holmes Studios, I'm joined as always by my co host,

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Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, Michael Padre, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello,

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Speaker 1: so I'm in.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Chad, I definitely Jake pauled you on Sunday Night.

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Speaker 2: I pulled some punches you were Mike Tyson. I pulled

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Speaker 2: punches just because of what happened with the Bears. I

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Speaker 2: felt so bad. You didn't need me to pile on.

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Speaker 2: I was just like, I'll let this go because Chad,

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Speaker 2: he doesn't need this right now. But we're onto a

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Speaker 2: new week. This is gladyat your two week. Everyone knows

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Speaker 2: the movie Gladiator two is coming out this week. That's

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Speaker 2: all that really matters, Chad. So let's move on to

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Speaker 2: the best week of.

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Speaker 1: The year, Big Weekend. I have friends who loved the

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Speaker 1: original Gladiator.

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Speaker 2: I love it. I've watched it one hundred times, so

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Speaker 2: have I.

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Speaker 1: I loved it so much. I have friends who named

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Speaker 1: their kids Maximus.

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Speaker 2: In no way, what's their last I can't say that probably,

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Speaker 2: but if you have the right last name, that can

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Speaker 2: be a sick name. Maximus, Yeah, the right last name.

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Speaker 1: It's a great name. He goes by Max. In a moment,

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Speaker 1: we will recap the results of week eleven in our

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Speaker 1: contest and announce the winner of our big weekly cash prize.

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Speaker 1: If you haven't yet, still time you can win weekly

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Speaker 1: cash prizes. Sign up for the free Favorites Podcast one

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest, presented by

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Speaker 1: our sponsors BET three sixty five. Visit Favorites dot actionnetwork

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Speaker 1: dot com as a reminder of the Favorites podcast Like

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Speaker 1: I Said is presented by Bet three sixty five and

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Speaker 1: now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get one hundred

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Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used

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Speaker 1: on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,

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Speaker 1: it's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five must be

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Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and

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Speaker 1: older on Kentucky gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned

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Speaker 1: restrictions apply Congratulations to Week eleven first place winner Ty

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Speaker 1: Schalter tie went five and er missed the Monday night

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Speaker 1: football tiebreaker by just four yards. That is that is tough,

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Speaker 1: So he takes home our one thousand dollars weekly prize.

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Speaker 1: Well done tie. As always, Producer Matt Mitchell have selected

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Speaker 1: his Producer's Cup Award to the entry that finished dead

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Speaker 1: fucking last in this contest.

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Speaker 2: Have you loads loser?

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Speaker 1: He's a loserbout he still kids on time. This week's

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Speaker 1: Producer Cup goes to i McGuire seventy nine went on

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Speaker 1: to five and missed the tiebreaker by three hundred and

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Speaker 1: thirty yards on the guire, email our producer at podcasts

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Speaker 1: at actionnetwork dot com to claim your prize. Finally, reminder,

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Speaker 1: it's legit. We have a new Favorites Live event to

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Speaker 1: announce plan on at the time. Why are you not

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Speaker 1: at the time. This is not why we've been talking

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Speaker 1: about it. It's time to RSVP, folks. That is respond

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Speaker 1: very promptly, CIVO play the date. It's about three weeks

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Speaker 1: from today, Thursday, December twelfth, Philadelphia, Center City, Philadelphia, Prime location.

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Speaker 1: It's beautiful the Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philadelphia. We'll

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Speaker 1: do drinks, we'll do a live Q and A with

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Speaker 1: me and Simon. Matt Mitchell's going to be there too,

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Speaker 1: six pm to eight pm. Basically, we're having a happy hour.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna have a few drinks, we're gonna talk about betting,

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Speaker 1: and then we're all gonna hang out and we're gonna

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Speaker 1: watch the Rams and the forty nine Ers. It is

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Speaker 1: free to get in. Check out the link and either

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Speaker 1: the podcast description page or the YouTube episode description. Simon

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Speaker 1: and I will tweet it out as well. You must

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Speaker 1: RSVP listen. Space is going to be limited, and the

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Speaker 1: events we've had in the past have been loaded right,

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Speaker 1: and so please RSVP December twelfth, get there, all right,

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Speaker 1: Simon's time for Week twelve. First game on the board.

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Speaker 1: Our favorite team, the Pittsburgh Steelers. They're visiting the Cleveland Browns.

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Speaker 1: It opened it for we immediately thought it was too

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Speaker 1: high and we immediately thought, simon, thank god, we don't

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Speaker 1: have to put this in the contest, because we knew

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Speaker 1: we'd have to bet the Browns. The wise guys have

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Speaker 1: bet the Browns. It's down to three and a half.

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Speaker 1: What are you seeing? What are you hearing? What are

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Speaker 1: you feeling?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they like this spot for the Browns, and it's

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Speaker 2: just it's tough for me because you just said, I

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Speaker 2: just love this Pittsburgh team. They've been so good to

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Speaker 2: us and they're so gritty and unlike Cleveland. They're a

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Speaker 2: well coached that's playing hard Pittsburgh And maybe it's because

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Speaker 2: it's a short week. You know, they just played a

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Speaker 2: brutal battle against that Ravens team. I mean that was

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Speaker 2: really a game that no team should have to play

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Speaker 2: a short week after that type of game. Right, And

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Speaker 2: on the flip side, this Cleveland team probably stopped trying

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Speaker 2: midway through the third quarter, so they're not as banged

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Speaker 2: up as it's Pittsburgh team. So it is interesting that

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Speaker 2: they we talked about the professionals, they came in heavy

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Speaker 2: on this. This was four and a half five when

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Speaker 2: it opened, and now it's down, like you just said,

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Speaker 2: a three and a half in most books. So you know,

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Speaker 2: look in the action app right now, all the money,

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Speaker 2: all the tickets you just said, it's all on Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 2: So that's that's real respective professional money coming and moving

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Speaker 2: that number when all the money is on the other side.

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Speaker 2: So you're right. I'm happy we can avoid it. But

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Speaker 2: if you're doing a pickpool like we do, I'm taking Cleveland.

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Speaker 2: But I'm not happy about it. But it just seems

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Speaker 2: like the right spot to back this team the way

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Speaker 2: they match up, right, it's good, but it also Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 2: This feels a little bit like the peak. This feels

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Speaker 2: like a nice time to step off, just because we've

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Speaker 2: been riding these last couple of weeks and the value

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Speaker 2: finally feels like it's coming around the other way. So

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Speaker 2: I'll take those good number three and a half.

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Speaker 1: Four.

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Speaker 2: If you're lucky out there on this Cleveland team.

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Speaker 1: Well, look as good as Mike Tomlin is as a dog,

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Speaker 1: and we rode that train. We got a lot of

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Speaker 1: gravy on that train with Mike Tomlin as a dog, right,

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Speaker 1: But his record as a favorite and as a favorite

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Speaker 1: on the road is the mirror of how good he

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Speaker 1: is as an underdog and as an underdog in tough

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Speaker 1: spots like he was last week. So this has to

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Speaker 1: be a play on Cleveland if you want to play

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Speaker 1: this game yet in the hook. Home teams on Thursday

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Speaker 1: Night Football eight and three this year included the fight

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Speaker 1: in Philadelphia Eagles last week, which I was at. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: I like the Browns looked terrible against the Saints. We

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Speaker 1: love well, we I love the Rounds against the Saints.

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Speaker 1: The wise guys love the Browns. Yeah, against the Saints,

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Speaker 1: it seemed like the right.

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Speaker 2: Spot looks like they can't quit them.

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Speaker 1: They're hard to quit. But look, you're not wrong. Like

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Speaker 1: the Steelers are a really well coached team, the Browns

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Speaker 1: right now are not. And that defense is nothing like

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Speaker 1: it was last year. So as always, it's a risk

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Speaker 1: buyer beware. Indeed, Kansas City and Carolina. Carolina is an

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Speaker 1: eleven point underdog at home double digit favorites five and

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Speaker 1: against the spread this year, including the Detroit Rock City Lions,

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Speaker 1: who we had as our big balls bet of the

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Speaker 1: week last week. So of course, like we said on

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Speaker 1: Sunday that we have to take the Panthers if not

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Speaker 1: for the contest. Then just in real life, the Lions

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Speaker 1: moved to Scoche. You know, eleven and a half to eleven?

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Speaker 1: Have you bet this game?

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Speaker 2: I bet it, but I bet it was err confidence.

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Speaker 2: I bet it just because of the number, right, Like

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Speaker 2: I think this should be eight and a half. It's

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Speaker 2: all way up to eleven. My model has been wrong

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Speaker 2: about Carolina basically all season, so I'm trusting it once again.

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Speaker 2: But it's like, do you have confidence betting this number?

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Speaker 2: Probably not. We're betting arguably the worst team of football

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Speaker 2: against arguably the best team on football, and they're coming

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Speaker 2: off a loss, their first loss this season. But me

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Speaker 2: and you just we both look at this Chiefs team

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Speaker 2: is they're they're good, but they're not blow team out good.

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Speaker 2: And if they do blow you out, it's really going

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Speaker 2: to be We got burned by brace Young once again.

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Speaker 2: That's the reason I'm not so confident put this one

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Speaker 2: in because it's like he's covered two straight one too straight, right,

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Speaker 2: and then went into his bye week. It's it's not

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Speaker 2: ideal for a guy that's barely tasting any success to

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Speaker 2: be feeling himself after three weeks now playing the World champs.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I wouldn't mind passing on this one. But

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Speaker 2: me and you, I don't know. By Thursday, we could

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Speaker 2: be suckered into it. But I just it's just the number.

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Speaker 2: It's such a good number of great value on this

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Speaker 2: this Carolina team that we've just seen him. Mahomes plays

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Speaker 2: with this food. He does not blow teams out, He

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Speaker 2: plays down to his competition level, and he usually plays

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Speaker 2: close games his big favorites.

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Speaker 1: Well, look, it's a weird week because I don't know

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Speaker 1: about you, and I haven't seen a ton of numbers

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Speaker 1: that scream to me value value value.

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Speaker 2: Wow, another way, I love this week's interesting. All right, Well,

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Speaker 2: it's gonna be a good week. I feel bad for

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Speaker 2: the public this week. It feels like they're about to

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Speaker 2: get slaughter.

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Speaker 1: All right, good, I'm glad. I'm glad you feel that way.

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Speaker 1: This game is the only one to me where it

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Speaker 1: feels like it's it's inflated based on what the ratings

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Speaker 1: should be, not based on I got a hammer that

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Speaker 1: the Panthers here. You know, I can just envision, you know,

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Speaker 1: Bryce Young walking into the facility with the backpack that

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Speaker 1: hangs down to the back of his knees and his

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Speaker 1: little bobble Head and he's watching film. He's like, Oh, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think I can see how how we can beat

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs because we did it against the Giants, and

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Speaker 1: we did it the week before, and so I think

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Speaker 1: we got a real shot here. And then you look

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Speaker 1: at the matchup and forget about the over inflation. Really,

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Speaker 1: the one thing, the only thing the Panthers have been

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Speaker 1: better than average at this season is running the ball,

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Speaker 1: and they're blocking has been good, Truebahabbard's been good. Expectations

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Speaker 1: are that the running game might improve this week. I

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Speaker 1: think that rookie from Texas might play this week. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: Jonathan Brooks, Yeah, Jonathan Brooks. But that's what the charge

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs are amazing at. We saw this past week

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Speaker 1: like the Bills couldn't run.

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Speaker 2: The ball, No, and so actually they did our running.

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Speaker 2: But I agree, it's it is one of the chief strengths.

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Speaker 2: But there's a reason this total is forty one and

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Speaker 2: a half, right, that's where you're kind of getting at. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean this is a crazy load total for and

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Speaker 2: again it's why we can't avoid this number. That's such

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Speaker 2: a load total. And so the game was there's not

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Speaker 2: gonna be that many points, So we're getting eleven points.

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Speaker 2: It's just the books know what they're doing. They know

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Speaker 2: we can't help ourselves, and they're protecting themselves against the

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Speaker 2: ten point teasers. That's why this number is so huge.

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Speaker 1: Patrick mahomes forty seven percent against the spread if the

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Speaker 1: line is more than three, If the line is more

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Speaker 1: than ten, thirty nine percent against the spread in twenty

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Speaker 1: five games, if it's more than ten on the road,

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Speaker 1: are you ready? Oh? Three and one?

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Speaker 2: Jeez?

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Speaker 1: Does that make you want to put onto the contest

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Speaker 1: a little bit more? Here's what I'm gonna do. No,

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Speaker 1: but here's what I'm gonna do.

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Speaker 2: It makes me happy. I bet it that I didn't

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Speaker 2: get scared off by it.

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Speaker 1: I'm just making a note, Carolina plus eleven. I want

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Speaker 1: to see if we get any like, you know, wise

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Speaker 1: guy calls, if we get any sharp calls from this.

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Speaker 2: Now, they're going to be on it. I can already

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Speaker 2: tell you they're going.

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Speaker 1: To be, Like but how aggressive? How comfortable? Because I

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Speaker 1: can't find any of the matchup reasons, Like We've come

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Speaker 1: to a consensus here, like if we're going to bet

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Speaker 1: an ugly dog, we at least want them to be

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Speaker 1: graded something. It's why we've been riding the Colts this

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Speaker 1: year and we've been winning with that. I don't see

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Speaker 1: them being great or anything. Uh, all right, Minnesota at Chicago.

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Speaker 1: I'm so excited to talk about this one. Open at five,

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Speaker 1: immediately move to three and a half. As of noon today,

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Speaker 1: it's down to three. Remind people, I don't know if

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Speaker 1: you even remember this. Do you remember what you told

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Speaker 1: me on Sunday night regarding what the wise guys were

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Speaker 1: saying about Caleb Williams that I supported what they were

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Speaker 1: seeing based on what I saw, But what did they

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Speaker 1: tell you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Like, I was at the book and I've said,

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Speaker 2: I'm not watching. There's certain games I'm watching because the

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Speaker 2: way the TVs are and that was not a game

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Speaker 2: I was really focused on. And you know, the guys

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Speaker 2: that did watch it, they loved what they saw from

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Speaker 2: Caleb Williams. Chicago effect. He's paying freer And we talked

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Speaker 2: Sunday night. I just was like, Okay, if guys I respect,

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Speaker 2: I know we're gonna put down decent money on this team,

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Speaker 2: are going to move this number. It's going to keep moving.

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Speaker 2: And that's what we've seen, right. We joked Sunday night

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Speaker 2: or I didn't joke, but I said grab the three

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Speaker 2: and a half because this is going to get the

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Speaker 2: three was gonna probably make him assignment, says if I

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Speaker 2: still could get three and a half at bat three

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Speaker 2: sixty five, but that's gone. There are some books out

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Speaker 2: there you can't get it.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, a lot though it's getting painted pretty quickly.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it just feels like again, there's a couple games

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Speaker 2: we're gonna talk this week. It's a very pros versus

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Speaker 2: Joe's week, and this is another one of the games.

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Speaker 2: Just like Carolina, this is all professional money right now

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Speaker 2: on this side where it's all public money coming in

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Speaker 2: heavy on Minnesota. So yeah, this is a game where

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Speaker 2: I want that three and a half though, chat, do

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Speaker 2: you hear where I'm coming from? We here with this matchup,

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Speaker 2: it's like I kind of want that three and a

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Speaker 2: half just because it is a divisional game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess what I'm thinking about the bear. I

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Speaker 1: completely agree with you. I just why is what professional

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Speaker 1: vetters saying they saw with Caleb Williams in this game?

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Speaker 1: Why is that not an overreaction to just one game,

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Speaker 1: Like it was a very different defense that he faced

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Speaker 1: on Sunday versus what he will face against Minnesota for

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Speaker 1: the very first time, right, and like this defense, it's

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Speaker 1: it's pretty predictable. They've gotten lit up by quarterbacks who

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Speaker 1: can handle pressure, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and they've dominated

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Speaker 1: the quarterbacks who can't, Joe Flacco, Mac Jones, Will Levis.

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Speaker 1: What is Caleb Williams in this scenario? Right? Is he

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Speaker 1: more Flacco? Is he more Levis? Or is Stafford? And Golf?

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Speaker 1: Like I don't get from one game a sample size

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Speaker 1: in which he still completed fewer than seventy five percent

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Speaker 1: of his passes and no touchdowns doesn't leaps off the

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Speaker 1: page to me, is yeah, he's ready for Brian Flores.

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Speaker 1: Very confusing defense that looks like it's coming at you

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Speaker 1: and then drops into coverage that is fair.

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Speaker 2: But he has he has like we talked about all Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think he just plays better at home and we've

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Speaker 2: it's kind of proven out this season. He's feel more

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Speaker 2: comfortable at home, the offense runs better at home, and

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Speaker 2: in this matchup. I think the books are agreeing with

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Speaker 2: everything you just said, but it's both sides, like they

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Speaker 2: think Sam Darnold's going to struggle in this match as

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Speaker 2: well against this Bears defense. I mean this opened at

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Speaker 2: forty one. It's already down to thirty nine and a

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Speaker 2: half at most books this total. So the professionals love

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Speaker 2: the Bears and they love the under and I kind

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Speaker 2: of agree with them, Like this matchup to me for

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Speaker 2: this Bears team. We've been talking about this Vikings team

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Speaker 2: all season. They've been winning on defense. The Bears for

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Speaker 2: the most part, we can agree they've been winning on

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Speaker 2: defense this year too. Yeah, the offense, the games they

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Speaker 2: show up, that's the games they've won because for the

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Speaker 2: most part, their defense has kept them in every game

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Speaker 2: and every time they played. So yeah, this this defense,

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Speaker 2: I think could give problems to the Vikings offense. But

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Speaker 2: it's also like I totally get you're coming from. Like

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Speaker 2: now that we're talking about Brian Floors versus Caleb Williams,

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Speaker 2: it's not ideal, like this guy is going to give

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Speaker 2: so many exotic blitz looks, it's going to really throw

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Speaker 2: his head for a loop. But we just saw it

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Speaker 2: last week where it's like they tried blitz and they

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Speaker 2: tried to give him crazy looks and they really had

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Speaker 2: nice counters to all of that, like they were doing

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Speaker 2: quick passes for him, which is what he's comfortable with.

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Speaker 2: Like he has really good receivers one on one right,

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Speaker 2: even though Dunesay was winning one on one. So I

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Speaker 2: think he's starting to realize it's like he doesn't need

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Speaker 2: these long downfield plays and hold on the ball for

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Speaker 2: more than three four seconds, take the quick hitters and

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Speaker 2: move the ball metrically down the field. It's just it's

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Speaker 2: something he struggled with earlier in the year, and I

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Speaker 2: think someone gave him a good talking of, like, dude,

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Speaker 2: you're not going to win twenty yards at a time here,

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Speaker 2: Like you got to take the five to six when

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Speaker 2: you can. And that's what he's really adjusted to you

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Speaker 2: last week. So I agree with you, though it's it's

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Speaker 2: not ideal taking it. That's why I went the three

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Speaker 2: and a half because I just think that's that's the

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Speaker 2: smart number here. But I also wouldn't be scared off

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Speaker 2: taking the three because that's still a good number.

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Speaker 1: I feel like the three is a line in the sand, right, Okay,

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Speaker 1: we just can't, like, why would let's get the hook.

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Speaker 1: If we're gonna do it, let's get the hook. Sam

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Speaker 1: Darnold has completely turned into a pumpkin. Could not score

358
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Speaker 1: against Indy a couple of weeks ago, could not score

359
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Speaker 1: against Jacksonville a couple weeks ago. He was fine against Tennessee,

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Speaker 1: but he completed just sixty two percent of his passes.

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Speaker 1: He had three passes that it counted three completions that

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Speaker 1: accounted for more than forty percent of his two hundred

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Speaker 1: and forty six passing yards. He had three really long

364
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Speaker 1: passes between Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson that accounted for

365
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Speaker 1: about one hundred and fifteen yards, and everything else was

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Speaker 1: dank dnk dnk, doc dink doc, you know, five yards

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Speaker 1: at a time against a good Tennessee defense. Also fumbled

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Speaker 1: twice and the Titans got out of that game. We

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Speaker 1: talk about the luck rankings all the time. Titans had

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Speaker 1: been unlucky, like they've had a couple plays and penalties

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Speaker 1: on touchdowns and on interceptions and on fumbles that they

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Speaker 1: were covered that were then called back. Not a great

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Speaker 1: look him to give you the for the vikings and

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Speaker 1: Sam Darnold. One stat that is flying around on the

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Speaker 1: Chicago Friends text chain. Shout out to my lifelong friend

376
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Speaker 1: Andy Goodman for sending it the Bears on Sunday had

377
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Speaker 1: a seventy one percent chance to win. In the past

378
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Speaker 1: three seasons under Matt Eberflus, they've had five different games

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Speaker 1: in which they had a ninety chance of winning. It

380
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Speaker 1: just continues to show you how terrible this guy is

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Speaker 1: as a coach, and that the end of that game, thinking,

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Speaker 1: all right, I'm good at forty six when he's got

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Speaker 1: a little kicker. Everyone knows his trajectory on those longer

384
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Speaker 1: kicks is to hit a line drive. Because he's not

385
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Speaker 1: great at forty five plus What a fucking idiot, honest.

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Speaker 2: So he's going to make someone happy being a DC.

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Speaker 2: I think he is a good defensive coach. You're right,

388
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Speaker 2: Like some guys, they just can't do both, and he

389
00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:47,639
Speaker 2: cannot do both. He just does not make the smart decision,

390
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Speaker 2: especially when the pressure is turned way up.

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Speaker 1: Can I interest you in the Dallas Cowboys plus ten

392
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Speaker 1: at the Washington Commanders?

393
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Speaker 2: No, got no interest in it. Me neither.

394
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Speaker 1: I wanted to so bad. I wanted to find a way.

395
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Speaker 2: When we can talk about the game, like, obviously it's

396
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Speaker 2: a huge number, and you know, Jane Daniels hasn't looked right,

397
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Speaker 2: but it's like this Commander's team. What we've seen from

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Speaker 2: this year is they're a really good team, and this

399
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Speaker 2: after playing a really tough Pittsburgh team then playing a

400
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Speaker 2: really tough Eagles team, this is the type of team

401
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Speaker 2: they should just beat the shit out of them. So

402
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Speaker 2: I got no interesting that the number makes sense. It

403
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Speaker 2: should be up to this point, Like if it's either

404
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:31,440
Speaker 2: Cooper Rush or Trey Lance, neither guy are you consistently

405
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Speaker 2: excited about on third down? Like, if it's third down,

406
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Speaker 2: if it's more than five yards, do you really think

407
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Speaker 2: they're gonna make that completion. That's that's the way I

408
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Speaker 2: view their offense right now. They're just it's just a

409
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Speaker 2: lost season for the Cowboys and just yeah, if you're

410
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Speaker 2: someone like us, you bet they're under and didn't believe

411
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Speaker 2: them this season. Sure it's great, but it's like we

412
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Speaker 2: know the deal. It's they had major issues coming to

413
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Speaker 2: the season, and then once Dak got hurt, that's that's

414
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Speaker 2: the end of it. So it's like, you know, every

415
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:00,680
Speaker 2: team has seasons from hell. This is the definition of

416
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Speaker 2: a season from hell from this Cowboys team. I don't

417
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Speaker 2: think have they not won a game yet this season?

418
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Speaker 2: At home?

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Speaker 1: Chad they haven't won a game. So I was watching

420
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Speaker 1: the game last night, my kid pointed this out to me.

421
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Speaker 1: They haven't won a game of home at home this year,

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Speaker 1: literally in the calendar year, because remember they got blown

423
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Speaker 1: out by the Packers in the playoffs. Yeah, right, and

424
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Speaker 1: they haven't won this season.

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Speaker 2: And that was in the regular season. They didn't lose

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Speaker 2: a regular season game, right, that was like the crazy

427
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Speaker 2: part last year.

428
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Speaker 1: The roof is literally caving in a Jerry world.

429
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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: A note to keep in mind about Jadon Daniels. You

431
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:41,800
Speaker 1: just said he's been struggling. So I went back and

432
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 1: I did some research and looked at some games he

433
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:48,000
Speaker 1: had the four game stretch he was completing like eighty

434
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:51,480
Speaker 1: percent of his passes. He has yet to complete more

435
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 1: than seventy percent of his passes since then. He has

436
00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 1: especially struggled against good defenses Steelers Eagles. So as we

437
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:05,520
Speaker 1: get further into the year and we see when he's

438
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:08,920
Speaker 1: matching up against these top tier defenses, that's something I

439
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:12,119
Speaker 1: think we got to definitely keep an eye because I

440
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 1: still think they're gonna win this game, and their number

441
00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:17,639
Speaker 1: is automatically going to be inflated because the public is

442
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:20,479
Speaker 1: still so enamored with him. They're going to believe that

443
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:23,080
Speaker 1: he's still the world beater he was the first month

444
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:23,480
Speaker 1: of the year.

445
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, and we predict it though, It's just we'd never

446
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 2: seen anything like it before. It was never going to continue.

447
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:32,440
Speaker 2: We kept saying that eventually it was gonna fall off

448
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 2: the other way, and uh, yeah, that's It's a long

449
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 2: and brutal season. That's why always talk with the kids

450
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,879
Speaker 2: come out of college, like, you know, they play what

451
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,640
Speaker 2: twelve games in the regular season, and then I guess

452
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 2: they play the playoffs. Now, yeah, when you start hitting

453
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 2: that wall at week ten eleven, you're just like, man,

454
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 2: we still got seven more games to go. It's a

455
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,240
Speaker 2: real thing that these rookies run into. So yeah, Jane

456
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,239
Speaker 2: Daniels still the odds on Big Favorite. I think bon

457
00:23:57,359 --> 00:23:59,679
Speaker 2: Nick's probably came on here. I looked soon his odds

458
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,400
Speaker 2: are for Rookie of the Year. I think it's still

459
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 2: plus four hundred. So obviously the book's still giving a

460
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:07,959
Speaker 2: ton of respect to Jane Daniels.

461
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:12,480
Speaker 1: I really want to find a way to be on

462
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:18,439
Speaker 1: the Patriots. The numbers Miami minus seven dropped from seven

463
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 1: and a half. Miami's on a two game win streak,

464
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 1: Like I did do little research yesterday. Home division phaves

465
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,680
Speaker 1: between seven and nine and a half, just fifty percent

466
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 1: against the spread the past twenty years, but in the

467
00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 1: AFC East fifty five percent. However, by you laughing.

468
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:41,680
Speaker 2: No, it's just crazy.

469
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:45,720
Speaker 1: Twenty nine of those wins for the AFC East between

470
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 1: the Patriots and the Bills, so you kind of discount

471
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,639
Speaker 1: that that as a factor. I just thought it was

472
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:57,160
Speaker 1: interesting that that number seemed high when I looked at it,

473
00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 1: and then you dig a little deeper and it'say, oh yeah,

474
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 1: it's because the Patriots dominated as favorites of seven or

475
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 1: more in the division for twenty freaking years, which.

476
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 2: Not against Miami like that was that was a nice

477
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 2: gift to us for a long time where anytime Tom

478
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:15,479
Speaker 2: Brady the boys would go down there, some weird voodoo

479
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 2: would happen and they wouldn't just lose to like them

480
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 2: as big dogs, like it would be the weirdest lose

481
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 2: loss ever. I mean, the one that really popsmated. Everyone

482
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 2: remembers that gronk mistackle and then run that ball, and

483
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 2: it's right, there's just like a bunch of weird things

484
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 2: that happened that Brady Air where it's like anyone else,

485
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 2: the Bills, the Jets, Brady killed him, but when he

486
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 2: went down to Miami, weird things would happen. And you're right,

487
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 2: this number we liked Sunday Nights seven and a half.

488
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 2: It's moved down to seven if we still get contests.

489
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,160
Speaker 2: Seven and a half very tempting. Like I'd rather put

490
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 2: this in the Panthers, I tell you that much. I'd

491
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 2: rather be pissed off that we took a rookie on

492
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 2: the road in this spot than taking that Carolina team.

493
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:54,720
Speaker 2: So it's like there's a couple of ugly dogs. I

494
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 2: like this week, and this is a dog I'm comfortable

495
00:25:57,640 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 2: just because we've seen a week in week out, this

496
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:02,159
Speaker 2: Patriots team has no quick and a number this big.

497
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 2: We get to Miami team that we don't fully trust him.

498
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 2: Even last week we kind of talked about how that

499
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 2: game was gonna go right. The roof was open, the

500
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,160
Speaker 2: Raiders were in black, they were gonna keep it close,

501
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 2: and then somehow they would just fall Apart from that

502
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:16,400
Speaker 2: heat in the second half, they started making dumb decisions.

503
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:19,359
Speaker 2: That's it looked like it happened like that Raiders team

504
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 2: completely fell apart in that second half and they got rolled.

505
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:24,200
Speaker 2: I think Miami end up putting thirty one on them,

506
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:27,640
Speaker 2: Like they really did dominate in that game. So yeah,

507
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 2: this this feels like a spot yet, like it feels

508
00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:33,400
Speaker 2: like a number one play. We'll putting our money line

509
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:35,919
Speaker 2: around Robin Like. I just like divisional games like this,

510
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 2: especially when the Patriots have shown us that they're just

511
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:41,679
Speaker 2: no quit in this team. And with Drake May running

512
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 2: the ball right, that's been the biggest difference. He's so athletic.

513
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 2: The defense has to account for that, having to have

514
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 2: a guy step up and they can't cover the middle

515
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:50,680
Speaker 2: of the field. That's a big deal for a kid

516
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 2: like him that needs a pass the ball downfield. So yeah,

517
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:55,399
Speaker 2: you're right, we went to seven and a half. We

518
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 2: might only be able to get the seven, brother, but

519
00:26:57,080 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 2: I'd still take it here.

520
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 1: You know, it's interesting in my notes, I wrote down,

521
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:09,439
Speaker 1: don't we think the Fins are frauds? Like there's nothing

522
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 1: I watched them and I don't feel any confidence watching them.

523
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:16,400
Speaker 1: I felt like the Rams gave the game away two

524
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 1: weeks ago into his return. Yeah, I felt like they

525
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 1: let the Raiders stay in it until the very end.

526
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 1: Didn't need to. They're fancy with their motion. They're getting

527
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 1: Tyreek more involved, They're getting Jalen Waddle more involved. They're

528
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 1: better with two obviously.

529
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:35,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I was gonna say. I think two

530
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 2: is the difference. I think he's still a top fifteen,

531
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:40,639
Speaker 2: top twenty guy where it's like he's not going to

532
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 2: be changed the world. You see in that offense with

533
00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:46,879
Speaker 2: timing routes. He is good and like us, throws on

534
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 2: certain plays. But I'm with you. I just they're definitely

535
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 2: not the team they were last year in any measure.

536
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 1: Drake May his offensive line is ring thirty first in

537
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:59,400
Speaker 1: pass blocking, and he is kept in his team in games,

538
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,880
Speaker 1: played well enough to scare us, even saving us once

539
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,439
Speaker 1: this season. But I don't know about you, but like

540
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 1: we had the Rams minus four and a half on Sunday,

541
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:12,960
Speaker 1: and when Drake May had the ball at the end,

542
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:18,399
Speaker 1: I did not feel super confident that he wasn't going

543
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 1: to drive them down the field. I actually felt like,

544
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:26,159
Speaker 1: oh fuck, this kid got moxie and he makes plays.

545
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was more of like fuck this Patriots team,

546
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 2: they better not get another one. I can't deal with

547
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:36,640
Speaker 2: them having another guy after Tom Brady like Mac Jones.

548
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:39,880
Speaker 2: Mac Jones, that makes sense. That's what you guys should

549
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 2: be going through. Just shitty quarterback for the next twenty years.

550
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 2: If this kid's the real deal, that would have killed me.

551
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 2: If you would have drove that field that Rams team,

552
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:48,960
Speaker 2: Chad oh Man, that I would have been like, God,

553
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 2: damn this Patriots team. But they once again found another guy.

554
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 2: But luckily he is mortal. He threw a pick. He

555
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 2: ain't the chosen one.

556
00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 1: He is impressive, though, I don't mind betting on him.

557
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 2: He's good, but he's I'm just saying like that would

558
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 2: have been terrifying if that kidd drove that field against

559
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:06,240
Speaker 2: that Rams team.

560
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 1: Tennessee at Houston. Houston is now an eight point favorite.

561
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 1: One has moved up since last night from seven and

562
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:17,840
Speaker 1: a half to eight. So you know, I just gave

563
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:21,080
Speaker 1: you the stat Home Division phase seven to nine and

564
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 1: a half, just fifty percent against the spread the past

565
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 1: twenty years. How much credit did we want to give

566
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 1: the Texans for beating up on the Cowboys? Not much.

567
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 1: CJ was relatively unspectacular, in fact, had some pretty ugly throws.

568
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 1: I don't hate the Titans.

569
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 2: Now I'm on the other side. I like Houston. Like

570
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 2: this numbers you do ten? Yeah? Who the fuck has

571
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 2: been in Tennessee? Give us a ten? Sports books? What

572
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 2: is this number? I think they're one and nine against

573
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 2: the spread this season. I could be wrong, but I

574
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 2: just want Will Levis is terrible. He's horrible. And that's

575
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 2: the issue here. It's like Houston, they're actually a good team.

576
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 2: Like we talket coming to the year, they were a

577
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 2: team at the very end before this season, I got

578
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 2: scared out. I was just like, all right, I'm on Houston,

579
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 2: just because you look at this team on paper and

580
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,720
Speaker 2: they're really good. There was a difference that game. The

581
00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 2: biggest difference we talked about the Nico Collins effect that

582
00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 2: he opens up the whole field and Joe Mixon can

583
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 2: do Joe Mixon things. And we've seen that now when

584
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 2: Nico Collins plays the safety, stayed back and Joe Mixon

585
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 2: just plays better. And in this matchup, you know, even

586
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,479
Speaker 2: if the run is tough, we've seen the Tennessee as

587
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:25,600
Speaker 2: good as their defenses, there's ways to attack it and

588
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 2: teams have been doing it all season. Right, it's the

589
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:30,320
Speaker 2: big plays downfield. So he's got tanked out, he's got

590
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 2: Nico Collins his two big play receivers. That's a good

591
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 2: matchup for Houston. On the flip side, I don't think

592
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,000
Speaker 2: the books have corrected enough. Like watching that Tennessee game

593
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 2: last week, Minnesota gave him every opportunity to be in it,

594
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 2: and this kid could not complete passes. He like he's

595
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 2: either thrown a deep touchdown or it's three and out.

596
00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 2: Like there is no in between with him. He is

597
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:53,520
Speaker 2: He's out of this league after this year. He's not.

598
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 2: He's not a quarterback that's gonna last. He's just he's terrible.

599
00:30:57,520 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 2: They're gonna keep rolling them out there because what we

600
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 2: always talk about, like, let him play it out. If

601
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 2: he shows you something eventually, okay, maybe you bring him

602
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:05,239
Speaker 2: back next year. But then he gets you a good

603
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 2: draft pick and you're drafting a guy. So Tennessee, to me,

604
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 2: we talked this team, there's bad teams this year, and

605
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 2: after last week, I've realized there really are teams that

606
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 2: are just giving up already, even though we're not even

607
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 2: a Thanksgiving yet. You're just seeing these bad teams not trying,

608
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 2: and Tennessee feels like one of them. So I'm not

609
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 2: putting any money on them, I'd bet Houston or I

610
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 2: just stay away, So.

611
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 1: I think I'm maybe I'm biased. I forget about Will

612
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 1: Levis for a second. They had so many bad things

613
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 1: happened to them in that Vikings game. That continues to

614
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 1: make me feel like with that defense, and I have said,

615
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 1: I don't believe the superficial stats Tennessee Titans allowing the

616
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 1: few as yours per game. That's kind of bullshit, Like

617
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 1: those things don't mean anything in terms of how you're

618
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 1: analyzing these games. But they like, they had plays in

619
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 1: that game where huge plays were called back because of

620
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 1: stupid mistakes they made, because the penalty is whatever. So

621
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 1: that's why I'm a little hesitant to go rankings.

622
00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 2: Chad. We did a whole thing this summer with Nick Giffen.

623
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,680
Speaker 2: It's about the coaches, as much as you want to

624
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 2: say it comes down to luck. Rankings, we realize pretty quickly, Oh,

625
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,760
Speaker 2: Tomlin's not lucky. He's not the luckiest coach ever. He's

626
00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 2: a great fucking coach. Dennis Allen, he's not the most

627
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 2: unlucky coach ever. He's a terrible coach for that Saints team.

628
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 2: So it's like, I think that was my biggest takeaway

629
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 2: from the luck rankings is you obviously need luck as

630
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 2: a coach. Everyone does. But some of these guys are

631
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:38,440
Speaker 2: just bad. And this right now, this Tennessee team is

632
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 2: so bad. So I get where you're coming from, brother,

633
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 2: but it's just we just keep getting burned on by

634
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 2: him and we keep going back to the well. And

635
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 2: it's just every week we can say, oh, they had

636
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 2: a little bit of bad luck here and there, it's like, no,

637
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 2: they're just a poorly coach team that's got a horrible quarterback.

638
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 1: All right, well, then we'll pass on this one. I

639
00:32:57,320 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 1: mentioned at the top of the show Simon that we

640
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 1: are to our listeners live from our Tommy John Home studios.

641
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:07,959
Speaker 1: We are heading into late November. It's the regular season

642
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:12,120
Speaker 1: stretch run for the NFL. We want you, our dear listeners,

643
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 1: to give the gift that helps your loved ones stretch

644
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 1: and run, the gift of Tommy John. Black. Friday is

645
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:25,000
Speaker 1: just over a week away. We need to start thinking

646
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 1: about the people on our holiday lists, the men and

647
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 1: women we love, those who deserve the perfect gift, the

648
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 1: perfect fit, and the confidence that comes only when you're

649
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 1: fully supported, which is how we feel under two circumstances.

650
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 1: When I'm with you and when I'm wearing my Tommy

651
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 1: John underwear. Simon, why will you be giving the gift

652
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 1: of Tommy John this season?

653
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 2: It's a gift that lasts.

654
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:56,600
Speaker 1: That's right. The Black Friday sale has begun. If you're

655
00:33:56,640 --> 00:34:00,160
Speaker 1: looking to score your gifts early, go to tom me

656
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 1: John dot com slash favorites for thirty percent off right now.

657
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:08,720
Speaker 1: Save thirty percent sight wide for Black Friday at Tommy

658
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 1: John dot com slash favorites. That's thirty percent off for

659
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 1: a limited time at Tommy John dot com slash favorites.

660
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:21,200
Speaker 1: If you guys, don't think I'm going all in on

661
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:24,400
Speaker 1: Tommy John for the holidays, Matt Mitchell is getting a

662
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 1: quoted pullover. He's gonna be so excited, all right, Simon.

663
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 1: Detroit at Indie Indie plus seven and a half. These

664
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:36,399
Speaker 1: are our two favorite bet On teams of the year.

665
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 1: They're playing each other. It's like Sophie's freaking choice here.

666
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 2: You know.

667
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 1: Detroit Can't Stop Covering is a big favorite. Indie Can't

668
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:46,000
Speaker 1: Stop Covering as an underdog. We win with both of them.

669
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:51,360
Speaker 1: Practically every single week. One of these teams has to

670
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 1: cover on Sunday. One of these teams can't cover on Sunday.

671
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 1: Which one will it be?

672
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 2: I wanted to take the Colts. I think, like you said,

673
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:01,480
Speaker 2: I think I'm blind to this team that I leve them.

674
00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:08,720
Speaker 2: I think the right side is Detroit. They're just they're

675
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:11,399
Speaker 2: the better team and they're just playing at a higher

676
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:15,960
Speaker 2: level right now. And you know, the Colts, I'm happy

677
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 2: for them that that was a big win against that

678
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:19,919
Speaker 2: Jets team. Me and you said, we thought that Jets

679
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,840
Speaker 2: quit three weeks ago and they have not won a

680
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 2: single game since firing their head coach Sala. So we

681
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:28,839
Speaker 2: throw that game out. Now you have Anthony Richardon going

682
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 2: against the best team in football according to sports books.

683
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:35,319
Speaker 2: The odds on favor in the Super Bowl this is

684
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 2: under ten. Shouldn't we take it like this was like

685
00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 2: we're getting a good number, and I know, like this

686
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 2: is usually a spot. Me and Chad go for the Colts.

687
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 2: We talk the Lions are breaking the rules right now.

688
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:47,360
Speaker 2: We are going to fade them. There are divisional games

689
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:50,279
Speaker 2: coming up that's gonna be nice numbers and good matchups,

690
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:53,319
Speaker 2: and we always talk divisional games are just different. This

691
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:56,720
Speaker 2: ain't that this is ad division indoor against the Colts

692
00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:59,919
Speaker 2: defense that can't stop anything. I mean what Aaron Rodgers

693
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:02,960
Speaker 2: up twenty seven points last week? I mean, yeah, come on,

694
00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 2: So not gonna overthink this one. Going with the chalk

695
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:09,480
Speaker 2: once again, going with Joe Public. I'll take the lines

696
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 2: on minus seven and a half. It has been years

697
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:15,040
Speaker 2: since the Detroit crowd has been this excited about the Lions.

698
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 2: Talk about rescoring the roar.

699
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:22,279
Speaker 1: Listen to him. Yeah, we got to ride one of

700
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 1: these waves one way or the other. I'm much more

701
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:27,279
Speaker 1: comfortable that. I'm glad you came to that conclusion. I

702
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:29,400
Speaker 1: came to the same conclusion this morning doing a lot

703
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:32,319
Speaker 1: of the research. The big thing that worries me all

704
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:36,399
Speaker 1: the time about the Lions is their defense, and you know,

705
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 1: how are they going to perform. They don't have a

706
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:45,160
Speaker 1: pass rush at all without Aiden Hutchinson. But I'm not

707
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 1: sure that matters very much against the Colts, because Anthony

708
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:51,759
Speaker 1: Richardson's strength is going to be finding ways to get

709
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 1: outside the pocket and use his legs if he is pressured.

710
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:57,759
Speaker 1: And then the one thing that really sticks out to

711
00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:01,640
Speaker 1: me is how good the Lions have been at forcing

712
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 1: turnovers this season? Right, and so They've been phenomenal at

713
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:11,480
Speaker 1: forcing turnovers this year. I read this in Bill Barnwell

714
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:16,400
Speaker 1: in his excellent column on ESPN dot com. They have

715
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 1: forced takeaways on just over sixteen percent of opposing drives

716
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:25,920
Speaker 1: sits since Aden Hutchinson was injured. That's the fifth highest

717
00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:31,840
Speaker 1: rate of any unit. Their secondary has just become elite.

718
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 2: Right.

719
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:38,160
Speaker 1: The turnovers that they are generating, they're coming from Kirby Joseph,

720
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:41,920
Speaker 1: They're coming from the play of Brian Branch Like. This

721
00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 1: secondary has just been amazing. And since Hutchinson went down.

722
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:52,719
Speaker 1: While they're not perfect on defense, they've allowed offenses to

723
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:56,840
Speaker 1: convert just thirty one percent of their third down opportunities,

724
00:37:57,280 --> 00:38:01,840
Speaker 1: third best in the NFL, the red zone fifth best

725
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 1: since Hutchinson went down. They're tightening up the back end.

726
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 1: They're tightening up in the spots that matter. We're going

727
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:17,279
Speaker 1: with the lines. Tampa Bay at the New York Football Giants. Boy,

728
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:22,359
Speaker 1: let me give you the pattern since Sunday night, Are

729
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:28,359
Speaker 1: you ready? The Bucks were favored by three, then they

730
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 1: were favored by four, Then they were favored by three

731
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:34,960
Speaker 1: and a half, then four, then three and a half,

732
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 1: then four, then four and a half, then five, then

733
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:43,720
Speaker 1: five and a half, and this was before Brian Dayball

734
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:49,800
Speaker 1: announced Daniel Jones had been benched in favor of Tommy DeVito.

735
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:54,920
Speaker 2: Had to know, right, Yeah, yeah, no people know.

736
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:57,719
Speaker 1: Are you saying that? You say that with confidence?

737
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:02,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, just because the betters always no before the public.

738
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:07,360
Speaker 2: It's all a game. There's always leaks, especially organization like

739
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:09,359
Speaker 2: the Giants, who are not well run right now, right

740
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 2: they're one of the easier teams the leak. Yeah, this,

741
00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 2: we were gonna take the Giants now, it's like, how

742
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:19,480
Speaker 2: do you not take Tampa, like Tommy DeVito against this

743
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:23,399
Speaker 2: Tampa team, Come on now, come on now. But it's

744
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 2: like we could get Vito magic. Maybe some magic will happen.

745
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:29,760
Speaker 2: He will somehow cover this game. But it's still under six.

746
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 2: I don't hate that. If you want to take this number,

747
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:33,359
Speaker 2: it's not a game. Mean, you were probably gonna take

748
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 2: like I'd much rather obviously take some other favorites we've

749
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:39,360
Speaker 2: already talked about than this one. But yeah, this number

750
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:42,080
Speaker 2: to me hasn't moved enough. I'd still take Tampa as

751
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:43,479
Speaker 2: long as it's under six. Right now.

752
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 1: I kind of like the Giants more with Tommy DeVito.

753
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:51,080
Speaker 2: That's fair. I got no argument for it. I mean,

754
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:53,520
Speaker 2: that's that's how bad Daniel Jones has been this year.

755
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 1: But it's Alisa Gifford. Let us know that there were

756
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:03,400
Speaker 1: report to Mike Evans practiced on Monday.

757
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:07,959
Speaker 2: That'd be a big deal so he could be back. Yeah,

758
00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:11,640
Speaker 2: but no, Let's move on. There's better dogs this week.

759
00:40:12,160 --> 00:40:13,280
Speaker 2: Stay away from this one.

760
00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:18,840
Speaker 1: Denver at Las Vegas. The Raiders are five point underdogs.

761
00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 1: This is another one. Moved up three and a half, four,

762
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:23,439
Speaker 1: four and a half, five, five and a half, got

763
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:25,400
Speaker 1: some buyback at five and a half, and then it

764
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 1: went back up to from five to five and a half.

765
00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 1: Let me give you a stat. Road favorites off of

766
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:38,160
Speaker 1: a blowout win forty five against the spread since two

767
00:40:38,200 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 1: thousand and four, and this, by the way, has been

768
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:45,880
Speaker 1: an ROI loser since two thousand and seven. Betting on

769
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:49,279
Speaker 1: the road favorite after a blowout win has lost you

770
00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 1: money every single year for the past seventeen years. What

771
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 1: do you think of that? Yeah?

772
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 2: Pretty simple, right, Like, don't overthink it. You're supposed to

773
00:40:57,480 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 2: take the Raiders here, and if it wasn't for those

774
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:02,520
Speaker 2: stats about these divisional dogs not cash and this would

775
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:06,120
Speaker 2: be an auto five for me and you. But because

776
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 2: this is I mean Denver off a blowout, this is

777
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 2: peak like them covering against the Chiefs. We already knew

778
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 2: last week was gonna be a little hyped up, but

779
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:18,520
Speaker 2: they completely dominated that Falcons team. I mean, Michael Pennox

780
00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:21,319
Speaker 2: came in what the third maybe early fourth, Like they

781
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:25,919
Speaker 2: threw the white towel in pretty early. So yeah, I'm

782
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:28,600
Speaker 2: happy another game. I'm happy to stay away from. Just

783
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:32,759
Speaker 2: I get why you're people are betting Denver. I totally

784
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:36,240
Speaker 2: understand the movement. This Raiders team look like they simply

785
00:41:36,320 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 2: quit last week against that Miami team, and that was

786
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:41,279
Speaker 2: them coming off of bye week, and it's just like,

787
00:41:42,640 --> 00:41:44,600
Speaker 2: whatever whatever went on early in the year with the

788
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:47,719
Speaker 2: head coach, he totally lost that locker room like early on,

789
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:49,600
Speaker 2: and that team is not kind of reality around them.

790
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 2: I know they've had injuries too with Max Crosby and

791
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 2: you know Wilkins, but you know, I just I can't

792
00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 2: get there. Brother. I don't know if you liked this

793
00:41:57,560 --> 00:41:59,840
Speaker 2: Raiders spot, but I just have no interest making this

794
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:00,520
Speaker 2: one five.

795
00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:03,279
Speaker 1: I don't love the like. The only trend I like

796
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:07,480
Speaker 1: is fading the Bronco. Fading the Broncos off a blowout,

797
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:10,359
Speaker 1: but I don't like anything else about it, And there's

798
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:13,799
Speaker 1: nothing about the Raiders that makes me feel comfortable that

799
00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:16,719
Speaker 1: I can hang my hat on. In fact, the thing

800
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 1: they seem to be the best at is turning the

801
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:22,080
Speaker 1: ball over, and so you know, like I just have

802
00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 1: this vision of the Raiders are down by ten driving

803
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:32,560
Speaker 1: late Gardner Minshew, who has already lost four fumbles on

804
00:42:32,600 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 1: the year, which is second most in the NFL. He's

805
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:39,880
Speaker 1: got thirteen total turnovers this season, which is top five

806
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 1: in the NFL. He sacked and stripped at the Broncos

807
00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:48,960
Speaker 1: twenty yard line with two minutes left in the game.

808
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:52,360
Speaker 1: Like that's you know, sometimes you can see the back door,

809
00:42:52,400 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 1: like with Drake May, I can feel like I see

810
00:42:56,239 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 1: that back doors open. Yeah, Gardner Minshew, I feel like

811
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:02,879
Speaker 1: he's the one who walks up to the open door

812
00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:06,040
Speaker 1: and says, hey, guys, guys, guys, you left the door open.

813
00:43:06,719 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 1: Let's all be cognizant of the ac let's not let

814
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:11,919
Speaker 1: the heat outside the house. And he's the one who

815
00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:12,640
Speaker 1: closes the door.

816
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:13,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, sounds right.

817
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:19,840
Speaker 1: San Francisco with green Bay. Green Bay is now a

818
00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 1: two and a half point favorite. This is interesting to

819
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:24,880
Speaker 1: me because you flagged this one on Sunday night. San

820
00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:27,680
Speaker 1: Francisco was a one and a half point dog, and

821
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 1: if I'm not misremembering, you liked San Francisco as a

822
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 1: one and a half point dog.

823
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:35,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought it'd be a nice Bilo spot. But

824
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:39,040
Speaker 2: obviously with the party injury, it's it's different, like he's

825
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:43,720
Speaker 2: got a bad shoulder, you know, if he's out, Like yeah,

826
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:46,640
Speaker 2: like I almost cheated and made this, Simon says, because

827
00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:48,799
Speaker 2: it's like, why not grab this number now because if

828
00:43:48,840 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 2: he is out, this goes way up, right, this goes

829
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:54,320
Speaker 2: up to four or five, maybe even six if Perty's

830
00:43:54,320 --> 00:43:56,719
Speaker 2: out of this matchup. So yeah, it was just a

831
00:43:56,760 --> 00:43:58,160
Speaker 2: game i'd like because I was like, I could see

832
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:00,200
Speaker 2: this line flip. It would be a nice by Low

833
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:02,880
Speaker 2: spot on this four n Iro team. But yeah, with that,

834
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 2: with that news, I've I've only made two bets right

835
00:44:05,080 --> 00:44:06,719
Speaker 2: now in this game that's just been on green bed

836
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:08,839
Speaker 2: bet in win those two bet when again it got

837
00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:10,239
Speaker 2: two and a half because I thought, okay, this might

838
00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:13,160
Speaker 2: keep going up with Perty's out. If he's back, I'm

839
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:14,840
Speaker 2: happy to buy in my position if I really like

840
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:17,319
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers here. But yeah, this is a

841
00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:19,759
Speaker 2: game where if you're gonna bet it early, I would

842
00:44:19,800 --> 00:44:22,840
Speaker 2: just bet Green Bay to be safe because if Perty

843
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:24,360
Speaker 2: is a tough son of a bitch, if he's missing

844
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 2: practices or he's limited this week, it's gotta be something

845
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:30,560
Speaker 2: pretty damn serious. So definitely something we'll be keeping our

846
00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:33,000
Speaker 2: eye on. But kit Kittle apparently will be back this week,

847
00:44:33,040 --> 00:44:35,040
Speaker 2: which again, big deal to me for this four n

848
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:36,560
Speaker 2: i ros team. He's one of the best run blocking

849
00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:38,759
Speaker 2: tight ends, not only the receiver but on the bus

850
00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:39,960
Speaker 2: blocking tight ends and football.

851
00:44:40,360 --> 00:44:42,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, but what about Nick Bosa, Like, I don't know,

852
00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:46,080
Speaker 1: I watched the Yeah, I don't think. I watched the

853
00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:50,200
Speaker 1: Nick Bosa post game and he looked like someone had

854
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 1: run over his dog, right he was answering the questions.

855
00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:58,759
Speaker 1: Kudos to him because he stood up there and was

856
00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:01,840
Speaker 1: not a jerk about answering questions about his oblique and

857
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:04,760
Speaker 1: how much pain he was in and he flat outside.

858
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:10,479
Speaker 1: I'm definitely definitely concerned that I will not be able

859
00:45:10,480 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 1: to play next Sunday. And I felt like and anybody

860
00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:19,440
Speaker 1: watching that game could see what a massive difference between

861
00:45:19,440 --> 00:45:21,279
Speaker 1: when he was in and what Gino Smith could do

862
00:45:21,280 --> 00:45:23,600
Speaker 1: and when he was out and Gino Smith drives the

863
00:45:23,640 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 1: length of the field and scores the game winning touchdown.

864
00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 1: So that's awesome.

865
00:45:28,480 --> 00:45:30,440
Speaker 2: We joke, that's just been Gino this year, Like he

866
00:45:30,600 --> 00:45:34,080
Speaker 2: just he he had He does nothing for the entire game. Also,

867
00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:36,520
Speaker 2: he'll turn it on and these random spots like me

868
00:45:36,520 --> 00:45:38,120
Speaker 2: and you almost got burned that rams game, right, He

869
00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:40,359
Speaker 2: didn't nothing in the two minute drills though. The two

870
00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:44,240
Speaker 2: minute drills really shine for both sides. So yeah, that's

871
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 2: like I just said, if you're gonna grab a number,

872
00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:48,319
Speaker 2: I think it's the Green Bays the number to grab

873
00:45:48,360 --> 00:45:48,759
Speaker 2: right now.

874
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 1: Like, I don't think there's any edge otherwise.

875
00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 2: Major issues right now for the forty niners.

876
00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:55,600
Speaker 1: Between all the injuries, both of these teams feel like

877
00:45:55,719 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 1: they can't quite figure out how to put it all

878
00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:04,439
Speaker 1: together in the same drive, let alone in the same game. Right,

879
00:46:04,480 --> 00:46:08,680
Speaker 1: they're so inconsistent. They'll look amazing doing exactly what they

880
00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:11,880
Speaker 1: should be doing, and then they'll have a random mistake

881
00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:15,400
Speaker 1: that kills a drive. It's an interception, it's a fumble,

882
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:19,120
Speaker 1: it's a holding, it's something stupid, and they're stalled at

883
00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:23,640
Speaker 1: the forty two yard line and they miss a field goal, right,

884
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 1: and so I'm a little nervous about both of these

885
00:46:26,239 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 1: teams with the injuries. I favor the Packers Arizona at Seattle, folks,

886
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:37,360
Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks are one point favorites right now. This is

887
00:46:37,400 --> 00:46:39,120
Speaker 1: why you have to listen to the show on Sunday

888
00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:42,560
Speaker 1: nights though, because the Cards were as much as two

889
00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:46,359
Speaker 1: point dogs on Sunday night when we discussed it, they

890
00:46:46,360 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 1: were down to one and a half. The line actually

891
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 1: flipped to the Cardinals minus one and then flipped back.

892
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:59,920
Speaker 1: We both bet the Cardinals as dogs on Sunday night, Simon,

893
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:04,560
Speaker 1: why is this number back at Seattle minus one? Oh?

894
00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:07,319
Speaker 2: I think we both thought that, like this is good.

895
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:09,520
Speaker 2: This was we said, Arizona is gonna be the public side,

896
00:47:09,600 --> 00:47:12,720
Speaker 2: like who's coming in Ben? That Seahawks team. Everyone feels

897
00:47:12,719 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 2: how we feel that they got really lucky against that

898
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:17,800
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers team last week and that we don't trust,

899
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:22,319
Speaker 2: you know, or this defense and this Arizona team. They

900
00:47:22,400 --> 00:47:24,520
Speaker 2: should be the lead in this division, right They've been

901
00:47:24,560 --> 00:47:26,400
Speaker 2: the best team from start to finish right now in

902
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:27,839
Speaker 2: this division, no doubt about it.

903
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:30,320
Speaker 1: Like, yeah, but the Seahawks are now the favorites again.

904
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:35,600
Speaker 2: Oh okay, in this in this matchup. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

905
00:47:35,640 --> 00:47:38,400
Speaker 2: But Arizona's minus one ten right now for this division,

906
00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:41,400
Speaker 2: so it's you know, I think the fort Nits are

907
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:43,800
Speaker 2: down to plus three hundred of most books for their division,

908
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:47,279
Speaker 2: which is crazy to think. Uh. The Seahawks obviously think

909
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:51,280
Speaker 2: they're dead last. So this is kind of the statement

910
00:47:51,320 --> 00:47:53,319
Speaker 2: game for them this season. Maybe, Chad, maybe that's the

911
00:47:53,320 --> 00:47:55,920
Speaker 2: professional thing here where it's like, Okay, this is their

912
00:47:56,080 --> 00:47:58,400
Speaker 2: this is their season, right. They stole that game against

913
00:47:58,400 --> 00:48:00,280
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers that they can steal this one.

914
00:48:00,640 --> 00:48:02,560
Speaker 2: They can get into the playoffs, like there's a there

915
00:48:02,600 --> 00:48:05,520
Speaker 2: is a path for them. But I don't know. It's

916
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:07,399
Speaker 2: it's hard to like, I just I want I can't

917
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:09,520
Speaker 2: get down the Seahawks. I'll be honest, like, I honestly

918
00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:11,080
Speaker 2: want to be on Arizona in this game or nothing

919
00:48:11,120 --> 00:48:14,840
Speaker 2: at all. And you're right, maybe I could be patient

920
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:16,879
Speaker 2: now because I have a good number on this Arizona team.

921
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:18,640
Speaker 2: I don't need to buy a bad number right now.

922
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:20,960
Speaker 2: But if you're getting plus one and a half on

923
00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:23,440
Speaker 2: Arizona again, I'd take that number because I just said it.

924
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:25,880
Speaker 2: I think it's by kickoff. I just can't I'd be

925
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:28,200
Speaker 2: shocked if Arizona is not a favorite by kickoff. It's

926
00:48:28,280 --> 00:48:31,520
Speaker 2: just everything points to them being the better team this season,

927
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:33,480
Speaker 2: and this isn't that bad of a matchup for them. Now,

928
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:36,840
Speaker 2: maybe some weather something we'll look into, because if it

929
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:40,160
Speaker 2: is bad weather, do I want tiny hands Kyler Murray

930
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:42,799
Speaker 2: handling my football? No, I don't want that. I don't

931
00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:45,759
Speaker 2: want to. I don't like an indoor quarterback outdoors in

932
00:48:45,840 --> 00:48:48,520
Speaker 2: bad weather. So uh, that's something I'll definitely keep my

933
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:51,359
Speaker 2: eye on. So nothing. I can't really think of why

934
00:48:51,400 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 2: the Professor's coming on the Seahawks though, Chat It's it's

935
00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:55,400
Speaker 2: an interesting spot for them because don't we just I

936
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 2: think we both agree we expect it to be a

937
00:48:57,120 --> 00:49:00,280
Speaker 2: letdown spot for them after that emotional win last week

938
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:03,600
Speaker 2: and Arizona come off a bye week. But you know

939
00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:04,879
Speaker 2: they have a read on it.

940
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:10,120
Speaker 1: Fifty one and sunny on Sunday in Seattle. You know what,

941
00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:17,080
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals, They're putting their cards on the table off

942
00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:20,000
Speaker 1: of a bye chance to take a bigger lead in

943
00:49:20,000 --> 00:49:27,480
Speaker 1: the division. Can they prove it to us? Executivy decision time?

944
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:33,919
Speaker 2: Really? Yeah, the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible

945
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:38,360
Speaker 2: text to executive decision.

946
00:49:39,440 --> 00:49:41,480
Speaker 1: Wow, why do you say it like that.

947
00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:44,719
Speaker 2: I don't know there's there's another game you pegged for,

948
00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:45,759
Speaker 2: But okay, I'm with.

949
00:49:45,760 --> 00:49:50,759
Speaker 1: It really hmm. Interesting, all right, I'm surprised you don't

950
00:49:50,800 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 1: love the Cardinals more in this spot I do.

951
00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:55,399
Speaker 2: I just the line move and freaked me out when

952
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:57,560
Speaker 2: it was going favorite. I was like, nice, good call,

953
00:49:57,719 --> 00:49:58,759
Speaker 2: this is the way it should be going.

954
00:49:58,920 --> 00:49:59,279
Speaker 1: You know what.

955
00:49:59,440 --> 00:50:01,680
Speaker 2: I I want to hear from what professionals are buying

956
00:50:01,680 --> 00:50:02,400
Speaker 2: the other side.

957
00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:04,520
Speaker 1: Then, I don't know that they are, like I'm looking

958
00:50:04,560 --> 00:50:08,400
Speaker 1: in the I'm looking at action right now. Tickets on

959
00:50:08,440 --> 00:50:10,320
Speaker 1: the Seahawks, money on the Cardinals.

960
00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:11,640
Speaker 2: Interesting.

961
00:50:12,200 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think people got too excited about the Seahawks

962
00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:20,000
Speaker 1: beating the Niners the way they did, and they forgot

963
00:50:20,000 --> 00:50:21,799
Speaker 1: a little bit about the Cardinals, which I think is

964
00:50:21,840 --> 00:50:25,279
Speaker 1: not uncommon. So we're talking about the public here, like

965
00:50:25,520 --> 00:50:31,320
Speaker 1: very short memories, right. So I'm with the Cardinals. Philadelphia

966
00:50:31,400 --> 00:50:35,000
Speaker 1: at the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are three point underdogs.

967
00:50:35,000 --> 00:50:38,359
Speaker 1: This was one of our stronger positions on Sunday Night.

968
00:50:38,920 --> 00:50:41,960
Speaker 1: You were leaning Eagles two and a half. It was

969
00:50:42,040 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 1: moving in their direction. Brandon Anderson does the excellent hot

970
00:50:46,200 --> 00:50:49,879
Speaker 1: read segment on the Sunday Night Action Network podcast with

971
00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:53,200
Speaker 1: Evan as well. He liked the Eagles at two and

972
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:55,880
Speaker 1: a half. I think there might be a couple two

973
00:50:55,920 --> 00:50:58,520
Speaker 1: and a half's out there. I bet the Eagles at two.

974
00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:02,560
Speaker 2: And a half. Sorry, Chad Simon says, give me the

975
00:51:02,640 --> 00:51:09,879
Speaker 2: Rams plus three. We do what Simon says. I know,

976
00:51:10,320 --> 00:51:12,600
Speaker 2: I love the Rams here, I was. I wanted to

977
00:51:12,600 --> 00:51:13,920
Speaker 2: be on the Eagles. I thought that would be the

978
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:17,560
Speaker 2: right side. But this seems like a total bad letdown

979
00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:20,160
Speaker 2: spot for this Eagles team coming off that divisional win

980
00:51:20,280 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 2: where I don't know about you, but I think herts

981
00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:24,680
Speaker 2: played terrible in that Washington game and they kind of

982
00:51:24,680 --> 00:51:28,920
Speaker 2: got saved by Saquon. Yeah. This this, this is this

983
00:51:29,040 --> 00:51:30,520
Speaker 2: might be me just falling in love with this Rams

984
00:51:30,520 --> 00:51:33,919
Speaker 2: team too much once again. But they're just so good

985
00:51:33,920 --> 00:51:36,520
Speaker 2: offensively when all the guys are there, like everything they

986
00:51:36,520 --> 00:51:39,719
Speaker 2: can do offensively. I just trusted more right now than

987
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:44,160
Speaker 2: I do this Eagles team. And this Eagle secondary has

988
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:48,480
Speaker 2: not been tested against a veteran quarterback with veteran receivers

989
00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:50,680
Speaker 2: like this Rams team has. I just I like this

990
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:53,000
Speaker 2: match with this Rams team. So yeah, that was one

991
00:51:53,040 --> 00:51:54,960
Speaker 2: of those things. I think I just got sucked into

992
00:51:55,040 --> 00:51:57,719
Speaker 2: it because it's like this Eagles team is better this

993
00:51:57,800 --> 00:51:59,799
Speaker 2: RAMS team. This is a nice spot to sell them on.

994
00:51:59,880 --> 00:52:03,080
Speaker 2: Like that was my thought process Sunday. My model makes

995
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:06,200
Speaker 2: us a pick. So it's like this Eagles team apparently

996
00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:09,160
Speaker 2: is crazy overvaled right now just by the general public.

997
00:52:09,239 --> 00:52:12,839
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna take the three free points here. I'll

998
00:52:12,840 --> 00:52:14,520
Speaker 2: take the Rams. Give me the plus three because I

999
00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 2: can just see this getting down to two two and

1000
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:19,400
Speaker 2: a half by kick this. Most professionals I've talked to

1001
00:52:19,480 --> 00:52:22,400
Speaker 2: it's all Rams money right now. Very few that I've

1002
00:52:22,400 --> 00:52:24,759
Speaker 2: talked to it likes the Eagles. So if you won

1003
00:52:24,840 --> 00:52:26,600
Speaker 2: the two and a half on the Eagles, I can't

1004
00:52:26,640 --> 00:52:28,960
Speaker 2: fault you like that to me was my early read,

1005
00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:32,120
Speaker 2: my early lean. But the smart side to me is

1006
00:52:32,160 --> 00:52:34,000
Speaker 2: this plus three. That's where the money should be.

1007
00:52:35,200 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 1: I feel like it's time to walk away from this

1008
00:52:37,640 --> 00:52:41,360
Speaker 1: RAMS team as fast as we can. We have gotten

1009
00:52:41,680 --> 00:52:45,040
Speaker 1: we got beat with the with the Miami game. I

1010
00:52:45,040 --> 00:52:50,120
Speaker 1: think we got very lucky with the Patriots game. And

1011
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:54,680
Speaker 1: if we're looking at those as facsimiles or analogs to

1012
00:52:54,800 --> 00:53:01,000
Speaker 1: what can happen in this Eagles games, can't put it together.

1013
00:53:01,320 --> 00:53:06,520
Speaker 1: They have no consistency whatsoever. And their offensive line, even

1014
00:53:06,560 --> 00:53:11,160
Speaker 1: though everyone's back, has just been fucking awful. Like they

1015
00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:13,640
Speaker 1: didn't get sacked by the Patriots, but they got pressured

1016
00:53:14,000 --> 00:53:18,040
Speaker 1: and they could not finish drives. They could not close

1017
00:53:18,080 --> 00:53:22,279
Speaker 1: that team out. And this Eagles defensive line, I don't

1018
00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:23,839
Speaker 1: know if you watch the Eagles at all, I don't

1019
00:53:23,880 --> 00:53:25,520
Speaker 1: know if like they're one of your teams that you

1020
00:53:25,640 --> 00:53:30,080
Speaker 1: like to pay attention to. They're fierce, and this defense

1021
00:53:30,160 --> 00:53:33,839
Speaker 1: is getting much much better with Vic Fangio and what

1022
00:53:33,880 --> 00:53:37,080
Speaker 1: they did against the Commanders. That's why they won that game.

1023
00:53:37,360 --> 00:53:42,200
Speaker 1: Like Jadan Daniels just he couldn't compete, could couldn't complete

1024
00:53:42,239 --> 00:53:47,680
Speaker 1: passes downfield. So I think this defensive line is going

1025
00:53:47,760 --> 00:53:51,160
Speaker 1: to get so much interior pressure right where Matthew Stafford

1026
00:53:51,719 --> 00:53:53,080
Speaker 1: hates it the most.

1027
00:53:53,920 --> 00:53:57,000
Speaker 2: Trap. Trap, Trap, Trap, Do not bet the Eagles take

1028
00:53:57,040 --> 00:53:59,719
Speaker 2: the Rams. Chad's giving even more reasons to bet this

1029
00:53:59,800 --> 00:54:05,320
Speaker 2: Ram team. Don't don't walk into this trap. The book

1030
00:54:05,360 --> 00:54:07,720
Speaker 2: is laying this one. This is the I'm almost positive

1031
00:54:07,719 --> 00:54:11,120
Speaker 2: this is a Sunday night game. This is literally mirror

1032
00:54:11,120 --> 00:54:13,440
Speaker 2: image of that Bengals game. All that money's all the

1033
00:54:13,520 --> 00:54:16,520
Speaker 2: money's gonna come on this other side, and they're gonna

1034
00:54:16,560 --> 00:54:18,280
Speaker 2: think they're getting a good number and they're just walking

1035
00:54:18,360 --> 00:54:19,640
Speaker 2: right into it. And that's what it feels like with

1036
00:54:19,719 --> 00:54:21,760
Speaker 2: this Rams team. I totally agree with everything you just said.

1037
00:54:22,200 --> 00:54:25,200
Speaker 2: They've been playing possum these last couple of weeks and

1038
00:54:25,440 --> 00:54:27,560
Speaker 2: this is the type of game where they just live

1039
00:54:27,680 --> 00:54:29,640
Speaker 2: up to the moment. I think they roll this Eagles team.

1040
00:54:29,719 --> 00:54:34,240
Speaker 1: So awesome. Yeah, the ram has been playing possome possum.

1041
00:54:34,880 --> 00:54:36,920
Speaker 1: Why you think they're gonna roll the Eagles.

1042
00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:39,279
Speaker 2: I just I think it's a bad spot for this

1043
00:54:39,360 --> 00:54:41,520
Speaker 2: Eagles team. Like it just it feels like a little

1044
00:54:41,520 --> 00:54:43,560
Speaker 2: in between her. They got this game and they got

1045
00:54:43,560 --> 00:54:45,440
Speaker 2: the Ravens on deck, and I feel like they know

1046
00:54:45,560 --> 00:54:48,359
Speaker 2: that this is like this little brutal stretch of their

1047
00:54:48,360 --> 00:54:52,160
Speaker 2: season where they got to split these games. And obviously

1048
00:54:52,440 --> 00:54:54,440
Speaker 2: the number, though is very telling to me, like the

1049
00:54:54,520 --> 00:54:57,040
Speaker 2: fact that I'm looking the action app now and it's

1050
00:54:57,120 --> 00:55:00,759
Speaker 2: just all Eagles money and the tickets and and a

1051
00:55:00,840 --> 00:55:03,440
Speaker 2: couple of smart books I respect right now or popping

1052
00:55:03,520 --> 00:55:08,000
Speaker 2: two's that's very telling. Like if Offshore already goes two,

1053
00:55:08,719 --> 00:55:11,360
Speaker 2: the American books are going to be quick to follow,

1054
00:55:12,600 --> 00:55:13,600
Speaker 2: So grab that three.

1055
00:55:13,800 --> 00:55:18,320
Speaker 1: Simon says, all right, Baltimore at the Los Angeles Chargers.

1056
00:55:18,360 --> 00:55:23,560
Speaker 1: The Chargers are three point underdogs right now. John Harbaugh

1057
00:55:23,760 --> 00:55:26,520
Speaker 1: forty two percent against the spread as a favorite. We

1058
00:55:26,600 --> 00:55:30,080
Speaker 1: know Lamar of three or more thirty four percent against

1059
00:55:30,120 --> 00:55:32,239
Speaker 1: the spread. What do you think we take from that

1060
00:55:32,320 --> 00:55:33,680
Speaker 1: Chargers Bengals game right now?

1061
00:55:34,600 --> 00:55:37,120
Speaker 2: Just that Herbert Man when he's on, like we talked about,

1062
00:55:37,120 --> 00:55:41,160
Speaker 2: he's inconsistent, but when he's on, it's incredible, like he

1063
00:55:41,280 --> 00:55:42,879
Speaker 2: was in that first half and then he took him

1064
00:55:42,880 --> 00:55:44,759
Speaker 2: what a quarter and a half to find it again,

1065
00:55:44,880 --> 00:55:46,560
Speaker 2: Like he got a little little saved by the run

1066
00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:50,880
Speaker 2: game there. But that's we talked about coming of the season.

1067
00:55:50,880 --> 00:55:53,800
Speaker 2: That's my biggest issue with Herbert. It's like one minute

1068
00:55:53,880 --> 00:55:55,960
Speaker 2: he looks like the top three, one of the best

1069
00:55:56,000 --> 00:55:59,000
Speaker 2: quarterbacks in all of football, and then you know he

1070
00:55:59,040 --> 00:56:01,560
Speaker 2: can have quarters where he just has totally go like gone,

1071
00:56:01,600 --> 00:56:03,920
Speaker 2: He's just a ghost. He doesn't really do anything. So

1072
00:56:04,880 --> 00:56:07,160
Speaker 2: that game, though, when just as I thought I would,

1073
00:56:07,200 --> 00:56:09,880
Speaker 2: I thought that the Bengals offensive struggled right away because

1074
00:56:09,920 --> 00:56:12,799
Speaker 2: that Chargers defense would give them some problems. They made

1075
00:56:12,840 --> 00:56:15,040
Speaker 2: an adjustments, They rolled in the second half. I mean,

1076
00:56:15,080 --> 00:56:17,360
Speaker 2: Evan has that crazy stat Herbert, he's one of the

1077
00:56:17,400 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 2: worst second half quarterbacks in all of football against the spread.

1078
00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:22,400
Speaker 2: So thank you Havan. That was an easy winn. I

1079
00:56:22,440 --> 00:56:24,520
Speaker 2: think they were plus seventeen and a half in that

1080
00:56:24,640 --> 00:56:29,680
Speaker 2: second second half. Yeah, this matchup once again. Wanted to

1081
00:56:29,680 --> 00:56:31,440
Speaker 2: be on the Ravens told everyone to take the two

1082
00:56:31,480 --> 00:56:33,200
Speaker 2: and a half. I took the two and a half.

1083
00:56:33,719 --> 00:56:35,200
Speaker 2: I'm gonna get bullied and to have to take this

1084
00:56:35,280 --> 00:56:37,680
Speaker 2: Chargers plus three. It's just it's gonna be one of

1085
00:56:37,680 --> 00:56:39,560
Speaker 2: those things where if it gets a three and a half,

1086
00:56:39,680 --> 00:56:41,480
Speaker 2: I might make it put in our contest where it's

1087
00:56:41,480 --> 00:56:43,439
Speaker 2: like that's gonna be great value on a Chargers team

1088
00:56:43,480 --> 00:56:46,200
Speaker 2: that they do have a really good defense and they

1089
00:56:46,200 --> 00:56:48,560
Speaker 2: could push the ball downfield passing the ball, and we

1090
00:56:48,560 --> 00:56:50,879
Speaker 2: saw Calla Hamilton got banged up once again in that game,

1091
00:56:51,000 --> 00:56:53,920
Speaker 2: and it's like that to me is another reason that

1092
00:56:53,920 --> 00:56:57,480
Speaker 2: it's like I kind of want to sell this Ravens team.

1093
00:56:57,680 --> 00:56:59,319
Speaker 2: And people still think they're one of the best teams

1094
00:56:59,320 --> 00:57:02,040
Speaker 2: of football. Mean, people talking all week, they're like, yeah,

1095
00:57:02,120 --> 00:57:05,200
Speaker 2: they're by far the best seven and fourteen. It's like, yeah,

1096
00:57:05,239 --> 00:57:07,160
Speaker 2: no one's gonna disagree with you. Lamar was the MVP

1097
00:57:07,320 --> 00:57:10,640
Speaker 2: favor head into that Pittsburgh game, but we've seen they

1098
00:57:10,640 --> 00:57:13,680
Speaker 2: do have major weaknesses and it's like they're they're popping

1099
00:57:13,760 --> 00:57:18,680
Speaker 2: up this year and in the Horrball Bowl, I want

1100
00:57:18,720 --> 00:57:21,960
Speaker 2: to take the dog like I do. So, Yeah, this

1101
00:57:22,040 --> 00:57:24,040
Speaker 2: is another game where I just it's all about the number.

1102
00:57:24,040 --> 00:57:26,320
Speaker 2: If this is two and a half, I probably would

1103
00:57:26,320 --> 00:57:28,640
Speaker 2: feel better about taking the Ravens here, but now that's three.

1104
00:57:29,040 --> 00:57:30,480
Speaker 2: I'm hoping it's a three and a half. I just

1105
00:57:30,520 --> 00:57:32,400
Speaker 2: feel like that's where the value is on the Chargers team.

1106
00:57:32,400 --> 00:57:35,040
Speaker 2: They're just to me, this year they've been the better team.

1107
00:57:35,800 --> 00:57:37,800
Speaker 1: Yeah. Actually that's what I put in my notes, Like,

1108
00:57:38,400 --> 00:57:40,320
Speaker 1: if I get two and a half, I probably like

1109
00:57:40,360 --> 00:57:42,360
Speaker 1: the Ravens, and I get three and a half, I

1110
00:57:42,400 --> 00:57:45,960
Speaker 1: probably like the Chargers. At three, I'm not really gonna

1111
00:57:45,960 --> 00:57:48,520
Speaker 1: do anything with it. And the contest, we're gonna have

1112
00:57:48,600 --> 00:57:50,240
Speaker 1: to get a two and a half or three and

1113
00:57:50,240 --> 00:57:53,160
Speaker 1: a half because there's no ties, So I think that'll

1114
00:57:53,200 --> 00:57:56,200
Speaker 1: be dictating what we end up doing. And I do

1115
00:57:56,240 --> 00:57:59,200
Speaker 1: think this is when we end up putting in because.

1116
00:57:58,960 --> 00:58:01,440
Speaker 2: Really a rare Monday night for us, you know, it.

1117
00:58:01,440 --> 00:58:04,960
Speaker 1: Just feels like that half point is going to mean everything.

1118
00:58:05,720 --> 00:58:07,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's how I feel. I feel like this is

1119
00:58:07,120 --> 00:58:08,920
Speaker 2: gonna land right on three. Like it feels like the

1120
00:58:09,000 --> 00:58:11,400
Speaker 2: Ravens win on a last second field go I'll buy

1121
00:58:11,600 --> 00:58:13,480
Speaker 2: a guy who we just should on all week. But

1122
00:58:14,440 --> 00:58:16,000
Speaker 2: that's what makes me nervous. Though about the two and

1123
00:58:16,040 --> 00:58:18,000
Speaker 2: a half, It's like I could see it landing on

1124
00:58:18,040 --> 00:58:20,240
Speaker 2: two and a half too, So it's like, once again,

1125
00:58:20,280 --> 00:58:23,080
Speaker 2: I feel more. I feel more comfortable taking the three

1126
00:58:23,160 --> 00:58:24,240
Speaker 2: or three and a half on the Chargers.

1127
00:58:24,240 --> 00:58:28,520
Speaker 1: I'll be honest, Yeah, I do too, except for the

1128
00:58:28,560 --> 00:58:30,880
Speaker 1: fact that they're so bad in the second half and

1129
00:58:30,920 --> 00:58:33,160
Speaker 1: the only thing that they are, the only thing that

1130
00:58:33,240 --> 00:58:35,880
Speaker 1: is my solace is how bad the Ravens have been

1131
00:58:36,160 --> 00:58:39,320
Speaker 1: in the second half. Yeah, playing pass defense and could

1132
00:58:39,320 --> 00:58:41,960
Speaker 1: that be the cure for whatever? Als? Justin Herbert in

1133
00:58:42,000 --> 00:58:42,840
Speaker 1: the second half.

1134
00:58:43,360 --> 00:58:45,560
Speaker 2: He's gonna get his It's all about can they stop

1135
00:58:45,640 --> 00:58:49,200
Speaker 2: Lamar because we've seen it Like Herbert he can when

1136
00:58:49,240 --> 00:58:50,760
Speaker 2: he can turn it on, he turns it on. Like

1137
00:58:50,840 --> 00:58:52,720
Speaker 2: I have no issue with this offense. Be going to

1138
00:58:52,760 --> 00:58:54,560
Speaker 2: move the ball and score like you just said it.

1139
00:58:54,600 --> 00:58:58,400
Speaker 2: That secondary, especially against quarterbacks who know what they're doing,

1140
00:58:58,920 --> 00:59:01,600
Speaker 2: they're terrible. You take Kyle Hamilton out of the picture.

1141
00:59:01,640 --> 00:59:04,240
Speaker 2: I mean this might be an auto play for us

1142
00:59:04,280 --> 00:59:06,600
Speaker 2: if Kyle Hamilton's out, Like he's been that important to

1143
00:59:06,600 --> 00:59:08,880
Speaker 2: this defense. So once again, this is all about the

1144
00:59:08,960 --> 00:59:12,520
Speaker 2: number three and a half. No, Kyle Hamilton. I agree

1145
00:59:12,520 --> 00:59:14,240
Speaker 2: with you, Chad. I'll make this on Monday Night pick.

1146
00:59:14,720 --> 00:59:16,360
Speaker 1: Did you think I was going to take this for

1147
00:59:16,880 --> 00:59:17,600
Speaker 1: exact decision?

1148
00:59:17,720 --> 00:59:20,600
Speaker 2: I did, cause I just because I was like, not

1149
00:59:20,680 --> 00:59:22,200
Speaker 2: that I knew, not that I was going to bring

1150
00:59:22,280 --> 00:59:24,640
Speaker 2: up how much you love the Chargers on Tuesday show

1151
00:59:24,640 --> 00:59:27,080
Speaker 2: because I'm with you. I actually went back and watched

1152
00:59:27,120 --> 00:59:28,720
Speaker 2: I think some clip popped up on YouTube. It was

1153
00:59:28,800 --> 00:59:30,640
Speaker 2: us breaking down that game, and I was like, how

1154
00:59:30,680 --> 00:59:32,400
Speaker 2: the fuck did Chad not put this one in? Like

1155
00:59:32,600 --> 00:59:35,120
Speaker 2: I loved it, He loved it. So I was like,

1156
00:59:36,120 --> 00:59:38,560
Speaker 2: Chad's definitely gonna take Chargers this week. I think he's

1157
00:59:38,560 --> 00:59:40,400
Speaker 2: gonna go back and take it. But I was wrong.

1158
00:59:40,440 --> 00:59:42,200
Speaker 2: You went with Arizona, which is another team I love,

1159
00:59:42,320 --> 00:59:45,200
Speaker 2: So yeah, this might have being big balls though I

1160
00:59:45,240 --> 00:59:47,680
Speaker 2: wouldn't be shocked this or I don't want to say

1161
00:59:47,680 --> 00:59:49,160
Speaker 2: the other one, but yeah, this one, this one could

1162
00:59:49,200 --> 00:59:50,160
Speaker 2: end up being big Balls.

1163
00:59:50,320 --> 00:59:52,280
Speaker 1: So the reason that we didn't take the Chargers last

1164
00:59:52,320 --> 00:59:56,640
Speaker 1: week is I feel like I ended up getting a

1165
00:59:56,680 --> 01:00:00,520
Speaker 1: little bit scared off by the move. Like we both

1166
01:00:00,600 --> 01:00:06,320
Speaker 1: love the Chargers almost immediately against the Bengals, but all

1167
01:00:06,440 --> 01:00:11,120
Speaker 1: the steam kept coming in on the Bengals and like

1168
01:00:11,240 --> 01:00:14,560
Speaker 1: moving that number, and I'm just like it was similar

1169
01:00:14,600 --> 01:00:17,200
Speaker 1: to how you felt about the Rams, right, where like

1170
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:19,680
Speaker 1: all the money kept coming in on the Patriots. You're like,

1171
01:00:19,720 --> 01:00:23,640
Speaker 1: what am I missing here? And for some reason, I

1172
01:00:23,720 --> 01:00:26,320
Speaker 1: didn't have the same courage of my convictions on the

1173
01:00:26,400 --> 01:00:30,120
Speaker 1: Chargers that I did on the Rams to put it

1174
01:00:30,160 --> 01:00:33,400
Speaker 1: in the contest. And I'm regretful. I'm just regretful.

1175
01:00:34,520 --> 01:00:36,080
Speaker 2: I'm with you, but we'll move on.

1176
01:00:36,960 --> 01:00:39,360
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1191
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1195
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